MikhailLF Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 EUR/USD EUR shows a "bearish" trend against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a downtrend since the beginning of the current trading week. USD is still in high demand, as investors are scared by the situation in the world. So far, depressing macroeconomic publications from the US have little influence on USD; however, the situation is gradually changing, and it will not be possible to ignore evidence of the coming deep economic crisis. The data from the US reflected a sharp increase in the number of Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 27 by a record 6.6M, which was almost half worse than the forecast. Today, investors expect the publication of the March report on the US labor market, which also does not bode well. Data from the euro are in the background for the time being. On Friday, European countries will continue to report on business activity in the services sector for March, and the euro area will release February statistics on retail sales. GBP/USD GBP begins the last day of the trading week with a flat dynamics against USD, continuing to trade near 1.2400. Demand for USD is supported by a high interest of investors in safe assets and additional sources of liquidity; however, traders are in no hurry to actively sell GBP amid the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the US. The prospects for the US economy have deteriorated markedly, despite the fact that the peak of the coronavirus epidemic has not yet been overcome. In the current conditions, the onset of a recession in the US economy is almost inevitable, and the darkest forecasts even suggest the beginning of a period of a new "depression". Today investors are focused on the publication of the March report on the US labor market. Among other things, analysts expect a sharp reduction in the number of new jobs and a jump in unemployment to 3.8%. AUD/USD AUD is showing slight growth against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from local lows since March 26, updated the day before. Slight support for AUD has increased pressure on USD as negative macroeconomic statistics from the US accumulate. USD is still supported by the status of a safe haven currency; however, investors are seriously scared by the pace of slowdown in the first world economy. Meanwhile, weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia came out today, which, however, was not a surprise. AiG Performance of Construction Index in March fell from 42.7 to 37.9 points. Commonwealth Bank Services PMI for the same period corrected from 39.8 to 38.5 points with a neutral outlook. Commonwealth Bank Composite PMI in March fell from 40.7 to 39.4 points. Consumer sentiment, in turn, was supported by statistics from China, which is gradually recovering from the epidemic. Jibun Bank Services PMI in March jumped from 26.5 to 43 points. USD/JPY USD shows weak growth against JPY during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a "bullish" impulse that formed yesterday. The instrument adds about 0.07% and is actively testing the level of 108.00 for a breakout. USD ignored yesterday's publication of statistics from the US, indicating a record increase in the number of Initial Jobless Claims, as investors are still interested in a source of additional liquidity. The "bullish" activity of traders in the first hours of trading on Friday is noticeably lower, since investors have no desire to maintain long positions on the weekend, and in addition, the market expects the publication of a disappointing US labor market report for March. Today's data from Japan indicated a decrease in Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI from in March from 46.8 to 33.8 points against the forecast of a reduction to 32.7 points. XAU/USD Gold prices are falling during today's Asian session, correcting after strong growth triggered by the publication of data on applications for unemployment benefits in the US. Demand for the asset remains quite high against the backdrop of the raging pandemic of coronavirus. Moreover, analysts expect that with the publication of data indicating the beginning of a deep global economic crisis, the demand for the instrument will only increase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 EUR/USD EUR shows a "bearish" trend against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a downtrend since the beginning of the current trading week. USD is still in high demand, as investors are scared by the situation in the world. So far, depressing macroeconomic publications from the US have little influence on USD; however, the situation is gradually changing, and it will not be possible to ignore evidence of the coming deep economic crisis. The data from the US reflected a sharp increase in the number of Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 27 by a record 6.6M, which was almost half worse than the forecast. Today, investors expect the publication of the March report on the US labor market, which also does not bode well. Data from the euro are in the background for the time being. On Friday, European countries will continue to report on business activity in the services sector for March, and the euro area will release February statistics on retail sales. GBP/USD GBP begins the last day of the trading week with a flat dynamics against USD, continuing to trade near 1.2400. Demand for USD is supported by a high interest of investors in safe assets and additional sources of liquidity; however, traders are in no hurry to actively sell GBP amid the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the US. The prospects for the US economy have deteriorated markedly, despite the fact that the peak of the coronavirus epidemic has not yet been overcome. In the current conditions, the onset of a recession in the US economy is almost inevitable, and the darkest forecasts even suggest the beginning of a period of a new "depression". Today investors are focused on the publication of the March report on the US labor market. Among other things, analysts expect a sharp reduction in the number of new jobs and a jump in unemployment to 3.8%. AUD/USD AUD is showing slight growth against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from local lows since March 26, updated the day before. Slight support for AUD has increased pressure on USD as negative macroeconomic statistics from the US accumulate. USD is still supported by the status of a safe haven currency; however, investors are seriously scared by the pace of slowdown in the first world economy. Meanwhile, weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia came out today, which, however, was not a surprise. AiG Performance of Construction Index in March fell from 42.7 to 37.9 points. Commonwealth Bank Services PMI for the same period corrected from 39.8 to 38.5 points with a neutral outlook. Commonwealth Bank Composite PMI in March fell from 40.7 to 39.4 points. Consumer sentiment, in turn, was supported by statistics from China, which is gradually recovering from the epidemic. Jibun Bank Services PMI in March jumped from 26.5 to 43 points. USD/JPY USD shows weak growth against JPY during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a "bullish" impulse that formed yesterday. The instrument adds about 0.07% and is actively testing the level of 108.00 for a breakout. USD ignored yesterday's publication of statistics from the US, indicating a record increase in the number of Initial Jobless Claims, as investors are still interested in a source of additional liquidity. The "bullish" activity of traders in the first hours of trading on Friday is noticeably lower, since investors have no desire to maintain long positions on the weekend, and in addition, the market expects the publication of a disappointing US labor market report for March. Today's data from Japan indicated a decrease in Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI from in March from 46.8 to 33.8 points against the forecast of a reduction to 32.7 points. XAU/USD Gold prices are falling during today's Asian session, correcting after strong growth triggered by the publication of data on applications for unemployment benefits in the US. Demand for the asset remains quite high against the backdrop of the raging pandemic of coronavirus. Moreover, analysts expect that with the publication of data indicating the beginning of a deep global economic crisis, the demand for the instrument will only increase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is growing moderately, retreating from local lows, renewed yesterday. As before, the current EUR’s attempt to strengthen is technical, while the demand for it remains quite low. However, investors are optimistic about the reports of European countries, which indicate a decrease in cases of new infections with coronavirus, which gives some hope and supports the euro. Published macroeconomic statistics from Europe so far leaves much to be desired. So, the data on the dynamics of production orders in Germany released on Monday reflected a decrease of 1.4% MoM in February after an increase of 4.8% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected a decline of 1.9% MoM. According to preliminary estimates for April, the Sentix investor confidence indicator crashed from –17.1 to –42.9 points, which was noticeably worse than market expectations of –30.3 points. On Tuesday, investors are focused on German statistics on the dynamics of industrial production for February. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is growing, retreating from local lows of March 27. The pound grows after an uncertain decline last week, which forced him to retreat from highs since mid-March. Some pressure on the British currency has the hospitalization of Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Previously, he was self-isolated and worked remotely due to infection with coronavirus but later he was still forced to seek medical help. British macroeconomic statistics remain negative. So, on Monday the index of business activity in the construction sector came out, which fell from 52.6 to 39.3 points for March against the forecast of a decrease to 44 points. AUD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is growing, continuing the development of the “bullish” momentum formed at the beginning of the week. Now, the instrument has added about 1% and is testing the level of 0.6150 for a breakout. On Tuesday, investors are focused on the publication of macroeconomic statistics from Australia, as well as the RBA decision on the interest rate. As expected, the Australian regulator did not change the parameters of monetary policy and kept the rate at a minimum level of 0.25%. The accompanying statement noted significant risks of a slowdown in the global economy due to the coronavirus pandemic. Published statistics reflected a sharp decline in the AiG index of activity in the service sector of Australia in March from 47 to 38.7 points. The vacancy index for the same period from ANZ fell 10.3% after rising 0.7% in February. Experts expected the appearance of negative dynamics but expected a decrease of only 2.9%. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair significantly reduced, retreating from the local highs, renewed at the beginning of the week. Now, the instrument has lost about 0.4% and is testing the level of 108.70 for a breakdown. The yen is supported by some correction in the US currency and the publication of positive Japanese macroeconomic statistics for February. In turn, its more confident growth is hindered by fears of a state of emergency in the country today against the background of a sharp increase in the number of patients with coronavirus in Tokyo. Japan's matching indicators index in February rose from 95.2 to 95.8 points, which was better than market expectations of 95.1 points. The leading indicators index for the same period jumped from 90.5 to 92.1 points with a forecast of 90.4 points. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are consolidating, retreating from local highs, which were renewed after a sharp increase in the instrument yesterday. The instrument is supported by the strengthening of alarming market sentiment due to a sharp slowdown in the global economy. The quarantine measures that many countries take today in connection with the spread of coronavirus have an extremely negative effect on almost all sectors of the economy, threatening the onset of a long period of recession or even depression. Demand for the dollar remains high but also suffers from the publication of disappointing data from the US, which indicates a record drop in the labor market, rising unemployment, and declining manufacturing activity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 EUR/USD EUR is weakening against USD during today's Asian session, falling again after strong corrective growth yesterday, which allowed EUR to retreat from local lows since March 25. Timid optimism regarding the stabilization of the situation with the coronavirus makes its way to the market and facilitates reduction of USD, which still serves as a safe haven. The countries of Europe that have suffered the most from the epidemic publish statistics that allow to hope that the peak incidence rate has already been passed, and a number of states have even thought about easing the previously imposed restrictions. Macroeconomic statistics from Europe published on Tuesday also did not hinder the strengthening of EUR. February data on the dynamics of industrial production in Germany indicated an increase of 0.3% MoM, which was much better than market expectations of –0.9% MoM. In annual terms, production rates slowed down from –0.9% YoY to –1.2% YoY, but again came out stronger than their forecasts (–3.9% YoY). GBP/USD GBP shows the flat dynamics of trading during today's Asian session, slightly correcting after active growth yesterday. GBP was supported by a slight increase in optimism in the market, which is associated with the approaching peak of the coronavirus epidemic in Europe and the USA. At the same time, British investors are in no hurry to open new long positions on GBP, since Boris Johnson is still in intensive care, and the dynamics of the incidence in the UK continues to trend upward. UK macroeconomic statistics released yesterday were neutral. Halifax House Prices in March showed zero dynamics after rising by 0.2% MoM last month. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at 0.1% MoM. In terms of annual growth rates, the index showed an increase of 3%, accelerating from the previous value of 2.8%. AUD/USD AUD declines against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs since March 31, updated the day before. The instrument loses about 0.50%, testing the level of 0.6130 for a breakdown. The pair's decline is taking place against the backdrop of a partial restoration of USD, which was under pressure the day before amid the first signs of stabilization of the situation with coronavirus in the main foci in Europe and the USA. Moreover, Italy and Spain report a drop in mortality, which prompted analysts to predict the timing of the beginning of the weakening of restrictive measures in these countries. The pressure on AUD on Wednesday is exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Home Loans issued in Australia in February decreased by 1.7% MoM after rising by 1.3% MoM last month. Investment Lending for Homes for the same period decreased by 1.9% MoM after a slight increase of 0.05% (revised from +3.6%) for the previous period. USD/JPY USD is again showing moderate growth against JPY during today's Asian session, recovering to previous local highs after a correctional rebound the day before. The growth of optimism regarding the stabilization of the dynamics of the incidence of coronavirus in the main foci of the epidemic in Europe and the US contributed to the emergence of corrective sentiment for USD, but it is clear that investors are not yet ready to abandon the source of increased liquidity. Wednesday's macroeconomic statistics from Japan turned out to be ambiguous. Machinery Orders in Japan in February increased by 2.3% MoM after growth of 2.9% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected negative dynamics to appear at –2.7% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator fell by 2.4% YoY after decreasing by 0.3% YoY in January. Experts expected a decrease of 2.9% YoY. Japanese Eco Watchers Survey Current Index in March was revised downwards from 27.4 to 14.2 points with a positive forecast of growth to 27.6 points. Eco Watchers Survey Outlook over the same period decreased from 24.6 to 18.8 points with a forecast of 38.1 points. The yen is also under pressure from a state of emergency declared on Tuesday in Tokyo and six other prefectures. XAU/USD Gold prices are rising during today's Asian session, recovering from a decline the previous day, which allowed the instrument to retreat from local highs since March 10. The formation of correctional dynamics was caused by the growth of optimistic sentiment in the market against the background of the first signs of stabilization of the situation with the dynamics of the incidence of coronavirus in a number of regions. At the same time, the situation remains difficult, and the potential lifting of quarantine measures in the near future, of course, will not solve the aggravated economic problems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is growing slightly, continuing to develop the “bullish” momentum formed on Tuesday. Yesterday, EUR declined due to the failure of the Eurogroup negotiations, which lasted more than 15 hours. Initially, the meeting was supposed to agree on a new package of measures to support the European economy of more than 500 billion euros but due to several disagreements, a consensus was not reached. However, the Eurogroup intends to continue its negotiations on Thursday, so investors still hope for a positive outcome. Also, today, traders are focused on the ECB Meeting Minutes release. There will be few key macroeconomic statistics from Europe. The February data on import and export of Germany, as well as the February statistics on the dynamics of industrial production in Italy, deserve the most attention. More important are US Initial Jobless Claims data, which last week rose sharply to 6648K. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading ambiguously, remaining around the local highs since April 2. GBP is supported by a moderate increase in investor interest in risk against the background of some stabilization of the dynamics of coronavirus spread in Europe and the United States. However, investors are extremely cautious, fearing new outbreaks and evaluating the negative economic consequences that are only now beginning to be seen. On Thursday, traders are focused on a block of statistics on industrial production and the dynamics of the UK GDP in February. Also, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research of the United Kingdom will publish estimates of the country's GDP growth rates for March. NZD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair is growing moderately, trading near the local highs since March 31. NZD is strengthening due to the development of USD correction dynamics, which is slightly weakening due to improved investor sentiment in the market. The statistics of incidence in Europe suggest that the epidemic has reached its peak, and soon, a gradual easing of several restrictive measures may be expected. Some stabilization was outlined in New York, which was hit hardest by the US epidemic. There it is too early to talk about reaching a peak but the general trend is positive. More confident growth in the New Zealand dollar is hindered by the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand. So, Electronic Card Retail Sales in March decreased by 3.9% MoM after an increase by 0.5% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected positive dynamics of +0.3% MoM. Also, the indicator fell from +8.6% YoY to -1.8% YoY against the forecast of +5.3% YoY. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is growing moderately, recovering from a pullback on Tuesday. Now, the US currency is trying to consolidate above 109.00 supported by high demand for shelter assets. In turn, the position of the Japanese yen remains under pressure due to the emergency regime introduced recently in Tokyo and several prefectures surrounding it in response to the accelerated spread of the epidemic within the country. Macroeconomic statistics published on Thursday from Japan remains in the background and does not significantly affect the dynamics of the instrument. Thus, the volume of foreign investment in Japanese stocks for the week of April 3 increased by 422.7 billion yen after a decrease of 1,422.1 billion yen in the previous period. In turn, investment in foreign bonds for the same period fell sharply by 1,056.4 billion yen after an increase of 2.5 billion yen in the previous period. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are recovering, partially compensating for the decline on Tuesday and Wednesday, when the instrument retreated from its local highs since March 10. The instrument is still supported by an uncertain perspective around the coronavirus epidemic. The market is receiving signals that the epidemic may have reached its peak in Europe but investors are afraid to make hasty conclusions. The situation in the United States remains difficult, although the stabilization of new cases of infection has been outlined in New York. Also, investors are awaiting the outcome of today's OPEC+ meeting, which will be held remotely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 EUR/USD EUR is showing uncertain growth against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bullish" trend that formed on April 7. EUR is supported by strengthening correctional sentiments for USD, which is keenly reacting to the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the USA. On Thursday, investors drew attention to the release of information on Initial Jobless Claims. For the week ending April 3, the number of applications amounted to 6.606M after 6.867M in the previous period with a forecast of 5.2M. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April fell sharply from 89.1 to 71 points, which also turned out to be worse than market expectations of 75 points. Today, investors expect the publication of March statistics on consumer inflation in the United States. In addition, closer to the end of the American session, the United States will publish a Monthly Budget Statement for March. GBP/USD GBP maintains the upward direction of trading paired with USD and updates local highs from March 27 during today's Asian session. GBP is ready to end the week with moderate growth against USD amid fluctuations in USD due to the coronavirus and the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the US. Investors are seriously concerned about the economic consequences of the raging epidemic for the first economy in the world and are trying to somehow minimize their risks. The macroeconomic statistics from the UK published yesterday was contradictory. UK GDP in February showed a decrease of 0.1% MoM despite the expected growth of 0.1%. At the same time, Manufacturing Production in February unexpectedly accelerated from 0.4% MoM to 0.5% MoM, which was better than forecasts of 0.1% MoM. AUD/USD AUD shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against USD and is consolidating near local highs since March 12, updated the day before. Today, exchanges are closed in many countries due to Good Friday, so trading activity remains low. However, given the high level of volatility in the market, it is possible that in the afternoon, with the publication of US data, activity will begin to gradually recover. During the Asian session, traders are focused on the publication of macroeconomic statistics from China. In March, Consumer Price Index slowed down from 5.2% YoY to 4.3% YoY, which turned out to be worse than expert estimates at 4.8% YoY. On a monthly basis, consumer inflation in March fell by 1.2% MoM after rising by 0.8% MoM in February. Analysts had expected negative trend to appear, but counted on only 0.7% MoM decline. USD/JPY USD is trading ambiguously against JPY during today's Asian session, maintaining a downtrend amid an attempt of the instrument to correct downwards since April 7. Pressure on USD was exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics, which exposes the depressing prospects for the economy in the near future. This is about prospects for the global economy, but the data from the USA are still at the forefront. Statistics from Japan published today remained without any attention from traders. At the same time, the volume of bank lending in March slightly decreased from 2.1% YoY to 2.0% YoY, which coincided with expert estimates. Producer Price Index for the same period decreased by 0.4% YoY after rising by 0.8% YoY in February. Analysts had expected decline by 0.1% YoY. MoM, Producer Price Index in March fell by 0.9%, accelerating from –0.4% in February. The indicator was worse than the forecast of –0.7% MoM. XAU/USD Gold prices rose significantly (about 3%) at trading yesterday, approaching the level of 1690.00, which is the highest since March 9. The data on Initial Jobless Claims in the United States again put pressure on USD, which is already subject to correctional sentiment this week. New measures to support the economy, which countries are taking in response to the economic consequences of the coronavirus epidemic, are also increasing gold demand. On Thursday, it became known that the Fed plans to implement an additional program of support for small businesses in the amount of USD 2.3 trillion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 EUR/USD EUR is falling slightly against USD during today’s Asian session, retreating from local highs, updated at the end of last trading week. Trading activity remains quite low, as European markets remain closed on Easter Monday. Investors are still focused on the coronavirus situation. Some signs of stabilization of the situation in Europe and the USA give certain hope to market participants; however, it’s still premature to talk about overcoming the peak of the epidemic. Macroeconomic statistics from the US published last Friday put pressure on USD. Consumer Price Index in March decreased by 0.4% MoM after rising by 0.1% MoM in February. Analysts had expected decline by 0.3% MoM. In annual terms, inflation growth slowed from 2.3% YoY to 1.5% YoY, which also turned out to be worse than market expectations of 1.6% YoY. GBP/USD GBP is trading higher against USD, located near the local highs, updated on April 10. Against the backdrop of the thin market and continuing concerns about the prospects for the development of the global economy, GBP is supported by investors, responding to the favorable course of the disease with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who left the intensive care unit last week. Additional pressure on the position of the US currency was provided by the approval of the new loan program of the Fed for small and medium-sized businesses. Investors are increasingly paying attention to quantitative indicators of the US economy, each time reviewing analysts' forecasts for the worse. The Friday data on consumer inflation in the USA for March, which came out noticeably worse than market expectations, were no exception. NZD/USD NZD shows flat dynamics against USD during today's Asian session, trading near the local highs since March 16, which the instrument managed to update at the end of last week. The pair is trying to consolidate below 0.6070; however, the reason for its slight correction is mainly due to technical factors. Investors remain focused on Friday's data on consumer inflation from the US and China. As expected, the data disappointed investors. Chinese Consumer Price Index in March declined by 1.2% MoM after an increase of 0.8% MoM in February. Analysts expected a decline of 0.7% MoM. In annual terms, the index has slowed from 5.2% YoY to 4.3% YoY, with the forecast of 4.8% YoY. USD/JPY USD is falling against JPY during today's Asian session, continuing to develop the "bearish" impulse that formed in the market at the beginning of last week. The instrument loses about 0.40%, testing the level of 108.00 for a breakdown. Demand for JPY remains quite low after Japan began to impose a state of emergency in Tokyo and a number of prefectures surrounding it amid a sharp increase in the incidence of coronavirus. Investors fear that the peak of the epidemic for Japan is yet to come, while in the US, despite the depressing statistics, it seems that some stabilization is expected. XAU/USD Gold prices are falling during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs since March 9, which the instrument managed to update at the opening of trading this week. Investors fix their long profits after active asset growth last Thursday (markets were closed due to the religious holiday on Friday), while gold demand remains quite high, especially given the new measures to support the economy from the Fed and the disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the US. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted April 14, 2020 Share Posted April 14, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is growing, recovering from a correctional decline yesterday, when the euro retreated from its local highs of the beginning of the month. On Tuesday, the currency was slightly supported by positive macroeconomic statistics from China, which defused the overall negative market situation a bit. Thus, the March volume of exports decreased by 6.6% YoY after a decrease by 17.2% YoY for February. Analysts had expected a drop by 15% YoY. Imports for the same period decreased by only 0.9% YoY against the forecasts of a decrease by 8% YoY. The trade surplus in March amounted to $19.9 billion, which was slightly better than market expectations of $18 billion. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is actively growing, renewing the maximum since March 13 of this year. Investors continue to buy the pound as a source of additional risk amid some correction in the US currency, while markets ignore the growing threats regarding the rate of spread of coronavirus in the UK. Meanwhile, yesterday the number of deaths from the illness in the country reached 10K people, and analysts believe that the UK may show some of the worst epidemiological results in all of Europe. Earlier this week, the UK Treasury Secretary said the country could lose up to 30% of its GDP this quarter. AUD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the pair AUD/USD is growing moderately, renewing local highs since March 12. Now, the Australian dollar has added about 0.64% and is testing the level of 0.6420 for a breakout. The currency almost completely ignores negative macroeconomic publications from Australia, while responding positively to optimistic signals from the Chinese economy. The National Bank of Australia’s business confidence index for March fell sharply from –2 to –66 points against a neutral outlook. The NBA business environment index for the same period dropped from 0 to –21 points, which is also worse than market expectations. On Thursday, investors expect the publication of March statistics on the Australian labor market. It is predicted that the level of employment in the country could drop sharply by 40K places, and the unemployment rate will rise from 5.1% to 5.5%. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is falling, trading near local lows since April 2, renewed yesterday. Against the background of some correction of the American currency, the yen for some time has become an attractive option for investors looking for shelter assets. In turn, the situation with coronavirus remains difficult in the United States and Japan. On Tuesday, American statistics on the dynamics of import prices for March and the Redbook retail sales index for the week of April 10 are in the spotlight. Key data from Japan will begin to enter the market only at the end of the week when the country will report on industrial production and capacity utilization for February. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices show flat trading dynamics, consolidating near record highs since November 2012, renewed due to the active growth of the instrument at the end of last week and on Monday. Demand for the precious metal continues to remain high amid growing uncertainty in the market. Also, recently there has been a correlation between the growth of gold and stock exchanges, which are also trying to go into an upward correction due to some stabilization of the situation with coronavirus in Europe and the USA. Additional support for the course is provided by the approval of a new OPEC+ agreement aimed at reducing oil production by 10 million barrels per day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted April 15, 2020 Share Posted April 15, 2020 EUR/USD EUR is trading in flat during today's Asian session, consolidating near new local highs since April 1. Yesterday EUR managed to demonstrate an active positive trend against USD, having received support from the growth of optimistic sentiment in the market. The main reason for increasing the interest of traders in risk remains some stabilization of the situation with the spread of coronavirus in Europe. For example, Germany, Italy and Spain report a slowdown in the number of new infected people, while Denmark is gradually repealing quarantine restrictions previously introduced. European investors are now focusing on consumer inflation statistics for March in France, Spain and Italy. With the opening of the American session, the focus will shift to the March dynamics of retail sales and the new economic review (Beige Book) from the US Federal Reserve. GBP/USD GBP is trading with multidirectional dynamics against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating near the local highs since March 12. GBP is showing growth amid the development of correctional sentiment in USD as the situation with coronavirus in Europe stabilizes. European countries publish encouraging statistics on the dynamics of the morbidity and mortality from the virus, which gives hope for the gradual lifting of quarantine restrictions and the restoration of economic activity. In the next few days, the UK government should decide to extend the restrictive measures. The negative and at the same time the most realistic scenario suggests that the deadlines will be extended until early May. NZD/USD NZD declines against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs updated the day before. The decrease in the instrument is largely technical in nature, while USD remains under pressure against the background of a gradual improvement in the situation with coronavirus in Europe. Slight pressure on NZD is exerted by the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand. The data released yesterday reflected a sharp decrease in Visitor Arrivals in February by 10.8% YoY after an increase of 2.9% YoY in January. It is obvious that the March statistics for this indicator will be even worse due to the travel restrictions introduced everywhere. REINZ House Price Index for March released today slowed sharply from +3.1% MoM to +0.7% MoM, which also turned out to be worse than the average market expectations. USD/JPY USD continues to decline against JPY, updating local lows since March 18 during today's Asian session. Demand for USD is noticeably declining in the market as prospects with a coronavirus in Europe improve. Additional pressure on USD is exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from the US, which indicates the approach of a deep economic crisis, which threatens the whole world. According to estimates of the International Monetary Fund, the global economy may decline by 3% in 2020. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the US on the dynamics of Retail Sales and Industrial Production for March. Closer to the end of the afternoon session, the Fed will release an updated economic review called The Beige Book. XAU/USD Gold prices show flat dynamics during today's Asian session, somewhat deviating from record 7-year highs, updated the day before. Demand for gold is growing in proportion to its decline in USD, as the prospects for coronavirus improve the uncertainty associated with damage to the global economy from widespread restrictions grows. It is obvious that in 2020 the world economy will show a decline, but how deep the economic crisis will be is not yet known. It should also be noted that different regions will suffer from the crisis in different ways. Europe, for example, is already showing decline in the number of new cases, while in some regions steady growth is still observed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted April 16, 2020 Share Posted April 16, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is falling, continuing the development of the “bearish” impulse formed yesterday. Investors are again fleeing risk after posting disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the US on Wednesday, which recalled the dire economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, Retail Sales in March fell by 8.7% MoM after a decline of 0.4% MoM in January. Analysts had expected a weakening of 8.0% MoM. Sales dynamics was the worst since 1992. The rate of Industrial Production for the same period fell by 5.4% MoM, exceeding the most negative forecasts for a decrease of 4% MoM. The dynamics of industrial production was the weakest since the end of World War II. The percentage of capacity utilization in March also fell significantly from 77% to 72.7%, which was worse than the forecasts of 73.8%. Finally, the April index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York fell from –21.5 to –78.2 points, while investors expected a decrease only to –35 points. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is falling, developing the correction impulse formed yesterday. Investors prefer to avoid risks again and buy USD. The reason for the next aggravation of the situation was the disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the United States, which reflected a record drop in industrial production and retail sales. British investors extrapolated the situation to their country, where the statistical picture of the epidemic dynamics is also depressing. Released data also signalize the immersion of the British economy in crisis. Thus, statistics on retail sales from the Confederation of British Industrialists in March fell sharply by 3.5% YoY after weakening by 0.4% YoY in February. AUD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is declining, developing correctional dynamics against the background of widespread growth in demand for the American currency. Interest in shelter assets is growing rapidly after the appearance of Wednesday disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the United States, which frightened investors with the magnitude of the impending economic crisis in the global economy. In turn, the Australian dollar almost completely ignores the publication of an unexpectedly strong Australian labor market report for March. Thus, the employment rate grew by 5.9K jobs after rising by 25.6K in February. The unemployment rate for the same period increased by only 0.1% to 5.2%, which also was noticeably better than the market expectations of 5.5%. However, the report captured only the first half of March, when Australia had not yet implemented strict restrictive measures. Obviously, the real picture of the labor market is currently much worse. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is actively growing; continuing to develop the correction signal formed yesterday when the dollar managed to retreat from local lows from March 18. Now, the US currency has risen by 0.47% and is testing the level of 108.00 for a breakout. The surge in demand for the dollar is due to the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics on the dynamics of retail sales and industrial production in the US in March. Also, the season of American corporate reporting has started, which also does not please investors. For example, the stocks of Bank of America Corp. decreased by almost 7% after the quarterly report publication, which indicated a decline in profit by 48%. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices show flat dynamics, stepping back from yesterday’s record highs, as investors again actively are buying the American currency after the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the United States. However, it is clear that the demand for gold remains quite high, which does not allow the instrument to reverse into a downward correction. On Thursday, investors are focused on the March statistics on the dynamics of the started construction of houses in the United States and the Initial Jobless Claims data, which will put additional pressure on the dollar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 EUR/USD EUR shows moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after a two-day decline, which led the instrument to updating local lows of April 7. There is still uncertainty in the market. Under the influence of new macroeconomic publications from the USA, as well as due to the extension of quarantine restrictions by some countries, investors tend to buy a "safe" USD, albeit with some reservations. Data released on Thursday in the US indicated an increase in Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 10 by 5.245M, which turned out to be worse than forecasts of 5.105M, but still slightly better than last week when 6.615M people applied for benefits. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey fell by 56.6 points in April, which was almost twice as bad as market expectations. European investors today are focused on the March statistics on consumer inflation in the euro area in March. GBP/USD GBP shows a slight increase during today's Asian session, almost completely compensating for the decline yesterday. Pressure on GBP is exerted by the fact that the UK, due to the rather difficult epidemiological situation in the country, extends the restrictive measures for another 3 weeks. An additional negative factor for the instrument is the uncertain outlook regarding a trade agreement between the EU and the UK. After leaving the EU, the country entered a transitional period, during which it must reach a final agreement with the EU on a number of pressing issues. Earlier, the UK categorically refused the proposal of the European Union to extend the deadline for concluding the final deal, which in the current conditions of restrictive measures could play against London and would aggravate the risks of the hard Brexit. NZD/USD NZD is showing strong growth against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after a steady decline over the previous two sessions in a row. The instrument adds about 0.80% and tests 0.6020 for a breakout. The reason for the appearance of correctional dynamics at the end of the week is another weakening of USD in the market, while the general interest of investors in "safe" assets remains high. Today, traders are focused on the publication of Chinese statistics. China's GDP in Q1 2020 showed a decrease of 6.8% YoY after an increase of 6% YoY in the previous period. Analysts had expected decline by 6.5% YoY. In quarterly terms, GDP decreased by 9.8% QoQ, which generally met investor expectations. Industrial Production in March decreased by 1.1% YoY, which turned out to be significantly better than the forecasts of –7.3% YoY. In February production decreased by 13.5% YoY. USD/JPY USD is falling slightly against JPY during today's Asian session, retreating from Monday's local highs, updated the day before. The appearance of correctional dynamics is due to a decrease in USD at the end of the week, while JPY remains under pressure from weak statistics from Japan. In addition, Japanese investors react negatively to the expansion of the state of emergency in Japan, which is now spreading throughout the country. Industrial Production in Japan in February showed a decrease of 0.3% MoM and 5.7% YoY, which turned out to be noticeably worse than last month: +0.4% MoM and –4.7% YoY. Capacity Utilization in February fell by 1.8% after rising 1.1% in January. Tertiary Industry Index for the same period decreased by 0.5% MoM after rising by 0.8% MoM in January. XAU/USD Gold prices are declining markedly during today's Asian session, developing a weak correctional impulse that has formed last Wednesday. The day before, the instrument showed insignificant growth, which was due to the expansion of quarantine measures in a number of countries, as well as the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the United States, which increased concerns about the magnitude of the recession in the global economy. At the same time, demand for USD remains quite high, as investors still buy it as a "safe" asset. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 EUR/USD EUR shows flat dynamics against USD during today's Asian session, maintaining a "bullish" momentum formed at the end of last trading week. The pressure on USD was exerted by the new recommendations of Donald Trump that suggest the phased lifting of restrictions in several states within a month. Additional pressure on USD was exerted by news about a new drug to combat coronavirus, which also contributed to the growth of investor interest in risky assets. Friday's statistics from China remained virtually unattended by traders, as well as March data on consumer inflation from the euro area. However, Consumer Price Index in the euro area in March rose by 0.5% MoM and 0.7% YoY, which coincided with expectations. Core Consumer Price Index remained at the same level of 1% YoY. Today, European investors are focused on the publication of February statistics on trade balance of the euro area. The release of German Bundesbank monthly report is also expected. GBP/USD GBP shows ambiguous trading against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the flat trend in the short/ultra-short term. Some support for GBP is provided by the correction of USD, which recedes amid the prospects for a partial recovery of the American economy and the news about a new medicine for coronavirus. In turn, the depressing dynamics of the incidence rate in the UK, restrictive measures extended by 3 weeks, as well as the growing risks of complex negotiations between the UK and the EU hinder the further strengthening of GBP. UK macroeconomic statistics released on Monday also put pressure on GBP. The Rightmove House Price Index in April decreased by 0.2% MoM after an increase of 1% MoM in March. In annual terms, the index slowed down from 3.5% YoY to 2.5% YoY. AUD/USD AUD is stable against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating after a slight increase at the end of last week, which allowed the instrument to retreat from its local lows from April 9. Friday statistics from China was left without due attention of investors. However, the data indicated a stronger decline in the Chinese economy than previously estimated by experts. According to the results of Q1 2020, China's GDP decreased by 6.8% YoY after an increase of 6% YoY in the previous quarter. Experts expected a decrease of 6.5% YoY. On a quarterly basis, the decline in GDP almost reached 10%, which coincided with market expectations. Today it became known that in response to weak statistics, the People’s Bank of China decided to lower the interest rate from 4.05% to 3.85%. Australian investors expect the publication of the minutes of the RBA meeting, as well as the speech of the head of the regulator on Tuesday. USD/JPY USD is showing moderate growth against JPY during today's Asian session, recovering after a correctional decline at the end of last week. The instrument adds about 0.30% and is about to test the level of 108.00 for a breakout again. Compared to JPY, USD again looks more preferable as a safe asset, as investors are satisfied with the prospect of Donald Trump's phased lifting of restrictions on the US economy within a month. Additional pressure on JPY on Monday is exerted by weak statistics on exports. In March, export volumes from Japan collapsed by 11.7% YoY after a decline of 1% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline by 4.3% YoY. Imports for the same period decreased by 5% YoY after a decrease of 13.9% YoY in February. Experts expected a more significant reduction of 14.4% YoY. XAU/USD Gold prices show flat dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating near new local lows since April 9, updated due to an active drop in quotations at the end of last trading week. The decline in the price of gold last Friday was due to the new plan of Donald Trump, which provides for the phased removal of restrictions in a number of US states within a month. Additional pressure was exerted on the instrument by the publication of reports testifying to the optimistic results of the first trials of a new experimental drug for coronavirus of American manufacture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted April 21, 2020 Share Posted April 21, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is noticeably declining, approaching the local lows of last Friday amid growing concerns about the state of the world economy and its prospects. Now, EUR has lost about 0.25% and is testing the level of 1.0830 for a breakdown. Yesterday, investors were frightened by a sharp decline in oil futures, which during the one trading day experienced the largest collapse in history and went into the negative zone due to the extremely low demand amid widespread restrictions on the people’s movement and overflowed storage facilities. On Monday, in response to the previously published Chinese statistics, the People’s Bank of China decided to once again reduce the interest rate from 4.05% to 3.85%, which also added negativity to the market. On Tuesday, European investors are focusing on the publication of the results of a ZEW study on business sentiment in the EU and Germany for April. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair shows ambiguous dynamics, developing the “bearish” impulse formed yesterday and renewing local lows of April 9. The negative trend was due to another wave of investors’ aversion from risk, which intensified after a record collapse in oil quotes, as well as growing uncertainty about the prospects for a global economic recovery. On Tuesday, traders are focused on the March report on the UK labor market, which could put significant pressure on the pound. In particular, analysts expect a sharp increase in Claimant Count Change to 172.5K after rising by 17.3K in February. An important block of national statistics will also appear on Wednesday when the March report on consumer and industrial inflation will be released. AUD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is falling, testing the level of 0.6300 for a breakdown. Also to another surge in demand for safe assets, AUD is under pressure of the published RBA Meeting Minutes and the speech of its head Philip Lowe. The main part of his speech was devoted to the prospects of the national economy in the context of the spread of the pandemic and widespread restrictions. The head of the RBA expects that in the second half of 2020, there will be the most significant decline in production since the 1930s and a drop in citizens' incomes. By June, GDP may drop by 10%, while unemployment may jump by 10%. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is slightly falling, continuing the development of flat dynamics in the short term. For a long time, investors cannot decide on a favorite: the demand for USD is supported by the general negative mood of the market, while JPY is attractive during the publication of recent disappointing US macroeconomic data. US corporate reports are now being published, which reflect a sharp drop in income and economic activity in almost all sectors of the economy. For example, yesterday, it became known that Walt Disney intends to stop paying salaries to more than 100K of its employees amid the widespread closure of amusement parks and movie theaters, as well as freezing the new filming. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are consolidating, dropping slightly after strong growth at the beginning of the week, when demand for the instrument was supported by growing uncertainty in the market. At the end of last week, the rate fell quite actively in response to Donald Trump's unveiled plan to phase out the US economy. At the beginning of the week, investors are not so optimistic. In particular, they were frightened by a record decline in oil prices, which showed the most negative dynamics in the history of observations. Additional pressure was exerted by another interest rate cut by the People’s Bank of China, which is trying to support the epidemic-affected economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 EUR/USD EUR declines slightly against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a flat trend that has formed in the short/ultra-short term. Low demand for risk provides significant support to USD, but EUR also remains stable, since most investors are not in a hurry to enter the market in conditions of high uncertainty. Macroeconomic statistics from ZEW released on Tuesday turned out to be controversial. ZEW Current Situation Survey in Germany in April fell from –43.1 to –91.5 points, which turned out to be worse than market expectations at –77.5 points. At the same time, ZEW Economic Sentiment over the same period unexpectedly increased from –49.5 to 28.2 points against the forecast of –42.3 points. ZEW Economic Sentiment in the euro area in April also rose from –49.5 to 25.2 points. GBP/USD GBP today is consolidating along with USD, trading near local lows since April 7, which the instrument managed to update the day before. The instrument has shown the strongest drop in recent times. The sharp drop in the oil market forced investors to return to "safe" assets, while the report on the British labor market published on Tuesday was left without due attention. At the same time, the report reflected an increase in Claimant Count Change in March by only 12.1K, which was significantly better than market expectations for an increase of 172.5K. However, here it is necessary to remember that the data was collected for the period ending March 12, that is, before the introduction of restrictions by the British government. Obviously, the real dynamics to date is much worse. The unemployment rate rose from 3.9% to 4.0% in February. At the same time, the February indicators of Average Earnings also showed negative dynamics, being worse than their forecasts. NZD/USD NZD shows flat dynamics in today's Asian session, consolidating near weekly lows, updated the day before. The reason for the appearance of negative dynamics in the instrument was the continuing anxiety in the market, which was strengthened many times after a sharp decline in oil prices on Monday. The panic in the market was caused by the fall of May futures for US oil to negative values for the first time in history. Later, however, the situation improved slightly. Investors were optimistic about rumors that OPEC might decide to start reducing oil production immediately, and not from May 1, as previously planned. Today, weak macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand exerts pressure on the instrument. Global Dairy Trade Price Index in March collapsed by 4.2% MoM after growth of 1.2% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at +1.5% MoM. USD/JPY USD remains stable during the Asian session against JPY. The weak growth of the instrument gave way to an equally weak decline in the first hours of Wednesday’s trading, which reflects the low volatility in the market, as well as the reluctance of investors to get rid of both currencies, which are referred to as safe haven currencies. Macroeconomic statistics from the USA published on Tuesday brought was negative, but investors stopped responding to the release of each weak indicator. US Existing Home Sales in March fell by 8.5% MoM after a 6.3% MoM growth last month. Analysts had expected negative dynamics, but expected a decrease of 8.1% MoM. XAU/USD Gold prices are relatively stable during today's Asian session, maintaining the "bearish" momentum generated the day before. On Tuesday, the instrument showed an active decline, as the growth of panic in the market due to the collapse of oil quotes provoked a wave of corrective sales. At the same time, the demand for the asset remained quite high, and new investors, by contrast, were actively buying gold, reducing the risks of their portfolios. This led to the fact that the instrument managed to win back most of its losses by the end of the trading session on Tuesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is slightly decreasing, continuing to develop the “bearish” impulse formed yesterday. Now, EUR is testing the level of 1.0800 for a breakdown, renewing local lows of April 7. Low demand for risky assets puts pressure on the position of the single currency. On Thursday, investors are awaiting a meeting of the European Council, at which, as expected, the leaders of the EU countries will discuss a plan for economic recovery after the crisis. Also, today, traders are focused on the publication of preliminary indexes of business activity in Germany, France, and the EU in April. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is slightly strengthening, consolidating after moderate growth yesterday, which allowed the pound to retreat from local lows of April 7. The market situation is developing in the same trend, and investors are currently not interested in the additional purchase of risky assets. However, the position of the US currency often also remains under pressure amid uncertain prospects and the publication of poor macroeconomic statistics from the United States. On Thursday, British investors are focused on the publication of statistics on business activity from Markit in the EU, the US, and the UK. With the opening of European markets, indices in the manufacturing and services sectors for April will be released. Analysts expect the appearance of poor data but the true volume of deceleration is still difficult to predict. AUD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is stable and its dynamics are flat in the short/ultra-short term. AUD is under pressure by Australian macroeconomic statistics on business activity. Thus, the Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.7 to 45.6 points for April against the forecast of 49.2 points. Service PMI collapsed from 38.5 to 19.6 points, while investors expected its growth to 46.6 points. The statistics on the dynamics of Australia's import/export for March was interesting. According to preliminary estimates, exports rose by 29% MoM after a decline of 5% MoM in February. Imports for the same period grew by 10%, while for February its dynamics were negative at the level of –4% MoM. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair shows flat dynamics, continuing the development of the sideways trend that was formed in mid-April. Demand for the yen remains moderately high but investors would not buy new volumes, preferring to wait for clarity in the future development of the situation. Macroeconomic statistics from Japan published on Thursday did not support the national currency but it came out better than the most negative forecasts of investors. So, Manufacturing PMI for April fell from 44.8 to 43.7 points. The index of coincident indicators for February decreased from 95.7 to 95.5 points against the forecast of growth to 95.8 points. The leading indicators index for the same period rose from 90.7 to 91.7 points, which was slightly worse than the market expectations of 92.1 points. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are relatively stable and are trading near local highs, renewed yesterday, when the instrument showed the strongest growth in the last week. Investors are still actively buying the precious metal amid a sharp collapse in oil quotes, which has strengthened the general negative background in the market and concerns about the protracted recovery of the global economy. Nevertheless, traders have also to sell the instrument to cover their losses in currency, which leads to the appearance of correction waves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 EUR/USD EUR is relatively stable against USD during today's Asian session, trading near the monthly lows updated the day before. Market sentiment is changing slightly, and investors are still prone to actively buying up USD as a safe haven. Weak macroeconomic statistics published in Europe and the USA only increase risk aversion, generating local outbursts of "bearish" activity on the instrument. On Thursday, investors were noticeably disappointed with the appearance of statistics on business activity in Germany, France and the eurozone in April from Markit. The German Manufacturing PMI fell from 45.4 to 34.4 points against the forecast of a decrease to 39 points. Services PMI collapsed from 31.7 to 15.9 points, which also turned out to be noticeably worse than expectations of 28.5 points. Composite PMI in April fell from 35 to 17.1 points, while the forecast assumed a correction only to 31 points. Composite PMI in the eurozone fell from 29.7 to 13.5 points with a forecast of 25.7 points. GBP/USD GBP shows a slight increase against USD during today's Asian session, trying once again to consolidate above 1.2350. GBP is developing an upward correction for the third consecutive session, trying to recover after a sharp decline at the beginning of the current trading week. GBP almost completely ignored the appearance of weak macroeconomic statistics on business activity in the UK yesterday. Manufacturing PMI in April fell from 47.8 to 32.9 points against the forecast of 42 points. Services PMI collapsed more: from 34.5 to 12.3 points against expectations of 29 points. In addition, CBI Industrial Trends Survey on industrial orders in April reflected deterioration in dynamics from –29 to –56 points, which turned out to be worse than expectations at –53 points. Consumer Confidence Index released today in April fell from –9 to –34 points, which turned out to be slightly better than market expectations of –40 points. NZD/USD NZD is showing a slight decline during today's Asian session, correcting after moderate growth yesterday, which allowed the instrument to retreat from local lows of April 6. Support for NZD was provided by the correction dynamics in the oil market, which provoked a decrease in USD against commodity currencies. The growth of "bearish" sentiment in USD was also strengthened by macroeconomic statistics from the US. Initial Jobless Claims in the US for the week ending April 17 increased by 4.427M, which again exceeded forecasts of 4.200M. However, the current figure was below the adjusted value for the last week at 5.237M. The US Markit Manufacturing PMI in April fell from 48.5 to 36.9 points against the forecast of 38 points. Services PMI adjusted from 39.8 to 27 points, which also turned out to be worse than expectations of 31.5 points. Exchanges in New Zealand and Australia are closed on Friday for national holidays, so trading activity at the end of the week is likely to remain restrained. USD/JPY USD continues flat dynamics of trading against JPY, trading near 107.50 for the second week in a row. It is quite difficult for investors to determine the safest asset, choosing between USD and JPY, especially given the large number of macroeconomic statistics coming out in recent days. Almost all of the data are negative, which further reduces the interest of market participants in risk. The focus of Japanese investors is the March data on consumer price indices, which, however, do not reflect the whole picture of what is happening in the Japanese economy. However, the March index excluding food and energy showed an increase of 0.6% YoY, which turned out to be slightly better than market expectations of 0.4% YoY. XAU/USD Gold prices are correcting during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs, updated the day before after a two-day rally against the backdrop of increasing uncertainty in the market. The instrument is supported by a sharp decline in oil prices at the beginning of the week, as well as the market's expectation of new stimulus measures from leading regulators and governments. On Thursday, the European Commission approved a new plan to save the European economy in the amount of EUR 540B. The support program should be launched on June 1. Periodic corrections of gold can be explained by the closure of part of the positions in order to cover investors' losses in foreign currency, while the fundamental demand for the instrument remains quite high. Today investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from the US on the dynamics of orders for durable goods in March. In addition, with the Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 EUR/USD EUR shows a slight increase against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of Friday's "bullish" momentum, which allowed the instrument to retreat from local lows since March 24. The growth of EUR is largely due to technical factors, while pressure on the instrument remains on the background of growing risks for the global economy. Additionally, EUR is weakening due to the uncertainty surrounding new stimulus measures in the eurozone economy. Last week, European leaders agreed on an initial plan to support the region’s economy, but they failed to agree on the format of this assistance: either it should be free tranches, or some kind of soft loans. Last Friday, macroeconomic statistics from Germany reflected a further decline in business sentiment in the country. GBP/USD GBP has shown strong growth during today's Asian session, updating local highs since April 21. The instrument adds about 0.50% and is actively testing the level of 1.2430 for a breakout. GBP is strengthening amid a marked increase in investor interest in risk, despite the fact that fundamentally the situation is changing slightly. The macroeconomic statistics on Retail Sales in the UK published last week turned out to be sharply negative. In March, sales decreased by 5.1% MoM and 5.8% YoY, which turned out to be noticeably worse than market expectations (–4% MoM and –4.7% YoY). Data from the USA, in turn, were slightly better. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 71 to 71.8 points in April, with a forecast of a decrease to 68 points. Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft in March grew by 0.1% MoM after a decrease of 0.8% MoM in the previous month. Experts expected a sharp drop of 6% MoM. AUD/USD AUD has shown strong growth during today's Asian session, updating local highs since March 12. The instrument began a new week with an active increase, despite the fact that the macroeconomic background remains empty, and Australian investors are only now returning to trading after a short working week. The market is gradually recovering after the collapse of oil prices at the beginning of last week, which made many traders seriously nervous. In addition, analysts are optimistic about May, expecting that a number of countries may begin to mitigate the restrictive measures introduced earlier amid the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. USD/JPY USD is falling against JPY during today's Asian session, updating local lows since April 16. USD shows correctional dynamics at the beginning of the new week across almost the entire spectrum of the market, which is mainly due to technical factors. Investors are focused today on the Bank of Japan decision on the interest rate. As expected, the Japanese regulator left the key interest rate unchanged at –0.1% per annum. In a published protocol, the Bank of Japan designated the COVID-19 epidemic as the main "bearish" risk for the Japanese economy. On Tuesday, investors expect the publication of March data on the Japanese labor market. It is expected that the Unemployment Rate in March may rise from 2.4% to 2.5%, which, however, will also not reflect the current market situation, since the Japanese government introduced severe restrictions due to the coronavirus epidemic somewhat later. XAU/USD Gold prices are declining during today's Asian session, continuing to develop a weak "bearish" impulse, formed last Friday. Analysts explain the current decline in the instrument only by technical factors, while demand for gold remains high amid worsening economic prospects due to the COVID-19 epidemic. In addition, investors expect new stimulus measures from the world's leading financial regulators, which will make the position of gold even more attractive. This week, the ECB and the Fed will hold their meetings on the interest rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted April 28, 2020 Share Posted April 28, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair moves flat, trading around the level of 1.0800. EUR remains under pressure against the backdrop of uncertain economic prospects caused by the COVID-19 epidemic, however, investor interest in risk increases as May approaches, when several countries plan to begin the gradual lifting of restrictions on the movement of citizens and the work of enterprises. The macroeconomic background of the beginning of the week was quite neutral, so investors are still very optimistic. On Tuesday, traders are focused on the publication of a study of bank lending in the EU. In the US, the level of consumer confidence and the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in April will be released. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is falling slightly, trading near the level of 1.2400, which the instrument achieved due to the active growth of the pound yesterday. At the beginning of the week, the US dollar fell against most major currencies amid expectations of the lifting of restrictions in several European countries. Also, a relaxation of the restrictions regime in May is expected in several US states, despite the apparent prematureness of such steps. There will be few key macroeconomic statistics from the UK on Tuesday. It is worth paying attention to the CBI Distributive Trades Survey for March. Analysts expect a sharp decline by 40% MoM. NZD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair is actively falling, retreating from local highs of April 20, renewed during yesterday's moderate growth. Now, NZD has lost about 0.80% and is testing a strong support level of 0.6000 for a breakdown. The market situation remains ambiguous, as investors are still frightened by uncertain prospects regarding the economic consequences of the current COVID-19 epidemic. However, the growth of optimism in the market is facilitated by the fact that several EU countries can begin to phase out the restrictions in early May. There will be no key macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand until Wednesday when the March statistics on the trade balance and the level of consumer confidence from ANZ for April are released. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair shows flat dynamics, trading near the local lows of April 15, renewed yesterday. Investor activity is gradually declining as the market expects the results of the Fed meeting at an interest rate on Wednesday. Although no changes in the monetary policy vector are predicted, it is important for traders to find out an assessment of the prospects for the American economy. Together with the decision of the regulator, a very important indicator for the US economy will also enter the market – the annual dynamics of US GDP for the first quarter of 2020. According to the most negative forecasts of analysts, the US economy will decline by 4%–6% YoY, and the decline in the second quarter will be even more significant. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are steadily declining, continuing to develop a “bearish” impulse formed at the end of last week. Investors are selling gold amid the first signs that several countries may soon begin to ease their restrictions. Also to European countries, where the dynamics of the incidence rate has improved markedly, some US states have also announced a possible easing of the regime. In turn, meetings of the ECB and the Fed, which will be held later this week, provide moderate support for gold, as the world Central Banks can again resort to additional stimulus measures in response to the worsening prospects of the global economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted April 29, 2020 Share Posted April 29, 2020 EUR/USD EUR shows strong growth against USD during today's Asian session, again making an attempt to grow, which failed yesterday. On Tuesday, EUR updated local highs since April 20, but failed to consolidate at new levels and returned to the red zone closer to the end of the afternoon session. European investors are focused on the ECB meeting, which will be held tomorrow. Prior to this, the focus of market attention will be riveted to today's Fed meeting. In addition, with the opening of the American session, traders will expect the release of quarterly data on US GDP, which will assess the extent of the slowdown in the US economy due to the widespread restrictions caused by the COVID-19 epidemic. Among macroeconomic publications on Wednesday, one should also pay attention to statistics on business activity in the eurozone and data on consumer prices for April in Germany. GBP/USD GBP shows moderate growth during today's Asian session, continuing the development of an uptrend against USD since April 22. Yesterday, GBP managed to renew local highs since April 17; however, the instrument failed to consolidate on new levels, as investors are in a hurry to minimize their risks before the Fed and ECB meetings. Today, the US regulator is expected to meet, and despite the fact that analysts do not expect significant changes in the monetary policy vector, investors are nervous because the global economy remains in a difficult situation. The US have the resources to implement various programs to support the national economy, but sometimes it seems that these measures will not be enough to prevent a sharp slowdown in production, rising unemployment and worsening economic prospects for the next few years. AUD/USD AUD is showing moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, updating local highs of March 11. The instrument adds about 0.65% and is testing the level of 0.6530 for a breakout. The pair is supported by growing cautious optimism that in May many European countries will begin to phase out the previously imposed restrictions on businesses work and the movement of citizens. In addition, investors prefer to wait for the publication of quarterly data on US GDP and the results of today's Fed meeting. Published macroeconomic statistics from Australia also provides some support to the pair. RBA Trimmed Mean CPI in Q1 2020 showed an increase of 0.5% QoQ, contrary to forecasts of a slowdown to 0.4% QoQ. YoY, the growth of the index accelerated from 1.6% to 1.8%. USD/JPY USD is falling against JPY during today's Asian session, updating the lows since March 17. Pressure on USD is exerted by the upcoming meeting of the US Fed, as well as the publication of the dynamics of US GDP for Q1 2020, which is likely to reflect a sharp slowdown in the US economy due to large-scale restrictive measures. Data from Japan worthy of attention will appear only tomorrow, when March statistics on retail sales dynamics and industrial production volumes are released. In addition, on Thursday, Japan will release March figures for the construction market. XAU/USD Gold prices show a slight increase during today's Asian session, continuing the uncertain "bullish" momentum that formed during the evening trading on Tuesday. Pressure on the instrument quotes is exerted by a slight improvement in market sentiment due to the fact that many European countries are ready to begin a phased easing of restrictions in May. Similar statements were made by some US states, despite the warnings of health experts. Another increase in the instrument was caused by the upcoming meetings of the Fed and the ECB, which will be held on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Analysts fear that regulators will not take new steps to maintain the economy, while macroeconomic publications (especially in the US) will signal a sharp deterioration in the situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair slightly falls, correcting after yesterday's strong growth, when the markets reacted to results of the Fed interest rate meeting. As expected, the regulator left it unchanged at 0.25%, while designating the COVID-19 epidemic as the main threat to the US economy. Officials were not specific in their forecasts regarding the labor market and the timing of a possible tightening of monetary policy, which significantly disappointed investors. Also, USD is under pressure of US Q1 GDP data. According to preliminary data, the US economy slowed down by 4.8% YoY after rising by 2.1% YoY in the previous period. Analysts had expected GDP to fall by 4% YoY. European investors are focused on Thursday’s ECB interest rate meeting, as well as April statistics on consumer inflation. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair shows ambiguous dynamics, trading near the local highs of April 17, renewed last Tuesday. The pound reacted slightly to yesterday's publication of disappointing US GDP data but still ended the day in the green zone due to the corrective USD sentiment, as well as uncertain results of the Fed meeting. A similar meeting of the ECB will take place on Thursday but analysts do not expect any noticeable changes. Today, US initial jobless claims data will be released. UK key statistic will appear on Friday: March data on consumer lending and April Markit Manufacturing PMI will be released. NZD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair is growing slightly, renewing local highs since March 13. Now, NZD has added about 0.20% and is preparing to test the level of 0.6150 for a breakout. The appearance of “bullish” dynamics is due to the publication of disappointing US Q1 GDP data and the results of the Fed meeting, which did not allow investors to orientate in the near future. In turn, pressure on the currency is exerted by uncertain macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand and China. Thus, the New Zealand activity forecast from ANZ for April sharply worsened from –26.7% to –55.1%. The business optimism index for the same period fell from –63.5 to –66.6 points, which, however, was better than market expectations of –69.5 points. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair falls, developing a confident “bearish” trend towards the mid-March lows in the short/ultra-short term. Investors are inclined to buy yen as a shelter asset amid disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the US and ambiguous results of yesterday's Fed meeting. Meanwhile, uncertain macroeconomic statistics from Japan does not allow the yen to grow more confidently. Thus, according to preliminary estimates, industrial production for March fell by 5.2% YoY after a decrease of 5.7% YoY for last month. Production lost 3.7% MoM after a decline of 0.3% MoM for February. Analysts had expected a stronger decrease – by 5.2% MoM. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are stable and continue to trade slightly above 1700.00. Yesterday's Fed’s interest rate decision practically did not support the instrument, nor did the appearance of US Q1 GDP data, which were worse than expected. It is likely that investors are still quite optimistic, and news of possible easing of quarantine restrictions increases their interest in risk. At the same time, it is worth noting the growing demand for the Japanese currency against the US dollar for example. Today, traders will pay attention to the ECB meeting, as well as the accompanying and following publication of a large number of key macroeconomic statistics from Europe and the United States. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 AUD/USD: technical analysis AUD/USD, H4 On the H4 chart, a downtrend is forming and an upward correction is observed. The instrument is trading near the lower border of Bollinger Bands; the indicator cloud is expanded, which indicates the likely resumption of decline in the short term, at the end of the correction. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, gradually increasing volumes; the signal line is about to cross the zero level from above, after which a signal will be formed to open short positions. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and its lines are directed horizontally. AUD/USD, D1 On the D1 chart, the uptrend is still in force. The instrument corrected to the center line of Bollinger Bands; the indicator cloud is narrowing, and a lateral trend is likely to form in the short term. MACD histogram is in the positive area. The signal line is crossing the body of the histogram from below retaining a signal for opening long positions. Stochastic left the overbought zone, having formed a sell signal; the oscillator lines are directed downwards. Key levels Resistance levels: 0.6410, 0.6445, 0.6470, 0.6485, 0.6510. Support levels: 0.6370, 0.6337, 0.6300. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted May 6, 2020 Share Posted May 6, 2020 USD/CHF: the pair is rising Current trend The pair, which decreased last week, is showing strong growth amid the recovery of USD Index quotes and weak macroeconomic statistics from Switzerland. CHF is under pressure from the negative statistics released in Switzerland yesterday. SECO Consumer Climate for Q2 2020 reached an absolute low for the entire history, amounting to –56 points, which is significantly worse than the previous quarter by –7 points. Consumer Price Index for April also turned out to be worse than expected, reaching –0.4% against the forecast of –0.1%. Data from the US came out below expected, but in the current situation, investors perceive a slight deviation from the predicted values as a positive factor. Services PMI in April fell to 26.7 points against the forecast of 27 points, while Markit Composite PMI fell to 27 points from 27.4 points, while the forecast did not suggest changes in the indicator. Support and resistance The Triangle pattern continues to form on the global chart of the asset and over the past two sessions, the price has reached the line of resistance of the pattern. Both indicators are in uncertainty, since the moment of implementation of the pattern is already close. The situation is borderline, but according to the statistics of this pattern, the probability of growth is higher. Resistance levels: 0.9760, 0.9880. Support levels: 0.9610, 0.9500. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted May 7, 2020 Share Posted May 7, 2020 GBP/USD: the pair is traded lower Current trend GBP/USD continues to show a downtrend against the backdrop of the growth of USD to a basket of world currencies. This week, a bunch of macroeconomic statistics from the UK was published. In addition to the fact that the Bank of England decided to leave the interest rate at 0.10%, the data on business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors also turned out to be very positive. Composite PMI in April was 13.8 points against the forecast of 12.9 points, while the Services PMI reached 13.4 points against expectations of 12.2. Construction PMI, which dropped to 8.2 points against expectations of 22.0 points, was the only disappointment. Although USD is gaining strength against most global currencies, US labor market data continue to disappoint. ADP Employment Change was again worse than the forecast, collapsing by 20,236K with a forecast of a decrease of 20,050K, which is the worst indicator in the history of publication of the index. Support and resistance There is almost no doubt that on the local timeframe, the reversal Head and Shoulders pattern is forming. At the moment, the price is trying to overcome the neck line of the pattern, which will be a signal for opening sell positions. Technical indicators have already reversed and issued leading signals. Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2640. Support levels: 1.2260, 1.1900. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted May 8, 2020 Share Posted May 8, 2020 Brent Crude Oil: oil continues to recover Current trend Brent crude oil prices continue to rise steadily and are held at around USD 28 per barrel. Quotes are gradually recovering due to several positive factors. The increase in oil prices is promoted, first of all, by a gradual recovery in demand for oil products from the main importer, China. Yesterday, China published data on the level of imports for April, which amounted to –14.2% against expectations of –11.2%, but Chinese customs reported an increase in oil product purchases in April to 10.4M barrels per day instead of 9.7M in March. The second factor was the gradual reduction of oil reserves in storage. According to API, weekly reserves totaled 8.400M barrels, instead of 10.000M a week earlier. According to EIA, stocks are declining at an even faster pace: the figure was 4.590M barrels, with a forecast of 7.759M, down from 8.991M barrels a week earlier. Support and resistance The asset continues to be inside the wide downward channel and for the fourth day has been held near the resistance line. The AO oscillator acted as a leading one and issued a buy signal, having crossed the zero level from below. But the Alligator trend indicator is in no hurry: fast EMAs, although they are directed upwards, have not yet crossed the signal line. Resistance levels: 32.40, 38.70. Support levels: 23.50, 17.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 Bitcoin: technical analysis Current trend The BTC coin continues to be traded within the framework of the global Expanding Formation pattern and at the moment the formation of the next rising wave inside it is ending. In the local format, at today’s morning trading, the price overcame the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which could mean the beginning of a deep correction downwards. The Alligator indicator EMAs, although in a state of a global buy signal, are starting to reverse. The histogram of the AO oscillator is in the positive zone, but has begun to form bars with a downtrend. Support and resistance Resistance levels: 8700.00, 9960.00. Support levels: 7928.00, 7293.00, 6657.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.