MikhailLF Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Morning Market Review 2020-01-15 EUR/USD EUR shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against USD during today's Asian session, developing a flat trend in the ultra-short term. The pair strengthens by about 0.05%, receiving support after the publication of mixed macroeconomic statistics from the US. Consumer Price Index in the US in December grew by 0.2% MoM, slowing down from the previous value of 0.3% MoM. Core Consumer Price Index in December slowed from 0.2% MoM to 0.1% MoM. In annual terms, however, the price index rose in December from 2.1% YoY to 2.3% YoY. During the day, investors expect publication of statistics on industrial production in the euro area in November. In addition, a preliminary trade agreement between the United States and China is expected to be signed today. GBP/USD GBP shows ambiguous dynamics during today's Asian session, remaining under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics and uncertain prospects after Brexit in late January. Additional pressure on the instrument is exerted by the likelihood of a decrease in interest rates by the Bank of England in the very near future. At the beginning of the week, investors expected a 50% chance of a rate cut in January, but full-fledged changes in the monetary policy vector will probably occur closer to Q2 2020. Today, traders expect the publication of data on Consumer and Industrial inflation in the UK in December. In addition, the markets will be interested in a statement by the representative of the Bank of England Michael Saunders. NZD/USD NZD declines slightly during today's Asian session, developing a weak "bearish" momentum formed at the beginning of the current trading week. Investors hesitate amid the publication of mixed macroeconomic statistics and expect new drivers to appear. The data from New Zealand published yesterday were controversial. NZIER Business Confidence index in Q4 2019 decreased by 21% QoQ after falling by 40% QoQ in Q3. The number of Building Permits issued in November decreased sharply by 8.5% MoM after a 1.3% MoM decrease in the previous month. Analysts counted on the appearance of positive dynamics (+2.1% MoM). Food Price Index in December also showed a decrease of 0.2% MoM, continuing to develop the negative dynamics of the previous month (–0.7% MoM). Experts counted on zero growth. USD/JPY USD is falling against JPY during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs, updated the day before. The instrument fell by 0.08% and is trying to consolidate below 110.00. In addition to strengthening technical factors, the publication of mixed macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation from the US contributes to the USD decline. Today, investors are waiting for the signing of a trade agreement between the United States and China, which may provide moderate support for USD. Despite the fact that the market took into account the fact of achieving preliminary consensus in a trade dispute between the parties, the formal completion of this process will have a positive impact on demand for risk. XAU/USD Gold prices are showing moderate growth during today's Asian session, retreating from local lows of January 3, updated the day before. The instrument grew by more than 0.3% and is trying to consolidate above the level of 1550.00. Asset growth is mainly driven by technical factors, as well as corrective sentiment in USD amid the publication of mixed macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation. In turn, the growth of stock markets, as well as the pending signing of a trade agreement between the United States and China, put pressure on the position of gold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Morning Market Review 2020-01-16 EUR/USD EUR shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against USD during today's Asian session, being located near the level of 1.1150. Investors are taking a lead from the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from the euro area and the long-awaited signing of the first phase of the trade agreement between the US and China. Weak data from Europe did not prevent moderate growth of EUR. Industrial Production in the euro area in November decreased by 1.5% YoY after a decrease of 2.6% YoY a month earlier. Analysts had expected decline by 1.1% YoY. In monthly terms, production grew by 0.2% MoM, but did not reach forecasts of 0.3% MoM. In October, the indicator decreased by 0.9% MoM. The euro area Trade Balance in November fell from 24B to 19.2B euros, which also turned out to be worse than the expectations of 21.2B euros. Today, traders are focused on the publication of statistics on Consumer Inflation from Germany, as well as the release of the ECB meeting minutes and a speech by Christine Lagarde. GBP/USD GBP is showing slight growth against USD during today's Asian session, adding about 0.07%. The instrument has been developing correctional dynamics since Tuesday, updating local lows of December 26. The growth of the currency pair is largely facilitated by technical factors, while the macroeconomic background from the UK remains predominantly negative. Moreover, investors are concerned about the imminent Brexit and possible measures to support the British economy, which the Bank of England will have to resort to. The statistics on consumer inflation was published yesterday in the UK. Consumer Price Index in December showed zero dynamics after an increase of 0.2% MoM in November. Analysts had expected it to maintain the same growth rate. In annual terms, inflation slowed down from 1.5% YoY to 1.3% YoY, which also turned out to be worse than expectations. AUD/USD AUD is showing uncertain growth against USD during today's Asian session. The instrument strengthens by 0.09% and is trying to consolidate above the level of 0.6900. The pair is supported by the fact that a trade agreement was signed between the United States and China, which can help restore global economic growth. The parties agreed on the mutual protection of intellectual property, a sharp increase in sales of goods from the United States to China, as well as to abandon currency manipulation. In addition, Washington agreed to reduce to 7.5% a series of duties on Chinese goods in the amount of USD 120 billion. Statistics from Australia provides some support to AUD on Thursday. Investment Lending for Homes in November grew by 2.2% YoY after an increase of 1.4% YoY last month. Home Loans for the same period increased by 1.8% YoY, slightly decreasing from the previous value of 2.0% YoY. Analysts had expected growth by 0.4% YoY only. USD/JPY USD shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against JPY during today's Asian session, continuing to consolidate after updating local highs on Tuesday. USD is located near the level of 110.00, while not making any attempts to test it for a breakout. Published macroeconomic statistics from Japan has a mixed effect on the instrument. Core Machinery Orders in Japan in November grew by a record 18% MoM after a decrease of 6% MoM in October. Experts expected a much more moderate growth of 3.2% MoM. YoY, the indicator increased by 5.3% YoY as opposed to the decline of 6.1% YoY last month. In turn, the Producer Price Index in December slowed from 0.2% MoM to 0.1% MoM, which turned out to be worse than the neutral forecast of analysts. XAU/USD Gold is trading with almost flat dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating after yesterday's moderate growth. The instrument was supported by concerns about a trade agreement between the US and China, which subsequently did not materialize. Markets were worried by statements by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who noted that import duties on Chinese goods would continue until the second phase of the trade agreement was signed. In fact, Washington decided to reduce the existing tariffs by 2 times, not cancelling them completely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Morning Market Review 2020-01-20 EUR/USD EUR is relatively stable against USD during today's Asian session and is located near local lows, updated at the end of last week. Last Friday, EUR showed a steady decline, despite the publication of neutral statistics on Consumer Inflation, which fully met market expectations. Consumer Price Index in the euro area in December rose by 0.3% MoM after a decline of 0.3% MoM in November. In annual terms, prices remained at the same rate of growth (+1.3% YoY). Traders almost completely ignored weak statistics from the United States. Industrial Production in the USA in December decreased by 0.3% MoM after an increase of 0.8% MoM in the previous month. Experts expected a decrease of 0.2% MoM. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell slightly from 99.3 to 99.1 points in January, which turned out to be worse than neutral forecasts. GBP/USD GBP is showing slight growth against USD during today's Asian session. The instrument adds about 0.09%, testing the psychological support level of 1.3000 for a breakout. In addition to a number of technical factors, the pound is supported by the publication of data from the UK on House Prices. In January, Rightmove House Price Index showed an increase of 2.3% MoM after a decline of 0.9% MoM last month. YoY, the growth of the index accelerated from 0.8% to 2.7%. It is likely that the trading activity on the instrument at the beginning of the week will remain reduced due to the fact that US markets are closed on Monday due to the national holiday. On Tuesday, investors are waiting for the publication of UK labor market data. AUD/USD AUD is showing moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, recovering from a sharp decline at the end of the previous week. The instrument adds about 0.14%, approaching the level of 0.6900. The growth of the pair is mainly due to technical factors. In addition, investors take a lead from weak statistics from the US on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, which was ignored last Friday. On January 23, traders expect the publication of the December report on the Australian labor market, but forecasts for it are still very negative. It is expected that employment growth may slow down by more than 2 times, and the Unemployment Rate will again increase from 5.2% to 5.3%. USD/JPY USD shows moderate growth against JPY during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a powerful "bullish" impulse of January 6. The instrument adds about 0.05%, testing the level of 110.20 for a breakout. Pressure on JPY is again exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Industrial Production in Japan in November fell by 8.2% YoY after falling by 8.1% YoY in the previous month. However, investors did not expect a significant improvement in the dynamics of the indicator. In monthly terms, the production rate decreased by 1% MoM after a decline of 0.9% MoM in October. Capacity Utilization in November fell by 0.3% after a decrease of 4.5% last month. Investors expected an increase of 0.7%. XAU/USD Gold prices are relatively stable during today's Asian session and continue developing uncertain "bullish" trend, trading near weekly highs. Good macroeconomic statistics from China, as well as the conclusion of a trade agreement between the USA and China, put significant pressure on the instrument, as well as on the demand for safe assets in general. Last Friday, China reported a 6% YoY growth in GDP for the Q4 2019, which fully met market expectations. Meanwhile, Industrial Production in December grew by 6.9% YoY, accelerating from the previous value of 6.2% YoY. Analysts expected a slowdown in production growth to 5.9% YoY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Morning Market Review 2020-01-22 EUR/USD EUR is trading near zero against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating at new local lows of December 24, updated the day before. Strong macroeconomic statistics from ZEW released on Tuesday had virtually no effect on EUR. German ZEW Current Situation index in January rose from –19.9 to –9.5 points with a forecast of –13.5 points. ZEW Economic Sentiment in Germany for the same period has significantly strengthened from 10.7 to 26.7 points with a forecast of growth of only 15 points. The euro area's ZEW Economic Sentiment index in January also showed strong positive dynamics, rising from 11.2 to 25.6 points, while experts expected a decrease to 5.5 points. GBP/USD GBP is declining slightly during today's Asian session, losing about 0.07%. The instrument is corrected after moderate growth yesterday, which, in turn, was caused by relatively positive data on employment in the country. Claimant Count Change in December remained unchanged at 14.9K with a forecast of an increase to 22.6K. Average Earnings Including Bonus in November also kept the previous growth rates (3.2% 3MoY), while experts expected a slowdown to 3.1% 3MoY. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 3.8%. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of data on Public Sector Net Borrowing in the UK for December. In addition, traders are waiting for statistics from the Confederation of British Industrialists on Industrial Orders for January. AUD/USD AUD has a "bearish" trend against USD during today's Asian session, updating local lows of December 11. The instrument loses about 0.10%, slightly departing from new lows. Moderate pressure on AUD is exerted by macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Westpac Consumer Confidence in Australia in January decreased by 1.8% after the decline of 1.9% last month. Experts expected a reduction of only 0.8%. Today, traders' attention will be focused on the publication of the US data, as well as on speeches at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Australian statistics will not appear until Thursday, when the December report on the labor market comes out. USD/JPY USD shows strong growth against JPY during today's Asian session, recovering the positions lost the previous day, when JPY increased in reaction to the publication of updated forecasts for GDP growth from the Bank of Japan. The instrument adds about 0.18%, testing the level of 110.00 for a breakout. Inflation in Japan remains extremely low, and the regulator is still looking for ways to stimulate the economy. The Bank of Japan emphasizes that monetary policy will remain soft until it reaches target inflation rates, but recognizes the growing risks associated with a protracted period of low interest rates. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the US on the dynamics of Retail Sales and Existing Home Sales. Japanese data will appear on Thursday, when the December statistics on the dynamics of Imports and Exports are published. XAU/USD Gold prices are decreasing during today's Asian session, losing about 0.35%. The asset returns to the negative trend after controversial trading the day before, when the position of the instrument was supported by the growth of concerns about the spread of coronavirus in China. In addition, investors are responding to continuing uncertainty in the Middle East, fearing the development of new local conflicts. A possible impeachment of Donald Trump also affects the position of the instrument. In turn, support for gold is provided by the approach of the Chinese New Year, as in the pre-holiday period the demand for the precious metal traditionally increases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Morning Market Review 2020-01-23 EUR/USD EUR shows a moderate decline against USD during today's Asian session, again returning to the "bearish" trend after a short growth the day before. Ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the USA put some pressure on USD on Wednesday. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in December showed a decrease from 0.41 to –0.35 points, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of –0.30 points. At the same time, investors were optimistic about Existing Home Sales indicator. The indicator grew by 3.6% MoM in December after the decline by 1.7% MoM a month earlier. The forecast assumed an increase in sales dynamics by only 1.2% MoM. Investors are focused on the ECB decision on the interest rate followed by a press conference. At the moment, no changes are expected in the vector of European monetary policy; however, comments by officials will continue to be very important. GBP/USD GBP is trading slightly lower against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after confident growth the day before. GBP reacted positively to reports of the approval of the Brexit bill by the House of Lords. Now the document should be signed by Queen Elizabeth II and be ratified by the European Parliament, after which the UK will officially withdraw from the EU. Starting from February, the parties will resume the active phase of negotiations to form a new free trade agreement, but until then, the UK is obliged to comply with EU laws. AUD/USD AUD is showing strong growth against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from local lows of December 11, updated the day before. The instrument adds about 0.35%, testing the level of 0.6880 for a breakout. AUD is supported by strong results on the December report on the Australian labor market. Employment Change s. a. in December grew by 28.9K with a forecast of growth of only 15K. In the previous month, employment growth was 38.5K. At the same time, Part-Time Employment Rate increased by 29.2K, while Full-Time Employment decreased by 0.3K. The December Unemployment Rate unexpectedly dropped from 5.2% to 5.1%. Consumer Inflation Expectations in January rose from 4% to 4.7%, which was significantly higher than market forecasts of 3.8%. USD/JPY USD is falling against JPY during today's Asian session, continuing to develop a corrective downward momentum formed two days ago. The instrument is losing about 0.20% and is being traded near 109.50. The development of a downtrend in the pair is almost not hindered by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Japanese Exports went down by 6.3% YoY in December after the decline by 7.9% YoY in the previous month. Experts expected –4.2% YoY. Imports for the same period lost 4.9% after a decrease of 15.7% in November. The indicator also turned out to be significantly worse than forecasts, which assumed a decrease of 3.4% YoY. At the same time, for example, All Industry Activity Index in November increased by 0.9% MoM after falling by 4.8% MoM in October. XAU/USD Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session, waiting for new drivers to appear on the market. Demand for risk is balanced by poor macroeconomic statistics and the expectations of new mitigations from leading world regulators. Today, investors are focused on the ECB decision on the interest rate. Despite the fact that no adjustments to the monetary policy are expected from the European regulator, comments by officials can set the tone for trading for the next few days. The first meeting of the US Fed this year is scheduled for January 28-29, but no radical decisions are expected from it either. The US economy shows very good performance, so it is likely that the Fed will maintain a wait-and-see attitude. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Morning Market Review 2020-01-24 EUR/USD EUR is relatively stable against USD during today's Asian session. The pair is consolidating near the level of 1.1050 after a steady decline the day before, which led to the updating of local lows from December 2, 2019. Pressure on EUR on Thursday was exerted by the speech of the ECB President Christine Lagarde, who noted the success of the European economy, but pointed out the continuing downward risks. According to the official, the weak dynamics of production and trade still impedes more confident growth. At the end of this week, investors expect the publication of statistics on business activity from Europe and the USA, so trading activity is likely to remain increased. GBP/USD GBP is weakening against USD, again returning to the "bearish" trend after rising since the beginning of the week. At the moment, the decline is due to technical factors; however, the fundamental reasons for the growth of the instrument are becoming less and less. Optimism regarding the final approval of the Brexit deal is quickly waning, and investors are increasingly worried about the process of working out a new trade agreement between the UK and the EU. Today, investors expect publication of statistics on business activity in the UK and the US. According to current forecasts, the British Manufacturing PMI may grow from 47.5 to 48.9 points, and Services PMI can increase from 50 to 51 points. NZD/USD NZD is showing slight growth against USD during today's Asian session, trading near weekly highs, updated the day before. Moderate support for the instrument is provided by statistics on consumer inflation in New Zealand for Q4 2019. In quarterly terms, the index slowed down from 0.7% QoQ to 0.5% QoQ, which was only 0.1% QoQ better than market expectations. The annual data reflected a steady increase from 1.5% YoY to 1.9% YoY against the forecast of 1.8% YoY. In turn, weak Credit Card Spending data is holding back the growth of the instrument. In December, the indicator decreased from 4.4% YoY to 3.4% YoY, while the forecast assumed a decrease to 4.3% YoY. USD/JPY USD shows a slight increase against JPY during today's Asian session, correcting after an active decline the day before, which led to the renewal of local lows of January 9. USD is adding about 0.07%, testing the levels of 109.50–109.60 for a breakout. Investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from Japan today. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in January rose from 48.4 to 49.3 points against the forecast of an increase to only 48.7 points. National Consumer Price Index rose from 0.5% YoY to 0.8% YoY in December, which was twice as good as market expectations. National CPI ex Food and Energy accelerated in December from 0.8% YoY to 0.9% YoY, coming close to an important 1% mark. XAU/USD Gold prices are showing a slight decline during today's Asian session, correcting after uncertain growth the day before. Support for the instrument is provided by an increase in the demand for safe assets amid continuing uncertainty. Investors are concerned about the new aggravation of the situation in the Middle East and the unclear prospects for the development of trade relations between the United States and China. The UK also adds uncertainty, which, after Brexit at the end of January, should begin rather lengthy negotiations to develop new terms of trade with the European Union. Finally, coronavirus outbreaks in China ahead of Chinese New Year celebrations also force investors to avoid unnecessary risks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Morning Market Review 2020-01-27 EUR/USD EUR shows flat trading during today's Asian session, slightly correcting after an active decline last Friday, when the instrument managed to update local lows of December 2. EUR declined amid the publication of good statistics on business activity from Germany, which was left without due attention. Markit Manufacturing PMI in January rose from 43.7 to 45.2 points against a forecast of 44.5 points. Services PMI over the same period increased from 52.9 to 54.2 points, which also turned out to be better than the expectations of 53 points. Composite PMI in January strengthened from 50.2 to 51.1 points against the forecast of 50.5 points. Today, there are not many interesting statistics expected, therefore it is possible that the pair will continue to develop ambiguous trading dynamics. German Ifo Business Sentiment data are expected to be published today. GBP/USD GBP is slightly declining against USD during today's Asian session, developing a "bearish" momentum formed the day before. The instrument loses about 0.15%, testing for the level of 1.3050 for a breakdown. UK macroeconomic statistics released last Friday showed little support to GBP. Manufacturing PMI in the UK in January showed an increase from 47.5 to 49.8 points against the forecast of 48.9 points. Services PMI for the same period showed a steady increase from 50 to 52.9 points, which turned out to be significantly better than the expectations of 51 points. NZD/USD NZD shows a "bearish" trend in trading against USD during today's Asian session, updating local lows of December 18, 2019. The pair opened with a negative gap and is losing about 0.30%, trading near the level of 0.6570. Macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand and the US published at the end of last week turned out to be quite positive; however, NZD remains under the pressure of growing uncertainty. In Q4 2019, New Zealand's Consumer Price Index increased by 0.5% QoQ and 1.9% YoY, which was better than market expectations of 0.4% QoQ and 1.8% YoY. In turn, the US data were positive due to a moderate increase in the Services PMI. In January, the index increased from 52.8 to 53.2 points, which turned out to be better than the forecasts of 52.9 points. At the same time, Markit Manufacturing PMI over the same period decreased from 52.4 to 51.7 points against the forecast of 52.5 points. USD/JPY USD shows strong growth against JPY during today's Asian session. The pair quickly wins back its losses on a sharp gap down at the opening of trading. USD added about 0.21% and is preparing to test the level of 109.10 for a breakout. JPY remains quite strong amid growing uncertainty in the market. The second phase of trade negotiations between the US and China promises to be quite tense, as well as negotiations between the UK and the EU after the completion of the Brexit process in late January. An additional source of nervousness in the market remains China, where authorities are struggling with the spread of coronavirus. Finally, investors are expecting a meeting of the US Fed this week, and despite the fact that rate cuts are not expected at the end of January, official comments will have a significant impact on market dynamics. XAU/USD Gold prices are falling slightly during today's Asian session, correcting after the opening with the gap up. The instrument is supported by rising demand for safe assets, as the market is seriously concerned about the spread of coronavirus in China. Gold is also supported by correctional sentiment on US stock markets. In turn, macroeconomic statistics from the USA published last Friday helps to reduce the instrument. The US economy showed an increase in Composite PMI in January from 52.7 to 53.1 points, which turned out to be better than market expectations of 52.5 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Morning Market Review 2020-01-30 EUR/USD EUR shows growth against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after a five-day decline, which led the instrument to updating local lows of November 29, 2019. The growth of EUR is largely due to technical factors, while the fundamental background remains ambiguous. Macroeconomic statistics on Pending Home Sales published in the United States turned out to be worse than market expectations, but was lost against the background of the Fed meeting on the interest rate. In December, the indicator decreased by 4.9% MoM after growth of 1.2% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at 0.5% MoM. Today, investors expect the publication of a large number of interesting macroeconomic statistics from Europe and the United States. German data on the Unemployment Rate for December will be the first to be released, after which the euro area will unveil a block of indicators on business sentiment for January. GBP/USD GBP is trading near zero against USD during today's Asian session, halting the development of the "bearish" trend that formed a week ago. GBP remains under pressure amid growing uncertainty associated with the UK's exit from the EU. Brexit should be completed before the end of January, but then the parties will continue active negotiations as part of the conclusion of a new trade agreement, which will determine how Great Britain will access European markets. A transitional period will operate during 2020, and the UK will continue to comply with European laws. Traders today are focused on the meeting of the Bank of England on the interest rate. It is expected that the monetary policy parameters will remain unchanged; however, the number of votes for a rate reduction may increase from 2 to 3. Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report is also expected to be published. NZD/USD NZD is showing an active decline against USD during today's Asian session, updating local lows from December 4, 2019. The instrument loses about 0.25%, preparing to test the level of 0.6500 for a breakdown. The decline of the instrument proceeds against the background of the publication of good macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand. Export volumes from New Zealand in December rose from 5.21B to 5.54B dollars. Imports for the same period decreased from 6B to 5B dollars. Trade Balance in December showed an increase of 547M dollars MoM, after a decrease of 791M MoM in November. USD/JPY USD is falling against JPY during today's Asian session, continuing to develop the downward momentum that formed the day before. The instrument loses about 0.08%, testing the level of 108.90 for a breakdown. Despite the fairly strong USD, the yen continues to be in demand amid growing uncertainty. In particular, the market is still afraid of the spread of coronavirus, which negatively affects economic activity in China, which has just begun to recover from protracted trade wars with the United States. The Fed’s decision, published the day before, in general, fully met market expectations. The rate remained unchanged, and the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, said that operations to purchase securities will continue at least until Q2 2020. At the same time, Powell, as before, did not agree with the phrase "continued quantitative easing". Inflation, according to the head of the Fed, can reach the target level of 2% in the near future. XAU/USD Gold prices show moderate growth during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bullish" momentum formed the day before. The instrument adds about 0.15%, testing the level of 1580.00 for a breakout. Quotes are supported by continued market anxiety regarding the spread of coronavirus. In addition, the instrument was supported by expectations of the Fed meeting on the interest rate. Despite the fact that in early January, the regulator did not expect any changes in monetary policy, the market is trying to find clues about further prospects for the interest rate. In turn, pressure on quotes has a steady growth in US stock markets amid strong corporate reporting. The day before, Apple reported revenue growth, reporting the highest quarterly profit in its history. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Morning Market Review 2020-01-31 EUR/USD EUR is slightly decreasing against USD during today’s Asian session, correcting after active growth the day before, which brought the instrument to local highs of January 24. EUR is losing about 0.06%, testing the level of 1.1020 for a breakdown. Macroeconomic statistics from Europe published yesterday turned out to be mixed. Services Sentiment in the euro area in January fell from 11.3 to 11 points against the forecast of 11.2 points. The Business Climate Indicator for the same period increased from –0.32 to –0.23 points; however, it turned out to be worse than expectations of –0.19 points. Unemployment Rate in the euro area in December fell from 7.5% to 7.4%. At the end of the current trading week, investors expect the publication of January statistics on consumer inflation in the euro area. It is expected that price growth at the beginning of the month will slightly accelerate from 1.3% YoY to 1.4% YoY. GBP/USD GBP is trading near zero against USD during today’s Asian session, maintaining the “bullish” momentum formed the day before. GBP responded with active growth to the publication of the Bank of England meeting minutes. The British regulator kept the interest rate at the previous level of 0.75%, and the volume of the asset purchase program was maintained at the level of 435B pounds. At the same time, the distribution of votes for maintaining the rate and for its reduction also remained the same. 2 members of the regulator spoke in favor of easing monetary policy, while 7 voted for its preservation. Until the end of 2020, investors are still counting on a rate reduction. Now traders are focused on the Brexit process. Britain should leave the EU today, January 31, at 23:00 London time, after which it will begin a broad discussion with the EU in the framework of concluding a free trade agreement. AUD/USD AUD maintains a downward direction of trading against USD during today’s Asian session, trading near the local lows, updated the day before. The instrument loses about 0.13% and approaches the level of 0.6700. The market is focused on macroeconomic statistics from Australia on the dynamics of Producer Prices and the volume of Private Sector Credit in December. In Q4 2019, production inflation increased by 0.3% QoQ, slowing down from the previous value of 0.4% QoQ. In annual terms, prices slowed from 1.6% YoY to 1.4% YoY. Private Sector Credit volumes in December did not change and amounted to the previous 0.2% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator accelerated from 2.3% YoY to 2.4% YoY. Minor support for the instrument is also provided by Chinese data. Services PMI in January increased from 53.5 to 54.1 points with a neutral outlook. USD/JPY USD is showing moderate growth against JPY during today’s Asian session, correcting after the predominantly “bearish” trading session. The pressure on JPY is provided by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Tokyo CPI excluding Fresh Food slowed in January from 0.8% YoY to 0.7% YoY with a neutral outlook. Retail Trade in December fell by 2.6% YoY after a decrease of 2.1% YoY a month earlier. The forecast assumed a decrease of 1.8% YoY. Industrial Production in December grew by 1.3% MoM after a decline of 1% MoM in November. Analysts had expected an increase of 0.7% MoM. In annual terms, production maintained negative dynamics at the level of –3% YoY, having improved from the previous value of –8.2% YoY. XAU/USD Gold prices are relatively stable during today’s Asian session, but retain a weak downward momentum from the previous trading session. Gold continues to be supported by the risk of the spread of coronavirus, which to date has already led to the death of more than 170 people. Strengthening of the instrument is also facilitated by not the most stable positions in USD, which is prone to correction after the January Fed meeting on rates. Today, traders are focused on the statistics from the United States on the dynamics of Personal Income and Spending for December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Morning Market Review 2020-02-03 EUR/USD EUR is decreasing against USD during today’s Asian session, correcting after sharp growth at the end of last week, which brought the instrument to new local highs of January 23. EUR is losing about 0.07%, testing the level of 1.1080 for a breakdown. The instrument showed growth, despite the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics last Friday. The euro area's GDP in Q4 2019 increased by 0.1% QoQ, slowing down from the previous value of 0.3% QoQ. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.2% QoQ. In annual terms, GDP growth slowed from 1.2% YoY to 1.0% YoY, which also turned out to be worse than market expectations of 1.1% YoY. In addition, the Core Consumer Price Index rose by 1.1% YoY in January, correcting downwards from the previous 1.3% YoY with a forecast of 1.2% YoY. GBP/USD GBP declines slightly against USD during today's Asian session, correcting down after a confident "bullish" end of the past week. Last Friday, GBP showed strong growth, updating local highs from January 7. At the same time, there were few fundamental reasons for positive dynamics. GBP was most supported by Consumer Credit statistics. December credit volumes rose from GBP 0.653B pounds to GBP 1.218B, which was significantly better than the expectations of 0.914B. Mortgage Approvals for the same period increased from 65.514K to 67.241K with a forecast of 65.7K. Investors are focused on statistics on business activity in the UK and the USA for January. AUD/USD AUD is growing against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from record lows updated as a result of a steady "bearish" trend last week. The instrument adds about 0.1% and is testing the level of 0.6700 for a breakout. Investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from Australia today. Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI rose from 49.1 to 49.6 points in January, with a neutral outlook. AiG Manufacturing Performance Index in January fell from 48.3 to 45.4 points. Building Approvals issued in December fell by 0.2% MoM after 11.8% MoM growth in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline by 3% MoM. Currently, traders are preparing for the RBA meeting at the interest rate, which will be held on February 4. The rate is expected to remain unchanged on the level of 0.75%. USD/JPY USD is growing against JPY during today's Asian session, retreating from local lows of January 8, updated at the end of last week. The instrument adds about 0.13%, testing the level of 108.50 for a breakout. The growth of the pair is promoted by technical factors, as well as the publication of not the most successful macroeconomic statistics from Japan and China. Japan's Manufacturing PMI from Jibun Bank in January fell from 49.3 to 48.8 points with a neutral forecast. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI for the same period fell from 51.5 to 51.1 points, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 51.3 points. With the opening of the American trading session, investors are awaiting the publication of data on business activity from the United States. XAU/USD Gold prices are steadily declining during today's Asian session, retreating from updated local highs of January 8. The positive dynamics, supported by the growth of fears regarding the further spread of the coronavirus, gave way to a technical correction, while the fundamental growth factors of the instrument are still very strong. WHO recognized the epidemic as an emergency, which, coupled with the beginning of massive travel restrictions, poses new economic difficulties. Today, investors expect the publication of statistics on the US Manufacturing PMI in January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Morning Market Review 2020-02-04 EUR/USD At the opening of trading this week, the EUR/USD pair was actively declining, partially offsetting a steady growth at the end of last week. The development of the “bearish” dynamics was due to the strengthening of the US currency across the entire spectrum of the market, while the macroeconomic background provided little support to the euro. Thus, EU Markit Manufacturing PMI for January rose from 47.8 to 47.9 points with a neutral forecast. However, US PMI statistics were even better. US Markit Manufacturing PMI for January rose from 51.7 to 51.9 points with a constant forecast. ISM Manufacturing PMI for January rose from 47.8 to 50.9 points, breaking the level of 50. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is growing slightly, trying to recover from a sharp decline the day before. Now, the instrument has added 0.12% and is trying to consolidate above the psychological level of 1.3000. The pound fell sharply amid growing concerns about the upcoming EU-UK trade deal. Brexit has only ended, and Boris Johnson had already threatened to abandon any EU conditions and evade trade negotiations, which should determine the UK access parameters to the European market. The market did not react to macroeconomic statistics published on Monday. Manufacturing PMI for January rose from 49.8 to 50.0 points with a constant forecast. AUD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is growing steadily, retreating from the lows since October 2019. Now, the instrument has added about 0.5%, testing the level of 0.6725 for a breakout. The growth of the instrument is facilitated by the results of the RBA meeting, where, as expected, the rate was left at 0.75%. In addition, the price is supported by technical factors and a sharp collapse in the Chinese stock market, which is prone to panic amid the spread of coronavirus. Yesterday’s macroeconomic statistics from Australia were ambiguous. ANZ Job Advertisements for January increased by 3.8% after a decrease of 5.7% last month. At the same time, Building Approvals for December fell by 0.2% MoM after an increase of 10.9% MoM last month. Analysts had expected a decrease of 3% MoM. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is growing moderately, continuing to develop the “bullish” momentum formed yesterday. A severe collapse in Chinese stock markets is supporting the dollar, while further instrument growth is limited by rising tensions over the spread of coronavirus. The position of the American currency was also supported by strong US macroeconomic statistics on business activity. So, ISM Manufacturing PMI for January rose from 47.8 to 50.9 points against the forecast of 48.5 points. The Japanese Manufacturing PMI from Jibun Bank for January fell from 49.3 to 48.8 points with a neutral forecast. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are falling slightly, continuing to develop a “bearish” trend formed yesterday. At the beginning of the week, the weakening of the instrument was due to the steady strengthening of the American currency against the background of a sharp collapse of Chinese stock markets. In addition, the market is showing an increase in demand for risky assets due to the support measures provided by the Central Bank of China to its economy. The regulator lowered interest rates and filled the markets with additional liquidity, trying to minimize the damage from trade restrictions and partially closed state borders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Morning Market Review 2020-02-05 EUR/USD EUR is showing a moderate decline against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bearish" impulse formed at the beginning of the week. However, EUR is only approaching the levels of the opening of trading last Friday, which ended with a steady growth of the instrument. EUR is under pressure from the increasing uncertainty in the market due to the spread of coronavirus. In addition, investors react negatively to a possible worsening of trade relations between the EU and the UK, as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson took a rather tough stance and urged to ignore compliance with a number of EU requirements during the transition period (until the end of 2020). During the day, European investors are expecting the publication of statistics Markit Services PMI. A little later, December data on Retail Sales will be released, as well as a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde will take place. GBP/USD GBP shows ambiguous trading during today's Asian session, consolidating after a slight increase the day before. GBP updated its local lows on Tuesday, reaching 1.2940, below which the instrument last traded on December 24, 2019, but managed to recover closer to the end of the afternoon session. On Tuesday, GBP was slightly supported by the data on the UK Construction PMI. In January, the index rose from 44.4 to 48.4 points with a forecast of growth of only 46.6 points. In turn, a mixed prospect of trade negotiations between the UK and the EU exert pressure on GBP, as Boris Johnson took a rather tough stance regarding compliance with a number of EU requirements in the transition period. NZD/USD NZD is trading near zero during the Asian session on February 5, sluggishly playing back ambiguous statistics on employment from New Zealand. The day before, the instrument managed to reverse the existing "bearish" trend and recorded growth for the first time in 5 trading sessions, which was mainly due to technical factors. Also, moderate support for the pair was provided by data on Building Permits published in New Zealand. In December, the number of permits increased by 9.9% MoM after a decrease of 8.4% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline by 0.3% MoM. New Zealand employment statistics released during today's Asian session indicated a decline in Unemployment Rate from 4.1% to 4%, while the market expected it to rise to 4.2%. At the same time, Employment Change in Q4 2019 showed zero dynamics after an increase of 0.2% QoQ in Q3. Investor forecasts suggested an increase in employment by 0.3% QoQ. Participation Rate over the same period decreased from 70.4% to 70.1%. USD/JPY USD is again trading lower against JPY during today's Asian session, slightly offsetting the sharp increase of the previous day. JPY collapsed amid growing fears of the spread of coronavirus, as well as due to new measures by China to support the economy, which generally contributed to increasing interest in risk. Additional support to USD on Tuesday was provided by data from the USA on Factory Orders. In December, the volume of orders increased by 1.8% MoM after a decrease of 1.2% MoM last month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 1.2% MoM. Today, investors are focused on Japanese statistics on Services PMI. Jibun Bank Services PMI rose from 49.4 to 51 points in January, which, however, turned out to be slightly worse than market expectations of 52.1 points. XAU/USD Gold prices are recovering during today's Asian session, retreating from new local lows updated the day before. The instrument adds about 0.15% and is about to test the level of 1560.00 for a breakout. The decline in the asset yesterday was due to the strengthening of USD, as well as new measures to support the economy, which China adopted in connection with the further spread of the coronavirus. Positive macroeconomic statistics from the USA on Factory Orders and Economic Optimism index contributed to increased demand for risk, but overall market sentiment remains depressed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 Morning Market Review 2020-02-07 EUR/USD EUR is trading near zero against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating again after another decline yesterday, which led to the renewal of local lows of October 9, 2019. Investors are disappointed with the publication of Thursday's weak macroeconomic statistics from Germany, and take a lead from the speech of the ECB head Christine Lagarde, from which it became clear that the European regulator is more and more inclined towards new measures to support the euro area's economy. Factory Orders in Germany in December fell by 2.1% MoM after a decline of 0.8% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.6% MoM. In annual terms, the volume of orders fell by 8.7% YoY, which also turned out to be noticeably worse than market expectations of –6.0% YoY. At the end of the week, traders expect publication of data on industrial production in Germany for December. There is no hope that the statistics will be better than their forecasts, and therefore, most likely, EUR will remain under pressure. With the opening of the American session, the focus will shift to the publication of the January report on the US labor market. GBP/USD GBP slightly strengthened against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after a two-day decline, which led to the updating of local lows from the end of December 2019. As before, uncertain prospects for concluding a trade agreement between the UK and the EU during 2020 remain the main negative factor for GBP. The position of Boris Johnson is not shared by everyone, but so far he remains adamant and urges him to put the national interests of Great Britain at the forefront. Meanwhile, British Secretary of State for International Trade Liz Truss said that the UK expects to conclude a mutually beneficial trade agreement with the US, Britain’s second largest trading partner. AUD/USD AUD continues to decline against USD during today's Asian session, offsetting the growth of the instrument at the beginning of the week. The pressure on the pair is exerted by not the most successful macroeconomic statistics from Australia, as well as by the relatively strong USD. The instrument loses about 0.19%, preparing to test the level of 0.6710 for a breakdown. AiG Services Index in Australia went down from 48.7 to 47.4 points in January. In addition, today Australia released the minutes of the last meeting of the RBA on the interest rate, which managed to provide some support to the instrument. Among other things, investors focused on good prospects regarding the growth of the Australian economy in the near future. In 2020, GDP should exceed +2.75%, and in 2021 it may exceed 3%. USD/JPY USD is showing a slight decline against JPY during today's Asian session, correcting after strong growth since the beginning of the week, which led to the renewal of local highs on the instrument of January 22. USD decline is technical in nature, as traders take their long profits before the weekend. Meanwhile, macroeconomic statistics from Japan remain mixed. Overall Household Spending in December 2019 decreased by 4.8% YoY after a decrease of 2% YoY in November. Analysts had expected a slight improvement in the dynamics of the indicator and a decrease of only 1.7% YoY. Coincident Index in December remained at the previous level of 94.7 points against the forecast of growth to 95.9 points. Leading Economic Index for the same period increased from 90.8 to 91.6 points, which turned out to be better than neutral market forecasts. XAU/USD Gold prices show flat dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating near three-day local highs after active growth the day before. The instrument was supported on Thursday by the market's concern over the further spread of coronavirus and the consequences that the epidemic has for the global economy. News of China’s reduction in import tariffs on a number of US products under the trade agreement signed in January was virtually ignored. On Friday, investors focus on the publication of the January report on the US labor market. Given the strong results shown by the previously published ADP employment report, expectations are likely to be inflated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Morning Market Review 2020-02-10 EUR/USD EUR is trading up against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from updated local lows of October 8, 2019 and recovering from a solid "bearish" rally last week. The development of the downtrend in EUR at the end of last week was facilitated by macroeconomic statistics from Europe and the US. Investors were disappointed to find data on Industrial Production in Germany. December production volumes decreased by 3.5% MoM after rising by 1.2% MoM in the previous month and with a forecast of a decline of only 0.2% MoM. In annual terms, production fell by 6.8% YoY, also significantly exceeding its own forecasts of –4% YoY. At the same time, USD was supported by good results of the January report on the US labor market. Nonfarm Payrolls grew by 225K, exceeding the forecasts of 160K. Average Hourly Earnings in January also accelerated from 3% to 3.1% YoY. GBP/USD GBP shows a slight increase against USD during today's Asian session, recovering from the "bearish" end of last week. The instrument adds about 0.13% and is trying to consolidate above 1.2900. The pair’s growth is mainly due to technical factors, while GBP remains under pressure from the mixed prospects for EU-UK trade negotiations. In addition, markets are wary of possible interventions by the Bank of England, which is likely to support the national economy during a period of possible weakness. Minor support for GBP today is provided by statistics from China. Chinese Consumer Price Index in January rose by 1.4% MoM after zero dynamics in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.8% MoM. In annual terms, the growth of consumer inflation accelerated from 4.5% YoY to 5.4% YoY, significantly exceeding its own forecasts of 4.9% YoY. AUD/USD AUD is showing strong growth against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from new record lows since 2009, updated at the end of last week. The instrument adds about 0.35%, testing the level of 0.6700 for a breakout. In addition to a number of important technical factors, good macroeconomic statistics from China provide strong support for AUD. Last Friday, the Chinese economy showed a sharp increase in exports (9.1% YoY), and today it supports consumer sentiment with consumer inflation statistics. In January, Consumer Price Index rose by 1.4% MoM and by 5.4% YoY, which was significantly better than market expectations of 0.8% MoM and 4.9% YoY. Today, interesting statistics from Australia are not expected, but on Tuesday there will be data on the dynamics of Australia's Home Loans for December. USD/JPY USD is showing uncertain growth against JPY during today's Asian session, again reversing upwards after a correctional decline at the end of last week. The yen is moderately supported by the Japanese macroeconomic data. Bank Lending in Japan in January showed an increase of 1.9% YoY after an increase of 1.8% YoY last month. In addition, the downtrend in the instrument is facilitated by corrective sentiment in USD prevailing in the market. USD ended last week with strong growth against a number of its competitors, so investors are interested in fixing long profits. XAU/USD Gold prices show ambiguous trading dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating after updating local highs of February 4. Support for the instrument at the end of last trading week was provided by corrective sentiment on the main stock exchanges, while investors expressed their concerns about the further spread of coronavirus and its negative economic consequences. A more active rise in gold prices was hindered by strong USD, which received support from a strong US labor market report for January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Morning Market Review 2020-02-11 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair shows flat dynamics, consolidating near new local lows since October 2019, renewed yesterday. EUR is still weakening against the growing dollar, which is in demand amid continued market anxiety regarding the spread of coronavirus. Pressure on the euro is also exerted by the ambiguous prospects of EU-UK trade negotiations, during which the parties should work out a mechanism for UK access to European markets after Brexit. Monday's macroeconomic statistics did not add optimism to the markets. Thus, industrial production in Italy in December fell by 2.7% MoM and 4.3% YoY, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations of –0.4% MoM and –0.8% YoY. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading near zero, waiting for new drivers to appear on the market. Yesterday, the instrument grew moderately but the increase was due only to technical factors. During the day, British investors expect the publication of a large block of macroeconomic statistics from the UK. In particular, traders will be interested in December data on the dynamics of industrial production, the country's overall trade balance for December, as well as Q4 2019 GDP. Also, later, the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney will speak in the British Parliament. As for the market forecasts, they do not allow us to expect a significant increase in the pound. Q4 2019 GDP is expected to slow from +0.4% QoQ to +0.0% QoQ. AUD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is actively growing, continuing the development of the correction impulse formed yesterday. Now, the instrument has added about 0.37%, testing the 0.6700 the level of for a breakout. The Australian dollar is supported by positive macroeconomic statistics from China and Australia. So, on Monday, traders positively met consumer price growth in China in January. In annual terms, the inflation index accelerated from +4.5% YoY to 5.4% YoY, exceeding most of its forecasts. Today, the Australian currency is positively affected by the national statistics on Home Loans. The total volume of issued mortgage loans for December grew by 3.5% after a decline of 0.8% last month. Analysts had expected growth of only 0.7%. Investment borrowing for the construction of houses in December accelerated from +2.5% to +2.8%. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is growing, recovering to local highs, renewed at the end of the last trading week. Demand for the yen is supported by growing alarming sentiment in the market but investors currently trust the dollar more. In addition, published macroeconomic statistics from Japan are often ambiguous. So, on Monday, February 10, the released Eco Watchers event forecast index in January fell from 45.5 to 41.8 points with a positive forecast for growth to 47.1 points. The current situation index for the same period, on the contrary, grew stronger than forecasts: from 39.7 to 41.9 points (growth was forecast to reach 40.5 points). There will be a lack of key macroeconomic statistics from Japan during the day, so investors will probably concentrate on data from the USA, where, in particular, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak in the US Congress. XAU/USD Since the start of the new Forex week, gold prices have been rising moderately, supported by the continuing threats of the further spread of coronavirus. In turn, the strong position of the US currency prevents a sharp renew of local maximums on the instrument. The dollar index is kept close to four-month highs, and also retains prospects for further strengthening. Investors are focused on a two-day speech by the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell in Congress. Powell is expected to shed light on the monetary policy of the regulator in the near future. In January, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, citing moderate US economic growth and strong labor market data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Morning Market Review 2020-02-12 EUR/USD EUR shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against USD during today's Asian session, but again tends to decline after an uncertain yesterday's growth. The reason for the appearance of a weak uptrend on Tuesday was in technical factors, while the fundamental picture remains negative. USD currently looks more attractive to buy, as investors are increasingly interested in high-yield assets. The speeches of the heads of the ECB and the Fed were in the spotlight yesterday. Christine Lagarde concentrated on the negative factors, which once again put pressure on EUR. The head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, was more optimistic, noting, however, that the regulator will continue to purchase treasury bonds in Q2 2020. During the day, the ECB representative Philip Lane is expected to speak, as well as the release of December statistics on industrial production in the euro area is planned. GBP/USD GBP is trading against USD with ambiguous dynamics during today's Asian session, trying to develop a weak upward momentum formed at the beginning of the week. The instrument adds about 0.06%, testing the level of 1.2960 for a breakout. GBP was supported yesterday by statistics from the UK on GDP dynamics, while the rest of the data were controversial. UK GDP in December increased by 0.3% MoM after a decline of 0.3% MoM in the previous month. The indicator came out slightly better than forecasts of an increase of 0.2% MoM. In annual terms, GDP grew by 1.1% YoY, slowing down from the previous value of 1.2% YoY and significantly exceeding the forecast of 0.8% YoY. The focus of British investors on Wednesday is the annual Autumn Forecast Statement, which will contain updated forecasts and a brief overview of the budget for the next fiscal year. AUD/USD AUD is again trading with steady growth against USD, updating local highs from February 6. The instrument adds about 0.22%, testing the level of 0.6730 for a breakout. AUD is supported by a slight improvement in market sentiment, contributing to an increase in demand for risky assets. Australian macroeconomic statistics yesterday turned out to be heterogeneous, but on the whole it contributed to the further development of the uptrend in the instrument. Home Loans in Australia rose by 3.5% in December after a decline of 0.8% in the previous month. Investors expected an increase of 0.7%. Investment Lending for Homes for the same period increased by 2.8% after an increase of 2.5% in November. Westpac Consumer Confidence reflected a 2.3% increase in February after a 1.8% decline in January. Experts predicted an increase in the index by 1.4%. USD/JPY USD has shown uncertain growth against JPY since the beginning of this week; however, at the moment, the instrument is again trading below 109.90. Macroeconomic statistics from the US published on Tuesday turned out to be mixed, and two-day speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress came to the fore. Powell noted that the regulator does not plan to resort to negative interest rates and will continue to use traditional regulatory tools. In particular, it was decided to continue the purchase of treasury bonds in Q2 2020. XAU/USD Gold prices show ambiguous trading dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating after a correctional decline the day before. The emergence of a "bearish" trend in the instrument was facilitated by the growth of European stock exchanges, as well as a decrease in demand for safe assets amid falling new cases of coronavirus infection. However, the threat of an expanding epidemic remains, which supports gold as a safe haven asset. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 Morning Market Review 2020-02-13 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is slightly falling, trading near record lows since May 2017, renewed yesterday. The euro is under pressure amid rising market concerns about a possible ECB intervention in monetary policy. The regulator is under intense political pressure, which, together with poor macroeconomic statistics and increased trade confrontation with the UK, could lead to lower interest rates in early spring. Macroeconomic statistics published on Wednesday reflected a sharp decline in EU industrial production for December by 2.1% MoM and 4.1% YoY, which was significantly worse than market expectations of –1.6% MoM and –2.3 % YoY On Thursday, investors are focused on the statistics from Germany on consumer inflation. The market expects prices to fall by 0.6% MoM in January and maintain the previous growth rate of +1.7% YoY. The most important statistics for the week will be Friday's publications on the dynamics of GDP in Germany and the EU. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading horizontally, consolidating after corrective growth at the beginning of the week. Now, the pound has lost about 0.04% and is testing the level of 1.2950 for a breakdown. The British currency is still moderately supported by optimistic macroeconomic data released on Tuesday. UK GDP data indicated that the British economy managed to avoid a recession, which reduces the risks of new stimulus measures by the Bank of England. At the same time, trade negotiations with the EU remain in the spotlight, which may well come to a standstill and lead to negative consequences for the economies of both parties. Until the end of the week, there will be few interesting macroeconomic statistics from the UK, so traders are focused on publications from the USA. On Thursday, in particular, the publication of January statistics on consumer inflation in the United States is expected. NZD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair is falling, correcting after yesterday’s sharp increase. Now, the New Zealand dollar has lost about 0.20% and is testing the level of 0.6450 for a breakdown. Yesterday, NZD showed the strongest growth in the last two months, reacting to the RBNZ decision to exclude the possibility of lowering interest rates in the near future. The regulator also informed the market that it expects acceleration of economic growth in the second half of 2020 amid improving global trade conditions and measures of budget support for the national economy. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is falling, offsetting the moderate growth of the instrument on the eve. USD is under moderate pressure of Wednesday’s macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Thus, the monthly budget report indicated a deficit growth from $–13.3 billion to $–33 billion, which was significantly worse than market expectations of $–11.5 billion. In turn, the yen receives little support from Japanese data. The producer price index for goods for January rose by 0.2% MoM after rising by 0.1% MoM last month. The domestic price index for corporate goods in January accelerated from +0.9% YoY to +1.7% YoY, ahead of forecasts of +1.5% YoY. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are strengthening, recovering from a moderate decline since the beginning of the week. The instrument is supported by correctional sentiment in the US currency, while gold remains under pressure amid growing demand for risk. Now, the rate has added about 0.37% and is preparing to test the level of 1575.00 for a breakout. Pressure on quotes is also exerted by the weakening of the coronavirus epidemic in the world. The number of new infections is declining markedly, and markets hope that the epidemic will gradually end by March-April this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted February 14, 2020 Share Posted February 14, 2020 Morning Market Review 2020-02-14 EUR/USD EUR continues to trade lower against USD during today's Asian session, updating record lows of April 2017. Pressure on EUR is exerted by revised data on the dynamics of the distribution of coronavirus, indicating a sharp increase in the number of cases, which, coupled with weak macroeconomic indicators of the euro area, creates dismal prospects for the region's economy. However, statistics released on Thursday on consumer inflation from Germany met the expectations of analysts. Consumer Price Index in January decreased by 0.6% MoM and increased by 1.7% YoY. Today, investors are focused on statistics on the dynamics of GDP in Germany and the euro area, which will have a significant impact on the instrument. GBP/USD GBP slightly strengthened against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bullish" momentum formed at the beginning of the week. GBP is supported by increased chances of a possible interest rate cut by the Bank of England after Boris Johnson appointed Rishi Sunak as Chief Secretary to the Treasury. It is expected that the new minister will adjust the fiscal policy and next month may introduce new measures of tax incentives that will help stabilize the economic situation and attract new investments. NZD/USD NZD declines slightly against USD during today's Asian session, developing the correctional sentiment formed yesterday when the instrument retreated from its local highs of February 5. The pressure on NZD intensified after the publication of new data by the WHO on the number of patients with coronavirus. Due to a change in the calculation methodology, the market saw a sharp surge in the number of infected, which led to an increase in previous fears about the further spread of the epidemic. Meanwhile, the pair was slightly supported by data published in New Zealand on the Food Price Index. In January, prices increased by 2.1% MoM after a decline of 0.2% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected positive trend to emerge, but counted on 0.2% MoM growth. USD/JPY USD shows near-zero dynamics against JPY during today's Asian session, consolidating near 109.80. Demand for USD and JPY again rose significantly after the publication of updated statistics on the number of patients with coronavirus, which frightened investors with a sharp surge in the number of infected. It is curious that macroeconomic statistics from the USA practically did not support USD. At the same time, the Consumer Price Index in January accelerated from 2.3% YoY to 2.5% YoY, which turned out to be better than market expectations. Consumer Price Index Excluding Food and Energy in January rose by 0.2% MoM and 2.3% YoY, which also turned out to be slightly better than forecasts of 0.2% MoM and 2.2% YoY. XAU/USD Gold prices are falling slightly during today's Asian session, correcting after quite active growth the day before, which was triggered by the appearance of updated statistics of the infected and dead of coronavirus in China. The development of positive dynamics in the instrument was facilitated by corrective sentiment in USD, which retreated from its local highs against a basket of currencies. In turn, the pressure on gold is exerted by significantly lower expectations of new stimulation measures from the Fed. On Wednesday, speaking in Congress, Jerome Powell outlined a fairly strong position for the regulator regarding the immediate economic prospects and conveyed part of his confidence in the future to a worried market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Morning Market Review 2020-02-17 EUR/USD EUR shows the flat dynamics of trading against USD during today's Asian session, located close to the record lows of April 2017, updated at the end of last week. Last Friday, investors were focused on ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the euro area and the US, which, given the lowered demand for risk, did not play in favor of EUR. The euro area's GDP in Q4 2019 increased by 0.1% QoQ, slowing down from the previous value of 0.3% QoQ. In annual terms, GDP has slowed down from 1.2% YoY to 0.9% YoY, with the forecast of 1.0% YoY. At the same time, Employment Change in Q4 2019 accelerated its growth from 0.1% QoQ to 0.3% QoQ, and the trade balance in December increased its surplus to the level of EUR 22.2B. During the day, investors are waiting for the outcome of the Eurogroup meeting, and also expect to receive new comments from the ECB representative Philip Lane. GBP/USD GBP is trading slightly up against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating near 1.3050. Investors continue to take a lead from the appointment of a new UK finance minister, who is primarily expected to introduce new fiscal stimulus. Changes in tax policy, in turn, reduce the risk that the Bank of England will be forced to intervene in the situation, which makes GBP attractive for purchase. UK macroeconomic statistics released today slightly supports GBP. Rightmove House Price Index rose by 2.9% YoY in February accelerating from 2.7% YoY. Traders will be focused on the labor market statistics from the UK on Tuesday. NZD/USD NZD is showing a moderate decline during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bearish" impulse formed last Thursday. The instrument loses about 0.08%, testing the level of 0.6430 for a breakdown. Published on Monday, macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand was largely ignored by investors. Visitor Arrivals in New Zealand in December fell by 0.2% YoY after a decline of 3.5% YoY a month earlier. Analysts had expected a significant increase of 4% YoY. ANZ Monthly Inflation Gauge in January reflected a 0.6% MoM and 3.2% YoY increase in prices, which turned out to be slightly better than the previous values of 0.4% MoM and 3.2% YoY. USD/JPY USD shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against JPY during today's Asian session, consolidating near the level of opening at 109.81. Investors focus on weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan, which puts significant pressure on JPY. Japan's GDP for Q4 2019 collapsed by 1.6% QoQ after growth of 0.4% QoQ in the previous period. Analysts had expected negative dynamics, but only at –0.9% QoQ. Industrial production in December fell by 3.1% YoY after a decrease of 3% YoY in November. Capacity Utilization rate in December fell by 0.4% after a decrease of 0.3% in November. The forecasts suggested an increase by 0.2%. XAU/USD Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session and are consolidating near local highs at 1584.81, updated at the end of last week. Support for the instrument is still provided by the risk of the further spread of the coronavirus epidemic, which reduces the prospects for global economic growth. Additional support for gold at the end of last week was provided by mixed US macroeconomic statistics. In particular, investors were disappointed with the pace of decline in Industrial Production in January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair moves flat but at the opening, the price renewed three-year lows, which indicates that the pressure on the instrument maintains. At the beginning of the week, trading activity was low due to the lack of key macroeconomic publications and closed US markets due to President's Day. On Tuesday, investors expect publication of statistics from ZEW on business sentiment in Germany and the EU. Analysts' forecasts are rather ambiguous, however, given the poor statistics of Germany last week, there is no additional support for the euro expected. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading in different directions, consolidating near the key support level of 1.3000, which the instrument actively tested at the beginning of the week. GBP is supported by expectations of fiscal changes in the UK from the country's new finance minister, Rishi Sunak. The keynote of Sunak’s policy should be an increase in government spending, which will contribute to the growth of the British economy. Today, traders wait for the publication of the UK labor market data for December-January but analysts' forecasts are pessimistic. In particular, a slight slowdown in average wage growth is expected in December. At the same time, the number of Claimant Count Change for January may increase sharply from 14.9K to 22.6K. AUD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is actively falling, renewing local lows from February 11. Now, the instrument has lost about 0.33%, testing the level of 0.6700 for a breakdown. Earlier this week, the price was trying to grow after the news that official Beijing promised to introduce new measures to support the economy. In particular, China is expected to cut corporate taxes, as well as increase government spending. Key macroeconomic statistics from Australia and the United States are not expected on Tuesday, so the focus will probably remain on the old drivers. The Australian Q4 2019 wage index, as well as Westpac leading economic indicators index for January will be released tomorrow. Traders are focused on Thursday, when the January labor market report will be published. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is falling, returning to the “bearish” dynamics after an uncertain growth at the beginning of the week. Now, the dollar has lost about 0.15%, testing the level of 109.70 for a breakdown. Yesterday's growth of the instrument was facilitated by poor statistics from Japan. Thus, the country's Q4 2019 GDP fell by 1.6% QoQ after an increase of 0.4% QoQ in the previous period. Analysts had expected a decline of 0.9% QoQ. The volume of industrial production in Japan in December fell by 3.1% YoY, accelerating the fall from the previous value of –3% YoY. In monthly terms, the pace of production slowed down from +1.3% MoM to +1.2% MoM. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, the price for gold is growing moderately, recovering from yesterday's decline in the instrument, which was due to the announcement of new measures to support the Chinese economy. However, investors are still cautious, and the demand for shelter assets remains relatively high. From official Beijing, markets expect another reduction in corporate taxes and increased government spending, which should spur the growth of a slowing economy. In addition, China is taking new measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus. In particular, last weekend, the Chinese government said that banks will be allowed to issue only banknotes that have been disinfected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 EUR/USD EUR shows a slight correctional growth against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from new three-year lows, updated the day before. The reason for Tuesday's strengthening of the "bearish" sentiment was the extremely weak macroeconomic statistics on Economic Sentiment in Germany from ZEW. ZEW Current Situation index in February fell from –9.5 to –15.7 points with a forecast of a decrease to –10.3 points. ZEW Economic Sentiment index for the same period fell from 26.7 to 8.7 points with a forecast of 21.5 points. ZEW Economic Sentiment index in the euro area also sharply decreased from 25.6 to 10.4 points, contrary to forecasts of growth to 30 points. During the day, investors expect publication of information on the Current Account balance and Construction Output in the euro area for December. Closer to the end of the afternoon session, the focus will shift to the publication of the FOMC Meeting Minutes on the interest rate. GBP/USD GBP is trading with ambiguous dynamics during today's Asian session, continuing to consolidate near 1.3000. Short-term support for the instrument is provided by the expectation of positive changes in the fiscal policy of the UK government after the appointment of the new Minister of Finance Rishi Sunak. Sunak confirmed his intention to introduce the new state budget on March 11, which strengthened optimism in the market. Macroeconomic statistics published on Tuesday turned out to be contradictory and, on the whole, contributed to the development of negative dynamics for the instrument. In December, Average Earnings Including Bonus slowed down from 3.2% 3MoY to 2.9% 3MoY, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 3% 3MoY. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate remained at the previous level of 3.8%, and Claimant Count Change in January increased from 2.6K to 5.5K, which is significantly lower than market expectations of 22.6K. AUD/USD AUD is showing moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after a sharp decline the day before. The instrument adds about 0.13%, testing the level of 0.6700 for a breakout. Strengthening the "bearish" mood was facilitated by recent statements by Apple representatives who expressed doubts about the ability to implement their original sales plan, set three weeks ago. Apple cites a reduction in production and a decrease in demand in China due to the continued spread of coronavirus. Today's Australian macroeconomic statistics provide insignificant support to the instrument. Westpac Leading Index in January showed an increase of 0.05% MoM after rising 0.01% MoM in the previous month. USD/JPY USD is rising against JPY during today's Asian session, approaching the local highs updated on December 12. USD adds about 0.15%, testing the level of 110.00 for a breakout. The development of the uptrend in the instrument today is facilitated by the publication of quite weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Machinery Orders in December fell by 12.5% MoM and 3.5% YoY after rising by 18% MoM and 5.3% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected a decrease of 9% MoM and 1.3% YoY. Japanese Exports went down by 2.6% YoY in January after decline by 6.3% YoY in the previous month. Imports for the same period decreased by 3.6% YoY after a decline of 4.9% YoY in December. The total Trade Deficit in January reached 1312.6B Japanese yen. XAU/USD Gold prices are consolidating during today's Asian session near the new local highs (1600.00) after the active growth of the instrument the day before. Demand for the asset increased markedly on Tuesday after a warning from Apple that the company was unlikely to implement its sales plan due to a reduction in production in China amid the continued spread of coronavirus. On Wednesday, investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from the USA on Construction dynamics and Producer Price Indices for January. In addition, markets are awaiting the publication of the latest Minutes of the FOMC meeting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is trading in a downward direction, returning to decline after a corrective growth the day before. The strengthening of the euro was mainly due to technical factors, as the single currency remains strongly oversold and is trading near three-year lows. The macroeconomic background, however, did not contribute to the growth of the instrument. Thus, EU Construction Output for December fell by 3.7% YoY after rising by 1.4% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected an increase of 1.4% YoY. In monthly terms, the production fell by 3.1% MoM after a slight increase of 0.74% for November. During the day, European investors expect the publication of information on the dynamics of producer prices for January in Germany. In addition, the ECB will publish the Account of Monetary Policy Meeting. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading near zero, consolidating near local highs since February 11, which were achieved due to a steady GBP decline the day before. The British currency almost completely ignored the strong national statistics on the dynamics of consumer inflation. Instead, investors focused on the prospects for EU-UK negotiations and discussed upcoming fiscal changes and increased government spending. The consumer price index for January sharply accelerated from +1.3% YoY to +1.8% YoY, which was better than market expectations of +1.5% YoY. In monthly terms, however, consumer inflation decreased by 0.3% MoM after December's zero dynamics. Analysts predicted a 0.4% YoY decrease in the index. On Thursday, traders are focused on the UK retail sales statistics for January, as well as the publication of the CBI Industrial Trends Orders for February. NZD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair is significantly reduced, renewing local lows since November 13. Now, NZD has lost about 0.38% and is preparing to test the level of 0.6350 for a breakdown. The currency is falling amid the publication of optimistic macroeconomic American statistics. Yesterday, traders were pleased by a confident increase in the producer price index and an improvement in the housing market. Building Permits for January increased by 9.2% MoM after a decrease of 3.7% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected a decrease of 0.1% MoM. In addition, investors are still wary of a slowdown in the global economy due to continued threats of the spread of coronavirus and a weakening Chinese economy. However, the market appreciated the efforts made by Beijing to contain the epidemic. On Thursday, it became known that the Central Bank of China decided to reduce the interest rate by 10 basis points to 4.05%. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair shows flat dynamics, consolidating near new record highs, renewed the day before, when the yen showed its strongest decline in 6 months. JPY is under pressure by a poor national macroeconomic statistics, which may indicate the onset of a recession in the country. Data released on Monday reflected a sharp decline in Japan's Q4 2019 GDP by 6.3% YoY after an increase of 1.8% YoY in the previous month. In quarterly terms, GDP lost 1.6% QoQ after a slight increase of 0.4% QoQ earlier. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, the price of gold is slightly reduced, retreating from local highs, updated due to yesterday’s moderate growth of the instrument. Although the market positively assesses China’s efforts to contain the spread of coronavirus, concerns about negative economic consequences remain, which provides support for shelter assets. Also, uncertain prospects around a possible reduction in the interest rate of the US Federal Reserve positively affect the quotes. The minutes of the Fed meeting published yesterday reflected a certain split in its administration, however, the regulator continues to believe in a strong labor market, and therefore the risks of lowering the rate in the foreseeable future remain insignificant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted February 24, 2020 Share Posted February 24, 2020 EUR/USD EUR shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after an active growth of the instrument last Friday. The reason for the appearance of active uptrend, in addition to a number of technical factors, was good data on the euro area's business activity for February. Markit Manufacturing PMI rose from 47.9 to 49.1 points with a forecast of a decline to 47.5 points. Markit Services PMI for the same period strengthened from 52.5 to 52.8 points, which also turned out to be better than market expectations. Composite Manufacturing PMI in February rose from 51.3 to 51.6 points with a forecast of 51 points. German data turned out to be positive as well. Markit Manufacturing PMI rose sharply from 45.3 to 47.8 points, while the market expected a decline to 44.8 points. On Monday, traders expect the publication of IFO statistics on business optimism in Germany for February. Otherwise, given the rather meager economic calendar, a rather quiet start to the new week is expected. GBP/USD GBP is trading near zero during today's Asian session, consolidating near local highs, updated at the end of last week, when it managed to show corrective growth. Macroeconomic statistics published on Friday from the UK and the US turned out to be mixed, but only strengthened the technical factors for the oversold pound. Markit Services PMI in the UK declined from 53.9 to 53.3 points in February, which was 0.1 points worse than expectations. At the same time, Manufacturing PMI over the same period unexpectedly increased from 50 to 51.9 points with a negative forecast of a decrease to 49.7 points. As for American statistics, it turned out to be noticeably worse. Markit Manufacturing PMI fell in February from 51.9 to 50.8 points, while the same indicator in the services sector fell from 53.4 to 49.4 points, breaking the 50-point barrier. NZD/USD NZD shows a slight increase against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from new local lows updated at the end of last week. The instrument opened with a negative gap, and so far only technical factors serve as a reason for its short-term growth, while macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand leave much to be desired. In Q4 2019, Retail Sales in New Zealand slowed from 1.7% QoQ to 0.7% QoQ. Retail Sales ex Autos for the same period increased by 0.5% QoQ after an increase of 1.9% QoQ in the previous period. Credit Card Spending in January increased slightly from 3.5% YoY to 3.7% YoY, but did not reach the expected values of 5.1% YoY. During the day, investors expect publication of Chinese statistics on the dynamics of industrial production and retail sales for January. USD/JPY USD is again trading higher against JPY during today's Asian session. USD wins back part of the positions lost at the opening and is preparing to consolidate above 111.60–111.70. Investors assess the prospects for the Bank of Japan to make changes in monetary policy amid the spread of coronavirus outside of China and the release of disappointing statistics on the state of the Japanese economy. Last Sunday, the head of the Japanese regulator, Haruhiko Kuroda, again noted the readiness of the Bank of Japan for the most decisive action in order to offset the consequences of the epidemic for the Japanese economy. XAU/USD Gold prices show steady growth during today's Asian session, updating record highs of February 2013. The reason for maintaining the positive dynamics on the instrument is the previous fears regarding the further spread of the coronavirus epidemic. Investors are worried about a new outbreak outside of China, particularly in South Korea. Traders also evaluate the prospects for lowering rates and other monetary changes that leading regulators can make. First of all, the focus is on the People's Bank of China, the Bank of Japan and the ECB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is growing moderately, developing a correctional impulse formed at the end of the last trading week. The “bullish” dynamics of the instrument is facilitated by technical factors since the European currency has been oversold for a very long time. The instrument is supported by positive macroeconomic statistics from Germany, which slightly diluted the statistical negativity from the EU. Thus, the IFO business optimism index for February rose from 96.0 to 96.1 points against the forecast of a decrease to 95.3 points. The IFO economic expectations index for the same period rose from 92.9 to 93.4 points, which also was better than analysts' forecasts of 92.9 points. The indicator for assessing the current situation for February fell from 99.2 to 98.9, which, however, again turned out to be better than expectations at 98.6 points. During the day, investors expect the publication of updated statistics on German 209 Q4 GDP. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is slightly strengthening, being corrected after an uncertain yesterday’s decline. Investors expect new drivers to appear on the market since there was a lack of interesting publications at the beginning of the week, and the risks of a slowdown in the global economy amid the development of the coronavirus epidemic are gradually decreasing. On Tuesday, a block of macroeconomic statistics from the US on the dynamics of housing prices for December will be released. In addition, traders expect the publication of the level of consumer confidence and the speech of the representative of FOMC Richard Clarida. The UK will release CBI's retail report. For February, the sales volume is expected to grow from 0% MoM to +4% MoM. AUD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is growing, continuing to develop the “bullish” momentum formed at the end of the last trading week. Monday's trading also ended with moderate growth of the instrument, however, due to the negative gap at the opening, the Australian dollar was not able to renew its local highs. Now, the instrument has added about 0.20%, testing the level of 0.6615 for a breakout. In addition to a number of technical factors, the price is supported by some improvement in the situation with coronavirus. Despite the increasing incidence of infection outside of China, official statistics from the PRC indicate that the peak of the epidemic has been overcome. In this regard, the Chinese authorities issued an appeal calling for the restoration of economic activity in areas with low risk of infection. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is growing slightly, consolidating near 111.00, after an active decline for two consecutive trading sessions. Now, the dollar has added about 0.07% and mainly due to the technical factors. Monday’s US macroeconomic statistics were ambiguous. Thus, the index of national activity of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in January rose slightly from –0.51 to –0.25 points against the forecast of a decrease to –0.92 points. At the same time, the index of business activity in the industrial sector of the Dallas Federal Reserve in February grew only from –0.2 to 1.2 points, which was significantly worse than market expectations of 11.8 points. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are slightly falling, being corrected after yesterday’s “bullish” surge, thanks to which the instrument renewed highs of January 2013. The appearance of correctional dynamics is due to the Chinese authorities’ calls to gradually restore economic activity in the country against the background of a noticeable stabilization of the situation with new coronavirus diseases. At the same time, the market is concerned about new outbreaks of infections outside of China, particularly in South Korea, Italy, and Iran. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 EUR/USD EUR shows negative dynamics against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs since February 12, updated the day before. EUR is noticeably pressured by the weakening of the European economy amid continuing risks of the spread of the coronavirus epidemic. An outbreak in Italy threatens to exacerbate negative economic results in the country, reduce tourist popularity and push the economy towards a technical recession. A possible recession threatens the largest economy in Europe as well. At the same time, macroeconomic statistics from Germany published on Tuesday turned out to be neutral. According to updated data, German GDP for Q4 2019 increased by 0% QoQ and 0.4% YoY. Excluding seasonal adjustments, the German economy added 0.3% YoY. GBP/USD GBP is falling against USD during today's Asian session, again correcting after the growth the day before, which led to the renewal of local highs of February 19. The instrument loses about 0.10%, testing the level of 1.2980 for a breakdown. The growth of GBP on Tuesday was facilitated by the correctional sentiment against USD, while there are still not many fundamental reasons for the recovery of the pound. CBI Distributive Trades Survey published yesterday indicated an increase in sales volumes in February of only 1.0% MoM, while investors had expected an increase of 4% MoM. BRC Shop Price Index (it was released during today's Asian session) accelerated its decline from –0.3% YoY to –0.6% YoY. AUD/USD AUD shows a decline against USD during today's Asian session, returning to record lows, updated earlier this week. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by negative macroeconomic publications from Australia. Construction Work Done in Q4 2019 sharply decreased by 3% QoQ after a slight increase of 0.4% QoQ in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected negative dynamics, but expected a decrease of 1.0% QoQ. Negativity from Australia contrasts markedly with a number of optimistic US publications coming out on Tuesday. According to December results, the US Housing Price Index increased by 0.6% MoM after rising by 0.3% MoM in the previous month. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices accelerated over the same period from 2.5% YoY to 2.9% YoY, ahead of its forecasts (2.8% YoY). USD/JPY USD significantly strengthens against JPY during today's Asian session, correcting after the collapse of quotations for three consecutive trading sessions. The surge in demand for JPY is associated with an aggravation of the situation around the spread of coronavirus after official statistics indicated an increase in the incidence outside of China. The current positive dynamics of the instrument is due to technical factors, as well as to the publication of good data from the USA on the dynamics of Housing Prices, which are likely to support the general increase in inflation in the country. Japanese investors are focused on statistics from Japan, which will appear this Friday. The data on the labor market, retail sales and industrial production dynamics, as well as the pace of housing construction started in early 2020, are expected to be published. XAU/USD Gold prices show growth during today's Asian session, correcting after a sharp decline in quotations yesterday. The instrument is testing the level of 1645.00 for a breakout. Analysts attribute the appearance of negative trading dynamics on Tuesday to the fixation of long profits after updating seven-year highs. At the same time, investors are still frightened by statistics on the spread of the incidence of coronavirus outside of China, which supports gold quotes. Additional support for the instrument is provided by talks about the possible introduction by the leading regulators of changes in monetary policy in order to mitigate the negative consequences of a slowdown in the global economy. A number of analysts believe that the Fed may return to the idea of cutting rates already at the March meeting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.