Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 18. 2017

 

The JPY increased significantly in value against the USD after the majority of investors fled the USD after Donald Trump expressed his concerns that the US dollar might be becoming too strong for the US economy to handle. The US 10-year Treasury Yields plummeted to 2.307% during the early hours of yesterday’s trading session, possibly its lowest intraday levels since November 2016. This has then lended support for the bears of the USD/JPY pair after the currency pair traded at the lower regions of 112.67 points before making a slight recovery.

 

However, there came a slew of negative US data, such as the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, which dropped to 6.5% from its previous reading of 9.0%. This reading is indicative of slower business growth in the region for this month. Since the USD/JPY was able to extend over 114.00 points, the currency pair is more than ready to extend sideways. The pair’s 4-hour chart shows that its momentum indicator retains its bearish stance and is still within the negative side of the chart, while RSI indicators for the currency pair are pointing to the downside. The 100 SMA for the USD/JPY pair has also lowered significantly.

 

Support levels for the USD/JPY are expected to manifest at the 112.65 points, while resistance levels could possibly appear once the pair hits 113.35 points.

[Andrea ForexMart]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: January 19, 2017

 

The Australian Dollar presented some optimism compared with its U.S peer that receives support from the dynamic pricing of oil. The awaited data from the labour market is deemed to support the Aussie at the same time.

 

The tone of the market remains to be positive. The AUD/USD is confined on its 2-week highs near the 0.7550 level. The price hovered around a very tight range and tends to go into a lower position. The 4-hour chart showed the spot stick on top of the moving averages. The 100 and 50-EMAs preserved its bullish tone while 200-EMA is flat. Resistance hit 0.7550 mark, support is found at 0.7500 range.

 

MACD lied in the same level which confirmed buyer’s strength once again. The RSI is currently on the consolidation period and entered the overvalued zone.

 

Forecasts mentioned for a further short-term downward correction. In case the closing trades are set under 0.7750, the price will impose a sell signal. The possible target of the bears is 0.7500.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 19, 2017

 

Hard Brexit issues continued to affect the cable pair. The British currency weakened in spite of the upbeat in the labor market data as the unemployment stat maintained its rate and Claimant Count Change rose.

 

The sterling is in the red versus its American rival on Wednesday. The GBP/USD climb the edge of the overbought area and pointed downwards amid Asian hours. Sellers take out the 1.2400 level during the morning trades and tested the mark 1.2300 in the EU session. However, the mark stalled the progress of sellers. Having touched the level, the price reduced and stayed on top of the region prior to the onset of NY trading.

 

According to the 4-hour chart, spot bounced off to 200-EMA. The entire moving averages moved downwards. Resistance highlighted 1.2400 region, support entered 1.2300 area.

The MACD slowed down which favored seller’s strength. RSI kept intact in the overbought zone.

 

Moreover, the 4-hour chart showed a prevailing bearish tone.The primary target 1.2200 showed some signs as it will be going short followed by  the consolidation phase, the pair is expected to move ahead through 1.2100 handle.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 19, 2017

 

The American dollar was able to rub out its losses versus the euro prior to the speech of Yellen yesterday. The greens further acquired some support from the consumer price index of U.S which met the expectations of investors. Moreover, the decision of the ECB about its interest rate will be announced later this day.

 

The market structure remained  to be bullish on Wednesday. The single European currency executed an upside impulse and return from its weekly high towards 1.0716.

The ongoing rebound is deemed to be corrective during the profit-taking behind the current rally. The EUR/USD retreated under the 1.0700 level amid morning trades on Wednesday and it hovered throughout the level as the EU session took place.

 

The 4-hour chart shows the price resumed its advancement on top of the moving averages. The 100 and 50-EMAs continued to be bullish while 200-EMA stayed on the neutral position shown in the same time chart. Resistance sits at 1.0700, support lies at 1.0650 region.

The MACD histogram falls which indicate weak position of the buyers. The RSI oscillator kept around the overvalued territory.

 

The pair is expected to moved near the immediate support 1.0650. In case the level breaks, the support will return to 1.0600. However, the EUR will receive short-term support as much as 1.0500 remained intact.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 19, 2017

 

The USD/CAD pair was previously situated in a very critical support region and has reverted in the region just below 1.3000 points. The Bank of Canada has already released its statement regarding the central bank’s rates, and the bank also held a press conference later in the day. The pair’s strong bounce was seen as the US dollar and the Canadian dollar went in highly opposite directions during the previous trading session.

 

The USD had already regained its lost strength and has exhibited positive activity across the board after Yellen announced that the Fed could possibly go for more rate hikes in the future if the economic data from the US continues to be positive. On the other hand, the Bank of Canada announced that it will be making no changes on its current interest rates. However, the succeeding press conference from BoC’s Poloz has made it clear to investors that the Canadian economy has not shown any progress and has instead stayed in the same place. Moreover, Poloze expressed his sentiments regarding a possible trade war under the Trump administration, and this has adversely affected the CAD and has caused the USD/CAD pair to revert back from the 1.3000 trading range and was able to shot up through 1.3100 and even through 1.3200 where it currently sits above as of present time.

 

Market players are expecting that the USD/CAD pair might be in for a strong uptrend and could possibly reach 1.4000 points. For today’s trading session, Canada will be releasing its Manufacturing Sales data, while US will be releasing its oil inventory data as well as the Unemployment claims data. These are expected to induce volatility in the pair. However, it is highly likely that the USD/CAD pair will be in for an uptrend in the long run.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 23, 2017

 

The EUR/USD increased for the past few days following the sluggish stance of the greenbacks. The single European dollar benefited from the position of the greens as it climbs to 1.0700 and further extended its gains. The USD weakened with no definite reason as others deemed for the general correction while some claimed it’s all because of the skepticism for Trump’s administration. However, the American currency is clearly at a disadvantage point against the euro.

 

The EUR is relatively buoyant for the previous week, much more when its U.S peer manifested some strength. The euro continued to bounce back from a limited correction and eventually broke the 1.0700 level, en route 1.0840 region.

 

There are some issues that the weakness are caused by the speech of Trump coupled with the curtailment for the rest of Obamacare. Moreover, there exist a general risk about the US President’s team and their plans and these uncertainties weighed on the USD.

 

As the last week of January enters, the economic news is lessened while the upcoming is a beginning for the USD towards an unidentified state which brings higher volatility.

 

The US and Euroregion do not have major reports to be released for today, what we expect is the continuous fall of the greens.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 24, 2017

 

Today’s trading session is expected to be very critical for the GBP/USD pair since UK is now awaiting for the release of the country’s SC ruling with regards to its eurozone membership, as well as the Brexit process, which is set to be released during today’s session. The GBP/USD pair has increased in value over the past 24 hours as part of market anticipation, with the currency pair closing yesterday’s session at over 1.2500 points after months of being unable to go over 1.2500 due to repeated pummeling from bears of the said currency. However, since yesterday was a generally good day for the sterling pound, the market is expecting that this currency pair would be able to reach 1.2700 or even 1.2800 in the short-term outlook for the GBP/USD pair.

 

The UK Supreme Court will be releasing its decision on whether the Article 50 will have to undergo scrutiny from the Parliament or otherwise, since the Article 50 is an essential factor on the carrying out of the Brexit process. The market is generally anticipating that the SC will be approving the Article 50 invocation, and if this does happen, then this will ensure that the whole of the Brexit process will be well-thought of, and this will ensure that equal distribution of ideas instead of the power becoming limited to select people in the government. This is expected to drive up the value of the GBP, but then there are also some risks that the Parliament approval might cause delays in the Brexit process since all views and ideas must be taken into consideration as part of the process.

 

There are no major news releases from the UK except for the SC ruling for the Brexit process, as well as from the US.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 24, 2017

 

The USD/CAD pair continues to trade within a tight range and consolidated for the most part of yesterday’s trading sessions. The CAD was recently subject to an increased pressure after the Bank of Canada expressed it plans to implement an interest rate cut in the next few months as a result of the Canadian economy becoming increasingly stagnant after not showing much development in the recent economic readings. This added pressure in the CAD has however helped in offsetting the dollar weakness during the past few days.

 

The Canadian dollar is probably the only currency which the USD has gained in relation during the past few sessions and has continued to maintain its gains over this currency, while other major currencies have increased in value and has left the dollar behind. The US dollar has been in hot water recently, especially since the market is generally uncertain on Trump’s administration policies and how the newly-minted president plans to run the US economy. The market is constantly kept on its toes as Trump continues to act brash in spite of the initial euphoria during the US elections, where the market had hoped that Trump’s election might be generally be good news for businesses around the world. However, the current administration might have to undergo a lot of work before finally regaining the market’s confidence.

 

There are no major news releases from both the Canadian and the US economy, and as such, the USD/CAD pair is expected to experience more consolidation and ranging during today’s session. Since the weakness of both currencies are apparently cancelling each other out, the currency pair is unable to make any significant progress and the bulls might have a hard time pushing the currency pair towards 1.3400 points and higher.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 30, 2017

 

The USD/CAD pair closed down the week on a much lower note as compared to the previous trading week after the Canadian dollar exhibited strength across the board and the USD weakened in value yet again even though it was able to recover during the latter part of the week. This particular recovery of the US dollar looks like it will be here for the long run, and this is why dollar bulls are putting added confidence to the performance of the US dollar in the next trading sessions. In addition, the Trump administration has already went about making changes and fulfilling its campaign promises, such as the shifts in Obamacare and the Mexican border wall, and the pulling out of US from trading agreements with Canada and other neighboring countries. This has created unrest in the market, and could open the doors for a possible trade war which is very bad news even for the US economy.

 

This has then prompted the USD/CAD pair to drop significantly in value from 1.3450 to 1.3000 points, but was saved by the sudden surge in the USD’s value as the previous week came to a close. The Canadian dollar also received support from the resiliency of oil prices, which managed to stay put in spite of the recent increase in the value of the US dollar. Market players are expecting this uptick in the USD/CAD to continue and could possibly extend up to 1.4000if it manages to stay just above 1.3000 points.

The Canadian GDP will be released this week, and governor Poloz from the Bank of Canada will also be releasing a statement this week. On the other hand, US will be releasing a string of important economic data including the NFP, wage earnings, as well as the statement from the FOMC. These are all expected to induce volatility in the market, and traders should either exercise caution or wait for things to settle before trading with this currency pair.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: January 31, 2017

 

The Japanese yen inched higher as opposed to the US dollar as a result of a flight-to-safety trend across the market, which was triggered by investor reactions to a sudden drop in global equity markets. Meanwhile, stocks were sold off as a result of Donald Trump’s immigration ban. The USD/JPY pair closed off the previous trading session at 113.778 after decreasing by -1.10% or 1.269 points.

 

A lot of investors have sought the protection of the Japanese yen after protectionism concerns arose due to the immigration ban since these could possibly have a negative effect on both exports and imports and could also create substantial risks for the economy. Towards the latter part of yesterday’s session, the Japanese Household Spending data came in with a reading of 0.3%, exceeding market expectations of 0.8% and the previous reading of -1.5%. However, the unemployment rates for the country remain stagnant at 3.1%. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan chose to maintain its current benchmark interest rates at -0.10%, a move that was generally anticipated by the majority of market players. The central bank also increased its GDP forecast to 1.4% as opposed to its past prediction of 1.0% back in October. In addition, the BoJ also stated that it is expecting an inflation surge of around 2% come the fiscal year 2018.

 

Interest rate differentials could have a positive effect on the USD/JPY pair since the central bank chose to maintain its interest rates while the Fed hinted at high-frequency rate hikes for 2017. In the short term, the USD/JPY could be driven by volatility coming from the equity markets. However, the dollar-yen relationship could possibly be influenced by the positive interest rate differentials.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 31, 2017

 

The GBP/USD pair’s activity has been very disappointing during the past 24 hours, which could be largely due to the fact that the market is nearing the end of the month. Towards the end of every month, the UK government is required to pay its membership fees to the European Union, and this usually amounts to 1 billion euros, and this usually induces volatility in the movement of the sterling pound. These monthly dues from the UK are usually masked by the banks which process these transactions, but these show more often than not, and this contributes to the drop in the value of the GBP.

 

Market analysts have constantly saying that the direction of the sterling pound would most likely be influenced by the Brexit process, and this has been already seen with the increased pressure on the GBP/USD pair. This particular pressure on the pound is expected to continue until such time that the Brexit process is finally completed, and this is also the reason why the pound climbed up to trading highs near 1.2700 but eventually corrected and is now expected to hit 1.2300 points in the short term. The GBP will remain to be one of the weaker currencies, and although there might be a few intermittent reversions at the expense of the dollar weakness, these are not expected to follow through in the long term.

 

There are no major news releases from the UK set to be released today but the US will be releasing its consumer confidence data. Month end flows are expected to come in today as this is the last day of the month, and traders are advised to take the necessary precautions to protect themselves from the onslaught of additional volatility today.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 3, 2017

 

The market has been generally expecting the USD/CAD pair to undergo a period of ranging and consolidation as the US prepares to release its NFP report, and this was what happened with this particular currency pair during the past trading sessions. The USD/CAD is currently trading at over 1.3000 and is headed in a generally disappointing trading streak, but then again this region has strong support barriers, and this region might be a good place for traders to go long with a stop loss.

 

Oil prices have already settled down last month and has exhibited little activity on both directions. As a result, the Canadian dollar was able to obtain some support and the economic data scheduled to be released from Canada are also expected to be generally positive, and there are no major changes expected to occur within the Canadian economy. The drop in the value of the USD/CAD was mainly due to the weakness of the dollar, and once Trump makes major changes in the NAFTA agreement, then the trade relationship between US and Canada could be up for some major adjustments. This has no positive effect on both economies whatsoever, and this uncertainty has been fueling the drop in the value of the currency pair.

 

There are no major news expected to be released from the Canadian economy today but the market is expecting the release of the NFP report as well as the average earnings data and the non-manufacturing PMI data from the US. If these data comes out as positive, then this could further affirm an interest rate hike from the Fed in the near future, but a weak reading could cause the USD to further decrease in value.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 3, 2017

 

The GBP/USD pair is currently trading at 1.2500 points after briefly reaching 1.2700 points after traders took sell opportunities every time the GBP/USD exhibited reversions. The Bank of England released its statement yesterday and maintained its current rates as expected, while the monetary policy meetings and inflation reports did not deliver anything significant to the economy and did not induce any market activity. However, these neutral readings had adversely affected the currency pair since the majority of market players were expecting hawkish comments from the BoE as well as from the inflation reports, but since both of these data came out as neutral, the market was generally disappointed and this put a significant amount of downward pressure on the value of the sterling pound. However, it was a good thing that the dollar was weak, since if the dollar were stronger then the pound might sink even lower.

 

The pound is expected to continue its losing streak, and any reversions are expected to be met with major sell-offs, especially with the oncoming volatility which will be caused by the implementation of the Brexit process. For today’s session, UK will be releasing its services PMI data and US will be releasing its NFP reports and wage earnings data. These string of economic readings set to be released today are expected to increase the pair’s volatility. The market is expecting a positive US labor report, and if this happens, then the GBP/USD pair might be able to break through 1.2500 and move further towards 1.2400 points.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 3, 2017

 

The EUR/USD pair has been subject to a lot of messy trading activity during the past trading sessions as the pair had no definite direction and generally exhibited an uncertain trading stance. The currency pair has been vainly trying to break through the 1.0800 trading range and briefly made it through this barrier and even reached up to 1.0828 points but eventually reverted back to its original stance after a massive sell-off met the pair, causing it to fall back to 1.0800 and even went as low as just over 1.0760 points.

 

Today is the scheduled release date of the NFP report from the US, and the market volatility is expected to surge as this particular report is one of the major economic reports anticipated by the markets every month. The NFP report now is even more crucial than ever, because the Fed has previously stated that the central bank will be relying on positive economic data as basis for whether they will be hiking interest rates in the future or otherwise. In addition, the release of the NFP report is equally important to restore investor and trader confidence in the USD, especially since the past few days has seen the dollar subject to more weakness as Trump drew negative comments from his recently implemented foreign policies such as the immigration ban. This is one of the reasons why the general direction of the EUR/USD remains uncertain since the market wants first to confirm the results of the NFP report before making any concrete moves.

 

For today’s session, US will be releasing its NFP report as well as the non-manufacturing PMI data and average wage earnings data. Investors are hoping that these economic data comes out as positive in order to induce some strength in the ever-weakening stance of the US dollar.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 6, 2017

 

The EUR/USD pair will undergo pressure this week. Moreover, the NFP report was positive as the average earnings positioned at 0.1% lower than the expected 0.3%. When at first, it is expected for the bulls to take over the market but the trend doesn't have enough momentum bringing the price towards the 1.0800 as a resistance level which was the prior region. The greenback is being swayed because of the uncertainty from Trump and his team to change the policies and cannot be determined the next move of Euro.

 

The current psychological level at 1.0800 is a significant region and a break in this region could further bring the price towards the 1.12 mark which has been the region for some time last week. The market is trying to break the EUR/USD in the midst of the weakened dollar. At the same time, the market aims to stabilize the current rates but there were not enough support from the administration and economic policy changes and the reports of the economic data.

 

Although, a majority of the support for the currency supported from the economic data or the administration and at the same time influence the next Fed rate hike. However, it seems that the wage earnings reports are on the lows which could delay the rate hike process. This would put more pressure to the dollar today and this whole week and it is still uncertain until when the dollar rates would hold.

 

As for today, there will be no major economic news from the Euro or from U.S. regions. It is expected for the price to EUR/USD to remain in consolidation with a bullish bias  with chances of a breakout near the 1.0800 level.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: February 6, 2017

 

The USD/JPY pair attempted to rally several times during the past week due to the positive feel of the US equity markets as well as its effect on the US carry trade but there was a shortage of buyers which could have fueled an upside follow-through. The USD/JPY pair finished the previous trading session at 112.551 points after dropping by -2.17% or 2.496 points. This movement in the currency pair was largely due to Trump’s comments in the past week as well as statements coming from both the Fed and the BoJ.

 

The FOMC maintained its current rates last week at 0.50%-0.75% and was generally expected by the majority of market players, but the bearish tone of the USD/JPY pair was also largely influenced by the Fed’s refusal to give out hints with regards to its next interest rate hike.

 

There are no major news releases coming from either Japan or US for this week, and this means that the market will be affected by events that will have a bearing on the current stance of the US dollar. Currently, Trump is aiming for a weaker USD value in order for him to upgrade his statements with regards to currency devaluations and other unfair trade policies. The charts are indicating that the USD/JPY pair could possibly rise up to 109.919 points if sellers of the pair would be able to put enough pressure on the market to march through 112.00 points.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 20, 2017

 

The EUR/USD pair was subject to some nice amounts of volatility during the past week after the currency pair was mainly influenced by the dollar strength during the first half of the week, but immediately went into reversal as the latter part of the week started. The currency pair is now expected to consolidate with a bullish undertone for this week, with projected support levels at 1.0500 points and resistance levels expected to be at 1.0800 points.

 

Last week, the EUR/USD finally looked like it turned for the better as the currency pair made a steady march towards 1.0500 after breaking through 1.0600 after a foreshadowing of a long-awaited dollar uptrend. This was also further supported by Yellen’s confirmation that the Fed will be implementing another rate hike this coming March. However, the effect of this positive news was offset by the release of the CPI data which showed weak wages data in spite of the overall data being highly positive. This turned out to be unappealing for the dollar bulls and caused the USD’s strength to die down, causing the pair to end at just over 1.0600 points.

 

For this week, there will be a US market holiday and there are no expected data to come out from both the EU and the US for the week. The EUR/USD pair will most likely continue its current trend of ranging and consolidating for this week.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 28, 2017

 

The market saw a very dismal durable goods data reading while Trump continues to further delay his long-awaited tax cut policies, thereby contributing to the further dwindling of the value of the US dollar. As a reaction to this particular phenomenon, the EUR/USD pair was able to reach 1.0630 points in a matter of a few hours and seems poised to move further.

 

However, the US dollar suddenly reverted its losses for no apparent reason at all and this caused the EUR/USD to drop further to 1.0600 before settling at just over 1.0580 points. Some market analysts are crediting this sudden surge in the dollar’s value to Trump’s previous statements regarding the infrastructure increases, a favorite campaign topic of Trump during his candidacy. Previously, there have been rumors swirling around that this infrastructure policies would not come into effect until 2018, but since Trump has already re-discussed this particular proposal, the market has since then been speculating that the increase might be implemented within the year which could help in keeping the buoyancy of the market. The USD has been able to revert its losses as a result but the real determinant here would be the rate statement next month as well as the FOMC rates.

 

Now that the market is slowly shifting its focus from Trump’s policies towards the move of the Federal Reserve, it is highly likely that the market’s movements will be relying on the Fed’s decision on when they will be implementing the next rate hike.

 

There are no major releases coming from the eurozone today but the US will be releasing its consumer spending data as well as its Preliminary GDP data today which could bring in added volatility to the USD and affect the EUR/USD pair. The currency pair is expected to continue consolidating with bullish undertones for today.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 28, 2017

 

The USD/CAD had a strong bullish trade during the previous session after the bulls were able to regain its dominance over this particular currency pair. The bulls had previously attempted last week to gain control over the pair after the release of a dismal retail sales data from the Canadian economy but was eventually unable to do so after the release of a very strong CPI data. The bulls had also attempted to break through yesterday but has failed from last week’s range highs.

 

The currency pair’s strong resistance and support barriers of 1.3060 and 1.3000 respectively has led the market to believe that the USD/CAD pair is in for some major uptrend and is evident of the importance of the support barrier with regards to the struggle between the pair’s bulls and bears. Since the bears have constantly failed to break through this pair, the pair’s bears are currently in full dominance of the USD/CAD. The USD/CAD was previously consolidating within the 1.3100 barrier but a surge in the value of the USD helped in boosting the currency pair following’s Trump’s statement that he will be adding up the country’s infrastructure spending. The pair eventually increased in value after oil prices somewhat dropped in value.

 

This drop in oil prices could cause trouble for the USD/CAD pair in the short and medium term since Canada is very reliant on oil prices. The pair’s bears could become seriously affected once the dollar strength and weak oil prices come together since this could trigger the pair to move significantly upwards.

 

There are no major news coming from the Canadian economy today but the pair could get some volatility from the US consumer confidence data and Preliminary GDP which will be released today. The USD/CAD could possibly consolidate within 1.3100-1.3200 points with a bullish undertone.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 28, 2017

 

The GBP/USD took a heavy hitting during the previous session as the pair’s bulls were unable to create a continuously good run for the pair since every time a bounce in the pair manifests, the pair immediately drops as it is met with major selloffs. There are still overshadowing concerns with the currency pair since the Brexit process is still ongoing, and this ensures that the GBP/USD pair will be unable to go higher for quite some time.

 

The GBP/USD pair was hit even more harder yesterday after rumors that Scotland is currently planning to implement another referendum in their favor in order to discern whether it would still be beneficial for them to continue becoming part of the UK. If this happens, then this would be disastrous for the UK economy since other parts of the UK might also be encouraged to do the same. This is probably the worst that could happen to the UK, especially since Scotland had initially voted to remain part of the European Union but was outvoted by the majority of UK members. But then further confirmation of this particular rumor never happened, and this caused the GBP/USD pair to bounce back from 1.2400 and is currently trading at just under 1.2450 points.

 

There are no major news releases expected from the UK today but the US will be releasing its Preliminary GDP data and consumer confidence data. The currency pair would most likely remain under pressure for today, with the 1.2500 barrier presenting a possibly limit to any kind of uptrend in the pair.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 3, 2017

 

The GBP/USD pair has been nursing its wounds during the past trading session as the currency pair is still at a loss on what it needs to do in order to propel its value higher up the chart. The sterling pound has been experience a lot of pressure this week, with the shadows of the ongoing Brexit process hanging over the currency, especially since it is still uncertain whether the impending talks between EU and UK leaders would go smoothly or otherwise. The invocation of Article 50 is drawing nearer and once the line is drawn, there will be no returning for both the European Union and the UK.

 

In addition to the pressure brought about by the Brexit, there have been also additional concerns that Scotland is planning to relieve itself from the UK, and though this has been nothing more than a rumor, it does not look like it’s going to die down any soon, and the USD is also undergoing a consistent rallying streak, another cause of trouble for the GBP/USD pair. The main reason behind the dollar strength is that the market is slowly getting used to Trump’s various eccentricities, and the Federal Reserve has also become increasingly hawkish, thereby cementing speculations that an interest rate hike is in the works.

 

The GBP/USD pair is expected to remain under pressure during today’s session. The UK is scheduled to release its services PMI data today but the market’s main focus would be Yellen’s speech at the New York session. The market will be monitoring whether Yellen will be giving out indications of a March rate hike, and if this is the case, then the dollar would possibly continue rallying and send the GBP/USD pair towards 1.2200 points.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 8, 2017

 

The EUR/USD pair continued with its ranging and consolidation movement for the second consecutive day, with this current trend expected to continue for the subsequent trading session as well. There are no major economic news releases happening within the international market which might influence the movement of the EUR/USD pair, and this is why the market has been incessantly seeing this ranging and consolidation.

 

However, this particular movement coming from the currency pair is also part of the pair’s preparation for the onslaught of important economic data which are expected to be released in the middle of this week, especially since these economic data would most likely induce a lot of unprecedented volatility in the EUR/USD pair. So until these data gets released in the market, it is highly likely that the currency pair would continue consolidating. The USD experienced some minor corrections throughout the course of yesterday’s trading session, and this has become evident in the state of the EUR/USD pair after the currency pair dropped slightly in value and is now trading at just over 1.0550 points. The pair is expected to maintain its hold on this particular barrier as more buys are expected to come in at this region. This could also cause the currency pair to move towards 1.0600 points and will continue consolidating for the rest of the trading session.

 

There are no major news releases expected from the European Union for today but the US will be releasing its ADP employment data later today. This employment data is usually touted as a precursor to the NFP report and although its importance is now being overlooked, it still serves as a necessary gauge on how the the NFP report would eventually pan out. Any fluctuations in this particular data are most likely to show in the NFP report as well.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 8, 2017

 

The GBP/USD pair continues to trade very weakly during the previous trading session. This could be initially attributed to the strengthening of the USD which was reflected across the board, but what has really affected the pound here is the fundamentals underlying the UK economy, as well as various uncertainties which is constantly putting pressure on the value of the GBP/USD pair.

 

Once the Article 50 gets invoked, the Brexit process is pretty much locked in, and this means that there would be several negotiations between EU and UK leaders immediately after the invocation. UK leaders are expected to be stricter with regards to EU trade access since the majority of them would like the UK to realize the several benefits that it would lose once the country finally becomes a separate nation from the European Union. This uncertainty as well as the tediousness of the Brexit process is likely to take its toll on the GBP/USD pair and this is starting to become more evident as the currency pair continues its weak trading stance, with the currency pair just hovering over 1.2200 points.

 

The UK will be releasing its yearly budget release today, and the country is expected to paint a pretty picture of their economy in order to boost public sentiment. This might give temporary resolve for the sterling pound but would eventually fizzle out as the fundamentals continue to put downward pressure on the state of the GBP/USD pair.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 8, 2017

 

The USD/CAD pair continues trading within a limited trading range near its range highs, which is the pair’s current trend ever since the start of the week. The stability of oil prices has helped the Canadian dollar maintain its current stance, but since the USD has been consistently regaining its strength, the bears are having difficulty in exceeding the bulls’ progress and this is why the currency pair is firmly in control, with the bulls dominating the USD/CAD pair.

 

The Canadian trade balance data was released yesterday which came in at a value of 0.8 billion CAD which is very good news for the economy. The trade balance data from the US was als released yesterday and this reading somewhat fell short of initial market expectations/ However, neither of these data had a significant impact on the value of the USD/CAD even though the US dollar is now bracing itself for the onslaught of economic data releases later this week. Both the US and Canada will be releasing its employment data this coming Friday and market players are now preparing for the expected increase in volatility once the data gets released into the market.

 

For today’s trading session, there no major news releases from the Canadian economy although the US will be releasing its ADP employment data and unless this shows a drastic shift in its economic readings, the USD/CAD pair would most likely continue its ranging and consolidation.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 14, 2017

 

The USD/CAD pair spent most of yesterday’s trading session on a mostly ranging and consolidating manner, with the currency pair consolidating within the 1.3400-1.3500 region due to the lack of significant economic events from both the US and the Canadian economy. The market is now on a monitoring stance particularly on the USD and this has been reflected in the lack of any kind of activity in the USD/CAD pair.

 

The market is currently waiting for the onslaught of the release of several economic data from the US tomorrow, with the most important release being the FOMC announcement where the central bank is expected to implement its first interest rate hike for the year. Aside from the FOMC announcement, the CPI data as well as the retail sales data will also be released tomorrow. The high expectations for an interest rate hike tomorrow has helped keep the USD/CAD pair to remain within its range highs. However, the market is not yet sure as to how much hawkishness will be needed for the USD bulls, and this has become somewhat problematic for the USD/CAD pair as the pair has difficulty calculating its move immediately after the FOMC data release.

 

If the statement from the central bank comes out as satisfyingly hawkish, then the USD could boost its strength and could help the USD/CAD bulls to challenge the sells located at the pair’s 1.3500 barrier. If the data comes out otherwise, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly retreat to its previous trading range. For today’s session, the US economy is expected to release its PPI data which is not expected to induce added volatility into the pair.