Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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EUR/USD. March 29, 2021| Euro remains below 1.1800

The EUR/USD pair continues to move within a narrow range of 1.1750-1.1800. The main support for the US dollar last week was provided by economic statistics, which allowed the dollar index to reach a four-month high.

Individual spending fell 1%, while the expected decline was only 0.7%. At the same time, revenues fell 7.1% (vs. 7.3% forecast), and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised upward (from 83.6 to 84.9). Moreover, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits reached the lowest level for the entire period of the pandemic (684 thousand applications).

The IFO report on the index of the business climate in Germany helped to stop the fall in the euro: the indicator exceeded analysts' expectations, rising to 96.6 points. However, the euro is still under strong pressure from the difference in the epidemiological situation between the US and the eurozone. The United States plans to return to normal life in a few months, while the fight against coronavirus in Europe is far from successful. In Germany, they fear that the third wave of the pandemic will be the most destructive and they propose to return the curfew.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty, the pair will continue to fluctuate weakly below the 1.1800 level.

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EUR/USD. March 30, 2021 | Euro continues to decline to multi-month lows

The main currency pair continues to update its lows, reaching 1.1725. Sales of the European currency continue due to the deterioration of the situation with the coronavirus in the euro area, as well as against the background of the strengthening of the dollar, which is in demand due to the growing interest in «safe» assets.

On Tuesday, the economic calendar is not of particular interest, but the rest of the week will be quite informative. Today it is worth paying attention only to the important release on the consumer confidence index from the Conference Board for March. Analysts do not exclude an increase in the indicator from 91.3 to 97.0 points, which is very positive for the US dollar.

Tomorrow, President Biden will unveil his $3 trillion infrastructure project, and a key US non-farm employment report will be released on Good Friday (although markets in many countries, including the US, will be closed). Investors are preparing for the strongest payrolls in the last 5 months.

However, there are risks: Biden's infrastructure project could be financed by raising taxes, and these are new taxes in the amount of $1 to $3 trillion, and the higher the real figure, the stronger the pressure on the stock market will be.
 

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GBP/USD. March 31, 2021 | Pound sterling is corrected after the release of GDP data

The British pound is showing some strengthening today against the dollar after the publication of a block of economic statistics. The current quote for the GBP/USD pair is 1.3766.

UK GDP in the IV quarter of 2020, according to the final data, grew by 1.3% q/q, while the forecast of an increase of 1.0% q/q. By the end of 2020, the British economy fell by 7.4% y/y against the forecast of a failure of 7.8% y/y. Such indicators can be considered positive, since by the end of a rather difficult year, the British economy was still able to show good results.

At the same time, the property price index in Great Britain in March fell by 0.2% m/m after an increase in February by 0.7% m/m. This is worse than forecasted, but it can be explained by the cold weather this spring and the continued lockdown. In-store prices continued to fall in March and fell 2.4% y/y due to massive discounts, special offers and discounts.

In the evening, you should also pay attention to the data from the United States. The dollar may receive strong support from the ADP statistics, which should show an increase in employment by 380 thousand. And this is a very good result, indicating a confident recovery of the labor market in the United States. If the forecasts are confirmed, the dollar will continue to rise to the area of local highs near 1.3660.

EUR/USD. 31.03 | Euro recovers after falling to 1.1700

Yesterday, the euro slipped even more, falling to the level of 1.1700. The fall was again driven by a jump in Treasury yields amid successful US vaccinations and a faster economic recovery. Back in early January, rates on 10-year bonds were 0.91%, and in March the figure reached 1.77%. The widening yield spread between US and German securities is also an additional negative factor for the European currency.

However, on Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair is showing some correction: the asset quotes rose to the 1.1735 area. The entire spectrum of risky assets was supported by the publication of China PMI indices. The index of business activity in the service sector in March rose to 56, points against the forecast of growth to 51.9. In the industrial sector, the indicator was 51.9 against expectations of 51.3 points.

Additional support for the pair was provided by the data on employment in Germany. The indicator came out better than the forecast, showing a decrease in the number of unemployed by 8 thousand.

Tonight, attention should be paid to the speech of US President Joe Biden, during which the head of the White House will present a new program of economic assistance in the amount of $1.5-3 trillion.

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GBP/USD. April 01, 2021 | British sterling is moderately recovering 

The GBP/USD pair continues to trade in the range of 1.37-1.38. The current quote for the pair is 1.3775.

Sterling received support yesterday after the publication of UK GDP data, according to which the economy grew by 1.3% in the 4th quarter of last year. The actual numbers beat analysts' forecasts for a 1.0% q/q rise in GDP. By the end of 2020, the British economy fell by 7.4% y/y against the forecast of a failure of 7.8% y/y.

The pound received additional support today from the data on business activity in the manufacturing sector in Britain in March: the indicator rose to 58.9 against the forecast of growth to 57.9 points. In February, the index was fixed at 55.1 points.

On the side of buyers is also the corrective weakening of the US dollar against the background of fixing positions on the eve of Good Friday and on the eve of Friday's Non-farm Payrolls. Labor market statistics from ADP were released yesterday. According to the report, the number of new jobs in March increased by 517 thousand, which fell short of the forecast of 525 thousand.

The position of the British currency is also supported by the high rates of vaccination of the UK population and the related reduction in restrictive measures in the country.

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Brent. April 02, 2021| Oil starts to grow after the OPEC+ meeting

The price of Brent oil started to rise after the announcement of the results of the meeting of the heads of the OPEC+ countries. At the moment, the quotes rose to the level of $65.03 per barrel, the current price of the asset is $64.70.

The alliance, contrary to expectations, decided to gradually increase oil production within three months, starting in May. In particular, the collective increase in the current production level in May will amount to 350 thousand barrels per day, in June – 350 thousand barrels per day, and in July production will grow by 450 thousand barrels per day. Thus, the OPEC+ countries will increase production by more than 1 million barrels in three months.

Saudi Arabia may also cut some of its previously voluntarily assumed additional production limit of 1 million barrels per day. It is noted that the majority of OPEC+ members initially supported the extension of the existing cuts, but the general sentiment changed after Saudi Arabia (the actual leader of OPEC) offered to increase production.

April 05 | EUR / USD technical analysis: H4 chart, Pivot levels

The euro / dollar pair opened today directly above the weekly pivot level, then after a small upward wave broke it from top to bottom, testing the DS1 resistance, turned sharply and moved to growth.

Now buyers of EUR / USD are testing the DR1 level, if successful, one can expect further growth to the 1.1800 level, to the DR2 and WR1 lines, to the area of weekly highs.

When planning new deals, do not forget that trades today are held in small volumes and unexpected bursts of volatility and false breakouts of levels are possible.

Daily Pivot - 1.1765;
Daily Resistance 1 - 1.1782, DR2 - 1.1802, DR3 - 1.1819;
Daily Support 1 - 1.1744, DS2 - 1.1727, DS3 - 1.1707.

Weekly Pivot - 1.1752;
Weekly Resistance 1 - 1.1802, WR2 - 1.1842, WR3 - 1.1891;
Weekly Support 1 - 1.1712, WS2 - 1.1663, WS3 - 1.1622.

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April 06 | USD / JPY technical analysis: H4 chart, Pivot levels

The pair US dollar against the Japanese yen started today trading under the daily and weekly pivot levels, then crossed them from the bottom up, but then turned around and moved to a decline.

The price of USD / JPY rewritten the low since March 29 at 109.666, having tested the DS1 and WS1 levels.

The pair is decreasing due to the general weakening of the American currency amid rising yields on government securities and US stock markets.

Daily Pivot - 110.289;
Daily Resistance 1 - 110.621, DR2 - 111.078, DR3 - 111.410;
Daily Support 1 - 109.832, DS2 - 109.500, DS3 - 109.043.

Weekly Pivot - 110.324;
Weekly Resistance 1 - 111.278, WR2 - 111.915, WR3 - 112.869;
Weekly Support 1 - 109.687, WS2 - 108.733, WS3 - 108.096.

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USD / CHF. 07.04 | Correction to line EMA 21

The US Dollar / Swiss currency pair dropped by about 600 points in yesterday's trading, to the 0.9300 resistance level, reinforced by the 21-day exponential moving average line - EMA 21.

Today, the USD / CHF price has renewed its minimum since March 23, 2020 at 0.9282, trying to gain a foothold below the 0.9300 level. If sellers push through the indicated resistance, I expect a further decline to the level of 0.9200 and below, to the point of convergence of the EMA 60 and EMA 200 lines. In case of a rebound, a new upward wave.

I will watch the price for the appearance of the key level 0.9300 and the appearance of additional signals to enter the market.

GBP / USD. 07.04 | "Rails" from the level 1.3900

The Pound Sterling / US Dollar currency pair formed a "rails" pattern on the chart with yesterday's daily candlestick, based on the resistance level of 1.3900, giving a signal to sell.

The price of GBP / USD has renewed its maximum since March 19 at 1.3918, after which it turned around and moved to a decline. Perhaps we saw a false breakout of the 1.3900 level and the pair will return to the movement within the downtrend.

It makes sense to take a closer look at sales according to the specified pattern, while it is safer to wait for the price to fix below the 60-day exponential moving average line - EMA 60.

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EUR / USD. 08.04 | "Pin bar" from the level 1.1900

The EUR / USD currency pair has formed a pin-bar reversal pattern on the daily chart, rebounding from the resistance level of 1.1900, giving a signal to sell.

At yesterday's trading, the EUR / USD price has renewed its maximum since March 23, 2020 at 1.1914. This week, the US dollar is under pressure, which allowed the pair to correct to the previously broken level of 1.1900.

Apparently, the correction is coming to an end and the pair is ready to continue moving within the downtrend. It makes sense to take a closer look at the sales according to the specified pattern, while it is safer to wait for the breakdown of the EMA 21 and EMA 200 lines on the daily chart.

April 08 | GBP / USD technical analysis: H4 chart, Pivot levels

The pound to the US dollar at today's trading has rewritten the minimum since March 31 at around 1.3718.

The price of GBP / USD has been moving in a sideways channel between the WS1 levels and the daily pivot level all day. Over the past two days, the pair has dropped by 1600 points, and today it went into correction.

It is more likely that the downward trend will continue. A signal to enter the market can be the price fixing below the WS1 level.

Daily Pivot - 1.3766;
Daily Resistance 1 - 1.3809, DR2 - 1.3882, DR3 - 1.3925;
Daily Support 1 - 1.3694, DS2 - 1.3651, DS3 - 1.3578.

Weekly Pivot - 1.3794;
Weekly Resistance 1 - 1.3882, WR2 - 1.3940, WR3 - 1.4029;
Weekly Support 1 - 1.3736, WS2 - 1.3647, WS3 - 1.3589.

Monthly Pivot - 1.3821.

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Brent. April 12, 2021 | Oil rises moderately at the start of a new trading week

Brent crude oil continues to trade above $63 per barrel. The current quotation of the asset is $63.80 per barrel.

Today, oil prices have started to rise on optimism about the recovery of the US economy, but the new wave of Covid-19 in Asia is limiting the rise in quotations. In the United States, about 70 million people have already been vaccinated, and in Europe, after tightening restrictions, the number of new cases of the disease has declined. At the same time, a record number of cases are recorded in India and other Asian countries, which will prevent the restoration of world tourism in the near future.

This week, traders will be presented with monthly reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency. They are expected to report on the growing demand from the global economy. Against this background, Brent crude oil may resume its upward movement and go above $64 per barrel.

Last week, the IMF released a forecast that global GDP will grow by 6% this year, which is the fastest pace in 40 years. Traders predict that in the 2nd half of 2021, demand for hydrocarbons will increase and be able to offset the latest OPEC + decision to increase oil production by 2 million barrels between May and July.

EUR/USD. April 12, 2021 | Euro rebounds on strong retail sales data

The European currency is growing on Monday, breaking above the level of 1.1900. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1915.

The euro was supported by data on retail sales in Europe. The index in February increased by 3% compared to January, while the expected growth of 1.5%. Earlier last week, a report on industrial production for February was released, which put pressure on the euro. The indicator fell 1.6% m/m, while the market was expecting a 1.6% m/m gain. A month earlier, the index was down 2.0%.

The USA on Friday presented the March producer price index, which rose 0.7% against the forecast of a rise of 0.2% m/m. In January, the indicator grew by 0.2% m/m. 

Today, the US is to release statistics on the execution of the federal budget in March, but this data is not reflected in any way on the exchange volatility. But the comments of the chairman of the US Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell may attract attention.

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Brent. April 13, 2021 | Oil is stable amid positive external background

Brent is on the rise on Tuesday, reaching $63.70 a barrel. Prices are supported by growing tensions in the Middle East, where Yemeni Houthis fired on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure the day before.

An additional factor supporting «black gold» is optimism associated with the acceleration of vaccination rates and the improvement of the epidemiological situation in the world. On Sunday, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted during his speech that the growth rate of the United States economy will accelerate in the coming months. And this, on the eve of the holiday season and the increased demand for motor fuel, raised expectations of an increase in demand for oil and petroleum products.

Moreover, on the side of buyers – and economic statistics from China, where the volume of exports and imports exceeded the indicators of 2018 and 2019, and the volume of foreign trade increased by 29.2% compared to the same period last year. In the current environment, further growth in Brent quotes can be expected, to the area of $64.00 and above.

EUR/USD. April 13, 2021 | The pair is consolidating at 1.19

On Tuesday morning, the EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate at 1.1900. The euro is gaining ground against the dollar, despite quarantines in several of Europe's leading economies, low vaccination rates and worsening GDP growth forecasts for France and Spain.

Local support for the euro was provided by yesterday's strong data on retail sales in the euro area. In February, consumer spending rose 3%, double the expectations of market participants. At the same time, the January figure was revised from -5.9% to -5.2%. In addition, last week the business activity indices in Germany were revised upwards, and the business climate indicator in the country reached the levels of June 2019 (96.6 points).

Today, market participants are awaiting data on inflation and retail sales in the US (April 15). Analysts believe that vaccination of the population and social benefits should have stimulated March spending, and as a result, the figure could rise by 5.7%. Inflation is also rising, and these two indicators can provide significant support to the dollar.

This week is also due to publish reports on the Small Business Optimism Index for March, as well as data on the number of open vacancies in the employment sector outside the US agricultural sector for the last month.

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GBP/USD. April 14, 2021 | Pound weakened after the release of GDP data

The upward dynamics of the pound did not develop and the GBP/USD pair began to decline from the level of 1.3810. The current quote for the pair is 1.3750.

The pressure on the British currency was exerted by weak statistics, according to which GDP growth for the month amounted to only 0.4%, while the forecast was 0.6%. On an annualized basis, the indicator also fell short of the forecasted values, demonstrating -7.8% instead of -7.3%. At the same time, the volume of production in February increased by 1.0% against the expectation of 0.5%.

Moreover, the Bank of England announced that Chief Economist Andy Haldane will leave his position on the Monetary Policy Committee after the June meeting, and this negatively affected the dynamics of the pound. As you know, Haldane is opposed to lowering the interest rate to the negative zone, so now we can assume that this scenario will become more likely.

However, the US dollar is still under pressure, and the yield on Treasury bonds has ceased to strengthen. Yesterday, dollar sales strengthened after the release of data on inflation in the US, which showed an increase of 2.6%. Today we are watching the speech of J. Powell, on whose comments the further dynamics of the dollar depends.

EUR/USD. April 14, 2021 | Euro can easily reach 1.20

EUR/USD continues to rise during Wednesday's trading, reaching 1.1975. The market practically ignored the weak data on business optimism in Germany from the ZEW. According to the data released, the index of economic expectations in April fell to 70.7 from 76.6 in March. Economists had expected the index to be 79.5. The index fell for the first time since November 2020.

The main support for the pair is provided by the continuing pressure on the dollar. The American currency index sank 1.7% in just two weeks, falling below the support of 92.00 points.

The sale of the dollar intensified after the release of statistics on the consumer price index in the United States. The growth of consumer prices in March amounted to 0.6% compared to the previous month, against the forecast of growth by 0.5%. Annual inflation in March amounted to 2.6% against the forecast of 2.5%. 

Today we should pay attention to the speech of the FRS Chairman Jerome Powell. If the Fed again points to continued soft monetary policy, the pressure on the dollar will intensify, which will allow euro buyers to gain a foothold above 1.20.

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Oil market. April 15, 2021 | Brent remains in the area of monthly highs

On Thursday, oil prices continued to be in the area of monthly highs, thanks to improved forecasts for global fuel demand. The current Brent quotation is $66.30 per barrel.

Prices were supported by a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), according to which oil demand is expected to grow by 5.7 million barrels per day in 2021 compared to 2020. And this is 230 thousand barrels per day more than previously predicted. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has also improved its forecast for global oil demand for the current year and is now expecting an increase of 5.95 million barrels per day.

Additional support for quotations of «black gold» was provided by yesterday's data on crude oil reserves in the United States. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that oil reserves last week fell by 5.89 million barrels, while analysts had expected a half-cut, by 2.89 million barrels. In the current environment, oil prices will continue to trade above $66.00 per barrel.

EUR/USD. April 15, 2021 | Euro is confidently approaching the level of 1.20

The main currency pair continues its upward trend, approaching the level of 1.2000. The main support for the euro is provided by the growing demand for risky assets and the general weakness of the US dollar in the market.

Earlier the head of the US Federal Reserve J. Powell said that the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce the volume of purchases of government bonds long before the interest rates will be revised. At the same time, the regulator did not even indicate an approximate timeframe, which exerted a certain pressure on the greenback's position.

Yesterday, investors drew attention to the publication of a report in the US Beige Book, which showed that from the end of February to the current moment, economic activity in the country has been increasing and returning to a moderate pace, consumer spending is gradually increasing, and employment growth has noticeably accelerated. However, these factors are not yet helping the US currency to interrupt its decline.

Today we should pay attention to the publication of the report on retail sales in the US for March. Analysts expect the indicator to rise 5.8% m/m after falling 3.0% m/m in February. In addition, the March figures for industrial production will be released. According to the average forecasts, the indicator could expand by 2.7% m/m against the decline in February by 2.2% m/m. If the forecasts are confirmed, the euro will not be able to overcome the level of 1.20.

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EUR/USD. April 19, 2021 | Euro has reached 1.2040

EUR/USD is showing strong gains at the start of the new trading week, reaching 1.2040. The macroeconomic calendar is empty today, so the main factor behind the weakening of the US dollar is still the decline in the yield on 10-year US government bonds.

At the same time, even positive statistics on retail sales in the United States did not help the greenback improve its positions in a pair with the euro. As a reminder, last week a report was published, according to which retail sales in March rose sharply by 9.8% m/m after falling by 2.7% m/m in February. The forecast assumed an increase of 5.8% m/m.

The main event of this week will be the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday. The regulator must make a decision on the rate (no changes are expected), as well as comment on further policy and the epidemiological situation in Europe.

There are not many American statistics this week: it is worth paying attention to the data on sales of secondary housing and new buildings in March, as well as the parameters of the leading indicators index last month. In addition, there are preliminary data on PMIs in the manufacturing and services sectors from Markit. The eurozone, in turn, will also provide preliminary data on PMIs in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors for April.

EUR/USD. April 16, 2021 | Euro keeps trying to reach the level of 1.20

The EUR/USD pair continues attempts to reach the 1.2000 level. The current quote for the pair is 1.1980.

Yesterday's statistics from the US was rather mixed. Retail sales rose sharply by 9.8% m/m in March after falling 2.7% m/m in February. The forecast assumed an increase of 5.8% m/m. Analysts note that such a strong growth is quite expected: this month the US population again received financial assistance. Moreover, weather conditions have finally stabilized in the United States, making consumers more mobile.

At the same time, the volume of industrial production in the US in March increased by 1.4% m/m against forecasts of growth by 2.7%. However, despite the fact that these numbers are rather weak, they are the highest in the last 8 months.

Statistics on the number of claims for unemployment benefits in the United States showed a decrease to 576 thousand against the previous figure of 769 thousand and the forecast for a reduction to 703 thousand.

Today it is worth paying attention to the final inflation in Europe. The report confirmed the preliminary estimate, which showed earlier growth of the indicator from 0.9% to 1.3%.
 

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EUR/USD. April 20, 2021 | Euro is trying to reach the level of 1.21

The US dollar continues to fall in price against the euro, approaching 1.2100. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.2070. The American currency is declining even despite the growth of government bond yields, strong data on employment and retail sales.

At the same time, the euro was supported by an increase in the forecast of the investment bank Goldman Sachs, whose analysts adjusted the three-month target for the EUR/USD pair from 1.21 to 1.25. The outlook was upgraded amid expectations that the situation in the Eurozone will improve.

The key event for the euro/dollar pair will be the ECB meeting on Thursday. Analysts expect that rates this time around are likely to remain near the lows, as they have throughout 2021. The regulator's comments on the rapid growth of the consumer price index in Europe and the yield on government bonds will be of much greater interest. But, in general, market participants do not expect any surprises or shocks.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is not rich in events, so investors have the opportunity to calmly watch what is happening on the market and prepare for the ECB meeting.
 

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GBP/USD. April 21, 2021 | Sterling declines from the highs

On Wednesday morning, the British pound is correcting against the dollar, declining from the area of recent highs at 1.4000. The current quote for the GBP/USD pair is 1.3930.

Sterling is declining, despite the rather strong statistics on the labor market in the UK. The unemployment rate fell in February to 4.9% against 5.0% earlier. The number of claims for unemployment benefits in March increased by 10.1 thousand, while in February the figure increased by 67.3 thousand. The forecast assumed an increase of 24.5 thousand.

Experts note that support to the employment sector is provided by a government program that provides for the payment of increased and guaranteed unemployment benefits. The program will run until the end of September 2021.

The UK continues to publish macroeconomic reports today. Particular attention should be paid to the data on inflation in March, where the indicator accelerated to 0.7% y/y against the previous value of 0.4%. However, this turned out to be below the forecast for growth to 0.8%. Also today will be a speech by the head of the Bank of England Bailey.
 

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GBP/USD. April 22, 2021 | Sterling shows correction from 1,40

The British pound has suspended its decline at 1.3900. On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair is showing consolidation, however the RSI indicator is still directed downward, which signals further weakening of the pound sterling.

The statistics released the day before showed that inflation in the UK in March rose by 0.7% YoY, while the forecast assumed an increase of 0.8% y/y. In February, the consumer price index grew by 0.4% y/y. Core inflation in the country accelerated to 1.1% y/y, which coincided with market expectations. Experts expect the UK CPI to rise as electricity bills rise and fuel prices rise. It can be expected that inflation in the UK will reach 2.0% by the end of this year.

Today, the UK economic calendar is empty, so you should pay attention to the data from the US on the number of applications for unemployment benefits. Analysts predict an increase in the indicator to 617 thousand from the previous level of 576 thousand.
 

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GBP/USD. April 22, 2021 | Sterling shows correction from 1,40

The British pound has suspended its decline at 1.3900. On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair is showing consolidation, however the RSI indicator is still directed downward, which signals further weakening of the pound sterling.

The statistics released the day before showed that inflation in the UK in March rose by 0.7% YoY, while the forecast assumed an increase of 0.8% y/y. In February, the consumer price index grew by 0.4% y/y. Core inflation in the country accelerated to 1.1% y/y, which coincided with market expectations. Experts expect the UK CPI to rise as electricity bills rise and fuel prices rise. It can be expected that inflation in the UK will reach 2.0% by the end of this year.

Today, the UK economic calendar is empty, so you should pay attention to the data from the US on the number of applications for unemployment benefits. Analysts predict an increase in the indicator to 617 thousand from the previous level of 576 thousand.
 

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EUR/USD. April 26, 2021 | The bulls broke through the 1.2100 level

EUR/USD looks still strong on Monday, despite a slight correction. The current quotation of the euro is 1.2090, and the recent maximum was marked at 1.2115.

The main support for the euro rate is the growing interest of investors in risky assets. An additional positive was the Friday statistics on business activity in the euro area: the PMI index in the service sector in April rose to 50.3 points against the previous value of 49.6. Business activity in the manufacturing sector increased to 63.3 points from the previous 62.5.

At the same time, the indicators of Germany, the largest economy in Europe, disappointed the markets: the index of business activity in the service sector in April fell to 50.1 points from 51.5 earlier, and in manufacturing – fell to 66.4 points from 66.6 in March. And today's IFO business climate index also fell short of forecasts, rising only to 96.8 points (forecast – 97.8).

At the end of last week, the US also shared data on business activity. The PMI index in the manufacturing sector from Markit in April strengthened to 60.6 points from the previous 59.1 points, in the non-manufacturing sector – rose to 63.1 points from 60.4 points in March. Today we should pay attention to the report on orders for durable goods in the US in March. Forecasts assume an increase of 2.5% m/m after a decline of 1.2% m/m in February.

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Brent. April 27, 2021 | Oil rises in anticipation of OPEC meeting

On Tuesday, Brent quotes are growing moderately, recovering to the level of $65.70 per barrel. Oil prices were supported by the decision of OPEC+ to raise the short-term forecast of world oil demand growth to 6 million barrels per day from the March estimate of 5.6 million.

Today, a day ahead of schedule, a meeting of the OPEC ministerial monitoring committee will take place. OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo in his recent speech noted that the oil market is experiencing a significant improvement in prospects, and the excess oil reserves formed in the world market during the pandemic will completely disappear by the end of this quarter.

At the same time, many risks remain relevant, primarily associated with the deterioration of the epidemiological situation in India, Japan and a number of other regions. India is one of the largest oil importers, so the introduction of additional quarantine restrictions will inevitably impede the recovery in demand for raw materials.

EUR/USD. April 27, 2021 | Euro corrected after reaching local highs

The US dollar is showing signs of strengthening against the euro, reaching 1.2050. The American currency is supported by expectations of the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve System.

Market participants assume that the regulator will confirm its readiness to continue buying back assets in the same volumes in order to achieve maximum employment and price stability. However, many also admit that even before the end of this year, the Fed is announcing plans to gradually reduce monthly asset repurchases (currently the amount is $120 billion), as the US economy shows signs of a rapid recovery from the Covid pandemic.

Also, the regulator is not expected to change the base rate and monetary policy parameters. The main attention of traders on Wednesday will be attracted by the press conference of the head of the Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell, from whom they expect signals about when the Fed may begin to cut stimulus.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty. It is worth paying attention only to the CB consumer confidence index in the USA. Analysts expect a slight increase in the indicator.
 

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EUR/USD. April 29, 2021 | Dollar weakened after the US Federal Reserve meeting

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair started to rise sharply and reached the level of 1.2150. The US dollar was pressured by the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting and the subsequent speech by the head of the regulator Jerome Powell.

The US Federal Reserve System has left the interest rate unchanged in the target range of 0-0.25% per annum. In addition, the Fed kept the volume of purchases of Treasury bonds in the amount of $80 billion monthly, as well as the purchase of $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities unchanged. The regulator noted that it will continue to buy back bonds until progress is made on GDP and inflation.

The general tone of the Central Bank's comments turned out to be restrained and soft, which put pressure on the dollar's position. Jerome Powell said the economic recovery is still fragile and the coronavirus situation remains worrisome.

The macroeconomic calendar today is presented by data on US GDP for the first quarter of the year and the number of applications for unemployment benefits. The Eurozone will share statistics on inflation in Germany in April.

Brent. April 28, 2021 | Oil rises amid improved forecasts for global demand

Oil prices shifted to growth on the back of optimistic forecasts for global demand. The current Brent quotation is $66.30 per barrel. At the same time, the risks, in the form of the rapid spread of the coronavirus in India and the exceeding expectations of the growth of oil reserves in the United States, limit the rise in prices.

Today, the joint technical committee of OPEC+ has kept the forecast for the growth of global oil demand in 2021 at the level of 6 million barrels per day. Moreover, the organization intends to adhere to plans for a phased release of production restrictions from May to July, which also strengthens producers' confidence in a recovery in global demand.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs bank expect the sharpest jump in oil demand ever – an increase of 5.2 million barrels per day over the next half year. And the easing of restrictions on movement between the countries in May will lead to a recovery in global demand for jet fuel by 1.5 million barrels per day.

Yesterday was published a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API), according to which US oil reserves unexpectedly rose by 4.3 million barrels. Today you should pay attention to a similar report from the US Department of Energy. Analysts predict an increase in reserves by 650 thousand barrels.

EUR/USD. April 28, 2021 | The pair consolidates under 1.21 in anticipation of the Fed meeting results

Today the EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate below the 1.2100 level ahead of the Fed meeting. The current price of the instrument is 1.2070. It is unlikely that the quotes will be active until the results of the meeting are announced.

Yesterday in the US was published statistics on the house price index for February: the indicator showed an increase of 0.9 m/m against the forecast of growth of 1.0% m/m. A report from the Conference Board was also presented, according to which the consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose sharply in April and amounted to 121.7 points against the forecast of growth to 113.1. The March indicator was marked at the level of 109.0 points. The current value of the indicator has become the highest in 14 months.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty, all the attention of market participants is focused on the results of the meeting of the Federal Reserve System and its decision on the rate and further monetary policy.

[KostiaForexMart]

EUR/USD. April 30, 2021  | The pair is consolidating below the 1.21 level 

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair started to decline, reaching the level of 1.2075. The dollar received support from data on US GDP, whose growth exceeded analysts' forecasts: from January to March, the economy grew by 6.4% versus 4.3% a quarter earlier.

The results of the meeting of the Federal Reserve System showed that the American regulator is not yet ready to curtail incentives, despite the optimism about the US economy. The Fed still expects when the country's macroeconomic indicators begin to show a stable increase.

Today you should pay attention to the data on GDP in Germany for the first quarter. The financials disappointed investors as the index fell 1.7% qoq, while analysts had forecast a decline of only 1.5%. On an annualized basis, the German economy contracted 3.3%, better than forecast for a decline of 3.6%. The GDP of the entire eurozone exceeded forecasts: the region's economy contracted by 0.6% qoq (forecast -0.8%). In annual terms, the economy contracted by 1.8% (forecast 2.0%).

Thus, the EUR / USD pair is consolidating under the influence of ambiguous statistics. The RSI indicator is corrected to the neutral zone, which indicates the formation of a flat below the 1.2100 level.

[KostiaForexMart]

EUR/USD. May 3, 2021 | The US dollar started the week on a minor note

The US dollar ended April on a positive note, but on the first Monday in May, the american currency weakened to 1.2050. The main influence on the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair is provided by macroeconomic publications from the USA and the Eurozone.

At the end of last week, the US released data on personal income and spending of Americans in March. Revenues rose 21.1% m/m against the forecast of a rise of 20.1% and the previous decline of 7%. Expenses, in turn, increased by 4.2% on the expectation of an increase of 4.3% m/m and the previous decline of 1.0%. It should be noted that such a rapid growth in income is the result of cash payments to the population.

Additional support to the dollar was provided by the final value of the consumer confidence index in the US from the University of Michigan: in April the indicator rose to 88.3 points against the forecast of an increase to 87.3 and the previous value of 86.5 points.

The European currency was supported this morning by the statistics on the volume of retail sales in Germany in March: in monthly terms the indicator increased by 7.7% against the forecast of growth of only 3%. The annual rate rose 11% after falling 6.6% in February. At the same time, the indexes of business activity in the manufacturing sectors of the eurozone and Germany for April disappointed the markets, falling short of forecasts.

The United States will also publish PMI in the evening. In addition, there will be data on construction costs and the price paid index. And also the head of the US Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell will make a speech.

[KostiaForexMart]

EUR/USD. May 4, 2021 | The dollar strengthened and returned to the level of 1.20

On Tuesday, the dollar began to recover and reached the level of 1.20. The US currency is supported by a positive fundamental background: high rates of vaccinations in the US, direct payments to the population and easing of restrictions.

The main problem today is that the dollar retains its status as a safe haven currency. Since the beginning of the year, the United States has been ahead of other countries in terms of economic recovery, but now Europe is showing significant progress in vaccinations and plans to ease restrictions. And global growth tends to be more favorable for high beta currencies than safe haven currencies. Therefore, together with the lifting of restrictions, the demand for the euro will return.

Yesterday was published data on business activity in the US manufacturing sector, which turned out to be much worse than forecasted. Economists had expected the index to rise from 64.7 to 65, but in April it fell to 60.7 points. And even these statistics did not allow the dollar to fall. Analysts say the dollar is rising mainly on expectations of a potentially strong Payroll employment report. Today during the day, the EUR/USD pair will moderately rise from the level of 1.20.
 

[KostiaForexMart]

GBP/USD. 06.05 | The pair cannot decide on the direction of movement

The GBP/USD pair on Thursday started to rise to 1.3940 after a two-day flat at 1.3900. Today is rich in various events in the UK: attention should be paid to the elections in Scotland, the results of the meeting of the Bank of England and the publication of important economic reports.

The results of the parliamentary elections in Scotland will determine the holding of a repeated referendum on independence from Great Britain. The victory of the ruling national party will speed up the exit of Scotland from the United Kingdom, but this is unlikely to have a strong impact on the pound rate, since the issue of independence will be resolved for several years.

The meeting of the Bank of England is of no small importance today. The regulator decided to keep the base interest rate at 0.1%, and the volume of asset repurchases from the market – at 895 billion pounds. The redemption of government bonds is 875 billion pounds, and the volume of redemption of corporate bonds remained at 20 billion pounds.

Short-term support for the sterling today was provided by data on business activity in the service sector in April in the UK: the indicator rose to 61.0 against the forecast of growth to 60.1 points. In the US today, it is worth paying attention to the publication of the number of applications for unemployment benefits: the report showed that the number of applications fell better than forecast, to 498 thousand. This gave the US dollar some support, which allowed the GBP/USD pair to return to the 1.39 level.

[KostiaForexMart]

May 07 | USD / CHF technical analysis: H4 chart, Pivot levels

The US dollar against the Swiss franc at today's trading has rewritten the minimum since February 26 at around 0.9057.

Bouncing off the lows, the USD / CHF price is correcting towards the daily pivot level.

The medium-term trend is directed downwards, therefore, upon completion of the correction, it is more likely that a further decline can be predicted, but, most likely, this will happen already next week.

Daily Pivot - 0.9094;
Daily Resistance 1 - 0.9119, DR2 - 0.9169, DR3 - 0.9194;
Daily Support 1 - 0.9044, DS2 - 0.9019, DS3 - 0.8968.

Weekly Pivot - 0.9129;
Weekly Resistance 1 - 0.9180, WR2 - 0.9231, WR3 - 0.9281;
Weekly Support 1 - 0.9078, WS2 - 0.9028, WS3 - 0.8977.

Monthly Pivot - 0.9226.