Coffee Fundamental Analysis

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Arabica coffee prices on ICE rose in late trading Tuesday morning (11/10), triggered by strengthening of the Brazilian currency, Real. At the close of trading yesterday the Brazilian Real currency strengthened against the US dollar.  USDBRL ending down 0.47 percent at 3.2033.

 

The strengthening of the Brazilian Real is the bullish sentiment for commodity prices denominated in US dollar, making exports less attractive in the local currency. Brazil is the world's top producer of coffee. Arabica coffee futures prices at the close of trading early this morning has strengthened and rose by 4.85 dollars or equivalent to 3.28 percent and closed at 1.5285 dollars per pound.

 

Price of arabica coffee futures for subsequent trade potentially weak with the potential strengthening of US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York may test support at 1.5000 dollars and 1.4700 dollars. While the level of resistance that will be encountered if there was a strengthening is at 1.5600 dollars and 1.5900 dollars.

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Arabica coffee prices rose in late trading Thursday morning (13/10), triggered a fall in exports of coffee in Brazil and Guatemala. The Brazilian Exporters Association Cecafé has announced that due to ongoing strike the country's coffee exports from Santos was unable to cite customs export data for September, but it is thought that the green coffee exports for the month were 24.4% lower than the same month last year, with a total of 2.2 million bags.

The National Coffee Association of Guatemala has also reported that the country's coffee exports for the month of September some 48 116 bags or 26.52% lower than the same month last year, in a total of 133 349 bags. Arabica coffee futures prices at the close of trading early this morning has strengthened. 

Arabica coffee futures prices in December 2016 rose by 1.30 dollars or equivalent to 0.86 percent and closed at 1.5210 dollars per pound, this commodity potentially weak with the potential strengthening of US dollar. While support at 1.4900 dollars and 1.4600 dollars plus the resistance that will be encountered if there was a strengthening there is at 1.5500 dollars and 1.5800 dollars.

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The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE at the close of New York trading Friday morning finished up. Arabica coffee price increases supported the weakening of the US Dollar. The US dollar index fell 0.3 percent after Chinese trade data recorded a decline. 

The weakening US dollar makes the price of arabica coffee is sold in US dollars become cheaper, so the demand is increasing. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 closed up at 1.5270 dollar and it rose 0.60 cents, equivalent to 0.39 percent. Tonight will release Retail Sales Data Michigan Consumer Sentiment September and October, which indicated increased.

Analyst estimates that the price movements of Arabica coffee futures potentially weak with the strengthening US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York the potential to test support at 1.5000 dollars. While resistance that will be encountered if the price increase is at 1.5600 dollars and 1.5900 dollars.

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The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading early on Saturday (17/10) finished up. Arabica coffee price increases supported global coffee production deficit and International Coffee Organization (ICO) Friday raised its forecast for the 2015/16 crop, but still see the global deficit.

 

ICO estimated global deficit of 3.3. million bags for 2015/16, the second year in a row the deficit. Production in the world's No. 1 coffee producer Brazil is estimated to 48.4 million bags, down 5.4 percent from a year earlier as the drought in 2014 reduced.

 

Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 closed up at 1.5540 dollar positions, rose 2.70 cents, or equivalent to 1.77 percent. This week, coffee prices jumped 5 percent, helped by a variety of bullish sentiment is weakening US dollar, strengthening of the Brazilian Real and the decline in Brazilian exports. Tonight will be released the data, Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production is expected to increase in September. If realized can help lift US dollar.

 

Analyst estimates that the price movements of Arabica coffee futures at the next trade potentially weak with strengthening US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures has the potential to test support at 1.5250 dollars and 1.4950 dollars. While the resistance line they will face an increase in the price is at 1.5850 dollars and 1.6150 dollars.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange New York at the close of trading on Tuesday morning (18/10) finished up. Arabica coffee price increases supported the weakening of the US Dollar. Arabica coffee price increases supported the withdrawal of dollars from a seven-month peak reached earlier on Monday. The dollar index was down 0.1 percent at 97.956 after reaching 98.169.

 

The weakening US dollar makes the price of arabica coffee is sold in US dollars become cheaper, so the demand is increasing. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 closed up at 1.5710 dollar positions, rose 1.70 cents, or equivalent to 1.09 percent.

 

Analyst Vibiz Research Center estimates that the price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade potentially weak with the strengthening US dollar and has potential to test support level at 1.5400 dollars and 1.5100 dollars. While resistance level at 1.6000 dollars and 1.6300 dollars.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Wednesday morning (19/10) finished up. Arabica coffee price increases supported arabica coffee production deficit concerns.

 

International Coffee Organization (ICO) estimated supply deficit of 3.3 million bags for the 2015/16 crop year that just ended, thus becoming the second year in a row in which the supply has lagged behind demand. 

 

ICO also consider poor crop for Colombia, Indonesia, Brazil and Vietnam in the 2016/17 crop year due to unfavorable weather conditions. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 closed up at 1.5875 dollar positions, rose 1.65 cents, or equivalent to 1.05 percent.

 

Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade has potential to strengthening as US Dollar is quite weak. This commodity has potential to test support level at 1.5600 dollars and 1.5300 dollars.

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Arabica coffee prices fell in late trading Thursday morning (20/10), triggered profit-taking investors. On ICE Arabica coffee prices continued to strengthen this week. In this week's trading session, the price of Arabica coffee rose about 2 percent. This increase was utilized merchants to make profit taking.

 

Arabica coffee futures prices at the close of trading early this morning weakened. Arabica coffee futures prices in December 2016 fell by 0.90 dollars and closed at 1.5785 dollars per pound. Tonight will be released September Existing Home Sales data is indicated ride. If these results are realized, it will strengthen the US dollar.

 

Arabica coffee futures for subsequent trade potentially weak with the potential strengthening of US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE has potential to test support at 1.5500 dollars and 1.5200 dollars. While the resistance to be meet that will be encountered if there was a strengthening there is at 1.6100 dollars and 1.6300 dollars.

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Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Friday morning (21/10) ended weak against US Dollar. The weakening of arabica coffee prices depressed by strengthening of the US dollar. The US dollar index hit a seven-month high against a basket of currencies and a three-month peak against the euro after the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged.

 

The increase in the US dollar makes commodities traded in the currency is becoming relatively more expensive for foreign buyers that follow eroded demand weakened. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed down in December 2016 at 1.5590 dollars, down by -1.95 cents or equal to -1.24 percent.

 

Analyst estimates that the price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade will weaken with the potential strengthening of US dollar and it has potential to test support level at 1.5300 dollars and 1.5000 dollars.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Tuesday morning (25/10) finished up. Arabica coffee price increases supported arabica coffee production deficit forecasts.

 

Dealers said the estimated shortfall for arabica coffee help to increase the price. International Coffee Organization has raised its forecast for the 2015/16 crop, mostly reflecting higher production in Colombia, but still see a global deficit for this season.

 

Arabica coffee prices for the most-active contract closed up in December 2016 in the position of 1.5790 dollars, up by 1.80 cents, equivalent to 1.15 per 

 

Analyst estimates that the price movements of Arabica coffee futures at the next trade limited as the potential to strengthen of weakening US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to test the resistance level at 1.6100 dollar.

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Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Wednesday morning (26/10) finished up. Arabica coffee price increases triggered by the projected decline Exports of Brazil. Arabica coffee surged to its highest level since February 2015 after Brazil's largest manufacturers slashed export forecasts for 2016 amid growing domestic consumption and the effects of drought.

The Cooxupe institutions now see total coffee shipments of 4 million bags this year, the Commercial Director Lucio Dias said Tuesday. That's down from April forecasts of 4.5 million bags amid tight domestic supply. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 closed up at 1.6450 dollar positions, rose 6.60 cents, or equivalent to 4.18 percent.

Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade limited the potential to strengthen the weakening US dollar. Price has the potential to test the resistance level at 1.6750 dollar. While support level that will be tested if price fall down is at 1.5850 dollars.

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ICE arabica coffee prices fell in late trading Thursday morning (27/10), triggered by profit-taking of investors. Profit taking took place after ICE Arabica coffee prices jumped 4 percent on the previous trading session after China lowered export projections.

 

Arabica coffee futures prices at the close of trading early this morning weakened. Arabica coffee futures prices in December 2016 decreased by 0.80 dollars and closed at 1.6370 dollars per pound. Tonight will be released data Durable Goods Orders and Pending Home Sales: US September indicated increased. If realized, it will boost the US dollar.

 

Analyst estimates that the price of arabica coffee futures for further trade has potential with be weaker because of strengthening US dollar. Support level at 1.6100 dollar and 1.5800 dollar are the target. While resistance level to be touched if there was a strengthening is at 1.6700 dollars and 1.7000 dollars.

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Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading the weekend early Saturday (29/10) finished up. Arabica coffee price increases supported the weakening of the US Dollar. The weakening US dollar makes the price of arabica coffee is sold in US dollars become cheaper, so the demand is increasing.

 

Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 closed up at 1.6550 dollar positions, rose 0.70 cents, or equivalent to 0.42 percent. This increase continues to add expensive arabica coffee prices during the week, which jumped 6.02 percent. The surge was largely supported by the projected decline of exports Brazil which brings the price of sugar rose 4 percent. The increase was also supported by a decrease in production deficit.

 

Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade potentially weak with the strengthening US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York has potential to test support level at 1.6300 dollars and then next towards 1.6000 dollars.

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Arabica coffee futures on the commodity exchange ICE Futures New York at the close of trade Thursday early morning (03/11) ended up. Rising prices of arabica coffee supported a weakening of the U.S. Dollar. Dollar index slipping after U.S. Fed maintain interest rates unchanged. The weakening of the U.S. dollar makes the price of arabica coffee sold in US dollar currency becoming cheaper, so demand is rising.

 

Arabica coffee futures price for the most active contract in December 2016 closed up at position 1.6290 dollar, and now it seems the price rose by 1.45 cents or equivalent of 0.90 percent. The data will be released later this evening which is ISM Non Manufacturing PMI October indicated weakening. If unrealized will depress U.S. dollar.

 

Analyst estimated that the price movement of Arabica coffee futures on the ICE Futures New York on the next trade potentially rise with the weakening of the U.S. dollar. Arabica coffee potentially test resistance level at 1.6600 dollars and 1.6900 dollars. While the support level which will be tested if price rise are at 1.6000 dollars and 1.5700 dollars.

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Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Friday morning (04/11) finished up. Arabica coffee price increases supported the weakening of the US Dollar. The weakening US dollar makes the price of arabica coffee is sold in US dollars become cheaper, so the demand is increasing.

Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 closed up at 1.6565 dollar positions, rose 2.75 cents, or equivalent to 1.69 percent.
Tonight will be released the data Non-farm payrolls in October indicated increased, which indicated October Unemployment Rate decreased, which indicated the trade deficit narrowed. If realized, it will strengthen the US dollar.

Price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade potentially weak with the strengthening US dollar. it has the potential to test support between 1.6300 dollars and 1.6000 dollars. While the level of resistance that will be encountered if the price increase is between 1.6900 dollars and 1.7200 dollars.

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Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading the weekend early Saturday (05/11) ends soared. Arabica coffee price increases supported the weakening of the US Dollar. USD slipped on Friday with anxiety ahead of the US presidential election approaching, despite a steady US employment report which supports expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hike next month.

 

The weakening US dollar makes the price of arabica coffee is sold in US dollars become cheaper, so the demand is increasing. The price of Arabica Coffee futures for the most-active contract in December 2016 closed at 1.7135 dollar, rose about 3.44 percent. It has potential to test support level at 1.6800 dollars and 1.6500 dollars.

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Arabica coffee prices fell in late trading Wednesday morning, triggered from fears of looking at the results of US Presidential elections that have an impact to Coffee.If Donald Trump win the election, the coffee market speculators account for rising euro.

 

Europe is the largest consumer of coffee and a stronger euro is seen as strengthening demand for coffee. The same is not true in all commodity markets. Arabica coffee futures at the close of trading early this morning weakened. Arabica coffee futures prices in December 2016 dropped by 6.85 dollars, equivalent to 3.93 percent and closed at 1.6750 dollars per pound.

 

Analyst estimates that the price of arabica coffee futures for the next trade may rise if the US dollar weakens and if Donald Trump won the US Presidential election. The commodity has the potential to test resistance level at 1.7050 dollar and 1.7350 dollar.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Thursday morning (10/11) finished up. Arabica coffee price increase after the Republican candidate Donald Trump won the US Presidential election.

Sugar, cocoa and other commodities in soft commodities continue to trade on fundamentals Wednesday following the US presidential victory by Donald Trump that surprised most market. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 closed up at 1.7010 dollar, rose about 1.55 percent.

Analyst estimates that the price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade potentially weak with the strengthening US dollar. There is a potential to test support level at 1.6700 dollars and 1.6400 dollars.

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Arabica coffee futures on ICE tumbled in late trading Friday morning (11/11), after the contract reached above average technical, prompting speculators to take profits. Traders withdrew from the market a few days ago over concerns about the risks of the results of the US presidential election might bring to market. Coffee has become the new preferred bet between the managers of hedge funds and other money managers.

On Tuesday, the bearish bullish bets in proportion with the highest margin so far this year - at 56 863 contracts - and betting by speculators in the market are also at their highest this year, according to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Arabica coffee futures prices at the close of trading early this morning plummeted. This commodity dropped by 4.85 percent and closed at 1.6185 dollars per pound.

The price of arabica coffee futures for the next trade potentially weak if the US dollar rose. Arrabica coffee futures on ICE Futures has the potential to test support at 1.5900 dollars and 1.5600 dollars. While the level of resistance that will be encountered if there was a strengthening is at 1.6500 dollars and 1.6800 dollars.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange New York at the close of trading on Tuesday morning (15/11) finished up. Arabica coffee price increases triggered bargain hunting.

 

Bargain hunting occurs utilizing coffee prices slumped last week. In the weekly price of arabica coffee fell 6.9 percent, largely depressed market fears after Donald Trump was elected as the new President of the United States and profit-taking speculators.

 

Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed up in March 2017 in the position of 1.6545 dollars, a rise of 2.35 cents, equivalent to 1.44 per cent. Tonight will be released Data Retail Sales in October the US that indicated declining.

 

If realized, it will depress the US dollar. Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade limited the potential to strengthen the potential weakening of the US dollar. It has the potential to test the resistance level at 1.6850 dollar and next towards 1.7150 dollar.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Friday morning (17/11) ended weak. The weakening of arabica coffee prices again depressed the strengthening of the US dollar.

The US dollar on Thursday rose to a new high of 13.5 years against a basket of major currencies after the statement by Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a group of six currencies, was last up 0.46 percent at 100.87.

The increase in the US dollar makes commodities traded in the currency is becoming relatively more expensive for foreign buyers that follow eroded demand which weakened. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract month Marfet 2017 closed down towards 1.6295 dollars.

Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade will weaken with the potential strengthening of the US dollar also has potential to test the support level between 1.6000 dollars and 1.5700 dollars.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading the weekend early on Friday (17/11) ended weak. The weakening of arabica coffee prices again depressed by the strengthening of the US dollar.

The US dollar was on track for the best two weeks since 1988 against the yen and reached its highest since early 2003 against a basket of currencies, as Trump victory sparked talk of tax cuts and new investment in infrastructure to boost the US economy.

The increase in the US dollar makes commodities traded in the currency is becoming relatively more expensive for foreign buyers that follow eroded demand weakened. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed down at 1.6210 dollars.

Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade will weaken with the potential strengthening of the US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures has potential to test support at 1.5900 dollars and then towards 1.5600 dollars.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Thursday morning (23/11) ends slump. The weakening of arabica coffee prices triggered a decrease in Brazilian Reals.

In yesterday's trading, USDBRL rose 1.06 percent at 3.3891. Weak currencies in producing countries tend to make coffee prices remain low in the near future. When the Brazilian real weakened against the US dollar, prompting producers to sell to achieve higher returns for goods denominated in local currency.

Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed down in March 2017 at 1.5770 dollars, down by -4.15 cents or equal to -2.56 percent. The price on ICE Futures US in New York has potential to test support at 1.5500 dollars and 1.5200 dollars.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading the weekend early Saturday (26/11) ends slump. The weakening of arabica coffee prices triggered a decrease in Brazilian Reals. At the weekend trade, the currency pair USDBRL rose 0.95 percent at 3.4210. Weak currencies in producing countries tend to make coffee prices remain low in the near future.

When the Brazilian real weakened against the US dollar, prompting producers to sell to achieve higher returns for goods denominated in local currency. The price of arabica coffee futures for the most active contract closed down to 1.5540 dollars, down by 1.46 percent.

The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York the potential to test the level of support in the position of 1.5200 dollars and 1.4900 dollars. While the level of resistance that will be encountered if the price increase is in the position of 1.2800 dollars and 1.6100 dollars.

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Arabica coffee prices rose in late trading Tuesday morning (29/11), triggered the strengthening of the Brazilian currency, the Real. At the close of trading yesterday the Brazilian Real currency strengthened against the US dollar. Brazil's real gained 1.1% against the dollar in recent trading.

The strengthening of the Brazilian Real is the bullish sentiment for commodity prices denominated in US dollar, making exports less attractive in the local currency. Brazil is the world's top producer of coffee. Arabica coffee futures prices at the close of trading early this morning has strengthened. It rose by 1.25 dollars or equivalent to 0.80 percent and closed at 1.5665 dollars per pound.

Tonight will be the second estimation data released third-quarter US economic growth that indicated increases. If realized, it will strengthen the US dollar. Arabica coffee futures for subsequent trade potentially weak with the potential strengthening of US dollar. 

The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York the potential to test the level of support at 1.5300 dollars and 1.5000 dollars. While the level of resistance that will be encountered if there was a strengthening is between 1.5900 dollars and 1.6200 dollars.

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ICE arabica coffee prices fell in late trading Wednesday morning (30/11), was triggered by surplus forecast coffee production. Coffee futures ended lower Tuesday after a major coffee trading company estimates that the coffee market this year will end up in surplus. Marex, estimates that the demand for robusta will exceed new supply of 5.6 million bags, with arabica coffee fill the gap.

Arabica coffee futures prices at the close of trading early this morning weakened. Arabica coffee futures prices in March 2017 fell by 3.60 dollars, equivalent to 2.30 percent and closed at 1.5305 dollars per pound.Tonight will be released the data Adp US Employment Change November indicated increases. If realized, it will strengthen the US dollar.

Price of arabica coffee futures for subsequent trade potentially weak by the potential strengthening of the US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York the potential to test support at 1.5000 dollars and 1.4700 dollars.