Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 14 2016

 

 

After the Board of Governors of the Fed released an announcement regarding their speculations to bring around the possible increase in rate for the month of September. The US dollar and Japanese yen confirmed a buy signal on Tuesday. On the other hand, the dollar recovered from the losses it endured on Monday. The buyers also drove the price within the level of 102.50. The financial instrument restored its position on top of the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs as indicated in the 4-hour chart while remained in a neutral status.

 

Resistance is placed at 102.50, support settled at the level of 101.40. MACD arrived at the negative zone and experienced a steep decline that signaled seller's strength. RSI bounced against the oversold condition.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: September 15, 2016

 

There is an ease of movement of the New Zealand currency although the country indicated a weaker-than-expected result of its economy's health.

 

 

The price of the pair is 0.7250 and able to trade with a higher price on Wednesday. The trendline continued to move in an upward direction even before a decline already occurred. The kiwi arrived at a lower position as indicated in the 4 hour chart because it is also currently dealing with a bullish tone 200-EMA.

 

 

The price is moving between the 100 and 200 EMAs according to the timeframe analysis. While the 50 and 100 EMAs recorded a lower ratio. The resistance is established at 0.7320, support stands in the level of 0.7250. MACD experienced a downturn which means that sellers have strengthened. RSI merges on the oversold condition. The kiwi and dollar is anticipated to present a negative tone in the market.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: September 16 2016

 

Due to recent decrease in the oil prices the currency of Canada exhibited a weaker performance in comparison to the US dollar, risk aversion also eventuate though endowed on a limited level only. The pair signaled an upward trend near its upper field.

 

 

USDCAD undergone a short assessment and made a weekly high close to 1.3200 then bend over below the testing process. It can be observe that sellers are aiming for the 1.3200 level.

Moving averages are lowered down the price of the pair. As indicated in the hourly chart, the 50-EMA ascends and crosses the 100 and 200 EMAs. Resistance of the pair is at 1.3200, support entered the point of 1.3100.

 

 

The histogram established buyer's strength and stay on the positive area. RSI is place on the overbought region.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: September 19 2016

 

The issue about the next cut rate of the BoE resulted the pound to hover within the pressured area. According to BoE, the cut rate will aid the improvement of the country's economy.

 

 

The sterling and dollar recorded a negative balance on Friday. Bearish investors were able to steer the market. GPB/USD had lose its winning track and crossed the 1.3200 level and hit the level of 1.3100 during the closed out trade. The pair as presented in the 4-hour lies below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs. The overall direction moving averages 50, 100 and 200 are descending.

 

 

The resistance of the pair is 1.3100,the support is identified at 1.3000. MACD indicated a negative downtrend and remained at its current level which affirmed the seller's strength. RSI represented an oversold condition.

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 20 2016

 

Earlier on Friday the dollar demonstrated a sluggish performance because of the progressive US Statistics data which allowed another session for the Fed rate hike for this month.

 

 

The technical pattern determined a moderate bearish position. The euro and dollar are able to reach 1.1130 level of support. The EUR/USD price climbed toward the 1.1200 level which build up a selling pressure. The 4 hour chart illustrated the crossing of the 50-EMA over the 100-EMA in a downward direction, both EMAs are pared down while the 200 EMA sustained a neutral position.

 

 

The pair's resistance comes up at 1.1200, support occupied the level of 1.130.

 

 

MACD carried a negative trend which indicated strength for the sellers. RSI drawn on the area of the oversold status.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 22, 2016

 

 

The much-awaited monetary policy announcements from the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve turned out to be a big disappointment for investors and traders, particularly to dollar bulls, since both central banks have decided to maintain their present policies and make no changes. The US Federal Reserve did not make any changes in its interest rates. However, there is a possibility that a rate hike could happen within the year due to three dissenters at this point compared to only one dissenter during the last policy announcement. Fed chair Janet Yellen has also stated that the possibility of a rate hike has already strengthened.

 

 

The Bank of Japan has created measures to take control of its yield curve, such as maintaining its rates at -0.1% in an attempt to protect banks. However, the BoJ has also introduced a 10-year interest rate target. Policy makers are now anticipating one last rate hike for 2016 and possibly two more hikes for 2017. The median growth protection for 2016 was cut back from 2% to 1.8%, indicating a decrease in its long-term forecast. Inflation rates are expected to go down to 1.3% during the last quarter from the previous forecast of 1.4%.

 

 

The EUR/USD pair went up to 1.1196 points before going down slightly prior to the announcement of the central banks, with the USD losing some of its present value. The EUR/USD also maintained its neutral-bearish stance in the 4-hour chart after certain technical indicators went over the neutral side. Prices were also unable to go over the 100 and 200 SMAs. However, the currency pair is expected to strengthen this Thursday due to the upward movement of the USD, with trading points expected to go up to 1.1200.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: September 23, 2016

 

 

The cable pair GBP/USD bounced back to trade at 1.3013 after dropping to its 1-month low at 1.2946 during Wednesday’s trading session. The cable pair then went down slightly at 1.2954 before finally rallying at 1.3046 after the Federal Reserve chose to maintain its previous interest rates.

 

 

The GBP/USD’s rally from July’s new low in 31 years at 1.2798 from its previous value of 1.3481 indicates that the downward trend is a  mere temporary low. Meanwhile, the consecutive value swings suggest a possible triangle unfolding with a-leg terminus at 1.3481, a b-leg trough at 1.2865, and September’s highest increase at 1.3445 points pinpoints the c-leg terminus while the d-leg would go over 1.2865 points, inducing a final rebound at the e-leg before the downward trend reappears.

 

 

The rebound of the cable pair during the last trading session from its monthly low at 1.2946 indicates that the dropping trend will only be temporary since this particular drop was accompanied by bullish convergences on the 1-hour indicators and will likely gain further to trade at 1.3137 points next week, going over 1.3092 points.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 26, 2016

 

The EUR/USD went up higher during Friday’s trading session as the USD further weakened after the Fed’s decision to maintain its current interest rates. The Markit PMI also went out lower than expected after it took the bulk of the earlier increases in the USD. Resistance levels are currently on the downward side after coming out within the 1.1290 range. Support levels are currently near the 10-day moving average at 1.1206 points.

 

US Markit PMI data dropped by 0.6 points to go out at 51.4 points for September following a 0.9 point drop to 52.0 points in August. Index is now ranging from 50.7-52.9 for 2016, with September’s levels going at 53.1 points. New index data showed a decrease to 51.0 points from last August’s 52.7 points, its lowest level since December 2015. Manufacturing data also went out lower than expected as compared to similar technical readings of composite EU data.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/CAD: September 26, 2016

 

The USD/CAD pair went down slightly last week, plummeting at 1.30 points. The currency pair then bounced back from the support barrier, and if the pair goes above the hammer formed then this would mean a very bullish sign for the USD/CAD, and the market would be able to go over the 1.35 trading range.

 

The oil market is wielding its influence over the financial market, especially since the CAD has become a proxy currency for commodity traders. However, the oil market in general does not look very promising, and speculators are stating that it is only a matter of time before oil prices would take a turn for the worst. This might cause the USD to increase in relation to the CAD in the long-run.

 

The market is generally expected to go above the 1.35-point level. However, investors are not expected this to occur anytime soon. Pullback levels might be able to offer some measure of projected value and support, given that the market stays above the 1.30 trading range. Buyers are expected to always return to the commodities market, and an upward pressure for the currency market is now felt especially for the possible breakout which could happen at any point now that the volume has returned to the foreign exchange market.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: September 27, 2016

 

The EUR/USD pair rallied up to 1.1278 during Monday’s trading session after positive US housing date enabled investors to avoid the advancement towards a major resistance range. US new home sales went down slightly in August, dropping at a 609,000 annual rate and decreasing by 7.6% as compared to the data last July, lower than the expected 8.6% decline. The USD was also strengthened by comments from the Fed’s lacker which has stated that there is a strong possibility of an interest rate hike in December. Germany’s IFO survey has indicated that the business environment in the EU has increased significantly in September, going up to 109.5 from August’s 106.2, with increase in both the expectations and assessments sector.

 

The EUR/USD pair meanwhile continues to trade within its current range, suspending its recovery at main resistance levels, with a descent at 1.1615 points. The currency pair also experienced multiple intraday highs and lows within the 1.1280 trading range, and the upward potential will continue to be suspended as long as the price of the pair remains below 1.1280 points. Divergences can already be seen in the 4-hour chart, and the price continues to remain above a highly bullish 20 SMA which has already went above the 100 SMA. There is a high probability of a bearish trading session on Tuesday if there will be more decreases below the 1.1225 range. If the USD continues to strengthen, then there is a probable bearish trade point at 1.1160.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: September 27, 2016

 

The Japanese yen strengthened in the middle of risk aversion and is remaining to be a safe haven currency after the Bank of Japan’s statement that the central bank is preparing to implement additional regulations which are intended to increase inflation rates did not hinder the growth of the yen’s value.

 

The demand for the JPY was supported by the risk-off sentiment, with the price dropping from the present Asian high of 101.00 down to the immediate support level at 100.40 where there is a decreased downward pressure. The 50, 100, and 200 EMAs all declined while the moving averages all went lower in the 4-hour chart. Resistance levels are currently at 101.40 while support levels are at 100.40 points.

 

The technical indicators for the currency pair are all on the downward trend. However, MACD levels are sustained at the same range which is indicative of positive sellers data. On the other hand, RSI continues to remain over the expected oversold area. The USD/JPY is generally facing a bearish stance, and a closing value at 100.40 might trigger losses and may bring down the pair to the 100.00 range. The USD/JPY may also experience a slight increase if the support for the pair is sustained.

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: September 27, 2016

 

The dollar still hovers in the pressured area compared to other major pairs, seeing that the stocks remains affected regarding the Fed's resolution. Traders are taking some precautionary movements for every execution because of the impact that the U.S Presidential debate might bring.

 

The pair experienced a downward pressured on Monday because the pound and dollar throw over their acquired profits on Friday. Moreover, the pair also indicated a steep decline against the level of support lied at 1.2900.

 

The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs sustained a bearish outlook. The resistance is found in the 1.3000 level, support is present in the 1.2900 level.

 

MACD fail off but give out strength for the sellers. RSI is positioned in the negative condition.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 28, 2016

 

The EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.190 points during Tuesday’s session as the USD increased its trading value during the session but later lost some of its gains as Fed’s Fischer released a statement saying that as much as he does not want to have low interest rates, he wouldn’t want it to increase as much. However, Fischer also noted that he has no information with regards to the date of the expected interest rate hike from Fed. The last trading session exhibited active volatility levels, especially with Hillary Clinton’s impressive performance during the first US Presidential Debate. However, the dropping bank equities in London’s trading session affected the trades on Tuesday.

 

The USD also increased due to the added intraday support from highly positive macroeconomic releases, particularly with the improved Conference BC Confidence Index which is now at 104.1 from last month’s 101.8. The expansion rate of business activities also increased after a three-month dormancy, according to preliminary Markit Services and Composite PMI data. Services PMI went up to 51.9 in September as compared to August’s 51.0, while Composite PMI data also increased to 52.0 points from last month’s 51.5 points.

 

The EUR/USD is still primarily in the negative territory, albeit with a persistence neutral stance. The 4-hour chart for the currency pair has no clear indicators, with prices recovering after a slew of horizontal moving averages and technical indicators going above the middle range.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: September 28, 2016

 

The NZD/USD pair decreased in value after a three-day high, dropping back to the 0.73 trading range in relation to its USD counterpart. The currency pair dropped by -0.26% or 0.7284 points, hovering dangerously close to the 0.7279 trading lows during the last session. The NZD was unable to sustain its bullish bearing, mostly due to sustained weakness in oil prices and a strengthening of the USD.

 

The commodity currency suffered from significant decreases in oil prices caused by uncertainties in the oil output agreement between non-OPEC and OPEC oil producers. Meanwhile, the greenback was boosted by positive consumer confidence data and PMI data.

 

The NZD remains to be the worst currency performer during the trading session, especially  now that traders are waiting for the release of China’s consumer sentiment numbers. The US durable goods data will also be released later today, as well as the weekly crude stockpiles report from the EIA.

 

The next resistance point for the NZD/USD pair is projected to be at 0.7297, with a possibility of extending gains up to 0.7332. Meanwhile, the downside support is expected to be at 0.7267 points to 0.7220 points.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: September 29, 2016

 

The EUR/USD pair had an ambiguous stance during Wednesday’s trading session as investors and traders are waiting for statements coming from the European Central Bank and and the Federal Reserve. However, none of the two central banks are expected to release new modifications, which leaves the EUR/USD pair at a lower value than the previous trading sessions. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has already stated that there is no definite period as to when the Federal Reserve would be increasing its interest rates. On  the other hand, ECB Chair Mario Draghi has stated that the central bank’s negative rates are not the ones to be blamed for problems in the European banking sector.

 

The Durable Goods Orders data came out without much activity, even falling below the expected data release in August. The DGO report has also showed that capital equipment shipments had already decreased in value four months in a row, and investors are expecting that this will lead to a drop in Q3 GDP rates.

 

In general, the EUR/USD pair has been struggling to make progress during this week. The pair’s 4-hour chart indicates that its value has been unable to go above its moving averages. Momentum levels are expected to go south and below the 100 level. Meanwhile, RSI indicators are in the 47-point range and is leaning towards the negative. Selling interest are now below 1.1190 and this could make the currency pair go even lower at 1.1120 during the next trading sessions.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: September 29, 2016

 

BOE deputy Shafik’s dovish statements has caused the sterling pound to be weighed down, after Shafik stated that the central bank requires more economic stimulus, and the bank is willing to widen its asset purchase program if ever the need arises.

 

The technical trend for the currency pair is mainly bearish since a lot of sellers are holding fast to their current positions. The GBP/USD exhibited volatile and low trading points during Wednesday’s session, with the price staying within the 1.3000 range for buyers. The pair’s growth was somewhat hindered by a bearish 50 EMA, while the 50, 100, and 200 EMA are still steadily declining. Resistance levels are currently at 1.3000 while support levels are at 1.2900.

 

MACD levels are presently in the negative side, with MACD’s growth indicative of a weakening of sellers’ positions. Meanwhile, RSI levels are expected to go within the overbought range. The general outlook for the currency pair is bearish, with an expected drop towards the 1.2950 range. However, speculators are also expecting an upsurge to the 1.3100 trading range.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: September 30, 2016

 

The EUR decreased its value after Germany’s Unemployment Change report turned out to be far weaker than what traders and investors had expected. Meanwhile, the USD strengthened slightly after hints that the Fed might possibly implement an interest rate hike before the year ends.

 

The EUR/USD pair meanwhile had its support levels at 1.1200 points and had a lackluster performance during Thursday’s trading session. The currency pair’s price levels remained inactive at the 1.1200 - 1.1230 during the London trading session. The 50, 100, and 200 moving averages remained on neutral territory, with resistance levels at 1.1250 and support levels currently at 1.1200.

 

The MACD is currently at the center of the range. If the MACD returns to negative territory, then this will signal a strengthening of sellers, while a move into the positive territory is an indicator of a possible takeover of buyers in the financial market. The currency pair’s RSI levels remain at the neutral range.

 

Should sellers be able to force down pricing levels below the 1.1200 range, then the currency value of the EUR/USD is expected to go up at 1.1150. However, it is also highly possible that this would even go as far as the 1.1250 trading range.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: October 3, 2016

 

The AUD/ USD pair closed the last trading session in the higher trading range but was still unable to go beyond the 0.7700 range, with selling interest rates going stronger as compared to last week. The currency pair has now settled between the 0.7450 - 0.7700 trading range. The pair temporarily fell below 0.7600 last Friday but was able to recover almost immediately due to Fibonacci support.

 

The volume of the Asian trading session for this week is expected to be somewhat limited due to China’s golden week. The daily charts are still exhibiting an upward trend, with prices still above the 20 SMA. Momentum levels are now consolidated above the 100 level and RSI indicators are seen to go beyond 56.

 

The 4-hour chart now has a limited upward trend, especially since prices are having difficulty exceeding above the 20 SMA. On the other hand, other technical indicators are losing their momentum and is expected to go south. Monday’s session might be marked by a slight downward extension at the 0.7600 level.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: October 4, 2016

 

The USD/JPY pair surged to attain its two-week high of 102.27 points as a result of positive risk appetite after easing Deutsche Bank issues and OPEC oil statements increased the possibility of an interest rate hike in December.

 

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is still in the bottom rung of its trading range for the sixth straight session, its longest bottom-trend streak since March. The currency pair bottomed out at the 100.08 range last week after an increase in oil prices market risk-ons, as well as easing in Deutsche Bank concerns.

 

Moreover, the Japanese yen is most likely to increase its selling power in the Asian session today after foreign QE talks by the Bank of Japan is seen to be gaining momentum. The currency pair is now dependent at the wider market sentiment. The market will now be focusing on the shares of banking firm Deutsche Bank, which has previously ended Monday’s trading session with marginal losses.

 

If the USD/JPY pair manages to break above the 102.65 trading range, then this would expose the pair to the 102.78 range and go beyond an expected hurdle at 103.54 points. However, if the pair would go below its support levels of 102.00, then this could trigger a movement towards 101.57 points, which would then lead to lows at 101.00 points.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: October 4, 2016

 

The sterling pound was hit hard during the last trading session after UK Prime Minister Theresa May released a statement saying that the UK will be starting its formal process of leaving the European Union this coming March 2017. The GBP/USD pair is aligned fundamentally and  technically, and analysts are expecting a retesting of the pair at 1.2796 points. The currency pair is now in full bearish stance.

 

The GBP/USD’s inner trend line, bearish channels, 38.2, L3, and multiple rejection points at POC 1.2915-30 might cause the pair’s price to become rejected if another retracement occurs. However, if the GBP/USD would extend at the 1.2845 trading range, then there is a possibility that the pair would go beyond the 1.2796 trading range.

 

In order to maintain its short-term bearish stance, then the currency pair must be able to stay below the 1.2950 trading range.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 4, 2016

 

The EUR/USD pair hit all-new lows after succumbing to pressure during the New York trading session as the US dollar received a boost from positive US economic data. The EUR/USD pair was able to break through its range from the past session and was able to approach the 1.12 trading range but also managed to have support just a few pips beyond the psychological level.

 

September saw the ISM Manufacturing Index increase by up to 51.5 points from August’s 49.4 points. The ISM index also went into the contraction range for the first time since February and went above the expected 50.3 range. Market sentiment surrounding the Deutsche Bank issue also somewhat stabilized during Monday’s session even as the German market was closed due to a holiday. European indices also increased due to an upsurge in oil prices.

 

Technical support levels, particularly immediate support levels, are seen at 1.1183 points in the 100-day SMA, 1.1160 in the 200-day SMA, and 1.1122 points at the September and August lows. Resistance levels are at 1.1250 points for the September highs, 1.1283 points for the September 15 high, 1.1326 for the September 8 high, and 1.1365 for the August trading high.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: October 6, 2016

 

The CAD increased its trading value following the release of the US crude oil inventories data this week, which portrayed a drop of 3 million barrels. The drop in the weekly data for stocks was unexpected since forecasts showed a significant increase after consecutive drops in the data. The CAD has been previously on the lower rung during the first few hours of the trading session after the data released showed a decrease in trade deficits from August’s $1.47 billion.

 

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada is not yet expected to cut back on its interest rates in spite of the ambiguities portrayed in the recent trade data. This is because the BoC is still awaiting the fiscal stimulus data from the Canadian government and will keep the CAD from further appreciation by using dovish stances. Non-resource exports were not able to increase and the direction of oil prices are still uncertain after the OPEC’s cuts in its production will still be subjected to another review in another meeting in Vienna.

 

The USD/CAD pair decreased by up to 0.267 points during the last trading session. The currency pair is presently trading at 1.3166 points following an increase in oil prices. The CAD initially traded over the 1.32 price levels prior to the release of the crude stocks data but eventually plummeted to 1.3166.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: October 6, 2016

 

The GBP/USD pair is now trading within the 1.2370 range after the pair failed to take out in the 50-MA during the North American session and the Asian trading session. The two-year treasury yields increased by two points as a result of investors’ reaction to a heightened probability of an interest rate hike this coming December due to the positive data release of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

 

The GBP/USD is generally on the downside since market players are generally worried about a possible “hard brexit”. Should the GBP/USD break above the 50-MA level of 1.2751 points, then this could increase the possibility of a break into the 1.2789 trading range, which would then cause the currency pair to target the 1.2836 level of the 100-MA. However, if the GBP/USD continues to decrease, then this could cause the pair to break below the support levels of 1.2685, which was the pair’s lowest reach during the last trading session, and can also lead to the 1.2590 range.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 6, 2016

 

The USD/JPY pair is now trading at the 103.65 range after its value reverted back to the middle of the 103 range. The currency pair went back into the red zone in the middle of the Asian trading session but was still able to go well above the 103 trading handle. The USD/JPY closed down the recent session at 103.45 points, decreasing by -0.07%.

 

The currency pair is now collecting its rallies into per-month highs after consecutive US fundamentals all turned out to be on the positive territory, increasing the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve during the latter part of 2016. The release of the US non-farm payrolls data this coming Friday is seen as a determinant as to whether the Federal Reserve will be pushing through with its interest rate hike in December.

 

The USD/JPY’s resistance levels are now at the 103.66 range. If the currency pair would be able to break through this particular range, then the pair could go within the 103.89 range and could possibly break through 104.14. However, if the pair further decreases its value, then it could hit immediate support levels at 103.00, 102.68 and even lower at the 102.25 range.

[Andrea ForexMart]

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: October 10, 2016

 

The JPY went higher in relation to the USD after a long losing streak in nine trading sessions after the release of a somewhat negative US Non-Farm Payrolls report disappointed investors and traders. The USD/JPY pair traded at 102.906, decreasing by -1.00% or 1.042 points.

 

The US Non-Farm Payrolls report came out at 156,000, way below the expected 177,000 prediction for the NFP in September. Unemployment rates also increased by 5.0% from the previous data release of 4.9%. However, the data for the Average Hourly Earnings increased from 0.1% to 0.2%, with limited trader reactions since the data met its previous expectations.

 

Investors are now speculating that the disappointment in the US payrolls report makes it impossible for a Fed rate hike in November, but is still strong enough for an interest rate hike in December. Market buyers were also compelled to book their profits due to a slight drop in US Treasury Futures data.

 

The decrease in the USD/JPY came as a surprise to some investors since the economic data release, although on the negative side, is still strong enough to maintain speculations for an interest rate hike before 2016 ends. The pair is seen to further weaken since Monday is a bank holiday, and the absence of major market players could cause the pair to lose some of its current trading value.