Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 31, 2016

 

Upbeat data from Eurozone’s two biggest economies helped cushion the blow of a firming USD against the Euro as the bloc currency records session highs, although the pair is still underperforming.

 

Preliminary CPI of Germany, the EU’s largest economy, was in line with the forecast 0.3 percent growth from the previous reading’s decline of 0.4 percent. France, the second largest, recorded a higher-than-expected 0.6 percent GDP for the first three months of the year, beating the 0.5 percent expectations.

 

The Eurozone Economic Sentiment report also showed that consumers have a positive outlook on the economy. It printed 104.7 points in May, up from 104.0 last month.

 

However, these are not enough to offset the bulls surrounding the USD after the Fed Chairwoman herself said that a rate hike is appropriate given the US’ economic conditions.

 

The pair is now trading at 1.1149, peaking at 1.1156 in early European session. The first support is at 1.1067 and 1.0937 subsequently. The first resistance is at 1.1215 and 1.1357 subsequently.

 

The MACD indicator is in negative position. The price is rising.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: June 1, 2016

 

This week's primary event would be the conference of the ECB in the Eurozone. There are assumptions that the European regulator will leave its monetary policy unchanged.

 

The currency pair tried to regain on Tuesday. The resistance occurs at 1.1200 while the support stands at 1.1130.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative location which signifies to sell. Meanwhile, the RSI is in a neutral zone which does not provide clear signals.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: June 1, 2016

 

The pound managed to recover from its lows. Generally, the dollar stayed solid contrary to the pound as an aftermath of Janet Yellen's speech last Friday. The market hopes for new drivers for a further activity.

 

The resistance occurs at the level of 1.4560 while the support stands at 1.4480.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative location which signifies to sell. Meanwhile, the RSI indicator is near to the oversold zone.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: June 6, 2016

 

The poor data of Non-farm Payrolls could be a factor of the Fed rate hike delay. The EUR/USD pair bounced up last Friday. It surpassed the levels of 1.1200, 1.1250 and 1.1300 and reached the level of 1.3730. This cause the pair to look bullish.

 

The resistance occurs at the level of 1.1370 while the support stands at 1.1300.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive location, which signifies growth and is bullish. The RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: June 7, 2016

 

The Aussie dollar is holding on to the bulls with the latest decision from the RBA to keep interest rate at 1.75 percent, a widely-expected move based on strong economic indicators. The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7441 and rising.

 

The first support is seen at 0.7312 and 0.7167 subsequently while the first resistance is at 0.7530 and 0.7649 subsequently.

 

Australia’s GDP rose by 1.1 percent in the first quarter of 2016, with an annualized growth of 0.2 percent, the quickest in four years. However, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that low inflation and an appreciating domestic currency may pose greater risks to the economy. The RBA board expect inflation, which is at an annual rate of 1.3 percent, to reach their target of 2 to 3 percent.

 

A suddenly dovish Yellen is hurting the USD which rallied last week after a rate hike becomes more possible at Fed’s policy meeting in June.

 

The MACD indicator is in positive location. The price is climbing.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: June 9, 2016

 

The RBNZ propelled the NZD to a 12-month high, pushing it through 0.71 levels against the USD after the central bank’s decision to keep interest rates at 2.25 percent. The bird has been hovering at 69 cents for quite a long time.

 

Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler left the door open for monetary easing and promised it to be “accommodative.” The central bank is specially keeping an eye on low inflation and expects it to firm and reach their target in the long term, although short-term inflation has been steady.

 

“We expect inflation to strengthen reflecting the accommodative stance of monetary policy, increases in fuel and other commodity prices, an expected depreciation in the New Zealand dollar and some increase in capacity pressures,” the bank said in a statement.

 

Uncertainty in the bank’s statements are keeping us from declaring the upside bullish, but a rate above 0.7146 will shift our outlook to a bullish one. NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.7125.

 

The first support is at 0.6960 and 0.6910 subsequently, while the first resistance occurs at 0.7045 and 0.7080 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in positive location. The price is rising.  

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: June 13, 2016

 

The Euro is holding onto 1.12 cents against the USD, effectively avoiding a bearish trend but keeping the risks on the upside. Pro-Brexit campaigns are gaining, questioning the stability of the European Union.  

 

It’s a quiet day for the EUR/USD, but Tuesday will bring in trade data from Spain and Italy followed by France on Wednesday. The region’s trade balance is on the radar on Thursday, as well as inflation.

 

The USD is posting gains against its major peers due to bullish initial jobless claims late last week, reversing losses from dismal nonfarm payrolls in the beginning of the month. This week’s highlight is Fed’s interest rate decision which is expected to remain at 0.5 percent, although some investment firms are forecasting a rate cut.

 

The pair is trading within a 50-pip range and is currently at 1.1261. The price is climbing.

 

The first support is at 1.1216 and 1.1179 subsequently. The first resistance is at 1.1299 and 1.1327 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in positive location.  

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: June 14, 2016

 

Economic data coming this week are overshadowed by a gaining Brexit campaign. Research firm ICM’s latest survey showed the Team ‘Leave’ six points ahead, shaking the strength of the GBP which has been experiencing volatility in recent months.

 

GBP/USD took a tumble in early session but has been playing teeter totter with each other. USD is on a volatile ride as well with the upcoming FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Thursday will see the Bank of England announce its interest rate decision that may help push the sterling to bullish territory.

 

The pair is trading at a wide range between 1.3839 and 1.5931 on the daily charts.

 

Traders are closely watching public opinion on the Brexit. Little impact is expected from the CPI and PPI today as well as from the unemployment rate on Wednesday.

 

The first support is at 1.3839 and 1.3724. The first resistance is at 1.4232 and 1.4300. The MACD indicator is in negative position. The spot exchange is 1.4130 and continues to slide.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: June 20, 2016

 

The pound is keeping its strength against most of its counterparts as it enters the week of the EU referendum. Bulls are protecting the sterling as buying interest continue to increase. GBP/USD has broken through 1.46 cents and has shown no solid sign of a downtrend.  

 

The pair surpassed numerous resistance but bottomed at 1.4359 today. It then reached a high of 1.4672. The spot exchange is now at 1.4626, and can break into 1.47 levels in the near term with a switch in public sentiment. Polls show that voters are shifting their support towards the “Remain” campaign.

 

The MACD indicator is in neutral location and we are expecting further price increase as bears fail to take the pair.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: June 21, 2016

 

The Aussie dollar is benefiting from a volatile sterling and euro as investors seek a safe heaven in the AUD. The RBA meeting minutes headlined the impetus this week. The Board implied the importance of a weak domestic currency to support Q2 and Q3’s GDP growth. However, the minutes did not have a significant impact on the AUD/USD.

 

Australia’s house price index printed surprising numbers, declining by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of the year compared to the previous quarter’s 0.2 percent growth. Analysts expected a 0.8 percent rise in Q1.

 

Although AUD/USD is trading at 0.7487, the upsurge is limited due to easing commodity prices. The USD has been fairly quiet and is waiting for Yellen’s statement later on the semi-annual monetary policy report.

 

The first support can be found at 0.7454 and 0.7413 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7500 and 0.7550. The MACD indicator is positive location and the price is rising. However we are not expecting the AUD to break into the 0.75 level anytime today.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: June 30, 2016

 

 

Followed by the Consumer Confidence report in the Eurozone, the euro currency has not made any alteration with its positions. Concurrently, the ECB will not whisk with the further monetary policy easing. There should be a proof that the economy of the Eurozone is declining before it implements any action.  

 

Slowly, the euro managed to step up continuously. It is showed in the 4-hour chart that the instrument stayed in a downside channel and the euro increased to its upper boundary.  The pair was likely to regain 0.47% and has made a new local high at 1.1130. The resistance occurs at 1.1130 while the support stands at 1.1000.

 

 

The MACD indicator was kept standing on a negative location while its histogram increased. The indicator will also give buy signals while its histogram increases. RSI indicator is in an impartial location and its growth from the oversold area is a buy signal.

 

The price is under the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which goes downwards indicating a sell signal. The 200-day moving average is a sturdy resistance for the euro which it touched yesterday. The EUR/USD tries to revert into the ascending channel on the daily chart.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: July 4, 2016

 

 

The Japanese government believed that the cause of the household spending enfeeblement in May was the continuous breakdown of the consumer prices. This event leads to a further compression to the Bank of Japan which is discontented with the present sinewy of the Japanese yen.

 

 

The instrument reduced from a local high. The pair is directed to revert under 102.50. The resistance occurs at 103.50 while the support resides at 102.50.

 

 

We should notice that the expansion of the MACD indicator decelerated. It has stayed in the negative location which signifies a sell signal. Meanwhile, the RSI is in a neutral location and doesn't provide any signals. The USD/JPY pair is under the Moving Averages (50,100 and 200) which goes on a descending movement. The pair tested the 50-day movement and slip downwards. The 50-day movement is the nearest resistance for the pair.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: July 11, 2016

After the issuance of the monthly report for the non-farm payroll data, the AUD/USD pair quickly had a rise in price movement. Due to its strong report the Australian Dollar attracted more investors as presented in the daily swing chart. Technically, the pair demonstrated a horizontal price movement for the past few days near 50% levels. The main range is defined from .7285 to .7645 while reaching its 50% level that is .7465. At the same time, the short-term range had a moving average from .7645 to .7301. Its 50% level falls at .7473. If the two 50% levels is combined, the .7473 and .7465 will create a strong trend that would prevail on the existing market movement. 

 

A strong move over .7571 will predict a downward change in value which is .7535 by which it would give a signal to the buyers. The angle of the moving average under .7571 will call the attention of the currency sellers. Long term investors should be cautious in dealing with this price since it is the trigger point of the potential targets .7573 and .7565. Traders are suggested to develop the sustained move above .7571 through a sharply bullish tone.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis: July 11, 2016

 

Silver prices went down Friday morning after the USD fared better than the expected NFP numbers, causing its sudden surge. However, Silver prices experienced a minor increase in its price after hitting an all-new low at $19.20, but this is still far from its weekly high of $21.11.

 

 

Should the prices of this metal go down again next week, a breakout amounting to less than $19.20 will be of significance. A move through this trend will make the next key value support at $17.99 as shown in the May 2016 high, suggesting a temporary suspension in the daily bull trend for Silver and opening its doors for more price declines.

 

 

If Silver continues to break until next week, then traders must look at the SSI to step away from its present extremes and spot the following resistance at $20.48. However a move at this point may suggest that Friday’s decline might just be a remainder of its lows. If this is the case then traders may expect Silver to trade back at its monthly high of $21.11.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis: July 12, 2016

The exchange rate of British pound to Euro (EUR/GBP) plunged a significant dip of 9 points just as euro has a little price action and the value of British pound emerges from default rate. At the moment, the pair seems to be holding the same level at 0.8514. Due to the extreme support of the European Central Bank monetary policy, it helped maintain the stability of prices and maintained the inflation rate close to medium term position. When inflation rate rises dramatically, there is a need to promote monetary easing in order to minimize financial costs and increase the amount of money flow in the market.

The investment sector is beset with difficulty, making it complicated to invest a new capital. To this extent the bank management should stabilize the global economy in order to aid bankruptcy. Every financial institution should write off undesirable credits or loans so as to recover losses and produce new income. Since the outset of the stock market storm in U.K. , the British pound ride out a way through it and made a 31-year low against dollar.

British sterling underscores a big fall of 13% versus dollar and 10% against euro. According to analysts, this will build up U.K exports because anything that is price-marked in sterling would be much cheaper for the foreign buyers. But the effect of these major lost in sterling offered mixed trade signals whether or not it would influence the external trade transactions.

[Andrea ForexMart]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 13 2016

 

AUD/USD recorded its highest stock price on May 3. But today the pair obtained a lower rate after a growth surge that happened yesterday. The recent strength of the market's trend was remarked by the appetite for risk in the global economy.

 

The Aussie Dollar has improved since the Reserve Bank of Australia reduced interest rates and they are now regenerating all their losses during the post-Brexit.

 

The daily swing chart defined the pair's main trend as an uptrend and made it cut down the Brexit top that changed the .7645 into .7285 as the market bottom.

 

The main price range is .7834 to .7145. The retracement alert level is close above .7569 to .7487, this shows a chance of an upside strengthening.

 

The market movement occurred to an uptrending angle at .7665 by which it is close to the result of yesterday’s strength at .7622.

 

Meanwhile, AUD/USD may take a bullish or long position in certain securities due to a sustained market movement over .7665 and this would probably begin an upside momentum to rotate the downtrending angle at .7687.

 

Technically, it is difficult to deal with .7665 and coping with this real time exchange rate will signal the presence of more sellers than buyers. If the price continued a downward sloping average below .7539, it indicates weakness for the next target.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis: July 13, 2016

The EUR/USD pair experienced a small upsurge after a possible stability of UK politics, lifting pressure from traders. The USD traded at 96.38 or 20 points lower, giving up some of its “safe haven” profit. On the other hand, the EUR traded today at 1.1088.

Consumer prices in Germany rose by 0.1%, while the yearly inflation rate for the past three months has increased from April’s -0.1%. Concerns within the Bundesbank may soon arise if the inflation rate continues its increase.

Fuel prices also went up as oil prices increased, causing transport costs to go up by 0.8%. On the other hand, food prices for this month went down at 0.4% while recreation prices increased after an upsurge in package holiday prices. On Monday afternoon, the EUR single currency experienced a marginal elevation against the USD after slightly up and down swings in a data-light session.

In general, the EUR was able to limit its incurred losses, thanks to the psychological barrier at the level of $1.10  for two consecutive sessions in spite of the turmoil caused by nonfarm payrolls.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD: July 15, 2016

 

The US Dollar has been struggling to make a significant increase after the UK’s Brexit vote caused uncertainties in the international market. This absence of an upside signals that whatever the market is doing is not convincing investors to actually bid up with an asset that has an optimal fundamental backdrop.

 

Only the AUD had a desirable post-Brexit run among the USD’s four counterparts, which includes EUR, GBP, and JPY. The AUD’s track record after Brexit can be proof that there are better options than the USD. The JPY experienced an upsurge at 98.77 after the Brexit announcement, but has since went down at ~106 JPY per USD. The GBP is experiencing an expected volatility but has somewhat become stable following the announcement of Theresa May’s appointment as UK’s new Prime Minister.

 

The USD’s failure to find a break might make it hard for investors to make predictions on its direction, which can cast more ambiguities in one of the world’s principal currencies.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: July 19, 2016

 

The USD/JPY pair clamped down an impressive pip average of 423 pips after the session closed down last week, the pair’s biggest weekly gain since October 2014. The pair doesn’t seem to be stopping these gains anytime soon, as this week’s opening proved to be favorable for the USD/JPY.

 

Sentiment has experienced a downgrade and is in its lowest level since January 2016. Meanwhile the SSI also went down at +1.15,  the lowest reading since January 31, 2016, entering short into the USD/JPY.

 

The USD/JPY set its record of one of the highest pip sell off at 2,000 pips last January 2016. This sudden surge of the USD/JPY and a decrease in SSI readings might be even more favorable for traders if the prices can break newly-forming resistances.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: July 25, 2016

 

The USD/CAD pair closed last week’s session with a gain of 1.21% at 1.3128 points as the commodity prices weighed in on the pair and the USD rallied on the commodity currency. After the Brexit vote, forecasts regarding the international economy has been dim, together with views that monetary policy is slowly fading away, with more and more institutions relying on borrowing policies to survive.

 

With the November elections just a few months away, the United States is now facing a period of economic uncertainty. Political and economic risks are felt worldwide not just because of the Brexit, but also of numerous terrorist attacks, particularly in France and Turkey.

 

A significant downgrade in Canada’s economic growth forecast from 1.6% to 1.4% signals a rapidly weakening global economy and business investments. The commodity-rich country experienced wildfires in Alberta, one of the country’s primary oil resources, which caused May’s energy-production shutdowns, according to the Conference Board of Canada last Thursday. The IMF later confirmed Canada’s economic downgrade, after their forecast for the Canadian economy showed a dip at 1.4% from 1.5%.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 26, 2016

 

The USD/JPY pair closed Monday’s session with a  more stable position, after investors chose to wait out Bank of Japan and Fed’s meetings.

 

The Yen remained unchanged during Monday’s session, but its bearish views are becoming more favored by the minute. The pair’s resistance came in at 107.00, while its support remained at a standstill at 106.00. MACD experienced a decrease and remained on the positive side, which indicates the weakening state of the buyers’ positions, while the RSI is still on the neutral side.

 

The USD/JPY remains above the EMAs of 50, 100, and 200 in the 4-hour chart, with its moving averages all moving upwards. A downward surge may soon start if USD/JPY falls below the 105.30 support level. If buyers maintain their control, the pair may go up to 107.00 and possibly even up to 108.00.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: July 27, 2016

 

The EUR/GBP pair went up by 47 points as the British pound reversed its gains after comments from the Bank of England made traders upset, as well as forecasts that the UK will most probably go into recession after the Brexit vote. According to the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS), which issues monthly Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) surveys of the UK economy, a “Flash UK PMI” survey will soon be published which will reportedly follow the principles of Markit’s Flash PMIs for the Eurozone.

 

Last week’s market activity already exhibited the effects of the Brexit vote on Britain’s declining economic status. An additional report from CIPS/Markit indicated that business activity in the region has been declining at a fast rate, its fastest since 2009. The Composite version of the survey which was released last Friday printed at 47.7, its lowest dip since April 2009.

[Andrea ForexMart]

NZD/USD Technical analysis: July 27 2016

 

Regardless of the news about the subsidence in the Trade Balance during the month of June, the NZ Dollar continued to increase at constant rate.

 

The currency rate of the NZD/USD sharply moved upward and dropped toward the resistance level of 0.7050. A break beyond the level of resistance or support made the bullish sign to fade considerably. The pair steep down the lower level at 0.7050 while bearish investors take control of the gaining market. As shown in the 4-hour chart of the NZD/USD currency pair, the resistance level is seen at 0.7050, the support lies at 0.6950.

 

The MACD is plotted along the centerline by which the histogram signals moves in the negative territory showing the strength of the seller but if the index swings to the positive territory, it only means that the buyers will keep control over the market. The momentum oscillator RSI is retraced to the area of the overbought condition in the market which may be observed as a sell signal.

 

As shown in the 4-hour chart, the New Zealand dollar was able to break the 50,100 and 200 day EMA . Though the bid or ask quotes did not pursue any further as well as the 100-EMA declined the currency pair, the moving average price of the NZD/USD is sloping downward with a bearish MACD which crosses over from the 50, 100, and 200 EMAs.

 

Trading analysts believes that the bearish market will continue to prevail in the market. Technically, the following stop price will be placed at 0.6980

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 28, 2016

 

The British Pound’s value decreased after Wednesday’s session in spite of the positive GDP data for the 2nd quarter of the year. But the sterling pound obtained support from the United States after the Fed’s decision to keep their rates unchanged.

 

The GBP/USD pair remained neutral all throughout the session last Wednesday, with its trading instrument maintaining a support of 1.3100. Meanwhile, the resistance amounted to 1.3300. MACD’s indicator has dropped near the centerline, which signals a negative outcome for this particular indicator. A lack of movement from the histogram and its refusal to leave negative territories will mean a significant increase in the strength of buyers. However, if the MACD returns to its positive state then the buyers will ultimately have the ball, while the RSI remains ambiguous.

 

A downward trend is also seen in the 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, which eventually led to a bearish cross forming in the hourly charts. The instrument went over the said EMAs and went past the 1 hour chart.

 

Ultimately, trends are looking bearish, with the GBP/USD pair in danger of falling below 1.3100. But this does not not eliminate the possibility of the said currency pair experiencing an increase of up to 1.3300.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 29 2016

 

The U.S Federal reserve remained their decision in keeping the rates constant but the dollar still falls below. The financial market is uncertain if the Fed will made some changes in U.S bank rates for the month of September.

 

The financial instrument stays well below from its daily high at 0.7550.The currency pair test the level 0.7500 and indicated a bearish side. The resistance level lies at 0.7600 while the support can be seen at 0.7500.

 

RSI occurred in the overbought market which implies a sell signal whereas the MACD depreciated by which resulted the position of the buyers to weaken.

 

The exponential moving average of the pair is directed to 50 and 100 day in the hourly chart. It also presented 50, 100 and 200 which are neutral moving averages.

 

In case that the price of the pair breaks beyond the resistance level of 0.7500 and bounds lower down the trendline is expected to continue. The next target of the investor is the support level at 0.7400.