Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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EUR/USD: USD likely to rise higher; EUR weak due to risk-off sentiment

The US dollar has kicked off the new week with a rapid increase. The euro, on the contrary, was unable to rebound. The greenback is gaining momentum despite a short-term drop last week.

On Monday morning, it advanced significantly against the euro. Its growth was facilitated by positive US macro stats published at the end of last week and the latest economic reports from China. By the end of October, the Chinese authorities announced an unexpected contraction in imports and exports. After the release of disappointing data from China, fears about a looming recession increased in markets, fueling demand for safe-haven assets, including the US dollar.

As the risk-on sentiment decreased, the US dollar won luster win investors again. The US dollar, the most popular safe-haven asset, rose the most. Its further growth may be stimulated by the US inflation report for October, which is due on Thursday, October 10. According to preliminary estimates, inflation is expected to slow down to 8%, logging the fourth decline in the indicator.

Analysts are confident that the Fed mainly takes into account inflation figures when making monetary policy decisions. Since early 2022, the Fed has raised the key rate six times to curb galloping inflation. It has started to slow down thanks to monetary tightening. However, after moving away from an all-time high of 9.1%, inflation still remains above the 2% target level.

Inflation will hardly drop considerably because of high wages in the United States. According to the Nonfarm Payrolls report for October, the economy added 261,000 new jobs, exceeding the previous forecast readings. At the same time, last month the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.5%. Economists at Capital Economics said that given the wage growth, it would be hard to push inflation to the 2% target. For this reason, the Fed is likely to stick to aggressive tightening.

The greenback was somewhat stuck in the narrow range due to market uncertainty. Judging by the data on the US dollar index (USDX), last week large traders significantly reduced their long positions on USD. If this trend persists, the US currency may lose momentum. However, many analysts are betting on a further rally of the greenback. On November 7, the EUR/USD pair was trading at 0.9962, showing steady growth. However, UBS analysts stress that in March 2023, the pair may fall to 0.9600. It is quite curious given that now there are plenty of fundamental factors for a rise to 1.0000 and above.

Alan Greenspan, the former Fed Chairman, expects a buoyant rally of the US dollar in 2023. Such a scenario is possible even if the regulator makes smaller rate hikes. If inflation peaks in early 2023, the US currency will continue to grow, Greenspan stressed.

This year, the US dollar has been rising mainly amid more aggressive tightening compared to other central banks. Many USD rivals, in particular the euro and the pound sterling, have reached multi-year lows due to the divergence in monetary policy. In addition, the Fed is actively shrinking its balance sheet, boosting the US dollar in the long term.

Analysts at UBS assume that next year the greenback is likely to retain its upside potential. At the moment, it is too early to talk about the end of the rally as inflation remains high. UBS believes that the central bank will continue to aggressively raise rates until a steady decrease in inflation. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the greenback is projected to grow and in the first quarter of 2023, it may reach new highs. This might be the first step towards the possible slowdown of the Fed's tightening hike cycle, analysts believe.
 

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Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on November 9, 2022

Details of the economic calendar from November 8
The midterm elections to the US Congress are in the center of everyone's attention. During which the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate will be re-elected. The first polling stations closed in a number of districts of Indiana and Kentucky at 23:00 UTC, and the last at 05:00 UTC - stations in Alaska and Hawaii stopped accepting ballots.

Ballot counting is still ongoing. As a result, 435 members of the House of Representatives and a third of its Senate will be elected. In addition, the governors of 36 states and three US overseas territories are elected.

As I wrote in the previous article, the victory of the Republicans will lead to heavy clashes in promoting legislative initiatives of the White House. As a result, characteristic uncertainty and even investors' fears may arise, which will lead to the sale of the US dollar.

Analysis of trading charts from November 8
The EUR/USD currency pair continues to show an upward trend in the market. A short stagnation within the parity level was replaced by a subsequent inertial move, which let the quote approach the local high of October.

The GBP/USD currency pair managed to maintain the upward cycle previously set in the market during the impulse jump. As a result, the quote remained above the 1.1525 mark. The scale of the strengthening of the pound sterling from November 4 to November 8 is about 400 points.

Economic calendar for November 9
Today, the macroeconomic calendar is empty, and it would not be of interest to traders because all their attention is focused on counting ballots.

Thus, investors and traders will monitor the information and news flow coming to the media and act on the market in relation to it.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on November 9
In this situation, the value of 1.0100 is considered a variable resistance level. In order for there to be a subsequent increase in the volume of long positions, the quote needs to stay above this value for at least a four-hour period. In this case, both the current upward cycle and the corrective move from the bottom of the downward trend will be prolonged.

At the same time, traders are considering the scenario of a price rebound from 1.0100. In this case, the inertial move may be interrupted, and the quote will return to the parity level limit.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on November 9
A stable holding of the price above 1.1525 may lead to a prolongation of the upward cycle. Under this scenario, it is possible to update the local high of October, which, in turn, will open the way in the direction of the resistance level 1.1750.

As for the downward scenario, it will again be considered by traders in case the price returns to the boundaries of the area of interaction of trading forces 1.1410/1.1525.

What is shown in the trading charts?
A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices.

Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market.

Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future.

The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 10/11/2022

The first thing you should pay attention to is that since the beginning of the week, the dollar has fallen sharply in price, and the rebound was asking for it. Moreover, it was only the political factor that put pressure on it, in the form of uncertainty about the results of the midterm elections. So as soon as it became clear that the Democrats were apparently gaining control of the Senate, the US currency immediately began to actively rise in price. Although the counting of votes is still ongoing, and less than half of the ballots have been counted at some polling stations. Nevertheless, so far everything is going to the fact that the Democrats take the Senate, while the Republicans take the House of Representatives. The main driver of the dollar's weakening was the assumption that the Republican Party would win a crushing victory and gain control of both chambers of Congress.

There is a high probability that the dollar will be able to further strengthen its position today. The reason for this may be the US inflation report. And although the growth rate of consumer prices is likely to slow down from 8.2% to 8.1%, this still means that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates. Firstly, inflation remains at an extremely high level. Secondly, on a monthly basis, consumer prices should increase by 0.5%, whereas a month earlier they increased by 0.4%. In other words, prices continue not only to grow, but there are signs of even a possible acceleration of this process. Consequently, the US central bank will continue to pursue an extremely tight monetary policy.

Inflation (United States):

The EURUSD currency pair bounced precisely from the area of the local high in October. As a result, there was a pullback in the direction of the parity level.

During the price rebound, the RSI H4 indicator came out of the overbought zone. This is a fairly good technical signal about the regrouping of trading forces. It is worth noting that the indicator has not gone below the average line of 50, which indicates the bullish mood in the market.

The moving MA lines on Alligator H4 and D1 are directed upwards, which corresponds to an ascending cycle.

Expectations and prospects

In this situation, the parity level serves as a support in the market. Thus, it is possible to strengthen long positions. We expect the euro to rise only if the price stays above October's local high in a four-hour period.

As for the downward scenario, in order to consider it, the quote must first stay below the 0.9950 mark. This price move may restart short positions.

Comprehensive indicator analysis in the short-term and intraday periods has a sell signal due to the recent price rebound. In the medium term, the signal from the indicator is focused on an upward corrective move from the low of the trend.

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Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 11/11/2022

Inflation, or rather the reassessment of the Federal Reserve's succeeding actions, turned out to be much more important for the market than the results of the midterm elections in the United States. Moreover, the counting of votes is still ongoing. So as soon as it became known that the growth rate of consumer prices in the United States slowed from 8.2% to 7.7%, a real rally began in almost all markets. The only exception was probably the oil market. But the pound jumped by more than three hundred points. After all, if inflation slows down much faster than forecasts, and the most desperate optimists expected it to fall to 8.0%, then the Fed has no reason to further tighten monetary policy. In other words, the US central bank may well start lowering interest rates next year. It was this change in expectations that caused the dollar to fall sharply.

Inflation (United States):

But the movement turned out to be so impressive that a rebound, or even a local correction, would only take a matter of time. And it is quite possible that today's preliminary data on UK GDP will just be an excellent reason for this. Indeed, according to forecasts, the economic growth rate of the United Kingdom should slow down from 4.4% to 2.3%.

GDP growth Rate (UK):

The pound has strengthened in value by more than 350 points against the US dollar. This strong inertial move led to a control tracking of the price with subsequent resistance levels of 1.1750.

The RSI H1 technical instrument entered the overbought zone during such an intense price move, which corresponds to a convergence with the resistance level. RSI D1 is moving confidently in the upper area of the 50/70 indicator, which indicates ongoing upward interest in the market.

The MA moving lines on Alligator H4 and D1 are directed upwards, this signal corresponds to the general mood of market participants.

Expectations and prospects

In this situation, the technical signal about the overbought pound still takes place on the market. For this reason, traders are considering the scenario of a price pullback from the resistance level of 1.1750.

As for the subsequent upward cycle, market participants will consider it in case the price stays stable above the 1.1750 level. With this development, the overbought signal will be ignored by traders.

Complex indicator analysis in the short, intraday and medium-term periods has a buy signal due to the upward cycle.
 

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Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on November 14, 2022

Details of the economic calendar of November 11
The macroeconomic calendar focused only on statistics from the UK, which came out better than expected. The final estimate of GDP for the 3rd quarter reflected a slowdown in the economy from 4.40% to 2.40%, with forecast of 2.10%. Meanwhile, the rate of decline in industrial production is slowing down from -4.3% to -3.1%, although forecast assumed that the indicators would remain at the same level.

As a result, the pound sterling, overbought in recent days, continues to hold its positions in the market.

As for the US ballot count, the preliminary totals are:

House of Representatives: Democrats 204 - Republicans 212. Control requires 218 seats out of 435.

Senate: Democrats 50 - Republicans 49. Control requires 51 seats out of 100.

The data is not final, the ballots are still being counted.

Analysis of trading charts from November 11
The EUR/USD currency pair appreciated more than 450 points during the past week. This strong inertial move led to the update of the corrective cycle from the low of the downward trend. As a result, the euro reached the subsequent resistance level of 1.0350.

The GBP/USD currency pair gained more than 550 points during the past week. This unprecedented inertial move overcame the local autumn highs. As a result, the corrective movement from the low of the downward trend was prolonged, where the overall scale of the strengthening of the pound sterling is about 14.5%, which is about 1500 points.

Economic calendar for November 14
The new trading week starts with data on the industrial production of the European Union, whose growth rate may accelerate from 2.5% to 3.3%. This is a positive factor for the EU economy, which can stimulate the euro.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on November 14
In view of the clear signal that the euro is oversold, a price rebound from the 1.0350 resistance level is allowed. In this case, sellers will receive local support in the market, and buyers will be able to regroup their positions.

Traders will consider the subsequent upward movement if the price holds above the level of 1.0350, at least in a four-hour period. In this case, we will receive a technical signal about the prolongation of the ascending cycle.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on November 14
The new trading week was opened with a downward GAP, where the overbought pound sterling entered the stage of a technical pullback. The previously passed 1.1750 resistance level now serves as support, where the quote returned during the pullback.

Presumably, the upward inertial mood still takes place in the market. For this reason, a price return above 1.1855 could restart long positions. As for the current pullback, for its prolongation and transition to the correction mode, it is necessary to be consistently below the level of 1.1750.

What is shown in the trading charts?
A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices.

Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market.

Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future.

The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.

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Is the yen deflating?

The dollar-yen pair is gradually recovering from a collapse that happened last week. At the start of Tuesday, the major pair received a new breath from the economic data of Japan.

Recall that last week the USD/JPY pair experienced the most dramatic fall in 14 years. According to the results of five sessions, it sank by almost 6% and fell below 139.

The ground from under the dollar's feet was knocked out by data on inflation in the United States. The statistics for October turned out to be much softer than the forecast, which increased traders' fears about a possible slowdown in the pace of tightening in America.

The greenback was able to return to life only after the weekend. It was revived a bit by a hawkish commentary by Christopher Waller.

On Sunday, a member of the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors said it's unreasonable to judge the weakening of inflation by just one month. The central bank will need to get some more hard evidence before moving to a less aggressive policy.

Hints of further sharp rate hikes in the US helped USD/JPY recover slightly. Yesterday, the quote rose by more than 0.5% and crossed the threshold of 140.

This morning, the pair has confidently settled above this level, having received support from Japan's macro statistics. Shocking data on GDP for the third quarter came out at the beginning of the day, which not only fell short of the forecast, but also turned out to be much worse than preliminary estimates.

The report showed that on a quarterly basis, the Japanese economy fell by 0.3% against expectations of growth of 0.3%. And in annual terms, the indicator fell by 1.2%, while an increase of 1.1% was predicted.

According to analysts at Bloomberg, the unexpected contraction in Japan's GDP reflects the impact of a weaker yen on the economy.

This year, the JPY has fallen by more than 20% against the dollar due to the strong divergence in the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the Fed.

Unlike its American counterpart, which actively fights inflation by raising rates, the Japanese central bank adheres to an ultra-soft rate and maintains ultra-low rates.

The weakness of the currency led to an increase in the country's spending on imports, which significantly undermined the growth of Japan's economy, which was already very fragile.

Japan has yet to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. It is for this reason that the BOJ continues to go the dovish route and pump liquidity into the economy.

Recall that last month, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida developed another stimulus package, and his cabinet approved an additional budget of $207 billion to fund these measures.

As you can see, the circle is closed: the soft monetary rate necessary for GDP growth weakens the yen, and this further slows down the economy. Japan has found itself in a trap into which it has driven itself, and is unlikely to find a way out in the near future.

Now, as fears of a global recession are rising amid a massive increase in rates, it is becoming increasingly clear that the recovery of the Japanese economy is once again being postponed.

And given the latest data on GDP, many analysts have no doubt that the BOJ can further strengthen the dovish rhetoric at its next meeting. This will be another blow to the yen.

Experts predict that the JPY's downtrend will continue despite speculation about a possible slowdown in US rate hikes, especially since the market has already taken this risk into account.

Most investors are well aware that the US central bank has not yet finished its fight against rising prices. To return inflation to its target, it will have to raise rates a few more times.

But even if the central bank does it less abruptly than before, the dollar-yen pair should still get at least the slightest benefit from each round of rate hikes.

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Gold breaks the trend

Dashing trouble began. After Jerome Powell's fiery speech about a higher peak federal funds rate, who would have thought that gold would not just bounce back but return to 3-month highs? In fact, the slowdown in the rate of tightening of the Fed's monetary policy is a bullish driver for XAUUSD. If inflation remains at elevated levels for a long time, and the Central Bank slows monetary restrictions and eventually pauses, real yields on Treasury bonds will fall, allowing the precious metal to rise above $1,800 an ounce.

The main catalysts of the 9.5% November gold rally were the releases of data on consumer prices and producer prices. Both indicators slowed down more than Bloomberg experts predicted, which gave rise to talk that the Fed is doing its job well and can afford less aggression. In the end, the tightening of monetary policy affects the economy with a time lag, rates are already at restrictive levels, so you can not go as fast as before.

However, in order to defeat inflation, you need to understand its causes well. The Fed and the White House have gone too far with stimulus in response to the pandemic. As a result, domestic demand grew by 21.4% in the three years to the end of the second quarter of 2022, which is equivalent to an annual GDP growth of 6.7%. No wonder inflation is so high and the job market is strong as a bull. Americans sitting on a mountain of dollars are in no hurry to return to work.

Dynamics of domestic demand in the US, Britain and the Eurozone

Sooner or later, the money runs out, which will lead to a slowdown in consumer prices in the US by itself. The Fed's aggressive monetary restriction can strengthen their decline. There will be a risk of deflation on the horizon, as in Japan. Ark Invest agrees with this scenario. The company sets the example of the beginning of the 20th century, which was overshadowed by the First World War and the Spanish flu epidemic. Inflation in 1920 in the United States exceeded 20%, but thanks to an aggressive increase in the federal funds rate from 4.6% to 7%, it fell to -15% in 2021.

Current conditions have much in common with the period of a hundred years ago. The same scenario of the development of events is not excluded, but in my opinion, it is unlikely. Its implementation would be disastrous for gold, returning its quotes to $1,610 per ounce.

On the contrary, a scenario where the Fed slows down and eventually pauses while inflation remains at elevated levels creates a tailwind for the precious metal. Simultaneously with the fall in real yields of Treasury bonds, the US dollar is also weakening.

Technically, on the daily chart of gold, due to the implementation of the triple bottom pattern the long-term bearish trend was broken. Quotes have gone beyond the descending trading channel and are moving away from the moving averages. I recommend holding the longs formed on the decline to the support at $1,702 and periodically increasing on pullbacks. The targets are $1,790 and $1,815 per ounce.
 

[KostiaForexMart]

Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on November 17, 2022

Details of the economic calendar of November 16
Inflation in the UK reached a 41-year high. The consumer price index rose from 10.1% to 11.1%. Consequently, the Bank of England will continue to raise interest rates at the same pace.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on this occasion that inflation control is a key goal of the government.

As for the US ballot count, the preliminary totals are:

House of Representatives: Democrats 211 - Republicans 218. Control requires 218 seats out of 435.

Senate: Democrats 50 - Republicans 49. Control requires 51 seats out of 100.

Although counting of votes is still ongoing, President Joe Biden officially congratulated the future House speaker Kevin McCarthy on his election victory.

The Republican Party gains control of the US House of Representatives in the midterm elections.

Analysis of trading charts from November 16

The GBPUSD currency pair is in the stage of a pullback-stagnation relative to the psychological level of 1.2000. The absence of a transition to a full-size correction suggests that traders' interest in long positions on the pound sterling is still maintained in the market.

The EURUSD currency pair formed a stagnation at the conditional peak of the ascending cycle. This occurred after the quote came close to the 1.0500 resistance level.

Economic calendar for November 17
Today, the final data on inflation in the European Union is expected, the growth rate of which should accelerate from 9.9% to 10.7%. The market is more ready for these indicators, so if they coincide, you should not expect anything drastic. In any case, rising inflation is a clear signal that the ECB will continue to raise interest rates at the current pace.

During the American trading session, weekly data on jobless claims in the United States will be published, where figures are expected to rise. This is a negative factor for the US labor market.

Statistics details:

The volume of continuing claims for benefits may increase from 1.493 million to 1.5 million.

The volume of initial claims for benefits may remain at the same level of 225,000.

Time targeting:

EU Inflation – 10:00 UTC

US Jobless Claims – 13:30 UTC

Trading plan for EUR/USD on November 17
In this situation, the stagnation of the past day can serve as a catalyst for trading forces, in which there was a regrouping of working positions. In this case, subsequent price jumps are not excluded. The following values are considered as signal levels: 1.2050, in case of an upward scenario, which may lead to the prolongation of the current cycle; 1.1750, while holding below this value, a transition from the pullback stage to the full-size correction stage is possible.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on November 17
Little has changed on the chart compared to the previous day—the quote is standing still. This means that there is a process of accumulation of trading forces before a new speculative price jump.

From a technical analysis point of view, the signal levels are in the values: 1.0500 for an upward scenario and 1.0300 for a downward price development.

What is shown in the trading charts?
A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices.

Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market.

Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future.

The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.
 

[KostiaForexMart]

USD/JPY. The yen ignores the record inflation report and follows the dollar

The dollar-yen pair earlier this week updated a three-month price low, reaching 137.70. However, the USD/JPY bears failed to settle in the area of the 137th figure - dollar bulls stopped the downward momentum and turned the pair 180 degrees.

In general, the trajectory of the pair's movement correlates with the trajectory of the US dollar index. Once again, we are convinced that the yen is not an independent player against the greenback. The Japanese currency certainly has its trump card, but it rather serves as a "stop tap". We are talking about a currency intervention, the risk of which increases along with the USD/JPY rate. In this context, we can say that the Japanese government controls the upper limit of the price range within which the pair is traded. According to most analysts, this limit is in the area of the 150.00 mark: exceeding this target is fraught with consequences. As for the lower limit of the conditional price range, everything depends on the "well-being" of the US currency. USD/JPY bears are forced to follow the greenback, which determines the end point of any downward surge. The yen has no arguments of its own to strengthen – primarily due to the divergence of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan rates.

The events of the last days serve as evidence of this. They eloquently illustrated the stated disposition, the essence of which boils down to an uncomplicated conclusion: the downtrend ends exactly where the dollar recovery begins.

As you know, the US currency significantly sank throughout the market after the release of the latest data on the growth of inflation in the United States. The market started talking about the fact that the Fed will slow down the pace of monetary policy tightening at the next meeting, which will be held in December. A little later, these assumptions were confirmed by many representatives of the Fed: according to them, the central bank can afford to reduce the speed, while maintaining the final goal at the same level (that is, above the 5.0% mark).

At first, traders mostly focused their attention directly on the fact of slowing down the pace of tightening of the monetary policy. But then they "listened" to the signals from the Fed representatives, who made it clear that no one was going to curtail the hawkish course – only the speed of achieving the goal slows down. In particular, Christopher Waller, a member of the Board of Governors, said that the markets should now pay attention to the "end point" of the rate hike, and not to the pace of its achievement. At the same time, he noted that the end point is probably "still very far away." Some of his colleagues also stated that, firstly, inflation in the United States is still at too high a level; secondly, it is impossible to make any long-term organizational conclusions based on only one report.

Such messages eased the pressure on the dollar, and, accordingly, cooled the ardor of bears of the USD/JPY pair. Turning to the upside, the pair gradually began to gain momentum, rising by 250 points in two days. At the same time, traders ignore Japanese statistics, even when it comes to the inflation report.

Key data on the growth of inflation in Japan was published during the Asian session on Friday. The report reflected a record growth of key indicators. For example, the overall consumer price index rose by 3.7% in October, which is the strongest growth rate of the indicator since 1982. The core CPI, which does not include fresh food, but includes energy prices (petroleum products), also updated the 40-year record. The consumer price index, excluding food and energy prices, jumped 2.5% year-on-year in October.

All components of the above report came out in the green zone, significantly exceeding the forecast levels. It is worth noting that inflation has been exceeding the BOJ's 2% target for seven months, but at the same time BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda continues to "hold the line", maintaining a soft monetary policy. This, in fact, explains such a phlegmatic reaction of USD/JPY traders to the report published today. Market participants reasonably doubt that Kuroda will toughen his rhetoric in response to the published figures.

Thus, the fate of the USD/JPY downward trend depends solely on the behavior of the US currency, which is gradually beginning to "come to its senses". After all, even taking into account the slowdown in the rate hike, the Fed continues to act as an ally of the greenback, and even more so in tandem with another, which cannot count on the support of the BOJ. In my opinion, the rhetoric of the Fed representatives will only tighten ahead of the December meeting (at least in the context of determining the upper limit of the current cycle), while Kuroda will once again ignore the inflation report, declaring the preservation of the accommodative policy.

All this suggests that the USD/JPY pair may demonstrate a more confident growth in the near future – at least to the Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart, which corresponds to the 142.40 mark. If we talk about the medium term, the main target here is 145.50: at this price point, the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator coincides with the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on the D1 timeframe.

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The Fed writes between the lines. The dollar is lost in speculation. No clear strategy or desire to play with the markets

The dollar index is showing signs of recovery. Perhaps it will show even stronger signs in the coming sessions. However, traders will refrain from making bold attempts to push the dollar higher before the release of the Federal Reserve minutes. The fact that we are facing a short week may also play a role here. The United States will be celebrating its Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, which will lead to lower activity in markets and limited reaction to market data and other news.

Wednesday will be an important trading day. A series of macroeconomic data will be released on this day, as well as the minutes. There might be a flurry of activity before holidays and weekends. It is possible that there will be a delayed reaction to all of this as early as next week. In the meantime, markets are evaluating or rather quietly studying the fresh opinions of the Fed members on the central bank's further steps.

The main question is whether the central bank will eventually shorten the time period during which it is not expected to pause in policy tightening. No matter what the Fed members say, investors are hoping for less aggressive measures and an early transition to dovish rhetoric. They will be looking for signals for such a scenario in all publications, statements and other news reports.

News from the Fed

The speech of the head of the San Francisco Fed, Mary Daly, was quite long. The members of the central bank don't seem to have a definite line on what they plan to do next. Now is the time when they are thinking and discussing their next steps.

Citing new research from her regional bank, Daly said that "the level of financial tightening in the economy is much higher than what the (federal) funds says." Financial markets are acting as if it is about 6%.

Markets have priced in QE parameters that far exceed those outlined by the Fed. In this regard, Daly noted that "it will be important to remain conscious of this gap between the federal funds rate and the tightening in the financial markets. Ignoring it raises the chances of tightening too much."

Anyway, the Fed still has a lot of work to do to steer monetary policy in the right direction to curb inflation. Those were probably the key words.

Daly, speaking to reporters, made no secret of the fact that she has yet to decide which rate hike she will support at the December FOMC meeting. We need to look at new economic data before making a decision.

The central bank representative also warned against using the market funds rate of 6% as a benchmark for determining the actual policy.

"I use the proxy rate as a point of reference, not as an indication that we should stop early," Daly summarized.

In economic forecasts released in September, the central bank's policy makers outlined an average target rate of 4% for the next year. Most officials have since assumed that, given the dynamics of inflation and the continuing strength of the labor market, they may want to go higher. Daly did not rule out the possibility of an increase to 5.25%.

At the same time, everyone understands and knows that raising rates too sharply will cause great damage to the economy, so the possibility of reducing the size of individual rate hikes is being discussed in parallel. In addition, recent data showing signs that inflation may slow down has given officials some room for such a maneuver.

Daly said in her formal remarks that the next stage for the Fed will be "in many ways more difficult". She added that officials will need to be "mindful" of their choices and its consequences. Too much adjustment can lead to an unnecessarily painful recession. At the same time, "adjusting too little will leave inflation too high".

The dollar reflects

BNP Paribas has provided a number of new interesting research for dollar bulls. According to analysts' calculations, the bottom of the stock market in the current bear market has not yet been reached.

After analyzing 100 years of crashes, BNP Paribas finds market bottoms typically require a capitulation event – which is associated with a coordinated spike in volatility, skew, and convexity.

"We have not yet seen this, suggesting that the bottom is not yet in," says Calvin Tse, Head of US Macro research, at BNP Paribas. "Recessionary bear markets historically have often ended with a capitulation. We are calling for a capitulation in equities next year."

Therefore, if the bottom of the stock market has not yet been reached, then neither is the dollar's peak.

The dollar is countercyclical and rises in bad market conditions as investors seek cash as protection against asset depreciation. If the BNP Paribas economists' assessment has merit, then those who advocate for a stronger dollar could win.

Meanwhile, the dollar index rose for the third consecutive session and is trading near the key barrier at 108.00. Although, the bulls' grip eased somewhat.

The uptrend meets obstacles in the way. However, if it breaks through the 109.18 resistance and then the 109.70 level, it could encourage the exchange rate to rise in the short term.

Today's dollar losses could be due to the fact that investors are cautiously awaiting the latest Fed meeting's minutes, which could affect the U.S. rate forecast. Traders also analyzed various comments from Fed officials and found them largely soft. Central Bank officials are still sticking to their version of lower inflation, but doubts are certainly present.

Meanwhile, the dollar index jumped 1% on Monday due to the worsening Covid situation in China. This factor is known to have a short-term effect.

[KostiaForexMart]

USD unable to regain momentum; GBP to face strong resistance level

Next week, the trajectory of some pairs may change dramatically. The US dollar is also expected to resume an upward movement. If so, it will increase pressure on its rivals. Fed policymakers could also provide more comments on future plans for monetary policy. Some Fed members could even speak in favor of the fifth consecutive rate increase by 75 basis points at the December meeting.

Yesterday, the pound sterling rose above 1.2000 for the first time since August. Such a sharp increase occurred amid the falling US dollar before Thanksgiving Day and fundamental factors. As trading floors in the US are closed, the pound sterling will be able to climb higher in the coming sessions.

Why has the pound sterling started steady growth? Is there a likelihood of a rise in the greenback next week?

GBP maintains bull run

The British currency jumped against the US dollar, the euro, and other major currencies on Wednesday and Thursday, following the news about a surge in the UK's government debt.

The GBP/USD pair was trading around a high of 1.2110.

Falling government bond yields are signaling confidence in the improving economic conditions in the UK.

As a reminder, Treasury yields grew considerably after the announcement of the September mini-budget of former Prime Minister Liz Truss. Investors demanded higher interest premiums to purchase UK debt.

Following a jump in government bond yields, the cost of borrowing increased drastically. It led to the destabilization of the UK financial sector and worsened the economic downturn. The pound sterling reacted with a nosedive.

The current decline in Treasury yields indicates an improvement in the UK's economic prospects.

The GBP/USD pair grew by 16% after the political woes in late September.

After several months of volatility and lows, the pound sterling may finally recover. Naturally, not all problems have disappeared completely but it is easier to assess risks at the current levels, analysts HSBC pointed out.

In their latest forecast, they predicted a rally during 2023.

As for growth yesterday, it was facilitated by some internal factors. The economic reports turned out to be better than expected. The PMI Indices for November increased after a long time of contraction.

There is no denying that the country is in a recession but traders are well aware of it. Therefore, the market reaction is likely to be quite strong to positive reports. In other words, traders will pay more attention to upbeat reports, ignoring bad ones.

Besides, traders are no longer concerned about another bearish factor that has been weighing on the British currency for some time. The UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish government cannot hold a referendum for independence without the UK government's approval.

This news also supported the pound sterling today.

USD not ready to give up

On Wednesday, the greenback saw a big sell-off. It dropped lower after the release of the economic reports. The Manufacturing PMI Index slid below 50. The labor market seems to be losing steam as well. Analysts were not surprised.

Economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics believe that the number of initial jobless claims has been gradually rising for some time as firms are facing challenges due to the Fed's aggressive tightening.

The Manufacturing and Services PMI Indices fell at the fastest pace since August and the 2008 financial crisis. Recessions in both sectors have become deeper.

Meanwhile, new home sales soared by 632,000 in October after a downwardly revised figure of 588,000. It was the first increase in three months. The US dollar managed to recover slightly amid this report. However, this data is quite controversial given a decrease in mortgage demand.

The University of Michigan's inflation expectations has declined this month. The Fed is sure to take notice of this survey. The greenback may start a short-term rally.

As seen, the US economic reports are rather controversial. It is hard to get a clear picture of the economic situation.

ING economists are concerned that a 7% fall in the US dollar against its rivals and a drop in the 10-year government bond yield has led to a significant weakening of financial conditions. The result is the exact opposite of what the central bank is trying to achieve.

It would not be surprising if the Fed's rhetoric becomes even more hawkish next week.

One year ahead inflation expectations decreased to 4.9% from 5%. At the same time, the figures remain at a level more than twice exceeding the Fed's target of 2%. Five years ahead inflation expectations also remained above the target.

Inflation expectations will hardly force the Fed to change its hawkish stance. Investors may again abandon their expatiations of a softer stance next week after studying the November meeting minutes and returning to the market after the holiday.

Traders are likely to pay attention to how many Fed policymakers are backing further aggressive tightening. At the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that officials could raise interest rates even higher than 4.5-4.75% than initially projected in September.
 

[KostiaForexMart]

GBP/USD. End of the "Scottish issue"

The GBP/USD pair tested the 21st figure on Thursday - for the first time since the beginning of August. This is mainly due to the dollar getting weaker, as it stopped moving upward across the market. U.S. trading floors were closed yesterday (Thanksgiving Day in America), and the minutes of the November FOMC meeting, published the day before, were interpreted against the dollar. Such a fundamental background made it possible for GBP/USD bulls to hit a new multi-month high, marking 1.2152.

Take note that the bulls were getting closer to the area of 20 figures during the last two weeks. After almost a week-long flat in the range of 1.1800-1.1950, the bulls decided to make a swift upward move, which enabled them not only to cross the level of 1.2000, but to also probe the area of the 21st figure. Do remember that the pound's growth was caused not only by the dollar getting weaker, but because it also had political overtones.

The fact is that this week the British Supreme Court rejected the Scottish referendum bid for independence. According to the court's verdict, the Scottish government cannot initiate a second referendum without the UK Parliament's approval.

In other words, the Supreme Court put an end to a long-playing story that has emerged (making GBP/USD traders nervous) and then disappeared into oblivion. Therefore, this court ruling is strategically important for the British currency. The pound got rid of a threat that had been hanging over it for several years, threatening to collapse. After all, if the Supreme Court verdict had been the opposite, next year the UK could have experienced events comparable to those of 2016, when the historic referendum on Brexit was held.

As mentioned, the so-called "Scottish issue" has been hyped from time to time in the global press, going beyond local discussions in the local media. The last time this topic was actively discussed was at the end of last year, when the problems associated with the Coronavirus receded into the background. Back in September 2021, Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon confirmed at the Scottish National Party conference that she was planning to hold a second independence referendum before the end of 2023. She stressed that these plans, put on pause because of the pandemic, are "unchanged."

Recall that in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, 45% of those who voted "for" and 55% voted "against." That is, the majority voted for union with Great Britain. This plebiscite was held two years before another - historic - referendum, where the majority of British residents (though by a slim margin) voted for secession from the European Union. The Scots, in turn, were unequivocal: nearly 70% of the region's population voted against Brexit. After that "separatist" sentiments intensified in the region. According to experts, Scotland is now essentially divided 50/50 on independence. But analysts don't rule out a possibility that many politically neutral residents of Scotland can mobilize if necessary and use the chance that fell out. After all, it would obviously present itself to them next time in several decades. That is why sociologists have repeatedly warned that at the "X hour", when hypothetical plans for a new referendum take shape, the scales will tip in favor of the region's independence.

But to the disappointment of supporters of Scottish independence, the Supreme Court did not allow the local authorities to organize a second vote without an approval from the British Parliament.

Downing Street has already rushed to say that the Cabinet will not allow another plebiscite. According to the government, this is a "once in a generation" event. It is obvious that the Conservatives, who control the House of Commons (and will control it at least until 2024) will not allow the Scottish nationalists to realize the idea of another referendum. Therefore, this issue can be considered closed: for the foreseeable future, all slogans and calls for Scottish independence will have no effect on the pair.

However, despite the importance and significance of the Supreme Court ruling, the pair's fate now depends on the dollar's behavior. The "Scottish issue" usually flares up brightly, but fades quickly. And it looks like this time it will fade today and for a long time. Next week traders of dollar pairs will focus on the Federal Reserve representatives' rhetoric. The market's tumultuous reaction to the minutes of the November FOMC meeting suggests that the dollar continues to "rule" the currency pairs of the major group. Traders in the second round played back the news that the U.S. central bank will slow down the pace of monetary policy tightening as early as December. But at the same time, the question of what level of the rate the central bank will stop at in the current cycle is still a matter of debate. And this discussion, the degree of "hawkishness" of which will be determined by members of the Fed, will allow GBP/USD traders to determine the vector of price movement.

In my opinion, the Fed's minutes will fade into the background at the beginning of next week (Fed representatives have already announced all the theses of this document). The focus will be on U.S. statistics (Nonfarm) and comments of the Fed members. If they reiterate that it is not the speed of rate hikes that matters but the end of the current cycle, then the dollar may come out on top again. The probability of this scenario is quite high, given the earlier statements of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and many of his hawkish wing colleagues.

Bulls on GBP/USD, who are taking advantage of the moment (shortened trading session on Friday, low liquidity), may try to cross the resistance level of 1.2150 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the D1 timeframe) again. However, taking into account the current fundamental background, it is better to wait for the upward momentum to end, and by next week, you should consider short positions with the first target being 1.1940 (the Tenkan-sen line on D1) and the main target at 1.1700 (the middle line of Bollinger Bands on the same timeframe).

[KostiaForexMart]

Trading Signal for GBP/USD on November 28-29, 2022: buy above 1.2025 (21 SMA - GAP)

Early in the European, session the British pound (GBP/USD) is trading around 1.2043. The currency pair is going through a slight technical bounce, having reached a low of around 1.2025.

According to the 4-hour chart, we can see that the British pound has formed a bearish GAP around 1.2089 which was Friday's close. If GBP/USD bounces above the 21 SMA located at 1.2020, it could cover the gap and could reach the top of the downtrend channel around 1.2096.

In case the British pound breaks above the downtrend channel formed on November 23 and settles above 1.2097, it will be a clear signal to resume buying and the price could reach +2/8 Murray located at 1.2207.

Conversely, if GBP/USD breaks below the psychological 1.20 level, it could fall rapidly towards 1.1962 (+1/8 Murray) and could even reach the area between the support of 8/8 Murray (1.1718) and 200 EMA (1.1649).

The eagle indicator is trading above a downtrend channel. A technical correction is expected in the next few hours and then the pair will resume its bullish cycle. Therefore, the British pound is expected to trade above the psychological 1.20 level, which will be a signal to continue buying.

The strength of the US dollar (USDX), observed in the last hours of trading on Friday, was boosted by risk aversion, causing a reversal in GBP/USD. The British pound is likely to make a strong technical correction in the coming days due to overbought levels on the daily chart.

According to the daily chart, we can see that the British pound has a 200 EMA located at 1.21. As long as GBP/USD trades below this level, any technical bounce will be seen as a clear signal to sell, with short-term targets around 1.1697.

Our trading plan in the next few hours is to buy the British pound above 1.2035, with targets at 1.2096 and 1.2207 (+2/8 Murray). On the other hand, if the pound falls below the psychological level of 1.20, it will be a signal to sell with targets at 1.1650.

[KostiaForexMart]

EUR/USD. The euro has two problems - Lagarde and China

Another attempt to attack the 4th figure ended in failure. On Monday, EUR/USD bulls hit a five-month price high at 1.0498. However, the pair did not stay at this level for long - the price fell during the US session and finished the trading day at 1.0340. If the impulsive growth was unreasonable and unusual (despite the news from China), then the downward momentum was provoked by quite a specific person - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.

Lagarde delivered her semi-annual report to members of the European Parliament Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. The theme of the report was directly related to monetary policy, so the speech triggered increased volatility in the pair. And it was not in favor of the euro. It's notable that Lagarde voiced quite contradictory rhetoric. There were different ways to evaluate her speech, both in its favor and against. In the end, traders chose the second option: as a result, the euro weakened not only against the greenback, but also in many cross-pairs.

So, on the one hand, Lagarde said that the ECB will continue to raise rates, despite the slowdown in business activity in the eurozone. She acknowledged that high levels of uncertainty, tighter financial conditions, and declining global demand are putting pressure on economic growth in the European Union. But the record growth of inflation in the eurozone, according to her, is forcing the ECB to move on. Lagarde expressed doubt that the consumer price index in the eurozone has reached its peak values. She noted that the cost of wholesale energy supplies continues to rise (which is the main driver of headline inflation), so a slowdown in CPI growth in November seems extremely unlikely.

Lagarde said that she "would be surprised" if inflation reached its peak in October.

Certainly, the talking points are hawkish. In other circumstances, EUR/USD bulls would have taken advantage of the situation and rushed upwards, building on their success (i.e. in our case they would have settled in the area of the 5th figure).

If it were not for one "but".

The fact is that Lagarde made it clear in the European Parliament that slowing down the pace of interest rate increases in December is still a matter of debate. In doing so she took a neutral position in the corresponding dispute of many ECB representatives. Mario Centeno, Philip Lane, Francois Villeroy de Galo and Klaas Knot, among others, spoke publicly in favor of a lower rate of monetary policy tightening. Whereas the hawkish wing of the central bank, such as Robert Holzmann, Isabelle Schnabel and Joachim Nagel, came out in favor of a 75-point rate hike in December. Lagarde stayed "above the fray." According to her, the central bank will make an appropriate decision based on many factors: "...it will be based on our updated outlook, the persistence of the shocks, the reaction of wages and inflation expectations, and on our assessment of the transmission of our policy stance". Based on a comprehensive analysis of these factors, the ECB will decide how far rates should be raised and how fast.

Such statements sobered up the EUR/USD bulls and then the price rolled back and headed to the daily lows, to the area of the third figure. Even in the first half of Monday, the ball was on the side of euro-dollar pair bulls, which took advantage of the weakening of the greenback and the strengthening of the hawkish mood regarding the ECB's further actions. But the diplomatic wording of Lagarde, which allows for various scenarios (both dovish and hawkish) did not allow the bulls to consolidate their success. The bears took the initiative and pulled the price back to its previous positions.

On top of that, in the afternoon, the market finally reacted to events in China, which unfolded too dynamically and unexpectedly.

First, the number of coronavirus cases in China is surging. Last Thursday, Beijing reported 31,000 new infections, noting that this was the strongest daily rate of increase in the history of the pandemic. But a little later, it turned out that PRC anti-records are updated almost daily. For example, the number of diseases has already exceeded the 40,000 mark on Monday. COVID outbreak in China is fraught with another wave of lockdowns. Strict quarantine has already been imposed in many cities across the country, with millions of people locked in their homes. Enterprises and firms have moved their employees to remote work schedules (where this is possible due to the nature of their work). China is known to have a "zero tolerance" policy for the Coronavirus, so it is not surprising that the authorities reacted to the situation with the utmost severity. And this circumstance gave rise to a second problem: Anti-Coronavirus protests broke out in China.

At the moment, it is difficult to talk about the prospects of the protest movement. In most cases, people are protesting against the "zero Covid" policy, which, in their opinion, does not bring results, but hits hard on the pocket. However, in some cases, demands for the resignation of Chinese leader Xi Jinping are also heard among the demonstrators. In any case, these protests are already considered the largest in China for the last 33 years, since the 1989 protests (the events on Tiananmen Square).

Judging by the dynamics of the dollar index, traders are wary of the unfolding events. The situation is, in a sense, a stalemate: on one side of the coin - possible turbulence in the markets due to the protests, on the other side of the coin - negative consequences from large-scale lockdowns in major cities of China.

Thus, the current fundamental background is clearly not favorable for the euro's upward movement (first of all, if we speak about a stable development, but not an impulsive breakthrough). Therefore, it is better to either take a wait-and-see position or consider short positions. The main bearish target is still at 1.0210 (the middle line of the indicator Bollinger Bands on the daily chart). Crossing this target will pave the way for the bears to reach the parity level.
 

[KostiaForexMart]

Will gold fall for the Fed's entreaties?

The external calm often hides internal tension. Despite gold's stabilization near $1,750 an ounce, we can't say the periods of turbulent XAUUSD quotes are far behind. The precious metal paused ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech and is trying to see if he can do what the other FOMC members failed to do. Can he use hawkish rhetoric to persuade stock indices to fall and the U.S. dollar to strengthen? Both are fundamentally important to gold.

As a rule, when evaluating the prospects for XAUUSD, the dynamics of the USD index and Treasury bond yields are analyzed. The fall of the first of them below 106, according to DeCarley Trading, will contribute to the continuation of the peak to 98, raising the quotes of the precious metal significantly higher. Many factors have already been factored into the U.S. dollar, including a 5–5.25% federal funds rate ceiling and a shallow recession that the U.S. economy will plunge into in the second and fourth quarters of 2023, according to Barclays.

Dynamics of gold and US dollar

At the same time, capital flows also affect the value of gold. Queen Anne's Gate Capital says the current rally in XAUUSD is due to an outflow of money from the crypto market. In 2020, investors actively invested in ETFs and crypto assets. As a result, specialized exchange-traded funds grew from 80 million ounces to 110 million ounces. By now, they have fallen to 95 million ounces. Many are still under water, that is, in losses. They will take advantage of the rise in gold to close their positions. If ETFs shrink another 20 million ounces, the precious metal will plummet to $1,300.

The collapse of cryptocurrency broker FTX accelerated the collapse of BTCUSD, and money poured into gold, but a stabilization of bitcoin will reverse that process.

Gold and Bitcoin Dynamics

However, if the capital outflow from specialized exchange-traded funds stops and the demand for physical assets in Asia starts to fall, the downward trend of XAUUSD can be considered broken not only technically but also fundamentally. The fact is that, in an upward trend, gold tends to flow from the East to the West and vice versa during downturns—from China and India to the USA and Europe.

In this regard, a sharp drop in October imports of China's precious metal from Hong Kong to 18.7 tons, which is 45% less than in September, indicates a decrease in demand. However, Commerzbank believes that the dynamics of the indicator was affected by restrictions imposed by Beijing due to COVID-19. According to customs data from Switzerland, gold exports to China in October decreased slightly from 44 to 43.7 tons.

In the near term, the fate of XAUUSD will be affected by Powell's speech and the U.S. labor market report for November.

In technical terms, the 1-2-3 pattern can work out on the daily chart of the precious metal. However, for this, quotes must fall below $1,725, which will be a reason for selling. A fair price break of $1,762 per ounce is more likely to be a reason to buy.

[KostiaForexMart]

USD/JPY: that's it, no movie!

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish speech pulled down the dollar. Yesterday, the U.S. currency experienced a resounding sell-off on all fronts, but saw the biggest loss against the yen.

A crushing blow from Powell
At the middle of the week, Powell spoke about the economic outlook, inflation and US employment at the Brookings Institution.

It was Powell's first public speech since the November FOMC meeting, so traders were looking forward to his comments on the central bank's future course.

The market has been in a state of strong uncertainty. Softer inflation provoked speculations about a possible slowdown of tightening in the US, and recent hawkish comments made by Fed representatives have cast doubts on this.

Until yesterday, dollar bulls had illusions about further sharp rate hikes in the US. However, Powell just shattered their hopes: the central bank intends to slow down.

He said it makes sense to 'moderate' the pace at this stage to balance risks. He also hinted that the Fed might take less aggressive steps at its next meeting.

After Powell's dovish rhetoric, the likelihood of a 50 bps rate hike in December rose from 69.9% to more than 90%.

The sharp weakening of hawkish market expectations took a heavy toll on the dollar. It interrupted its 3-day climb and went into free-fall.

Yesterday, the DXY index posted its biggest daily loss of the week, falling more than 1% from its major peers.

Goodbye USD/JPY
The U.S. currency showed the worst dynamics on Wednesday against the yen. The USD/JPY plummeted 1.2%, testing the 3-month low at 136.50 in one moment.

A steep peak in yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries contributed to the yen's sharp growth. The index fell to a one-month low of 3.6% after Powell's comments.

"The dollar is losing more altitude as the market embraces a less hawkish than feared message from the Chair," said Rodrigo Catril, strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney. The "big decline in 10-year Treasury yields sees the yen at the top of the leaderboard."

Recall that this year the Japanese currency suffered the most from the aggressive Fed rate, and the Bank of Japan's dovish policy adds more pressure on it.

The BOJ is the only major central bank that has never raised interest rates this year.

The hope that appeared last month that the Fed might soon slow down the pace of tightening helped the yen recover from its multi-year lows.

The JPY showed the best uptrend against the dollar in November. It strengthened by more than 7%. This is the biggest monthly gain for the JPY in 14 years.

Now, when Powell actually gave the signal to start a slowdown in interest rates in the U.S., many analysts have revised their forecasts for the pair - downward.

According to experts, the asset has already exhausted its bullish potential and is unlikely to return to spectacular and confident growth in the near future.

In the short term, the major will move mainly downwards, still weighed down by Powell's dovish statement.

Also, US economic data may become a headwind for the dollar-yen pair. If the market sees another symptom of the approaching recession, it will finally convince traders that the US central bank will hit the brakes this month.

Analysts predict this is likely to happen. The ISM manufacturing activity index for November will be released today. Economists are predicting that the index will fall from 50.2 to 49.8.

Another headwind for the dollar will be the return of risk sentiment to the market due to the easing of anti-Covid measures in China. This should also favor USD/JPY bears.

[KostiaForexMart]

EUR/USD. All eyes on Nonfarm

Traders are focused on today's NonFarm Payrolls report. Key US labor market growth data is especially important right now in light of recent events. If the data lets the dollar bulls down as well (in addition to the PCE and ISM manufacturing index), the greenback will bear significant pressure in all major pairs. Also, keep in mind that the NonFarm Payrolls will be released less than two weeks before the Federal Reserve's December meeting. The last speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was not beneficial for the dollar (in my opinion - undeservedly), while a disappointing labor market report will only add fuel to the fire. In that case, the EUR/USD bulls, in particular, can already think about conquering the 6 figure in the medium term.

In general, recent events are not unfolding in favor of the U.S. currency. And it is not only because of objective circumstances. For example, the market reacted quite adequately to the decline of the ISM manufacturing index, which collapsed to 49 points, reaching its lowest value since May 2020. Traders also reacted fairly to the slowdown in the core PCE index, although this slowdown was minimal (and predictable).

No complaints here, as they say. At the same time, in my opinion, market participants are interpreting too many fundamental factors against the greenback - even in those cases where there is a less favorable aspect of the issue. For example, Powell said during his last speech that the time to reduce the pace of rate hikes "may come as soon as the December meeting." At the same time, he said that the final level of the federal funds rate will likely be higher than the September forecasts. It is noteworthy that Powell had previously voiced both theses, and each time the market reacted differently to his words.

Lately, the fundamental environment has not been in favor of the greenback: traders are keenly reacting to negative information for the dollar and are quite skeptical to positive (hawkish) signals. A vivid example of this is the market's reaction to Powell's speech: market participants went with the dovish messages and chose to ignore the statement that the final rate will be at a higher level.

All this suggests that today's Nonfarm data will also be treated in a "special" manner. In my opinion, the data can only support the dollar if all components of the report come out in the green. Otherwise it will be interpreted against the greenback.

Let me remind you that dollar bulls were not impressed by the last (October) Nonfarm data. Specifically, the unemployment rate climbed to 3.7% (from the previous value of 3.5%) and the average hourly wage growth rate slowed on an annualized basis to 4.7%, whereas it has been consistently above or in line with the 5% level since January. The share of the economically active population in October slightly decreased, but still, to 62.2%. All of the aforementioned indicators came out in the red, much to the disappointment of supporters of the strong dollar. After this report, the odds of a 75-point rate hike at the December meeting dropped to 20% (according to the CME FedWatch Tool). Accordingly, the 50-point scenario became the base case, with an 80% chance of being realized.

According to general forecasts, the number of employed people should increase by 200,000 in November. The unemployment rate is likely to remain unchanged at 3.7%. The annualized growth rate of average hourly earnings may slow to 4.5%.

In my opinion, the dollar will get no support even if all components of the release come out at projected levels. At the same time, there is definitely an implication that the numbers may not reach the forecasts at all. The alarm bells have already rung on this subject: The day before yesterday, the ADP released a disappointing report which showed an increase of 127,000 new jobs in the non-farm payrolls, contrary to its forecast of 200,000.

However, we have to admit that the ADP numbers do not always correlate with the official numbers, so there is still intrigue here.

At the moment, it is advisable to take a wait-and-see attitude towards all dollar pairs, and EUR/USD is not an exception here. The Nonfarm data will probably not be able to change the situation: as mentioned before, the fundamental situation is not in favor of the dollar. Nevertheless, opening long positions ahead of such an important release is a very risky action. Taking into account the "Friday factor", it is an unreasonable risk, especially since the pair is in the area of 5-month highs.

[KostiaForexMart]

EUR/USD regains upside position, dollar left with one trump card

Markets prefer to shoot first and then think later. Otherwise, they would miss the moment. When ECB President Christine Lagarde said that central banks should pursue policies that would anchor inflation expectations, investors began to buy the euro with renewed vigor, pushing EURUSD quotes to the highest levels since June. In reality, however, Lagarde's phrase does not guarantee that the deposit rate will rise by 75 bps in December. No matter how this shot turned out to be a blank.

The logic of investors selling the U.S. dollar is clear: inflation is slowing and will continue to do so, which means the Fed does not need to take giant steps down the road of tightening monetary policy. The factor of an aggressive federal funds rate hike, along with U.S. exceptionalism and high demand for safe haven assets, was the key driver of the EURUSD rally. If the ECB starts to catch up with the Fed, the dollar has one less trump card to play.

Lately, the macrostatistics of the euro area has been pleasantly surprising, which is reflected in the growth of the index of economic surprises. It is quite possible that the currency bloc will either manage to avoid recession or the recession will be quick and insignificant. It looks like the U.S. is not as far from the eurozone as previously thought. A change in investors' outlook on the matter has given EURUSD a helping hand.

Dynamics of Economic Surprise Indices

In fact, the U.S. dollar has only one trump card left—its status as a safe-haven asset, and even that fails. When the yield of Treasury bonds grew, the competitors of the grenback in the face of gold, yen and franc were in disgrace. However, the decline in interest rates on debt has turned them from outsiders into favorites. As a global recession approaches, investors will no longer park their money in North America, but will prefer Japan, Switzerland, or a perpetual asset.

Jerome Powell had a chance to turn things around. Had he voiced his dissatisfaction with financial conditions, the EURUSD pair would hardly have been able to soar above 1.05. The weakening of the latter makes it difficult for the Fed to fight inflation, but the central bank also seems to believe that the PCE will continue to slow.

Dynamics of financial conditions in the USA

Unlike Lagarde, who believes that the global economy is entering an era of volatile inflation. That is why central banks should anchor inflation expectations at the target level of 2%. Households must trust that their work will lead to price stability. That's the only way to win.

Volatile inflation makes it doubtful that EURUSD will continue to go further upward in the same way as in October and early December. Most likely, it will be stormy.

In technical terms, the euro approached the target by 161.8% by the Crab pattern within an arm's length. It is located near the $1.061 mark. A rebound may follow from it or from the 1.057 pivot point, which will allow to partially take profits on the longs formed above 1.0395. Subsequently, we use pullbacks to buy EURUSD.
 

[KostiaForexMart]

USD unlikely to start long-term rally

The US dollar managed to settle at the current highs thanks to upbeat US macro stats. The euro. on the contrary, dived down. Nevertheless, analysts believe that the greenback will hardly will be able to start a long-term rally even though it has risen significantly in the short term.

On December 5, the greenback grew markedly against the euro amid positive reports on the US PMI Indices. In November, the ISM Services Index increased to 56.5% from October 54.4%. The reading surpassed forecasts as economists had anticipated a decline to 53.3%.

Unexpectedly strong macroeconomic reports helped the greenback regain momentum. On December 6, the uptrend continued but it was not as strong as the day before. The dynamic of the US currency is relatively calm as the economic calendar is empty. At the same time, the EUR/USD pair was trading at 1.0487, trying to consolidate at the recent highs.

In October, factory and durable goods orders also exceeded forecasts. Market participants were surprised by a sharp increase in the ISM Services Index. According to economists, it signals a rise in inflationary pressure in the service sector although some signs of disinflation have already been seen in the commodity sector.

Analysts at the St. Louis Fed point out that current inflation expectations in the United States somewhat reflect the effectiveness of the Fed's hawkish stance. They are mainly fueled by geopolitical woes and strong US macro stats. They also note that there may be a lull on Forex. Only on December 6, the US trade balance report is due. According to preliminary estimates, the trade deficit is expected to grow to $80 billion from the previous $73.3 billion.

Next week, several central banks will hold their monetary policy meetings. Investors are curious to find out the size of the rate increase. The Fed is expected to hike the interest rate by 50 basis points, up to 4.25%-4.5% at the December meeting. There is also a chance that the Fed could take a pause in monetary tightening. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell admitted that "slowing down at this point is a good way to balance the risks." Yet, he added that the watchdog would keep raising rates as "restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time."

Against this background, a slight decline in the US currency is possible. Last month, the greenback noticeably weakened. However, it will hardly start a downtrend in the near term. A downward reversal could take place after a period of high volatility, analysts at MFK Bank pinpointed. They reckon that the US dollar could remain volatile in the next three to four months. By the end of 2023, it may drop significantly. At the same time, they see no reason for a prolonged decline of the greenback although it is unable to start a steady correction due to current economic conditions.

The US currency may lose ground if the Fed takes a less hawkish stance. However, if the Fed remains strongly committed to aggressive tightening, it will boost a long-term rally of the US currency. Hence, It will recover next year.
 

[KostiaForexMart]

Will the dollar still be at war? USD/JPY forecast for 2023

The USD/JPY pair plummeted in November, which made many question its bullish potential. However, the dollar's recent growth convinces investors otherwise. So what to expect from the major?

The dollar is winning so far
The greenback rose 0.3% against its major peers on Wednesday night. The dollar was supported by rising concerns about the global recession.

The day before, three leading U.S. banks - J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs and The Bank of America - said they expect a slowdown in global economic growth next year, as rising inflation is threatening consumer demand.

The pessimistic outlook reinforced the anti-risk sentiment that prevailed for the third consecutive session. The MSCI All-Country World Index, which tracks stock market performance in 48 countries, fell 1.26%, down from a three-month high last week.

The loss of appetite for equities and increased demand for the dollar was also triggered by strong US macrodata. Recall that earlier this week the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said that economic activity in the services sector grew from 54.4 to 56.5 in November.

The data followed Friday's report from the U.S. labor market, which also pleased dollar bulls. The nation's NonFarm Payroll employment rose more than forecast last month.

The portion of optimistic data greatly strengthened the market's hawkish expectations for further monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.

Currently, most traders expect the U.S. central bank to raise the rate by 50 bps next week. The probability of an increase by 75 bps is only 5%.

However, talk of a higher peak in U.S. interest rates has returned to the market. Many investors believe the rate could reach 5.25% in 2023, whereas now it is in the 3.75-4% range.

The hope that the Fed will continue to raise rates next year and keep them high for a long time acts as a very powerful trigger for the dollar at this point. This factor particularly helps the greenback against the yen.

After USD/JPY plummeted to a 3-month low of 133.64 last week, it has now gained 3% and has managed to stay above 137.

There aren't many new factors that can strongly influence the asset's dynamics now. In the coming days, investors will focus on two events: the US consumer price index for November and next week's Fed meeting.

If investors see more robust inflation and hear hints of a higher peak in U.S. interest rates from U.S. officials, it will likely trigger a new wave of growth in the USD/JPY pair.

What's in store for the USD/JPY next year?
In November, the U.S. currency posted its worst monthly performance in 14 years against the yen. It fell by more than 7% due to fears that the US central bank is going to slow the pace of rate hikes.

However, most currency strategists, recently surveyed by Reuters, believe that in the next few months, USD/JPY will be able to hold its annual growth, which amounted to 20%.

The growing threat of recession in the U.S. and other countries should provide support to the dollar. In the backdrop of risk aversion, the greenback will once again feel a surge of strength, which will help it recover its recent losses on all fronts, even against the yen.

"For now, the forces that have supported the USD this year remain valid, despite the recent correction lower. Other currencies do not look as attractive yet," said Athanasios Vamvakidis, head of G10 FX strategy at Bank of America.

In the BofA baseline, the U.S. dollar will remain strong early next year and will only start a more sustained downward path after the Fed pauses.

Despite the dollar's recent pullback, major currencies are not expected to recoup their 2022 losses against the USD until at least late 2023, the survey showed.

Analysts estimate that the Japanese yen, down nearly 20% for the year and currently trading around 136.50 per dollar, was expected to change hands around 139.17, 136.17 and 132.67 per dollar over the next three, six and 12 months respectively.

[KostiaForexMart]

EUR/USD. The Fed to set the stage for longer drop in USD in 2023

The euro seems to leave its lows behind. What does the EU currency await next year?

In 2022, the energy crisis affected the EUR/USD pair significantly. It triggered the strongest collapse of the European currency. According to analysts, the peak of fears about the energy crisis in the eurozone has passed. There are reasons for optimism now.

"Outside of an unseasonably harsh winter, the energy situation in Europe looks manageable given the securing of alternative energy supplies and double-digit energy demand erosion. The drawdown of critical stocks is already progressing better than feared," NatWest reported.

The key factor for the euro/dollar pair exchange rate should continue to be seen primarily through the lens of the balance of payments and terms of trade shift driven by energy prices.

The trade deficit has worsened this year. The cost of energy imports skyrocketed after Russia cut gas exports to the region. As a result, the region's current account became deficit for the first time in years.

NatWest economists expect the euro area's new trade deficit to be counterbalanced by positive net capital flows.

"There is potential for earnings and holdings to be repatriated if the USD strengthens further," the experts noted.

However, winter has just started and it is too early to make any conclusions. If temperatures in Europe fall below critical levels, investors may focus on the supply problem again.

In December, a sharp cold snap is expected in the region, which could lead to a noticeable increase in consumption.

"The winter may turn out to be colder than average, but it's impossible to have that as a base case. Yet valuations appear to include an unrealistically high probability of such a risk case," NatWest added.

It is unlikely that cyclical lows in the EUR/USD pair will be revised next year. Its decline should also be limited to a rebalancing of central bank reserves. The rebalancing should occur to the detriment of the greenback and to the benefit of currencies such as the euro.

This could mean that market players will have to sell USD to buy other currencies in their reserves every time the US currency rallies.

The downtrend for the dollar is inevitable, it is a question of timing. In the coming months, its exchange rate is expected to fall as the peak of the Fed's rate hikes is reached.

NatWest's forecasts for the euro/dollar pair are relatively contained. At the end of the first quarter, the quote should remain below 1.0500, and it should grow up to 1.0600 by the end of the second quarter. At the end of the third quarter, it is projected to rise to 1.0700 and 1.0800 by year-end.

Short-term outlook

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair attempted to stabilize above 1.0500. The technical picture suggests that buyers maintain control over the market in the short term.

On Thursday, markets expect the weekly US labor market data. Traders are likely to ignore this report. This means that the EUR/USD pair's direction will be driven by the market sentiment with regard to risk.

The growth of the major US indices will hinder the upward trend of the US dollar, which will help the EUR/USD pair to rise. A negative shift in sentiment will have the opposite effect on the quote.

The list of events for the euro includes a speech by ECB head Christine Lagarde at a virtual conference. However, we should not expect any important statements on the prospects of rates, as the ECB is in silent mode ahead of next week's monetary policy meeting.

Thus, risk appetite will have a huge importance for the short-term outlook.

The intermediate resistance level is at 1.0540, further - 1.0580, and 1.0600. The bearish scenario should be considered after the price breaks through 1.0500. Following this scenario, the euro may fall to the area of 1.0460 and 1.0430.

Bulls need to protect the level of 1.0450 to prevent the bearish scenario.

Since no fundamentally important events are expected in the short term, investors are again focused on recession risks. This now helps keep the greenback from falling.

On Thursday, the US dollar index fixed above 105.00, continuing to rise this week and benefiting from risk aversion in the market. Support was also provided by speculation that the Fed will continue to raise rates and hold them higher longer after the release of unexpectedly strong US employment, services, and manufacturing data.

Now traders are waiting for data on CPI in the US to be released next week, as well as the Fed meeting, where a more moderate rate hike of 50 bps is expected.

In general, the US dollar looks oversold, it has experienced its strongest monthly drop since 2009. A correction is possible in the coming weeks. However, it will resume its decline next year. Prerequisites for a longer fall in the exchange rate may be created by the Fed.

[KostiaForexMart]

Weekly forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, and GOLD from December 12 (simplified wave analysis)

EUR/USD

Analysis:

The September 26 incomplete wave algorithm determines the short-term trend of the major European currencies. The movement's overall level has now surpassed the D1 scale. After its breakout, the intermediate resistance became support. The quotes have been forming an imperfect interim correction over the past week.

Forecast:

The general sideways trend of euro price fluctuations is anticipated to continue in the early days of this week. Its second half is more likely to see an increase in volatility, a reversal, and a continuation of the price rise.

Potential zones for reversals

Resistance:

- 1.0760/1.0810

Support:

- 1.0450/1.0400

Recommendations:

Sales: are potentially unprofitable and have limited potential.

Purchases: Your vehicles may be suggested for trading transactions once the corresponding signals for those vehicles appear in the support zone.

USD/JPY

Analysis:

The imperfect algorithm of the descending stretched plane of the major pair of the Japanese yen determines the primary direction of intraday trends. The wave has reached its peak. The price breached a strong support level that had previously served as resistance.

Forecast:

The price of the pair anticipate mainly moving "sideways" along the predicted resistance over the coming few days. You can anticipate a reversal and a continuation of the bearish course closer to the weekend. The calculated support represents the lower bound of the expected weekly entry of the pair.

Potential zones for reversals

Resistance:

- 137.50/138.00

Support:

- 133.60/133.10

Recommendations:

Purchases may be made during different sessions. It is advised to purchase a fractional lot due to the low potential.

Sales: this will only be important once your vehicle's corresponding reversing signals appear in the resistance zone area.

GBP/JPY

Analysis:

Since the end of September, the waves on the pair's chart between the British pound and the Japanese yen have been descending. The wave structure is still undergoing correction as a horizontal plane forms. There aren't any completion signals at the time of analysis.

Forecast:

The general lateral mood of the pair's fluctuations is anticipated to persist this week. When there is likely pressure on the resistance zone, you can watch for a change in course. Most likely, the decline stops at the calculated support.

Potential zones for reversals

Resistance:

- 168.60/169.10

Support:

- 164.00/163.50

Recommendations:

Small-lot purchases are possible during a single day. Lowering the trading lot is safer.

Sales: are available following the occurrence of verified reversal signals in the vicinity of the resistance zone.

USD/CAD

Analysis:

The Canadian dollar chart's most recent wave structure, which is useful for forecasting and trading, is directed downward and has been decrementing since September 26. In its structure, the middle part (B) is formed. After it is finished, part (C) will come next, bringing the wave's overall wave scale to the level of the reversal.

Forecast:

The upward movement is anticipated to continue at the start of this week, up to the limits of the calculated resistance. When a reversal forms and the downward course resumes, you can wait for it to happen.

Potential zones for reversals

Resistance:

- 1.3740/1.3790

Support:

- 1.3190/1.3140

Recommendations:

Purchases: are highly risky and could end up being unprofitable.

After the emergence of reversal signals in the vicinity of the resistance zone, sales may be advised.

NZD/USD

Short analysis

Since the end of September, an upward trend has been forming on the chart of the major New Zealand dollar pair. The price has reached a strong potential reversal zone over a broad timeframe. The wave structure's analysis suggests that quotations could increase to their maximum level.

Forecast for the coming week:

The likelihood of a sideways flat at the start of the upcoming week is very high. The price could move downward, but only as far as the support boundaries allow. The second half of the week should see the most activity and the start of price growth again.

Potential zones for reversals

Resistance:

- 0.6500/0.6550

Support:

- 0.6350/0.6300

Recommendations

Sales in the vicinity of the resistance zone should only be made once confirmed reversal signals have appeared.

Purchases: advised by a cut-down quantity from the support zone. The resistance zone restricts the potential.

GOLD

Analysis:

A downward wave has been driving the trend in the gold market since March of this year. Gold prices have been correcting over the previous two months, forming the middle of the wave. The price is close to a significant resistance area at the time of analysis. The ascending section's structure needs to be completed.

Forecast:

The upward movement vector is anticipated to carry on this coming week until the resistance zone rise is fully completed. A brief decline in the support area is not ruled out over the next few days.

Potential zones for reversals

Resistance:

- 1830.0/1845.0

Support:

- 1785.0/1770.0

Recommendations:

There won't be any restrictions on sales in the upcoming days.

Purchases: Within the parameters of individual trading sessions, fractional lots may be purchased from the support zone.

Reasons: Each wave has three components in a simplified wave analysis (UVA). The final, incomplete wave is examined at each TF. The dotted line depicts the predicted movements.

Be aware that the wave algorithm needs to account for the instruments' temporal movement length!

[KostiaForexMart]

USD/JPY badly hurt by inflation, waiting for a counter shot from the Fed chair

Yesterday was a black Tuesday for the dollar. A cooler than expected US inflation report sent the greenback into free-fall in all directions. The biggest losses were sustained by USD/JPY.

Just like last month, U.S. inflation gave traders a shocking surprise. The consumer price index increased by only 7.1% from a year ago. That was less than economists' preliminary estimate of 7.3% and the previous value of 7.7%.

The so-called core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also turned out to be softer. It rose 6% on an annual basis against a forecast of 6.1% and an increase of 6.3% in October.

The significant reduction in inflationary pressures eased the market's hawkish expectations about the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy.

Following this data, the dollar collapsed on all fronts. Yesterday, the DXY index plummeted about 0.9% to 104.02.

The USD/JPY pair showed the worst dynamics, as the yen jumped, boosted by a rally in Treasuries. US bond yields sank with the US 10-year falling from 3.60% to 3.43%.

In this backdrop, the major collapsed by more than 250 points, or 1.5%. Tuesday's low was the lowest of the week at 134.67.

Such a sharp decline in USD/JPY significantly damaged the outlook for the dollar. The price is back under the area of the 200-day Simple Moving Average, which indicates a clear technical advantage of the bears.

A break under 134.60 would expose the next support around 134.10. Below attention would turn to the monthly low at133.60.

According to analysts at Rabobank, by the end of the week, the USD/JPY risks falling even lower, if the bears stay the course. The downtrend may get support from today's Fed monetary policy meeting.

If the Fed's stance turns out to be more dovish, there is a high probability that the USD/JPY pair will test the level of 130.00 even before the weekend. It has not been uncommon for the yen to fly 500 pips in a week, experts said.

Eyes now turn to the Fed meeting with investors particularly interested in the press-conference of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Investors have already fully taken into account the possible slowdown in rate hikes in the U.S. Now most market participants expect that the rate will be raised not by 75 bps, but only by half a percentage point.

If the forecast comes true, it probably won't put much pressure on the dollar. What could really bring down the U.S. currency is the Fed's hint at lower interest rates.

In light of the latest U.S. inflation data, traders have revised their forecast for peak interest rates downward.

At this point, the rate is expected to rise to 4.8% next year, after which the U.S. central bank will wind down its anti-inflation campaign.

The lower end rates also suggest a less drastic tightening. Many traders are now inclined to expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 bps in February and March.

Such a scenario is extremely unfavorable for USD/JPY, which rose to 30-year highs this year due to a strong interest rate differential between the Fed and the Bank of Japan.

Now that there is hope for a less aggressive rate of the U.S. central bank, the yen might regain its lost ground.

However, let's not bury the dollar just yet. Its fate is now completely in the hands of Powell. Many analysts believe that Powell will try to convince investors that the current slowdown does not mean a dovish pivot.

Most likely, the Fed chief's main argument for further tightening will be the fact that inflation is still very high. It is now running three times higher than the central bank's target level.

Earlier, Powell repeatedly stressed that officials won't prematurely end their assault against inflation until the consumer price index returns to 2%.

If he succeeds in strengthening the hawkish expectations of the market, the dollar may gain support and consolidate in tandem with the yen in the short term.

[KostiaForexMart]

EUR likely to recover

This week, the euro has been extremely volatile. After a sharp rise amid the weakening of the US dollar, it rolled back again. However, there is still a chance for recovery.

On Thursday morning, the European currency noticeably declined against the US dollar. Traders are now looking forward to the ECB meeting. The central bank will announce its rate decision as well as provide comments on the likelihood of a recession. Analysts believe that the euro could take advantage of the situation and resume an upward movement. Currently, the EUR/USD pair is trading near 1.0655, trying to reach new highs.

The euro has a high upside potential because the greenback is climbing solely thanks to the Fed's hawkish rhetoric. However, this bullish momentum may weaken at any moment. According to Credit Suisse, by the end of 2022, the EUR/USD pair is projected to test the May high of 1.0800.

As the New Year and Christmas holidays are approaching, many analysts have once again brought up the topic of the parity level. Opinions are polarized. Many FX strategists do not expect the pair to retreat to this level, while others believe that the odds are extremely high. Economists at Rabobank reckon that the EUR/USD pair is likely to reach parity in 2023.

Now, speculators are digesting the results of the Fed meeting. The central bank raised the interest rate by 50 basis points to 4.25%-4.5% on an annual basis. The fed funds rate is expected to peak at 4.75%-5.00% next year. Fed officials confirmed that they would stick to further tightening to tame inflation.

The so-called dot plots show that Fed policymakers have a median forecast of 5.1% for the fed funds rate at the end of 2023. The watchdog also said it would not plan to cut the key rate over the next year. The Fed also expects its rate to come down by the end of 2024 to 4.1% and to 3.1% by the end of 2025.

Apart from that, the Fed will continue to reduce its balance sheet. It announced this move in May of this year and started to trim its balance sheet in June. Currently, the Fed's assets stand at $8.6 trillion.

Now, the central bank's main priority is to cap inflation, pushing it to the 2% target. Inflation is still high although it is gradually decreasing. The Fed sees inflation risks 'weighted to the upside'. For this reason, it will stick to a hawkish stance until inflation declines to the target level.

Later, the ECB will announce its rate decision. According to preliminary forecasts, the ECB is projected to hike the key rate by 50 basis points, taking it to 2.5%. Earlier, the ECB raised the rate by 75 basis points. In addition, it will also unveil its macroeconomic projections.

Analysts at Credit Suisse contemplate that a 50 basis point rate hike could adversely affect the euro. However, it will hardly undermine the bullish trend. It might occur only if Christine Lagarde provides rather dovish comments on the future plans for monetary policy and the final range for the key rate. Such a scenario looks unlikely, Credit Suisse pointed out. However, persistently high inflation and rising wages increase the chance of a 75 basis point rate hike. If so, the euro will definitely rise.
 

[KostiaForexMart]

EUR/USD. Analysis for December 27, 2022

The euro/dollar instrument's 4-hour chart still shows a convincing wave marking, and the entire upward section of the trend is still very complex. It now has a clear corrective and lengthened form. The waves a-b-c-d-e have been combined into a complex correction structure, with wave e having a form that is significantly more complex than the other waves. Since the peak of wave e is much higher than the peak of wave C, if the current wave layout is accurate, construction on this structure may be nearly finished or may already be finished. In this scenario, we must construct at least three waves. In any case, I'm getting ready to lower the instrument. The market has demonstrated to everyone this year that it would rather wait and rest than actively work, so it may start as early as next year. The market is prepared to sell when an attempt to surpass the 1.0726 level, which corresponds to 200.0% Fibonacci, fails. Despite what might seem to be everything needed for it, the demand for US currency is still not increasing. The wave e's internal wave structure is extremely ambiguous, making it challenging to identify sub-waves.

A depressing start to the new week.

On Monday, the euro/dollar instrument increased by 20 basis points. Please note that these statistics are highly conditional, so readers should not draw any conclusions from them. The opening and closing levels of the day rarely fall on the same level. Therefore, even if there is no movement at all, one of the currencies will still rise or fall at least slightly at the end of the day. In contrast, there are currently no movements, amplitudes, or market participants.

Due to the fact that many nations celebrated Christmas on Monday, the volume of trade and subsequent movements were negatively impacted. There were no changes from yesterday when it was possible to completely avoid opening the trading terminal. The wave marking hasn't changed in over a week. No news context is provided. I still anticipate a decline in quotes based on the current wave markup because I think the upward trend section is finished. The markets will be ready to increase demand for the euro currency if an attempt to break the 200.0% Fibonacci mark is successful. Many analysts discussed the potential movements of the instrument in January 2023 in the final days of the previous year, and the majority of them agreed that the US currency should start to strengthen. I concur with this viewpoint in light of the wave analysis. You must wait because there have been no movements at all thus far. Maybe just until the holidays are over, or maybe it will be much longer. I don't believe the market will start operating actively on January 1 right away. Nearer to the middle of next month, active work is most likely to be seen.

Conclusions in general
I draw the conclusion from the analysis that the upward trend section's construction has grown more intricate and is almost finished. As a result, I suggest making sales with targets close to the estimated 0.9994 level, or 323.6% Fibonacci. Although there is a chance that the upward portion of the trend will become even more extended and complicated, and the likelihood that this will happen is still high, at least we now have a signal for a decline from which we can start.

The wave marking of the descending trend segment noticeably becomes more intricate and lengthens at the higher wave scale. The a-b-c-d-e structure is most likely represented by the five upward waves we observed. After the construction of this section is complete, work on a downward trend section can start.