HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date : 31st October 2022.

Market Update – October 31- October Ends!

• USDIndex – advanced a bit this morning but held below 111.00 ahead of the Fed this week. Treasuries were hammered after still hot inflation numbers and tight labor market conditions spooked bond holders and sparked heavy profit taking at week’s end. This morning, China’s factory activity unexpectedly fell in October, JPY Retail Sales beat but Consumer confidence and Housing starts missed significantly. German retail sales rose 0.9% m/m in September.
• EUR – hovering around parity 1.0000.
• JPY – further pressure at 147.90 after BOJ decision to keep ultra-low interest rates on Friday and disappointing retail sales this morning;
• GBP – reverts from 1.1600 (75 bp increases from BOE on Thursday?)
• Stocks – Steadied after closed largely in green last week. Guidance from mega tech, including Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, earnings have generally beaten, albeit a very low bar. Chevron & Exxon beat expectations. Better revenue and profit news from Apple (up 7.6% Friday, its biggest daily jump since July 2020) helped boost investor sentiment today, while hopes the FOMC will back off aggressive rate hikes after the well expected 75 bps on Wednesday supported too.
• US30 had its 4th consecutive week higher and all markets closed +2.5% (its best month since 1976). 263 companies of S&P500 have reported, 73% have beat expectations. Today though US futures are in red.

 

• USOil – at $86.80, struggling to hold above the 20- & 50-DMA.
• Gold – set for a new drift? Currently back to $1642 area.
• BTC – back to $20.4k now.
• Reuters – Russia’s backtrack from a UN-brokered deal to export Black Sea grains is likely to hit shipments to import-dependent countries, deepening the global food crisis and sparking gains in prices. Hundreds of thousands of tonnes of wheat booked for delivery to Africa and the Middle East are at risk following Russia’s withdrawal, while Ukrainian corn exports to Europe will get knocked lower.

Today – The new month and NFP will add to the mix this week. Today European prelim. GDP for Q3, tomorrow morning RBA Rate decision and Statement. EARNINGS – Aflac, Stryker, Williams, Companies, etc. 

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.98%) Extended above 86 area as antipodean are on track for an October gain ahead of RBA tomorrow. 1-hour MAs & RSI & Stochastics flattened but MACD histogram & signal line kept well above 0. H1 ATR 0.179, Daily ATR 1.299.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 1st November 2022.

Market Update – November 1 – USD & Stocks cool following strong October.

• USDIndex – Slipped from 3-day highs at 111.50 to 110.80. Weak Factory data across Asia but stocks rally on speculation that China could be exiting zero-Covid policy. RBA ups inflation target to 8% from 7.75% and increases rates by 25bp in-line with expectations to 2.85% (7th in 7 months) mark a new 9-year high. “The path to achieving this balance (lower inflation) remains a narrow one and it is clouded in uncertainty,” Lowe. US Stocks lower (NASDAQ -1.03%) underperformed, after huge moves in October (DJIA30 +13.95%, S&P500 +7.99% & Nasdaq +3.9%). Asian markets rocket (Hang Seng +6.03%), European FUTS also higher.
• Overnight – Chinese Manu PMI’s rose but remain in contraction (49.2), JPY Manu. PMI flat at 50.7.
• EUR – dropped below 0.9900, to 0.9872 yesterday before recovering to 0.9920 earlier.
• JPY – rallied to 5-day high at 148.85 yesterday before declining to 147.75 now. It’s believed BOJ had spent $42.8b supporting the Yen in October. Today Fin Min. Suzuki said “Further sharp yen weakening is unfavourable with inflation being an issue”.
• GBP – Sterling dived from 1.1600 to 1.1460 yesterday, before recovering the key 1.1500 level today. Wide ranging tax rises and spending cuts are expected from the Nov. 17 Autumn statement. BOE 75 bp rate increase expected on Thursday.
• Stocks – Wall Street were lower with big moves for Tech stocks (META -6%) in particular. Musk sacks all directors and becomes CEO of Twitter. US500 closed -29.08 (-0.75%) at 3871, FUTS trades at 3900 now. BP lifted profits by 32% to $8.15b vs $6.16b. Toyota profits dropped 25%, Aramco profits up 39%.

 

• USOil – rallied from $85.50 lows yesterday to test $87.75 now. Biden warns of windfall taxes on non-invested profits of US oil companies.
• Gold – weaker USD helped a rally to $1650 today from $1630 yesterday.
• BTC – rotates around $20.5k, following the 14th anniversary of the Satoshi Nakamoto white paper “Bitcoin P2P e-cash Paper.”

Today – UK & US Manu. PMI, US ISM Manu. PMI, JOLTS, New Zealand Unemployment, EARNINGS – BP, (+32% beat) Marathon, Phillips 66, Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Uber & AMD.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.75%) Rallied a whole point from 0.5775 to 0.5875 today, back to 0.5860 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 63.05, having been OB, H1 ATR 0.00165, Daily ATR 0.01060.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 3rd November 2022.

Market Update – November 3 – FED – Slower Hikes but for Longer.

• The FOMC rose rates by the as expected 75bp (4th consecutive hike to 14-year highs) and suggested lower rate hikes – “time to reassess pace of rate hikes is coming” – (50bp into Dec and 25bp into Q123) but perhaps for longer, “very premature to think about pausing.” Also suggesting a higher terminal rate, (5.1%) and then Powell re-iterated that “we have some ways to go until inflation is defeated.” USD and Stocks whipsawed wildly on the two-edged communication. Also this week jobs market remains HOT, JOLTS were better & ADP at 239K was 23% over expectations – so today’s claims and tomorrow’s NFP will be key.
• USDIndex – Dived to 110.25 on initial headline, but trades 1.8% higher now at 112.23. US Stocks rallied and then tanked lower into close (NASDAQ -3.36% underperformed again). 10-yr yields flirted under 4.0% but hold at 4.06%, and the 2-10yr yield curve remains the most inverted (and therefore most recessionary in 22 years). Asian markets weaker and EUR futures flat.
• Overnight – AUD Services PMIs better than expected (49.3) & Chinese Service PMIs worse than expected (48.4) both still in contraction.
• EUR – from a spike to 0.9980 has dropped to 0.9780 now.
• JPY – dipped to 145.80 but now trades at 147.85.
• GBP – Sterling lifted to 1.1560 on the immediate FED announcement before Powell press conference took it to 1.1340 now. Today the Bank of England is expected to follow FED with a 75bp interest rate hike (biggest in 33 years and taking rates in UK to 3%)
• Stocks – Wall Street were lower with big moves for Tech stocks (AMZN -4.83%, GOOG -3.79%) in particular. US500 closed -96.08 (-2.50%) at 3756, FUTS trades at 3762 now.

 

• USOil – rallied from $87.75 lows yesterday up to $90.00, after inventory draw-down of -3.1m vs 0.2m. Prices have now dipped to $89.00.
• Gold – from a spike to $1670 yesterday, trades at week lows at $1630 today.
• BTC – slipped from $20.5k, pivot back to test 20k earlier back to 20.2k now.

Today – Swiss CPI, EZ Unemployment, US Weekly Claims, Services PMI, Factory Orders & ISM Services, Norges Bank & BoE Policy Announcements, Speeches from BoE’s Bailey & Mann, ECB’s Lagarde, de Cos, Panetta & Elderson. Earnings – Rolls-Royce, Sainsbury’s, ING, BNP, Stellantis, Euronext, ConocoPhillips, Starbucks, PayPal & Moderna.

 

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.61%) from a spike to 0.6480 now down to 0.6315 and testing 0.6300. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling, RSI 27.05, OS & falling, H1 ATR 0.00279, Daily ATR 0.01077.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 7th November 2022.

Market Update – November 7 – USD subdued & Commodities hold onto gains.

• The mixed NFP data on Friday, the rumours of China removing Zero Covid restrictions and comments from FED member Evans all combined to see a bounce in stock markets, a cooler USD and a gargantuan leap in Commodity prices. NFP head line beat at 261K vs 200k and last month was revised higher to 351k, Earnings slipped to 4.7% from 5.0% but Unemployment rose to 3.7% from 3.5%, suggesting the interest rate hikes are beginning to have an impact. The USD Index slumped to 110.70, from 112.75 highs. Stocks rallied +1.25% on Friday, but declined -1.39% to -5.65% last week. Yields moved higher (10-yr 4.163%). The major beneficiary was the Commodity Complex which leaped between 3.36%-8.00%. Evans suggested that the FED may start “thinking” about pausing, even if that did not happen until Q423. Asian stocks are firmer today despite Chinese Covid infections hitting a 6-mth high, Beijing reaffirming strict pandemic rules and a big miss for Chinese trade.
• EUR – rallied from close to hit 8-day lows on Friday at 0.9730 over 200 pips to 0.9960. Villeroy: It could take 2-3 years for inflation to return to target & rate hikes need to continue.
• JPY – has retaken 147.00 and trades at 147.40 from 146.60 NFP lows.
• GBP – Sterling tested 1.1150 again following the immediate NFP announcement but closed at 1.1370 and trades back to 1.1300 now.
• Stocks – Wall Street were higher with big moves for Tech stocks again (MSFT +3.33%, GOOG +3.85%, Alibaba +7.05%, JD.com +9.74%). US500 closed +50.02 (+1.36%) at 3770, (a loss of -3.34% for the week) FUTS trades at 3763 now. Berkshire Hathaway posted a Q3 loss of $2.69b, but operating profits beat estimates by 20% and stock investments increased by $3.7b.

 

• USOil – charged from $87.75 lows on Friday to test the $93.00 zone, rallying over 5% following all the “China opening” gossip. Back to $91.00 now.
• Gold – gained over 3.4% on Friday closing at $1680 and breaching key levels. Back to $1670 now.
• BTC – rallied with the weaker USD and risk on mood on Friday to top at $21.2k, back to $20.6k now, but holding above the key $20K level.

Today – EZ Sentix, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Panetta, BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Barkin, Mester & Collins. COP27 sees world leaders in Egypt this week and US clocks moved back 1 hour so the difference between London (GMT) & New York (ET) back to 5 hours.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.72%) reversing some of Friday’s rally to 0.5935, from 0.5740 on Thursday, and trades at 0.5875 now. MAs unaligned & flat, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling, RSI 50.00 & neutral, H1 ATR 0.00198, Daily ATR 0.01077.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 8th November 2022.

Market Update – November 8 – US Midterms Election Day.

• The USD Index slipped further to test 110.00 yesterday, a -2.65% decline from Thursday’s high at 113.00, trades at 110.25 today. Stocks rallied another +1.00%, Yields moved higher again (10-yr 4.163%) and the Commodity Complex cooled from Fridays rally as Beijing reaffirmed its strict pandemic rules. Overnight the Crypto Complex has tanked with BTCUSD down from $21k to under $19.5k.

Markets are pricing in a “lame-duck” President Biden for the final 2-yrs of his administration as Republicans are likely to take control of the House of Representatives, with likely curbs on the debt ceiling, spending cuts and action to support energy companies, as inflation bites into businesses and households. A loss of the Senate too for President Biden would completely restrict any political actions regarding immigration, additional support for Ukraine and environmental policies. TRUMP “Big announcement” November 15.
 

• EUR – continued to rally yesterday and breached the hugely psychological parity 1.0000 level.
• JPY – dipped to 146.10 lows from 147.50 and remains capped by 147.00 today.
• GBP – Sterling rallied over 200 pips again yesterday from 1.1300 to over 1.1540, but has since sunk below 1.1500.
• Stocks – Wall Street closed higher, tech led again META +6.53%, (job cuts) GOOG & MFST over +2.2% and TSLA –5.01%. US500 closed +36.25 (+0.96%) at 3806, FUTS trades at 3808 now.

 

• USOil – spiked over $93.00, yesterday before slipping to close at $92.00 and lower again now at $91.40.
• Gold – once again tested Friday’s close at $1680 before drifting to $1675 into close and $1670 now.
• BTC – drifted from $21.2k, top Monday to $20.5k at close, before tankingto $19.3k lows today as FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried and Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao trade allegations. It traces back to FTT coin, which is FTX’s token and a report from CoinDesk that says Bankman-Fried’s trading company Alameda Research has about $6 billion of its $14.6 billion assets in the coin, which his other company created.¹

Today – EZ Retail Sales, US Midterms, Speeches from BoE’s Pill (x2), Fed’s Williams, ECB’s Nagel & SNB’s Jordan.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.47%) rallied yesterday from an initial dip, beyond Friday’s high to 0.5952, to 0.5900 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling, RSI 41.42 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00114, Daily ATR 0.01091.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 9th November 2022.

Market Update – November 9 – USD Weaker, Stocks Firmer, Crypto Crash, Republicans set to win the House.

• The USD Index slipped further to test 109.20 yesterday, and trades at 109.60, at today. Stocks moved higher again (DOW +1.00%) and Yields held at recent highs. The Crypto Complex has tanked with BTCUSD down from $20.5k to under $16.8k, lows before recovering, as leading crypto exchange FTX was forced to sell out to rival Binance. Asian shares have slipped too (Nikkei -0.56%, Hang Seng -1.88%). Chinese Inflation was mixed with CPI cooling to 2.5% from 2.4% but PPI -1.3% vs -1.5%.

Mid Term election results are suggesting a win for the Republicans in the House (but not the Red Wave landslide some had predicted) while the Senate remains very close with a key win in Pennsylvania for the Democrats. A gridlocked Washington, even if the Democrats hold-on to control in the Senate, which many assume will be beneficial for stock-markets and see a weaker USD appears to be the most likely outcome.
 

• EUR – continued to rally yesterday and tested the next resistance at 1.0100, and trades at 1.0060, holding the hugely psychological parity 1.0000 level.
• JPY – dipped again breaching 146.00 to 145.25 lows and trades at 145.85.
• GBP – Sterling dipped to 1.1440, but then rallied to test 1.1600 and holds at 1.1540 now.
• Stocks – Wall Street rallied over 1.75% from open, gave up all their gains and then clawed back 0.5-1.0%. Big movers included COIN -10.78%, LYFT -22.9% and TSLA -2.93% (Musk sold $3.95bn shares). US500 closed +21 (+0.56%) at 3828, FUTS trades at 3827 now.

 

• USOil – rejected $93.00, collapsed through $90.00 and trades at $88.50 now.
• Gold – spiked from $1665 lows, over $1680 and $1700 resistance to trade at $1710.
• BTC – crashed to $16.8k from $20.5k, before recovering to $18.3k now. FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried was forced to sell his exchange to rival Binance as a run on FTT coin, which is FTX’s token and Bankman-Fried’s trading company Alameda Research. The company was valued at $32b at the beginning of 2022.

Today – US Mid Term Election Results, Speeches from Fed’s Williams & Barkin, ECB’s Elderson, BoE’s Haskel.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.42%) rallied yesterday from an initial dip, to 0.5900 to test 0.6000 but now is down again to 0.5935. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling, RSI 49.00 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00156, Daily ATR 0.01070.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 10th November 2022.

Market Update – November 10 – All About CPI, Congress to be Split & Crypto Carnage.

• The USD Index recovered to 110.50 yesterday as the expected Republican “Red Wave” in the US Mid Term elections did not materialise. They will, however, likely take control of the House of Representatives, though the Senate may not be decided until after the Georgia runoff 8th December. Stocks fell significantly (1.95-2.48%) and Yields held at recent highs. The Crypto Complex tanked again as Binance withdrew its offer to bail out FTX and CEO, Bankman-Fried has filed for bankruptcy, and personally owes lenders over $650M. BTCUSD trades at $16.8k. Australian Inflation Expectations were hotter than expected at 6.0% vs. 5.4%. Asian markets followed Wall St. lower.
• EUR – declined from resistance at 1.0100, and tested the hugely psychological parity 1.0000 level.
• JPY – rotates through 146.00 from 145.25 lows and 146.75 highs.
• GBP – Sterling dipped to 1.1330 from 1.1550 yesterday but remains capped by 1.1400.
• Stocks – Wall Street broke a strong 3-day rally losing over 60% of recent gains. Big movers included DIS -13.16%, OXY -9.22% and TSLA -7.17%. META +5.18% (11k job loss announcement). US500 closed -79.54 (-2.08%) at 3748, FUTS trades at 3755 now.

 

• USOil – fell significantly again from $89.00 yesterday to $85.25 now. Inventories grew to +3.9m vs 0.3m and a drawdown last week of over -3.1m
• Gold – held onto its significant recent gains over $1700 and trades at $1705.
• BTC – crashed to $15.4k and more than a 2-year lows (Nov. 2021 over $60.0k). Binance walked away from the offer to buy FTX on due diligence concerns. FTX was valued at $32b at the beginning of 2022. Contagion continues COIN fell another 9.58% yesterday after Tuesday 10% fall and Robinhood has shed 32% of its value so far this week.

Today – US CPI, Weekly Claims. Speeches from Fed’s Waller, Harker, Logan, Daly, Mester, George & Williams, BOE’s Tenreyro, ECB’s de Cos, Schnabel, SNB’s Maechler.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.64%) rallied yesterday from an initial dip below 1.7600 yesterday to test 1.7780 now, next resistance 1.7800. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 61.64 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00274, Daily ATR 0.02113.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 11th November 2022.

Market Update – November 11 – Gigantic day in stocks and bonds.

• The USD Index was the big loser on the day, plunging 3 big figures to a low of 107.67 from an intraday high of 110.99 before the data. Though it recovered marginally to close at 108.20, that is the lowest close since mid-September. Stocks skyrocketed significantly adding to expectations for a stepdown in Fed rate hikes and a paring in projections for the terminal rate. Yields dived 30 bps in the belly to 3.938% on the 5-year. The 10-year was down 27 bps to 3.813%. It was the first close under 4% since October 27. The 2-year yields had their biggest drop since 2008.
• EUR – rally above parity and currently at 1.0230.
• JPY – drifted to 140.19 from 146.50 high. Biggest fall since 1998.
• GBP – Sterling spiked to 1.1736 post US CPI data. This morning, GDP showed that the UK economy contracted less than expected in the third quarter.
• Stocks – Wall Street broke 2-month resistance. US100 rocketed 7.35% higher to 11,114, with the US500 surging 5.54% to 3,956, while the US30 was up 3.70% to 33,715. This was the strongest percentage pop in over two years.

 

• USOil – higher at $88.60 from $84.73.
• Gold – had its best week since March, spiking to 1760, has risen 4.2% so far in the week.
• BTC – Crypto crisis continues, however yesterday Bitcoin reverted some losses turning at 17940.

Today – European Commission releases Economic Growth Forecast, Michigan Sentiment, ECB’s Panetta, Guindos & Lane Speech.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.82%) rallied from 0.6390 low yesterday to 0.6659 now, next resistance 0.6700. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 72 & flat, H1 ATR 0.0025, Daily ATR 0.0118.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 14th November 2022.

Market Update – November 14.

• The USD Index closed at 106.389 but had tumbled to a low of 106.28 from an overnight high of 108.44. It’s down from 112.93 on the November 3 FOMC day. Stocks extended gains at the Friday close with another solid session, albeit in choppy action amid worries over the bankruptcy of FTX. Yields – 10-year Treasury yield is up 6.7 bp at 3.88%, EGB yields are correcting from the highs seen on Friday, however the ECB remains on course to tighten rates beyond neutral and start QT next year.
• EUR – above parity at 1.0320.
• JPY – sideways at 139.50.
• GBP – turned below 1.1800.
• Stocks – US100 to a 1.88% surge, while the US500 was up 0.92%. The US30 edged up 0.1%. The components of the US500 were mixed but a 3% pop in energy and a 2.46% jump in consumer discretionary sectors helped overcome losses in health care and utilities. Today, stocks struggled a bit and corrected some of last week’s gains, although China bourses got a boost from official directives aimed at supporting the ailing property sector, which added to the slight easing of virus restrictions that were announced last week. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently up 1.8% and 0.2% respectively, after Nikkei and ASX closed with losses of -1.1% and -0.2%, weighed down by financials data. GER40 and UK100 futures are up 0.2% and 0.1%.
• Reuters reported that Chinese regulators have told financial institutions to extend more support to property developers to shore up the struggling real estate sector.
• USOil – at $88.40.
• Gold – had its best week since March, currently holds gains at 1763.
• BTC – slipping into the $16,000 area again.

Today – Xi & Biden in Bali for G20 meeting. SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks & FOMC Member Brainard Speaks



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) BTCUSD (+1.12%) rebounded to 16890 but struggling to break 50-hour SMA. MAs aligning higher, MACD lines still negative, RSI 53 & flat indicating that this might be a limited bounce. H1 ATR 313.46, Daily ATR 1334.606.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 15th November 2022.

Market Update – November 15 – It’s a real mix!


 

• The USDIndex extended declines today below 106.00. Treasury yields closed higher but off their early peaks. Positioning is playing an important part after huge post-CPI rallies. Hawkish comments from the Fed’s Waller have pressured yields sharply higher as a lot of last week’s rally is unwound (remember Treasuries were closed Friday). And the lack of a more dovish lean from Fed VC Brainard sustained the erosion.
• Stocks are managing gains, as markets are also buying into hopes of easing tensions between Beijing and Washington, amid a face-to-face meeting between Biden and Xi Jinping, with speculation that improved co-operation will limit the risk that Chinese companies will be de-listed in the US. Confidence in the Chinese economy is returning after officials moved to ease some virus restrictions and offered more support for the beleaguered property sector, despite retail sales contracting in October.
• EUR – extends to 1.040 amid risk on.
• JPY – holds below 140.00. Japan GDP unexpectedly contracted in the third quarter.
• GBP – steady at 1.1800. UK wages rise at quickest pace in a year as hiring advances. But unemployment rises at 3.6% from 3.5% (3m/y). Sterling strengthens ahead of the full fiscal plan that is due this week.
• Stocks – Nikkei and ASX closed narrowly mixed, after a lower close on Wall Street yesterday, but US futures are also managing gains, and the GER40 is up 0.4%. The UK100 is essentially treading water though. Amazon down by 2.3% as it is preparing layoffs that could total about 10,000 workers as the company continues a broad cost-cutting review led by Chief Executive Andy Jassy. (Reuters)
• USOil – at $84.90
• Gold – jumps to 1783.60, 3rd day above 200-day SMA.

Today – German ZEW and European prelim. Q3 GDP.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) XAUUSD broke week’s resistance, extending above 1780. MAs aligning higher, MACD lines flattened, RSI 73 & rising. H1 ATR 3.72, Daily ATR 28.76.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 16th November 2022.

Market Update – November 16 – Risk aversion picked up.

• The USDIndex’s safe-haven gains fizzled and held at the low 106.00 area. Yields had plunged on the PPI data, but 5-year closed at 3.890%, the 2-year at 4.326%, and the 10-year at 3.772%, respectively. Stocks supported by cooler PPI but pressured afterwards as news of a Russian-made missile strike in Poland sparked fears of heightened geopolitical tensions. US President Biden who said the missile was unlikely to have been fired by Russia helped to calm nerves.
• EUR – retests once again the 1.040.
• JPY – holds at 139.50, while Risk-sensitive Antipodeans, AUDUSD is up at 0.6782, and NZDUSD at 0.6175. Australian wages boasted the largest rise in a decade last quarter as a super-tight labour market finally made itself felt, raising the risk of further rate hikes.
• GBP – steady at 1.1860 – UK CPI jumped to 11.1% y/y in October from 10.1% y/y in the previous month. Core inflation failed to decelerate as anticipated and held steady at 6.5% y/y.

 

• Stocks – closed in the green with gains of 1.45% on the US100, 0.87% on the US500, and 0.17% on the US30. But they are well off of early highs where the future showed the US100 knee-jerking nearly 3% on the data, while the US500 was up 1.9%, with the US30 up over 1.1%. Better than expected earnings/guidance from Walmart and hopes for a bounce in Chinese growth supported too.
• USOil – at $85.95
• Gold – jumps to 1787, but steady so far today.

Today: US Retail Sales and Canadian Inflation along.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURJPY retested the 145.30 highs, MAs aligning higher, MACD line turned positive but signal line remains below 0, RSI 59 btu flattened. H1 ATR 0.391, Daily ATR 1.691.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 17th November 2022.

Market Update – November 17 – “Recession is a threat”.


Recession is a threat, as suggested by the inverted yield curve, and some recent earnings reports, including Target today, reflect the various headwinds hitting the economy. Geopolitical risks from Ukraine are lingering too.
 

• The USDIndex’s steady 106.25 after ranging from 105.34 to 107.10. (heavy data calendar saw stronger than expected retail sales, weaker than forecast industrial production, with a further big drop in the NAHB) Yields close lower with, 10-year yield down 13 bps at 3.669%, after a high of 3.84%. The 30-year was 12.5 bps lower at 3.837%. The curve inversion deepened further to -68 bps, not seen since early 1981. Stocks
• Fed’s Waller: “more comfortable considering stepping down to a 50 bp hike“. But he added he will not be making that decision until he sees more data. Waller has been one of the most hawkish on the FOMC so these remarks are significant. VS Fed Daly repeated a pause in hikes is off the table for now and reiterated Chair Powell’s comment that it is not even a point of discussion currently, in a CNBC interview.
• EUR – choppy at 20-day SMA. Bloomberg source story effectively confirmed that the ECB will slow its tightening cycle and deliver a 50 bp move in December.
• JPY – holding below 140, but there is speculation that the correction in the dollar is running out of steam
• AUDUSD holds gains above 0.6700 – Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 3.4%, employment lifted to a record high and part time employment declined. More signs of a tight labour market that will add to inflation concerns, especially after higher than expected data on wage growth yesterday.

 

• Stocks –Wall Street ended in the red with weakness concentrated in the US100 and the US500 following a very poor earnings report from Target. Nikkei and ASX closed narrowly mixed. PBOC warned that inflation may go higher as demand pickes up, with Hong Kong tech stocks most hit, by comments that dented hopes of further sizeable support from the central bank and Beijing officials for the economy. GER40 and UK100 are up 0.4% and 0.1% respectively.
• USOil – Energy weighed on the USOIL prices fell -1.88% to $85.29.
• Gold – drifted to $1760 on USD strength and pick up of Treasury yields.

Today: UK Autumn Statement, US Housing Stats & Building Permits.



Biggest FX Mover @palladium -0.90% (06:30 GMT) drifted to 2017 but rebounded this morning. MAs aligning flattened, MACD lines remain negative & RSI at 44 indicating that bearish bias holds. H1 ATR 11.64, Daily ATR 100.72.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 18th November 2022.

Market Update – November 18 – Tough talks to rescue Dollar?


 

• USDIndex peaked to 107.20 but it lost altitude into the close, now at 106.40. The hawkish outlook from the Fed’s Bullard weighed on bonds and stocks, though the markets managed to pare losses late in the day. Bullard stressed that the funds rate needs to go higher and into restrictive territory and suggested a worst case scenario of 7%. Yields – 10-year climbed to 3.80% before dipping to 3.767%.
• Stocks –choppier but was generally underwater due to the Fed outlook, recession fears, and ongoing geopolitical risks. But losses were trimmed, leaving the US100 down -0.35%, the US500 off -0.31%, and the US30 fractionally lower.

 

• EUR – choppy at 1.038, struggling to break 200-day SMA.
• JPY – holding below 140.
• GBP – holds above 1.1900, as UK retail sales rebounded in October. However, Sales are down more than 6% on the year on both measures and the data are a flagging the impact inflation and the erosion of real disposable income are having on overall activity. GDP already contracted in the third quarter of the year and the fourth quarter is likely to be worse. Chancellor Hunt did his best to sell his budget as measured and appropriate, but the prospect of a rising tax burden just as mortgage costs are on a steep incline will hit consumption and overall growth further.
• USOil – down -5% to $81.20, impacted by the stronger dollar earlier, as well as on fears a recession will crimp demand along with signs that supply chains are easing.
• Gold – down to $1760 on very hawkish Bullard.

Today: ECB’s President Lagarde, German Buba President Nagel & BoE’s Haskel speeches



Biggest FX Mover @NZDUSD +0.61%% (06:30 GMT) bounced to 0.6170. MAs aligning flattened, MACD lines remain positive & RSI at 62 but flat indicating that bullish bias might run out of steam. H1 ATR 0.00144, Daily ATR 0.01107.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 21st November 2022.

Market Update – November 21 – USD continues to recover.
 

 

• The USD Index continues to recover, back over 107.00 to 107.45, next resistance today 107.70 and the 200-hrMA as risk appetite sours in Asia with more COVID cases in Beijing and a rise in deaths. Stocks lower & Oil at 2-mth lows to start the week. Chinese PBOC kept rates unchanged at 3.65%. More Hawkish talk from Fed officials (Bostic believes that another 75bps-100bps tightening will be warranted and sufficient to rein in inflation) – helped the USD sentiment.
• EUR – declined from 200- day resistance at 1.0385, ao Friday and is under 1.0300 today at 200-hr MA at 1.0270.
• JPY – moves away from 140.00 zone to 140.75 next resistance 141.00.
• GBP – Sterling dips to test 1.1800 today down from 1.1950 highs on Friday and a rejection of 1.2000 last week.
• Stocks – Wall Street closed flat on Friday, TSLA -1.63%. on product recalls and worries over MUSK workload. US500 was best performer +18.78 (+0.48%) at 3965, FUTS trades at 3960 now.

 

• USOil – fell significantly again to $77.75 Friday before recovering over $80.00. But is subdued today under $80.00, following risk off mood to start the week.
• Gold – continued to decline from last week’s $1780 highs, trades at $1745 now at the 200-hr MA support.
• BTC – Sentiment woes continue – FTX owes $3bln to top 50 creditors (no.1 reportedly owed $222m). Trades down to $16k.

Today – German PPI much weaker than expected at -4.2% vs 0.9%, Speech from BOE’s Cunliffe and NZD trade data.
 

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURUSD (-0.64%) declined again today under 1.0300 and down to next support (200-Hr MA) at 1.0270. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling, RSI 32.060 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00171, Daily ATR 0.01430.
 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 22nd November 2022.

Market Update – November 22 – China Covid Worries Puncture Sentiment.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

• The USD Index holds onto recent gains at 107.50, but unable to break resistance at 107.80. Asian markets further impacted with more COVID cases across China (Guangzhou reports over 8,200) and a rise in deaths. Stocks lower & USOil tested $75.00 zone, Saudi denying reports they were looking to increase production. Kishida – FX policy up to BOJ will not interfere, a weak JPY has both “merits & demerits” USDJPY 142.00. Crypto firm Genesis has approached Binance & Apollo GM for investment but denies it is planning to file for bankruptcy – WSJ.
• EUR – holds under 1.0300 and below 200-hr MA (1.0260) at 1.0250.
• JPY – rallied over 1.1% yesterday from 140.00 zone to 142.20 highs. Holds 1.4200 today – BOJ Core CPI y/y much stronger than expected at 2.7% vs. 2.2% & 2.0% last month.
• GBP – Sterling holds at 1.1800
• Stocks – Wall Street closed lower, NASDAQ worst performer -1.09%. TSLA -6.84% on product recalls & MUSK workload follow through, COIN -8.9% (FTX Contagion), DIS +6.3% (Iger’s return). US500 –15.40 (-0.39%) at 3949, FUTS trades at 3955 now.

 

• USOil – fell significantly again to $75.25 yesterday before recovering to $80.00 again. Saudi Arabia denying reports they were looking to increase production within & and outside OPEC, said the current cut of 2mln BPD is to continue until the end of 2023.
• Gold – continued to decline yesterday to $1733 lows, trades at $1742 now at the 200-hr MA support.
• BTC – Sentiment woes continue, FTX contagion spreading? – Genesis denying bankruptcy talk. Traded down to $15.4k, yesterday, back to 15.7k now.

Today – EZ Consumer Confidence Flash, Australian PMIs Flash, Speeches from Fed’s Bullard, George, Mester & ECB’s Rehn.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.64%) recovered from a new move below 0.6100 yesterday, and trades at 0.6120 now, next resistance at 0.6145. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line negative but rising, RSI 54.60 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00105, Daily ATR 0.01040.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 23rd November 2022.

Market Update – November 23 – USD Slips, Stocks Higher, RBNZ add 75bp, FOMC Minutes to come.

• The USD Index slipped from over 107.50, to below 107.00, as stocks closed over 1% higher and Asian markets followed the US into positive territory, even as Chinese covid cases continue to climb. The RBNZ lifted interest rates in line with expectations to 4.25% from 3.5% in a hawkish hike expectations for terminal rate was lifted significantly to 5.5-5.75%. (NZD outperforming in Asian session). AUD PMI’s data missed and prosecutors called FTX a “personal fiefdom” of Sam Bankman-Fried, had “substantial” assets missing & highlighted his parents & senior staff with Bahamian property worth over $300m.
• EUR – retakes 1.0300 from 1.0225 lows yesterday to trade at 1.0225.
• JPY – eased from 142.20 highs to under 141.00 – trades at 141.20 now.
• GBP – Sterling held the 1.1800 support and rallied to test 1.1900 now. The UK’s economy is set to be the worst performer in the G20 bar Russia over the next two years, according to the OECD.
• Stocks – Wall Street closed over 1%+ NASDAQ & S&P500 +1.36%. Exxon & Chevron best performers. US500 +53.64 (+1.36%) closing over 4000 at 4003, for the first time since September 12 (50 trading days), FUTS trades at 4009 now.

 

• USOil – Rallied to $82.00 and trades at $81.50 now, after shaking off increase production talk earlier in the week. Inventories are expected to decline by 2.6m barrels this week following last week’s outsized 5.4m barrel drawdown.
• Gold – Rotating around $1740 but has once again tested to $1733 lows, trades at $1744 now at the 200-hr MA.
• BTC – Sentiment woes continue, but a rally from 2-yr lows at $15.4k in the last 24hr has pushed the price to 200hr MA at $16.5k.

Today – FOMC Mins. (Fed signaling that interest rates will continue to rise but at a slower pace?), EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs, US Durable Goods, Weekly Claims, New Home Sales, Speeches -ECB’s de Guindos & BoE’s Pill,

  

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.54%) recovered from a new move below 0.8200 earlier, and trades at 0.6265 now, next resistance at 0.8275 & 0.8300. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 62.88 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00188, Daily ATR 0.0083.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 24th November 2022.

Market Update – November 24 – FOMC Mins. & Data conspire to sink USD.

• The USD Index has collapsed from over 107.80 on Monday to 105.50 today.

FOMC Mins. – Confirmed that a “substantial majority” believed slowing in the pace of increases would likely soon be appropriate. That largely confirms what has been priced in, with a 50 bp increase fully priced in for December and “significant uncertainty” about the ultimate level of the funds rate. “Various participants” (Bullard , Mester, etc no doubt) noted that with few signs of inflation abating and demand and supply still out of balance, they suspected the ultimate level of the funds rate would have to be “somewhat higher” than previously seen. Powell seemed to confirm this at the press conference.

Earlier Weekly Claims jumped to a 240k and the Continuing Claims hit a high not seen since March. Whilst Durable Goods were stronger than expected, PMI data missed. The mixed news gave a lift to stocks, weighed on the Dollar and saw yields drop too. US10-yr closed at 3.69%, with the 2/10 yr inversion at -79 bps.
 

• EUR – rallied to over 1.0400 an 8-day high at 1.0448 earlier.
• JPY – eased all the way down to 138.50 zone from over 141.60 yesterday. JPY PMI missed and moved back into contraction at 49.4 from 50.7.
• GBP – Sterling rallied on the weaker USD breaking & breaching the key 1.2000 slevel and testing 1.2080.
• Stocks – Wall Street closed in the green (NASDAQ +0.99%) TSLA +7.82% (upgrade from CITI to Neutral from Sell). In the UK Manchester United shares rallied +26.8% on news the Glazier family could be willing to sell some or all of their holdings). US500 +23.68 (+0.59%) 4027, FUTS trades at 4042 now. – https://themarketear.com/

 

• USOil – Sank from $81.50 and trades at $77.50 now. G7 proposed price cap higher than expected. Inventories declined by 3.7m barrels this week more than the 2.6m expected but much less than last week’s outsized 5.4m barrel drawdown.
• Gold – Tested down to $1725 before recovering $1750 to trade at $1755 now.
• BTC – Sentiment woes continue, but holds $16.6k today capped at $16.8k.

Today – German Ifo, ECB Minutes, (Riksbank, CBRT & SARB Policy Announcements), Speeches from BoE’s Pill, Ramsden, Mann, ECB’s Schnabel & de Guindos.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.60%) continued to decline from the test of 142.00 earlier this week. Trades at 138.50. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling, RSI 24.75 & OS, H1 ATR 0.293, Daily ATR 2.230.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 28th November 2022.

Market Update – November 28 – Global risk appetite is back.

• The USDIndex held fractionally lower below 106.00 following a short week and a hit in risk sentiment and stoked uncertainty.
• USDJPY drifted by 0.80% to 138 in a blow to risk appetite, by protests in China, a manufacturing powerhouse and Southeast Asia’s top trading partner, which flared for a third day and spread. – How will the government react to the wave of civil disobedience when COVID cases are rising ?
• Chinese Stocks & Yuan slump! – The dissent toward President Xi is greater than ever, as protestors in Shanghai urge for Xi resignation.
• Stocks – Wall Street closed in the red, while it has gapped down today as global equities tumbled on China unrest (NASDAQ -0.52%, S&P -0.03%. Apple set to lose 6 million Iphones professionals from tumult at China plant (Friday’s close -1.96%) – production could slump by 30% in its main Zhengzhou plant in central China.
• EUR – rebounded to 1.0395.
• GBP – holds below 200-day SMA, at 1.2065.

 

• USOil – -3.11% tumbled from 2-month support at $75 to $73.90 today, as China’s covid zero policy is put to the test, clouding the energy demand outlook.
• Gold – at $1750, under pressure along with the overall commodity market.
• BTC – slumps as uncertainty prevails. Currently at $16,168.

Today – There is a heavy data calendar that includes nonfarm payrolls on Friday. ECB President Lagarde & FOMC Member Bullard speak today.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-1.80%), used as a liquid proxy for the Yuan declined to 92.14. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling, RSI 22 & OS, H1 ATR 0.2566, Daily ATR 0.9899.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 29th November 2022.

Market Update – November 29 – Tightening Tilt, COVID Control & Month End Flows.

• The USDIndex rallied to 106.70 in the previous session but formed a correction in Asia session to 106.00 ahead of a COVID-19 press briefing in China that is spurring hopes of a potential easing in the country’s strict pandemic restrictions.
• Fed Officials Signal Higher rates: Hawkish reminders from key Fed officials Williams, Bullard, and Brainard that rates will have to go higher helped weigh on the markets in Monday action. Wall Street was weaker overnight on the back of Williams’s and Bullard’s comments, and slipped further as Brainard tripled down on the rate outlook.
• US houses prices fall like in 2008.
• Stocks – Global stocks rise after yesterday’s dip. US100 and US500 dropped -1.58% and 1.54%, respectively, with the US30 off -1.45% amid broadbased weakness. Today however the rumours of an earlier easing of strict COVID-19 restrictions along wihth vaccinations for over 80-year olds, found buyers in the stock market with a Chinese stocks rebound. Hang Seng and CSI 300 bounced 4% and 3% respectively. ASX and Nikkei closed narrowly mixed. GER40 and UK100 futures are up 0.5% and 0.4% respectively.
• EUR – reversed from 5-month peak. Currently at 1.0360. ECB’s Lagarde said overnight that inflation had not peaked and it risks turning out even higher than currently expected, hinting at a series of interest rate hikes ahead.
• JPY along with Yuan, Aussie and Kiwi on bid.
• GBP – turns again below 1.20 at 1.1987.
• USOil – jumps to 80.00 as China refines its approach for dealing with protest and Covid control. All eyes are on weekend OPEC+ meeting. EU fails to agree on Russian oil price cap once again.
• Gold – fully recovered yesterday’s losses, currently at $1754.

Today – Swiss GDP, German HICP , Canadian Q3 GDP, US Consumer Confidence and BOE Governor Bailey speech.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+1.10%), bounces to 0.6235. MAs aligning higher and RSI at 63 but MACD histogram & signal line remain below 0. H1 ATR 0.00147, Daily ATR 0.00962.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 30th November 2022.

Market Update – November 30.

• USDIndex slightly below 1-week amid reports of a softer stance on Covid emerging in China’s official rhetoric, which is keeping hopes alive that there won’t be a move back to tighter restrictions. All eyes are on an expected hawkish stance from Chair Powell’s speech today.
• Stocks – The Nikkei closed with a -0.2% loss, the ASX managed a 0.4% gain and Hang Seng and CSI300 are currently up 1.1% and 0.1% respectively. GER40 and UK100 futures are up 0.6% and 0.4% respectively. US futures are underperforming, but also managing slight gains. Wall Street closed mixed with the NASDAQ dropping -0.59% on weakness in tech and the rise in yields.
• Japan’s factory output fell for a 2nd consecutive month in October, and China’s factory activity contracted at a faster pace in November, weighed down by softening global demand.
• JPY – is holding in the 138-139 range.
• USOil – supported ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on December 4. Energy was lifted by easing in China jitters.
• AUD & NZD downward pressure from worse than expected Chinese manufacturing surveys.
• Gold – extends gain to $1757.

Today – Attention is on Powell’s speech later today, who is likely to reinforce yesterday’s hawkish Fedspeak from Williams, Bullard, and Mester who all stressed rates are headed higher still and could remain so for some time. Elsewhere is EU HICP, US ADP and Q3 GDP.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (-0.25%), declined to 1.7816 from 1.7930. MAs aligning lower and RSI at 34.8 and MACD histogram & signal line remain below 0. H1 ATR 0.00267, Daily ATR 0.01538.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 1st December 2022.

Market Update – December 1 – Powell Sparks Stock & Treasury Rally & Sinking USD.

• The USD Index has tanked to 105.30 lows today from over 107.10 as Chair Powell more or less confirmed a 50bp hike at the next FED meeting, was sanguine about the terminal rate being over 5% and reiterated (again) that the fight to bring down inflation was far from over. He was as Hawkish as had been expected. Stocks & Treasuries ripped higher with optimism about China’s reopening prospects even after mixed US data yesterday.
• EUR – retakes 1.0450 from under 1.0300 lows yesterday..
• JPY – collapsed to under 136.00 today from 139.85 highs yesterday –
• GBP – Sterling rallied over 200 pips from 1.1900 support and lows to 1.2110 now.
• Stocks – Wall Street erupted higher 2.18%-4.41% (NASDAQ best performer) – US500 +122.48 (+3.09%) closed over 4000 at 4080, has gained 13.8% in 2 months and is over it’s 200MA for the first time in 7 months. FUTS trades at 4085 now.

 

• USOil – Rallied to $81.50 and trades at $80.00 now. Inventories showed a huge 12.6m drawdown.
• Gold – Rallied to $1780 from $1745 lows, trades at $1776 now.
• BTC – Sentiment woes continue, SFB “I didn’t try to commit fraud”.. Weaker USD takes it over 17K.

Today – German Retail Sales, EZ, UK & US Final Manufacturing PMI, US ISM, Weekly Claims, PCE Price Index, EU Council President Michel visits China, Speeches from Fed’s Barr, Bowman & Logan, ECB’s Lane & Elderson.

 

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+1.57%) rallied from under 0.6200 yesterday and trades at 0.6320 now, next resistance at 0.6350. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 65.00 & falling having been OB, H1 ATR 0.00203, Daily ATR 0.0083.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 2nd December 2022.

Market Update – December 2 – USD holds at lows & Stocks at Highs Ahead of NFP.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

• The USD Index holds at lows not seen since August & June at 104.50 and significantly below the 200-day MA at 105.40. Weaker PCE inflation, lower JOLTS numbers, but tempered by a miss for Weekly Claims all added to pressure for yields too. 2/10 yr remains inverted by 71 bps. Stocks finished flat, Asian markets also flat except Nikkei (-1.59%) as JPY soars. All eyes on NFP; Consensus is a headline of 200k, less than 120k-150k and the USD could slip further, over 250-300k could lift the Greenback.
• EUR – broke over key psychological 1.0500 and holds at 5-mth highs at 1.0530 now.
• JPY – collapsed to under 135.00 today and trades at 134.60 from 139.85 on Wednesday, hitting Japanese stocks.
• GBP – Sterling rallied again to breach 1.2300, briefly and post 5-month highs. Trades at 1.2260 now.
• Stocks – Wall Street held on to Wednesday’s gains closing flat – US500 -3.54 (-0.09%) 4076, Big movers included losses for CRM -8.27%, COST -6.56%, Blackstone -7.06%. FUTS trades at 4076 now too.

 

• USOil – Rallied again (4 consecutive days) to breach $83.00 before cooling to $81.25 now. OPEC meet over weekend and into Monday possibly
• Gold – Rallied to and broke the key $1800 and holds at $1802 now.
• BTC – Sentiment woes continue, but a weaker USD means it holds at 17k.

Today – US & Canadian Jobs Reports, EZ Producer Prices, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde & de Guindos, Fed’s Barkin & Evans. 

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.52%) rallied again to test 0.6400 today from 0.6300 yesterday and lows on Monday at 0.6150. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling, RSI 69.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00127, Daily ATR 0.0083.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 5th December 2022.

Market Update – December 5 – Dollar slips, Gold hovers around $1800.

• USDIndex back to 104 area for the 1st time since June, Global Stocks are up on the hopes of reopening of China ignoring the strength in the headline payroll gains and the pick-up in earnings. USDIndex down by 1.4% last week and 5% in November. (Worst month since 2010)
• Yuan surge to its strongest levels since September as. China’s zero Covid pivot accelerates announcing an easing of coronavirus curbs over the weekend as China tries to soften its stance on COVID-19 restrictions in the wake of unprecedented protest against the policy.
• Wall Street banks weigs 30% bonus cuts.
• Stocks boosted. The Hang Seng rallied more than 4%, the CSI 300 nearly 2%. Nikkei and ASX underperformed, but also managed fractional gains. GER40 and UK100 are little changed though and US futures slightly lower, as markets weigh the impact of China’s move on economies and central bank moves elsewhere. The US 10-year rate is up 5.4 bp at 3.54%, and the 10-year Bund rate is up 2.9 bp at 1.87%.
• Europe: The beginning of the G7’s $60-a-barrel price cap on Russian oil. Russia rejects as it was expected!
• USOil – settled lower at $80.30 as Russia rejects EU cap. Jumped initially at $81.90 as China reopening would eventually brighten the outlook for global growth and commodity demand. OPEC+ left their quotas for oil production unchanged.
• JPY holds below 200-DMA, below $135.
• EUR – peaks to 1.0583 and GBP for a 3rd day above 200-DMA, at 1.2345.
• Gold – is hovering around $1800.
• BTC – up at $17313

Today – Attention on US ISM services survey, European retail sales data today and Central bank meetings in Canada and Australia later in the week.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+1.25%), jumps at 86.70 extending above all MAs. 5- and 9- EMAs aligning higher, RSI at 62 and MACD histogram & signal line rising above 0. H1 ATR 0.199, Daily ATR 0.889.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 6th December 2022.

Market Update – December 6 – USD Rallies, Stocks off Highs, RBA Add 25 bp in Hawkish hike.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

• The USD Index has climbed to 105.39 but off its 200-DMA following the stronger than data, including the ISM services and Factory orders reports that also showed still elevated price levels. The less hawkish Fed views & uncertainty over rate path adds a ceiling on USD. Treasury yields extended higher, Stocks under pressure as data add to the impacts from Friday’s jobs report to reinforce the FOMC’s view that it will have to maintain a more restrictive policy stance for some time.
• The curve inversion deepened to -80 bps, not seen since 1981.The belly of the curve continues to lead the weakness in Treasuries with the 3-year yield up 15 bps to 4.129%. The 10-year is 11.7 bps higher at 3.603%.
• AUD – ranging at 0.6720-0.6735 following 25 bps hike from RBA and a prediction of further hikes ahead.
• EUR – pullback to 1.0484 from 1.0590 yesterday. German manufacturing orders stronger than expected but failed to boost EUR.
• JPY – jumped to 137.30.
• GBP – dip to 1.2160 from 1.2345.
• Stocks – US100 closed with a -1.93% decline, with the US500 off -1.79% and the US30 -1.40% in the red. The declines saw the US500 drop back below 4,000, with the US30 under 34,000.

 

• USOil – The January WTI crude slipped -3.8% to $76.93 on concerns Fed tightening will weaken demand. There was little impact as the EU price cap went into effect.
• Gold – reverts to $1770 from $1809 highs, as the USD backed up from early lows amid US data releases. Bullion failed to close above $1800.

Today – US Goods & Services Trade Balance and Canadian Ivey PMI.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.69%) turned above 200-DMA. MAs flattened indicating the end of the uptrend, MACD signal line is at 0, RSI 62.00 & falling, H1 ATR 0.178, Daily ATR 0.998.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 7th December 2022.

Oil Drops Hit the Loonie, Ahead of BOC Interest Rates!

 USDCAD,D1
The USDCAD exchange rate strengthened after a relatively hawkish Fed, which is likely to push interest rates above 5% in 2023, following a series of strong economic data from the US. On Friday, data showed that the US economy added more than 263K jobs in November, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%. Wages jumped 5.2% even as tech companies lost thousands of jobs. And on Monday, data showed that the non-manufacturing PMI spiked in November.

The BOC will hold its 8th and final rate setting meeting for 2022 today (December 7), a week before the Fed and ECB meetings on December 14 and 15 respectively. The rate decision will be announced at 15:00 GMT with a press conference by Governor Macklem at 16:00 GMT. This will be the biggest catalyst for the movement of USDCAD. The market predicts that the central bank will raise interest rates by 0.50% to 4.25%. This decision was taken at a time when Canadian inflation was still high. According to Statcan, the country’s annual inflation rose to 6.9% in October due to rising gasoline and mortgage prices.

Crucially, the BOC’s decision comes at a time when Canada’s yield curve has fallen to its lowest level since the 1980s. The spread between 10 and 2 year bonds rose to 100 basis points, signaling that the economy was headed for a major recession. Hence, the BOC is likely to deliver a dovish rate hike. Since the October meeting, data releases have been on the positive side. GDP growth surprisingly reversed in Q3 with an annualized rate of 2.9% q/q, while the latest inflation figures show signs of stabilizing at what could be called a very high level. Meanwhile, labor market data came in stronger than anticipated for October, but retail sales for September painted a bleaker picture.
 

Technical Analysis

The recent weakening of the Canadian Dollar has been distorted by the decline in world crude oil prices. Currently, USDCAD is trading at 1.3655, strengthening by 1.5% this week. The price is above the 26-day exponential moving average and is trying to catch up to the price on the resistance’s right shoulder at 1.3807. The RSI is above the 50 level, the MACD histogram is just shy of crossing the zero line. On the downside, the neckline of the head and shoulder pattern will still function as minor support at 1.3502.

 USDCAD, H8
Intraday bias remains neutral, while with immediate focus on the 1.3807 resistance, a strong break there would confirm the case that correction from 1.3976 has been completed at 1.3225. Further gains should be seen to the head of 1.3976. On the downside, a follow-through break of 1.3225 could see a second attempt to reverse the trend towards the 1.3000 round figure. The RSI at 66 is of course not saturated yet while MACD is still in the buy zone, trying to thwart the head and shoulder pattern that has been formed. Further movement will be influenced by the BOC interest rate decision as well as statements from Bank officials.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Ady Phangestu
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Indonesia
HFMarkets

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