Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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American stock market rose, Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices renewed records after statistics

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 14.88 points (0.04%) to a record 35,499.85 points. Standard & Poor's 500 gained 13.13 points (0.3%), rising to a record 4460.83 points. The Nasdaq Composite added 51.13 points (0.35%) to 14,816.26 points.

EBay Inc. yesterday rose 1.3%. The world's largest online auction in the second quarter of this year received profit and revenue above analysts' expectations, but reported a decrease in the number of active buyers, while the revenue forecast for the current quarter did not meet the expectations of experts.

The price of securities of the American Palantir Technologies Inc. jumped 11.4%. The big data solution provider increased its revenue by 49% in the second quarter of 2021, thanks to a significant increase in revenue from commercial orders in the United States.

Nio Inc. shares quoted in the USA. decreased by 3.4%. The Chinese electric vehicle maker cut its net loss by 45.4% in the second quarter, while the adjusted figure was better than forecast.

Investors are studying the statistics, trying to understand how they will affect the plans of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) to roll back asset repurchases.

In recent months, representatives of the Federal Reserve are increasingly speaking out in favor of the regulator beginning to roll back stimulus measures introduced to support the economy amid the coronavirus pandemic.

The US Central Bank may begin to roll back stimulus measures for the US economy by the end of this year, given the strength of the economic recovery, said the head of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of San Francisco, Mary Daly.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Daily expressed confidence that the significant growth in economic activity of households and businesses will continue as people return to jobs and persist in high consumer spending, which will create conditions for adjusting monetary policy in the coming months.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on August 16, 2021

USD/JPY

Unfortunately, the USD/JPY pair could not withstand external pressure and fell by almost 80 points on Friday as restrictive stops below 110.10 were triggered.

It passed the 109.80 target level and the 109.20 target is open. New stop losses are likely to accumulate below this level, and big players may be tempted to repeat Friday's success and push the price down to 108.35. And here the question arises - do the big players need it? The answer may be in the affirmative if the majority of investors expect an imminent collapse in the stock markets. But so far there is no such unequivocal sentiment in the business media. If investors still expect growth in the medium term (and companies' financial statements are good), then the pair may not reach the 109.20 target level to maintain market calm. Or the price will go down very slowly to the target level.

Consolidating above the resistance at 109.80 will bring back the rising sentiment, the price will try to once again go above the price channel line (110.60).

The price settled below the target level of 109.80 on the four-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator outlined a reversal from the oversold zone. This could be an early sign of the dollar's intention to recover, or it could spend a few days in the 109.20/80 range.

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Where will gold end up?

The price of gold stopped just below $ 1,800 per ounce after Monday's growth. Now, some analysts are warning of a new sell-off if the level of $ 1800 turns out to be too strong resistance.

After a sudden collapse at the beginning of last week, gold managed to recover well, and demand for it returned.

Many people think about the geopolitical outbreak in Afghanistan after the Taliban seized the country after the recent withdrawal of American troops.

Therefore, everyone is waiting for the speech of the Central Bank Governor Jerome Powell on Wednesday.

Gold's movement to the level of $ 1,800 or higher will be important not only from a technical point of view but will also determine its future price direction.

Another multinational investment bank is urging investors to abandon gold, predicting stronger economic growth and an appreciation of the US dollar next year.

Dominic Schneider, Head of Commodities and Asia Pacific Foreign Exchange at UBS Global Wealth Management CIO Office, said that gold could decline to $ 1,600 per ounce, while silver could fall to $ 22 per ounce.

However, not all analysts hold this opinion.

Goldman Sachs still expects gold to hit $ 2,000 an ounce by the end of the year as demand for the yellow metal rebounds.

According to Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA Europe, there are currently several supporting factors for gold, including a combination of a weak US dollar and low bond yields.

Gold is also receiving additional price support from the growing demand of central banks for the precious metal, with Brazil and India being the latest to increase their official purchases of gold. This provided a counteraction to speculative pressure on the precious metal. In turn, gold prices recovered to the range of $ 1,780 per ounce, which could serve as a catalyst for additional coverage of short positions from trend followers.

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Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on August 18

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

Euro initially rose by 15 pips on Tuesday as traders managed to set up long positions, thanks to the signal to buy that appeared when the MACD line was at the oversold area.

Then, immediately after that, the price turned around and provoked a sell signal, but traders had to ignore it since the indicator was far from zero.

The reason why EUR / USD rose in the morning is the slight increase in EU employment levels. But by afternoon, the pair declined despite a sharp drop in US retail trade data. Euro even reached new local lows.

And today, a report on EU inflation will be released, which will most likely provoke another decline in the market provided that the figure comes out the same or worse as expected. Then, in the afternoon, the Fed will publish its minutes of the meeting, which many expect to contain similar clauses as the last discussions.

For long positions:

Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1732 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1772. EUR / USD will climb higher if the Euro area publishes a better than expected inflation report. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.1708 and 1.1670, but the MACD indicator line must be in the oversold area in order to bring about a market reversal to 1.1732 and 1.1772.

For short positions:

Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1708 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1670. A decline will occur in the event of poor data on UK inflation and strong Fed protocols. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

It is also possible to sell at 1.1732 and 1.1772, but the MACD line must be in the overbought area in order to provoke a market reversal to 1.1708.

Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

Pound fell by 25 pips yesterday as traders managed to set up short positions, thanks to the signal to sell that appeared when the MACD line was going down from zero. At the same time, there were no other market signals for the rest of the day.

The weak employment data that UK released was the main reason for the decline, followed by the US retail trade report and statements from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. And most likely, this bearish sentiment will continue amid inflation statistics from UK. But if the indicator turns out to be better than expected, there may be an upward correction in the market. Then, in the afternoon, the Fed will publish its minutes of the meeting, which many expect to contain similar clauses as the last discussions.

For long positions:

Open a long position when pound reaches 1.3764 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3812 (thicker green line on the chart). GBP / USD will trade higher if UK reports strong statistics on inflation. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.3731 and 1.3684, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area in order to set off a market reversal to 1.3764 and 1.3812.

For short positions:

Open a short position when pound reaches 1.3731 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3684. A decline will occur if UK publishes weak inflationary indicators. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

It is also possible to sell at 1.3764 and 1.3812, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area in order to trigger a market reversal to 1.3731 and 1.3684.

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Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on August 19

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

Euro rose by 20 pips on Wednesday as traders managed to set up long positions, thanks to the signal to buy that appeared when the MACD line was at the oversold area. But in the afternoon, demand for dollar increased, as the Fed protocol said the members are considering an early tapering in order to prevent the economy from overheating.

Today, there will be a report on the current account balance of ECB, which will not have a serious impact on the market if it does not diverge from the forecasts. Then, in the afternoon, US will release weekly data on jobless claims, which, if exceeds expectations, will put more pressure on EUR / USD.

For long positions:

Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1697 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1742. EUR / USD will climb higher if the Euro area publishes strong economic data. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.1665 and 1.1624, but the MACD indicator line must be in the oversold area in order to bring about a market reversal to 1.1697 and 1.1742.

For short positions:

Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1665 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1624. A decline will occur if the Euro area releases weak economic indicators and US publishes a strong labor market report. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

It is also possible to sell at 1.1697 and 1.1742, but the MACD line must be in the overbought area in order to provoke a market reversal to 1.1665.

Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

GBP / USD declined by 20 pips yesterday because traders took short positions amid a signal to sell in the market, which came after the pair became oversold. Earlier, the market signal was to buy, but pound did not grow even though the MACD line was moving up from zero.

The main reason for the slump was the weak data on UK inflation, followed by the Fed protocols that set off increased demand for dollar. Apparently, many members said the central bank may already cut measures in the coming months.

Today, there are no UK statistics scheduled to be released, so the market will most likely focus on the reports from US. If the figures on jobless claims turn out better than expected, pressure on EUR / USD will intensify.

For long positions:

Open a long position when pound reaches 1.3741 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3812 (thicker green line on the chart). But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.3700 and 1.3638, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area in order to set off a market reversal to 1.3741 and 1.3812.

For short positions:

Open a short position when pound reaches 1.3700 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3638. GBP / USD will decline further if US releases a strong labor market data. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

It is also possible to sell at 1.3741 and 1.3812, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area in order to trigger a market reversal to 1.3700 and 1.3638.

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Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on August 20

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

EUR / USD declined by 20 and then 30 pips on Thursday as traders managed to set up short positions, thanks to the signals to sell that appeared when the MACD line was at the overbought area. The driver was the stable decrease in weekly US jobless claims, which provoked increased demand for dollar.

Today, there will be a report on German PPI, but it is unlikely to help euro regain its lost positions. At most, the movement will be horizontal, unless dollar bulls close their positions this weekend.

For long positions:

Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1697 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1733. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.1675 and 1.1644, but the MACD indicator line must be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1697 and 1.1733.

For short positions:

Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1675 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1644. A decline will occur if Germany releases a weak economic report. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

It is also possible to sell at 1.1697 and 1.1742, but the MACD line must be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1675.

Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

GBP / USD continued to decline yesterday even though there was a signal to buy that coincided with the MACD line being at the oversold area. This resulted in huge losses, especially since there were no other market signals for the rest of the day.

The main reason for the slump was the continued decrease in weekly jobless claims. And today, this bearish sentiment may continue if the data on UK retail sales turn out bad. But in the afternoon, there may be a slight correction in the market, as dollar bulls may close their positions since it is already the end of the week.

For long positions:

Open a long position when pound reaches 1.3645 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3688 (thicker green line on the chart). But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.3618 and 1.3583, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3645 and 1.3688.

For short positions:

Open a short position when pound reaches 1.3618 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3583. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

It is also possible to sell at 1.3645 and 1.3688, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3618 and 1.3583.

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on August 23, 2021

The need for correction is not just long overdue, but has even already begun last Friday. However, the process is extremely slow. Nevertheless, there is no doubt that this is a corrective movement. The uncertainty of the single European currency is caused by business activity indices. The fact is that the preliminary assessment should show a decrease in all indices without exception. For example, the production index should fall from 62.8 points to 62.2 points. The index of business activity in the service sector may fall from 59.8 points to 59.4 points. So, the composite index should decrease from 60.2 points to 59.8 points. Thus, even a slight decline in the single European currency is quite possible during the European session. It will be small for the simple reason that the single European currency is already seriously oversold, which means that its downward movement is extremely limited.

However, this does not mean that the correction is postponed indefinitely. American statistics are much more important, and it is precisely with these data that things will be much worse today than in the eurozone. And we are talking about the same preliminary estimates of business activity indices. Thus, the manufacturing index may decrease from 63.4 points to 63.0 points, while the index of business activity in the service sector from 59.9 points to 59.0 points. As a result of all this, the composite index should decrease from 59.9 points to 59.0 points. And due to the fact that American statistics have much more weight, the market will react to it noticeably more actively. Plus, the dollar is clearly overbought. This will be the final reason for the correction.

After updating the local minimum of 2021, the EUR/USD pair slowed down its downward course. As a result, there was a corrective movement, which led to the return of the quote above the previously passed level of 1.1700.

The RSI technical indicator confirms the correction move by crossing the 50 level from the bottom up.

The daily trading chart shows a downward cycle from the beginning of June, the scale of which leads to a change of trading interests.

Expectations and prospects:

The corrective move returned the quote in the area of the Fibonacci line 23.6-1.1720, where the possibility of completing the existing movement is being considered. If there is no reduction in the volume of long positions in the area of this level, then the subsequent Fibo level is located around the 1.1760 mark.

A comprehensive indicator analysis gives a buy signal based on the short-term period. At the same time, the intraday and medium-term periods signal a sale.

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Trading Signal for XAU/USD for August 24 - 25, 2021

The daily chart of Gold shows that the metal is trading within a downtrend channel which has been extending since May 14. Now it would be close to start a trend change, but the price has triple resistance where the top of the channel, the 200 EMA and the 6/8 line of murray converge (1,812).

The gold market opened the week higher and XAU / USD rose from the level of 1,781, breaking the symmetrical triangle pattern (see the chart). Until the closure of the bullish candle on Monday at 1,804, this pattern could sustain momentum, so gold could rise to the zone of 1,812.

This bullish momentum of yesterday occurred due to the weakness of the USDX which fell from the high of 93.71 (8/8 of murray). This level was predicted by us as we had already indicated it in the previous analysis. Now we believe that the USDX could make a correction to the 61.8% of Fibonacci and it will enable a new bullish momentum of gold.

But first, gold should also make a technical correction, since it is showing overbought signs, facing extreme resistance at 1,812.

We believe that the zone between 1,812 and 1,806 represents strong resistance and gold could fall to the 5/8 murray line located at 1,781 because the 200 EMA is a strong barrier which could prevent a bullish rally.

On the contrary, if Gold breaks the key level of 1,812, the price will be free for a new bullish stage. So, the price could reach the area between 1,843 and 1,875, the level of 8/8 murray.

Our outlook for now remains bearish because we are confident in the price action patterns. We can also add the eagle indicator on 4-hour charts. As the indicator has reached the 95 level, this signals an imminent technical correction.

The reasonable trading idea is to sell at any level below 1,812 with targets at 1,781 and towards the pivot point of 4/8 Murray at 1,750. The eagle technical indicator, that measures the volume and the strength of the market, shows a signal of an imminent correction in the next few hours.

Trading tip for XAU/USD (Gold) for August 24 - 25, 2021

Sell below 1,812 (triple resistance), with take profit at 1,795 and 1,781 (5/8), stop loss above 1,818.

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Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on August 25

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

Euro rose by 20 pips on Tuesday, thanks to the signal to buy that coincided with the MACD line being at the oversold area. Sadly, there was no further growth because the indicator was far away from zero in the afternoon.

Surprisingly, the better-than-expected GDP data from Germany did not affect the market much yesterday. The speech of ECB member Isabel Schnabel was also practically ignored, as it did not concern monetary policy. But in the afternoon, euro's rally halted because of good data on US home sales.

Most likely, the bullish move will continue provided that upcoming reports from Germany exceed expectations. But if the figures decline, EUR / USD will drop in price as well. Then, the scenario could escalate in the afternoon if US releases strong data on orders for durable goods.

For long positions:

Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1754 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1796. EUR / USD may climb higher if data from Germany exceeds expectations. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.1733 and 1.1693, but the MACD indicator line must be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1754 and 1.1796.

For short positions:

Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1733 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1693. A decline will occur if Germany releases weak economic indicators and if the ECB takes a wait-and-see position on monetary policy. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

It is also possible to sell at 1.1754 and 1.1796, but the MACD line must be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1733.

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Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on August 26

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

Several market signals appeared in EUR / USD on Wednesday, but the first two had to be ignored because they came when the MACD line was far away from zero. Then, the next signal coincided with the indicator going to the overbought area, so traders were able to short euro by 20 pips. Following that was a signal to buy, which coincided with the MACD line being at the oversold area. This allowed traders to push the pair up also by 20 pips.

Euro was under slight pressure because of the economic reports released yesterday. The data from IFO was just as expected, while other indicators were worse than the forecasts.

There is a high chance that bearish pressure will continue today amid the ECB protocol and data on money supply. Reduced lending in the private sector could also provoke a decline, which may escalate if US releases a strong GDP report for the 2nd quarter. The speech of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium will also be decisive to the EUR / USD pair.

For long positions:

Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1779 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1834. EUR / USD may climb higher if GDP data from France and the whole Euro area exceed expectations. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.1757 and 1.1708, but the MACD indicator line must be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1779 and 1.1834.

For short positions:

Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1757 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1708. A decline will occur if the Euro area releases weak economic indicators and if the ECB takes a wait-and-see position on monetary policy. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

It is also possible to sell at 1.1779 and 1.1834, but the MACD line must be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1757.

Trading Signal for USD/CAD for August 26 - 27, 2021: Buy above 1.2573 (EMA 200)

On August 20, the USD / CAD pair peaked at 1.2948, the highest level since December 2020. Since that day, the pair has been making a correction and has finally reached the 200 EMA zone located at 1.2573.

In a few days, the loonie has strengthened by more than 350 pips. The rally of oil prices of more than 600 pips from the low of 62.00 has given strength to the USD / CAD pair. Now it could be in a zone of a probable technical rebound.

Investors are cautious and prefer to stay on the sidelines ahead of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

This event is an important factor for the currency market. So, it could be limiting the strength of the Canadian dollar, justifying some caution before positioning for any further movement.

According to technical analysis, traders have the same sentiment on USD/CAD as we observe that the pair has found some support near the key support of the 200 EMA and has been bouncing above this level since yesterday.

The 21 SMA located at 1.2658 is exerting some downward pressure. Therefore, a pullback towards this level will be a good opportunity to sell. A little higher is the 4/8 line of murray that has now become strong resistance.

On the other hand, a break below 1.2573 (200 EMA) will open the possibility of a new bearish sequence that could reach the 2/8 murray support level located at 1.2451.

The key point until Friday is to wait for a consolidation above the 200 EMA. Whenever there is a bounce at this level, it will be a good opportunity to buy with targets at 1.2695 and up to 1.2817.

Buy above EMA 200 at 1.2573 with take profit at 1.2695 (4/8) and stop loss below 1.2538.

Sell if the price makes a pullback 1.2695 (4/8) with take profit at 1.2630 and 1.2573 (3/8), stop loss above 1.2730.

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Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on August 27

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

There was a signal to buy in EUR / USD in the morning, but traders had to ignore it because it came when the MACD line was at the overbought area. This resulted to euro dropping by another 20 pips, which, in turn, formed a signal to sell in the market. But since the MACD indicator was far away from zero, the pair did not go down much. Following that was another signal to buy, but it also did not result in a large movement.

Obviously, the minutes of the July ECB meeting and data on money supply and lending did not affect the market much.

And today, since there are no important macro statistics scheduled to be released, the market will most likely remain calm in the morning. But by afternoon Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will make a speech, which will be decisive to the EUR / USD pair. Data on German import price index and US income will most likely be ignored.

For long positions:

Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1770 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1800 (thicker green line on the chart). EUR / USD trade upwards if the Federal Reserve does not hint on future policy changes. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.1750 and 1.1708, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1770 and 1.1800.

For short positions:

Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1750 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1708. A decline will occur if US releases strong economic reports and if the Fed indicates potential changes in the monetary policy. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

It is also possible to sell at 1.1770 and 1.1800, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1750.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on August 30, 2021

Bankers' symposium in Jackson Hole ended on Saturday. The much anticipated speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell only confirmed the general line of the central bank, regardless of the intentions of the hawks (Bostic, Kaplan, Harker, Mester) to announce plans to start phasing out QE in September, to begin this phase out in December, and to raise the rate at the earliest. Next year. The main thing that investors took from Powell's speech was a signal of a later rate hike than other central banks, including the European Central Bank, would do. Powell paid a lot of attention to inflation, confirming the thesis about its temporary surge, but, briefly paying tribute to the good growth of the labor market, noted that the pandemic could weaken this growth, which, in our opinion, gives room for maneuver. We suspect that labor data released on September 3 will already come out worse than forecast (unemployment is expected to decrease from 5.4% to 5.2% and non-farm in 728,000).

The price goes above the balance indicator line on the daily scale chart, the Marlin oscillator is growing, the target at 1.1835/47 remains, overcoming this range opens the second target at 1.1920.

The growth continues as usual on the four-hour chart: the price is above the indicator lines, Marlin turned up after the discharge (correction) on the 26th.

Forecast for GBP/USD on August 30, 2021

The pound, after creating a local low on August 20, has formed a new upward price channel, starting from the March 2020 low. The Marlin oscillator has moved into the zone of positive values, into the zone of an upward trend, now we expect the price to continue to rise to the nearest embedded line of the price channel around 1.3858 (the level coincides with the lows of March 2, April 27). The closest resistance is the MACD indicator line at 1.3798, which coincides with May 2021's low.

The price settled above the indicator lines on the H4 chart, above the intermediate target level of 1.3747, gathering strength before the attack at 1.3798.

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Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on August 31, 2021

August 31 economic calendar:

Today, the UK lending market data will be published at 8:30 Universal time, where not everything is so bad according to forecasts. The main event today is considered to be the publication of preliminary inflation estimates in Europe, which could grow from 2.2% to 2.7%. Such an intense rise in consumer prices scares investors since this situation requires immediate action from the European Central Bank, which is still doing nothing. At the same time, the regulator does not even give hints about a change in the course of monetary policy, which puts even more pressure on the market due to complete uncertainty.

In such a situation, speculators appear, where the growth of inflation can be won back by the market both by a local decrease and by growth in the value of the euro. This does not exclude local surges in the market.

From the point of view of fundamental analysis, inflation growth is a positive signal for the national currency, but when consumer prices rise faster than forecast, this is not considered the best signal.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on August 31:

The ascending inertial move has already led to the fact that the euro is overbought in the market.

In this situation, two possible scenarios can be considered:

The first one comes from the downward cycle from the beginning of June, where the current correction is already at the limit of possibilities. This can lead to the early completion of growth and the resumption of the downward cycle. This forecast will be confirmed if the price is held below 1.1800, which will open the way towards 1.1760-1.1700.

The second scenario considers an inertial move, where speculators are not stopped by an overbought signal. This leads to a movement towards the level of 1.1900.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on August 31:

The resistance level of 1.3800 is still putting pressure on buyers, which may lead to a reduction in the volume of long positions. If the price rebounds from the resistance level, a movement may occur towards the level of 1.3735.

An alternative scenario of the market development will arise if the price is kept above the level of 1.3830. This could jeopardize the downside cycle from 1.4000.

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Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 1

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

There was a signal to buy in EUR / USD on Tuesday, but it had to be ignored because the MACD line was far away from zero. After some time though the indicator hit the overbought area, so bearish traders were able to open short positions. This provoked a 30-pip decline in the market. There were no other signals for the rest of the day.

Surprisingly, even though the data released yesterday exceeded expectations, EUR / USD did not undergo large movements. Only the report on US consumer confidence led to a slight surge in volatility.

Another report will come from Germany and the Euro area today, but it is unlikely to shake the market. Then, in the afternoon, there will be data on US manufacturing and employment, followed by speeches from Fed representatives.

For long positions:

Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1818 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1849 (thicker green line on the chart). EUR / USD trade upwards if economic data from Germany and the Euro area exceed expectations. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.1796 and 1.1765, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1818 and 1.1849.

For short positions:

Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1796 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1765. A decline will occur if the Euro area reports weak manufacturing activity and employment. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

It is also possible to sell at 1.1818 and 1.1849, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1796.

Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

There were several market signals in GBP / USD yesterday. But the first one, which was to sell, had to be ignored because the MACD line was at the oversold area. Following that was a signal to buy, which successfully provoked a 20-pip increase. Then, another signal to sell appeared in the afternoon and this time, it finally coincided with the MACD line moving down from zero. As a result, bearish traders were able to open short positions, which led to a 30-pip decline in the market.

Surprisingly, UK data on lending and money supply did not affect the market in any way, and only the report on US consumer confidence led to a surge in volatility.

Today, an interesting report on UK manufacturing activity is coming out, which may put even more pressure on pound. Then, in the afternoon, there will be data on US manufacturing and employment, followed by speeches from Fed representatives.

For long positions:

Open a long position when pound reaches 1.3761 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3810 (thicker green line on the chart). The pair will continue moving up if there are strong PMI reports. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.3727 and 1.3679, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3761 and 1.3810.

For short positions:

Open a short position when pound reaches 1.3727 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3679. A decline will occur if UK releases very weak data on manufacturing activity. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

The pair could also be sold at 1.3761 and 1.3810, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3727 and 1.3679.

[KostiaForexMart]

Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 2, 2021

Sept 2 economic calendar:

The weekly data on applications for US unemployment benefits will be released at 12:30 Universal time today, where they predict a decrease in their volume. This may support the US dollar if expectations coincide.

Details of statistics:

The volume of initial applications for benefits may fall from 353 thousand to 345 thousand.

The volume of repeated applications for benefits may fall from 2 862 thousand to 2 775 thousand.

Therefore, a decline in the number of applications for benefits may lead to a strengthening of the national currency – USD.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 2:

Euro's high overbought level does not stop speculators, who continue to form a correction from this year's base.

In this case, one should trade on both sides.

Sell positions come from a downtrend that is relevant in the market. In this case, the first entry into the market may occur if the price pulls back from the correction maximum with a target of 1.1800.

Sell positions are considered to maintain an inertial course in the market, when speculators ignore the overbought status. In this case, the maximum possible growth of the euro is the level of 1.1900.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 2:

It can be assumed here that the sideways movement within the range of 1.3730/1.380 will remain on the market for some time. Now, it is worth preparing for the upcoming acceleration, trading by the method of breaking through a particular border.

Buy positions can be considered if the price is kept above the level of 1.3800.

Sell positions can be considered if the price is kept below the level of 1.3725.

[KostiaForexMart]

Forecast for GBP/USD on September 3, 2021

The British pound gained 63 points yesterday, close to the first target level of 1.3858 (2 March low). Such a breakthrough was necessary for the price to overcome the accumulation of indicator lines, which were strong resistance on Tuesday and Wednesday. And if the overcoming of the resistance took place on a strong impulse, then we are waiting for the price to surpass the nearest level and rise to the second at around 1.3883 - to the embedded line of the growing price channel. Surpassing 1.3883 opens the way to the high target of 1.4004 - this is the point of coincidence of the next line of the price channel with the level of highs on March 12 and 18 and April 20.

On the H4 chart, the price left the wedge-shaped structure upwards. The MACD line is turning up, the Marlin oscillator is growing in the positive trend zone. We are waiting for the pound to rise further.

[KostiaForexMart]

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 6, 2021

Friday's US employment data came out so that both optimists and pessimists were satisfied; in the non-agricultural sector, 235,000 new jobs were created against expectations of 750,000, and the unemployment rate decreased from 5.4% to the projected 5.2%, while the July non-farms were revised up from 943,000 to 1,053,000( +110,000), which probably affected the euro's final insignificant growth by 10 points. Of course, this data will still be further analyzed by market participants and gradually included in prices, but at the current moment, perhaps, a more important event is on the agenda - the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday, September 9. The main European bank is expected to signal to the markets that it is time to think hard about tightening monetary policy.

At the moment, the euro is in a convenient range (1.1847-1.1920), in which there have been short-term consolidations since mid-June. The 1.1920 target level seems to be strong, a good external stimulus is necessary to overcome it, which will not happen today due to the holiday in the US (Labor Day).

The price has formed a double divergence with the Marlin oscillator on the four-hour chart, which may return the price to the lower border of the 1.1847-1.1920 range. Perhaps the price will correct even lower, to the MACD line to the 1.1818 mark area, which coincides in price level with the MACD line on the daily scale. After the correction, we expect the euro to continue rising. Target at 1.1975.

[KostiaForexMart]

Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 7, 2021

September 7 economic calendar:

In terms of the economic calendar, the third estimate of Europe's GDP in the second quarter has been published today, which can confirm the economic growth of 13.6%. The factor is positive, but it is worth considering that we only have confirmation of the previous assessment. Thus, the market has already taken into account the statistical data in the quote.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 7:

The resistance area of 1.1880/1.1905 continues to put pressure on buyers. This led to a stop of the upward movement and as a result, the first signal of a possible change of direction. The price being kept below 1.1850/1.1860 on a four-hour period will increase the chances of sellers for a subsequent decline towards the range of 1.1800-1.1760.

An alternative scenario of the market development considers an amplitude move along the resistance area.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 7:

The pullback from the resistance level of 1.3880 was replaced by a slight stagnation, while the downward interest still takes place in the market. To strengthen the sell positions, the quote needs to stay below the level of 1.3815, which will automatically lead to a decline towards the level of 1.3800. In this case, an increase in the volume of short positions is possible, which will open the way towards the level of 1.3735.

An alternative scenario of the market development will become relevant if the price is kept above the level of 1.3905. In this case, the upward cycle from 1.3600 is prolonged towards the psychological level of 1.4000.

Short positions or Short means sell positions.
Psychological levels are round values (1.2000, 1.3000, 1.4000, 1.5000, etc.) that serve as key coordinates in the market that traders pay special attention to. These levels are often used as support or resistance.

[KostiaForexMart]

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 8, 2021

The release of yesterday's German and European business sentiment indices for September somewhat deepened the euro correction. The German business sentiment index ZEW fell from 40.4 to 26.5 against the expectation of 30.2, the same index for the euro area fell from 42.7 to 31.1 against the expectation of 35.3. The euro lost 30 points. Investors took the exit somewhat emotionally, even if it failed, leaving in the shadows industrial production growth in Germany by 1.0% in July, GDP growth in the eurozone for the second quarter by 2.2% against the first estimate of 2.0% and employment growth eurozone for the second quarter by 0.7% against the previous estimate of 0.5%. The ZEW indices are still survey indicators, formed against the background of an increase in the incidence in the first half of August, but now the incidence in Germany and in the euro area has sharply declined, which should affect the ZEW indices in a month. Obviously, investors are aware of all these events, and therefore we are waiting for the euro to recover to its original positions by the European Central Bank meeting.

On the daily chart, the price has been rising since the opening of the day, trying to break above the support at 1.1847, which had been pushed through yesterday. Consolidating above it, again defines the target for the price at 1.1920. The Marlin Oscillator is also slowly turning up.

On the four-hour chart, the price reverses without reaching the MACD line. All of yesterday's correction took place above the balance indicator line, which confirms the decline precisely as a corrective decline within the general upward trend.

[KostiaForexMart]

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 9, 2021

Yesterday, the euro deepened its correctional decline. Trading volumes were the highest for the current week, which indicates a significant closing of positions before today's European Central Bank meeting. The consensus forecast of economists boils down to a possible reduction of the PEPP program from 80 to 60 billion euros, but at the same time a small extension of the program itself.

The price reached the support of the balance and MACD indicator lines on the daily scale chart, a slight reversal is planned this morning. The Marlin oscillator has slowed its decline as it approaches the border with the downtrend territory. We are waiting for a positive decision from the ECB and the euro to rise to the nearest target level of 1.1920.

The price has settled below both indicator lines on the four-hour scale, the Marlin oscillator is turning to the upside from the negative zone. In the event of a strong fundamental news release, such plunges under the indicator lines are interpreted (after the fact) as false, but a false price exit in itself is a sign of further price growth. To do this, the price must go back above the MACD line, that is, above the level of 1.1847.

[KostiaForexMart]

American stock indices fell 0.8-0.9%

US President Joe Biden last week announced a new vaccination plan for COVID-19 in the country, including new vaccination rules for federal employees, major employers and medical personnel, in a bid to contain yet another surge in the spread of the coronavirus in the United States.

According to the New York Times, the daily number of new cases of COVID-19 in the United States is on average just below 150 thousand, the proportion of the population vaccinated is 53%.

Traders are closely monitoring the situation with the coronavirus in the country, as it directly affects the plans of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) to roll back anti-crisis measures to support the economy. Recent comments from FRS officials suggest that the US Central Bank intends to begin reducing bond buybacks by the end of this year.

Interactive Brokers analyst Steve Sosnik noted that US stocks are holding near record highs and many investors are worried about the withdrawal of stimulus that has supported the stock market.

The statistics released on Friday showed the acceleration of the growth rate of producer prices in the USA in August to the maximum since November 2010 of 8.3% in annual terms. In July, prices increased by 7.8%, and experts had expected their rise in August by 8.2%. New York Life Investments economist Lauren Goodwin said they continue to see high inflationary pressures. Producer price data speaks in favor of buying stocks in companies, which can pass the growth of their spending onto consumers.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average by the close of the market on Friday fell by 271.66 points (0.78%) and amounted to 34607.72 points.

Standard & Poor's 500 fell by 34.7 points (0.77%), that is, to 4458.58 points.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 132.76 points (0.87%) to 15115.49 points.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.2% for the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6%.

Apple Inc. share price fell 3.3% by the end of trading on Friday. The company received an order from a federal district judge who was reviewing Epic Games Inc.'s lawsuit to change the rules of the App Store and allow mobile app developers to redirect users to alternative resources to pay for services. The court ruling limits Apple's important source of revenue.

Wells Fargo fell 0.1%. On the eve it became known that the Office of the Comptroller of the Circulation (OCC) fined Wells Fargo $ 250 million due to the fact that the bank has not yet eliminated violations in the mortgage business, revealed back in 2018.

Video game makers rose. Zynga rose 6.3%, Roblox rose 1.8%, Activision Blizzard rose 2%, Electronic Arts rose 2%.

Affirm Holdings Inc., the operator of the online hire-purchase service, jumped 34% on strong quarterly earnings from the company. Affirm's revenue for the fourth financial quarter, which ended in June, amounted to $ 262 million, exceeding the market consensus forecast of $ 224 million. The company's financial statements impressed analysts: the average target price of Affirm shares after the publication of quarterly results rose to $ 109 from $ 97.

[KostiaForexMart]

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 14, 2021

Yesterday, we recommended waiting another day to see whether the price will settle below 1.1802, or will there be an upward reversal from it. The MACD indicator line of the daily scale is located at the level of 1.1802. Yesterday, the price just pierced this line with a lower shadow and closed the day higher. The Marlin Oscillator did not move below the zero line. Today the price may turn upwards. The targets are indicated on the chart: 1.1852, 1.1920.

On the four-hour scale, the price made a false pass under the level of 1.1802, forming a convergence with the Marlin Oscillator. This is a reversal signal. Marlin came close to the border with the territory of the growing trend. Overcoming yesterday's high (1.1817) will be a signal that the price could advance to the first target at 1.1852. But here we will clarify the range of the first target - 1.1852/58, since the MACD line is above, and its breakthrough in the current situation becomes a more important condition for the euro's growth towards the second target of 1.1920.

Forecast for USD/JPY on September 14, 2021

Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair decided to try to develop an upward momentum once again over the last week. On the daily chart, the price settled above the MACD indicator line, with the help of the Marlin oscillator, which turned up from the zero line. The growth target of 110.63 is the embedded trend line of the price channel. The stock market is not flat, but is growing: yesterday the S&P 500 added 0.23%, the Nasdaq lost -0.07%.

On the four-hour scale chart, the price settled above the balance (red) and MACD (blue) indicator lines, and today, since the opening of the Pacific session, the price turned upward from the MACD line, which formed a reversal pattern. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turned upward from the zero line. We are waiting for the price to continue rising.

[KostiaForexMart]

American stock indices fell by 0.5-0.8%

The US stock market closed in the red on Tuesday after rising early in the day on data that inflation in the US was slightly weakening. At the same time, the Nasdaq Composite dropped for the fifth session in a row.

Initially, the market began to rally in relief due to slightly smaller-than-expected price increases, but this data is unlikely to change the intentions of the Federal Reserve to roll back stimulus measures, says Randy Frederick, managing director of Charles Schwab.

Consumer prices (CPI) in the country in August rose by 5.3% compared to the same month last year, the Ministry of Labor said. Thus, inflation has slowed down somewhat compared to the maximum value over the past thirteen years of 5.4%, which was recorded in June and July. The change in the CPI index in August coincided with the average forecast of analysts.

Prices excluding food and energy (Core CPI) increased 0.1% MoM (the smallest increase since February) and 4% YoY. The consensus forecast was for an increase of 0.3% and 4.2%, respectively.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday fell by 292.06 points (0.84%), that is, to 34577.57 points.

The value of Standard & Poor's 500 decreased during the day by 25.68 points (0.57%), amounting to 4468.73 points.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 67.82 points (0.45%), that is, to 15,037.76 points.

Oracle Corp. decreased yesterday by 2.8%. A day earlier, one of the world's largest software companies announced that its revenue in the first quarter of fiscal year 2022 (June-August) increased by 4%. However, it did not live up to the expectations of the experts.

Apple Inc. dropped 1% after the company unveiled a new line of smartphones, the iPhone 13, as part of the annual event. The new iPad and Apple Watch were also shown with a display that seamlessly merges with the body.

Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. plummeted more than 21% after a nutritional supplement maker worsened its financial outlook for the second time in a month.

Sportradar Group AG fell 7.2% at its debut trading to $ 25.05. The Swiss sports performance analytics firm conducted an IPO at $ 27 on the Nasdaq and raised $ 513 million. The IPO was $ 513 million, and the company as a whole was valued at $ 21.07 billion.

Among the Dow Jones components, Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (-2%), Caterpillar Inc. (-1.9%) and Chevron Corp. (-1.8%). At the same time, only Microsoft Corp. shares rose in price. (+ 0.9%), Salesforce.com Inc. (+ 0.1%) and Coca-Cola Co. (+ 0.1%).

Intuit Inc. added 2% in price. The software maker that owns tax-processing platform TurboTax has announced its $ 12 billion purchase of marketing firm MailChimp.

[KostiaForexMart]

Forecast for AUD/USD on September 16, 2021

Yesterday, the Australian dollar closed the day with a white candle of 11 points, piercing the 23.6% Fibonacci level with the lower shadow, that is, having made a false exit below the level. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turned upward from the border with the downward trend area. Conditions and signs have been formed for a further rise to the Fibonacci level of 38.2% at the price of 0.7450. Overcoming this level opens the second target of 0.7558 - Fibonacci level 50.0%. The level grid is based on the movement from February 25 to August 20.

The Marlin Oscillator has moved into the growth area on the four-hour chart. The price is heading towards the intermediate resistance on the way to the target of 0.7450 - to the MACD line in the area of 0.7404.

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 16, 2021

The euro gained 15 points on Wednesday, helped by the ongoing divergence in European and US economic indicators for several weeks. Yesterday, European industrial production growth in July showed an increase of 1.5%, and in the US by 0.4%.

On a daily scale chart, the price is slowly reversing upward from the MACD indicator line. The Marlin Oscillator is moving sideways along the zero line - along the border separating the growing and declining trends. This behavior of the oscillator shows that additional external factors are required to continue the euro's growth. Today, it may be the indicator of retail sales in the United States for the last month - the forecast is negative: -0.8% after reducing by 1.1% in July.

We are waiting for the euro to strengthen with the release of the evening data. The task is to overcome the resistance range of 1.1852/58, which will open the second target at 1.1920.

On the four-hour timescale, the Marlin Oscillator has consolidated in a growing trend zone. The price is currently struggling with the resistance by the balance indicator line, breaking above which will make it easier for the price to prepare for an attack on the target range of 1.1852/58.

[KostiaForexMart]

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 17, 2021

Yesterday, the euro fell 52 points under mysterious circumstances. The euro chose its main movement even before the release of data on retail sales, which had practically no effect on the euro, except that other counter-dollar currencies weakened a little after the European flagship. The euro fell along with gold and US government bonds - gold lost 2.25% in a day, the yield on 5-year bonds rose from 0.799% to 0.840%. The daily trading volume for the euro was the highest in September and August. This is possible only in one case - if investors know for sure about the intention of the Federal Reserve to announce a tightening of QE at the next meeting on September 22nd.

But we will not lay such an assumption on the basis of current forecasts, since harsh statements by central banks can easily reverse technical prerequisites and trends. At the moment, the situation for the euro is completely downward: the price went under the balance and MACD indicator lines on the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator is going down in the negative zone. If it were not for the upcoming Fed meeting, we would have concluded that a confident movement to the target level of 1.1640 is being formed, but now we will keep silent about this, but note that the price is at the lower border of the consolidation range formed on July 20-26 (1.1750). Therefore, it is very possible that the decline below the indicator lines, and Marlin's departure below the zero line, may eventually turn out to be false - the price may turn upward from this level this time too. We will receive the answer only on Wednesday next week. Today our recommendation is to refrain from trading.

On the four-hour chart, a standard correction occurs after the previous price drop. The MACD line is located high from the price, which creates the preconditions for the formation of a new range (sideways movement) before the Fed meeting.