Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 20, 2017

 

The British pound persisted to move at a fixed rate but it is the opposite to the euro currency because of the news from German coalition talks. The pound has taken advantage of the low dollar as it rose to 1.32 level. However, it is still to be observed if this move higher.

 

The latest news from Germany will most likely affect the British pound as well as other countries of the Eurozone with the ongoing Brexit talk. Thinking about it, the current situation facing Merkel in Germany may be similar with U.K. Prime minister Theresa May as she also fights her own battle. However, it should be considered that any changes to cause uncertainty would most likely affect the Brexit as well. This will not be favorable to Germany or U.K. Nevertheless, both countries would want a good transition and come to a conclusion that would be beneficial for both ends.

 

Any uncertainty in Germany would slow down the talks and look forward to an agreement which could complicate more things further and be disadvantageous for the pound in long-term. Aggressive leaders are best suited in the current situation as they are looking for a conclusion. However, some domestic concerns are hampering the process which gets their attention. For short term, the British pound could have some gains because of uncertainty from Germany. However, this could have a negative impact on the U.K. for the long term if this situation is prolonged.

 

For today, the British pound seems to be put under pressure as it depreciates against euro during the London session. There is no major news from the U.S. or from the U.K. in other times of the day. Consequently, the consolidation with a bearish tone is anticipated to take place today.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 20, 2017

 

The EUR/USD were pressured by reports about failed coalition talks in Germany. The pair was having a smooth direction since last week as the market may be unaware of the unfavorable incidents, which shocked the markets upon the emergence of the news earlier on Monday. Moreover, this pushed the single European currency lower after its strengthened during the trading course last week.

 

The news that was released in the morning reports about the negotiations of Merkel’s parties in forming a coalition, as the FPD agreed to withdraw from the talks considering the unfeasible formation of the 4-way coalition at this particular moment. Hence, this caused trouble towards the entire government since Merkel would likely put all his effort to close a deal with other parties.

Germany is regarded to be the bedrock of the whole European region due to its well-established economy and government with the leadership of Merkel. Since her position is currently in jeopardy coupled with the ongoing Brexit, the scenario seems to have chaotic results that should be avoided. As the election results were issued, it disappointed Merkel as she failed to gain the victory among the majority which further exacerbates the situation.

 

As expected, this caused the euro to sell off and the EURUSD currently moved down towards the 1.1730 level as of this writing. Further selling is anticipated upon the development of the story and during the London trading session. ECB President Mario Draghi will have several speeches scheduled for this day, however, it appears that Draghi is in doubt to discuss monetary policy and was surprised by the current events in Germany

 

The lows of the range in the 1.16 mark is projected to be under pressure throughout the trading course.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 21, 2017

 

The British currency had slightly whipsawed amid the daytime trading and closed the day with an unchanged position which appeared to be hardly affected by the subsequent events happened in Germany. The United Kingdom is currently dealing with ongoing issues on economy and politics, as the pound could possibly be swayed. Moreover, there are more concerns that the country needs to deal with instead of other matters related to the European region.

 

The sterling could possibly get a short-term and limited benefit because of the problems in Germany. It could also soften the German position as well as the EU leaders due to Brexit talks, however, brought temporary relief for the team of PM Theresa May. Nevertheless, whatever kind of benefit they could acquire from this is expected to be short-lived due to its endless process and either side will move towards on their planned position due to domestic concerns from their countries, respectively. Eventually, the market might realize this which could be the reason that after the initial sway, the GBP was able to adjust based on reality and closed the day nearly unchanged.

 

The economic data from the United Kingdom remains choppy which would likely trigger concerns for the  Bank of England. Meanwhile, the struggle of PM May to deal with her political woes continues which shifted her focus from the Brexit. Considering the events in Germany, the process became dull and complicated which is unacceptable for both sides.

Ultimately, there are no major releases from the United States but Britain will have its inflation report hearings which should be monitored in order to have a clearer picture for the economy and inflation that could possibly have a large impact towards the timeline of the next rate increase.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 22, 2017

 

The GBP/USD pair remains trading in a tight manner since yesterday, which is similar to the market’s activity. After dealing with high volatility on Monday, the traders were able to prepare themselves for a greater battle beforehand which was actually marked by the ranges that reduced over time. While the market is currently waiting for future events that will take place.

According to projections, this week would be a busy time for pound traders due to some positive actions and sudden stabilization of the sterling amid the issues on domestic politics and other foreign concerns in the wake of uncertainties in Germany.

None of these were able to bring an impact against the GBP so far, as the British currency continuously trading in a robust manner for this week. This is expected to be put to test for today due to some major economic releases scheduled from the United States and the United Kingdom.

 

In Britain, the autumn forecast statement to be issued during the late London session will essentially provide assumptions regarding the current status of the economy and will also give future events of the economy. This data is annually published which could also possibly provide hints about the considerations of the Bank of England regarding inflation and rate increase in the first half of 2018. Hence, any signs of hawkishness within this report is expected to move the sterling to the 1.34 level.

 

In the American session later will be releasing the FOMC minutes that is highly anticipated by the market in order to determine the Fed’s decision towards rate hike next month. There is high chance that the Federal Reserve will allow the raise in December, however, the markets are waiting for some confirmation signal along with the timeline of the rate increase. The pound will experience a very volatile day.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 23, 2017

 

The EUR/USD pair anticipated to have fluctuations from the market but turned as the FOMC minutes is anticipated for the incoming long weekend. There is an active trading activity in the market instead of the anticipated fewer ones. The dollar has lost its leverages and was moving slower over the course of the day. The trend only gained a better traction after the release of the

FOMC minutes.  

 

The EUR/USD pair moves higher than the area of 1.1750 in a subtle manner with dimmed the activity that happens prior to the release of the FOMC minutes. There is not much anticipated from the market since the Fed is presumed to maintain its current stance, most especially that the rate hike in December will most likely push through. The euro moved slightly higher at the beginning of the day and proceed to move up during the course of the day.

 

The FOMC minutes gave a dovish tone which is not surprising. The rate in December has almost already priced in the market although the market is more focused on the possibility of a further rate hike. There are some members who think that the rate hike has not reached the target mark which could lead to another rate hike but it is also unlikely unless the inflation has improved along with the incoming data. Consequently, the dovishness of the dollar resulted in an increase of the pair towards the area of 1.18 which is seen to hover steadily above this as of the moment.

 

Today is the start long weekend in the US on account of Thanksgiving and there will be no economic news anticipated to be released from the U.S. as well as from the Eurozone. Traders should anticipate consolidation in the trend with a bullish tone for the rest of the day.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 27, 2017

 

The British pound is trying to make use of the situation which has been surging in the past few days as the dollar has weakened. This began after the FOMC minutes released a surprising dovish statement that supported the GBP/USD pair and rallies since then. This is yet to be observed if this rally will last.

 

Most of the traders are ambivalent of this uptrend since this happened due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. After the holiday, a correction was observed given that traders are going back following a long weekend and investors are gaining some profits where it makes the minutes not a dovish sentiment. This could result in buying of the dollars which would further induce correction in trading.

 

Other than that, Brexit is in a difficult situation right now and if anything happens, a massive breakthrough is anticipated in the talks in the few weeks to come. There are some investors who assume that the U.K. would choose to cancel the deal if they will not benefit from it. If this is the case, then Britain would be on a losing end for the economy. Hence, the pound would most likely continue its rally with the ongoing matter on Brexit.

 

There is no major news from the U.K. or the U.S anticipated to come out today. Consequently, it is likely to have some consolidation during the first half of the day. There may be some correction for the day when traders go back to the U.S. from their holidays.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 6, 2017

 

The euro major pair declined in the past 24 hours but with unknown reason. The euro has a weak overall trend in the market and there is lesser strength in the dollar. The movement has been movings steadily which was sufficient for the pair to decline lower than yesterday’s trading. It reached the level as low as 1.18 prior to rally as it trades higher than the 1.1820 at the moment.

 

The market seems to be waiting on the sidelines as traders are observing the movement, particularly of the dollar. The rate hike will happen soon that causes last-minute uncertainty whether this will be pushed through this month. Also, concerns regarding the tax reform bill are also being considered if this will passed by the Senate which could take some time and traders have to wait for the next movement.

 

Being the last month of the year, traders should be patient whether this will further develop amid holidays. This adds more pressure to traders to be careful in betting large positions and better to be patient before deciding which way to go. As a result, the dollar is now moving steadily as the euro continues to decline at a slower pace since many currency pairs are attempting to maintain within the borders of the trading range that has been known in the past few months.

 

There is no major news from the eurozone except for the ADP employment report from the U.S. This is prior to the release of the NFP for the week. Pressure will still be present in trading this pair as the market waits for the development of the news.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 18, 2017

 

The British pound trades in a strong manner since the day started even despite the lack of fundamental developments. Also, there are not much economic releases on Friday which allow the consolidation and ranging for the price action within that day. At the same time, there are reports about increasing support for the US tax reform bill during the American trading session, it further indicates that the bill is expected to be passed amid the course of the current week. Hence, this enables the US dollar to grow and pushed the GBP/USD pair downwards during Friday’s late session. When the bill is approved, the strength of the greenbacks is expected to resume in the near term, until the year ends. In turn, the Cable pair will continue to be under pressure throughout this period, however, the level of impact remains unclear.

 

On weekend, British Prime Minister Theresa May reiterated her determination to push through the Brexit process and she further stated her willingness to deal with it in the short term concerning the payment that the United Kingdom need to settle along with the possible trade access. These two factors are the most important elements to consider but the UK and the market seem worried about these. The process appears to be a little bit of delay but the encouraging speech delivered by PM May successfully give a slight raise to the sterling earlier this morning.

 

Ultimately, there is no major news from the US or the UK for the rest of the day while some consolidation and ranging are expected much for today. Moreover, volatility might get a slight boost upon the onset of the US session and further updates with regards the tax bill.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 20, 2017

 

The GBP/USD currency pair was able to move ahead of the American dollar, as the USD lower in price amid smooth approval process of the tax bill. The passage was projected to support the dollar to increase, however, the effect was completely different. The market’s reaction remains uncertain not until the bill is already passed through in one of the US Houses and waiting for the Senate approval. However, there could be some delay due to procedural problems which could possibly place some pressure on the greenbacks that could further lead to uncertainty. As expected, the tax reform bill will be enacted by the Senate on a very tight margin and further requires the President’s signature to seal in the law. The whole scenario would likely be completed within this week, hence, the volatility in the USD should keep going until it happens.

 

The Brexit process does not have much improvement over this week and it is predicted to continue until New Year. Definitely, there will be some strong development in the process since the leaders on both sides clearly stated about the completion of a deal which may take a matter of time prior accomplishing the agreement. This notion seems to provide support for the pound in the past couple of weeks.

 

Ultimately, BOE Governor Mark Carney will have his speech but the impact to the market is predicted to be minimal. The market trend for today would likely be led by the USD and tax bill legislation. It is believed that the greens should gain more strength in the short and medium term in order to maintain the GBPUSD active.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 21, 2017

 

The euro paired against the U.S. dollar still dominates the market as it positions strongly, although the volatile is starts to lessen come to the end of the week. The volatility would be much more minimize by the end of the week with the year about to end.

 

The U.S. tax reform bill was successfully passed that require Trump to seal it after which is anticipated soon. This is considered as an achievement for Trump as everyone in the team worked hard for this. It would also be beneficial for the large companies and gain more profit which would bring in more jobs in the U.S.

 

Trump has stabilized his position at the top which would now shift his attention to other bills such as the healthcare reform bill. However, the stock market and foreign exchange of the U.S. dollar did not have that much vigor, as the dollar is starting to decline recently compared to its position last week. It has been all over the market which supported the euro instead.

 

The EUR/USD pair was seen to touch on the 1.19 level but moved after into a consolidated yesterday. Trades are being traded just currently below the said level. When it comes to news, the final GDP data from the U.S. is anticipated today but there will be no other economic news to be published from the Eurozone. Hence, the trading range is presumed to tighten especially since the holidays are approaching.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 26, 2017

 

The euro against the U.S. dollar started with a tight trading week in a facile environment in consideration of the current market situation. Majority of traders are on a vacation this Christmas holiday season and the New Year whereas most of them would not working. This would result to lower volatility and liquidity that would limit the range of trading for this week.

 

There is also not much economic data on the calendar with fewer fundamentals in the next days to come. The steady dollar was supported by the tax reform bill, which was recently passed by the Senate and signed by the U.S. President. This would benefit m0st of the companies with lots of tax benefits which is as much as important to Trump and his team. At the same time, this is foreseen to improve the labor market and boost the economy in the succeeding years.

 

Hence, the dollar gained a short-term boost from the bill which will most likely be in effect for this week. The euro is being traded in a right range with minor consolidation in the past few months. Although, the fundamental new was not enough to successfully break the trading range.

It is yet to be discovered where the trend will range and if it is sufficient to sustain the pair within its range until January.

 

For today, there is not much economic news that is anticipated to be released from the eurozone or from the U.S. It is holidays in most part of Europe, which could result to tight trading range and consolidation throughout the day.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 27, 2017

 

It was a holiday in the majority of the places in Europe, including the U.K. that makes it not surprising if the pound persisted to consolidate and traded within a tight range for the most part of trading yesterday.  The GBP/USD pair falls within a tight range since there is few major economic news.

 

It will not be surprising to have lesser volatility and liquidity this holiday season. At the same time, there is not much placing of trades and more on profit-taking in the past week, which can be seen mostly in the smaller market such as bitcoin. Although, it was not that obvious for pound despite there is a bigger market that is why grabbing the opportunity of any selling of this pair prior to holidays is relevant.

 

Come the second week of January, both liquidity and volatility will most likely gain momentum. Until then, traders should get ready for choppiness within a range near the end of the year. The market has reopened following a long weekend yet, there is still fewer traders this week since most still wanted to extend their vacation until New Year. Hence, consolidation of the pair within a tight range will persist in the next few days.

 

When it comes to data the Conference board’s Consumer confidence data from the U.S. is anticipated to be released today but this would not bring much volatility in the market. There is no major economic news from the U.K. Thus, there will be low trading and slow movement in the market for the rest of the day.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 16, 2018

 

There is a hint of bullishness in yesterday’s trading session of the pound since there is no fundamental news to affect the market aside from the bank of the holiday in the U.S. As a result, the pound bulls have become relax in trading. Most likely, this is one of the reasons why the pair has been steady in the past few days but failed to break the level of 1.38 amid the weakness of the dollar.

 

Other than that, it could possibly be because of a big news expected to come this week, particularly the inflation data and retail sales data. Traders and investors anticipate the data prior to positioning themselves to any direction. The incoming data from the U.K. came out stronger which brought choppiness to trading while others came in weak, which has brought further uncertainty to the Brexit negotiations and affect the U.K. economy.

 

Yet, the pound was able to take advantage of euro strengthening and the weakening of the dollar. Although, this may not last for a long time. More importantly, the pound is beginning to gain momentum to move higher regardless of its condition. Also, rate hikes from the U.K. are also becoming an issue after its one rate hike last year. The succeeding hikes are deemed to be more important and the central bank has to be certain on its support actions from last year to boost the U.K. economy and confidence of investors.

 

There is no major news from the U.S. for today but the U.S. is presumed to return to the market following their long weekend holiday. On the other end, the inflation from the U. K. is highly anticipated later this day as it will have a significant insight on the movement of the market and give a hint on which direction does the GBP/USD pair will go.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 18, 2018

 

There is choppiness in trading the EUR/USD pair and continues its trading between 1.22 and 1.23 without no specific direction yet. Yesterday, the pair moved higher in the first half of the day, which will most likely favor the dollar. However, it shifted by the end of the day when the dollar has recovered and became stronger.

 

The euro has been gaining momentum in the past week although the euro rallied against the dollar in the previous month, which was influenced by the decline of the dollar while the euro became stronger. It was only in the past week that the euro started to strengthen independently due to the possibility of ECB tapering and completion of the quantitative easing by the end of the year. This largely influenced the euro as it rose higher and has most likely continued during the first half of yesterday. It reached the level of 1.23 and established a beeline on the trend.  

 

Yet, this was reversed during the second half of the day as the ECB was thrown into a disarray following the quick rise of the euro and should be brought down through statements and confirmation of the QE to return to normal levels. It clearly shows that their position would lead to termination of the QE, which was further supported by the incoming data. Although the central would rather strengthen the euro slowly. Thus, this supported the euro and slid down while the dollar was able to grow during the U.S. trading session and further pushed the price lower than 1.22 as of the moment.

 

For today, there are is no major news from the U.S. or the eurozone, which will most likely continue the choppiness for the day. Support is found in the area of 1.2180 then move further towards 1.21.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 22, 2018

 

The euro is being traded steadily since morning today. It seems that it weakened during Friday and it was able to support the level of 1.22 following the rebound to the support area and soared higher which continues until today. There has been major news from the U.S. and the eurozone which would bring volatility in the market.

 

Although the volatility present was insufficient to push the pair in either direction and stayed within a tight range between 1.22 and 1.23 over the past few weeks. There is a risk for a government closure as the bill has been passed which was blocked in the Senate through suffrage. It is anticipated that there will be an interim bill which will occur during the U.S. session. Nevertheless, this would have an effect on the dollar amid the various problems the U.S. encounter in the past few years.

 

This would be problematic for the Trump administration, which is not surprising. There are reports where the debate between Merkel and SPD party would continue looking for a coalition for short-term. This would keep the euro buoyed up during this period of time. There is also a press conference by the end of the week which is anticipated by the market on the decision of ECB.

 

For today, there are no major news from the U.S or the eurozone, which is already anticipated to happen in the second half of January. Although, there is various economic news to be reconsidered on either side, which would induce the volatility at bay.

[Andrea ForexMart]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: January 24, 2018

 

The Australian currency slightly declined amid Monday’s trading session and moved lower at the 0.7950 region. The rebound on short-term charts are expected along with the resumption of the consolidation period under the major level. A break over the 0.80 zone will enable the market to move upwards or impose a  “buy-and-hold” sentiment. However, creating a gap on top of the 0.81 region would indicate a  “buy-and-hold” tone with some kind of aggressiveness.

 

Usually, the gold market is needed in order for the AUD/USD to strengthen its move as well as to break out to the upside direction. It is expected that this situation will continue. Moreover, the gold markets drifted sideways aimed to hit the market in the near-term, but there is some support below which will trigger buyers to push again to the upside sooner or later. If this happens, the 0.78 area could possibly be the main contention area and short-term selling opportunity will hold up in that level. While a break down below there would hit the overall trend but this has low chance to happen with 10% of probability.

 

Expect for some massive volatility but there is an attempt at forming an attractive base in order to drive higher. It should be noted that the market will advance higher in the future but it should go along with gold.

[Andrea ForexMart]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: January 25, 2018

 

The Kiwi dollar broke out to upside amid the trading session yesterday, reaching the higher level of 0.74 which is close to the top of the general consolidation area in the longer term and extends to the 0.75 region. The 0.68 below is the lowest area of the largest consolidation zone which means higher price level. However, the American currency is obviously struggling and it remains to be seen for any upward movements. While pull backs could possibly offer value.

 

A break on top of the 0.75 handle would enable the market to edged higher or an attempt to reach the 0.7750 or 0.80 level. The volatility is projected to continue and the short-term pullback will arrive sooner or later. It is advised not to get attracted in selling due to factor against the US dollar sentiment. Market players should also take focus on commodity markets and the overall risk appetite for this helps gauge the next probable movement of the New Zealand currency. This is the expected event in the longer-term correlation and the Kiwi together with the commodities should ramp up, this will have higher chance to happen if the “soft commodities”  rallied. In addition to it, shorting could completely change the sentiment of the Forex market.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 29, 2018

 

The British pound against the U.S. dollar has been declining in the past few days as the dollar strengthens, which seems to be the focus at the present time. Following the comments of Trump, the dollar is steadfast due to the positive economic data in the U.S. This resulted in a reversal of profit for the dollar.

 

The dollar has been behind since the middle of December and the pound has been one of the strong contenders for this period of time. It gained more than 800 pips against the greenback. There are indications of exhaustion and weakness for the pair. However, it is not just the weakened dollar that buoyed up the pair, the strong pound along with all the soft Brexit plans at the end of the talks.

 

This supported the pound to rise across markets, especially against the dollar which has been weak recently. However, besides the rhetorics from Trump, there is an increasing expectation for the new Fed chief Powell to take his post, as well as strong incoming data that would strengthen the dollar and induce Fed for rate hikes. The center of attention will be on the dollar in the next few days which is also anticipated to persist for a short period of time.

 

There is no major report anticipated from the U.S. or from the U.K. today, which is not surprising as it is the first day of the week. However, since the end of the month is approaching, a lot of flows is already expected and trades to be positioned prior the new month which would bring volatility to the pound. This is likely to persist in the next few days since the end of the month is near. Pressure will be eminent in trading but support will be in the area of 1.40.  

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 31, 2018

 

Yesterday, it was forecasted that the British pound major pair will find it support in the level of 1.40 and it was anticipated to the line dividing the bulls and the bears. This happened as the price plunged down towards the area of 1.40 and further down for a short period of time before bouncing upward again.

 

Buying and the rebound of the pair were strong which resulted in an upward trend of the pair towards the area of 1.41. The trade stays beyond this level as of the moment. The volume of purchases indicates the strong presence of buyers. Nonetheless, it is essential for traders to keep in mind the end of the month is near and the prices are likely to be influenced by the month-end flows and any move at this period of time, which should be not be overlooked by traders.

 

Although, fundamental factors did not strongly affect the pair, as well as economically,  in the past few days which is already anticipated at the end of the month is approaching. These activities are moves largely are not part of the overall trend, which indicates that money flows have a bigger impact more than everything else. Hence, it is significant to wait on the sidelines and observe as this kind of trend will persist throughout the day since today is the last day of the month.

 

Regarding the economic news, ADP National Employment Report from the U.S. is anticipated to be released today but none from the United Kingdom. The ADP data is considered as a prerequisite to the NFP data, which will be published on Friday. Traders should anticipate for a strong data to keep their expectations for a rate hike from the Federal Reserve at a faster rate in the succeeding months. In general, the market is hoping for three rate hike for the year but a positive outcome through high figures on reports are necessary.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 19, 2018

 

The single European currency and the British pound shared the same fate on Friday, as it showed high volatility during the first half of the day due to the weakening of the US dollar. While in the afternoon, the strength of the American currency prevailed which helped regain the profits of the sterling of the past few days. It further helped the GBP/USD pair to end the weak in a sluggish approach which indicates correction in the following days.

 

The pound was secured because of the dollar instability and pushed the Cable pair to reach the 1.38 zone until the psychologically important level of 1.40. Briefly, the pair moved away from any danger for good and the pound bulls attempt to stabilize the momentum in continuing the upward movement in the near term.

 

As the decline of the dollar does not have enough economic data or fundamentals to support it, the rebound in the US currency did the same. This resulted in the downturn of the pound, pushing through the 1.41 mark and traded underneath the 1.40 area for a short period of time. Subsequently, the pair successfully closed the week above the 1.40 level. As of this writing, the Cable pair continued trading on top of that region and the price level is expected to remain on that point, relative to the bulls and bears. In case the pair remained steady above 1.40, the bulls will take control which would likely to be seen in the coming weeks.

 

Ultimately, there is no major news from the United Kingdom while there is a bank holiday in the United States today. It is safe to say that consolidation and ranging are possible while market players anticipate for bigger investors to show up its intentions and start to move in a certain trend in order to tag along. It is believed that the USD will gain strength in the medium term.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 26, 2018

 

The euro against the British pound broke lower than the Friday trading session and reach lower than the level of 0.88. There is a massive support around the area with a lot of noise in the long-term.  

 

The presence of noise will most likely persist with the headlines as the result of negotiations between Brussels and London which is likely to influence the pair. At the same time, traders should anticipate for volatility. Looking at the weekly chart, the pair ranges 300-pips and it will remain for some time until there is a definite proposition for the negotiation. The market should anticipate for this to continue in a while.

 

Traders could utilize in accordance to the stochastic oscillator as they will be trading back and forth in short-term. There is also a probability for negativity with the level of 0.87 in the floor below. The closer this level can be reached, it is wise to buy in this market and will be the focus on this move. Traders could sell at some point and volatility is likely to persist unless it turns around higher than the level of 0.8840. Hereinafter, buying is possible and continues to be volatile. However, if you are not strong enough and focus on the consolidation of the area and a lot of opportunities to gain profit in a well-defined rectangle.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 27, 2018

 

The euro against the U.S. dollar has been trading closely on either side at the level of 1.23 as the market presumes the pair to move further.

 

The EUR/USD pair is moving within a tight range in the past 24 hours which is already anticipated in Monday trading session. Low volatility is not surprising in the current market condition. Traders are likely to position themselves for this week on Mondays which causes low volatility.  

 

Similarly, trading remained the same despite the speech of ECB President Draghi yesterday. The speech met the expectations with him saying positively on the growth of the economy in the eurozone. He is recognized to be dovish but the fact remains of the steady growth of the economy as reflected in the incoming data and remains positive in the past few months. This has preserved the euro to keep afloat in the past 24 hours although the movements have been very minimal.

 

The market is also anticipated to gain volatility and liquidity as the end of the month is approaching. At the same time, price fluctuations to be inundated by trade positioning and monthly end flow. Options are also about to expire in the upcoming days, which will keep the market busy on particular price range.  

 

The market will probably focus on the dollar with the new Fed chief, Jerome Powell, to testify and engage the market waiting for signals on monetary policies and future rate hikes in the next few months. As for the economic data, both the durable goods data and the trade balance data from the U.S. will be published and if it did not meet expectations, the dollar is likely to roll downward.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 6, 2018

 

The EUR/USD pair constantly trading in a strong manner as it moves away from the election results in Italy. The focus remains to be on the dollar weakening felt across the markets. It is somewhat surprising for those who expected that the Italian election will bring an impact towards the euro area but the results of further led concerns of the EU leaders.

 

Italy is the third biggest economy in the European region and the election results indicate the increasing anti-establishment votes. This event is common from all over the countries especially from the United States to Asia. Hence, this should be one of the main concerns of the Euro officials since this kind of trend may grow continually which could hurt the euro and its existence in the following years. However, this does not necessarily mean that the euro is free from any burden while traders appear to be happy about the maintained current situation. This the reason behind the move of the euro/dollar pair through the 1.2350 level as of this writing

 

Ultimately, there are no important economic news or data from the EU or the US for this day but this reflects some ranging and consolidation in the near-term. Also, the markets anticipate further set of data in the second half of the week from the United States, indicating a short-term trend for the greenbacks.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 7, 2018

 

The British pound resumes its uptrend amid the weakened dollar across all market in the past 24 hours. Although the increase was not as high as it can be, it was able to move steadily which has assisted the British currency to recover from its lows and have a steady uptrend over the past few days. These gave the investors more confidence during the said period of time.

 

Meanwhile, the sterling pound has been moving steadily and further boosted by the lack of economic data. The ongoing Brexit negotiation following the set plan also supports the pound. Euro leaders have been busy with their domestic concerns and at the same time, rumors and commentaries about them have also lessened At the same time, the Brexit negotiation has assisted the dollar to move steadily.

 

The dollar got behind against other currencies following the resignation of Trump’s economic advisor, John Cohn, which is not favorable for the president and his team as they have had some difficulties in handling situation in the past few months. On the other hand, this is advantageous for the dollar as the overall market which is the reason for the dollar’s decline during this period of time.

 

The market is getting ready for the slew of data in the upcoming days with a new month has begun. The ADP  employment report expected to be released today will hint at the results of another incoming data of Friday. If the data came out weakly, this would further push the GBP/USD pair towards the area of 1.40.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 21, 2018

 

The British pound against the U.S. dollar had a downward correction due to the pressure from the dollar which has been strengthening across markets yesterday. The pair positions just over the area of 1.40 and there seems to be no threat for the bulls but it is still uncertain who will lead the trend.

 

There will be high volatility in the market with the expectation of the FOMC rate announcement which would then be followed by a press conference. It is highly anticipated that the Fed will raise their rates for the first time, which is highly possible. However, we cannot be certain if the market expectations of a hawkish decision would be met, which the market bulls area also hoping for.

 

However, if the greenback weakens, this would come about just for a short period with the incoming data to dominate the market and boost the dollar. For tomorrow, we have the BOE meeting to look forward to but it is yet to be known if this will have a hawkish tone, in consideration of the Brexit talks in the past few weeks. If this happens, traders should expect for volatility.

 

Considering all this, traders are suggested not to presume any outcome or direction and trade deciding on the how the situation presents. It is best to wait for the markets to settle down then decide later on when the market has stabilized. For today, the FOMC meeting will be the center of attention that could result in consolidation in the market.