Australian Dollar Fundamental Analysis.

[myregister]

In the midst of efforts to rally, only the Australian Dollar which is still strong and bullish against the US dollar. AUDUSD gained power against US dollar powerful sentiment from many of the economic data, crude oil prices and the prospects of the mining business in 2017 by the Australian government.

At the beginning of the session, Australian Statistical Office (ABS) reported the building aprovals period from December natural leap of data from the previous period of contraction alias negative, the data showed in a good position. The next pair strength of crude oil price movements which received support from the update production cut some OPEC member countries.

Australian dollar exchange rate movements on Asia session move strongly against US Dollar, after the price opened lower at around 0.7295 earlier, Australian dollar exchange rate is now rolling at 0.7314. So for the next session, many analyts estimate AUDUSD pair will go towards 0.7336-0.7360.

[myregister]

Step into European session on Thursday (12/1), the australian dollar rally was continued in the fourth consecutive day by momentum bearish US dollar against many of its main rivals. And early session, AUDUSD sentiment that is driving crude oil prices experienced profit taking, but still further aussie rally.

Rally of Australian dollar also gained support from rising commodity prices such as iron ore and featured natural copper price increases in international commodity markets. So that the AUDUSD pair successfully sped to the highest position in the 20 trading days and has reached the position of strong resistance daily.

For subsequent trade to the American trading session this evening, many analysts estimated that AUDUSD has bigger chance it may continue to rise towards the resistance range between 0.7500-0.7535. And if failed will fall to the range between 0.7426 and 0.7365.

[myregister]

The development of the movement of Australian dollar against the US dollar after dropping three consecutive days this week is still down since Asia session opening on weekend (27/1), although there is a positive sentiment that usually lift the exchange rate of the commodity. 

Weak aussie previous motion triggered by a poor release inflation data for the last quarter of 2016 were alarming RBA to position Australian interest rates that have been handed down in 2016 by the decline in the inflation data. But this morning released of PPI data and increases the same period, this triggers an increase in the inflation data for the first quarter of 2017.

Australian PPI data and rising crude oil prices in international commodity markets may dampen the negative sentiment on commodity prices featured the country such as copper and iron ore. So for subsequent trade to the American trading session this evening, analysts estimate AUDUSD may rebound by movements in crude oil prices and poor sentiment driving the US dollar of GDP data Q4-2016.

[myregister]

After trading the Asian session on Thursday (2/2), Australian dollar opened flat straight high jump to reach the highest highs throughout 2017 even the highest in the 12 weeks since November 2016. The strong power of AUDUSD rally this morning received from positive sentiment after the second data release economy are encouraging.

 

Australia's national statistics office (ABS) announced the data of building approvals rose from a position of contraction the previous month period, after which the foreign trade balance report in December 2016 that increased its trade surplus. Besides both steady economic data, the position of crude oil prices in international commodity markets are back up from the previous trading provide additional power.

 

For subsequent trade to the American trading session this evening, many analysts predicted that AUDUSD for the next session probably have higher chance to rise since the position of rising global commodity prices and poor US dollar sentiment.

[myregister]

Australian Dollar exchange rate movements consolidated against US Dollar, after the price of this pair opened lower at 0.7625 in early trading (0000 GMT). And now the exchange rate is still rolling at 0.7629.

 

AUDUSD strength on European session comes from the sentiment of Chinese trade balance data which release is steady and also it is because of the rally in crude oil prices. US dollar bullish pressure drop strength unsuccessful pair.

 

Technically AUDUSD attempted to climb toward the resistance range between 0.7665- 0.7687. For the movement today many analysts argued that the normal range for AUDUSD pair is estimated to have the support level at 0.7553 and the resistance level at 0.7701.

[myregister]

Australian dollar exchange rate experienced profit taking after enter Asia trading seesion earlier after on weekend showing a rivalry against US Dollar. Late last week the Australian dollar was speeding up to achieve the highest position in seven trading days received positive sentiment from the rally in crude oil prices.

 

Weekly price of AUDUSD ahead of Asia session earlier in the week in addition to the momentum triggered by the US dollar rally and also a decrease in crude oil prices, which has positive sentiment from surging copper prices to rise to its highest level in 20 months.

 

For the next trade until the close of trading ending the American session tomorrow morning, analysts viewed as technically AUDUSD pair may rise to the resistance range between 0.7690-0.7708 but if the current has negative correction then would fall towards support range between 0.7645 -0.7613.

[myregister]

Aussie exchange rate movements on EU session seems to be consolidated against US Dollar, after opening higher at 0.7638 in early trading (0000 GMT). And now the exchange rate is still rolling at 0.7678.

AUDUSD pair drove past on European session has been strong resistance range of a positive sentiment on world commodity price movements which are showing a strong position. Previously, this pair got the power of China's inflation data releases and NAB's survey.

Technically AUDUSD attempted rise towards the resistance range between 0.7695 - 0.7716. For the movement today analysts argued that the normal range of AUDUSD pair is estimated to have the support level at 0.7584 and the resistance level at 0.7716.

[myregister]

Among the main rivals , US Dollar strengthened itself on the second day this week especially towards AUDUSD. It seems that Australian Dollar able to held steady against US Dollar bullish pressure due to many factors which makes US able to hold its position even with small weakening movement.

Some sentiment that gives great strength to the Australian dollar is China's inflation data release is increased, rising commodity prices such as crude oil, gold, copper and iron ore. Crude oil prices remained strong sentiment member of OPEC production cuts.

After being closed bullish at around 0.7661, Australian dollar exchange rate movements again showed a strong movement after opened flat at 0.7661 and for the next trade until the close of trading tomorrow morning, analysts estimated AUDUSD may be corrected if crude prices cut by rising US shale oil production.

[myregister]

Australian Dollars exchange rate seems to consolidate against US Dollar, the price earlier opening flat with slight indicati. Price opened at 0.7694 in early trading. And now the exchange rate of Aussie against USD is still rolling at 0.7708.

Technically AUDUSD attempted to climb back towards 0.7720 up to 0.7732. For the movement today many analysts suggested that the normal range of AUDUSD is estimated to have support level at 0.7635 and the resistance level at 0.7771.

[myregister]

Aussie trade against many rivals experienced intense pressure after the Office for National Statistics reported capex Australia state enterprises are still far below expectations indicates contraction. Similarly to the US dollar in the AUDUSD which retreat after a strong rebound earlier trading.

AUDUSD dropped enough in the morning because of the extra pressure drop in copper prices in international commodity markets with regard to positive sentiment from a rebound in crude oil prices.

Frustration market to report capex last quarter was due to give a burden to the Australian central bank to determine monetary policy next. This is a bad data is the obstacle RBA after the release of disappointing inflation.

For the next trade, seems to be the strength of crude oil prices and commodity prices will correct an excellent pair AUDUSD trade routes. especially in the American session the US dollar is expected tonight will be pressured again by sentiment data release.

[myregister]

Australian dollar has a strong rebound after the previous trading day dropped two straight trimmed back by crude oil prices which is fell. The strength of the rebound earlier in the session received support from the Australian data releases current account deficit decreased.

 

It is also the power of AUDUSD pair received a positive sentiment from Australia Q4-2016 release of GDP data will be released tomorrow (1/3). The current account data add strength to the positive sentiment.

 

For the next trading, the negative sentiment seems to force a decline of AUDUSD. Moreover, during the American session the US dollar tonight is expected to be lifted by the strength of the Prelim GDP data release as well as policy speech of US President before the US Congress.

[myregister]

Australia Dollar against US dollar continued to worsen over the Asia session trading on Friday (3/3) after a previous drop is severe enough to down 1.6% by a lot of sentiment. Negative sentiment has continued and increased after the release of data Caixin Chinese non-manufacturing PMI declined from the previous hike expectations.

 

Previous negative sentiment apart from the momentum of a strong dollar rally too poor January trade balance data and the drop in crude oil prices were significant enough to make them join the leading commodity prices plummeted. Negative sentiment of the release of Chinese economic data is very strong that the rebound in crude oil prices was not able to reverse the losses suffered AUDUSD pair. 

 

Besides the pressure of such sentiments make aussie plunged to its lowest in more than one month against the US dollar. For further trade, if crude prices rallied strongly, the negative sentiment from the data of China can not continue in the European session and also America tonight.

[myregister]

The movement of AUDUSD on European session this Thursday (21/6) has been negative since the European session which opened by the position of crude oil price that corrected again after a hefty Asian session that picked up the pair. Aussie remains depressed by the sentiment above despite the fact that the US dollar is also under pressure.

 

The falling position of global crude oil prices jeopardizes the inflation rate of the United States, giving the Fed the burden of resuming the next rate hike in 2017. The movement of Australian Dollar was weak against US dollar, after opened stronger at 0.7552 on early Asian trading session. Aussie exchange rate now rolled up at 0.7546.

 

For further technical movement pair, AUDUSD still get weak signal for rebound even though US dollar potentially move weak until American session. The falling position of crude oil prices provided a strong load until the end of the session.

[myregister]

The movement of Australian Dollar exchange rate (11:00:15 WIB) remained strong against the US dollar on Asia session, having opened lower at 0.7680 position in early trading session and now the Aussie exchange rate is at 0.7694 after having climbed to high peak at around 0.7711 through strong resistance.

 

Fundamentally there is any kind of news that could do something and AUDUSD correction towards the upper 0.7677 and if it breaks it will continue towards 0.7634. Many analysts suggested AUDUSD normal range is expected to have support levels at 0.7594 and resistance levels at 0.7751.

[myregister]

Australia's business conditions are still not translated and peaked in July. Data released by National Australia Bank (NAB) on Tuesday this morning showed the results of the Australian Business Trust survey for July was at +12 based on prediction at +9. In addition, the NAB Business Condition Survey is at +15 position from the previous +14.

 

Following the report from the NAV, AUD / USD shows an increase around 0.25 percent to around 0.7933. The pair has decreased with the numbers at the number 0.7916 and the reason is a recent Trade Balance report launched by China, Australia's number one trading partner. China's exports for July were up 7.2 percent, below expectations of a 10.9 percent increase. While imports, soared to 11.0 percent, still below the predicted increase of 16.6 percent in units of dollars.

[myregister]

The Australian dollar was pushed up after the release of the Central Bank of Australia (RBA) note on Tuesday this morning. In fact, in the outcome of the meeting held on August 1, RBA is still highlighting the issue of appreciation of Australian Dollar, although while providing a fairly convincing prospect of the Australian domestic economy. AUD/USD is trading at 0.78695, leaving last night's low at 0.7849.

 

The RBA maintained its interest rate at the 1.5 percent level. However, they expressed concern about the negative impact of the strengthening of the Australian Dollar on the economy of the Kangaroo country.

 

The issue of strengthening the value of the currency is not a new theme for major central banks, including the RBA. Moreover, it is clear that AUD / USD continues to creep up. However, the central bank continues to highlight this after the Australian Dollar topped a two-year high against the US Dollar and it is hard to get further down.

 

With a fairly balanced economic condition, the RBA is expected to continue to discuss currency issues now. The RBA also highlights the global economy, particularly China and the Euro Zone. Solid global economic data is likely to be a factor driving the strengthening of the Australian Dollar.

[myregister]

The Australian dollar posted a slight rebound after it reported Australia's Real Wage Growth data on Wednesday this morning. In fact, Salary Growth for the second quarter is almost close to the lowest level in a year. This condition is considered to threaten the consumer spending sector, which could lead to an increasing burden of Australian inflation.

 

The ABS statistics agency showed that Australia's Wage Price Index rose only 0.5 percent in April-June. The condition is in line with expectations. While in the previous quarter, Australia's Wage Price Index was revised up 0.6 percent.

 

Annual Wage Growth stood at 1.9 percent level, also recorded as the lowest record. That figure is half lower than the growth in salaries enjoyed by Australian workers a decade ago. At that time, Australia's mining sector is at its peak before finally experiencing a boom.

 

Following the report, AUD / USD is trading at 0.7834, rise about 0.15 percent from the previous level. According to Sally Auld and Ben Jarmon from JP Morgan, up to the second half of the year, the Australian Dollar is trading at a range of US75 ¢ -US78 ¢. However, in mid-2018, AUD / USD will trade down towards 0.7600.

[myregister]

The Australian dollar jumped against US dollar in Wednesday's trading session today, after Australia's Building Approval and Construction data reported much better than forecast.

 

The data did not show any improvement. Building Approval Australia for new home construction, decreased 1.7 percent in July. However, a relief is, because the figure is much better than the estimated 5 percent decline calculated earlier by analysts.

 

Better economic data than such expectations, lifted the Australian Dollar exchange rate, with AUD / USD up to 0.7993, way above from 0.7968. Still, investors are keeping a close watch on the Australian Dollar move as it believes that this will be the RBA's consideration in setting up its monetary policy next week.

[myregister]

Australia's benchmark interest rate is maintained by the RBA today at 1.5 percent level. This policy has been going on since the last 13 months amid growing signs of a slowdown in the housing market. RBA is known to have never raised interest rates since November 2010.

 

In addition, the Australian economy was strongly forecasted last quarter to grow rapidly as exports and public spending showed improvement. This is likely to be the reason the Australian central bank keeps its current low-interest rate. The latest data is still consistent with central bank expectations, namely Australia's economic growth will increase gradually until next year.

 

In response to the RBA monetary policy, AUD/USD shows a rise up towards 0.20%. This morning Australia also reported data on its current account surplus that increased to 9.6 billion AUD in the second quarter, higher than the previous quarter of 4.9 billion AUD. According to analysts, the strengthening of Australian Dollar is more due to the weakening US dollar than the economic conditions within Australia.

[myregister]

The Australian dollar plunged in Asia session today after Australian Trade and Retail Sales Balance Data was announced. AUD / USD is trading at 0.7989, down from the 0.8009 range achieved before the report is published. According to Australia's ABS Bureau of Statistics, Retail Sales were flat without an increase during July (seasonally adjusted). The data missed expectations of an increase in retail sales by 0.2 percent.

 

It was the weakest growth since March when Hurricane Debbie struck Australia and caused massive damage to southeastern Queensland and parts of northern New South Wales. While the food sector is not included, as it is considered volatile, Australian Retail Sales slipped 0.5 percent. The weakening of Australian retail sales was driven by slumping sales at the Department Store. Clothing sales fell as much as 1.7 percent.

 

Meanwhile, Australia's Trade Balance recorded a sharp narrowing of the surplus for July, to AUD460 billion, compared with a previous AUD875 million surplus. The narrowing of Australia's trade surplus is expected to be the result of the strong Australian Dollar exchange rate, dampening exports of iron ore and other commodities that Australia's main export.

[myregister]

Australia's latest monthly Conditions Business Survey shows that business conditions in the country are still at a high level. This is good news, as data for last August, Business Confidence showed a sharp decline. Australia's overall business condition rose to +15 in August from +14 in July. The data is quite high above the long-term average and is the highest level since early 2008.

 

The data also shows a trend that, according to NAB, is quite interesting to observe. Trade and profitability were slightly down again from July's high, but general conditions in those categories were still quite uplifted.

 

Nonetheless, NAB highlighted the retail price index that fell into negative territory, after a steady decline in recent months. In addition, NAB is also concerned about the toughness of the Australian employment sector. Employment creation of 270,000 in the coming months is likely to hold the unemployment rate below the current 5.6% level. This is what keeps RBA satisfied with the 1.5 percent interest rate, and will keep it for some time to come.

[myregister]

The Australian dollar declined steadily in the trading session Tuesday this morning, following the release of minutes of the Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting. AUD/USD is trading at 0.7839 or falling down around 0.17 percent from its previous position.

 

The minutes of the RBA meeting that took place in early October again reiterated that policy changes are more dependent on Australia's domestic economic conditions, unaffected by other central bank policies.

 

The RBA is known to keep interest rates at the range of 1.5 % this October. According to Paul Dales, Capital Economics Chief Economist, in the minutes it is clear that the RBA wants to emphasize that interest rate hikes in other developed countries have no effect on RBA monetary policy.

 

In addition, according to the RBA, the Australian Dollar exchange rate movement is currently largely dictated by US Dollar conditions. The Aussie currency is somewhat depressed in light of the prospect of a Fed rate hike that runs counter to the RBA policy.

[myregister]

Got up after the Employment Change report, the Australian Dollar seemed to move down erasing gains at high levels following China's GDP data. China is the country's number one trading partner for Australia, so its economic data report has an effect on the Australian Dollar exchange rate.

 

AUD / USD surged to 0.7871 from 0.7848, after the Australian Employment Change report reported higher. The Bureau of Statistics ABS noted, Australia's Unemployment Rate dropped to a four-year low, at 5.5 percent in September, in line with market expectations.

 

That level, which is also better than the level in February 2013, combined with an additional 19,800 jobs in September. Yet according to market predictions, additional employment in Australia in the month will only reach 15,000.

 

The growth trend of Australia's productive age workforce also increased by 0.7 percent, to 61.6 percent. This figure is the highest since August 2012. Full time workforce (full-time) increased by 6,100 people while part-time workforce increased 13,700 people.

 

The magnitude of the Australian Employment data this time has led economists from NSW to add an optimistic view. If the unemployment rate is able to reach 4.6 percent, then Australia will enter full employment round.

 

However, once China's GDP data is released thereafter, AUD/USD does not increase its gains and drain its gains. AUD/USD fell to the 0.7846 level after the China Bureau of Statistics reported that the country's GDP for the third quarter was at a 6.8 percent percentage, according to expectations.

[myregister]

The Australian dollar showed gains against US Dollar entering the European session Monday this afternoon, amid fragile sentiment against the US Dollar grip on market concerns about a slowdown in US inflation.

 

The Australian dollar gained support after comments from RBA Governor Philip Lowe on November 23 at a dinner with Australian businessmen and economists, who expressed expectations of RBA interest rates likely to rise rather than fall.

 

Rising interest rates tend to strengthen the exchange rate of a currency, because it means it will attract investors to a higher return in the country. However, responding to Lowe's statement, Lien said that the central bank's governor did not say clearly whether he expected a rate hike in the near future.

 

It is expected that the upcoming AUDUSD will strengthen but considering there is Yellen's and other bank governor's specch this week it looks like after this there will be a slowdown with a fixed trend for this pair to keep rising past the 0.76502 level limit.

[myregister]

The Australian dollar added to Wednesday's trading gain against the US Dollar. AUD/USD seems to track towards level 0.7577, from the previous session at 0.7552. The increase came as the market awaits monetary policy from the Fed's FOMC meeting early in the day.

 

This morning, Australia's Consumer Confidence Index for December of Westpac, reportedly rose about 3.6 percent to its highest level in four years. The previous month, the index declined to 1.7 percent. The report is surprising and shows that Consumer Confidence is likely to hit its lowest level in the third quarter.

 

In addition to the report, this morning the Governor of Central Bank of Australia (RBA), Philip Lowe, delivered his speech. At the Australian Payment Summit, Lowe said that the central bank is still studying the pros and cons that accompany the idea of ​​electronic Australian Dollar or e-AUD.

 

The RBA's interest in crypto currency, comes after cash is being abandoned by Australian consumers. Lowe explained that according to the RBA survey of 2016, cash transactions in the community only reached 37 percent, far down from 70 percent in 2007. Furthermore, Lowe asserted that the Australian electronic currency system still needs to be developed carefully first.