United States Dollar Fundamental Analysis(including USDX)

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Ending the American session forex trading on Tuesday (11/1) US dollar is moving very weak since the beginning of the Asian session trading slightly elevated by conditions experienced rivals in Europe. The US dollar rebounded against the euro exchange rate and swissfranc, and fell most sharply by the strength of the yen, Australian dollar and sterling.

The US dollar is still not dare to drive the market fears will be his first speech in public on Wednesday (11/1). The market is worried by US President-elect Donald Trump disappointing economic outlook of the country speech. Victory of dollar against EUR due to the crushing defeat suffered by EURGBP trading, after briefly moving stronger in European session.

The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies at the end of the American session trading slightly upward to a position 102.02. While the Asian morning trade session opened stronger position to 101.96 and was moving in the highest position at 102.10.

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The collapse of US dollar after the inaugural press conference US President Donald Trump that disappointed the market getting worse until European trading session on Thursday (12/01). The US dollar plunged deep into the worst position in 20 days trading market disappointment weigh against Donald Trump's campaign promises Americans better economic conditions.

Against US dollar gloomy conditions, the main rival who took advantage a lot of that is Japanese yen, euro and aussie. This moment makes the Japanese yen and the euro rose to its highest level in the last 24 trading days aussie rose to the highest peak in the 20 trading days.

In the US session tonight there is a negative sentiment that can suppress the dollar over the data that unemployment claims last week. This data is expected to be increased from the previous period. After that there are several official speeches FOMC is likely to provide breathing assistance to Dollar. To schedule Janet Yellen's speech, on this night does not provide direction of monetary policy.

The dollar index, which measures the strength of US dollar against six major currencies in European trading session fell to 100.80 after trading session on early Asia session opened at 101.72. However, the dollar index is now trying to rise to 101.00.

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Step into Asia session on Friday (27/1), the US dollar continued to rally back in bullish trading previously received previous trading sentiment that the US economic outlook and corporate earnings in the country. Optimistic view of market sentiment over protectionist policies despite the attitude of President Donald Trump make the uncertainty of the global trade.

The rate of the US dollar until this morning limited by several constraints that could be trimmed back as the drop in US bond yields is quite severe and global market focus throughout the day that advance US GDP data release Q4-2016. The drop in US bond yields on US session overnight triggered by poor economic data such as jobless claims and home sales data is the US.

Against several of its main rivals on Asia session this morning, almost all fell under pressure from the strong US dollar except aussie who receive rebound strength of the rally in crude oil prices and PPI data also Q4-2016. The dollar index, which measures the strength of US dollar against six major currencies in Asian trade climbed to 100.51 after opening at 100.48.

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With the Fed meeting for 2 days it was decided not to change interest rates and does not give the signal for the next rate hike, as already promised by the Central Bank of the United States by year end. Responding to the attitude of the Fed's previous US dollar rose above the 100 range after a report from the US labor market, fell again to around 99.

 

Before the announcement of the results of the FOMC meeting ADP had reported improvement occurring in the private labor market jump far exceeded the previous month period up to the highest level in seven months. The release of the US dollar managed to accelerate very fast to climb to the top of the range 100 that is also reinforced by the ISM manufacturing PMI is higher.

 

The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies at the end of the trading session with a couple of hours ago climbed to 99.75 after opening at 100.42.

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In the middle of EU session, the US dollar remains in the top position of bullish sentiment and able for the first time after six consecutive week plummeted. The strength of the US dollar until the European session was obtained from Trump's statements sentiment energy tax policy announcement phenomenal.

For further movement, it seems that it will receive a negative sentiment of the release of some economic data such as data import prices, the data Prelim UoM consumer sentiment. But the defense got from the statement of President Trump overnight.

The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies in European trading session amid bullish positions rise to around level 100.78 after opening higher at 100.64.

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US dollar managed to rally towards the end of trading last week's climb against many of its main rivals which earlier this week receives positive sentiment from the US-Japanese diplomacy during the two days ended by mutual agreement and without confrontation as the market feared previous.

 

The US and Japan meeting last weekend to the attention of the market after the United States cut ties with Trans-Pacific trade or TPP associated with Japan. Markets are worried what the end of the meeting especially before President Trump had expressed some major economies devalued to the detriment of the United States such as Germany and Japan.

 

For further movemen, i see that US Dollar may rise further considering that US Index has been rising for about 0.15 percents towards 100.69 which is close to two-week highs. And into Asia session the price opened higher at 100.82 with highs this morning has reached 101.01.

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The strength of the US dollar for 3 consecutive days prior to the session only lasted a day, after it experienced profit taking against many of its main rivals. And after the Asia session ended , US dollar remains weak until the Europe session

The US dollar depressed while the number of positive sentiment tried to lift such as rising US bond yields and the prospect of tax policy Trump sentiment and Fed rate hike plan. The dollar index in the middle of EU session traded at 100.80 and the previous bearish opened at 100.94.

Against other major rivals, the US dollar strengthened against the pound, which only receives pressure from the red European stock market trading and also the release of disappointing UK inflation data.

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US dollar showed strength and rose to a three-week peak against many of its main rivals on the second day of trading this week (14/2). Dollar gained strength after a negative movement on Asia session after the resignation of US National Security Advisor, comes from the release of PPI data and hawkish comments Janet Yellen.

The market is concerned with the resignation of Michael Flynn as the Government National Security Advisor Trump, arguing the sanctions President Donald Trump will implement economic policies and tax cuts in planned it. As reported in many media, the resignation of Michael Flynn related sanctions given to the Russians.

And at the beginning of the American session, January PPI data was announced at a position higher than expectations for the same data in December of the previous period. Following the release of the USD data rebounded back and beat many of its main rivals except aussie.

The dollar index which shows the strength of the US dollar against many of its main rivals at the end of the American session traded at around 101.24 and the previous bullish opened at 101.00. Entering Asia session the index shown higher at 101.25.

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Entering EU session it seems that USD experienced a selling pressure for a second consecutive days, continued on Asia session reversed course amid lack of sentiment forex market mover of economic data releases. Market interest back against the dollar after European stock exchanges do not provide benefits aka red zone.

However, the demand for dollars is still limited and the currency index position is still in the lowest range within 1 week. This week the movement of the US dollar is very mixed and moving exhibited significantly. Janet Yellen hawkish comments this week managed to lift the dollar to a peak height 1 month

The lack of catalysts driving the pace of the US dollar today made the key global currency is grounded in the fundamental weakness of his rivals. And the drop in European stock markets provide a safe haven sentiment on forex trading and this time the dollar took a share in addition to the Japanese yen.

The dollar index which shows the strength of the US dollar seems to be bullish in the middle of the European session. The price is rising at 100.57 after the index opened on Asia session at around 100.4

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In the middle of EU session, the condition of US dollar had strengthened on early Asia session after receiving bad sentiment and depressed FOMC minutes were disappointing report consolidation moves forward selling pressure earlier trading.

As reported this morning that the first minutes of the FOMC meeting this year did not mention the exact time for the next rate hike and more confirms the policy of US President Trump push up interest rates more quickly. The paper did not give a positive signal to be raised in March.

The movement of the US dollar next to the evening sessions can be more difficult if the release of jobless claims data last week showed that the period of disappointing data, as well as monthly HPI index that can make selling pressure continues. The dollar index which shows the strength of US dollar against many major rivals amid consolidation on EU session at around 101.35.

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Ending the forex trading late last week, the US dollar strengthened against several rivals in the European region but a strong hit by a save haven asset by market doubts would be tax reform and accelerating spending under President Donald Trump. Safe-haven assets in the forex market is the Japanese yen exchange rate managed to push the US dollar down to lows of more than 2 weeks.

Sentiment above also makes the market skeptical of the Fed's plan to raise interest rates a planned three times in 2017. Previous US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin interviewed one of the local media and for an increase in the US dollar showed kepercayaaan on the US economy. And for tax reform policy will be issued before August by not providing details about the policy.

The dollar index which shows the strength of US dollar against many of its main rivals at the end of last week bullish forex trading at 101.14 and had reached highs at 101.14 and lows at 101.04. For the week the US dollar managed to score gains after the previous week dropped thin.

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Profit taking done to US dollar dropped from its highest level in eight weeks since the Asia session continues until the weekend of the Europe session trading on Friday with a waiting position signal further Fed rate hikes from the Fed commented President and other high officials.

 

In US session, there are several events scheduled Janet Yellen and three other Fed officials delivered a speech, in which the market expects further continued hawkish signal. Previous half the official FOMC has signaled that hawkish Fed will hike rates at their meeting this month.

 

Against its main rivals, the US dollar was observed only strong against the Australian Dollar and Pund by weak fundamentals . Aussie tumbled by poor sentiment data releases Chinese businesses and weakening commodity prices, while still around Brexit pounds.

 

The dollar index which shows the strength of the US dollar against many of its main rivals in the middle of the Europe session at 102.08 after opening at 102.13 and the position had touched highs at 102.18 and the lowest at 101.97. 

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Near the end of this week's forex trading on United State session this Frida, some disappointing US economic data sent the dollar down to the worst in 10 months. The most pressing economic data release was the June inflation data, which was lower than the expectations and position of the previous period.

 

In addition to inflation data, there is also retail sales data that is still contraction and below expectations. Then pressured again by the release of UoM consumer prelim data sentiment whose data is far below expectations and previous periods. But for industrial production data in June released higher than the previous period and expectations.

 

The dollar index showing the strength of the US dollar against many of its major rivals amid US trading forex session where the index dropped at 95.18, after early trading the index opened at 95.77 and touched the highest position at 95.83.

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US dollar fell to its lowest level in nearly two years against Euro in late trade on Friday morning (21/07) after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers will discuss possible changes to the bond buying scheme in the autumn.

 

Although Draghi said there is no set date to discuss any changes to the program and that ECB tribal counters have agreed in their decision not to change their guidance on monetary policy.

 

Responding to this, the US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, touching a session low at 94.090, marking the lowest level in nearly a year. It was last returned to 94.31.

 

Analysts expect US dollar to move flat given the absence of significant US fundamental data that could drive the US dollar. Economic developments in Asia, Europe and crude oil prices will be scrutinized for the movement of the US dollar.

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Last night there were two important economic data from USA namely Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) and Pending Home Sales, where the results were mixed ie for Chicago PMI data fall down to 58.9 and Pending home sales rise around 1.5%.

 

Despite all that data, that is sure until now the US dollar is still overshadowed by selling pressure. The dollar remained near a 13-month low against a basket of currencies, weighed by continued political uncertainty in Washington and doubts about whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again this year.

 

Market expectations that the Trump administration will be able to push the economy through its pro-growth agenda got another blow on Friday after the US Senate failed to replace Obamacare.

 

US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback's strength against six major currencies, observed at around 93.25, after ending Friday's session the price fall down about 0.6%. The index has fallen about 2.2% this month and is down about 9% for the year.

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US dollar remained stable with a slight decline in Asian trading on Tuesday (08 / August). However, this currency is still a success at the end of last week. It seems that Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the US Dollar against six currencies of its rival mayor, stabilized at 93.412. Shortly after the US NFP data on Friday.

 

After this, investors are still waiting for further instructions to be given by the Fed related once again rate hike. "Looking at the conditions of the futures market for the Fed, no less than 50 percent chance for the Fed to rise tribes back this year," said Bill Northey, Chief Investment Officer of Private Bank Group U.S. In Helena, Montana, told Reuters.

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The US Producer Price Index dropped in July, according to data published by the Labor Department on Thursday (10/8) early in New York session. Weak Producer Inflation last month weighed down by a decrease in the cost of Services and energy products.

 

The Labor Department released Producer Price Index data for July demand for final demand which fell 0.1 percent, after briefly rising 0.1 percent in June. The fall of the PPI last month to the worst since the period of August 2016, indicating the trend of US Inflation may face obstacles in the third quarter of 2017.

 

In the past 12 months to last month, PPI has climbed 1.9% YoY or down 0.1% compared to June period. It seems that the release of US Production Inflation tonight contrasts with the forecast of economists predicting the PPI will rise 2.2 percent YoY after rising 2.0 percent in June.

 

Even so, Jobless Claims's release tonight outweighs expectations of economists predicting a 240,000 increase over the past week. It has been recorded 127th week in a row, claims are below the 300,000 mark that is the limit on the size of the US labor market health.

 

For Major pairs today just like this USD / JPY pair is slipping around 0.19 percent towards 109.86, off a two-month low of 109.56. Meanwhile, USD / CHF climbed up around 0.19 percent towards level 0.9657. Basically, Yen and Swissy have lost the momentum they got yesterday. However, both safe-haven currencies can still get support from the geopolitical turmoil of US and North Korea.

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The dollar slipped in late trading late Friday (11/08) after President Donald Trump said his warning to bring "fire and anger" to North Korea may not be enough.

 

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six rival currencies, was down about 0.16 percent towards 93.40. The dollar also continued its decline against Yen, which fall down as much as 0.81 percent to 109.16 yen.

 

Earlier in the day, the dollar slumped to an eight-week low against Japanese yen, as continued tensions between the United States and North Korea made investors look for assets that were seen as less risky. US dollar weakened after that news posted its biggest drop in almost a year and pointed to further inflationary slowdown that could delay the Federal Reserve's rate hike.

 

On Thursday, New York Fed President William Dudley said he expects U.S. inflation. Which will slowly increase in the next few months while the hot labor market gets hotter/

 

Tonight will be released on July US inflation data indicated to increase. Meanwhile, analysts expect the US dollar to decline if North Korea's geopolitical tensions continue to heat up. But if tonight inflation data realized strengthened, will strengthen the US dollar.

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The US dollar rose in late trading on Tuesday (15/08), as traders canceled a bearish bets against US Dollar. Which comes after mounting North Korean tensions and disappointing US inflation data. No further comment from the President of the U.S. Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un over the weekend helped bring investors back into the dollar and out of safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, analysts said.

 

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was last up to 0.39 percent. The index fell to its lowest level since May 2016 earlier this month. Last week, the dollar fell to an eight-week low against Yen. On Monday, it rose about 0.45% to 109.64 yen. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar rose 1.07 percent, with the pace of its biggest one-day percentage gain in almost three weeks.

 

Comments from New York Central Bank President William Dudley that it is unreasonable to think that the central bank will begin to cut the $ 4.2 trillion balance sheet in September and add another rate hike this year, with economic data gaining, pushing the dollar index to its highest level of the day this. Many analysts expect the US dollar to potentially rise with bargain hunting, and if tonight US retail sales data is realized rises will strengthen the US dollar.

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The dollar hoarded considerable gains until Wednesday's trading session (16 / August) this morning. Last night, US Retail Sales Data for July, reportedly jumped beyond estimates. Thus, speculation regarding FED rate hike continued to rise again to the surface.

 

In addition, the minutes of the Fed meeting that was held in July will be published on tonight. It will be a well-anticipated event for traders, to get further clues about the next rate hike, as well as on the reduction of the large-scale balance sheet that is expected to begin next month.

 

There is a chance for the Dollar to get more gains if market players begin to take into account the high likelihood of Fed rate hikes. The problem is, it has not happened because Fed Fund Futures actually shows a slightly smaller percentage of this year's rate hike.

 

In addition to the slick US economic data, the easing of geopolitical turmoil US and North Korea also contributed to the strengthening Dollar. Kim Jong Ung decided to cancel the attack on Guam and chose to oversee Washington's actions first.

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The US dollar moved up early in Asian trading on Monday this morning. The currency is tentatively away from the four-month low against Yen. The dismantling of White House personnel - a political and market issue since last week - is forecast to hamper US President Donald Trump's ability to realize tax reform plans and supplement its fiscal stimulus.

 

USDJPY rose 0.1% towards 109,265, after slipping to a low of 108,605 yen on Friday, the lowest since late April. UJ seem to ignore the US Consumer Sentiment Index released by the University of Michigan, which points to an increase in the strongest level of seven months in early August. The results reflect consumer confidence in the outlook for the US economy and in personal finances.

 

In addition, the dismissal of White House Advisor, Stephen Bannon, by Donald Trump has been confirmed at the end of last week. Trump's decision is likely to get Trump under pressure from his right-wing supporters but can also ease the tension between the White House and Party Leaders. 

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The US dollar remained stable in the trading session Tuesday (22 / August) this morning. The trader's focus still on the new Jackson Hole Symposium will be held tomorrow. They hope that the major central bank officials who will deliver the speech at the event, provide additional guidance on their respective monetary policy outlook.

 

The Dollar Index stood at 93.101 today, retreating from a three-week high of 94,145 hit yesterday. The short-term focus for the US Dollar is a speech from Fed Chairman Janet Yellen at Jackson Hole on Friday.

 

The greenback's strengthening move has stalled in recent days in response to investors' concerns that are turning into doubts about US President Donald Trump's ability to implement his economic policy agenda. In addition, the slowing US inflation impact on the potential for delays continue the Fed's rate hike this year. It is also a burden for the US Dollar. 

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The US Commerce Department reported Friday that non-Defense Capital Goods Includes an aircraft rise in July after unchanged in the previous period, signaling an accelerated business expenditure during the third quarter.

 

According to data released by the related ministry, the US Core Capital Goods Orders last month rose 0.4 percent (estimated 0.3 percent rise) and YoY posted an increase of 3.3 percent from a year ago.

 

Shipments of core capital goods jumped 1 percent, exceeding expectations of a previous 0.6 percent gain. The shipment of core capital goods can be used to calculate government spending on equipment that ultimately affects the amount of GDP.

 

Although Core Capital Orders posted gains, however, referring to overall data (Durable Goods Orders) declined 6.8 percent last month after rising 6.4 percent during the June period, as transportation orders fell 19 percent to the worst decline since August 2014.

 

The decline in freight orders in the transportation sector was most felt in the Civil Aviation category which plummeted by 70.7 percent last month after surging 129.3 percent in June. Boeing reported on its official website that it only received 22 aircraft orders last month, whereas the previous month had 184 orders for the aircraft.

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The US dollar weakened against Yen in the trading session Monday (28 / August) today, due to the failure of investors to get clues about the monetary policy of the Fed and ECB from the Jackson Hole symposium that was held at the weekend. In addition, economists are also studying the effects of Hurricane Harvey that hit Texas last week against the US economy.

 

The US dollar weakened after Fed Chairman Janet Yellen gave no hints about US monetary policy in a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Thus, this speech disappoints investors who expect hawkish statements from the number one person in the US central bank.

 

The Dollar Index slumped to 0.25 percent against major currencies towards around 92.501 today, adding to earlier losses. Markets were disappointed by Yellen's speech so they sold their Dollars and pushed down bond yields. For this week, the market will refocus to US, awaiting US employment report data. The market will assess the impact of the US NFP report on the Fed's monetary policy.

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The Consumer Confidence Index published by The Conference Board on Tuesday rose during the August period, continuing its rise in July. Although the US Consumer Confidence level continues to improve, the movement of Dollar seems to have been detached from selling pressure due to a geopolitical situation that heats up.

 

Consumer confidence obtained based on a random survey of 5,000 respondents by The Conference Board showed an increase in the Index this month to 122.9 (expectations 120.9) and the previous period 120.9

 

The appeal of August Consumer Confidence data in August that night's release prompted the Greenback to slightly strengthen versus various major currencies. But unfortunately, the Greenback has not been able to escape from selling interest due to geopolitical conditions that heat up so that Investors switched to the assets of Safe Heaven and the impact of Harvey Storm that will potentially continue Uncle Sam's economy.

 

On this day, EUR / USD is trading at 1.2018 or still perched at the highest level since January 2015. Similar conditions also occur on the GBP / USD is at the level of 1.2937 occurred a slight correction after briefly touching the daily high at 1.2978 in Europe this afternoon.