Tradewithgalaxy.com - A Revolutionary FX News Trading Software (calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com)

[JamesThatcher]

What does the data mean to the market?

Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018. Which is great from a bi monthly report.
 
April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.
 
March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09
See charts here.
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;i=16529;t=2020-03-19;r=M1

Historic deviations and their outcome

January 21 2020  A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate which gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move

Its worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 mins past the hour.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/0/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTA7dD0yMDIwLTEtMjElMjAxMzowOjAwLjA7cz1aQVJKUFk7cj1TMQ

 

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Decision  3.5

 

Today's trade plan

If we see a -/+ 0.25 deviation in either direxction , then we can expect the market to go into shock, I would target a total move of at least 800 pips which should provide multiple opportunities to enter and bank some nice pips.

Tradable pairs

USDZAR

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

[JamesThatcher]

There's nothing much to report from last week. No trades hit. I did have a slight amendment to my planned trades, setting up an additional Aussie trade, Wage price index.  (WPI) which I've been watching for a while and have seen some reactions recently. I always trade on the conservative side, and the deviation I expected was very unlikely to hit; however, it was worth setting up for and watching. I decided against setting up for the German PMI's. This was once a great report that used to react brilliantly, but after further analysis, I decided the recent results were too inconsistent. I couldn't say for sure that the outcome was predictable. On this occasion, it did work well. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.  It's easy to look back and say I wish I had traded that; however, this is how I have saved myself from many losses in the past. It's better to miss a trade that worked than take a risk and lose. You need to be confident of the outcome if you're going to risk your hard-earned cash. Choose your trades carefully.

This week I will pick just three trades to put my money on. Here's the list of which ones: -

25/05/2021 13:00   Hungarian Interest Rate
See the history here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=HU;nn=Interest Rate Decision

26/05/2021 03:00   New Zealand Official Cash Rate
See the history here: 

https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=NZ;nn=RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

26/05/2021 15:30   US Crude Oil Inventories
See the history here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories

I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.

Please feel free to ask questions.
Good luck this week.
James Thatcher

There's nothing much to report from last week. No trades hit. I did have a slight amendment to my planned trades, setting up an additional Aussie trade, Wage price index.  (WPI) which I've been watching for a while and have seen some reactions recently. I always trade on the conservative side, and the deviation I expected was very unlikely to hit; however, it was worth setting up for and watching. I decided against setting up for the German PMI's. This was once a great report that used to react brilliantly, but after further analysis, I decided the recent results were too inconsistent. I couldn't say for sure that the outcome was predictable. On this occasion, it did work well. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.  It's easy to look back and say I wish I had traded that; however, this is how I have saved myself from many losses in the past. It's better to miss a trade that worked than take a risk and lose. You need to be confident of the outcome if you're going to risk your hard-earned cash. Choose your trades carefully.

 

This week I will pick just three trades to put my money on. Here's the list of which ones: -

 

25/05/2021 13:00   Hungarian Interest Rate

See the history here:

https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=HU;nn=Interest Rate Decision

 

26/05/2021 03:00   New Zealand Official Cash Rate

See the history here:  https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=NZ;nn=RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

 

26/05/2021 15:30   US Crude Oil Inventories

See the history here:

https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories

 

I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.

 

Please feel free to ask questions.

Good luck this week.

James Thatcher

[JamesThatcher]

What does the data mean to the market?

The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.

Historic deviations and their outcome

June 29 2020  We got a negative  -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!

See the price action here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/19603/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE5NjAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wNi0yMztyPU0x

I will use forecasts of:

Base Rate Announcement  0.6

Today's trade plan

Economists expect a series of rate hikes throughout the rest of 2021, with the first increase of 0.15bps to the interest rate expected to happen in June, followed by 25bps hikes in September and December.
Today If we see that expected series of increases brought forward, I will take a sell on USDHUF, so I am looking for a +0.15bps increase or more to sell USDHUF (Meaning I'm buying the HUF) and expect some continued HUF Strengthening.

Tradable pairs

EURHUF
USDHUF

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

[JamesThatcher]

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.  

There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

 

Historic deviations and their outcome

May 19 2021  Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me, and the move was poor.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/51750/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUxNzUwO3Q9MjAyMS01LTE5JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x

May 12 2021  A small deviation which was also overshadowed by a cybersecurity attack on one of the US east coast's main oil pipeline which halted production. I sat on the sideline for this one and pleased I did.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50404/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwNDA0O3Q9MjAyMS01LTEyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x

May 5 2021  Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report.  

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/49925/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQ5OTI1O3Q9MjAyMS01LTUlMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9TTE

 

I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories  -750
DOE Gasoline Inventories  -1200

 

Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

Forecasts and API.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = -1050
2) API Actual Crude = -439
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0614
4) API Actual Gasoline = -1986

 

Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

[JamesThatcher]

There's nothing much to report from last week. No trades hit, I also skipped New Zealand Interest rate, as no economist predicted a change, I decided it wasn't worth getting out of bed in the middle of the night. No change to the Hungarian rate and no deviation on the weekly DOE crude oil inventories. Pretty dull but trading capital intact.

This week a few more trades are going on. I'll be putting my money on the following list.

01/06/2021 15:00:00    USA ISM Manufacturing PMI

See the history here.

https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=ISM Manufacturing PMI

03/06/2021 13:15:00    USA ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

See the history here.

https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

03/06/2021 16:00:00    USA Crude Oil Inventories

See the history here.

https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories

04/06/2021 13:30:00    USA Non-Farm Employment Change

See the history here.

https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Nonfarm Payrolls

I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.
Please feel free to ask questions.

Good luck this week.
James Thatcher

[JamesThatcher]

What does the data mean to the market?

ADP is a private company that analysis the employment data from 23 Million working adults. It's a precursor to the highly anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls which comes out the following Friday. 

A higher than expected number (more working adults) is good for the US Economy and would create a buy on USD pair, and vice versa a lower than expected number would create a sell in USD pairs.

Historic deviations and their outcome

May 5 2021  Small -58 deviation only created a 5 pip move on USDJPY, this deviation is too small considering the forecast range.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/49915/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQ5OTE1O3Q9MjAyMS01LTUlMjAxMjoxNTowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9UzU

March 31 2021  Only -33 deviation created an 8 pip move, not a strong enough deviation.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/35147/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM1MTQ3O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTMxJTIwMTI6MTU6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPVM1

March 3 2021  10 pip move from this -60 deviation. The move didn't last long!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/33020/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTMzMDIwO3Q9MjAyMS0zLTMlMjAxMzoxNTowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9UzU

I will use forecasts of:

ADP Employment Change  650

Today's trade plan

If we see a 300+- deviation from the forecast today, then we can hope for a sustained move that we may be able to get some pips from. This deviation will cover all forecasts in the range, so it will be a significant surprise, although unlikely to occur. 

Tradable pairs

USDJPY

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

[JamesThatcher]

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa. 

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.  

There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

Historic deviations and their outcome

May 19 2021  Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me, and the move was poor.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/51750/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUxNzUwO3Q9MjAyMS01LTE5JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x

May 12 2021  A small deviation which was also overshadowed by a cybersecurity attack on one of the US east coast's main oil pipeline which halted production. I sat on the sideline for this one and pleased I did. 

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50404/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwNDA0O3Q9MjAyMS01LTEyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x

May 5 2021  Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report.  

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/49925/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQ5OTI1O3Q9MjAyMS01LTUlMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9TTE

I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories  -4000
DOE Gasoline Inventories  +1000

Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

Forecasts and API.
1) DOE Crude Forecast =  -2533 (BB)

2) API Actual Crude = -5360

3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1479 (RT)

4) API Actual Gasoline = +2510

Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

[JamesThatcher]

What does the data mean to the market?

The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buy on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD. 

NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. 
With UR a lower number is good for the US and vice versa. Whereas AE a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa. 

All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.

Historic deviations and their outcome

May 7 2021  Today I saw a massive deviation of -734k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with a supporting +0.3% rise from the Unemployment Rate, and This crushed the US dollar across the board. I managed to bank some excellent profits early on the back of this data as the USD pairs continued to slide south. It was a shame that the Average Earnings conflicted largely. A conflict of +0.7 on this line would have upset the move in standard times, but not today!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50023/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwMDIzO3Q9MjAyMS01LTclMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE

April 2 2021  A very large deviation to the upside, but accompanied by conflicting Average Earnings, created a whipsaw that we don't like to see. This, therefore, did not hit our triggers and for good reason! 

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/35213/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM1MjEzO3Q9MjAyMS00LTIlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE

March 5 2021  +197k positive deviation with no conflicts. The move was great on USDJPY! I don't trade stocks, but for those that do, look how they reacted, which was the opposite of the USD value. Better employment numbers suggest a tightening of monetary policy, which is not good for the stock market!

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/33099/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTMzMDk5O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTUlMjAxMzozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9UzEw

I will use forecasts of:

Average Hourly Earnings (M/M)  0.2
Change in NonFarm Payrolls  664
Unemployment Rate  5.9

Today's trade plan

Today the forecast range is far smaller than last month, so we must be aware of that. If we see 300k deviations in either direction from Non-Farm Payrolls without any conflicts from Unemployment and no significant conflict from Average Earnings, we can expect an excellent move. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.

Tradable pairs

EURUSD
USDJPY

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

[JamesThatcher]

There's nothing much to report from last week. No trades hit. I also skipped USA ISM Manufacturing PMI. I've been monitoring this report closely and was considering trading it. Still, I don't have the confidence yet, so I will continue to monitor the market's reactions for a bit longer.  No deviation on the weekly DOE crude oil inventories or Non-Farm Payrolls. A pretty dull start to the month, but no losses taken, which remains the most important goal to achieve.

This week there are just two trades. I'll be putting my money on the following list.

09/06/2021 15:00:00    Canadian Overnight Rate

See the history here
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=CA;nn=BoC Interest Rate Decision

10/06/2021 13:30:00    USA Core CPI m/m

See the history here
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Core CPI (MoM)

I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.

Please feel free to ask questions.
Good luck this week.
James Thatcher

[JamesThatcher]

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also  

There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

 

Historic deviations and their outcome

June 3 2021  On this occasion, we saw a - 2600 deviation to the downside. It was close to but fell short of a trigger. It was good to see the market react well in the first few minutes after the release; however, it wasn't a trade for me.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/55776/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU1Nzc2O3Q9MjAyMS02LTMlMjAxNTowOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1NMQ

May 19 2021  Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me, and the move was poor.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/51750/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUxNzUwO3Q9MjAyMS01LTE5JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x

May 12 2021  A small deviation which was also overshadowed by a cybersecurity attack on one of the US east coast's main oil pipeline which halted production. I sat on the sideline for this one and pleased I did.  

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50404/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwNDA0O3Q9MjAyMS01LTEyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x

 

I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories  -2000
DOE Gasoline Inventories  +2000

 

Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

Forecasts and API.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2036 (RT)
2) API Actual Crude = -2108
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = +0698 ( RT)
4) API Actual Gasoline = -1986

 

Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

[JamesThatcher]

What does the data mean to the market?

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
There are 4 lines of data.

CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)

Historic deviations and their outcome

May 12 2021  We saw a massive positive +0.6 deviation on the headline Core CPI M/M with a supporting positive deviation of +0.7 on the Core CPI Y/Y without conflicts on all secondary lines.

I got a great 29 pip move in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some nine minutes after the trade, giving plenty of opportunities to choose the best possible exit.

The perfect storm, with significant deviation, big initial move and lots of continuing price action, making it virtually impossible not to make money.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50136/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwMTM2O3Q9MjAyMS01LTEyJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x

April 13 2021  Minor deviations created a nice spike but no continuation. Therefore it provided a minimal opportunity and no trade for me.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/38254/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM4MjU0O3Q9MjAyMS00LTEzJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x

March 10 2021  The headline and secondary line Core CPI Y/Y and M/M both deviated by 0.1, giving a nice 15 pip move on USDJPY. That's an excellent move for such a slight deviation, which shows how hot this data is becoming.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/33216/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTMzMjE2O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTEwJTIwMTM6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x

 

I will use forecasts of:

CPI - Core (M/M)  0.5
CPI - Core (Y/Y)  3.5
CPI (M/M)  0.5
CPI (Y/Y)  4.7

 

Today's trade plan

The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.

 

Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.3% to sell USDJPY or  0.7% to buy USDJPY.

I'm only looking to trade USDJPY as there's an ECB press conference at the same time. I wouldn't want to trade EURUSD for that fact today.  

 

I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any of the other three lines!

 

CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)

CPI - (Y/Y

)

If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.

Tradable pairs

USDJPY

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

[JamesThatcher]

There's nothing much to report from last week. No trades hit. I was hopeful for US CPI, but it didn't come near my trigger, and the reaction was volatile and unsafe to trade. We didn't see a deviation on the weekly DOE crude oil inventories either. A pretty dull month so far, but no losses taken, which remains the most important goal to achieve.

This week there are a few trades. I'll be putting my money on the following list.

15/06/2021 13:30 US Core Retail Sales m/m
See the history here
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Core Retail Sales (MoM)

16/06/2021 13:30 Canadian Core CPI m/m
See the history here
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=CA;nn=Core CPI (MoM)

16/06/2021 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories
See the history here
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories

17/06/2021 02:30 Australian Employment Change
See the history here
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=AU;nn=Employment Change

 

I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.

Please feel free to ask questions.

Good luck this week.
James Thatcher

[JamesThatcher]

What does the data mean to the market?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.

Historic deviations and their outcome

April 21 2021  Small but conflicting deviations didn't create any significant move, so no trade for me.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/41172/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQxMTcyO3Q9MjAyMS00LTIxJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUkNBRDtyPU0x

March 17 2021  Small deviations managed to create small moves, nothing exciting, though, and the retraces were swift and dangerous.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34157/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MTU3O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTE3JTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUkNBRDtyPVMzMA

February 17 2021  Small deviations again created a feeble move.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/29267/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI5MjY3O3Q9MjAyMS0yLTE3JTIwMTM6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUkNBRDtyPVMzMA

 

I will use forecasts of:

CPI (M/M)  0.4
CPI (Y/Y)  3.5
CPI Core - Common (Y/Y)  1.8
CPI Core - Median (Y/Y)  2.4
CPI Core - Trim (Y/Y)  2.4

 

Today's trade plan

Canadian CPI data is slowly moving more into focus as we approach the July tapering of assets purchases. I hope that now is the right time to see some nice moves when a reasonable deviation should occur.

 

Therefore today, I will need an unlikely 0.4 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction as the headline from the other four lines of data that come out at the same time.
Without the comprehensive deviations on all lines, we may not find any continuation to bring us safety and profit.

Tradable pairs

EURCAD
GBPCAD
USDCAD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

[JamesThatcher]

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also   

There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

 

Historic deviations and their outcome

June 9 2021  Today, we saw a conflict from gasoline. Although we saw a good 30 pip move in the direction of crude Oil initially after the news, this quickly pulled back to pre news price before carrying on with the daily downtrend it was in before the release.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58285/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4Mjg1O3Q9MjAyMS02LTklMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9TTE

June 3 2021  On this occasion, we saw a - 2600 deviation to the downside. It was close to but fell short of a trigger. It was good to see the market react well in the first few minutes after the release; however, it wasn't a trade for me.  

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/55776/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU1Nzc2O3Q9MjAyMS02LTMlMjAxNTowOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1NMQ

May 19 2021  Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me, and the move was poor.  

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/51750/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUxNzUwO3Q9MjAyMS01LTE5JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x

 

I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories  -6000
DOE Gasoline Inventories  +2000

 

Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 5000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent

Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

 

1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2500 (BB)

2) API Actual Crude = -8500

3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0614 (RT)

4) API Actual Gasoline = +2900

 

Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

[JamesThatcher]

What does the data mean to the market?

There are two main lines of data on this release.

Employment Change, the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month; more employment is positive for the Aussie dollar and would create a buy of AUD pairs.

Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact, a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Aussie Dollar and would create a sell of AUD pairs.

Historic deviations and their outcome

May 20 2021  Some small deviations caused some nice moves, but all over very quickly.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/51552/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUxNTUyO3Q9MjAyMS01LTIwJTIwMTozMDowMC4wO3M9RVVSQVVEO3I9TTE

March 18 2021  We got a minus -0.5% positive deviation on Unemployment Rate with complimentary +58k positive deviation on the Employment Change, which gave a great move for the first minute where I banked a few pips here in the first 30 seconds, a great outcome!

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34188/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MTg4O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTE4JTIwMDozMDowMC4wO3M9R0JQQVVEO3I9UzU

February 18 2021  A prime example of why both lines must deviate in the same direction. This time it conflicted between Unemployment Rate and Employment Change which didn't create a move from which I could profit. So I stayed on the sidelines.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28577/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4NTc3O3Q9MjAyMS0yLTE4JTIwMDozMDowMC4wO3M9QVVETlpEO3I9TTE

 

I will use forecasts of:

Employment Change  30
Unemployment Rate  5.5

 

Today's trade plan

The focus today will be on the Unemployment Rate. This is the key metric that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is watching and could affect future monetary policy decisions (Interest rates).

If we get a 0.4% deviation from the forecast Unemployment Rate in either direction with no conflict from Employment Change, then we should see some good moves on AUD pairs.

If both lines deviate harmoniously, we should see a sustained move and rack up a fair amount of pips along the way.

 

Tradable pairs

AUDJPY
AUDNZD
AUDUSD
EURAUD
GBPAUD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

[JamesThatcher]

What does the data mean to the market?

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.

Historic deviations and their outcome

March 18 2021  +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34208/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MjA4O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTE4JTIwMTE6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEVFJZO3I9UzEw

December 24 2020  +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/25738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI1NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x

October 22 2020  -1.75 negative deviation from the forecast, which created a great move! With over 900 pips in the first minute.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/23557/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTIzNTU3O3Q9MjAyMC0xMC0yMiUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x

 

I will use forecasts of:

Benchmark Rate  19

 

Today's trade plan

25 economists all forecasts today  for the rate to stay at 19%

Last time there was an unexpected hike in rates, President Erdogan sacked the central bank governor. Today is the first policy announcement from the new governor Sahap Kavcioglu, who's under pressure to cut rates. So far, he has signalled he won't cut yet but let's see!

Realistically the only feasible outcome from today is a possible cut. So if we get a deviation of 1.0 or more, we can expect a continued and prolonged weakening in TRY pairs.

 

Tradable pairs

EURTRY
USDTRY

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

[JamesThatcher]

Australian unemployment deviated strongly, but unfortunately, the reaction was poor with a hard spike and retrace, which didn't continue. I think there are two main reasons why this happened. Firstly the RBA Governor Lowe was very dovish in his speech the hour before the release, making the positive deviation less critical to the market. Second that it wasn't a good day to have traded due to a big move off of FOMC hours earlier. If those two things hadn't taken place and it was a typical day, we would have seen a good movement off the data as it was substantial data. Losses will happen; there was no real damage to my capital, and for me and overall, the year is still in profitable one. Now is an important time to choose my trades wisely. Don't let the losses lead to taking unnecessary risks to recover. I take each trade on its merit; I'll forget this loss now and move on to maintaining my risk-averse approach.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=58934;t=2021-6-17 1:30:00.0;s=EURAUD;r=S1

 

[JamesThatcher]

No deviation at all so no trades hit.

[JamesThatcher]

Weekly Summary!! 21 June 2021

Last week I set up for four trades with no deviations on three of those. I triggered on Australian employment data, but other factors overshadowed this, and the outcome wasn't as expected. Check out my previous post for a full explanation. Still, I'll draw a line and move on. Remember to take each trade on its own merit. When a trade doesn't work out, don't let it rule your head.

This week we've got some exciting reports coming out.

This week there are a few trades. I'll be putting my money on the following list.

22/06/2021 13:00:00    Hungarian Interest Rate See the reports history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb[…]hcjtuYmM9SFU7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24 23/06/2021 08:30:00    German Flash Manufacturing PMI See the reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=DE;nn=German Composite PMI 23/06/2021 13:30:00 Czech CNB Repo Rate See reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=CZ;nn=Interest Rate Decision 23/06/2021 14:45:00 USA Markt Manu PMI See reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Manufacturing PMI 23/06/2021 15:30:00 USA Crude Oil Inventories See reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories 24/06/2021 20:00:00 Mexican interest Rate See reports history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=MX;nn=Interest Rate Decision

 

I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.

Please feel free to ask questions.

Good luck this week.

James Thatcher

[JamesThatcher]

Hungary HUF Interest Rate June 22 2021

 

What does the data mean to the market?

The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Fornit), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.

Historic deviations and their outcome

July 21 2020  June 23rd 2020, We got a negative  -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!

See the price action here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/19603/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE5NjAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wNi0yMztyPU0x

I will use forecasts of:

Base Rate Announcement  0.9

 

Today's trade plan

Today we have a wide range of estimates as the Hungarian Central bank is expected to start hiking rates, but how much is unclear. Today we have the following forecast ranges.

 

High Forecast = 1.1

Low Forecast  = 0.6

Average Forecast  = 0.88

 

I will use a forecast of = 0.9 (Previous intetest rate = 0.6)

 

If we don't see a change to the interest rate and it remains at 0.6%, I will class this as a -0.3% deviation from the forecast of 0.9% and will take a sell. I would expect to see a 300 pip move.

 

If we see a hike to the interest rate to 1.1% or more. I will class this as a +0.2%  deviation from the forecast of 0.9%, and I will take a buy and expect to see a 200 pip move.

 

Tradable pairs

EURHUF
USDHUF

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

[JamesThatcher]

Germany German Flash Manufacturing PMI June 23 2021

 

What does the data mean to the market?

PMI Manufacturing data is a survey of a wide range number of private sector business leaders, the results of the survey are released towards the end of the month and therefore become a good forward-looking indicator to the state of the private sector business. The state of the private sector has to knock on effect on employment, purchasing and growth of the economy. Anything above 50 is considered growth/positive for the currency value. Anything below 50 is considered contraction/negative for the value of the currency.

Theres also services PMI at the samne time which is slightly less important to the German economy then manufactoring but I would not like this to conflict with Manufactoring to take a trade.

Historic deviations and their outcome

May 21 2021  Negative deviations from manufacturing and composite pushed EURUSD down 14 pips, even with a mall conflict from services.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/52051/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUyMDUxO3Q9MjAyMS01LTIxJTIwNzozMDowMC4wO3M9RVVSVVNEO3I9UzE

March 24 2021  Massive deviations on all four lines created a small but well-formed 13 pips on EURUSD.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34369/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MzY5O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTI0JTIwODozMDowMC4wO3M9RVVSVVNEO3I9UzE

 

I will use forecasts of:

PMI - Composite (M/M) - P  57.6
PMI - Manufacturing (M/M) - P  63
PMI - Services (M/M) - P  55.7

 

Today's trade plan

If Manufacturing deviates by 3.0 with both composite and services deviating by 1.0 in the same direction, we should be assured of a good move.

Tradable pairs

EURUSD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

[JamesThatcher]

United States US Markt Manu PMI June 23 2021

 

What does the data mean to the market?

Manufacturing PMI data is a survey of a wide range of private sector business purchasing managers. The data is an excellent forward-looking indicator to the state of the private sector business. Purchasing managers affect most areas of the economy like employment, production, and general growth.

Anything above 50 is considered growth and would be positive for the currency value. Anything below 50 is regarded as a contraction and would be negative for the value of the currency.

There are two releases
of this report Flash and Final. Flash is reported first form source and therefore has the most impact.

We also have services PMI simultaneously, and both need to deviate in the same direction to take a trade.

 

Historic deviations and their outcome

May 21 2021  Strong numbers from both Manufacturing and Services created a nice move that didnt suffer much of a retrace. Ideal for my trading style.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/52065/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUyMDY1O3Q9MjAyMS01LTIxJTIwMTM6NDU6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPVMxMA

January 22 2021  Huge deviations on both lines did not create a good move, however this wasn't really down to the data failing, It was overshadowed by other news at the time regarding Covid lock downs creating a "Risk Off" environment.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/26497/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI2NDk3O3Q9MjAyMS0xLTIyJTIwMTQ6NDU6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPVM1

 

I will use forecasts of:

Markit Manuf PMI - P  61.5
Markit Svcs PMI - P  70

 

Today's trade plan

Today, if we see both lines deviate together by at least 3.0, we can expect the US Dollar to move slowly and hopefully offer a few minutes of continuation as the data is digested. This won't create a huge spike, but it does hold some profit potential.

Tradable pairs

USDJPY

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

[JamesThatcher]

The week ahead. 28 June 2021

 

In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

30 June 2021 13:15 GMT    US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

30 June 2021 15:30 GMT    US Crude Oil Inventories
View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories

01 July 2021 08:30 GMT    Swedish Interest rate
View the report history here
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=SE;nn=Interest Rate Decision

01 July 2021 15:00 GMT    US ISM Manufacturing PMI
View the report history here
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=ISM Manufacturing PMI

02 July 2021 13:30 GMT    US Non-Farm Employment Change
View the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Nonfarm Payrolls

I'm most looking forward to NFP; two months ago, I had a great trade out of this.
For those that missed it, here's a reminder.
https://jamesthatchersnewstradinganalysis.quora.com/United-States-Non-Farm-Employment-Change-May-7-2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcS92xPNjoU

I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my focus. If new opportunities come up, I'll post any trade plans as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates.

Please feel free to ask questions.

Good luck this week.
James Thatcher

[JamesThatcher]

United States Crude Oil Inventories June 30 2021

 

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also

There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

Historic deviations and their outcome

June 23 2021  Today we saw a sizable deviation with supporting deviation from Gasoline. I suspect it was overbought. We got some 20 pips immediately after the news before the price returned to the pre-release level. It is worth noting that other information had pushed the oil price to new highs throughout the day. For that reason, I didn't trade it, but it still would have worked out ok if I had set up for it.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59320/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5MzIwO3Q9MjAyMS02LTIzJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

June 9 2021  Today, we saw a conflict with Gasoline. Although we saw a good 30 pip move in the direction of crude Oil initially after the news, this quickly pulled back to pre news price before carrying on with the daily downtrend it was in before the release.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58285/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4Mjg1O3Q9MjAyMS02LTklMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE

June 3 2021  On this occasion, we saw a - 2600 deviation to the downside. It was close to but fell short of a trigger. It was good to see the market react well in the first few minutes after the release; however, it wasn't a trade for me.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/55776/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU1Nzc2O3Q9MjAyMS02LTMlMjAxNTowOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

 

I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories  -6000
DOE Gasoline Inventories  +500

 

Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

Forecasts and API.

1) DOE Crude Forecast = -3850

2) API Actual Crude = -8200

3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -900

4) API Actual Gasoline = +2400

Therefore I will  use -6000 for OIL and +500 for Gasoline

Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

[JamesThatcher]

Sweden SWE Intrest rate July 1 2021

 

What does the data mean to the market?

The Sveriges Riksbank Executive Board's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the SEK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.

Historic deviations and their outcome

December 19 2019  Spike but retrace due to not being a total surprise on this occasion.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/13626/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTEzNjI2O3Q9MjAxOS0xMi0xOSUyMDg6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRFNFSztyPVM1

December 20 2018  Great move on SEK pairs, as we would like to see today.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/2446/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI0NDY7dD0yMDE4LTEyLTIwJTIwODozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNEU0VLO3I9UzMw

 

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Decision  0
SE Rates Forecast Q1  0
SE Rates Forecast Q2  0
SE Rates Forecast Q3  0
SE Rates Forecast Q4  0
SE Rates Forecast Q5  0
SE Rates Forecast Q6  0
SE Rates Forecast Q7  0

 

Today's trade plan

Today we don't expect any move from the Interest rate. But we may get some activity from the rate path. Previously the path was flat, with all lines showing 0. However, today, if any of the lines show a positive or negative deviation and don't conflict with each other. Then we can look to take a trade in the direction of the deviation.

We also get Quantitative Easing (QE) at the same time. The problem we see with this event is SEK IR path could be up or down. (a cut by the end of 2021 and 10% to a hike by 2024) BUT the QE may counter-act to the longer-term path. So, we may get a positive path, but short term QE increases or vice versa effectively a conflict.

If all deviations align, we could see a prolonged move.

Tradable pairs

EURSEK
USDSEK

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.