Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

Brent: negative dynamics prevail

06/02/2020

As a result of the sharp increase in tension in the Middle East after the assassination of Iranian General Suleymani as a result of a U.S. airstrike at a Baghdad airport, the price of Brent crude rose sharply earlier last month, reaching $ 71.95 per barrel.

In the future, in the course of reducing the degree of tension in the Middle East, the price also began to decline sharply. The outbreak of coronavirus in China has become a strong negative driver for quotations of oil and other commodities.

The price of Brent crude oil broke through a key support level of 63.60 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and an important support level of 63.90 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the downward correction in the wave of rising prices from a level near the level of 27.10 to the highs of October 2018 near the mark of 86.60 dollars per barrel) and continued to decline.

Investor sentiment improved slightly on Wednesday after media reports that a university in China had found a method for treating coronavirus, which was also reflected in quotes for oil and other commodities. The meeting of OPEC and its allies also supported prices. Leading oil producers may decide to further reduce their production to offset the decline in demand caused by the coronavirus.

Nevertheless, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy announced on Wednesday an increase in oil reserves by 3.355 million barrels last week, higher than the forecast of +3.0 million barrels. U.S. oil production is still near record highs of 13,000 million barrels per day.

At the beginning of today's European session, Brent crude oil declines again after rising on Wednesday and is trading near 56.00. So far, a strong negative impulse prevails. Long positions are premature so far.

The slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy, the second largest in the world, due to the threat of a large-scale epidemic of the virus and a possible decrease in oil demand from China will still negatively affect the prices of commodities, including oil.

Support Levels: 54.23, 50.00

Resistance Levels: 56.90, 58.15, 59.20, 60.40, 62.00, 63.60, 63.90, 66.00, 67.50, 69.70, 71.95, 72.60

 

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 57.10. Take-Profit 55.00, 54.00, 53.00, 50.00

Buy Stop 57.10. Stop-Loss 54.20. Take-Profit 58.15, 59.20, 60.40, 62.00, 63.60, 63.90

 

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: on the eve of the NFP publication

07/02/2020

Current Dynamics

Today, the attention of market participants will be riveted to the publication at 13:30 (GMT) of data from the US labor market. Strong data expected. According to a report by the US Department of Labor, in January, 160,000 new jobs were created, salaries increased by 0.3%, and unemployment remained at the level of multi-year lows of 3.5%.

If the data is confirmed or is better than the forecast, then the dollar is likely to strengthen and US stock indices will rise. At the same time, you must be prepared for unexpected data that can cause increased volatility in the financial market. If the data on the labor market published today turn out to be weaker than the forecast, and previous reports will be revised downward, then the dollar may drop sharply.

Also at the same time (at 13:30 GMT) Statistics Canada will present its monthly report on the labor market in the country. Unemployment is expected to be 5.6% in January, the same as in December, and the number of employed increased by 15,000 (against 27,300 in December). If the data turn out to be better than the previous values or forecast, then the Canadian dollar is likely to strengthen, including with respect to the USD.

In any case, when data from the US and Canada labor markets are published, a surge in volatility is expected across the entire financial market. This will especially affect the USD / CAD pair, which grew in the first half of today's trading day, primarily due to the strengthening of the US dollar.

Futures on the DXY dollar index, which reflects the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 major world currencies, is growing today for the 5th day in a row and is trading at the beginning of today's European session near 98.46, 125 points higher than the closing price at the end of last week.

The dollar is strengthened by strong macro statistics coming from the United States, as well as the demand for it as a protective asset amid the spread of coronavirus in China.

At the beginning of today's European session, USD / CAD is trading near 1.3310, 85 pips above its opening price earlier this week.

So far, everything speaks in favor of further growth of USD / CAD. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the pair has reached the upper limit of the range located between the levels of 1.3345 (1.3380) and 1.3020 (1.3050). Near these resistance levels, if not a reversal, then rebound with a subsequent decrease is possible. A signal for sales may be a breakdown of the local support level 1.3265 and the short-term support level 1.3245 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

Nevertheless, while USD / CAD is trading above the key support level of 1.3200 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), long positions should be preferred.

Support Levels: 1.3265, 1.3245, 1.3200, 1.3165, 1.3120, 1.3050, 1.3020

Resistance Levels: 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3452

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3025. Stop-Loss 1.3100. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2930

Buy Stop 1.3105. Stop-Loss 1.3025. Take-Profit 1.3120, 1.3190, 1.3300, 1.3325, 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3400

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: Current Situation

10/02/2020

Chinese President Xi Jinping last week assured US President Trump of China's intention to fulfill the obligations of a recently signed trade deal.

US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the rapid spread of the virus will inevitably affect the Chinese economy and may affect the US economy, although it’s too early to judge the strength and magnitude of this influence.

This week (on Tuesday and Wednesday) Powell will speak in Congress as part of a statutory hearing. Probably, he will again touch upon the monetary policy of the Fed and the spread of coronavirus, which may cause increased volatility in world financial markets, including the US stock market.

On Friday, US stock markets closed in negative territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by -0.9%, to 29102, the S&P 500 - by -0.5%, to 3327, and the Nasdaq 100 - by -0.5%, to 9401.

Concerns over the spread of coronavirus in China nevertheless raise concerns about global growth. Fed officials call this an "unpredictable factor".

Nevertheless, the positive mood of investors related to the signing of the “first phase” trade agreement between the USA and China last month helps to maintain the positive dynamics of world and US stock indices, despite the epidemic of coronavirus in China.

Last week, the DJIA updated its absolute high near 59528.0, and at the beginning of today's European session, it is trading near 29070.0 mark.

Above the short-term support levels of 28990.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 28770.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), the purchases look safe.

In an alternative scenario, the first signal for sales will be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 28899.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). In case of further decline, the targets will be the support levels 28770.0, 28165.0 (January lows), 27400.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart).

However, only a breakdown of the support level of 24150.0 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 38.2%) can break the DJIA bullish trend.

Despite the corrective decline, the long-term positive dynamics of the DJIA remains, which makes its purchases preferable.

Support Levels: 28990.0, 28770.0, 28165.0, 27400.0, 26220.0, 25270.0, 24600.0, 24150.0

Resistance Levels: 29528.0

 

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 29530.0. Stop-Loss 28760.0. Take-Profit 30000.0

Sell Stop 28760.0. Stop-Loss 29175.0. Take-Profit 28165.0, 28000.0, 27400.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: negative dynamics prevail

11/02/2020

At the start of today's European session, AUD / USD is trading near the 0.6710 mark, just below the intraday high of 0.6719 reached during the Asian session after the publication of positive macro statistics from Australia.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the volume of issued housing loans increased in December by + 4.4% (with a forecast of + 1.6%), and the volume of issued housing loans related to investment grew in December by + 2.8%.

In total, in 2019, mortgage lending in Australia grew by + 14%, and this year the growth is likely to accelerate, some economists say. Such a development of events will attract the attention of the leaders of the Reserve Bank of Australia and make them reduce the tendency to further soften the policy of the bank.

Nevertheless, most economists believe that the RBA will be forced to return to the issue of lowering rates this year, despite the risks of overheating the housing market in the country.

"Forest fires and coronavirus will temporarily put pressure on growth in Australia in the short term. We are ready to continue easing monetary policy if it is necessary to support sustainable economic growth," said RBA managing director Philip Low last week.

Meanwhile, the DXY dollar index rose Monday for the sixth consecutive session and, supported by strong US employment data and concerns over the spread of coronavirus, rose on Tuesday to a 4-month high of 98.80.

The AUD / USD pair is trading below the nearest strong resistance levels of 0.6723 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.6800 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), remaining in the area below the key resistance level 0.6885 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and maintaining negative dynamics.

OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily and weekly charts are on the side of the sellers.

Probably, the possible correctional growth of AUD / USD will be limited by the resistance levels of 0.6723, 0.6755, 0.6800.

In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 0.6670 (2019 lows and a Fibonacci level of 0%) and the resumption of decline, the goals will be the support levels of 0.6600, 0.6500. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).

So far, the negative dynamics of AUD / USD, which speaks in favor of its sales, still prevails.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, participants in financial markets will follow the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress (at 15:00 GMT).

He is likely to once again mark the “good form” of the American economy, and most likely the US dollar will maintain positive dynamics this week.

Support Levels: 0.6700, 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300

Resistance Levels: 0.6723, 0.6755, 0.6800, 0.6855, 0.6885, 0.6900, 0.6935

 

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 0.6725. Take-Profit 0.6670, 0.6600, 0.6300

Buy Stop 0.6725. Stop-Loss 0.6675. Take-Profit 0.6755, 0.6800, 0.6855, 0.6885

 

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: concerns over coronavirus weaken

12/02/2020

As soon as today at 01:00 (GMT) the RBNZ decision on the rate was published, the New Zealand dollar strengthened sharply.

The New Zealand Reserve Bank seems to be beginning to show a tendency towards tighter monetary policy amid the release of data indicating an improvement in the country's economy and lower risks of a slowdown in the global economy due to coronavirus in China.

A statement made after the meeting of the RBNZ indicates that the central bank considers the risks associated with the outbreak of coronavirus not serious enough to significantly affect its position on monetary policy.

RBNZ forecasts suggest that if the negative consequences of a coronavirus outbreak on economic growth do not exceed expectations, the next step is likely to be not a decrease, but an increase in the interest rate.

After the RBNZ meeting, the NZD / USD pair increased by 50 points, and at the beginning of today's European session, NZD / USD is trading near 0.6485, which is 85 points higher than the opening price today.

The immediate goal in case of continued growth of NZD / USD is the resistance levels of 0.6525 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.6535 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

In case of their breakdown, NZD / USD will go towards the resistance levels of 0.6755 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.6865 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction in the global wave of pair decline from the 0.8820 mark).

At the same time, below the key resistance level of 0.6535, long-term negative dynamics prevail.

A return into the zone below the level of 0.6450 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will cause a resumption of NZD / USD decline with targets at support levels of 0.6400, 0.6322 (November lows), 0.6260 (September 2015 lows and Fibonacci level 0%), 0.6205 (September lows).

Powell will continue his congressional speech Wednesday. It will begin at 15:00 (GMT). On Tuesday, he reiterated that "if a situation arises that will cause a significant reassessment of our forecasts, we will respond accordingly". If Powell speaks out more specifically regarding the need for a softer monetary policy by the Fed, the US dollar may fall under sales after its 7-day rise the day before.

In this case, the NZD / USD pair will receive an additional impetus for further growth.

Support Levels: 0.6465, 0.6450, 0.6400, 0.6378, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100

Resistance Levels: 0.6485, 0.6515, 0.6525, 0.6535, 0.6600, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6755, 0.6865

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6445. Stop-Loss 0.6485. Take-Profit 0.6400, 0.6378, 0.6322, 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100

Buy Stop 0.6490. Stop-Loss 0.6445. Take-Profit 0.6515, 0.6525, 0.6535, 0.6600, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6755, 0.6865

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: negative dynamics persist

13/02/2020

According to the quarterly report submitted by the European Commission on Thursday, the eurozone's total GDP will grow by 1.2% in both 2020 and 2021. Thus, the European Commission confirmed the forecasts presented in November 2019.

Among the main risks, the European Commission indicated an outbreak of coronavirus and the uncertainty of US foreign trade policy.

The downward risks for the economic outlook were somewhat weakened after the conclusion of the first-phase trade agreement between China and the USA, as well as after the EU and Great Britain managed to avoid Brexit without a deal. However, uncertainty persists, and new sources of risk have emerged, one of which is coronavirus.

"The economy of the Eurozone may receive support from a softer and more stimulating fiscal policy, and will also be positively affected by soft financial conditions in some countries", the European Commission added.

The inflation forecast for 2020 was raised to 1.3% from 1.2%, and the forecast for 2021 - to 1.4% from 1.3%.

The head of the ECB Christine Lagarde also spoke in January about the negative impact on the economy of the Eurozone by the protectionist policy of the United States.

During a January 23 press conference, Lagarde said the Eurozone economy is facing "downside risks" due to increased protectionism, bearing in mind, among other things, the threat of US President Donald Trump to impose import duties on European cars.

Great Britain left the EU on January 31, however, internal political tensions and uncertainty in the Eurozone remain, but there are no significant signs of a recovery in Europe’s manufacturing sector.

It is possible that the ECB will be forced to resort to additional incentive measures, which will further weaken the euro. A recent ECB report suggests that rates could be reduced to -1% or even lower.

For the euro, a negative fundamental background prevails so far, creating the prerequisites for a further weakening of the euro.

EUR / USD is trading in a zone well below the key resistance level of 1.1128 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), and so far no recovery is expected. Long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD remains, which speaks in favor of short positions.

To resume growth, the price needs to break through the nearest resistance levels of 1.0953 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.1035 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).

Support Levels: 1.0850, 1.0800

Resistance Levels: 1.0895, 1.0953, 1.0995, 1.1035, 1.1092, 1.1128

 

Trading Recommendations

Sell Limit 1.0890, Sell Stop 1.0860. Stop-Loss 1.0910. Take-Profit 1.0800, 1.0700, 1.0600

Buy Stop 1.0955. Stop-Loss 1.0920. Take-Profit 1.0953, 1.0995, 1.1035, 1.1092, 1.1128

 

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

WTI: long positions so far premature

14/02/2020

After falling sharply last month amid the spreading coronavirus infection in China, oil prices seem to have stabilized in February. Investor fears about the massive spread of coronavirus have declined. The rate of spread of the disease appears to be slowing. Expectations for China's economic recovery to recover in the 2nd quarter after falling in the 1st quarter due to coronavirus are supporting commodity prices, including oil.

At the beginning of the European session, WTI crude oil is trading near 51.50, above the short-term support level (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

The next target in case of continued growth will be the resistance levels 54.40 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 55.40 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the upward correction to the fall from the highs of the last few years near 76.80 to the support level near 42.15). Nevertheless, talking about the resumption of the bull trend is still premature. If investors again begin to receive information about the growing number of patients with coronavirus in China, then global stock indices and commodity prices will again come under pressure. Coronavirus is still the main topic.

A signal for sales will be a breakdown of the support level 51.20 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart). Breakdown of the next important support level of 50.30 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%) will increase pressure on the price towards its further decline with a long-term goal at support level 42.15 (Fibonacci level of 0% and December 2018 lows).

Today, investors and oil market participants will pay attention to the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the next weekly report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes. According to the latest report, the number of active drilling rigs in the US has grown over the past month by just 6 rigs, to 676 units. A decline in demand from China and an increase in US oil reserves will put pressure on US oil producers. If the Baker Hughes report indicates a decrease in the number of active rigs, this could give a short-term positive impetus to prices.

Support Levels: 51.20, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15

Resistance Levels: 53.00, 54.40, 55.40, 56.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

 

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 50.90. Stop-Loss 52.10. Take-Profit 50.30, 49.00, 42.15

Buy Stop 52.10. Stop-Loss 50.90. Take-Profit 53.00, 54.40, 55.40, 56.80, 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: the pound strengthened. What's next?

17/02/2020

The pound strengthened sharply last week, while the GBP / USD pair rose to an intra-week high near 1.3069. The reason was the report of new rearrangements in the office of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. New Finance Minister Rishi Sunak is a staunch supporter of Brexit, lower corporate taxes and capital gains taxes. According to some economists, its appointment may strengthen upward factors for the pound.

However, further growth of the pound and GBP / USD may be difficult.

In the long run, Brexit is still a negative factor for the pound. The UK is unlikely to receive significant preferences or benefits as a result of new international trade agreements.

At the same time, new data on inflation and employment in the UK expected this week may put downward pressure on the pound. These indices will be published on Tuesday and Wednesday (at 09:30 GMT).

Since the opening of today's trading day, GBP / USD has been trading in a narrow range near 1.3030, above important support levels 1.3025 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.3000 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.2850 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), while maintaining a positive the dynamics.

The breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.3069 will provoke further growth of GBP / USD towards the resistance levels of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the GBP / USD decline in the wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3310 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

In an alternative scenario, the breakdown of support levels 1.3025, 1.3000 will be a signal for sales and lower GBP / USD to support level 1.2850.

Today is the day off in the USA (Presidents' Day). In view of this, trading volumes during the American session will be low, which, however, does not exclude the possibility of a sharp short-term increase in volatility in the thin market.

  Support Levels: 1.3025, 1.3000, 1.2850, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2000

Resistance Levels: 1.3069, 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3510, 1.3960

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2985. Stop-Loss 1.3075. Take-Profit 1.2955, 1.2910, 1.2850

Buy Stop 1.3075. Stop-Loss 1.2985. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3510

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: downward trend prevails

18/02/2020

The publication of protocols from the February meeting of the RBA at the beginning of today's Asian session caused a drop in the Australian dollar and the pair AUD / USD. At a meeting on February 4, the RBA board decided to leave interest rates unchanged, at a record low of 0.75%. However, "there is reason to expect a lower key rate", said RBA head Philip Lowe. At the same time, “coronavirus is a new source of uncertainty”, the RBA management believes.

According to bank executives, "the epidemic poses a significant short-term economic risk for China and international trade flows, and therefore for the Australian economy".

Now, investors will follow the publication (on Wednesday and Thursday at 00:30 GMT) of data from the country's labor market in order to determine the further exchange rate of RBA interest rates and, accordingly, the dynamics of AUD. According to the forecast, unemployment is expected to increase in January to 5.2% from 5.1% in December. This is a negative factor for AUD.

Meanwhile, at the beginning of today's European session, AUD / USD is trading near 0.6680, below the key resistance level of 0.6880 (EMA200 on the daily chart), which indicates the prevalence of a downward global trend.

Only after growth into the zone above short-term important resistance levels of 0.6720 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.6780 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) can we return to the consideration of long positions with the target at the resistance level 0.6880.

Negative dynamics of AUD / USD prevails, speaking in favor of its sales.

In case of resumption of decline, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6600, 0.6500, 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).

Support Levels: 0.6670, 0.6660, 0.6600, 0.6300

Resistance Levels: 0.6720, 0.6755, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6845, 0.6880, 0.6935

 

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 0.6665. Stop-Loss 0.6725. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6300, 0.6260

Buy Stop 0.6725. Stop-Loss 0.6665. Take-Profit 0.6755, 0.6780, 0.6800, 0.6845, 0.6880, 0.6935

 

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: when will the fall of the euro stop?

19/02/2020

Macro data published at the beginning of yesterday's European session testified to the growing fears of European investors regarding the spread of coronavirus in China and the worsening business climate in Germany and the Eurozone.

The ZEW Institute reported a fall in the index of economic expectations in Germany in February to 8.7 (against 26.7 in January and a forecast of 21.5) and an economic sentiment index in the Eurozone to 10.4 (against 25.6 in January and a forecast of 30).

The EUR / USD completed the last trading day near the level 1.0789, reaching the lowest level since April 2017.

However, a deeper decline in EUR / USD has not yet been observed. On Wednesday, the pair is trading in a narrow range near the critical level of 1.0800 in anticipation of new drivers, either for corrective growth or for further decline.

It is noteworthy that in the first half of today's trading day there is an increase in the euro in cross-pair with the pound. If the strengthening of the euro extends to other important cross-pairs, we can seriously consider the likelihood of resumption of growth and the EUR / USD.

The first signal to resume purchases of EUR / USD will be a breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.0873 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

So far, the long-term negative dynamics of EUR / USD. A breakdown of the local support level of 1.0790 will speak in favor of short positions and a decrease in EUR / USD towards the lows of March 2015 and the level of 1.0480 (Fibonacci level 0% of the upward correction to the fall of the pair from 1.3870 in May 2014 to 1.0480 reached in March 2015).

On Wednesday, investors will follow the publication (at 19:00 GMT) of the protocol from the January meeting of the Fed. In January, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged and signaled its intention to maintain them at their current level in the near future. The Fed also announced that it will continue to purchase treasury bonds in the 2nd quarter of 2020 and intervene in the repo markets. If the protocols contain new information signaling the Fed’s propensity for a softer policy, then the dollar, which has strengthened significantly in recent days, may decline, which will become a good positive driver for the so far correctional growth of EUR / USD.

Support Levels: 1.0790, 1.0800

Resistance Levels: 1.0815, 1.0873, 1.0900, 1.0945, 1.0990, 1.1080, 1.1115

 

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.0780. Stop-Loss 1.0825. Take-Profit 1.0700, 1.0600

Buy Stop 1.0825. Stop-Loss 1.0780. Take-Profit 1.0873, 1.0900, 1.0945, 1.0990, 1.1080

 

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: long positions are still relevant

20/02/2020

During today's Asian session, the S&P500 updated another record high near 3397.0 mark. Demand for US assets remains. In the current situation of the spread of coronavirus and the slowdown of the Chinese and global economies, the US economy looks most stable. During the January meeting, the Fed signaled increased optimism about the US economy. According to the minutes published Wednesday, Fed leaders "saw an improvement in the balance of risks for economic prospects compared to the previous meeting".

Demand for US assets is growing. So, according to data released last Tuesday, net purchases of US long-term securities by foreign investors in December amounted to $ 85.6 billion, which is $ 60 billion higher than forecast. Economists believe that in the second half of the year the results of American companies will improve.

This, along with expectations of a softer monetary policy by the Fed, creates the prerequisites for further growth of US stock indices.

So, the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wednesday trades increased by 0.4% to 29348.00 points, the S&P 500 grew by 0.5%, to a new record high of 3386.00 points, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.9% to 9817.00, also a new record high.

In the event of a breakdown of the local resistance level 3397.0, the S&P500 growth is likely to continue.

In an alternative scenario and after the breakdown of short-term support levels of 3364.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 3306.0 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), the S&P500 correctional decline may continue to the support level 3250.0 (the lower border of the ascending channel on the daily chart and the highs of 2019). However, only a breakdown of support levels 3025.0 and 2990.0 (Fibonacci level 38.2%) will increase the risks of breaking the bullish trend of S&P500.

Today, investors will pay attention to the publication (at 13:30 GMT) of weekly data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits and the Conference Board index for January (at 15:00 GMT). This index represents the combined value of 10 economic indicators related to employment, new orders, consumer confidence, housing, stock market prices, lending trends and interest spreads. According to the forecast, the index is expected to grow by +0.4%, which is also a positive factor for US stock indices and the dollar.

The S&P500 index maintains a long-term positive trend. Above the support levels 3364.0, 3335.0, long positions are preferred.

Support Levels: 3364.0, 3335.0, 3306.0, 3250.0, 3147.0, 3082.0, 3025.0, 2990.0

Resistance Levels: 3397.0, 3400.0

 

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 3347.0. Stop-Loss 3398.0. Targets 3335.0, 3306.0, 3250.0, 3147.0

Buy Stop 3398.0. Stop-Loss 3347.0. Goals 3450.0, 3490.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: downtrend risk increased

21/02/2020

According to Markit Economics, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the UK manufacturing sector rose in February (51.9 against the forecast of 49.7 and 50.0 in January), reaching a 10-month high. The preliminary PMI for the UK services sector was forecast at 53.4 in February, but came out with a value slightly lower (53.3 against 53.9 in January).

Having received support from positive macro statistics, the pound strengthened, while the GBP / USD pair rose during the European session to an intraday high of 1.2951.

However, further growth of GBP / USD above the intraday high of 1.2951 did not follow. Investors are still cautious about positive macro data against the backdrop of Brexit and the spread of coronavirus in Asia.

The theme of coronavirus today again came to the fore. The growth in the number of new infected people in China and South Korea again raises concerns among investors, including the slowdown in global economic growth.

Economists also believe that the UK draft budget expected on March 11 will not contain plans for a significant fiscal stimulus to the economy, and the yield on UK 10-year government bonds by the 3rd quarter will fall by 40 basis points.

At the same time, the dollar continues to be in demand both as a defensive asset, and against the backdrop of positive macro statistics coming from the United States. Most likely, the DXY dollar index will finish in positive territory for the third week in a row.

Despite the current growth of the GBP / USD pair, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily and weekly charts switched to the side of the sellers, signaling the likelihood of a breakdown of the key support level of 1.2850 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and the resumption of the global GBP / USD downtrend.

GBP / USD has already broken through important short-term support levels of 1.3000 and 1.2962, which speaks in favor of short short-term positions with an immediate goal at the support level of 1.2850.

In an alternative scenario, and after the breakdown of resistance levels 1.2962 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.3000 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart) GBP / USD will resume upward trend and head towards the local resistance level 1.3069. Further growth of GBP / USD in the current situation is unlikely.

Support Levels: 1.2850, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2000

Resistance Levels: 1.2962, 1.3000, 1.3069, 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3510, 1.3960

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2890. Stop-Loss 1.2970. Take-Profit 1.2850, 1.2400, 1.2200, 1.2000

Buy Stop 1.2970. Stop-Loss 1.2890. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.3069, 1.3210, 1.3310, 1.3510, 1.3960

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: short positions

25/02/2020

Amid continued investor concerns about the spread of coronavirus in China and its impact on the European economy, the decline in EUR / USD resumed on Tuesday. According to economists, in the 1st quarter of Germany's GDP growth may slow due to a reduction in exports and supply shortages, including from China and to China. 10% of intermediate goods for German factories come to Germany from China, while China accounts for about 6% of German exports. In China, the coronavirus epidemic has already affected production, export, and consumption levels. Now the virus has reached northern Italy, where more than 50,000 local residents were quarantined last Sunday.

The coronavirus epidemic directly threatens global economic growth, since the supply chain of many international enterprises depends on the supply of intermediate and finished products from China. Economists have warned that the global economy could miss $1 trillion of GDP.

For this reason, the dollar is likely to win, as many investors pay attention to it as a defensive asset along with traditional defensive assets (government bonds, gold).

Published at the beginning of yesterday's European session, the positive macro data on Germany could not decisively change the negative attitude towards the euro by investors.

At the beginning of today's European session, the EUR / USD broke through the short-term support level of 1.0843 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and continues to decline towards recent multi-year lows near the 1.0775 mark reached last week.

Several factors of a fundamental and technical nature speak in favor of a further decline in EUR / USD towards the lows of March 2015 and the level of 1.0480 (Fibonacci level 0% of the upward correction to the fall of the pair from 1.3870 in May 2014 to 1.0480 reached in March 2015)

In this situation, short positions are preferable, even if the upward correction starts again. A signal for her will be a return to the zone above the resistance level of 1.0843.

Support Levels: 1.0800, 1.0775

Resistance Levels: 1.0843, 1.0873, 1.0900, 1.0945, 1.0990, 1.1100

 

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.0880. Take-Profit 1.0775, 1.0700, 1.0600

Buy Stop 1.0880. Stop-Loss 1.0790. Take-Profit 1.0900, 1.0945, 1.0990, 1.1100

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: negativity prevails

26/02/2020

The positive mood of investors related to the signing of the “first phase” trade agreement between the US and China last month changed to a pessimistic one due to the spread of coronavirus outside of China, which could have an even greater negative impact on the global economy.

Earlier this month, Chinese President Xi Jinping assured US President Trump of China's intention to fulfill the obligations of a recently signed trade deal. At the same time, Jerome Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve System, said that the rapid spread of the virus will inevitably affect the Chinese economy and may affect the US economy.

And so, investors' fears intensified on Tuesday after reports of the further spread of coronavirus and warnings of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) about a potential pandemic.

The S&P 500 fell another 0.3% on Tuesday to 3138.00 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.8%, reaching 8966.00 points, losing growth compared to the beginning of the year. Last week, the DJIA was trading near 29528.0, which corresponds to record and absolute highs. But today, at the beginning of the European session, DJIA futures are trading near the 26900.0 mark, 9.6% below last week's highs.

Protective assets are again in active demand. On Wednesday, the yield on 10-year US government bonds fell at the beginning of the European session to 1.321% (against 1.473% at the end of last week and against 1.576% at the beginning of last week), which corresponds to the lows of 2016. Gold quotes also resumed growth after falling on Tuesday.

DJIA broke through the important support level of 27546.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart) and at the beginning of today's European session it is traded near 27070.0.

It is not excluded that the index may decline further to support levels of 26220.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of correction to the DJIA growth wave that began in February 2016 from 15500.0), 25200.0 (August lows and ЕМА144 on the weekly chart), 24600.0 (June 2019 lows).

However, only a breakdown of the support level of 24150.0 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 38.2%) can break the DJIA long-term bullish trend.

Growth into the zone above the resistance level of 27546.0 will revive the positive dynamics of the DJIA and once again make long positions relevant.

Support Levels: 26700.0, 26220.0, 25200.0, 24600.0, 24150.0

Resistance Levels: 27546.0, 27900.0, 28160.0, 28630.0, 28840.0, 29528.0

 

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 27350.0. Stop-Loss 26700.0. Take-Profit 27546.0, 27900.0, 28160.0, 28630.0, 28840.0, 29528.0

Sell Stop 26700.0. Stop-Loss 27350.0. Take-Profit 26220.0, 25200.0, 24600.0, 24150.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

Brent: short positions

27/02/2020

Amid falling global stock indices due to investors' fears about the increased risks of the coronavirus pandemic, oil prices continue to decline. On Wednesday, the price of Brent crude oil broke through the bottom line of the upward channel on the weekly chart, passing through the mark of 53.50, and continued to decline in the first half of today's trading day. At the beginning of today's European session, Brent crude is traded near 52.40, falling in price for the 5th day in a row.

Prices are also falling amid disagreements between OPEC and Russia over oil production restrictions. Next week, the OPEC+ coalition summit will be held in Vienna. Saudi Arabia insists on a further reduction in total production; however, these proposals did not find support from Russia. If OPEC+ fails to agree on an additional reduction in production volumes, this will lead to an even larger decline in oil prices.

The oil market is dominated by bearish sentiment.

The price may receive support on Friday if the next weekly report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes indicates a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. However, in any case, this support will be very short-term and limited.

The downward trend prevails, pushing the price towards the December low of $50.00 per barrel. Only growth into the zone above the resistance levels of 62.50 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 63.90 (Fibonacci level 38.2%) will again make long-term long positions relevant.

A signal to start shopping can be a breakdown of the resistance levels 56.20 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and 56.90 (Fibonacci level 50% of downward correction in the wave of price growth from the level near the level of 27.10 to the highs of October 2018 near the level of 86.60 dollars per barrel). Short positions are preferred so far.

  Support Levels: 52.00, 51.00, 50.00

Resistance Levels: 53.50, 56.20, 56.90, 58.60, 60.40, 61.80, 62.50, 63.90

 

Trading recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 54.10. Take-Profit 52.00, 51.00, 50.00

Buy Stop 54.10. Stop-Loss 52.10. Take-Profit 56.20, 56.90, 58.60, 60.40, 61.80, 62.50, 63.90

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: negative dynamics

28/02/2020

World and US stock indices continued to decline in the first half of today's trading day.

Last Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell another 4.4% to 25766.00 points, the S&P 500 fell 4.4% to 2978.00 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 4.6% to 8566.00 points. All three indices fell more than 10% from their recent highs reached this month, moving to the territory of correction.

Due to the global spread of coronavirus, investors avoid risky assets and prefer protective assets such as government bonds and gold.

According to the latest data, the number of people infected with coronavirus worldwide exceeded 82,000, and the death toll was 2,800.

Pessimism of investors is dominant in financial markets, associated with expectations of a slowdown in the global economy due to coronavirus. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, the yield on 10-year US government bonds fell to 1.163% (against 1.505% at the end of last month), which corresponds to absolute record lows.

S&P500 has lost by now more than 15%, having dropped from absolute highs, where it was still 2 weeks ago.

The index broke through the most important long-term support levels 3080.0 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), 2990.0 (Fibonacci level 38.2% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and the level of 2335.0) and continued to decline in the first half of today's trading day. In case of further decline, the targets will be the support levels of 2865.0 (Fibonacci level 50%), 2740.0 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), 2700.0 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart).

The first signal for purchases may be a breakdown of the resistance levels of 2990.0 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 3025.0 (highs of July 2019), and after the S&P500 returns to the zone above the resistance levels of 3080.0, 3147.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6%), the index will continue to grow , and the long-term bull trend will resume.

Support Levels: 2865.0, 2740.0, 2700.0

Resistance Levels: 2990.0, 3025.0, 3080.0, 3147.0

 

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 2875.0. Stop-Loss 2995.0. Objectives 2865.0, 2740.0, 2700.0

Buy Stop 2995.0. Stop-Loss 2875.0. Objectives 3025.0, 3080.0, 3147.0, 3200.0, 3400.0, 3450.0, 3490.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: commodity currencies strengthened on Monday

02/03/2020

During the Asian session on Monday, the AUD / USD pair rose by 1.3% to 0.6550, which is 115 points higher than the minimum reached last Friday.

Some economists and investors are beginning to gradually realize that fears of a global coronavirus pandemic and a fall in global stock indices have turned out to be excessive.

Moreover, some leaders of global central banks have made it clear that central banks will support the economy if necessary.

Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, made it clear on Friday that the central bank is preparing to lower interest rates to support the economy in light of the spread of coronavirus.

On Monday, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank is closely monitoring the development of the situation around the coronavirus and "will be able to provide enough liquidity, as well as ensure the stability of financial markets through market operations and asset acquisitions".

Market participants will be waiting for the results of the meetings of the central banks of Australia and Canada, which will be held this week. Some investors and economists expect the RBA to cut rates by 25 basis points on Tuesday, and then continue to cut rates in April.

If the RBA takes this step, then other major central banks may follow suit. The decision on the RBA interest rate will be published on Tuesday at 03:30 (GMT).

On Monday, AUD / USD is growing, trying to develop a correction into the zone above the short-term resistance level of 0.6587 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

In case of its breakdown, correctional growth will continue to resistance levels of 0.6670, 0.6700 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart).

A signal for the resumption of decline may be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 0.6535 (EMA200 on the 15-minute chart).

Below the key resistance level of 0.6850 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the downward global trend of AUD / USD prevails.

  Support Levels: 0.6535, 0.6500, 0.6434, 0.6400, 0.6300

Resistance Levels: 0.6587, 0.6670, 0.6700, 0.6755, 0.6810, 0.6850

 

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 0.6530. Stop-Loss 0.6590. Take-Profit 0.6500, 0.6434, 0.6400, 0.6300

Buy Stop 0.6590. Stop-Loss 0.6530. Take-Profit 0.6670, 0.6700, 0.6755, 0.6810, 0.6850

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: global central banks will support the economy

03/03/2020

Back in January, the USD / CAD was traded near the multi-month low of 1.2960, which corresponds to the levels of October 2018. However, already at the end of February, USD / CAD reached 1.3460 (June 2019 levels), gaining 4.3% in two months.

Fears about the coronavirus pandemic caused a severe drop in world stock indices and commodity prices, with which crawled down and commodity currencies quotes.

In its latest report, released on Monday, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lowered its forecast for economic growth in 2020, as China's economy was hit hard by the outbreak of coronavirus. Now the OECD expects that global GDP this year will grow by 2.4% compared to 2.9% according to the December forecast.

Investors now hope that global central banks and government departments will help markets stabilize and protect the economy from the effects of coronavirus.

The RB of Australia lowered its interest rate by 0.25% on Tuesday, bringing it to the level of 0.50%, which was the fourth decrease in less than a year. RBA Governor Philip Lowe signaled the likelihood of further policy easing.

On Wednesday, a meeting of the Bank of Canada will take place, and the decision on the rate will be published at 15:00 (GMT).

If the Bank of Canada reduces the rate by 0.25%, then it will drop to 1.50% from the current 1.75%.

Signs of worsening morbidity in Iran, Italy and South Korea are forcing market participants and global central banks and governments to overestimate the severity of impending problems. The decline in world commodity prices, primarily oil, is also putting pressure on the Canadian dollar. Thus, the USD / CAD pair is likely to maintain positive momentum, at least this week.

Above the short-term support level of 1.3330 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart), only long positions should be considered. A signal for sales may be a breakdown of this support level with a target at support levels 1.3253 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.3215 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart). Above the support level of 1.3215, the bullish trend of USD / CAD prevails.

Support Levels: 1.3345, 1.3330, 1.3253, 1.3215

Resistance Levels: 1.3380, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3310. Stop-Loss 1.3410. Take-Profit 1.3253, 1.3215

Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 1.3310. Take-Profit 1.3380, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: emergency measures

04/03/2020

As a result of an almost recoilless decline over the past 2 months, the NZD / USD pair reached a local minimum near the 0.6190 mark in early March, which corresponds to the lows of July 2009, when the global crisis of 2008 only began to decline.

However, in early March, the decline in NZD / USD stopped, and in the last 3 days the pair rose sharply, reaching 0.6300 at the beginning of today's European session.

On Tuesday, representatives of the G7 promised to use all the necessary tools to protect their economies from the risks associated with the outbreak of coronavirus, and the Fed unexpectedly lowered the interest rate by 0.50%. “The fundamental economic indicators of the United States remain strong. Nevertheless, coronavirus poses a growing risk for economic activity”, the central bank said. “The Committee (the Federal Reserve for Open Market Operations) is closely monitoring developments and their potential impact on economic prospects. intending to use their tools and act accordingly to support the economy".

In March, the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the National Bank of Switzerland, and the RB of New Zealand will hold their next meetings on monetary policy, and today the Bank of Canada will decide on the rates.

He will probably also follow the example of the Fed and lower the interest rate. A meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is scheduled for March 25. The bank is likely to lower its key interest rate, and it is possible to lower it by 0.50%. However, a more significant role in the dynamics of NZD will be played by the state of world stock markets.

 If the growth of stock indices continues, then, accordingly, commodity currencies, in particular, NZD, will continue to strengthen.

OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts of the pair NZD / USD turned to long positions. In case of continued growth of NZD / USD, the target will be the resistance level of 0.6500 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

Below this level of resistance, negative long-term dynamics still prevail, and a return to the zone below the level of 0.6300 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will cause a resumption of the decline in NZD / USD.

In this case, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6260 (September 2015 lows and the Fibonacci level 0% of the correction in the global wave of pair decline from the level of 0.8820), 0.6205 (September lows), 0.6190 (local multi-year lows).

Support Levels: 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100

Resistance Levels: 0.6300, 0.6322, 0.6378, 0.6406, 0.6485, 0.6505, 0.6600, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6740, 0.6830, 0.6865

 

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6290. Stop-Loss 0.6325. Take-Profit 0.6260, 0.6200, 0.6100

Buy Stop 0.6325. Stop-Loss 0.6290. Take-Profit 0.6378, 0.6406, 0.6485, 0.6505, 0.6600, 0.6635, 0.6665, 0.6740, 0.6830, 0.6865

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

Brent: prices remain vulnerable

05/03/2020

The price of oil continues to decline. It is likely that until a final turning point in the global stock market occurs, commodity prices, including oil, will remain under pressure with a tendency to further decline.

Today, oil market participants will be waiting for the first results of the OPEC+ coalition meeting. The positive outcome of the meeting may be the first step towards the restoration of the oil market.

At the same time, lower interest rates by global central banks can help the global economy deal with the impact of a coronavirus outbreak. This will also positively affect oil quotes.

Investors expect the OPEC+ coalition to further reduce production to stabilize the oil market. At the same time, the exact amount of a possible additional decline in production, which is 1.7 million barrels per day, is not yet clear.

If the parties cannot agree on significant volumes of production cuts, then the positive effect of the meeting in Vienna will be short-lived.

In case of breakdown of the support level of 50.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of  downward correction in the wave of price growth from a level near the level of 27.10 to the highs of October 2018 near the level of 86.60 dollars per barrel), the nearest targets will be support levels of 49.00 (local minimum), 48.00 (lower downward channel border on the daily chart).

Only a breakdown of the key resistance level of 62.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will again make long positions relevant. Below this resistance level, long-term negative dynamics prevail.

Support Levels: 50.00, 49.00, 48.00

Resistance Levels: 53.50, 54.30, 56.90, 58.50, 60.40, 62.00

 

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 54.40. Take-Profit 50.00, 49.00, 48.00

Buy Stop 54.40. Stop-Loss 51.90. Take-Profit 56.20, 56.90, 58.50, 60.40, 61.80

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: panic?

06/03/2020

Increased fears of a coronavirus pandemic plummeted global stocks at the start of today's European session. The DXY dollar index fell below 96.00, and the yield on 10-year US bonds fell by almost 18%, to 0.723%, to historical lows.

The growth of almost panic investor sentiment was facilitated by information on the penetration of coronavirus into the United States. EUR / USD updated the highs of July 2019, breaking through the psychologically significant resistance level of 1.1300, and reached the first critical resistance level of 1.1340 at the beginning of today's European session (EMA144 on the weekly chart). If the growth of EUR / USD does not stop, then the pair can reach the key resistance level of 1.1440 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), the breakdown of which can signal the breaking of the long-term bearish trend of EUR / USD.

Last Tuesday, the Fed unexpectedly lowered the interest rate by 0.50%, substantiating its decision with the need for preventive measures to maintain the American economy, which, according to Fed leaders, remains strong. The next Fed meeting will be held on March 18, and it is possible that the rate will be reduced again. By the way, US President Donald Trump after the Fed lowered the rate on Tuesday again called on the Fed to lower the interest rate even lower, down to 0%. “They (the Fed) are acting belatedly”, Trump said, but should, in his opinion, act ahead of events.

Today, volatility in the financial markets may rise again at 13:30 (GMT), when data from the US labor market will be published. Strong data expected.

Nevertheless, even if the data are confirmed or turn out to be better than expected (NFP is expected to grow by 175,000 new jobs), one should not expect a significant strengthening of the dollar and a fall in EUR / USD.

The fall of European stock indices leaves the euro, which is the funding currency, no chance of weakening.

In the current situation of growth of already almost panic moods, it makes no sense to expect a quick recovery of world stock indices. Technical analysis fades into the background.

And, nevertheless, you can’t completely forget about the alternative scenario. The first signal to start the correctional decline will be the breakdown of support levels 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of upward correction to the fall of the pair from 1.3870 in May 2014 to 1.0480 reached in March 2015), 1.1240 (ЕМА200 on the 5-minute price chart and highs of December 2019).

However, only the return of EUR / USD to the zone below the key support level of 1.1100 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will reassure investors and create the prerequisites for the pair to sell.

Support Levels: 1.1300, 1.1285, 1.1240, 1.1205, 1.1100

Resistance Levels: 1.1340, 1.1400, 1.1440

 

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1275. Stop-Loss 1.1330. Take-Profit 1.1240, 1.1205, 1.1100

Buy Stop 1.1330. Stop-Loss 1.1275. Take-Profit 1.1340, 1.1400, 1.1440

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: “gloomy” prospects

11/03/2020

Financial markets continue to be in a fever amid growing coronavirus epidemics and the risks of a significant slowdown in the global economy. Another negative factor unexpectedly added to the coronavirus factor last Friday, when the OPEC+ coalition practically collapsed. Russia and Saudi Arabia could not agree on a further reduction in oil production and export. Oil prices crashed down. They were followed by global stock indices and other commodity prices.

Last Monday, at the beginning of the trading day, the AUD / USD pair broke through the multi-year support level of 0.6435 for a short time (11-year low and Fibonacci level 0% of the correction to the decline wave, which began in July 2014 from 0.9500). And although AUD / USD subsequently rose, reaching an intraday high of 0.6680, the pair resumed its decline on Tuesday.

In early March, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its key rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 0.5%, which was the fourth rate cut in less than a year. “Ready for further easing of monetary policy”, the RBA said.

The Australian government is now preparing to announce fiscal stimulus measures in response to the economic damage from the epidemic. It seems increasingly likely that, because of the coronavirus, Australia's economy could go into recession for the first time in 28 years.

The prospects for the Australian dollar look depressing, given the sharp drop in commodity prices, including coal, oil and petroleum products, and iron ore, the main commodities of Australian commodity exports.

At the beginning of today's European session, the AUD / USD pair is trading near the 0.6525 mark, falling from an intraday high of 0.6535 reached earlier. With any upward correction of AUD, you should probably look for opportunities to enter short positions, including in the AUD / USD pair. Although, entering in the short positions "by the market" is likely to be appropriate too.

Below the key resistance level of 0.6830 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the downward global trend of AUD / USD prevails.

In the current situation and below the resistance level of 0.6655 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart), only short positions should be considered.

Support Levels: 0.6500, 0.6435, 0.6400, 0.6310

Resistance Levels: 0.6575, 0.6655, 0.6700, 0.6755, 0.6790, 0.6830

 

Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 0.6480. Stop-Loss 0.6580. Take-Profit 0.6435, 0.6400, 0.6310

Buy Stop 0.6580. Stop-Loss 0.6480. Take-Profit 0.6600, 0.6655, 0.6700, 0.6755, 0.6790, 0.6830

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: contradictory dynamics

12/03/2020

Today, investors will follow the ECB meeting, which will end with the publication at 12:45 (GMT) of the decision on interest rates. At 13:30 a press conference of the ECB will begin, during which the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde will explain the decision of the bank, assess the prospects of the European economy and, probably, touch on further plans for the monetary policy of the bank, as well as answer questions from journalists.

Earlier this month, 4 of the world's largest central banks (RB of Australia, Bank of Canada, Fed, Bank of England) reduced interest rates. The Fed, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England took unprecedented measures by cutting the interest rate by 0.50%, and the Fed and the Bank of England did this during an extraordinary meeting.

The ECB is also expected to expand the stimulus package and lower the key interest rate, which is already in negative territory, at -0.5%.

The markets are dominated by fear of the global coronavirus pandemic. Many global stock indices have already moved to the side of the bear market.

At the beginning of this week, the EUR / USD pair briefly exceeded the key resistance level 1.1440 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), which separates EUR / USD from the bullish trend.

At the beginning of today's European session, EUR / USD is traded near 1.1230, below the important short-term support level of 1.1240 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), indicating a tendency to further decline.

Above the important support level 1.1120 (ЕМА200 on the daily chart), the upward trend prevails. The return of EUR / USD into the zone above the level of 1.1240 will be a signal for the resumption of long positions, although probably the most cautious investors will prefer to stay out of the market today.

Support Levels: 1.1240, 1.1205, 1.1120, 1.1080

Resistance Levels: 1.1285, 1.1340, 1.1400, 1.1440, 1.1490

 

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1290. Take-Profit 1.1205, 1.1120, 1.1080

Buy Stop 1.1310. Stop-Loss 1.1220. Take-Profit 1.1340, 1.1400, 1.1440, 1.1490

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: further decline is not ruled out

13/03/2020

Despite the correction of world stock indices observed today, it is still too early to start their purchases. The markets are dominated by investors' fears about the spread of coronavirus in the world and the slowdown of the global economy. World and US stock indices show the strongest decline over the past few years. Just 4 weeks ago, the DJIA was trading near the absolute maximum 29528.0. However, the collapse of the DJIA index crossed out almost all of its 3-year growth.

Donald Trump for 30 days banned the entry into the United States from Europe due to the coronavirus, which raised new concerns about the economic impact of the coronavirus.

A number of the world's largest central banks have taken a sharp decline in interest rates, with the Fed and the Bank of England cutting interest rates by 50 bp at once during their extraordinary meetings.

“Coronavirus poses a growing risk for economic activity”, the US Central Bank said.

Next week (March 17 - 18), the Fed will hold its next scheduled meeting. Investors and economists believe that the Fed will again lower the interest rate at this meeting, dropping it by another 50 bp to the level of 0.75%. Last week, when the Fed unexpectedly cut the rate by 0.50%, Donald Trump urged the Fed to lower it to zero.

Such a decision by the Fed could support the US stock market. However, to say that the worst is over is still too early. The spread of coronavirus in the world does not stop, covering all new regions.

The market is dominated by pessimistic sentiment, which can again bring down stock indices to new local lows.

At the beginning of today's European session, the DJIA is trading near the level of 22200.0, trying to adjust to the area above the level of 22520.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the DJIA growth wave, which began in February 2016 from 15500.0). But you should still refrain from shopping.

A further index decline to the support levels 20850.0 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), 20400.0 (local lows and ЕМА144 on the monthly chart), 19700.0 (EMA200 on the monthly chart) is not ruled out.

The first signal for DJIA purchases may be its growth into a zone above the resistance levels 24150.0 (ЕМА200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 38.2%), 24400.0 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

In case of negative developments, a breakdown of the support level of 19700.0 can break the DJIA long-term bullish trend.

Support Levels: 20850.0, 20400.0, 19700.0

Resistance Levels: 22520.0, 24150.0, 24400.0, 25200.0, 26220.0, 27200.0, 28160.0, 28630.0, 28840.0, 29528.0

 

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 22600.0. Stop-Loss 21600.0. Take-Profit 24150.0, 24400.0, 25200.0, 26220.0, 27200.0

Sell Stop 21600.0. Stop-Loss 22600.0. Take-Profit 20850.0, 20400.0, 19700.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

[TifiaFX]

Brent: fall continues

16/03/2020

Having exceeded the limit of restrictions in the electronic trading system by 5%, at the opening of the trading day on Monday, futures for the US S&P 500 index fell to around 2568.0. Probably, at the opening of the American trading session, US stock indices will also begin with a sharp drop.

Last Sunday, the Fed held another emergency meeting and cut rates, this time by 100 bp, to a range of 0% - 0.25%, and also announced the allocation of $ 700 billion for the purchase of US government bonds and securities with a mortgage cover.

Global stock indices also continued to decline on Monday. The Australian S&P/ASX 200 fell by a record 9.7%, ending the session about 30% below the peak reached less than a month ago.

The British FTSE 100 in London fell another 7.5% after falling at the opening of electronic trading on Monday by 5%, the European Stoxx Europe 600 at the opening of trading fell by 4.7%. Indices of Hong Kong, Shanghai, South Korea and Japan fell by more than 3%.

Investors no longer pay attention to the Fed and are waiting for the actions of the federal authorities - more serious support to the economy. In the US, government measures may include tax cuts, direct payments to households, earmarked funding, increased federal spending, and other measures.

According to Jerome Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve System, when the Fed decided to lower the rate last Sunday, one of the factors that influenced the central bank’s decision to soften its monetary policy was a sharp drop in oil prices.

WTI oil futures are trading at the beginning of today's European session at a price below $ 30.00 per barrel. Brent oil contracts also traded lower.

Oil market analysts believe that the unexpected increase in oil production due to the severance of partnership between Russia and OPEC, as well as the escalation of the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, will increase pressure on quotes, which threatens to reduce them further.

Last week, Saudi Arabia offered buyers from Europe some grades of oil at a price of $25 per barrel.

Brent crude declined on Monday to around 30.50. Probably, the fall in prices may continue.

At the beginning of today's European session, Brent crude is trading at $30.60 a barrel.

Technical indicators OsMA and Stochastic are on the side of the sellers on the 4-hour, daily, weekly, monthly charts, signaling the likelihood of a further price decline.

If the decline continues, then very soon it will be possible to see Brent oil near the price level of $27.00 per barrel. So low oil has not been traded since the end of January 2016, when it reached local multi-year lows.

In an alternative scenario, if the correction starts and after the breakdown of the local resistance level of 40.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), prices will rise to recent lows of 46.00 - 50.00 dollars per barrel. But only a breakdown of the key resistance level of 60.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will resume the bullish trend. Below this level of resistance, long-term negative dynamics prevail. Short positions are preferred.

Support levels: 30.00, 29.00, 28.00, 27.00

Resistance levels: 40.00, 46.00, 50.00, 53.50, 54.30, 56.90, 58.50, 60.00, 62.00

 

Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 33.60. Take-Profit 30.00, 29.00, 28.00, 27.00

Buy Stop 33.60. Stop-Loss 29.90. Take-Profit 40.00, 46.00, 50.00, 53.50, 54.30, 56.90, 58.50, 60.00, 61.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com