Gold Fundamental Analysis

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Gold prices hit a trading 3.5 months at the end of the weekend early Saturday (25/02) as the US dollar reached one-week low after the statement of the US treasury secretary.

LLG Spot gold prices rose by 0.63 percent at $ 1,257.21 per ounce, after touching the highest since Nov. 11 at $ 1,258.45 earlier in the session. US gold futures prices rose $ 6.90 percent to $ 1,258.30.

Finance Minister Steven Mnuchin said on Thursday that the government policy of US President Donald Trump would probably only a limited impact this year, although he would like to see tax reform in August. The comments indicate much work is still needed on a tax plan that Mnuchin touted as a top priority, and that investors expect will drive growth and inflation this year.

This week the precious metal rose about 1.8 percent, largely supported by easing expectations of a US rate hike in March after minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting less hawkish than expected.

Gold holdings in the world's largest-backed ETF, New York's SPDR Gold Trust, has risen more than 5 percent this month on geopolitical risks. Analysts estimated that the price of gold could potentially stronger by weakening the US dollar at the weekend.

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Gold prices recovered in late trading Tuesday morning (28/02) after dipping earlier in response to comments Robert Kaplan who expect a hike in US interest rates sooner, but wait speech Trump and European political uncertainty offset the bearish sentiment. Kaplan, member voting on the Fed's policy committee, reiterated his view that a rate hike should be faster.

 

The Fed is scheduled to hold the next monetary policy meeting on March 14 with the possibility of higher interest rates high enough to keep investors interested. Market expectations for a rate hike in March about 50 percent, according to Fed funds futures.

 

LLG spot gold price was up 0.03 percent at $ 1,256.95 per ounce. metal hit its highest since Nov. 11 at $ 1,260.10 in the previous session. US gold futures prices rose 50 cents to settle at $ 1,258.80.

 

Investors were also awaiting details of the policies of President Donald Trump. What Trump convey might be important for the gold. If Trump announced significant fiscal easing, which would increase inflation expectations and caused investors to look for gold. The US central bank meets March 14 to 15, although most of the increase in interest rates is expected to be postponed until the June meeting.

 

Bets on higher prices can be seen in the data from the CFTC showed hedge funds and money managers hold net long positions in COMEX larger gold hit its highest in nearly three months in the week to February 21.

 

Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange ETF, New York's SPDR Gold Trust, also rose more than 5 percent this month. So the estimation that the price of gold could potentially weak with the strength of Wall Street. The gold price is expected to move within the support range between $ 1.255 - $ 1.253

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Gold prices slumped weakest since December at the end of trade on Friday morning (03/03) strengthening US dollar pressured by rising expectations of US rate hike in March following positive US economic data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials.

 

LLG Spot gold prices fell 1.39 percent at $ 1,231.56 per ounce, on track for its biggest daily fall of since December 15. US gold futures prices ended 1.45 percent weaker at $ 1,231.90. Futures for April delivery ended at $ 1,232.90, down $ 17.10.

 

Gold hit after data on Thursday showed US jobless claims fell to the lowest level in 44 years. Tightening labor, combined with rising inflation, could push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its policy meeting March 14 to 15.

 

Fed Chairman Janet Yellen and Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer will speak on Friday, the possibility of providing further signals on the US central bank's policy. ABN Amro raised the gold price forecast end of 2017 for $ 200 to $ 1,300 on Thursday, but said prices will likely consolidate until turned higher at the end of the year.

 

Analysts estimated that the price of gold may weaken limited by strengthening expectations of a US interest rate hike this March. The gold price is expected to move within the supoprt range between $ 1.230 - $ 1.228

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Gold prices fell for a third session in a row at the end of trading on Tuesday morning (07/03), pressured by comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen that reinforce expectations of rising US interest rates this month.

 

LLG Spot gold prices fell about 0.6 percent at $ 1,226.61 per ounce, after sliding on Friday to $ 1,222.51, the lowest since February 15. Meanwhile, US gold futures prices ended down 0.08 percent to $ 1,225.50.

 

Yellen said last week that the Fed is ready to raise interest rates if the US employment and inflation data increases. The comment was seen as strengthening plan for a rate hike at the Fed's meeting on March 14 to 15.

 

Standard Chartered estimates expect three interest rate hikes in 2017 and two in 2018. This year in March, June and December. Physical gold holdings in exchange-traded funds have fallen since last week, partly due to a stronger dollar, but at 54.855 million ounces still more than 3 percent higher than the beginning of February.

 

So many analysts right now estimated that Gold price has chance to weaken limited if US Dollar this evening continue to strengthening by the impact of its positive sentiments. The gold price is expected to move within the support range between $ 1.225 - $ 1.223.

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Gold prices rose at the end of the weekend trade late on Saturday (20/05) and were on track for its best week in five years as US dollar weakened triggered by political turmoil in United States.

 

Gold spot price rose 0.65% to $ 1,254.63 per ounce. For the weekly one, spot gold prices rose 1.9% , fueled by increased safe-haven demand and political turmoil in the US and Korean peninsula. While the price of U.S. gold futures rose 80 cents to settle at $ 1,253.60 an ounce.

 

Donald Trump last week sacked FBI Director James Comey, sparking a political upheaval that culminated on Wednesday at the Justice Department, which appointed special advisers to investigate possible links between Russia and the 2016 Trump presidential campaign.

 

Analysts said that safe-haven purchases have provided strong support for gold prices over the past six months. And with increasing geopolitical risks in the U.S. And elsewhere tend to push prices even higher, despite an interest rate hike in the US next month.

 

Analysts also expect the next gold price will look at the movement of US dollar. This morning, US dollar was observed to move strongly, this could potentially depress the price of gold. But if the US and global political turmoil rise again, it can lift the price of gold.

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Gold prices rose for a second straight day in late trading Friday (23/06) as weaker sentiment in oil prices boosted safe-haven demand as gold, with a weaker US dollar and US Treasury yields also providing support.

 

Spot gold prices rose 0.17 percent to $ 1,248.18 per ounce. Gold rose 0.3 percent in the previous session, the biggest intraday percentage change since June 6. U.S. Meanwhile, Gold futures prices For August delivery rose around $ 3.60, settling at $ 1,249.40.

 

Analysts say the softer and biased US Dollar at risk following recent declines in crude oil to make gold turn higher in Asian hours on Thursday. Analysts expect gold prices to potentially rise if the weakening US dollar and crude oil continue. The price of gold is expected to move within the resistance range between $ 1,250- $ 1,252

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Gold prices fell at the end of trading late Friday (30/06) after affected by several global central bank plans to ease their monetary policy loosening which pushed bond yields higher.

 

Spot gold prices (LLG) fell 0.19 percent at $ 1,246.42 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures. For August settled at $ 1245.80 per ounce, down $ 3.3. But the decline stalled further helped by the weakening US dollar which fell to its lowest position for this year.

 

Gold is very sensitive to rising interest rates, which increases the opportunity cost of holding back the non-yielding gold. However, gains in the dollar, offsetting the impact of higher yields to keep the gold rangebound.

 

The central bank's hawkish comments this week signaled an era of financial easing, which helped gold hit a record high of $ 1,920.30 an ounce in 2011, possibly coming more than what is happening in the United States.

 

Analysts estimated that Gold price still potentially rose triggered by the weakening US dollar and Wall Street. The price of gold is expected to move within the range of Resistance between $ 1,248- $ 1,250

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Gold price rose after minutes from a June Federal Reserve meeting showed Fed officials were ready to reduce the $ 4.5 billion bond-side balance of payments to boost the economy during and after the financial crisis.

 

The spot gold price rose 0.15 percent to 1,225.41 after initially dropping around 0.21 percent after the announcement. US gold futures for August delivery ended at $ 1,221.70, up $ 2.50.

 

A stronger US dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies and higher bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding unproductive gold. The rise in interest rates meanwhile higher bond yields and tend to push the dollar.

 

Analysts said if the minutes of the Fed meeting confirm that they hold on to their views on the economy and higher interest rate projections, this will not help the gold market. In addition, it is estimated that gold prices will likely rise with the emergence of doubts of interest rate hikes after Fed officials are divided into approval of US interest rate hike, because the price is predicted to move in the range between $ 1,227- $ 1,229.

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Gold prices fell to their lowest level in nearly five months at the end of the weekend trading late Saturday after stronger-than-expected Non Farm Payrolls data lifted the greenback.

 

The spot gold price of LLG slumped about 1.0 percent towards $ 1,212.79 an ounce. While US gold futures for August contract fell 1.1 percent and the price settled at $ 1,209.70 an ounce, reaching levels not seen since March 15.

 

The precious metal also posted its fifth consecutive weekly loss, its longest decline since December. The weekly gold price dipped 0.56 percent. Gold weakening triggered the strengthening US dollar and 10-year US bond yield increase.

 

Central banks around the world have signaled their intention to tighten monetary policy in the near future. The minutes of the European Central Bank meeting in June showed officials discussing their biased shift from easing to neutral. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is worried that current monetary policy poses a risk to the U.S. economy.

 

Many analysts expect that the gold prices to potentially rise with bargain hunting after the gold prices slump at weekends and expect at weekly trend. Gold price is expected to move within the resistance range at around $ 1.215- $ 1.217.

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Gold prices weakened at the end of trading Friday dawn (14/07) triggered by the strengthening of global exchanges. But losses are capped by a weaker dollar and U.S. bond yields. The lower provides support.

 

Spot gold prices LLG fell 0.12 percent to $ 1,217.98 per ounce. U.S. gold futures For August delivery fell at $ 1,217.30 per ounce. The MSCI world index hit a record high for the fourth time in less than a month as investors regarded Yellen's remarks as a green light for risk-taking.

 

Many Analysts estimated gold prices move weak triggered the strengthening of Wall Street. Tonight will also look at a lot of US economic data such as inflation, Retail Sales, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, industrial production, which if strengthen the US dollar will push the price of gold.

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Gold prices rose in late trade on Friday morning (21/07) after the European Central Bank's reaffirmation of the ultra-loose policy boosted the euro strengthened against US dollar. ECB kept interest rates at record lows and ensure the asset purchase program will continue on the 60 billion euro ($ 69.15 billion) per month at least until December and can be extended or expanded if deemed necessary.

 

Spot gold prices of LLG rose around 0.22 percent to $ 1,243.15 per ounce. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures prices For August delivery ended at $ 1,245.50 per ounce. The ultra-low interest rate that has survived since the global financial crisis of the past decade has been a key factor supporting the price of gold in recent years.

 

Analysts expected that for the next session the gold prices will move weaker with profit-taking. But if the US dollar continues to weaken it will lift prices. The price of gold is expected to move within the support range between $ 1,241.00- $ 1,239.00.

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Gold prices soared to touch a two-month high on Thursday amid mounting tensions between US and North Korean leaders who exchanged threats. Conditions then encourage investors to leave risky assets, switch to safe heaven like Gold.

 

Heating up tensions in the region after North Korea on Thursday again launched a plan to launch a missile near Guam island waters - a US military base in the Pacific - as if replying to President Trump's threat that had previously said Pyongyang would face unprecedented "Fire and Anger" If it continues to threaten the US.

 

Spot Gold traded at $ 1,284.68 an ounce, extending a bullish trend in the previous day's trading session where this yellow precious metal surged around 1.4 percent on Wednesday. Meanwhile, US Gold futures for December delivery rose about 0.6 percent at $ 1,287.3 an ounce.

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Gold prices rose to their highest level in two months in late trading Friday (11/08) after the United States and North Korea exchanged threats, prompting investors to buy gold as a safe-haven asset.

 

The spot gold price of LLG rose around 0.59 percent towards $ 1,284.70 an ounce, the highest since June 9. Gold rose 1.3 percent in the previous session, the biggest gain since mid-May. While U.S. gold futures prices For December delivery ended at $ 1,290.10 per ounce.

 

Gold rose after data showed U.S. producer prices Unexpectedly dropped in July, posted its biggest drop in almost a year and pointed to further inflationary slowdown that could delay the Federal Reserve's rate hike. Market awaits U.S. consumer inflation data On Friday that will offer more clues about future Fed decisions.

 

Many analysts expect that gold prices to rise as US-North geopolitical tensions mount and a weaker US dollar if it continues. The price of gold is expected to move within the resistance range between $ 1,288.00- $ 1,291.00.

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Gold prices slipped in the trading session Monday in this afternoon session. The precious metal was dragged down from a two-month high amid geopolitical conflicts between United States Of America and North Korea.

 

The looming impetus for gold today is the impact of the slackening of US-North Korean tensions, especially after US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson have stated that the Trump Administration will solve this problem using diplomatic approaches.

 

In addition, Director of Central Intelligence Agency, Mike Pompeo, and US National Security Adviser, H.R. McMaster, said there was no indication of war with North Korea. The relieving comments from the authorities promptly eased the panic markets caused by President Donald Trump's remarks over the weekend.

 

This afternoon, the price of gold appears to be moving downwards. On the Comex, gold futures are down by $ 1.80 or about 0.1 percent and are trading at $ 1,292.18 per troy ounce. While in the chart XAU / USD gold price seems to have dipped to the level of $ 1,280.84.

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Gold prices slipped early in the trading session Tuesday this morning and seemed stable at low levels this afternoon. The cooling North and US tensions have made investors brave to abandon their safe-haven assets, to turn back to riskier assets like equities.

 

Spot gold prices declined 0.5 percent to $ 1,275.79 per troy ounce, at 10:15 pm. Gold futures for December delivery slid to $ 1,281.40 a troy ounce. In the XAU / USD chart, gold prices seem to occupy the 1274,000. Kim Jong Un finally decided to postpone the missile shooting and chose to see American action first. In other words, the launch of the missile is temporarily canceled.

 

In addition, comments from New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley also made the US Dollar more attractive. The FOMC permanent member expressed his support for continued US rate hikes this year, as long as the economy supports. No doubt, the sheen of gold was fading away because of it.

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Gold futures on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange resumed declines on Tuesday, following stronger-than-expected US retail sales and manufacturing figures. US national retail sales in July increased by 0.6 percent, better than forecast a 0.4 percent surge.

 

Analysts said the increase is the highest this year, possibly driven by strong demand for new vehicles and special "Prime Day" deals in the Amazon.

 

The most-active gold contract for December delivery fell 10.7 dollars or 0.83 percent to settle at 1,279.70 dollars an ounce. According to another report released on Tuesday, the New York Federal Reserve's Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped 15 points to 25.2, reaching its highest level in almost three years.

 

Stronger economic data weighed on "safe-haven" gold, which was one of the heaviest losses in five weeks. Gold is under increasing pressure from further easing of geopolitical tensions between Washington and Pyongyang, as the US dollar continues to strengthen.

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Gold prices showed only a minimal movement, although incised a rise in early trading session Monday (21 / August) this afternoon. Investors are still waiting for further clues to determine the direction of the precious metal, especially after weeks of political uncertainty last week. In addition, gold traders are also awaiting the outcome of a meeting of top world central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA.

 

Spot gold prices rose 0.1% to $ 1,286.01 an ounce at 13:40 am today. Meanwhile, US gold futures for December delivery were flat at $ 1,291.70 a troy ounce. On the other hand, ANTAM gold price is traded at Rp602,000 per gram, with buyback price Rp538,000 per gram.

 

Daniel Hynes, an analyst at ANZ, said that Yellen Fed's speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming this weekend, could potentially become a market mover for gold. Gold is very sensitive to the issue of rising US interest rates. Thus, if Yellen alludes to it in the later symposium, the spot gold price may retreat to the support of $ 1,271 per ounce.

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Gold prices slipped in Asian session Tuesday, well ahead of this afternoon, after US President Donald Trump announced the drafting of a strategy to keep US troops in Afghanistan after 16 years of military intervention in the region. Although Trump promises a more pragmatic approach to supporting the Kabul government and will work with Pakistan, the gold price responds to it flatly.

 

The price of gold futures for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile slipped 0.17 percent to $ 1,294.51 an ounce. Meanwhile, spot gold prices slipped 0.1 percent to $ 1,289.77 an ounce

 

Nevertheless, the rise in gold not long, because today back slipped ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium held in Wyoming, USA. The US dollar was steady ahead of the crucial economic event, awaiting Fed Chairman Janet Yellen's speech, which is expected to provide additional clues about continued US interest rate hikes this year.

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Gold prices did not show significant changes in the trading session on Friday (25 / August) . Investors are still awaiting direct directions from statements by central bankers in Wyoming tonight.

 

Spot gold prices moved flat at $ 1,286 an ounce, after falling about 0.3 percent from the previous session. Meanwhile, the price of gold futures for December delivery was flat at around $ 1,291.40 per troy ounce.

 

Although the market does not really expect a new policy from Yellen and Draghi, they still expect a clue about monetary policy and interest rates. Bullion is a precious metal that is very sensitive to the development of US interest rates.

 

Political uncertainty is still high and continues to provide a high level of support for gold prices, "said Daniel Hynes of ANZ." The uncertainty that analysts refer to is about the US president, the threat of Government Shutdown and the deadline of Debt Ceiling. "Gold is an asset used as a safe Haven amid political and financial uncertainty.

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Gold prices soared to its highest level in a week on Monday (28 / August) this. The US Dollar's losses due to investor disappointment over the Fed Chairman's speech at the central bank conference in Wyoming are the basis for the strengthening of gold and Euro prices.

 

Spot gold rose 0.5 percent towards $ 1,297 an ounce, after touching a high since Aug. 18 at $ 1.298 earlier. In previous sessions, gold had gained up 0.4 percent. Meanwhile, gold futures for December delivery rose 0.14 percent to $ 1,299.66 a troy on the Comex Division, NYMEX.

 

According to analysts, Yellen and Draghi gave an ambiguous impression of monetary policy in his speech in Jackson Hole yesterday. Therefore, the market uses it as the reason for the emergence of uncertainty, thus raising the price of gold. Moreover, the price of gold could reach $ 1,300 per ounce this week, as long as demand for safe-haven is still high. The main issue is the development of relations between the US and North Korea and US developments with NAFTA.

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Gold prices soared to a nine and a half month high this morning, responding to geopolitical tensions caused by the North Korean missile launch (North Korea). North Korea missile release this time across the territory of Japan, causing unrest for the Japanese people. PM Shinzo Abe even said if he agrees with US President, Donald Trump, to increase pressure on Kim Jong Un's country.

 

The geopolitical turmoil sparked demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and Japanese Yen. The US dollar and equities were weakened as a result. Spot gold prices rose 0.5 percent to $ 1,316.66 an ounce this morning. Previously, spot gold prices have reached the figure of $ 1,322.33. The precious metal has gained 1.4 percent in the previous session. Meanwhile, the price of gold futures on the NYMEX for December delivery rose 0.5 percent to $ 1,322.20.

 

South Korea and Japan confirmed that the North Korean missile launched earlier this morning had landed in the east of Hokkaido waters. The missile also briefly hovered over the northern islands of Japan. This certainly makes the missile crossed the country even though North Korea's goal is actually US territory in Guam.

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Gold prices remained under intense gains despite easing from near 11-month highs on Tuesday as the dollar eased some of its weakness but geopolitical uncertainties limited the momentum of the downturn.

 

Gold futures for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $ 3.98, or 0.30%, to $ 1,319.31 a troy ounce. Gold prices rose more than 1% to an almost 11-month high of $ 1,331.18 after North Korea fired a missile that flew over Japan on Monday, sparking flight safety among investors, lifting demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.

 

But the rally did not last long as traders appeared to take profits on this precious metals surge to multi-month highs, following a rebound in the dollar on better-than-expected consumer confidence data.

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Gold prices dropped in Asia on Thursday with a series of regional data that helped sentiment and focus on turning to the expected battle to get a tax cut approved in the US that would likely impact feeding policies if successful.

 

The official Manufacturers Purchasing Managers index in China totaled 51.7 in August, beating expectations, data released on Thursday showed. Also In Australia, private new capital spending for the second quarter jumped 0.8%, well above the 0.3% rise seen and private sector credit for July came in as expected, up 0.5%

 

Gold futures for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.52% to $ 1,307.27 a troy ounce. In Japan, temporary industrial production data for July fell 0.8%, more than the expected 0.5% decline.

 

The decline in gold prices contrasted with an increase in purchasing activity among financial managers, after net bullion in gold rose to its highest level in nine months, according to a report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) last week. Some analysts believe gold will continue climbing higher in the near term but remain concerned about the long-term direction as its technical prospects are "very cloudy".

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Gold prices stabilized on Thursday (07 / Sept) from early trading session until this afternoon. Weak US Dollar is still a supporter of the strengthening of gold prices. In addition, the market is also looking forward to the results of the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting (ECB) which will be announced later in the evening.

 

Spot gold traded at $ 1,344 per troy ounce and observed to be slacking around 0.3 percent from the previous trading session. Meanwhile, the price of gold futures on the Comex, for December delivery was flat at around $ 1339.50.

 

Meanwhile, US Dollar itself still has no energy to overthrow the Euro until this afternoon. The ECB is expected to start delivering a scheme on the withdrawal of its monetary stimulus. The odds in this week's geopolitical tension are very high. If North Korea re-launches missile tests, then risk aversion sentiment could be triggered again and Gold will gain the profit from this issue.

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Gold prices are trading at a one-year high in Friday afternoon trading. The weak US Dollar on the back of disappointing US economic data is still the main proponent of the strengthening of gold to date, in addition to risk aversion action in relation to the geopolitical turmoil triggered by North Korea.

 

On the Comex, the price of gold futures for December delivery rose as much as $ 9.95 or about 0.74 percent towards 1,360.34 per troy ounce. This level is the highest for gold futures since August 2016.

 

According to analysts, the weaker-than-expected US economic data has raised market doubts about the sustainability of US interest rate hikes. This condition causes gold to continue to rally because both have a correlation relationship upside down.