LiteForex Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart the pair is traded within the middle line and the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator, the growth of price slowed. The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are minimal, the signal line crosses the zero line downwards, giving a signal to open short positions. The Stochastic is growing towards the border of the neutral zone whit the overbought one, the signal line is pointed upwards, in case of crossing of the border the sell signal will be received.

XAG/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart the pair is traded sideways within the narrow channel of the Bollinger Bands indicator borders. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, moving sideways and keeping its volumes at the level of 0.060. The Stochastic is in the neutral zone, giving no clear signal.

Key levels

Support levels: 16.80, 16.20, 15.75, 15.50.
Resistance levels: 17.50, 18.00, 18.50.

Trading scenario

Open short positions at the current price with the target at 16.80. Stop loss is at 17.70. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
Open long positions at the level of 17.70 with the target at 18.50 and stop loss at 17.30. Implementation period: 1-3 days.


 

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

During the trading session on Wednesday the gold prices grew by 0.38% due to the weakening of the USD. The price met the resistance level of 1251.21 and was slightly corrected. The traders’ activity lowered in expectation of the Head of the FRS Janet Yellen Speech today (14:45 GMT+2). The investors are waiting for the signals about the interest rate rise. If Janet Yellen implies the possibility of the rise on the June meeting, the USD will be significantly supported in the short term, which leads to the lowering the metal prices to the level of 1240.37 and lower. The neutral mood of the commentaries will support the gold prices to grow to the area of 1260.00.

Support and resistance

The technical picture is mixed. The Bollinger Bands indicator is pointed upwards, reflecting the possibility of further growth. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes decreasing, reflecting the lowering of the traders’ activity. In case of breakout of the level of 1251.21 the upward trend will develop further.
Support levels: 1244.17, 1237.86, 1230.84.
Resistance levels: 1251.21, 1260.18, 1268.51.

Trading scenario

Open short positions below the level 1244.17 with the target at 1237.86 and stop loss at 1246.17.
Open long positions above the level 1251.21 with the target at в районе 1260.18 and stop loss at 1248.20.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

 

[LiteForexTeam]

XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains on the level with its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is approaching its longer MA. The Composite is testing its strong resistance.

XAG/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains just above its moving averages that start turning up. The RSI is testing its longer MA from below. The Composite turned up having failed its beginning of the week support. Both indicators are forming a Bearish pattern.

Key levels

Support levels: 17.27 (local lows), 17.20 (50% Fibonacci retracement), 16.80 (March lows).
Resistance levels: 17.73 (local highs), 18.02 (61.8% retracement), 18.38 (February highs).

Trading tips

The price is testing its previous descending trendline that coincides with its moving averages that the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. There is a chance of a downward rebound.

Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 17.27, 17.20 and stop-loss at 17.65. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 17.73 with targets at 18.02, 18.38 and stop-loss at 17.62. Validity – 3-5 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/


 

[LiteForexTeam]

NQ: general analysis

Current trend

In the opening trading session the US indices restores the losses: after reaching the minimum at the level of 5314.3 Nasdaq was corrected and now is trading at the level of 5332.1. The next target is at the 3/8 Murray or 5341.9.

The lowering was due to the cancelling of the health care reformation voting in the USA Congress. The Republicans didn’t come to the agreement upon the necessity of the reformation and postponed the voting for the indefinite period. A lot of investors were disappointed and began to doubt if Trump can provide the actions that he promised during the Evections and get the support of the Congress. On the other hand the USA can partially benefit from the lowering of the USD, as the US goods will become more competitive in the worlds markets, which is quite difficult to imply due to the tightening of the monetary policy.
This week the USA GDP data, which is to be published on Thursday, are worth traders’ attention. The index is expected to be 2%.
On the technical picture the Stochastic is above the level of 20 and reflects the growth of the index.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 5341.9.
Support levels: 5314.3.

Trading scenario

Open long positions at the current price with stop loss at 5314.3 and the target at 5341.9.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

 

[LiteForexTeam]

SPX: Fibonacci analysis

The new lowering to the levels of the March minima is possible.

On the 4-hour chart the price rebounded from the level of the minima of the last two months and tried to be corrected to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator (2342.5). The further movement is unlikely, as the pair should pass the downward fan. The key “bullish” level is at 2350.0 (correction 38.2%), in case of the breakout here the price can grow to the level of 2359.5 (correction 50.0%) and 2369.0 (correction 61.8%). The new lowering to the area of the levels of 2323.0 and 2319.5 (the March minima) seems more likely to develop. However in this case the price should be set below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and the level of 2338.5 (correction 23.6%). The Stochastic is reversing in the overbought area, which confirms the possibility of the lowering.

On the daily chart the price rebounded from the level of 2318.0 (correction 23.6%) and now is moving to the area of the middle line of the Bollinger Bands (2365.5). The Stochastic has reversed upwards, which confirms the forecast. However the possibility of the lowering is not excluded, as the sequence confirms it. The first target of the movement will be the level of 2318.0 (correction 23.6%), which has been tested before.

Trading scenario

The short positions seems more preferable, but open ones if the price is set below the level of 2338.5 with the target at 2326.0, 2319.5. Stop loss is at 2343.0.

Alternative scenario

Open long positions if the price is set above the level of 2350.0 with the target at 2365.5, 2369.0 and stop loss at 2346.0.
Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/


 

[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: technical analysis

NZD/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is trading just above the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is testing its longer MA from above. The Composite is about to test its longer MA as well.

NZD/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains just below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI keeps showing a Bearish dynamics. The Composite, however, is growing and is about to test its longer MA.

Key levels

Support levels: 0.6992 (local lows), 0.6950 (July 2016 lows), 0.6888 (March lows).
Resistance levels: 0.7072 (local highs), 0.7132 (February lows), 0.7188 (local highs).

Trading tips

The price is consolidating in a sideways channel. Positions can be opened after a breakout of one of its borders.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.6992 with targets at 0.6950, 0.6888 and stop-loss at 0.7020. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7072 with targets at 0.7132, 0.7188 and stop-loss at 0.7048. Validity – 3-5 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/


 

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

During the last 3 day the AUD/USD pair is growing despite the strengthening of the USD due to the positive commentaries of the USA FRS members Janet Yellen, Steven Kaplan, John Williams and Charles Evans. In addition the USD was supported by the positive fundamental data: Pending Home Sales data (much better than expected) and the Consumer Confidence index (better than expected, renewal of the 5 year maximum). However the pair was supported by the RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speech and the HIA New Home Sales data, so the AUD grew faster than the USD.

Today the USA Gross Domestic Product Annualized data (expected to be neutral), Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (expected to be neutral) and the Initial Jobless Claims data (expected to be negative)
The pair is expected to grow further.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7660, 0.7600, 0.7540, 0.7490, 0.7420.
Resistance levels: 0.7740, 0.7780, 0.7800, 0.7830.

Trading scenario

Buy the pair at the current price with the target at 0.7740, 0.7780 and stop loss at 0.7580.
Open short positions at the level of 0.7600 with the target at 0.7540 and stop loss at 0.7650.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/


 

[LiteForexTeam]

XAG/USD: general review

Current trend

After active growth during the week silver was corrected yesterday. The price returned to the level of 18.10 that had been successfully broken through a day earlier. The fall happened in view of strengthening of US dollar supported by positive GDP data and statements of FOMC representatives John Williams and Robert Kaplan. It seems  that the negative correlation between US dollar and precious metals started to work again after not so logical dynamics that has been observed from the end of the previous week.

Today the market is waiting for important US releases, namely personal income and expenses data at 14:30 (GMT+2) with a negative outlook, PMI Business Activity Index Chicago at 15:30 (GMT+2) also with a negative forecast, and Consumer Confidence data by the University of Michigan at 16:00 (GMT+2) with a neutral outlook.
Silver is likely to be corrected on the last trading day of the week and month.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 16.70, 17.05, 17.40, 17.75.
Resistance levels: 18.10, 18.45, 19.00.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened at market price with targets at 17.75 and stop-loss at 18.40.
Alternatively, one may consider buying if the price consolidates above 18.10 with targets at 18.45 and stop-loss at 17.90.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/


 

[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: technical analysis

NZD/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is trading on the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is testing its longer MA from above. The Composite is falling having broken down its longer MA.

NZD/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is falling having failed its longer MA. The Composite is approaching its longer MA having failed its most recent resistance.

Key levels

Support levels: 0.6965 (November 2016 lows), 0.6888 (March lows), 0.6875 (December 2016 lows).
Resistance levels: 0.7073 (local highs), 0.7132 (February lows), 0.7188 (local highs).

Trading tips

The pair is testing its short-term descending trendline. There is a high chance of a fall continuation.
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.6965, 0.6888, 0.6875 and stop-loss at 0.7017. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7073 with targets at 0.7132, 0.7188 and stop-loss at 0.7042. Validity – 3-5 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/


 

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

Last week the dynamics of the pair was mainly determined by US dollar. The growth of USD was influenced rather by the rhetorics of FOMC members than be actual fundamental values. As a result, the pair USD/JPY reached the zone of 112.00-112.10. However, it did not manage to break through this level and fell on Friday and Monday despite the growth of USD index. The strengthening of yen was caused by positive data of Japanese labour market and manufacturing industry published on Friday and Tankan Services PMI released yesterday.

No important releases from Japan are due today. US releases today include the data on trading balance at 14:30 (GMT+2) (a positive outlook with reduced deficiency) and manufacturing orders at 16:00 (GMT+2) (negative forecast), and at 22:30 (GMT+2) a statement by FOMC representative Daniel Tarullo.

Due to the absence of important publications from Japan and their small number from the USA, and also in view of the statement of Bank of Japan head Haruhiko Kuroda and publication of the minutes of a meeting of FOMC Open Markets Committee, the pair is likely to have steady dynamics within the range between 110.00-110.50 and 112.00.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 109.25, 107.50, 105.50.
Resistance levels: 109.25, 107.50, 105.50.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened if the price moves from the level of 110.60 with targets at 112.40 and stop-loss at 109.70.
Alternatively, sell positions may be opened if the price consolidates below 110.60 with targets at 109.25 and stop-loss at 111.40.

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[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CAD: general review

Current trend

In the end of last week, the Canadian Dollar strengthened after a publication of strong data on the GDP for January in Canada that came out significantly better than the forecasts. In addition, oil prices growth that started last week also provides substantial support to the Canadian Dollar. Yesterday, after the publication of data on the Canadian Trade Balance that showed nearly one billion deficit instead of an anticipated surplus, the CAD despite the data strengthened. As the result, the pair fell to a strong support level – the lower border of the previous channel.
Today attention should be paid to data from the US on the ADP Employment Change (2:15 pm GMT+2), the ISM and Markit Services PMI’s (3:45 pm and 4:00 pm GMT+2) and to the FOMC Minutes (8:00 pm GMT+2).

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.3200, 1.3280, 1.3350.
Resistance levels: 1.3440, 1.3540, 1.3600.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 1.3440, 1.3540 and stop-loss at 1.3350.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3440 with targets at 1.3350, 1.3280 and stop-loss at 1.3530.    

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/


 

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: PMI for the UK service sector_05/04/2017

Current dynamics
Published today at 11:30 (GMT + 3), the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the UK service sector for March came out at 55 (the forecast was 53.5). The publication of the index caused a sharp rise in the pound on the market. The pair GBP / USD jumped as the index was published to the level of 1.2489.
Last week, a revised report on UK GDP for the fourth quarter (+ 1.9% in annual terms against + 2.0% on updated data) was presented. As a result, the pound reacted to the publication of the report on GDP decline. The two previous sessions of the GBP / USD pair were actively declining. Today's publication of the index (PMI) for the services sector may have a short-term impact on the GBP / USD pair.
The pound is under pressure on the background of the beginning of negotiations on Brexit. Last week, British Prime Minister Theresa May signed a decree on the beginning of the British divorce proceedings with the European Union. The beginning of the two-year period of Brexit negotiations on the basis of Article 50 of the Lisbon Agreement is laid. Negotiations should begin within a few weeks. Nevertheless, positive macroeconomic reports from the last weeks coming from the UK indicate that the economy of the country did not collapse after the referendum on Brexit. However, the referendum hit hard on the pound's positions, which lost nearly 20% paired with the dollar to date. The pressure on the pound and the GBP / USD pair is maintained.
The focus of investors' attention on Wednesday will be the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the minutes from the March FOMC meeting, at which the Fed raised the rate by 0.25% to a level of 1.0%. If the FOMC protocols contain signals for the possibility of three or four rate increases, the dollar can receive significant support.
Also worth paying attention to the publication at 13:45, 14:00 (GMT) of business activity indexes in the US services sector for March and ADP report on employment in the private sector of the US economy. Many market participants consider it a harbinger of the official report on the labor market, which is published this Friday. Therefore, the reaction to the publication of the ADP report is also expected to be high.

Key levels
The pound continues to remain under pressure, and the GBP / USD pair is in a long-term downtrend since July 2014. Despite the fact that positive short-term dynamics predominate, in the medium term, the pressure on the GBP / USD pair will continue as long as the pair is below resistance level 1.2600 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
The indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the daily chart continue to remain on the side of sellers.
If the GBP / USD pair returns to the zone below the level of 1.2465 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), its decline may resume.
The reverse scenario is related with the growth above the level of 1.2465 and further growth to the level of 1.2600.
The different focus of monetary policies in the US and the UK, the exit from the EU are powerful fundamental factors that prevent the GBP / USD pair from recovering significantly. Negative fundamental background creates prerequisites for further decline in the pair GBP / USD, the negative dynamics of the pair GBP / USD is still predominant.
Support levels: 1.2465, 1.2412, 1.2390, 1.2340, 1.2150, 1.2000
Resistance levels: 1.2490, 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2800

Trading tips
Sell Stop 1.2455. Stop-Loss 1.2495. Take-Profit 1.2412, 1.2390, 1.2340, 1.2150
Buy Stop 1.2495. Stop-Loss 1.2455. Take-Profit 1.2535, 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2800


 

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

After the beginning of the Brexit procedure last week the pound, contrary to the opinions of analysts, showed positive dynamics. In the beginning of the current week in view of negative data from the UK (Construction and Manufacturing PMI) the pair dropped by almost 130 points. Yesterday Retail Prices Index and Services PMI in the UK appeared to be higher than forecast, and the pair grew and regained a number of positions lost in the beginning of the week, despite positive data on the unemployment rate from the USA.

No important releases from the UK are schedulled for today. Today the market is waiting for the following events from the USA: publication of Initial Jobless Claims in the USA at 14:30 (GMT+2) with a positive outlook, statement by FOMC member John Williams at 15:30 (GMT+2), and a meeting between between the US President Donald Trump and the PRC Chairman Xi Jinping scheduled for 17:00 (GMT+2). This is the first meeting between Trump and Chinese authorities that is likely to shape the policy of relations between two major world economies for the next several years. The expectations about this event are ambiguous, but its results will certainly influence the dynamics of instruments.  

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.2510, 1.2570, 1.2700, 1.2770.
Support levels: 1.2430, 1.2340, 1.2250, 1.2200.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 1.2340, 1.2250 and stop-loss at 1.2530.
Alternatively, one may consider opening buy positions from the level of 1.2430 with targets at 1.2510 and stop-loss at 1.2380.

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[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: revision of the ECB policy is not required at this stage_06/04/2017

Current dynamics
ECB President Mario Draghi said today that "the recovery of the Eurozone economy has intensified, it has become more homogeneous", however, "it is too early to declare success". Draghi also added that "there are no reasons to refuse current benchmarks regarding interest rates", "the revision of the ECB policy at this stage is not required."
In response to a statement by Mario Draghi, the euro fell sharply in the foreign exchange market. The pair EUR / USD lost about 50 points in the moment, however, by the closing of the hour it was able to recover by half.
After yesterday's publication of the minutes from the last meeting of the FOMC, which caused a violent reaction in the foreign exchange market, today there is a mixed dynamics. However, the dollar remains the favorite. The Fed, as follows from the protocol, intends to reduce its balance, amounting to 4.5 trillion dollars. The portfolio of the Federal Reserve consists of treasury bonds and mortgage securities. Reducing the balance of the Fed means selling government bonds, which will increase their profitability. Even if the Fed does not increase the rate, the Fed's portfolio reduction will cause the dollar to strengthen as the yield of US government bonds rises.
Yesterday, a report from ADP was published that showed that the number of jobs in the private sector increased by 263,000 in March (the forecast was + 180,000 jobs). This suggests that the rate of hiring in the private sector in the US remained high in March, and the labor market in the US is in good shape.
The presented data are extremely important, since, in some way, they can signal that on Friday a strong official report from the US Department of Labor on the state of the labor market in the country will be presented. According to the forecast, an increase in the number of new places created in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy (NFP) by 180,000 is expected (after an increase of 235,000 in February); unemployment should remain at 4.7%.
The monthly increase in new jobs by more than 150,000 points confirms a stable labor market in the US. The state of the labor market, the pace and level of inflation, GDP growth are the main factors for the Fed in determining the need for tightening monetary policy in the US. If the forecast for NFP (+180 000 new jobs) is justified, then expectations of an early increase in the interest rate in the US will increase. This is a positive factor for the dollar. Conversely, a weak report on the labor market will cause a sharp weakening of the dollar. Recently, the situation is that when the weak macro data comes out, the dollar reacts much more strongly than when positive data are released. It is possible that this will happen this time too.

Key levels
After a sharp weakening at the end of last month, the pair EUR / USD is holding in the range between levels 1.0690, 1.0630. In view of the importance of the events of the current week in determining the future dynamics of the dollar, investors occupied, in the main, a wait-and-see attitude.
The pair broke through the important levels of support 1.0765 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.0690 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). On the daily chart, the pair EUR / USD moves to the bottom line of the uplink, passing near the level of 1.0550 (November lows).
If the pair EUR / USD returns to the zone above the levels of 1.0690, 1.0700 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), then the scenario to decline to the level of 1.0550 will be canceled, and the pair may continue to rise to the levels of 1.0765 (EMA144), 1.0820 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily and weekly charts were deployed to short positions.
Meanwhile, the negative dynamics of the EUR / USD pair is prevailing.
Support levels: 1.0600, 1.0550, 1.0500, 1.0485
Resistance levels: 1.0690, 1.0700, 1.0765, 1.0820, 1.0865, 1.0905

Trading tips
Sell Stop 1.0625. Stop-Loss 1.0685. Objectives 1.0600, 1.0550, 1.0500, 1.0485
Buy Stop 1.0685. Stop-Loss 1.0625. The objectives are 1.0700, 1.0725, 1.0755, 1.0770, 1.0820, 1.0865, and 1.0905


 

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: general review

Current trend

The fall of the Australian dollar that started last week was caused by important Australian economic indicators such as Manufacturing PMI and retail sales volume that appeared to be worse than forecast. On the other hand, the policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia aimed at the moderation of AUD strengthening was confirmed by the Tuesday decision to keep the 1.5% interest rate unchanged. Australian trading balance released on the same day appeared to be with proficiency and above outlooks which is a result of weakening of the natonal currency. Last month the national trading balance demonstrated deficiency caused by the strengthening of AUD for almost two months.

A speech by deputy head of the Reserve Bank of Australia Guy Debelle was also published yesterday. The main focus of the statement was on the reduction of the volume of foreign invesments in the industrial and national debt sectors. As a result, the pair AUD/USD continued to fall and reached the zone of 0.7530-0.7550.
No important releases from Australia are due today. Speaking about the USA, the market is waiting for the usual labour market release published in the first Friday of the month, namely on the changes in nonfarm payrolls at 14:30 (GMT+2) with negative outlook, as well as for the weekly report by Baker Hughes on active oil platforms in the USA at 20:00 (GMT+2) with positive forecast. Moreover for the last two days investors have been paying attention to the results of the meeting between the US President Donald Trump and the PRC Chairman Xi Jinping.  

Support and resistance

The correction of the pair is the most likely scenario for today.  
Support levels: 0.7490, 0.7420, 0.7310.  
Resistance levels: 0.7540, 0.7600, 0.7660, 0.7740.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with target at 0.7600 and stop-loss at 0.7470.
Alternatively, short positions may be opened from the level of 0.7540 with targets at 0.7420 and stop-loss at 0.7640.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/


 

[LiteForexTeam]

DAX: Fibonacci analysis

On H4 chart the price is at the level of aggregation of Fibonacci corrections (38.2% and 23.6%) and is testing the middle line of Bollinger Bands at the level of 12195.5. If it is broken down, the growth may continue to the marks of 12258.0 (correction 23.6%) and 12360.0 (year maximums). To continue the fall the pair has to break through the aggregation of corrections at the level of 12172.0 and lower Boillinger Band. In this case the fall may continue to the aggregation of corrections (61.8% and 38.2%) 12040.5 and 11975.0 (correction 76.4%).

On D1 chart the price is being corrected from year maximums but fails to break down through the middle line of Bollinger Bands at 12130.0. If the price consolidates below it, it may continue the decrease to the level of 11820.0 (correction 23,6%). Otherwise the price may reverse and update year maximums at 12314.0. Generally, growth seems possible in the short terms, as Stochastic is turned upwards.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened from 12195.5 with targets at 12258.0, 12360.0 and stop-loss at 12159.0.

Alternative scenario

Sell positions may be opened from the level of 12115.0 with targets at 12040.5, 11975.0 and stop-loss at 12143.0.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/


 

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: general review

Current trend

Gold quotes are traditionally moving upwards along with the growing of geopolitical tension in the world. After the news that the USA plan a tough response to the actions of North Korea, the prices of the metal grew by 1.49% on Tuesday. Today gold tested the resistance level of 1279.68 (a maximum since 10.11.2016) after which correction followed. Due to the absence of important macroeconomic releases today and the aggravation of the geopolitical situation the scenario of further correction development seems likely.
Support and resistance
Technical indicators show the preservation of the growth potential, not excluding the scenario of short-term correction.

Bollinger Bands are directed upwards indicating the preservation of buy activity. However the price broke through the upper line which is a sign of rate correction. The level of 1261.15 (corresponding to the middle line of Bollinger Bands) look like the main target of correction.

MACD histogram is located in the positive zone, and its volumes are growing. Breaking through the level of 1260.18 and consolidation above it will be a signal of growth continuation. In this case the growth will continue to the level of 1288.67.
Support levels: 1270.90, 1266.00, 1261.15, 1256.00.
Resistance levels: 1279.68, 1288.67, 1296.18.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened below 1270.90 with targets at 1266.00, 1261.15 and stop-loss at 1273.00.
Buy positions may be opened above 1279.68 with targets at 1288.67 and stop-loss at 1276.60.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

 

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

After the beginning of the Brexit procedure GBP had unusual dynamics. Since the beginning of this week the British currency has been strengthening. Investors were waiting for the publication of important consumer and manufacturer prices indexes that were released yesterday and appeared to be better than outlook. This increased the possibility that the Bank of England will pursue a "hawkish" monetary policy. Yesterday's statement by the Bank of England head Mark Carney did not cover the policy directly but was generally optimistic. After it the pair GBP/USD decreased from the level of 1.2500. However, yesterday's report on the fulfillment of the US federal budget appeared to be much worse than the forecast which weakened USD, and the pair moved upwards, updating its 2-weeks maximums.
Today's only release from the UK will be the report of the Bank of England on lending terms at 10:30 (GMT+2). However, the news is considered secondary. From the USA the market is waiting for initial jobless claims with a negative outlook at 14:30 (GMT+2) and the manufacturers price index at the same time and with the same forecast.

On Friday the Christian world will abstain from trading, and the market activity is likely to be low. Today one may expect the pair to continue consoliating.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.2510, 1.2430, 1.2350, 1.2250.
Resistance levels: 1.2610, 1.2700, 1.2780.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 1.2610, 1.2700 and stop-loss at 1.2500.
Alternatively, sell positions may be opened from the level of 1.2510 with targets at 1.2430 and stop-loss 1.2610.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/


 

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: the reversal from the support levels is possible

Current trend
From the middle of March the JPY is growing against the USD. As the USD, the EUR and GBP are unstable, the investors’ interest towards the JPY is growing. In addition the Japan main economy sectors data are positive, which also supports the JPY. The USA macroeconomic data are controversial, and the restrained position of the USA FRS members upon the further decreasing of the stimulating program presses the USD significantly, so the pair is lowering during the last 5 trading weeks.
Last week the list of the negative USA issues was published, which weakened the USD. The Japan Industrial Production data and the Machine Tool Orders report, published in the same period, were positive.
Today the volatility is not expected to be high due to the absence of the key macroeconomical issues.

Support and resistance
Today the pair continued to lower, and the decrease can continue to the level of 107.30 in the short term, and then the pair will reverse into the upward correction. The Bank of Japan has stated that the high rate of the JPY is not profitable for the Japan economy, so the reversal is possible in the middle term period. The trend can change at the key support level at 107.30, 106.50, 105.50.
The technical indicators reflect the consolidation of the trend, MACD short positions volumes are growing.
Support levels: 108.10, 107.30, 106.50, 105.50, 104.10
Resistance levels: 108.80, 109.15, 109.85, 110.10, 110.50, 111.45, 112.20, 112.90

Trading scenario
It’s better to increase the volume of the short positions in the current trend with the target at 107.30, 106.50, but remember that the trend can change in the nearest future. Stop loss is at 109.30.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/
 

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Yesterday the EUR/USD pair grew due to the slight weakness of the USD. The European markets were closed due to the Easter holidays, which affected the volatility and liquidity in the morning. The EUR began to grow against the USD, when the USA session opened, and the pair reached the level of 1.0670.
The traders wait for the upcoming Elections in France. Despite the fact that one of the major candidates Le Pen, who supports the tight policy, is losing her positions in the opinions pall, the major part of the electorate still didn’t make up its mind. Taking in consideration the election experience in the other countries, the objectivity of the opinion polls is doubtful, so the electing of the right wing candidate is still possible. In this scenario the Eurozone will have a hard time, as Le Pen supports the France leaving the EU.
The Presidential Elections in France are due at Sunday.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart the pair is lowering towards the strong resistance level of 1.0700. MACD is below the zero line, but is ready to cross the signal line, its volumes decreasing. Stochastic is in the neutral line, pointed upwards, giving a buy signal.
Support levels: 1.0650, 1.0590, 1.0550.
Resistance levels: 1.0700, 1.0770, 1.0830.

Trading scenario
Buy the pair is the price is set above the level of 1.0700 with the target at 1.0770, stop loss is at 1.0670.
Open short positions below the level of 1.0650 and target at 1.0590 and 1.0550, stop loss is at 1.0680.
Implementation period: 1-2 days.


Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

 

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend
On Tuesday Brent quotes decreased to the level of 55.00. This happened after the statement by Saudi Arabia Minister of Energy Khalid A. Al-Falih that is was early to consider the possibility of extension of OPEC+ agreement. The disappointment of the market was not eliminated even by the weekly report of American Petroleum Institute according to which US oil reserves reduced yet again by 840K barrels. The quotes still remain at the level of 55.00. Today the head of OPEC Mohammed Barkindo tried to calm down the investors by saying that the cartel was optimistic about the situation and that the measures taken by it would lead to the recovery of the market. Another positive factor for the bulls was the statement by the UAE Minister of Energy Suhail Al Mazrouei who pointed out that he was satisfied with the fulfillment of the agreement on the reduction of oil production.
These statement led to the growth of the quotes to 55.40. Upward movement may continue if API data is confirmed by the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy. New weekly reduction of oil reserves may push the quotes to April maximums to the level of 56.60.

Support and resistance
Technically the price is trading within a narrow downward channel. Breaking through its upper border and the middle line of Bollinger Bands at the level of 55.55 may lead to further growth to 56.15 and 56.65. Otherwise the downward movement may resume to the level of 54.10 (correction 38.2%).
Support levels: 55.10, 54.10, 53.35.
Resistance levels: 55.55, 56.15, 56.65.

Trading tips
In the current situation short positions may be opened below 55.10 with targets at 54.10 and stop-loss at 55.30. In case the level of 55.55 is broken out, long positions with targets at 56.15, 56.60 and stop-loss at  55.15 will be relevant.

 

[LiteForexTeam]

WTI Crude Oil: technical analysis

WTI Crude Oil, D1
On D1 chart the instrument dropped down and corrected to the middle line of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in positive zone with its volume at the minimum, the signal line is crossing the zero line and the body of the histogram from below, which is a signal to open long positions. Stochastic signal line is in the neutral zone and is directed downwards. If the signal line crosses the border between the neutral zone and the oversold zone will indicate possible reversal of the price.
WTI Crude Oil, H4
On H4 chart the instrument reached the lower border of Bollinger Bands and slowed down its fall. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, the signal line is crossing the zero line and the body of the histogram from above, which is a signal to open short positions. Stochastic is in neutral zone, moving along the border with the oversold zone and not giving any clear signal.

Key levels
Support levels: 51.00, 50.50, 50.00, 49.30, 48.00, 47.15.
Resistance levels: 51.70, 52.50, 53.00, 53.50, 54.10, 54.50, 55.00.

Trading tips
In view of technical indicators, opening short positions from the current price with targets at 50.50, 50.00 seems preferable. Stop-loss should be placed on the level of 51.80. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.
Buy positions may be opened at the level of 52.00 with targets at 52.50, 53.00 and stop-loss at 51.70. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.


 

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: general review

Current trend
The growth of GBP/USD slowed down today in view of publication of retail sales data from the UK. The indicator appeared to be less than forecast and reduced by 1.8% in monthly terms. On YoY basis it increased oinly by 1.7% against the expected growth by 3.4%. However, after significant growth in the beginning of the week the pound remains quite confident against US dollar and keeps trying to consolidate above 1.2850. The key support level is 1.2700. After breaking through it the "bulls" are likely to take a break which may lead to a correction to the level of 1.2400 in the medium term.
Today traders should pay attention to news from the USA namely changes in Markit Manufacturing PMI as well as compound Markit PMI.

Support and resistance
On D1 chart the price corrected to the upper border of Bollinger Band and slowed growth. MACD histogram is in the positive area and keeps the signal for the opening of long positions.
Support levels: 1.2780, 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2500.
Resistance levels: 1.2850, 1.2900.

Trading tips
Long positions may be opened from the current level with target at 1.2900 and stop-loss at 1.2760.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 1.2690 with target at 1.2600 and stop-loss at 1.2720.
The period of implementation is 1-3 days.

 

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Last week the pair was traded controversial. In the beginning of the week the AUD was lowering due to the RBA meeting minutes, which confirmed the “dovish” policy and kept the interest rate on the minimum level. On Thursday and Friday the USD was lowering after the publication of the negative employment market and building data.
Yesterday the USD continued to fall due to the negative secondary business activity data. Despite the fact that the AUD/USD trading day closed in the red zone the whole dynamics is positive. The pair strongly consolidated above the level of 0.7500.
Today is ANZAC Day in Australia, so the banks don’t work and there is no news and publications, so the traders should pay attention to the USA Consumer Confidence publication (expected to be negative) and the New Home Sales data (expected to be negative, too).
On Wednesday the Australian Consumer Price Index is worth traders’ attention (expected to be positive). If it meets the expectations and the corresponding RBA decisions follows, the AUD will strengthen in the nearest future.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 0.7490, 0.7440, 0.7380, 0.7310.
Resistance levels: 0.7615, 0.7570, 0.7680, 0.7750.

Trading scenario
Open long positions at the current price with the target at 0.7615, 0.7680, stop loss is at 0.7480.
Open short positions at the level of 0.7490 with the target at 0.7440, 0.7380, stop loss is at 0.7530.
Implementation period: 2-3 days.


 

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend
The consolidation of the pair after the rapid growth on last Tuesday reflects the investors’ uncertainty in the further dynamics, as they are waiting for clearer signals. Yesterday in the first half of the day US dollar was strengthening, but the pair managed to keep its positions. Tonight's growth attempts of USD were also followed by the strengthening of GBP/USD which indicates slim chanses of the pair's quick return to monthly or even 2-weeks minimums. On Friday the UK GDP key data (expected to be positive) and the YoY USA GDP data (expected to be negative) are worth traders’ attention.
Today there is no significant news from the UK, and the Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation data (expected to be negative) and the Pending Home Sales data (expected to be negative) are to be published today in the USA.
The consolidation of the pair until Friday is expected.

Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 1.3035, 1.3200.
Support levels: 1.2700, 1.2780, 1.2865.

Trading scenario
Open short positions at the current price with the targets at 1.2780, 1.2700, stop loss is at 1.2930.
Buy the pair at the level of 1.2930 with the target at 1.3035 and stop loss at 1.2890.