Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis

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The movement of oil prices tended to stabilize on Thursday, buoyed by easing supply led by OPEC, tensions in the Middle East and U.S. production. which is lower due to the closure of oil refineries due to the threat of storms.

 

The price of Brent crude was at $ 58.10, slightly lower than its last closing price, but about 30 percent above its mid-year price. While West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was at $ 51.97 a barrel, also got a touch of the final settlement, but almost a quarter higher than in June.

 

U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that U.S. crude stockpiles down by 5.7 million barrels in the week ending Oct. 13 to 456.49 million barrels.

 

U.S. Output slumped by 11 percent from the previous week to 8.4 million barrels per day (bpd), the lowest since June 2014 as production had to be closed due to tropical storm Nate, which hit the Gulf coast. in early October. Analysts say there is also a risk to supply from political instability in regions ranging from the Middle East to South America.

 

Adding to this tension, the President of the U.S. Donald Trump last week refused to endorse Iran's compliance with the nuclear deal, prompting a 60-day Congress to decide on further action against Tehran.

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Crude oil prices edged up on Asia session on Friday, buoyed by signs of a drop in US crude inventories. The price of WTI crude oil was at $ 51.47 a barrel. Brent crude futures were at $ 57.39, up 0.28 percent from their recent close.

 

Supply of U.S. crude oil. has dropped 15 percent from their March record, to 456.5 million barrels, below levels seen last year. Part of this decline was due to an increase in exports as a result of the sharp decline in WTI crude compared to Brent, which made it attractive for American producers to export their oil.

 

In addition, the futures crude futures curve is behind, which makes it more attractive to sell oil produced soon instead of saving it for later delivery. Analysts seem to expect crude oil prices to potentially rise with sentiment of falling US crude supply. The price is expected to move within the Resistance range between $ 52.00- $ 52.50, and if the price falls will move within the Support range between $ 51.00- $ 50.50.

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Crude oil prices edged up on Asia session on Friday, buoyed by signs of a drop in US crude inventories. The price of WTI crude oil was at $ 51.47 a barrel. Brent crude futures were at $ 57.39, up 0.28 percent from their recent close.

 

Supply of U.S. crude oil. has dropped 15 percent from their March record, to 456.5 million barrels, below levels seen last year. Part of this decline was due to an increase in exports as a result of the sharp decline in WTI crude compared to Brent, which made it attractive for American producers to export their oil.

 

In addition, the futures crude futures curve is behind, which makes it more attractive to sell oil produced soon instead of saving it for later delivery. Analysts seem to expect crude oil prices to potentially rise with sentiment of falling US crude supply. The price is expected to move within the Resistance range between $ 52.00- $ 52.50, and if the price falls will move within the Support range between $ 51.00- $ 50.50.

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Oil rose to $ 58 per barrel on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia's top exporter said it was determined to end global supply surplus, while oil prices rose as well as support from further forecasts of a decline in U.S. crude inventories.

 

Saudi energy ministers say that the focus remains on reducing oil stockpiles in industrialized countries against their five-year average and increasing the prospect of extended output restrictions once the cutting pact of OPEC bids is over.

 

Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose 28 cents to $ 57.65 a barrel on Asia session. The price of the crude had reached $ 59.49 on September 26, the highest since July 2015. While the price of crude oil also rose as much as 30 cents to $ 52.20.

 

The American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, released data on Tuesday, while the Information Administration Report on crude oil inventory positions issued by the government of the U.S. will be released on Wednesday.

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U.S. crude oil prices surged to a two-year high at the end of Friday's trade as the North American market strengthened on partial closure of the Keystone pipeline linking Canada's oilfield with the United States.

 

Analysts said that the surge in moves came after a Bloomberg report said that OPEC and Russia have outlined the framework of the deal. However, details remain unclear and the report says there is no final agreement yet.

 

The market also tightened globally due to production decline since January by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and several other manufacturers. OPEC met on Nov. 30 and is expected to extend production cuts beyond the March deadline, though Russia has sent mixed signals about its support for an extension.

 

Rising U.S. oil production has also pressured crude prices to rise. U.S. Production soaring 15 percent since mid-2016 to a record 9.66 million bpd, thanks largely to shale drilling.

 

Analysts expect crude oil prices this week to potentially rise with bullish sentiment in production disruptions in the Canadian-US pipeline, as well as expectations of extending the OPEC and Russia's production restrictions. The price is expected to move within the resistance range between $ 59.50 - $ 60.40.

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Brent crude oil prices rocketed to the highest level since 2015, after a major oil pipeline in the North Sea was forced to close for repairs. This is increasingly tightening supply in the global market, while OPEC production restrictions have just been extended. Currently, Brent continues the rally that has been going on since last night by rising 0.85% from the opening price to around $ 65.26 per barrel. WTI Crude oil was rise about 0.57% to $ 58.31 per barrel.

 

The price spike in Brent Crude Oil this time widened its gap with WTI oil prices, rising to nearly 7 US dollars per barrel, from just about 5 US Dollars per barrel last week. It is projected to make US-exported oil more attractive to consumers because it is cheaper, pushing the superpower to push more market share while OPEC and its allies are limiting production.

 

Currently, US crude oil production has risen by more than 15 percent since mid-2016 to around 9.71 million bpd, the highest level since the early 1970s. With that level of production, the US is getting closer to the world's biggest oil producers such as Russia and Saudi Arabia.

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Crude oil prices slumped in late trading late Thursday (14/12) hampered by higher-than-expected gasoline inventories and U.S. crude oil output continues to grow to record highs.

 

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude futures ended down 54 cents, or 1 percent, at $ 56.60 a barrel, after finishing the previous session down 85 cents. Brent crude futures fell 92 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $ 62.42 a barrel.

 

The US EIA reported US crude inventories fell 5.1 million barrels in the week to December 15, compared with analysts' expectations of a 3.8 million barrel drop.

 

But news of crude oil declines, tackled by gasoline supplies rose by 5.7 million barrels, compared with analyst expectations in a Reuters poll of 2.5 million barrels. Distillate supplies, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 1.4 million barrels, versus expectations for a 902,000-barrel increase, EIA data showed.

 

Some analysts expect crude oil prices to potentially move higher if the US dollar continues to weaken, as well as bargain hunting after the price drops. The price is expected to move within the resistance range between $ 57.10 - $ 57.60.

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Crude oil prices fell for the first time in a week following reports that a damaged Libyan pipeline will be fixed next week. WTI oil for February delivery fell as much as 0.05% to $ 59.61 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent oil for February delivery settled down 0.87% or to $ 66.44 per barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Reported by Bloomberg, oil pipeline Waha Oil Co. which brings crude to Libya's biggest terminal will need about a week to repair following an explosion that occurred on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a report by American Petroleum Institute showing US crude stocks dropping by 5.96 million barrels last week did not provide a significant boost to the market.

Oil prices have been boosted this month on the cuts by OPEC and other oil-producing countries to extend production cuts by 2018. In addition, cessation of oil pipeline operations in the North Sea also contributes to rising prices, while the increase in the number of US oil rigs has stalled even when oil prices above the $ 50.

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Crude oil prices fell at the end of the weekend trading, down from the highs of 2015, weighed by a surge in U.S. production. The price of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ended down nearly 1 percent at $ 61.44 a barrel. For this week the price of crude oil rose about 1.7 percent. Brent crude futures fell to $ 67.62 a barrel. The contract jumped to $ 68.27 in the previous session, also the highest since May 2015.

Increased U.S. production and weaker demand for processed products weighs on the market. Traders say political tensions in Iran, the third largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, have pushed up prices. Given that Iranian oil production has not been affected by the unrest, and that US production is likely to break the 10 million barrels per day (bpd) soon, a level so far achieved only by Saudi Arabia and Russia, doubts arise whether the rally could survive

Many analysts expected that Crude Oil price overall will rise with optimism of OPEC-Russia production cuts and unrest in Iran. The oil price is expected to move within the resistance range which is between $ 61.90 and $ 62.40 .

[hogabedo]

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