Yen Daily Fundamental Analysis

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US Federal Reserve decision to raise interest rates 25 basis points higher to suppress the strong Japanese yen exchange rate, particularly USDJPY. Yen collapsed to its lowest in eight months after US bond yields soaring trade since September 2014.

USDJPY rapidly advanced to the highest position of 8 months rests on sentiments of the Fed hawkish as expected by the market and economists. Yen which has fundamentally very weak compared to US dollar became very upset this morning although there were positive sentiment from the data flash manufacturing PMI higher than the previous period and also expectations. The flash PMI data reported by the Markit.

For the movement of this pair from now until the end of New York seesion has bigger potential to rise steadily, so many analysts estimated that USDJPY may rise further to around the resistance range between 118.14 to 118.61. But if it does not penetrate these ranges can expect a correction down to 115.92.

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The movement of USDJPY pair on Asian session retreat after opening higher at 118.19 in early trading , and now the pair is at 118.14. Japanese Yen on late Asian session trying to rebound after 3 days of powerful pressured by a surge in US bond yields to the highest since September 2014. 

Fundamentally pair USDJPY rally is still potential which has entered into a weekly basis sixth consecutive week. USDJPY rise to the resistance range between 118.77-119.60. Throughout today analysts estimate that USDJPY today will have the support level at 114.78 and the resistance level at 119.88.

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Exchange rate of the Japanese yen in early Asia trade is still able to move positively in line with the decline in US bond yields which reduce the strength of the US dollar as the market hunting for safe-haven assets. But now monitored pair is still moving positively in line with the results of the monthly meeting of the BOJ less surprise.

The yen's strength this morning a statement obtained by Japan's Cabinet Office is projecting economic growth of Japan's 2017 GDP increased by 1.5% after a previously estimated 1.2% position. Likewise, throughout the year 2016 real GDP rose to 1.3% after a previous position at 0.9% and inflation rate rose 1.1% in 2017.

For the movement of the pair until the end of the evening session trading has the potential to rise steadily, so many analysts estimated that USDJPY further may rise to the higher place again or at around the resistance range between 117.65 to 117.90 and if it is failed then it is clear the price will fall towards the support range between 116.80-116.12.

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Although US government reported the performance of the property sector is on the rise with the release of existing home sales data is impressive, movement of the USDJPY pair rose only moment during the NY session after finally trimmed. USDJPY weakening sentiment triggered by the Christmas holidays which makes the market attractive dollar.

For the fundamental strength of the Japanese yen against the dollar is still weak, because the new government is planning an increase in economic growth in 2017. While the US dollar is already receiving strong force of rising interest rates the US Federal Reserve last week and planned to rise further in 2017 as many as three times.

For the next movement until the evening session, USDJPY pair can go back receiving the positive sentiment from the final data release Q3 2016 US GDP. In the Asian session there is no local economic data that drives the Japanese yen. For the movement of the pair until the end of the evening session trading has the potential to rise, so USDJPY will rise to resistance range from 117.91 to 118.22.

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Yen exchange rate movements against the US dollar throughout the session managed to rebound last week after the previous 6 weeks depressed quite strongly by the strengthening US dollar. Power rebounding of yen gained most from dollar weakness sentiment so strong depressed USDJPY.

 

The drop in USDJPY last week received negative sentiment from the pressure of profit-taking by sentiment Christmas holiday which makes the market a lot of dollars removing large enough. Besides the pressure pair also obtained from BOJ monetary policy unchanged at the end of the fixed interest rate. But the pair got a little wind immediate expectations of BOJ to raise rate of inflation below the target of 2 percent.

 

For the movement of trading this week, many analysts sentiment for this pair said that the support level for USDJPY pair may reached at 115.42 and if able to break it then will fall to 114.10 while resistance at 118.60 and then 119.70

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Yen on the Asia session show a mixed movement and have zig zag on Wednesday (28/12), the Japanese government launched economic data for the development of retail sales and also prelim industrial production of the country. These data show mixed results so that the movement of the USDJPY pair may able to continue its rally.

Yen hit by poor economic data reported to the Cabinet Office of Japan and also the strong sentiment of the release of US economic data on consumer confidence in the US state. This time the yen was not given the chance to take a deep breath of relief that pushed back towards the worst position for the currency of the country.

Japan's Cabinet Office this morning reported the country's industrial production lower than expected increase, but higher than the previous period. And for retail sales increased from the previous period experienced contraction, also increased expectations of an increase.

For the next movement until the evening session, USDJPY has a chance to receive the positive sentiment back because of the release of pending home sales data is expected to show an increase in bookings growth of existing homes in the US state. But if the result gives a disappointment then the power pair can be trimmed.
 

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In the midst of Japan's financial markets, yen could rebound on Tuesday (3/1). But not last long when entered the European session, which immediately cut and make further USDJPY rallied up to the opening of American session tonight. Manufactursing sentiment by ISM data release provides power for USD.

No longer Markit and ISM survey will report them to the last condition of domestic manufacturing business United States, namely the period from December. From the report predicted scores showed improvement from the previous month period.

For the movement of this pair until the end of the evening session trading has the potential to rise steadily, so many analysts estimated that USDJPY have the chance to rise to around the resistance range between 118.37 to 118.68. But if there is a correction will come down to the support range between 117.70-117.02.

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The movement of USDJPY on European session moves weaker after opening higher at 117.26 in early trading, and now the pair is at 116.44. Until now the pair has reached strong support range.

Japanese Yen on European session still shows the movement rallied after strong rebound earlier trading post FOMC minutes which makes US bond yield fell to its lowest in three weeks. In the treatise mentioned the uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of the policies of President Trump and fears the Fed will disinflation strong US dollar.

Technically, USDJPY may continue to the support range between 115.31-113.99, and if there is a correction, it can rise again headed to the range of 117.65-118.28 . Throughout this day USDJPY today will have the support level at 115.16 and the resistance level at 118.64.

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USDJPY based on Europa session was moving stronger than what expected even after the price opened higher at around 115.36 in early trading, and now the pair is at 116.15. Pair trying to achieve strong resistance range.

Japanese Yen on European session make a profit taking after 2 straight days of strong rally against the US dollar, so USDJPY pair gain and rose from its lowest level since December 14, 2016. USDJPY sentiment lifted by wishful positive NFP data market will lift the dollar in the US session US returned.

Technically, USDJPY could fall towards the support range between 114.73-113.77. If this pair failed to fall then this pair will rise towards the resistance range between 116.50-116.98. Throughout this day, analysts estimated that USDJPY have the support level at 113.77 and resistance level at 117.45

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The movement of USDJPY pair on Asia session objectively stronger than expected after opened lower at 117.01 in early trading (0000 GMT), and now the pair is at 117.46. Pair trying to achieve strong resistance range.

Yen is still depressed simultaneously with her off the Japanese financial markets are more driven by the sentiment of the US dollar. The rise in US Treasuries at the end of last week succeeded in energizing rally for USDJPY pair. But in the American session can be corrected if the sentiment driving the US dollar depressed.

Technically, USDJPY could fall to the range of support between 116.30-115.60 if the current pair did not manage to penetrate around 118.88. Throughout today analysts estimate that USDJPY will have the support level at 115.01 and the resistance level at 118.61.

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Japanese yen still managed to continue to rally the previous 3 days trading after the Nikkei closed in the red zone that triggered safe-haven trade. USDJPY therefore only survive in the best position and around 115.00 after then retreat to around 114.00.

In early Asian session yen had gained responding to the drop in US bond yields after the speech of President Trump for failing to spell out the shape policies promised during the campaign to make the US economy more intense. In addition, the price is under pressure from the consolidation of local economic data such as current account and economy watcher Japanese sentiment exceeded the previous month's data.

For the movement of the pair until the end of the evening session trading has the potential fall deeper, so there are a lot of analysts estimated that further USDJPY will drop to around the range of 113.90 to 113.09. But if there is a correction then this pair will rise towards the range of 115.72-114.75.

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The movement of USDJPY on Asia session (11:00:25 GMT) is still weak even after the price actually opened lower at around 114.33 in early trading (0000 GMT), and now the pair is rolling at around 114.18.

Yen in the end of Asia session still able to continue the rally since last week's trading by safe-haven sentiment post news British PM to announce the release of the country from the European Union.

Technically USDJPY attempted to climb against its resistance between 114.62-114.94, and if it is not transparent may fall back towards the support range between 113.80-113.44. Throughout today analysts estimate that the normal range for USDJPY pair today will have the support level at 112.77 and the resistance level at 115.91

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The movement of USDJPY on European session which rose after the price opened lower at around 114.51 in early trading (0000 GMT), and now USDJPY's price is at 115.12 and run through a range of strong resistance.

The positive sentiment that could lift the Japanese yen inflation data reported that the Japanese government earlier on Asian session, but trimmed back by a strong US dollar bullish momentum weekend.

Technically USDJPY is still able to rise up to the resistance range between 115.60-116.00. Throughout today analysts estimate that the normal range for USDJPY pair today will have the support level at 113.04 and the resistance level at 115.98 which is the last resistance.

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Strong movement of USDJPY is trimmed in line with the decline of US dollar market interest which will be disillusioned by the Fed's policy announcement earlier. And USDJPY experienced profit taking and making the Japanese yen rebounded again. Fed policy sentiment earlier in the year is still pressing this  pair.

 

Fundamentally the movement of the yen under pressure of bad data is foreign investment in the stock market and trading Japanese bonds ended last week scored a fairly large net sell of net buy period prior week.

 

For the movement of the pair until the end of the evening session trading has the potential to go up if the release of US jobless claims data lower than expected and decline in the previous period. The market was still awaiting US NFP data due to be released Friday.

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The movement of USDJPY pair on Europe session rose after it opened weaker at around 113.22 in early trading, and now the pair observed to keep rising and even touched around level 113.61 which is strong resistance and had already passed.

The movement of the Japanese yen is weak on European session induced by decline in JGB yields as a result of bond purchases by the BOJ's big enough. In addition the US dollar bullish momentum is still hamper Yen.

Technically USDJPY able to rise up to the resistance range between 114.05-114.87, but in case of a negative correction, then it may fall towards the range of 113.02 - 112.52. Until the end many analysts estimate that USDJPY will have the support level at 111.07 and the resistance level at 113.43

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The movement Yen on Asia session on Monday (13/2) experienced a decline against the US dollar.  USDJPY seesn railly for about 3 consecutive days which was triggered by the release of Japanese GDP Q4 Prelim Data 2016 is lower than the preceding quarter.

 

Before the release of economic data above, USDJPY opened at a position higher than the previous trading by the US-Japan sentiment meeting weekend. The meeting, which became the focus of global markets led to a mutual agreement that is mutually beneficial.

 

USDJPY opened at around  113.57 and rolling at 113.85. For the next trade until the European session tonight, US dollar seems to be moving bullish so USDJPY here has the potential to continue to follow the movement of strong US Dollar even until the last of US session tonight.

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The movement of USDJPY on Europe session weakened after the price opened lower at 113.72 in early trading (0000 GMT), and now the pair is still at 113.47 and had already passed strong support.

The movement of the Japanese yen tried to rally on European session after pressure from the US dollar for 3 consecutive days. The yen strengthened by red sentiment trading session of stock exchanges in Asia and Europe. But on American session, USDJPY pair could rebound if Janet Yellen gives hawkish sentiment.

Technically USDJPY was weak and fall down towards the range of 113.05-112.58, but if it is not up to that range this pair may rebound towards the resistance range between 113.90 - 114.33. Until the American session ended, analysts estimate that USDJPY will have the support level at 112.59 and the resistance level at 114.41.

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The movement of the Japanese yen experienced continued weakness against US dollar after 2 consecutive days before get a strong pressure. The yen's strength that had mastered US dollar in the previous trading did not last long after the trade of risky assets rose back after the strength of the dollar and Wall Street stocks also rallied.

Previously, Yen managed to defeat the US dollar due to the stock exchange trading which is red on Asia region and also the opening of European stock exchanges. Redness of the stock exchange trading both raised area so that exalts yen safe haven.

But the direction of the trade began to change as the US dollar momentum booster emerge since PPI data release and Janet Yellen hawkish statement in a meeting with Senate Banking Congress. The next step for trading the yen to rebound throughout the day quite difficult because of the strong sentiment driving on US session tonight that underpin the US dollar.

After being closed bullish at around 114.23, USDJPY movement on Asia session seems to be weakening after the price opened lower at around 114.22 earlier on Asia session.

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The movement of USDJPY on early European session (13:30:15 GMT) weakened after opening price was lower at around 114.13 on early Asia session, and now the pair is still at 113.42 and seek to achieve strong support.

Generally, it seems that USDJPY will fall down towards the range of 112.90-112.61 if the pair rebounds, it may reach the range of 113.70 - 114.29. Until the end of NY session, many analysts predicted USDJPY will have the support at 112.36 and the resistance level at 114.34.

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In the middle of the European session forex trading (28/2),Yen remained on track sentiment rebounded strongly by safe-haven trading market will respond to concerns of the political conditions such as the European region in France and the UK. Consideration of these conditions make the market take off back in the US dollar tried to rally.

 

For the catalysts driving USDJPY pair on Asian session there is a release of mixed data from the Japanese economic reports such as reports prelim industrial production and retail sales data also strengthening. The most powerful support came from momentum lift yen profit taking US dollars.

 

For the next trade until the American session tonight, US dollar is still trying to move bullish sentiment budget that will be presented before the US Congress Donald Trump so USDJPY pair has the potential to continue decline towards the support range between 111.94-111.40.

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The movement of USDJPY on  European session (14:00:35) are still bearish move after opening higher at 114.39 in early trading (0000 GMT), and now the pair is down in the position of 114.20.

 

Technically, the USDJPY pair will rise to around 114.55 during the American session because of bullish sentiment since some fundamental data on USD are expected to rise like non PMI. Throughout today many analysts see that normal range between USDJPY is estimated to have support level at around 112.39 and resistance at 116.03.

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In the middle of European trading session on Thursday (22/6) regional stock market is still in the red zone by the sentiment of crude oil price decline. Falling stock markets since Asia session gave a positive sentiment for Yen's exchange rate to safe-haven currencies at a time when trading assets were at risk of being ignored.

 

The movement of USDJPY on European session moved negatively after opened lower than previous trading at 111.35 on early Asian trading session, USDJPY is now at 111.03 after having reached the highest position at 111.42.

 

For further, and according to fundamental analysis that USDJPY will potentially move bearish if the fundamental position of US dollar weakened by falling US government bond yields are also overshadowed by the release of unemployment claims data.

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The movement of USDJPY on Asia session (11:20:15 WIB) is moving weakly after the price of this pair opened flat or equal to the previous trading close at 112.16 in early Asian session (00.00 GMT), and now the pair is rolling at 111.94.

 

Fundamentally it seems that, USDJPY moves up towards the starting position of this session and if the break continues to climb to upper line at 112.74. But if it goes down again will slide towards 110.89. Many analysts suggests that the USDJPY normal range is expected to have support levels at 110.53 and resistance levels at 113.47.

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The dollar climbed against Yen in the trading session Monday earlier this week. USD / JPY seems to be trading above a four-month low. Political tensions between the US and North Korea remain key events for the outlook for the pair's moves in the short term.

 

In addition to pressure from the geopolitical side, pressure on US Dollar was also added by weak US inflation data for July. On Friday last week, the US CPI reportedly grew only 0.1 percent in July. Expectation of growth is 0.2 percent. This figure is unchanged from the June gains. On an annualized basis, US inflation rose 1.7% year on year or was below expectations.

 

As a result, expectations of a Fed rate hike for the third time this year should be rethought. USD / JPY which had touched a low at 108,909 after the US CPI report released, seemed to continue to improve. This afternoon, USD / JPY has reached the range between 109.87.

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The US dollar is still in the high level against the Japanese yen in Friday's trading session (25 / August) this morning, although it started to slip on the H1 chart. A number of market players again hunted the Yen, given the closer the meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

 

Two of the central bank's most eagerly awaited market leaders are Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi. The chairman of the Fed and the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to provide guidance on their monetary policy. About the rate hike for the Fed and about the stimulus reduction for the ECB.

 

USDJPY is trading at 109.616, down from the peak level at 109,739. According to Marc Chandler of Brown Brother Harriman, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen's speech will not be much different from the New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley's June statement on the issue of inflation.

 

The greenback has advanced 0.3 percent in a week against the yen this week. Earlier, the USD / JPY had slipped to a low at108,635 per yen in relation to the geopolitical turmoil that occurred in North Korea. But then, investors shifted their focus to political turmoil in Washington.