NewForex — Forex news (daily)

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

Stock indices around the world are mostly in negative territory today, due to the growing yield of US Treasury bonds. It lifted the dollar higher nine-month highs after some positive economic data spurred expectations the growth of the Federal funds rate.

The global MSCI stock Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) gave 0.3% due to the heightened interest in risk. At the same time, the Nikkei added 0.63 percent due to the weakened currency. Meanwhile in Australia composite S&P\ASX weakened by 0.22%. The yen retreated into defensive positions against other major currencies. The Australian dollar strengthened against the yen only.

In September, officials BoJ changed the strategy of monetary policy. In pursuit of 2% inflation by intention to control the yield curve they hold the yield on 10-year government bonds at 0%. But today, many economists think that this approach is not able to justify themselves in the environment where the yen is traditionally entrenched in the minds of investors as a tool for hedging financial risks.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: North America

Positive data from the United States including data from the labor market, housing sales, and data on manufacturing activity strengthened the prospects for the growth rates fed funds at the end of the year raising the yield of Treasury bonds.

Trading stocks wall street, respectively, have suffered because of the stronger near 9-month highs currency: Nasdaq Composite index gave up 0.65 percent and the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones losing 0.30 and 0.16%, respectively. The US dollar index is at the level of expanding 98.880 achieved 0.2% growth earlier on Thursday. In the weekly rate index added 0.3%, slightly ahead of its nine-month high. Canadian composite S&P/TSX added 0.18%, while the loonie is stable, strengthening against the Japanese yen, Australian dollar and British.

Markets focused on the upcoming presidential elections in the United States scheduled for 8 November. The major economic changes that expect the whole world can become relevant tax reform, support of course of expensive money from the trump or the policy of low interest rates (by Clinton), as well as a number of tangible changes in foreign economic and political activities. In addition today, we will see data on US GDP, which is expected by most economists, will show a satisfactory result.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

European stock continued to fall, reflecting weaknesses in the financial sector in the Euro area. Comparative IBEX in Spain, meanwhile, shows that the country is in a political standstill end and lost 0.6% after lawmakers agreed to represent the conservative, Mariano Rajoy, to a second term as Prime Minister. The index fell 4.2% this year.

 

The pan-European Stoxx 600 lost −0.5%. Capital is moving to Asian countries. Oil and gas index Stoxx 600 fell by −1.5% as the market revives fears that OPEC will achieve additional prospects for the initiative to reduce oil production. Such measures, as experience shows, so far only in the short term affect on excess supply, leaving the oil under the pressure of long-term depreciation of the assets.

 

Thus, today we can observe only a short-term burst of interest in the stock. It may be supported for some time by positive data from China, but it is more appreciably returning investment interest in risky assets.

 

NewForex Analyst

 

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

The largest Asian economy — China has published a report on manufacturing activity for October. They recorded the fastest pace of expansion performance of commercial and national businesses over the last two years. The report noted that the credit and housing boom stabilized the economy.

 

At the same time, the Bank of Japan provided a modest inflation forecasts. It is expected that this will significantly affect the stock market soon. It is also expected that the Federal reserve will leave monetary policy unchanged on Wednesday. Officials will use the next meeting to prepare the ground for raising interest rates in December.

 

The largest MSCI stock Asia-Pacific region outside of Japan today added +0.23%, mainly due to the fact that the Chinese data revived interest in to traditional assets. At the same time, the Japanese Nikkei 225 rose by +0.10 percent due to the weakened yen, which opened the prospects for the competitiveness of exporters.Stock indexes on wall street closed in negative territory due to the stabilised US dollar: S&P 500 lost −0.01% and the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones lost −0.02 and −0.10%, respectively. Australia’s S&P/ASX eased on the-0.51% due to stronger Australian dollar, despite record low interest rates, fixed by RBA today, while the canadian S&P/TSX remained in expansion territory, up +0.01%.

 

The Japanese yen is trading weaker against most major currencies, while the greenback strengthened against pound, yen and European currencies. The Australian dollar remains the growth leader this week, trading above all major currencies. Canadian only slightly inferior to Aussie, and also strengthened against most currencies.

 

NewForex Analyst

 

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

European stocks remain in negative territory, due to growing weakness in many sectors of the economy, mainly in the financial sector, and in employment and the manufacturing sector. In addition, the uncertainty in the results of the presidential elections in the United States also influenced the interest of investors in traditional assets.

 

The pan-European Stoxx 600 slipped 1.1 percent, with losses across all sectors and in addition, to the weakest level since February 20 this year. The volatility index rose to the September highs reflecting the tendency of investors to work with high-risk asset classes.

 

The Euro strengthened against most other currencies of the other major currencies, while the British and Swiss Krona are also popular, due to growing interest for precious metals. In general, the financial market in Europe has potential for recovery and even growth in the long term. And here we should follow the policy of the European Central Bank. It can stand in the way of further monetary stimulus early next year, especially in case of Trump’s victory in the presidential election in the United States.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

Stock indices of the АТР region weakened today. The greenback also left weakened amid growing prospects of the Republican candidate Donald Trump victory in the upcoming elections after a scandal involving the FBI about the correspondence of Clinton.

 

The MSCI stock Asia-Pacific region outside Japan gave up 0.4%, while Nikkei 225 lost 1.1% today. S&P/ASX 200 in Australia slipped 1.45% and the canadian S&P/TSX loses 0.06%. Stock of companies from the United States also declined: S&P 500 gave up 0.68%, the Nasdaq lost 0.69% and the Dow Jones fell by 0.58%.

 

The dollar weakened slightly due to the rethinking of the prospects for monetary policy of the United States on the part of investors, given the growing prospects for Trump to win. He welcomes the prospect of protectionism and cheap money. The U.S. dollar weakened against the yen and the Swiss franc. The yen rose against other competing currencies, as investors began to hedge financial risks.The canadian dollar has appreciated only against the Aussie, who has gone into defensive position in relation to all the key basket of competing currencies. We observe the meeting of the officials of the Federal reserve system. It is expected that they will leave monetary policy unchanged but will discuss the prospects of tightening in December.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

European stocks are also showing signs of weakness, burdened by the outflow of capital, weak industrial activity and enhanced uncertainty about growth prospects after the elections in the United States. In addition, the production of drugs was significantly eased due to the fact that officials of the U.S. Congress called on Federal antitrust regulators to investigate possible price-fixing.

 

The pan-European Stoxx 600 fell 0.8 percent, while the Eurofirst 300 lost 0.79%, which demonstrates the largest weekly drop from February. The index fell amid growing interest in risk and trades near the lowest level in the last six months. The Euro is trading weaker against most currencies, but strengthened against the British. The Swiss franc is only slightly ahead of the Euro and British pound sterling.

 

Today the attention of global investors is fully committed to the presidential elections in the United States, which significantly undermines the interest of investors in traditional asset classes and already after the election we can expect some certainty in the future dynamics of the development of market relations between regions.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

Asian stocks rose due to the weakened yen. The us dollar also began to grow from the growing interest in risky assets, as the FBI pointed out the lack of need to continue the investigation against Clinton. This significantly strengthened her chances of winning the presidential election tomorrow.

 

The extensive MSCI stock Asia-Pacific outside Japan gained 0.8%, while the Nikkei 225 was up 1.61%. At the same time, S&P/ASX in Australia rose by 1.35% and the S&P/TSX in Canada has lost 0.51%. Stocks on wall street showed signs of weakness due to a stronger U.S. dollar: S&P 500 slipped 0.17%, while the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones lost 0.24% each.

 

The Japanese yen is defending against a number of currencies, including the greenback and the Aussie, but it is harder than sterling, with the Euro and the Swiss franc, while the us dollar was beaten out in leaders of growth today. The Aussie strengthened against the currency basket, but it is still weaker than the American. Canadian currency rises against the British, Euro and the Swiss franc. Many investors believe unconditionally that now Clinton will win the election, which may serve as a stimulus for the growth of the American currency, considering strengthened interest to risk in the markets.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

Stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region experienced a considerable rise today because of the growing investor confidence in the prospects for the victory of Hillary Clinton in the presidential election in the United States. The election results will become known tomorrow. We remind you that the FBI has closed the investigation against a democratic candidate and this has strengthened investor confidence in the victory of a more stable and predictable candidate.

 

The MSCI World index has not practically changed. It has retained a 1.6% increase from Monday. MSCI Asia-Pacific ex Japan added 0.3%, while Japan Nikkei 225 gave up 0.2% due to stronger hedges on the yen. Stocks of Wall Street demonstrate a raise today: S&P 500 gained 2.22%, the Nasdaq rose 2.37% and the Dow Jones edged up 2.08%. S&P/ASX in Australia and the Canadian S&P/TSX rose by 0.13 and 0.99%. The Chinese CSI 300 added 0.5%.

 

The Japanese yen has secured growth at the expense of investors that are hedging risks. It reached a leading position in relation to other currencies. The US dollar is only slightly inferior to the Japanese counterpart. The Australian and Canadian dollar traded lower than most major currencies and provides an increase in stock indexes. Tomorrow we will know the results of the presidential elections in the United States that is likely to support the bullish trend for the US dollar and the Japanese yen.

 

NewForex Analyst

 

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

Stock indices of Europe rose. It has experienced rising interest of investors in banking shares. The driver for this growth was the positive forecasts concerning the prospects of victory of the democratic candidate in the presidential election in USA, which can significantly improve the financial relationship between the States and Europe.

 

The pan-European Stoxx 600 has expanded by 1.5%, due to the growing interest in traditional asset classes that can experience the timely growth to stabilize political-economic relations between the major economic regions. Energy shares traded mixed due to stronger uncertainties in the prospects for further regulation of competitive conditions.

 

The European currency show mixed prospects: the U.K. currency unexpectedly began to rise after laying a restraining order for the initiative to start the procedure for exit from the European Union from the Prime Minister Theresa May. It was only delayed, but did not save the British from having to provide this economic-political maneuver. Euro leads in the fall that also served as a signal for growth stocks.At the same time, the Swiss franc experienced the growth of the banking sector and currency.

 

NewForex Analyst

 

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

European stocks have fallen today, cutting off prospects for growth received at the beginning of the week. The uncertainty of trade relations between Europe and the United States in connection with the Trump victory strengthened. This forces investors to use a hedging instruments before the situation is more or less clear. Overall retail ambitions of Trump will work for benefit of Europe.

 

The FTSE 100 in Britain lost 4.1% at the open, while the DAX in Germany slid by 4.3% and the CAC 40 in France is losing 4.2%. The pan-European STOXX 600 lost 0.32%. The Euro is a leader second only to the Japanese yen. The Briton has strengthened against its Australian and Canadian counterparts and the Swiss franc is also stronger than most currencies.

 

Trump officially won the elections in the United States. Now the global markets are waiting for any statements and actions which are able to disperse the uncertainty and to facilitate adaptation in the conditions of a new political and economic life. This would significantly change if believe in political-economic program of the Republican President

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

World stocks and the U.S. dollar has fallen today as unexpectedly strengthened prospects for Trump victory. Investors and political experts were not prepared for the devastating victory of the Republicans, who is now able to undermine the global political and economic stability.

 

Stock indices in Asia sustain significant losses. This is loosening the MSCI Asian Pacific ex Japan 0.3% and Nikkei 225 by 5.4% today. On wall street, stocks fluctuated but increased due to the prospects of loose monetary policy from Trump’s: S&P 500 rose 0.38%, while Nasdaq and Dow Jones industrial average added 0.53 and 0.40%. S&P/ASX gone negative zone at 1.92%, while the S&P/TSX in Canada has slightly increased by 0.03%, entrenched in positive territory.

 

The Japanese yen strengthened on the hedgers and collapsed the stock market. The U.S. dollar weakened against most of the main currencies, strengthening only against the Aussie and the loonie.It took up defensive positions against a basket of major currencies. Markets accompany Trump victory uncertainty in relation to monetary policy, trade prospects of the United States, as well as political relations with other countries. Later today, we expect average crude oil inventories from the Energy Information Administration. It will give some short guidelines on the prospects of a strengthening currency. We remind you that Trump defends the interests of trade and production, pointing to the need for easy monetary policy that could have a negative impact on the growth of the US dollar.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

European stocks rose after the Trump victory finding in his political program not only prospects for a reversal, but subsequent growth that was significantly manifested among drug manufacturers and the financial sector. A policy of incentives from the United States — probably what was needed by the markets last year.

 

The pan-European STOXX 600 rose 1.5% lost 2.4% at the open. He struck the highest level since October 31. In General, investors refocused their portfolios on the incentive policy, low taxes and boost trade and interest in traditional assets. This is evidenced by the consolidation of many stock indexes around the world.

 

The British pound is on the defensive position. But the European currency was trading above most others. Swiss franc strengthens against the British and the American dollar. The health sector expanded by 4.6% .Measurable increase in received non-ferrous metals as a means of hedging and traditional metals. It happened due to targeting a significant stimulation of global trade from the new administration.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

Stock indexes in Asia rose, and turned around due to the fact that investors have had to adapt to the victory of the Republican candidate Trump in the presidential election in the United States. At the same time, the U.S. dollar weakened because of the growing prospects of orientation on expansionary policy from the new administration. In addition, a global economic Trump ideas was taken to advantage by investors, for example low taxes for manufacturers.

 

The MSCI index for Asian shares-ex Japan Pacific lost 2%, and the Nikkei 225 in Japan, on the contrary, turned out to increase almost 7%, after losing about 5 percent. Stocks on Wall Street are also on the rise: the Dow Jones rose by 1.40%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 gained 1.11%. The comparative S&P/ASX and S&P/TSX in Canada and Australia added ASX: +3.34% and lost TSX: +0.70% .

 

The greenback went on the defensive position while the Japanese yen leading the gains against the other major currencies. This does not prevent the national stock market to show significant growth. The Aussie strengthened against most currencies, as the Loonie traded lower the major currencies. Expectations in relation to cost increases and inflation affiliated with Trump and the yield on 10-year bonds jumped to 16-month highs to 1.87%.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

Stock indices in Europe are suffering losses when opening. They are weakening because of the possibility that the new President will stimulate productive activity. This also led to a rise in government bond yields and currency but undermined the basic security, including significant weakening of the utilities.

 

The pan-European STOXX 600 was seen with losses of 0.3% at the open stock exchange. Previously, he rose to two-week highs. A significant benefit from rising bond yields fell on financial companies. It has already suffered much from the accommodative monetary policy of the ECB. Prospects for the reduction and easing of regulatory measures of corporate tax, advocated by Trump, can ensure the growth of the financial sector of Europe.

 

The European currency traded higher than most currencies, like the Swiss Krone and British pound sterling. However, economists recommend to refrain from transactions in these days while the macro-dynamics will not become more transparent. Market participant should wait until it’s overshadowing all the uncertainty about the real economic incentives that will be solved by the new American administration in the near future.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

Asian stocks weakened on Friday amid growing fears of investors in relation to monetary policy posed by the new US President. It is able to provoke the outflow of capital from the regions. Trump is betting on protectionism and fiscal expansion. He risks to accelerate inflation so that he will have to move away from initiatives of weak money and the fed will raise rates next month.

 

The MSCI stock Asian-Pacific ex Japan gave up 1.4%, while the Nikkei 225 was behind in growth by 0.18%, rebounding from a weakening of the yen to the level of 6-month highs. Wall street closed mixed: the Nasdaq lost 0.8%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average added 0.3 and 1.2%, respectively. The comparative S&P/ASX Australian shares added 0.79%, while the S&P/TSX canadian weakened by 0.11%.

 

The yen is on the defensive position. It is ensuring the growth of the stock market. The US dollar is beaten out in leaders of growth. The Canadian and Australian dollar also traded low. This indicates growing interest in traditional asset classes. At the same time, the 10-year US treasury bonds rose to 10-month highs. There is every reason to believe that the fed will raise rates next month preventing risks of overheating.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

In Europe, indices are trading mixed, but generally go in the direction of the downward trend, answering the weakened metallurgical sectors, as well as the growing protectionist policies of the new President of the United States.

 

The pan-European Stoxx 600 lost 0.4 percent, interrupting a series of victories last week, added 2.6%, the best weekly result for the last 6 months. The energy index lost 2.1%, while the index of the mining sector lost about 2%, pointing to disappointing news from the OPEC, who do not see ways for a final solution to the problems of supply due to its regular contraction.

 

The EUR trades weaker than most of the main currencies, but it trades higher against the yen, while the Swiss franc received support from rising gold prices, the growing financial sector and the propensity of investors to hedge financial risks through the assets. The British pound is trading higher against the yen and the Euro, but below the other major currencies. In General, we must admit that the European markets have quickly adjusted to winning of Trump, and is already preparing for the first stages of his protectionist policies.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

Asian stocks weakened on Monday. The U.S. dollar reached a nine-month high against a basket of major currencies, pointing to the prospects of inflation accelerating and expanding of budget deficits. It threatens the outflow of capital for many emerging markets.

 

The broad MSCI Asia-Pacific ex Japan lost 0.99 percent today, reaching six-month lows earlier on Friday. At the same time, Japan’s Nikkei gained 1.6% due to the weakening of the yen. Stocks of Wall street shows mixed results in closing: the Nasdaq added 0.54%, the Dow Jones up 0.21%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.14%.

 

The US dollar strengthened its leading position against other major currencies, while Japanese yen has gone on the defensive position. The Canadian dollar is trading higher against the yen, British and Australian, while the Australian dollar traded higher than most major currencies, second only to the American. 10-year treasury bonds rose to 10-month highs, breaking the yield up to 2.22%. In general, the long-term treasury bonds rises, undermining the investment appeal of emerging markets and opening up prospects for increasing trade competition from the United States.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

Stocks in Europe managed to show the potential to grow before hit a growth of yield bonds. Then it received a boost due to the outflow of capital from Asia. However, the markets soon focused on US bonds which showed a 2.25-percent growth in 10-year bonds. While the 30-year Treasury bonds rose more than 3.0%.

 

The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose about 0.3 percent. We remind that last week the index has added more than 2.5% on winning of Donald Trump. This victory should ensure a sustainable fiscal policy which is useful for cyclical shares affecting the utility sector, the banking sector and the real estate market. Shares of the banking sector, however, rose up 2.2%.

 

The European currency strengthened due to the growing bonds. At the same time, the Swiss franc lost popularity due to growing interest in risk. The pound sterling was kept more or less stable against a number of currencies such as Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Australian dollar. The growth of bonds will continue for some time to stimulate interest in risk. However, in the medium and long term we expect a recovery in traditional asset classes. Also of interest to risk may hit after data on Germany’s GDP and the rate of inflation in the UK.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

Dollar shows tangible prospects for growth received a boost from growth in treasury bonds. Despite the cautious mood in the Asian markets, investors are eyeing such opportunities as open up Bank shares in Hong Kong. In general the acceleration of inflation in the United States triggered capital outflows from Asian markets to European and American bonds.

 

The MSCI ex-Japan lost 0.84%, while the Japanese Nikkei 225 slipped 0.18%. Stock indexes on Wall Street closed mixed: the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 index lost 0.36 and 0.01%, while the Dow Jones rose 0.17%. Comparative S&P/ASX and S&P/TSX: −0.36 and +0.30-% . The US dollar was trading fairly steady today while the yen is hedging the risks of investors and the Canadian dollar and Aussie went into a defensive position.

 

The US dollar index reached a 13-month high. The rising bond yields of Europe and the United States supports the outflow of capital from emerging markets. Thus it is possible to expect acceleration of growth of dollar in the short term.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

European stock indexes rose earlier providing a stimulus derived from rising prices for crude oil and a rebound in utilities and the financial sector. In these actions as well as in real estate investors have decided to be hedged at the time of the global break.

 

The STOXX Europe 600 rose 0.3% at the end of the session.But this year the index lost 7%. There are strong expectations for a major financial stimulus in the financial sector of Europe secured a new US President.

 

Rising bond yields reduced the pressure on the financial sector. This removed one of the most important constraints. Thus, the pause in trading bonds tied to profit-taking among the financial shares. The shares of oil companies rose by 2.64%. European currency strengthened significantly against major currencies of the Asia-Pacific region. Today we expect news from the UK labour market that can affect the dynamics of the British pound.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

Bond trading slowed today as investors took profits in traditional asset classes. Earlier, bonds gained a sufficient impetus to growth after Trump’s winning. But today the stocks of Wall street are growing away from four-month lows reached earlier. Strong retail sales in the US have also strengthened expectations of rising interest rates in December. The sharp rise in yields of US bonds attracted investors to the dollar. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies reached its highest level in for almost a year on Tuesday.

 

The MSCI Asian Pacific ex Japan gained 0.64 percent today, while the Nikkei 225 in Japan rose 1.14% and overcame a nine-month high. The yen went into a defensive position today. Stocks on Wall street rose: industrial Dow Jones added 0.31% and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.74 and 1.11%. TSX in Canada and ASX in Australia gained 1.08 and 0.03% .

 

Plans of the newly elected President of the United States against tax cuts and increased infrastructure spending will boost demand. Initiative to deport illegal immigrants and to impose tariffs on cheap imports are considered in a benefit for rising inflation. Such a perspective entails the growing expectations of rising interest rates and a stronger dollar. But investors also think about what other opportunities may open Trump’s policy. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell to 2.207% compared to 11-month highs reached on Monday (2,302%) despite the fact that this level skyrocketed from about the level of 1.86% before the election. Retail sales in the U.S. grew faster than expected indicating the economy’s resilience. This allows the fed to raise rates next month.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

Stock indices in Europe are trading weaker today. But it’s still near multi-month highs as it stepped on a weak predictions in the oil market caused by the resulting conflict of interests between the providers in respect of the volume of supply in the markets. The European currency is trading near the yearly highs.

 

The pan-European STOXX 600 erased earlier 0.23%. Cyclical sectors suffered today from profit taking. After the victory of the new President renewed hope for the growth stock, cyclical spikes in bond yields threaten to significantly limit it.

 

The Euro strengthened against the British, the Australian dollar and the yen. At the same time the pound is only slightly inferior to the single currency. The Swiss franc also stable. Currencies are traded in close proximity to many-month highs. Global markets subsided and separated from active purchases of US government bonds started in the beginning of the week. The profitableness on 10-year Japanese bonds remained stable at the level of 0.035%. Profitability returned to previous values after the Bank of Japan increased the supply of JGBs in the markets. Officials of the Central Bank stated in September that they will keep the benchmark profitableness of about zero percent.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

The U.S. dollar retreated from 13.5-month highs today after the yield on Treasury bonds declined, due to investors retaining the profits. Meanwhile, Japanese government bonds also retreated from the highs after BoJ put them on unlimited sale.

 

The MSCI Asian Pacific ex Japan gained 0.12%. This week, however, the index has already managed to lose 1%, due to toughening of monetary-credit regulation in the markets including the growing prospect of rising interest rates. This may lead to outflow of money from emerging markets. The Nikkei 225 lost 0.1%. This can be called a rather triumphant loss, after earlier the index suffered from a tangible increase in the yen. The Australian ASX gained 0.20% and the canadian TSX lost 0.16%. The US dollar index which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of major currencies retreated from the highs 100.570 .

 

The U.S. dollar rose when the newly elected President gave the capacity to support a tight monetary policy. The Japanese yen went into a defensive position. CAD traded higher most major currencies, while AUD has weakened significantly against its competitors.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

Stock markets in Asia weakened on Friday, accompanying the growth of yields of Treasury bonds of the United States. This has led to a rise in the U.S. dollar to more than one-year highs against a basket of major currencies. The prospects for accelerating inflation in the US has consolidated the investment activity in emerging markets, encouraging investors to interact with the risky asset classes.

 

The largest in the Asia-Pacific region outside of Japan, the MSCI index eased 0.4 percent and is seen near 4-month lows. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained more than 0.5% today, due to the weakened yen contributed to the growth in business activity. Stock indexes on Wall street are rising: the Nasdaq rose 0.75%, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 added 0.19 and 0.47%. The Australian ASX, Canadian TSX expanded by 0.39 and 0.63%, respectively, reflecting interest in raw materials.

 

The U.S. dollar leads to gains against other major currencies, while the yen took a defensive position. The Briton and Canadian stabilized and strengthened against most currencies. The rising bond yields also reflects the revaluation of the market prospects for investors amid growing probability of rate increases by the fed, although the Central Bank Chairman Yellen already told you that Trump elections had no impact on the goals of the Federal reserve system. However, expectations have changed from the CME Group and FedWatch shows approximately a 90% chance of a rate hike in December. The dollar rose 110.34 against the yen, it is highest level since early June. The Euro fell to $1.0620, indicating the lowest level in the current year. The US dollar index is seen at highest level since April 2003.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

Stock indexes in Europe are growing, picking up funneling emerging Asian markets equity and have support of weak currencies, expanding business activity in the regions. In some countries, Bank stocks fell, but in general are rising, reflecting investor interest in cyclical stocks.

 

The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose about 0.6 percent, while the European banking index rose 0.3%. Basic industries showed an increase of 1.6 pending the strengthening of commodity prices. This contributes significantly to today’s policy of the new President designed to strengthen the development initiatives of infrastructure projects.

 

The European currency weakened against most other competing currencies. The Swiss franc is stable and is trading above most currencies. And the British pound sterling is still weak and indicates a weak investment and business activity in the region due to growing uncertainty about future scenario of the UK.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

Stock markets in Asia weakened on Friday, accompanying the growth of yields of Treasury bonds of the United States. This has led to a rise in the U.S. dollar to more than one-year highs against a basket of major currencies. The prospects for accelerating inflation in the US has consolidated the investment activity in emerging markets, encouraging investors to interact with the risky asset classes.

 

The largest in the Asia-Pacific region outside of Japan, the MSCI index eased 0.4 percent and is seen near 4-month lows. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained more than 0.5% today, due to the weakened yen contributed to the growth in business activity. Stock indexes on Wall street are rising: the Nasdaq rose 0.75%, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 added 0.19 and 0.47%. The Australian ASX, Canadian TSX expanded by 0.39 and 0.63%, respectively, reflecting interest in raw materials.

 

The U.S. dollar leads to gains against other major currencies, while the yen took a defensive position. The Briton and Canadian stabilized and strengthened against most currencies. The rising bond yields also reflects the revaluation of the market prospects for investors amid growing probability of rate increases by the fed, although the Central Bank Chairman Yellen already told you that Trump elections had no impact on the goals of the Federal reserve system. However, expectations have changed from the CME Group and FedWatch shows approximately a 90% chance of a rate hike in December. The dollar rose 110.34 against the yen, it is highest level since early June. The Euro fell to $1.0620, indicating the lowest level in the current year. The US dollar index is seen at highest level since April 2003.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

Stock indexes in Europe are growing, picking up funneling emerging Asian markets equity and have support of weak currencies, expanding business activity in the regions. In some countries, Bank stocks fell, but in general are rising, reflecting investor interest in cyclical stocks.

 

The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose about 0.6 percent, while the European banking index rose 0.3%. Basic industries showed an increase of 1.6 pending the strengthening of commodity prices. This contributes significantly to today’s policy of the new President designed to strengthen the development initiatives of infrastructure projects.

 

The European currency weakened against most other competing currencies. The Swiss franc is stable and is trading above most currencies. And the British pound sterling is still weak and indicates a weak investment and business activity in the region due to growing uncertainty about future scenario of the UK.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

Shares of Asia-Pacific region are trading weak today after the increase in US yields has undermined growth of markets with emerging economies triggering the outflow of funds from the regions. In the result the emerging economies are dumping their assets while growing the US dollar opens broad prospects for aggressive monetary initiatives of the fed in the coming month.

 

The widest index of MSCI in securities of Asia Pacific without Japan lost 0.1% and trades near six-month lows. Nikkei 225 gained 0.4% on weak yen, and jumped to 11-month highs. Shares on Wall street also weakened: the Dow Jones lost 0.19%, the S&P and the Nasdaq lost 0.24 and 0.23%.

 

Many emerging market currencies remain under pressure due to fears of investors that their money can return back to the US. The Malaysian ringgit came to a 14-month low while the Philippine peso reached a low of 2008. The US dollar strengthened in mid-year highs against the yen, which is on the defensive position today. Aussie is seen near five-month lows. The Canadian dollar received support from the reversal of energy prices and is trading above all major currencies today.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

In Europe, stocks lost value on Friday, but they are recovering today. On Friday investors’ activity was limited due to the interest in cyclical shares and undermined by a drop in shares of miners and power engineers.

 

The pan-European Eurofirst 300 index lost about 0.5% but in general this shows good prospects for growth for the past two weeks. This is largely due to the newly elected US President who wants to increase spending on infrastructure projects. The index of the banking sector in Italy fell 2.5% to its lowest level since October 5. This happened because of the burdened constitutional referendum in the course of which can be removed reformist government of Renzi.

 

The single European currency is stable today. But it is still close to 12-month lows against the U.S. dollar. The Swiss franc is increasing due to growing interest in European financial shares. The British pound weakened against most major currencies. Despite infrastructure plans for the new US President which can raise the price of the metals, their prices can significantly be affected because of the dollar rally. So investors have become more careful to growth of Outlook European equities under the influence of the American President.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

The expectation that the administration of the new President will adopt expansionary fiscal policy leads to an increase in US shares to record levels. It pushes up inflation and expectations of rising interest rates and bond yields and the dollar. On Monday, US stocks closed at a record high.

 

Investors can't bother the earthquake in Northern Japan. The Nikkei remained stable and the yen was weakened to the dollar at around five-month lows. If the manufacturers have stopped operations in their factories in the regions investors would react. But now the impact of the earthquake is limited. The overall trading volume was low ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States and also on expectations of rise in US rates is already factored in by markets.

 

The main indicators have reached record levels while the post-election activity still holds. Easy weakness of the dollar has boosted gold by 0.3%. In general, the price of gold fell by 10% following the results of elections of the United States. Emerging market currencies recovered some of the losses. The Chinese yuan rebounded from near 8-year lows. The markets are rising, volatility levels recede. CBOE volatility index fell 3.4%. Investors invest in traditional assets.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

European shares rise today as investors are set to work with traditional assets. The US dollar weakened slightly. The economic activity of this kind may accelerate inflation in some regions. Hopes on the growth of the commodity sectors due to the infrastructure initiatives of the new President attracted investors to cyclical shares these days.

 

The pan-European Eurofirst 300 rose 0.4 percent on Monday, adding about 0.6% last week. In general, the markets are stable and there are expectations of further fiscal stimulus by the ECB which shows their results with some side.

 

The single currency strengthened against the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. The British pound strengthened against most major counterparties. The Swiss franc is trading weaker against most major currencies today. Constitutional referendum in Italy next month could trigger instability in the region and shares of local companies.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

In Europe we can observe a steady growth of basic sectors of the economy, received a strong stimulus from investments, pursuing the prospects for a speedy development of infrastructure projects and the expansionary trade policy of the newly elected President of the United States. In addition, the initiative to stop promoting the TRANS-Pacific partnership can serve as a foundation for the establishment of new global trade partnerships.

Shares of mining and metallurgical companies increased from 3 to 4% earlier on Tuesday. This contributed to the mobilization of global trade activity in the midst of where we are today. The pan-European Eurofirst 300 rose 0.6% on opening. Metals prices are rising in the range of 4-5% in the largest companies and the European oil and gas index rose 0.9% yesterday.

The European currency weakened. This served as support for the regional stock markets. At the same time the British pound weakened even more and dropped to six-month lows. The Swiss Krona strengthened because of the growing interest in non-ferrous metals. The price of this came out of the flat recently and have not fully realized the potential for growth. Today the expected change of the index of business activity in the European region that could serve as a benchmark for growth in the near future.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

Stock markets in Asia got a boost today. This is mainly in the form of investment support of investors who managed to earn of American rally earlier. This rally today is limited by the growth of Treasury bonds and the U.S. currency. This significantly affects the competitiveness of goods on the market.

Extensive inter-regional MSCI Asian Pacific ex Japan gained more than 0.57% today, rebounding from the lows of four months. On Wall street stocks closed higher: S&P 500 +0.22%, NASDAQ +0.33 percent, Dow Jones up 0.35%. Australian ASX +1,31% and the Canadian TSX +0,40. In other words the major indices rose today, and now look what is happening with the currency.

The U.S. dollar significantly strengthened against the Japanese yen at the level of 111.09 never breaking above the resistance at 111.35. The Japanese yen is trading weakly but stable supporting the interests of foreign trade situation. It’s just an urgent need, taking into account the fading initiative of the TRANS-Pacific partnership, on which the Japanese business community had huge expectations, but that was a disadvantage of the new American administration.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

European shares are trading mixed on Wednesday, showing signs of stability in some industries. Basic industries and cyclical stocks received significant impetus to growth.

You can see diverse opportunities for major stock indexes throughout Europe including Britain. British FTSE has opened in negative territory with a loss of 0.2% while Germany’s DAX added 0.1% and the French CAC of 0.01%. The Stoxx 600 lost 0.07%, after rising the previous two sessions. The European index of basic industries grew by 1.3% after having reached its highest level since mid-2015 amid rising prices for precious metals.

The single currency lost 0.1 percent against the U.S. dollar, reaching the lowest level in two years earlier. This month the Euro depreciated by almost 4% against the other major trade-weighted currencies. The British pound meanwhile strengthened and presses on the stock market amid heightened interest in risk. Europe still relies on fiscal stimulus, which will help to establish the infrastructure and increase the cost of the shares of basic industries.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

Asian stock indexes were affected on Thursday because of the new wave of positive data from the United States to expand the prospects for tightening of monetary policy next month. The yield of the sovereign bonds in the United States significantly increased, breaking multi-year highs.

Equity markets in countries with developing and a developed economy are moving in different directions after the victory of the new President of the United States. The capital flow away from emerging markets to the United States. The MSCI ASIAN-PACIFIC lost 0.41%, due to the shift of investment prospects in the direction of the United States. At the same time, Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.1% secured by the weakened yen. The Australian ASX is up 0.12%, while the TSX in Canada has lost 0.13%.

The yen was trading weak against most major currencies while the dollar rose 0.1 percent against the Japanese currency, strengthening at the level of 112.645, slightly pulling away from early highs. The dollar index against its major rival currencies rose 0.1% and it is close to the level of more than 13-year highs.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

Asian shares rise in global markets. Dollar retreats shares giving US a chance to resume the climb. The Japanese government announced the strengthening of investment activity in the region of $20.9 billion for the July-September quarter. Strong manufacturing and consumer data from the United States strengthened the arguments in favor of higher interest rates.

The MSCI index showed an increase of 0.3% while the Nikkei rose to the highest levels since January. The index is held on a weekly gain of 2.8% and increased 7.6% since election day in the United States. TSX in Canada, −0.04%, and the ASX in Australia +0.41% today. The rise of return on the bonds contributes to capital flight from emerging markets. The yield on 2-year treasury bonds jumped to 6-1\2-year high of 1.1630. 10-year bonds have hit a 16-month max 2.417% this week and remain near 2.4057 today.

The U.S. dollar rose to eight-month highs against the yen and 0.3% compared to yesterday’s closing level 113.67. Only the dollar rose by 2.5% against the yen this week. It is also expected that Japanese consumer prices fell in October, will get the rebound because of the weaker yen will increase import bills. The dollar index rose 0.5 percent this week and nearly 4% since 8 November.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

In Europe, markets are rising today because the main areas were mixed with growth in the field of metals and mining companies with significant losses in telecommunications and alternative energy industries.

However, the European stock indices closed on a positive note with growth in the pan-European Eurofirst 300 is 0.3%. Oil prices remain steady as investors await the OPEC meeting next week. In the course of this meeting can be taken to limit the scope of proposals. This will lead to a rise in the stock price.

The single currency fell to its lowest level since March 2015 but rebounded 0.2 percent today to $1.05685. Wall street was closed for Thanksgiving. The Swiss Krone is stable but it was significantly affected by the fact that gold remains under pressure these days, retreating 0.6% to $1.17606 per ounce. This is 2.6% less than last week. The British pound is trading weak and has only strengthened against the Japanese yen. But in Britain, we are waiting for the GDP report which can reflect the health of the market at the moment and clarify investment prospects.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

The major European stock indices are trading mixed with negative dynamics in the EU and more positive in Switzerland and the UK. It received a boost due to the lukewarm interest in cyclical shares and assets of the pharmaceutical companies with a growing medium-term prospects for both sectors.

The Euro Stoxx 600 is kept at 0.1% growth, up 1% last week. However, the future performance of officials of the European Central Bank could undermine the prospects of strengthening stimulus on the background of favourable global cyclical impact on regional assets.

The European currency is growing in anticipation of the official ECB President Mario Draghi. Не can give guidance on monetary policy which is expected to remain unchanged in the near future. The Swiss franc and the British pound sterling traded weak by creating an enabling environment for growth stocks.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

The US dollar and the yield of U.S. treasuries show signs of weakness as the markets are still hesitant to react to the prospect of new presidential policy. So the trading week starts gently with a dominant activity in the field of traditional asset classes in Europe, USA and Asia.

The MSCI index added 0.57 percent today while the Nikkei in Japan lost 0.14% on the back of a stronger yen. US stocks received a significant boost because of the bearish sentiment against the U.S. dollar adding from 0.34 to 0.39%. The Australian ASX closed with losses of 0.79%.

The US dollar is the obvious leader of the fall today. It is trading weaker than all the major competing currencies led by the Japanese yen. The yen received a boost to growth because of the tendency of investors to hedge financial risks through this instrument. Earlier Friday, the major indexes of Wall street showed a total weekly increase to 17-year highs. Saudi Arabia said on Friday it would not attend talks about OPEC cutting supplies. Therefore, there is concern in relation to the fact that producers fail to agree on the reduction of supply.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

Stock markets in Europe are showing signs of weakness mostly due to the banking sector. It is weakened because of the world’s oldest Bank Monte dei Paschi in Italy, which raises concerns in relation to the entire banking sector of Europe.

The pan-European Euro Stoxx 600 lost 0.8% to 339.83. The index of regional banks closed with losses of 1.8% showing the biggest losses among industries. Oil prices remain weak as investors await the OPEC meeting. While Saudi Arabia announced it will not be able to attend this meeting. Industrial goods are rising amid Chinese demand both in real and speculative value.

EUR is stable and it is trading above the JPY and AUD. GBP and CHF also showing competitive dynamics relative to other currencies. In general there is deepening uncertainty in relation to global trends in the markets today. This is forcing investors to diversify risk through the acquisition of different asset classes. Political risks have kept the Euro stable despite the early rollback of the dollar. The European single currency traded at $1.0606 after failing to reach an 11-day high of $1.0686.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

The dollar moves to the strongest two-month gain since the beginning of 2015, underpinned by expectations that the fed will raise interest rates in the coming month. However the greenback weakened against its earlier results because of profit-taking from investors.

Australian stocks rose 0.1% and the Canadian lost 0.4%. The Asia Pacific MSCI Index fell by 0.2%. Industrial metals extended rally, provoking the long-awaited inflationary impulse in the world economy. Futures for iron ore in China rose to the highest level since the beginning of 2014. Zinc touched a nine-year highs before closing at five. Stock markets of Wall street, meanwhile, has been significantly weakened with the losses from 0.28 to 0.56% on the basic indexes.

The yield on two-year Treasury bonds reached the highest level since the beginning of 2010. Dollar moves higher against the yen at the level of 112.18 but profit-taking pulled it down to 111.58. This indicates a 7% growth of the dollar against the yen this month. In commodity markets investors are awaiting the meeting of OPEC. But the absence of Saudi Arabia doubt that the producers will be able to negotiate a reduction in the supply.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

More than $16 billion flowed from emerging markets within two weeks after elections in the United States although stock market data in India, Indonesia, Thailand and South Korea point to the possibility of slowing the outflow. Today, Asian markets are generally stable although Chinese stocks are undermining the general trend on the background of how the Chinese Central Bank is trying to stimulate economic growth.

The MSCI regional index outside Japan showed an increase of 0.2% while the Nikkei 225 in Japan rose 0.1%. The Australian ASX, Canadian TSX lost 0.3 and 0.1%. Ten-year US treasury bonds rose to 2.42% last Friday. The curve reflecting the gap between the yield on ten-year and two-year bonds exceeded 20 points in the last three weeks.

In FX markets, the rise of the US dollar capped ahead of crucial economic data from the United States. The greenback added 7% against the yen and 3% against the Euro. This comes amid expectations of the increase in budget spending, accelerating inflation and tightening monetary policy in the coming month. However, NewForex analysts tend to assume that further growth of the dollar will be severely limited. The package of crucial economic data from the US could further strengthen confidence in the currency. However, here already the investors can exercise in front of over record levels.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

European markets rise amid unfolding trends at the regional banks mainly in Italy. And this is due to the significant increase in medical and technology companies in Switzerland. Some of them reached record levels of capitalization these days.

The pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 rose more than 0.3% after the ECB returned the investors ’ confidence that the regulator will be able to support the Italian referendum and to restrict deflation of the currency. Italian banks grew from 3% to 6% on this news. And the world’s oldest Bank Monte dei Paschi rose more than 17% today confident of avoiding the threat of ruin.

The European currency is unstable and may be affected by the intentions of the ECB to increase incentive spending. The Swiss franc and the British pound sterling also hold the Fort against a basket of major currencies. Earlier, the European Central Bank stated that is willing to limit the growth of sovereign debt of Italy at the time of the referendum by purchasing Italian bonds. At the same time, we expect data from the labor market in Germany and a pan-European report on the consumer sentiment and ECB President Draghi. This can guide in the prospects for monetary policy of the regulator.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Forex News from New Forex: Technical analysis of EUR/USD

 

On Thursday this currency pair trades with small lowering, remaining within support levels at 1.0518 and resistance at 1.0633. It is necessary to notice that slow development of this market which has been observed from last Friday to the middle of the current week stopped. Since Asian trading session and till the present moment we can observe consolidation of the price near the level of 1.0600, that is determined by such term as flat or a sideway. On the four-hour chart, exponential sliding averages with the period of 20 and 55 days were crossed down yesterday and today, they are drifting together. The histogram MACD continues to cling to a zero index, remaining below the signal line that gives a weak hint on the potential of a small bear market in the short-term

 

NewForex Analyst

Luigi Campo

 

Forex News from New Forex: Technical analysis of USD/JPY

 

After a small improvement at the end of last and the beginning of the current week this currency pair continues to grow in the long-term prospect.On the day chart, the histogram MACD was a little slowed down, having fallen below the signal line which tells about a small weakening of bull potential of the market, however the Stochastic oscillator gives an accurate signal for purchasing and the %K line is above the %D line. In the short-term prospect, judging by the four-hour chart, it is possible to speak about a small correction in the market which preserves the current trend. The histogram MACD is in a positive zone and remains above the signal line. Stochastics, in its turn, gives an accurate sell signal, taking into account a correctional movement of the market in the short term (the %K line lower than the %D line). Meanwhile, quotations on this currency pair remain within the closest levels of support — 113.24 and resistance — 115.73 with moderately bull indicator of an index trend.

 

NewForex Analyst

Luigi Campo

 

Forex News from New Forex: Technical analysis of NZD/USD

 

This market has been growing for two weeks in a row, with a small correction during the yesterday’s trading session.Today, the pair resumed its growth meanwhile it is being traded within the closest levels of support at 0.7025 and resistance at 0.7127 which, as we hope, will be overcomed.On the four-hour chart the oscillator Stochastic left an oversold zone and goes up.The histogram MACD was slightly slowed down, continuing «to win back» yesterday’s correction, however it remains in a positive zone which in total with an accurate signal on purchasing the Stochastics allows to assume preserving of the current trend in the short term. It is also necessary to consider that the price remains above the Ichimoku line which tells about the profit of this market’s bull potential.

 

NewForex Analyst

Luigi Campo

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to cut down an offer amounts in the markets once again, even in spite of the fact that Saudi Arabia didn’t participate in negotiations this time. On the other way around, the initiative of Russia to join the decision of OPEC, that pushed oil to 8-% growth came as a surprise for everybody. Meanwhile, official PMI of China grew to 51.7 in November with 51.2 in October, remaining above 50 point mark which separates growth from reducing a monthly basis.

The global energy sector grew up on 0.21%, raw added 0.36% just as the production sector added 0.29%. Cyclic shares are growing up on 0.25%. 30-years treasury bonds of the United States have expanded its profitability up to 14-month in 3.09%, having undermined an interest towards the American shares which thereby are rising in price: only Dow Jones grew up by 0.1% because of the strengthened energy sector just as Nasdaq Composite and S&P lost 1.06% and 0.28%. The Japanese shares added 1.12% because of the weak yen. The Chinese production shows the best results in its progress per month for the last 2 years.

American dollar reached its 9-months maximum peak against yen, which was at the level of 114.830 before returning to 114.060. The Japanese yen is traded poorly, promoting growth of shares of national exporters while the Australian and Canadian dollars stabilized against the majority of principal currencies. Speaking about a dollar, it’s just a matter of time when it will reach the level of 115 yens. Despite of the fact that surplus which was more than 8-% for the last month, the greenback still continues to grow, without any obvious signs for a tendency turn.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

At the same time, the stock indexes in Europe have groped the potential for the further growth after they closed a surplus per month in more than 0.8%, according to the all-European Eurofirst 300.The yesterday’s meeting of OPEC, as a result of which the next decision on reducing the volume of offers in the markets was made, became one of the main reasons.

Stoxx Europe 600 grew up by 0.7% since the presidential elections in the USA, having broken an early negative tendency and only on several 100-th of percent discording in the correlation with other Pan-European Eurofirst 300 index. Yesterday, Stoxx 600 added 0.3%. The oil and gas index of Europe grew up to it’s three-months maximum peak in 3.4%.

The potential of European currencies growing remains muffled because of the growing dollar and long-term treasury bonds of the USA, which keep them under the spotlight of investors. However, the common currency is stable but for Swiss franc and the British pound of sterling trade below the majority of the principal competing currencies for today. Though for euro there are additional concerns against the background of the future Italian referendum. In case of referendum’s failure, the European Central Bank promises to intensify purchases of the Italian bonds, that will bring common currency into the descending trend.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

For today, Asian shares have developed and they are falling against the background of global losses in the stock markets while profitability of the American bonds has decreased. South Korean shares dropped by 0.7%, having expanded weekly losses up to 0.25% after opposition parties declared that they will continue offensive movements on Friday. Their policy is to exclude Park Geun-hye from the president’s position after the scandal on trade influence, for the purpose of carrying out voting on her impeachment on December 9.

Regional MSCI decreased by 0.6%. Earlier, Nikkei reached its 11-month peak, but for today it is departed for 0.6%. The Chinese CSI 300 decreased by 0.5%, and 0.3% in a week. Today, Hang Seng in Hong Kong loses 0.9% and 0.2 within a week. Profitability of 10-year American bonds was removed to 2.439% after it was about 2.492% on Thursday — the highest rate since June, 2015.Wall Street head out with multidirectional trade: Dow Jones grew up by 0.36%, but Nasdaq and S&P 500 relevantly weaken at 1:36 and 0.36%.

Today, the American dollar subsided for 0.3% against yen, just like yesterday. In common it has reached its 10-month maxima. The Australian and Canadian dollars are also in their defensive position. Investors are examine an employment in nonagricultural sector — the interim report for November will be published today, but a bit later, trying to discover some additional arguments for benefit of improvement of the economy after construction sector’s data has showed increase in construction expenses up to 7-month maxima in October.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

Subsequent to the results of referendum the Italian stock market remains the weakest in Europe this year, having lost more than 20% because of the problems in the national banking sector and concerns about political instability. Surveys reveal that public opinion is against the offered reforms, however some media sources emphasize that the gap was considerably reduced (from 5-7% up to 3-5%) over recent days. Also it should be taken into account that many respondents refrained from participation in surveys.

The bank index of Italy which has lost more than a half of the cost this year grew up by 2.6% this week, gaining support of stabilization from the European Central Bank. The all-European Stoxx Euro 600 dropped by 0.3% while the blue chip index of Milan grew up by 1% and had shown its highest intraday level since November 10.

The single currency gained ground this week, remaining on its way to a 1-% surplus. But it can weaken considerably because of the expenses on support of the Italian bonds in case of a negative outcome of the referendum in Italy. The Swiss franc strengthens its position, acting as attractive means for hedging of financial risks these days, and the British pound sterling grows against the background of the latest problems of the European Union convincing investors of viability of a brexit initiative.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

[Anna Mon]

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: Europe

 

The European currency fell to the minimums of May 2014 after investors left to hedge through risk asset classes, leaving the European shares without necessary attention, against the background of the condensed problems in the financial sector of Italy and other provincial markets of Europe.

The real sector weakens from low investment activity. Profitability of the Italian bonds grows while treasury bonds in the USA and Germany are rising in price, attracting hedgers with the relative safety.The European Central Bank has already managed to take reprisals, previously having reported about intention to expand the stimulating program in case of a referendum failure.This fact helped to weaken consequences of the Italian events. It is worth expecting that this week we will see a take-off of some key sections of economy, but most likely the financial sector will remain under pressure.

The European currency lost 1.4% against competitors. It is not so disastrously as it was with pound sterling after the Brexit events, but if to take into account recent crisis in Greece and strengthening of the stimulating policy of the European Central Bank, then it is possible to consider borders of the further fall up to $0.8000. The Swiss franc also uses interest on hedgers, taking highly competitive dynamics against other currencies. We can observe the same thing with the British pound which receives impulses for growing from each news confirming benefits from an early Brexit-referendum.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov

 

Fundamental analysis from New Forex: The Asia-Pacific region

 

For the day, shares show negative dynamics worldwide as the constitutional referendum lost 60% of voters in Italy, after they have voted against an initiative of reforms. The prime minister Rentsi promised to retire. Investors are hedged through risk assets, mainly through US dollar.

In the region, disregarding Japan, the MSCI index showed easing at 0.4%. According to the Nikkei index the Japanese shares lost 0.9%. The stock indexes of Wall Street reflect the mixed dynamics: S&P 500 loses 0.1%, and Nasdaq and Dow grow at 0.09 and 0.04%. Even energization of the cross biddings between Shenzhen and Hong Kong doesn’t save the situation in the stock markets. However this change doesn’t remain unnoticed and will bear fruit in the long term.

The greenback got the upper hand because of the hedgers and gained ground bull prospects of the Central Banks, which is ready to push an interest rates up this month. Yen is in protective position. The Canadian and the Australian dollar stay clear as these regions were less vulnerable for referendum consequences. Today we wait for the report on activity in a service sector of the USA which can clear prospects of the American economy more distinctly and in particular, policy of U.S. Fed.

 

NewForex Analyst

Alex Vergunov