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EBRD Cuts Growth Forecast For Central & Eastern Europe

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The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, EBRD, has lowered the growth forecast for the Central and Eastern Europe, saying that the "protracted" debt crisis in Europe is adversely affecting the region's growth prospects.

Reports said citing an EBRD statement that the region is expected to expand 3.2 percent in 2012, much slower than the prior estimate of 4.4 percent. The GDP will grow 4.5 percent, compared with the 4.8 percent predicted in July.

The EBRD revised its 2012 forecast for the central Europe and Baltic region to 1.7 percent from the 3.4 percent predicted in July.

The bank's estimates are based on a central scenario of a "protracted but ultimately contained" eurozone crisis, reports said.

 

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ECB's Trichet Stresses On Need To Amend Treaties To Save Eurozone

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European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said that the treaties must be amended so that the authorities can "impose decisions" on countries that put the stability of the monetary union at risk by not complying with the fiscal rules.

In an interview to the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, a transcript of which was published at the central bank's website on Tuesday, Trichet said that it should be possible in future to impose decisions on countries that persist in not complying with the Stability and Growth Pact, thereby putting at risk the stability of Monetary Union.

"In my view, the Treaties would need to be amended to this end," he told the daily.

Asked about the conditions that persuaded ECB to intervene in the bond market, Trichet said that there was a delay during the ratification process of the European Financial Stability Facility, which needed approval of all 17 governments.

Due to this delay, ECB found itself in a situation where it had to intervene in the bond market in order to safeguard the transmission of monetary policy. "We had to act decisively vis-?-vis savers and investors throughout the world."

"But we never act as a substitute for the governments' responsibility and decisions," he said during the interview.

Trichet said that new Stability and Growth Pact is much stricter, although not as strict as all intended. The new one is unlikely to fail as the euro area countries have been made painfully aware of the dangers of constant violation. The most important thing for the ECB is to ensure medium and long-term stability, and it cannot use monetary policy to put right the failings of government policies, he told the newspaper.

 

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Uk Inflation Likely to fall in 2012 says Broadbent

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News

BoE's Broadbentsaid on Thursday that there is possibility of sharp inflation fall in 2012.

He expresses positivity that the euro zone crisis would be tackled, relieving pressure on the supply of retail credit throughout UK banks.

He reiterated that Margins in lending will come down and business conditions would improve

Quotes

"The headline rate will fall back pretty sharply, especially as we get to the new year and VAT rates fall out of comparisons. Inflation will fall in the first part of the next year,"

- BoE's Broadbent

 

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Thai Export Growth Slows Sharply In September

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Thailand export growth eased more than expected in September, data from the Commerce Ministry showed Friday.

Export growth eased to 19.1 percent year-on-year in September from 31.1 percent in August. Economists expected the rate of growth to slow to 21 percent.

Meanwhile, imports grew 41.9 percent compared to 44 percent rise reported in the preceding month. Economists were looking for a 32.6 percent increase.

The trade balance resulted in a surplus of $238.2 million compared to a deficit of $1.2 billion in the previous month. A year ago, the balance was in a surplus of $3.07 billion.

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BoE Broadbent Says Monetary Policy Cannot Fully Offset Euro Crisis Fallout

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Monetary policy can offset the fallout from a potential Eurozone burst up "only to some extent," Bank of England policymaker Ben Broadbent told the Financial Times.

"To some extent, but I think only to some extent," he said in an interview published late on Sunday. The scale of the debt crisis mean that "one cannot offset them."

Broadbent said the central bank's decision to expand the asset purchase by GBP 75 trillion was not precise.

Denying that there was any limit to the total amount of quantitative easing the central bank could do, he said "the limit is what the correct policy is."

 

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Euro Off Recent Lows Against Dollar And Yen

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The euro recovered from its late Asian session's slide against the dollar and the yen ahead of the European deals on Tuesday as a survey report showed that Germany's consumer confidence is set to rise in November.

Meanwhile, the euro is also trading higher against the pound and the franc.

According to a survey carried out by the market research group GfK, the forward looking consumer sentiment index rose unexpectedly to 5.3 for November from 5.2 in October, survey data showed Tuesday. Economists were expecting the index to dip slightly to 5.1 points.

At present, the euro is worth 0.8714 against the pound, 105.98 against the yen, 1.3927 against the dollar and 1.2277 against the franc.

 

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Eurozone Leading Index Drops Further In September: Conference Board

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Eurozone's leading economic index declined further in September, data from a survey by the Conference Board showed Wednesday.

The leading economic index (LEI) decreased to 105.9 in September from 106.7 in August, which was lower than July's reading of 108.1.

Meanwhile, the coincident economic index (CEI), which measures the current economic situation, edged up to 103.7 in September from August's reading of 103.6. In July, the reading was 103.4.

In the six months ended September, the leading index declined 2.6 percent, while the coincident index moved up 0.8 percent, the agency said.

"The LEI for the Euro Area fell sharply in August on the back of a severe deterioration in business confidence and stock prices which continued in September," Jean-Claude Manini, the Conference Board senior economist for Europe, said. "The sovereign debt crisis and the uncertainty concerning its resolution are beginning to dampen current economic activity and the immediate outlook."

 

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EU Banks May Require EUR 106 Billion Under Recapitalization Plan: EBA

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The European banks would be required to raise EUR 106 billion as capital under the new recapitalization plan agreed by EU leaders at yesterday's summit, the European Banking Authority (EBA) said Thursday.

Under the plan, banks are required to establish a buffer such that the Core Tier 1 capital ratio reaches 9 percent. Banks will be expected to build these buffers by the end of June 2012. The EBA said that it expects to disclose the final capital shortfall by November.

Spanish banks need EUR 26.2 billion and Italian banks require EUR 14.8 billion in core tier 1 capital, according to EBA. French and German banks must raise EUR 8.84 billion and EUR 1.58 billion respectively, EBA said in a statement.

Greek banks will need an extra EUR 30 billion of capital, though this was covered by an existing aid program.

Banks will be required to submit their plans detailing the actions they intend to take to reach the set target to their respective national authorities by the end of 2011. These plans will have to be agreed with National Supervisory Authorities and discussed with the EBA, according to the statement.

The targets will have to be achieved avoiding excessive deleveraging, while they are expected to withhold dividends and bonuses to attain the target, the statement said.

The capital needs should be met only with capital of the highest quality. For private instruments, only new issuances of very strong convertible capital will be accepted if in line with strict and standardized criteria to be defined by the EBA, the EU's banks watchdog said.

 

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European Economics Preview: French Consumer Spending Data Due

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Consumer spending from France is the only major statistical report due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.45 am ET, French consumer spending for September is due. Economists expect spending to fall 0.7 percent annually, following a 0.3 percent rise in August. On a monthly basis, spending is forecast to remain flat.

Spain's statistical office INE is set to release flash inflation data at 3.00 am ET. The Flash HICP inflation is seen at 2.9 percent in October, down from 3 percent in September. In the meantime, the jobless data is also due.

Hungary's unemployment figure is also due at 3.00 am. The jobless rate is forecast to fall to 10.7 percent in September from 10.8 percent in August.

Sweden's retail sales and manufacturing confidence survey reports are due at 3.30 am ET. Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.3 percent month-on-month, offsetting last month's 0.3 percent fall. Manufacturers' confidence reading is seen at -5 in October, down from -3 in September.

At 4.00 am ET, Italy's hourly wages data for September is due. It had increased 1.7 percent year-on-year in August. Norway's NAV unemployment figures are also due at the same time.

The Swiss KOF institute is scheduled to issue leading index at 5.30 am ET. The index is forecast to fall to 1 in October from 1.21 in the prior month.

 

 

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Schauble Wants EU To Take Global Lead In Introducing Tobin Tax: Report

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The European Union must take the lead role in introducing the financial transaction tax to curb speculative trade, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble told the Financial Times.

During the interview, the minister said that in addition to the harmonized monetary policy, Europe needs stronger institutions to oversee the implementation of a commonly agreed finance policy.

He also urged the European leaders to take the next big steps towards a "fiscal union." The implementation of the tobin tax must be accompanied by tougher regulation of big banks and the "shadow" banking sector, such as hedge funds, Schauble told the newspaper.

Even if the UK disapprove on such a tax in the full EU, the Eurozone should press ahead on its own, the minister said. Any failure to reach agreement on tougher financial regulation by the G20 at the Cannes summit this week should also not stop Europe acting alone, he said.

"I am convinced that if we introduce a financial transaction tax in the EU, then the chances of getting a global agreement will increase enormously." he told the daily. On Italy, Schauble said that the country must solve its own problems by cutting the debt and balancing its budget as promised.

Italy still has work to do," he said. "The stability of the euro requires that the big member states must live up to their own responsibility."

The Euro summit last week mounted pressure on Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to implement the announced budget cuts swiftly and effectively. In an interview to Corriere della Sera over the weekend, Berlusconi said that the Parliament must understand that the country will continued to get the support from the European Central Bank only if it implements the planned measures. "There is no room for games or tactics."

He said that the current legislature in Italy will last until 2013. "Only I and my government can achieve this reform program for 18 months, which is why there is no way for me to stand aside," Berlusconi told the newspaper.

Interest rates on 10-year Italian bonds rose to a euro-era record on Friday, reflecting market skepticism that if Italy can deliver on its pledge to cut spending and balance its budget by 2013.

The commitments made with the European Union at the summit will be presented on November 9 and 10, Berlusconi told Corriere della Sera.

 

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Amended: UK House Prices Rise For Second Month: Nationwide

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Corrects the story to show that the latest annual increase is the first since March.

Residential property prices in the United Kingdom increased for a second consecutive month in October, results of a survey by Nationwide Building Society showed Tuesday.

The house price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent on a monthly basis in October, following a 0.1 percent increase in September. Economists expected prices to remain unchanged.

According to Nationwide Chief Economist Robert Gardner, house price growth is likely to remain soft in the period ahead.

On an annual basis, house prices increased 0.8 percent following a 0.3 percent drop during the preceding month. This was the first increase in prices since March. Economists had called for a 0.5 percent annual increase.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the average house price in U.K fell to GBP 165,650 from GBP 166,256 in September.

 

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European Economics Preview: German Unemployment Data Due

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Unemployment from Germany and final Purchasing Managers' survey results from Eurozone are the major reports due on Wednesday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 3.00 am ET, Ireland's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index is due.

Hungary's producer price figures are due at 4.00 am ET. Economists forecast producer prices to rise 3.3 percent annually in September, following a 0.1 percent drop in August. In the meantime, Poland's Purchasing Managers' survey data is due.

Spain's manufacturing PMI is due from Markit Economics at 4.15 am ET. The index had fallen to 43.7 in September from 45.3 in August.

Italy's manufacturing PMI, due at 4.45 am ET, is forecast to fall to 47.2 in October from 48.3 a month ago. At 4.50 am ET, the French final manufacturing PMI is due.

German manufacturing PMI and unemployment reports are due at 4.55 am ET. The number of unemployed is forecast to fall by 10,000 in October after declining 26,000 in September. The jobless rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.9 percent.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurozone final manufacturing PMI for October is due. The index is expected to match the flash estimate reading of 47.3.

In the meantime, Iceland's central bank is forecast to announce its interest rate decision. The central bank is widely expected to leave its key rate unchanged at 4.5 percent.

The U.K. CIPS/Markit construction PMI is due at 5.30 am ET. The index is seen at 50 in October, down from 50.1 in September.

 

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Euro Weakens Against Most Majors

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In early European deals on Thursday, the euro has been declining against its US, UK and Japanese counterparts. At present, the euro is worth 1.3660 against the dollar, 106.63 against the yen and 0.8600 against the pound. The next downside target level for the euro is seen at 0.855 against the pound, 105.0 against the yen and 1.361 against the dollar.

 

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European Economics Preview: German Industrial Output Forecast To Fall

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Industrial production from Germany and retail sales from Eurozone are the major reports due on Monday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 1.45 am ET, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) is scheduled to issue Swiss jobless data for October. The jobless rate is forecast to rise to 2.9 percent from 2.8 percent in September.

The Czech statistical office is set to release industrial output and trade balance data for September at 3.00 am ET. Industrial production had increased 5.9 percent year-on-year in August.

Swiss inflation data is due at 3.15 am ET. Economists forecast annual inflation to fall to 0.2 percent in October from 0.5 percent in September.

Statistics Norway is slated to release industrial output data for September at 4.00 am ET. Industrial production had increased 3.6 percent month-on-month in August.

The Sentix investor confidence index for Eurozone is due at 4.30 am ET. The index is seen at -20 in November, down from -18.5 in October.

Eurozone retail sales figures are due from Eurostat at 5.00 am ET. Retail sales are forecast to fall 0.1 percent month-on-month in September after rising 0.1 percent in August. On a yearly basis, it is expected to drop 0.5 percent.

The Federal Ministry of Economy and Technology is scheduled to issue German industrial production figures at 6.00 am ET. Economists forecast industrial output to fall 0.9 percent on a monthly basis after easing 1 percent in August.

Finance ministers from Eurozone are set to meet in Brussels later today. Finance chiefs will possibly discuss on strengthening of the bailout fund in order to shield other economies like Italy and Spain.

 

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Moody's Downgrades Three Cypriot Banks

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Moody's Investor Service on Tuesday lowered the long-term deposit and debt ratings of three Cypriot banks, following Cyprus' sovereign downgrade last week.

The rating action reflected the reduced ability of the economy to support its large banking system, which has an asset base six times bigger than the country's gross domestic product, the agency said in a statement.

Moody's said that it downgraded both Bank of Cyprus and Hellenic Bank by one notch to Ba2, while the ratings on Marfin Popular Bank Public Co Ltd was cut by three notches to B2.

Moody's has also placed the ratings of the three banks on review for further downgrade. These actions followed Moody's downgrade on November 4 of Cyprus government bond rating by two notches to Baa3.

 

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Euro Drops To 2-day Low Against Yen

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The euro edged lower against the currencies of the U.S., the U.K. and Japan in late Asian deals Wednesday.

The common currency slipped to a 2-day low of 107.07 against the yen around 2:35 am ET, compared to 107.54 hit late New York Tuesday. The next downside target for the pair is likely to be seen around the 106.80 level.

The common currency also reached as low as 0.8578 against the pound and 1.3784 against the dollar before holding steady around 2:35 am ET. The euro is presently worth 0.8580 against the pound and 1.3794 versus the buck.

 

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Research: ECB Made An Additional Eur 9.5bn of Weekly Bond Purchas

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Quotes from Standard Chartered:

-As the crisis in the euro area intensifies, yields on peripheral government bonds have soared, with Italian 10Y yields reaching a high of 7.49% on 9 November, although European Central Bank (ECB) buying helped to stabilise yields at a slightly lower level by the end of the trading day. Meanwhile the ECB reported that the emergency lending facility hit an eight-month high.

-Bond purchases through the Securities Market Program stood at EUR 129bn at the beginning of September, and have now reached EUR 183bn - with data this week showing that the ECB made an additional EUR 9.5bn of weekly bond purchases as contagion risks threaten to destabilise an already fragile euro area.

 

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European Economics Preview: UK Output Price Data Due

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Output price figures from the U.K. and preliminary gross domestic product estimates from Spain are the major European Economic news due on Friday.

At 1 am ET, Statistics Estonia released the flash GDP numbers for the third quarter. The economy grew 0.8 percent quarter-on-quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Swedish unemployment data is due at 2 am ET. Jobless rate is expected to stay unchanged at 4.5 percent in October.

At 3 am ET, Spanish third quarter GDP data is due. The economy grew 0.2 percent sequentially in the second quarter, while expanding 0.7 percent annually. Economists forecast the GDP to rise 0.7 percent year-on-year and to record zero growth on a quarterly basis.

The Hungarian statistical office is scheduled to release the CPI figures for the month of October at 3 am ET. Turkish industrial production data is also expected at the same time.

At 4.30 am ET, the Office for National Statistics is slated to publish output price data for October. Output prices are forecast to increase 0.2 percent from September on an unadjusted basis.

 

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European Economics Preview: Eurozone Industrial Output Due

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Industrial production figures from Eurozone and current account data from France are the main European news on tap for Monday.

At 1 am ET, Estonia released unemployment figures for the third quarter, which showed jobless rate falling markedly to 10.9 percent from 13.3 percent in the second quarter.

Statistics Finland is due to release the consumer price index figures for the month of October at 2 am ET.

At 2.45 am ET, French current account data for September is due. Swiss producer and import price index data is expected at 3.15 am ET.

At 5 am ET, Eurostat is scheduled to release the industrial production figures for September. Production is forecast to fall 2.3 percent month-on-month, while rising at a slower pace of 3.6 percent annually.

Statistics Portugal is slated to publish the flash third quarter national accounts data at 5 am ET. The Portuguese economy stagnated in the second quarter compared to the preceding quarter. Annually, the gross domestic product dropped 0.9 percent.

 

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European Economics Preview: BoE Inflation Report Due

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Quarterly Inflation Report and claimant count from the U.K. and final inflation figures from the euro area are the major statistical events due on Wednesday.

At 3.00 am ET, Spain's final GDP figures are due from the statistical office INE. In the meantime, Turkish consumer confidence data is due.

The Office for National Statistics is set to release U.K. labor market statistics at 4.30 am ET. The number of people claiming jobseekers allowances is forecast to rise 21,000 in October. The claimant count rate is seen at 5.1 percent, up from 5 percent in September.

Half an hour later, Eurostat is slated to release final inflation data for October. Eurozone annual inflation is seen at 3 percent, in line with flash estimate.

The Bank of England is set to publish quarterly Inflation Report at 5.30 am ET. The report provides clear picture about the assessment of future inflation and growth. The bank is expected downgrade its growth outlook.

 

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Europe Must Implement Agreed Fiscal Reforms: Luxembourg's Asselborn

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European countries must implement the measures agreed at the October summit to resolve the debt crisis, Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn said Thursday.

In an interview to Deutschlandfunk radio, he also said that the euro rescue fund need to be strengthened.

Meanwhile, the minister rejected the idea of amending EU treaties, saying that this will not be helpful in Europe's efforts to contain the crisis.

 

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Research: Eur/gbp - Trading Strategy, Trigger Points, and Support and Resistance Levels

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RBS has given the following trading strategy, trigger points, and support and resistance levels:

TRADING STRATEGY: (from Tuesday) Short here target 0.8473 onto 0.8356 stop at 0.8640.

TRIGGER POINTS:

0.8536 - Two previous significant lows strong support level

0.8555 - The low of the cloud on the weekly chart watch for a close beneath here into week end.

0.8356 - The Feb low and overall objective from this range break

SUPPORT LEVELS: 0.8536, 0.8499

RESISTANCE LEVELS: 0.8617, 0.8706

-Very little in this cross - that has begun quite a distinct ranging period; capped around 0.8600 and supported at the 150% projection of a previous range at 0.8518. The short term trend is still bearish and predominantly the market is struggling to make a higher high. I (analyst) prefer shorts over longs and would add to these positions on the breaking of 0.8518

 

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Euro Drops To 4-day Low Against Yen

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Extending its early Asian session's downtrend, the European currency reached a 4-day low of 103.50 against the yen around 3:00 am ET Monday. The euro-yen pair is presently worth 103.55 and a move below the 103.40 support could set its lowest mark in 6-weeks.

 

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Opec to Decide to Cut Output at It Dec Meeting As Global Oil Demand Is Likely to Decline-Iraq Oil Minister

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Iraq's Oil Minister Adbul-Kareem Luaibisaid on Tuesday that he expects OPEC to cut output at itsDecmeeting on falling global oil demand. He said that oil will likely continue trade between a range of $100 and $120 and added that the range was reasonable

 

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European Economics Preview: BoE Minutes Due

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The minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting from the Bank of England and flash Purchasing Managers' survey from France, Germany and Eurozone are the major reports due on Wednesday.

The French statistical office Insee is scheduled to issue business confidence survey results at 2.45 am ET. Business sentiment is seen at 95, down from 97 in October.

Flash French Purchasing Managers' survey results are due at 3.00 am ET. The manufacturing PMI is seen at 48 in November compared to 48.5 in October. At the same time, the services PMI is forecast to rise to 45 from 44.6.

Half an hour later, Markit Economics is slated to issue Flash German PMI. The manufacturing PMI is expected to drop to 48.5 and services PMI to fall to 50.

At 4.00 am ET, Flash Eurozone PMI data is due. The manufacturing PMI is seen at 46.5 compared to 47.1 in the prior month. Likewise, the services PMI is forecast to ease to 46 from 46.4.

The Bank of England is set to issue the minutes of the monetary policy meeting held on November 10. Policy makers have maintained the size of quantitative easing intact at GBP 275 billion and its record low interest rate.

Eurostat is scheduled to issue Eurozone industrial new orders for September at 5.00 am ET. Economists forecast new orders to fall 2.7 percent month-on-month in September after rising 1.4 percent in August.

 

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