MikhailLF Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-12-02 08:43 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR is weakening against USD during the Asian session, losing about 0.02%. The instrument is slightly correcting after growth at the end of last week, which allowed the euro to consolidate at a local high since November 25 at 1.1027. The strengthening of EUR last Friday was facilitated by the moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the euro area. The Eurozone Core Consumer Price Index rose by 1.3% YoY in November after rising by 1.1% YoY a month earlier. Analysts had expected growth by 1.2% YoY. Consumer Price Index for the same period accelerated from +0.7% YoY to +1.0% YoY, which also exceeded expectations of +0.9% YoY. Unemployment Rate in October expectedly decreased from 7.6% to 7.5%. During the day, investors expect publication of data on the EU Manufacturing PMI for November, as well as a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. GBP/USD GBP opened today with a moderate downward gap against USD and is currently trading near 1.2910, losing about 0.16%. The opening shifts were caused by investors returning to the market after the holidays in the USA and the publication of positive macroeconomic statistics from China on Saturday, while the general news background did not change much. The pound remains under pressure from uncertainty over the upcoming British parliamentary elections, despite quite clear forecasts. According to numerous opinion polls, the Conservative Party of Great Britain can get a confident majority, which will allow Boris Johnson to ratify the agreement with the EU and put an end to the fairly protracted history with Brexit. Today, investors expect the publication of statistics on the UK Markit Manufacturing PMI in November. After the opening of the American session, similar indices will be released in the United States. AUD/USD AUD is showing moderate growth against USD, gaining 0.2%. The growth of the instrument is facilitated by the publication of strong data from China, while Australian statistics are contradictory. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI in November rose from 51.7 to 51.8 points against the forecast of a decrease to 51.4 points. Australian data, by contrast, indicated a decrease in Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI from 50 to 49.9 points. AiG Manufacturing PMI in November fell sharply from 51.6 to 48.1 points. Building Approvals issued in October fell by 8.1% MoM after a 7.2% MoM growth in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline by 0.4% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator decreased from –17% YoY in September to –23.6% YoY in October. Tomorrow, investors expect the publication of the RBA decision on the interest rate. It is predicted that the regulator will not change the parameters of monetary policy and will keep the rate at the same level of 0.75%. USD/JPY USD is showing moderate growth against JPY during today's Asian session, adding about 0.19% and updating local highs of May 30 (109.71). The growth of the dollar is facilitated by a good demand for risk, as well as moderately optimistic signals from the US economy. In addition, investors are responding to the situation around US-Chinese trade negotiations. After Trump signed bills to support protesters in Hong Kong last Wednesday, markets expected a response from Beijing, but there was no reaction, which may indirectly indicate China’s interest in signing the first stage of the agreement in the near future. Additional pressure on the yen on Friday was exerted by data on industrial production. In October, the indicator crashed by 4.2% MoM and 7.4% YoY, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations of –2.1% MoM and +1.9% YoY. XAU/USD Gold prices are falling during today's Asian session, losing 0.3%. The instrument is correcting after active growth at the end of last week, due to the correction of the US currency. Moderate support for gold continues to be provided by the uncertain situation surrounding US and Chinese trade negotiations, especially after the adoption of a number of bills in the US aimed at supporting protesters in Hong Kong. However, to date, China has not taken any retaliatory measures that could significantly worsen the prospects for signing a preliminary trade agreement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-12-03 08:37 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR is stable against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating near local highs (1.1088), updated the day before, when the instrument managed to show steady growth. The positive dynamics of the instrument was facilitated by strong data on business activity in Europe, as well as positive statistics from China, which somewhat eased concerns about a further slowdown in the global economy. Manufacturing PMI of the euro area in November rose from 46.6 to 46.9 points with a neutral forecast. German Manufacturing PMI in November rose from 43.8 to 44.1 points, which also turned out to be better than market expectations. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of European Producer Price Indices for October and a speech by ECB representative Benoit Coeure. GBP/USD GBP shows flat dynamics during today's Asian session, being located near its local highs, updated the day before. The growth of the instrument is facilitated by macroeconomic statistics released on Monday. Markit Manufacturing PMI in the UK in November rose from 48.3 to 48.9 points, which turned out to be better than the neutral forecast. At the same time, US data turned out worse than expected. ISM Manufacturing PMI in November declined from 48.3 to 48.1 points with the forecast of growth to 49.2 points. ISM Manufacturing Prices in November rose from 45.5 to 46.7 points, not reaching the forecast of 47 points. AUD/USD AUD is showing strong growth during today's Asian session, adding about 0.22%. The instrument is supported by the RBA decision on the interest rate. As expected, the regulator did not change the parameters of monetary policy, maintaining the rate at 0.75%. AUD is also supported by strong data from China and the rather vulnerable position of USD, which is again under pressure from uncertain prospects. The day before, Donald trump introduced import duties on steel and aluminum from Brazil and Argentina, and also made harsh criticism of the Fed, urging to adjust the high exchange rate of the national currency. USD/JPY USD is correcting against JPY during today's Asian session, gaining about 0.23%. The growth of the instrument replaced the confident correction yesterday, as a result of which the dollar retreated from the local highs of May 30. Contradictory macroeconomic statistics published in the USA continue to exert pressure on the pair. Markit Manufacturing PMI rose from 52.2 to 52.6 points in November with a neutral forecast. ISM Manufacturing PMI in November declined from 48.3 to 48.1 points with the forecast of growth to 49.2 points. XAU/USD Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session and are located near the opening level of 1463.84. The instrument is supported by weak macroeconomic statistics from the USA, as well as the continuing uncertainty surrounding US-Chinese trade relations. The PRC took retaliatory sanctions against the American Human Rights Watch, which actively supports civil protests in Hong Kong. In addition, Beijing has banned the mooring of US ships in Hong Kong. It is highly likely that the parties will not be able to resume full-scale trade negotiations before the end of this year. In December, markets also fear a possible increase in import duties on Chinese goods, which could offset all the progress already achieved in the negotiations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-12-04 08:42 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR shows a slight decline against USD during today's Asian session, losing about 0.04%. The pair continues to consolidate near local highs at the level of 1.1092, updated the day before amid conflicting external factors. Moderate support for the euro is provided by positive macroeconomic indicators on Manufacturing PMIs, which were released on Monday. Tuesday's data turned out to be significantly more restrained. Producer Price Index in October showed an increase of 0.1% MoM, which coincided with the dynamics of the previous month. In annual terms, production inflation fell by 1.9% YoY after falling by 1.2% YoY in September. During the day, investors expect the publication of European Services PMI, which will later be compared with similar statistics from the United States. GBP/USD GBP is trading with multidirectional dynamics against USD during today's Asian session, located near the opening level of 1.2990. Moderate support for the instrument is still provided by the expectation of parliamentary elections in the UK on December 12, where, according to opinion polls, the Conservative Party should win a landslide victory. The victory of the conservatives will allow Boris Johnson to ratify the agreement with the EU and close the urgent issue once and for all. However, analysts are already discussing the future of Great Britain outside the European Union. In particular, it is noted that if London is unable to agree with the EU on free trade, the UK economy will suffer significantly, and the rate may adjust to 1.15 dollars per pound. AUD/USD AUD shows negative dynamics during today's Asian session, correcting by about 0.26%. The decline in the instrument proceeds amid the publication of conflicting macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Australian GDP in Q3 2019 increased by 0.4% QoQ after a growth of 0.6% QoQ in the previous quarter. The indicator came out worse than its forecast for growth of 0.5% QoQ. In annual terms, the Australian economy accelerated from 1.4% YoY to 1.7% YoY, meeting the expectations of investors. Commonwealth Services PMI rose in November from 49.5 to 49.7 points with a neutral outlook. AiG Services PMI in November fell from 54.2 to 53.7 points. USD/JPY USD continues to develop a downward trend in trading against JPY, retreating to new local lows since November 22. The pair has been losing about 0.07% since the opening of today's trading session, retreating amid the publication of moderately optimistic data from Japan. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in November rose from 49.7 to 50.3 points, returning to the surplus zone after a sharp decline in October. Investors had expected growth to 50.4 points. Additional support for the Japanese currency is provided by the deteriorating prospects of concluding a trade agreement between the United States and China, after Donald Trump noted that the agreement could be signed closer to the presidential election in 2020. In addition, the US president still intends to raise import duties on Chinese imports for USD 160 billion in total from December 15. XAU/USD Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session, consolidating near local highs (1481.44), updated the day before. The growth of quotations yesterday was facilitated by investors' flight from risks, after the United States introduced higher tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum from Brazil and Argentina. In addition, investors reacted negatively to the possible postponement of the signing of a trade agreement between the United States and China to November 2020, when the US presidential election will be held. Obviously, this is too long for such an issue, especially considering the speed of change of events in the modern world. Moreover, on December 15, Donald Trump again threatened to increase import duties on Chinese goods, which could put an end to all the progress that had been achieved over a long time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-12-05 09:48 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR shows a slight increase against USD during today's Asian session, gaining about 0.04%. The instrument is recovering somewhat after the ambiguous dynamics yesterday, which, at the same time, led to the updating of local highs from November 5. The euro was supported by strong data from the euro area. Markit Services PMI in the euro area rose in November from 51.5 to 51.9 points with a neutral forecast. Markit Composite PMI for the same period strengthened from 50.3 to 50.6 points, which also turned out to be higher than the projected values of 50.3 points. Separately, it is worth highlighting data from Germany. Services PMI rose from 51.3 to 51.7 points in November (with a forecast of 51.3 points), while the Composite PMI rose from 49.2 to 49.4 points, which also turned out to be better than forecasts of 49.2 points. GBP/USD GBP showed noticeable growth against USD yesterday, updating record highs of May 7. "Bullish" trend can be traced during today's Asian session; however, its activity is noticeably lower. GBP adds about 0.07%. The growth of the British currency is supported by the expectations of the Conservative Party winning the upcoming early parliamentary elections in the UK on December 12. Additional support for the instrument on Wednesday was provided by optimistic data on business activity in the UK services sector. November Markit PMI rose from 48.6 to 49.3 points with a neutral forecast. AUD/USD AUD shows negative dynamics during today's Asian session, declining by about 0.24%. The instrument responds to the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Australia's Retail Sales in October showed zero dynamics after rising by 0.2% MoM in September. Analysts had expected acceleration of the increase to 0.3% MoM. Exports from Australia in October showed a 5% decline after rising by 3% a month earlier. Imports for the same period showed zero dynamics after an increase of 3% in September. Such a significant drop in exports led to a marked decrease in the surplus of the trade balance. In October, the balance amounted to 4.5B Australian dollars after 7.2B in September. Analysts had expected a balance surplus of AUD 6.1B. USD/JPY USD shows ambiguous trading dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating after corrective growth the day before, thanks to which the US currency managed to retreat from its local lows of November 21. USD strengthened its position, despite the appearance of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the US on Wednesday. ISM Services PMI in November fell from 54.7 to 53.9 points, which turned out to be noticeably worse than market expectations of 54.5 points. At the same time, the Composite PMI for the same period increased from 51.9 to 52 points. An additional negative point was the publication of the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. In November, the figure rose by 67K new jobs after an increase of 121K in the previous month. Analysts had expected a much more significant increase of 140K. XAU/USD Gold prices rise slightly during today's Asian session, adding about 0.05%. The instrument is slightly corrected after predominantly negative trading yesterday, which formed in response to the news about US-Chinese trade negotiations. Bloomberg reported that the parties are close to agreeing on the volumes of tariffs that are proposed to be canceled as part of the first phase of the trade agreement. The deal itself, according to Bloomberg, may be concluded before December 15. Morning Market Review 2019-12-04 08:42 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR shows a slight decline against USD during today's Asian session, losing about 0.04%. The pair continues to consolidate near local highs at the level of 1.1092, updated the day before amid conflicting external factors. Moderate support for the euro is provided by positive macroeconomic indicators on Manufacturing PMIs, which were released on Monday. Tuesday's data turned out to be significantly more restrained. Producer Price Index in October showed an increase of 0.1% MoM, which coincided with the dynamics of the previous month. In annual terms, production inflation fell by 1.9% YoY after falling by 1.2% YoY in September. During the day, investors expect the publication of European Services PMI, which will later be compared with similar statistics from the United States. GBP/USD GBP is trading with multidirectional dynamics against USD during today's Asian session, located near the opening level of 1.2990. Moderate support for the instrument is still provided by the expectation of parliamentary elections in the UK on December 12, where, according to opinion polls, the Conservative Party should win a landslide victory. The victory of the conservatives will allow Boris Johnson to ratify the agreement with the EU and close the urgent issue once and for all. However, analysts are already discussing the future of Great Britain outside the European Union. In particular, it is noted that if London is unable to agree with the EU on free trade, the UK economy will suffer significantly, and the rate may adjust to 1.15 dollars per pound. AUD/USD AUD shows negative dynamics during today's Asian session, correcting by about 0.26%. The decline in the instrument proceeds amid the publication of conflicting macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Australian GDP in Q3 2019 increased by 0.4% QoQ after a growth of 0.6% QoQ in the previous quarter. The indicator came out worse than its forecast for growth of 0.5% QoQ. In annual terms, the Australian economy accelerated from 1.4% YoY to 1.7% YoY, meeting the expectations of investors. Commonwealth Services PMI rose in November from 49.5 to 49.7 points with a neutral outlook. AiG Services PMI in November fell from 54.2 to 53.7 points. USD/JPY USD continues to develop a downward trend in trading against JPY, retreating to new local lows since November 22. The pair has been losing about 0.07% since the opening of today's trading session, retreating amid the publication of moderately optimistic data from Japan. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in November rose from 49.7 to 50.3 points, returning to the surplus zone after a sharp decline in October. Investors had expected growth to 50.4 points. Additional support for the Japanese currency is provided by the deteriorating prospects of concluding a trade agreement between the United States and China, after Donald Trump noted that the agreement could be signed closer to the presidential election in 2020. In addition, the US president still intends to raise import duties on Chinese imports for USD 160 billion in total from December 15. XAU/USD Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session, consolidating near local highs (1481.44), updated the day before. The growth of quotations yesterday was facilitated by investors' flight from risks, after the United States introduced higher tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum from Brazil and Argentina. In addition, investors reacted negatively to the possible postponement of the signing of a trade agreement between the United States and China to November 2020, when the US presidential election will be held. Obviously, this is too long for such an issue, especially considering the speed of change of events in the modern world. Moreover, on December 15, Donald Trump again threatened to increase import duties on Chinese goods, which could put an end to all the progress that had been achieved over a long time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-12-06 08:46 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR shows ambiguous trading against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating after strong growth, which, however, failed to lead to the renewal of previous local highs at 1.1115. The European statistics published on Thursday, which turned out to be not the most successful, remain in the spotlight of investors. The EU GDP in Q3 2019 increased by 0.2% QoQ and 1.2% YoY, which coincided with the data of the previous period and the forecasts. At the same time, Retail Sales in October fell by 0.6% MoM after a decline of 0.2% MoM in September. Investors expected a reduction of 0.3% MoM. In annual terms, sales slowed down from 2.7% YoY to 1.4% YoY, which also turned out to be noticeably worse than market expectations of 2.2% YoY. Employment Change in Q3 2019 increased by 0.1% QoQ and 0.9% YoY, which coincided with the dynamics in the previous quarter. GBP/USD GBP is stable against USD during today's Asian session, trading near local highs of May 6. The pound confidently strengthened during the last three trading sessions, which was caused by not the strongest positions of the American currency, and also by the growth of confidence in the Conservative Party's victory in the British parliamentary elections on 12 December. This will allow the Parliament to ratify the deal with the EU and implement Brexit, meeting the new deadlines by the end of January 2020. During the day, investors expect the publication of the November report on the US labor market, which could trigger the appearance of correctional dynamics in favor of the US currency. AUD/USD AUD is strengthening against USD during today's Asian session, adding about 0.14%. The instrument is recovering after the decline yesterday caused by the publication of contradictory macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Australian Exports fell by 5% in October after rising 3% a month earlier. Imports for the same period showed zero dynamics after an increase of 3% in September. Such a significant decline in exports led to a decrease in the trade surplus in October from 6.85B to 4.50B Australian dollars with a forecast of 6.10B. The correctional growth of the instrument during the Asian session is not hindered by the publication of weak AiG Construction Index, which continued to decline in November and fell from 43.9 to 40 points, which turned out to be worse than the average expectations. USD/JPY USD is declining against JPY during the Asian session, losing about 0.07%. The yen is again in demand amid growing uncertainty around US-Chinese trade negotiations. Donald Trump’s restrained statements that “the negotiations are proceeding well” weakly support the market, which is waiting for December 15, when the US may increase import duties on Chinese goods, which can offset all the progress achieved by the parties. Published macroeconomic statistics from Japan on Friday does not support the yen. Average Cash Earnings in October increased by 0.5% YoY, coinciding with the data for the previous month. Analysts had expected a significant increase of 1.1% YoY. Household Spending in October fell sharply by 5.1% YoY after growth by 9.5% YoY in the previous month. Experts expected a decrease of 3% YoY. XAU/USD Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session, trading near 1475.00. Gold quotes have changed little recently since investors expect the situation to develop in a trade conflict between the United States and China. Earlier this week, information appeared that the conclusion of the agreement may have to be postponed to November 2020, when the next presidential election will be held in the United States. Trump later reiterated that “negotiations are going well,” and moderate optimism gradually began to return to the markets. However, there is little time left until December 15, and new import duties, if they are introduced by the USA, will almost certainly put an end to the current progress in the negotiations and everything will have to be started from scratch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-12-09 08:48 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR is stable (–0.03%) against USD on Monday, consolidating after a sharp decline last Friday. EUR showed an active decline on Friday, retreating from its local highs and the level of 1.1115, after the publication of a strong report on the US labor market, which in many respects exceeded expectations. In November, the US economy created 266K new jobs with a forecast of growth of only 180K. Last month, the growth rate was 156K (revised upwards from the previous 128K). Average Hourly Earnings increased by 3.1% YoY, which is slightly worse than previous data of 3.2% YoY (revised from +3% YoY). November Unemployment Rate unexpectedly dropped from 3.6% to 3.5%. During the day, investors expect publication of statistics on Imports and Exports from Germany for October. GBP/USD GBP is trading with a slight increase (+0.02%) against USD during today's Asian session, located not far from its local highs (1.3165), updated last Thursday. Trading activity in the British currency remains restrained, as traders are in no hurry to open new positions in anticipation of early parliamentary elections, which will be held at the end of this week. These elections are expected to decide the fate of Brexit, as the market is confident in the victory of the Conservative Party. In addition, investors are waiting for news regarding the process of trade negotiations between the United States and China. Next Sunday, according to Donald Trump, import duties on Chinese goods can be raised again if an agreement between the countries is not signed. AUD/USD AUD is trading near the opening level (0.6829) against USD during today's Asian session. Investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions, preferring to wait for new drivers to appear at the market. Monday's macroeconomic background is rather scarce, but on Tuesday there will be a lot of interesting statistics from Australia and China. On Wednesday, the United States will be in the spotlight with the publication of November statistics on Consumer Inflation and the Fed meeting. In the meantime, investors are taking a lead from the publication of a strong US labor market report for November last Friday. Nonfarm Payrolls in November increased by 266K after the growth by 156K in the previous month. Analysts had expected an increase of 180K. USD/JPY USD is trading flat against JPY during today's Asian session, consolidating after falling last week. The optimism from the November report on the labor market, which was released last Friday, today is offset by positive macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Bank Lending in November increased by 2.1% YoY after growth by 2% YoY in the previous month. Experts expected a slowdown to +1.9% YoY. Japan's GDP for Q3 2019 grew by 0.4% QoQ after a 0.1% QoQ increase over the previous period. The indicator came out twice as good as its forecasts. On an annual basis, the Japanese economy grew by 1.8% YoY, which was significantly better than market expectations of 0.7% YoY. XAU/USD Gold prices are falling slightly during today's Asian session, losing about 0.03% and developing a "bearish" momentum formed at the end of last trading week. Reduction of gold quotes is due to a strong report on the US labor market, published last Friday. The American economy showed a sharp increase in the number of Nonfarm Payrolls at the most significant pace in the last 10 months. This allows investors to expect the Fed to continue taking a wait-and-see attitude and abandon the idea of additional stimulation of the economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-12-10 08:39 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR shows moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bullish" impulse formed yesterday. At the same time, buying activity for the instrument in the market remains reduced, as investors expect the Fed meeting on Wednesday and the ECB meeting on Thursday. The euro is adding only 0.03%. Published on Monday, macroeconomic statistics from Europe provides the pair with moderate support. German Exports in October grew by 1.2% MoM after rising by 1.5% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline by 0.3% MoM. Imports for the same period showed zero dynamics after an increase of 1.2% MoM in September. Due to strong export growth, the Trade Surplus in October rose from 19.2 billion to 20.6 billion euros, which was better than forecasts expecting a correction to 19 billion. GBP/USD GBP is relatively stable against USD during the Asian session on Tuesday, consolidating near the record high of April 4 (1.3179), updated the day before. As before, the pound is supported by positive expectations regarding the upcoming parliamentary elections, which can decide the outcome of Brexit. According to numerous opinion polls, the Conservative Party has good chances of victory, which will allow Boris Johnson to ratify the agreement with the EU and withdraw Great Britain from the European Union by the end of January 2020. During Tuesday, investors expect the publication of interesting macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Among other things, market participants are interested in data on Manufacturing Production dynamics and GDP growth rates (in monthly terms) for October. NZD/USD NZD is showing moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, recovering from a decline earlier this week. At the moment, the growth of the instrument is about 0.14%, and NZD itself is again approaching local highs of this August at around 0.6575. Moderate support for the instrument is provided by statistics on Consumer Inflation from China. CPI rose by 4.5% YoY in November after rising by 3.8% YoY in October. Experts expected the index to accelerate to 4.2% YoY. Additional support for the New Zealand dollar is provided by optimistic news regarding the conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada (USMCA). USD/JPY USD shows a slight increase against JPY during today's Asian session, adding about 0.03%. Investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions ahead of the meetings of the Fed and the ECB in the middle of the week, and the yen, in turn, is stable against the backdrop of market uncertainty. First of all, investors are concerned about the possible introduction of new import duties on Chinese goods on December 15, since the administration of Donald Trump did not report anything new on this subject, and the parties obviously have not time to sign a trade agreement until that moment. In addition, strong macroeconomic statistics on GDP published at the beginning of the week provide additional support for the yen. In Q3 2019, the Japanese economy grew by 0.4% QoQ after growing by 0.1% QoQ a month earlier. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.2% QoQ. XAU/USD Gold prices show a slight increase during today's Asian session, developing a weak "bullish" momentum formed earlier. Gold is supported by continued uncertainty surrounding US-China trade negotiations. Earlier, the Chinese Assistant Minister of Commerce Ren Hongbin said that Beijing was counting on an agreement in the near future, but there were very few specifics, as always. Meanwhile, markets fear that on December 15, Donald Trump will introduce new import duties on Chinese goods, which may erase all progress in negotiations during this time. As for the upcoming meetings of the Fed and the ECB in the middle of the week, investors do not expect any changes in the monetary policy vector from regulators; however, the comments of officials will be very important, especially considering that Christine Lagarde will deliver her first speech as President of the ECB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-12-11 08:42 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR is relatively stable against USD during today's Asian session. The instrument is trading near the level of 1.1096, a local high of December 6, updated the day before. Moderate growth of the instrument on Tuesday was facilitated by rather optimistic macroeconomic statistics from Europe. ZEW Economic Sentiment index in December showed an increase from –1 to 11.2 points, which turned out to be much better than expectations (–17.7 points). Investors were pleased with the data from ZEW for Germany. German ZEW Current Conditions in December rose from –24.7 to –19.9 points, which turned out to be better than the forecasts at –22.3 points. German ZEW Economic Sentiment for the same period rose from –2.1 to 10.7 points, while the growth forecast was only to zero. During the day, investors expect the publication of statistics from the US on consumer inflation. However, the key event on Wednesday will be the Fed meeting on interest rates, followed by a press conference. GBP/USD GBP showed a rather active decline against USD during today's Asian session, falling by 0.35%. Later, the pound managed to return most of the lost positions, and the pair is in the red by only 15 points. Investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from the UK, published the day before. The UK GDP growth rate in October showed zero dynamics after a decline of 0.1% MoM in September. Analysts had expected growth by 0.1% MoM. Industrial Production in October increased by 0.1% MoM, accelerating from the previous decline of 0.3% MoM. At the same time, the indicator was worse than market expectations of 0.2% MoM. On an annualized basis, production is still in the red (–1.3% YoY) and has only slightly improved compared to the data for the previous period (–1.4% YoY). AUD/USD AUD is showing moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after a moderate decline of the instrument at the beginning of the week, which led to the renewal of local lows of December 2. The Australian dollar is adding about 0.19%. Macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China released on Tuesday provided little support to the instrument. Australia's House Price Index in Q3 2019 increased by 2.4% QoQ after a decline of 0.7% QoQ in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.2% QoQ only. NAB Business Survey in November remained at the same level of 4 points, contrary to forecasts of a decline to 2 points. Chinese statistics showed growth in annual dynamics of consumer prices. In November, CPI accelerated from 3.8% YoY to 4.5% YoY, being better than its forecast of 4.2% YoY. USD/JPY USD strengthens against JPY during today's Asian session, updating local highs of December 6 (108.84). "Bullish" activity on the instrument slightly decreased, and the dollar showed a correction to the level of 108.73, expecting the appearance of new drivers on the market. Investors are waiting for the publication of statistics on consumer inflation with the opening of an American session at the market. In particular, it is expected that the Consumer Price Index in November will accelerate from 1.8% YoY to 2.0% YoY. In addition, traders are waiting for the Fed decision on the interest rate. It is unlikely that the US regulator will change monetary policy, but official comments are still important. XAU/USD Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session, consolidating after a slight increase the day before. Support for the instrument is provided by corrective sentiment in the American currency ahead of the Fed meeting on the interest rate. In addition, investors fear the approach of December 15, the day when Donald Trump may introduce higher import duties on Chinese goods. There was information in the media that the US plan to postpone the introduction of new duties, but officials have not yet commented on this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-12-12 08:44 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR is showing moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, updating local highs of November 4. The growth of the euro is promoted by not the strongest positions in the US currency, which received an additional impetus to decline after the Fed meeting the day before. As expected, the regulator did not change the parameters of monetary policy, maintaining the rate at 1.75%. At the same time, the Fed made it clear that the current level of rates will remain unchanged for quite a long time. The regulator still did not reach the target inflation levels, but forecasts for the near future do not suggest that these goals will be achieved. Today, investors are focused on the ECB meeting, as well as the press conference of the head of the European regulator Christine Lagarde. GBP/USD GBP remains upward in trading against USD. During the Asian session, the instrument adds about 0.16%, again updating record highs of the end of March. British investors are focused on the parliamentary elections in the UK, which will be held today. The markets expect a confident victory for the Conservative Party led by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, which is likely to allow unhindered ratification of the agreement with the EU. However, the updated polls from YouGov reduced optimism regarding the confident victory of the conservatives, as they indicated a sharp reduction in the leadership of the party of Boris Johnson. NZD/USD NZD is relatively stable against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating near local highs (0.6602), updated the day before. The instrument was supported on Wednesday by the publication of strong data on Retail Sales in New Zealand, as well as the expected results of the Fed meeting on the interest rate. Sales using electronic payment cards in November grew by 2.6% MoM and 5.1% YoY, which was significantly better than market forecasts (0.5% MoM and 1.5% YoY). Today, published macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand is not so straightforward. The fOod Price Index in November fell by 0.7% MoM after a decline of 0.3% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected decline by 0.1% MoM. Visitor Arrivals growth in October slowed down from 1.4% YoY to 0.1% YoY with a forecast of 0.4% YoY. USD/JPY USD shows a slight increase against JPY during today's Asian session, adding about 0.02%. Despite the weakened position of the US currency after the Fed meeting, the "bullish" activity on the instrument is supported by relatively high demand for risk, as well as the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Core Machinery Orders in Japan in October decreased by 6% MoM after a decrease of 2.9% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.9% MoM. YoY, the indicator declined by 6.1% as opposed to the growth by 5.1% last month. Forecasts suggested a decrease of only 1.8% YoY. XAU/USD Gold prices are consolidating during today's Asian session after moderate growth the day before, which was supported by the expectation of the Fed meeting and the uncertainty surrounding the increase in import duties on Chinese goods on December 15. The media reported that Donald Trump is likely to postpone the introduction of new duties, but there have been no official comments yet. The published Minutes of the Fed meeting somewhat weakened the position of gold, as the regulator emphasized that in the near future it is not worth expecting a reduction in the interest rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-12-13 08:45 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR has shown steady growth during today's Asian session, adding about 0.5%. The instrument also managed to update local highs of August 13, rising to the level of 1.1198. The reason for such a significant increase in EUR was the moderately optimistic results of the ECB meeting yesterday. As expected, the European regulator did not change the parameters of monetary policy and kept the rate at the previous zero mark. In addition, the ECB will continue to purchase a monthly bond purchase of EUR 20 billion under the current quantitative easing program. According to updated forecasts, the European economy will show growth of 1.2% this year and will slow down slightly to 1.1% YoY in 2020. Achieving the target inflation rate remains only a distant prospect. By 2022, the ECB expects acceleration of inflation to only 1.6%. GBP/USD GBP shows a sharp increase during today's Asian session, updating record highs of May 2018. The growth of the instrument at the moment is more than 2.20% and is mainly due to the publication of preliminary results of voting in the elections to the British Parliament. As expected, the party of Boris Johnson is going to parliament with an overwhelming majority, which will allow Brexit to be implemented before the deadline in the end of January 2020. During the day, investors expect the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the United States, while there will be not much statistics from the UK. The US are expected to publish November data on Retail Sales, and also a statement by Fed representative John Williams is expected. NZD/USD NZD is growing moderately during today's Asian session, updating local highs of July 2019. The instrument adds about 0.30%, receiving support from the publication of macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand. Business NZ PMI in November fell from 52.6 to 51.4 points, remaining in the growth zone contrary to forecasts of a decrease to 49.8 points. Additional support for the instrument is provided by Donald Trump's statements on Twitter that the parties are very close to concluding a "major deal". The trade conflict between the US and China is very worrying for investors, since the US may increase import duties on Chinese goods next Sunday, which will only aggravate the situation. USD/JPY USD is showing growth during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bullish" impulse formed the day before. At the moment, USD is adding about 0.28%, receiving support from the growth of optimism regarding the prospects for a trade agreement between the US and China. In addition, investors are reacting to the publication of the preliminary results of the elections to the British Parliament, where Boris Johnson’s party wins, which will allow him to ratify the agreement with the EU in the near future. Additional pressure on the yen is provided by uncertain macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Industrial Production in Japan in October fell by 7.7% YoY after falling by 7.4% YoY in September. In monthly terms, production decreased by 4.5% MoM after a decrease of 4.2% in the previous month. Tankan Large Manufacturers Index in Q4 2019 fell from 5 to 0 points, which turned out to be worse than forecasts about a decrease to 2 points. XAU/USD Gold prices are slightly decreasing during today's Asian session, losing about 0.12%. The instrument develops an uncertain "bearish" impulse, which was supported by Donald Trump's statements on Twitter that the US and China are close to concluding a trade deal. The issue of increasing import duties on December 15 remains open. Nevertheless, there is information in the media that indicates Washington’s readiness to abandon the introduction of new tariffs. Moreover, investors are hoping to reduce some of the existing import duties. Finally, the first results of parliamentary elections in the UK contribute to the development of negative dynamics in gold. As expected, the Conservative Party is gaining a landslide victory, which will allow it to gain an overwhelming majority in parliament. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-12-16 08:48 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR shows a slight increase against USD during today's Asian session, adding about 0.13% compared with the closing session last Friday. On December 13, the instrument showed a sharp increase updating local highs of August 13, after which it quickly lost almost all of its advantage, responding to reports of the signing of the first phase of a trade agreement between the United States and China. A little later, on Twitter Donald Trump confirmed that the parties reached an agreement and the increase in import duties planned for December 15 will be canceled. Today, investors expect publication of statistics on business activity in Europe and the United States for December. It is expected that Markit Composite PMI of euro zone in December will grow from 50.6 to 50.9 points, which will provide moderate support to the euro. GBP/USD GBP is growing against USD during today's Asian session, adding about 0.39% and continuing to develop the "bullish" momentum formed at the end of last week after the publication of preliminary results of parliamentary elections in the UK. As expected, the Conservative Party led by Boris Johnson won a landslide victory, gaining 368 out of 650 seats in Parliament. This has been the best result for the conservatives since Margaret Thatcher. Today, investors are focused on statistics from the UK on business activity for December. Services PMI is expected to rise from 49.3 to 49.6 points in December. Manufacturing PMI may rise from 48.9 to 49.4 points over the same period. NZD/USD NZD shows flat trading dynamics during the Asian session, consolidating near the local highs, updated last Friday. The pair showed rather active growth at the end of last week, responding to reports of the signing of the first phase of a trade agreement between the United States and China, but the instrument failed to consolidate at the new local highs. Moderate pressure on NZD on Monday is exerted by the Business NZ Performance of Services Index. In November, the index fell from 55.4 to 53.3 points, which turned out to be worse than the average expectations. In turn, Chinese statistics provide the pair with slight support. Industrial Production in China in November showed an increase of 6.2% YoY after an increase of 4.7% YoY a month earlier. Analysts had expected growth by 5% YoY. Retail Sales for the same period increased by 8% YoY after rising by 7.2% YoY a month earlier. The forecast assumed an increase of 7.6% YoY. USD/JPY USD is strengthening against JPY during today's Asian session, adding about 0.09%. The growth of USD is facilitated by an increase in interest in risk at the market after the signing of the first phase of the trade agreement between the USA and China and the cancellation of the increase in import duties on Chinese goods planned for December 15. In addition, investors are responding to the landslide victory of conservatives in the election to the British Parliament, which will significantly reduce uncertainty regarding Brexit. Additional pressure on JPY today is provided by uncertain macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Jibun Bank's Manufacturing PMI dropped from 48.9 to 48.8 points in December, which, however, turned out to be better than forecasts of 48.4 points. Tertiary Industry Index in October decreased by 4.6% MoM after growth by 1.8% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at 0.7% MoM. XAU/USD Gold prices showed a moderate increase at the end of last week, responding to the corrective sentiment on USD, due to the rapid fading of the "bullish" momentum after the announcement of the conclusion of a trade deal between the US and China. Today, the instrument shows ambiguous dynamics, trading near the opening level of 1475.27, waiting for new drivers to appear at the market. Demand for gold may decline markedly in the near future amid the removal of the risks of uncertainty around Brexit and the US-PRC trade conflict. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-12-17 08:51 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR shows flat dynamics against USD during today's Asian session, maintaining a "bullish" momentum formed at the beginning of last trading week. The euro is adding about 0.04%, expecting new drivers for growth. The instrument had a moderate positive trend on Monday; however, the macroeconomic background of the beginning of the week remains ambiguous. Manufacturing PMI of the euro area in December fell from 46.9 to 45.9 points against the forecast of growth to 47.3 points. At the same time, Services PMI grew from 51.9 to 52.4 points, which turned out to be better than market expectations of 52 points. Separately, investors were disappointed with data from Germany. German Manufacturing PMI fell from 44.1 to 43.4 points against the forecast of 44.5 points. German Services PMI increased again from 51.7 to 52 points, meeting market expectations. Composite PMI in December consolidated at the previous level of 49.4 points, contrary to expectations of growth to 49.9 points. GBP/USD GBP is declining during today's Asian session, correcting after sharp growth over the last two trading sessions. The instrument is testing 1.3300 for a breakdown, although during the first hours of trading, the pound fell to the level of 1.3234. The euphoria from the confident victory of the Conservative Party of Great Britain in the parliamentary elections is gradually passing, and not the most successful macroeconomic statistics comes to the fore. Markit Manufacturing PMI of the UK in December fell from 48.9 to 47.4 points against the forecast of growth to 49.3 points. Services PMI also showed a decrease from 49.3 to 49 points against the forecast of growth to 49.5 points. Today, investors are waiting for the publication of UK labor market data. In addition, closer to the end of the afternoon session, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney should give his speech. AUD/USD AUD is going down against USD during today's Asian session, losing about 0.22%. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by not the most successful macroeconomic statistics from Australia, as well as the publication of last RBA meeting minutes, at which the monetary policy parameters were preserved unchanged. Australian Home Loans in October grew by 0.6% MoM after the decline of 3% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 1% MoM. At the same time, Invest Housing Finance in October grew by 2% MoM after an increase of 1.1% MoM in September. During the day, investors expect publication of statistics on the housing market and the US industrial production in November. USD/JPY USD shows flat dynamics of trading against JPY during today's Asian session. The pair is consolidating after moderate growth the day before, which again brought the dollar to local highs (109.69), updated at the end of last week. Monday's macroeconomic statistics clearly contributed to the development of the uptrend in the instrument. Jibun Bank's Manufacturing PMI dropped from 48.9 to 48.8 points in December, which, however, turned out to be better than forecasts of 48.4 points. Tertiary Industry Index in October decreased by 4.6% MoM after growth by 1.8% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at 0.7% MoM. In turn, American statistics turned out to be better than the forecasts. Services PMI in December rose from 51.6 to 52.2 points against the forecast of 52 points. Composite PMI in December rose from 52 to 52.2 points against the forecast of 51.9 points. XAU/USD Gold prices are stable at the beginning of the new week and consolidate near the levels of 1475.00–1480.00. Friday's growth gave way to flat dynamics amid the fading of previous growth factors, one of which was the fact that the US and China had agreed upon a trade deal. In addition, China managed to avoid new import duties, which should have a positive effect on global trade. The uncertainty in the market was also lowered by the confident victory of the Conservative Party of Great Britain in the early parliamentary elections, which will allow Boris Johnson to carry out the Brexit procedure without any special obstacles by the end of January next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-12-18 08:52 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR is weakening against USD during today's Asian session, losing about 0.13%. The development of the correctional dynamics for the instrument is largely due to technical factors, since the euro, with varying success, completed 6 trading sessions with moderate growth. Tuesday's macroeconomic statistics from the euro area provided little support to the pair. Meanwhile, the euro area's Trade Balance s.a. in October rose from EUR 18.7B to 24.5B, which was significantly better than market expectations of EUR 19.3B. Today, European investors expect the publication of statistics from the euro area on consumer inflation for November. However, forecasts again do not inspire optimism, and therefore no support for the instrument is expected yet. In addition, the market expects another speech by the ECB President Christine Lagarde. GBP/USD GBP declines against USD during today's Asian session, updating local lows of December 12. The pound collapsed by more than 1.5% amid growing alarming concerns about the possibility of a trade agreement between the UK and the EU before the end of 2020. Having gained a strong majority in the British parliament, Boris Johnson intends to legislatively limit the transition period for Britain after the country's exit from the EU. The UK and the EU are trying to conclude a trade agreement that could help smooth out the problems that arise as a result of Brexit and keep the United Kingdom access to the European market. Additional pressure on the pound on Tuesday is exerted by uncertain macroeconomic statistics from the UK. In October, Average Earnings Including Bonus slowed down from +3.7% 3MoY to +3.2% 3MoY with a forecast of +3.4% 3MoY. Claimant Count Change in November increased from 26.4K to 28.8K with a forecast of a decrease to 24.5K. AUD/USD AUD is falling against USD during today's Asian session, continuing to develop a "bearish" impulse formed at the end of last week. The instrument is testing the level of 0.6840, losing about 0.08%. The macroeconomic statistics from Australia failed to provide any significant support to AUD. Australian Home Loans in October grew by 0.6% MoM after the decline of 3% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 1% MoM. Investment Lending for Homes in October grew by 2% MoM after an increase of 1.1% MoM in September. Today, investors are focusing on the speeches by the US Fed representatives, Lael Brainard and Charles Evans, but interesting macroeconomic statistics from Australia will not appear until Thursday, when the November labor market report comes out. USD/JPY USD declines slightly against JPY during today's Asian session, developing a correctional impulse formed the day before. At the same time, the instrument is still located not far from the local highs at 109.71, which the dollar managed to update at the beginning of the month. Slight support for the yen on Wednesday is provided by statistics on the trade balance, which came out slightly better than their negative forecasts. Exports from Japan in November fell by 7.9% YoY after falling 9.2% YoY in October. Analysts had expected decline by 8.6% YoY. Imports for the same period decreased by 15.7% YoY, accelerating their decline from the previous –14.8% YoY. Market forecasts suggested a decline of only 12.7% YoY. The total Trade Balance for November was JPY –82.1B with a forecast deficit of JPY 369B. In October, the Trade Balance showed a surplus of JPY 15.7B. XAU/USD Gold prices have been stable during today's Asian session, continuing a similar trend in the last two trading sessions. Investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions, preferring to wait for new drivers to appear at the market. Macroeconomic statistics from the United States provided moderate support to the dollar. Industrial Production in November increased by 1.1% MoM after a decrease of 0.9% MoM a month earlier. The indicator also turned out stronger than its forecasts for an increase of 0.8% MoM. However, interest in risk is currently not so strong. The euphoria from the conclusion of the preliminary trade agreement between the USA and China has long passed, and the landslide victory of conservatives in the UK elections can now threaten with complication in negotiations with the EU on a trade agreement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-12-19 08:54 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR is showing moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after falling the day before. The instrument adds about 0.07%, testing the level of 1.1130 for breakout. Moderate support for the euro is provided by data from Germany released on Wednesday. German Ifo Business Climate Index in December rose from 95.1 to 96.3 points against the forecast of growth to 95.5 points. German Current Assessment for the same period rose from 98 to 98.8 points, which also turned out to be better than expectations of 98.1 points. German Business Expectations in December increased from 92.3 to 93.8 points against expectations of 93 points. At the same time, data on consumer inflation from the euro area limited the development of "bullish" sentiment on the instrument. In November, Consumer Price Index decreased by 0.3% MoM, while in October the indicator showed a weak increase by 0.1% MoM. In annual terms, inflation remains in the area of 1% YoY. GBP/USD GBP is relatively stable during today's Asian session, consolidating after a steady two-day decline. Currently, the pair is trading near 1.3080, losing about 0.02%. Moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the UK released yesterday did not provide significant support to GBP, although it contributed to some reduction in "bearish" pressure. Consumer Price Index in the UK in November rose by 1.5% YoY, which was 0.1% better than expectations and coincided with October data. In monthly terms, Consumer Inflation increased by 0.2% MoM after falling by the same amount a month ago. Retail Price Index in November also increased by 0.2% MoM, accelerating after a decline of 0.2% MoM in October. Today, investors expect the publication of Bank of England's meeting minutes on the interest rate. It is expected that the monetary policy parameters will remain unchanged, and only 2 out of 9 board members can speak out for a cut in rates. NZD/USD NZD is showing uncertain growth during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bullish" impulse formed the day before. The pair is adding about 0.09% preparing to test 0.6600. The instrument is supported by good macroeconomic data from New Zealand. New Zealand's GDP in Q3 2019 increased by 0.7% QoQ after a growth of 0.1% QoQ in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.6% QoQ. In annual terms, GDP growth amounted to 2.3% YoY, which also turned out to be better than the data of the previous period at 2.1% YoY, but slightly worse than market expectations of 2.4% YoY. Additional support for the rate was provided by export data. In November, export volumes increased by 5.23B dollars after an increase of 5.01B dollars a month earlier. The trade deficit in November decreased slightly and amounted to –4.82B dollars. USD/JPY USD is slightly strengthening against JPY at today's Asian session, again approaching local highs of December 13. The yen is reacting with restraint to the publication of the Bank of Japan decision on the interest rate. As expected, the key rate remained unchanged at –0.1%. At a follow-up press conference, representatives of the Bank noted that the Japanese economy continued moderate growth, but significant risks were still present. Annual inflation rates are located near the level of +0.5% YoY, which is significantly lower than the target levels of the regulator. XAU/USD Gold prices are relatively stable during today's Asian session, adding about 0.10%. Demand for gold persists amid continued growth in market uncertainty. The euphoria from the conclusion of the first phase of the trade agreement between the United States and China has long passed, and now investors are trying to understand how the parties will act further to come to a full agreement. In addition, markets are concerned about the process of trade negotiations between the UK and the EU, which should begin after the completion of the Brexit procedure before the end of January 2020. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-12-20 08:49 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR is showing a moderate decline against USD during today's Asian session. The instrument is preparing to test the level of 1.1110, losing about 0.07%. The "bearish" trend replaced the uncertain growth, which was due to not the most successful macroeconomic statistics from the US on Thursday. US Existing Home Sales in November fell by 1.7% MoM after a 1.5% MoM growth last month. Analysts expected a decline of 0.2% MoM. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in December fell sharply from 10.4 to 0.3 points with a forecast of a decrease of only 8 points. During the day, investors expect publication of statistics from the United States on annual GDP growth rates for Q3 2019 (updated data) and the dynamics of Personal Income and Spending for November. The euro area is expected to release Consumer Confidence data in December, as well as Current Account balance statistics for October. GBP/USD GBP is relatively stable against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating after the next "bearish" session the day before. UK macroeconomic data released yesterday turned out to be worse than market expectations. Retail Sales in the UK in November fell by 0.6% MoM after zero dynamics in October. Analysts had expected growth by 0.3% MoM. In annual terms, Retail Sales growth slowed down from 3.1% YoY to 1% YoY, which also turned out to be worse than forecasts of 2.1% YoY. The results of the meeting of the Bank of England did not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the instrument, since they fully met the expectations of the market. The key interest rate was maintained unchanged at 0.75%, as well as the volume of the quantitative easing program at 435 billion pounds. 7 out of 9 board members voted to maintain the key rate at the same level. AUD/USD AUD shows moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, adding about 0.17%. AUD is still supported by the strong report on the Australian labor market released yesterday. The Employment level in Australia in November rose by 39.9K jobs after falling by 19K in October. Experts expected the employment to grow by14K only. The November Unemployment Rate fell from 5.3% to 5.2%, while analysts did not expect any changes. Participation Rate remained at the previous level of 66%. The development of "bullish" trend in the instrument is also facilitated by the publication of not-so-good macroeconomic statistics from the US on Existing Home Sales. USD/JPY USD declines slightly against JPY during today's Asian session, losing about 0.02%. Support for the yen is provided by macroeconomic statistics from Japan published on Friday. The national Consumer Price Index in November showed an increase of 0.5% YoY after an increase of 0.2% YoY in October. Analysts had expected a previous growth rate of 0.2% YoY. National CPI ex Food, Energy rose by 0.8% YoY in November, accelerating from 0.7% YoY. Experts expected the index to correct to 0.6% YoY. During the day, traders expect the release of data from the US on the dynamics of GDP growth for Q3 2019, as well as the publication of information on Personal Income and Spending of Americans in November. XAU/USD Gold prices are stable during today's Asian session, consolidating after a slight increase the day before. Support for the instrument, in addition to not the most successful macroeconomic statistics from the USA, is provided by the growth of uncertainty around future US-Chinese trade negotiations and the situation around the impeachment of Donald Trump. The House of Representatives voted in favor of impeachment, and now the president will have to stand trial in the Senate. However, given that the Senate is controlled by Trump's party members, it is unlikely that impeachment will take place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-12-23 08:53 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR is relatively stable against USD during today's Asian session. The instrument is trading near the opening level of 1.1079, reacting to weakening volatility in anticipation of Christmas holidays. Investors are still focused on the macroeconomic statistics from the United States, published last Friday. The updated annual GDP data confirmed the growth of the American economy by 2.1% YoY, and the price index of GDP increased by 1.7% YoY. At the same time, analysts expected an increase in GDP Price Index to 1.8% YoY. The greatest support to the US currency was provided by the data on Personal Income. In November, Personal Income increased by 0.5% MoM after growth by 0.1% MoM. Analysts had expected growth by 0.3% MoM. Personal Spending for the same period accelerated from 0.3% MoM to 0.4% MoM, which coincided with market forecasts. GBP/USD GBP shows a slight increase of 0.05% against USD during today's Asian session, continuing to test the level of 1.3000 for a breakdown. At the same time, the British currency remains downward in the short term and threatens to show the most significant decline since 2017 against the backdrop of a parliamentary vote on the Brexit deal with the EU. This time, the British Parliament approved the agreement, and Boris Johnson got the opportunity to implement Brexit until the deadline on January 31, 2020. It is also worth noting that the Parliament is trying to limit the duration of the transition period that will operate after Britain leaves the EU and will provide the United Kingdom with easy access to the European market. AUD/USD AUD shows moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, adding about 0.15%. The instrument develops a "bullish" impulse, formed in the middle of last week, and updates local highs of December 13. Australian macroeconomic statistics released on Monday does not provide any significant support to the pair. Private Sector Credit in November showed a slight increase of 0.1% MoM, while investors expected acceleration from 0.1% MoM to 0.3% MoM. In annual terms, credit growth slowed down from 2.5% YoY to 2.3% YoY. During the day, investors expect publication of data from the US on Chicago Fed National Activity and on Durable Goods Orders in November. USD/JPY USD is stable against JPY during today's Asian session, trading near the opening level of 109.39. Pressure on the instrument today is exerted by macroeconomic statistics from Japan. All Industries Activity Index went down by 4.3% MoM after an increase of 1.5% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at 0.2% MoM. On Monday, investors will be focused on macroeconomic statistics from the United States, while interesting data from Japan will not appear until tomorrow, when a meeting of the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Committee will take place. XAU/USD Gold prices are rising during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a weak "bullish" trend in the short term. The instrument adds about 0.20% and is trading near the local high, updated on December 12. A certain pressure on gold is exerted by a certain decrease in market tension at the end of the year against the background of reaching consensus on trade negotiations between the USA and China and finally setting a point in the protracted Brexit process. It is expected that the deal between the United States and China will be signed in early January, while the UK should leave the Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-12-24 08:48 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR shows flat dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating after a slight increase the day before. Market activity remains low due to Christmas holidays, and the amount of interesting news is noticeably reduced. Monday's macroeconomic statistics turned out to be contradictory. German Import Price Index in November increased by 0.5% MoM after a decrease of 0.1% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth of 0.4% MoM. In annual terms, the index grew from –3.5% YoY to –2.1% YoY, which also turned out to be slightly better than the forecasts of –2.3% YoY. American statistics showed weak growth in the volume of Durable Goods Orders. Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air in November grew by only 0.1% MoM after rising by 1.1% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected growth of 0.2% MoM. GBP/USD GBP shows slight growth during today's Asian session, trading near the opening level of 1.2933. The instrument is again trying to correct against the backdrop of the development of a steady decline of last week, which is due to the growth of risks of the hard Brexit. The British Parliament voted to approve the deal with the EU, so the UK will be able to complete the Brexit process before the end of January 2020. However, Boris Johnson is also trying to limit the duration of the transition period (up to December 2020), which may be too short to work out all the mechanisms for cooperation with the EU. Macroeconomic statistics published yesterday had a mixed effect on the pair. Insignificant support to the dollar was provided by data on the dynamics of New Home Sales in the United States. The indicator grew by 1.3% MoM in November after the decline by 2.7% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected negative dynamics to remain at –0.3% MoM. NZD/USD NZD has shown negative dynamics against USD at today's Asian session. The instrument loses about 0.14% and retreats from local highs, updated the day before (0.6638). New Zealand markets are closed on Christmas Day, so investor activity has declined markedly, and traders are focused on statistics from the United States. An additional source of drivers is the trade relationship between the United States and China. Support for the US currency was provided by China's statements on reducing import duties on 859 types of American goods for next year. USD/JPY USD is stable against JPY during today's Asian session, trading near the opening level of 109.38. Moderate pressure on the Japanese currency is exerted by Monday's macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Leading Index in October fell from 91.8 to 91.6 points with a neutral forecast. All Industries Activity Index for the same period decreased by 4.3% MoM after an increase of 1.5% MoM in September. Analysts had expected growth of 0.2% MoM. Coincident Index in October rose from 94.8 to 95.3 points with a forecast of 94.8 points. XAU/USD Gold prices show moderate growth during today's Asian session, adding about 0.25%. The instrument develops a "bullish" momentum formed the day before, as investors again began to raise doubts about the prospects for trade relations between the United States and China. On Saturday, Donald Trump said that the first phase of the agreement will be signed in the first half of January, but experts say that many important questions remain unanswered. China, in turn, said that from January 1, 2020, it will reduce import duties on a number of American goods, which should have a favorable effect on the subsequent stages of the negotiations between Beijing and Washington. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-12-26 EUR/USD EUR/USD EUR is stable against USD during today's Asian session, trading near the opening level of 1.1089. Activity in the market remains low due to the Christmas holidays and the approaching end of the year. In addition, no significant macroeconomic statistics are expected to be published by the end of the week, and the previous drivers seem to have exhausted themselves. Investors are still focused on trade talks between the US and China. On Tuesday, Donald Trump announced that the parties would sign a trade agreement at an official ceremony, but there was no exact timeline. During the day, investors expect publication of data on Initial Jobless Claims in the US for the week ending December 20, as well as on MBA Mortgage Applications. GBP/USD GBP is growing against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after a powerful "bearish" rally, caused by growing fears about the hard Brexit. The pound is trading at 1.2985, adding about 0.25%. After the British Parliament approved the deal with the EU, investors turned their attention to the so-called transition period, which will be valid until December 2020. It is expected that at this time the UK and the EU will be able to agree on all the nuances in order to maintain the simplified access of the UK to the EU market, and will also touch upon the issue of the Irish border. Analysts believe that one year may not be enough for this, but Boris Johnson insists that this period should not be extended. AUD/USD AUD is growing against USD during today's Asian session, again approaching the local highs, updated on December 13. The instrument adds about 0.14%. The market is characterized by an extremely low level of volatility, which is associated with the Christmas holidays and the approaching end of the calendar year. AUD is still supported by optimism about improving trade relations between the US and China after the announcement of consensus on the first phase of the agreement. Despite the absence of any details, including the deadline for signing the first phase of the agreement, the market is very optimistic, counting on a noticeable warming in relations between the two countries. USD/JPY USD shows quite an active increase against JPY during today's Asian session, adding about 0.15%. The growth of the US currency is due to the thin market, characterized by extremely low volatility due to the Christmas holidays. Thursday's macroeconomic statistics from Japan turned out to be ambiguous. Foreign Bonds Buying for the week ending December 20 decreased by 927.6B yen after an increase of 521.9B yen last week. Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks, by contrast, increased by 148.4B yen after a decrease of 53.3B yen over the past period. XAU/USD Gold prices are rising during today's Asian session, updating local highs of November 5. The instrument is trading near 1503.70. Gold is in demand amid some stabilization of stock markets, as well as due to the lack of specific information regarding the trade agreement between the United States and China. It is expected that the first phase of the deal will be signed at an official ceremony, which may take place in the first half of January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-12-27 EUR/USD EUR has shown strong growth against USD during today's Asian session, developing an uncertain "bullish" momentum from the beginning of the week. The instrument is testing the level of 1.1200, adding about 0.20%. The growth of the pair is largely due to technical factors, which are repeatedly amplified against the background of extremely low volatility and the "thin" market. During the day, investors are awaiting the publication of the Eurozone Economic Bulletin, as well as data on Retail Sales in Spain and the Unemployment Rate in Italy in November. GBP/USD GBP is correcting upwards against USD during today's Asian session, trading near local highs of December 23, updated the day before. The instrument adds about 0.10% and is actively testing the level of 1.3000 for a breakout. The growth of the British currency is largely due to technical factors, since there are few interesting macroeconomic statistics at the market, and overall volatility remains low due to the Christmas and New Year holidays. Macroeconomic data from the USA published the day before turned out to be contradictory. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending December 20 decreased from 235K to 222K, which was slightly better than forecasts of 224K. In turn, Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending December 13 decreased from 1.725M to 1.719M, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 1.691M. NZD/USD NZD continues quite active growth against USD, updating record highs of July 25. The instrument is trading near 0.6680, gaining 0.15%. The market is still characterized by extremely low volatility, as many traders prefer to stay out of the market, having gone on Christmas holidays. Moderate support for NZD, in addition to a number of technical factors, is provided by the pending signing of a trade deal between the United States and China. On Wednesday, the PRC representatives said they were in close contact with the US on the issue of agreeing on the details of the signing ceremony. In addition, the market was optimistic about China’s intention to reduce import duties on a number of US products from the beginning of 2020. USD/JPY USD is falling against JPY during today's Asian session, losing ground earned the day before. The instrument returned to levels below 109.50. Investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from Japan today. CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy accelerated in December from 0.6% YoY to 0.8% YoY, which turned out to be better than neutral forecasts. At the same time, Retail Sales in November decreased by 2.1% YoY after a record drop of 7% in October. Analysts had expected decline by 1.7% YoY. Over the same period, Industrial Production fell by 8.1% YoY after a decrease of 7.7% YoY last month. Analysts had expected growth by 0.9% YoY. XAU/USD Gold prices show a slight increase during today's Asian session, consolidating after a confident "bullish" rally in the last three trading sessions. The growth of the instrument is about 0.13%. The uptrend in prices is due to low trading volumes at the market due to Christmas and New Year holidays, as well as fluctuations in stock exchanges. In turn, pressure on gold is exerted by the growing prospect of signing a trade agreement between the United States and China, which could mark the beginning of a massive improvement in relations between countries, as well as a significant reduction in the risks of a slowdown in the global economy. However, the date of signing the first phase of the agreement is still unknown, and skeptics point to a lot of unresolved issues between the parties of the trade conflict. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-12-30 Current trend GBP starts regaining positions after a strong decline. The reason for the uptrend was in weakening of USD. In the Brexit run-up, the concerns of UK residents are becoming more apparent. At the beginning of next year, the British economy can expect a record decline in population growth. The reason is the reluctance of citizens of Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales to remain in the UK, since after leaving the EU most benefits will be cancelled, so obtaining Irish citizenship is very popular. USD is weakening under the pressure of the continued decline in the USD Index, which at the moment is 96.450 points, which corresponds to the levels of the beginning of summer. Because the stock exchanges will close tomorrow, the dynamics of the pair may continue within the current trend due to the reluctance of investors to take risks and leave positions open for the holidays. Support and resistance The downtrend was interrupted, and the price, breaking the resistance line, consolidated above it. The Alligator indicator gave a buy signal, and the AO oscillator duplicated it, showing the transition through the zero line. The growth prospects are high, but the price should consolidate above the highs of December 18 to enter the deal. Resistance levels: 1.3160, 1.3500. Support levels: 1.3000, 1.2820. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 USD/CAD General review Current trend The pair continues to decline, due to both the weakness of the US dollar and the strength of the Canadian one. In the absence of macroeconomic data, CAD is strengthening due to high prices for oil, one of Canada's main export commodities. Quotes are supported by reports of new US air strikes in Iraq and Syria on targets of the Hezbollah military group supported by Iran, which could aggravate the situation in the Middle East. The second support factor was the EIA report. It recorded a decrease in US crude oil inventories by 5.474 million barrels with a forecast of a decrease by 1.724 million. USD decline is likely to continue this week. There is still no final decision on a trade deal with China, but its signing is expected in early January. The conclusion of a trade agreement could trigger an increase in energy demand and support CAD. Support and resistance Price continues to move within the global "triangle" pattern. Today, an attempt has been made to test the support line. However, its breakout requires a large volume of positions, which is not seen on the market right now due to the upcoming holidays. Indicators are still signaling sales, but closing a weekly candle may change their readings. Support levels: 1.3020, 1.2840. Resistance levels: 1.3080, 1.3280. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 Morning Market Review 2020-01-08 EUR/USD Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is moderately declining, developing a “bearish” momentum formed yesterday. Tuesday’s EU macroeconomic statistics slightly supported the instrument; however, the market remains unstable amid the intensification of the crisis in US-Iranian relations after the death of a high-ranking Iranian military commander as a result of a US Air Force military operation. In November, EU Retail Sales accelerated growth from +1.7% YoY to +2.2% YoY, which was significantly better than market expectations of +1.3% YoY. Also, the index grew by 1.0% MoM after a decline by 0.3% MoM last month. Consumer inflation data were more restrained. In December, CPI accelerated from +1.0% YoY to +1.3% YoY, which coincided with analysts' forecasts. GBP/USD Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair develops flat trading dynamics in the short term. There was a lack of UK key macroeconomic statistics on Tuesday, so the news from the United States prevailed. Also, the market continues to closely monitor the development of the conflict in the Middle East, fearing the onset of full-fledged military clashes between the US and Iran. Yesterday, it became known that Iran launched missile strikes on two US facilities in Iraq, attacking the Ain al-Assad airbase and Erbil airfield. USD position was supported by data on business activity. In December, according to ISM, the Service PMI grew from 53.9 to 55.0 points, ahead of forecasts by 54.5 points. Today, investors are focused on the UK Halifax House Price Index release for December and the US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change publication for the same period. AUD/USD Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is growing uncertainly, being corrected after yesterday’s record decline. Now, the instrument has added about 0.08%, testing the level of 0.6871 for a breakout. The price is moderately supported by the data from Australia. Thus, Building Approvals for November rose by 11.8% MoM after a decrease of 7.9% MoM last month. Analysts expected a more modest increase in the rate of +2.0% MoM. In annual terms, the index slowed down the decline from –22.9% YoY to –3.8% YoY. USD/JPY Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is falling, correcting after growth at the beginning of the week. Now, the instrument is trading at 108.33, while at the opening it fell sharply to 107.64 (a local low since October 10, 2019), which was caused by conflicting reports from the Middle East. After the US missile attack in Iraq, where a high-ranking Iranian general died, the relations between the countries deteriorated sharply, and the market even started talking about the possibility of a large-scale war. Yesterday, there was information that Iran launched two missile attacks on US military facilities in Iraq. Published Japanese macroeconomic statistics affected JPY ambiguously. Thus, Average Cash Earnings for November fell by 0.2% YoY after zero dynamics last month. Analysts expected a significant increase of +0.6% YoY. At the same time, the consumer confidence index in December unexpectedly increased from 38.7 to 39.1 points against the forecast of 38.0 points. XAU/USD Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are again actively rising, renewing record highs. At the opening of the trading session on Wednesday, the instrument managed to reach the level of 1611.06, above which gold was previously traded in March 2013 but later the rate was noticeably corrected. The reason for such a powerful growth is the US-Iranian conflict in the Middle East, which could develop into a full-fledged war. A meeting of the UN Security Council is due to take place in New York on Thursday, at which, as expected, ways to resolve the situation will be discussed. However, previously, the media reported that the United States refused a visa to Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Jawad Zarif, which could only increase tension between the countries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Morning Market Review 2020-01-09 EUR/USD EUR is recovering against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from the local low at 1.1100, updated the day before. Moderate support for the instrument, in addition to a number of technical factors, is provided by some market stabilization after optimistic reports from Donald Trump, who made it clear that he is not considering the possibility of starting a war with Iran. After the missile strike inflicted by Iran on American military bases in Iraq, investors were visibly nervous; however, the words of the US president in addressing the nation returned the market sentiment back to normal. Washington decided to confine itself only to new economic sanctions. In turn, macroeconomic statistics published in Europe on Wednesday turned out to be controversial, which contributed to the strengthening of "bearish" sentiments. Industrial Sentiment in the euro area industry in December fell from –9.1 to –9.3 points, with investors forecasting a slight increase to –9 points. Business Climate for the same period fell from –0.21 to –0.25 points, which also turned out to be worse than market expectations of –0.16 points. GBP/USD GBP is showing slight growth during today's Asian session, adding about 0.11%. The instrument is supported by the de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict after optimistic statements by Donald Trump, who decided to confine himself to only economic measures of influence on Tehran. Investors also take a lead from the publication of BRC Retail Sales Monitor. In December, comparable sales grew by 1.7% YoY after a decline of 4.9% YoY last month. The indicator did not reach its forecasts of 2% YoY. During the day, investors expect the speech of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, and tomorrow the attention of traders will be focused on the publication of the US labor market report for December. AUD/USD AUD is again showing flat dynamics against USD, trying to reverse into correctional growth after a sharp decline on Tuesday. Moderate support for the instrument is provided by the fact of temporary stabilization of US-Iran relations, which have noticeably worsened after the US Air Force attack on Baghdad airport killing a high-ranking Iranian general. Addressing the nation yesterday, Donald Trump stressed that the US are not looking for a military solution to the conflict and announced only new economic sanctions. Macroeconomic statistics released during today's Asian session is controversial. Investors were optimistic about data showing an increase in Exports from Australia in November by 2%. Imports for the same period lost about 3%, which led to a marked increase in the trade surplus from AUD 4.502B to 5.800B, which still turned out to be slightly worse than the forecasts of AUD 5.915B. USD/JPY USD shows moderate growth against JPY during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a powerful "bullish" impulse that formed yesterday. USD adds about 0.13%, testing the level of 109.20 for a breakout. The main factor in the sharp depreciation of the yen was the de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict after Donald Trump addressed the nation, which significantly reduced the demand for safe haven currencies. Additional support to USD was provided by ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, which reflected the growth of 202K jobs in December, which was significantly higher than market expectations of 160K. Last month, employment growth in the private sector was only 124K. Tomorrow, investors are awaiting the publication of the December report on the US labor market. XAU/USD Gold prices are relatively stable during today's Asian session after a sharp decline yesterday when the instrument retreated from its 7-year highs. The reason for yesterday's sharp increase in gold prices was Iran’s retaliatory attack on US military bases located in Iraq. However, in the evening of the same day, addressing the nation, Donald Trump ruled out the use of force in the current phase of the conflict, which brought down the growth in demand for safe assets, and the instrument declined sharply. USD was also supported by the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, which turned out better than market expectations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Morning Market Review 2020-01-13 EUR/USD EUR shows active growth during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the correctional impulse that formed at the end of last week. The instrument adds about 0.17%, testing the level of 1.1130 for a breakout. Friday's data on the December US labor market turned out to be worse than market expectations, which contributed to the development of "bearish" sentiments towards USD. Nonfarm Payrolls grew by 145K in December, contrary to forecasts of an increase of 164K. Last month the value increased by 256K. In December, Average Hourly Earnings slowed from 3.1% YoY to 2.9% YoY with neutral forecasts. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate remained at 3.5% as expected. GBP/USD GBP is trading slightly lower against USD during today's Asian session, opening with a slight gap down. The instrument is testing the level of 1.3030, located not far from the local lows of January 9. The pressure on GBP is exerted by the approach of the next Brexit deadline, and despite the fact that at the moment the British government has no serious obstacles to its implementation, market sentiment remains alarming. The British economy is not in the best condition, so traders fear that the country's exit from the EU could be very painful. Today, investors expect the publication of statistics from the UK. In particular, data on Industrial Production and GDP dynamics for November are expected to be released. AUD/USD AUD is showing strong growth against USD during today's Asian session, continuing to develop the "bullish" momentum formed at the end of last week. The instrument adds about 0.13%, approaching the level of 0.6920. Support for AUD is provided by rather weak data on the December US labor market, which turned out noticeably worse than their forecasts. In addition, data on Retail Sales in Australia were optimistic. In November, sales grew by 0.9% MoM after zero dynamics last month. Analysts had expected growth by 0.4% MoM. Today, moderate support for the instrument is provided by TD Securities Inflation data from Australia. In December, the indicator increased by 0.3% MoM and 1.4% YoY after rising by 0.0% MoM and 1.5% YoY last month. USD/JPY USD shows moderate growth against JPY during today's Asian session, trading near a local high of December 26, 2019 (109.67). The dollar managed to update local highs at the end of last week, despite the fact that closer to the end of the afternoon session the instrument went into the red zone, falling under the pressure of a weak report on the US labor market in December. In general, the demand for safe assets remains low, although it cannot be said that investors completely forgot about the conflict between the US and Iran. A certain tension undoubtedly persists. On Friday, for example, the US administration imposed new sanctions on the Iranian steel industry, which is unlikely to further normalize relations. XAU/USD Gold prices again returned to decline during today's Asian session after a brief increase at the end of last week, when the position of USD weakened after the publication of a disappointing labor market report for December. More confident growth of the instrument was hindered by positive trends on stock exchanges, as well as low demand for safe assets. In turn, by the end of January, demand for gold may show moderate growth due to the approach of the Chinese New Year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Morning Market Review 2020-01-14 EUR/USD EUR shows a slight increase against USD during today's Asian session, developing a "bullish" momentum formed at the end of last trading week. On Monday, the buying sentiment for EUR was supported by weak December report on the US labor market, which was released last Friday. There were few interesting macroeconomic statistics at the beginning of the new week, so investors concentrated on previous publications, waiting for the signing of a trade deal between the United States and China. Today, the ECB representative Yves Mersch is scheduled to speak; however, the main attention will be focused on statistics on consumer inflation from the US. GBP/USD GBP shows ambiguous trading dynamics during today's Asian session, testing for a breakdown the important level of 1.3000, which it reached for the first time in the current calendar year. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from the UK published on Monday. Industrial Production in November decreased by 1.2% MoM after an increase of 0.4% MoM a month earlier. Analysts expected a decline of 0.1% MoM. In annual terms, production fell by 1.6% YoY after a decline of 0.6% YoY in October. Forecasts suggested a decrease of 1.4% YoY. GDP in November also showed negative dynamics, having decreased by 0.3% MoM after a slight increase of 0.1% a month earlier. Experts expected zero dynamics. Such weak results of the British economy led to the resumption of talk about the possibility of a new interest rate cut by the Bank of England. AUD/USD AUD shows multidirectional trading dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating after updating local highs of January 7 the day before. The instrument is trading near the opening mark, testing the level of 0.6900 for a breakdown. Investors focus on the block of statistics on exports and imports from China. In addition, traders expect the imminent signing of a trade agreement between the United States and China, which provides significant support to the pair. Exports from China in December grew by 7.6% YoY after a decline of 1.3% YoY a month earlier. Experts expected an increase of 3.2% YoY. Imports for the same period rose sharply by 16.3% YoY after rising by 0.5% YoY in November. The indicator also turned out to be significantly better than its forecasts of 9.6% YoY. USD/JPY USD is showing moderate growth against JPY during today's Asian session, updating the highs of May 2019. The pair is trading near 110.05, adding about 0.12%. Published macroeconomic statistics from Japan has a mixed effect on JPY. Bank Lending in Japan in December slowed from the previous 2.1% YoY to the current 1.8% YoY, which turned out to be worse than analysts had expected. Current Account n.s.a. fell in November from JPY 1816.8B to 1356.8B, which was only slightly better than forecasts of JPY 1423.3B. The balance of foreign trade in November showed a deficit of JPY 2.5B, while in October the balance remained surplus at JPY 254B. Experts expected a larger deficit of JPY 412.6B. XAU/USD Gold prices show negative dynamics during today's Asian session, developing a "bearish" momentum formed yesterday. The instrument is trading near 1535.00, losing about 0.60%. The pressure on gold is exerted by moderate optimism, which investors show in anticipation of a trade agreement between the United States and China. The ceremony of signing the first phase of the contract should be held at the White House on January 15. De-escalation of tensions in the Middle East also contributes to lower demand, after the United States decided to limit itself to economic measures to influence Tehran. Last Friday, Washington imposed additional sanctions on Iran, threatening with new measures if necessary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.