NewForex — Forex news (daily)

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

For the day, the regional markets grow indicating the largest increase within the last two weeks.These days, euro was stabilized against the Italian political crisis background of revaluation of scales of the negative consequences which were resoundingly smoothed by the stimulating policy of the European Central Bank.

Region-wide MSCI extended for 0.8%, having established the largest surplus for the last two weeks. Nikkei also added 0.8%. The stock indexes of Wall Street show positive dynamics: Dow grew up by 0.25%, and corresponding to it S&P and Nasdaq grew up by 0.6 and 1.0%. It is worth emphasizing that global investment activity was weak today and was observed mainly in the sectors which are traditionally considered to be the hedging means of financial risks.

The US dollar almost didn’t change towards main competitors and remains at the level of 100.16, near a Monday’s minimum in 99.849 — the lowest level since November 15. At the end of November the dollar’s index reached its summer peak in 102.05, having received a boost on expectations of the growing budgeted expenses and strengthenings of bull monetary moods in U.S. Fed. The yen was stabilized against US dollar at the level of 113.79.The Australian dollar lost 0.2% because RBA kept its policy without any changes. At the markets investment moods are up-and-coming, which is explained by the growing uncertainty concerning prospects of the European economy.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

The European currency was stabilized, but it is traded near its minimum of September 2015, after the referendum which was organized by the prime minister of Italy — Matteo Renzi spectacularly failed. The referendum was the reason of plucked hopes for the constitutional reforms and moreover it exacerbated the issue of the banking sector. The prime minister intends to resign.

Euro has weakened against dollar for 0.1% to the level of 1.0757, gaining 1% yesterday and leaping aside an early minimum of 1.0505. The British pound sterling grows, having secured profitable investment moods from a failure of the Italian referendum that can indirectly testify viability of a Brexit initiative.The Swiss franc grows, attracting hedgers as an asylum of security from financial risks.

Potential stakes of euro calamity were noticeably limited by incentives from the European Central Bank who can expand a procurement program of bonds this Thursday and continue the program for six or more months. Both eurosceptics clear-cut ascendancy and positive data from a post-Brexit GB market undermines the investors belief in prospects of the EU.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

The markets of the Asia-Pacific region received a boost for growing against the background of investors aggressive interest in real sector worldwide. After the rally for US dollar slowed down, officials of the European Central Bank are preparing for a meeting, for the purpose of programs prolongation of quantitative easing which is expected for half a year. At the same time it is unknown whether the purchasing amounts of bonds will be extended or not.

The global index MSCI which reflects cumulative data on dynamics of the world stock markets increased by 3.4%, having bounced off its November minima. Regional MSCI added 0.25%. The Japanese shares grew up by 0.4%. In Canada and Australia the growth respectively constituted 0.2 and 0.9%.

The American dollar index decreased by 1.5% against other principal currencies for the last two weeks. The greenback is traded at the level of 114.11 against JPY having developed from 9-1/2-month maxima in 114.83 yens which were reached earlier last week. The Australian dollar lost half-cent against the background of GDP weak data. The Canadian dollar is stable and keeps above the majority of competitors, waiting for the Bank of Canada to leave its interest rates without any changes later on today.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

After the European Central Bank developed its stimulating policy in relation to the Italian banks which added nearly 10%, the European shares resumed their growth, considerably gained an annual maxima in the banking sector.

However, it is worth understanding that measures of the European Central Bank have the constraining character and 10-% growth closed only a small part of losses which cost more than a half of capitalizations amount of all Italian banking sector this year. But also it is worth noting that these measures were very effective, and the treasury promised to consider a question of share increase in the largest Italian and the oldest world bank Monte dei Paschi in the near future.

Euro gained positions and it is traded above 20-month minima at the level of 1.0717 against the American dollar,the cause of which was the failure of the Italian referendum. The British pound is significantly limited in growth because of uncertainty concerning data production, which will be published later on today. Meanwhile the Swiss franc pointed firmer at the leader’s line against other competitors, being a key hedging instrument for today.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

The stock markets keep growing. The interest towards the real sector doesn’t weaken and Asian shares trade above its monthly maximum. Meanwhile the American shares are setting their fresh quarter records. The European shares are in requisition of investors due to the active stimulating support of the European Central Bank whose senior management will meet later to come to a number of decisions on monetary policy and to plan prospects into next year.

The resource-oriented Australian market grew up by 1.2% exactly by as many as the region out of Japan while Nikkei grew up by 0.8%. The Wall Street grows: the Dow index is +1.55%, S&P is +1.32%, and Nasdaq is +1,14% expecting fresh financial incentives and strengthening of deregulations policy from Trump’s administration.

The greenback weakened against yen which got stronger against all main competitors. The Australian and Canadian dollars took defensive positions, promoting growth of real sector and the export-oriented companies in particular. Profitability of 30-year treasury bonds dropped by 6 basis points earlier on Wednesday, showing the greatest daily recession since August and maintaining interest towards traditional assets.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

The European stock indexes grow, attracting investors from around the world according to cheap bank stocks and sought-after dividend prospects. The banking sector grew up to its January maxima, against the background of the extensive incentives and Credit Suisse’s reduced expenses.

EU-wide Stoxx 600 rose up by 0,9% — to its maxima of September while its bank section extended for 2.3%, with top performer Credit Suisse which added 7.4% against the reductions expenses background of more than 1 billion Swiss francs and the growing prospects for further reducing.

The European currency is stable. Recently, some analysts put forward an assumptions that between the prospects of extension of the European Central Bank stimulating program and the prospects of narrowing the parity appeared a parity of stocks as the European stock indexes show unpredictable potential for recovering. At the same time, the British pound sterling trades above most of competitors, having received the impetus from positive data on the national GDP which justified forecasts in 0.4% growth. Later today, don’t miss a meeting of the European Central Bank senior management in order to get reference points on monetary policy for the future 2017 financial year.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

The Asian markets show flagging signs against the background of the ECB bearish monetary policy which delayed interest of investors in the cheap European stocks promising long growth at the expense of the regulators expanded stimulating programme. Earlier the ECB announced that monthly purchases will be reduced, but up to the end of the next year the terms will be extended.

The Regional MSCI independently of Japan’s market dropped by 0.3% just as Japanese shares grow, having received the impetus from the weakened yen at 1.3%. The USA’s stock indexes grew at 0:22, 0.33 and 0.44% up to the record of its historical maxima. Forecasts for FED’s rate increase next month: probability for increasing in 25 basis points is 98% and probability that the stakes will be raised at least once by June, 2017 is 50%.

The US dollar added 0.4%, getting stronger at the level of the February maxima which were reached earlier last week, whereas the Japanese yen trades below all key currencies competing among themselves. The Australian and the Canadian dollar are stable and trade above the European and Asian colleagues. The index of US dollar grew up by 0.4% on a weekly basis.From the future events it is worth to point out committee meeting on the open markets of U.S. Fed next week. This is the most important event of these days during which as it is expected the interest rate will be raised.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

The ECB disoriented its investors, having promised to reduce amounts of bonds monthly purchase by 20 billion euros. It was regarded as bullish news before the markets rethought it in a bearish one against the background of the dominating prospect of terms prolongation of the stimulating program up to the end of 2017.

As a result profitability of the European bonds grew, bank shares grew, euro at first grew, and then fell. Presently the European bank index has extended for 2.2%, showing the best week results since 2011 while the Italian banks added 3.5%, having stabilized at the level of five-months maxima.The pan-European Stoxx 600 rose by 1.2%.

The European currency approached to 0.1% growth before falling against other competing currencies after the markets evaluated prospects of monetary policy of the ECB towards bear. The British pound and Swiss franc trade above yen and euro in a way that facilitates the growing interest in bank shares and the positive economic data from the Great Britain which convinced investors of the post-brexit markets growing potential.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

In the last quarter the production orders fell in Japan but managed to be recovered providing moderate interest in the national stock market. The Chinese Public information service declared that indicators markets growing exceeded its target at 6.7% and officials are going to review forecasts for 2017 towards further growth. Earlier MSCI World grew up by 0.41%, but lost about 0.1% in the markets of the Pacific Rim today. Nikkei expanded at 1.23%, and Wall Street stock indexes added 0.5, 0.6 and 0.7% consequently. The Australian ASX slightly grew up by 0.04% and the Canadian TSX added 0.11%. Fall of a regional index was promoted by China, where problems of reducing production activity and the market offer play a key role, in connection with in excess of a plan growth testifies overheating of the economy and debts growth. The greenback slightly weakened today. This week the meeting of officials of the Federal Reserve System is expected. As a result of this meeting the rates can raise up to 0:25 pips. Today the Canadian dollar received a considerable impetus for growing because oil prices increased to 4%, to the highest levels since 2015 against the background of the first OPEC and Russia transaction at the end of the last week. The JPY is in the lead of falling, supporting the export-oriented companies.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

The stock markets of Europe continue to grow near its annual maxima against the background of modified, but still bearish monetary policy of the European Central Bank. The bank reduced amounts of monthly purchased bonds due to prolongation of the quantitative mitigation program. In spite of the fact that Stoxx 600 opened with insignificant lowering, cheap bank stocks have already managed to return the all-European index to the ascending flow. Last week the index grew up by 4.7%, having overcome its maxima of January continuing to grow. The European currency is under pressure on behalf of the European Central Bank. The Swiss franc nearly joined ranks of fall leaders, being stabilized at the level of 1.0186 against the greenback. These days it is difficult to foresee the period of growth of the bank shares supporting the European market. But, if to look to the prices of the Italian assets, then it is possible to say that they approached the values abolishing negative consequences of a recent constitutional referendum safely failure.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

The markets grow pending the meeting of Committee officials on credit policy of U.S. Fed. Many investors are hedged, fix profit, predicting what reference points will pledge the Central bank in the relation to further measures of regulation. Profitability of treasury bonds jumped up on inflation growth expectations. The index of real sector in the region grew up by 0.11% while the stock index of MSCI weakened at 0.12%, keeping rates of a monthly surplus for 1.73%. In Japan Nikkei added 0.22% because of the fact that the weak yen provides big competitiveness for export. The USA treasury bonds reached their annual maxima and are traded at the level of 2.465%. The greenback grew up to its 10-month maxima against yen which is in on the back foot. The Canadian and Australian dollars already managed to depart from recent commodity rally and now they are in low demand among investors each of hedging instruments and attractive risk assets.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

The European banking sector continues to enjoy popularity but now it is quite noticeable that it’s more limited because of the wakened interest of investors to risk asset classes. However, hedging risks against the background of events around U.S. Fed interest rates are also enough these days. The European MSCI index grew up by 3.2% since November 15 and opened with 0.15% growth. The British economists reviewed forecasts for market growth for the future year. Today it will become known whether forecasts for a consumer price index of Britain will come true. The European currency continues to face pressure of bearish policy of the European Central Bank, but trades above the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen. At the same time the British pound and Swiss franc trade above the majority of currencies because of the divided interests of investors towards the risk and hedging tools.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

Recently the growth of bank shares pushes the European markets up. Today we can observe an active growth of the Italian bank shares in particular such as UniCredit, relying on the help of the new prime minister Gentiloni promising to take supportive measures towards perspective sector of the country.

 

Last week the Italian banks managed to show united growth, because of short positions on salvation of Monte dei Paschi bank under the auspices of the European Central Bank. The all-European FTSE Eurofirst 300 grew up by 1.01%, and the European stock indexes are traded in the range of 0.8-1.0%.

 

The European currency makes up for the losses which were received earlier from unexpected policy changes of the European Central Bank connected with terms and amounts of monthly purchases. Meanwhile, the British pound is traded less surely because of weak forecasts for the labor market and unemployment. As per usual, Swiss franc is stable in the conditions of high financial risks providing good support to hedgers.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

The markets were slowed down waiting for a meeting of U.S. Fed officials which will begin today at 19:00 GMT. At the meeting, number of important decisions on credit policy will be adopted. Moreover reference points will be pledged for the future year. For many traders there is a chance to earn these days and many just abstain from market risks in the period of abnormal volatility.

 

The region MSCI index added 0.1%. Shares of the American companies are in quite good demand: Dow Jones grew up by 0.58%, Nasdaq and S&P 500 increased by 0.95% and 0.65%. The Australian ASX added 0.71% while TSX in Canada grew up by 0.65%, the Chinese CSI 300 lost 0.31% because of problems with an overheat of the productive activity annoying the market during the last quarter.

 

The US dollar is traded at the level of 115.20 against the Japanese yen and it is slightly lower than early February maxima 116.12 while the index of the American dollar was stabilized at the level of 101.05. Traders fix their profit and abstain from trade and lots of them prefer to hedge through traditional and cyclic asset classes these days. The Canadian dollar is traded valiantly against main competitors while the Australian dollar went to defensive position.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

The markets are weaken because of increase in a rate of the Federal Reserve System on 25 basis points. Investors are also frightened of the extended projection for 2017 promising about three increases instead of two planned earlier. Officials declared that they are ready to toughen policy on an inflation acceleration measure as the administration plans to go to large-scale expenses that will lead also to growth of bond yield of the USA. The regional MSCI lost 1.3%: indexes of Wall Street lost 0.5-0.8%, the Canadian TSX of-1.22%, the Australian ASX-0.82. The Chinese CSI 300 on the way to 0.8-1% to losses. But here the Japanese Nikkei grows thanks to the weakened yen for 0.32%. Central Bank of China established JPY exchange rate on 6.9289 against the greenback to the weakest level since 2008 though participants of the market noted that JPY was firm in relation to many other currencies and grew on the trade weighted basis. The greenback grew up to 14-year maxima in 102.62 against JPY, to the level of the beginning on February 117.86 against the Japanese yen that served as an incentive for growth of the Japanese shares. The widest number of economic data will be announced today including read operations at consumer prices and production activity and also a speech of Polose, the head of the Bank of Canada. It can shed light on prospects of Canada monetary policy and provide fresh estimates of the USA market.

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

The European shares considerably weakened because events served in the USA as a factor of a capitals flight and trade considerably below early annual maxima as U.S. Fed toughened its monetary policy and planned prospects for further toughening. The banking sector of Italy weakened almost for 3% and the oldest bank Monte dei Paschi lost 2.1%. Pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 weakened on 0.5 with considerable losses in cyclic sectors of economy and also large consumer sectors and services of health care where losses constituted from 1.6 up to 3.3%. The European Central Bank suspended incentives for Greece having rolled the stock indexes up to 3.2%. Euro weakened to the level of 1.0460 against the greenback having slipped last year March minimum which constituted 1.0457 that opens prospect for parity rate. The British pound is stable against competitors against the background of positive data from the labor market while the Swiss franc suffers from low forecasts of the banking sector which reached a critical point of growth this week earlier.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

The prospect of toughening FRS monetary policy next year was reviewed towards increasing three times, instead of the double reference point accepted earlier in September. These news pushed profitability of 10-year treasury bonds of the USA to two-year maxima while short-term grew to its maxima of 7 years. Primary commodities and precious metals weakened against the background of the greenback strengthening. For today the MSCI Asia-Pacific index lost 1.78% though the Japanese Nikkei grew up at 0.8% because of weak yen. The Wall Street also added: Dow grew up by 0.31%, Nasdaq added 0.37%, and S&P extended for 0.39%. The Australian market lost 0.1% and Canadian added 0.14%. The US dollar became stronger about its 2002 maxima. The dollar index is at the level of 103.10, near its 14-year maxima of 103.56. The American currency is traded at the level of 118.145 yens after departing from a 10-month maximum 118.660 which was reached before. The Australian and Canadian dollars are traded poorly against competitors in relation to weakening tendency of the raw markets.

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

In Europe it is observed the growing interest in shares which is promoted by more rapid nominal growth, changes in monetary policy, moderately high interest rates and only slightly accelerated inflation. The financial highlights showed growth of the Italian banks up by 4.4% for the last three weeks. In general, the banking sector of Europe enjoys wide popularity among investors these days. The Stoxx Europe 600 index added 0.9% earlier and is traded near its January maxima though has all risks to lose about 2% this year if the rally on cyclical stocks breaks until the end of a quarter. The bank index grew up by 2.5%, having benefited from the growing profitability of the USA treasury bonds. The European currency is traded at the level of 1.0435 against the greenback, having lost 0.2% earlier and having approached 13-year minima in 1.0366. The Bank of England didn’t begin to raise rates and therefore the pound sterling is unpopular today, however the Swiss franc has potential to growth because of the growing interest in bank shares, but this demand is significantly limited by low interest in precious metals.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

The regional markets weakened and are traded within its minima of November 21 against the background of deterioration in diplomatic relations between China and the USA because of the captured underwater American UAV today. However, this conflict is exhausted and the UAV will be returned in the nearest future, but investors already managed to react to risks. The local MSCI index weakened at 0.1% to four-weeks minima and at 3% for the last month. The People’s Bank of China accepted provisional regulations for regulation of foreign insurance companies that led shares of Hong Kong to September’s minima. The Japanese Nikkei suffered at 0.2% because of the strengthened yen while the Wall Street shares showed the descending dynamics: industrial Dow lost 0.04%, and S&P 500 and Nasdaq weakened at 0.18 and 0.36% consequently. The Canadian TSX and ASX of Australia also grew up at 0.53% and 0.22. The greenback lost 0.3% against the JPY and is traded at the level of 117.59 in defensive line items against all other competitors. Meanwhile, the yen is in the lead in growth against all principal currencies while CAD and AUD noticeably weakened because of low demand for raw material resources these days.

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

The European markets grow up led by bank and in general by cyclic shares. Shares of European Banks are traded cheap after the Italian constitutional referendum, but open prospects for growing against the background of incentives of the European regulator. The tendency lingered on and many investors are very cautious being afraid of a turn that led to a moderate and slow growth of these assets. Today the main European indexes opened with growth thanks to the banking sector and positive forecasts for business activity. Besides, the oil prices which jumped up on expectations of further reductions in the future year served as the growth driver. The MSCI Europe index is traded in the range of 0.30-0.45% of a surplus today. The euro index grew up by 0.33% and the currency is traded at the level of 1.0459 against the greenback significantly having added to its minima of last week, that is 13-year minima in 1.0366. The GSCI Energy index grew by 1.81%. The British pound is traded weaker than other principal currencies and here the Swiss franc became stronger against the majority because gold added 0.38% on Friday, reflecting tendency of investors to risks hedging.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

The Bank of Japan kept its rates without changes that led to fall of yen and served as the driver for growth of exporters shares. In general shares in the region are traded in different directions because of terrorist attacks in Turkey and Germany. At the same time, the head of the Federal Reserve of the USA Janet Yellen gave a number of bullish comments on the labor market and monetary policy that spurred on US dollar and the shares of Wall Street. The MSCI index is traded with a small surplus of 0.05%, Nikkei added 0.12%. In China CSI 300 weakened at 0.6%. The Wall Street grew: Nasdaq added 0.37%, S&P 500 and industrial Dow added 20%. ASX in Australia grew up by 0.52%, and the Canadian TSX extended for 0.12% today. The US dollar grew up by 0.1% against yen having closed its lowering with 0.7% earlier on Monday. The index of US dollar added 0.2%. For today, the Canadian and Australian dollars got the upper hand of growth. On the eve of holidays there is a decrease in the trading volumes even on obviously perspective tools as investors and traders are hedged through safe assets.

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

Interest in the banking sector was developed as it was expected that led to fall of European bonds profitability. The next attempt of Monte dei Paschi bank to receive the credit of 5 billion euros from the European Central Bank was the cause of short-term pressure weakening of a debt burden. Today, the global bank index added 0.27% while the European bank index lost more than 1.2% from Stoxx Europe. Gold grew up by 0.46% against the background of the condensed policy risks while investment moods of the financial risks inclined to hedging. Brent oil lost 0.2% having fallen to $54.82 for barrel again because of holidays. It led an index of alternative energy WH Clean Energy to growth by 1.69% while the Bioenergy index grew up by 0.16%. Formerly Euro lost 0.4% against the greenback while the British pound trades above the majority of currencies and the Swiss franc shows weakness signs though trades above yen and euro being supported at the hedgers cost. Meanwhile, the authority of the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Lagarde, received a serious damage against the background of accusations of the French court in negligence but the Fund committee decided to leave the head in a position.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

The strong greenback will press G10 and Asian FX next year. For today, the greenback is traded at the level of its 2002 maxima. These days fixing of profit in the form of the slowed-down pre christmas session dragged on and Asian shares couldn’t benefit from the weakened regional currencies. The main index of Australia closed at the best level for the last 17 months while indexes of Wall Street are traded surely with a surplus in the majority of the main sectors. For today the financial sector got the upper hand with growth of 1.2% in S&P 500 which added 0.35%. Nasdaq and Dow Jones added 0.49 and 0.46% consequently. However, the greenback was slowed down against yen and trades above only one Australian dollar who act on the defensive to the full against competitors today. Emerging markets lost more than $23 billion since Trump was elected in the function of U.S. President having provoked a long rally for the greenback.

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

The stock indexes of Europe grow and are traded near its annual maxima that mainly today serves the final corporate transactions traditional for the termination of a financial year. Besides, the banking sector is stable and attracts investors with fresh vigour these days. Stoxx Europe 600 increased in 0.5% and is traded at its annual maxima. The Italian shares also intercalated and are traded near the highest annual marks. For today, the British bank shares grew up by 1.9% because of large deal in Lloyds BG which can push the creditor on the highest competitive line items in the regional banking sector. Euro took a leading positions while the Swiss franc was influenced by incentives of bank growth and here the British pound is stable, but also without signs for further growth against main competitors. In general the region is undermined by important economical and political events this year among which there is a bank crisis in the country and brexit, but still there are chances to increase making large corporate deals in the end of the year.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

The stock markets in the region are traded obscurely headed by weak American indexes. Dynamics which is traditional for holiday days was aggravated with expectations of important economic data from the USA and Canada which can renew rally on the American and Canadian dollars. The Wall Street shares were slowed down: industrial Dow lost 0.16% while S&P 500 and Nasdaq weakened at 0:25 and 0.23% consequently. Regional MSCI decreased by 0.3%, and the Japanese Nikkei lost 0.2%. TSX in Canada and ASX in Australia extended at 0.08 and 0.54%. The greenback also weakened, having departed from its 2002 maxima at the level of 103.650 to the level of 102.940 on the greenback index. The dollar is traded at the level of 117.58 against yen that doesn’t salvage the Japanese shares. The Canadian dollar became stronger against most of competitors while the Australian dollar strengthened only against yen.

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

The index of consumer confidence in the eurozone grew up to its 20-month maxima. Optimystical data served as an impulse for euro, but concerns about political instability still render pressure and will be postponed till the next year. The all-European Stoxx Europe 600 lost 0.35%. In Britain, FTSE 100 lost 0.04%, CAC 40 in France lost 0.33% while German DAX added 0.03%. Strong euro pressed the stock indexes but in general they give potential for further growth, mainly because of the large corporate deals traditional for the end of the year. The European currency grows and is traded at the level of 1.0438 against the greenback with a surplus in 0.2% and separation from 13-year minima in 1.0352. The British pound keeps steadily in anticipation with publication of GDP data while the Swiss franc, almost doesn’t lose in attention thanks to hedgers whose number also grows by the end of a financial year.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

For today, the majority of the key markets is closed for Christmas holidays while the American dollar weakened against yen thanks to the weakened profitability of treasury bonds and multidirectional economic data from the USA. Investors are hedged through safe assets, the trade was slowed down, the markets drew up the balance of the expiring year and pledge prospects on future. On Friday, profitability of 10-year treasury bonds fell, having departed from 27-month maxima against the background of the economic indicators which showed strong housing sector, consumers activity and reduced an income on a family. The foreign exchange market lacks activity in Asia, Europe and North America because their markets are closed for today. The greenback is traded at the level of 117.300 against the JPY, having lost 0.2%. On Friday, the Australian dollar stabilized at the level of 0.7178 against the American dollar, having weakened to level of 0.7160 because of weak data from the Chinese market, which is the largest partner of Australia. The Canadian dollar was also slowed down and traded at the level of 0.7400 against the American colleague. At the same time, Trump appointed Peter Navarro, the famous Chinese hawk, the head of neogenic National trade council that was estimated by investors as the first step to a condensation of the protectionist measures declared by the American president.

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

Previously on Friday the European shares could return in general its positive territory that was promoted by a turn in the banking sector of the region after large creditors took measures of the claim settlement of the US Department of Justice raising the questions of manipulations with mortgage securities during crisis of 2008. On Friday, the all-European Eurofirst 300 was closed with a surplus in 0.03% and can show the best month for two years in a row if it wouldn’t suffer considerable losses until the end of current. The German DAX weakened at 0.05%, and both the French CAC 40 and the British FTSE 100 added 0.1% and 0.06% appropriately. These days the Deutsche Bank is the leader of the European growth and added about 80% this month having developed from catastrophically low levels after agreed to meet requirements of the American Ministry of Justice having cut off benefits amount approximately in the middle of $7.2 billion. The European currency is traded at the level of 1.0457 against the greenback while the British pound went to strong defense while the Swiss franc trades below most of its competitors but still stays afloat thanks to cyclically renewable interest in precious metals and bank shares from the investors inclined to diversify a portfolio and to hedge risks at the end of the financial year.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

For today, the Asian stock markets move in different directions while many of the regional markets are still closed for Christmas holidays thereat the US dollar received a fresh boost to growth having railed from the early losses which were received in the early part of the week. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index is traded in a flat while Nikkei added 0.32% because of the weakened yen. The Wall Street grows: industrial Dow Jones added 0.07% whereas Nasdaq and S&P 500 grew up at 0.28 and 0.13% relatively. The Canadian TSX was closed with losses in 0.05%. The Chinese shares lost on average about 0.2%. The Canadian and Chinese indexes weakened despite of positive market data that testifies the low investment activity in real sector significantly weakened by the growing dollar. The US dollar grew up by 0.1% to the level of 103.13 against main competitors in compliance with an index of the American currency which is not far from 13-year maxima today. The Japanese currency weakened against the background of the low consumer prices which showed weakness the ninth month in a row while expenses of households fell even in spite of the fact that the number of new workplaces grew up to its 25-year maxima. The Canadian dollar became stronger against the majority of principal currencies because of the developed oil prices.

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

The European economy is going to close 2016 with a notable surplus in the main markets such as Germany, France and Great Britain with the same notable easing on the periphery particularly in Italy, Portugal and Greece. Some markets didn’t manage to get out of credit debts even despite activation of the program of quantitative mitigation from the European Central Bank by the end of the year. Today, strong consumer moods and weak euro allowed the European markets to increase its growth. The all-European Eurofirst 300 grew up by 0.4% and for 0.1% since Monday, against the background of the growing banking sector which added also about 0.1% since the beginning of week. Polls on behalf of scientifically research institute of GfK showed growth of consumer and investment confidence for the future year. The European currency is traded with lowering of 0.2% against US dollar at the level of 1.0435 whereas the Swiss franc still uses appeal in the opinion of the investors needing protection of assets against New Year’s Eve financial risks. Oil prices were developed against the background of reductions OPEC and other manufacturing countries, such as Russia meanwhile and grew up by 0.1% today.

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

For today, the regional stock markets grow headed by Wall Street condensing activity during the period between holidays. But in the majority participants of the markets are hedged against holiday risks and review investment portfolios in such days while the dollar became stronger against yen against the background of positive economic data from the USA. The MSCI index added 0.42%, the Japanese Nikkei lost 0.05% having been late in defensive line items. The Australian shares grew more than by 1% because of rally for primary goods while the Indonesian assets added 1.9% and Shanghai lost 0.1%. The Wall Street grows: industrial Dow added 0.06% while S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite grew at 0:22 and 0.45% correspondingly. In December, The American dollar became stronger at the level of 117.670 against the JPY having added 0.25% against the background of the growing consumer activity which showed the best results for the last 15 years. CAD also became stronger because of rally on primary goods and AUD was by the same token beaten out in leaders of growth today having overtaken all main competitors. Later on today we expect data on contracts from the real estate market which as expected can specify the bullish direction for US dollar.

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

In Great Britain the number of private house on individual household was reviewed on lowering from Resolution Foundation to 51% in a section with official assessment in 64%. RF analysts proved recalculation by the fact that many house owners are inclined to accept lodgers or to lease apartments that led to errors in official statistics. At the same time the European Central Bank agreed to allocate €8.8 billion for recapitalization of one of the largest and at the same time the oldest Banks of Italy — Monte dei Paschi. The European stock indexes were closed with growth earlier. On Tuesday, the British FTSE 100 added 4.49 pips or 0.06% to the level 7,06817 while French of CAC 40 grew at 8.60 points or 0.18% and is traded at the level of 4,84828. German DAX added 22.31 pips or 0.19% to the level of 11,47224, and the Switzerland market index of Switzerland grew up at 26.81 points or 0.33% to the level of 8,25945. Altogether the all-European Eurofirst 300 was closed with a surplus of 0.11%. For today, the European currency grew up 0.1% against US dollar and is traded near the level of 1,04662 whereas the British pound having recovered from the early losses received at the beginning of a week recovered 0.2% and traded at the level of 1,22902. The Swiss franc is stable and trades above most of its competitors. The strong demand for primary goods grows day by day and many economists expect that this tendency will dominate in the markets at the beginning of 2017.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

The Asian markets suffer losses following Wall Street indexes which fell after investors began to fix results of weeks-long profit. At the same time by the end of a financial year and also as a result of profitability kickback of treasury bonds. The Japanese Nikkei lost 1.3% against the background of the strengthened JPY while Toshiba Corp lost 16% because of news about mass write-offs which led to decrease in credit ratings of the company. S&P reported about expectations of sharp reducing capital stock that it can undermine financial stability of conglomerate. The MSCI index in the Pacific Rim dropped by 0.19% however in some markets, for example in Australia there is a considerable surplus to 17-month maxima while shares in Shanghai added 0.2%. The Wall Street slightly sank: Dow dropped by 0.56% while S&P 500 lost 0.84% and Nasdaq Composite weakened for 0.89%. The US dollar lost 0.5% against JPY but is still 12% higher this month. Bonds of the USA showed record rally in combination with surprisingly great demand on 5-year-old earlier treasurer while profitability of 10-year bonds fell to the lowest levels in two weeks having lost 2,492%. Economic data are concentrated on the US, unemployment benefits and oil inventories.

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

Eurozone profitability is falling against the background of the concerns connected with destabilization of a bank system in combination with low investment activity which characterizes these days. The British pound loses because of the real estate market. Profitability of the Italian bonds falls against the weakness background of the basic indexes FTSE/MIB correlating with euro and the British pound. In general — investors are concerned by the Italian financial stability. At the same time tendency of participants to close line items in holiday time leads to delay of trade reactions in the markets. The expanding yield gap fixed euro at the level of 1.0450 against USD after approached maxima of two months at 1.2243. The British pound shared lot of common currency in relation to dollar but at the same time received a considerable rebound in Asia earlier and is traded at the level of 1,2200. In Great Britain housing prices promise to continue growth in 2017, however by much slower rates and according to the researches Halifax. The weak economy in combination with the low level of availability will entail reduction of sales. In the merchandise market oil loses because of growth expectations in US inventories — about 26 cents for $53,80 for barrel while Brent trades on 4 cents below for $56,18.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

The Asian stock markets were closed in 2016 with positive disposition while the participants of the markets fixing profit pushed dollar and euro to its two-week maxima. Commodity trade deficit in the US extends and the labor market is overheated. The widest regional MSCI index grew up by 0.5% dispersing from Wall Street which suffers insignificant losses today. However, this year industrial Dow Jones added even 14% having shown the best growth in the region for the last four years. Thailand added 20% this year and the Japanese Nikkei weakened for 0.4% having lost nearly 22% this year and is traded near five-year minima. Gold is traded near two-week maxima, thanks to hedgers having added 0.1% to $1.15931 for ounce today, having headed for a 9.3-% surplus this year, having escaped at the same time from three-year minima. Oil prices grew up by 51% this year, and are traded near maxima of the beginning of 2015. This year, the US dollar grew up by 10.5% against JPY but managed to lose 0.2% today, being traded at the level of 116.44. The index of US dollar lost 0.35% today to 102.28 after it weakened for 0.6% earlier on Thursday. In general, the index grew up by 3.7% this year. The JPY closes year more weakly with decrease by 7.1% against US dollar. Profitability of treasury bonds in the USA completely changed a course for the last two weeks as investors looked for shelters from financial risks. Profitability fell to 2.4659 and trades slightly above the two-week minima which was reached during the trading session.

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

On Thursday, the British FTSE was closed at the highest level in the world against the background of rally on precious metals and higher prices of gold in spite of the fact that the weakened banks limited growth of the all-European index and holidays noticeably diluted global trade. The all-European Stoxx 600 index was closed with decrease because of weak appetites to risk. At the same time, the British shares added 0.2% being closed at the level of 7.12026 pips, record already the second session in a row and less than 10 points below than the historical maxima at 7.12983 reached earlier in October. Gold Miner Randgold Resources jumped up for 4.8% having shown the most large increase on the FTSE 100 index after gold reached two-week maxima because of the weakening dollar. Euro added nearly 2% today having shown the most large increase since November 8 before returning to a 0.6-% surplus and to be closed at the level of 1.0527 against US dollar. Today, the market is very sluggish: offers weakened and short-term players pushed euro and stopped having left common currency with 3-% decrease this year. The Swiss franc is stable and trades above the majority of currencies against the background of the growing demand for gold. But despite demand in relation to precious metals the European index of fixed assets dropped by 0.9% with considerable decrease in market value of copper and aluminum.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

The US dollar is traded near its 14-year maxima against the optimistic background of the global economic data which affected the Wall Street. The strong dollar limited growth of the raw market but helped the Japanese exporters to enter long rally in the stock market towards the largest growth for the last two months. In the first trading day of year the Nikkei index grew up by 2,53% and now it is at the highest level since December 2015 that was promoted also by the factory data which showed considerable acceleration last year. The MSCI index grows already the seventh session in a row with a surplus of 0.2% today. China is kind to corresponding moods, the eurozone and the US have also the same feeling. The index of global investment activity from Barclays grew to the highest level since December 2013. The dollar was traded at the level of 103.82 against the basket of principal currencies on maxima of 2003 before fixing the profit from investors pushed it back to level 103.32. Owing to weak activity for JPY the currency of the US grew up to 118.11 having faced levels of resistance at 118.60/66. Also there are news on Mexican peso which is traded at the lowest level against US dollar.

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

The European shares grow with the leading financial and commodity sectors, blue chips of Great Britain beginning new year at record-breaking high level. Especially bullish FTSE served as a reliable support for the European market and investors expect that this tendency will remain. The sector of the main Europe resources and also an oil-and-gas sector grew on 1.3 and by 0.9% relatively because of active support of the primary goods prices. The all-European Stoxx 600 was closed with a 0.7-% surplus having reached the highest level since December 2015 having added 0.5% earlier on Tuesday closing at the level of 7.17789 after an early rally till 7.20545 respectively on the same day. Finance companies were allocated as leaders of growth with growth of 2.8% on the all-European index being closed above its annual maxima at the same time. Profitability of the German 10-year bonds grew up by 10 basis points to two-week maxima in 0.29%. On Tuesday, in the goods markets oil prices were stabilized after lost more than 2% having returned 40 and 43 cents — WTI and Brent relatively. Euro is traded at the level of 1.0402 against US dollar having returned from its minima 1.0342. Depreciation of euro goes despite jump in profitability of domestic bonds after official sources certified growth of the German inflation to the highest levels since January, 2014.

NewForex Analyst 

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

Expectations in the relation of U.S. Fed support rising rates a tendency to growth of dollar while the Asian market releases the equity to joy of the European shares and American treasury bonds where profitability of two-year bonds grew up to 1,21% having come off the minimum of 1.17% which reached earlier on Thursday. MSCI in the region added 0.5% while the Australian and Canadian markets added 0.9% and lost 0.6% relatively. Wall Street indexes are traded in the positive territory, despite strong dollar: Nasdaq grew up by 0.6%, Dow Jones and S&P added 0.3%. Investors are very cautious before Trump’s press conference on Wednesday which can force investors to fix profit. Meanwhile the US dollar grows in quality of critical threat for Asian assets, extending the equity and toughening fiscal policy on a global and economic background. At the same time the Australian dollar got stronger because of the renewed rally on the share of mining companies and the Canadian colleague sank against the majority of principal currencies because of the developed oil prices. Oil futures dropped on average by 0.3% because of strong dollar and the growing doubts that members of OPEC will adhere to the agreement on reducing production amounts in the current time.

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

The European stock indexes opened a week with growth which is promoted by capital outflow from the Asian region to safe assets — precious metals, cyclical stock and perspective bank shares as peripheral, and in the developed markets. At the same time the British shares grow already more than a month, mainly because of weak pound sterling. The all-European Eurofirst 300 is traded near its month maxima and added more than 10% since November because of the dragging-on global tendency on fiscal policy. Meanwhile, capitalization of the companies gold miners grows which is connected with growth of capital costs of many industry members — for the purpose of compensation of the exhausted inventories. But in general growth on gold remains limited because of strong US dollar. The European currency is traded near its six-months maxima above most of competitors. However, it yields to the American dollar at the level of 1.0534 while the Swiss franc became stronger against the background of the short-term rally for gold. The British pound is the weakest than main competitors, but supports by that growth of national exporters — already the fifth week in a row. The European shares promise to grow if the dollar will remain strong further.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

The US dollar unexpectedly appeared under pressure during an Asian session. Being traded with a quite good surplus at the beginning of the session the dollar started to rise later and began to fall, having lost 0.3% against main competitors. Both the Australian and New Zealand dollars together with Japanese yen and euro became stronger on these news. The Asian markets are stable, meanwhile the prices of the Chinese producers grew because of the strengthened staple prices. The MSCI index in the region grew up by 0.3% while the American indexes were closed in different directions: Nasdaq Composite added 0.19%, Dow Jones and S&P 500 decreased by 0:35 and 0.38% relatively. The Canadian TSX and Australian ASX decreased by 0.7 and 0.8%. Shanghai Composite lost 0.2%. Today oil prices grew up by 0.12% on the average. The US dollar weakened in relation to the basket from six principal currencies having lost 0.3% on an index and having fallen to the level of 101.64. At the same time the greenback is traded poorly against the Japanese yen at the level of 115.585 expecting Trump’s press conference which will be the first one since elections. The Australian dollar became stronger at the level of 0.7367 against US dollar and the Canadian weakened to 0.7565. Today we also expect news from the labor market which can show bullish moods on the American dollar and affect market moods in general.

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

Meanwhile, representatives of the EU declared that Britain won’t be able to provide necessary 500 million external consumers to the market without accepting the principles of free economic and political movement. Similar moods pressed for the British pound sterling having provided growth of FTSE 100 to record maxima. In general the European indexes are traded poorly because of severe losses in the banking sector developed after positive start at the beginning of a year. Pan-European Eurofirst 300 decreased by 0.35% while the banking sector weakened for 1.7%. But in general the sector grew within the last weeks because of hopes for a financial incentive counting upon January 20 promising growth of bond yield because of Trumps inauguration. Gold became stronger because of the growing interest in a hedging having added 0.3%. Euro became stronger against US dollar at the level of 1.06075 having added 0.3% while the British pound is traded at the level of its two-month minima having taken defensive positions against all principal currencies. The Swiss franc traditionally grows because of special attention to hedging instruments of financial risks and is traded with a 0.03-% surplus against competitors.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

Tonight the press conference of the U.S. President Donald Trump will take place. It will be for the first time since elections and as it is expected it can turn the markets upside down. During the conference some strategic objectives in the relation to tax policy, trade and budgeted expenses will become clear. Today many participants of the markets are forced to reckon with protectionist sentiment in the American economy which can undermine world trade both in short and in the long term. In the region MSCI Index is traded near its November maxima with a surplus in 0.42% while Japanese shares grew up by 0.4%, and also traded at the pre-election levels of November. Speaking about Wall Street shares are traded with almost zero surplus as investors are afraid of opening line items on traditional assets in anticipation with important political news. In Australia and Canada the ASX and TSX indexes were closed with 1.9 and 2.4% of a surplus. The greenback suffered from the weakening profitability of the treasury bonds which spread out from 2.64% of its two-year maxima. The dollar is traded at the level of 116.10 against yen near a three-week minimum in 115.06 which it reached earlier on the 6th of January. The dollar index also departed from its early 14-year maximum in 103.82 which was reached the 3rd of January.

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

The stock indexes grow in Europe, with leading retail companies and also thanks to rally on precious metals and shares of mining companies. Nevertheless, the European growth is limited by the weakened financial sector particularly in such countries as Italy, Greece and well-developing European currency. The all-European Stoxx 600 index grew up by 0.1% while the British FTSE 100 updated its record maxima with a surplus of 0.5% to level of 7.28481 points. The French CAC 40 is at a zero mark while German DAX added 0.2%. Insurance and bank industry indexes dropped by 0.6 and 0.1% relatively with lowering in 0.7 at Commerzbank and for 2.4% at Deutsche Bank. In Lisbon Banco Commercial Portugues fell 11.3% to record-breaking low levels. Euro is traded at the level of 1.0543 against the greenback with a surplus in 0.1%. The American dollar spread out earlier because of hedge moods in the markets while the British pound caught a tendency for growth of traditional assets and fell to 2-1/2-month minima in 1.2107 from the level of 1.2166 against US dollar. The Swiss franc still cuts profit from hedgers, meanwhile receiving a boost from rally on precious metals. We relatively expect Trump’s press conference and new trade reference points later on today.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

The greenback continues its fall as the taken place Trump’s press conference left many questions without answers for example such as taxes and fiscal policy. The majority of the stipulated questions concerned world trade and a commercial competition were differently displayed in the markets today. So approximate data on rates for the Chinese export pushed the Asian markets up and competitive views of the pharmacological prices undermined the European funds. The MSCI index in the region grew up by 0.63% to its three-months maxima while Shanghai Composite extended for 0.24% and the Japanese Nikkei weakened for 0.92% as the yen got stronger against the background of weak greenback that limited competitiveness of the export companies. Wall Street indexes added from 0.3 to 0.5% while the Australian ASX lost 0.1% and the Canadian TSX added 0.4%. The American dollar continues to dive down showing especially high volatility in recent days. The index of US dollar lost 0.3% and fell to 101.520 — its three-months minima while profitability of treasury bonds fell to 2.334% — minima of October. The Australian dollar grows because of rally on the share of mining companies and here the Canadian dollar trades below most of competitors because of weak oil prices.

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

The growth of European stock indexes was on the сhopping bloc after Donald Trump during the press conference repeatedly emphasized the dissatisfaction with a price competition on drugs that led to fall of the European health indexes. For today the European health funds lost 0.74% whereas the all-European Stoxx 600 was closed with losses in 0.22%. Meanwhile, the British FTSE opens new record maxima with a surplus in 0.2%, French CAC lost 0.3% and German DAX weakened for 0.1%. Euro is traded at the level of 1.0602 against the American dollar while the British pound remains unstable to the competition however nevertheless could jump aside from its 10 weeks minima from $1,2048 to 1,2203 against US dollar. The Swiss franc still uses attention of hedgers and the recovered rally to gold that supports him above most of main competitors.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

Orders for the Japanese machine equipment fell to its minima of seven months that indicates the prospects of reducing capital expenditures. For today, indexes in the region are traded only with a minute increase accepting its attention comments from Trump in the relation of trade policy and performance of FRS officials this week. The MSCI index added 0.1% while the Japanese shares lost 0.3%. Wall Street indexes are traded in different directions: Nasdaq Composite added 0.5%, S&P 500 grew up by 0.2% and Dow Jones weakened for 0.3% because of the weakened demand for manufactured goods. The Australian ASX and TSX in Canada added 0.5%. In November orders for the Japanese machine equipment dropped by 5.1% in comparison with October indicators which considerably exceeded its average forecasts at 1.7%. The dollar grew up by 0.2% to the level of 101.390 relatively to its two-month maxima against a basket of principal currencies but it is traded more weakly than the Japanese yen, at the level of 114.24. The Japanese yen consisting in highly notable correlation with the stock index of Nikkei grew up against the majority of principal currencies having limited the trade potential of exporters. The Canadian and Australian dollars hold defensive positions against the background of low demand in the raw markets. The markets are concerned by the future inauguration of Trump during which the prospects of new administration trade policy can clear up including the relation of the Asian region and corresponding rates.

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

For today, the European stock indexes are traded quite inertly with a turn on bank shares and continuously growing British FTSE on the agenda. In the European markets with new forces there is a Brexit-panic connected with the speech of the prime minister of Great Britain, Theresa May approaching this week within which she will inflame the set of certificates towards «hard landing» of regional economy following the results of a gap many trade relations with the single market. Earlier on Friday the all-European Stoxx Europe 600 closed with growth at 0.6% while the European bank index grew up by 2% which was promoted by prospects of an interest rate development in the USA while the European index of car makers grew up by 0.8% having recovered after scandal over the Fiat Chrysler and the nature protection organizations. The chief executive of Fiat declared that the broken laws of emissions won’t have any influence on the purposes of the current business plan of the car maker. The British pound is traded at the level of its three-months minima because of feeling anxious about Brexit and speech of the Bank of England head Carney which will take place today and most likely will be bearish in the relation to monetary policy. The European currency weakened against most of its competitors and is traded at the level of 1.0610 against the greenback. The Swiss franc is still stable and received a boost for growth because of growing prices on gold which opened with a surplus in 0.5% today. This week world trade promises to be weak waiting for more exact reference points of development which can emerge after the inauguration of the newly elected U.S. President on Friday.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

The Biggest Divorce of the year

This year the divorce proceedings between the U.K. and the European Union’s will begin. It’s the end of a four-decade relationship. What has happened? In June 2016, British voters insisted on the referendum ending up with a breakup. Still there’s no blueprint of how to unwind the relationships. What is going to happen next? The U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May set a deadline, after which the two sides are supposed to have two years to reach a settlement. It can easily drag on even to the next decade. The U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May hasn’t specified what she wants to achieve, but she has sent signals that her priorities are: immigration control, getting out of the European courts jurisdiction and cutting back or eliminating money to Brussels. She may even will to give up access to the bloc’s single market for goods and services. On the other side of the bottle, the EU leaders have warned Theresa May that she won’t be able to participate in tariff-free trade without allowing the EU citizens to work and live in any country that’s a member of the club. Showing that the government knows just what it’s up against, Brexit Secretary David Davis has described the talks the most «complicated negotiation of all time».

 

NewForex Analyst

David Fineberg

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

This week the regional markets are still weak because of two large performances one of which will take place today and this speech of the British prime minister Theresa May concerning an exit from Brexit. Trumps is preparing his speech to address people at the end of the week within the inauguration. These days besides the fluent criticism of the tax plan of Ryan from Trump also undermined interest of participants of the markets in speculative trading. The regional index MSCI weakened for 0.1% while the Japanese Nikkei decreased by 0.4% having lost a bit because of the strengthened yen and is traded near its five-week minima. The Wall Street stock indexes were closed in different directions again: Dow lost 0.3% while Nasdaq and S&P added 0.5 and 0.2%. The Australian ASX weakened almost at 0.9% and the Canadian TSX at 0.1%. The greenback took defensive positions and is traded at the level of 114.200 against the JPY after recovering from half-month minima in 113.610. The Australian dollar which is sensitive to risks lost 0.1% against the greenback but is traded stronger than most of competitors against the background of bullish data from the real estate market while the Canadian dollar received a boost for growth because of the developed oil prices. For today oil is traded with a surplus in 0.3% in the markets for goods.

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

The European stock indexes weakened a little just before the speech of the prime minister of Britain Theresa May which will take place later on today. We expect that the performance will cause the spotlight to be shone on the plan of an exit from the EU which attracts significant risks for trade between Great Britain and the single market. According to early notes of Mae it won’t be realized: many industries will suffer. The all-European Stoxx 600 lost 0.2% while the British FTSE continues to grow and is traded near its recent record maxima because of the weakened pound sterling provided to goods of the British exporters, the most profitable prices from the point of view of the competition. Сonsumer spendings in Britain grew meanwhile according to a yesterday’s speech of the head of BoE Mark Carney that can serve as the soil for growth of households borrowings. The European currency is traded defensively but a little recovered from the early losses which were received at the beginning of the session — approximately in 0.38%. At the same time the British pound came off its half-month minima in 1.1983 against USD and is traded at the level of 1.2052 for today. The Swiss franc continues to grow and trades above most of competitors because of sensitivity to dynamics of risk in the markets which led gold to $1.20786 for ounce — to its highest rate in two months.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Lowering of sterling on Brexit anxiety; investors hope for Trump to clarify the situation

On Monday sterling slid to its three-month lows in Asia with investors again spooked by concerns over Britain’s exit from the European Union as U.S. policy uncertainty lingered ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. The regional share markets were really hesitant with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan with up to 0.09 percent. Japan’s Nikkei eased at 0.3 percent, while Australia added 0.5 percent. All the early action was in currencies where the pound became as low as $1.1983 and it is not seen the depths since the flash crash of October which was finished around $1.2175 in New York on Friday. It was last down 1.1 percent at $1.2044. Dealers undermined that the market was reacting in part to a report in the Sunday Times that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will use a special speech on Tuesday to signal plans for a «hard Brexit», quitting the EU’s single market to return control of Britain’s borders. Investors have been worried with such a decisive break from the single market would hurt British exports and drive foreign investment out of the country. Analysts at JPMorgan wrote in a note that it is impossible to say by how much a hard Brexit could weaken GBP, but we do not believe that a further 5-10 percent depreciation should be regarded as an extreme scenario when set aside the UK’s high dependence on foreign capital. The safe-haven Japanese yen was benefited by the flight from sterling, with the pound down 1.3 percent to 137.57 yen while the U.S. dollar dipped to 114.24. Currencies gyrating on very little volume as the trading was erratic. The dollar edged up 0.2 percent to 101.390 on a basket of currencies. Meanwhile the euro pared initial losses to stand at $1.0632.

 

NewForex Analyst

Michael Butnitsky

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

Donald Trump: «The strong dollar, in particular against the Chinese yuan kills our economy». Bearish notes considering the American dollar helped the Asian markets to feel their way and to make a start to November’s maxima thanks to deployment in some emerging markets. Trump’s comments helped to facilitate the pressure upon yuan and upon the Chinese shares that helped to suspend capital outflow from Asia. The common regional MSCI index grew up by 0.4% while the Japanese Nikkei added 0.45%. The Wall Street shares weakened against the background of the growing doubts in prospects of the stimulating policy of the newly elected president: losses constituted from 0.3 to 0.6% on the key stock exchange indexes. At the same time, the Chinese CSI 300 added nearly 0.6% having partially offset losses from last week. The greenback’s index decreased up to 100.64 against its main competitors having departed from its 2002 maxima which the greenback had the last time with the level of 103.82 about two weeks ago, on the third of January. The Canadian dollar became stronger thanks to the bullish prospects of monetary policy and the Australian dollar also grew up at the expense of China — the largest trading partner. Today we expect the decision on an interest rate from the Bank of Canada and also a number of comments on monetary policy from the chairman of U.S. Fed Yellen which can pledge the further directions for market trends on the above mentioned assets.

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

The European stock indexes are traded in flat against the background of bullish comments of the prime minister of Britain in the relation of prospects of the country’s depature from the EU. May noted that to weaken rigidity of market’s landing, the decision to bring up a final question of an exit for parliamentary vote is made. Besides, the prime minister noted that she intends to do everything possible to keep exclusive partnership with the European partner. The all-European Stoxx Europe 600 weakened at 0.12%, having restored 0.6% of early losses directly after Theresa May’s performance. For today the British FTSE 100 opened with losses in 1.5% because of the developed pound sterling while the German DAX 30 weakened at 0.2% and French CAC 40 lost 0.08%. Recently, the European bank and other cyclic shares rallied in order to promote growth of eurobonds fed profitability for financial incentives and deregulation of trading activities from new administration of the US. The British pound sterling grew up by 0.14% against other principal currencies having shared competitive positions with the European colleague who added 0.9% and is traded at the level of 1.0684 against US dollar. The Swiss franc became stronger against euro, yen and pound because of investors tendency to protect the assets from the current financial risks. Today we watch the European news at the head of which reading on unemployment in Britain and inflation in the eurozone.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

Today the stock indexes in the region fell after the US dollar was recovered against the background of bull statements on behalf of U.S. Fed. Therewith the Ministry of Trade of China declared that China and the United States can solve properly any trade problems by dialogue and cooperation as the quarrel is unprofitable to both parties that also promoted strengthening of the American currency. The MSCI index of the region lost 0.4% while the Japanese Nikkei grew up by 1% against the background of the weakened yen. The Wall Street was closed in different directions: industrial Dow lost 0.1% while high-technology Nasdaq Composite added 0.3% and the blue chip index of S&P 500 was closed with a surplus in 0.2%. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong dropped by 0.62% while the Chinese Shanghai Composite weakened at 0.13%. The Australian ASX grew up by 0.28% and the Canadian TSX lost 0.26%. The American dollar grew up by 0.32% against the basket of principal currencies and became stronger at the level of 101.22. The greenback showed very impressive rally at the beginning of the session against yen but then departed to the level of 114.50. The Australian dollar got the upper hand of today’s growth because of the growing demand for iron ore and shares of mining companies. The Canadian, on the contrary, took defensive positions because of the developed oil prices.

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

In Europe the stock indexes are traded in a flat at the same time there is observed a limited growth among bank and other cyclic shares and also steadier growth among mining companies and in section of the precious metals which are traditionally acting as the tool for hedging of financial risks. The all-European STOXX Europe 600 grew up by 1.6% while the main indexes are traded in different directions: the German DAX with a surplus of 0.8%, the British FTSE with growth of 0.4% and the French SAS with losses in 0.25%. However in the medium term it is possible to expect considerable improvements in the European stock market — after settling uncertainty around the stimulating Trump’s plans. At the same time support of China in the relation had more than ever and now the administration of the USA can expect surely the maximum return after raises this question once again. The European currency became stronger with a surplus at 0.12% against main competitors waiting for officials meeting of the European Central Bank who cut off the stimulating program last month and will leave monetary policy without any changes this time as it is expected. Meanwhile the pound sterling also grew up by 0.1% and is traded at the level of 1.2275 against US dollar after the Great Britain prime minister Theresa May which besieged panic in the market having promised to mitigate landing of the market due to parliamentary vote on Brexit and also vigilant participation of the government in preserving warm partnership with the single market. The Swiss franc is still stable at the expense of hedgers and trades above the majority of principal currencies.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov