HFM Posted April 11, 2023 Author Share Posted April 11, 2023 Date : 11th April 2023. Market Update – April 11 – Stocks & USD Mixed as Inflation & Earnings Loom. Trading Leveraged Products is risky US #stockmarkets closed mixed – Industrials higher – Tech lower (#Samsung said they will cut chip production – lifting Western Digital & Micron +8%). USD continued to recover, (USDIndex topped at 102.50), Treasuries slipped again (10 yr 3.41%) and #BTC breached $30k for the first time in 10mths. In the Asian session stocks are higher (ASX +1.3% after Easter break & Nikkei +1.4% after a Dovish outlook from new BOJ Governor Ueda & Buffet said he was planning to add to his Japanese investments. AUD is outperforming. Overnight Data Chinese #CPI cooled to 0.7% from 1.0% and missed expectations, and #PPI fell further remaining significantly deflationary at -2.5% from -1.4% FX – USDIndex rallied to 102.50 yesterday and hold at 102.00 today. EUR tested down to 1.0850 but is back to test 1.0900 today. JPY breached 133.00 yesterday & rallied to 133.88 as BOJ Governor Ueda, confirmed there will be no immediate policy change from the BOJ. Sterling’s decline from the key 1.2500 stalled at 1.2350 and now trades back at 1.2400 today. Stocks – US markets closed mixed (+0.30% to -0.03%) after a very weak open. #US500 closed at 4109 – US500 FUTS are higher today at 4140. Q1 Earnings Season kicks off with the big Wall Street Banks on Friday & FRC today. Commodities – USOil – Futures tested under the key $80.00 level but holds at $80.50 now. Gold – tests the vital $2000, level again today having been as low as $1982, yesterday. Cryptocurrencies – BTC rallied over 8% from the $28k level and breached $30k earlier today spiking to $30.7k on speculation that interest rates may have peaked. Additionally, a major revamp to the Ethereum ($1.917k) blockchain is due this week “that is set to allow them to gain access to more than $33 billion of ether currency. Dubbed Shapella, the software upgrade will let market players redeem their “staked ether” – coins they have deposited and locked up on the network over the past three years in return for interest.” – Reuters Today – EZ Retail Sales and Sentix Index, EIA STEO, speeches from Fed’s Goolsbee & Harker. IMF Meetings Continue. Earnings – First Republic (#FRC), which was hit hard by client withdrawals in the aftermath of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.46%). Rallied from under 0.6620 yesterday to test 0.6680 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 61.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00092, Daily ATR 0.00701. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 12, 2023 Author Share Posted April 12, 2023 Date : 12th April 2023. Market Update – April 12 – All eyes on US Inflation & FOMC Minutes. US #stockmarkets closed mixed again and Asian markets are flat ahead of US CPI print at 12:30 GMT today. USD has slipped again as EUR & AUD outperform. Treasuries recovered a tad (10-yr at 3.434%), #Gold hits $2,020 #USOil moves to $81.50 despite inventory build and #BTC holds onto $30k level. Fed’s Harker the “Fed may soon be done” and Goolsbee the Fed “needs to be careful about raising rates too aggressively in its efforts to tame inflation”, turned more Dovish. Kashkari remained Hawkish, “would be much worse for jobs if we failed to get inflation down”. CME Fed Futures still have a 69% chance of 25 bp interest rate hike in May. A hold from June ?? Overnight Data Japanese #PPI cooled to 7.2% from 8.3% but remains very elevated and #Machine Orders declined significantly (-4.5%) but not as badly as expected (-6.4%) from 9.5%. FX – USDIndex declined to 101.65 and remains anchored below 102.00 today. EUR holds over 1.0900 today and trades at 1.0925. JPY breached 134.00 today from a test back to 133.00 yesterday. Sterling holds over 1.2400 at 1.2425. Stocks – US markets closed mixed again with Tech underperforming (+0.29% to -0.43%). #US500 closed at 4109 – US500 FUTS are lower today at 4134 from 4150 yesterday. Q1 Earnings Season kicks off with the big Wall Street Banks on Friday. #CARMAX rose 7% following stronger results. Commodities – USOil – Futures tested $81.50 level today despite private API inventories showing weaker demand as a build for both gasoline and petroleum products was recorded. Official EIA inventories today. Gold – tests the $2020, level again today having been as low as $1998, yesterday. Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds the $30k level spiking to $30.5k earlier. Binance also suspended TRON & Spell as TRON founder Justin Sun was arrested in Hong Kong (also wanted in the US). Today – US CPI, BoC Rate Decision, FOMC Minutes, speeches from ECB’s Lagarde and de Guindos, BoE’s Bailey (x2), Fed’s Barkin and Daly. Earnings – LVMH Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURJPY (+0.16%). Continued to rally from under 143.00 last week to test 146.35 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 61.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.187, Daily ATR 1.526. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 13, 2023 Author Share Posted April 13, 2023 Date : 13th April 2023. Market Update – April 13 – CPI & FED “One more hike & done?” The US CPI report was good news for bulls as it suggests the FOMC can start easing off the brakes, though this is not likely in May (69% chance of another hike). Some market participants believe one more 25bp and they will be done, others remain Hawkish and that moving CORE CPI & CPE from the 5% to the 3-2% range will prove problematic and this could mean hikes in May and June too. FOMC minutes showed considerable discussions over the banking turmoil, as indicated in Chair Powell’s press conference. The “banking sector” was the literally the lead paragraph of the report and was mentioned 24 times overall, compared to zero in February. There was some overall softening in outlooks, which also “increased the already-high level of uncertainty associated with the outlooks on economic activity.” However, ultimately “all” participants supported the 25 bp rate hike. A mild recession is expected from the FOMC. The Bank of Canada left its target rate at 4.50%, as expected, unchanged from March after the 25 bp tightening in January. But it was a “hawkish” pause as inflation and economic activity have not really evolved as expected. CAD gained on the news. Volatility dominated the newsflow yesterday. USD dived and remains pressured, EUR, Sterling & AUD all benefitted. US Stocks markets all closed lower, and this fed through to mixed Asian markets and European & US Futures. Treasury markets caught an extra bid and yields finished lower, led by the 2-year’s 6.5 bp slide to 3.958% & the 10-year’s +3.5 bp to 3.395%, remaining 56 bp inverted. Gold and Oil both benefited from a weaker USD and BTC continues to hold at $30k. Overnight Data China March Trade – big beat – (USD) Exports +14.8% y/y (expected -7.1%) & Imports -1.4% y/y (expected -6.4%). AUD Jobs beat (53k vs 20k), Unemployment (3.5% vs 3.6%) & CPI (4.6% vs 5.3%) both fell significantly too. German Final CPI in line at 7.8% and UK GDP (Feb) missed again (0.0% vs 0.1% & 0.4%) last time. FX – USDIndex declined to test April lows at 101.05 and remains anchored well below 102.00 today at 101.20. EUR spiked to 1.1000 yesterday and again today and trades at 1.0988. The 2023 high is 1.1032. JPY dived from 134.00, tested below 133.00 and trades at 133.25 now. Sterling rallied from 1.2400 but remains under the key 1.2500 once again at 1.2490. Stocks – US markets closed lower (-0.11% to -0.85%) as the rate sensitive Tech sector led the declines once again. #US500 closed down 17pts. at 4091. – US500 FUTS are also lower today at 4124 from highs of 4177 yesterday. #LVMH rallied after surging sales in China. Commodities – USOil – Futures have tested the $83.50 level today despite official EIA inventories showing weaker demand as a build (+0.6m vs -1.0m and -3.7m last week) for both gasoline and petroleum products was recorded. Gold – has broken the $2020, level again today having been to a low of $2001, and a high of $2028 yesterday. Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds the $30k level spiking to $30.4k and $29.6k extremes yesterday. Today – EZ Industrial Production, US PPI, US Weekly Claims, OPEC MOMR, speeches from BoC’s Macklem, BoE’s Pill. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.38%). Continued to rally from under 88.00 on Monday to test 89.50 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 63.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.187, Daily ATR 1.526. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 14, 2023 Author Share Posted April 14, 2023 Date : 14th April 2023. Market Update – April 14 – Stocks rally, USD tumbles, FED to stall? Stock trading screens turned green yesterday after cooler than expected PPI (-0.5% vs 0.0) and a bigger than expected increase in jobless claims (239k vs 228k)helped propel Wall Street to better than 1% gains. The NASDAQ surged 1.99% to top the 12,000 level again. The US500 jumped 1.33% and has been over the 4,000 mark for an eleventh straight session. The US30 was up 1.14% to top 34,000 for the first time since mid-February. Treasuries closed in the red 10yr at 3.44% and the curved is now 52 pts inverted. USD continues to decline and trades at 12-mth lows, EURUSD over 1.1070 this morning and Sterling trades at 1.2540. Asian markets cautious & flat (save NIKKEI +1.1%) & European FUT’s are firmer ahead of US bank earnings, Retail Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment. Overnight Data Singapore’s central bank sprang the surprise of the Asian day by halting its tightening cycle, markets were expecting more restraint. Singapore joins Canada & Australia, India & South Korea to press the pause button. They also issued a gloomy outlook. FX – USDIndex declined further to 100.50 and 12-mth lows and a third consecutive week of declines. EUR spiked to 1.1070 earlier and holds the bid. JPY dived from 133.00 and is testing 132.00 now. Sterling rallied to breach 1.2500 and holds this key level. Stocks – US markets closed with strong gains across all sectors (1.14% to 1.99%) as the rate sensitive Tech sector led the rally. #US500 closed +54 pts. at 4146. – US500 FUTS are also higher today at 4167 having tested the resistance at 4175 again. #AMZN & #NFLX gained over 4% each and #GOOG, #MSFT & #TSLA over 2% each. Commodities – USOil – Futures cooled from weekly highs at $83.50 to $82.30 today. Gold – holds over the $2040, level today having been to a low of $2015 yesterday. Next major resistance sits at $2050. Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds the $30k level spiking to $30.8k today. Today – US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production, US Uni. of Michigan Prelim. Survey, speeches from Fed’s Waller, BoE’s Tenreyro, Earnings from UnitedHealth, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.32%). Continued to rally from under 1.6260 yesterday to test 1.6340 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line negative but rising, RSI 55.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00161, Daily ATR 0.01377. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 17, 2023 Author Share Posted April 17, 2023 Date : 17th April 2023. Market Update – April 17- Expectations of FED May hike increase lifting USD. Trading Leveraged Products is risky There is now (CME marketwatch) an 83% chance of a 25 bp FED HIKE in May, from 74% on Friday, as mixed US data (a Big miss fro Retail Sales, and minor beats for Ind. Production & Consumer Sentiment) saw USD rally 1 big number from 12-mth lows, & GOLD crash below $2000. US Stocks closed lower (-0.35% to -0.72%) despite big Earnings beats from the Banks, JPM +7.6%, but Boeing tanked -5.6% as fault from supplier Spirit (-20.7%) halted deliveries of 737 MAX. Asian markets were higher (Nikkei hit a 6-week high) to start the week before cooling. Weekend (IMF Meeting) & Overnight Data – Ueda had more dovish comments, Yellen said bank credit tightening could be a substitute for further Fed rate hikes, Lagarde warned of a “narrow path” for global economic recovery and Dimon expects rates to be “higher for longer”. NZD Performance Services Index misses at 54.4 vs. 55.8 but Food Inflation cooled to 0.8% from 1.5% & China’s New Home prices rose at their fastest pace in 21 months. FX – USDIndex bounced from under 100.50 and 12-mth lows over 100 pips to 101.50 but still registered a seventh consecutive week of declines and trades at 101.25 now. EUR declined from 1.1075 to 1.0970 and trades at 1.0990 now testing 1.1000. JPY tested 132.00 on Friday before rallying to over 134.00 today. Sterling rallied to breach 1.2545 on Friday before declining under 1.2400 earlier but trades at 1.2415 now. Stocks – US markets closed down across all sectors (-0.35% to -0.72%) as the rate sensitive Tech sector led the rally. #US500 closed -8.58 pts. at 4137. – US500 FUTS are flat today at 4169 having been as high as 4188 on Friday and above the key resistance at 4175. #CITI, +4.8% & #Blackrock +3.1%. Commodities – USOil – Futures continue to rotate around $82.50 today. Gold – tanked from a test of the $2050, level on Friday to under $1995. The key metal is back over $2000 today and trades at $2010. Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds under the $30k level today from a brief spike over $31k on Friday. Today – Empire State Manu. Index – speeches from BOE’s Cunliffe, ECB’s Lagarde and Bundesbank’s Nagel. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.31%). Continued to rally and is now 7 days higher from under 88.00 to test 90.00 once again today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 58.65 & rising, H1 ATR 0.155, Daily ATR 0.9200. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 18, 2023 Author Share Posted April 18, 2023 Date : 18th April 2023. Market Update – April 18 – USD Holds Gains, Chinese GDP & UK Jobs Spike. The USD cooled from a 2-day rally despite strong Empire State Manufacturing Index, Stocks closed flat and Yields (10yr 3.591%) held onto gains. Overnight strong Chinese data (GDP hit 4.5% in Q1 vs 4.0% & 2.9%), Retail Sales were 10.6% from 3.5% and Unemployment fell to 5.3% from 5.6%. UK Jobs beat (28.2k new jobs vs -11.2k last time, Earnings continue to be very hot at 5.9% vs 5.7%, Unemployment was 1 tick higher at 3.8% too adding to the bid on Sterling and increasing chatter of stagflation in the UK and pressure on the BOE to act again. Asian markets are also subdued despite Chinese data. Us Futures hold at recent highs. FX – USDIndex rallied to 101.90 and trades at a previous intra-day key pivot level at 101.65. EUR declined further to 1.0910 rejecting 1.1000. Today 1.0950 remains immediate resistance. JPY pushed higher again and breached 134.50 briefly today. Sterling moved down to 1.2355 lows yesterday but is testing back to 1.2400 today following the UK jobs data. Stocks – US markets closed flat but positive across all sectors (0.28% to 0.33%) #US500 closed +13.68 pts. at 4151. – US500 FUTS are higher today at 4177 and above the key resistance at 4175. #SST -9.18%, MRNA -8.36%, Roblox -12.01%. #GOOGL -2.66% (Rumour that Samsung is to use Bing, not Google for searches) Musk; latest to announce investment into to new AI platform to rival ChatGPT. Commodities – USOil – Futures declined into $80.30 yesterday but has recovered to $81.00 day. Gold – continued to slip, testing $1982, before recovering the key $2000 today Cryptocurrencies – BTC declined from the $30k level yesterday to $29K and back to $29.6k today. Today – German ZEW, US Housing Starts/Building Permits, Canadian CPI, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Bowman, BOC’s Macklem & Rogers, ECB’s Elderson. Earnings from Ericsson (beat), United Airlines, JNJ, Netflix, Goldman Sachs & BofA. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.59%). Rallied from a decline to 0.6680 yesterday to test 0.6740 today, 0.6750 and 0.6780 next resistance areas. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 66.50 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00090, Daily ATR 0.00751. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 19, 2023 Author Share Posted April 19, 2023 Date : 19th April 2023. Market Update – April 19 – USD Holds gains , UK CPI very hot. The USD rotated (USDIndex at 101.50) as Bonds lead with Yields higher too. Expectations for a 25 bp May Fed rate hike continued to rise on more hawkish Fedspeak, Bullard even talked of two more 25bp after May, Bostic sees 25bp in May and then a pause for the rest of the year. Stocks closed flat, BoA and J&J big beats, GS strong EPS but revenue missed. After hours Netflix missed subscriber numbers and shares tanked -12% on poor Q2 outlook – but full year offered better numbers and the losses were reversed completely. ECB’s Lane sees 3 more hikes for the common currency area and remains Hawkish, despite talk of FED pause. Overnight strong UK CPI disappointed, headline missed and remained over 10% at 10.1%, the key CORE number is 3 x times the BoE target at 6.2%, RPI 13.5% and the Food & Non-Alcoholic Component a staggering 19.2%. Service Inflation also rose to 5.7% FX – USDIndex rotates at 101.50, EUR holds through 1.0970 and JPY pushes higher again breaching 134.50. Sterling got a big boost from the inflation data and trades at 1.2470. Stocks – US markets closed flat again (-0.04% to 0.09%) #US500 closed +3.55 pts. at 4154. – US500 FUTS are at 4167 and below the key resistance at 4175. Commodities – USOil – Futures declined into $80.00 yesterday but has recovered to $80.40 day. Gold – continued to slip, testing $1986, before recovering to trade at $1994.0 Cryptocurrencies – BTC rallied from the $30k level yesterday to $30.5k and back to $30.0k today. Today – EZ HICP (Final), New Zealand CPI, Speeches from ECB’s Lane & Schnabel, Fed’s Goolsbee, BoE’s Mann, UK & US, Earnings from ASML, (big beat) Heineken, (beat) Just Eat (mixed), American Airlines, IBM, Tesla, Morgan Stanley. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.67%). Rallied from 0166.75 pre Inflation data to 167.65. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 80.30, OB but still rising, H1 ATR 0.187 Daily ATR 1.34. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 20, 2023 Author Share Posted April 20, 2023 Date : 20th April 2023. Market Update – April 20 – Markets Tread Water. The USD continued to rotate (USDIndex at 101.65) hotter UK inflation data added to more global concerns that core price pressures remain too elevated & the Beige Book did not provide the evidence that credit conditions are tightening significantly enough to take the Fed off the hook for more action. FOMC, ECB & BOE all set to hike in May, divergence to follow in the summer? Stocks were flat overall again, with some strong Earnings (Abbott Labs +7.82% IBM, TSMC & WAL +24.12%) some mixed (Morgan Stanley) and some missed (#TSLA, -6% after hours). Asian markets are subdued as PBOC leave rates unchanged and the NZD underperforms as inflation cools significantly. Fed’s Williams & Goolsbee reiterated that inflation is still “too high” and the FOMC will “act”. ECB’s Knot “too early to talk about a pause in rate hikes”. Overnight RBNZ inflation measure for Q1 2023 5.7% vs. 5.8%, German March PPI -2.6% vs -0.5%. FX – USDIndex rotates at 101.65, EUR holds at 1.0970 and JPY pushed to over 135.00 before declining to 134.50. Sterling got a big boost from the inflation data and trades at 1.2470. Stocks – US markets closed flat again (-0.23% to 0.03%) #US500 closed unchanged at 4154. – US500 FUTS are at 4167 and below the key resistance at 4175. Commodities – USOil – Futures tanked into $78.35 today following inventory decline of 4.6 million barrels and weak Asian markets, Gold – continued to slip, testing $1970, yesterday before recovering to trade at $2000.0 Cryptocurrencies – BTC declined from the $30k level yesterday, breaking $29k today. Today – US Weekly Claims, Existing Home Sales, EZ Consumer Confidence, ECB Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Waller, Mester, Bowman & Bostic, ECB’s Lagarde & Schnabel. EARNINGS Phillip Morris, AT&T, American Express, Publicis, EssilorLuxottica, Renault & Nokia. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (-0.75%). Tanked from 2-day highs at 0.5580 yesterday to 0.5513 lows today. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling, RSI 33.28 & flat, H1 ATR 0.00101 Daily ATR 0.00530. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 27, 2023 Author Share Posted April 27, 2023 Date : 27th April 2023. Market Update – April 27 – Technology Bid, Banks remain a worry. The USD steadied lower at close to 101. Risk appetite improved, amid positive signs in earnings reports. Wall Street finished mixed but near the lows of the day, while US100 managed a modest gain asbetter than expected results from META and robust results from European banks helped to counterbalance lingering jitters at some US banks. Asia stocks all moved higher overnight. GER40 & UK100 are in the red though, as hawkish central bank comments suggest further rate hikes next month. Yields have moved higher overnight. The curve steepened to -49 bps from -55 bps Tuesday and -60 bps Monday. This is the least inverted since April 5. FX – USDIndex at 101 as EUR and GBP rise slightly. But JPY held below 134. Stocks – #DeutscheBank up 3.5% pre-market, as reported highest pre-tax profit in a decade on strong inflows. #Barclays +1.58% profit rises 27% on back of rising interest rates. #Meta +11.61% after hours, as it reported its first increase in sales in nearly a year due to continued improvements in its advertising business, as the company continues to pare back spending during what Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg has called a “year of efficiency.” #AstraZeneca beats forecasts as cancer drugs sales pick up. Commodities – USOil drifted, falling under $75 per barrel and now down -3.56% to fresh intraday lows of $74.33. The EIA reported a -5.1 mln barrel drop in oil inventories which boosted prices, but only temporarily. Angst over a recession is building again amid concerns over regional banks and tightening credit conditions. And even though the markets are pricing in the end of Fed rate hikes after next month’s 25 bp hike, upcoming data on Q1 GDP and ECI may not give the FOMC the opportunity to pause, and that is adding to the threat of a slowing/contracting economy. There are also concerns over the strength of China’s recovery. Concurrently, Russian supplies are reportedly hitting the market via Asian ports. Additionally, Bloomberg reported a deterioration in oil-refining profits over the last few weeks, which has companies considering lower processing rates. And one more thing today, the USD is recovering into the afternoon and that is pressuring prices. Gold – at $2001. Cryptocurrencies – BTC closed unchanged reversing all gains up to $30K. Currently stettled to $28900. Today – EU Confidence, US GDP & Earnings: Amazon, Intel, Mastercard etc. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.65%) up to 82.30. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line rising, RSI 65, OB 89 but flat. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 28, 2023 Author Share Posted April 28, 2023 Date : 28th April 2023. Market Update – April 28 – End of the Month Moves. The USD boosted to 101.50. More strong earnings reports from big tech boosted Wall Street with US100 advancing 2.43%. Treasury yields also climbed on a more hawkish view on the FOMC’s trajectory after an acceleration in core PCE inflation. Good news from Amazon added to that from Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft and more than countered ongoing concerns over regional banks. In Japan, Kazuo Ueda announced a comprehensive policy review in his first policy board meeting as Bank of Japan governor but held off from changing its ultra-loose monetary stance. BoJ’s Ueda ready to add to easing if needed, sees bigger risk from premature tightening and he called for broad policy review; left rate at -0.1% and YCC unchanged. FX – USDIndex rose to a high of 101.80, but lost most of its gains and finished at 101.50. USDJPY spiked to 135.75. The 50 minute delay in the announcement versus the average time saw JPY turn jumpy and USDJPY slipped to the lows before the headlines hit. Stocks – The US500 surged 1.96% & the US30 was up 1.57%. #Amazon up 4.6% posted $3.2 billion profit as it goes through multiple rounds of layoffs. The cost cuts and surprisingly strong sales in the cloud-computing division helped the e-commerce giant weather an uncertain economy. #DeutscheBank +2.54% has agreed to buy Numis in a deal that values the UK broker at £410mn, the two companies announced on Friday. #META +14%. #Natwest +2.01% profits increased by a better than expected almost 50%. #Tesla +4.19%. Commodities – USOil eased a bit at $75.40. Gold – has slipped to $1979 per oz from $2003. Cryptocurrencies – BTC flattened at $29750 from $26K lows. Today – Q1 Eurozone GDP, CPI figures in France, Germany and Spain, UK Nationwide housing prices data & Earnings: Chevron, NatWest, Electrolux, Eni and Smurfit Kappa. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (+1.29%) up to 135.75. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line rising, Stochastics at 89 and rising. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted May 1, 2023 Author Share Posted May 1, 2023 Date : 1st May 2023. Market Update – May 1 – Bullish End & Bullish Start? It was a very bullish end to April with Treasuries and Wall Street ending in the green on the month, as were Treasuries but with a couple of expectations. Better than expected earnings news from most of big tech, and data reflecting a still resilient economy helped propel the major indexes higher. Today, USD to the upside, extending to 101.60. Wall Street is firmer in spite of upcoming Fed hike, while all the attention is on First Republic. The Wall Street Journal reported that: “Federal regulators were poised to seize the First Republic Bank (-43.34% Friday) and sell it to a larger lender. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC) and PNC Financial Services Group (PNC), Citizens Financial Group (CFG) and US Bancorp (USB) were also reportedly invited for bidding” – this would mark the third US bank failure this year. China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in April. FX – USDIndex rose to a high of 101.60. USDJPY keep extending gains to 136.98, amid market uncertainty and on the BoJ’s commitment to an uber-accommodative stance. Stocks – The US500 up at +0.13% to 4193.75, the US30 muted to 34209 and US100 +0.27% at 13356.. Commodities – USOil falls to $75.80 after data from China reignited concerns about a patchy recovery in the world’s biggest crude importer. Gold – at $1979. Cryptocurrencies – BTC has slipped back to $28173 from $30K highs. Today – US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.88%) a breath below 91.00. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line rising, Stochastics at 93 buy flattened. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted May 2, 2023 Author Share Posted May 2, 2023 Date : 2nd May 2023. Market Update – May 2 -RBA down! FED & ECB to go! May kicked off with another bank failure, the fourth in two months, as First Republic Bank (FRC) was seized by the FDIC, after which the assets were purchased by JPMorgan Chase. FRC became the second largest bank in US history to go under, ignominiously taking over that mantle from SVB. Morgan Stanley plans to cut 3,000 jobs due to a dealmaking slowdown by the end of June. RBA hiked its cash rate by 25 bps to 3.850%, surprising many forecasters expecting a third straight pause. Treasury yields closed sharply higher on inflation data and a pick up in Fed fears, a hefty corporate calendar, and upward revisions to Q2 borrowing estimates. US manufacturing sector enters longest contractionary streak since 2009. Stock markets remain choppy in search of direction. FX – USDIndex kicked 102.03 in the morning but currently turned lower. USDJPY keep extending gains for the 4th day to 137.70, amid market uncertainty. Stocks – The US30 lost -0.14%, while the US500 and US100 were -0.04% and -0.11% lower, respectively. The Nikkei and Hang Seng managed slight gains. #Amazon -3.22%, #Tesla -1.35%, #JPM +2.14%, #Meta +1.19%. Commodities – USOil fell to $74.35 as weak economic data from China and expectations of a US interest rate increase weigh on the market. Gold – at $1983 after tumbling to $1979 from $2007 yesterday. Cryptocurrencies – BTC down to $2774. Today – EU HICP and US Factory orders. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+1.09%) spiked by more than 85 pips the past 2 hours. MAs keep rising, MACD histogram & signal line rising, Stochastics at 95 and points higher, all indicating further nearterm positive bias. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted May 3, 2023 Author Share Posted May 3, 2023 Date : 3rd May 2023. Market Update – May 3 – Eyes on Fed. Japan and China bourses were closed for holidays and elsewhere markets were still rattled by the drop in Wall Street and fresh jitters at US regional banks. Asian stocks declined while US futures steadied on Wednesday as markets wait for the Fed announcement. Lingering concern over the health of the financial system should add to the arguments of the cautious camps at central banks, but policy sensitive short term bonds are underperforming this morning. Treasuries are holding a strong haven bid on worries over the regional banking sector. The sentiment is mixed by recent data suggesting an economic slowdown, including the lowest number of job openings in almost two years. FOMC Preview: FOMC began its 2-day meeting and will announce its policy decision Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. A 25 bp increase is well anticipated. With no new SEP forecasts to guide the outlook, the focus will be on the policy statement and Chair Powell’s press conference. We do not expect any explicit forward guidance as the Fed will want to maintain optionality and leave all doors open. However, we do look for him to continue to push back against rate cut expectations. Implied Fed funds futures have slid lower, along with the drop in Treasury yields, amid heightened concerns over regional banks, and after weaker than expected data. FX – USDIndex has corrected to 101.30 while the Yen is picking up haven bids. The EURUSD is also back above the 1.103 mark ahead of the Fed announcement today and the ECB meeting tomorrow. Stocks – Hang Seng and ASX lost -1.7% and -0.96% respectively, although European and US Futures are higher. The US500 lost -1.16% while the US30 and US100 declined –1.08%. Jitters increased even after JPMorgan’s purchase of beleaguered First Republic Bank provided some stability Monday. But that did not hold as PacWest and Western Alliance were in the spotlight, dropping -42% and -27%, respectively, on investor angst. That saw the KBW bank index drop -4.4%. Nearly every sector in S&P was in the red. Commodities – USOil plunged by -5% to $71.50 as markets priced in expectations for interest rate hikes in the US and Europe and waited for clarity on future policy path. Gold – Spiked to $2018. Today – US ADP, ISM Services and Fed announcement. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USOIL (-5%) drifted to 71.29 from 76 area. MAs flattened but MACD histogram & signal line are way below 0, Stochastics is slipping. ATR(H1) at 0.20 & ATR(D) at 2.26. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted May 4, 2023 Author Share Posted May 4, 2023 Date : 4th May 2023. Market Update – May 4 – Renewed Anxiety. Asian stock markets traded mixed, US futures are moving higher, while European futures are in the red. A somewhat mixed picture then, as markets digest the Fed announcement, while keeping a wary eye on financial conditions. A 25 bp hike had long been priced in, while the shift in the policy statement was also in line with expectations. The Fed kept all options open for the next meeting and the ECB is likely to do the same after delivering another hike today. Heightened caution at central banks also reflects the fact that bank jitters continue to linger and are contributing to a tightening of credit conditions that will amplify the rate hikes already delivered. Treasuries are in the green. FX – USDIndex remained under pressure and dropped to 100.78 while the Yen continues to outperform, with USDJPY at 134.14. EURUSD failed to break 1.11, while Cable breached its 1.2592 high. Stocks – The US500 lost -0.70%, the US30 is down by -0.80% and US100 declined –0.46%. The CSI300 corrected on its return from the extended holiday, the ASX also closed slightly lower, while the Nikkei was up 0.1% at the close and the Hang Seng is 0.8% higher on the day. Commodities – USOil at $63.90 on signs of weak US demand and signals that the US may pause its interest rates increases. The lowest in more than 6-weeks on concerns over the global growth outlook. Gold – Spiked to 1 -year high at $2079. Currently presents some correction to $2033. Today – ECB policy announcement, US Jobless rate & Canadian Ivey PMI. Earnings: Apple, Coinbase, Nvidia. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GER40 (-0.87%) drifted to key support level at 15,760. MAs bearishly crossed but MACD histogram & signal line are close to 0, Stochastics is slipping & RSI at 37. ATR(H1) at 53.7 ATR(D) at 160. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted May 5, 2023 Author Share Posted May 5, 2023 Date : 5th May 2023. Events to Look Out for Next Week. Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally. Even if some of the Central Banks chaos are out of the way for now, jitters over regional banks continued to spread with PacWest, First Horizon, hit hard Western Alliance. Inflation concerns and central bankers speeches are expected to dominate next week. Focal points will be the BOE rate decision and US Inflation. Monday – 08 May 2023 BOJ Minutes (USD, GMT 23:50) – The BOJ minutes should provide guidance on the pace for further accomodative policy. Tuesday – 09 May 2023 Trade Balance (CNY, GMT 03:00) – Chinese Trade Balance for April is expected to grow by 74.30 bln from 88.19 bln. Wednesday – 10 May 2023 Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The US inflation figures are forecasted to grow by 0.4% for the headline and 0.3% for the core in April, after respective March gains of 0.1% and 0.4%. CPI gasoline prices look poised to climb 2% in April. We expect dissipating upward pressure on core prices through 2023 as disruptions from global supply chain bottlenecks and the war in Ukraine subside. As-expected March CPI figures would result in a steady y/y headline rise from 5.0%in March, versus a 40-year high of 9.1% in June. We expect the core y/y gain to slow to 5.4% from 5.6% in March, versus a 40-year high of 6.6% in September. Thursday – 11 May 2023 Consumer Price Inflation (CNY, GMT 01:30) Chinese inflation as measured by CPI is expected to rise y/y from 0.7% to 1.0%. Producer Price Index y/y is likely to decrease to -2.5%. Event of the Week – Interest Rate Decision & Statement & Press Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00) – Markets speculate that the BoE will be forced to continue hiking rates for longer than ECB and Fed. Markets are speculating that the Fed may be forced to start to cut rates in the second half of the year, while the ECB is expected to deliver two more rate hikes, which means peak rates are coming into sight. The BoE is also set to hike again next week and given that inflation remains in double digits, it will likely keep the door open to additional tightening steps, with markets seeing further hikes down the line. Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The April PPI could gain of 0.3% for the headline and 0.2% for the core, after respective figures of -0.5% and -0.1% in March. As expected readings would result in the y/y headline PPI metric easing to 2.5% from 3.2%, versus an all-time high of 11.7% in March of 2022. We expect the y/y core measure to fall to 3.2% from 3.4%, versus an all-time high 9.7% in March of 2022. The y/y calculation should fall sharply through mid-2023 as comparisons become much easier. Friday – 12 May 2023 Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00) – GDP for Q1 is expected at -0.% y/y and headline at 0.5% q/q. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted May 8, 2023 Author Share Posted May 8, 2023 Date : 8th May 2023. Market Update – May 8 – Sentiment Firming; A Cooler USD & Rising Stocks. Trading Leveraged Products is risky The USD continues under pressure (USDIndex 100.88) after a monumental week saw the FED & ECB’s 25 bp hikes (could it be the last from the FED?), another US bank failure, a jobs report beat, (253k vs 181k) and better than expected earnings, especially, from the biggest of all companies – Apple. Stocks rallied on Friday, and have followed through in Asia today, Yields cooled again with the AUD and NZD outperforming. The UK and France are closed on quiet data day. Berkshire Hathaway announced $35.5bn profits Week Ahead Topped by US CPI data (Wednesday) and the BOE Rate Decision (Thursday). FX–USDIndex continues to be biased lower, from 101.50 highs on Friday back to test support from last week at 100.88, EUR tested 1.0970 lows on Friday but recovered 1.1000 to trade at 1.1033 now. JPY rallied from 134.00, breached 135.00 but trades at 134.70 now. Sterling holds over the key break of 1.2500 last week, breached 1.2600 on Friday and is testing 1.2650 now. Stocks-US markets closed strongly (+1.65% to 2.25%) (#APPL +4.69%%, #TSLA +5.50%) – US500 closed +1.65% 4136, FUTS are trading at 4147 today and still below the key resistance at 4175 & 4150. Commodities – USOil – Futures hold onto Friday gains and trade at $71.70 as recession fears still swirl, but up from the breach of the 18-mth low at $64.00 last week. Gold – tested back into $2000 on Friday, but is up to $2020 now. Cryptocurrencies – BTC has tumbled over 5% from Friday highs over $29.6k to test $28.0k once again, today. Today – German Industrial Output (missed -3.4% vs +2.1%) , EZ Sentix, Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey, NY SCE, ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts, Speech from ECB’s Lane, Earnings from PayPal. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.29%). Continued to gain from Friday’s rally from 0.6700 to 0.6780 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive but flat, RSI 72.45, OB but also flat, H1 ATR 0.00096 Daily ATR 0.00621. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted May 9, 2023 Author Share Posted May 9, 2023 Date : 9th May 2023. Market Update – May 9 – Calm Ahead of US CPI Tomorrow. The USD ticked higher (USDIndex 101.21), with tight credit markets and business loans weak but not as bad as expected. US Stocks closed flat and Asia is subdued with little data ahead of US CPI tomorrow. Sterling came off 1-year highs but remains supported with BOE later in the week. LinkedIn announced 700 job losses and will close China app. Ueda – YCC will end when price goal achievement “foreseen”. AUD & JPY higher, EUR weighed to start the European session. Overnight – Chinese trade balance data exceeded expectations, Japanese household spending missed significantly and a key UK Retail Sales survey beat. FX – USDIndex once again found support at 100.88, currently holds over 101.00, EUR has pushed under 1.1000 from 1.1050 yesterday. JPY slips below 135.00 from a technical intra-day resistance at 135.34 earlier. Sterling declined from 1-year highs at 1.2670 yesterday but holds 1.2600 today. Stocks- US markets closed flat (-0.17% to 0.18%) (#TSN -16.41%, #AMD +5.79%) – US500 closed +2 pts 4138, FUTS are trading at 4148 today and still below the key resistance at 4175 & 4150. Commodities – USOil – Futures added to Friday’s gains and touched $73.50 and trades at $72.60 today. Gold – tested back into $2000 on Friday, but held $2020 yesterday, trades at $2025 now. Cryptocurrencies – BTC tumbled over 5.5% from Friday highs over $29.6k under the key $28k support level, and tested into $27k as BINANCE twice stalled withdraws over the weekend. Trades at $27.4k now. Today – Speeches from ECB’s Lane & Schnabel, Fed’s Williams & Jefferson. Earnings from Daimler Truck, Ubisoft, Direct Line, Airbnb & Occidental Petroleum. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.29%). Has broken a 3-day rally from 83.50 to 85.85 yesterday and is back at 85.30 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but declining, RSI 44.21 & falling, H1 ATR 0.140 Daily ATR 0.00621. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted May 10, 2023 Author Share Posted May 10, 2023 Date : 10th May 2023. Market Update – May 10 – Inflation Day. The USD has pulled back slightly to the 101.30 floor ahead of CPI today. Asian stock markets followed Wall Street lower, while European and US futures are posting modest gains as investors wait for key reports. Treasury & Bund yields are up after final German inflation data at the start of the session was confirmed at 7.6% y/y and showed that underlying inflation pressures remain too high. Coupled with hawkish comments from ECB officials, that is leaving the ECB on course to hike rates again in June. Oil prices are slightly lower at $73.03 per barrel. First Citizens and Flagstar, which bought the remnants of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, reported record profits up to $80bn in Q1 despite the turmoil. FX – USDIndex was at 101.61, has currently pulled back to 101.30. EUR slightly higher at 1.0976. JPY up for a 4th day at 135.46. Sterling lifted to 1.2630 on EU open. Stocks – Wall Street was weaker on the day and closed with small losses. The US100 was down -0.63%, with the US500 down -0.46%, and the US30 off -0.17%. #Novavax +27.79% posted positive results from a trial of flu and COVID vaccines and says it’s cutting a quarter of its workforce. #AMC +5.43%, #Harmonic +20.03% after the maker of fiber-optic and other telecommunications systems topped Wall Street expectations for its quarterly earnings. #PayPal -12.73% as its 2023 GAAP EPS guidance, of about $3.42, was below the $3.46 predicted in a FactSet-compiled analyst view. Commodities – USOil – slightly lower at 73.11 after weekly inventories showed an increase in stockpiles ahead of inflation figures that will influence the Fed’s monetary policy. Gold – corrected to $2026. Cryptocurrencies – BTC hovering around 50-day SMA, i.e. $27200. Today – US Inflation & Monthly Budget Statement. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDZAR (+1%). Has breached the 18.83 level. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive, RSI 85 & flattening, H1 ATR 0.03216 Daily ATR 0.2093. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted May 11, 2023 Author Share Posted May 11, 2023 Date : 11th May 2023. Market Update – May 11 – BOE & Sterling In Focus Following US CPI. Trading Leveraged Products is risky The USDIndex tanked to 101.00 following the cooler CPI reading yesterday and remains pressured as yields also tick lower following gains yesterday. US Stocks closed mixed and Asian markets are broadly higher. Sterling came off 1-year highs but remains supported with BOE front and centre today. NZD outperforms in Asian trading. Disney earnings disappointed (Disney+ subscriptions in particular) and shares fell -4.5% after hours. Chinese CPI data fell again (0.1% vs 0.7%) and PPI data worsened and remained deflationary and in contraction (-3.6% vs. -2.5%). Overnight – Japanese bank lending ticked higher as the BOJ continued to send the same mixed signals. Yellen opened the G7 meeting saying that a US debt impasse threatens US global leadership, and a default would produce economic, financial ‘catastrophe’ . FX – USDIndex declined from 101.50 resistance to 101.00, after US CPI broke below 5% for the first time since May 2021. Trades at 101.30) now. EUR tested and rejected 1.1000 again and trades at 1.0970. JPY slipped from 135.50 below 134.00, before recovering to 134.20 now. Sterling tested and declined from 1-year highs, again, at 1.2670 yesterday but holds 1.2600 today ahead of the expected 25 bp interest rate hike from the BOE. Stocks- US markets closed mixed (-0.09% to +1.04%) with the NASDAQ leading. (GOOGL +4.10%, AMZN +3.35% & #AXP -3.06%, #PYPL -3.83%) – US500 closed +18pts 4137, FUTS are trading at 4161 today mid-way between key resistance at 4175 & 4150. Commodities – USOil – Futures tested over $73.75 and hold $73.00 today. Gold – spiked to $2050 again, reverted to $2020 support and trades at $2030 now. Cryptocurrencies – BTC recovered the key $28k, dipped to test $26.75k lows & trades at $27.5k now. Today – US Weekly Claims & PPI, BOE Policy Announcement & Press Conference, OPEC MOMR, Speeches from US Treasury Secretary Yellen, Fed’s Waller, ECB’s Schnabel & de Guindos. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.20%). Continued to rally from the breach of 0.5600 on Monday to 0.5675 highs today, next resistance 0.5700. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 58.70 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00083, Daily ATR 0.00517. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted May 22, 2023 Author Share Posted May 22, 2023 Date : 22nd May 2023. Market Update – May 22 – US Debt Ceiling Issues Focuses Minds & Markets. The USDIndex has declined into 103.00 as the problems over the US debt ceiling enter a crunch week – President Biden to meet Kevin McCarthy today- with the US Treasury set to run out of cash on June 1. The solid front displayed at the G7 meeting saw China put on notice (despite Biden saying that US-China relations should improve “very shortly”) and unified pressure on Russia. In response China, banned chips from Micron. US stocks were flat into close on Friday, with Futures & Asian markets also directionless on little economic data today. The US500 failed to hold the 4200 level after testing 4212, has not closed at 4200 since August. All three were higher for the week. Yields are mixed with very short-term rates higher but 2yr and 10yr lower. This Week – Global PMI’s, RBNZ, FOMC Minutes, US GDP Durable Goods & Personal Income/Spending. FX – USDIndex declined under 103.00 earlier from 103.50 highs on Friday. EUR tested into 1.0750 and weekly lows on Friday back to 1.0820 now. JPY breached over 138.50 again on Friday, before sinking to 134.50 and back to 138.00 now. Sterling collapsed to test under 1.2400 on Friday but trades at 1.2450 now. Stocks- US markets closed flat on Friday (-0.14% to -0.33%). FL -27.24 after poor Earnings & weak outlook. US500 closed -6.07pts, 4191, FUTS are trading at 4200, above the key resistance at 4175. Commodities – USOil – Futures have lost close to $3 a barrel from Friday’s high, at $73.50 to $70.700 today, over debt ceiling concerns and US/China mixed messaging. Gold – reclaimed $1975 into close on Friday from a test into the $1950 zone, and holds the $1975 level to start the week. Cryptocurrencies – BTC continued to decline, today testing $26.5k lows from Thursday but trades at $26.8k now. Today – EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash), Speeches from Fed’s Bullard & Barkin, ECB’s Lane, de Guindos & Elderson. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.30%). From last week’s breach of 0.8370 lows the pair is once again testing 0.8500 at 0.8480 now. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling, RSI 62.35 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00118, Daily ATR 0.00717. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted May 24, 2023 Author Share Posted May 24, 2023 Date : 24th May 2023. Market Update – May 24 – NZD Roiled, Sterling in Focus. The USDIndex moved up to 103.50 on safe haven Dollar buying as US debt ceiling talks made little progress, with no new talks scheduled & no deal in view. US stocks lost over -1% and Yields also cooled as Treasuries got a lift. Global PMIs showed weakness but US Services were remarkably robust. Overnight the NZD tanked (-1.45%) as the RBNZ raised rates by 25 bp but signalled the end of the hike cycle. Asian stocks also fell, particularly in mainland China. Saudi Arabia warning speculators on the future of production and prices. Overnight – GBP Inflation Dump – consumer prices hotter than expected, 8.7% vs 8.2% & 10.1% prior, CORE increases to 6.8% from 6.2% and RPI 11.4% vs. 11.1% from 13.5%. PPI shrunk to 6.0% from 8.3%. FX – USDIndex spiked to 103.50, back to 103.30 now but holds the bid for a 10th day. EUR tested into 1.0760 again and holds below 1.0800 at 1.0785. JPY breached & holds 138.50, topping at 138.85 (high from November 2022) once again and holds back at 138.50 now. Cable spiked to 1.2466 following the inflation & retail sales data. The pair is back to 1.2450 now up from 1.2375 lows on Tuesday. Stocks – US markets closed much lower (-0.69% to -1.26%). TSLA -1.64%, APPL -1.52%, GOOGL -2.00%, MSFT –1.84%. US500 (-1.12%) closed -47.05 pts at 4145, FUTS are trading at 4155, below the key resistance at 4175. Commodities – USOil – Futures rallied from $70.70 again yesterday and spiked to test the $74.00 zone following hawkish comments from Saudi Arabia regarding further output cuts. Gold – has moved back to the $1975 level, once again finding buyers at the key $1950 zone. Cryptocurrencies–BTC pushed to test $27.5k (21-day EMA) yesterday before rejecting the area and moving to $26.75k now. Today – German Ifo, FOMC Minutes (May), Speeches from BOE’s Bailey, ECB’s Lagarde & Fed’s Waller. Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+2.05%). From Monday’s test of 1.9775 lows the pair has rallied over 2.0250 following the RBNZ. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 92.00 very OB & flat, H1 ATR 0.00476, Daily ATR 0.0161. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted May 25, 2023 Author Share Posted May 25, 2023 Date : 25th May 2023. Market Update – May 25 – USD & Yields at 2-month highs, Stocks weak, Nvidia blockbuster. The USDIndex moved up to breach 104.00 on more safe haven Dollar buying as US debt ceiling talks continued to grind on and FOMC minutes showed a division on the need for more rate hikes. US stocks lost over -0.6% & and are lower in Asia, NASDAQ FUTS buck the trend at +1.3% as NVIDIA reported massive demand for AI chips (shares were +24% after market close). Yields rallied, supporting the USD as 2-yr yields breached 4.4%. Overnight, the US credit agency FITCH has put the United States’ AAA long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating on negative watch due to brinkmanship over the debt ceiling. Overnight – German GDP – misses at -0.3% vs. 0.0% and the GfK Consumer Climate also missed at -24.2 vs. -23.6. FX – USDIndex has rallied to 104.00, a 2-month high and up from 100.73 lows on May 4. A stronger Dollar weighs on EUR which has tested down under 1.0730 lows today. JPY breached & holds 139.50, topping at 139.65 (a new 25-week high). Cable slipped again to 1.2330 lows today, over 130 pips lower from yesterday’s top, but has now recovered the 1.2350 handle. Stocks – US markets closed lower again (-0.61% to -0.77%). NVDA -0.49% (+24% after the market close), ANF +31%, Urban Outfitters -+17.59%, Citi -3.0% TGT –2.76%. US500 (-1.12%) closed -30.34 pts at 4115, FUTS are trading at 4149, below the key resistance at 4175. Commodities – USOil – Futures hold over the $74.00 zone following inventories which showed a huge drawdown of 12.5 million barrels vs expectations of a 1.9 million barrel build, on top of vague Saudi output cut threats. Gold – has moved back to the $1960 level, once again, having rejected a rally to $1980 and the 200-hr moving average. Cryptocurrencies–BTC pushed to test under $26k earlier, down from $27.3k highs yesterday, currently the $27k handle has been recovered and the pair trade around $27.2k. Today – US Weekly Claims, GDP (2nd reading), PCE Prices (Prelim.) CBRT & SARB Policy Announcements, Speeches from BoE’s Haskel, ECB’s Lane, de Guindos, Wunsch, Makhlouf & Vujcic, Fed’s Barkin & Collins. Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) US100.F (+1.41%) Following Nvidia Earnings the FUTS has rallied from under 13,600 low’s yesterday to 13,866 now. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 66.20 & rising, H1 ATR 52.71, Daily ATR 0.0161. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted May 26, 2023 Author Share Posted May 26, 2023 Date : 26th May 2023. Market Update – May 26 – 2-year Debt Ceiling Deal Approaching? The USDIndex holds the breach of 104.00 on news the US debt ceiling talks are progressing and a 2-year deal is possible. Strong US data yesterday also added to pressure on the FED to hike at least one more time. Susan Collins from the Boston Fed, suggested that a pause in June “may be appropriate”. Stocks were mixed, NASDAQ (+1.71%) lifted by a record +24% advance for Nvidia. Yields also rallied, with short end of the curve at 10-week highs as the 2-yr yield holds over 4.5%. Overnight, the Yen remains weighed and the Nikkei 225 outperformed following inflation data and news that the BOJ is likely to maintain the YCC until “at least next year”. Overnight – Japan – Tokyo CPI missed at 3.2% vs. 3.4% but remains much stronger than at any time in recent history, also PPI came in higher than expected at 1.6% vs 1.4%. AUD – Retail Sales added to the weak data this week missing at 0.0% vs. 0.4%, UK – Retail Sales beat (0.5% vs 0.3%) but last months data was revised lower to -1.2% from 0.9%. FX – USDIndex has rallied to 104.22, another new 2-month high. A stronger USD continues to weigh on EUR which tested down to the 1.0700 zone yesterday, trades at 1.0730 now. JPY breached 140.00 & still holds over 139.50 at 139.65 now. Cable slipped again to 1.2310 lows yesterday, recovering a little to the 1.2350 handle. Stocks – Wall Street traded mixed all day and closed that way. (-0.11% to +1.71%). NVDA +24.37%, MRVL +7.6%, DLTR -12.00%. US500 (+0.88%) closed 36.34 pts at 4151, FUTS are trading at 4159, and a third day below the key resistance at 4175. Commodities – USOil – Futures declined into $71.00 zone from $74.25 following mixed news regarding Saudi output cut threats. Gold – moved lower again, to $1937, tbut has since recovered to the key $1950 handle. Cryptocurrencies–BTC pushed to test under $26k yesterday and remain capped at $26.5k today as USD strength persists. Today – Core PCE Price Index, Core Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income & Spending, UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.24%) Following a strong rally to 140.22 giving back some gains today. MA’s aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but slipping, RSI 48.17 & neural, H1 ATR 0.152, Daily ATR 1.096. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted May 29, 2023 Author Share Posted May 29, 2023 Date : 29th May 2023. Market Update – May 29 The USDIndex retreated to 103.97 on news that Biden struck a deal with Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy that would raise the US debt ceiling and prevent an unprecedented default in early June. It still must pass the House and Senate. US and UK are closed for a holiday today, while Chinese stocks in Hong Kong extend their slump, amid concerns on geopolitics and slow recovery in China. Overnight – In an interview for WSJ, Kissinger (Former US Secretary of State) stressed that a ‘problem’ in the South China Sea could serve as a reason for the armed conflict between US and China. FX – USDIndex has pulled back to 103.94. EUR rebounded from 1.07 to 1.0739. JPY spiked to 140.92 before reverting to PP at 140.23. Cable up again to 1.2371 but still within range. Turkish lira falls after warnings from Washington regarding Erdogan’s win (as unorthodox policy, characterised by low interest rates, restrictive foreign currency regulations and high inflation will continue). Stocks – Wall street, Asia and European Stocks up for the day. JPN225 is at its highest level since July 1990. NASDAQ (+0.5%), Topix and ASX200 both rose about 1%, while Hang Seng and CSI300 are down by 0.3 and 0.6% respectively. NVDA +2.54% unveils more AI products post spectacular result on Thursday and the $184 billion rally. Currently the world’s most valuable chipmaker (worth $939.3 billion). DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.4% and 0.7% respectively. Commodities – USOil – extends gains after US officials agree on tentative debt deal, i.e. at 73.60. UKOIL climbed to 77.47. Gold – steady ahead of vote in congress for the debt ceiling at $1946. Cryptocurrencies – BTC spiked to $28430. Today – This week the US employment report will help determine whether the FOMC will hike or pause in June. China’s PMIs will give clues on the sputtering economy. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) BTCAUD (+4.26%) rallied 43519. MAs flattened, MACD histogram & signal line positive but steady, RSI 70 & neutral, H1 ATR 235.56, Daily ATR 988.59. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted May 30, 2023 Author Share Posted May 30, 2023 Date : 30th May 2023. Market Update – May 30 – Stocks Muted Ahead Of Vote. Eurozone stock markets are slightly higher, US futures outperforming as officials promote their debt ceiling deal to secure sufficient support to pass the vote in Congress, while Asian markets closed narrowly mixed. Most Asian equities declined today ahead of the deal vote but also due to the concerns regarding China’s outlook and rising tensions with the US, after Beijing declined the Pentagon’s request for a meeting between US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and China’s Defense Minister Li Shangfu at a security forum in Singapore in June. Russia launched a wave of air strikes on Kyiv today, while in Moscow videos shared on social media showed drones flying low over the Russian capital. Treasury yields declined across the curve on debt dated from 5 years to 30 years. Meanwhile as investors had started to price in a US debt deal on Friday, confirmation of the agreement should have a limited impact. FX – USDIndex has moved up to 104.48 as confidence in the debt ceiling deal strengthens. EUR dips to 1.0677, JPY retests 140.92 for a 2nd day in a row and Cable is still within its range at 1.2325 lows. Stocks – Hang Seng dropped as much as 1% today , marking the fifth day of declines and taking its losses from the Jan. 27 peak to about 20%. JPN225 closed 0.3% higher, CAC 40 is up at 0.1%, the DAX is up at 0.2%, US500 and US100 rose 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. Nvidia +2.54% and Tesla +4.72%. Commodities – USOil returned to 72.10 as the market’s risk-on sentiment cooled slightly and mixed messages from major producers clouded the supply outlook ahead of their meeting over the weekend. Gold – extended lower to $1933, leaving the doors open for a potential move to $1920 and $1900. Cryptocurrencies – BTC held yesterday’s gains above $27530. Today – Fedspeak will remain heavy before the upcoming blackout period. Barkin speaks on policy and the economy. We also have Eurozone economic confidence, US consumer confidence, home prices, the US House vote on the deal and the May reading of China’s manufacturing PMIs. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Copper (-0.60%) pullback to 3.6210. MAs flattened, MACD histogram & signal line are close to 0, RSI 42.67 & falling, H1 ATR 0.0129, Daily ATR 0.0899. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.