Cocoa Daily Fundamental Analysis

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Cocoa futures on ICE Futures  was closed down. The weakening of cocoa prices this weekend also brought cocoa prices this week dropped. Cocoa price slump depressed sentiment strengthening US dollar, falling demand and rising inventories of cocoa.

 

At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts in May 2017 which is the most active contract closed slump observed. Commodity prices fell by 1.70 percent at 1,962 dollars per ton.

 

The dollar rose against Yen after the meeting Trump-Abe went smoothly and the planned tax reform will be launched by US President Donald Trump. A stronger dollar makes dollar-based commodities cocoa have become more expensive in other currencies, so the demand decreases.

 

Data from Barry Callebaut showed global chocolate sales fell -2.3% in the three months through November. While data from the National Confectioners Association reported that cocoa grinding Q4 North America were down -1.1% y / y to 117 588 MT, weaker than expectations rose + 1.7% y / y and the lowest for six years Q4in.

 

Analysts estimated that the price of cocoa futures for the next trade will move in a limited tendency to weaken by sharing the bearish sentiment. However, it should be observed bargain hunting after the price of cocoa slumped. For the next session Cocoa has the potential to penetrate the resistance level at 2.010 dollar

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ICE Futures price of cocoa futures at the end of trading on Tuesday morning (14/02) was closed down. The weakening of cocoa prices triggered a stronger dollar and the availability of supplies.

The US dollar rose to a near three-week high against a basket of currencies on Monday, lifted by hopes of US tax cuts to stoke corporate profits and investment, as well as forecast the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more quickly. A stronger dollar makes dollar-based commodities cocoa have become more expensive in other currencies, so the demand decreases.

The decline in prices was also triggered by the prospect of increasing production. Uniform rainfall last week in most of the main cocoa growing regions in Ivory Coast mid-crop is expected to increase next, despite the hot weather elsewhere raised fears of fire.

Analysts estimated that the price of cocoa futures to trade would potentially weaken further limited by the strengthening US dollar. For the next trading price of cocoa futures has the potential to penetrate the support level at 1,875 dollars.

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Price of cocoa futures at the end of trading on ICE Wednesday morning (15/02) was closed down. The weakening of cocoa prices triggered by the strengthening US dollar. The dollar index hit its highest in more than three weeks after Yellen's speech before the Senate Banking Committee. 

US Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen said the central bank may raise interest rates at its next meeting if the economy develops further. At the end of the morning before the trading, price of cocoa futures contracts in May 2017 which is the most active contract fell down. The commodity price dropped around 1.04 percent at 1,905 dollars per ton.

Analysts estimated Price of Cocoa futures for the next trade would potentially weaken further but still limited by the strengthening US Dollar's stance. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures has the potential to penetrate the support level at 1,850 dollar.

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Price of cocoa futures continue strengthening in late trade on Friday morning (17/02). Strengthening cocoa prices supported by investor's short covering. Cocoa futures contract touched its lowest point since October 2008 this week, on selling related to a wave of defaults in top producer Ivory Coast.

Short covering also helped by the weakening US dollar. The US dollar fell to its lowest in five days by going to the market doubts the certainty of a rate hike planned US Fed three times in 2017. Cocoa futures price observed to closed uder bullish sentiment. The rice rise by 2.77 percent at 2,042 dollars per ton.

Analysts predicted that the price of cocoa futures to hereinafter potentially weaker trade with the strengthening US dollar triggered bargain hunting. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to penetrate the support level at 1,990 dollar.

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Price of Cocoa futures at the end of trading on Thursday morning (23/02) closed down slightly. The weakening of cocoa prices triggered an increase in supply in West Africa. Ivory Coast anticipating near record production of between 1.9 and 2.0 million tonnes. 

Ghana now expects production of close to 800,000 tonnes. Many cocoa available on the world market, but demand has fallen and needs to be rebuilt. Problems in West Africa for the latest default of the local industry has been pressuring prices even more, and now some of the cocoa is being left to rot on trees or in storage.

Analysts in this case estimated that Cocoa futures for the next session would potentially weaken further limited by the strengthening US dollar. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to penetrate the support level at 1,950 dollar.

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Cocoa futures on ICE Futures trading late weekend early Saturday (25/02) was closed down. The weakening of the cocoa price is the lowest of 8.5 years, triggered oversupply in Ivory Coast.

We have so many supplies from Ivory Coast where farmers in the country are having trouble finding buyers for their cocoa beans. More recently, a large number of local exporters reneged on a contract and now many cocoa beans are unemployed. These beans are rapidly deteriorating in quality, and some farmers refused to sell at the moment, so the prices are low.

While the weak price environment today is largely the result of excess supply, demand is also problematic. Cocoa consumption has been disappointing over the last year. At the end of trading Cocoa futures contracts fall down. Commodity prices closed down by 1.58 percent at 1,994 dollars per ton.

Analysts predicted that the price of cocoa futures to trade would potentially weaken further limited by the strengthening US dollar. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE has the potential to penetrate the support level at 1,940 dollars.

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Cocoa futures on ICE  at the end of trading on Tuesday morning (28/02) was closed down. The weakening of cocoa prices triggered by the good weather in the Ivory Coast are on the positive sentiment increased production.

 

A good rain in the last week in most major regions Ivory Coast cocoa crop is a positive sign for the development of the mid-crop but hot weather can hit, farmers said on Monday.  At the end of trading early this morning Cocoa futures contracts in May 2017 which is the most active contract slumped. Price closed down by 0.60 percent at 1,982 dollars per ton.

 

Analysts estimated Cocoa futures for the next trading session will likely strengthen further limited by the weaker US dollar. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to penetrate the resistance level at 2,030 dollar.

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Cocoa futures in late trade on Friday morning (03/03) closed up. Strengthening cocoa prices triggered bargain hunting investors. Bargain hunting going on after cocoa prices continue to weaken for four consecutive days this week. Even during the month of February, the price of cocoa fell 9 percent.

 

Cheapening the price of cocoa used traders to take action to buy. At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts in May 2017 which is the most active contract closed with a record increase was observed. The commodity price closed up by 1.63 percent at 1,928 dollars per ton.

 

Likewise, the still abundant supply of cocoa in major producing countries in West Africa, is still a bearish sentiment for the price of cocoa. Cocoa futures hereinafter potentially weak trading with the US dollar strengthening and buildup of supply. For the next trading price of cocoa futures has the potential to penetrate the support level at 1,880 dollar

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Cocoa futures at the end of trading on Tuesday morning (07/03) was closed down. The weakening of cocoa prices triggered the good weather in the Ivory Coast are on the positive sentiment increased production.

 

Hot dry weather and strong in some cocoa growing regions of the main Ivorian raising concerns about the size and quality of the cocoa mid-crop to come, farmers Monday following forecasts for record production.

 

At the end of trading early this morning the price of cocoa futures contracts in May 2017 which is the most active contract closed slump observed. Commodity prices closed down by 1.02 percent at 1,935 dollars per ton.

 

Analysts estimated Cocoa futures trading will likely strengthen further limited if the dollar weakness occurs. For the next trading price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to penetrate the resistance level at 1,985 dollars.

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The price of Cocoa futures on ICE in the end of trading late Friday (09/06) closed up. The increase in cocoa prices is supported by the purchase of cocoa by Ghana. Ghana will start purchasing small cacao plants on Friday and will maintain the price at which it bought peanuts from farmers at 7,600 cedis ($ 1,914) per ton, industry regulators Cocobod said on Wednesday.

 

Cocobod has projected to buy about 70,000 tonnes of grain through a mid-harvest harvest typically 11 weeks that is discounted to local grinders. At the end of trading, cocoa futures contract is closed by posting an increase.  Cocoa closed by 6 dollars or 0.30 percent at 1989 dollars per ton.

 

Analysts expect that cocoa futures prices for subsequent trades are potentially weak if the strength of the US dollar is realized by the testimony of former FBI director James Comey. For next session, cocoa futures prices may potentially will break the Support level at 1.940 dollar.

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The price of Cocoa futures on ICE futures (22/06) closed down. The decline of Cocoa price caused by the depressed expectation of increased crops in Ivory Coast. Dealers said the market was back on the defensive after a short-covering rally was exhausted earlier this week with news said that Ghana's main crop has climbed to a six-year high, adding to fears about oversupply this season.

 

At the end of trading early this morning, cocoa futures contract for July 2017 which is the most active contract monitored closed with a decline. This commodity price actually closed down by 65 dollars or 3.39 percent at 1.853 dollars per ton.

 

Analysts expect that the price of cocoa futures for future trading could potentially rise if the weakening US dollar continues. For futures trading, cocoa futures prices on ICE Futures New York potentially will break the resistance level at 1,900 dollars.

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The price of cocoa futures at the end of trading session late Tuesday seems to closed up. The increase of cocoa prices is supported by the weakening US dollar. A weaker US dollar makes this dollar-based cocoa commodity cheaper in other currencies.

 

At the end of trading, cocoa futures contract price in July 2017, which is the most active contract, was closed by posting an increase. Commodity prices closed up by 56 dollars or 3.07 percent at 1,879 dollars per ton.

 

This weekend's surge has kept cocoa prices tumbled further this week, though cocoa prices are still down 7.35 percent this week. The drop in cocoa prices was due to weak demand and high production, coupled with dollar-strengthening pressure and profit-taking.

 

Tonight will be released Durable Goods Orders data and may be indicated an increase. If realized then would strengthen US dollar. Therefore Analysts expect that the price of cocoa futures for subsequent trades potentially declines. For futures trading, cocoa futures prices have the potential to break the support level at 1.830 dollars.

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The price of Cocoa futures on ICE Futures at the end of trading on Tuesday (27/06) closed down. The decline in cocoa prices is under pressure to increase cocoa production. Cocoa futures lost about 6.7% last week due to the return of wet weather to key cocoa growth areas in West Africa. Cocoa has struggled to move higher amid the estimated cocoa surplus, along with sluggish demand growth.

 

Last month, the International Cocoa Organization raised its forecast for the 2016-17 season, indicating a surplus of 382,000 tonnes compared to an earlier forecast of 264,000 tonnes, as supply of cocoa swelled in Ivory Coast, the world's largest grower. Some private research firms have forecast another big surplus for next season

 

At the end of trading early this morning, the price of cocoa futures contract for September 2017 which is the most active contract monitored closed with a decline. The price of the commodity closed down 34 dollars or 1.81 percent at 1,845 dollars per ton.

 

Analysts expect that the price of cocoa futures for future trading could potentially rise if the weakening US dollar continues. For the next trading seesion, cocoa futures prices on ICE Futures New York potentially will break the resistance level at 1,900 dollars.

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The price of ICE Futures cocoa futures in late trading Wednesday (28/06) closed up. The increase of cocoa prices is supported by technical buying action. Dealers said the market was supported by some speculative buying and short-covering, as prices edged closer to oversold territory. But technical barriers and the lackluster interest of industrial buyers ruin the profits.

 

At the end of trading, cocoa futures contract price for September 2017 which is the most active contract is closed by posted an increase. The price of the commodity closed up by around 18 dollars or 0.98 percent at 1,863 dollars per ton.

 

Analysts for this field estimates that cocoa futures prices for subsequent trades are potentially weak if the strengthening US dollar is realized. For next commodity trading, cocoa futures prices on ICE Futures New York potentially will break the Support level at 1,810 dollars.

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The price of ICE Futures cocoa futures at the end of trading Friday dawn (30/06) closed down. The decline in cocoa prices is under pressure by the increase cocoa production. An estimation for worldwide crop harvesting has boosted the prospect of a surplus this season and has lowered prices since last year.

 

At the end of trading early this morning, the price of cocoa futures contract for September 2017 which is the most active contract monitored closed with a decline. The price of the commodity closed down by around 1.22 percent towards 1.861 dollars per ton.

 

Analysts suggested that cocoa futures prices for further trade may potentially rise if the weakening US dollar continues. For futures trading, cocoa futures prices on ICE Futures New York potentially will break the resistance level at 1.910 dollar.

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The price of cocoa futures on ICE Futures at the end of trading seems falling down. The weakening of cocoa prices hampered by the strengthening US dollar that rose following the Index after US Non Farm Payrolls data rose more than expected.

 

At the end of trading early this afternoon cocoa futures contract futures September 2017 which is the most active contract monitored closed down. The price of the commodity closed slumped by 2.85 percent at 1,872 dollars per ton.

 

For the weekly prediction, cocoa prices have plunged about 4 percent more largely due to an increase in Ivory Coast's supply, global surplus forecasts and a stronger US dollar. Analysts expected that cocoa futures prices for subsequent trades will potentially weaken limited and have a chance to break the support level at around 1.820 dollars.

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The price of ICE Futures cocoa futures at the end of the day closed down. The decline in cocoa prices was triggered by the abundant supply of cocoa in Ivory Coast. Dealers also showed signs of considerable inventory at major Ivory Coast producers, coupled with sluggish demand from cocoa processor.

 

Based on monitoring at the end of trading early this morning, cocoa futures prices for March 2018 contract closed with a decline. Commodity prices closed down 24 dollars or about 1.24 percent at the position of 1.907 dollars per ton.

 

Therefore some analysts predict that the price of cocoa futures for further trade potentially will weaken further. For future trading, cocoa futures price at ICE Futures New York potentially will break the Support level at 1.850 dollar position.