Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 3, 2016

 

In opposition to the anticipation of most of us, the Manufacturing PMI in Germany reduced. The indicator displayed the data of 51.8 contrary with 51.9 in the recent month wherein it was seasonally revised. Meanwhile, experts hoped for the index to be at the recent level of 51.9.

 

The first support occurs at 1.1450 and at 1.1350 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.1550 and at 1.1650 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an ascending motion and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. This movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is growing.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: May 3, 2016

 

The Manufacturing PMI of the USA for April heightened to 51.8. Many traders had looked forward for the index to lessen by 51 in opposition to 51.5 recorded in March. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI of Japan surpass our expectations and grew by 48.2 contrary to the report of 48.0.

 

The first support occurs at 105.80 and at 105.00 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 106.60 and at 107.40 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal motion. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is correcting.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: May 4, 2016

 

Declining to its bottom-most level since February 2013, the Markit Manufacturing PMI in the UK modulated to 49.2 in April. This data was lower than the re-assessed value of 50.7 in March and below the economists' expectation of 51.2. The Manufacturing is still one of the most unpredictable sectors of the economy and still faces challenges including poor demand in the Asian markets and the slowing down of the euro area.

 

The first support occurs at 1.4480 and at 1.4400 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4560 and at 1.4670 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display a horizontal motion. The ascending movement will remain until the price is on top of the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is strengthening.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: May 5, 2016

 

Favorable market data trimmed the Aussie dollar's losses and bounced it back to 0.75 handle in the early session.

 

Australia's statistics bureau revealed on Wednesday that retail sales gained 0.4 percent in March from February's 0.1 percent, topping a projected 0.3 percent growth. However, retail sales for the first quarter only rose by 0.5 percent, just 0.2 points shy of analysts' 0.7 percent expectations. Retail sales in Q4 of 2015 was 0.6 percent.

 

But the upbeat data still failed to propel the once-glowing USD  to 76 cents. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7492, struggling to break through 0.75 level, although it reached an intraday high of 0.7515 before sinking back down.

 

Scott Morrison, Australia's treasurer, said on Thursday that RBA deputy governor Philip Lowe will take Glenn Stevens' place as governor on September 18. Lowe will fill the post for seven years.

 

The first support occurs at 0.7416 and 0.7379. The first resistance is at 0.7488 and 0.7525. The MACD indicator is in negative location. The price is increasing.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: May 6, 2016

 

The anticipation for the US’ nonfarm payrolls blocked the AUD’s slight uptrend on Thursday session, sending it down to slump at 0.73. The current spot exchange is 0.7372.  A decline in crude oil prices and the RBA’s statement of monetary policy (SOMP) released today tightened the bears’ grip on the AUD/USD.

 

After the RBA slashed interest rates to 1.75 percent on Tuesday, its SOMP revealed further cuts on inflation forecasts. From the previous estimate of 2 to 3 percent growth, the RBA lowered its projection for the 2016 to just 1 to 2 percent. The central bank is aiming for a 2 to 3 percent inflation rate by the end of the year.

 

Forecasts for the next two years’ inflation were also revised down to 1.5 to 2.5 percent from the initial 2 to 3 percent.  RBA’s statements indicated another possible rate cut.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The first support is at 0.7459 and 0.7422 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7522 and 0.7560 subsequently. The price is falling.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: May 6, 2016

 

The sterling hardly reached the 1.45 level when dismal figures on the UK’s services sector was released. GBP/USD retreated to 1.44 levels and bottomed at 1.4456. The current exchange rate is 1.4496.

 

The service industry’s purchasing managers index (PMI) slimmed to 52.3 in April from the previous month’s 53.7, recording the softest PMI in three years.  Economists expected a 53.5 growth.  Traders are closely watching for the NFP data from the US which will help decide the Fed’s next move on its interest rates.  

 

The first support is at 1.4442 and 1.4403 subsequently while the first resistance is at 1.4494 and 1.4496 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in neutral location. The price is increasing.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: May 10, 2016

 

The AUD/USD has now settled at the 0.73 handle as data from China, Australia’s largest trade partner, did little to boost the Australian dollar’s value against the greenback. The AUD bottomed at 0.7299 today and peaked at 0.7351.

 

The impact of China’s bearish consumer prices, which grew by 2.3 percent in April from the same period last year, was lukewarm. Markets were expecting a 2.4 percent rise. Its PPI fell by 3.4 percent, not as much as the forecasted 3.8 percent decline. Exports and imports, which stood at -1.8 percent and -10.9 percent y/y respectively, were also on the red.

 

Buying interest on the USD firmed slightly due to an increase in wages, which was up 0.3 percent m/m in April and 2.5 percent y/y. Only 160,000 jobs were added to the nonfarm payrolls opposed to a projected 202,000 additional positions.

 

The spot exchange is now at 0.7339 and the price is rising. However, we are yet to see the AUD breach 0.74 today.

 

The immediate support is at 0.7272 and 0.7236 subsequently while the first resistance is at 0.7364 and 0.7397 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in a negative location.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: May 12, 2016

 

The increase of risk appetite caused a positive effect on investor's sentiment. As a funding currency, the yen were pressured by the optimism showed by the leading stock exchanges. However, the US and Japanese government bonds yield differential had been decreasing for many consecutive trading days. The dollar/yen pair decreased by the end of the trades.

 

The first support occurs at 108.20 and at 107.40 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 109.00 and at 109.80 subsequently.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is consolidating.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: May 13, 2016

 

The significant event on Thursday was the inflation report of the Bank of England. As we have expected, the Central Bank statements about the economy and the inflation increase were quite negative. The rate remained unmodified by the UK regulator at the level of 0,5%.

 

The first support occurs at 1.4400 and at 1.4320 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4480 and at 1.4560 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a horizontal motion and the Kijun-sen forms a descending movement creating a "Golden Cross". The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: May 16, 2016

 

The Service Sector activity in Japan has reduced more than expected last month. Tertiary Industry Index seasonally corrected displayed -0,7% contrary with -0,1% in the recent month. The experts anticipated a decrease to -0,2%.

 

The first support occurs at 108.20 and at 107.40 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 109.00 and at 109.80 subsequently.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen displays an ascending movement.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is consolidating.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Fundamental Analysis: May 17, 2016

 

Earlier on Monday, the dollar has stabilized as the sturdy US reports, Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment, reduced the investor's concerns regarding the development in the economy. The positive data also enliven the expectations that the Fed may brought up the interest rates as soon as possible contrary with what is expected.  But later on, the dollar dropped to its low.

 

The Monday trading was frail with inferior volatility amidst the empty economic calendar. The financial markets in Germany and France refrain from working as they celebrate the Holy Spirit on Monday. We have not heard any significant report from the UK.

 

Meanwhile, the previous gains of yen in opposition with the dollar was lost. The reason of its fall was because of the unsatisfying Chinese economic forecasts.

 

The center of our attraction this week would be the Machine Tool Orders in Japan, the forecast of the Fed, Consumer Prices and the Industrial Production in the Us.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 17, 2016

 

We have not heard any significant news last Monday. Since it was the Day of the Holy Spirit, most of the European markets were closed to celebrate the event. Meanwhile, in the Bonds Market, the 10-year government bonds yield in Germany decreased which also lessen the charm of the European assets.

 

The first support occurs at 1.1260 and at 1.1150 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.1350 and at 1.1450 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal motion creating "Dead Cross". The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: May 18, 2016

 

Bonds Market. The 10-year UK government bonds yield decreased which lessen the investments of the British assets. The UK presented Consumer Price index for April wherein the data came in at 0,3% y/y against the report of 0,5% y/y.

 

The first support occurs at 1.4400 and at 1.4320 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4480 and at 1.4560 subsequently.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal movement creating a "Dead Cross".

 

The MACD indicator is in an impartial location. The price is correcting.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 19, 2016

 

As the expectations that the Fed would heighten the rates is growing, the US dollar increased contrary to the euro on Wednesday. The Consumer Price Index for April reached 0,2% against the expected -0,2% as published by the Euro zone.

 

The first support occurs at 1.1260 and at 1.1150 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.1350 and at 1.1450 subsequently.

 

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price may be found below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display a descending movement. This activity will remain until the price goes below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: May 19, 2016

 

The primary Gross Domestic Product of the Japanese for Q1 stabilized as the data came in at +0,4% against the report 0,1%. On a yearly basis, the GDP has increased by 1,7% during the first quarter. In the midst of the upgraded data in Japan and the United states, the expectation that the Bank of Japan will weaken the monetary policy even more has been diminished.

 

The first support occurs at 109.80 and at 109.00 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 110.60 and at 111.40 subsequently.

 

An inveterate and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display an ascending movement. This activity will remain until the price goes over the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is increasing.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 20, 2016

 

Bonds Market. The interest in the European assets lessened due to the decline in the 10-year German government bonds yield. Protocols were presented by the ECB. The euro could not be sustained by the issued ECB minutes.

 

The primary support occurs at 1.1150 and at 1.1040 subsequently. While the primary resistance resides at 1.1260 and at 1.1350 subsequently.

 

An inveterate and a solid sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal movement. This activity will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is correcting.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/CHF: May 20, 2016

 

Though the macroeconomic calendar was empty, the investors of Switzerland put their interest to the United States' data. The USA presented the Initial Jobless Claims report wherein the data showed 278,000 against the expected 275,000 and also the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey wherein -1.8 againts the report 3.5.

 

The primary support occurs at 0.9850 and at 0.9750 subsequently. The primary resistance stands at 0.9940 and at 1.0020 subsequently.

 

An inveterate and a solid buy signal. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen creates an ascending movement. This activity will remain until the price is on top of the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is consolidating.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: May 23, 2016

 

The Aussie has found support at the 0.72 level after moving sideways since Thursday which we view as neutral. Our perspective is unlikely to change in the immediate future as there is little data scheduled to be released this week that will impact AUD/USD.

 

After closing in New York at 0.7228, the pair is now trading at 0.7250 after hitting an intraday high of 0.7261 in earlier session.

 

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is scheduled to speak later today in Sydney. He is expected to to touch on Australia’s lagging inflation and labor market. Stevens may also hint the board members’ sentiment on an interest rate hike this month. The business capital expenditure report for the first quarter will be out this week, but low volatility is expected as markets’ focus are now on the country’s inflation.

 

On the US side, the FOMC minutes last week implied an earlier rate increase in June, ahead of the September monetary policy meeting where the benchmark rate is expected to rise.

 

The first support occurs at 0.7225 and 0.7210 subsequently. The first resistance occurs at 0.7333 and 0.7436 subsequently.

 

The MACD indicator is in negative location. The price is climbing.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: May 23, 2016

 

Fed’s hawkish sentiment evident in its FOMC meeting minutes released last week fairly strengthened the dollar against other currencies even the reasonably strong NZD. We can see that the buying interest in the NZD/USD will stay in the near term.

 

The pair is trading at 0.6797 in Wellington. Volatility is expected on Thursday as the New Zealand government announces the annual budget which include a possible revised inflation forecast. Data released last week showed that inflation was at 1.6 percent.

 

The first support is at 0.6716 and 0.6594 while the first resistance is at 0.6823 and 0.7054 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in negative location. The price is rising.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 24, 2016

 

A slew of hawkish statements from Fed officials weighed in on the EUR/USD, paired with the Germany’s disappointing manufacturing PMI.

 

Philadelphia Fed President Harker and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said that a June rate hike is “appropriate” given the US’ strong economic data. An increase will also allow Fed enough space to lower it should financial instability hit the country. The two officials said that more rate hike is possible next year if favorable US data continue.

 

Meanwhile, Germany, the Eurozone’s biggest economy, reported a lower slower manufacturing PMI growth. The latest release grew by 1.3 percent year-on-year, similar to the previous month’s 1.3 percent. Economists forecasted a 1.6 percent rise. The pair is now trading at 1.1185, topping at 1.1706 in earlier session. The first support is at 1.1067 and 1.0937 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in a negative position and the price is declining.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: May 25, 2016

 

NZD/USD is receiving downward pressure from rosy US data, shrouding a similarly upbeat trade data from the kiwi dollar.

 

New Zealand’s trade balance in April amounted to $292 million from the previous month’s $117 million, beating the forecast $60 million by leaps. This is due to exports of $4.30 billion, a 10 million increase from March’s $4.20 billion, while imports were down to $4.01 billion from $4.09 billion.

 

Home sales in the US is the highest in eight years, with 619,000 more houses sold from the previous month’s 531,000. Only 523,000 were expected in April. This is a 16.6 percent growth from a decline of -1.3 percent in March.

 

Increasing talks about a Fed rate hike in June is also boosting the buying interest around the USD, sending the bears toward the bird. As the market digests Fed officials’ hawkish statements on Monday, a bearish outlook on the NZD will remain.

 

The first support is at 0.6716 and 0.6576 while the first resistance is at 0.6823 and 0.7054. The spot exchange is currently 0.6754.

 

The MACD indicator is in negative location. The price is rising.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 25, 2016

 

The Bonds market visualized an increasing optimism as the 10-years German government bonds yield increased which also heightened the charm of the European assets. The center of the attraction was the Economic Sentiment in May (the ZEW Institute). The index aggressively decreased which weakened the euro wherein the data came in at 6.4 against the expected 12.0.

 

The first support occurs at 1.1130 and at 1.1070 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.1200 and at 1.1250 subsequently.

 

An inveterate and a solid sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. This activity will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: May 26, 2016

 

The decreasing doubts regarding the result of the referendum cause the pound to come nearly to its high for the week. The volume of Brexit opponents is 55% against 42% who want to exit the EU, according to the recent poll.

 

The first support occurs at 1.4670 and at 1.4560 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4760 and at 1.4880 subsequently.

 

An inveterate and a solid buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen ascends in movement and the Kijun-sen displays a horizontal movement creating a "Golden Cross". This activity will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is growing.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: May 27, 2016

 

The yen deprived from growing on Thursday. But as the corporate services price index grew, it heightened precociously. And as presumed, the Corporate Service Price index grew by 0,2% y/y. The USA presented the Durable Goods Orders wherein the data showed 0,4% against the expected 0,3% and Initial Jobless Claims which showed 268,000 against the report 275,000.

 

The first support occurs at 109.00 and at 108.20 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 109.80 and at 110.60 subsequently.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal movement creating a "Golden Cross".

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral location. The price is consolidating.

 

[Andrea ForexMart]

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: May 30, 2016

 

AUD/USD is taking a beating after Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said that a rate hike is “appropriate in the next coming months,” fueling speculations of a rate hike in June’s monetary policy meeting.

 

Bears are surrounding the Australian dollar as high it loses steam, trading at 0.7175 from last week’s 0.72 level. The MACD indicator is in neutral position.

 

The first support occurs at 0.7065 and 0.6827, while the first resistance occurs at 0.7243 and 0.7331 subsequently.

 

The pair is in for a volatile ride this week with a deluge of data coming from both sides. Australia’s Company Gross Operating Profits slowed down again to -4.7 percent in the first quarter after sliding by 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015. This indicates weakening profits of private firms.

 

New home sales in April declined by 4.7 percent from the previous reading’s 8.9 percent increase. The country’s current account and number of building approvals will follow today, while trade balance, retail data, and GDP will be released on Tuesday.   

 

On the greenback’s side, consumer confidence and Core CPE Price Index will start the week of significant volatility, trailing to manufacturing PMI and nonfarm payrolls in the later part of the week. Several Fed officials are also scheduled to deliver speeches.