Euro Daily Fundamental Analysis

[Latham Lapard]

 

GBP/USD went down in massive way touching near 1.2350 levels, but turned even quicker with reaching 1.25 level, but just remains fingertip under it. So, it will be interesting to see how it works out ahead which will make the things clear.

[myregister]

Euro exchange rate movements on European session consolidated against the US dollar after price opening higher at 1.0655 in early trading (0000 GMT), and the Euro exchange rate is now rolling on the position of 1.0654.

The consolidation movement of EURUSD pair on EU session because lack of economic data strong euro area. US dollar bullish momentum still dominates which causes the weakening of EURUSD pair.

Technically, EURUSD moving down towards the range of 1.0622 - 1.0609, and in case of a positive correction, the pair may rise towards the range of 1.0682-1.0712. Analysts argued that EURUSD is estimated to have the support level at 1.0589 area and the resistance level at 1.0741.

[myregister]

Euro exchange rate movements on Asia trading session consolidated against the US dollar after the price opening lower at 1.0626 in early trading, and Euro exchange rate is now rolling at 1.0620.

 

The movement of EURUSD pair in the end of Asia session remained pressured by a surge in political risk sentiment that occurred in several major European countries such as France, Italy, the Netherlands and Greece. Furthermore, President Mario Draghi withdraw from defending the ECB has been criticized by US President Donald Trump some time ago.

 

Technically, EURUSD moving down towards the support range between 1.060 - 1.0570, and in case of a positive correction, the pair may rise towards the range of 1.0655-1.0665. Many analysts think that EURUSD for the next session is estimated to have support level at 1.0541 and the resistance level at 1.0708.

[myregister]

Euro exchange rate movements on European session consolidated against US dollar after the opening price is higher at 1.0595 in early trading, and the Euro exchange rate is now rolling at around 1.0654.

The movement of EURUSD at the beginning of the European session is still bullish but began trimmed with data releases prelim Q4 German GDP lower than expected. Next there will be a flash GDP data release expected the same area and also the data ZEW economic sentiment in the estimate is lower.

Technically, EURUSD will rise towards the resistance range between 1.0638 - 1.0657, and in case of a negative correction, the pair may fall towards the range of 1.0577-1.0551. Analysts estimated that EURUSD pair will have the support level at 1.0513 and the resistance level at 1.0686.

[myregister]

The movement of EURUSD on Wednesday (15/2) increasingly depressed position even after dropped for around 6 consecutive days after the previous trading fell to its lowest level since January 12 about 3 weeks or more. The negative sentiment was still coming from the Prelim GDP data release Q4-2016 for Germany and the Euro area countries.

Euro that had strengthened by the rise of the safe-haven trade after plunging Asian stock markets and the opening of the European session, dropped back by the Prelim GDP data release Q4-2016 were disappointing both for Germany and the Euro area. Pressure continues entering the American session the dollar rebounded after the PPI data release last January and by hawkish comments Janet Yellen.

Ending the second day forex trading this week, Euro fell towards 1.0576, and entering the Asia session, EURUSD opened at 1.0574 and is now moving down towards the support level at 1.0568. And for the next trade there are the driving catalyst of regional trade balance data which is expected to be lower.

[Latham Lapard]

 

UJ is picking up quickly with visiting near 115 level, but sharped fast to sit around 114 mark, it is a sort of scenario that could change, but it is unlikely to happen this week as per the events which are lined up ahead.

[myregister]

Even if the positive sentiment was giving strength to rise dollars on US session, but several of its main rivals was able to stand strong and move the rally. One of which euro which has a weak driving sentiment since the beginning of the European session of the few economic data releases.

 

From the beginning of the European session, there are some economic data which has been released such as performance data business services sector some Euro area member states, then there are German retail sales data and a region which is also disappointing. The data indicated the majority of the negative sentiment.

 

Global financial markets are waiting for the signal expectations of a Fed rate hike at the meeting in March after several senior officials of the central bank has given the hawkish comments last few days. If Janet Yellen hawkish speech, rally strength EURUSD will be trimmed. For the next trade until the close of trading ending the American session tomorrow morning,  EURUSD has chance to fall back to 1,0557-1.0490.

[Latham Lapard]

 

This pair was heading down right throughout the week, but happening around Euro turned the table sharply and we saw the pair pull up rapidly going into1.06 levels, it remains to be seen if this can continue, but for now this looks like a good chance to go for long.

[Latham Lapard]

 

It was a one way trip to the upside when the market opened last week. The price added nearly 110 pips, reaching a high of 1.0779 and a low of 1.0609. It was another week of USD not doing well. Next week is going to be lot volatile as there would be French elections results for round 1, likely nuclear test by North Korea, likely US tax reform bill and other uncertainties which should see the price action to be choppy!

[zahidawan]

hmm... interesting let's see .... 

[Latham Lapard]

 

EUR/USD this week has been very much negative and which was mostly to do with the Donald Trump’s actions regarding the firing of FBI Director James Comey which caused the dollar to weaken, it is likely that we will see it having effect this week as well.

[Latham Lapard]

 

This pair is running hot with the trend continuing on bullish note. However, as we can see on SAR indicator, it is showing for bearish trend, so the scenario right now it is pretty mixed and there are really no guarantees of how things are going to pan out.

[myregister]

Looking at Euro's very fast movement in European session trading on Tuesday, EURUSD drove to the highest position throughout 2017 and potentially rises steadily to new record positions. The strong strength of EURUSD comes from the positive sentiment of ECB President Mario Draghi's speech in the Euro-zone's central banking forum in Portugal.

 

In his speech, the threat of deflation in the region of one currency has been lost and Mario Draghi also hinted at the withdrawal of stimulus amid widespread economic recovery in the Euro region. After this speech the pair of consolidated EURUSD moves since the Asian session went fast.

 

The EURUSD pair movement on European session moved strongly after the opening price opened higher than previous trading at 1.1183 based on early Asian session trading, right now EURUSD traded at around 1.1273 and earlier had touched the lows at 1.1177.

 

For further technical trading EURUSD signals a positive move until the end of the session, and will get stronger until it reaches a new record if the Fed's awaited late-night market comment disappoints of the US dollar.

[Latham Lapard]

 

EUR/USD pair has been bullish for quite some time now and has continued with the gains. However, as we go ahead during his week, it is to see that there are major events set to reveal which might take this pair to different route or will simply push it further.

[myregister]

Euro slipped on this afternoon, adding to its weekly decline to its biggest in more than two months. The market considers that double-digit Euro picks during the year are excessive. Especially because the European Central Bank (ECB) seemed still hesitant to remove their stimulus.

 

EUR/USD slipped 0.17 to around 1.1740, following a 0.5% decline last week. According to Reuters data, it is the pair's biggest weekly decline since June 9. In general, EUR / USD movements appear flat in the European session this afternoon.

 

Nevertheless, Euro has scored a gain of up to 11 percent so far this year, making it the best-performing G-10 currency. The ECB president will not deliver a message on monetary policy at the Jackson Hole symposium, Wyoming. In fact, some market participants expect the ECB will begin to reduce its stimulus, and the gesture was originally expected to be alluded to in the symposium.

[myregister]

Euro sagged in the European session, Tuesday (22 / August) this afternoon in connection with the strengthening US Dollar. In addition, high market expectations in anticipation of ECB leaders' statements at the Jackson Hole conference over the weekend also became Euro suppliers.

 

On Friday this week, ECB President Mario Draghi will be the speaker. What will be delivered Draghi will be considered not less important with the statement of Fed Chairman, Janet Yellen. Thus, the two heads of the central bank will be in the spotlight.

 

However, Draghi is not expected to spark new policy messages. There will be no comment on the ECB's stimulus reduction program. According to the source, Draghi will highlight the problems of the global economy.

 

Since touching a two-and-a-half-year high at 1.1910 in early August, the Euro is slowly sluggish. Especially, after the ECB officials revealed in the minutes of the meeting in July, that they have not talked about the problem of quantitative easing (QE) reduction.

 

Regardless of the Jackson Hole Symposium, this afternoon Germany released data on ZEW Economic Sentiment which dropped 7.5 points in August and was at 10.0. This figure is well below the long-term average of 23.8 points. Reports from Germany is an additional burden to Euro.

[myregister]

German Business Confidence for August reported a smaller-than-expected decline. After maintaining three consecutive levels high, the index eventually collapsed. This condition is an indication that the increase in consumption in the euro zone's largest economy will continue amid a car emissions scandal.

 

In a report released by IFO on Friday (25 / August), the Business Climate Index, based on a monthly survey of 7,000 companies, declined to 115.9 from 116.0 in July. The index is better than economists forecast, which is a decline to 115.5.

 

The German economy still has room to grow. The IFO business index came after a report on German GDP grew by 0.6 percent (QoQ) and 2.1 percent (YoY). Post of the report, EUR / USD stabilized in the range around 1.1800, but started rising towards the 1.1804 level when this news was written. Euro traders are still waiting for Governor Draghi's speech at the Jackson Hole conference.

[myregister]

The euro extended its gains early in the trading session Monday today, to a two-and-a-half year high against the US Dollar. EUR / USD added 0.1 percent rise to 1.1959 early in the session, the highest since January 2015. Nevertheless, EUR / USD has fallen from the peak, with the trading flat at 1.1923.

 

The Euro against the US Dollar this morning was influenced by Draghi's speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, over the weekend, as well as market concerns about the impact of Hurricane Harvey on the US economy.

 

The strength of the Euro can not be a major complaint about the region that is being benefited by the large trade surplus, a stable economy, and already endangered deflation, such as the current Euro Zone. Thus, there is a chance for speculators to buy Euro without worrying too much.

[myregister]

Euro rose toward $ 1.20 level in the trading session this afternoon against US Dollar. That level was reached for the first time since January of 2015. The US dollar itself is falling, especially against Yen, in light of the latest geopolitical tensions caused by North Korea's missile provocation.

 

EUR / USD touched a high of 1.2033, the strongest level since January 2015. The pair has traded around 1.2037. Hopes that the European Central Bank (ECB) will soon announce its plan to reduce its bond purchases as an attempt to tapering monetary stimulus, has been a major driver of the Euro currency so far.

 

Against Pound Sterling, Euro also gain a rise as high as 0.31 percent towards around the level of 0.9290. This level is the highest since October of 2009. As for now, EUR / GBP has moved down to trade at 0.9288. During the year 2017, the Euro has risen as much as 9 percent against Pound sterling. This condition is a reflection of the divergence of the economic outlook and monetary policy Zone Euro and England.

[myregister]

EURUSD pair bounced back early in Asia on Wednesday after yesterday declined sharply close to 1.195. The focus of the market shifts to the economic releases that will come out of the two continents today, among them German Prelim CPI in August and ADP labor data and revised US GDP.

 

Currently, it seems EURUSD is trading at 1.1980,  bounce about 10 pips from the overnight closing. On Tuesday's trading, this pair had broken the psychological level of 1.1200 as an escalation of geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula led investors to release the US dollar.

 

If the German inflation data estimation is above the 0.1 percent, EURUSD is likely to hold strong at 1.1206 given last week economic data in the euro zone's largest economy showed figures above estimates such as Ifo business climate and manufacturing PMI near 60.

[myregister]

Eurozone inflation is reported to have increased in excess of economists' expectations. As a result, the market expects the debate of policymakers in the ECB about the future of the stimulus program to rise again. The EU Bureau of Statistics reported that Euro Zone CPI rose to a 1.5 percent level in August, from 1.3 percent level in July. That figure is higher than the Bloomberg economists estimate in the range of 1.4 percent.

 

Acceleration of consumer inflation is still contributed most to the increase in energy prices. Previously, German and Spanish inflation also reportedly exceeded estimates. As for Core Inflation, which does not take into account the price of food and fuel, it remains stable at around 1.2 percent.

 

In addition to inflation, the Euro Zone this afternoon also reported that the Unemployment Rate was stable at 9.1 percent in July, the same as in June. Thus, the ECB needs to re-discuss the future of their QE plan, which will soon expire by the end of this year. In response to the report, EURUSD shows the rise to 1.1890. EUR / GBP even show a fairly sharp spike, towards 0.9227.

[myregister]

Euro climbed in the European trading session on Thursday, this afternoon ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) later in the day. The market expects the ECB to address the Euro's strengthening in recent times and how it will impact on the outlook for next monetary policy.

 

EUR / USD jumped about 0.1 percent towards the higher price at around  1.1925 and continued extending its gains to 1.1963 as for now. The pairs are getting closer to weekend highs at 1.2070, the highest since January 2015.

 

The euro has lost some momentum since touching a 2-year peak, as on the other hand also weighed by rising expectations that a stronger euro will slow the ECB's plans to reduce its bond-buying stimulus. Only 15 of 66 economists surveyed by Reuters, which estimates the ECB will announce its monthly stimulus reduction in today's monetary policy meeting.

[myregister]

Euro is still ahead of the US Dollar after the currency is also called a single currency that gets a boost from the ECB monetary policy. EUR / USD seems to extend its gains and has traded around 1.2066, extending gains from the 1,194 low which reached before ECB announced its monetary policy yesterday afternoon.

 

The European Central Bank (ECB) has again decided to maintain its loose monetary policy in September, by not changing the low-interest rate and still making bond purchases.The ECB is still opening the door for additional bond purchases as needed, although currently, Euro Zone economy has been in the best condition since the global financial crisis. Euro floods buying action, as Draghi said the tapering decision is likely to be done in October.

 

However, the ECB in general also still implies rather a dovish sentiment, so the Euro may turn around for sale once the market permeates it. Moreover, the yield on German bonds declined. Nevertheless, the Euro still maintained gains thanks to the outstanding US Dollar in weakness.

[myregister]

The euro slipped to a one-month low on Tuesday's trading session this afternoon and became its worst day so far this year. Investors are worried if the issue of coalition formation in Germany will adversely affect the economy and drag the Euro Zone to the problem of integration difficulties.

 

Yesterday, Merkel also issued a special note to respond to France's call on Fiscal Unions. French President Emmanuel Macron wants a fundamental overhaul across the Eurozone.

 

EUR / USD is trading at around 1.1821 when the news is written, after briefly touching the level at around 1.1811 on the trading session in London. On the other hand, EUR / JPY decreased about 0.21 percent to 132.09.

 

Sentiment on the euro was also hit by a statement by ECB President Mario Draghi yesterday. Draghi admits that Euro Zone inflation has strengthened lately. However, it also includes a phrase that shows that currency volatility uncertainty can not be ruled out. Therefore, monetary easing may still be needed.

[myregister]

Euro appeared to be perched at a two-month high against US Dollar and strengthened against other major currencies early in the trading session this Monday thanks to steady German Business Confidence data late last week. The economic report has eased fears of political instability in the continent's largest economy.

 

Nevertheless, the strengthening of the Euro looks unsustainable and began to slop. EUR/USD is trading at 1.1927, down from a peak at 1.1946 reached late last week. EUR/USD has raised 3.2% gain since the beginning of this month, at which time the pair dipped to a low of 1.1553.

 

German Ifo Business Belief Data last week was accompanied by positive developments from German politics. After failing to form a three-way coalition with FDP and Greens, Chancellor Angela Merkel gets an offer to open a coalition with the SDP party. This is considered a distinct relief over German political uncertainty.

 

On the other hand, although this morning the US market is still close, the market focus that could drive US Dollar this week is the development of Trump's tax reform. In addition, tomorrow the market will also observe a speech by New Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Congressional Hearing.