Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (January 22 - 26, 2018)

[analyst75]

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

This pair consolidated throughout last week, moving between the resistance line at 1.2300 and the support line at 1.2150. The resistance line at 1.2300 was tested unsuccessfully, and it is unlikely that price would stay above it, even if it tested again. There is going to be a directional movement this week, which would most probably favor bears, for the outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for the week.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bearish

USDCHF went further southwards last week, testing the demand level at 0.9550, prior to the upwards bounce that occurred on Friday. Because of the expected weakness in EURUSD, it is unlikely that price would be able to go below the support level at 0.9550. Rather, price could continue going upwards, reaching the resistance levels at 0.9650, 0.9700 and 0.9750 within the next several trading days.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish  

GBPUSD went upwards last week, having gained roughly 400 pips since January 11. The market moved above the distribution territory at 1.3900 and later closed below it on Friday. There is currently a bullish bias on the market, which would be overturned once price goes below the accumulation territories at 1.3500 and 1.3450 (which would require a very strong selling pressure). The outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this week.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

This trading instrument is in a bearish mode. The shallow rally that was in the middle of last week, turned out to be a nice opportunity to go short. It is much more likely that price would continue going southwards this week, because there could be some weakness in USD. The demand levels at 110.50, 110.00 and 109.50 could be reached. On the other hand, a rally can meet some adamant impediment around the supply levels at 111.50 and 112.00.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish    

The cross is bullish but it is quite choppy in the short-term. Should the demand zone at 134.00 get breached to the downside, the bias would turn bearish. In case price is able to go above the supply zone at 136.50, the next target would be another supply zone at 137.00 (and the recent bullish bias would become stronger). A movement to the upside is more likely, owing to a bullish outlook on some JPY pairs.  

 

GBPJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

Despite the bearish movement that happened between January 8 and 11, this cross has been able to go upwards in a noteworthy manner last week. Between Monday and Thursday, price moved upwards by 250 pips, and then got corrected on Friday. This week, further bullish movement may enable price to reach the supply zones at 154.00, 154.50 and 155.00. There could be additional bearish corrections along the way; but they should be temporary, posing no significant threat to the bullishness in the market.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

 

“And remember, having a working business plan will put you in the elite company of the top traders that are already living their promise.” – Dr. Van Tharp  

 

Source: www.tallinex.com

 

Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (January 22 - 26, 2018)    

 

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

 

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

This pair consolidated throughout last week, moving between the resistance line at 1.2300 and the support line at 1.2150. The resistance line at 1.2300 was tested unsuccessfully, and it is unlikely that price would stay above it, even if it tested again. There is going to be a directional movement this week, which would most probably favor bears, for the outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for the week.

 

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bearish

USDCHF went further southwards last week, testing the demand level at 0.9550, prior to the upwards bounce that occurred on Friday. Because of the expected weakness in EURUSD, it is unlikely that price would be able to go below the support level at 0.9550. Rather, price could continue going upwards, reaching the resistance levels at 0.9650, 0.9700 and 0.9750 within the next several trading days.

 

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish  

GBPUSD went upwards last week, having gained roughly 400 pips since January 11. The market moved above the distribution territory at 1.3900 and later closed below it on Friday. There is currently a bullish bias on the market, which would be overturned once price goes below the accumulation territories at 1.3500 and 1.3450 (which would require a very strong selling pressure). The outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this week.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

This trading instrument is in a bearish mode. The shallow rally that was in the middle of last week, turned out to be a nice opportunity to go short. It is much more likely that price would continue going southwards this week, because there could be some weakness in USD. The demand levels at 110.50, 110.00 and 109.50 could be reached. On the other hand, a rally can meet some adamant impediment around the supply levels at 111.50 and 112.00.

 

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish    

The cross is bullish but it is quite choppy in the short-term. Should the demand zone at 134.00 get breached to the downside, the bias would turn bearish. In case price is able to go above the supply zone at 136.50, the next target would be another supply zone at 137.00 (and the recent bullish bias would become stronger). A movement to the upside is more likely, owing to a bullish outlook on some JPY pairs.  

 

GBPJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

Despite the bearish movement that happened between January 8 and 11, this cross has been able to go upwards in a noteworthy manner last week. Between Monday and Thursday, price moved upwards by 250 pips, and then got corrected on Friday. This week, further bullish movement may enable price to reach the supply zones at 154.00, 154.50 and 155.00. There could be additional bearish corrections along the way; but they should be temporary, posing no significant threat to the bullishness in the market.

 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 

 

“And remember, having a working business plan will put you in the elite company of the top traders that are already living their promise.” – Dr. Van Tharp  

 

Source: www.tallinex.com

 

 

[TitoC]

It has already been announced that Tillerson will be replace by CIA head Pompeo. This reshuffle at the top level of government heaped pressure on the dollar and stock markets. US10Y bond yields have dropped from 2.88 to 2.8330%.

 

CPI data confirmed the consensus, although prices didn’t grow as much as they did in January. These figures lower the probability of the Fed raising interest rates 4 times this year.

 

The consumer price index for February posted 0.2% growth MoM and 1.8% YoY (forecast: 0.2% MoM, 1.8% YoY, previous: 0.5% MoM, 1.8% YoY). The month on month value is significantly lower than that of the previous month.

Yesterday’s target was reached. Buyers met with resistance at the 90th degree, from where a rebound to around 1.2340 occurred. Trading closed around the 112th degree.

 

The euro’s rise was brought about by Trump’s decision to sack Rex Tillerson. Since Trump immediately nominated Pompeo to the post, markets have already factored this news in and it shouldn’t have any more of an effect. This also affects other currencies such as the turk lira exchange rate.According to my pricing model from the 8th of March, the pair could easily return to 1.2446. However, in order for this to happen, buyers need to cross the trend line at around 1.2450.

 

There are lots of speeches from the ECB today, so I don’t think the line will be broken. I think buyers will take the opportunity to test the trend line at 1.2390. If the rate drops below 1.2390, there will be an increased risk of dropping further to the 45th degree at 1.2356. By this time, it will also be supported by the LB balance line.

[watsonjohn759]

Thanks