Gold Fundamental Analysis

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The world's gold prices have slumped to their lowest levels in a week in line with the return of investor preferences on riskier assets such as stocks in the global market.

 

Today the Asian stock exchanges have seen their peak position in recent years, with investors slightly relieved from their previous worries over North Korea's nuclear test threat as well as by no prediction of the worst-case scenario of Irma's storm in America. 

 

Reduced potential risks led to the choice of gold as a safe-haven asset reduced in the portfolio of global investors, as well as to attract profits after gold had perched at its highest peak of the year (12/9). The spot price of gold was at $ 1326.15 an ounce this afternoon. Analysts believe that the spot price of gold is fairly corrected to $ 1300 after a long rally before this, but could be rebound at any time when the risk of risk increases.

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Gold prices showed a rebound in Asian session Friday morning after North Korea fired a missile across Hokkaido, Japan, toward the Pacific Ocean. Responding to the report, the market was hunting for safe-haven assets including gold and yen.

 

Spot gold rose around 0.1 percent to $ 1,333.79 a troy ounce, after dropping to its lowest level since Aug. 31 at $ 1,315.71 in the previous trading session. Meanwhile, gold futures for December delivery on the Comex NYMEX shot 0.46 percent to $ 1,335.36 a troy ounce.

 

However, the gold rally is apparently not expanding; Three-way money with the Yen's rally against US Dollar. Because the market is preparing for this geopolitical possibility, so they do not panic and blindly buy safe-haven assets. There are a number of issues that are appealing to the market today. The reaction to the missile launch this morning, still undefeated by US inflation reported better than expectations yesterday evening.

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The world's spot gold prices were observed steady on the day after rising more than one percent in the previous session, boosted by increasing demand for safe-haven assets amid rising tensions around North Korea and in keeping with the dollar's retreat from its three-week high.

 

Spot gold on the afternoon was seen stabilizing around its $ 1,310.80 an ounce level, not far from Monday's peak at $ 1,311.50, which posted its biggest daily gain since Sept 7.

 

Market analysts say that selling in the stock market and rising potential market risk has triggered a rise in gold prices. North Korea's foreign minister said Monday that the weekend tweet from President Donald Trump was considered a declaration of war against North Korea

 

Meanwhile, Asian stock markets on this day generally slip with the dollar off its gains against the Japanese yen by rising tensions on the Korean peninsula. Stock prices on Hong Kong and mainland China bourses are seen sagging, led by property sector after new housing rules from the Chinese government to suppress overheated markets.

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Gold prices slumped again on Asia trading session this morning, while financial market players are waiting for the release of Nonfarm Payroll data to be published by the US Department of Labor in the New York session tonight. Gold Spot has dropped to 1268.48 and its lowest level since mid-August

 

The release of US economic data later this week underscores the employment report, one of which is Nonfarm Payroll (NFP), which usually has a major impact on financial markets, including the Gold price. Although this data is projected to be bad due to the impact of Harvey and Irma storms in some parts of the US last month, but most market participants choose to wait-and-see.

 

The price of the sensitive Gold responds to the strengthening and weakening of the US dollar exchange rate. In fact, tight monetary policy, potentially pushing the appreciation of US Dollar. In addition, the increase in interest rates also increases the opportunity cost for gold investors who do not get the yield in the form of interest.

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The price of gold still showed a slight increase in trading session Thursday this morning following the release of FOMC minutes earlier this morning. The US dollar slipped as the minutes highlighted the problem of low US inflation.

Spot gold prices rose around 0.2 percent to $ 1,292.91 an ounce. Total gold price increase from the previous trading session reached 0.3 percent. Meanwhile, gold futures for December delivery climbed as much as 0.6 percent to $ 1,296.10 per troy ounce.

Policy makers at the Fed, according to minutes of the FOMC meeting held on 19-20 September 2017, are engaged in a rather tough debate in determining the prospect of rising inflation. They also discussed possible problems when the Fed rate hike was forced to slow down.

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Gold prices were observed to decline in Asian trading session Tuesday morning. Where geopolitical tensions and rising demand for physical gold in India failed to shore up gold prices, due to high prospects of rising US interest rates.

 

Spot Gold which is XAU / USD observed to fall around 0.17% to around 1292.82 this morning, having briefly reached above the 1300.00 threshold last night. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue, but fears have subsided. Iraqi Government troops occupy the Kirkuk region to prevent the independence of the Kurds.

 

On the other hand, US officials are throwing up rhetoric to quell the trumpet due to Trump's attempt to deny Iran's nuclear deal, insisting that the US is not intending to break out of the deal.

 

From the United States, expectations of rate hikes at the end of the year, again came to a boil after the market examined Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellen's comments. Although last weekend's US inflation report tended to be sluggish, Yellen confirmed that the central bank would still raise interest rates.

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Gold prices continue depressed throughout this week. AU / USD on Asian session Thursday morning (19 / October) has minus 0.22% to $ 1278.15. In addition to the easing of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula, the decline in gold prices has also been caused by market unease awaiting the election of the new US central bank chief.

 

According to a Reuters report yesterday, President Donald Trump has pocketed five names of the next FED lead candidate, Janet Yellen (current Chairman of the FED, dovish), Gary Cohn (President Donald Trump's chief economic adviser and Director of the National Economic Council, unknown), Kevin Warsh (Politician, FED Board Member 2006-2011, hawkish), Jerome Powell (Member of FED Board of Governors since 2012, neutral), and John Taylor (Stanford University economist, hawkish). Trump is likely to announce its final choice before a state visit to Asia in early November.

 

Meanwhile, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Annual Conference in Barcelona just ended yesterday. As in previous years, conference participants announced the forecast of how much gold will cost during the next annual conference. Although the prediction is often missed, but not infrequently also the position of gold prices were skyrocketing well above the forecast.

 

This time, conference participants expect the gold price to rise to $ 1369 an ounce when the conference is held in Boston next year, or 6.6% from the benchmark Tuesday afternoon at $ 1284.75. However, according to BullionVault, this prediction is one percent lower than the average forecast price on the last ten LBMA conferences.

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Gold prices slipped in Asian trading session Friday morning , after briefly surged last night following a surprise statement from the Governor of the Central Bank of China. Currently, the market is still tossed between global risks and US economic conditions are prime and conducive to boost interest rates again.

 

the Gold price for December delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange has slipped 0.31% to $ 1,286.01 per troy ounce. Gold Spot XAU / USD decreased 0.48% to 1283.94 per troy ounce.

 

Gold prices jumped moments following the circulation of Zhou's statement. However, again ran after a number of US economic data brings a brilliant profile.The Philadelphia FED Manufacturers Index in October jumped to 27.9, well above expectations of 22.0 as well as the previous record period at 23.8. 

 

The Labor Department also reported that the filing of Jobless Claims for the week ended on October 13 amounted to only 222,000, lower than the 240,000 forecast and the previous week's record of 244,000.

 

The data held off market sentiment on Gold in negative territory, due to strong growth prospects and rising interest rates in the United States. Moreover, President Donald Trump is still expected to vote for a hawkish-centered central bank.

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World gold spot price fell again on Tuesday afternoon in European trading session, while the dollar was somewhat stagnant in the last two days, trading in a tight range amid the possibility of a preliminary announcement of the next US Federal Reserve

 

Spot gold stabilized at $ 1,278.25 an ounce on the afternoon this afternoon, after briefly hitting its lowest level since October 6 at $ 1,271.86 in the previous session. Nothing will really spur a big sell-off for gold, perhaps people are anxious about Trump's early announcement of the Fed's seat.

 

The dollar briefly slipped against a basket of major currencies and the Japanese yen, after rising to more than three-month highs against the yen, as market attention shifted to who would become the next Fed chairman.

 

While analysts' opinions on the condition are good enough, gold in the upside will break the resistance at $ 1,283 an ounce and rise to $ 1,289 - $ 1.295. But it seems that in the range of $ 1,260 to $ 1,290 for the next few days is a realistic number.

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 Gold prices slipped again last weekend, although the main futures exchanges in the United States are closed for Thanksgiving holidays, though after closing down to around $ 1288 in late Friday trading, Gold Spot of XAU/USD Monday this morning (27 / November) to $ 1289.66 per ounce.

 

Market concerns remain focused on US central bank plans to raise interest rates in December, while diplomatic tensions between Turkey and the US continue to deteriorate. Janet Yellen, chairman of the incumbent Federal Reserve, has tended to make cautious comments in recent times. Her speeches, including those to be delivered in the coming days ahead of the US Parliament, are not expected to affect much of the US dollar.

 

In addition, this week Republican representatives in the US Senate will seek to pass the Tax Reform plan, amid divisions within the party's own body and fierce opposition with representatives of the Democratic party. If successfully launched, the Tax Reform is expected to short-term flow of economic growth and boost inflation.

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Gold prices fell to a five-month low in late trading today after triggered by expectations of an increase in interest rates, which is expected to occur this week and look for clues about further gains from the Federal Reserve.

 

LLG Spot gold prices fell about 0.1 percent to $ 1,240.64 per ounce, after reaching its lowest level since July 20 at $ 1,235.92. Meanwhile, the price of U.S. gold futures for February delivery fell $ 5.20, or 0.4 percent, at $ 1,241.70 an ounce.

 

The global market still seems to be eyeing the U.S. central bank's two-day meeting. for clues about the Fed's future rate path. Gold is currently observed quite sensitive to the rise in interest rates. as this increases the opportunity cost of holding up the non-yielding gold and raising the dollar.

 

Analysts expect that gold will likely recover quickly from recent lows if the outcome of the meeting proves to be a small rise. In broader markets, world stocks stopped following a three-session rise in a row, while the dollar strengthened.

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Gold prices jumped on Wednesday night's trading, in keeping with persistent US inflation data at low levels and blurring the impact of an interest rate hike announced by its Federal Reserve. Gold Spot (XAU / USD) jumped from 1244.49 at the end of Tuesday to 1255.40 in late trading.

 

On Thursday morning (14 / December), XAU / USD is still climbing again by 0.13% to 1257.19. Therefore, Gold is sensitive to higher interest rates as they push bond yields, reducing the attractiveness of non-yielding gold. They also tend to boost the dollar, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.

 

Yellen's successor, Fed Governor Jerome Powell, has hinted that he has a cautious approach to raise the rate of increase. A lot of analysts seems to expect gold prices to rise if the weakening US dollar continues. Gold prices are expected to move within the range of Resistance between $ 1,257- $ 1,260

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Gold prices edged up, holding near a two-week high, after US Q3 gross domestic product data and unemployment claims were unexpectedly analysts, leaving traders' view of a stable economy unchanged and the overall dollar steady.

 

U.S. Treasury Returns falling on Thursday, after data on GDP and unemployment. It reversed from Wednesday's gains to a nine-month high with optimism that the U.S. tax law will help boost growth and keep pace with rising economic data. Increased bond yields tend to lift the dollar and suppress the appeal of non-yielding gold.

 

The spot gold price of LLG ended up 0.08 percent at $ 1,266.36 an ounce, rising for the fifth consecutive session and reaching its highest level since December 6 at $ 1.268.26 in previous trading. While U.S. gold futures ended up 0.08 percent at $ 1,270.60.

 

Analysts further expect that gold prices will be weak potentially with the strength of Wall Street and if the strengthening of the US dollar continues. Gold prices are expected to move within the Resistance range between $ 1.268- $ 1.270.

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Gold prices continued to rally since mid-December to reach the highest level last month on trading session this Thursday morning (28 / December). XAU / USD has risen 0.1% from its opening price towards 1288.47. Among the factors behind the current market movement, including the depreciation of US Dollar and increased purchases of gold ahead of Lunar New Year.

The rise in the price of gold this time is mainly due to the weakening US Dollar that occurred even though Tax reform law was passed. In addition to the tax cuts provided are not as good as expectations, the market also anticipates a swelling budget deficit of USD 1.4 trillion in the next decade that is expected to be generated by the legislation

In a release last night, Pending Home Sales data MoM in November showed a rise in contracts for new home construction by 0.2%. This figure is higher than expectations at -0.4%, but lower than the 3.5% growth recorded in the previous period. While the CB Consumer Confidence Index in December only reached 122.1, lower than the estimate set at 128.0.

Precious metals prices are also supported by an increase in purchases ahead of Chinese New Year celebrations in mid-February 2018, particularly in the region of China which is one of the world's largest Gold consumers.

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Gold prices posted a rise in closing prices for the 16th consecutive week on Friday night, after the release of NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) data showed a worse US labor market performance than earlier expectations. In early Asian trade this morning XAUUSD again rise around 0.03% to 1320.78, having briefly slipped from above 1322  in the seconds ahead of the NFP data release.

According to the US Department of Labor, it is only able to create 148,000 jobs in the Non-Farm sector in December 2017. That figure is well below expectations that were previously pegged at 190,000. Will, the release was responded to by various market participants, because Non Farm Payroll for the November period was revised up.

Over the next week, traders will return to present economic data from the US, which have an important impact on the gold market. In particular, inflation-related data and a speech by central bank officials could provide clues about the following US rate hikes. If interest rates increase and the US Dollar appreciates, then it could weigh on the price of Gold ahead.