MikhailLF Posted September 16, 2019 Share Posted September 16, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-09-16 08:40 (GMT+2) EUR/USD The European currency ended last week trading with moderate growth against the US dollar, updating local highs of August 27. Positive dynamics of the instrument was facilitated by the improved prospects for resolving the US-Chinese trade conflict. After a series of concessions by the parties, the negotiations, which should begin in October, have a high chance of ending successfully. In addition, Donald Trump spoke out for the possibility of reaching some kind of interim solution by signing a temporary agreement that would resolve a number of basic issues. The focus of European investors remained on the outcome of the ECB meeting on Thursday. As expected, the regulator lowered the deposit rate to the level of –0.50%, and also announced the resumption of the quantitative easing program. In addition, the ECB has revised its basic forecasts for GDP and inflation. GBP/USD The British pound rose significantly against the US dollar on Friday, updating local highs of July 25. The instrument was supported by news on Brexit, according to which the Democratic Unionist Party, which is an ally of the ruling Conservative party, said it would approve an agreement with the EU if an item on the Irish border was excluded from it. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson also spoke on the "moderate optimism" in the matter of concluding a deal with the EU. During today's Asian session, the instrument is trading in both directions. The Rightmove House Price Index decreased by 0.2% MoM after a decrease of 1.0% MoM in the previous month. YoY, the indicator slowed from +1.2% to +0.2%. AUD/USD The Australian dollar showed growth against the US currency on Friday, updating local highs of July 31. Optimistic signals about the US-Chinese trade negotiations, which may end with the signing of an interim agreement between the parties, contributed to the "bullish" sentiment on the instrument. During today's Asian session, the pair is also trading higher. However, the overall activity of buyers remains restrained. More confident development of the uptrend is hindered by weak statistics from China. In August, Retail Sales in China slowed from +7.6% YoY to +7.5% YoY, which turned out to be much worse than market expectations of +7.9% YoY. Industrial Production growth rate decreased from +4.8% YoY to +4.4% YoY against the forecast of +5.2% YoY. USD/JPY The US dollar closed last week with a fairly steady growth against the Japanese yen, updating local highs of August 1. "Bullish" activity remains on Monday, but the instrument showed a significant gap down at the opening and is now forced to recoup to its previous local highs. The US dollar is in demand amid improved prospects for US-Chinese trade negotiations, after the parties made mutual concessions, and Donald Trump announced the possibility of concluding an interim agreement. The macroeconomic statistics from the US published on Friday was contradictory. Retail Sales in August decreased from +0.8% MoM to +0.4% MoM, which, however, turned out to be better than expectations of +0.2% MoM. At the same time, Michigan Consumer Sentiment in September showed an increase from 89.8 to 92.0 points with a forecast of 90.9 points. Oil Oil prices showed a decline last week, despite the fact that on September 10 quotes updated local highs of early August. The instrument was supported on Friday by Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, which reflected a decrease in the number of rigs from 738 to 733 units. The new week trading opened with a sharp gap up. The rise in oil prices was facilitated by news from Saudi Arabia, where on September 14 supporters of the Yemeni rebel movement started a fire at an oil refinery, which halved oil production. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-09-17 08:49 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed a decline against USD on Monday, retreating from its local highs of August 27 updated at the end of last week. The pressure on the instrument was provided by weak data from China, as well as by a number of statements by representatives of the ECB that noted the low growth rates of the European economy. Retail sales in China in August showed a slowdown from 7.6% to 7.5% YoY with a forecast of +7.9% YoY. Over the same period, Industrial Production slowed down from +4.8% YoY to +4.4% YoY, which also turned out to be worse than the forecast of +5.2% YoY. During today's Asian session, the instrument shows corrective growth, awaiting the publication of European statistics on business sentiment. However, analysts do not foresee a confident growth of the pair, therefore, only weak USD exchange rate could perhaps help the “bulls”. GBP/USD GBP fell against USD at the beginning of the current trading week, reacting to several factors. Investors are still concerned about the slow pace of development around Brexit. There is not much time left until the deadline, and Boris Johnson is trying more to enlist the support of his supporters, rather than looking for ways to get the agreement approved in parliament. Johnson’s meeting with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker was unsuccessful. Moreover, the British Prime Minister reiterated his intention not to request a postponement of Brexit. It is likely that Johnson will try to ignore the parliament’s ban on the hard Brexit, but this threatens to exacerbate the political crisis in the UK, which will negatively affect the country’s economy if it does leave the EU at the end of October. AUD/USD AUD showed ambiguous trading dynamics against USD on Monday, falling under pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics from China. In addition, investors are actively reacting to the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East and the increased threat of a US war with Iran. Last weekend, the oil refining facilities of Saudi Arabia were attacked, which caused a rapid increase in oil prices. The US was quick to blame Tehran for the attacks, and Donald Trump announced his readiness to retaliate after confirming the suspicions of Saudi Arabia. During today’s Asian session, the pair shows a downward trend. Investors are focused on statistics from Australia and published minutes of the RBA meeting of September 3, at which the rate was maintained unchanged at 1.00%. Australian Housing Price Index in Q2 2019 showed a decline of 0.7% QoQ after a decrease of 3.0% QoQ last month. Analysts had expected a decrease of 1.0% QoQ. USD/JPY USD showed strong growth against JPY on Monday. However, it is worth noting that the instrument opened with a significant gap down, so by the end of the trading session USD only managed to recoup its losses at the opening. Meanwhile, JPY is supported by the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East after a series of attacks on oil refineries in Saudi Arabia. The United States accused Iran of assault and declared readiness to retaliate if Saudi Arabia confirms Tehran’s responsibility for the attack. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading in both directions. Investors expect the situation in the Middle East to develop and are awaiting the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the USA on retail sales and industrial production in August. Oil Oil prices showed ambiguous dynamics on Monday, after the market opened with record growth of more than 10% amid a worsening situation in the Middle East. At the weekend, oil refineries in Saudi Arabia were attacked by drones, which led to a reduction in Saudi production by half. The United States accused Iran of assault, saying it was ready to strike back if Saudi Arabia confirms Washington’s suspicions. In addition, Donald Trump approved the use of petroleum products from the US strategic reserve to help stabilize supply and demand in the market. On Tuesday, investors focus on the American Petroleum Institute Crude Oil Stock report for the week as of September 13, which last time showed a decrease in reserves of 7.2 million barrels. There is little hope that today’s report will be positive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-09-18 08:48 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed strong growth against USD on Tuesday, recovering from an equally strong decline of the instrument at the beginning of the week. The growth of EUR was largely technical in nature, while macroeconomic statistics remained contradictory. German ZEW Economic Sentiment in September showed an increase from –44.1 to –22.5 points with a forecast of –38.0 points. German ZEW Current Conditions for the same period fell from –13.5 to –19.9 points, which turned out to be worse than the forecasts of –15.0 points. The EU ZEW Economic Sentiment in September grew slightly from –43.6 to –22.4 points, exceeding forecasts of –37.4 points. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Investors expect the publication of the results of the Fed meeting, at which, as expected, the interest rate will be reduced by 0.25 points. GBP/USD GBP rose against USD on Tuesday, updating local highs of July 19. The instrument is supported by timid optimism regarding the Brexit deal, as there has been some change in mood in the parliament. At the same time, threat of hard Brexit remains, and earlier, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that he would not ask the EU for another postponement, as required by the bill recently adopted by the parliament. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading with a decrease. On Wednesday, investors are focused on statistics from the UK on consumer and industrial inflation in August, as well as a decision by the Fed on interest rate. AUD/USD AUD showed ambiguous dynamics against USD on Tuesday, recovering to the opening levels from local lows of September 6. The instrument managed to strengthen against the background of the publication of good macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Industrial production in August showed an increase of 0.6% MoM after a decrease of 0.1% MoM last month. Analysts had expected increase by +0.2% MoM. Capacity Utilization Rate in August also increased from 77.5% to 77.9%, exceeding the forecast of 77.6%. Today, the instrument is declining, pending the publication of the Fed decision on the interest rate. In addition, investors are waiting for the release of a report on the Australian labor market on Thursday. USD/JPY USD showed ambiguous trading dynamics against JPY on Tuesday, updating local highs of early August. Yesterday's macroeconomic statistics from the US provided some support for USD, but moderate demand for safe haven assets leveled the entire “bullish” advantage of the dollar. During today's Asian session, the instrument is again trading in both directions, awaiting the Fed's decision on the interest rate. Statistics from Japan was contradictory. Japanese exports went down by 8.2% YoY in August after the decline by 1.5% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected even larger decline by –10.9% YoY. Imports collapsed by 12.0% YoY for the same period after a decline of 1.2% YoY last month. Forecasts suggested a decrease of 11.2% YoY. The deficit of the adjusted Trade Balance in August amounted to 136.80B yen, which is slightly worse than the previous value of –126.751B yen, but noticeably better than market expectations of –268.40B yen. Oil Oil prices fell on Tuesday, after Saudi Arabia reported that the previous production volumes could be fully restored within a few weeks. Over the weekend, oil refineries in Saudi Arabia were attacked by drones, which halved production volumes and intensified the crisis in the Middle East. Oil reacted to these events with significant growth, updating highs of the end of May. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report published on Tuesday reflected a moderate increase in reserves for the week as of September 13 at 0.592 million barrels after a decrease of 7.200 million barrels over the past period. On Wednesday, in addition to the publication of the Fed decision on the interest rate, investors expect the release of EIA Crude Oil Inventories report. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 19, 2019 Share Posted September 19, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-09-19 08:37 (GMT+2) EUR/USD The European currency again showed a decline against the US dollar on Wednesday, partially offsetting the active growth of the instrument the day before. The development of the downtrend was promoted by contradictory macroeconomic statistics from Europe, as well as by the results of the meeting of the Fed, at which the US regulator made a predicted decision to reduce the interest rate to 2.00%. Euro area's CPI in August showed a slight increase of 0.1% MoM after a decline of 0.5% MoM last month. Analysts expected a more active growth of +0.2% MoM. In annual terms, inflation growth remained at the previous level of 1% YoY. Construction Output in the euro area in July fell by 0.73% MoM after rising by 0.64% MoM last month. The indicator was worse than the forecast of +0.70% MoM. In annual terms, production volumes slowed down from +1.6% YoY to +1.1% YoY, which turned out to be slightly better than the forecast of +1.0% YoY. GBP/USD The British pound showed a decline against the US dollar on Wednesday, retreating from its local highs, updated the day before. Pressure on the instrument was provided by statistics on Consumer Inflation published in the UK. CPI in annual terms slowed down from +2.1% YoY to +1.7% YoY, which turned out to be worse than the forecast of +1.8% YoY. Core CPI for the same period strengthened by 1.5% YoY with the forecast of 1.8% YoY. In monthly terms, the index growth accelerated from 0.1% MoM to +0.4% MoM, which did not reach the forecast of +0.7% MoM. Another negative factor for the pound is still the situation around Brexit. Earlier the European Commission approved the possibility of delaying the deadline for Brexit, but reminded the UK of financial obligations. Today, investors are focused on the Bank of England meeting on the interest rate. Given the high degree of uncertainty surrounding Brexit, the British regulator is not expected to make any changes to the monetary policy vector, however, official comments will continue to be important. AUD/USD The Australian dollar showed an active decline on Wednesday and continues the steady development of the downtrend during today's Asian session. The Fed’s decision to lower the interest rate to 2.00%, which was published the day before, only slightly affected the position of the American currency, since it had long been incorporated into current quotes. Investors are focused on the statistics on the Australian labor market today. Employment Change in August showed an increase of 34.7K jobs after an increase of 41.1K last month. Analysts expected only +10.0K. Participation Rate increased from 66.1% to 66.2%, which also turned out to be better than the forecast. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate in August expectedly increased from 5.2% to 5.3%. USD/JPY The US dollar closed Wednesday trading with moderate growth against the Japanese yen, updating local highs of August 1. During today's Asian session, the instrument shows an active decline, retreating from updated highs. In addition to a number of technical factors, pressure on the pair is exerted by the decision taken by the Fed yesterday to lower the interest rate to 2.00%. Despite the fact that the decision of the US regulator was quite predictable, a certain intrigue persisted, and some analysts expected more active actions of the regulator, as repeatedly called on by Donald Trump. Jerome Powell did not disclose any plans for the remaining year, noting only that they “will act according to the situation.” Today, investors are focused on the Bank of Japan meeting on the interest rate. As expected, the Japanese regulator left the key rate unchanged at –0.1%, indicating growing risks and a high level of uncertainty in the global economy. Oil Oil prices continued a moderate decline on Wednesday, developing a downtrend since the beginning of the week, when the instrument opened with a sharp upward gap in response to a series of attacks on the oil production capacities of Saudi Arabia. On Tuesday, quotes plummeted amid statements by Saudi Arabia about the full restoration of oil production in a few weeks. Additional pressure on the instrument yesterday was exerted by the EIA report indicating an increase in oil inventories for the week as of September 13 by 1.1M barrels. The volume of oil production in the United States did not change and amounted to the previous 12.400M barrels per day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-09-20 08:38 (GMT+2) EUR/USD The European currency showed strong growth against the US dollar yesterday, at some point reaching levels of opening trading on Wednesday, which ended with a fairly confident decline of the instrument. At the close of yesterday's session, the euro retreated, having lost most of its gains. The reason for the appearance of a corrective pullback was good data from the United States. Existing Home Sales in August increased by 1.3% MoM after growth of 2.5% MoM last month. Analysts had expected decline by 0.4% MoM. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in September fell from 16.8 to 12.0 points, which was still better than market expectations of 11.0 points. During today's Asian session, the euro is trading with an increase again. Investors expect publication of German PPI and preliminary data on Consumer Confidence in the euro area in September. GBP/USD The British pound rose significantly against the US dollar on Thursday, updating local highs of July 15. The Bank of England Meeting Minutes published the day before did not affect the dynamics of the instrument, since they fully met market expectations. The British regulator unanimously decided to keep the interest rate at the current level of 0.75%. The volume of the quantitative easing program remained at around 435 billion pounds. In turn, statistics on Retail Sales in the UK exerted little pressure on the pair. In August, the indicator fell by 0.3% MoM after growth of 0.4% MoM last month. In annual terms, the index has slowed from +3.4% YoY to +2.7% YoY, with the forecast of +2.9% YoY. The main factor behind the growth of the pound was the comments of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who noted that he believed in the conclusion of the Brexit deal before October 31. AUD/USD The Australian dollar is slightly correcting against the US currency during today's Asian session, recovering from two days of steady decline. Contradictory data on the Australian labor market put pressure on the instrument on Thursday. Despite a steady increase in employment by 34.7K jobs in August, the country's Unemployment Rate reached new highs at 5.3%, which is likely to push the RBA to new measures to stimulate the economy. Nevertheless, after a series of world regulators meetings, the attention of investors is once again shifting to the process of negotiations between the US and China, which should begin in October. So far, the prospects for a new round of trade talks look very encouraging. USD/JPY The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Thursday, retreating from local highs, updated the day before. The decrease in the instrument is largely technical in nature, since the market situation is not changing much. Demand for the Japanese currency is supported by a further decrease in forecasts for world GDP growth and the uncertain situation around Brexit and the new round of US-Chinese trade negotiations. During today's Asian session, investors focus on consumer inflation statistics from Japan. In August, the National Consumer Price Index slowed down from the previous +0.5% YoY to +0.3% YoY, which turned out to be twice worse than forecasts. The investment indicators were also negative. Foreign Bonds Buying for the week as of September 13 slowed from 727.2 to 476.0 billion Japanese yen. Foreign investment in the Japanese stocks fell by 971.9 billion yen after a decrease of 161.5 billion. Oil Oil prices corrected on Thursday, departing from local lows, updated after a steady decline in quotes at the beginning of the week. The situation with drone attacks on Saudi oil production complexes is gradually fading into the background, but now investors are paying attention to the depletion of oil reserves in Saudi Arabia, which will not allow it to restore supply volumes just as easily in the event of new attacks. Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East remains tense. The day before, US President Donald Trump ordered to significantly increase sanctions against Iran, which could lead to a new round of crisis in the region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-09-23 08:43 (GMT+2) EUR/USD The European currency showed a moderate decline against the US dollar on Friday, returning to previous local lows of September 17. The development of negative dynamics was facilitated by weak macroeconomic statistics from Europe. Germany's Producer Price Index fell by 0.5% MoM in August after rising by 0.1% MoM in the previous month. Analysts expected a decline of 0.2% MoM. YoY, the index growth slowed down from +1.1% to +0.3%, which also turned out to be worse than forecast of +0.6% YoY. Preliminary data on Consumer Confidence in the euro area also did not provide significant support for the euro. In September, the indicator slightly increased from –7.1 to –6.5 points, which turned out to be better than expectations of –7.0 points. During today's Asian session, the pair is growing, being influenced by technical factors. Investors are awaiting the publication of Markit PMI in Europe for September. GBP/USD The British pound fell against the US currency on Friday, retreating from updated local highs of July 5. Investors are again concerned about the threat of a tough Brexit, which serves as an additional source of market uncertainty. Speaking on Friday, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said that Britain’s withdrawal from the EU without an agreement would lead to border controls between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Juncker noted that he still counts on concluding a final deal, but the risks of a “tough” scenario cannot be ignored. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading upwards, and investors expect new drivers to appear on the market. With the opening of the American trading session, investors expect publication of Markit PMI in the US for September. AUD/USD The Australian dollar showed a steady decline against the US currency on Friday, updating local lows of September 4. The instrument remains under pressure amid the worsening growth prospects of the global economy and the lack of visible progress in US-Chinese trade negotiations, which should become more active in early October. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading with a slight increase. Investors are focused on Commonwealth Bank PMI in Australia. In September, according to preliminary estimates, Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.9 to 49.4 points, which turned out to be worse than expectations of 50.9 points. Services PMI increased from 49.1 to 52.5 points, which was significantly better than expectations of 45.3 points. Composite PMI in September rose from 49.3 to 51.9 points, confidently consolidating above the psychological mark of 50 points. USD/JPY The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Friday, continuing to develop the “bearish” impulse formed the day before. Investors are holding long positions amid a worsening crisis in the Middle East. At the end of last week, US President Donald Trump approved the dispatch of US troops to Saudi Arabia to strengthen defense after the attack on oil production facilities that occurred the week before last. It is too early to speak of the beginning of a full-fledged military operation, but alarming signals worry investors and increase interest in safe assets. Today, the pair is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers at the market. Japanese markets are closed due to the Autumn Equinox Day, so all the attention of traders is focused on American and European statistics. Oil Oil prices rose slightly on Friday, but returned to negative dynamics closer to the end of the afternoon session. Quotes are supported by rising tensions in the Middle East after an attack on key oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia the week before last. The Kingdom announced a military operation north of the city of Hodeidah, while Donald Trump approved the sending of troops to Saudi Arabia to strengthen defense capabilities. In addition, it became known that Riyadh is actively importing oil production equipment from the United States, so that by the end of the month most of the stopped facilities can be restored. Baker Hughes report released last Friday indicated a sharp decrease in the number of active oil rigs in the US from 733 to 719 rigs, which also provided significant support for quotes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-09-24 08:37 (GMT+2) EUR/USD The euro showed a decline against the US dollar on Monday, continuing the development of an uncertain "bearish" impulse formed at the end of last week. The pressure on the instrument yesterday was exerted by German PMI data, which again came out worse than market expectations. Markit Services PMI in May declined from 54.8 to 52.5 points with the forecast of the decline to 54.3 points. Over the same period, Manufacturing PMI fell from 43.5 to 41.4 points with a positive forecast of 44.0 points. Composite PMI in September fell from 51.7 to 49.1 points, which also turned out to be worse than expected 51.4 points. The situation with the euro area's indices as a whole is very similar to German data, especially in the manufacturing sector. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading in both directions, and investors are expecting IFO Business Sentiment in Germany for September. GBP/USD The British pound fell against the US dollar at the beginning of the new week, showing the development of a negative impulse formed last Friday. Pressure on the instrument is still exerted by the prospects of a tough Brexit, which will have the most negative consequences for the British economy. On Monday, the macroeconomic background in the UK remained empty, so investors were focused on the US data on business activity, which supported USD. Markit Manufacturing PMI in September showed an increase from 50.3 to 51.0 points. Services PMI rose from 50.7 to 50.9 points, which, however, did not reach the forecast of 51.3 points. Composite PMI for September strengthened from 50.7 to 51.0 points, which turned out to be significantly better than expectations of 49.6 points. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Investors expect publication of data on the volume of placements of 30-year government bonds and public sector borrowing for August. In addition, the market is awaiting the release of a report from CBI on the volume of industrial orders in September. AUD/USD The Australian dollar showed ambiguous trading dynamics on Monday, remaining in the area of local lows updated on September 20. Statistics on Australian PMI turned out to be contradictory and did not provide significant support for the national currency. The Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.9 to 49.4 points in September, which turned out to be worse than the forecast of 50.9 points. Services PMI increased from 49.1 to 52.5 points, which was significantly better than expectations of 45.3 points. Composite PMI in September rose from 49.3 to 51.9 points, confidently consolidating above the psychological mark of 50 points. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Investors are not in a hurry to open new positions before the speech of the head of the RBA, Philip Lowe, who is likely to speak about the prospects for further easing of monetary policy. USD/JPY The US dollar showed a decline against the Japanese yen on Monday, updating local lows of September 10. Nevertheless, closer to the end of the afternoon session, the instrument managed to recoup, which was caused by the publication of good statistics on business activity from the USA, which looked especially good in contrast to weak European data. Japanese markets were closed on Monday due to the Autumn Equinox Day. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Some pressure on the yen was exerted by Japanese data on business activity. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in September fell from 49.3 to 48.9 points, which turned out to be worse than market expectations. Oil Oil prices showed a slight increase on Monday, responding to improved prospects for the restoration of previous oil production volume in Saudi Arabia. However, the instrument again finished trading in the red zone, which was caused by a short-term strengthening of the US currency. Additional pressure on the quotes was provided by weak data on German Manufacturing PMI. Today, investors are awaiting API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report for the week as of September 20. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-09-25 08:43 (GMT+2) EUR/USD The euro showed moderate growth against the US dollar on Tuesday, recovering from an amplitude decline in the instrument the day before when the instrument was actively sold amid the publication of weak data on business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany. German statistics on Tuesday turned out to be significantly better, although in this case there were some negative points. Current Assessment from the IFO in September showed an increase from 97.3 to 98.5 points with a forecast of 97.0 points. Business Climate index for the same period increased from 94.3 to 94.6 points against the forecast of 94.5 points. Business Expectations turned out worse than expected and fell in September from 91.3 to 90.8 points against the forecast of growth to 91.8 points. During today's Asian session, the euro is trading with an increase again. Investors are awaiting the outcome of the ECB meeting and the speech of the representative of the European regulator Benoit Coeuré. GBP/USD The British pound showed growth against the US dollar yesterday, recovering from new local lows of September 17. The growth of the instrument was facilitated by news that the UK Supreme Court found the suspension of parliament illegal. Thus, the parliament should begin its work on Wednesday, which will give more time to work out a decision on the agreement with the EU. Meanwhile, the position of Boris Johnson remains unchanged, and no real progress has been achieved in negotiations with the European Commission, so a new delay in Brexit is the best scenario for today. The macroeconomic statistics from the UK published on Tuesday was contradictory. Public Sector Net Borrowing in August rose by 5.766 billion pounds after a decline of 1.472 billion in the previous month. Analysts expected a growth of 6.650 billion. CBI Industrial Trends Orders indicated a decrease in the volume of orders in September from –13 to –28 points, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations. AUD/USD The Australian dollar strengthened significantly against the US currency on Tuesday, recovering from an uncertain start of the week. The instrument was supported by the results of a speech by RBA head Philip Lowe, who expressed optimism regarding the future prospects of the Australian economy, which, in his opinion, will demonstrate steady growth in the near future, but no significant acceleration should be expected. A positive effect should be achieved by a tax refund, which will increase income from households. Regarding the prospects for monetary policy, Lowe still takes a “dovish” position and believes that in the future the Australian economy may need an additional rate cut. During today's Asian session, the instrument again shows a steady decline, losing positions earned the day before. USD/JPY The US dollar continued its active decline against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, updating local lows of September 9. The development of negative dynamics in the instrument was facilitated by the weakening of the US currency over the market, while interest in the yen was maintained against the backdrop of increasing uncertainty in the Middle East and around Brexit. Yesterday's US and Japanese statistic was ambiguous. The Japanese Leading Index in July showed an increase from 93.6 to 93.7 points, which turned out to be better than forecasts. Coincident Index for the same period increased from 99.5 to 99.7 points, while investors expected growth to 99.8 points. Data from the United States indicated a decrease in Richmond Manufacturing Index in September from 1 to –9 points with a forecast of –11 points. Redbook Retail Sales Index for the week as of September 20 showed a decline of 1.1% MoM after a decrease of 0.9% MoM over the past period. Oil Oil prices fell significantly on Tuesday, responding to weak macroeconomic statistics from Europe, which intensified the risks of a slowdown in the global economy. At the same time, investors are still counting on a quick recovery in oil production in Saudi Arabia, which also puts pressure on quotes. Another “bearish” factor was the report of the American Petroleum Institute on oil reserves. For the week as of September 20, the report reflected growth in stocks by 1.400 million barrels after growth of 0.592 million barrels for the previous period. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of an official report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-09-26 08:51 (GMT+2) EUR/USD European currency showed a steady decline against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local lows of September 12. The reason for the appearance of downward dynamics was the technical factors of correction of USD, which underwent sales on Tuesday due to the reports of the beginning of Donald Trump's impeachment procedure. Despite the fact that it is unlikely that it will be possible to get approval for impeachment in parliament, which is controlled by the Republicans, the situation itself may adversely affect the political situation in the country. An additional factor of USD growth is an increase in the yield of treasury bonds and an in corporate demand. Macroeconomic statistics from the United States also provided moderate support to the dollar. New Home Sales in August showed an increase of 7.1% MoM after a decrease of 8.6% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth by 3.5% MoM. GBP/USD The British pound fell against the US dollar on September 25, retreating under the onslaught of the growing US currency. Additional pressure on the instrument was exerted by weak macroeconomic publications from the UK. Gross Mortgage Approvals in August fell from 43.303K to 42.576K applications, which turned out to be worse than the forecasts. The main factor contributing to the weakening of the pound, is still the situation around Brexit. The market was optimistic about the decision of the UK Supreme Court to declare the suspension of parliament unlawful. However, now the parliament is plunging into political battles with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, which does not contribute to the development of a final agreement with the EU. AUD/USD The Australian dollar showed an active decline paired with the US currency, updating local lows of September 3. The instrument reacted with sales to a massive strengthening of the US dollar across the entire market, while the fundamental background did not change much. Today, the instrument also is trading with an increase. Investors expect the publication of statistics from the United States. The focus is on updated data on the dynamics of US GDP for Q2 2019, as well as statistics on Pending Home Sales and KC Fed Manufacturing Index. USD/JPY The US dollar rose significantly against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, retreating from its local lows of September 9, updated the day before. The emergence of corrective dynamics in the instrument, in addition to the large-scale growth of the American currency across the entire market, was facilitated by the statements of the Bank of Japan Board member Takako Masai, who noted that the regulator is ready for new measures to stimulate the economy in case inflation slows down to the target level of 2%. Masai also emphasized increased external economic risks amid the approaching Brexit deadline and the lack of progress in US-Chinese trade negotiations. Oil Oil prices showed a noticeable decline on Wednesday, but managed to recover closer to the end of the afternoon session. The development of negative dynamics was facilitated by the worsening prospects for a trade deal between the United States and China, after Donald Trump criticized China’s position at the UN General Assembly on Tuesday. At the same time, Trump unexpectedly spoke out for the possibility of improving the situation around Iran. The US Department of Energy report released on Wednesday also put pressure on quotes. According to the report, over the week as of September 20, Crude Oil Inventories rose by 2.412M barrels after growth of 1.058M barrels over the past period. Analysts had expected a decrease of –0.249M barrels. Refinery Utilization Rates in the United States fell by 1.4% to 89.9%, which exceeded forecasts. US oil production rose to 12.500M barrels per day, compared to 12.400M last week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-09-27 08:43 (GMT+2) EUR/USD The European currency showed a decline against the US dollar on Thursday, updating local lows from mid-May 2017. Pressure on the instrument is still exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from the euro area, which indicates not the most optimistic prospects for the development of the European economy. In addition, technical factors play against the euro. Despite the fact that the instrument has approached local lows traders are still eager to bet on its decline, while its volatility is rapidly declining. During today's Asian session, the pair is correcting upwards. Nevertheless, the market is just waiting for the appearance of new drivers on Friday. Investors will be focused on statistics on Business Sentiment and Consumer Confidence in the euro area in September. Traders are also interested in German Import Price indices and are awaiting a speech by ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos. GBP/USD The British pound remains downward paired with the US currency, updating local lows of September 12. The main factor contributing to the decline in the pound remains the uncertain situation around Brexit. There is less and less time for concluding a final agreement with the EU, while Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the British Parliament are engaged in an internal political struggle. Johnson reaffirmed his position regarding the request for an additional delay, despite the fact that non-compliance with the adopted law threatens Johnson with a prison. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Slight support for the pound is provided by data on Gfk Consumer Confidence. In September, the indicator rose from –14 to –12 points, which turned out to be better than expectations of –14 points. AUD/USD The Australian dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the US currency on Thursday. The morning growth of the instrument gave way to a decline after the opening of the American session, as the market was filled with relatively good macroeconomic statistics from the USA. Pending Home Sales in August increased by 1.6% MoM and 2.5% YoY, which turned out to be significantly better than the data for the previous period (–2.5% MoM and –0.3 % YoY) and the forecasts (+0.9% MoM and –1.9% YoY). PCE Prices in Q2 2019 increased by 2.4% QoQ after an increase of 0.4% QoQ in the previous period. The final annual data on US GDP indicated a 2% growth in the US economy in Q2 2019, which coincided with market forecasts. USD/JPY The US dollar showed a slight increase against the Japanese yen on Thursday, updating local highs of September 20. The strengthening of the US currency was facilitated by optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the United States. In addition, analysts note an increase in demand for USD amid increased political struggles in the US and the UK, as well as continued trade tensions. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading lower, despite the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation from Japan. Tokyo CPI ex Food and Energy (YoY) slowed down from +0.7% in September to +0.5%, with the forecast of +0.6%. Tokyo CPI for the same period slowed down from +0.6% YoY to +0.4% YoY, which turned out to be worse than the forecast of +0.8% YoY. Oil Oil prices showed ambiguous trading dynamics on Thursday. During the day, mainly "bearish" dynamics was observed, since Saudi Arabia is rapidly recovering oil production volumes, which decreased after the drones attack. Pressure on the instrument also persists after the publication of the US Department of Energy report, which indicated an increase in oil reserves with a simultaneous increase in production volumes to new record levels. In turn, optimism for the instrument comes from Donald Trump's statements that an agreement between the United States and China could be signed in the near future. In addition, the US President and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also signed a bilateral trade agreement, which will contribute to the growth of trade between the countries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-09-30 08:40 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed moderate growth against the US dollar on Friday, retreating from the lows of May 2017. The reason for the uptrend was the correctional sentiment and technical factors of the end of the week, intensified after the release of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Europe and the USA. Industrial Sentiment Index in euro area in September fell from –5.8 to –8.8 points with a forecast of –6.0 points. Business and Consumer Survey in September also showed strong negative dynamics, retreating from 103.1 to 101.7 points with a forecast of 103.0 points. Business Climate Index for the same period collapsed from 0.12 to –0.22 points with a forecast of 0.11 points. American statistics, in turn, disappointed with weak data on Durable Goods Orders. Uncertain statistics on Personal Spending also exerted pressure on the dollar. In August, the indicator slowed down from +0.5% MoM to +0.1% MoM with a forecast of +0.3% MoM. GBP/USD GBP continues to weaken against USD, updating local lows of September 9. Pressure on the British currency last Friday was exerted by a statement by Bank of England member Michael Saunders, who spoke out in favor of changes in interest rates due to the negative impact of external factors and growing uncertainty around Brexit. Meanwhile, the situation around Brexit continues to be complicated by the growing political struggle within the country. As reported by The Sunday Times last weekend, opposition parties in the British parliament are discussing the possibility of impeaching Boris Johnson. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. The pound expects the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the UK, including final data on the dynamics of UK GDP for Q2 2019. AUD/USD AUD showed moderate growth against USD on Friday, partially offsetting a steady decline in the instrument on Wednesday. The growth of the instrument was facilitated by the improvement of sentiment around the US-Chinese trade negotiations, which should resume on October 10-11 and will be held in Washington. Trump is very optimistic and is holding back the introduction of new import duties for the time being. The Chinese side also shows significant interest as Beijing has returned to the procurement of American agricultural equipment, as well as beef and pork. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Moderate support for the instrument is provided by Caixin PMI published in China. Manufacturing PMI in September increased from 50.4 to 51.4 points against the forecast of 50.2 points. USD/JPY USD showed moderate growth against JPY on Friday, updating local highs of September 19. The growth of the instrument at the end of last week was facilitated by weak data on consumer inflation from Japan. Tokyo Core CPI slowed in September from +0.7% YoY to +0.5% YoY, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of +0.6% YoY. Tokyo CPI in September grew by only 0.4% YoY, which turned out to be twice worse than market expectations. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Optimism from Japanese retail sales statistics was offset by weak manufacturing data. In August, Retail Sales grew by 4.8% MoM and 2.4% YoY with a forecast of 0.0% MoM and +0.9% YoY. According to preliminary estimates, Industrial Production collapsed in August by 1.2% MoM and 4.7% YoY with a forecast of –0.5% MoM and –1.8% YoY. Oil Oil prices showed a decline at the end of last week, responding to the rapid recovery of production in Saudi Arabia after the drone attack on the country's oil production capacity. In addition, investors reacted negatively to a partial ceasefire in Yemen after Yemeni Hussites made the same move last week. Thus, for some time, the parties managed to avoid further escalation of the conflict, which puts pressure on quotes. In turn, Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the US released on Friday provided moderate support for prices. During the reporting week, the number of drilling rigs in the United States decreased from 719 to 713 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-10-01 08:45 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed a decline against USD on Monday, updating record lows of May 2017. Pressure on the euro was provided by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Germany. Retail Sales in August showed a slowdown from +5.2% YoY to 3.2% YoY, which turned out to be worse than market forecasts of +3.3% YoY. On a monthly basis, the indicator grew by 0.5% MoM after a decline of 0.8% MoM in July but the volumes did not reach the expected level of +0.6% MoM. The most disappointing was the data on inflation. According to preliminary estimates, the German Consumer Price Index in September showed zero dynamics on a monthly basis and grew by 1.2% YoY, slowing down from the previous +1.4% YoY. Harmonized Consumer Price Index in September slowed down from +1.0% YoY to +0.9% YoY. During today's Asian session, the euro continues to trade lower. Investors expect publication of September statistics on inflation in the euro area, but market sentiment remains negative. GBP/USD GBP showed ambiguous dynamics against USD on Monday, having managed to update local lows of September 9. However, during the day the pound traded mainly with an increase, supported by revised UK GDP indicators for Q2 2019. According to updated data, the British economy grew in Q2 2019 by 1.3% YoY against the previous estimate of +1.2% YoY. On a quarterly basis, the indicator remained unchanged at –0.2% QoQ. The development of flat dynamics of the instrument is also facilitated by the uncertain situation around the political crisis in the UK. The opposition parties of the British parliament are seriously discussing the idea of a vote of no confidence in the current government, which could subsequently lead to a new postponement of Brexit and even to a second referendum. AUD/USD AUD showed a decline against USD on Monday and maintains its previous "bearish" sentiment during today's Asian session. The instrument was under pressure from ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Inflation data from TD Securities in September showed a slowdown in annual terms from +1.7% YoY to +1.5% YoY. In monthly terms, the indicator slightly increased by 0.1% MoM after zero dynamics last month. Today, pressure on the Australian dollar is exerted by the RBA's expected decision to lower the interest rate from 1.00% to 0.75%. USD/JPY USD continues to trade against JPY with an increase, updating local highs of September 19. The development of the "bullish" dynamics of the instrument on Monday was facilitated by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Industrial production in August decreased by 1.2% MoM and 4.7% YoY after the increase by 1.3% MoM and 0.7% YoY. Analysts expected the appearance of negative dynamics, but they counted only at –0.5% MoM and –1.8% YoY. In turn, retail sales for August came out significantly better than their forecasts. In monthly terms, the growth rate was +4.8% MoM after a decrease of 2.3% MoM last month and a zero forecast. In annual terms, sales rose 2.0% YoY after a decrease of 2.0% YoY in July. Analysts had expected growth by 0.9% YoY. During today's Asian session, the pair is under pressure from weak data on Manufacturing PMI in Japan. The Jibun Bank PMI in September remained at the previous level of 48.9 points, indicating stagnation of production activity. Oil Oil prices showed a steady decline on Monday, responding to the weak prospects for China's economic growth. In addition, investors are waiting for the resolution of the trade conflict between the United States and China. Despite the optimistic start of the ongoing negotiations, which will enter the final stage on October 10, the market is not inclined to be overly optimistic about Donald Trump's statements. Another negative factor for oil was the rapid restoration of previous production volumes by Saudi Arabia. However, in order to achieve this, the kingdom had to turn to its oil reserves, so it is not clear whether Saudi Aramco really managed to return to its previous levels. Today, oil prices show a slight increase. Investors are focused on the publication Markit and ISM Manufacturing PMI in September. In addition, traders expect an API Weekly Crude Oil Stock as of September 27. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-10-02 08:48 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR showed moderate growth against USD on Tuesday, departing from the updated local lows of May 12 2017. The growth of the euro was largely technical in nature, since the macroeconomic background from Europe remained ambiguous. Preliminary data on the Consumer Price Index in September indicated a slowdown in inflation from +1.0% YoY to +0.9% YoY with a forecast of +1.0% YoY. Core CPI, on the contrary, rose from +0.9% YoY to +1.0% YoY, which was in line with forecasts. Manufacturing PMI in the euro area in September fell from 47.0 to 45.7 points, which is the lowest since 2012. Germany was hit harder than others, with its Manufacturing PMI falling from 43.5 to 41.7 points. At the same time, it is worth noting that indexes have long been in the stagnation zone. With the opening of the US session, the euro was boosted by weak data on US business activity in the manufacturing sector. According to data from ISM, in September the indicator crashed from 49.1 to 47.8 points against the forecast of growth to 50.1 points. GBP/USD The British pound showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on Tuesday, having managed to update local lows of September 4. The pound was supported by weak data on business activity in the USA, while the British statistics remained contradictory. Markit Manufacturing PMI in the UK in September showed an increase from 47.4 to 48.3 points against the forecast of 47.0 points. Nationwide House Price Index in September decreased by 0.2% MoM after zero dynamics in August. Analysts expected +0.1% MoM. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading with a decrease. The pound was under pressure from the data on BRC Shop Price Index. In August, prices fell by 0.6% YoY, continuing the previous negative trend of –0.4% YoY. AUD/USD The Australian dollar showed an active decline against the US currency on Tuesday, updating record lows of March 2009. The weakening of the instrument was caused by the quite expected RBA move to further mitigate monetary policy: the bank lowered its key interest rate from 1.00% to 0.75%. The regulator’s follow-up statement pointed to growing external economic risks due to the declining global economy, rising protectionist sentiment, as well as increased uncertainty surrounding US-Chinese trade negotiations and the situation with Brexit. USD/JPY The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen on October 1, retreating from updated local highs of September 19. The growth of the Japanese currency was facilitated by corrective sentiment for the dollar across the entire spectrum of the market, which intensified with the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics on business activity in the United States. ISM Manufacturing PMI in September crashed from 49.1 to 47.8 points against the forecast of growth to 50.1 points. Japanese statistics on business activity came out better than the forecasts, but could not provide significant support to the yen. Tankan Large Manufacturers Index fell from 7 to 5 points against the forecast of a decrease to 2 points. Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index retreated from 23 to 21 points, contrary to forecasts of a decline to 20 points. In turn, the yen was supported by data on the labor market. The Unemployment Rate in the country in August remained unchanged at 2.2%, while analysts had expected it to rise to 2.3%. Oil Oil prices showed ambiguous dynamics on October 1, falling under the influence of conflicting factors. The growth of quotes was facilitated by the information that the production volumes of the largest oil producing countries decreased in Q3 2019. In turn, the rapid recovery in Saudi Arabian production had a negative effect on the instrument. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report as of September 27 also provided moderate support for quotes. US oil inventories for the week showed a decrease of 5.92 million barrels after rising by 1.40 million barrels over the past period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted October 3, 2019 Share Posted October 3, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-10-03 08:38 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR rose moderately against USD on Wednesday, updating local highs of September 25. The euro was supported by weak macroeconomic data on US business activity published on Tuesday. ISM Manufacturing PMI in September crashed from 49.1 to 47.8 points against the forecast of growth to 50.1 points. There was significantly less interesting macroeconomic statistics from the US and the euro area yesterday, but this did not prevent the instrument from maintaining a "bullish" sentiment. USD has come under pressure from weak US data. The ADP Employment Change reflected a decline in September from 157K to 135K with a forecast of 140K. During today's Asian session, the pair is traded in both directions, awaiting the appearance of new drivers in the market. Investors are focused on Services PMI data from the US and the euro area. GBP/USD The British pound showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on Wednesday. During the day, the instrument traded mainly with a decrease, however, with the publication of weak data from the USA, it managed to correct. Pressure on the pound was exerted by the UK Construction PMI. In September, it fell from 45.0 to 43.3 points, although analysts did not predict changes in the indicator. In addition, the market reacted to the speech of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who said that the government had prepared a new version of the agreement with the EU, under which it is not supposed to create additional customs checks on the Irish border or near it. Johnson expects approval of the agreement by October 10; otherwise the government will continue to prepare a no-deal Brexit. AUD/USD The Australian dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the US currency on Wednesday, closing the session with almost zero result. The decline in the instrument in the morning proceeded under the influence of previous factors, while with the opening of the American session, the Australian dollar was able to recoup. The ADP Employment Change reflected a decline in September from 157K to 135K with a forecast of 140K. ISM NY Business Conditions in September fell from 50.3 to 42.8 points, which turned out to be significantly worse than the forecast of 47.5 points. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading with an increase. The statistics on Australian PMIs turned out to be quite stable, which provided some support to the instrument. AiG Services index went up from 51.4 to 51.5 points in September. A similar indicator from Commonwealth Bank slightly decreased from 52.5 to 52.4 points. USD/JPY The US dollar showed a steady decline against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, updating local lows of September 25. The yen showed growth, despite the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Consumer Confidence Index in August fell from 37.1 to 35.6 points against the forecast of 36.9 points. A decrease in the indicator to the lowest levels since 2011 is facilitated by the rapid increase in sales tax in Japan, which will significantly affect household spending. During today's Asian session, the pair is traded in both directions, awaiting the appearance of new drivers in the market. Oil Oil prices showed a steady decline on October 2, reacting to the publication of a report by the US Department of Energy. In the week as of September 27, US Crude Oil Inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels to 422.6 million barrels. The market forecast growth of only 1.567 million barrels. At the same time, the report reflected a decrease in US oil production from 12.500 to 12.400 million barrels. Some support for oil quotes was provided by the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who, speaking at an Energy Forum in Moscow, noted that Russia intends to continue to comply with the terms of the OPEC+ deal, and is also ready to consider and use all available tools to stabilize the market situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-10-04 08:47 (GMT+2) EUR/USD The European currency showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on Thursday, closing with a slight advantage of the "bulls". During the day, buyers sentiments prevailed, which allowed the euro to update the local highs of September 25. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by sharply increased prospects for a new trade war between the US and the EU. The day before, the WTO approved the intention of the US administration to introduce 10% trade duties on passenger aircraft and 25% duties on agricultural products from Europe in response to EU subsidies to Airbus. The new duties are supposed to be implemented on October 18. At the same time, the WTO pointed to the mirror situation with US subsidies to Boeing, however, the decision to increase tariffs will be considered only in 2020. Anyway, the market is wary of a new large-scale trade conflict, especially given that the conflict with China has not yet been fully resolved. Weak macroeconomic statistics from the euro area put additional pressure on the euro on Thursday. Markit Composite PMI in the EU in September showed an increase from 51.9 to 50.1 points against the forecast of 50.4 points. GBP/USD The British pound showed strong growth against the US dollar on Thursday, updating local highs of September 25. However, the instrument failed to consolidate at the new levels, and by the time the afternoon session ending, it had lost most of its advantage. The pound is supported by some progress on the Brexit issue. Boris Johnson presented an alternative compromise plan for the Irish border, which found a positive response in the camp of the EU leadership. Meanwhile, weak macroeconomic statistics continued to exert pressure on the British currency. Markit Services PMI in the UK in September fell from 50.6 to 49.5 points, again dropping into the stagnation zone. Analysts had expected a decline to 50.4 points only. AUD/USD The Australian dollar showed growth against the US currency on Thursday, developing a slight correctional momentum formed the day before. At the same time, macroeconomic statistics from Australia remained ambiguous and provided almost no support to the instrument. The Commonwealth Bank Services PMI in September showed a decrease from 52.5 to 52.4 points with a forecast of 52.5 points. Australian Trade Surplus fell in August from AUD 7.253 billion to AUD 5.926 billion, while the market was counting on a reduction of only AUD 6.000 billion. The decrease in the balance surplus was due to a sharp drop in exports from Australia in August by 3.00% after an increase of 0.36% in the previous month. During today's Asian session, the pair is again trading upwards, strengthening against the backdrop of a weak US dollar, which is awaiting publication of the September US labor market report. USD/JPY The US dollar continues to weaken against the Japanese yen, updating new local lows. The day before, the instrument fell below 106.50, where it was last traded on September 5. The yen is again in demand amid growing fears of investors about a slowdown in the global economy and the onset of a recession in the United States. In addition, US macroeconomic indicators are increasingly worse than market forecasts, which, given pressure from Donald Trump, may force the Fed to return to the idea of further weakening monetary policy. However, the prospects for a new round of rate cuts are also observed in Japan, where the regulator is extremely concerned about the slowdown in inflation and the growth of external pressure factors. Oil Oil prices showed an active decline on Thursday, responding to the aggravation of previous fears about a decrease in demand for oil products amid further growth in production volumes. Poor macroeconomic statistics from the US also did not add optimism, provoking the resumption of talk about a possible recession in the US economy. In addition, investors are concerned about the intention of the US administration to introduce increased import duties against the EU from October 18, which will also negatively affect the volume of world trade and will spur the growth of protectionist sentiments. Today, investors expect the publication of the September report on the US labor market, which, given the leading ADP report, may come out worse than its forecasts. Investors are also waiting for the release of a new report from Baker Hughes on active oil rigs in the United States. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-10-08 08:52 (GMT+2) EUR/USD European currency showed a moderate decline against the US dollar on Monday, retreating from updated local highs of September 25. Pressure on the euro was provided by weak macroeconomic statistics from Germany. August Factory Orders decreased by 0.6% MoM after a decrease of 2.1% MoM in the previous month. Analysts expected a more significant decrease of –1.5% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator collapsed in August by 6.7% YoY after a decrease of 5.0% YoY in July. Experts expected a decrease of 4.6% YoY. The dollar, in turn, tracks the resumed trade negotiations between the US and China. The meeting between Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Liu He and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer is scheduled for Thursday. GBP/USD The British pound showed a slight decrease against the US dollar on Monday. Pressure on the instrument continues to be exerted by the uncertain situation around Brexit. The new plan on the Irish border, which was proposed by the British government led by Boris Johnson, so far meets only cautious optimism in the camp of EU leaders, but negotiations are ongoing, and there is a chance that the EU will agree to the proposed conditions. UK macroeconomic statistics released on Monday also put pressure on the pound. Halifax Housing price Index in September showed a decrease of 0.4% MoM after an increase by 0.2% MoM last month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.1% MoM. In 3 months YoY, the indicator slowed down its growth from +1.8% 3m/YoY to +1.1% 3m/YoY, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations of +1.6% 3m/YoY. BRC Retail Sales published last night showed a 1.7% YoY decrease in September after a 0.5% YoY decrease last month. AUD/USD The Australian dollar showed a decline against the US currency on Monday, interrupting the development of an ultra-short-term "bullish" trend, which brought the instrument to local highs of October 1. Pressure on the instrument was provided by weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia, as well as the alarming start of new negotiations between the United States and China. It became known that China will not make concessions on the issue of reducing subsidies for its own industry. AiG Construction PMI data released yesterday showed a decline in September from 44.6 to 42.6 points, which turned out to be worse than average market expectations. Today the pair is growing again, despite the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China. ANZ Job Advertisements in September showed an insignificant increase of 0.3% MoM after declining by 2.6% MoM in the previous month. NAB Business Survey in September showed an increase from 1 to 2 points, while NAB Business Confidence for the same period decreased from 1 to 0 points. Chinese Caixin Services PMI in September decreased from 52.1 to 51.3 points with the forecast of the increase to 52.9 points. USD/JPY The US dollar rose significantly against the Japanese yen on Monday, recovering to the levels of October 2. The yen reacted by lowering to the revision of official estimates of the Japanese economy for the near future. Additional pressure was exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Coincident Indicators in August declined from 99.7 to 99.3 points with the forecast of 101.1 points. The Leading Indicators Index for the same period fell from 93.7 to 91.7 points with a forecast of 93.6 points. Today, the instrument is responding to ambiguous statistics from Japan on Household Spending and Average Cash Earnings. In August, Household Spending increased by 1.0% YoY, accelerating from the previous value of +0.8% YoY. The market expected growth of the indicator by 1.2% YoY. Average Cash Earnings in August fell by 0.2% YoY after falling by 1.0% YoY in July. Analysts expected a decline of 0.1% YoY. Oil Oil prices rose noticeably on Monday, reacting to the resumption of negotiations between the US and China. However, closer to the end of the afternoon session, quotes again went down, and the market began to express doubts about the success of the new round of negotiations, since it became known that China would not make concessions on the important issue of reducing subsidies for its own industry. Today, oil quotes show ambiguous dynamics, waiting for the appearance of new drivers on the market. Investors are focused on data on industrial inflation in the United States, as well as a speech by the representative of the US Fed, Charles Evans, and Chairman of the regulator, Jerome Powell. In addition, traders expect an API Weekly Crude Oil Stock as of October 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-10-09 08:50 (GMT+2) EUR/USD The European currency showed a moderate decline against the US dollar on Tuesday, continuing to develop a "bearish" impulse formed the day before. Pressure on the euro was exerted by ambiguous statistics on industrial production in Germany. On a monthly basis, production grew by 0.3% MoM in August after a decrease of 0.4% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected a decline of 0.3% MoM. However, in annual terms, production volumes only accelerated their decline from the previous –3.9% YoY to –4.0% YoY, which turned out to be significantly worse than expectations of –2.7% YoY. Another negative factor for the instrument remains the situation around the Brexit process. It became known the day before that Germany opposed Boris Johnson’s new plan to solve the problem with the Irish border, which significantly reduces the chances of concluding a final agreement before the end of October. GBP/USD The British pound fell against the US dollar on Tuesday, updating local lows of September 4. The appearance of steady downward dynamics was due to the failure in the negotiations of Boris Johnson with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who rejected the new plan for the Northern Irish border. Merkel noted that a Brexit deal is only possible if Northern Ireland remains in the EU customs union. After another failure at the talks, the British media announced the possibility of five key ministers leaving their posts, which would only complicate the work of Johnson's government. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister is still determined to carry out Brexit with or without an agreement on October 31. It is obvious that very soon the question of a new deferral of Brexit will again become acute, which, judging by the statements of Boris Johnson, remains unacceptable to him. AUD/USD The Australian dollar showed a slight decrease against the US currency on Tuesday, despite the fact that during the day the instrument was trading mainly with an increase. Pressure on the Australian currency was exerted by the US decision to add 28 Chinese companies to the black list of legal entities that are prohibited from business cooperation with American businesses. This fact sharply worsened consensus forecasts for a new round of trade negotiations, which are due to begin on Thursday. It also became known that the PRC stopped broadcasting NBA matches after basketball players expressed their support for the latest protests in Hong Kong. Today, the instrument is trading with weak growth, despite the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Westpac Consumer Sentiment in October showed a decline of 5.5% after falling by 1.7% in the previous month. USD/JPY The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, responding to a sharp deterioration in the prospects for a trade agreement between the PRC and the US in the upcoming round of talks on October 10, as well as to the publication of contradictory US macroeconomic statistics. NFIB Small Business Optimism in the US in September showed a decrease from 103.1 to 101.8 points against the forecast of 104.1 points. The Producer Price Index in September fell by 0.3% MoM after rising 0.1% MoM in August. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at +0.1% MoM. YoY, the production inflation slowed down from +1.8% to +1.4%, which also turned out to be worse than the forecasts of +1.8% YoY. IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism in October rose from 50.8 to 52.6 points with a forecast of growth of only 51.2 points. Oil Oil prices showed a decline on Tuesday, responding to a sharp deterioration in the prospects for a trade agreement between the US and China after Washington blacklisted some Chinese companies. Donald Trump also changed the tone of his rhetoric regarding negotiations, emphasizing that achieving quick results is unlikely. In turn, some support for the quotes was provided by the ongoing unrest in Iraq and Ecuador, which are likely to adversely affect oil production. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report reflected an unexpected growth of the stock by 4.13 million barrels in the week as of October 4, after a decrease of 5.29 million barrels over the past period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-10-10 08:46 (GMT+2) EUR/USD The European currency showed a slight increase against the US dollar on Wednesday, recovering from the "bearish" beginning of the week. Moderate support for the euro was provided by the weakening of the US currency against the backdrop of the speech of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell who spoke out in favor of resuming the asset purchase program, but emphasized that this was not a new round of quantitative easing. One way or another, the Fed sees obvious problems in the US economy and is preparing for new stimulation measures that will negatively affect USD. FOMC Minutes also put pressure on the instrument. As expected, the results were contradictory: 7 regulator officials called for a further reduction in rates by the end of the year, while 5 people expect them to remain at current levels. The remaining 5 Fed members do not exclude rate hikes in the range of 2.00%–2.25%. GBP/USD The British pound showed ambiguous dynamics of trading against the US dollar on Wednesday, but again ended the afternoon session in the red zone, updating local lows of September 4. The British currency was supported yesterday by news about possible EU concessions to Great Britain on the issue of back-stop on the Irish border. However, comments by representatives of the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland made the instrument return to a downtrend. The party will not support the agreement, which, according to its representatives, will lead to the creation of new customs barriers on the border with the UK. Today, the pair is growing. Investors expect the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the UK on the dynamics of industrial production and manufacturing production. In addition, the market is waiting for the release of updated estimates of UK GDP for August and the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney. AUD/USD The Australian dollar showed a slight decline against the US currency on Wednesday, continuing the development of the downward momentum formed at the beginning of the week. The Australian currency was pressured by Westpac Consumer Confidence Index published in Australia. In October, the indicator fell by 5.5% after a decrease of 1.7% over the past period. Today, the instrument is growing rapidly, receiving support from new data from Australia. Home Loans in August grew by 1.8% MoM after growth of 5.0% MoM in July. Analysts had expected increase by 0.2% MoM only. Consumer Inflation Expectations in October accelerated significantly from +3.1% to +3.6%, which turned out to be noticeably better than expectations of +3.2% USD/JPY The US dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, recovering from a slight decline the day before. The pressure on the Japanese currency is exerted by the renewed talks between the US and China, despite the presence of serious doubts about the possibility of concluding a final agreement. Meanwhile, published macroeconomic statistics from Japan also does not provide significant support to the yen. Wednesday's Machine Tool Orders data showed that in September, according to preliminary estimates, the index decreased by 35.5% YoY after falling by 37.0% YoY in August. Today the instrument shows ambiguous dynamics. Machinery Orders in August fell again by 2.4% MoM and by 14.5% YoY with a market forecast of –2.5% MoM and –10.8% YoY. Oil Oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday, gaining support from a new round of talks between the United States and China. Despite the remaining barriers and serious doubts, the market still hopes for conclusion of at least a temporary agreement. According to the media, Beijing was ready to conclude a partial agreement with Washington, under which China is committed to increase imports of American agricultural products, and the United States, in turn, will refuse to introduce new import duties on Chinese goods. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change report published on Wednesday put little pressure on the quotes. According to the data, the volume of crude oil in the United States for the week as of October 4 rose by 2.927 million barrels after rising by 3.100 million barrels for the previous period. Analysts had expected an increase in stocks of 1.413 million barrels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-10-11 08:48 (GMT+2) EUR/USD The European currency showed strong growth against the US dollar on Thursday, updating local highs of September 20. The reason for the emergence of positive dynamics for the instrument was not the most confident macroeconomic statistics from the United States, as well as the publication of Fed Minutes that signal in favor of continuing the cycle of interest rate cuts in the United States. The US Consumer Price Index in September showed a slowdown from 0.1% MoM to 0.0% MoM, which turned out to be worse than the forecast of 0.1% MoM. In annual terms, inflation remained at the previous level of 1.7% YoY with a forecast of 1.8% YoY. Core Consumer Price Index in September slowed down from 0.3% YoY to 0.1% YoY, while the market forecast a slowdown to 0.2% YoY. Today the pair is also growing. Investors expect publication of the September statistics on Consumer Inflation in Germany, as well as awaiting speeches by ECB President Mario Draghi and Vice President Luis De Guindos. GBP/USD The British pound rose sharply against the US dollar on Thursday, reacting to a joint statement by the prime ministers of Great Britain and Ireland. Boris Johnson held talks with his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar, which discussed the British government’s plan for back-stop on the Irish border. Varadkar said that Johnson’s plan could lead to a full agreement with the EU, despite a number of contentious issues. In any case, Johnson has overcome another step and can now resume full-fledged negotiations with Brussels. This is expected to happen this Friday. The final decision on Brexit may be made as early as next week at the EU summit. AUD/USD The Australian dollar showed moderate growth against the US currency on Thursday, updating local highs of October 1. Optimistic Brexit news, as well as the publication of weak statistics from the USA on consumer inflation, which will create additional pressure on the Fed in the choice of further monetary policy, contributed to the growth of consumer activity on the instrument. In addition, investors are awaiting the outcome of a new round of talks between the United States and China, and so far the market forecasts are very optimistic. Some analysts believe that the United States may conclude a currency agreement with China, which will help to avoid further increase in import duties. This will be the first step towards a final trade deal between countries. USD/JPY The US dollar rose significantly against the Japanese yen on Thursday, updating local highs of October 1. The development of the "bullish" dynamics of the instrument was facilitated by a noticeable decline in interest in safe assets in the market amid some progress on trade negotiations between the US and China. In addition, investors are optimistic about Brexit news. Macroeconomic statistics from the US and Japan released yesterday turned out to be ambiguous. The Japanese Core Machinery Orders in August showed a decrease of 14.5% YoY after an increase of 0.3% YoY last month. Analysts expected negative dynamics, but only at –10.8% YoY. In monthly terms, the indicator decreased by 2.4% MoM after a decrease of 6.6% MoM last month. The forecast was –2.5% MoM. Oil Oil prices showed strong growth on Thursday, responding to optimistic OPEC statements. In particular, Mohammed Barkindo, the leader of the group of exporters, noted that the cartel is considering all possible options to stabilize supply and demand in the market, and the question of extending the current OPEC+ agreement will be considered in December. In addition, moderate progress in the US-China trade negotiations is providing moderate support to oil quotes. In the focus of investors today, in addition to comments from US and Chinese officials, there is the publication of the Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the United States. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-10-14 08:46 (GMT+2) EUR/USD The European currency showed strong growth against the US dollar on Friday, updating local highs of September 20. Nevertheless, the instrument failed to consolidate at new highs, and by the end of the afternoon session, the dollar managed to significantly recoup. The euro is supported by optimistic signals about Brexit and the process of a new round of negotiations between the United States and China. Last week, Boris Johnson held a meeting with his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar, following which the parties were able to find common ground that could be enough to work out a final agreement. The EU praised Johnson's actions, noting at the same time that there is little time for a new deal. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Investors are playing out Chinese statistics on exports and imports, and also expect new drivers to appear at the market. Today, August data on industrial production in the euro area, as well as a speech by ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos are expected. GBP/USD The British pound showed steady growth at the end of last week, updating local highs of June 28. The instrument is actively rising amid optimistic signals from the Brexit negotiation process, which gives hope for Britain to leave the EU in late October with an existing agreement. It is expected that a vote on this issue in the British Parliament should take place within 24 hours after the EU summit, which will be held in Brussels on October 18, and until then the parties will try to agree on all remaining issues. This will be the first Saturday parliamentary session in 40 years. Today, the pair is expectedly correcting, waiting for the appearance of new signals. Investors will pay attention to a statement by Jon Cunliffe, the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Member, but one should not count on any important comments ahead of the Brexit final date. AUD/USD The Australian dollar showed strong growth against the US currency on Friday, updating local highs of September 19. The instrument is supported by good prospects for concluding a trade agreement between the United States and China. On Friday, the first round of new negotiations ended, following which it was decided to postpone the introduction of import duties on Chinese goods until mid-December. Donald Trump said that "the first phase of the deal was completed," however, the final preparation of documents will take a little more than a month. China, as previously planned, will noticeably increase imports of American agricultural products by 40-50 billion dollars a year. At the same time, the markets were somewhat disappointed by the absence of Huawei situation on the agenda. USD/JPY The US dollar showed growth against the Japanese yen on Friday, having received support from the emerging progress in the issue of trade negotiations between the US and China. In addition, interest in the "safe" yen is declining amid improved Brexit prospects. Friday's macroeconomic statistics from the United States was contradictory. Export Price Index in September showed a negative trend (–0.2% MoM) after a decline of 0.6% MoM in the previous month. Analysts expected 0.0% MoM. In annual terms, the decline in export prices intensified in September from the previous –1.4% YoY to –1.6% YoY, which also turned out to be worse than the forecasts of –1.5% YoY. At the same time, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index, according to preliminary estimates, rose sharply in October from 93.2 to 96.0 points with a forecast of 92.0 points. Oil Oil prices showed moderate growth last Friday, gaining support amid tensions in the Middle East. According to the media, the Iranian tanker was attacked in the Red Sea near Saudi Arabia. Victims and ship loss were avoided, but the market is concerned about possible retaliatory actions from Iran. A more confident growth of quotes on Friday was hindered by Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Report. After a long period of decline in the number of active rigs for the week as of October 11, the report reflected the growth of active platforms from 710 to 712 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-10-15 08:44 (GMT+2) EUR/USD The European currency showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on Monday, recording a slight decrease following the session. Pressure was exerted by contradictory macroeconomic statistics from the euro area, as well as increased skepticism regarding the Brexit negotiation process. The media got information that Brussels is not entirely satisfied with Boris Johnson's plan on the Irish border. Nevertheless, the parties continue active negotiations and hope to reach a compromise by October 31. Macroeconomic statistics showed the growth of Industrial Production in the euro area in August by 0.4% MoM after a decline of 0.4% MoM a month earlier. The indicator was stronger than the forecast of 0.3% MoM. However, in annual terms, Production continued to decline. In August, the indicator reached –2.8% YoY after a decrease of 2.1% YoY in July. Experts expected a decrease of 2.5% YoY. GBP/USD The British pound began the new week trading in both directions against the US dollar. The optimism regarding Brexit, which increased markedly at the end of last week, is gradually clouded by investor doubts, as it seems that Boris Johnson’s plan does not find support in Brussels. Today, GBP is trading with a slight increase. Investors are focused on the UK labor market report and the publication of the financial stability report from the Bank of England. It is expected that data on the labor market will indicate a slight slowdown in Average Earnings growth and maintaining Unemployment Rate at the previous level of 3.8% AUD/USD The Australian dollar fell against the US currency on Monday, starting a new week with correctional dynamics after strong growth last Friday. The decrease was largely technical in nature, since few new drivers appeared on the market. At the same time, the pressure on the pair was exerted by the deteriorating prospects for concluding an agreement between the UK and the EU within the framework of Brexit and not the most optimistic macroeconomic statistics from China. Chinese exports went down by 3.2% YoY in September after the decline by 1.0% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline by 3.0% YoY. Imports for the same period collapsed by 8.5% YoY after a decline of 5.6% YoY in August. The indicator also came out worse than its forecasts (–5.2% YoY). USD/JPY The US dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the Japanese yen on Monday, halting the development of an uptrend in the short term, which brought the instrument to local highs of August 1. Japanese exchanges were closed yesterday due to the Health and Sports Day, so market activity remained fairly low. During today's Asian session, the instrument is trading in both directions, reacting to the publication of macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Industrial Production in August showed a decrease of 1.2% MoM and 4.7% YoY, which coincided with the forecasts and the pace of decline in July. At the same time, the Capacity Utilization indicator in August collapsed by 2.9% after an increase of 1.1% a month earlier. Analysts expected the appearance of negative dynamics, but expected a slight decrease of –0.2%. Tertiary Industry Index in August grew by 0.4% MoM after declining by 0.1% MoM in the previous month. The index turned out significantly better than its forecasts of –0.2% MoM. Oil Oil prices fell on Monday, departing from local highs, updated at the end of last week. Despite some progress in negotiations between the United States and China, investors are still skeptical about the conclusion of a full-scale trade agreement between the countries. In addition, the current increased tariffs on Chinese imports remain in force, as well as Huawei remains on the black list. Additional pressure on quotes is also exerted by the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count report published at the end of the last trading week. For the first time in the last 2 months, the report indicated an increase in the number of rigs from 710 to 712 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-10-16 08:43 (GMT+2) EUR/USD The European currency showed ambiguous dynamics of trading against the US dollar on Tuesday, ending the session with a slight increase. During the day, the instrument mainly declined, which was caused by the reaction of the market to the deteriorating prospects of concluding a preliminary trade agreement between the United States and China. Despite significant success in the new round of negotiations, the Chinese side is hesitant to sign the agreement, insisting on the cancellation of the planned increase in import duties in December. Donald Trump is unlikely to do this, because the US sees the December tariff increase as an additional guarantee of compliance with all conditions by Beijing. Macroeconomic statistics from ZEW had a contradictory effect on the euro. German ZEW Economic Sentiments in October showed a decrease from –22.5 to –22.8 points, which, however, turned out to be better than market expectations of –27.0 points. ZEW Economic Sentiment in the euro area fell to –23.5 points from previous –22.4 in October. Investors counted at –33.0 points. GBP/USD The British pound again showed strong growth against the US dollar on Tuesday, updating local highs of May 21. The reason for the next upsurge of "bullish" sentiments was media reports that the UK and the EU were close to concluding an agreement, and its final text could be published on October 16. However, this has not happened yet, and the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland hastened to comment on the situation, noting that some disagreements still persist. The UK labor market report, published on Tuesday, was left without due attention. Average Earnings ex Bonus in August showed a slowdown from +3.9% 3MoY to +3.8% 3MoY, which turned out to be slightly better than market expectations of +3.7% 3MoY. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate for 3 months increased from 3.8% to 3.9% with a forecast of 3.8%. AUD/USD The Australian dollar showed an active decline against the US currency on Tuesday, continuing the development of the "bearish" impulse formed earlier this week. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by the actions of the Chinese delegation in the trade negotiations between the USA and China. Beijing is hesitant to sign the elaborated interim trade agreement, continuing to insist on the complete abolition of the planned December tariff increase. Meanwhile, macroeconomic statistics from China released on Tuesday were able to slightly support the falling market sentiment. Consumer Price Index in September accelerated from the previous +0.7% MoM to +0.9% MoM, which turned out to be better than expectations. In annual terms, the figure reached 3.0% YoY, while analysts had expected growth to only 2.9% YoY. USD/JPY The US dollar rose significantly against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, updating local highs of August 1. The development of the uptrend is facilitated by weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Industrial Production in August showed a decrease of –1.2% MoM and –4.7% YoY, which coincided with the forecasts. Capacity Utilization fell by a record 2.9% after rising 1.1% in the previous month. Analysts expected a slight negative trend at the level of –0.2%. In addition, the markets reacted to the speech of the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who again complained about the growing external pressure on the Japanese economy and emphasized that the regulator is ready for new stimulation measures if necessary. Oil Oil prices showed a moderate decrease on Tuesday, continuing the development of a negative trend, formed at the beginning of the week. Nevertheless, closer to the end of the afternoon session, quotes managed to rise slightly, which was caused by favorable comments by OPEC representatives who confirmed their intentions to stabilize markets after 2020. A more confident growth of the instrument was hindered by the tense situation after a new round of trade negotiations between the United States and China. Despite significant progress compared to previous negotiations, markets fear that the next stage will also come to a standstill, and the US will return to an increase in import duties on Chinese goods. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-10-18 08:44 (GMT+2) EUR/USD EUR rose against USD on Thursday, updating local highs of August 26. EUR was supported by Brexit deal consummation between the EU and Britain. The day before, the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, said that the parties managed to reach a compromise and form an agreement. Later, Prime Minister of Great Britain Boris Johnson announced the same. However, the detailed text of the agreement was not published. Its final version will probably be made public after the signing by all participants of the EU summit, which will end today. The development of "bullish" trend in the instrument was also facilitated by weak macroeconomic statistics from the USA on industrial production. Industrial Production in September fell by 0.4% MoM after rising by 0.8% MoM a month earlier. Analysts expected a decline of 0.1% MoM. Capacity Utilization for the same period fell from 77.9% to 77.5%, which also turned out to be worse than market expectations of 77.7%. GBP/USD The British pound showed strong growth against the US dollar on Thursday, updating local highs of May 13. The new impetus for the growth of GBP was due to the achievement of a joint agreement between the UK and the EU on Brexit. The UK has a new chance to avoid a no-deal Brexit, while the compromise reached seems to be really beneficial to all participants in the process. However, there are still some obstacles. On Thursday, the DUP leaders said they did not support the new customs rules, which are provided by a new version of the agreement. In addition, the party insists on preliminary approval of the agreement by Stormont (the autonomous parliament of Northern Ireland), although there is not enough time for that. The ratification of the agreement in the British Parliament is scheduled for Saturday, October 19. AUD/USD The Australian dollar rose against the US currency on Thursday, updating monthly local highs. The development of the uptrend in the instrument was facilitated by the fact that the UK and the EU managed to reach a compromise and form a new version of the agreement, which should now be signed by all EU member states and approved during the meeting of the British Parliament on October 19. Slight support for AUD on Thursday was also provided by contradictory data on the Australian labor market for September. Despite weak Employment growth, the report managed to support the markets by unexpected reduction in the Unemployment Rate from 5.3% to 5.2%. Today, the pair is trading in both directions, reacting to the weak data from China. In Q3 2019, China's GDP slowed down from +1.6% QoQ and +6.2% YoY to +1.5% QoQ and +6.0% YoY. USD/JPY The US dollar showed a slight decline against the Japanese yen on Thursday, retreating from local highs of early August, updated on the same day. The depreciation of USD was facilitated by the ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Industrial Production in September decreased by 0.4% MoM after an increase of 0.8% MoM in August. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in October fell from 12.0 to 5.6 points, which was worse than market expectations of 8.0 points. Housing Starts fell by 9.4% MoM in September after rising by 15.1% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected decline by 8.6% MoM. Today, the pair maintains negative dynamics; however, weak data from Japan hinder the more confident growth of the yen. Japan's National Consumer Price Index in September showed a slowdown from +0.3% to +0.2% YoY, while the forecast assumed an increase to +0.4% YoY. Oil Oil prices rose moderately on Thursday, responding to joint statements by the UK and the EU about reaching an agreement on Brexit. In turn, pressure on quotes was exerted by the previously published API report, as well as recent data on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy. For the reporting week as of October 11, Crude Oil Inventories in the US grew by 9.281 million barrels after an increase of 2.927 million barrels over the past period. In turn, Gasoline Inventories decreased by 2.6 million barrels, which exceeded forecasts of –1.2 million barrels. The volume of oil production in the United States did not change and amounted to the previous 12.600 million barrels per day. Today, investors are waiting for Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count report. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-10-21 08:46 (GMT+2) EUR/USD The European currency showed steady growth against the US dollar last week, updating local highs of August 14. The growth of the euro during the week was promoted by weak macroeconomic statistics from the USA, as well as optimistic news from the UK, where the issue with Brexit was moving ahead at an unprecedented pace. Boris Johnson managed to agree on all the details of the new version of the agreement with the EU, after which the British Parliament was supposed to ratify this agreement on Saturday. Unfortunately, this did not happen, and Parliament ordered Johnson to request a new postponement of the country's exit from the EU until February. GBP/USD The British pound rose significantly against the US dollar last week, noting new local highs of May 13. The British currency was supported by Brexit news during the week. Investors were optimistic about the process of working out a new agreement between the UK and the EU, reacting to the positive comments of officials. Today, the instrument shows corrective dynamics, reacting to the results of the meeting of the British Parliament, held on Saturday, October 19. Instead of approving a new version of the agreement, the British Parliament legally ordered Boris Johnson to request a new deferral of Brexit from the EU. The amendment, which was put forward by former conservative Oliver Letwin, gained the support of 322 members of parliament, while 306 voted against it. However, by October 31, Johnson theoretically still has time to resolve the issues that have arisen, but the chances of this are very small. AUD/USD The Australian dollar showed moderate growth against the US currency at the end of last trading week. The growth of the instrument can be traced today, but the "bullish" activity is gradually weakening. A more confident growth of the instrument is hindered by the publication of not the strongest macroeconomic statistics from China. Last Friday, data on China's GDP for Q3 2019 reflected a slowdown in the Chinese economy from +6.2% YoY to +6.0% YoY, which turned out to be worse than market expectations at +6.1% YoY. On a quarterly basis, the indicator decreased from +1.6% QoQ to +1.5% QoQ. However, there are still some positive news. In September, Retail Sales in China increased from 7.5% YoY to 7.8% YoY, while Industrial Production growth rates for the same period significantly accelerated from +4.4% YoY to +5.8% YoY with a forecast of +5.0% YoY. USD/JPY The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen last Friday, continuing to develop the correctional impulse that formed in the middle of last trading week. The growth of the yen was not prevented by weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. In September, the National Consumer Price Index fell from +0.3% YoY to +0.2% YoY, which turned out to be half the expectations of investors. Corporate Services Price Index slowed down from +0.6% YoY to +0.5% YoY with a forecast of +0.6% YoY. Today the instrument is trading in both directions. Pressure on the yen, in addition to the technical factors of the dollar correction, is put by weak statistics from Japan on exports. In September, export volumes decreased by 5.2% YoY after a decrease of 8.2% YoY last month. Analysts had expected decline by 4.0% YoY only. Oil Oil prices showed a decline by the end of the session on Friday, despite the fact that during the day quotations rose moderately. Ambiguous macroeconomic publications from China, which may signal a further slowdown in the global economy, contributed to the development of the "bearish" trend of the instrument. In addition, investors are still disappointed with the results of a new round of trade negotiations between the United States and China. Last week, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the parties will continue joint negotiations to sign a final agreement next month. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Report published on Friday also contributed to the development of the "bearish" trend of the instrument. For the week as of October 11, the number of active rigs increased from 712 to 713 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Morning Market Review 2019-10-22 08:41 (GMT+2) EUR/USD The European currency showed ambiguous trading against the US dollar on Monday. At the same time, the euro was increasing during the day, which allowed the instrument to update the local highs of August 14. The development of flat trading yesterday was facilitated by the correctional sentiment in USD, which was significantly reduced last week. In addition, Monday's macroeconomic background remained half empty, so investors again focused on Brexit issues and the conclusion of a trade agreement between China and the United States, which did not add support to the instrument. Meanwhile, the German Producer Price Index in September showed an increase of 0.1% MoM after a decline of 0.5% MoM last month. Analysts had expected negative dynamics to remain at –0.1% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator fell by 0.1% YoY after rising by 0.3% YoY in August. Experts expected a decrease of 0.3% YoY. GBP/USD The British pound showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on Monday, maintaining a "bullish" momentum by the end of the afternoon session. Pressure on the pound is still exerted by the uncertain situation around Brexit. After the failure of the urgent vote in the British Parliament last Saturday, the probability of Britain leaving the EU before October 31 significantly decreased, but Boris Johnson continues to insist on his plan. The parliament ordered Johnson to request a new deferment from the EU until January 31, 2020, which was done. Nevertheless, the British Prime Minister expects to resolve internal contradictions in parliament and ratify the agreement. Otherwise, Johnson insists that Britain leave the EU on October 31 without a deal, which could threaten him with problems with the law. AUD/USD The Australian dollar showed moderate growth against the US currency on Monday, updating local highs of September 16. Despite the attempt of correction of the US dollar, the position of the Australian currency remains quite stable. The instrument is supported by the market's anticipation of a preliminary trade agreement between the US and China in mid-November. Last Friday, Donald Trump expressed hope for a deal at a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which will be held in Chile in November. USD/JPY The US dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Monday, recovering from the "bearish" end of last week. The growth of the American currency was promoted by technical factors, as well as the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Export volumes in September showed a decrease of 5.2% YoY after falling by 8.2% YoY in August. Analysts expected a decline of 4.0% YoY. Imports for the same period decreased by only 1.5% YoY after the collapse of 11.9% YoY last month. The indicator turned out better than its forecasts of –2.8% YoY. Trade Balance in September amounted to –123.0 billion Japanese yen, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations of +54.0 billion yen. In August, Trade Balance was –143.5 billion yen. Oil Oil prices showed ambiguous trading dynamics on Monday. Pressure on quotes is provided by the uncertain prospect of a trade agreement between the United States and China. Last Friday, US President Donald Trump expressed hope that an agreement could be signed at his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in mid-November in Chile, but analysts are very skeptical about such statements. An additional uncertainty factor for the oil market remains the situation around Brexit. Everything is pointing to a new postponement, which, given Boris Johnson’s inflexibility, could turn into an aggravation of the domestic political crisis in Great Britain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.