Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 30, 2017

 

It was a market holiday on several parts of the world yesterday, and the absence of market volatility due to the said holidays was felt throughout the market during the previous session as most of the major currency pairs consolidated and traded within a very limited range yesterday. EUR/USD traders had only one thing to look forward to during the duration of yesterday’s session, which is Draghi’s speech wherein he made his usual statements on the lessening of downward pressure on the EU economy, although this had little effect on the EUR/USD pair’s current standing.

 

What affected the value of the currency pair was the news that Greece is now prepared to abdicate the following bailout fund if the EU will still be unable to reach middle ground as far as the conditions were concerned. This then caused the EUR/USD pair to correct towards 1.1120 points during the latter part of yesterday’s session. As of the moment, the market is still experiencing very low liquidity levels as the Chinese market remains to be on a holiday, and as such, traders are advised to take all market movements today with a grain of salt. In addition, the market will also be experiencing month-end flows before this week comes to a close, and this is why traders should take it easy in order to prepare themselves for the onslaught of economic data later this week. The Fed rate hike in June is still not fully priced in, and unless the market gets some sort of conclusion with regards to the Fed’s next move, then it will be very hard to determine the short-term price actions of the EUR/USD pair. But the recent correction of the EUR/USD pair should be taken only as a mere correction instead of a full-on trend change as corrections are deemed as normal in every currency pair.

 

For today’s session, the market is expecting the release of Germany’s Preliminary CPI data, as well as the PCE data from the US economy. The PCE data will be closely watched as this will indicate whether the Fed will be indeed pushing through with its rate hike or otherwise and could possibly induce a lot of volatility into the market within the day.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 30, 2017

 

In a sea of otherwise very inactive major currency pairs, the GBP/USD pair seems to be the only pair which has gained significant volatility during yesterday’s trading session. The cable pair shot up by over 40 pips in spite of a market holiday across several locations throughout the world such as the US, UK, and China. The lack of market activity yesterday gave the pair’s traders an opportunity to induce a bounce in the pair although it was unable to offset the 150-pip crash of the cable pair during the session last Friday. In spite of this recent reversal, the GBP/USD pair is expected to remain trading in a very weak manner as a lot of economic factors seem to be going against the sterling pound at least for the time being.

 

Members of the ruling political party in Scotland have recently outlined the possibility of a Scottish referendum if ever they get reinstated in the Scottish government. But then again there have been recent rumors swirling around with regards to the ongoing Brexit negotiations, specifically on how the negotiations will pan out once the snap elections in June come to a close. In addition, the results of the recent opinion polls are showing that Theresa May lacked the expected lead in the upcoming snap elections, which puts May in danger since anything less than a landslide victory for the UK PM will make this particular risk of hers in order to establish herself in the international scene a failure. The GBP/USD pair is also currently struggling to surpass 1.3030 points, and all of these factors have turned against the cable pair and has put a significant amount of downward pressure on the pair.

 

For today’s session, there are no expected releases from the UK economy although the US will be releasing its PCE data, which will be closely monitored by the market as this will be indicating whether the June rate hike will indeed push through or otherwise. If this data disappoints the  market, then this will not bade well for the GBP/USD pair.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 30, 2017

 

The USD/CAD pair remained in consolidation mode as the market lacked significant volatility due to market holidays in China, US, and the UK. The loonie remains trading under the very important trading range of 1.3500 points, mostly due to a steadying in oil prices in addition to a strong greenback value.

 

The currency pair broke through 1.3500 points last week after a surge in oil prices. Although the oil bulls were very disappointed with regards to the results of the recently-concluded OPEC meeting, the loonie received some well-needed pressure from this drop in oil prices, thereby triggering the USD/CAD pair to revert to 1.3500 points and closed down last week at  just under this critical trading level. The CAD is also currently being propped up by a series of very positive data from the Canadian economy, with this economic improvement getting some acknowledgement from the Bank of Canada in its rate statement during the past week. In fact, the BoC has already decided to put its rates on hold instead of implementing a rate cut due to this consistent improvement in the country’s economic state, which could then lead to a possible rate hike if the country’s economy continues to be positive.

 

For today’s session, the US economy will be releasing its PCE data which is expected to clarify the country’s inflation status in addition to shedding some light on whether the Fed will be indeed implementing a rate hike next month. If the PCE comes out as negative, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly correct further towards 1.3400 points.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 1, 2017

 

The EUR/USD pair looks poised to  make another attempt at reaching its current range highs as the currency pair was able to take advantage of a correction in the greenback. This upward pressure in the currency pair is expected to last well into the first few days of June, particularly the 2 most essential trading days for this month.

 

The dollar experienced corrections on the back of a couple of disappointing data from the US economy. The first one was the Chicago PMI data, which failed to meet its expected economic reading and the pending home sales data, which also disappointed the entirety of the market yesterday. This triggered a large-scale dollar selloff against other major currencies and has enabled the EUR/USD pair to advance towards 1.1200 and was even able to reach 1.1250 points throughout the course of the NY session. Since the Fed had previously clarified that the implementation of the June rate hike will be wholly dependent on the results of the incoming economic readings from the US, the market has become very sensitive to readings coming from the US economy, with even minor readings inducing major volatility levels on the market especially if these comes out as very disappointing for investors. Eventually, the PMI data was revised to a much higher reading and this helped to cushion the blow of the fall of the USD, although this has left an impression on the market with regards to the adverse effects of a negative reading to the value of the US dollar. Meanwhile, the USD continues to be in peril in spite of its drop in value being temporarily stalled.

 

For today’s trading session, there are no major news releases coming from the EU economy while the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data and its ADP Non-Farm Employment change data during the NY session, which is a precedent to the release of the NFP report on Friday. This particular bit of news is then expected to induce major volatility levels and a move of the currency pair below 1.1200 points should be a signal for the pair’s bulls to rethink their positions.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: June 1, 2017

 

The Euro against the British pound was highly volatile during the Wednesday session. It is being in tested in the upper channel and a pullback was seen reaching the opening for the day. The market is attempting to gain sufficient impetus to break higher than the 0.88 level followed by 0.90 level.

 

In the long-term, this pair seems to be much stronger although there is a lot of noise found in the upper channel causing the choppiness of the market. The market might move slower especially with various major reports from the European Union and Britain. Same goes for Brussels and London which will be the center of attention and this market can be easily affected by these outside forces.

 

It won’t be long before this pair rallies upward and it is advisable to either buy after a breakout or be more careful and wait on the sidelines. Selling might be more difficult for this pair neither placing a short-term orde. However, a move lower than the 0.86 handle is a good thing although it seems that the buyers dominate participants but might now last in the current condition of the market.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 1, 2017

 

The USD/CAD pair was able to advance further towards its range highs during the previous session in spite of the greenback suffering blows against other major currency pairs due to a series of disappointing economic data from the US economy. The loonie is now trading at just above 1.3500 points which is considered to be a very essential trading region for the currency pair. However, the market has yet to see whether the USD/CAD pair will indeed manage to go even higher and reclaim its bullish price action or if it will correct and return to its previous trading range.

 

This surge in the value of the USD/CAD pair has been mostly attributed to a string of weak economic data from Canada. As the Canadian GDP was released during yesterday’s session, the annual and quarterly readings for 2016 disappointed the market in spite of a very positive monthly reading. This was far worse than what the market had initially anticipated and has caused the loonie to correct and the USD/CAD pair to increase further in value. Oil prices also dropped while the Canadian inventory data showed a solid draw in addition to an added increase of Libyan production data. This caused both the Canadian dollar and oil prices to drop and was more than enough for the currency pair’s bulls to help prop up the value of the USD/CAD pair past 1.3500 points where it is currently sitting as of the moment.

 

For today’s session, the market is expecting the release of unemployment claims data and the ADP employment report from the US economy, both of which are of utmost importance since this serves as a precursor to the incoming NFP report due tomorrow. The oil inventory data is set to be released today, and this, together with the NFP report will most likely determine the short-term price action of the USD/CAD pair.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 6, 2017

 

The USD/CAD pair continues to exhibited a very tight price action as the pair’s bulls and bears continue to fight out for the control of the currency pair and is expected to remain as the pair’s dominant trend in the short-term period. The pair has been trapped in a very limited range ever since the currency pair managed to push forward past 1.3500 points with buyers dominating the 1.3400 trading range.

 

During the past few days, oil prices have remained stable, thereby decreasing the amount of leverage it gave to the Canadian dollar and was one of the reasons why the loonie was unable to take full advantage of the dollar weakness which was due to a series of dismal US employment reports last week. Oil prices has also continued to be very disappointing due to rising tensions in the oil-rich Middle Eastern countries and has subsequently diminished its support for the loonie. In spite of the pair making a headway towards 1.3460 for a short while, it was almost immediately met with several buys, causing the USD/CAD pair to retreat towards 1.3500 points, where it is expected to stay put at least in the coming days. The market is now preparing itself for the trading sessions on Thursday and Friday as the currency pair would most likely undergo a volatile trading session due to Comey’s testimony as well as the release of the Canadian employment report on Friday. This is why traders are advised to remain in the sidelines until such time that a break shows up on the pair’s range before inducing any kind of progress in their trades.

 

For today’s session, there are now major releases from both the US and  the Canadian economy and the USD/CAD pair is expected to continue consolidating throughout the duration of today’s session.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: June 8, 2017

 

The USDCAD go through sideways amid Wednesday’s trades and attempted to push downwards reaching 1.3425 handle. After that, the market had broken out to the upside on the back of releasing the figures of  Crude Oil Inventories. The number showed that oil demand declined again while the greenbacks broke to upside and collapse over the 1.35 handle.

With this, the commodity-linked pair is preparing to resume the longer-term uptrend with anticipation that buying dips will progress.

 

The Canadian dollar is expected to struggle as demand continued to be sluggish relative to the crude oil market. A break on top of 1.36 handle prompts the market to move forward near 1.40 region eventually. As buying dips in the near-term will persist, selling the market seems uninteresting. The U.S. dollar has to extend its gains versus the loonie because the oil keep on dragging the currency in the longer-term

 

A breakdown or pull back cause buyers to missed the trend during the announcement.

The position on the lower level showed plenty of choppiness, hence, down there might have the same degree of irregularity because support will be provided for pullbacks. Therefore, expect a lot of order flow accompanied by “market memory found in the lower areas.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 20, 2017

 

The USD/CAD pair continues to consolidate within its range lows as the loonie makes another attempt to recover its losses and possibly trigger a bounce in its value. Now that the Bank of Canada is more than eager to help the Canadian economy make a 360-degree turn, the pair’s bulls will be in for a hard time as it tries to induce any kind of price bounce. Should the pair manage to create a bounce, then this should be viewed as a selling opportunity and should not be taken as a trend adjustment.

 

On the other hand, oil prices are still trading within its bottom rungs and remains weak as of the moment, however the CAD seems to be unaffected by this and has still managed to look very positive and has remained trading in a very positive manner. The CAD will only be able to gain some measure of short-term strength if the oil prices will be able to recover in the short run, and if this happens, then the USD/CAD pair might be able to make a substantial attempt to go beyond the critical range of 1.3000 points. The currency pair has weakened significantly ever since it surpassed 1.3500, with this region signalling a trend shift. The fact that the currency pair is still doing very well in spite of a drop in oil prices and dollar strength just goes to show how much of a change has happened within the price action of the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, the economic releases from the Canadian economy has showed consistently positive readings, with the BoC announcing its plans to help keep the country’s economy on  the upside.

 

For today’s trading session, there are no major releases from the Canadian economy, and the USD/CAD pair is expected to range and consolidate on both directions of 1.3200 points.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 04, 2017

 

The British pound against the U.S. dollar has had a difficult trading session yesterday as the dollar is starting to recover in the market as the week starts. Several data are expected to come out from the U.S. as traders are anticipating these data to be supporting the greenback.

In view of this, this commences the week in a great start especially for the U.S. dollar that dollar bulls could take advantage of and could further get better until the holiday but could proceed into consolidation prior to the resurgence of the volatility tomorrow.

The cable has had trouble following the bad data from the U.K. when the Manufacturing PMI did not meet expectations. Although, the Manufacturing PMI data from the U.S. came in stronger. These added pressure to the GBP/USD pair and promote the pair to get lower at 1.30 up to 1.29 level.

Currently, the pair is hovering strongly close to the resistance region in 1.3030 which seems to be similar to yesterday’s forecast. Moreover, the pair climbed uphill at a quicker pace where a correction won’t be surprising to happen.

The market sentiment is becoming stronger that the BOE would hike rates sooner which is also supported by the central bank as it is hawkish over the past month. Governor Carney is saying that the pound has surpassed the obstacle and a hawkish decision would be beneficial for the pound.

More expectantly, the employment data from the U.S. are assumed to come out positively which could raise the option for another rate hike from the Fed soon. It is intriguing on the how next week will turn out as the pound and the dollar would fight off on which will be priced higher than the other.

For today, the Construction PMI data from the U.K is expected to be published while the U.S. in a holiday that offsets the volatility and the liquidity in the market with low trading activities. It is reasonable to expect consolidation in the market.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 7, 2017

 

The EUR/USD climb higher on the positive news for the single European currency and brought negative news for the US dollar, hence, this helped the pair to return towards the range of its highs where it previously existed.

 

The euro-dollar pair appeared to be very bullish as of this time while traders and euro bulls will cheer up due to the fact that a major portion of this is from the existing strength of the EUR. This not the same during the earlier times wherein the pair trailed upwards following the dollar’s weakness.

 

As mentioned in the earlier forecast, the bullish run will remain intact within this pair and it appeared that will take some time prior the euro recovery. This happened yesterday due to the release of ECB minutes which clearly indicates that officials talked about preserving the QE tapering. However, decided to hold back until the inflation data support this move. It further shows that the ECB is very serious in considering the tapering as this also wrought a large increase for the EUR. In case that it lacks steam to push the EURUSD higher, we could rely on the ADP employment report which presented lower than expected value of 158K versus projections of 185K.

 

As the ADP served as a precursor to the NFP scheduled to be released later this day, it further acts as a reminder for the dollar bulls that they are not yet far from that critical phase and that other challenges and struggle continues in the near-term. With this, the trend of sluggish US data resumed in the past couple of days. This questioned the Fed’s decision on ignoring the weak data after they implemented rate hike in the previous month. Ultimately, the focus is on the NFP along with the wages report and should be keenly monitored. Any hints of weakness in this report will only need some stimulant in order for the euro bulls to support the pair to 1.05 level.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 14, 2017

 

Despite the fact that EUR/USD appeared to be volatile and fluctuates continuously and when we zoom out the trends viewed on the daily scale, we can see that the euro-dollar pair is trading in a quite tight range in the past couple of days.

 

Apparently, the pair is bullish but a move over the 1.1450 region a few days ago, correct back towards that level and it trades on top of 1.14 mark as of this writing.

 

Failure to move beyond the level 1.1450, despite the weakening of the US dollar previously, should still be considered by the bulls. As they are expectant that the EURUSD will remain to trend upwards when it cleared the resistive region at 1.1430. Yet, there’s no any movement happened and the pair trades under the broken resistance as of this moment.

 

As the euro bulls spent more time in managing their move, it provides a greater chance that dollar bullishness may eventuate and then trimmed lower until nothing.

 

Janet Yellen’s testimony in 2 days did not bring out any hints of hawkishness that disappointed the dollar bulls again yesterday since they somewhat expected that she will support the dollar and give any clues regarding economic growth and the schedule of the next rate increase. The Fed Chair spoke her typical lines without providing any signals and this resulted in a weaker dollar.

 

Ultimately, the US CPI and retail sales and other significant data is the second most important set of data next to jobs report. Therefore, it should be monitored closely in order to know if there is some recovery in the employment statistics for these figures could also lead to a recovery. In case that this happens, we will witness a fully recovered US dollar.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 17, 2017

 

The Euro against the U.S. dollar puts its high levels at risk following poor data results on Friday that boosted the pair. The dollar has been negatively positioned in the past few weeks to take advantage of any kind of recovery. The NFP results put a high data keeping hopes up that this would result in a reversal because of the U.S. economic data and anticipated to recover the dollar but it did not happen.

 

In the previous week, the dollar has kept a sustained decline but the market is focused on Yellen and late data released on Friday. Yellen’s speech was not as expected and she was not concerned with her less hawkish speech which will further place the dollar in a difficult situation. Hence, the dollar bulls will have to rely on the Friday data to appeal for traders to buy since Yellen could not support the dollar. Furthermore, both the retail sales data and the CPI data has failed expectation which has worsened the situation.

 

The retail sales came in with weakened growth while the CPI data came in at 0.1% compared to the anticipated value of 0.2% that pulled the dollar growth down and pushed the EUR/USD pair up. A steeper correction level is hoped for but the lackluster growth of the U.S. economic data raises concern and the next rate hike would depend on the next reports. Yet, the next rate increase will most likely not happen in the short-term.

 

For today, there is no major news from the Eurozone as well as in the U.S. which in effect, will continue the market sentiment on Friday. Nevertheless, traders should get ready for the week ahead.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 19, 2017

 

The British currency against the U.S. dollar had a correction during Tuesday session. The pair dropped towards 1.3030 level bringing the trend in a weaker position on Friday after the inflation data came out with negative data.

 

The pair is now on a crucial condition which will presumably persist in the upcoming trading sessions. The pair could break above the region to move forward in short-term. In the past few weeks, it is notable that the economic data from the UK did not meet expectations. This opposes the trend by the start of the year when the U.K. data has been impressive and exceeded expectations amid of political and economic problems brought by the Brexit negotiation.

 

The BoE has been anxious regarding the monetary policies including rate hikes in the future and the economic data has a vital role in the decision-making process. Hence, negativity in the data would make them be irresolute.

 

The GBP/USD pair was able to brush aside issues on weak data and Brexit concerns in the past few weeks due to the low dollar in the market. Moreover, BoE reinforces this and adds more pressure. However, if the dollar steadies, the attention will go back to the BoE and the economic data unless both works side by side. On the other hand, this would be more complicated for the pound bulls.

 

For today, there are no major new from Britain or from the United States. Choppiness is anticipated to carry on close to the 1.3050 region since the trend is now in consolidation and ranges.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 24, 2017

 

Draghi sounded dovish during the latest press conference and he was aware of the rally of the euro since the economic data favor the currency. Although the Draghi is trying to bring the price down as expressed in his speech, the market has reacted oppositely and bought the currency even more and push the price of the EUR/USD pair towards 1.15 level. Soon after, the news regarding the business transaction of Trump investigation, a selloff in the dollar occurred that influenced the price to move towards 1.16 region. The week closed above the said region.

 

In the upcoming week, we are heading towards the end of the month where the economic news and events dry up and hence we do not have much news in the coming week apart from the FOMC statement. But considering how bullish the EURUSD pair has been, we believe that the next target for the pair would be the 1.18 region.

 

As the last day of the week and the end of the month approaches, the pair will mostly persist in a neutral stance for today. There are less economic events except for the FOMC statement recently. The next target of the pair would be at 1.18 region for short term. Once this has been achieved, a correction could follow suit as it has been beyond its highs for the year and the highest since 2015. The number of short positions for the dollar will most likely increase that poses a lot of risks and uncertainty especially for dollar bears who would immediately exit the market once it goes up.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: July 31, 2017

 

The USD/CAD was able to obtain the highly-needed bounce on Thursday, which was previously mentioned since the week started. It is followed by the decline of the pair in the past few weeks because of the strong level in which the pair sits together with the possibility that this region is the buyer’s final stand.

 

As the strength of the dollar recovered, it helped the pair to soar high and affirmed lot of things in the following days. However, there is already a warning that the downward will be very intact and needed much time to return.

 

It is also mentioned that bears will use any bounce from the commodity-linked pair as an opportunity to sell prices highers. Any hints of recovery seen on Friday had plunged conclusively while the USDCAD appeared to be weak as usual.

 

The sluggish stance was triggered by the GDP figures of Canada and the United States. But the US data showed a marginally better than expected, while the Thursday’s data from the US prompted the market to have higher expectations from the gross domestic product. On one side, the Canadian GDP came in very strong and able to have another rate increase soon.

 

This led to a reversal of the whole trend since yesterday and the pair lies in below the 1.24 level which might become weaker.

 

Ultimately, there are no any major economic releases either from US or Canada. Therefore,  consolidation is safely expected together with ranging of the dollar which is at disadvantage because of the developments over the White House during weekends.

 

Furthermore, it is predicted the USDCAD to remain in pressured area as the markets look forward to a plenty of data expected in the latter part of the week.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 3, 2017

 

The main focus for today will be on the sterling pound as there are an expected economic releases and other data from the United Kingdom for this day. We await for the UK inflation hearings along with the rate announcement of the Bank of England to be issued. Also, BOE Governor Mark Carney will conduct his speech, therefore these events would likely cause high volatility for the GBP/USD.

 

The central bank of England was hawkish during their last meeting which led few markets to think that rate hike is possible sooner or later. There are three BOE members who agreed for a rate increase which triggered confidence for some markets, however, this only accounts a small portion of the market because the majority still believes that the bank will maintain its benchmark.

 

This is considered a logical approach regarding the continuous financial circles of Britain which could be a turmoil caused by the Brexit procedures. Moreover, a lot of things remain unclear, particularly the results of the referendum process in determining if it will a soft or hard Brexit. Due to many uncertainties, it is absurd for the BOE to make an increase and most likely, they want to see first the effect of the Brexit negotiations prior making such decisions.

 

The pound-dollar resume to consolidate yesterday and the range near the highs of its range are expected for this very important day. In case that the BOE decided to kept rates steady, the Cable is anticipated for further correction. The 1.3250 level serves as the ceiling at this moment.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 30, 2017

 

The rates are still maintained despite high volatility during the Tuesday trading session. The volatility is not surprising as the market reacted to the speeches from Draghi and Yellen on Friday. The speeches finished late for the day when the U.K. market closed as well as on Monday which is a holiday in the U.S.

 

Volatility is already anticipated which is what happened yesterday. Furthermore, the monthly end currency flow added to it. It supported the pair to move higher over the 1.20 level as it moved towards 1.2070 prior to the U.S. session. Higher global risk also partly contributed to the movement which directly involves the U.S. as the DPRK persists to threaten with different missile tests. Nevertheless, the situation has been handled pretty well and the same time supported the dollar to strengthen in the later in the day.

 

There was a correction seen that further pushed the pair towards the 1.20 level that closed the day when it started. The movement occurred quite fastly as traders are anxious on how long the trend will last. They are also cautious and trying to see how long before the ECB will intervene in the event of strong euro. These have had a big impact on euro and there will most likely be choppiness for short-term.

 

For today, the preliminary GDP data and the ADP report from the U.S. are anticipated to be released today which could greatly affect the pair and monitor its impact on the increase of rates. This would also determine if it big enough for the Fed to proceed with a quick rate hike by the end of the year. Hence, volatility is already anticipated and the holiday period is about to end as the EUR/USD pair would have a big change in action for short-term.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 25, 2017

 

On Friday, the EUR/USD had another range trading and consolidative day and attempted to break the 1.2000 level. However, a sudden strong selling beat the pair back which pushed the single European currency under the 1.20 region. This scenario was already anticipated since the elections in Germany is scheduled over the weekend, considering the fact that there is no one who would like to have large positions until the weekend.

 

The elections took place and the results were announced, showing already anticipated outcome which is the victory of Merkel’s party. However, something unexpected happened as the formation of a coalition started since many have said that Merkel is incapable to lead a government by herself only. Moreover, this could continue for some days or even weeks and the market is not in favor with this. There are only some instances where markets preferred some uncertainties and this situation could probably keep going and could lead for the euro sell-off.

 

During the trading session this morning, we saw some sell-off in EUR, but a retracement developed. As of this writing, the EURUSD appeared to be weak which might continue until the end of the day. The London session is much awaited due to a lot of news regarding the elections that the markets would receive, allowing the market to make its own decision about which way to go. Hence, the indecision and uncertainty brought an impact to the euro.

 

Ultimately, the ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to have his speech along with Germany’s election results which could possibly control the EUR trend for this day. According to projections, the euro-dollar pair will be under pressure throughout the day.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 13, 2017

 

The GBP/USD pair keep on trading in an up and down direction which seems directionless, by the weakness of the U.S dollar helps the Cable pair to boost amid this period.

 

The struggle of the British currency continues due to the risks linked with the Brexit process, however, the dollar weakening appeared to be massive which affected others in moving up over the greenback. Until now, the Brexit process is ongoing but it remains to be seen any major development.

 

The delay in the talks continues while other discussion also does not provide any progress so far. This trigger doubts if Brexit talks could possibly break down and further led to question if the United Kingdom will depart from the European Union even without any accomplished deal. This could be the possible thing to happen at this particular moment, which further resulted in lot of uncertainty.

 

Moreover, the position of PM Theresa May seems to be threatened since last week because most of her party are against her leadership technique. Albeit, she was able to surpass such mess, she remains involved in a complicated scenario. These combined events pushed the sterling pound under pressure but the weakening of the dollar made it acceptable.

 

Ultimately, the retail sales and CPI data from the United States are scheduled today while the United Kingdom has no major data for this day. These set of data should be monitored carefully by market participants because inflation is considered a major parameter by the Federal Reserve, particularly, in making the decision about the rate hike in December. In case the figures showed strong data, the GBPUSD is expected to wane.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 17, 2017

 

The euro bucks pair failed to gain strength during the trading session on Monday, followed by expectations to drive higher amid sluggish US data issued on Friday. While the retail sales showed robust data as well, however, the CPI resulted to a lower than anticipated figures. This caused the EURUSD to test the 1.1870 range high but the pair continuously moved lower since that period.

 

The EUR/USD weakened until the end of the trading course last Friday and the activity happened yesterday was a mere continuation of that previous trend. On one side, the U.S. dollar was able to acquire further strength since there are no any hints about the next missile launch from North Korea sooner or later, but the markets are still expecting for such motion. Moreover, this supported the greens to stir gradually and firmly across the board in the morning. The momentum ascends during the American hours with a high possibility that John Taylor would replace Janet Yellen for the position as Fed Chair. Taylor is known to be hawkish and very supportive of Fed rate increase. He is also favored by President Trump as the hawkishness helped the USD to perk up versus its counterpart currencies. Also, this has pushed the pair downwards below the 1.1780 mark as of this writing.

 

Ultimately, the Germany ZEW economic sentiment is scheduled to release today and no other major news both from the European Union and the United States.

 

The strength of the greenbacks is predicted to resumed this day as the pair eventually turns towards the range lows at 1.1700 mark.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 23, 2017

 

The EUR/USD pair closed the day with a decline during the course on Friday and up to this day, the weakness keeps going. Also, the US dollar strengthens while the eurozone continues to manage the Spain’s condition that placed further pressure on the single European currency in the near-term. The market could possibly trend sideways in the next couple of days while waiting for the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) on the short-term direction for the EUR. The complicated situation in Catalonia is not yet over since the Spanish administration dismissed the Catalonia government and appealed for new elections with an attempt to abandon the independence proposal. This caused uncertainties and confusion that affected the euro for today.

 

While traders keep on carefully tracking the situation to assess the impact on Spain and other parts of the European region.

 

There is not so much action expected during the first half of the week as the market count on the ECB. The central bank is anticipated to talk about the QE tapering in the meeting and Draghi’s statement and the press conference would likely lead to high volatility towards the euro after some time.

 

Moreover, the ECB did not yet provide any definite timeline for the tapering and the markets are waiting to receive some information from them. The greenbacks persist to remained steady despite the fact that the arriving figures from the United States seem choppy. This resulted in a disorganized state of the dollar. Also, it is projected to fix itself over the following weeks which could possibly prompt a strong trend.

 

Ultimately, there are no major economic releases from the European Union or the United States scheduled for today. Hence, the complicated condition of the Korean region and the risks in Catalonia are predicted to rule over the market trend for today.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 2, 2017

 

The EUR/USD pair waited for the FOMC minutes throughout the trading day on Wednesday, the minutes are expected to be issued during the American session. Aside from this pair, there are other many currency pairs that desire to know the thoughts of Fed members regarding the future rate hikes with expectations to help them determine the short-term trend for the U.S dollar.

 

This ensures that the single European currency was fixed in a very tight range at 30 pips, while markets in a long position understand that any choppy movement would lead to an unprofitable trade. Since the focus is centered on the positioning of trades prior the major news events coupled with large trends once the news was issued.

It became more interesting due to the subsequent news later this week which has equal of importance with concerns of the greens. It further opened the door for the possible reversal by the FOMC with the approaching news events.

 

The FOMC failed to achieve its target, however, most of the text remained unchanged, particularly the talks of future outlook that came in lower than market expectations. This resulted in a sudden minor shock for the USD, met some buying and pushed the bucks to a tight range until the end of the course after the minute's publication.

Considering all the projections formulated the entire day, the minutes conversely disappointed the markets which further triggered choppy data by means of the ADP report released earlier the day.

 

There are reports that confirmed Jerome Powell as the next head of the Fed Reserve but caused the dollar to weaken later this day, nevertheless, the effect of this news would likely be temporary.

 

Ultimately, the attention was turned towards the British pound as there are no releases from the United States or the European region for today. Hence, it is safe to say that there is some tight ranging and consolidation within the euro-dollar pair amid the trading day while waiting for the US employment statistics tomorrow which could roughly confirm the rate increase in December.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 8, 2017

 

The GBP/USD softened during the trading course on Tuesday and it closed the day with choppiness with regards the British pound. The sterling lost its strength in the morning and successfully regained its entire losses until the closing of the day. As of this writing, the GBP is trading comfortably on top of the 1.3150 level. The rebound muddled the scenario relative to the direction of the British currency.

 

On one hand, the American dollar appears to remain unchanged throughout the course yesterday. US President Donald Trump is currently on a trip to different Asian countries, the twitter seems to be a  good venue since Trump is outside US and sarcastic comments are not present also during this period. Therefore, it bolstered the greenbacks to maintains its position. The dollar received further support from the finishing touches on tax reform plan as the program is going through various stages. The pound was mainly bullish followed by a decline from the last fall that occurred during the BOE rate hike, however, it gave a gloomy economic perspective.

 

Despite the 2 cents decrease of the sterling on that day, it was able to recover within the day and worked out to acquire additional cent from the price on the same day. This indicates bullish signals towards the GBP while the market is worried about eliminating chances for more rate increase and starts to recede slowly.

 

Ultimately, both the United Kingdom and the United States will not release any major economic data throughout the day. Bullishness is expected to prevail amid the day. An increase from the Cable pair has the tendency to weaken and remained steady but the price could lead the price higher in the short term.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 17, 2017  

 

The EUR/USD pair had been moving unsteadily in the past few days as the pair moves up and down with high volatility as the greenback moves without a specific direction in the present global tone. The dollar is appealing to be bought in the short term yet the market maybe thinking twice. Although, there are instances where the rally of the dollar where it is being sold at a faster rate.

 

This maintains the pressure in the dollar and which would be advantageous for the euro. What’s keeping the market optimistic for the dollar is a rate hike from the Fed in December although, the market does not strongly believe this. There are no specific indications yet with indecisiveness of Fed members while the data move at a steady pace.

 

This has kept the dollar weak with any news or data to be released. In the past 24 hours, the euro decline to the area of 1.1750 which is seen to move down in general. The latest relevant news would be the continuation of the development of missiles from North Korea and the ongoing investigation on the accusation of Russian intervention in the US Presidential elections. These events would drive the dollar down.

 

For today, the speech of Draghi are expected during the London session but it is unlikely that he would discuss the monetary policy. Hence, traders should get ready for choppiness in trading this pair and be cautious in the liquidity of the pair.