Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis

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Crude oil prices surged in late trading Tuesday morning, amid renewed speculation that OPEC will try to restrain production, easing fears of oversupply which made the market fell last week's three-month low. US crude oil futures price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ended 2.92 percent higher at 43.022 per barrel, while Brent Oil price futures traded at 45.332 a barrel, up around 1.065.

The increase comes on the back of the Wall Street Journal reported last week that OPEC countries such as Venezuela, Ecuador and Kuwait want to hold production cooperation among 14 countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-members such as Russia.

Currently, it estimated that Crude Oil price at the next trade will weaken with the strengthening of the US dollar after strong US jobs data and a global glut sentiment. However, if the OPEC countries to hold discussions continued production area, would help Crude oil price rise. Prices are expected to penetrate and ended up between the range of 42.500 - 42.003, and if the price rises will ended up between the range of 43.502 - 44.001.

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Oil prices steady in Asian trading Wednesday morning, with a global oversupply weighed on the market while talks on a potential producer meeting to discuss the strengthening of price support though was met with skepticism by analysts.

US crude oil futures price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $ 42.73 per barrel. While international crude oil futures prices in Brent were $ 45.01 per barrel, up 2 cents. Traders said the market was weighed down by sustained oversupply in fuel products rough and smooth, and that the meeting suggested by oil producers are unlikely to generate significant market tightening.

However, it should be observed the movement of the US dollar overnight retreat could support higher prices. Also sentiment OPEC meeting which is rising will lift crude oil prices. Prices are expected to penetrate the range between $ 42.20 - $ 41.70, and if the price rises will penetrate range between $ 43.20 - $ 43.70.

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 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures traded at  41.344 a barrel at , down 37 cents, or 0.9 percent, from their last settlement. While other crude Oil which is Brent was at 43.723 a barrel, down 33 cents, or 0.8 percent.

 

Crude oil fell sharply after data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed US crude inventories rose 1.1 million barrels in the week ending August 5. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a draw of 1.0 million barrels of crude oil instead.

 

It looks like the price of crude oil at the next trade will weaken global glut depressed sentiment. However, it should be observed the movement of US dollar overnight retreat could support higher prices. Prices are expected to penetrate the support range 40.800 - 40.305, and if the price rises will penetrate resistance range of 42.209 -  42.704.

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Crude oil prices edged higher in early trade on Friday, in the Asian session, extending gains from the previous session amid expectations of Oil exporter's meeting continue to prop up the market dogged by oversupply. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) at the level of 43.712 per barrel while the price of Brent crude oil traded at 46,200 per barrel

 

The market was supported statement of Saudi Arabia's energy minister Khalid al-Falih said in a statement Thursday that oil producers will discuss at a meeting next month. Also the outlook published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the balance of supply and demand decreased towards the end of the year also supported prices.

 

Analysis of Oil prices today is potentially strengthened by tightening production IEA estimates sentiment and prospects of OPEC production cuts. Prices are expected to penetrate the resistance range around 44.200 to 44.704, and if the price drops will penetrate the range of support around 43.207 to 42.704.

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Crude oil prices rose on Monday in Asian trade and has increased by more than 10 percent since the beginning of the month due to the intensification of speculation about potential actions to support producer prices in the market oversupply.

US crude oil futures price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was at 44.65 per barrel, while Brent crude traded at 47.10 per barrel.

It is estimated that the price of crude oil at the next trade potentially strengthened dollar weakness also helped the sentiment outlook for discussion stabilization OPEC. Prices are expected to penetrate the Resistance range between 45.20 - 45.70, and if the price drops will penetrate Support range between 44.20 - 43.70.

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Crude oil hit a one-month high at the end of trading on Tuesday before dawn, gained 10.8 percent in the three-day rally pushed intense speculation on oil producing countries efforts to stabilize prices amid a glut of supplies.

 

Data from market intelligence firm that predicted outcome Genscape recall of more than 350,000 barrels in Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub US crude oil futures last week, added to the bullish sentiment, traders said that looking at the data.

 

US crude oil of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose $ 1.25, or 2.81 percent, to $ 45.74 a barrel, after rallying earlier to $ 45.75, reaching its highest level since July 18. Brent prices rose $ 1.37, or 2.92 percent, at $ 48.33 per barrel. Brent has risen about 10 percent cumulatively in the past three sessions. Since early August, Brent increased by about 13 percent.

 

Analysis for the forex movement today is the price of crude oil at the next trade will be affected by the pull of sentiment of optimism the country's efforts to stabilize the price of oil producers with fears of global economic slowdown. Stronger sentiment will affect the price. Prices are expected to penetrate the resistance in the range between $ 46.25 - $ 46.75, and if the price drops will penetrate support at the range between $ 45.25 - $ 44.75.

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The price of oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was at $ 46.33 a barrel, down -25 cents, or -0.54 percent of their final closure, while the price of Brent traded at $ 48.87 a barrel, down 36 cents from the last settlement they. Despite the decline, the price remains above 17 percent since the beginning of August and still not far from a five-week high of $ 49.36 a barrel reached the day before.

 

Crude oil prices fell from 5-week highs on Asian session trading Wednesday, pressured various negative sentiment that the estimated increase in US gasoline, the strengthening US dollar and doubts talks oil producers to rein in excess supply.

 

It is estimated that the price of crude oil at the next trade may rise if the data weekly EIA crude oil inventories decreased realized. But dollar weakness can be a positive sentiment in oil prices. Prices are expected to penetrate the resistance range between $ 46.80 - $ 47.30, and if the price drops will penetrate support range between $45.80 - $ 45.30.

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The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) was at $ 46.73 a barrel, down 6 cents, or 0.13 per cent. While the price of Brent crude oil traded at $ 49.65 a barrel, down 20 cents, or 0.40 percent of their final closure.

 

Traders said the fall in prices was due to profit taking after a strong rally this month, and as traders worried about the prospect of a record production from top exporter Saudi Arabia. Oil prices slumped in Asian trade Thursday triggered the estimated record production of Saudi Arabia, which weighed on the market, and traders took profits following a rally this month is almost up nearly 20 percent.

 

The price will likely go down to concerns with potential supply glut that is characterized by record high production of Saudi Arabia and pessimism results of the talk for producer of crude oil next month. Technically, the price can break a range between $ 46.20 - $ 45.70.

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Crude oil rose for a sixth day, with Brent crude hitting eight-week highs in late trading Friday morning supported expectations the world's biggest oil producers are ready to discuss freezing the level of crude oil production. The increase in crude oil prices also supported the weakening of the US dollar.

 

Crude oil futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose $ 1.43, or 3.06 percent, at $ 48.22 per barrel, also near the top of the session will return to 5 July. The price of Brent crude oil futures rose 88 cents, or 1.79 percent, to $ 50.74 a barrel, near its intraday high of going back to June 23.

 

WTI strength on Thursday as a result of the flood of new orders to ship crude oil to Europe to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities resulting from the wide spreads between benchmark US and Europe.

 

Crude oil price estimated to rise to expectations of freezing production and the weakening US dollar. Prices are expected to penetrate the Resistance range $ 48.70 - $ 49.20, and if the price drops will penetrate Support range $ 47.70 - $ 47.20.

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Oil prices fell in Asian trade on Monday (22/08) triggered doubts that analysts link the producer talks will be able to rein in excess supply. US crude oil of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 55 cents, or 1.13 percent, at $ 47.97 per barrel, while Brent crude oil traded at $ 50.13 per barrel, down 75 cents, or 1.47 percent.

Analysts doubt the rally in oil prices recently, saying that the increase is the result of a lot of short-covering and anticipation talks oil producers that will come in September to discuss ways to rein in excess supply. Without a strong market fundamentals are seen, they say that the price is likely to be under downward pressure again soon.

Today the price of crude oil at the next trade potentially weak with a potentially stronger US dollar and doubts of freezing production. Prices are expected to penetrate the Support range between $ 47.50 - $ 47.00, and if the price rises will penetrate Resistance range between $ 48.50 - $ 49.00.

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Crude oil prices fell in Asian trading session on Tuesday as analysts including Goldman Sachs warned that the rally in August has been exaggerated, and that the freezing of the proposed oil production at a level close to the current record will not help control the market oversupply. Based on that the futures price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 44 cents, or 0.93 percent, to $ 46.97 per barrel. Meanwhile, crude oil futures prices of Brent traded at $ 48.80 a barrel, down 36 cents, or 0.73 percent of their final closure.

Analysts estimates that the price of crude oil at the next trade have weak bearish potential as there is pessimism of the freezing production and a glut of supply. Prices are expected to penetrate the support range between 46.50 - 46.00, and if the price rises will penetrate resistance range between 47.50 - 48.00

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Crude oil prices fell in Asian session Wednesday (24/08) triggered an unexpected rise in US crude inventories, also stressed concerns that China's oil demand could falter following the alleged tax evasion in the oil industry. US crude oil futures price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 68 cents, or 1.41 percent, at $ 47.42 per barrel. Meanwhile, crude oil futures prices International benchmark Brent traded at $ 49.39 a barrel, down 57 cents, or 1.14 percent, from the last closing them.

 

Reinforcing fears of excess supply, US crude inventories surprisingly rose last week, though inventories of gasoline and distillate stocks fell sharply declined, data from industry group American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday.

 

Analyst estimates that the price of crude oil at the next trade have weak potential to rise and sentiment of pessimism freezing production and a glut of supply. Prices are expected to penetrate the Support range between $ 46.90 - $ 46.40, and if the price rises will penetrate Resistance range between $ 47.90 - $ 48.40.

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Crude oil prices extended losses in late trading on Thursday morning, due to an unexpected rise in US crude inventories that reignited concerns about a supply glut that has weighed on prices over the last two years. US crude oil inventories rose 2.5 million barrels to total 523.6 million barrels in the week to August 19 due to declining refinery inputs and gasoline production fell, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

 

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) fell at $ 46.77 per barrel. Crude futures global benchmark Brent fell 93 cents at $ 49.03 a barrel, after touching an intraday low of $ 49.07. Brent surged above $ 50 in the previous session after Reuters reported that Iran has sent a positive signal that the state can support joint OPEC action to prop up oil prices.

 

Growth in demand for crude oil has been driven by strong Chinese independent refiners, which began importing crude oil last June after receiving crude oil import quotas and licenses from the government. But Beijing's crackdown on alleged tax evasion in the oil industry, threatening to hit Chinese demand.

 

It looks like the price of crude oil at the next trade potentially weak with potential supply glut concerns and pessimism freezing production meetings. Prices are expected to penetrate the support range between $ 46.30 - $ 45.80, and if the price rises will penetrate resistance range of $ 47.30 - $ 47.80.

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Crude oil prices dipped in early trade on Friday (26/08) Asian session with fading hopes of freezing production after Saudi Arabia's energy minister insisted there was strong market intervention is required by the manufacturer during talks next month. As a result of this case crude oil price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 7 cents to $ 47.26 per barrel. While the price of Brent oil traded at $ 49.55 per barrel.

 

Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih told Reuters on Thursday that "we do not believe that a significant intervention in the market is necessary but to let the forces of supply and demand to work," adding that "the market is already moving in the right direction".

 

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum (IEF), between groups of producers and consumers, in Algeria from 26 to 28 September. The comments put a damper on expectations freezing production deal with the excess supply for more than two years.

 

For it is estimated the price of crude oil at the next trade potentially weak if sentiment waning clotting production expectations continued to strengthen. However, if the US dollar continues to weaken ahead of Yellen's speech in Wyoming, could lift oil prices. Prices are expected to penetrate the support range of $ 46.80 - $ 46.30, and if the price will go up through the resistance in the range of $ 47.80 - $ 48.30.

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Crude oil prices rose in late trading ended the weekend early Saturday, after comments from Fed Chairman Janet Yellen and report missile activities in Saudi Arabia. US crude oil futures prices were at $ 47.60 per barrel, up 27 cents, or 0.55 percent. While the price of Brent crude oil futures for October was up 0.44 percent at $ 49.89 per barrel.

 

The global market is reacting to Yellen's speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, as his remarks initially caused a big rally in the dollar, which led to the oil slipped. But then, the dollar reduces the profits, with the dollar index fell as much as 0.5 percent. Reduced profit occurred because Yellen gave no indication of a US rate hike certainty.

 

Oil prices touched a day after a report from Yemen missile hit Saudi Arabia's oil facilities, traders said. Saudi state television reported that a projectile fired from Yemen hit electric facilities relay in Najran, in the southern part of Saudi Arabia.

 

The estimation is that the price of crude oil at the next trade potential still weak with the potential strengthening of the US dollar after Yellen's speech. Prices are expected to penetrate the Support range between $ 47.10 - $ 46.60, and if the price rises will penetrate Resistance range between $ 48.10 - $ 48.60.

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Crude oil futures prices rose in Asian trade on Tuesday as USD reduces its earlier gains, but doubts that producers will be able to approve a freeze of production continues to drag the price. US crude oil futures price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 19 cents, or 0.40 percent, to $ 47.17 per barrel, while the price of International benchmark Brent crude oil traded at $ 49.37 a barrel, up 11 cents, or 0.22 percent from its previous close.

 

The US dollar retreated from a two-week day highs on Monday as investors looked ahead to this week's jobs data, as also stated Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer that the jobs data will be crucial whether the US central bank to raise interest rates soon or not.

 

A weakening US dollar makes oil purchases for countries with other currencies cheaper, potentially spurring demand for fuel. But fears of a successful outcome to the talks in September between members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to suspend production continues to weigh on the market.

 

Meanwhile, Nigerian rebels pledged to end hostilities against the oil and gas industry, which they repeatedly attacked earlier this year that reduces the OPEC member's production of 700,000 barrels per day to 1.56 million barrels per day.

 

By those fundamental data the price of crude oil at the next trade may rise if the US dollar continue weakening. However there is potential for bearish sentiment that continues to threaten global glut of such worries and pessimism meeting of oil producer in Algeria. Prices are expected to penetrate resistance at $ 47.70, and if the price drops will penetrate support at $ 46.70.

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Crude oil prices fell more than 1 percent in late morning trading on Wednesday stressed the strengthening US dollar and fears of oversupply of crude oil. US crude oil futures price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 63 cents at $ 46.35 per barrel. While the price of Brent crude oil futures fell 90 cents to $ 48.36 per barrel.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, hit a session peak after US Consumer Expectations Index rose to the highest in October. A stronger greenback tends to make dollar-denominated oil commodity becomes expensive for holders of other currencies.

Warnings of tropical storm system developing around the center of oil and gas in the US Gulf of Mexico provide a decline in crude oil prices, the energy company announced the suspension of production at some there.

Oil and gas operators in the US Gulf of Mexico has been shut down production by 168 334 barrels per day (bpd) of oil and 190 million cubic feet per day of natural gas as a precaution against a tropical storm, the Bureau of Safety and Enforcement of environmental Monday.

It estimated that the price of crude oil at the next trade if potentially weak US dollar continue weakening and supply glut worries and pessimism meeting of oil producer in Algeria. Prices are expected to penetrate the Support range between $ 45.80 - $ 45.30, and if the price rises will penetrate Resistance range between $ 46.80 - $ 47.30.

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Crude oil prices fell 3 percent in late trading Thursday morning, after government data showed an increase in weekly inventories more than expected for crude oil and distillate withdrawal of the US and a smaller-than-expected in gasoline.

EIA said crude oil inventories rose for the second consecutive week, rising 2.3 million barrels last week, compared with analyst expectations for a 921,000 barrel rise. Distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, rose a surprising 1.5 million barrels, while gasoline inventories 691,000 barrel decline was about half the estimated withdrawal.

US crude oil futures price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell at $ 44.70. While the price of Brent crude oil futures fell $ 1.33 to $ 47.04 per barrel. For the month of August rose 8 percent for WTI oil and Brent was up 11 percent. Crude futures remained on track for the best monthly result since April, after speculation in recent weeks that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil producers could agree to curb production in September talks in Algeria.

It looks like the price of crude oil at the next trade will fell with US dollar continue to strengthen, also their supply glut concerns and pessimism meeting of oil producer in Algeria. Prices are expected to penetrate the support range between 44.20 - 43.70, and if the price rises will penetrate resistance range between 45.20 - 45.70.

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Crude oil prices rose in Asian trade on Friday (02/09) after a loss of more than 3 percent a day earlier, with investors cautious ahead of key US jobs data that will help gauge the health of the economy. US crude oil futures price of West Texas Intermediate rose 24 cents to $ 43.40 a barrel, supported by a weaker US dollar. Despite increases in the session, the price of Brent and WTI are on track for the biggest weekly loss since mid-January, stressed the increase in oil inventories and weak US manufacturing data. 

 

The end of the US driving season and the prospect of building supplies make downward risk for oil prices and may see further pressure on energy stocks at this time. Investors looked ahead to data on non-farm payrolls later in the day for the direction of the US economy, with a strong reading increases the chances of Federal Reserve interest rate hike soon.

 

The increase in interest rates could strengthen the dollar, which could push oil prices because it makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. Friday's rise in oil prices may be limited by concerns over slowing global economic growth. There is also a growing skepticism among traders that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers such as Russia will fail to freeze production at a meeting in Algeria later this month.

 

It estimated that the price of crude oil at the next trade is projected to rise helped by weakening US dollar. If tonight realized weak NFP data, US dollar will weaken and make crude oil price stronger. Prices are expected to penetrate the resistance range between $ 43.90 - $ 44.40, and if the price drops will penetrate support range between $ 42.90 - $ 42.40.

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Crude oil prices surged 3 percent in late trading weekend early Saturday supported the statement was optimistic Russia for suspending production, also after reporting weaker growth in the US non-farm payrolls in August could depress US Dlar. But crude oil futures remained on track for big weekly loss on fears of a global glut.

The US dollar index weakened after the jobs report, making oil and other commodities denominated in dollars more affordable for holders of the euro and other currencies. West Texas Intermediate rose $ 1.28, or 2.97 percent, at $ 44.44 per barrel, on track for a 7 percent weekly decline, meanwhile Brent rose $ 1.27 to $ 46.72 per barrel but was on track for a decline of more than 6 percent during the week.

Crude oil rose earlier after Russian President Vladimir Putin told Bloomberg agreement between oil exporters to suspend production will be the right decision to support the market. The report published on the same day Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak understate the potential to discuss the possibility of freezing production. 

The number of oil refineries operating in the US rose 1 with a total of 407, marking the ninth rise in 10 weeks after a flat reading last week, according to a weekly count of the energy services provider Baker Hughes. At this time last year, the drillers operates 662 oil refineries. In addition, the US supply will return to the market as some manufacturers in the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico restart operations offshore because of the storm Hermine landed in Florida and weakened to a tropical storm.

It seems that the price of crude oil at the next trade is projected to rise helped by the weakening of US dollar after weak US NFP data which will diminish the US rate hike expectations. Prices are expected to penetrate the Resistance range between$ 45.00 - $ 45.50, and if the price drops will penetrate Support range between $ 44.00 - $ 43.50.

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Crude prices in trading Monday evening ride after a joint statement from Saudi Arabia and Russia for cooperation to support the oil market. US crude futures last traded West Texas Intermediate rose $ 0.63, or 1.42 percent, at $ 45.07 per barrel. The price of Brent crude oil futures for November delivery rose more than 3 percent higher at $ 48.55 a barrel, settling up $ 1.38 on Friday. US crude oil trading is likely to be limited on Monday for the US Labor Day holiday.

Oil rallied on news that major oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia made a joint statement during the G20 summit in China called for cooperation to support the oil market. However, commodity prices reduce profits when the announcement was made. Russian Energy Minister said that the two countries have moved to a strategic energy partnership and are looking for ways to stabilize the market.

Previous oil futures edged down in early trade on Monday, reducing the 3 percent gain in the previous session, as the dollar strengthened and traders looked persistent concerns on the world oil glut despite some signs of oil producers can try to cope with weaker oil prices.

The US dollar rose ignore disappointing US jobs data Friday did little to change investor perception that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates in coming months.

The price of Crude Oil estimated to rise supported by the weakening US dollar and optimism talks of freezing production. Prices are expected to penetrate the Resistance range between $ 45.50 - $ 46.00, and if the price drops will penetrate Support range between $ 44.50 - $ 44.00.

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Crude oil prices were mixed in late morning trading Wednesday, after the easing hopes for an agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia in production freezing to address global oversupply.  Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed on Monday to cooperate in world oil markets, pushing Brent crude jumped nearly 5 percent. However, the increase in retained after Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said there is no need to freeze production at this time.

 

Brent crude futures traded 27 cents lower at $ 47.36 per barrel after this and US(WTI) crude oil futures for October, which traded thinly on Monday for the Labor Day holiday, was at $ 44.91, up 47 cents, or 1.06 percent.

 

While the Saudi minister played down the prospect of immediate action, his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak said he is open to ideas about the cut-off period to be used if the state chooses to freeze production and said that production cuts could be considered. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC producers, such as Russia, will hold informal talks in Algeria on 26 to 28 September. Many in the market are skeptical a deal will happen.

 

"It looks like we have found a new trading range in the $ 40s now and the market is very sensitive to any story about the possibility of freezing production," said Gene McGillian, senior analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.

 

"The condition of Iran appears that OPEC should agree to allow Iran to return to the OPEC export quota and pre-sanctions level of production," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note. "Even if successful, freezing OPEC would likely be a short-term positive but negative for the medium-term oil prices.". In the US market, traders said that the market was supported by the data Genscape reported results from the withdrawal of about 700,000 barrels of crude oil last week at Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub US crude oil futures.

 

It estimated that the price of crude oil at the next trade is projected to rise by a weakening US dollar after slumping US service sector data. Prices are expected to penetrate the Resistance range between $ 45.50 - $ 46.00, and if the price drops will penetrate Support range between $ 44.50 - $ 44.00.

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Oil prices extended gains of more than 1.5 percent on Thursday in the Asian session after industry data showed the largest weekly drawdown in crude inventories in more than three decades. US crude inventories surprisingly fell 12.1 million barrels last week, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that after the completion of the market on Wednesday, compared with expectations for a gain of 200,000 barrels.

 

If the official data released from the US government on Thursday nights later confirms the results of the withdrawal, it will be the biggest weekly decline since April 1985. NYMEX crude futures for October delivery rose 79 cents to $ 46.29, after ending the previous session up 67 cents. The price of Brent crude oil futures for November delivery was up 75 cents to $ 48.73 a barrel at 0400 GMT, after settling up 72 cents on Wednesday.

 

US crude inventories have been at record highs in the past two years, partly thanks to the shale oil boom that encourage production. Some analysts said the tropical storm Hermine, which threatens the Gulf Coast refining region late last week before moving to the East Coast of the US, may have lowered numbers.

 

Analyst estimates that the price of crude oil at the next trade has the potential to increase with a decrease in US crude oil inventories data. Prices are expected to penetrate the resistance range between $ 46.80 - $ 47.30, and if the price drops will penetrate support range between $ 45.80 - $ 45.30.

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Crude oil prices fell under pressure of profit-taking in trading Friday (09/09) in the Asian session, after ending up more than 4 percent a day earlier after government data confirmed the surprisingly large drawdown in US crude inventories. NYMEX crude futures for October delivery fell 0.84 percent to $ 47.22, after settling up $ 2.12, on Thursday.

 

The price of Brent crude oil futures for November delivery fell 0.88 percent to $ 49.55 per barrel. It closed up 4.2 percent, at $ 49.99 on Thursday after hitting a near two-week high of $ 50.14 earlier. US crude oil inventories fell 14.5 million barrels last week to 511.4 million barrels, the biggest weekly drop in inventories since January 1999, according to government data.

 

Imports into the US Gulf Coast fell to 2.5 million barrels per day, the lowest since data collection began in 1990. Traders said imports fell because of delayed ships unload cargo in Texas and Louisiana as Tropical Storm Hermine. Russian oil production rose an average of close to 11 million barrels per day for 1 to 7 September, industry sources told Reuters, from 10.71 million barrels per day in August. 

 

Analyst estimates that the price of crude oil at the next trade is projected to rise by the drop in US crude inventories. However, it should be observed that if the movement of US dollar continued to rise would push the price of oil. Prices are expected to penetrate the resistance range between $ 48.10 - $ 48.60, and if the price drops will penetrate support range between $ 47.10 - $ 46.60.

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Crude oil prices fell lower in late trading weekend early Saturday, but posted its first weekly gain in three weeks after Russia and Saudi Arabia have agreed to work together to help balance the market and after a surprisingly large drawdown in US crude inventories.

NYMEX crude futures for October delivery fell $ 1.73 at $ 45.89, While the price of Brent crude oil futures for November delivery fell $ 1.97 at $ 48.02 per barrel after rising above $ 50 for the first time in two weeks on Thursday. Both crude oil pressured by a stronger dollar index amid concerns over the health of the EU economy.

The International Energy Agency said it expects demand for oil to eventually exceed supply in the third quarter 2016, which means a record global crude oil inventories began to fall.But analysts from Morgan Stanley said in a note on Friday there was a risk the market may not balance until later.

"Once again, we see the possibility of increasing the time some unexpected bearish developments to come together, which could encourage failure of re-balancing (seasonal demand exceeds supply) until the end of 2017, or even 2018," said Morgan Stanley.

If manufacturers OPEC and non-OPEC agreed to implement measures to restrict the supply when they meet next month in Algeria, it will help balance the market. Algerian Oil Minister, on Friday said two separate agreements may be required between members of OPEC and non-OPEC, highlighting the difficulties seize the offer.

Iran's oil production growth has stalled in the last three months, new data showed, suggesting Tehran may be struggling to meet its plan to increase production to new highs. Analyst estimates that the price of crude oil at the next trade potentially weak with a potential rise of US dollar. Prices are expected to penetrate the Support range between $ 45.40 - $ 43.90, and if the price rises will penetrate resistance range between $ 46.40 - $ 46.90.