Daily forex analysis by ForexCycle

[forexcycle]

USDJPY is facing the resistance of descending price channel on daily chart. As long as the channel resistance holds, the rise from 108.13 could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 118.66, and another fall towards 106.00 could be expected after the consolidation. On the upside, a clear break out of the the channel resistance will indicate that the downward movement from 118.66 had completed at 108.13 already, then the following upward movement could bring price to 120.00 area.

by ForexCycle.com

 

[forexcycle]

After consolidation, AUDUSD continues its downward movement from 0.7555 and the fall extended to as low as 0.7354. Near term resistance is now at 0.7426, as long as this level holds, the downward movement could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 0.7300 area. On the upside, a break of 0.7426 resistance will indicate that the downtrend is complete, then the pair will find resistance at the descending trend line on 4-hour chart.

[forexcycle]

USDJPY broke out of the top of the price channel on 4-hour chart and reached as high as 114.32. Consolidation for the uptrend would likely be seen in a couple of days and pullback to the bottom of the channel is possible. However, as long as the pair is above 112.08 key support, the upward movement could be expected to continue after the consolidation and next target would be at 115.00 area. Only a breakdown below 112.08 key support could signal completion of the uptrend.

[forexcycle]

GBPUSD remains in uptrend from 1.2365, the fall from 1.2988 is likely consolidation of the uptrend. Near term support is at the bottom of the rising price channel on 4-hour chart. As long as the pair is in the channel, the uptrend could be expected to continue and next target would be at 1.3100 area. Key support is at 1.2831, only a breakdown below this level will indicate that the upward movement had completed at 1.2988 already, then the following downward movement could bring price to 1.2700 area.

[forexcycle]

USDJPY continued its bullish movement from 108.13 and the rise extended to as high as 114.36. Near term support is at the ascending trend line on 4-hour chart. As long as the pair is above the trend line, the fall from 114.36 could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend and another rise towards 115.00 could be expected after the consolidation. Key support is now at 113.20, only a breakdown below this level will indicate that the uptrend had completed at 114.36 already, then the following pullback could bring price back to 110.50 – 111.00 area.

[forexcycle]

EURUSD broke above 1.0900 resistance and rebounded to 1.0930 area, indicating that the downward movement from 1.1021 had completed at 1.0839 already. However, the bounce would possibly be correction of the downtrend from 1.1021, another fall towards 1.0700 is still possible after the correction. Key resistance is at 1.1021, only break above this level will indicate that the uptrend from 1.0569 has resumed, then the following upward movement could bring price to 1.1400 zone.

[forexcycle]

AUDUSD remains in the short term uptrend from 0.7328, the fall from 0.7445 is likely consolidation of the uptrend. Further rise to test the resistance of the descending trend line on 4-hour chart is possible. Support is now at 0.7385, only a breakdown below this level will indicate that the short term uptrend is complete, then the following bearish movement could bring price to 0.7250 area.

[forexcycle]

Under pressure by the resistance of the descending trend line on 4-hour chart, AUDUSD pulled back from 0.7466. Another rise to test the trend line resistance is still possible after consolidation. As long as the pair is below the trend line, the rise from 0.7328 could be treated as correction of the downtrend from 0.7610 and another fall towards 0.7250 is still possible. On the upside, a clear break out of the trend line resistance will indicate that the downward movement from 0.7610 had completed at 0.7328 already, then the following bullish move could bring price to 0.7550 zone.

[forexcycle]

AUDUSD’s rise from 0.7328 extended to as high as 0.7469. The pair is facing the resistance of the descending trend line on 4-hour chart. As long as the trend line resistance holds, the rise could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend from the March 21 high of 0.7749, and another fall could be expected after the consolidation. Near term support is at 0.7388, a breakdown below this level could signal resumption of the downtrend from 0.7749. On the upside, a clear break of the trend line resistance will indicate that the downtrend had completed at 0.7328 already, and the following upward movement could bring price into 0.7550 zone.

[forexcycle]

GBPUSD remains in uptrend from 1.2365. As long as the pair is in the ascending price channel on 4-hour chart, the uptrend could be expected to continue and further rise to 1.3100 area is still possible. Near term support is at the bottom of the price channel, and the key support is at 1.2844, only a breakdown below this level will indicate that the upward movement had completed at 1.3047 already, then the following correction pullback could take price back into 1.2700 zone.

[forexcycle]

EURUSD moved below the ascending trend line on 4-hour chart and is now facing the 1.1161 support, a breakdown below this level will indicate that the uptrend from 1.0839 had completed at 1.1267 already, then the pair will find support at around 1.1070, followed by 1.1030. On the upside, as long as 1.1061 support holds, the fall from 1.1267 would possibly be consolidation of the uptrend, another rise towards 1.1350 is still possible after the consolidation. Resistance is at 1.1267, a break of this level could signal resumption of the uptrend.

[forexcycle]

EURUSD failed to break below 1.1161 support and moved sideways in a trading range between 1.1161 and 1.1267, indicating that the pair remains in uptrend from 1.0839 and the fall from 1.1267 could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend. As long as the 1.1161 support holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue and next target would be at 1.1350 area. On the downside, a breakdown below 1.1161 support will indicate that the upward movement had completed at 1.1267 already, this could trigger a correction pullback into 1.1070 zone.

EURUSD 4-hour chart

[forexcycle]

USDCAD remains in downtrend from 1.3793, the rise from 1.3387 is likely consolidation of the downtrend. Near term resistance is at the top trend line of the price channel on the 4-hour chart. As long as the pair is in the channel, the downtrend could be expected to continue, and the next target would be at around 1.3300. The key resistance is at 1.3540, only break above this level could signal completion of the downtrend.

[forexcycle]

USDJPY moved sideways in a narrow range between 110.86 and 112.13. Initial support is at 110.86, as long as this level holds, the fall from 112.13 could be treated as correction of the uptrend from 110.23, and another rise towards 115.00 could be expected after the correction. Near term resistance is at 112.13, a break of this level could signal resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, a breakdown below 110.86 support will indicate that the pair remains in downtrend from 114.36, then the pair will find support around 109.60.

[forexcycle]

EURUSD stays in a falling price channel on its 4-hour chart and is now in short term downtrend from 1.1267. As long as the pair is in the channel, the downtrend could be expected to continue and next target would be at around 1.1050. However, the fall from 1.1267 would possibly be consolidation of the longer term uptrend from 1.0569 (Apr 10 low), another rise towards 1.1450 is still possible after the consolidation. Near term resistance is at the top trend line of the channel now at around 1.1195, a clear break of the channel resistance could signal resumption of the uptrend.

[forexcycle]

EURUSD broke above the top trend line of the price channel on its 4-hour chart, indicating that the short term downtrend from 1.1267 had completed at 1.1109 already. Now the pair is facing 1.1267 resistance, a break of this level could signal resumption of the uptrend from 1.0569 (Apr 10 low), this could trigger another bullish movement towards 1.1450. Near term support is at 1.1195, only a breakdown below this level will indicate that lengthier consolidation for the uptrend is needed, then the pair will find support around 1.1050.

[forexcycle]

GBPUSD is facing the resistance of the ascending trend line at around 1.2930 on its 4-hour chart. As long as the pair is below the trend line, the bounce from 1.2769 could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 1.3047, and another decline towards 1.2700 is still possible after the consolidation. Only a clear break above the trend line resistance will suggest that the uptrend from 1.2109 (Mar 14 low) has resumed, this could trigger another rise towards 1.3300.

[forexcycle]

After touching 1.3540 resistance, USDCAD pulled back to 1.3480, indicating that the pair remains in downtrend from 1.3793 and the bounce from 1.3387 could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend. As long as 1.3540 resistance holds, the downtrend could be expected to continue and further decline towards 1.3200 is still possible after the consolidation. Only a clear break of 1.3540 resistance will indicate that the bearish movement had completed at 1.3387 already, this could trigger another rise towards 1.3800.

[forexcycle]

After touching the bottom support trend line of the price channel on the weekly chart, USDCNH rebounded strongly from 6.7210 to 6.7918, indicating that a short term bottom had been formed.

 

 

Will the downtrend continue?

 

There is a bearish trend line from the May 24 high of 6.8876 to the May 31 high of 6.8351 with resistance at around 6.7940 on its 4-hour chart. As long as the pair is below the trend line, the bearish movement from the May 9 high of 6.9171 is possible to continue, and next target would be at around 6.6500. Near term support is at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement taken from 6.7210 to 6.7918 at 6.7480, followed by 6.7210. Only break below these levels could signal resumption of the bearish movement.

 

 

On the upside, a clear break above the trend line resistance will suggest that the bearish movement from 6.9171 had completed at 6.7210 already, then further rally to test 6.8351 resistance could be seen. A break through this level will confirm that the whole correction pullback started from January 2017 high of 6.9867 is complete, this could trigger another rise towards 7.0000.

 

In our view

 

The USDCNH pair had reached the bottom of the long term bullish channel on its weekly chart and strong rebound had occurred after touching the channel support, so the correction pullback from 6.9867 might had completed at 6.7210 already. Further rally would more likely be seen in the near future.

 

Technical levels

 

Support levels: 6.7480 (Fibonacci retracement), 6.7210 (June 1 low), 6.6500.

 

Resistance levels: 6.7918 (June 2 high), 6.7940 (trend line resistance), 6.8351 (May 31 high), 6.9171 (May 9 high), 6.9867 (January 2017 high).

[forexcycle]

GBPUSD’s bounce from 1.2769 extended to as high as 1.2949. However, the bounce would possibly be correction of the downtrend from 1.3047. As long as the pair is below the ascending trend line on its 4-hour chart, another fall is possible after the correction and next target would be at around 1.2600. Near term support is at 1.2845, a breakdown below this level could take price to the next support level at 1.2769, below this level will confirm that the downtrend has resumed.

[forexcycle]

EURUSD remains in short term uptrend from 1.1109, as long as 1.1200 support holds, the pullback from 1.1285 could be treated as correction of the uptrend. Further rise could be expected after the correction pullback and a break of 1.1285 resistance could trigger another bullish movement towards 1.1450. On the downside, a breakdown below 1.1200 support will indicate that lengthier consolidation for the longer term uptrend from 1.0569 (Apr 10 low) is underway, then the pair will find support at around 1.1130.

[forexcycle]

AUDUSD remains in uptrend from 0.7371, the fall from 0.7566 could be treated as consolidation for the uptrend. Range trading between 0.7500 and 0.7566 would likely be seen in a couple of days. Near term support is at 0.7500, as long as this level holds, the uptrend could be expected to resume, and next target would be at 0.7650 area. On the downside, a breakdown below 0.7500 support will indicate that the upside movement had completed at 0.7566 already, then the following downward movement could bring price back into 0.7450 zone.

[forexcycle]

EURUSD’s fall from 1.1285 extended to as low as 1.1166. Deeper decline is still possible and next target would be at around 1.1130. However, as long as 1.1109 support holds, the fall would possibly be consolidation of the uptrend from 1.0569 (Apr 10 low), another rise towards 1.1450 could be expected after the consolidation. Resistance is at 1.1285, a break of this level could signal resumption of the uptrend.

[forexcycle]

EURUSD stays in a descending price channel on its 4-hour chart, indicating that the pair remains in the short term downtrend from 1.1285. As long as the pair is in the channel, the downtrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at around 1.1130. Near term resistance is at 1.1232, a break of this level could bring price back to test 1.1285 resistance.

[forexcycle]

GBPUSD formed a sideways movement in a trading range between 1.2634 and 1.2779 on its 4-hour chart. As long as the pair is below 1.2779 resistance, the price action in the range could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 1.3047, and another fall towards 1.2500 could be expected after the consolidation. On the upside, a break through 1.2779 level could take price to the next resistance level at 1.2850, only break above this level could signal completion of the downtrend.