MikhailLF Posted May 13, 2020 Share Posted May 13, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR shows flat dynamics against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating after a surge of "bullish" sentiment when investors were selling USD amid the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from the US. The Consumer Price Index excluding Food and Energy in April fell by 0.4% MoM after a decrease of 0.1% MoM in March. Experts expected a decline of 0.2%. In annual terms, the index fell from 2.1% YoY to 1.4% YoY, which also turned out to be noticeably worse than the forecasts of 1.7% YoY. In turn, the attractiveness of USD increased slightly after a speech by Fed officials who agreed that the regulator is unlikely to resort to negative interest rates. In addition, support for USD was provided by new alarming statistics on the incidence of coronavirus in those countries that have eased restrictions. GBP/USD GBP slightly strengthened against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from local lows since April 21. GBP remains under pressure amid the uncertain prospects of trade negotiations between the UK and the EU, which are obviously complicated by the erupted economic crisis. The period during which the UK can agree with the EU to postpone the transitional deadline after Brexit, expires in June. Nevertheless, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly stated that he is against the postponement. It is possible that the current economic crisis could affect this decision, but the market does not have any additional information yet. Today, investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from the UK on the dynamics of industrial production and GDP for March. AUD/USD AUD is stable against USD today, trading near the opening level of yesterday's afternoon session. Macroeconomic statistics from Australia turned out to be neutral and failed to have a significant impact on the dynamics of the instrument. Westpac Consumer Sentiment in May grew by 16.4% after falling by 17.7% in the previous month. Wage Price Index in Q1 2020 increased by 0.5% QoQ and 2.1% YoY, which fully coincided with the expectations of investors. In turn, the instrument was pressured by news about China’s ban on the import of Australian meat after Australia’s calls to investigate the origin of COVID-19. USD/JPY USD is trading near zero against JPY during today's Asian session, consolidating after falling the day before when USD retreated from its three-week highs. The reason for the surge in "bearish" sentiment was the publication of disappointing macroeconomic data from the US on the dynamics of consumer inflation in April. Today, investors are focused on the Japanese macroeconomic statistics, which was quite optimistic. Bank Lending in April increased by 3% YoY after growth by 2% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth by 2.1% YoY only. The Eco Watchers Survey on Current Situation in April fell from 14.2 to 7.9 points, which also turned out to be better than market forecasts about a decrease to 4.2 points. XAU/USD Gold prices show flat dynamics during today's Asian session, developing the usual picture of ambiguous trading in the short/medium term. Support for the instrument was provided by new spikes in the incidence of coronavirus in those countries that decided to ease quarantine restrictions. Rumors about the possible second wave of the epidemic immediately spread to the market, but so far the current figures do not allow clear conclusions. More confident growth of gold was hindered by the results of speeches by the Fed representatives, who almost unanimously expressed their opinion regarding the inappropriateness of introducing negative interest rates in the United States. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted May 14, 2020 Share Posted May 14, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is slightly falling, continuing to develop the “bearish” impulse formed yesterday. The negative dynamics was due to another wave of USD strengthening in response to the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech, which contributed to the growth of negative sentiment in the market. Powell spoke rather sharply about the prospects for the recovery of the US economy, noting that it would be "a long period of poor growth and a widespread drop in income." Also, the official directly appealed to Congress to take additional stimulation measures. Wednesday’s macroeconomic statistics faded into the background. The dynamics of industrial production in the EU in March decreased by 11.3% MoM, which was slightly better than market expectations of –12.1 MoM. Also, the production fell by 12.9% YoY, exceeding the forecast of –12.4% YoY. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair maintains a moderate downward trend, renewing local lows of April 7. Now the instrument is trying to consolidate below 1.2200. Investors are focused on a large block of UK macroeconomic statistics, released on Wednesday. Many indicators were better than their extremely negative forecasts but it did not contribute to the growth of interest in the British currency. So, UK GDP for March fell by 5.8% MoM after a weakening of 0.2% MoM for February. Analysts had expected a much more significant drop – by 8% MoM. The British economy lost 2% QoQ with a forecast of –2.5% QoQ. Industrial production for March accelerated its decline from –0.1% MoM to –4.2% MoM with a forecast of a decrease of 5.6% MoM. The indicator fell by 8.2% YoY, while the market expected a decline of 9.3% YoY. NZD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair shows ambiguous dynamics. The instrument is trying to correct after an active decline yesterday when the New Zealand dollar was under pressure from the publication of the RBNZ protocols. As expected, the regulator kept the interest rate at the previous level of 0.25% but also reported a sharp increase in the volume of the quantitative easing program from 33B to 60B NZD. Also, the published protocols reflected the bank’s strong commitment to decrease interest rates to negative values if the situation requires. On Thursday, New Zealand will begin the process of phasing out the previously introduced quarantine restrictions, which should positively affect the dynamics of the labor market and industrial production. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is moderately declining, developing a “bearish” trend, which replaced the growth of Tuesday. Despite the fairly strong position of the American currency in the market, the yen looks quite promising in the current struggle for the title of shelter asset, which is partly due to the publication of disappointing US macroeconomic statistics and a speech by the head of the Fed Jerome Powell. On Thursday, investors are focused on the release of US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of May 8. Analysts expect growth of about 2.5 million, which is slightly lower than the 3.17 million recorded over the past period. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are falling, testing the level of 1700 for a breakdown. At the same time, the instrument is near its weekly highs, which it keeps due to the growth of negative sentiment in the market. Yesterday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell intensified investor concerns regarding the prospects for a recovery in the US economy, although Powell rejected the idea of introducing negative interest rates again. Instead, the chairman of the regulator called on the US Congress to increase the volume of economic assistance packages, which currently reaches $3B. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Brent Crude Oil: oil continues to grow Current trend Oil prices continue to rise steadily and are staying around $30 per barrel. Yesterday, the international energy agency published a monthly report that said that demand for energy was balanced due to the lifting of restrictive measures in several countries and the new OPEC+ deal, which began to operate last week. According to statistics, the drop in demand fell from 9.3 million to 8.6 million barrels per day. The second positive factor for the instrument was the data on reserves of “black gold” from the EIA agency, according to which crude oil reserves amounted to –0.745 million instead of the forecast of 4.147 million, which is much better than 4.590 million a week earlier. The market took this data positively, although according to API data, inventories increased to 7.580 million against the forecast of 5,000 million. Support and resistance The price continues to rise steadily and almost reaches the initial correction level 23.6% Fibonacci. Its breakout will mean the beginning of full correction. Yesterday, the Alligator indicator issued a buy signal, indicating the upward intersection of the signal EMA with two fast ones. Earlier, the histogram of the AO oscillator has already crossed the zero line, giving a buy signal. Resistance levels: 31.50, 39.20. Support levels: 27.70, 20.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR shows a slight increase against USD during today's Asian session, trying to develop the uncertain "bullish" momentum that formed on the market at the end of last week. Last Friday's trading took place against the background of the publication of a large number of interesting macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone and the USA. The focus of European investors was on the GDP dynamics of the eurozone and Germany in Q1 2020. As expected, Germany's GDP fell by 2.2% QoQ after falling by 0.1% QoQ over the previous period. In annual terms, German GDP fell by 2.3% YoY with a forecast of reduction of only 2% YoY. Eurozone GDP for the same period decreased by 3.8% QoQ and 3.2% YoY, which justified forecasts. Employment Change in the eurozone in Q1 2020 decreased by 0.2% QoQ, which unexpectedly turned out to be better than market expectations of –0.4% QoQ. GBP/USD GBP shows uncertain correctional dynamics against USD during today's morning session, trading near local lows since March 26. Following the results of the past week, GBP showed a steady decline, and the strongest weakening of its positions fell on Friday, amid the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the USA. Investors were disappointed by US data on the dynamics of retail sales. In April, the indicator decreased by 16.4% MoM after a decrease of 8.3% MoM in March. Analysts expected negative dynamics at the level of –12% MoM. Retail Sales excluding Autos for the same period fell by 17.2% MoM after a decrease of 4% MoM last month. The real dynamics again turned out to be significantly worse than the forecasts of –8.6% MoM. At the same time, the consumer sentiment on USD was supported by unexpectedly strong data on the level of consumer sentiment. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 71.8 to 73.7 points in May, with a forecast of a decrease to 68 points. NZD/USD NZD is slightly strengthening against USD during today's Asian session, trying to correct after an active decline at the end of last trading week. The instrument is trying to consolidate above 0.5950, relying mainly on a number of technical factors. NZD remains under pressure against the background of a noticeable increase in trade tension between the United States and China. Donald Trump accuses China of insufficient information regarding the risks of coronavirus, threatening to sever all ties with official Beijing. At the end of last week, it became known that the US administration is considering introducing new restrictions on the export of US technology to China. In particular, the Chinese Huawei corporation, which had previously noticeably suffered from sanctions, could again be under a serious blow. China responded by warning that it would take the necessary protective measures and called on the US for constructive dialogue and cooperation. USD/JPY USD is stable against JPY during today's Asian session and continues to develop flat dynamics in the short term. Amid the worsening prospects for the global economic recovery after the coronavirus, demand for safe assets remains stably high, not allowing any currency in the USD/JPY pair to take the lead. Macroeconomic statistics from the USA published at the end of the last trading week turned out to be contradictory; however, it only increased investor concerns about the timing of the economy’s return to the previous track. In turn, the Japanese data, released on Monday, gave investors hope. Annual statistics on the dynamics of Japan's GDP for Q1 2020 reflected a decrease of 3.4% YoY after a decrease of 7.3% YoY in the previous period. Analysts had expected the economy to fall by 4.6% YoY. On a quarterly basis, GDP fell by 0.9% QoQ, which also turned out to be better than market expectations of –1.2% QoQ. XAU/USD Gold prices show strong growth during today's Asian session, updating record highs since October 2012. The instrument is supported by the growth of trade tension between the USA and China, which is added to the already familiar fears regarding the prospects of the global economic recovery after the coronavirus. Macroeconomic statistics from the United States published last Friday could not significantly improve investor sentiment, although it should be noted that the market was optimistic about the growth of consumer confidence indices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is stable and is trading near local highs of early May, renewed yesterday. On Monday, EUR was growing steadily, as investors got rid of long USD positions amid the development of a new crisis in Washington and Beijing relations. They began to escalate after US President Donald Trump repeatedly accused China of hiding information about the threat of coronavirus. Last weekend, White House adviser Peter Navarro sharply criticized the PRC and reproached the government for not restricting the movement of its citizens outside the country in time, which contributed to the rapid spread of the epidemic in the world. On Tuesday, European investors are focused on the publication of data from the ZEW Research Institute on business sentiment in Germany and the EU, as well as on the meeting of the Council of Ministers of Finance and the EU Economy. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is growing within the correction, retreating from the lows of March 26, renewed against the backdrop of a steady decline in the instrument throughout the past week. Yesterday's positive dynamics was due to technical factors of the correction of the American currency, while the pound remained under pressure against the backdrop of deterioration in the prospects for the British economy. Investors sharply negatively reacted to the statement of the Bank of England representative Andrew Haldane, who noted that the regulator is considering the idea of introducing negative interest rates. Earlier, the head of the Central Bank, Mark Carney, officially rejected such an idea. On Tuesday, investors expect the publication of March information on the dynamics of the UK labor market over the past 3 months. AUD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair shows ambiguous dynamics, trading near the opening level at 0.6523. The instrument keeps a “bullish” momentum generated yesterday due to the strengthening of correctional sentiment in the US currency but there are no new growth drivers yet. The published protocol of the RBA meeting did not help clarify the situation on the market, and investors fear the most decisive actions from all the world's leading regulators. However, optimism is present on the market due to the gradual abolition of restrictive measures that give hope for the restoration of industrial activity in all regions. In China, despite the aggravation of trade relations with the USA, industrial activity is growing, which leads to the growth of the import of the raw materials. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is growing moderately, keeping the flat nature of trading in the short term. Despite the rather poor position of the US currency, investors are actively selling the yen amid the publication of disappointing macroeconomic data from Japan, which indicates the plunge of the economy into recession for the first time since 2015. According to today's publications, industrial production in March fell by 3.7% MoM and 5.2% YoY, which coincided with market expectations. The percentage of capacity utilization for the same period fell by 3.6%, while analysts expected a slighter decrease, by 0.2%. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are rising moderately, consolidating after a sharp decline yesterday, which replaced the increase, due to which gold has renewed its record highs since October 2012. The instrument is still supported by rumors about possible negative interest rates by the Fed. However, while the American regulator does not confirm this information and officially considers such measures less effective than what it currently has. US housing market data for April will be released on Tuesday. Also, during the day, the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell will speak in Congress. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted May 20, 2020 Share Posted May 20, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR shows moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, continuing to develop an upward momentum, which led to the renewal of local highs from May 4. The instrument adds about 0.19% and is actively testing the level of 1.0940 for a breakout. The euro is supported by the announced plan to support the European economy. Germany and France have reached a consensus on the formation of a fund for economic recovery in the amount of EUR 500B. The countries most affected by the crisis will be able to receive grants from this fund, while the debt burden will equally fall on all countries of the block, since the fund will be filled through the EU budget. Additional support for EUR was provided by data from the ZEW Institute. ZEW Economic Sentiment in Germany in May rose significantly from 28.2 to 51 points, which was significantly better than market expectations of 32 points. GBP/USD GBP shows the flat dynamics of trading during today's Asian session, maintaining a "bullish" sentiment from the beginning of the current week. GBP is supported by rather optimistic market sentiment regarding the gradual completion of the period of restrictive measures, which contributes to increased demand for risk. More confident growth of GBP is hindered by extremely poor macroeconomic statistics from the UK, published on Tuesday. In April, Claimant Count Change jumped from 12.1K to 856.5K, while analysts had expected growth to 150–200K. Average Earnings Including Bonus slowed down from 2.8% 3MoY to 2.4% 3MoY, which also turned out to be worse than market expectations of 2.7% 3MoY. In March, ILO Unemployment Rate fell from 4% to 3.9% 3M, which turned out to be better than market forecasts suggesting an increase to 4.4%. Today, British investors are focused on the statistics on Retail Price Index and consumer inflation for April. NZD/USD NZD is showing steady growth against USD during today's Asian session, trading near local highs, updated the day before. The instrument adds about 0.50% and is trying to consolidate above 0.6100. The gradual lifting of quarantine restrictions around the world has a positive effect on the dynamics of NZD, which is counting on the restoration of world trade. In particular, the most notable recent support is provided by news from China, which, however, is overshadowed by rising trade tensions between Beijing and Washington. The macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand published recently was contradictory. Producer Price Index Out in Q1 2020 showed a slowdown from +0.4% QoQ to +0.1% QoQ despite the expected growth to +0.7% QoQ. Producer Price Index Input for the same period decreased by 0.3% QoQ after growth by the same amount a month ago. USD/JPY USD is stable against JPY during today's morning session, trading near the local highs since April 13, updated the day before. JPY is losing to USD in the battle for the title of safest asset in recent days amid the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics, which indicates the onset of a recession in the Japanese economy. However, American statistics can hardly be called more optimistic. During today's Asian session, Japan managed to somewhat surprise investors with its releases. Machinery Orders in March fell by 0.4% MoM after an increase of 2.3% MoM. Analysts expected a much more significant drop in volumes by 7.1% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator even reduced its decline from –2.4% YoY to –0.7% YoY with a negative forecast of –9.5% YoY. XAU/USD Gold prices show a slight increase during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bullish" trend, which received a new impetus for development on Tuesday. Demand for the asset is supported against the backdrop of continuing uncertainty around the prospects for recovery in the global economy. In addition, the instrument is supported by a rather weak USD against the background of discussing the expansion of economy support program in the US Senate. However, investors are optimistic about the gradual lifting of restrictions, as well as interested in news regarding the development of a vaccine against coronavirus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is correcting, retreating from local highs of May 1, renewed yesterday. The decrease is due to technical factors, as investors are cautious against the background of a high level of uncertainty in the market. Yesterday, published macroeconomic statistics from the EU strengthened the "bearish" sentiment. So, the consumer price index for April slowed down from +0.5% MoM to +0.3% MoM, which coincided with the expectations of traders. In annual terms, the indicator decreased from +0.4% YoY to +0.3% YoY, while it was predicted that the previous value of +0.4% YoY will maintain. At the same time, the May level of consumer confidence slightly increased from –22 to –18.8 points, while forecasts assumed its further decrease to –24 points. On Thursday, investors focused on business statistics from Markit in Germany, France, and the EU in May. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is falling, retreating from the local highs, renewed last Tuesday. Now, the pound is trying to consolidate below 1.2200, waiting for new drivers. On Wednesday, a large number of UK key statistics entered the market. In April, the consumer price index fell by 0.2% MoM, which was below market expectations of –0.1% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator slowed down from +1.5% YoY to +0.8% YoY, also being worse than expected. On Thursday, investors focused on Markit data on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors for May. Analysts expect a moderate increase in indicators, so the instrument can win back part of the morning loss. AUD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is falling within the correction, retreating amid the widespread strengthening of the US currency. Market optimism declined after the media criticized Moderna’s recent press release, saying it had made significant headway in creating a coronavirus vaccine. Australia's macroeconomic statistics released on Thursday was ambiguous. So, the PMI in the manufacturing sector from Commonwealth Bank for May fell from 44.1 to 42.8 points against the forecast of growth to 46.5 points. A similar indicator in the service sector increased from 19.5 to 25.5 points, while the composite index for May rose from 21.7 to 26.4 points. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is strengthening, recovering from the “bearish” trading on Wednesday. Positions of the American currency are growing across the entire spectrum of the market; however, there are still few fundamental reasons for such dynamics. It is worth noting only a slight decrease in optimism about the imminent invention of the vaccine after the report of the biotechnological company Moderna was subjected to extensive criticism in the media. Japanese macroeconomic statistics released on Thursday was ambiguous. Thus, export volumes in April decreased by 21.9% YoY, which was only slightly better than the expected decrease of 22.7% YoY. Imports for the same period fell by 7.2% YoY against expectations of –12.9% YoY. The total trade balance in April reached the level of –930.4B yen, which was significantly lower than the forecast assuming a surplus of 67.4B yen. Jibun Bank's manufacturing PMI fell from 41.9 to 38.4 points. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are falling, retreating after two sessions of slight growth. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by the rising dollar, which again interested investors amid declining optimism in the market. The instrument is positively influenced by the continued expectations of new support measures from the leading Central Banks of the world, as well as the general negative mood of the market regarding the prospects for a quick recovery of the global economy. On Thursday, traders are focused on the publication of Initial Jobless Claims data for the week of May 15. Analysts expect a slight slowdown from the previous value of 2981K to 2400K, which may support the dollar. At the end of the day, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak, which may shed light on new measures to support the US economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR declines against USD during today's Asian session, developing a correctional impulse that formed yesterday, when EUR retreated from its local highs since the beginning of May. In addition to purely technical factors, pressure on the instrument was exerted by Thursday's US macroeconomic statistics, which increased investor interest in safe assets. The number of Initial Jobless Claims in the US for the week ending May 15 increased by 2.438M after an increase of 2.687M in the previous period. Analysts had expected an increase of 2.400M. In turn, the statistics on business activity from Markit in Europe turned out to be very optimistic. Markit PMI Composite in May rose sharply from 13.6 to 30.5 points, which was significantly better than market expectations of 24 points. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of the ECB meeting on monetary policy, as well as the speech by the representative of the European regulator Philip Lane. GBP/USD GBP maintains a weak downtrend against USD during today's morning session, maintaining a flat trend in the short term. The instrument is testing the level of 1.2200 for a breakdown. GBP is under pressure from the prospect of introducing negative interest rates by the Bank of England, which has been actively discussed by investors recently. Thursday's macroeconomic statistics from the UK turned out to be ambiguous. Markit Manufacturing PMI in the UK rose from 32.6 to 40.6 points, which turned out to be better than market expectations of 36 points. Markit Services PMI rose from 13.4 to 27.8 points, which also exceeded expectations of 25 points. At the same time, CBI Industrial Trends Survey on Production Orders in May showed a decrease in volumes from –56 points MoM to –62 points MoM, while the forecast assumed a decrease only to –59 points. NZD/USD NZD is showing a slight decline against USD during today's morning session. The instrument is trying to consolidate below 0.6100, under pressure from the correctional sentiment in USD. Additional pressure on NZD is exerted by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand. Retail Sales excluding Autos in Q1 2020 increased by 0.6% QoQ after a decrease of 0.1% QoQ in the previous quarter. The overall Retail Sales for the same period collapsed by 0.7% QoQ after zero dynamics of the previous period. The growth in demand for USD is also facilitated by the fact that relations between the USA and China are aggravating. Donald Trump continues to actively accuse Beijing of spreading the coronavirus pandemic, which significantly reduces the prospects for consensus between the parties in the second round of trade negotiations. USD/JPY USD declines slightly against JPY during today's morning session, while maintaining the flat nature of trading in the short/ultra-short term. On Friday, Japanese investors are focused on the Bank of Japan decision on interest rates, as well as information on the dynamics of consumer inflation in April. As expected, the Japanese regulator kept the key rate at the previous level of –0.1%, noting the presence of significant risks for the economy due to the widespread introduction of restrictive measures. National Consumer Price Index in April slowed down from +0.4% YoY to +0.1% YoY. National CPI excluding Fresh Food for the same period fell by 0.2% YoY after rising by 0.4% YoY in March. Analysts had expected negative dynamics at –0.1% YoY. XAU/USD Gold prices are relatively stable during today's Asian session, consolidating after an active decline yesterday, which was caused by positive dynamics in USD and the growth of optimistic sentiments regarding the global economic recovery. The US data on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors in May added some optimism to the market, although traders were somewhat cautious about the publication of information on the dynamics of Initial Jobless Claims. In turn, demand for gold remains high amid expectations of new measures to support the economy by leading global financial regulators. In addition, the confrontation between the US and China, which threatens to destroy the previously reached trade agreement, adds to the market’s uncertainties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted May 25, 2020 Share Posted May 25, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR shows a slight decrease against USD during today's Asian session, continuing to develop a "bearish" momentum formed at the end of last week, when EUR retreated from its highs since the beginning of the month. Investors are again inclined to buy a "safe" USD amid worsening relationships between the US and China, which threaten to cross out all the progress made earlier in the framework of the signed trade agreement. Last week, the US Senate approved a bill according to which Chinese companies that cannot prove their independence from the government may lose access to US stock exchanges. Investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from Germany today. The finalized data on the dynamics of GDP in Germany for Q1 2020 will be published, as well as statistics on the level of business optimism from the IFO in May. GBP/USD GBP shows the flat dynamics of trading against USD during today's morning session. Low investor activity is due to a bank holiday in the UK and US markets on Monday. At the same time, GBP remains slightly downward, as Friday's macroeconomic publications from the UK turned out to be negative. Retail sales in April decreased by 18.1% MoM and 22.6% YoY, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of –16% MoM and –22.2% YoY. Retail sales excluding fuel for the same period decreased by 15.2% MoM and 18.4% YoY, which also did not meet forecasts. Gfk Consumer Confidence index fell from –33 to –34 points in May. NZD/USD NZD shows a slight increase against USD during today's Asian session, again testing 0.6100 for a breakout. US markets are closed on Monday due to Memorial Day, so NZD is gaining momentum for a minor correction. Meanwhile, it is worth noting that the currencies of the commodity block are still under pressure from a sharp deterioration in relations between the US and China. Donald Trump, who has repeatedly accused official Beijing of hiding information on the coronavirus, has moved to action. Last week, the Senate approved a bill restricting Chinese companies from accessing the US stock market. Next in line is a law that provides for the introduction of new sanctions against China, if the latter introduces a previously announced bill to protect national security in Hong Kong. USD/JPY USD strengthens slightly against JPY during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a flat trend in the short/ultra-short term. Activity on the market on Monday remains low due to markets closed in the USA on the occasion of Memorial Day. Investors continue to analyze statistics on consumer inflation from Japan published last Friday. National Consumer Price Index in April slowed down from +0.4% YoY to +0.1% YoY. National CPI excluding Fresh Food for the same period went to the negative zone amounting to –0.2% YoY after rising by 0.4% YoY in March. The data released today was contradictory. Coincident Index in March fell from 90.5 to 90.2 points. Leading Economic Index for the same period strengthened from 83.8 to 84.7 points. XAU/USD Gold prices are slightly reduced during the morning trading session, offsetting the positive results of last Friday. At the end of last week, the instrument managed to demonstrate a positive trend, as investors again focused on the disappointing prospects for a global economic recovery, especially against the backdrop of a sharp aggravation of relations between the US and China. Additional support for gold is provided by the expectations of new incentive measures from the world's leading financial regulators. Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the regulator is considering providing credit to additional borrowers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is growing moderately, recovering from a decline at the end of the last trading week and yesterday's ambiguous dynamics. Some support for the euro is provided by macroeconomic data released in Germany yesterday, which confirmed investors' hopes for a recovery in economic activity in the region. Thus, the German business optimism index from the IFO for May rose from 74.2 to 79.5 points, which was even better than analysts' forecasts of 78.3 points. The economic expectations index for the same period strengthened from 69.4 to 80.1 points against the forecast of 75 points. Only the indicator for assessing the current situation was worse than expected. The indicator for May fell from 79.4 to 78.9 points, while the market was counting on its growth to 80 points. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is growing, recovering from the predominantly “bearish” dynamics of trading at the end of the last trading week. Demand for the pound is supported by growing optimism about the prospects for global economic recovery, as many countries are gradually lifting the previously imposed restrictions due to the COVID-19 epidemic. Investors also positively assess the idea of creating a European fund, from which the most affected sectors of the bloc’s economy are supposed to be financed. On the other hand, the aggravation of relations between the USA and China, as well as the vague future of trade negotiations between the EU and the United Kingdom does not allow the instrument to form a stable upward trend even in the short term. NZD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair is growing, continuing to develop a poor “bullish” impulse that formed yesterday. Now the instrument has added about 0.45% and is testing the level of 0.6130 for a breakout. NZD grows against a downward correction of USD, which came under pressure after a sharp deterioration in relations between the US and China. Yesterday in Hong Kong, protests against the Chinese intellectual property law flared up again. The US is opposed to the adoption of this law. A day earlier, Washington imposed additional sanctions against 33 Chinese companies, accusing them of violating human rights and freedoms. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is growing, developing a poor uptrend in the short term. Now, the instrument is testing the level of 108.00 for a breakout, adding about 0.19%. Despite the corrective sentiment on the US dollar, it moves quite confident against the Japanese yen. It is partly due to today's publication of poor macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Thus, the activity index in all sectors for March fell by 3.8% MoM after falling by 0.7% MoM for February, although analysts expected zero dynamics. Corporate services prices for April slowed down from +1.6% YoY to +1.0% YoY, which also did not meet investors' forecasts of +1.9% YoY. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are growing slightly, correcting after the “bearish” dynamics on Monday. The instrument is supported by increased geopolitical tensions after the media got information about new protests in Hong Kong. Recently, markets have been actively discussing the US-China confrontation, which began with Washington’s accusations of Beijing hiding true information about the coronavirus. Later, US President Donald Trump turned to more general claims, and as a result, the United States imposed new sanctions against 33 Chinese companies, suspecting them of violating human rights and freedoms in China. Investors fear that the current crisis in relations between the two countries will erase all the progress achieved earlier in the framework of trade negotiations, and will also slow down the global economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR declines against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after yesterday's active growth, which again pushed EUR to the area of 20-day highs. The situation on the market remains ambiguous. On the one hand, optimism about the gradual lifting of quarantine restrictions contributes to the growth of risky currencies; on the other hand, investors are afraid of the second wave of the epidemic, as well as the extremely long and painful process of restoring the world economy to previous levels. Uncertainties are also added to the market by the deterioration of US-China relations, which threatens a new round of trade war. Today, European investors are focused on the speech of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde, who is likely to touch on the prospects for recovery of the European economy and may reveal the regulator’s plans for monetary policy in the near future. GBP/USD GBP is stable against USD during today's morning session, consolidating near the local highs since May 12, updated the day before. GBP is supported by improved prospects in the global economy amid weakening quarantine in many countries, which helps to restore demand for risk. However, further growth of GBP is hindered by uncertain prospects regarding trade negotiations between the UK and the EU. Given the current situation, progress in resolving critical issues could not be achieved; meanwhile, the deadline for extending the Brexit transition period expires already in June, and Boris Johnson’s voiced position on this issue does not change. British investors also fear the possible introduction of negative interest rates, which has been quite actively discussed recently not only by the British regulator. AUD/USD AUD shows ambiguous trading dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating after active growth on Tuesday, which allowed the instrument to update its highs since March 9. The improvement in market sentiment caused by the gradual weakening of quarantine supports the demand for the commodity currencies; however, investors still show increased caution, which is fraught with frequent corrective movements. Macroeconomic statistics from Australia published on Wednesday turned out to be rather optimistic, but still did not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the instrument. Construction Work Done in Australia in Q1 2020 decreased by 1% QoQ after a decrease of 3% QoQ in the previous period. Analysts had expected a decrease of 1.5% QoQ. USD/JPY USD is stable against JPY and again shows the flat dynamics of trading during today's Asian session. The approximate parity of the instrument indicates a still high demand for safe assets and weak trust of traders in investments. At the beginning of the week, Japan lifted the previously introduced state of emergency, but fears of the second wave of the epidemic still persist. In addition, the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda said that the regulator is considering the possibility of changing interest rates, if required by the economic situation in the country. No interesting macroeconomic statistics from Japan is expected on Wednesday, so investors are likely to focus on US data. It is worth paying attention to the publication of Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for May, as well as the release of a monthly economic review from the US Fed, the Beige Book. XAU/USD Gold prices are falling amid a gradual recovery in risk demand due to weakening quarantine. During today's Asian session, asset quotes approached the level of 1700.00, below which the instrument was last traded on May 13. At the same time, geopolitical risks, which intensified with the new trade conflict between the USA and China, still keep gold near record highs. In addition, new support measures from leading global financial regulators, up to the introduction of negative interest rates in some countries, should not be ignored. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted May 28, 2020 Share Posted May 28, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair shows ambiguous trading dynamics, trying to consolidate above the psychological level of 1.1000, where the instrument managed to rise for the first time in three months. The course is supported by the EU proposal to create a restoration fund in the amount of 750B euros, which Germany and France had previously actively called for. It is anticipated that the most affected countries of the bloc will be financed from this fund, which certainly cannot do without additional support, given the current difficult situation. However, there are enough opponents of this idea, so for now there are only general concepts of the fund. On Thursday, investors are focused on the publication of statistics on consumer inflation in Germany, as well as a block of May data on business sentiment in the EU. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is consolidating after yesterday's decline, which was formed under the influence of growing rumors about the Bank of England's negative interest rates. Also, investors are concerned about the lack of progress in the UK-EU negotiations on Brexit. Yesterday, it became known that the British side still opposes the extension of the transaction deadline, which practically leaves no chance for a positive outcome of the negotiations, given the existing differences. The current negotiation deadline expires in December 2020, and if no agreement is reached by this time, the UK may leave the EU without a deal. AUD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is moderately falling, continuing the development of the “bearish” impulse formed yesterday. Now, the instrument has lost about 0.17% and is actively testing the level of 0.6600 for the breakdown. The optimism of the markets regarding the gradual lifting of quarantine restrictions changes to alarming sentiments regarding the prospects for a global economic recovery. Investors are also concerned about the sharp increase in tension in US-China relations, which threatens to nullify the preliminary results achieved in the framework of trade negotiations. Today’s speech by the head of the RBA, Philip Lowe, had virtually no effect on the position of the Australian currency. Lowe's speech was of a generalizing informational character and did not pursue any specific goals. The official only noted that the March support package has the expected effect and helps “it is helping build the necessary bridge to the recovery.” USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the pair USD/JPY is growing moderately, continuing to develop flat dynamics in the short term. The market situation does not change much, so investors are in no hurry to open any positions. US macroeconomic statistics are gradually improving, which moderately supports the dollar. So, yesterday, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond for May rose from –53 to –27 points with a forecast of growth of only –47 points. The mortgage lending index for the week of May 22 from the Mortgage Lending Association (MBA) grew by 2.7% MoM after a decrease of 2.6% MoM during the previous period. On Thursday, US investors expect the publication of the final annual data on the dynamics of US Q1 GDP, as well as statistics on Durable Goods Order. Key data from Japan, April statistics on industrial production and retail sales, will be released on Friday XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are rising moderately, recovering from the “bearish” beginning of the current week. Demand for the instrument is supported by continuing uncertainty in the market, which is pushing investors to buy shelter assets. Also, the price is strengthening amid expectations of new stimulus measures by the leading Central Banks of the world, including the introduction of negative interest rates, which traders have been actively talking about lately. Finally, investors are noticeably concerned about the growing tension between the US and China, which is likely to prevent the parties from continuing negotiations within a trade deal, the first stage of which was signed at the beginning of this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted May 29, 2020 Share Posted May 29, 2020 Brent Crude Oil: oil is trading sideways Current trend For more than a week, oil prices have been trading in an extremely narrow range of 34.20–36.20, and even unexpected data on energy reserves could not make it to leave this channel. First of all, the slowdown was caused by ambiguous data on the reserves of "black gold" from the API and EIA institutes. The weekly reserves, according to API data, were 8.700 million, which is significantly higher than –4.800 million last week. On Wednesday, the EIA published corresponding data, which also reflected a significant increase to 7.928 million against analysts' forecasts of –1.944 million. Only the excess oil reserves in Cushing’s storage decreased, whose dynamics was –3.395 million against the forecasted decrease of –4.261 million. Support and resistance The price continues to form a global upward correction and is consolidating between the levels of the basic and initial Fibonacci corrections. Technical indicators keep the global buy signal: the range of the Alligator indicator’s EMA fluctuations is still wide, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is in the positive zone. Resistance levels: 38.70, 44.70. Support levels: 31.70, 23.90. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 1, 2020 Share Posted June 1, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR is trading up against USD during the morning trading session. EUR continues a fairly confident "bullish" trend, which was formed last week and is being traded near the local highs of last Friday (highs since March 27). Investors buy EUR under their own momentum, expecting a further improvement in the epidemiological situation that will allow the global economy to begin the recovery process. Today, investors are focused on Markit macroeconomic statistics on business activity in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone. Similar data from ISM will be published in the US. GBP/USD GBP is strengthening against USD during today's Asian session, updating local highs since May 11. The instrument is trying to consolidate above 1.2400, receiving support from the correctional sentiment in USD. Additional pressure on USD was exerted by Friday's macroeconomic statistics from the US, as well as a press conference by Donald Trump, which marked the intensification of the US confrontation with China. Chicago PMI in May fell from 35.4 to 32.3 points with a positive outlook on the growth rate to 40 points. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for the same period fell from 73.7 to 72.3 points, which also turned out to be worse than market expectations of 74 points. During his speech, Donald Trump announced the cessation of the WHO funding, once again accusing China of hiding information about the dangers of coronavirus. AUD/USD AUD shows strong growth during today's Asian session, updating highs since February 17. The instrument adds about 1% and is trying to consolidate above 0.6740. The main source of growth for the pair is the correctional sentiment in USD. At the same time, quite optimistic macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China entered the market on Monday. AiG Manufacturing index went up from 35.8 to 41.6 points in May. Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI fell from 44.1 to 44 points over the same period, which also turned out to be significantly better than expectations of decline to 42.8 points. Chinese data showed the steady growth of Caixin Manufacturing PMI. In May, the index consolidated at 50.7 points, rising from the previous 49.4 points (the forecast implied an increase to 49.6 points). USD/JPY USD is going down against JPY during today's Asian session, testing 107.50 for a breakdown. USD is correcting downwards at the beginning of the week across the entire spectrum of the market, reacting to the publication of not-so-confident macroeconomic statistics from the USA last Friday. In addition, the further lifting of quarantine restrictions has a positive effect on the prospects for the restoration of the global economy. At the same time, it is worth noting the extremely unsuccessful report from Japan on the dynamics of industrial production and retail sales for April, which still does not allow JPY to demonstrate more confident growth. Japanese statistics at the beginning of the week was largely neutral. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in May remained at the same level of 38.4 points. At the same time, Capital Spending for Q1 2020 unexpectedly increased by 4.3% QoQ after a decrease of 3.5% QoQ over the past period. Analysts had expected negative dynamics to remain at –4.2% QoQ. XAU/USD Gold prices are rising during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a "bullish" impulse that formed in the middle of the last trading week, when the instrument managed to retreat from its local lows from May 11. The development of the uptrend in gold proceeds against the background of the growth of correctional sentiment in USD, as well as due to a further escalation of tension between the US and China. Last Friday, Donald Trump again made charges against China, which also served as a formal reason for the termination of funding for the WHO. The speech of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who shared his concerns about the second wave of the epidemic, but emphasized the regulator’s readiness for new tests added negative sentiment to the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair shows ambiguous trading dynamics, consolidating near local highs of March 17, renewed yesterday. EU macroeconomic statistics published at the beginning of the week was ambiguous but EUR grew against the background of USD poor positions. Thus, Markit Manufacturing PMI of France for May increased from 40.3 to 40.6 points, which was better than the neutral forecast. The corresponding indicator in Germany fell slightly from 36.8 to 36.6 points. The EU index corrected from 39.5 to 39.4 points. American data on business activity showed growth but could not reach the expected values. The ISM manufacturing sector index rose from 41.5 to 43.1 points with a forecast of an increase to 43.6 points. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair tends to a “bearish” correction, retreating from 1.2500, which was achieved for the first time since the beginning of May. USD purchasing activity gradually recovers amid the publication of positive macroeconomic statistics. Also, market sentiment improved slightly after a press conference by US President Donald Trump last Friday. Despite the same rhetoric and a tendency to blame China, Trump decided not to break the previously signed trade agreement, which gives hope for the continuation of the negotiation process. On Tuesday, investors are focused on the block of macroeconomic statistics from the UK on the Nationwide housing price index for May, as well as on the volume of consumer lending for April. AUD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is growing moderately, renewing the highs of the end of January 2020. Yesterday, the Australian dollar showed the best recent growth due to a decrease in the US currency across the entire spectrum of the market. Additional support for the instrument was provided by data on business activity from Australia and China, which are steadily recovering from the crisis. On Tuesday, strong statistics support AUD, too, but buying activity declined amid the publication of an RBA decision on the interest rate. However, the market did not expect any surprises, because earlier, the head of the regulator noted that the current monetary policy is fully consistent with the current economic situation in the country and in the world. As predicted, the RBA kept the interest rate at 0.25%. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is growing slightly, continuing the solid flat trend formed in the short term. Yesterday, JPY was supported by the publication of positive macroeconomic data from Japan; however, today, purchasing activity in the dollar is gradually recovering. In general, the demand for shelter assets remains high, as the global economic recovery process and the gradual abandonment of restrictive measures in connection with the coronavirus epidemic are overshadowed by a sharp increase in tension between the US and China. Also, an internal political struggle is growing in the United States related to citizens' protests in response to the police murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis and the upcoming presidential election. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are consolidating, trading near local highs of May 21. The instrument is supported by the market tension caused by the growing controversy between the US and China and a marked slowdown in the global economy due to the coronavirus epidemic. Also, investors do not exclude the appearance of new support measures from the leading world securities, up to the introduction of negative rates, which will increase the attractiveness of gold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 3, 2020 Share Posted June 3, 2020 EUR/USD: the pair is actively growing Current trend The EUR/USD pair continues to grow amid positive data from European countries, mostly affected by COVID-19. This week’s EU macroeconomic statistics are considered by investors as extremely positive. Thus, Manufacturing PMI in Germany for May amounted to 36.6 points, which is slightly lower than expectations at 36.8 points. Manufacturing PMI in Spain is at 38.2 points, which is better than the forecast of 38.0 points, while in Italy Manufacturing PMI reached 45.4 points, which is significantly higher than expectations at 37.1 points. Also, the rate of change in the number of unemployed in Spain fell to 26.6K from 282.9K a month earlier. The index showing the ratio of the US dollar to a basket of major currencies continues to fall and is almost reaching the levels of February, trading at 97.300. Support and resistance After breaking the local resistance of the sideways channel, the price is actively growing, which is confirmed by technical indicators. The range of EMA fluctuations of the indicator Alligator continues to expand upward, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is in the positive zone, which indicates a high probability of the continuation of the current trend. Resistance levels: 1.1240, 1.1450. Support levels: 1.1150, 1.0980. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 4, 2020 Share Posted June 4, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is slightly correcting, retreating from 3-month highs, renewed yesterday. The appearance of a “bearish” dynamics is facilitated by technical factors since investors are interested in the closing of the profitable long positions. The macroeconomic background remains the same. European data released on Wednesday were ambiguous. Germany reported an increase in unemployment for May from 5.8% to 6.3%, which was by 0.1% worse than market expectations. The total number of unemployed for June increased by 238K, exceeding forecasts of 200K. At the same time, European statistics pleased investors with a moderate increase in business activity indices, which respond positively to the gradual lifting of quarantine restrictions. Markit Composite PMI in Germany rose from 31.4 to 32.3 points for May, which was better than the neutral forecast. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is falling, retreating from the highs of April 30, renewed on Wednesday, amid the correctional growth of the US currency, which has been actively falling for about two weeks. On Wednesday, USD is moderately supported by American macroeconomic statistics. Thus, ADP Nonfarm Payrolls reflected a decrease of 2.760 million jobs, which was significantly lower than the expected decrease of 9,000 million. At the same time, the data indicated a moderate increase in business activity. ISM Service PMI for May rose from 41.8 to 45.4 points against the forecast of an increase to only 44 points. AUD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair shows ambiguous dynamics, deviating from local highs from the beginning of the year, renewed yesterday. The Australian dollar could not consolidate above the level of 0.7000, however, a certain "bullish" potential remains. Correctional growth of the US currency against almost the entire market led to a decrease in the quotes for the instrument but the demand for shelter assets remains at the same level. Today’s macroeconomic statistics from Australia were slightly better than the forecasts but could not significantly support the instrument. Thus, retail sales for April fell by 17.7% MoM after falling by 17.9% MoM last month. The trade balance for the same period corrected from 10.602B to 8.800B Australian dollars, which was better than market expectations of 7.500B. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is growing moderately, renewing local highs of April 8. Now, the instrument has added about 0.15% and is trying to consolidate above 109.00. The upward trend is due to the correctional growth of the American currency across the entire spectrum of the market after the publication of positive macroeconomic statistics on US employment. Yesterday’s ADP report gives hope that Friday's data on the labor market for May will be more optimistic. Today, USD is additionally supported by disturbing news regarding the coronavirus epidemic in Iran. Yesterday, official Tehran reported a record increase in incidence over the past two months, although more than seven weeks have passed since the weakening of quarantine restrictions. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are growing slightly, consolidating near the level of 1700.00 after an active decline yesterday. The upward dynamics is due to a shift in the focus of investors' attention to new alarming signals about the danger of the second wave of coronavirus. Also, technical factors also played a role since today, many instruments are correcting during the morning trading session. Finally, the market expects the emergence of new stimulus measures by the world Central Banks. On Thursday, the ECB will publish the decision on the interest rate, which is now at the zero level. However, investors are more actively monitoring the creation of a fund for the restoration of the European economy, which will amount to 750B euros. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 Brent Crude Oil: oil prices are growing Current trend The price range is rapidly expanding from above, signaling in favor of the further development of the “bullish” trend in the short term. The instrument is supported by the OPEC+ decision made on Saturday to extend the current agreement to reduce oil production by almost 10M barrels per day until the end of July. The previous agreement called for a reduction in production from July to the end of 2020 by 8M barrels per day. Additional support for quotes is provided by the gradual recovery of the global economy, which provokes a noticeable increase in demand for oil and petroleum products. A report released on Friday by Baker Hughes on the number of active oil platforms reflected another decrease in the number of active rigs in the US from 222 to 206 units. Support and resistance Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show active growth. The price range is expanding; however, it fails to catch the development of "bullish" sentiments. MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic reversed in a horizontal plane near the level of “100”, which signals the risks of an overbought instrument in the ultra-short term. Existing long positions should be kept in the short and/or ultra-short term until the signals from technical indicators clear up. Resistance levels: 43.05, 45.00, 46.49. Support levels: 41.50, 40.00, 38.50, 36.59. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 WTI Crude Oil: oil is traded lower Current trend WTI crude oil prices are corrected downwards after an increase the day before caused by OPEC+ decision to extend production quotas. The current quotas for the reduction of oil production at the level of 9.7M barrels per day were extended until the end of July. OPEC+ participants felt that ongoing measures are yielding the expected results and that this agreement should be continued. However, Saudi Arabia said that the state-owned company Saudi Aramco, starting in July, will raise prices for all brands of oil for most regions of the world. The largest increase is expected for Asia, where prices may rise by 5.6-7.3 dollars per barrel. This way, Saudi Arabia partially compensates for the March price decline. Support and resistance The asset continues global correctional growth and last week the price overcame the Fibonacci retracement level of 50.0%. Despite the fact that the global trend indicator Alligator retains an active buy signal, the probability of a downward correction is quite high. This is indicated by the readings of the AO oscillator, on which a descending bar has formed. Resistance levels: 42.40, 64.00. Support levels: 35.60, 28.80. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is significantly falling, retreating from the three-month highs, renewed yesterday. Now, the instrument has lost about 0.36% and is actively testing the level of 1.1330 for a breakdown. The weakening of the euro is largely due to technical factors. The two-day meeting of the Fed, which ended on Wednesday, helped to partially relieve tension in the market, and now investors are actively closing long profitable positions. Meanwhile, the published protocols practically did not contain anything new. The regulator complained about the significant negative consequences of the coronavirus and said that it expects the US economy to decline by 6.5% this year. The unemployment rate for the year will exceed 9%. The Fed is currently refusing the idea of negative interest rates. It is assumed that rates will remain at near-zero levels at least until the beginning of 2023. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is steadily declining, correcting after ten upward trading sessions, which allowed the pound to renew its local maximums of March 12. The reason for the weakening of the instrument was the correctional growth of the US dollar, which was released from pressure for some time. Published yesterday, the minutes of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve did not bring any surprises, and the negative forecasts of the US regulator regarding the pace of the slowdown in the US economy contributed to an increase in demand for shelter assets. Today, traders are focused on a block of US data on the dynamics of industrial inflation. Also, on Thursday, Initial and Continuous Jobless Claims will be released. It is expected that the number of initial applications for the week of June 5 will decrease from the previous 1.877 million to 1.550 million. AUD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is falling, correcting from the local maximums of July 2019. The instrument falls amid large-scale growth of the American currency along the whole market after the publication of the minutes of the two-day Fed meeting. As expected, the US regulator did not change the parameters of monetary policy but disappointed the markets with extremely negative forecasts for the US economy for the current year. The Fed expects that US GDP will decline by 6.5% in 2020, while the current economic crisis will affect almost all areas of the economy. The forecast will be relevant if the second wave of the epidemic does not happen, which cannot be ruled out. On Thursday, Australian data negatively affected the instrument. The indicator of expectations for consumer price inflation in June fell from 3.4% to 3.3%, while the forecast assumed its growth to 4.2%. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair reversed upwards due to a surge in investor interest in safe assets. Also, the instrument was affected by the technical factors as the dollar was heavily oversold against many currencies on the market. Wednesday’s US macroeconomic statistics were negative. Thus, the consumer price index for May slowed down from +0.3% YoY to +0.1% YoY, which was worse than market expectations of +0.2% YoY. CPI excluding food and energy decreased by 0.1% MoM for the same period, slightly improving from the previous decline of 0.4% MoM, and slowed down from +1.4% YoY to +1.2% YoY with a forecast of +1.3% YoY. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are falling, retreating from local highs of June 2, which the instrument renewed due to a confident “bullish” rally at the beginning of the trading week. In the first half of the week, experts linked the growth of the precious metal with new support measures from the Fed; however, the published protocols disappointed the market. The regulator only promised to continue buying up bonds but no long-term plan to support the economy was presented. As for the rates, they remained unchanged at the level of 0.25%, and the Fed predicts their preservation at current values at least until the beginning of 2023. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 12, 2020 Share Posted June 12, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR shows the flat dynamics of trading against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating near 1.1300, which was achieved due to the active decline of the instrument the day before. Market sentiment worsened again after the publication of the two-day Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday. Despite the fact that the regulator left the interest rate unchanged at 0.25% and did not announce new radical measures to support the economy, the demand for safe assets has grown markedly. This was partly due to the release of updated forecasts from the Fed, which did not bode well for the US economy. An additional pressure on risky currencies is exerted by alarming reports of an increase in the incidence of coronavirus in various countries. Investors fear that a second wave of the epidemic may begin closer to the autumn, and the economy will have to close again. GBP/USD GBP is slightly declining against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a "bearish" momentum formed the day before. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by the widespread strengthening of USD, as well as a markedly reduced interest of investors in risk. Macroeconomic statistics from the USA published on Thursday turned out to be moderately optimistic. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 5 decreased from 1.897M to 1.542M, which was slightly better than market expectations of 1.550M. Continuing Jobless Claims as of May 29 also showed a downtrend from 21.268M to 20.929M with a forecast of a decrease to 20M. On Friday, investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from the UK on the dynamics of GDP and industrial production for April. UK GDP is expected to fall by a record 18.4% in April. AUD/USD AUD shows ambiguous trading dynamics against USD during today's Asian session. The active decline was replaced by flat trading; the instrument is trading near 0.6850, very close to the opening point. Investors are still actively buying American currency amid a marked decline in optimism in the market. The minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting published on Wednesday helped lower demand for risk, as they again reminded traders of the magnitude of the economic crisis that erupted against the backdrop of the COVID-19 epidemic. Additional pressure on AUD is also exerted by a slowdown in commodity markets, despite the fact that OPEC+ agreed to extend the agreement on limiting oil production until the end of July. USD/JPY USD shows strong growth against JPY during today's Asian session. The US currency is adding about 0.33% and is testing 107.20 for a breakout. The "bullish" dynamics of the instrument replaced the four-day downward rally, following which USD updated local lows since May 11against JPY. In addition to the widespread strengthening of USD, pressure on JPY on Friday was exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. In April, industrial production in the country decreased by 15% YoY after a decrease of 5.2% YoY in March. In monthly terms, production collapsed by 9.8% MoM with a decrease of 3.7% MoM in March. BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index in Q2 2020 decreased from –17.2 to –52.3 points. XAU/USD Gold prices show flat dynamics during today's morning session, consolidating near 1730.00. The day before, the instrument showed negative dynamics, retreating from its local highs since June 2 against the background of widespread strengthening of USD. Additional pressure on gold was exerted by the fact that the US regulator has at the moment abandoned the idea of negative interest rates, and is inclined to take a wait and see attitude, continuing only to increase the program of quantitative easing if necessary. At the same time, the Fed's economic indicators and forecasts indicate a rather difficult situation for the American economy, which supports the demand for gold. In addition, investors are worried about the possibility of a second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic, which could force countries to return some of the restrictions before the vaccine is found. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 15, 2020 Share Posted June 15, 2020 EUR/USD: EUR is corrected Current trend EUR shows moderate growth against USD during today’s Asian session, retreating from local lows updated at the end of last trading week, marked by a two-day decline in EUR quotes. The instrument is testing the level of 1.2560 for a breakout. EUR is supported by technical factors, as well as the publication of good macroeconomic statistics from China, which, however, turned out worse than its forecasts. Industrial Production in China in May showed an increase of 4.4% YoY after an increase of 3.9% YoY in April. Analysts expected an increase of 5% YoY. Retail Sales for the same period decreased by 2.8% YoY after falling by 7.5% YoY in April. Market forecasts suggested a decline of 2% YoY. In general, in the current situation, the position of EUR looks very promising. Experts believe that in the near future, EUR will make an attempt to grow to its March highs at 1.1500. Support and resistance Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD reversed downwards having formed a sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic keeps a confident downtrend but is located near its lows, which indicates the growing risks of oversold EUR in the ultra-short term. Resistance levels: 1.1284, 1.1340, 1.1421, 1.1500. Support levels: 1.1200, 1.1153, 1.1100, 1.1054. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR shows insignificant growth against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bullish" impulse formed yesterday. At the beginning of the week, the positions of EUR look quite stable, given the gradual recovery of the global economy after the COVID-19 epidemic. At the same time, when it comes to individual macroeconomic publications and statements by officials, the picture is not so clear. On Monday, the eurozone reported on the dynamics of the trade balance in April. The indicator fell sharply from a surplus of EUR 25.5B to EUR 1.2B, which was significantly worse than market expectations of EUR 22.9B. European investors today are focused on the statistics on consumer prices in Germany in May. Also, ZEW reports on Economic Sentiment are expected to be released in Germany and the eurozone. GBP/USD GBP shows active growth against USD during today's morning session, updating local highs of June 11. The instrument adds about 0.50% and is testing the level of 1.2670 for a breakout. GBP is supported by the corrective sentiment on USD, while the fundamental factors for the growth of GBP are quite insignificant. Traders are focused on April data on the UK labor market. According to the results of April, the Unemployment Rate remained at 3.9%, and the Average Earnings Including Bonus slowed down from 2.4% 3MoY to 1% 3MoY. In the US, investors expect the release of May statistics on retail sales, as well as a speech by the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress. AUD/USD AUD continues moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, taking advantage of the weakness of USD in the market. Published on Monday, macroeconomic statistics from China supported the instrument, although it did not meet all the expectations of analysts. Industrial Production in May increased by 4.4% YoY, accelerating from the previous value of 3.9% YoY. Experts predicted an increase of 5% YoY. During today's morning session, investors are focused on statistics from Australia, which, however, does not have a significant impact on the instrument. The RBA published the minutes of its June 2 meeting, at which the regulator kept the rate unchanged at 0.25% and noted that the current monetary policy provides the Australian economy with all the necessary support. USD/JPY USD shows uncertain growth against JPY during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a “bullish” signal for correctional growth, formed at the end of last week. A meeting of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate was held this morning. As expected, the regulator took a wait-and-see position and kept the key interest rate at –0.1%. In an follow-up statement, the Bank of Japan noted that it would maintain the current monetary policy rate until it reaches the inflation target of 2%. XAU/USD Gold prices show flat trading dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating after quite active trading the day before. At the beginning of the week, the instrument showed a steady decline, which was partially triggered by the appearance of correctional dynamics for the oversold USD. Closer to the end of the trading session on Monday, the "bulls" managed to recoup, which was due to increased fears about the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic. The launch of the next Main Street lending program by the US Federal Reserve, which has been actively developed over the past 3 months, provided support to the instrument. Under the new program, financial assistance will be available to small and medium-sized businesses with no more than 15K employees. Loans totaling up to USD 600B are supposed to be granted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR shows a slight increase against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after an active decline yesterday, which was triggered by a new wave of growth in investor demand for safe assets. In turn, the published macroeconomic statistics from Germany and the eurozone turned out to be quite optimistic. Germany's consumer price index in May grew by 0.6% YoY, while the harmonized CPI added 0.5% YoY, which fully coincided with market expectations. ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in June rose sharply from 51 to 63.4 points, exceeding the forecast for growth to 60 points. The index of economic sentiment in the eurozone in June also increased from 46 to 58.6 points (ZEW survey data). European investors today are focused on the statistics on consumer inflation in the euro area in May. In addition, the market is awaiting speeches by ECB representatives Yves Mersch and Luis de Guindos. GBP/USD GBP today shows flat trading against USD, consolidating after yesterday's "bearish" correction. Pressure on the instrument was exerted by the growing USD, which again became popular amid alarming concerns about the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic, which intensified yesterday when China announced that it would close all schools in Beijing due to a another surge in infections. Macroeconomic statistics from the UK published yesterday turned out to be mixed. Investors were optimistic about the unemployment rate from ILO, which in April remained at the previous level of 3.9% 3MoY with a forecast of growth of up to 4.5% 3MoY. However, investors understand that the calculation period matters and the real situation in the UK labor market is noticeably worse. Average Earnings Including Bonus slowed down from +2.3% 3MoY to +1.0% 3MoY in April, which also turned out to be worse than market expectations of +1.4% 3MoY. AUD/USD AUD shows ambiguous trading dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating near 0.6870. The instrument weakened noticeably amid growing fears about a new wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. Morbidity statistics in individual countries show growth, and China, for example, has decided to close all schools in Beijing because of another surge in infections. Additional support for USD was provided by the comments of the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, who said that the US economy may have reached its bottom and is beginning a period of active recovery. Today's macroeconomic statistics released in Australia did not have any noticeable effect on the movement of the instrument. HIA New Home Sales in April decreased by 4.2% MoM after falling by 1.1% MoM last month. USD/JPY USD is showing flat dynamics against JPY during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs since June 10. Both USD and JPY received support amid alarming news of the closure of schools in Beijing due to an outbreak of coronavirus incidence, which increased the risks of a second wave of the epidemic in the world. Additional support to USD was provided on Tuesday by macroeconomic statistics in the US. Retail Sales in May showed strong growth of 17.7% MoM after a decline of 14.7% MoM in April. Analysts had expected growth of 8% MoM. Industrial Production in May grew by 1.4% MoM after a record decline of 12.5% MoM last month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 2.9% MoM. XAU/USD Gold prices change insignificantly; however, they continue to be kept close to record highs, as the market situation remains ambiguous. Significant support for the instrument is provided by rising concerns about the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic, which again could lead to significant restrictions and, as a result, to another economic downturn. In addition, investors prefer gold knowing the details of a new loan assistance program from the Fed. At the same time, yesterday’s speech by the head of the Fed Jerome Powell aroused timid optimism among American investors. Among other things, the official said that the American economy has reached its bottom, and at the moment, an active process of its recovery is beginning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 18, 2020 Share Posted June 18, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR shows flat dynamics of trading against USD during today's morning session. The instrument is trading near 1.1250, feeling the pressure due to growing alarming market sentiment toward the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic. Demand for USD intensified after reports from China, which was forced to close schools in Beijing, cancel more than 1,000 domestic flights and introduce a three-week quarantine in Heilongjiang, where another outbreak was recorded. The macroeconomic data from the eurozone, published on Wednesday, also added negativity. Consumer Price Index fell by 0.1% MoM in May after rising by 0.3% MoM last month. In annual terms, prices retained the same minimum rate of growth (0.1% YoY). According to April data, the Construction Output volume collapsed by 28.4% YoY after a decrease of 17.5% YoY last month. GBP/USD GBP today is trading in both directions paired with USD maintaining a "bearish" momentum formed two days ago. GBP, like many other currencies on the market, has recently yielded to the "safe" USD due to rising fears about a new wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. UK macroeconomic statistics released yesterday only added negative factors to the market, although the reaction of investors has been largely restrained. Inflation in the UK in May dropped from +0.8% YoY to +0.5% YoY, which is likely to push the Bank of England to new actions. Retail Price Index for the same period moved into the negative area, falling by 0.1% MoM, while analysts expected growth by 0.1%. Today, investors are focused on the Bank of England decision on the interest rate. Most experts are confident that the regulator will not change the interest rate, but will increase the volume of the quantitative easing program, which now amounts to 645B pounds. NZD/USD NZD shows ambiguous trading against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of lateral trend in the short term. Buying activity for the instrument significantly decreased last week, when alarming statistics began to arrive on the market, which may indicate the imminent start of the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic. Geopolitical tensions are also growing. Relations between South Korea and the DPRK escalated during the week, and an armed conflict occurred on the border between China and India, in which dozens people were killed. New Zealand macroeconomic statistics released today also turned out to be negative. According to the results of Q1 2020, New Zealand's GDP decreased by 0.2% YoY after an increase of 1.8% YoY in the previous period. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at +0.3% YoY. On a quarterly basis, New Zealand's economy fell by 1.6% QoQ, with a forecast of a reduction of only 1% QoQ. USD/JPY USD is falling against JPY during today's Asian session, continuing to develop the "bearish" momentum that formed the day before. The market is again seeing an increase in investor interest in safe assets amid growing geopolitical tensions and growing risks of a second wave of the coronavirus epidemic. At the same time, USD received some support from data on the US housing market on Wednesday. In May, Housing Starts increased by 0.974M after an increase of 0.934M last month. Building Permits number issued for the same period also increased markedly from 1.066M to 1.22M, which, however, was slightly worse than market expectations. Today, investors are focused on the dynamics of initial and continuing jobless claims in the US. XAU/USD Gold prices show flat dynamics of trading against USD during today's Asian session, maintaining a similar trend in the short term. Yesterday, the asset quotes showed an active decline, which was associated with the news about the treatment process of COVID-19. Later, however, the "bears" quickly lost their gains, and the instrument returned to the opening levels amid growing alarming news about the second wave of the epidemic and rising geopolitical risks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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