Gold Fundamental Analysis

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Gold prices fell slightly in late morning trading Tuesday, after hitting a one-week low on Monday, with the emergence of new expectations of US rate hike after data is non farm payrolls were stronger than expected. US job creation rose more than expected for the second consecutive month in July and wages rise, reinforcing expectations of faster economic growth, and increases the probability of the Federal Reserve interest rate hikes this year.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 255,000 after an upwardly revised 292,000 jobs in June, with broad-based employment creation in all economic sectors, the Labor Department said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls increased by 180,000 in July.

Analysis of the potential price of gold will rise with Wall Street weakness that could affect the weakening global stock markets. But if sentiment rise in US interest rates continue to be strong will suppress the price of gold. Gold prices are forecast to exceed the range of 1.3386 to 1.3404, and if the weak price will penetrate the range from 1.3342 to 1.3322.

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The movement of Gold showing a good sentiment, the price is rallying and again able to break through the 2 resistance levels today and seems will trying to break another resistance level considering that USD condition is weakening against all of its rivals.

 

Technically XAUUSD could rise to the price between 1356.365 - 1366.134, but if the price again cannot reach the lowest or up to highest level of that price then XAUUSD will easily fall down to around 1330.579. The support level for today is 1319.79 and resistance level is at 1368.010.

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The movement of XAU is down after opened  higher at 1346.808 in early trading, the rolling price of XAUUSD is at 1342.557 now. Gold prices opened strong Asian session fell back by profit-taking after three consecutive days the market price of gold rises steadily.

 

However, prices may rise again during the New York session against US Dollar if the solid data fell short of expectations as the data unemployment claims and import prices.

 

Technically XAUUSD can only rose to around 1350.070 -1358.574 if the gold price correction is not achieved between 1337.800- 1329,770 range. So  it is argued that the normal range XAUUSD pair today is expected to have the support level at 1319.393 and resistance levels at 1368,012.

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Gold spot price was down around 0.6 percent at 1338 per ounce in late trade on Friday morning after pressed by US which is stronger and the strengthening of Wall Street which touched a record high intraday trading, despite the uncertainty over the outlook of US monetary policy to prevent further losses this precious metal, while the price of US gold futures for December delivery closed down 0.1 percent at 1350 per ounce.

 

The price of gold has risen 27% so far this year, largely on expectations that the US Federal Reserve will delay further interest rate hikes. A Reuters poll showed that the Fed may raise rates in December after the presidential election. San Francisco Fed President John Williams said this week that the central bank should raise interest rates further this year.

 

Analysis for today is the price of gold would potentially rise if the slowdown in global economic growth to be realized. However, it should be observed that if the US dollar continues to strengthen could suppress the gold price. Gold prices are forecast to exceed the resistance range between 1340- 1342, and if the price drops will penetrate Support ranges from 1336 to 1334.

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Gold prices rose in late trading Tuesday morning earlier supported by the weakening of US dollar due to the waning expectations that US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year. US economic data Friday showed retail sales unexpectedly flat in July, signaling a weakening in consumer spending.

 

The US dollar fell 0.1 percent against a basket of currencies, while Wall Street stocks rose to a record high on expectations for further monetary policy easing over the world. Lower US dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies.

 

Spot gold prices rose 0.26 percent at $ 1,339.22 per ounce. The precious metal rose as much as 1.3 percent after data on Friday, before giving up gains. While the price of gold US gold futures closed up 0.3 percent at $ 1,347.50.

 

Gold analysis for today is Gold price would be potentially weakened by the strengthening of Wall Street that has the potential to encourage the strengthening of global exchanges. Gold prices are forecast to exceed the range between $ 1,337- $ 1.335, and if the price rises will penetrate the range between $ 1,341- $ 1.343.

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The price of gold since the Asian session until the opening of the European markets this afternoon continued to move the market weakened by profit taking after two consecutive days before the rally. The fall in the price of gold these days due to the strengthening value of the US dollar responds hawkish comments New York Fed President William Dudley stated that the US economy has developed into a condition that can make a rate hike early next month.

 

Technically XAUUSD may decline further to around 1337.34 -1328.59, but if it is not until these ranges can be corrected back 1352.60- 1360.70 range. So the normal range XAUUSD pair today is expected to have the support level at 1315.72 and resistance level at 1365.53.

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Gold is moving steady in late trade on Thursday morning, after the release of US Federal minutes of the July meeting which showed policy makers expect the central bank interest rate hike soon, but still waiting for more data. The Minutes showed that members of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed is generally optimistic about the US economy and the labor market, but some said the slowdown in hiring would oppose the increase in the short term.

Spot gold was up 0.03 percent at 1346.11 per ounce. It has fallen 0.6 percent to 1337.22 shortly after the minutes were released. US gold futures prices ended up 0.6 percent at 1348.80 per ounce before the news.

It is estimated that the price of gold will potentially rise by sentiment decline in expectations of rising US interest rates after the Fed meeting minutes release. Gold prices are expected to penetrate the resistance range between 1348- 1350.

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Gold prices rose in late trade on Friday morning, supported by a weakening US dollar after minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting in July showed a dovish signal to the rise in US interest rates.

 

Member rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed is generally optimistic about the US economy and the labor market, but some said the slowdown in hiring future will oppose the increase in the short term.

 

Spot gold prices rose 0.33 percent at $ 1,352.61 per ounce, on track for fourth consecutive day of gains, while Gold Futures rose around 0.67 cent to $ 1,357.80 per ounce.

 

On Thursday, the New York Fed President William Dudley said the last two months of job growth "helped ease concerns that emerged earlier this year that job growth began to slow. But Dudley did not comment on his remarks earlier this week that the Fed might raise rates in September.

 

Gold price will potentially rise by sentiment decline in expectations of rising US interest rates after the Fed meeting minutes release. Gold prices are forecast to exceed the range of $ 1,355- $ 1.357, and if the price drops will penetrate the range of $ 1,351- $ 1.349.

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Gold price on Asian session is still cheaper than the trading price of the weekend by the rise of the expectations of a Fed rate hike further strengthening US dollar. And all day the price of gold will still be a negative move by the strength of US dollar. There is no more fundamental indicator to support but only sentiment which drive XAUUSD down.

 

Technically XAUUSD may decline further to around 1343.82 -1339.40, but if it is not until these ranges can be corrected back up to the range of 1343.82-1351.44. So the normal range between this pair is expected to have the support level at 1318.78 and resistance level at 1357.58.

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Gold prices slumped in late trading Tuesday before dawn, reaching the lowest point two weeks after upbeat comments from Federal Reserve officials on the US economy boosted expectations that US central bank could raise interest rates sooner. Number two at the US Federal Reserve policy makers, Stanley Fischer, said on Sunday the central bank is already close to full employment and inflation target of 2 percent.

 

Spot gold prices fell 0.31 percent at $ 1,337.06 per ounce after hitting a session low of $ 1,331.35, the lowest since Aug. 9. While the price of US gold futures for December delivery settled down $ 2.80, or 0.21 percent, at $ 1,343.40 per ounce, and last traded down 0.38 percent. It estimated that the gold price would potentially go up to the potential weakening global stock markets due to the falling crude oil prices. Gold prices are forecast to exceed the range of $ 1,339- $ 1.341 as Resistance, and if the price drops will penetrate the range of $ 1,335- $ 1.333 as Support.

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Gold price movements in Asian session (05:20:35 GMT / 14:40 GMT) after a weak move opened lower at 1337.75 in early trading now, XAUUSD rolling at 1337.40.

 

The price of gold since the beginning of the Asian session moving consolidated declining trend is still affected by the fundamental strength of the US dollar after the release of economic data overnight. And all day long the dollar is still strong potential to continue by bangkinya Fed rate hike expectations.

 

Technically XAUUSD will continue to fall into the range between 1333.50-1328.35, but if it is not until these ranges can be corrected back up to between 1341.85-1344.81. So  it can be argued that the normal range XAUUSD pair today is expected to have the support level at 1322.21 and resistance level at 1351.44.

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Long black shadow of a speech on Friday in Jackson Hole sparked gold investors to move to the edge and even take action sales. That is the expression of a thought that says Yellen will give a hint that interest rates will be raised sooner the better. However, we are not sure. Yellen, like most other Fed chief before him, holding on to the script of the minutes of the previous meeting.

 

The decline in gold prices yesterday walked with the strengthening dollar makes the price of gold becomes cheaper. However, not all the causes of the decline in gold prices yesterday. There are more bearish tone also affect the decline in gold prices yesterday. West Texas Intermediate crude fell as much as 3% and seeks to recover slightly towards the afternoon trading.

 

With the economy will begin symposium in Jackson Hole Wyoming tonight, all eyes focused on US dollar. After raising interest rates for the first time in a decade in 2015, the Fed became a bit quiet. However, on this night, expectations began to rise this week in anticipation of a speech that "hawkish" of Yellen in Wyoming.

 

If indeed it is the case, then the price of gold on the resistance could be a point to be seen where there will be a recount of the classic price with market expectations forced to confront the reality is the opposite.

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 Gold has been trading sideways for the past two months with a range that continues to decline. Although the fundamentals support further gains but investment flows show the necessary correction in the short term. From Wednesday until now gold ETF has fallen 1:11% and penetrate the boundary line short-term technical support first. This raises the question whether that will be made by the governor of the Fed Janet Yellen on interest rate on this Friday. Whether he will emit a tone more "hawkish" than many on Wall Street had anticipated?

 

Despite the selling pressure in gold and gold mining on Wednesday, the big picture of the movement of gold prices in the long term of one year remains unchanged. Keep rising. In other words, breaches the trend of decline in gold prices over several years remains unchanged and through the lens of view many weeks / months the yellow metal remains in a consolidation phase.

 

Through the lens of view like this, buy gold on the way down is still reasonable but performed only during a "bullish reversal" per day or per week. So the key is not blindly buy gold only because gold has broken through the basic end of the trading range, but waiting for the release of the signs of fatigue sell and exit signs are clearly visible from a purchase. Line support between $ 1300 and 1315 should be maintained.

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Gold prices fell in late trading weekend early Saturday after the official statement of the US Federal Reserve raised US dollars. Spot gold prices ended down 0.7 percent at $ 1,320.22 an ounce, after earlier rising 1.5 percent to $ 1,341.60. While the price of US gold futures for December delivery fell 0.1 percent at $ 1,323.30.

 

US Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer told CNBC on Friday a decision on whether to raise interest rates have to look forward, not back, and the next jobs report will be examined to determine the US rate hike.Earlier, gold extended gains above 1 percent on Friday, breaking a five-day streak lower after US Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen said the opportunity to raise US interest rates have risen, although the increase should be gradual.

 

Yellen showed improvement in the US labor market and expectations for moderate economic growth, reinforcing the view that such a move could come later this year. However, Yellen did not provide a clear direction as to what the Fed needs to do to raise interest rates.

 

Analyst estimates that gold prices will potentially still weak with the strengthening US dollar. Gold prices are forecast to exceed the range of $ 1,318- $ 1.316 which as as first and second support, and if the price rises will penetrate the range of $ 1,322- $ 1.324 which act as today's resistances.

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Gold price movements of the Asian session (05:00:35 GMT / 12.00) are flat after opening lower at 1323.45 in early trading (0000 GMT), XAUUSD rolling at 1323.40.The price of gold since the beginning of the Asian session much lower by profit-taking after earlier trading had gained by bargain hunting in the anticipation of additional data for Fed rate hikes that NFP data on Friday. 

 

The price of gold is very sensitive to Fed rate hike so that this sentiment will continue to haunt the price of gold. Technically XAUUSD down again to the range of 1317.30-1312.04, But if it is not until these ranges will rise to a range of 1327.80-1333.35. So the normal range XAUUSD pair today is expected to have the support level at 1305.77 and resistance level at 1338.62.

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Gold prices slumped in late trading on Wednesday morning hampered by the strengthening US dollar after Federal Reserve officials give hawkish statements about interest rate hikes, while attention turned to this week's US payrolls data for further clues about the pace of interest rate hikes.

Spot gold prices fell 0.78 percent at $ 1,312.71 per ounce, while gold futures for December delivery ended down $ 10.60 at $ 1,316.50. The US dollar was higher against the euro on Tuesday as investors focused on the next data for US payrolls to see if it supports expectations the Fed will raise interest rates soon.

Employers are expected on Friday to show 180,000 job gains in August, according to a Reuters poll, under the better-than-expected 255,000 increase in July and a 292,000 gain in June. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen said on Friday a chance to level higher interest rates rose, although he did not provide clarity about the timing of the increase. That same day Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer suggested kanikan could come as soon as September.

In an interview on Tuesday, Fischer added that the US labor market is almost at full strength, and said the pace of interest rate hikes by the Fed will depend on how well the economy is doing. Non-farm payrolls on Friday is seen as the key measure of the strength of the US labor market, and could strengthen hawkish message from Yellen and other Fed officials.

It is estimated that the price of gold is still potentially weak with the rumor that there will be a FED hike rates which lifted US dollar's price. Gold prices are forecast to exceed the range in between $ 1,311- $ 1.309 which act as supports, and if the price rises will penetrate the range between $ 1,315- $ 1.317 which act as resistances.

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Gold price movements in Asian session (03:50:35 GM)opened lower at 1308.60 in early trading. Gold prices tried to rebound on Asian session and is higher than the previous trading after two consecutive days experienced selling pressure is quite big.Gold price movements since consolidated by the strong pull of sentiment Fed rate hike signals the end last week and concerns about NFP data which supporting tomorrow. 

It seems that XAUUSD fall again to the range between 1305.30-1300.04.But if it is not until that range will go up again to the top of the range at 1312.80 So the normal range XAUUSD pair today is expected to have the support level at 1292.83 and resistance level at 1327.48.

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Gold prices rebounded after falling to its lowest level in more than two months in late morning trade on Friday helped by dollar weakness and investors waited to see if the US jobs figures could put the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates.  The US dollar index weakened 0.36 percent against a basket of currencies after slumping US manufacturing data.

 

Spot gold prices hit the lowest level since June 24 at $ 1,301.91 per ounce, before ending up tot $ 1,313.55. While the price of gold futures closed up $ 5.70 at $ 1,317.10 and was last up $ 5.50 to $ 1,316.90. Ahead of non-farm payrolls report on Friday is being closely watched for August, US data on Thursday showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose less than expected last week, pointing to sustained strength of the labor market.

 

Upbeat payrolls report will reinforce the view that the US rate hike possibility before the end of this year after Fed Chairman Janet Yellen said on Friday that the opportunity for higher interest rates was strengthened. On Wednesday, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said the Fed should consider that faster interest rate rise from time to time to prevent risk to the economy, while Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said he is increasingly confident that US economic growth has slowed permanently.

 

"Technicals indicate that the price of gold and silver need some corrections and will see some mild rebound. But the jobs data Friday will be important, "said Jiang Shu, chief analyst at the Shandong Gold Group.

 

"If the jobs data will be good, gold will fall to $ 1,260- $ 1.270 level as the market will be hoping for a rate hike in September." . It estimated that the gold price may rise if the US dollar continues to weaken. Tonight will also be released US Non Farm payrolls fell in August , if realized thus will press US dollar. The price of gold is estimated in the range of $ 1,316- $ 1.318  as resistance and if prices rise then it will be between 1,312- $ 1.310 as support.

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Gold prices rose in late trading weekend early Saturday after US job growth came in below expectations, dampening the possibility of interest rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve this September. US nonfarm payrolls rose a slower-than-expected 151,000 in August, against expectations for a 180,000 rise.

Spot gold prices jumped to a session high of $ 1,328.73 after data on non-farm payrolls, and ended up at $ 1,324.94 per ounce. For the week the price of gold is still positive, up 0.33 percent helped by dollar weakness and a weak US NFP offset negative sentiment strengthening US dollar and strong ADP Employment data is exceeded forecasts.

Ole Hansen, analyst at Saxo Bank, told the Reuters Global Gold Forum on Friday. "We still believe that the FOMC remains in rate hike mode but from a 50/50 chance of September (increase), they can now choose to show a rise in interest rates in December instead."

Owners SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell for a third session on Thursday, with 0.57 per cent to 937.89 tons. Physical gold demand in Asia increased slightly this week as the price correction triggers consumers to purchase for the upcoming festival and wedding season, with a discount in India narrowed to the smallest in three months.

It seems that the price of gold may rise with the decline of NFP which further diminish hopes for aUS interest rate hike this September. Yet to be seen if the US dollar continue to strengthen, will depress prices. The price of gold is estimated in the range between $ 1,327- $ 1.329 and if the price falls in the range between $ 1,312- $ 1.310.

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Gold prices rose on Monday as the US dollar slipped triggered easing of expectations of rising US interest rates as soon as the data the US Non Farm Payrolls below forecast last week. Spot gold price of gold was up 0.1 percent at $ 1,325.70 an ounce . Meanwhile, gold futures prices rose 0.2 percent at $ 1,329.9.

The next policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve took place 20 to 21 September. A decision to hold interest rate hikes could mean triggering the US currency lower, which would make dollar-denominated gold cheaper and more attractive to non-US.

US Labor Day holiday to make the volume quieter on Monday, but markets will be watching the release of new data and any speeches from Fed officials for clues move interest rates. Analysts and traders are also waiting to see whether the physical demand in India rose for the coming week for festival and wedding season.

Tonight will be released US services sector growth data via an index Markit and ISM Non Manufacturing is indicated weakened. If this is realized, it will depress the US dollar.it estimated that the price of gold may rise to fading hopes of a US interest rate hike this September and the weakening US dollar. The price of gold is estimated in the range of $ 1,328- $ 1.330 and if the price fell, the it will be in the range of $ 1,324- $ 1.322.

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Gold prices rose in late trading on Wednesday morning supported the weakening of US dollar on expectations that US Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates at its policy meeting in September. Spot gold prices rose 1.76 percent to $ 1,349.64 per ounce, while US gold futures prices closed up $ 27.30 an ounce at $ 1,354 and the latter 2.07 percent higher at $ 1,354.20, having hit its highest since August 26.

 

The precious metal hit a two-month low of $ 1,301.91 last Thursday on the prospect that non-farm payrolls report strong for August could put the Fed on track to raise interest rates soon. Gold bounced back, when the data missed expectations. The new release of US data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials will be closely watched for clues on the timing of interest rate hikes.

 

It estimated that the price of this precious commodity may rise to fading hopes of a US interest rate hike this September and the weakening US dollar. The price of gold is estimated  to rise at around $ 1,352- $ 1.354 and if the price falls then it will be in the range of $ 1,348- $ 1.346 .

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Gold price movements at the end of Asian session (05:50:35 GMT) after a strong move opened lower at 1344.85 in early trading (0000 GMT), XAUUSD rolling price is actually at 1346.85.

 

Gold prices end of the Asian session remained in bullish positions after earlier trading trimmed 4 consecutive days of rally. Gloomy fundamental US dollar throughout the day give the market a boost gold collection especially global stock markets were red.

 

Technically XAUUSD can move up to the range of 1349.50-1355.13, and if it is not the price may fall up to 1335.87. So the normal range of XAUUSD pair today is expected will have the support level at 1330.97 and for resistance level is at 1359.50.

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Gold price movements end of the Asian session (04:30:35 GMT / 11:30 GMT) after a strong move opened higher at 1338.10 in early trading (0000 GMT), XAUUSD value is rolling at 1338.95. Gold prices tried to rebound strong on Asian session after depressed during two consecutive days to respond to the red Asian markets and also the momentum of Weak US dollar against many of its main rivals.

 

Technically XAUUSD can move up to the range between 1341.26-1351.73, and if it is cannot up to that range then it will fall to between 1335.15-1328.34. But when it comes to the range early before going up again to the top of the range 1352.00. So the normal range of Gold today is expected to have the support level at 1321.17 and resistance level at 1358.17.

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Gold prices slipped for a third day at the end of trading the weekend early Saturday due to hawkish comments about US interest rates from a Federal Reserve official helped lift US dollar to a session peak, and as buyers continue to profit-taking on the rally this week.

The US dollar's rebound came after Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said the US central bank is increasingly at risk if we wait much longer to raise interest rates, adding to pressure on gold on Friday.

Spot gold was down 0.6 percent at $ 1,329.66 an ounce on Friday, while gold futures for December delivery settled at $ 1,334.50 and at $ 1,333.60. Gold prices are 0.8 percent higher this week, having peaked at $ 1,352.65 per ounce after rallying 1.8 percent on Tuesday. This precious metal is on track for a second weekly gain in a row after a poor US jobs data sparked hopes that the Fed will delay raising rates at its policy meeting in September.

Estimates for further policy differences between the United States and the euro zone eased after the European Central Bank hold further policy easing at a meeting on Thursday. "The ECB's decision to leave policy unchanged may have refocused market participants on the possibility that the Fed send a hawkish signal in the coming days before the pre-meeting quiet begins next Tuesday," said BNP Paribas in a note.

Analyst estimates that the price of gold could potentially weakened by the strengthening US dollar. However, it should be observed weakening of Wall Street and Europe if pressing global exchanges may lift gold prices. The price of gold is estimated in between $ 1,328- $ 1.326 and if the price falls to around $ 1,332- $ 1.334.

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Gold prices fell slightly in late trading early Tuesday morning because of the pressure of speculation over a potential rise in US interest rates this month offset the appeal of safe-haven metal amid broad weakness across other assets. Spot gold was nearly flat at $ 1,327.51 per ounce, down slightly 0.02 percent. While US gold futures settled $ 8.90 at $ 1,325.60 and was last down 0.19 percent to $ 1.332.

Amid market concerns that the Fed was about to continue the cycle of interest rate hikes, Fed Governor Lael Brainard a warning tone to the movement too fast in a speech on Monday. The weakness of inflation and the uncertain development "counsel caution in shifting policy accommodation," said Brainard, a statement delivered on to The Chicago Council on Global Affairs. "I believe this approach has served us well in recent months, helping to support further gains in employment and progress on inflation."

The possibility of a rate hike at the Fed's next meeting as soon slumped after news Brainard speech.After Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren speak on Friday, the possibility of a rate hike in September seen at 30 percent, up from 24 percent before his comments.

It estimated that the price of gold may rise to the weakening of US dollar after the easing of US interest rate hike expectations. The price of gold is estimated in the range of $ 1,329- $ 1.331 and if the price falls down further then the price range is between $ 1,325- $ 1.323 which act as support.