Coffee Fundamental Analysis

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ICE arabica coffee prices observed to be flat in late trade weekend early Saturday (03/09), trigger pull of sentiment disorders coffee plants in Brazil with the strengthening of the US dollar after the release of US NFP data. Rainfall in Brazil gives great concern that the rain may cause early flower next year's harvest which has the potential for adverse outcomes.

There is also potential tightening next year because of a decline in crop biennial cycle Brazil. While on weekends the US dollar strengthened ignore weak reading on US Non-Farm Payrolls. Arabica coffee futures prices at the close of trading early on Saturday flats. Arabica coffee futures prices in December 2016 closed at 1.5140 dollars per pound.

Weekly coffee prices jumped 4.52 percent, largely triggered fears that the rain may cause early flower next year's harvest which has the potential for adverse outcomes. It estimated that the price of arabica coffee futures for the next trade is projected to rise to a potential weakening of the US dollar after weak US NFP data lowered expectations of US rate hike this month.

The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to test the resistance level at 1.5400 dollar and then to 1.5700 dollar. While the level of support that will be encountered if there is a decline is at 1.4800 dollars and then heading towards 1.4500 dollars.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Wednesday morning (07/09) observed to rise up. Arabica coffee price increases triggered by the weakening of the US Dollar and concerns the production of arabica coffee plants.

 

The weakening US dollar makes the price of arabica coffee is sold in US dollars become cheaper, so the demand is increasing. The rise in arabica coffee market is also driven in part by concerns that the initial interest could curb production in Brazil next year. Widespread rain in the southern region of Brazil's major arabica trigger early blooming flowers, which will form the first seeds are ripe for harvest in 2017.

 

Traders said this raises concerns about the Brazilian 2017-18 crop because of some interest may be lost if the buds opened too early and consequently reduce the production of coffee beans. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 closed up at 1.5375 dollar positions, rose 2.35 cents, or equivalent to 1.55 percent.

 

The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to test the resistance level at 1.5700 dollar. While the support levelwhich will be encountered if the decline in prices is at 1.5100 dollars and then 1.4800 dollars.

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ICE arabica coffee prices rose in late trading Thursday morning (08/09), triggered by the projected decline of coffee production plant in Brazil. Brazil's national statistics institute IBGE lowered its forecast for 2016/17 arabica coffee plants by 1.5 percent from August, to 39.8 million bags on concerns about dry weather.

 

James Cordier, founder of OptionSellers.com based in Tampa, Florida said the price increase affected arabica arabica abundant supplies in consumer countries. Arabica coffee futures prices at the close of trading early this morning has strengthened. Arabica coffee futures prices in December 2016 rose by 1.35 dollars and closed at 1.5510 dollars per pound.

 

Analyst estimates Arabica coffee futures price for the next trade is projected to rise because of potential weakening US dollar by fading expectations of US rate hike. The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to test the resistance level at 1.5800 dollar. While the level of support that will be encountered if there is a weakening is at 1.5200 dollars

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Friday morning (09/09) negative ends. The weakening of arabica coffee prices depressed the strengthening of the US dollar. The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, was up 0.1 percent at 95.06.

 

Recovery of the dollar after the European Central Bank maintained its economic stimulus program. The increase in the US dollar makes commodities traded in the currency is becoming relatively more expensive for foreign buyers that follow eroded demand weakened, thus Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 closed retreat at 1.5490 dollars, down by -0.20 cents or equal to -0.13 percent.

 

Analyst estimates that the price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade will weaken with the potential strengthening of US dollar after the ECB decision. The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York the potential to test support at 1.5200 dollars and 1.4900 dollars. While the level of resistance that will be encountered if the price is rising is at 1.6100 dollars.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading the weekend early Saturday (10/09) negative ends. The weakening of arabica coffee prices depressed the strengthening of the US dollar.The US dollar's rebound came after Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said the US central bank is increasingly at risk if we wait much longer to raise interest rates, adding to pressure on coffee prices.

The increase in the US dollar makes commodities traded in the currency is becoming relatively more expensive for foreign buyers that follow eroded demand weakened. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed down in December 2016 in the position of 1.5115 dollars, down by -3.75 cents or equal to -2.42 percent. The resulting decline in this weekend negate the results of the weekly, edged down -0.17 percent.

Analyst estimates that the price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade will weaken with the potential strengthening of US dollar. It may test support at 1.4800 dollars and 1.4300 dollars. While the level of resistance that will be encountered if price decline is at 1.5400 dollars and 1.5700 dollars.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange New York at the close of trading on Tuesday morning (13/09) ended down. Arabica coffee price decline triggered by the recovery of weather restore coffee production.

 

Traders stated that the weather conditions are generally normal and non-threatening for the global coffee supply long term. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed down in December 2016 at 1.5090 dollars, down by -0.25 cents or equal to -0.17 percent.

 

Analyst estimated that the price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade is projected to rise to a potential weakening of US dollar after the waning of US interest rate hikes. This commodity has potential to test the resistance level at 1.5400 dollar. While the level of support that will be encountered if the decline happend at 1.4800 dollars.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Wednesday morning (14/09) ended down. The decline in arabica coffee prices triggered an increase in exports of Brazilian coffee. Arabica coffee futures extended losses ahead of Brazilian coffee export data that showed 37% increase month-over-month in August to 2.7 million 132-pound bags.

 

Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed down in December 2016 in the position of 1.4840 dollars, down by -2.50 cents or equal to -1.66 percent. Analyst estimates that the price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade will have a potential to have weakening against US dollar after dovish signal waning US interest rates.

 

The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York the potential to test support at 1.4500 dollars. While the resistance at 1.5100 dollars and 1.5400 dollars.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Thursday morning (15/09) finished up. Arabica coffee price increases supported by the weakening of US dollar and a decrease in inventories.

Expectations the US Federal Reserve will raise rates at its policy meeting next week has subsided, putting pressure on the US currency, so the overnight US dollar index fell 0.23 percent against a basket of currencies. The weakening US dollar makes the price of arabica coffee is sold in US dollars become cheaper, so the demand is increasing.

Arabica coffee price increases also supported the declining supplies of arabica coffee. "Prices continue to seek support from lower inventory," said Societe Generale in a report. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 rose 0.50 cents, or equivalent to 0.34 percent.

Tonight will be released Data Retail Sales and Industrial Production in August that indicated weaker. If realized, it will weaken the US dollar. It seems the price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade is projected to rise to a potential weakening of the US dollar after the waning of US interest rate hikes.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Friday morning (15/09) ended unchanged. Flat movement arabica coffee prices triggered by investor caution watch on US rate hike that would affect the movement of the US dollar.

The lack of movement in the dollar after soft economic data in the United States: where initial jobless claims came at 260,000 for the week ending Sept. 10 were below expectations. The producer price index for August unchanged and retail sales fell more than expected.

Disappointing US data releases could create an opportunity for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its policy meeting in September is much more difficult. Fed officials previously have said their decisions are data-dependent.

Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 closed flat at the previous close at 1.4890 dollar positions. Analyst estimates that the price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade potential with the potential of strengthening by the weakening condition of US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures may test the support level at 1.4600 dollar. If the price rises will break the resistance level at 1.5200 dollar.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading early on Saturday (17/09) ends negatively. The weakening of arabica coffee prices depressed the strengthening of US dollar. The US dollar index rose 0.8 percent against a basket of major currencies sete; ah US inflation rose in August.

Although the increase is relatively narrow, but it will give an additional impetus for the rise in US interest rates higher than the FOMC members. The increase in the US dollar makes commodities traded in the currency is becoming relatively more expensive for foreign buyers that follow eroded demand weakened.

Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 closed retreat to 1.4840 dollars, down by -0.50 cents or equal to -0.34 percent. A weekly basis ICE arabica coffee prices slumped -1.82 percent, largely triggered an increase in exports and a recovery in Brazil weather.

Coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade will weaken with the potential strengthening of US dollar after US rising inflation in August. The price of Arabica coffee futures has potential to test support level at 1.4500 dollars and 1.4200 dollars. While the level of resistance that will be encountered if the price rose is between 1.5100 dollars and 1.5400 dollars.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange New York at the close of trading on Tuesday morning (9/20) finished up. Arabica coffee price increases supported the weakening of the US Dollar where The US dollar index fell 0.20 percent after expectations that the Bank of Japan action this week will not weaken the yen and the Federal Reserve will hold US interest rate hikes.

The weakening US dollar makes the price of arabica coffee is sold in US dollars become cheaper, so the demand is increasing, also Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 closed up at 1.5280 dollar around rose 4.40 cents, or equivalent to 2.96 percent.

It seems that price movements of Arabica coffee futures is projected to rise to a potential weakening of US dollar after the waning of US interest rate hikes. The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to test the resistance level at 1.5600 dollar and support level at 1.5000 dollars.

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Arabica coffee prices in late trading Wednesday morning (21/09), triggered the strengthening of the Brazilian currency, Real. At the close of trading yesterday the Brazilian Real currency strengthened against US dollar. USDBRL rate in the ending observed fall down -0.44 percent at 3.2565.

 

The strengthening of the Brazilian Real is the bullish sentiment for commodity prices denominated in US dollar, making exports less attractive in the local currency. Brazil is the world's top producer of coffee. Arabica coffee futures prices at the close of trading early this morning has strengthened. It rose by 4.00 dollars or equivalent to 2.62 percent and closed at 1.5680 dollars per pound.

 

The cofee futures estimates that the price for the next trade is projected to rise to a potential weakening US dollar by fading expectations of US rate hike. Arabica coffee futures has the potential to test resistance level at 1.6000 dollar. While support which will be encountered is a 1.5400 dollars if weakening movement found.

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Arabica coffee futures price on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Thursday morning (22/09) ended down. The decline in arabica coffee prices was triggered by an increase in production. Arabica coffee declined after news Conab, with the agency revised up its estimate for production of 41.29 million bags of arabica be a projection of 40.3 million in May, after better weather in the main growing areas and the increase in area planted varieties contributes to the larger plants.

Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed down in December 2016 in the position of 1.5655 dollars, down by -0.25 cents or equal to -0.16 percent. Arabica coffee futures is projected to rise to a potential dollar weakness after the Fed's decision to keep interest rates the US. 

The price of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York has the potential to test the resistance level at 1.6000 dollar and next to around 1.6300 dollar. While the level of support that will be encountered if the decline in prices is at 1.5400 dollars and 1.5100 dollars.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Friday morning (18/08) ended down. The weakening of arabica coffee prices triggered a decrease in Brazilian Reals.

In yesterday's trading, USDBRL rose 0.37 percent at 3.2186. Weak currencies in producing countries tend to make coffee prices remain low in the near future. When the Brazilian real weakened against the US dollar, prompting producers to sell to achieve higher returns for goods denominated in local currency.

Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed down in December 2016 in the position of 1.5525 dollars, down by -1.30 cents or equal to -0.83 percent. Price movements of Arabica coffee futures potentially strengthened by the weakening of US dollar after the Fed's decision to hold interest rates the US. Price has the potential to test the resistance level at 1.5800 and the support level at 1.4900 dollars.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading the weekend early Saturday (24.09) finished down. The decline in arabica coffee prices triggered an increase in production. 

 

In Brazil, the top coffee producer, Volcafe said producer and co-operatives have continued to offer large volumes of land for low-quality arabica beans. This week, Conab, Brazil's state agency estimates, revised estimates for the Arabica coffee plant is nearing completion be 41.29 million bags, up from 40.3 million forecast in May, due to better weather in the main growing areas and increased in areas that contribute to plants greater than.

 

Still overall, Brazilian farmers are expected to grow 49.6 million bags of coffee in 2016 as more sour varieties of beans. The estimate fell short of what was expected by many market participants. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed down in December 2016 in the position of 1.5140 dollars, down by -3.85 cents, or -2.5 percent.

 

Analyst estimates that the price movements of Arabica coffee futures at the next trade is projected to rise with a potential weakening of US dollar and to test the resistance level at 1.5400 dollar. While the level of support that will be encountered if the decline is at 1.4800 dollars and 1.4500 dollars.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange New York at the close of trading on Tuesday morning (27/09) observed rose in the end of trading. Arabica coffee price increases supported by dry weather increase production. Arabica coffee futures price increases, according to the dealers affected dry weather in Brazil has helped to support the market.

 

Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 closed up at 1.5355 dollar positions, rose 2.15 cents, or equivalent to 1.42 percent. Tonight will be released CB Consumer Confidence September indicated weakened. If realized, it will weaken the US dollar.

 

Arabica coffee futures estimated at the next trade is projected to rise with the potential weakening of USD Dollar and has the potential to test the resistance level at 1.5650 dollar. While the level of support that will be encountered if the price decline is at 1.5050 dollars.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures New York exchange at the closing on Wednesday morning (28/09) finished up. Arabica coffee price increases supported the projected decline of coffee production. Brazilian crop supply agency Conab cut its forecast for 2016 production of coffee of the country after the loss of a drought in the area robusta which hinder gains in arabica area.

Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 closed up at 1.5370 dollar positions, rose 0.15 cents, or equivalent to 0.10 percent.Tonight will be released August Durable Goods Orders data is indicated weakened. If realized, it will weaken the US dollar.

The price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade is projected to rise with a potential weakening of US dollar and actually has the potential to test the resistance level at 1.6000 dollar. While the level of support that will be encountered if the decline is at 1.4800 dollars

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Thursday morning (29/09) ended down. The weakening of arabica coffee prices triggered profit taking. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed down in December 2016 in the position of 1.5310 dollars, down by -0.60 cents or equal to -0.39 percent.

 

Tonight will US growth data released second quarter-final, which indicated rising. If realized, it will strengthen the US dollar. Futures price of Arabica cofee on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade will weaken the strengthening of the US Dollar and has the potential to test support level at 1.5000 dollars and 1.4700 dollars. While the level of resistance that will be encountered if the price increase is at 1.5600 dollars and 1.5900 dollars.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Friday morning (30/09) ended down. The weakening of arabica coffee prices triggered a decrease in Brazilian Reals. In yesterday's trading, the currency pair USDBRL rose 1.31 percent at 3.2585. TWeak currencies in producing countries tend to make coffee prices remain low in the near future.

When the Brazilian real weakened against the US dollar, prompting producers to sell to achieve higher returns for goods denominated in local currency. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed down in December 2016 towards 1.5015 dollars, down by 2.95 cents or equal to 1.93 percent. Tonight will be released the Personal Income and Personal Spending which indicated weakened. If realized, it will weaken US dollar.

Analyst estimates that the price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures at the next trade potentially strengthened by the weakening US dollar and before the other has the potential to test resistance level at 1.5300 dollar. While the level of support that will be encountered if the decline in prices is at 1.4700 dollars and 1.4400 dollars.

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The price of Arabica Cofee futures on ICE futures New York on the closing of trading last week ended up with the price rise to higher level. This bullish sentiment of Arabic Coffee futures supported by the weakening of US Dollar. US Dollar index still weakening after US consument spending surprisingly fall around 0.1 percent on August, after take the inflation into the account fir the first itme in 7 months, while inflation show the signal for speedy recovery.

The weakening of US Dollar makes Arabica Coffee price which sold in USD become cheaper and increase the demand. Coffee futures pprie for the most active contract which is December 2016 closed with bullish sentiment to around 1.5155 dollars, rise around 1.40 cent or equal to 0.93 percents. In weekly terms, Coffee rise slightly around 0.1 percent with bearish sentiment towards Real and profit taking action. In monthly Coffee futures price rose significantly around 3.77%, mostly supported by US Dollar weakening and the strengthening of Real also Production increase.

Analyst estimate that the rpice of Arabic Coffee futures on ICE futures will have potential to fall down with the strengthening potential of US Dollar. Arabica Coffee futures price has potential to test support at 1,4850 dollar and 1,4550 dollar. While support level which must be face if there is bearish sentiment support level which must be faced at 1,5450 dollar.

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Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange New York at the close of trading on Tuesday morning (04/10) ends plummeted. The weakening of arabica coffee prices depressed by strengthening of US dollar. The increase in the US dollar makes commodities traded in the currency is becoming relatively more expensive for foreign buyers that follow eroded demand weakened.

Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 closed retreat to around 1.4755 dollars, down by 4.00 cents or equal to 2.64 percent. Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York at the next trade will weaken with the potential strengthening of the US dollar.

The price of Arabica coffee futures has the potential to test support at 1.4450 dollars and 1.4150 dollars. While the level of resistance that will be encountered if the decline in prices is at 1.5050 dollars and 1.5350 dollars.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures at New York trading Wednesday morning (05/10) closed with the price fall deeper. The weakening of arabica coffee prices depressed by the strengthening of the US dollar. The US dollar broadly strengthened against Pound, Euro and the four other major currencies. Up to 13-day highs helped by an increase in growth in the US manufacturing sector prompted investors to raise their bets on a rate hike at the end of the year.

The increase in the US dollar makes commodities traded in the currency is becoming relatively more expensive for foreign buyers that follow eroded demand weakened. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed down in December 2016 at 1.4745 dollars, down by -0.10 cents, equivalent to 0.07 per cent.

Analyst estimates that the price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US in New York will weaken with the potential strengthening of the US dollar. The potential to test support at 1.4450 dollars and 1.4150 dollars. While the resistance that will be encountered if the decline in prices is at 1.5050 dollars and 1.5350 dollars.

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Arabica Coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Thursday morning (06/10) finished up. Arabica coffee price increases supported Colombian coffee production decline. Coffee price rises triggered a 2 percent drop in the production of Colombia in September.

Production in Colombia, reaching the last few months by the truckers strike and damage caused by the El Nino droughts. Coffee farmers in the country are now looking forward to the weather phenomenon La Nina may provide the potential for heavy rain. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract closed up at 1.4820 dollar rose 0.75 cents, or equivalent to 0.51 percent.

Analyst estimates price movements of Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures at the next trade is projected to rise by the weakening of US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures has the potential to test the resistance level at 1.5100 dollar. While the level of support that will be encountered if the decline in prices is at 1.4500 dollars and 1.4200 dollars.

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading Friday morning (07/10) ended weak. The weakening of arabica coffee prices depressed by the strengthening of US dollar.

The US dollar rose to its highest in more than two months against a basket of currencies after a drop in US jobless claims reinforced the view that the Fed will raise interest rates later this year. The increase of US dollar makes commodities traded in the currency is becoming relatively more expensive for foreign buyers that follow eroded demand weakened.

Arabica coffee futures prices for the most-active contract closed down in December 2016 in the position of 1.4640 dollars, down by -1.80 cents or equal to -1.21 percent and tonight will be released the data of US Non Farm Payrolls September indicated increased. If realized, it will strengthen US dollar.

Arabica coffee futures price at the next trade will weaken with the potential strengthening of US dollar. The price of Arabica coffee futures has the potential to test support at 1.4350 dollars and 1.4050 dollars. While the resistance that will be encountered if the price rise is at 1.4950 dollars and 1.5250 dollars

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The price of arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures exchange at the close of New York trading the weekend early Saturday (10/10) finished up. Arabica coffee price increases supported the weakening of the US Dollar.

 

The weakening US dollar makes the price of arabica coffee is sold in US dollars become cheaper, so the demand is increasing. Arabica coffee futures prices for the most active contract in December 2016 closed up at 1.4800 dollar positions, rose 1.60 cents, or equivalent to 1.09 percent. But on a weekly basis ICE arabica coffee prices slumped 2.34 percent, mostly pressured by strengthening US dollar.

 

Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures at the next trade is projected to rise after the waning of US interest rate hikes. Arabica coffee futures on ICE Futures US has the potential to test resistance level at 1.5100 dollar. While support level that will be encountered if the decline in prices is at 1.4500 dollars and 1.4200 dollars.