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[Andrea ForexMart]

RBA Maintained Current Rates Amid Wage Risks

 

The Reserve bank of Australia kept their rates unchanged for nine succeeding months on Tuesday which is not surprising following the risks of household debt, meek progress in inflation and wage. The RBA decided to maintained the rates at a rock-bottom of 1.5 percent after the decline in August and May last year while most economists have foreseen that will be sustained this week.

 

The central bank is sanguine in the economy but maintains a mixed labor market. Although the wages growth anticipated being sluggish for some time. The price inflation lingers above 2 percent in the previous quarter for the first since 2015 although the objective of the RBA is to keep inflation rates below 2 to 3 percent but higher than 3 percent in the next few years.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe mentioned that there is no need for further stimulus since the low cash rates have affected household debt which will not be favorable for the “national interest”.

[Andrea ForexMart]

U.S Economy Probably Expand by 3% in Two Years, Says Mnuchin

 

According to Steven Mnuchin, U.S Treasury Secretary, the economic growth of the United States could possibly grow by 3 percent in two years upon implementing the restoration of the regulatory reform and tax system and offering better trade agreements.

 

The job market of U.S revived gaining 12 percent increase in the prices of stock considering the fact that the election of Trump coupled with the consumer sentiment reached the highest peak in 16 years have painted a positive illustration of the economy.

 

In spite of that, the economy improved on its weakest pace within three years acquiring 0.7 percent in Q1 as it highlighted the dispute that the government dealt with as it aims to attain an annual growth higher than 3 percent.

 

Moreover, the administration of Trump had established the overhauling of the tax rate system labeled as the largest revision in history, since this is on the top list of their legislative program.

 

The plan was already published previously, it further contains the proposal for trimmed taxes intended for the citizen and businesses, creating comprehensive filer system and prohibiting the rich from loopholes. The package is expected to be signed and put into law within the current year.

 

On the other hand, the International Monetary Fund have given its forecast that the world's largest national economy will bolster hitting 2.3 percent in 2017 while 2.5 percent for next year.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Stronger  Indian Rupee Provided Positive Impact to Masala Bonds

 

The Indian Rupee (INR) strengthened against the American dollar, while the masala bonds could take advantage with Indian firms who are looking to increase funds.

 

The masala bonds had a considerable growth even the latest fiscal together with the ICRA projected that the trend will persist particularly for firms without any natural hedge that could reduce risk from foreign currencies engaged in the external commercial borrowings (ECBs).

 

During the 2017 fiscal year, the rupee-linked bonds hold at t Rs 30,620 crore by which other country’s currency dropped to Rs 1,740 crore compared with the previous FY with Rs 2,440 crore.

 

According to Karthik Srinivasan, Senior VP of ICRA said:  “With their cash flows denominated in Indian Rupees, many of the borrowers of ECBs don’t have a natural hedge against foreign currency risks inherent in that instrument."

 

Moreover, the national currency of India rose by more than 5% versus its U.S peer, this caused for theIR to be the top performer among its rivals.

 

The commercial banking company further anticipates an aggregate  FII debt inflows worth $5-10 billion inclusive of RDBs amid FY18.

[Andrea ForexMart]

As Unemployment Rate Drops, US Economy on its Way to Recovery

 

The US Labor Department has released its US job report for April, wherein it indicated that business had topped up a total of 211,000 jobs last month, a far cry from March’s reading of only 79,000 jobs. This upward trend in hires has confirmed market projections that the country’s overall economic growth is well on its way towards a significant recovery. Economists are now saying that this evidently very strong economic data for the country signals that consumers might soon have the power to amplify their spending habits during the second quarter of 2017.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Oil Cut Production May Extend Beyond 2017, Says Minister of Saudi

 

Khalid Al-Falih, oil minister of Saudi Arabia showed confidence with regards to the deal to limit output for crude oil and the oversupply reduction is going to be extended within 6 months or more.

 

Al-Falih further discussed during the Asia Oil and Gas Conference held in Kuala Lumpur last Monday that the growth of U.S shale production together with the closure of refinery maintenance have lessened the effect of cutback led by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries along its associates. Moreover, manufacturers are driven enough to achieve their target to drop in their bloated gasoline supplies. Nevertheless, he believes the world oil supply could still realign and revive its former healthy state.

 

The increasing U.S production place worries towards OPEC and its allies as it fails to minimize the market glut and expansion of prices.

 

The gains of oil were erased since the agreement made in the previous year to curb output. The OPEC meeting held in Vienna attended by various nations further supported the 6-month deal for the extension which will start in January. It would be the first time that the minister of Saudi to propose the extension beyond 2017.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Euro Fell Against the Dollar in the Post-French Election

 

The common European currency tumbled on Monday from its highs due to the triumph of centrist wing Emmanuel Macron. As investor received an estimate of 3% of profit after Macron won a couple of weeks ago.

 

The loss of the populist candidate, Marine Le Pen ended the worries of investors about the radical change subsequent to Brexit and Trump’s election last year in case that Le Pen won.

Based on opinion polls, Macron had a consistent point which is roughly 20 percent and his triumph on Sunday was a great surprise.

 

During the early trades of Asia, the euro surge reaching $1.1024 which is its highest rate since November 9. It further increased on its one-year high touching 124.58 yen versus its Japanese peer while hitting a five-month high jumping to 1.0886 against the Swiss franc.

However, amid morning session of Europe, it declined by 0.4 percent to $1.0953 vs the greens and 0.6 percent to 123.26 against the yen.

 

The political risk linked with Le Pen were already removed, the risk involves the pledge that France will be taken out from the European region. As the risk was eliminated, the focus turned to the economic fundamentals along with the monetary policy normalization of EU and U.S.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Demonetisation Slowed Down Indian Economy

 

The International Monetary Fund issued a regional forecast for India this month and predicted that the South Asian country will slow down because of the cash crunch bring about by the demonetization despite the fact that its economic growth would likely remain strong within the Asia Pacific region compared with the previous outlook in October.

 

According to the report of National Accounts Statistics, the economic impact of the cash insufficiency may be downplayed in the least short term.

 

In addition to it, an analysis made by the staff of IMF states that the projections in October 2016, the negative cash flow seems slow amid the financial year 2016-17 nearly four to five percentage points. While the growth in FY 2017-18 was almost half of its percent point.

[Andrea ForexMart]

High Demand for Bitcoin Hit a Record High $1,760

 

The Bitcoin attained a record high on Tuesday because of an upsurge demand for crypto-assets and the production of new tokens to increase stake for new establishment through blockchain technology which implies the dispensability of a central regulator.

 

The digital currency rose on the day by 6 percent reaching $1,760.40 from $1,747.89 on the BTC=BTSP BitStamp platform. Currently, it surged to almost 80% percent for the year and a significant expansion of market capitalization up to $52.5 billion, reported by coinmarketcap.com.

 

However, Federal Reserve of Minneapolis Bank President Neel Kashkari is not convinced of a positive bitcoin probable future, saying that the blockchain technology will progress more in the future compared to the digital currency. Also, considering the shift in the market interest where majority of the bitcoin rallied was influenced because of high demand for the initial coin offerings (ICOs).

[Andrea ForexMart]

India’s Consumer Price Inflation Abates this April

 

Inflation rate of India narrowed down because of lower food cost for the month of April. However, this would make it tough to ease rates in the near future. Consumer price inflation is anticipated to persist lower than the 4.0 percent medium target of the Reserve bank of India for the past six months.

 

It is forecasted from a survey of economist that inflation in April will decline to a three-month low of 3.40 percent this month compared to the 3.81 in March. Yet, the central bank raised its inflation rate for the fiscal 2017 to 2018 to attain 4.5 percent for the first half and 5.0 the second half of the year. An economist described the situation that even if the interest rate cut exceeded the 4 percent level in the next few months, the RBI will be cautious and would not cut rates since the current situation is stable already.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Ireland’s Household Debt  Has Fallen but Remains Fourth in the Most Indebted Nation in EU

 

The household debt of Ireland had collapsed for more than 20 times which appeared to be much apace than Europe in 2016, underlining the amount of Ireland’s recovery from the debt-induced financial crisis.

 

Based on the statistics showed by the Irish Central Bank, Sweden ousts the Irish island on the ranking of the most indebted nation in EU as the Swedish region have low-interest rates which gave rise to concerns about the overheating in the housing market of the country.

 

The household credit serves as the disposable income percentage further weakened by 10.2 percent point in the previous year, reaching 140.9 percent versus the 0.5 pp overall downturn in the European Union.

 

The bank also mentioned that the contraction has weighed on the reduction in debt and improvement in the household incomes. The indebtedness has declined by 52.9 percentage point as the year 2012 ends versus with the decreased in the broader EU  by 3.3 percent.

 

Moreover, the Irish government was compelled to agree with the Europe and IMF program for economic stabilization in 2010 as the property bubble suddenly broke causing the string of banks to fall down. Despite the strong rebound, the economy remains to become one of the rapid-growing states in EU.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Thailand’s Strong First Quarter GDP growth

 

The export data of Thailand for first quarter moved at its most rapid  “quarterly pace” in the past four years and eases the monetary policy to support low key investment activities. Although it faces uncertainties with capital outflow and global trading protectionism, the U.S. Fed is taking signifying that it is gaining momentum to recovery.

 

The agency reduced its monetary projection from 3.0 - 4.0 percentage to 3.3 - 3.8 percentage economic advancement forecasts while its export progress has been elevated to 3.6 percent from 2.9 percent. The rise in exports is mainly due to steep costs of commodities more than the volume of trades.

 

The central bank retained its key percentage interest rate at 1.50 percent since April 2015 and the upcoming policy review is scheduled on May 24 and expected also kept unchanged. Yet, there is a possibility for the Thai central bank to increase its rates by 25 basis points later in the year because of both sturdy growth statistics and probable augmented U.S. rates.

[Andrea ForexMart]

April Retail Sales Data for US Increases by 0.4%

 

A highly positive retail sales data for the US economy has further reaffirmed speculations that the country’s economic status is regaining its momentum following a previously weak slew of data last winter. However, these positive economic reports were pockmarked by a drop in earnings reports. But economists are saying that the country’s economy could possibly be in for stronger consumer data in the second quarter of 2017, which is apparently not surprising since the US labor market is continuously showing signs of steady improvement.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Economic Data of China Indicates Slow Growth

 

The economy of China further provided below-expected results of its economic indicators as the fixed-asset investment (FAI), manufacturing output and retail sales in the month of April declined.

 

The output of the industrial sector gained 6.5% in the earlier year, compared with the 7% projection of polling analysts of Bloomberg while 7.1% predicted by Reuters.

 

While factor output rose by 7.6% during March which is the fastest in two years. Fixed investments expanded by 8.9% in the months of January to April 2017, figures are based on the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, as polls projected 9.1%

 

The sales of retail boosted by 10.7% in April from the first quarter of the year. According to forecasts of experts, the rise will reach 10.6% which is lower versus the past period of 10.9% development. Whereas, the growth in private investment that accounts for an approximately 60% of the national sum value, dropped to 6.9% and acquired 7.7% in Q1.This indicates that the small and medium-sized private companies will remain to experience difficulty in finances.

 

The target growth of China is close to 9% allocated for the FAI’s 2017 while there are expectations that the retail sales will surge to 10% generally.

 

The second largest economy in the world had obtained a 6.9% expansion in the first quarter which is the most powerful since 2015. China had lessened its economic objective to give way to the policymakers in boosting reforms and to control financial risks.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Australia’s Record Low Wage Growth at 1.5%

 

The household debt climbed to an all-time high that affects spending and inflation that moved Australian wages sluggishly. This raised concern to the Reserve Bank of Australia and lower than the target of 2 to 3 percent leading to two rate cuts last year to a record low of 1.5 percent.

 

The wage price index climbed to 0.5 percent in the first quarter compared to the quarter before while the annual wage growth maintained at 1.9 percent which is significantly half less a decade ago. Although the central bank is pointing out that the wage growth decreases indicating less pressure to labor costs.

 

It is anticipated that inflation will recover early next year while wages rises slowly with the progressing jobs market. Data shows that the public sector to be gaining more appeal to investors with 2.4 percent increase compared to the 1.8 percent in the private sector. recovery of mining investments following a stagnant growth.

[Andrea ForexMart]

New Fintech Rules will be Imposed by Brazilian Central Bank

 

Brazil’s central bank is interested in implementing regulations to the FinTech sector to provide support for the industry startups and other firms in engaging and improving the Brazilian nation that is currently suffering from a recession.

 

As published in the recent report of Reuters, the monetary authority of the country, Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) is planning to put into effect such rules for this year to sustain growth to  FinTech companies and further services available in the Federative Republic of Brazil  

 

According to Otavio Damaso, the BCB’s Chief of Staff, the advancement of FinTechs and innovative products seems positive for improving the financial system of the country since the economy is experiencing a worst depression.

 

The economy of Brazil got an 8 percent rate in March 2017 which is lower during December 2014. In the past, the country is known to be one of the fastest growing economies around the globe, then political controversies and mismanagement of funds arise creating jobless 13 million individuals.

 

During the former years, the traditional financing options caused banks to charge borrowers higher interest rates, this open doors for many fintechs to influence the Latin America’s biggest economy to offer loans at a cheaper price.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Congress Rift Might Dampen Trump’s NAFTA Dream

 

The Trump administration has already started the first part of its renegotiations with regards to the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada. But this first step towards NAFTA adjustments has created a rift between some Republican and Democrat senators, with the backers of the said agreement clashing with dissenters. These negotiations are expected to corner Trump especially now that his political policies are being put at stake by a political crisis within the US economy.

[Andrea ForexMart]

U.S Labour Market Declined Despite Positive Economic Outlook

 

Applications for U.S unemployment benefits had fallen circumstantially during the previous week, while the total of jobless Americans declined to a 28-1/2-year low which could lead to a sudden failure on the labor market slack.

 

The economic development was supported by the data released on Thursday that showed an abrupt expansion towards the manufacturing activity within the Mid-Atlantic states this month. The report says that the shipments for goods accelerated and more working hours for laborers. Further measure for the economic activities increase again in the month of April.

 

The positive data favors the expected hike in interest rates for the following month, even if the decision of the Fed Reserve depends on the condition of the financial markets, which recently been shaken by the scandals of US President Donald Trump.

 

Jobless claims benefits were lessened by 4,000 with a seasonal adjustment of 232,000 within the week that finished on May 13 as it experienced a three-weeks consecutive decline, as mentioned by the Labor Department.

 

Economists penciled last week that claims will reach 240,000 but it currently obtained less than 300,000 by which the threshold is linked with a stabilized job market for 115  successive weeks. This is the longest period recorded since the year 1970 which historically appeared that the market was smaller.

 

The employment sector reached full employment with the jobless rate gained a 10-year low to 4.4 percent. The U.S economy was able to produced 211,000 number of jobs in April.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Extended OPEC Output Cuts Raise Oil Prices

 

The extension of production output cut from big oil producing countries caused the oil prices to rise. Oil future climbed to the highest in almost a month and key benchmarks reaching gains for two weeks. Brent crude LCOc1 increased by 0.5 percent adding 28 cents at  $52.79  while the U.S. crude oil CLc1 rose by 0.6 percent equivalent to 29 cents at $49.64 a barrel which is the highest since 26th of April. Investors are optimistic that production will reach an estimated 1.8 million barrels per day by the end of March 2018.

 

OPEC leaders and other oil producing countries will have a policy meeting on May 25 in Vienna. Although, there are signals indicating sufficient supplies from the Saudi Arabia being the biggest oil producer. Investors have mixed sentiment with conflicting concern from the drop in U.S. oil stocks and OPEC oil cuts.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Japan Exports Rallied for 5 Months

 

Exports from Japan notably increased for five consecutive months indicating a strong offshore demand and increased shipments of semiconductors and steels that boost economic growth. In April, exports climbed up to 7.5 percent compared with the previous year and lower than the median estimate of 7.8 percent yearly growth.

 

On the other hand, its trade surplus with the U.S. also decreased by 4.2 percent from a year ago while the exports jumped by 2.6 percent and continuously grows in the past three months because of high volume of car and auto parts shipments. An economist predicts that this upsurge will continue including domestic imports but the protectionist trade policies of Donald Trump raises concerns with Japan being an export-reliant country.

[Andrea ForexMart]

The current Money Fall contest has already started on May 22, 2017 and will end on May 26, 2017.

 

You can register for the next competition which will take place from May 29, 2017 to June 2, 2017

 

Note:

Registration for the next competition finishes 1 hour before the contest starts.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Food Stamp Program in Peril from Trump’s Tax Cuts

 

The Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program or SNAP is currently in peril as Trump’s budget plan could possibly slash over $190 billion from the said food stamp program. These cuts on SNAP will be representing a funding cut of over 29%, since the US government spent over $70 billion on the food stamp program last year. Prior to this particular cut, the Trump administration had recently proclaimed that it will be able to strike a budget balance within a decade without altering the US government’s biggest spending drivers, namely social security and medical assistance. Trump had previously stated that there will be no changes made to these factors during his campaign period.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Debt Relief for Greece Still in Progress, No Deal Yet

 

Intercontinental lenders in Greece has a comprehensive meeting discussing debt sustainability on Monday. The meeting ended failing to reach an agreement about additional debt relief for Greece. Ministers disagreed to grant new loans to Athens but the head of Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem says otherwise. He said that they are deliberating and making progress on the next disbursement targeting before summer to be able to pay due debts in July.

 

In their next meeting, they are optimistic that they will settle a deal in doling out bailout funds to the country on June 15.  They are aiming for a more sustainable agreement which the International Monetary Fund commended and hoping that E.U. governments will support this deal. Although, the deal is not yet ready and will most likely be implemented once the current bailout program has ended next year.

[Andrea ForexMart]

FOMC Minutes Signal Interest Rate Hike Next Month

 

Fed officials are now more than ready to raise its short-term interest rates after stating in their meeting last month that increasing its rates are now “more than appropriate”. The central bank also moved to begin cutting back on its Treasury and mortgage securities holdings, which is currently worth $4.5 trillion. The Fed also stated in its minutes that they will be allowing an accumulation of these said securities in  the long run without having to reinvest its proceeds to other assets. The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled this coming June 13-14 and will be immediately followed by a press conference from Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

[Andrea ForexMart]

China’s Debt-rating Downgraded by Moody’s to A1 from Aa3

 

The credit rating of China was downgraded by Moody’s Investors Service on Wednesday, the previous Aa3 (Double A-3) were down to A1 which means that the Chinese economy is going to grind lower for the next years as the country showed slow growth and its debt continuously increase. The downgrade is done due to the financial pressure that the government faces after years of credit-driven stimulus.

 

Craig Erlam, a Senior Market Analyst of Oanda, said in an interview,  “Because talk of Chinese debt and concerns about the size of Chinese debt has been going on for the last few years. They seem to be very reliant on these high levels of growth, which has been slowing.” He further added that the credit downgrade does not surprise him at all.

 

The second largest economy in the world gained 6.7 percent last year and 6.9 in 2015, this pace is the slowest based on the records since 1990 by which Erlam believes that the following years appears to be challenging.

 

The bond credit rating company has expectations that the direct debt burden of China’s government will climb higher reaching 40 percent of 2018’s Gross Domestic Product which is close to the 45 percent as the decade ends. However, it remains lower to the 60 percent for the European Union.

 

The Finance Ministry of the republic claims that the downgrade is based on an improper approach that overestimated the risks on the increasing debt.

[Andrea ForexMart]

Trump Proposed 45 Percent Cut in Mexico Aid from U.S. Spending

 

On Tuesday, the U.S. spending reserved for foreign aid for Mexico and Central America are to be reduced as proposed by the President Donald Trump. The budget was proposed to trim as much as $3.6 trillion government spending in the following ten years for 2018 budget proposal.Although, this may not get a legislative approval as to how it is currently with other departments cuts especially in the State department.

 

Mexican aid worth $87.66 million will be lessened over 45 percent from the 2016 expenditure when Trump's proposal is approved. The budget cut will be transferred to the Mexican military including counterterrorism funds and other government programs. One of the officials commented that these deals are focused on bolstering border security and fight against corruption that may have hindered transnational criminal organizations. There will be a meeting to discuss the employment and security concerns in Central America in June.