Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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EUR/USD. December 02, 2019 – Euro continues to drift in the area of lows

At the end of last week the euro soared to 1.1025 after Friday falling to 1.0975. The growth was contributed by data on manufacturing activity in China, which turned out to be better than the expectations of market participants. In particular, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in China's manufacturing sector rose from 51.7 in October to 51.8 in November. Analysts had expected a decline to 51.4 points.

At the same time, the growth of risk appetite is limited by reports that China imposed a number of sanctions against some US non-governmental organizations in response to the adoption of a law supporting protesters in Hong Kong. These measures suggest that the controversy between the US and China are not limited only to trade, and it will not be easy to reach a final agreement.

Today you should pay attention to the release of data on the Index of business activity in the States from ISM (18:00 Moscow time). Actual statistics may support the dollar. In anticipation of the data, the EUR/USD pair will continue to fluctuate slightly above the level of 1.10.

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EUR/USD. December 03, 2019 – Euro approached 1.11

Yesterday the EUR/USD pair unexpectedly increased in price, almost touched the level of 1.1100. Such alignment of forces in the pair was facilitated by the US President’s tweet, in which he charged Brazil and Argentina with weakness of their currencies, and introduced tariffs against export from these two countries. In addition, Trump demanded that the Fed must lower the interest rate at the next meeting.

Additional pressure on the dollar was provided by weak macroeconomic data from the United States: the ISM index of economic conditions in the manufacturing sector in November amounted to 48.1%, while analysts had forecast a figure of 49.2%. In addition, construction costs unexpectedly fell by 0.8%, although analysts had expected an increase of 0.4%.

As a result, the US dollar collapsed across the full spectrum of the Forex market, even in relation to risky assets. The additional negative was caused by the US and Chinese altercations around the human rights situation in Hong Kong. 

However, it should be noted, that macroeconomic data from Germany and the eurozone gave support to the euro. Indices of business activity in industry in November showed growth: in Germany - from 43.8 to 44.1 points, in the eurozone - from 46.6 to 46.9 points. Thus, the euro feels quite confident in the current conditions. During the day the pair will continue to attempt to reach the level of 1.11.

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GBP/USD. December 04, 2019 – British pound updated 7-month high

The British sterling is currently the strongest currency on the market. Paired with the US dollar, the pound managed to rise to the area of 1.3060 (which became a 7-month high), although a week ago, it was trading near the area of 1.28. The current quotation of the pair GBP/USD is 1.3045. 

The currency is getting support provided by several factors. The first is optimism around Brexit. On December 12 in the UK there will be held early parliamentary elections, which will most likely be won by the ruling party led by Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Johnson promises to withdraw Britain from the European Union by January 31, 2020, and the market believes him.

Secondly, the general weakness of the US dollar on world markets allowed the pound to strengthen in the GBP/USD pair and update the high of early May. 

Under current conditions, British sterling will feel confident and further, until December 12th.

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Brent. December 05, 2019 – Oil rose to $63.50 per barrel

Oil prices began to rise after yesterday's industry report from the US Department of Energy. The Department reported a drawdown on crude oil inventories in the United States last week for nearly 5 million barrels per week, which is the most dramatic reduction in oil reserves in the past 12 weeks. As a result, Brent rose in price to $63.50 per barrel.

Today starts a two-day meeting of the OPEC+ monitoring committee in Vienna. Analysts expect participating countries to extend the current deal until June 2020 and not to change the parameters of this deal. It also supports oil prices.

Also today attention should be paid to Saudi Arabia, where Saudi Aramco, the country's national oil company, will announce its IPO offering price. It is noted that the demand for stocks is increased, which means that the company can place actions on the upper price limit.

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EUR/USD. December 06, 2019 – The dollar grows amid strong labor market data

Today the euro began to decline, failing to gain a foothold above the level of 1.11. The currency was pressured by weak data from the eurozone: retail sales in the region in November turned out to be worse than expected – annual indicator grew by only 1.4% against the forecast of 2.7%. German manufacturing orders fell 5.5%, while industrial production decreased 1.7%. Analysts expected a 0.1% increase. As a result, the pair fell to around 1.1065.

The news context on trade talks remains mixed. On the one hand, the United States notes the success of the ongoing negotiations, and on the other, the markets again received information about the disagreements of the sides regarding China's purchase of agricultural products from the United States.

Today's US labor market data supported the dollar: the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector of the country grew by 266 thousand, while analysts predicted an increase only of 180 thousand. As a result, the EUR/USD pair will continue to decline throughout the day.

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EUR/USD. December 10, 2019 – Euro started to grow after the release of data from ZEW

The euro continues to strengthen to the area of 1,11, while market participants are waiting for significant events of this week, concentrated in its second half (Fed and ECB meetings, parliamentary elections in the UK).

News from the front of trade negotiations has recently remained positive. Market players expect that amid the upcoming US elections, Donald Trump is unlikely eager to escalate the trade war and disappoint market participants. Therefore, new import duties on Chinese goods most likely will not be introduced on December 15.

Today, you should pay attention to the publication of the index of economic expectations from ZEW in Germany. Fresh statistics provided visible support to the European currency, since the indicator value has peaked since February 2018. The index of expectations of investors and analysts regarding the German economy in December jumped to 10.7 points from minus 2.1 points in November. Thus, during the day the pair will continue to grow to the area of 1.11.

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EUR/USD. December 11, 2019 – Dollar rises in anticipation of Fed meeting

The euro failed to overcome the 1.1100 level and rolled back to 1.1075. Yesterday, the currency was strongly supported by data on economic expectations from ZEW in Germany. The index of expectations of investors and analysts regarding the German economy in December unexpectedly rose to 10.7 points from -2.1 points in November. The indicator value updated the maximum of February 2018. Experts predicted the growth rate to only 0.3 points.

Today the focus of attention of the market will tend to the meeting of the US Federal Reserve and a press conference by D. Powell. Experts expect the US regulator to leave the key rate unchanged, as well as determine the future course of monetary policy. This can provide strong support for the dollar in the evening. As a result, the pair will continue to decline throughout the day.
 

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GBP/USD. December 12, 2019 – Sterling may rise following the parliamentary elections

Today all market participants are focused on the long-awaited elections to the British Parliament. Voting results are expected not only in the UK, but around the world, as everyone wants to finally find out how the Brexit story ends. Sociological polls have shown that most likely the Tories will win, led by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

If the expectations come true, and the Conservatives get the majority of votes, Johnson will be able to complete the British exit from the EU until January 31, 2020. The first results of the vote will be released tonight, and they will be crucial for the further dynamics of the pound.

Today, the British sterling remains at high levels just below 1.3200. In general, since the British decided to withdraw from the European Union, the currency has come a long way: after the Brexit vote the pound collapsed to 1.1450 from the level of 1.5. If the Conservative Party win, the sterling will continue to rise to an area above 1.32.
 

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GBP/USD. December 16, 2019 – Sterling still strong nearby 1.34

The British sterling continues to demonstrate «bullish» sentiment on Monday, trading at 1.3365. At the end of last week, the pound updated its maximum since April 2018, reaching the mark 1.35. The currency got strong support after the announcement of the results of the parliamentary elections in the UK. As it was expected, the Conservative Party, led by Boris Johnson, won by gaining 368 seats in the Parliament of 650. This result was the best since Margaret Thatcher’s elections.

The growth of the British currency, observed after Tories’ victory, was the result of the completion of a three-year period of political uncertainty in the country. In the near future, the European Commission plans to receive details from the UK under the terms of Brexit.

Today the sterling shows some correctional decline, responding to weak data on business activity for December. PMI manufacturing activity index fell to 47.4 from 48.9 points. However, under the above circumstances, the British currency will continue to remain strong at 1.3400.
 

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GBP/USD. December 17, 2019 – Sterling continues to keep downside

The British currency continues to decline on Tuesday, reaching a support level of 1.3200. Earlier, after the victory of the conservatives in the parliamentary elections in the UK, the sterling managed to update the maximum of May 2018 at the mark 1.35, but quickly lost all positions.

Pressure on the British currency is exerted by weak macroeconomic data. In particular, yesterday's data on business activity showed the sharpest decline since July 2016. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell from the November level of 49.3 to 48.5 points in December, which became a minimum of 41 months. The service sector PMI in December fell from 49.3 to 49 points, having reached its lowest level in nine months. UK manufacturing PMI fell from 48.9 to 47.4 points, which also became the lowest indicator in four months.

Today you should pay attention to the release of data on the British labor market and the speech of the Bank of England head Mark Carney. The weakness of statistical reports may push the regulator to soften monetary policy, that will put further pressure on the sterling.

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EUR/USD. December 18, 2019 – Euro shows weakness

Today the euro keeps showing decrease paired with the dollar, having reached the mark 1.1125. The currency is under pressure of investors' concerns about the situation with Brexit. Earlier British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said, that he intended to introduce the law about country's obligation to leave the European Union in 2020 without the possibility of extending the transition period. This fact again cast doubt on the likelihood of leaving the EU with a deal.

Along with it the US dollar is supported by optimism around trade negotiations between the US and China and by strong macroeconomic data from the United States. Industrial production in November increased by 1.1% against forecasts of an increase of 0.8% and after a decline of 0.9% a month earlier. The number of building permits in November also exceeded forecasts.

Today you should pay attention to Ifo business optimism index for December and Eurozone inflation data for November.

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Brent/USD. December 19, 2019 – Oil stabilized above $66 after data from the US Department of Energy

Oil continues to hold in the area of local highs above the level of $66 per barrel. Brent was supported by yesterday's report from the US Department of Energy. The statistics reflected a decrease in oil reserves by 1 million barrels, while similar data from API a day earlier showed an increase in stocks by 5 million barrels.

The appetite for risky assets remains moderate, as no news has been received from the front of the trade war last days. So, during the day we expect calm trading in the area above $62 per barrel.

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GBP/USD. December 20, 2019 – Sterling plummeted to 1.3000

The sterling continues to decline, reaching the level of 1.3000 on Friday. The pound became the main outsider of the week, collapsing from the level of 1.35. The driver of the fall became the statements by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, revived fears of a tough and disorganized Brexit.

Additional pressure on the pound was provided by weak data on retail sales in the UK, which showed an unexpected decline in November at the fastest pace for the year (-0.6%). On an annualized basis, retail sales growth slowed to the level of April 2018 (1%).

As a result of weak data reflecting the detrimental influence of Brexit on the British economy, the Bank of England left rates unchanged at 0.75%. Moreover, market participants expect the regulator to begin a cycle of easing monetary policy at the beginning of next year.

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EUR/USD. December 23, 2019 – Euro continues to weaken

On past Friday the EUR/USD pair fell to the area of 1.1050, reacting to the strengthening of the US dollar in the market and the decline of the EUR/GBP pair (to 0.85). The dollar got support from U.S. GDP data for the III quarter, which showed accelerated growth in the US economy. Gross domestic product increased 2.1% year on year. Additional support was provided by data on income and expenses: in November personal income grew by 0.5% (the forecast was 0.3%). Personal expenses increased by 0.4% (the indicator coincided with the forecast).

At 16:30, you should pay attention to the publication of data on the volume of orders for durable goods in the US in November. Experts expect the figure to drop from 1.5% m/m to 0.6% m/m. Since this indicator is an important leading indicator of production trends and investment activity, these data can put strong pressure on the dollar. At 18:00 no less important publication is expected – a report on the volume of home sales in the primary market in November.

We remind you that tomorrow the exchanges will work on a shortened schedule, and the full-fledged work of the sites will resume on Thursday, after the Christmas holidays. Today, in anticipation of macroeconomic news, the pair will continue to weaken to the area of 1.1060.
 

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USD/CAD. December 24, 2019 – Canadian dollar continues to decline

Today the Canadian dollar is showing a decline to the mark 1.3165 after the release of statistics on Canadian GDP. According to recent data, the country's economy slowed down by 0.1% in October.

Over the past few weeks the «canadian» has shown steady growth, having managed to reach the level of 1.31. The looney strengthened, despite the weak data on retail sales (-1.2% versus 0.5%) and employment (-71.2K against the forecast of 10.0K). However, currency growth was stopped by a strong support level of 1.31.

Experts believe that in the near future it will be difficult for the Canadian dollar to continue to strengthen. The Bank of Canada is still satisfied with the current monetary policy, however, in 2020, the regulator may begin to introduce mitigation measures if Canada's economic indexes continues to deteriorate.

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Brent/USD. December 25, 2019 – Oil reached $67.20 per barrel

Brent quotes continue to update highs. This morning, the price of «black gold» rose to $67.20 per barrel. The growth factor was positive news from the front of trade negotiations between the US and China: US President D. Trump said, that the sides had finally approved the first phase of the trade deal. And now they are finalizing and translating the necessary documentation to sign the agreement.

In addition, yesterday the American Petroleum Institute (API) published a report according to which US crude oil inventories fell by almost 8 million barrels per week. Analysts expected a decline of 2 million.

Today we should not expect significant dynamics in the oil market, since most of the European and American sites are closed due to the celebration of Christmas.

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GBP/USD. December 26, 2019 – Sterling slightly declining from 1.30

The level of 1.3000 managed to restrain the British «bulls», not allowing the pound to gain a foothold above this mark. The current quotation of the GBP/USD pair is 1.2960.

The news background is mixed today. On the one hand, the negative dynamics of the debt market is exerting pressure on sterling, where the yield on UK government bonds is declining relative to its counterparts from the USA and Germany.

On the other hand, the rise of oil prices may provide local support to the pound. Brent climbed to a high of $67.50 per barrel after the release of statistics from the American Petroleum Institute, according to which US oil inventories fell four times more than analysts had expected.

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EUR/USD. December 27, 2019 – Euro is growing rapidly

The euro today confidently approached the level 1,1150. The currency began to strengthen yesterday, responding to the continued optimistic mood of market participants regarding the settlement of the US-Chinese trade conflict. The leaders of the USA and China confirmed that the first phase of the trade deal had already been concluded, and in early 2020 the parties will hold a ceremony of signing the agreement.

The US dollar received some support yesterday after the release of data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. The indicator fell to 222K, which turned out to be slightly better than analysts' forecasts (224K). The previous indicator was fixed at 235K. However, this factor was not enough for the dollar to withstand the rapidly growing euro.

Moreover, amid a probable recovery in global economic growth in 2020, the demand for protective assets may decline, which may put some pressure on the US dollar. Today we will observe the recovery of the European currency from the level of 1,1100 to the area above 1,1150.

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EUR/USD. December 30, 2019 – Euro recovered to 1.1200

The European currency continues to win back the losses of the last week, reaching the level of 1.1200. The US dollar is under pressure: on Friday, all G10 currencies and most emerging markets currencies showed growth in tandem with the dollar, and today this trend continues.

Optimism at global sites is fueled by expectations of the imminent signing of the first phase of a trade agreement between the US and China. In anticipation of the New Year, market activity is small, and the news background remains neutral, so the topic of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing will be the main factor influencing the EUR/USD pair in the near future.

The only thing that you should pay attention to is the secondary data on the American economy: in the evening hours the business activity index (PMI) in Chicago and the business activity index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas will be published. Experts suggest a slight increase in indicators. If the forecasts are confirmed, the dollar will receive some support and will not allow the euro to gain a foothold above the level of 1.12.

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EUR/USD. December 31, 2019 – Euro is confidently approaching 1.1240

The euro continues to grow, breaking the level of 1.1200. Today, in anticipation of the New Year holidays, trading activity will remain low, since most of the world markets will be closed.

Support for the European currency continues to be provided by positive information on the US and China trade deal. Representatives of China reported that the leaders of two countries took a phone talk, and discussed the details of the first part of the trade agreement. It is noted, that the signing of the deal will most likely take place in the first week of January 2020.

Such a decrease in trade tension has a positive effect on the entire global economy, which, in turn, will increase the demand for risky assets and support the «eurobulls» in the near future.

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Brent/USD. January 07, 2020

Brent crude on Tuesday shows a correctional decline from the level of $70 per barrel. The current quote of the asset is $68.40.

The focus of the market is still the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could turn into the open military confrontation between the US and Iran. This, in turn, may create a shortage of supply on the global oil market due to interruptions in supplies from Iran and Iraq – countries that produce more than 30% of all hydrocarbons in the Middle East region.

Iran’s response to the assassination of Iran’s military leader Qassem Suleimani at Baghdad’s airport will inevitably lead to further intensification of the military conflict, which will allow Brent crude to return to an upward trend above $70 per barrel.

Additional support for oil can be provided by data on changes in oil reserves in the United States from API and the US Department of Energy. Analysts expect a decrease in reserves of 4 million barrels.

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USD/CAD. January 08, 2020 – Canadian dollar remains at local highs

Oil continues to trade at local highs ($69 per barrel), supporting all commodity currencies, including the Canadian dollar. At the same time, pressure on currencies is exerted by risk aversion amid escalation of the military conflict between the US and Iran. The current CAD quote is 1.3000.

It should be noted that the Canadian dollar is the least vulnerable to risk aversion, since the Canadian economy mainly has support of the US market. This fact allows looney quotes to stabilize in the area of local maximums.

In addition, a further increase in oil prices can completely neutralize the risk aversion factor, an this will allow the USD/CAD pair to continue to decline to 1.3150.

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Fundamental analysis of Brent. January 09, 2020

Brent crude oil failed to stay in the region above $70, and today we see quotes decline to around $65.50 per barrel. Pressure on prices was exerted by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East: despite Tehran's attacks on US military bases in Iraq, Donald Trump refrained from further retaliatory measures.

The American president said that he was against further escalation of the military conflict, noting his intention to confine himself to new economic barriers in the form of tougher sanctions against Iran.

In addition to the Middle East conflict, a report from the US Department of Energy on changes in crude oil reserves acted as a factor of pressure on oil prices. According to the latest data, oil reserves rose 1.2 million barrels, after falling for three consecutive weeks. Experts predicted a reduction in reserves of 3.5 million barrels.

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EUR/USD. January 10, 2020 – The dollar remains strong at 1.11

The EUR/USD pair remains stable just below 1.1100. The ending week was rich in publications on the American labor market. On Wednesday, data on the number of jobs in the private sector from ADP came out, which reflected an increase of 202 thousand against a growth a month earlier by 124 thousand. The forecast assumed an increase of 140 thousand.

Yesterday, data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits for the week were presented: the number of Americans first applying for benefits fell to a minimum level of 5 weeks. The indicator decreased by 9 thousand – to 214 thousand.

Today, attention should be paid to the release of statistics on the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP). Experts believe that the indicator grew in December by 266 thousand after an increase of 162 thousand in November. Average hourly wages are expected to increase by 0.2% in monthly terms.

Thus, such strong statistics providing significant support to the US currency will allow the dollar to consolidate below the level of 1.11.

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EUR/USD. January 13, 2020 – Dollar is under pressure from weak labor market data

The euro is showing some growth at the beginning of the new trading week. The current quotation of the EUR/USD pair is 1.1115. The dollar was pressured last week by the publication of weak US labor market data for December. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector last month rose only 145 thousand against the forecast of expansion by 162 thousand. A similar indicator for November was fixed at around 256 thousand.

The average hourly earnings, according to current statistics, increased in December by only 0.1% mom. A month earlier, the indicator rose 0.3% m/m, a similar increase was expected now. At the same time, the unemployment rate remained stable at 3.5%, as predicted.

Thus, the dollar responded with a decline in this data. During the day, we do not expect sharp price spikes; the pair will continue to fluctuate slightly in the region above 1.11.