Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

Two buy signals appeared in the market on Monday, but the first one had to be ignored because it came when the MACD line was at the overbought area. Meanwhile, the second signal appeared when the MACD line was moving upwards from zero, so euro was able to climb by as much as 45 pips. But there were no subsequent signals because euro did not reach the target value.

Trading recommendations for June 22

Although euro rose a bit on Monday, further growth is very unlikely because today, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech, which will most likely bring demand back to dollar and accordingly, put pressure on risk assets. Powell might discuss future actions on monetary policy, as well as shed light on the possibility of scaling down the bond purchase program.

During the European session, ECB Board member Philip Lane will also deliver a speech, which may help euro break above all-time highs. Reports on EU consumer confidence and US home sales will also be released, but all this will be no match to Powell's statements.

For long positions:

Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1919 (green line on the chart), and then take profit around the level of 1.1965. However, a price increase is very unlikely because the upcoming speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will most likely bring demand back to dollar, which will push risk assets into a bear market. In any case, before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

For short positions:

Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1895 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1851. Pressure will return on the pair if the Eurozone releases weak economic reports. A massive drop may also occur after the Fed press conference, provided that the statements of Jerome Powell bring demand back to dollar. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

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American stock indices rise 0.2-0.8%, Nasdaq hits new record

Speaking to the US Congress on Tuesday, Powell reiterated his view that the acceleration in inflation in the country is likely to be temporary, noting that the US Central Bank will continue to support the economy. The U.S. economy is showing steady improvement, according to his speech at the House of Representatives Coronavirus Subcommittee.

US employment growth will pick up in the coming months and inflationary pressures will ease as the US economy continues to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, Powell said. The lending programs adopted by the Federal Reserve at the height of the crisis have freed up more than $ 2 trillion in funding that helped cut job losses in companies, nonprofits and local governments, he said.

Powell's comments, released Monday night, eased financial markets' fears about the Fed's imminent withdrawal of stimulus measures due to uncontrolled inflation in the United States, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.

Meanwhile, New York Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) chief John Williams said on Monday that he is not ready for the Fed to ditch the support it provides to the economy amid uncertainty over the pace of recovery from the pandemic.

John Williams said the economy is recovering at a fast pace and the medium-term outlook looks very good. However, the data and conditions have not improved enough for the FOMC to abandon a monetary policy that actively supports the economic recovery.

US existing home sales declined 0.9% in May to 5.8 million homes on an annualized basis, the National Association of Realtors said in a report on Tuesday. Thus, the decline was recorded for the fourth month in a row. As a result, the indicator dropped to an eleven-month low - from June 2020. Meanwhile, compared to May last year, resales jumped by 44.6%, which is primarily due to the low comparison base due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic at this time last year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 68.61 points (0.2%) to close the market and amounted to 33945.58 points. A day earlier, the indicator showed the maximum rise in percentage terms since the beginning of March.

Standard & Poor's 500 rose by 21.65 points (0.51%) - to 4246.44 points.

The Nasdaq Composite added 111.79 points (0.79%) to 14253.27 points, which is a new record for the close.

The leaders of growth in trading on Tuesday were the shares of large technology companies. Netflix Inc. rose 2.4%, Amazon.com Inc. - by 1.5%, Apple Inc. rose 1.3%, Microsoft Corp. - by 1.1%, Facebook Inc. - on 2%.

Alphabet Inc., the parent company of Google, gained 0.4%, despite the fact that the European Commission launched a formal antitrust investigation against the American Google, in which it intends to assess the facts of abuse by the company of its leading position in the online advertising market.

Stock quotes of the American GameStop Corp. jumped by 10%. The owner of a chain of video games and consumer electronics stores raised about $ 1.126 billion by placing 5 million shares at market price. The proceeds from the sale are planned to be used for general corporate needs, as well as investments in growth initiatives and strengthening the company's balance sheet.

Market value of Blackstone Group Inc. increased by 0.1%. The American investment fund buys for $ 6 billion Home Partners of America, which specializes in the provision of single-family homes for rent.

Sanderson Farms Inc. added 10.3% in price. The American poultry producer is considering selling the business amid growing demand for chicken products, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing knowledgeable sources.

Capitalization of Exxon Mobil Corp. increased by 1.9%. According to Bloomberg, citing sources, the company will reduce the number of employees in its American offices by 5-10% per year over the next 3-5 years, using a performance assessment system to identify low-productivity employees.

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Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

Three buy signals appeared in the market on Wednesday, but all of them had to be ignored because they came when the MACD line was at the overbought area. There were no other signals for the rest of the day.

Trading recommendations for June 24

Euro rallied on Wednesday amid good reports from the Eurozone and weak data from United States. And today, this buying pressure may continue, especially if IFO releases strong assessments in Germany's economy. Otherwise, euro will post a decline.

Then, in the afternoon, data on US jobless claims may bring demand back to dollar, which will accordingly lead to a drop in EUR / USD.

For long positions:

Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1940 (green line on the chart), and then take profit around the level of 1.1991. Strong reports from Germany may set off a rally. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

For short positions:

Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1916 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1856. Pressure could return at any moment as the pair is currently overbought. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

[KostiaForexMart]

Stock Asia is trading in positive territory

According to IG Singapore-based market strategist Yeap Joon Rong, a breakthrough in infrastructure spending talks overnight lifted spirits as spending has historically been a positive factor for the markets. Areas that depend on economic recovery will show strengthening.

The Japanese Nikkei 225 index by 8:23 GMT + 2 increased by 0.7%.

Among the leaders in the growth of quotations are the shares of the automobile company Mazda Motor Corp. (+ 8.7%), electronics manufacturer Panasonic Corp. (T: 6752) (+ 4.8%), steel makers Kobe Steel (+ 4.5%) and Nippon Steel Corp. (+ 4%), producing perfumery Shiseido Co. (+ 4.2%).

The price of securities of the chip maker Advantest Corp. is also rising. (+ 1.5%), investment and technology SoftBank Group (T: 9984) (+ 1%), consumer electronics manufacturer Sony (+ 1.4%) and automaker Toyota Motor (+ 0.1%).

Panasonic, which makes lithium batteries for electric vehicle maker Tesla, sold its entire stake in the American company last fiscal year, which ended in March, the Nikkei reported Friday. According to him, the amount received could be about $ 3.88 billion.

By 8:28 GMT + 2, China's Shanghai Composite Index rose 1%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index added 1.1%.

In particular, a significant increase in the course of trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is shown by the quotations of securities of the Internet company Meituan (+ 4.3%), brewery Budweiser Brewing Co. APAC Ltd. (+ 3.9%), Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. (+ 3%).

In addition, shares of online retailer Alibaba Group (+ 2.2%), Internet giant Tencent Holdings (+ 1.9%), oil companies CNOOC (+ 2.2%) and PetroChina (+ 1.85%) are gaining in price. ...

At the same time, the cost of the car manufacturer Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. (-0.8%), pharmaceutical Sino Biopharmaceutical Ltd. (-0.9%) and sporting goods manufacturer Anta Sports Products (-0.9%).

The South Korean Kospi Index rose 0.5% by 8:22 GMT + 2. South Korea's manufacturing business confidence index reached 98 points in June, up from 96 points a month earlier. This is the highest level since April 2011. In the non-manufacturing area, the indicator remained at 81 points.

The market value of one of the world's largest chip manufacturers, Samsung Electronics Co. rose 0.25%, while the market value of automaker Hyundai Motor fell 0.2%.

Australian S & P / ASX 200 added 0.5% by 8:23 GMT + 2.

Capitalization of the world's largest mining companies BHP and Rio Tinto (LON: RIO) rose 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively.

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Magnetic Pound: GBP attracts investors. Forecast grid

Recently, the British currency has attracted active interest from most investors. Experts believe that the reasons for this popularity are fatigue from the excessive volatility of the dollar and the relatively stable geopolitical situation in the UK.

Despite the active build-up of long positions in USD, the dollar cannot boast of stability. This is hindered by conflicting US macroeconomic data released last week. According to analysts, the dollar will receive an additional growth impulse if market players increase the number of long positions in USD. Against this background, the GBP looks advantageous, since it is now in the focus of investors' attention.

The growing interest in the British currency is due to the expectation of successful results of mass vaccinations in the UK. According to experts, the current situation with the spread of COVID-19 and its new strain remains tense. According to Prime Minister Boris Johnson, in the near future, the British authorities will determine the scope of the fourth stage to ease restrictions. Last week, Sajid Javid, UK Minister of Health, noted that coronavirus restrictions would be lifted no earlier than July 19.

In this situation, the British currency has lost some of its positions. Last Friday, July 2, the pound gained 0.5%. At the end of the second quarter of 2021, the pound remained in positive territory, having increased by 0.37%.

Throughout the past week, the pound has tried to maintain the positions it has gained. Last Friday, July 2, a strong support level near 1.3760 was formed in the GBP/USD pair. According to experts, bearish sentiments will continue in the tandem in the medium term. However, the bulls are determined and are not going to give up their positions. At the end of last week, they dominated the market, but now the situation may change.

At the start of trading on Monday, July 5, the GBP/USD pair was trading at 1.3821. However, on the approaches to the strong resistance level of 1.3852, the growth of the British currency slowed down. Later, experts recorded the beginning of the consolidation of the GBP/USD pair. At the moment, analysts consider it expedient to buy sterling. In the event of a breakdown of the powerful resistance level 1.3852, you can count on breaking the barriers 1.3925 and 1.3980.

Experts are optimistic about the short-term and medium-term prospects of the pound sterling. Currency strategists at Bank of America Global Research believe that the pound will maintain a positive trend until the end of 2021. The bank expects further cyclical growth of the British pound until the end of 2022. The GBP will be supported by such factors as strong economic growth in the country, the "hawkish" attitude of the Bank of England, as well as excess global liquidity and low currency conditions.

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Above $1,800: Gold rises in price for sixth session in a row

On Tuesday morning, the price of gold bars was able to finally break through the psychological mark of $1,800. At the time of writing, the noble asset rose 1.07%, or $19. Its price was $1,802.3.

Silver also showed a confident positive trend. The asset rose by 0.88%, jumping to the level of $26,735.

According to analysts, the main catalyst for the growth of the precious metals market is the weakening dollar. On Tuesday, the US currency continues to lose its superiority against its competitors.

Gold has been growing for the sixth consecutive session, drawing strength from other sources as well. The decline in 10-year US bonds and the difficult epidemiological situation in the world give a good boost to the yellow asset.

The new strain of the delta coronavirus increases the risk of a slowdown in economic activity in a number of Asian countries, which strengthens the position of gold as the main safe haven asset.

In addition, the precious metal received significant support last week from the US labor market. The sudden increase in unemployment prompted investors to think that perhaps the US Federal Reserve will not rush to change the current course of monetary policy, keeping interest rates at the current level.

If this scenario is confirmed, bad days will come for the US currency again, unlike gold, for which such a development of events will be an excellent springboard for growth.

Meanwhile, some analysts associate the current dynamics of the precious metal with a technical correction. The yellow asset is recovering losses after a sharp collapse last month. However, if significant negative factors appear, its price may decline again.

Now, investors are waiting for the release of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting. Tomorrow's comments about inflation and interest rates may turn gold around, as it was last month. Back in June, the regulator predicted the probability of a rate hike in 2 years.

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Protective Assets: Gold or Cryptocurrency?

Goldman Sachs experts are confident that in the future Ethereum will be able to take the place of bitcoin as a means of saving. According to the bank, Ether has more potential than bitcoin, due to the extensive ecosystem and more diverse options for the practical application of this cryptocurrency.

At the same time, neither bitcoin nor ether can yet overtake gold, which remains the leader among all defensive assets. Since cryptocurrencies, unlike gold, are too volatile, which is incompatible with the concept of a safe haven asset. However, experts clarify that gold can be viewed as a defense against inflation, and cryptocurrency – against inflationary risks.

Moreover, the very competition between cryptocurrencies also prevents them from squeezing gold in the status of a defensive asset. And this is not the whole list of «disadvantages» of digital assets. For example, analysts at the Bank of Singapore consider volatility, low confidence and lack of regulation to be the main obstacles to the spread of digital assets as a means of saving. However, if these problems are solved, bitcoin and ether may well replace gold.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on July 8, 2021

USD/JPY

Yesterday, the yen traded in a 40-point range and closed the day at the opening level below the MACD indicator line. The Marlin oscillator strengthens the urge to leave its own channel downward.

What is noteworthy: the dollar index rose by 0.19% yesterday, stock indices also rose in general (Dow Jones 0.30%), with the exception of second-tier stocks (Russell 2000 -0.70%). The Russell 2000 index is often a leading direction indicator for major indices. And in today's Asian session, the Japanese Nikkei 225 index is already decreasing by -0.57%. It is possible that investors' expectation of a fall in the stock market worries them a lot, this decline has been talked about more and more recently. But be that as it may, the surpassing yesterday's low of 110.41 opens the way to the first target at 109.80. This is the main scenario.

On the four-hour chart, the price is holding back before hitting the 110.41 signal level. The price is below the balance and MACD indicator lines. Marlin is in the downward trend area. We are waiting for the attack in order for the price to go down.

The alternative scenario is difficult. To do this, it needs to go above the MACD line on both charts. On the H4 it is 111.02.

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Pound - "Vaccine Champion": Prospects and Hopes for GBP

The British currency remains relatively stable, trying to keep the gained positions and build up new ones. In the medium and long-term planning horizons, experts expect the pound to rise, despite its limited growth potential.

Currently, the British currency has sunk slightly against the background of disappointing macro statistics. The GBP sales started after the publication of reports on UK GDP (0.8% with an expected 2%) and low industrial production (0.8% with a forecast of 1.5%). On the morning of Friday, July 9, the GBP/USD pair was trading near 1.3775, but later lost some of its gains.

According to analysts, sterling is stuck among local lows, near the powerful support level of 1.3754. Experts believe that in the event of a breakdown of the strong resistance level of 1.3794, bullish sentiment will increase in tandem. While maintaining the moderate dynamics of the GBP/USD pair, it will remain within the range of 1.3754-1.3794. This assumption is partially realized, giving the pound hope in the medium term. However, by now the GBP/USD pair has fallen to 1.3763, leaving no attempts to rise.

The British currency's hopes are supported by currency strategists Credit Suisse, who expect the GBP/USD pair to recover to 1.3940, and then to the round level of 1.4000. The bank emphasizes that in the near future, it is possible to form a peak in the area of 1.4000, the breakthrough of which will lead to an enhanced recovery of the pound.

Positive sentiment regarding the prospects for sterling is supported by analysts at Credit Agricole CIB Research. The bank supports the "bearish" trend of the British currency, which will continue in the coming weeks. "The GBP has gone from an investment vehicle for generating 'Covid-19 vaccine alpha' in the FX markets to a hedge against the resurgence of the pandemic in recent weeks. The rapid fall from grace of the hitherto G10 FX 'vaccine champion' warrants a cautious stance on the currency in the near term," Credit Agricole CIB Research emphasizes.

The popularity of the British currency is promoted by positive changes in the country's economy. The UK is on the way to an economic recovery, the signs of which are a shortage of labor and rising wages. It should be noted that the salary increase is the fastest since 2014. The continuation of the existing trend will force the Bank of England to curtail the monetary stimulus program, which will lead to the strengthening of the GBP.

Earlier, at the end of 2020, the UK showed the worst economic result among developed countries, but now much has changed. At the moment, England is among the top 5 most vaccinated countries (67% of the vaccinated population). Success in immunization allowed the British authorities to declare the complete lifting of restrictions in a week and a half, on July 19.

With regard to the target inflation rate of 2%, the Bank of England maintains the same position, the regulator believes that finding the indicator within 2% is quite natural. An increase in this indicator will require the regulator to curtail the monetary stimulus program. If the Bank of England does this before the Federal Reserve, the pound will receive an impetus for further strengthening in the medium term.

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Analysts predict an imminent collapse of bitcoin to $10,000

Experts of the cryptocurrency market say that the current position of bitcoin is difficult to call stable, and soon BTC risks falling back to the level of $ 10,000 at all. Today, investors do not have a single reason to buy the first cryptocurrency or keep it in the portfolio.

In their disappointing scenarios, analysts rely on historical data, when during the past falls, the value of BTC sank by 80%.

Experts confidently call the current position of the main digital coin a collapse. Traditionally, this term is used to describe the fall of the cryptocurrency by 70-80%, which corresponds to the price range of $ 10,000-15,000.

Recall that in recent months, the first digital currency has already fallen from a record $ 60,000 to $ 33,500. The main downward factor for bitcoin was pressure from Chinese regulators.

Known for his indifferent attitude to the cryptocurrency market, Elon Musk criticized the blockchains of the main digital coin and Ethereum for the low transaction speed and high costs. At the same time, the founder of Tesla warmly supported Dogecoin and called it one of the most actively used digital currencies in the world.

In general, analysts call the current situation of the cryptocurrency market today "the summer calm before the storm". The current dynamics of the bitcoin price with significantly reduced trading volumes are traditionally considered a dangerous signal. When the market is affected by an insignificant number of open positions – any minor incident can lead to a grandiose sale.

[KostiaForexMart]

Trading recommendation for EUR/USD on July 13, 2021

Looking at the EUR/USD trading chart, one can see the amplitude price movement within the resistance area of 1.1880/1.1895, as if there is a cumulative effect in the market before a new round of acceleration.

Sell signal
Traders will consider this if the price is kept below the level of 1.1835, which will open the way to the support level of 1.1800.

Buy signal
Traders will consider this if the resistance area of 1.1880/1.1895 is broken, which will lead to further formation of a correction. In this case, there is no need to rush. We consider buying positions above the level of 1.1900, with a prospect of 1.1950-1.2000.

* The resistance level is the so-called price level, from which the quote can slow down or stop the upward movement. The principle of constructing this level is to reduce the price stop points on the history of the chart, where the price reversal in the market has already occurred earlier.

* The accumulation process is a price fluctuation in a closed amplitude, where at the moment of a breakdown of a particular stagnation border, a local acceleration in the direction of breakdown often occurs.

Trading recommendation for GBP/USD on July 13, 2021

As for the trading chart of the GBP/USD, it shows the price movement within the deviation of the level of 1.3900, where market participants still view it as resistance.

Sell signal
They have been considered by traders since yesterday, where sell positions may have already been opened. If no deals have been opened, it is advised to wait for the price to hold below the level of 1.3835. The prospective target is 1.3785-1.3750.

Buy signal
It is considered by traders as a prolongation of the existing correction, but entering the market will be possible after the price holds above the level of 1.3950, with a prospective target of 1.4000.

What is reflected in the trading charts?

A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each individual candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative time period: the opening price, the closing price, the maximum and minimum prices.

Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market.

Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future.

The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.

Things to remember:
Golden Rule: It is necessary to figure out what you are dealing with before starting to trade with real money. Learning to trade is so important for a novice trader since the market will exist tomorrow, next week, next year, and the next decade.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 14, 2021

The euro fell by 83 points on Tuesday, which created some ambiguity in the technical interpretation of this movement.

The high rate of decline, due to which the Marlin oscillator slowed down with a decline, on the one hand, forms a double convergence on the daily chart, on the other hand, the signal line of the oscillator has approached the lower border of its own channel and is preparing to overcome it.

Here, theoretically, convergence may develop, for which the price needs to reach the March low of 1.1705, but the oscillator may continue to develop in the global descending channel, and then the price may reach the target level of 1.1465 and even 1.1300. But we consider this scenario as the main one. Thus, yesterday's low at 1.1772 is a signal level - price drift below it opens the target at 1.1705. Further movement to 1.1640 is possible.

No peculiarities observed on the four-hour chart, there are no reversal signals, the price is below the balance and MACD lines, and Marlin develops a decline. We are waiting for the price at the nearest target level of 1.1705.

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Trading recommendations for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on July 27, 2021

Analysis of trading charts from July 26:

The EUR/USD pair managed to show an upward interest, but it was limited by the range of 1.1750/1.1830 previously set in the market.

To simply put it, the quote still follows the sideways amplitude.

Trading expectations from July 26 considered the strategy of breaking through one or another border of the side range (1.1750/1.1830), but the signal was not confirmed, and the quote is still moving in the established range.

The GBP/USD pair still managed to resume the upward movement after 30 hours hovering around the interaction area of trade forces of 1.3750/1.3800, keeping the quote above the level of 1.3800.

Considering the upward movement from the pivot point of 1.3570, market participants retraced the pound sterling by almost 100% relative to the decline from July 16-20.

Trading expectations from July 26 considered both a rebound and a breakdown relative to the area of 1.3750/1.3800, thereby giving the opportunity to stay in sync with the market.

Trading recommendation for EUR/USD on July 27, 2021

Looking at the EUR/USD trading chart, one can see that the quote has been within the lateral range of 1.1750/1.1830 for more than 150 hours, which focuses a lot of attention from speculators.

In this case, market participants are focused on the outgoing impulse relative to one or another border of the established range, which will indicate the next price movement in the market.

Expectations and prospects:

Traders consider this if the price is kept below the level of 1.1750 in the direction of 1.1700.

Traders consider this if the price is kept above the level of 1.1830 in the direction of 1.1900.

Trading recommendation for GBP/USD on July 27, 2021

As for the trading chart of the GBP/USD, it can be seen that there is a slight stagnation within the area of 1.3800/1.3845, which indicates that buyers are hesitant to take further actions. The reduction in the volume of long positions may be a local manifestation in the market due to the recent acceleration.

To confirm buyers' intentions, the price needs to hold above the level of 1.3850, which will open the way towards 1.3900.

If the upward interest is limited, and the quote manages to return below the level of 1.3780, an increase in the volume of short positions is not excluded, and this will cast doubt on the next growth.

• Short positions or Short means sell positions.
• Long positions or Long means buy positions.

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European stock markets closed lower

The British FTSE 100 fell 0.42%, the German DAX dropped 0.64%, and the French CAC 40 fell 0.71%. Italy's FTSE MIB and Spain's IBEX 35 lost 0.83% and 0.87%, respectively.

Dassault Systemes shares gained 1.3%. The French software developer has improved its financial forecasts for 2021 amid growing software sales.

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA fell 0.6%. The world's largest luxury goods manufacturer increased revenues by 56% in the first half of the year, while net profit jumped 10 times.

Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc shares fell 8.4%. The British company, which produces and sells hundreds of household chemicals and medicines, received a pre-tax loss in the first half of this year and reduced its revenue.

Just Eat Takeaway.com gained 4.3%. A shareholder in Cat Rock Capital has called on the Dutch food delivery service to strike a merger deal with other major global players in the industry.

The leaders of growth among the components of the Stoxx Europe 600 index were securities of the British chemical company Croda International Plc, which jumped 5.6%. Meanwhile, the leaders of the fall were the shares of the Swiss-American manufacturer of computer peripherals Logitech International SA, which fell 9.9%.

Investors are awaiting the results of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS), which will be summed up on Wednesday, as well as reports of large American companies, including Apple Inc., Alphabet Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Starbucks Inc.

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USD rises ahead of Fed's meeting

The US dollar fell slightly due to durable goods orders data. Shortly after, it was trying to strengthen against a basket of six major rivals. Today, the most anticipated event of the week will take place - the FOMC meeting. Yet, many experts think that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is unlikely to announce certain changes to the monetary policy. So, his testimony will hardly surprise market participants. Moreover, the Fed will clarify its position in the Jackson Hole meeting which is scheduled for September. However, investors are still awaiting the current meeting with bated breath. The main question is how the market will react to the Fed's meeting.

Currently, China's stock market is in the spotlight. It has collapsed significantly due to the ongoing tightening of regulation on large IT companies. Sharp fluctuations in China's equity market may adversely affect stock markets in other countries.

Hence, demand for safe-haven currencies is rising after the fall in government bond yields. Treasuries are declining despite expectations of the reduction in the bond-buying program. Usually, this would lead to an increase in government bond yields.

The greenback seems to have resumed bullish momentum. It may soar to new highs amid turmoil in the market. Besides, the US currency may strengthen if the Federal Reserve hints about the probable reduction of the bond-buying program.

The yen rose moderately following a sell-off in China's stock market. The rebound of the Japanese stock market from the recent low was much more modest in comparison with other countries.

The US dollar index is growing moderately before the Fed's meeting. Maybe traders have already started factoring in Jerome Powell's hawkish remarks.

The EUR/USD pair, as the main barometer of risk sentiment in the market, opened the trading day with a decline. Yesterday, it remained almost unchanged. The pair may even climb to 1.1900 if the Fed's meeting outcome does not stir panic in the market.

If Powell does not provide new comments about the bond-buying program, the euro will continue to fluctuate between the levels of 1.1700 and 1.1800 with possible rebound to the 19th mark. Investors are certain that the Fed will not reveal anything new until the Jackson Hole meeting in autumn where it will discuss whether to raise the debt ceiling.

Experts believe that the euro will rally in the near future. For instance, economists at Commerzbank assume that the pair may return to the area of 1.1860-1.1930.

Strong resistance levels are located at 1.1884 and 1.2008. These level may halt the pair's growth. After breaking through 1.1750, the next target will be the area of 1.1704–1.1600.

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EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Trading recommendations for novice traders for July 30, 2021

Economic calendar for July 30

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have preliminary data on inflation in Europe, where it is predicted that consumer prices will rise from 1.9% to 2.0%.

Given the growth of the European currency over the past days, inflation indicators could have already been taken into account in the quotes.

Inflation in the EU - 09:00 UTC

We study and analyze

• The consumer price index is prepared by Eurostat, which determines the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services for a given period. This indicator is considered a key indicator for assessing inflation. From the point of view of fundamental analysis, the rise in inflation is a positive signal for the national currency, but when consumer prices rise faster than forecasted, it is not considered the best signal.

Trading plan - EURO/DOLLAR for July 30

Analyzing the current Euro/Dollar trading chart, you can see that the resistance level at 1.1900 puts pressure on buyers, which leads to a slowdown and a rebound in the price.

In this situation, traders consider two possible scenarios of price development at once:

The first plot proceeds from the natural basis of the past, associated with the resistance level of 1.1900, which contributes to the increase in the volume of short positions.

In simple terms, traders are looking at a rebound from 1.1900 towards 1.1830.

The second plot assumes that the correction from the pivot point 1.1750 will remain relevant in the market and after a short stagnation along the 1.1900 level, it will still be broken by the price along an upward trajectory. For the trading scenario to coincide on the market, the quotes must hold higher than 1.1915 in a four-hour period, this will open the way in the direction of 1.1950-1.1975.

Trading Plan - Pound/Dollar for July 30

Analyzing the current Pound/Dollar trading chart, you can see that the area of the psychological level of 1.4000 acts as a resistance in the market, which leads to a slowdown and a rebound in the price. The logical basis of the past associated with this level can play into the hands of sellers, which will lead to an increase in the volume of short positions.

In simple terms, the rebound stage may well lead to a downward move towards the 1.3900 level.

An alternative scenario for the development of the market will be considered by traders if the price is kept above 1.4050 in the daily period. In this case, the chances of buyers will increase to return the quotes to the area of the local high of the medium-term upward trend.

[KostiaForexMart]

Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on August 2

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

Euro fell on Friday despite good GDP and inflation reports from the Euro area.

Trading recommendations for August 2

EUR / USD will again move depending on the economic reports that the Euro area will release today. Strong data on manufacturing activity will lead to a price increase, while a weaker than expected report could result in another decline in the market. Then, in the afternoon, a similar report will be published from the US. This time, if the data expectations exceeds, dollar will regain its strength, which could lead to a decline in the pair.

For long positions:

Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1882 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1920. Demand will increase if the Euro area publishes strong economic data. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.1857 and 1.1818, but the MACD indicator line must be in the oversold area in order to bring about a market reversal to 1.1882.

For short positions:

Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1857 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1818. A decline will occur if the Euro area releases weak economic reports. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

It is also possible to sell at 1.1882 and 1.1920, but the MACD line must be in the overbought area in order to provoke a market reversal to 1.1857.

Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

Pound did not hit the local high last Friday. To be more specific, it was the multiple failed attempts to break through 1.3975 that led to the closure of many long positions in the market.

Trading recommendations for August 2

Pound will trade today depending on the data on UK manufacturing activity. If the figure turns better than the forecast, then GBP/USD will increase rather sharply. Then, in the afternoon, a similar report will be published from the US. This time, if the data exceeds expectations, dollar will regain its strength, which could lead to a decline in the pair.

For long positions:

Open a long position when pound reaches 1.3910 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3956 (thicker green line on the chart). GBP/USD will climb up if UK publishes good PMI data. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.3885 and 1.3846, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area in order to set off a market reversal to 1.3910.

For short positions:

Open a short position when pound reaches 1.3885 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3846. A decline will occur if UK releases weak economic reports. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

It is also possible to sell at 1.3910 and 1.3956, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area in order to trigger a market reversal to 1.3885.

[KostiaForexMart]

Another trillion dollars for the American economy

Yesterday, the leading US stock indexes fell slightly, but in general they continue to be near their absolute highs and can update them any time. All three leading indexes, the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and NASDAQ Composite, maintain upward trends. We have already mentioned earlier why this is happening. First, the Fed continues to buy bonds and mortgage-backed securities from the open market, saturating it with liquidity. And all the cash immediately flows into the most profitable stocks that can provide profit to their investors in the future. Moreover, the profit is not even a dividend, but a profit due to a constant increase in value. The dividends of almost all American companies are already below the current inflation. Therefore, it is extremely difficult to make a profit from dividend payments in the near future. However, since investors do not have much choice, and stocks are the most common investment tool, it is the stock market that capital continues to flow.

At the same time, the US Senate agreed on a new package of assistance to the US economy. Previously, it appeared under the name "infrastructure package". It can be recalled that Joe Biden offered two stimulus packages for the American economy, each of about $2 trillion. As you can see, the final version of the first package is half as small. However, we have not yet seen the second package, which is the "social" one. The infrastructure package will be aimed at investing in roads, bridges, ports, the internet, and other facilities over the next 5-8 years. It is noteworthy that the source of the formation of this package is planned to be tax revenues, but not the attraction of loans. In other words, the US government will not climb into even greater debts to finance this $1 trillion package. Of course, we cannot judge where this money will come from. In America, they really like to live on credit, and the size of the public debt in the United States already exceeds the volume of GDP. Simply put, the States owe more money than their economy is worth. In fairness, it should be noted that about half of the debts are debts to themselves. Simply put, the American government owes American investors, various American funds, the Fed, and so on. For example, the United States owes China or Japan only $1 trillion, which is not so much. Thus, a default is unlikely to threaten Washington. Moreover, the money is spent on improving infrastructure, which will attract new investors to America even more in the future. The Fed can also print money in almost any volume without fear of hyperinflation, since the dollar remains the world's number one currency. One way or another, the US economy continues to accelerate and will continue to do this for many years to come.

[KostiaForexMart]

Forecast for USD/JPY on August 4, 2021

USD/JPY

Yesterday, the yen continued strengthening against the dollar and overcame the target level of 109.20. The Marlin Oscillator is declining and the price is expected to move towards the target of 108.35, but for this the yen still needs support from external markets, which is now weakening.

Yesterday, the US stock index S&P 500 gained 0.80%, this morning the Chinese Shanghai Composite added 0.69%, only the Japanese Nikkei 225 lost 0.16%. The dollar index is in a neutral position. Consolidating above 109.20 may lead to growth to the nearest target of 109.80.

On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator continues to develop inside the wedge, the exit from which statistically predominates downward, but due to the reversal of the signal line from its lower border, a double convergence of the price with the oscillator has formed, and this is already a sign of an upward breakthrough.

The result is an uncertain situation, although rather an expectant one. The price movement in either direction can be fast and deep, so investors are in no hurry to get ahead of events. Together with the market, we will also wait.

[KostiaForexMart]

Hot forecast for GBP/USD from August 5, 2021

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, a meeting of the Bank of England is scheduled, during which no changes in the parameters of monetary policy, including the interest rate, are expected.

Investors are most interested in comments during the meeting, which may lead to speculative manipulations in the market.

During the US session, weekly data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be published, where they predict a reduction in their volume, which is considered a positive factor and may lead to a strengthening of dollar positions.

The GBP/USD pair, following the correction pattern from the psychological level of 1.4000, reached the support of 1.3900, where there was a slowdown and as a result, a rebound in the price.

The pivot point of 1.3900 was tested twice for strength by the quote, which indicates interest in sales from market participants.

The volatility of the currency pair at the beginning of the trading week is 61 points, which is considered a low indicator and may indicate the process of accumulation of trading.

Expectations and prospects

The downward development of the price according to the correction scenario is still relevant in the market. But in order to confirm the sellers' intentions, the quote needs to stay below the 1.3870 mark. In this case, it will open in the direction of 1.3825-1.3780.

The upward development will be relevant in the case of holding the price above the level of 1.4000 on the daily period. In this scenario, the correction course will end, and the upward cycle from the local minimum on July 20 will be prolonged to new levels.

A comprehensive indicator analysis signals a sale relative to the short-term and intraday periods, due to the price movement within the 1.3900 level.

[KostiaForexMart]

EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Trading plan for novice traders for August 6, 2021

Economic calendar for August 6

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, a report by the United States Department of Labor will be published, which in the world of finance is considered one of the most important economic events.

Expectations for the report:

The unemployment rate in July may decrease from 5.9% to 5.7%

Outside agriculture, 870,000 new jobs can be created against 850,000 in the previous reporting period.

As you can see from the details of statistical expectations, experts predict a further recovery process, and this may lead to an increase in the US dollar if the forecast coincides.

The time of publication of the report is 12:30 UTC.

Trading plan - EURO/DOLLAR (August 6)

Market participants are working to depreciate the euro, which corresponds to the process of recovery of the downward movement in relation to the correction. Trading expectations consider the value of 1.1752 as a possible outlook for the downward trend. In this scenario, we will receive a full price recovery relative to the corrective move, as well as a signal to prolong the downward cycle from the beginning of June.

Trading Plan - POUND/DOLLAR (August 6)

The price movement along a sideways trajectory is still relevant in the market, but traders are already ready for changes since working within the established boundaries does not have high profits.

Traders will consider an upward movement if the price holds above the level of 1.4000, opening the way in the direction of the values 1.4100-1.4150.

A downward movement will be relevant if the price is kept below the level of 1.3885, opening the way in the direction of 1.3825-1.3800.

[KostiaForexMart]

Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on August 9

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

A signal to sell appeared in the market on Friday, which provoked a 30-pip decline in EUR / USD. Apparently, the signal came when the MACD line was going down from zero, so traders were able to open short positions in the market.

The improved situation in the US labor market contributed to such a sharp downward movement, especially since good employment figures are evidence of strong economic recovery. Meanwhile, other data released last Friday, such as reports on industrial production in Germany and foreign trade balance in France, were not remarkable at all.

Today, the market will move depending on the reports scheduled to be published. In the morning, there will be data on the foreign trade balance in Germany and investor confidence from the Euro area, which are expected to post a decline. If this happens, demand for euro will continue to decrease. Then, later in the afternoon, the situation may exacerbate as Fed representatives will deliver speeches, which could provoke increased demand for dollar and accordingly, a further decline in EUR / USD.

For long positions:

Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1779 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1828. Demand will increase if the Euro area publishes good data on investor confidence. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.1741 and 1.1705, but the MACD indicator line must be in the oversold area in order to bring about a market reversal to 1.1741 and 1.1705.

For short positions:

Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1741 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1705. A decline will occur if the Federal Reserve hints at a future policy change. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

It is also possible to sell at 1.1779 and 1.1828, but the MACD line must be in the overbought area in order to provoke a market reversal to 1.1741.

Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

There were several market signals on Friday, but only some were successful. In fact, the first one, which was to sell, had to be ignored because it came when the MACD line was far away from zero, which significantly limited the downward potential of GBP / USD. Fortunately by afternoon, the indicator had moved down from zero, so the pair was able to decline by about 50 pips. And today, price has reached the target level, which is 1.3855.

Surprisingly, long-term prospects for bond purchases did not help pound, which cannot be said about the data on the US labor market, which exceeded all expectations. Meanwhile today, there are no macro statistics scheduled to be published, so pound will most likely undergo an upward correction. But later in the afternoon, the situation may change as Fed representatives will deliver speeches, which could provoke increased demand for dollar and accordingly, a decline in GBP / USD.

For long positions:

Open a long position when pound reaches 1.3881 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3919 (thicker green line on the chart). GBP / USD may climb today since there are no macro statistics scheduled to be published. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.3854 and 1.3820, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area in order to set off a market reversal to 1.3881.

For short positions:

Open a short position when pound reaches 1.3854 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3820. A decline could occur in the afternoon, during the speech of Fed representatives. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

It is also possible to sell at 1.3881 and 1.3919, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area in order to trigger a market reversal to 1.3854.

[KostiaForexMart]

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on August 10, 2021

Outlook on August 10:

Analytical overview of popular currency pairs on the H1:

The key levels for the EUR/USD pair are 1.1791, 1.1773, 1.1761, 1.1741, 1.1723, 1.1705, and 1.1694. The price has been moving in a downward trend since July 30. Now, we expect a short-term decline in the 1.1741 - 1.1723 range. If the last value is broken, it will allow us to move to a potential target of 1.1694. After that, the price may consolidate in the range of 1.1705 - 1.1694, from which a pullback into a correction can be expected.

A short-term growth, in turn, is likely in the range of 1.1761 - 1.1773. If the latter is broken, a deep correction will occur. The target is set at 1.1791, which is also the key support level.

The main trend is the downward trend from July 30.

Key levels of structure development:

Upward resistance: 1.1761 Target: 1.1772

Upward resistance: 1.1775 Target: 1.1790

Downward resistance: 1.1736 Target: 1.1724

Downward resistance: 1.1721 Target: 1.1705

The key levels for the GBP/USD pair are 1.3934, 1.3897, 1.3870, 1.3831, 1.3813, 1.3781, 1.3749, 1.3728 and 1.3683. The further development of the downward trend from July 29 is expected after the price breaks through the noise range of 1.3831 - 1.3813. The target is set at 1.3781 and the price may consolidate around it. If the indicated target is broken, it will lead to a strong decline to the next target of 1.3749. After that, the price may consolidate in the range of 1.3749 - 1.3728. The ultimate potential downward target is 1.3683. After reaching it, an upward pullback can be expected.

Short-term growth is expected in the range of 1.3870 - 1.3897. If the last value is broken, a deep correction will occur. The target is set at 1.3934, which is also the key support level.

The main trend is the downward trend from July 29.

Key levels of structure development:

Upward resistance: 1.3870 Target: 1.3895

Upward resistance: 1.3899 Target: 1.3934

Downward resistance: 1.3813 Target: 1.3781

Downward resistance: 1.3779 Target: 1.3750

[KostiaForexMart]

Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on August 11, 2021

August 11 economic calendar:

Today, the US inflation data will be released. The consumer price index is expected to decline from 5.4% to 5.3%. But at the same time, there is a forecast that inflation will remain at the level of 5.4%.

Taking into account expectations, dollar positions look quite good in the market.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on August 11:

Market participants are testing the strength of this year's base, but they are extremely cautious about selling positions. Traders will consider the next decline after the price is kept below the level of 1.1680, which may open the way towards 1.1620.

The scenario of a price rebound from the area of 1.1704 will become relevant if the quote is kept above the level of 1.1745.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on August 11:

The downward trend is still relevant, but if one hasn't worked with sell positions before, then it is logical to wait for the price to be kept below the level of 1.3800.

It is worth noting that there is currently a stagnation, so local buy positions may be opened if the price is kept above the level of 1.3845, opening the path towards 1.3865.

[KostiaForexMart]

Simplified wave analysis and forecast for AUD/USD and USD/CHF, GOLD on August 12

AUD/USD

Analysis:

The direction of movement of the Australian dollar in the main pair is set by the bearish wave of February 25. The quotes have reached the upper limit of the strong zone of a large TF, along which a correction plane has been developing in the last three weeks.

Forecast:

Today, the pair's price movement is expected mainly horizontally, within the boundaries of the previously formed price corridor. An upward vector is likely further after the possible pressure on the support zone in the next session.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:
- 0.7420/0.7450

Support:
- 0.7350/0.7320

Recommendations:

When making trade transactions on the Australian dollar market today, it is more reasonable to reduce the lot, trying not to go beyond the intraday. Sales are riskier and are not recommended.

USD/CHF

Analysis:

The direction of short-term fluctuations of the Swiss franc chart is set by the downward wave algorithm of June 18. A week ago, an ascending section started towards the main course. At the current moment, its wave level does not go beyond the correction.

Forecast:

Today, the price movement is likely to move to a sideways plane. At the European session, a decline in the support area is not excluded. The probability of a return to the bullish movement vector increases, with the price rising into the area of the resistance zone.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:
- 0.9250/0.9280

Support:
- 0.9190/0.9160

Recommendations:

Trading in the conditions of the upcoming flat on the franc market today is possible only for supporters of short-term transactions. Purchases are more promising.