Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 14, 2017

 

Although the UK economy saw a lot of events and developments during yesterday’s trading session, this has done practically nothing to induce added activity into the GBP/USD pair. A slight bounce occurred in  the pair during the previous session but this was automatically met with a selloff, especially since the bounce was somewhat thin and was unable to hold on and prevent the said selloff from occurring. The GBP/USD pair has however managed to surpass 1.2200 points and even managed to reach 1.2250 following market rumors that Theresa May might not be invoking Article 50 within the week. However, since there was no actual confirmation that the invocation would indeed be happening this week, the market became initially confused on the British pound’s rally and the lack of basis to this particular assumption has caused this bounce to eventually die out.

 

In addition, there have been rumors swirling around that the British government might not accept Scotland’s request to hold an independence referendum, especially since the UK is already neck-deep in uncertainties and another referendum would only cause more disaster for the country’s economy. These series of events has caused the GBP/USD pair to retreat towards 1.2200, where it is currently trading.

 

For today’s trading session, there are no expected data releases from the UK economy, while the US economy will be releasing its PPI data. However, all eyes will be on the FOMC rate announcement which is set to be released tomorrow. This, in addition to the impending invocation of Article 50, are both expected to keep the GBP/USD pair under pressure in the short term.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 15, 2017

 

The USD increased in value as the market anticipates the release of the FOMC rate announcement later today. As a result, the EUR/USD consistently weakened yesterday and has managed to break through 1.0650 points and is currently situated at just above 1.0600 points. A lot of analysts have been saying that the currency pair could possibly consolidate within the 1.0600-1.0700 barrier during the week of the FOMC statement and could possibly maintain its place within the region up until the end of this week.

 

The expected rate hike this coming March is pretty much secured and what the market will be focusing now is the amount of hawkishness of this particular announcement, and this is where the uncertainty lies. The majority of market players have no idea on just how hawkish the statement should be in order to push the value of the dollar further. Nonetheless, the market expects that there would be some sort of clue on the Federal Reserve’s next move and if possible, hints on the next scheduled interest rate hike from the central bank. Of course, it would definitely be good news for the market if the statement outwardly gives out clues of the next rate hike, but then again the central bank is not known for such moves and could possibly state that the schedule of the subsequent rate hikes would depend on the status of various economic data in the future.

 

The volatility of the EUR/USD pair could possibly be increased by the release of the CPI index data and the retail sales data. The currency pair could possibly drop to 1.0600 points and could even reach 1.0580 for a short period if the data comes out as positive.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 28, 2017

 

The EUR/USD pair crashed during the previous session as the pair corrected its current upmove which has been the pair’s trend for the past few weeks. The USD finally recovered across the board, resulting to sellers taking advantage of this occurrence and selling the EUR. The dollar strength has helped to propel the pair’s value towards 1.0800 points, therefore eradicating the pair’s previous gains which was made last Monday.

 

Because of this, traders are now mulling over the fact that the EUR/USD pair could be in for more corrections as the sessions progresses. However, the market has no choice but to wait and see how the pair’s price action turns out in the next few days, particularly if whether the pair would continue its current trend of correction or if the pair backs down as it approaches its support barrier at 1.0800, where the currency pair is situated as of the moment. The USD remained weak last Friday up until Monday due to the repeated failed attempts of the Trump administration to pass the healthcare bill. However, the White House is now trying to make another attempt at passing the said bill after Republicans reached out to like-minded Democrats. In addition, the US economy continues to release a slew of strong economic data and this has caused the EUR/USD pair to fall further during the US trading session.

 

For today’s session, there are no expected releases coming from both the EU and the US economy. However, the month-end flows are expected to come anytime soon as March comes to a close, and since the USD’s strength is expected to persist today, the EUR/USD pair would continue to remain under pressure with the 1.0800 range remaining the essential barrier for the currency pair.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 29, 2017

 

The GBP/USD had a very disastrous trading day yesterday as the currency pair crashed by over 200 pips following the USD’s recovery, as well as the nearing invocation of Article 50. A lot of market players have been saying that today will be a very interesting day for the GBP/USD pair as the Article 50 will be invoked later today, which will mark the start of the Brexit process and basically a point of no return for the British economy.

 

The GBP/USD pair has seen a consistent buildup of shorts during the past week as the market awaits a very large drop today. However, the value of the GBP/USD pair is also consistently moving higher and increasing towards 1.2600 points. This is a potentially very risky combination and the effect of this combo manifested yesterday, wherein both the USD’s strength and Brexit-related concerns caused the currency pair to drop from its range highs of 1.2600 towards 1.2400 points, where the pair is currently trading. The USD recovered amid possibilities that the Trump admin might again try to pass the healthcare bill by seeking help from like-minded Democrats. Theresa May will also be signing the order for Article 50, and it will be interesting to see how the sterling pound will react to this most recent development in the UK economy.

 

For today’s session, there are no major releases from both the US and the UK economy and this is why the market will be mostly focusing on the invocation of Article 50 and the subsequent reaction of the GBP/USD pair following the said invocation.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: March 30, 2017

 

The USD/JPY pair dropped in value during the previous session in spite of the US dollar’s strong outlook against other major currencies. The ambiguity in the US equity markets, as well as weak Treasury yields might have contributed to the weakness in the currency pair. A lot of investors are now going back to the safety of the Japanese yen, mostly because of the alarming concerns with regards to the French elections, Brexit negotiations, and Trump’s frustrated attempts to fulfill his campaign promises. The USD/JPY closed down the previous session at 111.042 points after decreasing by 0.083 points or-0.07%.

 

For Thursday’s session, investors will be waiting for the release of the US GDP data as well as jobless claims data, in addition to comments from Fed officials including Kaplan, Dudley, Williams, and Mester. But of these four officials, the statement coming from Dudley is touted as the most interesting due to his position in the FOMC as a permanent voter. Dudley is expected to discuss topics such as the Fed’s monetary policy and the present financial climate of the US economy.

 

For the meantime, it seems as if the Fed and bond investors have contrasting views with regards to the path of US interest rates. This could be partly attributed to bond investors overvaluing the Trump administration’s ability to help prop up the economy by way of highly-aggressive economic policies. The USD/JPY pair could receive additional support if the Republicans would manage to convince investors that they can actually turn Trump’s proposals into actual laws. However, any additional doubts with regards to Trump’s ability to fulfill his role as President could induce additional selling pressure.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 5, 2017

 

The EUR/USD pair is still trading within a very limited range, although the pair’s bulls have somewhat managed to maintain its hold on the currency pair in spite of the pair’s inability to move in any definite direction for quite a while now. The pair’s bulls were initially expected to surrender its gains in order to enable the EUR to advance towards 1.0500 points at least prior to the FOMC meeting, but so far this has not yet occurred and it is possible that the minutes will be released with the EUR/USD pair still trapped within its current trading range.

 

The market was taken by surprise yesterday as Fed member Lacker tendered his resignation after admitting that he had leaked top-secret information with regards to the 2012 FOMC meeting to a certain financial institution. Lacker has also stated that the firm’s analysts had the said information but regardless of Lacker’s manipulation of the said statement, it remains clear that he has illegally leaked confidential information and subsequently resigned when the said scheme was revealed. The USD had surprisingly no reaction to to this particular news once it was released.

 

However, during today’s session, the USD backtracked across the board as the EUR/USD pair surged from 1.0650 points and traded very near its range highs of 1.0680 points. As of the moment, the market is now in a consolidating move as a lot of economic data are expected to be released later today. The ADP Employment Change data will be released today, which is an important piece of economic news since this is largely considered as a basis for the result of the NFP report. The US Manufacturing PMI data will also be released, followed by the FOMC minutes towards the close of the NY session. A volatility surge is expected prior to the release of the FOMC minutes and as such, traders are advised to tread very carefully with regards to trading with the EUR/USD pair. The pair’s bulls are most likely to dominate the pair and could enable the EUR/USD pair to inch higher during today’s series of sessions.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: April 5, 2017

 

The USD/CAD pair briefly made it towards 1.3400 points and even managed to surpass this region following a series of very dismal economic readings from the Canadian economy. However, the advancement of the Canadian dollar was almost immediately met with tremendous pressure from sellers, causing the CAD to retreat towards 1.3400 points. Analysts are now saying that unless the USD/CAD pair manages to surpass the large-scale selling at 1.3500 points, then the currency pair would be unable to make any significant progress as of now. But the pair’s bulls have yet to reveal how they plan to handle this dilemma in the pair as the USD is expected to be more level in the next few days on the back of an increase in oil prices.

 

The 1.3500 region has proven to be very crucial for the USD/CAD pair since the currency pair has been unable to overcome this pair for several times in a row. The currency pair would have to have large-scale buys in order to push past through this region and reach 1.4000 points. As of the moment, the Canadian economy has been throwing up some fairly decent economic data, although the Canadian trade balance data had somewhat paled and could be a precursor to a dismal future for the country’s economy. The trade balance data was at a negative while the market was expecting a positive reading, and this basically means that the country’s imports and exports are most likely to suffer in the long run.

 

However, the increase in oil prices could possibly provide a short-term breather for the Canadian economy, and since the USD is expected to experience short-term consolidations, the USD/CAD pair would most likely follow this particular trend and consolidate within 1.3300-1.3500 points. However, the pair is still not strong enough to surpass 1.3500 in the near future.

 

For today’s session, there are no releases from the Canadian economy but the US will be releasing several economic readings, such as the ADP employment change data and the FOMC meeting minutes. The NY session could possibly be met by a significant amount of volatility and if the pair’s price touches the 1.3500 range, then this could be a great opportunity for a stop loss.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 11, 2017

 

The GBP/USD pair has managed to make a slight recovery during the previous trading session as the USD strength wavered slightly and is now trading at just over 1.2400 points. The strength of this currency pair is not expected to translate into a bullish stance since the pair could possibly persist with its ranging and consolidation action on both sides of 1.2400 points. The market has been very slow during yesterday’s session and this is expected to seep through up to today’s session, especially since the majority of traders are now in a stop and stare mode as they do not have any kind of significant trade bases as of the moment.

 

The uncertainties surrounding the Syrian war has somewhat died down since there are no recent updates with regards to the ongoing war in the region. However, there’s no denying that these problems continue to exist and this is why traders are still afraid to direct their trades into any direction lest they be caught once the pair reverses its price action due sudden events such as the US airstrike on Syria last week. The GBP/USD pair is now caught within the range of 1.2100-1.2600 and does not look poised to move in any direction now that the Brexit negotiations are about to begin. The start of the negotiations are not expected to induce significant volatility since both sides are expected to hold their own. This is also the reason why traders are refusing to take specific trade directions for the moment.

 

For today’s session, the UK CPI data is scheduled to be released while there are no major releases from the US economy. The GBP/USD pair is expected to stay put no matter how the CPI data pans out within the day.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 12, 2017

 

The Euro paired against the U.S. dollar climbed higher during Tuesday’s session as it rebounded in the support level near the 1.0580 and broke towards the 1.0600 mark. It is favorable to go long as it extended towards the 1.0630 mark. It seems that the decline in prices has reached its end and is now anticipated to rise leaving the market wondering how high can it go. However, there is not enough momentum to bring the price up since the greenback has recently recovered that brought the pair back to the 1.06 mark.

 

There has been a lot of happenings involving geopolitical events in the past 24 hours that shook the market causing high volatility in the trend. The tension with North Korea and the situation in Syria where U.S. is trying to take control have been increasing concern day-by-day.

 

Moreover, Trump is trying to regain its pride and stand in the global economy.

 

It seems that Trump is losing its foothold as this puts pressure in the dollar but in effect brought the price up for the EUR/USD pair instead. With all his promises such as higher infrastructure spending, lower corporate taxes, improved health care programs, these were not yet achieved and the market is becoming impatient.

 

For major news today, traders should look out for the U.S. Crude oil inventory data to be released today but would not have much of an effect on the EUR/USD pair. It is foreseen that the pair will most likely react but in a small range due to rising geopolitical problems and associated risks which could persist for some time.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: April 18, 2017

 

The US dollar crashed to its lowest levels within a five-month period against the Japanese yen as a reaction to North Korea-related tensions during the previous weekend. However, as the USD/JPY pair came within a major retracement barrier at 107.856 points, the USD managed to recover its losses and closed down on a much higher level than expected. The USD/JPY pair closed down the previous session at 108.904 points.

 

The current volatility level of the USD/JPY pair has been mostly influenced by the price action of the US Treasuries. US bond prices crashed during the previous session immediately after reaching an all-time high since November last year. Now that both the USD/JPY pair and Treasury yields are on their lowest rungs since November 2016, a lot of investors are now speculating that the Trump administration will be unable to complete its campaign promises within the preset timeframe, including the implementation of a new healthcare plan, tax cuts, and even imposing an increased fiscal spending mechanism. In addition, some traders are also saying that the USD was propelled forward by reports that Trump is leaning towards appointing a bank-friendly figure for the Federal Reserve’s vice chair for bank supervision post.

 

For today’s session, the course of the USD/JPY pair is expected to be dominated mostly by investor sentiment as well as Treasury yields. The currency pair will be able to regain its momentum only if there is an increase in yields and if investors put their interests towards high-earning assets.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 18, 2017

 

The GBP/USD pair traded on a strong note during yesterday’s session as it was able to not only maintain its gains but has also managed to propel itself forward and attempt to make a dent in the resistance region situated at 1.2600 points. As of the moment it is still unable to make a significant impact in this particular region but it has yet to be seen whether it will be able to make a dent as the European traders are now going back to work after the holidays. A retraction towards the 1.2500 trading range is expected to occur before making any serious gains.

 

The sterling pound has been doing really well as the market is now waiting for the start of the Brexit negotiations between the EU and UK officials. The negotiations are expected to be very long and very winding, and both sides should be able to hold onto their respective gains. The Brexit process itself is also expected to affect the sterling pound in the long run. The string of economic data released from the UK economy looks good so far, with the Bank of England managing to hold the current economic situation together, however it remains to be seen whether it will still be able to do so once the negotiations begin. The 1.2600 region is expected to be sustained but as the negotiations wear on, this is expected to induce additional volatility into the pair and this is why traders should be extra careful when it comes to trading with the GBP/USD pair in the medium term outlook.

 

There are no major news releases from both the UK and the US economy for today, and as such, the GBP/USD pair is expected to continue its current trend of ranging and consolidation with a bullish undertone as it again tries to break through the 1.2600 range.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 20, 2017

 

The EUR/USD pair encountered a lot of selling pressure after it reached the 1.0750 trading range and was unable to make any significant progress beyond this particular region. The currency pair has tried in vain to break through this range and has since then resorted to consolidating between 1.0750 and 1.0700 region for the duration of yesterday’s session, with the pair’s bulls mostly responsible for maintaining the pair’s position within its range highs.

 

There were no economic news released during the previous session and this is why the EUR/USD pair merely engaged in a ranging and consolidating mode with a bullish undertone for the US dollar. The USD strength was not that pronounced and was only able to induce a minor correction in the EUR/USD pair. However, there are some members of the ECB that are saying that economic speculations in the eurozone could possibly exceed market expectations, however this did not make a significant dent in the current value of the EUR/USD pair. The 1.0750 trading range could possibly be a good position for the pair’s bears to push the currency pair down, where the selling is expected to surge. The currency pair could also possibly correct towards 1.0600 unless a major market phenomenon shocks the market yet again.

 

For today’s trading session, the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data as

well as its Manufacturing Index data while there are no expected releases from the EU economy. The US Treasury secretary will also be making a speech within the day and this is expected to increase today’s market volatility. On the other hand, the USD is expected to hold its ground and the currency pair will most likely remain within its current range.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: April 25, 2017

 

The USD/JPY pair had a very volatile trading session last Monday although it managed to finish the session on a much higher note as investors reacted to the first round of the French national elections. However, the currency pair dropped slightly, an indication that investors were pretty much sure of the election results and were now moving towards other geopolitical events such as the North Korean issues and an impending shutdown in the US economy. The JPY could possibly resume its rally if concerns over geopolitical issues would increase over time. Meanwhile, the USD was also unable to stabilize itself due to a drop in Treasury yields and a very dismal US economic data.

 

As of the moment, the results of the French elections are showing that Macron could easily eclipse Le Pen in the second round of the elections, which is scheduled on May 7. The USD/JPY pair is not expected to make a significant reaction to the election unless Le Pen would be able to surpass Macron’s current lead in the elections. On the other hand, a looming government shutdown is expected from the US economy could possibly happen once the shutdown deadline of April 28 would fail to see the government passing enough legislations to ensure that certain branches of the government would not have to cease operating. Although the economy itself still has some back up funds which could ensure the economic stability of the country for several more months, this is not a good sign for the economy and investors are expected to act in accordance to this particular occurrence. Once this happens, then investors could possibly move towards safer assets such as the Japanese yen.

But the main focus of USD/JPY investors for this week are the events in North Korea, with the demand for safer assets expected to stay in place due to tensions created by the North Korean missile and nuclear program.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: May 2, 2017

 

Investors on the USD/JPY pair chose to pay no mind to the relatively weak economic data coming from the US and instead shifted its focus on the recent increase in the demand for high-yield assets such as stocks, as well as an increase in the yields of US Treasuries. The USD/JPY pair closed down the previous session at 11.824 points after increasing by +0.30% or 0.335 points.

 

A drop in the US economy’s inflation and factory rates has put out any possible expectations for an interest rate hike this coming June from the Fed. Meanwhile, the PCE index dropped by 0.1 points last March, the index’s largest decrease ever since September 2001. In addition, the Core PCE Price Index increased by 1.6%, which is its smallest gain since July 2016. US Treasury yields surged yesterday after the US government managed to avoid a possible shutdown after clinching a deal for government funding. Equity prices also managed to climb higher, which also heightened the demand for high-risk assets and diminished the demand for the Japanese yen.

 

The USD/JPY pair could possibly find more support just as long as there is a demand for high-yield assets. However, the currency pair quickly became range-bound since investors are now bracing themselves for the Fed’s interest rate decision this coming Wednesday. As of the moment, the Federal Reserve is not expected to implement an interest rate hike this coming Wednesday, however the USD/JPY could possibly be influenced by the central bank’s statement tomorrow. Traders are advised to look for any clues with regards to the Fed’s next timing for its interest rate hike.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 2, 2017

 

The EUR/USD pair exhibited a ranging and consolidation during the duration of yesterday’s session. It was a market holiday yesterday in several parts of Europe and Asia, and this is why the market volatility and liquidity levels were on a low during the previous session. In addition, traders are also proceeding with caution since the first week of the month is usually characterized by an influx of economic readings from last month.

 

These factors were the main reason why the currency pair consolidated within a small range of less than 50 pips. Today could be considered as the legitimate start of the week, and now that there is an expected surge of data coming from last month, the market is expected to undergo some significant volatility for today. The EUR/USD pair ran at 200 pips during the previous week following the results of French national elections, and this is why the currency pair could possibly be subject to corrections, although it has yet to be seen just how significant these corrections would be. The 1.0850 trading range is expected to ward off any corrections at least for the time being while the market waits for the release of economic data this week. The FOMC meeting minutes, the NFP report, and a speech from Yellen will be released within the week which could induce volatility in the pair. However, the market will be looking out for any hints of a Fed rate hike this June and if this does not happen, then the EUR/USD pair could possibly test the 1.1000 trading range.

 

For today’s session, there are no major economic releases from both the EU and US economy for today, and the EUR/USD pair is expected to undergo a consolidation with bearish undertones for the rest of today’s session.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 2, 2017

 

Yesterday was a very slow trading day for the GBP/USD pair as the market holidays in Europe and Asia left several trading desks vacant, thereby decreasing the amount of market volatility. The currency pair had briefly attempted to test its range highs at 1.2945 points but then eventually dropped in value as the day progressed before finally closing down yesterday’s session at 1.2900 points.

 

There is little market volatility nowadays in spite of Trump being as crass as usual with regards to his public comments on Twitter regarding US relationships with other countries such as Russia and China, mostly because market players have somehow gotten used to the President’s attitude. As a result, the GBP/USD pair was largely affected since it still has no definite course of action as of late. However, it is only a matter of time before the expected surge of economic data which usually occurs during the first week of a new month. The GBP/USD pair is expected to exhibit more consolidation until all the scheduled economic reports are released within the week, starting from the FOMC minutes this coming Wednesday.

 

For today’s session, the UK economy will be releasing its Manufacturing PMI data during the EU session, with the said reading expected to follow the recent slew of positive economic data from the region during these past few months. If this indeed happens, then the cable pair could possibly test its range highs yet again within today’s session.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 4, 2017

 

The USD had a very positive trading session yesterday as a result of a positive economic dollar-related news. This then helped the dollar to eclipse the value of other currencies, and the EUR/USD pair was no exception. The currency pair had started out yesterday’s session on a somewhat slower pace as the market anticipated the release of important economic readings and had spent the majority of yesterday trading within its range highs. However, as the said financial data started coming in, the dollar was able to capitalize on this slew of good news and prop itself up higher, putting significant downward pressure on the currency pair which is now trading at just under 1.0900 points.

 

The first bit of good news came in the form of the ADP employment report, which surprisingly came out as expected, considering the fact that last month’s NFP report had failed to meet market expectations. Up next was the manufacturing report which also came out as positive, and this increased the USD’s value even more. However, by this point, the dollar was still somewhat at par with the value of the euro since the market chose to standby for the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. The said minutes were released halfway during the NY session, and since there was no accompanying press conference the market had no choice but to pick on the results of the minutes itself. The Fed did not give any indication of the schedule of the next rate hike, however it pointedly ignored the somewhat tame economic growth in the Q1, which the market took as a signal that the central bank might be preparing for another June rate hike. This triggered a dollar buy which pushed down the EUR/USD pair towards under 1.0900 points.

 

As of this point, the market is starting to price in a June rate hike although there are still no definite hints as of the moment. For today’s session, the market is expecting the release of the US unemployment claims data while Draghi will be speaking during the latter part of the NY session. There is little volatility expected today as the NFP report is due to be released tomorrow. The EUR/USD pair is expected to trade with bearish undertones for the rest of today’s sessions.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 4, 2017

 

The GBP/USD pair was unable to move past its resistance level of 1.2950 points, causing the pair to retreat under this region where it is currently situated. The construction PMI data was released yesterday, and this particular bit of data had exceeded initial market expectations, adding up to the string of positive economic data coming in from Tuesday’s session. These series of data was able to help keep the sterling pound under its bid price and traded in a relatively steady trading manner during the first few hours of yesterday’s session.

 

The ADP employment report as well as the non-manufacturing data came in next, and these helped to further strengthen the stance of the USD as they both were able to meet expectations. The FOMC minutes were then released hereafter, wherein members of the central bank chose to snob the results of the Q1 GDP data, which was taken as a bullish mark for the USD since a large-scale buy was triggered during the NY session. The GBP/USD pair then plummeted  through 1.2900 points and is now trading at 1.2875 points. The pair’s support levels are situated at 1.2850 points and since the NFP is expected to come in during yesterday’s session, the cable pair is expected to be able to maintain its hold on this particular region while it continues to consolidate.

 

For today’s session, we have the UK economy’s services PMI data as well as the US economy’s unemployment claims data, both of which are expected to induce volatility in the currency pair. The market is not expected to have much activity today as there is an influx of economic data scheduled for tomorrow.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: May 4, 2017

 

The USD/JPY pair traded just within the reaches of its six-week high as the Fed refused to remove the possibility of a June rate hike, although the country’s economic growth weakened during the previous quarter. The Fed chose to maintain its current interest rates and had highlighted the positive outlook for the labor market during its two-day meeting, which could possibly be an indicator that at least two more interest rate hikes are scheduled to be carried out within the year. The USD/JPY pair closed down the previous trading session at 112.759 points after increasing by +0.69% or 0.0770 points.

 

The current Fed statement and the previous statement do not have any stark contrasts except for the central bank choosing to ignore the GDP data this time. The futures markets are now pricing in a 93% probability that the Fed will be implementing an interest rate hike this coming June. The next FOMC meeting is set on June 13-14 which will be followed by a press conference from Janet Yellen. Based from the Fed’s meeting minutes released yesterday, the Fed could possibly raise its interest rates by up to 25 basis points up to three times in a row before the year ends. If this indeed happens, then the US dollar would eventually become a very attractive and a very lucrative investment for market players.

 

For today’s session, market volatility will not be expected to to increase since the majority of market players will be saving their energies for the release of the NFP report this Friday.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 11, 2017

 

The EUR/USD pair continues to exhibit an intermittent trading action, which has been the pair’s dominant price trend ever since the beginning of this week. The market had initially expected the currency pair to start off this week with a bang and consistently exhibit a positive trading stance throughout the week due to Macron’s recent victory in the French polls, but as of now the currency pair is on the backfoot as its bulls have decided to retreat and take out profits in order for them to purchase the EUR/USD pair lower as it continues its correction.

 

In addition to the EUR/USD pair’s weakness, the greenback has also been strengthening across the board as traders are now about to conclude their June rate hike pricing. All of these factors has caused the EUR/USD pair to exhibit corrections at under 1.0900 points. However, during the past two days, the currency pair has been either ranging and consolidating or exhibiting a choppy price action, which is an indication that the market is attempting to create its own base. The currency pair is expected to create a base for another bullish attempt as the after-effects of the most recent rate hike is now losing its relevance and the improvements in the EU economy is now starting to become more evident in the market.

 

For today’s session, there are no  major news releases from the EU although the US economy will be releasing its unemployment claims and PPI data, although these are not expected to make a significant dent in the current status of the currency pair. The EUR/USD pair can be safely expected to remain its choppy action at the 1.0850 trading range throughout the day.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: May 16, 2017

 

The USD/JPY pair experienced a turnaround during yesterday’s trading session after a sudden high demand for high-risk assets manifested during the earlier parts of the Monday session. The JPY was initially boosted by flight-to-safety buys but immediately disappeared as market investors chose to shift their focus to the surge in US equity markets. The USD/JPY pair closed down yesterday’s session at 113.787 points after increasing by +0.41% or 0.464 points.

 

Investors were generally worried with regards to Trump’s unexpected firing of FBI Director James Comey, the cyber-attack which made headlines last Friday, and the ballistic missile launch from the DPRK. The currency pair then began to hit rock-bottom after traders were practically unresponsive to these recent developments. This price action from the USD/JPY shows that investors might have become somewhat oblivious to these said developments. In fact, the cyber-attack was able to benefit the market after tech giants such as Cisco posted gains following the said online attacks.

 

For today’s trading session, investors will be waiting for the release of industrial production data, mortgage delinquencies data, building permits, capacity utilization data, and housing starts data from the US economy. If this specific set of data comes out as a market disappointment, then the chance of the Fed implementing more rate hikes in the future might be lessened, although the June rate hike has been pretty much priced in by the market already. In any case, this could also cause the US dollar to drop further in value.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 19, 2017

 

The USD/CAD pair continues to exhibit a very steady trading manner during the previous session and seems to be largely unaffected by the currently very high volatility levels in  the market. In spite of the recent turmoil affecting the US government and a spike in oil prices, the loonie seems to be unaffected by this and remains trading on both sides of 1.3600 points in a very choppy price action with no indications of a possible change in direction.

 

The recent surge in oil prices has kept the USD/CAD pair buoyant, and this is why the currency pair has stayed within the reach of 1.3550 points. The pair’s consolidation is expected to continue until the next few days since oil prices have already increased in the short-term. Meanwhile, the greenback could possibly backfoot across the board since the possibility of a June Fed rate hike has dimmed somewhat. If this indeed happens, then the 1.3550 range will become a very critical region to surpass and until the USD/CAD pair goes past this range, then it can be safe to say that the pair’s uptick is most likely to remain in the short-term. Otherwise, the currency pair could possibly revert to its previous range and could resort to a bearish consolidating price action.

 

For today’s session, the Canadian economy will be releasing its CPI data and retail sales data, both of which are expected to induce volatility in the pair’s price action.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 23, 2017

 

The USD/CAD pair has been exhibiting a very disappointing price action ever since it was able to test its range highs at 1.3800 points during the start of this month. The currency pair has been suffering from the repercussions brought about by the greenback’s weakness and the strength of the loonie which was mostly due to an oil price surge. This oil price increase was able to cover up the actual occurrences within the Canadian economy and has provided enough leverage for the loonie to advance, and this is why the USD/CAD pair has been consistently dropping value during the last two weeks.

 

As of the moment, the currency pair is now within a very critical region of 1.3500 points, where it continues to look very weak. The weakness of the greenback has been the dominant market trend as of the moment, with the dollar getting adversely affected by Trump’s political woes, which in turn has affected the US economy as well as its monetary policy. The market had initially priced in a rate hike this coming June, but with the recent slew of dismal events, it looks like the market’s players might have to put off this interest rate hike at least for now. In addition, the rising oil prices has helped the loonie to retain its positive image amidst Canadian banking concerns, wherein the majority of Canadian banks have been given the thumbs-down by ratings agencies. The loonie strength has also helped to offset the concerns surrounding the HCG and the housing sector.

 

For today’s session, there are no major news releases coming from both the US and the Canadian economy, although some Fed officials will be making statements today with regards to the US monetary policy. All these are expected to add downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair and cause the pair to test its support levels.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 23, 2017

 

The GBP/USD pair has still refused to join the tumult caused by other major currencies rallying against the greenback. In addition, the market was wrecked by news of a bombing at Manchester, which killed a total of 19 people and has injured over 50 people in its wake, in what has been confirmed as an all-out terrorist attack. Although the reaction of the sterling pound to this particular news has been somewhat muted, it has certainly caused the GBP/USD pair to drop in value, wherein it is not expected to become bullish since the Manchester bombings has made headlines today.

 

The GBP/USD pair started off yesterday’s session a weak note following reports that the UK government might cancel the Brexit negotiations if the EU officials would implement a lot of harsh conditions. These developments are all expected to maintain the downward pressure on the cable pair as the UK economy enters a very critical period next month due to the oncoming snap elections and the Brexit talks immediately after the elections. However, the cable pair did manage to make a slight recovery during the European session, with the pair reverting to 1.3000 and even managed to test 1.3030 points before being met with a lot of selling and correcting towards 1.3000 points following the news of the bombings. The GBP/USD pair is then expected to remain under downward pressure for the duration of today’s sessions.

 

For today, there are no major releases coming from the UK economy, while a couple of Fed officials will be making speaking engagements later in the day. Since the recent bombings at Manchester would most likely dominate the international headlines, the GBP/USD pair is expected to remain safely consolidating on both sides of 1.3000 points with bearish undertones.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 26, 2017

 

The USD/CAD pair has been projected to be highly dependent on the state of oil prices as well as the OPEC meeting held yesterday, and in fact, the loonie skyrocketed in value as the OPEC meeting concluded yesterday’s meeting on a somewhat dismal note as far as the markets were concerned.

 

The market had initially hoped that the OPEC members would approve an extension of the production cuts since the majority of them are expecting deeper production cuts in the future. However, what the OPEC members did was to extend the production cut deal for another 9 months, with both Iran and Libya given an approval to maintain its current status quo. This turned out to be a huge disappointment for the market in general, and this caused oil prices to drop after a large selloff occurred. This was then especially unfavorable for the Canadian dollar, particularly for the Canadian economy as its fate relies on oil prices. As of the moment, the USD/CAD pair has reverted by 80 pips as the loonie starts to drop in value. The currency pair was also propped up even more by the dollar strength and now the pair is back at its support-turned-resistance level of 1.3500 points. The market will now be monitoring how this pair closes down this week’s session since if it manages to close down at over 1.3500 points, then this is an indicator that the bulls have regained control of the pair and the USD/CAD could possibly be poised for more increases. On the other hand, if the pair closes down at under 1.3500 points, then this means that the bears are now dominating the pair and the market might have to brace themselves for more selling at least in the short-term.

 

The US economy will be releasing its durable goods data and its Preliminary GDP data within the day, although traders are advised to sit back and wait for the session to close down before making any significant moves.