KostiaForexMart Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 Crisis on the Horizon? Politics and Economics Drown Dow, Nasdaq, Tesla Profit-Taking Wave: Wall Street Indexes End Day Lower The key U.S. stock indexes closed lower on Tuesday as investors sought to take profits after the recent rally that began amid the presidential election. Markets are anxiously awaiting fresh U.S. inflation data this week, which could significantly impact future price action. Post-Election Records: Investors Assess Prospects Stock indices have been on a tear since the November 5 election, buoyed by new President Donald Trump's promises to cut taxes and loosen business regulations. Market participants have been buying up shares, hoping that these measures will support economic growth and revive the corporate sector. Inflation Concerns Have Cooled Enthusiasm However, optimism in the market declined on Tuesday, as investors began to worry that the policies proposed by the Trump administration could trigger a rise in inflation. Amid these concerns, European markets also fell, losing 2%, after statements from the European Central Bank, who warned that higher tariffs from the United States could hurt the global economy. Tesla and Others Lose Ground After a Jump Some companies that investors had previously been buying up in anticipation of their rise under the new administration have retreated after reaching peaks. Tesla (TSLA.O) shares fell 6% on Tuesday, despite an impressive 40% gain since the election. Economic growth is a positive sign, but bonds are under pressure Karen Karniol-Tambour, co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater Associates, emphasized at the Yahoo Finance Invest conference that despite the risks, U.S. stocks remain attractive assets amid the expected sustainable economic growth in the U.S. She noted that this dynamic is supporting the stock market, although the yield on 10-year Treasury notes has already reached a four-month high, rising amid an expected review of economic policy. Russell 2000 - from peak to trough The Russell 2000 small company index (.RUT) fell 1.8%, although on Monday it finished trading at the highest level in the last three years. Meanwhile, rising Treasury yields have added pressure on stocks as bond investors begin to price in the Trump administration's future policies. Treasuries as a Worry Signal for Stocks Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital, described the current situation as a difficult balance, with rising 10-year Treasury yields creating a headwind for the stock rally. "On the one hand, investors are cheering about the stimulus package, but on the other, the bond market is signaling its displeasure," he explained. Ablin added that tariffs, tax breaks, and immigration restrictions could fuel inflation, something that is not lost on the bond market, which is sensitive to such developments. Global Impact and Inflation Data Expectations Ameriprise Financial Chief Economist Russell Price noted that U.S. stocks were also pushed lower by weakness in overseas markets and profit-taking ahead of key U.S. inflation data. The consumer price index is due out on Wednesday, followed by producer price and retail sales data, both of which could shed light on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. These data add short-term risks for investors, Price said. "It's likely the anticipation of these numbers that is driving the modest declines we've seen in the markets today," he said. Wall Street Closes Lower as Major Indexes Slip The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) ended the day down 382.15 points, down 0.86% to 43,910.98. The S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 17.36 points, or 0.29%, to close at 5,983.99, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 17.36 points, or 0.09%, to close at 19,281.40. Amgen Under Pressure, Sliding Late The biggest decliner on the Dow was Amgen (AMGN.O), which fell more than 7% amid a sell-off that intensified toward the end of the session. Amgen shares fell after Cantor Fitzgerald said it could cause side effects from its experimental obesity drug MariTide, which showed a 4% drop in bone mineral density. Materials and Healthcare Down, Communications Gaining Among the 11 key S&P 500 sectors, Materials (.SPLRCM) saw the biggest decline, falling 1.6%. The second-largest loser was Healthcare (.SPXHC), with Amgen accounting for a significant portion of the losses. In contrast, Communications (.SPLRCL) was in the green, gaining 0.5% on the day. Fed Focus: Kashkari and Barkin Assess The markets also took notice of statements from the Federal Reserve. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday said current U.S. monetary policy remains "moderately restrictive" and is helping to slow inflation and the economy, albeit only slightly. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, meanwhile, said the Fed is prepared to take action if inflation risks intensify or the labor market shows signs of weakening. Novavax Slips as Revenue Forecast Cuts Biotech company Novavax (NVAX.O) shares fell 6% after the company announced it was cutting its full-year revenue forecast. The reason was weaker-than-expected sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, which disappointed investors. Honeywell at its peak: Elliott Investment backs it Meanwhile, Honeywell (HON.O) shares soared 3.8% to a record high. The rally came as activist investor Elliott Investment increased its stake in the company by more than $5 billion, giving investors confidence in the industrial giant's future growth. Stocks on the market: More decliners than gainers Declining stocks were significantly outnumbered on the New York Stock Exchange, with a ratio of 3.48 to 1. Meanwhile, the NYSE recorded 328 new highs and 101 new lows. Declining stocks also outnumbered advancing ones on the Nasdaq, with 3,012 of the 4,336 shares trading down and 1,328 gaining. The S&P 500 posted 55 new 52-week highs and 16 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite added 193 new highs and 129 new lows. Volumes on the rise, Asian stocks under pressure Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges reached 15.29 billion shares, above the 20-session average of 13.17 billion. Meanwhile, Asian stocks also fell on Wednesday, as a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields fueled worries ahead of key inflation data that could impact the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. Short-term bond yields rise, dollar strengthens Short-term U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply on Tuesday, hitting their highest since late July. The move also helped the dollar strengthen, hitting a more than three-month high against the Japanese yen as the market reopened after the Veterans Day holiday. Trump Policy and Inflation Expectations Since Donald Trump was elected president, rising bond yields have been a clear trend as market participants anticipate that promised tax cuts and tariffs could lead to a larger budget deficit and more government borrowing. Such a scenario, analysts say, would also fuel inflation, making it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates further. Tug of War: Stocks and Bonds Against this backdrop, the U.S. stock market enjoyed a record rally, but that optimism quickly turned to caution as bond yields began to rise. Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, noted that the move remains part of the so-called "Trump trade," which is based on the idea of more deficit spending. "However, as we have seen before, higher risk-off asset rates are starting to put pressure on equity valuations, creating a tug-of-war between the bond and equity markets," he added. Bitcoin Returns to Record High: Betting on Trump's Crypto-Friendly Policy Bitcoin is slowly but surely moving towards its all-time high, approaching the $90,000 mark. Its price is currently hovering around $88,195, reflecting market participants' expectations inspired by Trump's promise to turn the US into a global crypto hub. Investors are hoping that possible regulatory easing will give the cryptocurrency a new boost. China in Focus: Commodity Market Weakening Meanwhile, global commodities have come under pressure as traders are worried about China's economic outlook, which may have to contend with new trade tariffs from the US. The economic stimulus measures announced by Beijing have not yet inspired confidence in the ability of market participants to quickly recover the largest Asian economy. Asian Markets Tumble Asian markets are also down, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) down 0.9%, while the mainland China Property Index (.HSMPI) fell 1.3%. Chinese blue chips (.CSI) were unchanged. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) and South Korea's Kospi (.KS11) fell 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively, while Australia's (.AXJO) also fell 1.1%, weighed down by commodity stocks. US Futures and Bond Yields: Sustained Tension S&P 500 futures are down 0.1%, continuing their gains after an overnight 0.3% drop. Meanwhile, the yield on two-year Treasury notes hit 4.34%, the first time it has risen to 4.367% since late July. The 10-year yield remains at 4.43%, not far from the four-month high of 4.479% set immediately after Trump's landslide election victory. Dollar on the cusp: Yen strength raises expectations of intervention The dollar hit 154.94 yen for the first time since late July before falling back to 154.56 yen. That brings the dollar/yen pair closer to the important 155 yen threshold, which many analysts see as a potential point at which Japanese policymakers could intervene verbally to prevent the yen from weakening further. Japanese policymakers ready to act Last week, Atsushi Mimura, head of the Japanese Ministry of Finance's foreign exchange bureau, stressed that Japanese policymakers are prepared to act quickly if there are significant exchange rate movements, raising market expectations of possible intervention. Dollar Index at Spring Highs The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the currency against a basket of six major currencies including the yen and the euro, settled at 105.92, just off Tuesday's high of 106.17 — the highest since early May. Fed Rate Cut Prospects: Chances Dim The chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by a quarter point at its next meeting on Dec. 18 is now 60%, down from 77% a week ago, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The release of U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data later Wednesday could further weigh on those expectations. Economists are forecasting a 0.3% monthly increase in the core measure, which could dampen hopes for a rate cut. Euro at one-year low The euro is trading at $1.0625 after slipping overnight to $1.0595, its lowest in 12 months, reflecting the dollar's resilience amid expectations of a stronger US economy. Europe under attack: Trump's tariffs will impact As in China, concerns about US trade policy are growing in Europe. Trump said earlier that the EU would "pay a heavy price" for not importing enough US goods, putting the bloc's economy at risk and adding uncertainty to trade relations. Copper prices fall: Demand weakens On the London Metal Exchange, copper prices fell 2% to their lowest in two months. The drop reflected weakening demand for the metal, much of which comes from China, where the economy is also under pressure from global tariffs and domestic problems. Oil remains under pressure: OPEC forecasts are cut The global oil market is also going through difficult times. On Tuesday, OPEC revised down its forecasts for global oil demand growth, noting the slowdown in the Chinese economy and weakness in some other regions. Against this background, Brent crude futures rose by 0.2%, reaching $72 per barrel, and American WTI also rose by 0.2%, to $68.26, but remained close to monthly lows. Gold tries to recover On the precious metals market, gold strengthened slightly, adding 0.4% and reaching a price of about $2,607 per ounce. This small increase was an attempt by the metal to recoup losses after falling to a nearly two-month low in the previous session, caused by the strengthening dollar. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KostiaForexMart Posted November 17 Share Posted November 17 Gold ends the week with the worst performance in three years Gold ends the week with a drop, reaching the lowest level in the last three years. The market value of the precious metal has been declining throughout the week and has lost more than 4% of its value. Spot gold is currently trading at $2,561 per ounce. Experts believe that the decline in the value of gold is due to a strong dollar and expectations of a stricter US monetary policy under Trump. Also, high interest rates make gold less attractive to investors. Comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in which he stressed the need for caution in rapidly lowering rates, also affected market sentiment. Perhaps the price of gold will rise in the future and reach the $ 2,600 mark again, but the coming week will show how the market will be affected by reports on retail sales in the United States and statements by representatives of the Fed. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KostiaForexMart Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 Oil is growing amid the aggravation of the geopolitical situation Oil prices started the week with an increase caused by the aggravation of the geopolitical situation over the weekend. At the same time, concerns about the demand for oil in China, the largest consumer, and forecasts of an abundance of it in the world are holding back price growth. Brent futures rose 0.34% to $71.67 per barrel, while WTI contracts rose 0.31% to $67.50 per barrel. The decision of President Biden's administration to allow Ukraine to use American weapons for strikes on Russian territory has become a serious turn in US policy. This event may lead to an increase in the so-called «geopolitical risk premium» in the oil market, as it increases tensions in the world. A decrease in the capacity of refineries in China and a slowdown in production growth in the country are also causing concern among investors. In addition, uncertainty in global financial markets is related to the pace and scale of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. In the United States, the number of active oil drilling rigs decreased last week, reaching the lowest level since July. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KostiaForexMart Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Tesla Buzz, Nasdaq Gains, Nvidia Intrigue — Wall Street Events Nasdaq and S&P 500 Results: Nvidia on the Horizon, Tesla Surprises The Nasdaq and S&P 500 ended Monday's trading in the "green zone," recouping some of their previous losses. Investors turned their attention to Nvidia's (NVDA.O) earnings call, while Tesla's (TSLA.O) shares rose sharply on expectations of favorable policy changes from the new Trump administration. Nvidia: AI bets continue Nvidia is set to report third-quarter financial results on Wednesday, with investors awaiting answers to a key question: whether strong demand for chips is continuing and whether the AI euphoria that has driven growth this year is sustaining the market. The company, which has accounted for about 20% of the S&P 500's earnings over the past 12 months, is expected to post 25% EPS growth in the third quarter, according to analysts at BofA Global Research. However, Nvidia shares fell 1.3% after reports of new AI chips overheating in server systems. Expert Comments: Moderate Optimism "Nvidia is the last of the Magnificent Seven to report quarterly results. While we are seeing revenue and interest pick up, the current level of expectations is not as high as it was a quarter or two ago," said Carol Schleif, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office. Tesla: Jump on Expectations Tesla shares have soared, reflecting positive market sentiment about possible policy changes associated with the new administration. Such growth underscores investors' desire to seize opportunities in a rapidly changing environment. The sentiment around Nvidia and Tesla in the coming days may become an indicator of the future direction of the market, which promises many surprises for traders. US indices: Nasdaq and S&P 500 in the green, Dow Jones declines Trading on the US stock market on Monday ended with mixed dynamics of key indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) lost 55.39 points (-0.13%) to end at 43,389.60. At the same time, the S&P 500 (.SPX) added 23.00 points (+0.39%) to end at 5,893.62, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 111.69 points (+0.60%) to end at 18,791.81. Energy and Tesla: Who's Pulling the S&P 500 Up The energy sector (.SPNY) led the S&P 500, rising 1.05%. Consumer discretionary stocks (.SPLRCD) followed suit, adding 1.04%. Tesla was in the spotlight, with shares jumping 5.6% after Bloomberg's report. Donald Trump's transition team is reportedly considering loosening regulations on self-driving cars, fueling investor interest. Meanwhile, industrials (.SPLRCI) were among the laggards, posting the biggest declines among sectors. CVS Health Gains Strength In notable corporate news, CVS Health (CVS.N) shares rose 5.4%. The jump was the result of the company announcing it would expand its board by adding four new members as part of a deal with Glenview Capital Management. Experts Predict Volatility Carol Schleiff, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office, said, "There could be significant volatility in some sectors right now until we hear more details about the decisions of the new Trump team, which is expected later this month." Market Takes Stock of the Year Despite a correction following the sharp post-election rally, sentiment on Wall Street remains positive. The year 2024 is drawing to a close, demonstrating the resilience of the U.S. stock market, although its future direction will depend on political decisions and new macroeconomic factors. Stock Market: Holiday Season, Political Uncertainty, and Expectations from the Fed U.S. stock indexes ended last week with the largest losses in the last two months. Investors are worried about the slowdown in the pace of easing by the Federal Reserve, as well as uncertainty around Donald Trump's appointments to his administration. Retailers under close scrutiny The start of the week coincided with an active holiday shopping season, which shifts the market's focus to the largest retail players. Walmart (WMT.N), Lowe's Companies (LOW.N) and Target (TGT.N) are preparing to release their results, which will become an indicator of the state of American consumer demand. Balance of Power: More Winners on the NYSE On the New York Stock Exchange, gainers outnumbered decliners 1.71 to 1, with 159 new yearly highs and 88 new yearly lows. On the Nasdaq, the picture was balanced, with 2,158 gainers and 2,150 decliners. The S&P 500 posted 29 new yearly highs and 13 new yearly lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 69 new yearly highs and 265 new yearly lows. Trading Activity Beats Averages Trading volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 14.94 billion shares, exceeding the 20-day average of 14.12 billion. This activity indicates that traders are paying close attention to market events. Global sentiment: Stocks rise, dollar falls Global markets were positive on Monday, with stocks rising while the US dollar slipped, although it remains close to its yearly peaks. Investors moderated expectations about the Federal Reserve's next move, easing some of the pressure on the currency. The holiday season is coming, and its outcome is expected to add clarity to the overall picture of the US economy. Trump appointments and economic uncertainty: focus on key positions US President-elect Donald Trump is busy building his team, filling important positions in the areas of health care and defense. However, key appointments for financial markets – the Treasury Secretary and the Trade Representative – remain open, adding uncertainty to the outlook. New policies: taxes and tariffs in focus The incoming Trump administration is expected to focus on two priorities: tax cuts and higher tariffs. Economists say such measures could trigger higher inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates. Bond Yields: A Red Flag? The U.S. Treasury yield market has seen yields fall amid heightened volatility. The benchmark 10-year note has lost 1 basis point to 4.416%. "The 10-year yield reflects budget and deficit concerns, and signals underlying inflation risks if new tariffs are imposed," said Wasif Latif, president and chief investment officer at Sarmaya Partners. Inflation: Back on the Table The structure and scale of tariffs that the new administration may initiate have inflationary potential, according to Latif. "The bond market is sending a clear signal. The stock market may have paused last week, but today it seems to be riding a wave of optimism again," he said. Markets: Balancing Expectations and Risks Investors continue to balance optimism over economic stimulus measures with concerns that new tariffs and rising inflation could complicate the Fed's monetary policy. In the coming weeks, attention will focus on filling key positions and the details of the Trump administration's economic strategy. European Markets Under Pressure: Real Estate and Utilities in the Red European stock markets ended the day lower, led by weakness in the real estate and utilities sectors. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index (.STOXX) lost 0.06%, reflecting a cautious investor mood. Global Markets: Gains on Nvidia Expectations Sentiment was more positive in global markets, with the MSCI World Index (.MIWD00000PUS), which tracks stocks around the world, rising 0.35% to 845.60. Nvidia (NVDA.O) earnings on Wednesday remain in focus. Analysts expect strong revenue growth from the company, which continues to dominate the AI chip space. Nvidia shares have nearly tripled this year, becoming a key driver of the S&P 500's record highs. Dollar and Forex: Strengthening Against the Yen The U.S. dollar rose 0.29% against the Japanese yen to 154.605. However, the dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, was down 0.51% at 106.19. Despite the decline, the currency remains close to its one-year high of 107.07, reflecting the overall strength of the U.S. economy. Oil Market: Prices Rise Sharply Oil prices have shown a significant strengthening after the news of production suspension at Norway's largest Johan Sverdrup field. Brent crude futures closed at $73.30 per barrel, up 3.2%. Similarly, WTI crude also gained 3.2%, closing at $69.16 per barrel. Looking Ahead: What to Expect from Markets Investors are eagerly awaiting earnings reports from Nvidia and other tech giants, which could set the tone for future market dynamics. The oil sector continues to react to geopolitical events, while currency traders will be watching for cues from the Federal Reserve. Gold Returns: Prices Rise After a Week of Losses Gold prices have rebounded after six straight days of declines. Spot gold rose 1.93% to $2,610.73 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures rose 1.7% to $2,614.60. The weakening U.S. dollar was the main driver of the precious metal's gains. Market Calm: A Pause in News Flow "Markets should be more stable this week as the flow of macro and policy news from the U.S. slows," said Jim Reed, head of global economics and thematic research at Deutsche Bank. The agenda continues to focus on the appointment of key figures in the new Donald Trump administration. S&P 500 Forecasts: Growth in Perspective Goldman Sachs has updated its forecast for the S&P 500 (.SPX), expecting it to reach 6,500 by the end of 2025. This target implies growth of 10.3% from the current value of the index, which closed at 5,893.62. Morgan Stanley has provided a similar forecast, suggesting that the S&P 500 will reach the same level by the end of next year. The bank bases its expectations on improving corporate earnings, easing of the Federal Reserve interest rate policy in 2024, and a strengthening business cycle. Market Leaders: The Magnificent Seven Continue to Dominate Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the key drivers of the index's growth are the companies of the so-called "Magnificent Seven." These are Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta (banned in Russia), Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. Experts are confident that these giants will outperform the other 493 companies in the S&P 500 in 2024. Cautious Optimism The stabilization of the gold market, optimism about the growth of the stock index and the easing of the Fed policy next year create the basis for favorable conditions. However, markets remain sensitive to any new macroeconomic and political events that could change the current trajectory. The "Magnificent Seven" continue to lead, but by a narrow margin The shares of tech giants, known as the "Magnificent Seven", retain their leadership, but their gap with the rest of the S&P 500 index will shrink to 7 percentage points, the smallest in the last seven years, Goldman Sachs concluded in a research note published on Monday. Macro and Micro: Where are the risks hidden? "While these companies' strong financial results support their outperformance, the impact of macroeconomic factors such as trade policy and economic growth rates strengthens the position of the other 493 companies in the S&P 500," Goldman analysts emphasized. The company's forecasts include 11% growth in corporate earnings and a 2.5% increase in real US GDP by 2025. Tariffs and Bonds: A Double Threat for the Market Goldman Sachs also warned that the US stock market could face serious risks in 2025. Among them are the possible introduction of new tariffs and rising bond yields, which could put pressure on stocks. On the other hand, a more accommodative fiscal policy or friendly measures from the Federal Reserve could stimulate further growth. Economic Policy: Betting on Change Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election brought clarity to the key directions of his economic program. Tax cuts and tariff hikes are the main promises that experts believe could accelerate inflation and limit the Fed's room to maneuver with interest rates. Earnings Outlook: A Realistic View Goldman expects S&P 500 earnings per share to rise to $268 by 2025. This figure reflects a positive but cautious view of corporate earnings prospects, given possible macroeconomic changes and political risks. Results: Balancing Growth and Challenges Investors are closely monitoring market dynamics, trying to find a balance between the opportunities presented by tech giants and the risks associated with changes in economic and trade policies. A difficult road lies ahead, in which it is important to consider both local and global factors. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KostiaForexMart Posted November 20 Share Posted November 20 The main events by the morning: November 20 The United States will not change its nuclear policy, despite changes in Russian doctrine. According to Bloomberg, a Pentagon spokesman said that the United States has no data indicating that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The changes in the Russian nuclear doctrine, according to Pentagon officials, did not come as a surprise to Washington. Biden approved the supply of anti-personnel mines to Ukraine, which are prohibited by an international agreement. The United States made this decision to help Ukrainian troops deter the advance of Russian troops. The shipments include mines that are subject to the prohibitions of the Ottawa Convention, signed by 164 countries, including the United States and Russia. Japan and China continue to actively sell American government bonds. Japanese investors sold a record $61.9 billion of U.S. bonds in the three months ended September 30, and Chinese funds disposed of $51.3 billion worth of treasuries over the same period. Experts attribute these actions to the expectations of Donald Trump's return to power. Vladimir Putin will visit India to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Against this background, Bloomberg noted the failure of US efforts to isolate Russia on the world stage. At the same time, Washington cannot put pressure on India, as it considers it a key ally in the confrontation with China. Trump may lift sanctions against Russia at the end of the conflict in Ukraine. A representative of the President-elect's transition team commented on the prospect of easing and lifting Washington's sanctions against Moscow, as well as normalizing trade and economic relations between the United States and Russia. He stated that this is «certainly an opportunity if the conflict in Ukraine turns out to be resolved.» More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KostiaForexMart Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Market at crossroads amid tensions: How investors are saving themselves in an era of uncertainty Nasdaq slows down as investors ponder The tech-heavy Nasdaq ended Wednesday in the red, breaking the day's upward move. The reason was the growing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as weak financial results from Target. Investors were anxiously awaiting the release of Nvidia's quarterly results, which, however, fell short of inflated expectations. Dow in the green, S&P 500 is flat The Dow Jones managed to finish the session higher, while the S&P 500 remained virtually unchanged. Meanwhile, morning trading began with a general decline - the news of Ukraine using British Storm Shadow missiles on Russian territory stirred up the markets. This happened immediately after the announcement of the launch of American ATACMS missiles, which prompted Russia to announce a reduction in the nuclear threshold. "Fear scale" at a maximum since 2020 The Wall Street VIX volatility index, known as the "fear scale", rose to 18.79, which was a record since November 2020, and then fell to 17.24. Despite the pullback, anxiety in the markets remains high. "After yesterday's strong rally in the tech sector, today the market switched to a more defensive mode," said James Regan, head of research at D.A. Davidson. Nvidia: High Expectations Disappointed The quarterly earnings report from AI chipmaker Nvidia was the highlight of the evening. The company's shares were down 0.76% during the session and fell further after the close. Despite a fourth-quarter revenue forecast that beat analysts' average estimates, investors were expecting more. The market, which has seen a strong rally, is once again faced with a choice between risk and caution as global events add uncertainty. Tech Under Pressure: Nasdaq Slightly Down The information technology sector was under pressure, ending the session down 0.23%, which affected overall investor sentiment. The tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.11%, showing that confidence in the segment has weakened somewhat. Target: Drops in Gift Season Target shares plunged 21.4% after the company issued holiday sales and profit guidance that fell short of analysts' expectations. The company's weak third-quarter results added to investor disappointment. Target's decline also weighed on the consumer discretionary index, which lost 0.57% on the day and was the worst performer in the sector. Tesla and Amazon are down Tesla shares fell 1.15% and Amazon lost 0.85%, indicating that investors are taking a cautious approach to growth assets. These companies, which had previously been leaders in their segments, are now facing more subdued expectations. Indices: Mixed Results Among the major indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to rise 139.53 points (+0.32%), closing at 43,408.47. The S&P 500 showed almost zero dynamics, adding a symbolic 0.13 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 21.32 points (-0.11%) to 18,966.14. Nvidia: a leader or a source of risk? Despite the decline in Nvidia shares during the last session, its annual dynamics remain impressive: since the beginning of the year, the shares have almost tripled their value. According to BofA Global Research, this has brought about 20% of the return of the entire S&P 500 index over the past 12 months. Artificial intelligence: prospects and challenges "Companies are starting to share successful cases of using AI, showing how investments in new technologies bring additional income or help reduce costs," analysts comment. However, investors are cautious, preferring to wait for confirmation of the sustainability of these trends. The market is entering a new phase where high expectations collide with the reality of results, and geopolitical instability continues to shape sentiment. MicroStrategy and MARA Holdings: Rapid Growth MicroStrategy shares soared by 10%, while MARA Holdings showed an even more impressive growth of 13.9%. These companies linked to the cryptocurrency sector received support amid improving investor sentiment and growing interest in digital assets. Central Bank: December Intrigue Traders have increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates at its December meeting. This opinion was formed amid the publication of strong economic data that shows the economy is stable despite persistent inflation. NYSE and Nasdaq: The odds are stacked against the downside On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), decliners outnumbered gainers by a 1.24-to-1 ratio, with 184 new highs and 94 new lows. On the Nasdaq, the story is similar: 2,245 stocks fell, compared to 2,007 gainers, for a ratio of 1.12-to-1. The S&P 500 posted 30 new 52-week highs and 13 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 92 new highs and 163 new lows, underscoring the overall trend of uncertainty in the market. Trading Activity: Volumes Decline Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges was 13.2 billion shares, below the 20-day average of 14.32 billion. This indicates some caution among traders in the current market conditions. Global Markets: Balancing Act On the international stage, stocks showed a moderate decline, as traders continued to take into account the growing geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West. Meanwhile, Bitcoin set a new record, demonstrating investor confidence in cryptocurrencies. The dollar also strengthened after three days of decline, which became an additional signal of a change in sentiment in the currency markets. The financial world once again demonstrates a complex interplay of factors, where global events, economic data and central bank actions are intertwined into a complex picture of uncertainty. Market ends the session with variable dynamics The S&P 500 index ended trading virtually unchanged, reflecting neutral investor sentiment. The Dow Jones turned out to be in the green, while the Nasdaq showed a decline, continuing the correction after the recent rally. Among the leaders of growth, shares of companies from the healthcare, energy and materials sectors stood out. In contrast, consumer staples, financials and technology stocks were weak, becoming the session's main losers. Global indices: moderate decline The MSCI All-World Index, which measures the overall performance of global markets, fell 0.16% to 847.84. European stocks also ended the day lower, although the decline was minimal, down 0.02%. Nvidia: pressure from high expectations Investors were watching Nvidia shares closely, which came under some pressure after the release of quarterly results. Despite the decline, the situation was not catastrophic, said James St. Aubyn, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management. "Nvidia remains a key player in the market, but expectations are rising each quarter and they are becoming increasingly difficult to meet. We are at that point where high expectations are starting to put pressure," St. Aubyn added. Outlook: Market at a crossroads The session showed that market participants remained cautious, balancing expectations for further growth with concerns related to geopolitics and corporate results. Global stocks reflected the general tension, with investors weighing local and global risk factors. This week promises to be eventful, and the coming days may provide clearer signals about the direction of markets in the near future. Gold and bonds: a safe haven for investors Gold and government bond prices continued to rise on Tuesday, as markets reacted to the escalation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Such news caused increased demand for safe assets. Gold: triumph of the third session Gold prices reached a weekly high, continuing to rise for the third trading session in a row. Spot gold increased by 0.69%, reaching $2,649.89 per ounce. U.S. gold futures showed a similar gain of 0.8%, reaching $2,651.70. The rise in gold prices reflects investors' appetite for conservative strategies amid global instability. Treasury Secretary Appointment: Intrigue in Focus Also in focus is Donald Trump's choice for Treasury Secretary, which is expected to be announced as early as Wednesday. "The market is recognizing that some of Trump's policies, such as tariffs and deportations, carry inflation risks," said Lukasz Tomicki, co-founder of LRT Capital in Austin, Texas. Bond yields have risen sharply since the election, confirming market participants' expectations. Dollar: Recovering from Losses The dollar index rose 0.54% to 106.68, snapping a three-day losing streak, although current levels remain below a one-year high. The dollar also gained against key currencies, up 0.48% against the yen to 155.40 and 0.2% against the Swiss franc to 0.88410. The dollar index has gained nearly 3% since the November 5 election, underscoring confidence in the U.S. economy. Global markets are on hold: geopolitical tensions, monetary policy and personnel decisions in the US continue to influence asset movements. The latest statements and actions by leaders can radically change the trajectory of investor sentiment. Yuan under pressure: the market reacts to the central bank's decision The Chinese yuan weakened against the dollar after the People's Bank of China decided to leave its base lending rates unchanged, as analysts had predicted. In the offshore market, the yuan lost 0.22%, falling to 7.251 per dollar. Such a decline reflects the general caution of investors in the context of stable monetary policy in China. Bitcoin: a new ascent to records The cryptocurrency surprised the markets again, reaching a new record level just below $95,000. During the last session, the price of bitcoin rose by 2.53%, reaching $94,579.01. Bitcoin has risen more than 30% since Donald Trump was elected. Market participants attribute this growth to expectations of more favorable regulation of the cryptocurrency sector under the new administration. Trump and Bakkt: a signal for the cryptocurrency market Bitcoin received an additional boost from a Financial Times report that Trump Media and Technology Group, which owns the social network Truth Social, is close to acquiring all shares of the Bakkt cryptocurrency trading platform. This news has increased speculation about Trump's possible influence on the development of digital assets. Oil: prices continue to fall Oil prices fell, reflecting excess crude and gasoline inventories in the United States, which turned out to be higher than expected. Brent crude futures for January delivery fell 0.68%, closing at $72.81 per barrel. WTI contracts for December delivery ended the session down 0.75%, reaching $68.87 per barrel. The more active January WTI contract also showed a decline of 0.71%, closing at $68.75. Markets balance between news Market participants continue to closely monitor news from China, the crypto industry and the commodities sector. The influence of global economic policy and unexpected corporate events, such as a possible deal around Bakkt, create high volatility and intrigue, which creates unique opportunities for investors. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KostiaForexMart Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 Riding the Crest of a Wave: Nvidia Boosts Wall Street, Bitcoin Challenges $100K, Dollar High Stock Markets Recover After Unsettled Trading World stock indexes rose on Thursday despite mixed sentiment among investors. The main topic of trading was Nvidia's forecasts, which, while still positive, fell short of market expectations. At the same time, Bitcoin continued its confident movement, approaching the psychological mark of $100,000. Nvidia: records and disappointment Shares of Nvidia (NVDA.O), a company whose technologies are shaping the future of artificial intelligence, started the session with an impressive takeoff, reaching a historical maximum. However, their dynamics later slowed down, and by the end of the day, growth was only 0.53%. Investors were concerned about the company's forecasts: the expected revenue growth was the most modest in the last seven quarters. "Nvidia's results are still impressive, but the lack of brighter prospects for the fourth quarter may have cooled the market's enthusiasm a little," commented Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers. Wall Street: growth despite losses of giants On American exchanges, the session ended on a positive note. Major indexes rose, led by gains in utilities, financials, consumer discretionary and industrials. However, communications services remained in the red, led by significant losses in Alphabet (GOOGL.O), which fell 6%. Alphabet faces a new challenge as US authorities demand Google abandon its Chrome browser to eliminate its dominance in internet search. The lawsuit has left investors nervous and the tech giant's shares tumbling. More challenges ahead for the market Despite the upbeat close, investors continue to closely monitor corporate forecasts and the macroeconomic situation. Bitcoin expectations and the future performance of the largest tech companies remain the main themes for the market. Dow triumphs, Nasdaq moderately gains US stock indexes ended the session with varying degrees of growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.06% to 43,870.35, posting a solid gain. The broad-based S&P 500 rose 0.53% to 5,948.71. The Nasdaq Composite, however, was relatively flat, up a modest 0.03% to 18,972.42. Europe: Tech, Energy Lead Gains The MSCI Global Index, which tracks stocks around the world, also showed positive momentum, adding 0.38% to 851.05. However, the day was choppy as uncertainty swept the markets. European stocks, as represented by the STOXX (.STOXX), rose 0.41%, led by a rally in the tech and energy sectors. "There's a bit of a news vacuum in the market right now, which makes it hard to pinpoint a clear direction," said Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers. Bitcoin Heads for $100,000 The cryptocurrency market continues to impress, with Bitcoin, the world's largest digital currency, steadily heading toward the $100,000 mark. It has gained 3.75% in the past 24 hours to reach $98,005. Bitcoin has gained more than 40% since Donald Trump won the presidential election on November 5. Investors attribute this momentum to expectations that the new administration will be favorable to cryptocurrencies. Ethereum Gains Strength It's not just Bitcoin that's showing strength: Ethereum is also showing remarkable results. The cryptocurrency has gained 8.77% to end the day at $3,350.80. Treasury Secretary in Investors' Crosshairs Markets are tensely awaiting the appointment of the Treasury Secretary in the new Trump administration. The choice will be key to implementing policies that include tax cuts, deregulation, and tariff initiatives. Global markets are currently awaiting new guidance, with cryptocurrencies already betting on a looser economic policy. Investors continue to closely monitor Trump's actions and their impact on the global financial arena. A strong labor market supports the dollar The US dollar rose amid an unexpected decline in jobless claims, indicating a resilient labor market. An additional factor was the statements by Federal Reserve officials, who emphasized the possibility of further interest rate hikes. However, currency movements were mixed. The dollar fell 0.62% against the Japanese yen, falling to 154.45, but strengthened against the Swiss franc by 0.29%, reaching 0.887. Dollar Index on the Rise The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.37% to 107, its highest in 13 months. The euro, by contrast, weakened, losing 0.41% to $1.0479. Russia and Ukraine Shake Up Oil Markets Oil prices jumped sharply, gaining about 2%, after reports of a missile exchange between Russia and Ukraine, raising concerns about the stability of crude supplies to the global market. Brent crude futures rose 1.95% to $74.23 a barrel, while WTI futures added 2% to $70.10. Investors are worried that geopolitical tensions could continue to push prices higher. Fourth straight session of growth The gold market is showing positive dynamics, strengthening its position as a safe-haven asset. Spot gold rose by 0.8%, reaching $2,671.28 per ounce. US gold futures also went up, adding 0.9% and reaching $2,674.90. Gold's growth is accompanied by increasing interest from investors who are looking for stability in the face of global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks. Financial markets: new challenges and opportunities The combination of economic factors such as a strong labor market and the Fed's comments with geopolitical risks creates a volatile but opportunity-rich environment for investors. Currency and commodity markets continue to react to the rapidly changing news background, making strategy selection key to success. Why the US retains its leadership? US stocks continue to strengthen their positions, significantly outperforming global peers. Investors associate this with hopes for the implementation of the economic program of President-elect Donald Trump. But the key to success will be the administration's ability to avoid escalating trade tensions and keep the budget deficit under control. The S&P 500 (.SPX) has risen an impressive 24% in 2024, outpacing the major benchmarks in Europe, Asia and emerging markets. The premium of the US index over the MSCI index of more than 40 countries has reached 22 times expected returns, according to LSEG Datastream. This is the largest gap in the last 20 years. Tech and Economy on the US Side Despite more than a decade of US stock dominance, the gap has widened this year, thanks to robust US economic growth and strong corporate earnings. The tech sector continues to be a driving force, with the excitement around artificial intelligence driving growth for companies such as Nvidia (NVDA.O). A New Wave of Investing in Technology Nvidia, a recognized leader in AI chips, continues to be a bellwether for tech companies. The success of Nvidia and other players in the industry shows that investors are betting on the future of tech, which will be defined by artificial intelligence. "The US stock market is currently playing to its strengths: innovation, corporate profits, and economic resilience," analysts say. How long will the US maintain its leadership? While the current situation seems optimistic, the market is not immune to risks. Investors are closely monitoring the steps of the new administration, especially on tax policy, tariffs, and the budget. Any deviation from this course could be a turning point for the market. Global Competition: Can the World Catch Up with the US? While other regions, including Europe and emerging markets, are struggling with challenges such as slowing economic growth and geopolitical instability, the US continues to set the standard. However, the competition is not abating, and global markets may start to close the gap in the coming years. US stocks remain at the top, but the question is how long this position will last. Investors should be prepared for changes and watch developments closely. Taxes, deregulation and tariffs: a recipe for success? Donald Trump's economic platform of tax cuts, deregulation and the use of tariffs as leverage has provoked mixed reactions. However, many experts believe that these measures can strengthen the US leadership on the global stage, despite possible side effects such as inflation and trade conflicts. "Given the stimulative nature of the new administration's policies, US stocks will struggle to find worthy rivals at least until the end of 2025," says Venu Krishna, head of US equity strategy at Barclays. Investors vote for the US Following the November 5 election, inflows into US equity funds have reached record levels. In the week since the vote, investors have poured more than $80 billion into U.S. assets. By contrast, European and emerging markets have seen significant capital outflows, according to Deutsche Bank. This shift in priorities reflects growing confidence in the U.S. market amid expectations for higher returns and stability. U.S. companies continue to dominate One of the main reasons for the resilience of the U.S. market is impressive corporate earnings growth. LSEG Datastream forecasts S&P 500 earnings to grow 9.9% in 2024 and 14.2% in 2025. By comparison, Europe's Stoxx 600 index is expected to grow more modestly: 1.8% this year and 8.1% next year. The gap underscores the U.S. lead in corporate profitability. "America remains the region that has the highest earnings growth and maintains strong profitability," says Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. What's next for the market? Experts note that even if global markets begin to catch up with the US, the US market will remain a key point of attraction for investors due to its sustainable growth and pro-business policies. However, the question remains: will the Trump administration be able to balance ambitious reforms without causing side effects that could undermine this success? Investors will continue to watch every step, assessing how the implementation of the economic program will affect the dynamics of global markets. $14 trillion versus Europe: the imbalance is growing The largest US tech companies play a key role in the country's economic leadership. The five giants - Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet - are valued at a whopping $14 trillion. By comparison, the market capitalization of all 600 companies in the European STOXX 600 index is about $11 trillion, according to LSEG data. It is the strong performance of these corporations that accounts for much of the growth of the S&P 500 index, making it a favorite for investors. GDP growth outpaces global indicators Forecasts for the coming years show that the United States will continue to outpace other countries in terms of economic growth. According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund, US GDP will increase by 2.8% in 2024 and by 2.2% in 2025. In comparison, the economies of the eurozone countries expect modest growth: 0.8% this year and 1.2% next year. This advantage is supported by strong support for the technology sector, which continues to be the engine of development. Import duties as a pressure tool One of Donald Trump's key initiatives is to increase import tariffs. Mike Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners, believes that such measures, even with certain costs, will strengthen the position of the United States. "If tariffs in the range of 10-20% are imposed on goods from Europe, they will suffer much more than we will," Mullaney noted. Trump is betting on protecting the American market, which could become an additional lever for strengthening the economy. Republican control strengthens its position The consolidation of Republican power in Washington opens up more opportunities for Trump to implement his agenda. This has already affected economists' forecasts. Deutsche Bank has improved its expectations for US GDP growth in 2025, increasing its forecast from 2.2% to 2.5%. The political support of the Trump administration, technological leadership, and ambitious plans for economic reform make the United States a central player on the world stage. The only question is how long it will be able to maintain this advantage. Limited capabilities of Congress While tax cuts and deregulation remain the main drivers of Donald Trump's economic program, a narrow majority in Congress could limit the implementation of the most radical initiatives. Among them are tariffs, which have already caused active debate. As analysts note, the administration will take into account the reaction of the markets to avoid undue pressure. S&P 500 Forecasts: From 5100 to 6600 Experts at UBS Global Wealth Management predict that the S&P 500 index could reach 6600 next year. Such growth is due to several factors: progress in artificial intelligence, lower interest rates, tax reforms, and deregulation. However, a scenario of a full-scale trade war with China and other partners could have negative consequences. If countries begin to take retaliatory measures against American tariffs, the index could fall to 5100 points. UBS emphasizes that in this case, global markets will also suffer. Government contracts and pharmaceuticals under pressure Not all industries are enthusiastic about Trump's reforms. Concerns about reducing bureaucracy have already hit shares of government contractors. Drugmakers have also found themselves in a difficult situation after the appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a well-known vaccine skeptic, to the post of head of the Department of Health and Human Services. Such decisions create uncertainty for individual sectors of the economy, increasing volatility in the stock market. Budget deficit and bonds under pressure A radical tax cut carries the risk of increasing the national debt. It is these fears that triggered the recent sell-off in US bonds, which led to an increase in the yield on 10-year notes. Financial experts warn that a possible increase in the deficit could put pressure on the market, creating problems for long-term investments. On the brink of change: what to expect from Trump's policies? The reforms promised by the administration create both opportunities and risks. The forecasts for the US economy remain strong, but their implementation will depend on the ability to find a balance between ambitious initiatives and the reaction of the markets. Investors, in turn, are closely monitoring every step in order to adapt their strategies in time in a rapidly changing economic environment. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KostiaForexMart Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 EUR/USD: parity in the risk zone Donald Trump's return to the political arena is alarming for investors, since his economic views, as during the previous presidency, are clearly nationalistic in nature. The EUR/USD pair fell sharply, reaching a two-year low, due to fears that the trade wars that Trump will inevitably resume will lead to an economic crisis in the eurozone. Economic indicators confirmed the deterioration of the situation: the composite PMI fell below the 50 mark, signaling a reduction in economic activity. In this regard, markets expect a more aggressive monetary policy of the European Central Bank, which may lead to a fall in the euro to parity with the dollar. Such a scenario was already implemented in 2022 during the outbreak of the military conflict in Ukraine, when the euro weakened amid the energy crisis. Previously, a similar situation was observed in 2016, when the dollar rose sharply after Trump's election victory, and then weakened by 2017. Such dynamics may be repeated, especially if the minutes of the October Fed meeting turn out to be «dovish» and inflation in Europe decreases. At the moment, the dollar is holding at 107, and the euro is 104. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KostiaForexMart Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 China resists Trump's pressure by strengthening the yuan The Chinese authorities are facing new tariff threats from US President-elect Donald Trump and are strengthening control over the yuan exchange rate. Immediately after the end of the US elections, the People's Bank of China began to set the daily reference rate of the yuan above 7.2 per dollar, despite dollar fluctuations and analysts' expectations that the central bank would weaken the currency. Such actions by the central bank are reminiscent of the tensions that characterized Trump's first term, but now the stakes are even higher. China is balancing between the desire to protect its currency and the need to stimulate economic growth. This forces the central bank to seek a balance between too strong and too weak yuan exchange rate. Experts believe that the People's Bank of China will keep the yuan relatively stable against the dollar, as it was before. In response to the imposition of additional tariffs, China will rely more on domestic incentives rather than currency devaluation. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KostiaForexMart Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 The main events by the morning: November 27 The Russian ruble continues to weaken, despite the support from tax payments and stable oil quotes. On the Moscow Exchange, the yuan has exceeded the mark of 14.5 rubles, and the dollar is approaching the level of 106 rubles. The decline in the Russian currency is due to several factors: the aggravation of the geopolitical situation, new sanctions complicating foreign trade calculations, increased demand for imports and rising budget expenditures, as well as the strengthening of the dollar on world markets. Biden secretly requested an additional $24 billion from Congress to help Ukraine. Of this amount, $16 billion is supposed to be spent on replenishing American weapons stocks, and the remaining funds will be sent directly to Ukraine. Republicans opposed it, accusing Biden of trying to disrupt Donald Trump's possible peace initiatives to resolve the conflict. Walmart has abandoned the policy of inclusivity, the company's shares are growing. Walmart announced the termination of its support for diversity and inclusivity policies, including severing ties with the Center for Racial Equality and withdrawing from the LGBT rights index (the organization is recognized as extremist and banned in the Russian Federation). Against the background of this decision, the company's shares have been showing growth over the past two days. The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah has entered into force. Israel and Hezbollah have officially stopped fighting in accordance with the new peace agreement. The agreement provides for the gradual control of the Lebanese army over the border territories with the support of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon. Israel, in turn, has pledged to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon within two months. The Trump team is evaluating the possibility of direct talks with Kim Jong Un as part of a «new diplomatic push.» Trump's main goal is to restore communication channels between Washington and Pyongyang, but further political contacts and their schedule have not yet been established. It is also noted that these efforts can reduce the risk of armed conflict. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KostiaForexMart Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 Inflation and weak tech forecasts: Why Wall Street markets closed lowe Wall Street investors react with losses: Nasdaq in the red amid inflation fears Yesterday's trading on Wall Street ended with losses for all major indices, with the Nasdaq among the leaders of decline. The tech sector suffered significant losses ahead of Thanksgiving as traders grew concerned that the Federal Reserve might back off from aggressive rate cuts amid lingering inflation concerns. Strong Data, Weak Progress The U.S. economy posted solid growth figures, with consumer spending data showing a strong increase in October. However, despite the positive results, efforts to reduce inflation appear to be running into trouble, adding to traders' concerns that the Federal Reserve could take a more cautious stance on interest rates. Markets Expect Fed to Be More Tight Traders on CME's FedWatch platform have increased their bets by 25 basis points, according to the latest calculations, in anticipation that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at its December meeting. However, rates are expected to remain unchanged in January and March. New Trade Threats and Their Impact on the Market Investors are also concerned about the new possible economic consequences of President-elect Donald Trump's statements, who proposed introducing new tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China. These measures will remain in place until countries take the necessary steps to combat illegal migration and drug trafficking. In particular, Trump announced 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports and 10% on Chinese goods if countries do not take action against fentanyl and illegal migrants. Risks to Inflation: Experts' Opinions Economists at Goldman Sachs expressed concern about the possible long-term consequences of this approach. In their recent report, they warned that further escalation of tariff policy could delay inflation's return to the 2% target. These risks put additional pressure on markets, increasing uncertainty in the economic situation. Unresolved Issues and Uncertainty in Markets So, amid strong economic data, trade threats and uncertainty over Fed policy, investors continue to search for clear guidance, which in turn continues to influence the behavior of markets. Wall Street ends the day lower: Tech sector under pressure On Wall Street, indices closed lower on Wednesday, weighed down by strong economic data and concerns about the future policy of the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 138.25 points, or 0.31%, to close at 44,722.06. The S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 22.89 points, or 0.38%, to close at 5,998.74. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) was the biggest loser, falling 115.10 points, or 0.60%, to 19,060.48. Global markets also under pressure It wasn't just U.S. stock indexes that suffered a decline. The MSCI index, which tracks global markets (.MIWD00000PUS), lost 0.10%, falling 0.84 points to 858.24. In Europe, the STOXX 600 (.STOXX) ended the day down 0.19%, also confirming the trend of global market sentiment weakening. Tech sector on the brink of collapse Stocks of major players in the tech sector attracted particular attention in the markets. For example, Dell (DELL.N) shares fell 12% after the company published disappointing forecasts for quarterly results. HP (HPQ.N) shares also fell 6%, weighing on the overall sentiment in the information technology sector. The sector's index (.SPLRCT) fell 1.2%, highlighting the weakness of the leading tech giants. Megacaps fall: Nvidia and Microsoft in the red The biggest tech companies were not spared the negative trends either. Nvidia (NVDA.O) and Microsoft (MSFT.O) shares showed significant declines, which exacerbated the overall decline in the sector. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index (.SOX) lost 1.8%, showing a weak performance for one of the most profitable industries. Growing interest in small caps, but muted growth in Russell 2000 At the same time, the Russell 2000 index (.RUT), which tracks small company stocks, was a bit on the sidelines of the general decline. After a record high earlier in the week, the index rose by 0.1%, which was the only positive moment among the major stock indices on the trading day. Results of the day: markets await further signals So, the latest trading on Wall Street demonstrated restraint among investors. Amid uncertainty related to possible decisions of the Federal Reserve and the state of the global economy, market participants tend to be cautious. Amid weak forecasts for the largest tech companies and uncertainty around tariff policy, the influence of these factors continues to affect investor sentiment. Investors react to economic data: high growth rates and caution from the Fed Markets continued to demonstrate restrained sentiment despite positive economic data. Investors were closely watching reports that showed the U.S. economy continued to grow at a solid pace in the third quarter. Notably, new jobless claims fell again last week, bolstering expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut rates in December. Inflation in Focus: Fed Faces Choice However, despite the strong macroeconomic data, inflation remains under pressure. Scott Welch, chief investment officer at Certuity, noted that inflation was slightly above the Fed's desired levels, casting doubt on the possibility of further rate cuts. In his view, this could force the Fed to adopt a more cautious stance. Trump Tariff Policy: A New Challenge for the Economy Investors are also concerned about the possible impact of President Donald Trump's tariff policy. Welch stressed that if the proposed tariffs are implemented, they could exacerbate inflationary pressures, which in turn would complicate the task for the Fed, which must balance economic data with the policy initiatives of the new administration. Uncertainty at the Fed meeting: Will rates be cut? The minutes of the Federal Reserve's November meeting, released on Tuesday, showed that Fed members remain divided on the issue of future rate cuts. Despite the positive data, they are still unsure how much current rates are constraining economic growth and what approach to take in response to inflation threats and external risks. S&P 500 on the verge of historic gains, but not without difficulties Despite these difficulties, the S&P 500 continues to gain strength, heading for its biggest monthly gain in all of 2024. The reading also marked the sixth straight month of gains in seven months, underscoring positive expectations about the impact of President Trump's economic policies on local businesses and the broader economy. Investor Disappointment: Workday Shares Slip Not all sectors of the market are seeing positive results, however. Workday (WDAY.O) shares fell 6.2% after the company reported weaker-than-expected subscription revenue guidance. Weak customer spending on its human capital management software weighed on the stock and the broader tech sector. Takeaway: Uncertainty and Balancing Act Overall, the market remains in a state of uncertainty, given both economic factors and political risks related to U.S. foreign trade policy. The Federal Reserve, in turn, will be forced to find a balance between supporting growth and controlling inflation, which will be an important factor in determining the future direction of the stock market in the coming months. US Stock Market: Stock Performance and Holiday Expectations The New York Stock Exchange saw a predominance of positive sentiment among stocks on Wednesday. The number of advancing stocks significantly outnumbered the decliners, with a ratio of 1.64 to 1. At the same time, the number of new highs on the NYSE reached 406, while there were only 54 new lows. This indicates that most stocks on the exchange continued to move higher. S&P 500 and Nasdaq: New Highs Amid Market Activity The S&P 500, in turn, noted 79 new 52-week highs, while not recording a single new low. This confirms the resilience of the index's main stocks. The Nasdaq Composite demonstrated even more noticeable growth, recording 136 new highs and 71 new lows, which also reflects positive sentiment in the tech sector. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KostiaForexMart Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 The main events by the morning: November 29 Steelmaking is declining in Russia. According to data for January-October 2024, steel production decreased by 7% compared to the same period last year and amounted to 59.1 million tons. The largest drop was shown by Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works (MMK) – by 12% and Severstal – by 8%. China will restrict exports of tungsten, an important metal used in weapons and semiconductors starting December 1. The new rules require export licenses, which is associated with increased control over dual-use goods. These measures are being taken against the background of strained relations with the United States, which will ban its contractors from purchasing tungsten from China from 2027. The head of the Russian Defense Ministry arrived in North Korea today. During the visit, a number of meetings with representatives of the military and military-political leadership of the DPRK are planned to discuss bilateral cooperation. The Japanese Prime Minister announced his desire to conclude a peace treaty with Russia. After the outbreak of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine, Japan imposed sanctions against Russia, which is why Moscow refused to negotiate the status of the Kuril Islands and conclude peace. In his speech, the Prime Minister did not mention the decision to maintain these sanctions until the end of hostilities. The Brazilian real has updated its historical low on concerns about state finances. Paired with the US dollar, the rial fell to 5.9998 per dollar. Investors are evaluating the long-awaited measures of the administration of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to ensure budget balance: spending cuts of 70 billion reais ($12 billion), personal income tax exemption for people with the lowest wages and an increase in this tax for high-income people. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KostiaForexMart Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 02.12.2024 Despite the acceleration of annual inflation in the Eurozone from 2.0% to 2.3%, the euro failed to rise and even weakened. Although the scale of the decline was limited, it still seems illogical. The issue is that most market participants focus on the data highlighted by the media, which tends to emphasize monthly figures rather than annual ones. As it turns out, while annual inflation increased, consumer prices in monthly terms decreased by 0.3%. From the perspective of macroeconomic analysis, annual data holds more significance, as it is less prone to distortions caused by seasonal fluctuations. On the other hand, due to these seasonal factors, monthly data can appear quite odd, making conclusions based on them fundamentally flawed. It's worth noting that all reports and meeting minutes from key central banks refer specifically to annual inflation, not monthly changes. Thus, the European Central Bank's decisions will be based on accelerating annual inflation to 2.3%, not the 0.3% monthly price decline. However, the media currently gives the impression that the ECB might continue to lower interest rates. This perception is likely to strengthen further, supported by labor market data. According to forecasts, the unemployment rate in the Eurozone is expected to rise from 6.3% to 6.4%. Therefore, the euro may experience a slight further decline. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KostiaForexMart Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 The main events by the morning: December 3 Russia will receive $1.2 billion from the BRICS bank for the first time in two years. The new BRICS Development Bank is investing $1.2 billion in four projects in Russia, according to the Finance Ministry. The funding will be directed to the preservation of cultural heritage, the development of tourism, the modernization of the judicial system and housing and communal services. Due to sanctions, funds can flow through complex financial schemes. Trump's «peace plan» for Ukraine, the «Kellogg Plan», has leaked to the network. The media published the alleged details of the «Kellogg Plan» based on OSW Report 2024 data. The main points include lifting isolation from Russia, peace talks, economic incentives for Moscow, support for Ukraine and pressure on Kiev. There are no official confirmations yet. Chinese banks are ceasing operations with sub-sanctioned Russian banks. Chinese financial institutions have begun to restrict interaction with Russian banks that have recently been sanctioned by the United States. The Bank of China has already imposed restrictions, and the Bank of Kunlun warns of the impending termination of payments by sub-sanctioned banks. The construction of the last section of the Russia–China gas pipeline has been completed. China has commissioned the last section of the gas pipeline connecting Russia and China. The Nantong–Luzhi section in Jiangsu Province has become the final part of the project, which is now fully operational, according to a statement from the Chinese Pipeline Management Corporation. The United States may lift sanctions against Bashar al-Assad to weaken Syria's ties with Iran and Russia. According to Reuters, Washington is considering lifting sanctions against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The main goal is to reduce Tehran's influence and block the supply of weapons to the Lebanese Hezbollah. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KostiaForexMart Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Forecast for GBP/USD on December 4, 2024 The movement of the pound sterling within the range of 1.2612–1.2708 since November 14 appears to be consolidation, with false breakouts on both sides on November 22 and 29. Following this logic, the price may now attempt a genuine breakout below the lower boundary of the range, targeting a retest of the 1.2510 support. However, this plan faces resistance from the Marlin oscillator, which has turned upward from the neutral zero line on the daily chart. If this is not the start of a sustained upward movement, it is at least a sign of consolidation. As a result, the price may remain within the range for another 1–2 days until the release of U.S. employment data on Friday. Today, the UK will release November PMI indexes. Business activity in the services sector is expected to decline from 52.0 to 50.0, while the composite PMI may weaken from 51.8 to 49.9. This could increase the likelihood of the price dropping below the range. On the H4 chart, the price is struggling with the balance line support. The Marlin oscillator has twice turned downward from the zero line, increasing the likelihood of the price successfully breaking through the support. Below the 1.2612 level, the price will encounter the MACD line at 1.2582. For a successful break of this level, the price might first consolidate below 1.2612. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KostiaForexMart Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Forecast for USD/JPY on December 5, 2024 Bank of Japan representatives are increasingly expressing concerns about a rate hike ahead of their December 19 meeting (Nakamura), traditionally citing a "broader range of data." Given the Bank of Japan's caution about sudden market changes and its intention to provide prior notice to investors regarding its actions, the rate may remain unchanged at this meeting. If the price consolidates above the 150.83 level, further growth to 153.60 becomes likely, with the pair potentially reaching this level before the Federal Reserve meeting on December 18. On the 4-hour chart, growth has only begun following a double divergence with the Marlin oscillator when the price approached the target range of 148.18/50. The initial impulse has been achieved, but the price needs to consolidate above the MACD line at the 151.24 mark, corresponding to yesterday's high. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KostiaForexMart Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 The Fed remains cautious despite expectations of a rate cut The head of the Federal Reserve System, Jerome Powell, in his recent comments stressed that the strong US economy gives the central bank the opportunity to be cautious about changes in interest rates. According to Powell, the economy is in good condition, and there is no reason to expect changes in this direction. At the same time, despite the reduction in interest rates by the Fed, the cost of borrowing for citizens has not changed significantly. This is because rates on most loans, such as mortgages and credit cards, depend on the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds, which have recently reached high levels despite efforts to reduce inflation. Powell noted that the current economic situation leaves many uncertainties, including in light of possible changes in the trade policy of the new administration of President Donald Trump. He also expressed hope for constructive relations with the new Government. The issue of the Fed's independence also remains relevant. Some of Trump's economic advisers have suggested giving the president more influence over the regulator's decisions, although many experts emphasize the importance of the central bank's independence for the stability of the economy and the US dollar. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KostiaForexMart Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 EUR/USD Weekly Preview: CPI, PPI, ECB In two weeks, the currency market will de facto go on a Christmas/New Year vacation, which will not end until early January. But before leaving, traders will "slam the door loudly," reacting to the key events of December. The upcoming week is packed with significant events for the EUR/USD pair. Key November inflation data will be released in the US, and the European Central Bank will hold its final meeting of the year in Frankfurt. Monday-Tuesday On Monday, traders will focus on China's November inflation report. With an otherwise empty economic calendar, this release could significantly influence USD pairs, but only if the results deviate from forecasts. In October, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 0.3% (forecast: 0.4%). The indicator shows a downward trend for the second month, reflecting weakening consumer demand. November's CPI is expected to rebound to 0.4%. If inflation unexpectedly slows further, the USD might gain indirect support due to heightened risk-off sentiment. Wholesale inventory data will be published later during the US session, though it's a secondary macroeconomic indicator unlikely to significantly impact EUR/USD. On Tuesday, the US will release the labor cost index, measuring the annual change in employer expenses per employee (this considers not only salary deductions but also taxes and payments to other funds). This lagging indicator could influence the USD only if it diverges significantly from expectations. The index is forecasted to decrease to 1.3% in Q3, following drops to 1.9% in Q2 and 2.4% in Q1. Wednesday Wednesday brings the week's most crucial macroeconomic report: the November US Consumer Price Index (CPI). Given recent Federal Reserve statements, this report could determine the outcome of the Fed's January meeting and possibly the December one. For instance, Fed Governor Christopher Waller has indicated support for pausing the easing cycle if the data contradict forecasts of slowing inflation—that is, if the CPI and PPI accelerate again. At the same time, Waller spoke about the pause not hypothetically but in the context of the December meeting. Similarly, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that rate hikes might resume if inflation accelerates. For the most part, the rest of the members of the U.S. central bank called for a slowdown in the pace of policy easing but did not rule out "other scenarios." Among them is Jerome Powell, who has also recently toughened his rhetoric. In other words, the CPI is significant in current circumstances. According to forecasts, Headline CPI is expected to rise to 2.7% YoY (up from 2.6% in October). If realized, it could signal a reversal in the six-month downward trend seen through September. In October, the Headline CPI unexpectedly increased, and if it comes out at least at the forecast level (not to mention the "green zone") in November, then we can already talk about a certain trend, which will not please the Fed representatives. The Core CPI is expected to remain at 3.3% YoY. The indicator was at the same level in October and September. The stagnation of the core CPI adds to Fed concerns amid rising overall inflation. Thursday Thursday is another critical day for EUR/USD, with the ECB's final meeting of the year taking center stage during the European session. The base-case scenario suggests a 25-basis-point rate cut. Additionally, the ECB will release its quarterly projections on rates and macroeconomic indicators. After the latest data on the growth of the European economy and inflation in the eurozone, the 50-point scenario is not even hypothetically considered. Therefore, reducing the rate by 25 points will not substantially impact the euro and, consequently, on EUR/USD. Traders are interested in further prospects for easing the monetary policy. Therefore, the market's main attention will be focused on the main points of the accompanying statement and the rhetoric of Christine Lagarde. Recent Eurozone data shows that Q3 GDP growth reached 0.4% QoQ (forecast: 0.2%), the strongest growth rate since the beginning of the year before last. On an annual basis, GDP increased by 0.9% (forecast: 0.8%), the strongest growth rate since the first quarter of 2023. As for inflation, Headline CPI rose to 2.0% (forecast: 1.9%), and the core remained at the previous month's level, 2.7%, with a forecast of a decrease of 2.6%. Inflation of service prices (one of the report's most important components, which is closely monitored by the ECB) remained at a high level—3.9%. These figures suggest that the ECB will continue easing monetary policy moderately. During the post-meeting statement, Lagarde is expected to emphasize a data-dependent approach. The Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released in the US session, another vital inflation indicator alongside CPI. The Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released in the US session, another vital inflation indicator alongside CPI. Forecasts suggest that the headline PPI is expected to accelerate to 2.5% YoY, while the core PPI is expected to rise to 3.2% YoY. A stronger PPI print could support the USD, especially if CPI also meets or exceeds forecasts (not to mention the "green zone"). Friday Eurozone industrial production data will be published on Friday. In monthly terms, the indicator should show positive dynamics, but it will remain in the negative area (-0.1% in October against -2.0% in September). In annual terms, the indicator should fall to -3.0% after falling to -2.8%. The Import Prices Index will be released in the US session. Though secondary, it provides additional context for inflation trends. Forecasts indicate a rise to 1.0% YoY in November (up from 0.8% in October and -0.1% in September). Conclusions The spotlight will be on US inflation reports (CPI and PPI) and the ECB meeting. Accelerating US inflation would boost USD demand since, in this case, traders will "remember everything": Mary Daly's hawkish statements, strong Nonfarms, and pro-inflationary policies under the incoming Trump administration. Meanwhile, the ECB's dovish tone amid rising Eurozone inflation could weigh on the euro. Short positions on EUR/USD become relevant if the pair breaks below the 1.0530 support level (the middle Bollinger Band and Tenkan-sen line on D1). The first target is 1.0470 (the lower line of Bollinger Bands, coinciding with the lower border of the Kumo cloud on H4), and the second target is 1.0420 (the lower line of Bollinger Bands on D1). 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KostiaForexMart Posted Tuesday at 12:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:40 PM The main events by the morning: December 17 The European Union has imposed the 15th package of sanctions against Russia. The construction giant PIK and the airline UTair, as well as the head of Avtodor Vyacheslav Petushenko, were subject to restrictions. The sanctions affected 52 tankers carrying Russian oil, top managers of fuel and energy sector companies and heads of Gazprom subsidiaries: Gazprom Fleet, Gazstroyprom and Gazprom LNG Technologies. The Moscow Stock Exchange index fell to a one-year low, reaching 2,395 points. The market is reacting negatively to the speeches of the president and the Minister of Defense, new sanctions and the expectation of a decision on the key rate. Rostelecom's shares have fallen to the lowest value since 2022 – 50 rubles. The collapse of MTS Bank continues, whose securities have lost 60% since the IPO. The largest drop was demonstrated by «Samolet» – since the beginning of the year, the company's shares have depreciated by 79%, falling from 3,851 to 845 rubles per paper. Donald Trump has announced plans to impose or increase tariffs against a number of countries. At a press conference at the Mar-a-Lago estate, the president-elect stressed that the United States will be guided by the principle of reciprocity: if a trading partner imposes duties on American goods, the United States will impose similar measures in response. The list of countries potentially subject to new duties may include Brazil, India and China. US Senator Bernie Sanders criticized the US defense budget, which reached almost $900 billion. According to him, inflated defense spending limits funding for health and social care programs. Sanders also spoke about large-scale fraudulent schemes at the Pentagon, where defense companies overestimate the value of contracts by 40%. South Korea has imposed sanctions against 7 individuals and 13 organizations from Russia. The reason was the accusation of illegal military cooperation with the DPRK. In total, 11 people and 15 organizations were included in the list, including two generals of the Korean People's Army, a rocket engineer and one officer. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KostiaForexMart Posted Wednesday at 01:08 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:08 PM The main events by the morning: December 18 Gazprom's shares have collapsed to their lowest level since 2009. Gazprom's securities continued to fall for the fourth day in a row, reaching 107 rubles per share. This is a record low for the last 14 years. The main reason was the EU's rejection of interest in the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine and the transition to alternative energy sources, which caused a negative reaction from European gas companies. Elon Musk is under the gun of the US authorities. SpaceX and its founder Elon Musk have been under scrutiny by the American authorities. According to The New York Times, Musk is suspected of possible violations related to the secrecy of state secrets. Silver will be the main asset of 2025. Experts at Heraeus Precious Metals predict an increase in the value of silver on the global market in the range of $28 to $40 per troy ounce in 2025. Silver is expected to rise in price faster than gold, which makes it a promising investment asset. The cost of bitcoin has updated another historical high, exceeding $ 108 thousand. Crypto investors continue to buy, expecting that the newly elected US President Donald Trump will create more favorable conditions for the crypto industry and include bitcoin in the US strategic reserve. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol ignores the investigation. He did not appear for questioning at the Office of Anti-Corruption Investigations in the case of the rebellion. Yeltsin's powers were suspended as a result of impeachment in parliament. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KostiaForexMart Posted Thursday at 05:02 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:02 PM EUR/USD: Powell arranges sell-off. EUR plunges to 2-year low. Parity on horizon? The EUR/USD pair plunged to 1.0351 with a single-session fall of 1.32%. The instrument recorded its lowest close in two years. This slump was triggered by unexpectedly hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, which made it clear that no rate cuts are anticipated in January. According to the updated FOMC forecasts, only two rate cuts are expected in 2025, significantly fewer than previous estimates. This adjustment in expectations led investors to reassess their positions. As a result, this entailed a sharp drop in stock indices, a rise in US Treasury yields, and, consequently, a strengthening of the dollar. Despite being just six days before Christmas, markets faced another unpleasant surprise. Under the influence of the Fed's hawkish statement, the S&P 500 index tumbled by 2.95%, marking its steepest post-meeting decline since 2001. The reaction also extended to the debt market. Higher yields on US Treasuries compared to other countries provide investors with an additional incentive to invest in the US. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury bills jumped by 11.5 basis points, surpassing 4.5% for the first time since May. In comparison, the yield on 10-year German bonds is only about 2.29%. According to strategists, the Fed's intention to moderate the pace of rate cuts is bearish for the US dollar due to the widening short-term interest rate differentials with the eurozone. Analysts are closely monitoring changes in the FOMC's dot plots, which reflect individual committee members' expectations for future interest rates. The latest snapshot indicates a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points in 2025 (two steps of 25 bps each), twice lower than the 100 bps forecasted in September and below the 75 bps expected by market consensus before the update was released. The revised forecasts reinforced the outlook for a higher funds rate, with the long-term median dot now projected at 3.0%. This suggests that the current rate-cutting cycle will end at a higher level than previously anticipated. At the same time, economic forecasts were revised upwards: the annual inflation rate for 2025 is now expected at 2.5%, up from the earlier estimated 2.1% increase. Most FOMC members believe core inflation will continue to decline in 2025. Jerome Powell noted that the latest rate cut was a difficult decision and confirmed the Fed's intention to slow the pace of monetary policy easing. He emphasized that before any further rate cuts, the central bank expects clearer progress in reducing inflationary pressures and will not tolerate inflation persistently above the 2% target. As a result, markets are revising their expectations, preparing for a prolonged pause in the Fed's easing cycle. This scenario could keep the US dollar elevated through 2025, further pressuring the euro. Could parity be on the horizon? Temporary rebound in EUR/USD During Thursday's European session, the EUR/USD pair managed to climb back above the 1.0400 level, as the bullish momentum of the US dollar slightly weakened following Wednesday's sharp rally. However, fundamental signals still do not provide a basis for a shift in the overall negative trend. Both short-term and long-term exponential moving averages (EMAs) reveal the bearish trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) broke below the lower border of the bearish range at 20.00 to 40.00, signaling the formation of a new downtrend. From a technical viewpoint, the key support level for the EUR/USD pair could be 1.0200, provided it breaks below the two-year low at 1.0330. In the case of an upward correction, the nearest significant obstacle for bulls would be around the 1.0500 zone, where the 20-day EMA is recognized. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KostiaForexMart Posted Friday at 11:41 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:41 AM The main events by the morning: December 20 There is a new crisis in the United States: the government is on the verge of a shutdown due to the failure of the funding bill. Republicans proposed a document that was supported by only 174 members of the House of Representatives, while 235 opposed it. If the bill had been approved, the federal government would have received funds to work until March 2025, and the debt ceiling would have been suspended until January 2027. The International Monetary Fund believes that the Russian economy is growing due to the rapid growth of wages. The Director of Communications of the foundation noted that the growth of the Russian economy is due to strong private consumption, supported by a tough labor market and rapid wage growth. Corporate investments also play an important role. Sanctions against Russia have led to an increase in business tourism. Already, almost 20% of business trips are to foreign destinations, the leaders among which are China and the UAE. Next year, the number of business trips may increase by another 15-20%. This is due to the desire of businesses to explore new areas for doing business within the Russian Federation or in friendly countries. Donald Trump has threatened the EU countries that they must fill the trade deficit with the United States through purchases of oil and gas. Otherwise, the United States will impose widespread tariffs. Bitcoin fell below $95,000 after the decision of the US Federal Reserve System to put the key rate cut on pause. The Fed also raised its inflation forecast for next year. Experts believe that the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, may become a new villain for the crypto industry, replacing the head of the SEC, Gensler. Thailand is considering the possibility of legalizing bitcoin as a means of payment. The country's finance minister proposed starting an experiment in tourist regions such as Phuket and Hua Hin, where it would be possible to allow the use of cryptocurrency in restaurants, cafes and shops. This will simplify the lives of tourists who will be able to pay with digital assets without having to look for currency exchange offices. More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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