Coal Fundamental Analysis

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International spot prices for coking coal has fallen sharply after China loosened restrictions on the production of materials used to make steel. Coking coal from Australia high grade heavy trading below $ 250 per ton in the spot market, down about 20% from a five-year high reached in November.

Chinese production is recovering after the government lowered the limit that was introduced in the spring on the number of days that the mine can operate. Chinese imports of coking coal decreased by 8% in November from the previous month, with a further decline expected in December. Also, more buyers to switch from Australia to Mongolia for coal spot prices higher.

As market conditions showed further decline in prices, the steel mill in Southeast Asia and elsewhere have held back purchases. Spot prices for coking coal jumped from about $ 80 per ton at the beginning of the year to more than $ 300 in November as traders anticipate price increases driven inventory. By the same token, sales tend to drive more sales as buyers forecast a decline in prices.

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In late trading the end of 2016 on Saturday morning (31/12), Rotterdam coal price closed up triggered by the weakening US dollar. The US Dollar Index observed to fell -0.46 percent at the end of 2016 depressed profit taking. The weakening US dollar makes the price of coal sold rotterdam denominated in dollars become cheaper, so the demand is increasing.

Rotterdam coal price futures for the most active contract is a contract in January 2017 ended up at 86.45 dollars per ton. The commodity price increased by 0.65 dollars or equivalent to 0.76 percent compared to the previous closing.

Many analysts estimated that fundamentally coal futures price movements Rotterdam at the next trade potentially weak especially when US dollar strengthened realized. The price of coal futures potentially test support level at 86.00 dollars and 85.50 dollars.

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At the end of trading yesterday , Rotterdam coal price rises pushed higher crude oil prices. Crude oil prices rebounded in late trading on Thursday morning (05/01), supported investor optimism for OPEC producers will follow the planned production cuts begin this month.

At the end of the trading price of coal Rotterdam futures contract for January 2017 at around 84.20 dollars per ton. Commodity prices gained 1.70 dollars or equivalent to 2.06 percent compared to the previous closing. Tonight will be released weekly US crude inventories by the EIA which indicated a decline. If these results are realized, it will lift the price of crude oil.

Analysts estimated that Coal futures price on Rotterdam Bourse at the next trading session is projected to rise with the increase in Crude Oil Price. The price of coal futures could potentially test the resistance level at 84.70 dollars and next at around 85.20 dollars.

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At the end of trading Friday morning (06/01), Rotterdam coal price rises pushed higher crude oil prices. Crude oil prices rose in late trade on Friday morning (06/01), lifted by the action of Saudi Arabia, which has cut production to meet the agreement of OPEC and Non OPEC producers.

At the end of the trading Rotterdam's coal futures contract price in February 2017 traded at 79.30 dollars per ton. It seems that commodity prices gained 1.20 dollars or equivalent to 1.54 percent compared to the previous closing.

Analysts predicted that Coal price for the next session has bigger chance to rise by US Dollar weakness. The price of coal futures could potentially test the resistance level at 79.80 dollars and if break it once again will rise towards the next resistance level at 80.30 dollars.

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In late trading seems like Rotterdam coal prices ended down. Coal prices have eroded by the strengthening US dollar. The increase of US dollar makes the price of Rotterdam coal to be expensive so the demand is getting stronger.

Rotterdam coal price futures for the most active contract is a contract in March 2017 slump to around 73.00 dollars per ton. This commodity prices decreased by 0.45 dollars, equivalent to 0.60 percent compared to the previous closing.

Analysts based on that data estimated that Rotterdam coal price for the next session may drop as US Dollar keep strengthening its position. The price of coal futures potentially test support level at 72.50 dollars and if able to break that support may fall deeper towards next support at 72.00 dollars.

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At the end of trading Wednesday morning (11/01), Rotterdam coal price rises triggered by the decline in coal production in 2016. The US Energy Information Administration data showed US coal production fell 17 percent from 2015 to 743 million tons. That's the lowest production level since 1978 and the continued decline of eight years from the peak of coal production in 2008.

At the end of the trading price of coal Rotterdam futures contract in February 2017 in the position of 80.65 dollars per ton. Commodity prices strengthened by 2.50 dollars or equivalent to 3.20 percent compared to the previous closing.

Analysts estimated that Coal price for the next trading session potentially able to weak with the declining crude oil price. The price of coal futures could potentially test the level of support at 80.15 dollars and next towards 79.65 dollars.

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At the end of trading on Thursday morning (12/01), Rotterdam coal price rises pushed higher crude oil prices. Crude oil prices rose highest in more than a month at the end of trading on Thursday morning (12/01), driven dollar weakness after the news conference by US President-elect Donald Trump and on news that Saudi Arabia has cut exports to Asia.

At the end of the trading price of coal Rotterdam futures contract in February 2017 traded at 83.25 dollars per ton. The commodity price gained 2,60 dollars or equivalent to 3.22 percent compared to the previous closing. Tonight will be released the data indicated US jobless claims increased. If these results are realized the potential of USD pressed.

Analysts estimated that Coal futures for the next session projected to rise considering that US Dollar is keep weakening than before.The price of coal futures could potentially test the resistance level at 83.75 dollars and if break it will rise even up to the next resistance at 84.25 dollars.

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In late trading Friday morning (13/01), Rotterdam coal price rises pushed higher crude oil prices. Crude oil prices rose for a second day at the end of trade on Friday morning (13/01), supported by reports that OPEC members began cutting production and forecast strong demand growth in China.

 

At the end of the trading price of coal Rotterdam futures contract on February 2017 ended at 85.30 dollars per ton. Commodity prices strengthened by 2.05 dollars or equivalent to 2.46 percent compared to the previous closing.

 

Many analysts estimated that Coal futures price for the next trading session potentially weak with the strengthening US dollar. The price of coal futures could potentially test support level at 84.80 dollars and 84.30 dollars.

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In late trading the weekend early Saturday (16/01), Rotterdam Coal price ended weake because depressed by crude oil prices which is declining. Crude oil prices slumped on late trading and recorded its first weekly loss in five weeks triggered doubts on the implementation of OPEC production cuts.

With the weakening of crude oil prices, the price of coal Rotterdam most active futures contract which is a contract in February 2017 dropped towards 84.90 dollars per ton. Commodity prices decreased by 0.40 dollars, equivalent to 0.47 percent compared to the previous closing.

Analysts estimated that Coal futures price for the next session potentially have chance to weakening further with the strengthening US Dollar. The price of coal futures potentially test support level at 84.40 dollars and even to the next support at 83.90 dollars.

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In late trading Friday morning (27/01), Rotterdam coal prices ended down. Coal prices have slumped hampered by the strengthening US dollar. The US dollar rebounded from a seven-week low optimism influences the economic and earnings outlook for US companies to make the price rise in the US dollar denominated coal Rotterdam dollars to expensive so the demand is getting stronger.

Rotterdam coal price futures for the most active contract is a contract in March 2017 falling down deeper at around 79.00 dollars per ton. Commodity prices decreased by 1.85 dollars, equivalent to 2.29 percent compared to the previous closing.

Analysts estimated that Coal futures for the next session has potential to rise higher with the weakening US dollar. The price of coal futures could potentially test the resistance level at 79.50 dollars and next at around 80.00 dollars.

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In late trading Friday morning (10/02), Rotterdam coal prices ended down. Coal prices have slumped and hampered by the strengthening US dollar. This US dollar jumped more than 1 percent against the yen and rose broadly on Thursday after comments from President Donald Trump that he would release tax reform plan in the next few weeks.

The increase of US dollar makes coal Rotterdam price to be expensive so the demand is getting stronger. Rotterdam coal price futures for the most active contract is a contract in March 2017 slump towards 78.70 dollars per ton. It decreased by 0.88 percent compared to the previous closing.

Analysts estimated that Coal price movement for the next session will strengthen further but limited by the weaker US Dollar. The price of coal futures could potentially test the resistance level at 79.20 dollars and 79.70 dollars.

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In late trading the weekend early Saturday (11/02), Rotterdam coal prices ended down. Coal prices have slumped hampered by the strengthening US dollar. The dollar rose against the Japanese yen after the meeting Trump-Abe went smoothly and tax reform plan that will launch the US president Donald Trump

 

The increase in the US dollar makes the price of US dollar denominated coal Rotterdam to be expensive so the demand is getting stronger. Rotterdam coal price futures for the most active contract slumped to 77.00 dollars per ton. It decreased by 2.16 percent compared to the previous closing.

 

Analysts estimated that Coal for the next session on Rotterdam exchange has potential to strengthening itsef further but limited by the weaker US dollar. The price of coal futures could potentially test the resistance level at 77.50 dollars and next resistance at 78.00 dollars.

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At the end of trading on Tuesday morning (14/02), Rotterdam ended weaker coal prices depressed by crude oil prices declining. With the weakening of crude oil prices, the price of coal Rotterdam most active futures contract is a contract in March 2017 slumped towards 74.60 dollars per ton. 

Commodity prices decreased by -2.40 dollars, equivalent to -3.12 percent compared to the previous closing. Tonight will be observed speech the Fed chairman Janet Yellen is expected to provide a positive sentiment for the US economy, which will be able to strengthen the US dollar.

Analysts estimated that Coal futures for the next session may fall down because of the strengthening US dollar after Yellen's speech tonight. The price of coal futures could potentially test the resistance level at 74.10 dollars and next at 73.60 dollars.

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At the end of trading on Wednesday morning (15/02), Rotterdam coal price rises pushed higher crude oil prices. Crude oil prices rose in late trading supported by efforts led OPEC to cut its global production, but profits decreased due to concerns about rising US shale oil supplies and the strengthening US dollar.

At the end of the trading price of coal Rotterdam futures contract for March 2017 in the position of 74.90 dollars per ton. Commodity prices gained about 0.30 dollars or equivalent to 0.40 percent compared to the previous closing.

Tonight will be released weekly crude oil inventory data that indicated a decline in Oil production, and a decline in gasoline production. If realized, it will strengthen the price of crude oil.

Analysts estimated it seems that that The coal rotterdam movement fundamentally for the next session may have the chance to rise higher if crude oil prices increase to be realized. The price of coal futures could potentially test the resistance level at 75.40 dollar.

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In late trading Friday morning (17/02), the price of coal closed up triggered by the weakening US dollar. The US dollar fell to its lowest in five days by going to the market doubts the certainty of a rate hike planned US Fed three times in 2017.

The weakening US dollar makes the price of coal sold cheaper, so the demand is increasing. Coal price for the most active contract is a contract in March 2017 ended up at 77.10 dollars per ton. Commodity prices increased by 1.05 percent compared to the previous closing.

Analysts predicted that the price movement of coal futures for next session potentially weak with the strengthening US dollar triggered by bargain hunting. The price of coal futures potentially test support level at 76.60 dollars.

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At the end of trading on Thursday morning (23/02), Coal prices depressed and ended weaker because crude oil prices declining. With the weakening of crude oil prices, the price of coal Rotterdam most active futures contract is a contract in April 2017 slump towards 76.90 dollars per ton. Commodity prices decreased by 0.58 percent

Tonight will be released weekly crude inventory data by the US EIA, which is indicated to decrease. If realized decreases, will strengthen the price of crude oil and make the price of Coal futures weakening further.

Analysts estimated that coal futures price movements Rotterdam at the next trade is projected to rise with the increase of crude oil prices. The price of coal futures could potentially test the resistance level at 77.40 dollars and 77.90 dollars.

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In late trading early Saturday (25/02), Coal futures ended weaker and depressed because crude oil prices declining. Crude oil prices fell in late trading weekend early Saturday (25/02) after suppressed by fears of rising US supplies and traders began pulling out barrels of crude oil from storage.

With the weakening of crude oil prices, the price of coal Rotterdam most active futures contract is a contract in March 2017 seems fall down towards the support level at 79.85 dollars per ton.

Analysts estimated that coal futures price movements for next session will potentially weak considering if the US dollar strengthening occurs. The price of coal futures potentially test support level at 79.35 dollars and next support at 78.85 dollars.

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At the end of trading on Tuesday morning (28/02), Coal prices triggered by the declining demand for coal in China. Preliminary data released by the National Statistical Bureau show that coal consumption fell 4.7 percent. Biro said the share of coal in total energy consumption mix of China fell to 62 percent in 2016 from 64 percent the previous year.

 

China is the world's largest consumer of coal, consumption levels have declined as economic growth slowed to its lowest level since 1990. The country also aims to reduce the use of coal in favor of natural gas and renewable energy.

 

Rotterdam coal price futures for the most active contract is a contract in March 2017 slump towards 78.65 dollars per ton. Commodity prices decreased by 1.50 percent compared to the previous closing.

 

So it seems that Coal futures price on the next trade is projected to rise considering that US dollar weakness also plays some part. The price of coal futures could potentially test the resistance level at 79.15 dollars and  79.65 dollars.

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In late trading Friday morning (03/03), Rotterdam ended weaker coal prices depressed by crude oil prices which was declining. With the weakening of crude oil prices, the price of coal Rotterdam most active futures contract is a contract in April 2017 slumped towards 75.00 dollars per ton.

 

Commodity prices decreased by 1.12 percent compared to the previous closing. Tonight will be observed speech the Fed chairman Janet Yellen and other Fed officials are expected to provide strengthening expectations of rising US interest rates, which will be able to strengthen the US dollar.

 

Analysts estimated that Coal futures for the next session may fall down by the strengthening US dollar. The price of coal futures potentially test support level at 74.50 dollar and if able to break it may rise further.

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At the end of trading on Tuesday morning (07/03), Coal prices depressed by the decline of crude oil prices. Crude oil prices moved sideways, and US crude turned negative at the end of trading on Tuesday morning (07/03) after the International Energy Agency estimates that oil shale increased growth potential and a decrease in demand for refined products in Europe.

 

With the weakening of crude oil prices, the price of Coal's most active futures contract is a contract in April 2017 which dropped towards 73.60 dollars per ton. Commodity prices decreased by 0.07 per cent and may even fall further after this.

 

Analysts estimated that Coal for the next session may rise if US economic data shows a bearish sentiment. The price of coal futures could potentially test the resistance level at 74.10 dollars up towards 74.60 dollars.

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At the end of the weekend trading on late Saturday (20/05), Rotterdam coal prices rose caused by rising crude oil prices. Crude oil rose at the end of late Saturday morning, postedg a second-week rise on expectations of OPEC and other producer agreements next week to extend crude output cuts.

 

At the end of trading the Rotterdam coal price futures contract for July 2017 was at 75.00 dollars per tonne position. The price of the commodity has strengthened by 0.80 dollars or equal to 1.08 percent compared to the previous closing trade position.

 

For this week, Coal prices jumped 5.71 percent, up this week largely supported by rising crude oil and a weaker US dollar. Analysts estimated that the price movement of Coal futures in future trade may potentially rise if the price of crude oil continues to strengthen. Coal futures prices may test the resistance level at 75.50.

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The price of Rotterdam's ICE coal closed weak at the end of the weekend trading late Saturday, triggered by weak demand. India has canceled plans to build nearly 14GW of coal-fired power plants - equivalent to the total in the UK - with the price of solar electricity falling freely to levels considered impossible.

 

Rotterdam coal price futures for the most active contracts, the July 2017 contract ended down towards 78.50 dollars per tonne. The price of these commodities decreased by 0.15 dollars or equivalent to 0.19 percent compared to previous one.

 

For this week the price of rotterdam coal is still up 0.5 percent. The bullish sentiment closing down 37 of India Coal mines and US consumption increases, offset by sentiment bearing crude weakness, falling demand and increased US supply. Analysts had expected that the Rotterdam coal price movement in future trading would be weak if US dollar strengthening occurred.

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The price of Rotterdam's Coal closed weak at the end of trading Friday dawn (30/06), after China banned the coal imports. China plans to ban coal imports from July 1 at ports established through approval by the provincial government, according to people familiar with the situation, the latest move by President Xi Jinping's government to give tighter controls in the market.

 

Rotterdam coal price futures for the most active contract, the October 2017 contract ended down at 77.15 dollars per tonne. The price of the commodity decreased by 1.10 dollars or equivalent to 1.41 percent compared to the previous closing trade position.

 

Analysts estimates that Rotterdam coal price futures in future trade may potentially rise if the weakening US dollar continues. Coal futures price potentially test the resistance level at 77.70 dollar and the second resistance at 78.20 dollar level.

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At the end of trading late Thursday (06/07), Rotterdam's coal price rose, ignoring the weakening of crude oil prices. The price of rotterdam coal positively triggered China supply disruption.

 

Coal supply disruptions in China are the problem, where demand for thermal coal increases after heavy rains have an impact on hydropower capacity. A large rainfall in China has forced the world's largest power plant, the Three Gorges dam, to reduce its capacity by 6,000 MW.

 

At the end of trading the Rotterdam coal price futures were at 79.70 dollars per ton. The price of the commodity has strengthened by 0.57 percent compared to the previous closing trade position. Later evening will also be released US weekly inventory of crude oil data indicated to decline.

 

Analysts expect that Rotterdam's coal price movement in future trade may potentially rise if the price of crude oil is realized increases. Coal futures price potentially testing the resistance at around 78.20 dollars and the second resistance at around 78.70 dollars.

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The Rotterdam coal futures price on ICE closed weakly in late trade, as coal prices appeared to be weighed down by the weakening of crude oil which fell about 3 percent in late trade.

 

Currently, the price of coal futures for the most active contract which is August 2017 contract seems to fall down towards 83.50 dollars per ton. The price of the commodity declined by around 0.36 percent compared to previous price.

 

For weekly analysis, coal prices jumped about 4.5 percent, largely helped by the strengthening of crude oil prices and China supply disruptions. Many analysts predict that price movements of coal futures will be weaker than anticipated as continued concerns about the increase of global crude output are pressing down on crude prices.