MikhailLF Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: general review Current trend This week, the pair rose to around 110.65 amid expectations of an interest rate increase by the Fed, the decision on which will be made today. It is expected that the regulator will raise the rate from 1.75% to 2.00%. Nevertheless, the main intrigue is how much more increases should be expected this year – one or two. Jerome Powell, the Fed's Head, can answer this question at today's press-conference. In conditions of steady growth of inflation, the basic level of which exceeds the target level of 2.0% for three months in a row, the aggressive increase in rates looks logical. However, a trade conflict with the EU and Canada can make the FOMC officials be more cautious. On Thursday, April data on industrial production in Japan will be published. It is expected that, on an annual basis, the figure will increase from 2.5% to 3.1%, which is unlikely to significantly strengthen the yen, as investors' attention will continue to focus on the results of the meeting of the American regulator. Support and resistance Currently, the price approaches the level of 110.93 (Murray [7/8]) and after its breakout can go to the level of 111.40 (the May high area). A breakdown of the midline of Bollinger Bands around 109.85 will give a prospect of a decline to 109.37 (Murray [6/8]) and 108.75. Technical indicators show growth. Stochastic is directed upwards, and MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone. Support levels: 109.85, 109.37, 108.75. Resistance levels: 110.93, 111.40. Trading tips Long positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 110.93, 111.40 and stop-loss at 110.20. Short positions may be opened below the level of 109.85 with targets at 109.37, 108.75 and stop-loss at 110.10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general review Current trend Yesterday, the pair dropped against the background of the results of the Fed's meeting. The key interest rate was raised from 1.75% to 2.00%, and the majority of the Committee members expect two more increases this year. Today, GBP won back its lost positions, which was facilitated by strong May data on the UK retail sales. YoY the indicator grew from 1.4% to 3.9%. Increased volumes of retail sales were promoted by warm weather and Prince Harry's wedding. These strong data did not clarify the British economy state. After March decline, the indicator has been growing for the second month in a row. But this growth is caused by temporary factors and in June the decline may resume. The Bank of England may need new data to make a decision on the interest rate. Many investors expect its increase in August, especially after the deputy head of the British regulator, Dave Ramsden, spoke last week in favor of rising lending costs. Support and resistance Currently, the price is testing the 1.3427 level (Murrey [+1/8]) and, if it consolidates above it, the price can continue to rise to the levels of 1.3540 and 1.3671 (Murrey [0/8]). The key level for the "bears" seems to be 1.3365 (midline of Bollinger Bands). If it is broken down, the price may drop to 1.3300 and 1.3220 (the bottom line of Bollinger Bands). Technical indicators generally indicate growth. MACD histogram is reducing in the negative zone, and Stochastic is reversing upwards. Support levels: 1.3365, 1.3300, 1.3220. Resistance levels: 1.3427, 1.3540, 1.3671. Trading tips Buy positions may be opened above 1.3427 with targets at 1.3540, 1.3671 and stop-loss at 1.3380. Sell positions may be opened below 1.3365 with targets at 1.3300, 1.3220 and stop-loss at 1.3400. Implementation period: 5-7 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 18, 2018 Share Posted June 18, 2018 LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: the euro is recovering Current trend EUR grew against USD on Friday, having regained some of its losses. Active sales of EUR were due to the market reaction to the ECB meeting outcome. The member of the board of ECB governors and the head of the Bank of Austria Ewald Novotny tried to calm down the investors. He noted that inflation is very close to the target level of 2.0% and the ECB is embarking on a process of monetary policy normalizing. However, their actions will not be sharp and will take a significant amount of time. Published on Friday, the final May inflation data did not change. Consumer Price index remained unchanged at the level of 1.9%. On the one hand, high inflation indicators will push the European regulator to a gradual cancellation of monetary incentives. On the other hand, according to Mario Draghi, the ECB does not take into account the risks associated with the introduction of the US trade duties on metals produced in the EU. If the situation worsens, monetary policy tightening may be postponed. Support and resistance Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range widens but not enough for "bearish" trend to develop. MACD declines keeping a sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic declines locating close to its minimum levels, indicating oversold EUR. Technical indicators don’t contradict "bearish" trend development but corrective growth is possible. Resistance levels: 1.1625, 1.1659, 1.1688, 1.1711. Support levels: 1.1572, 1.1541, 1.1508. Trading tips To open long positions, one can rely on the rebound from the support level of 1.1572, with the breakout of 1.1600. Take-profit — 1.1688, 1.1711. Stop-loss — 1.1550. A breakdown of 1.1572 may be a signal to sell with targets at 1.1508, 1.1500 or 1.1475. Stop-loss — 1.1625. Implementation period: 2-3 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 20, 2018 Share Posted June 20, 2018 LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: the dollar is dropping Current trend USD showed a stable decrease against JPY on Tuesday, updating the local low of June 11. The growth of the Japanese currency is fueled by the growing US-China trade conflict. At the same time, the dollar is relatively stable, as it receives support from the Fed's actions aimed at gradual tightening of monetary policy. Today, the pair is also trading in an upward direction. Traders focus on the published minutes of the April meeting of the Bank of Japan, which in many respects turned out to be neutral. According to the protocol, only one official spoke in favor of additional stimulation measures, while the overwhelming majority of board members advocated the preservation of the monetary policy vector. Support and resistance On the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are gradually reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing, reflecting ambiguous nature of trading in recent days. MACD reversed downwards having formed a sell signal (located under the signal line). Stochastic is going down and is located in the middle of its area. Technical indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bearish" trend in the short and/or ultra-short term. The existing short positions should be left open for some time. Resistance levels: 110.25, 110.60, 111.00, 111.38. Support levels: 109.90, 109.53, 109.17, 108.83. Trading tips To open long positions one can rely on the breakout of the level of 110.25 if signals for the uptrend development in the short and/or ultra-short term emerge. Take-profit — 111.00. Stop-loss — 109.80. The rebound from the level of 110.25 as from resistance, with the subsequent breakdown of 109.90, can become a signal to new sales with target at 109.17, 109.00 or 108.83. Stop-loss — 110.40. Implementation period: 2-3 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 22, 2018 Share Posted June 22, 2018 LiteForex analitics. FTSE: technical analysis FTSE, D1 On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the lower line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains slightly above its moving averages that turned horizontally. The RSI is falling towards the border of the oversold zone. The Composite is approaching its most recent support. FTSE, H4 On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is correcting up from the lower line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is about to test from below its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics. Key levels Support levels: 7540.0 (local lows), 7470.0 (local lows), 7445.0 (March 2017 highs). Resistance levels: 7635.0 (local highs), 7680.0 (local highs), 7770.0 (local highs). Trading tips There is a chance of a short-term upward correction, after which the fall will continue. Short positions can be opened from the level of 7540.0 with targets at 7470.0, 7445.0 and stop-loss at 7585.0. Validity – 3-5 days. Long positions can be opened from the level of 7680.0 with the target at 7770.0 and stop-loss at 7635.0. Validity – 3-5 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 25, 2018 Share Posted June 25, 2018 LiteForex analitics. CAC: technical analysis CAC, D1 On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the lower line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains just below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is approaching the border of the oversold zone. The Composite is about to test from below its longer MA. CAC, H4 On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is correcting down from the middle MA of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is testing from above its longer MA. The Composite is about to test its longer MA as well. Key levels Support levels: 5300.0 (local lows), 5285.0 (local lows), 5265.0 (November 2017 lows). Resistance levels: 5400.0 (local highs), 5435.0 (local highs), 5500.0 (local highs). Trading tips The fall is likely to continue. Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 5300.0, 5285.0, 5265.0 and stop-loss at 5375.0. Validity – 3-5 days. Long positions can be opened from the level of 5435.0 with the target at 5500.0 and stop-loss at 5400.0. Validity – 3-5 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: the dollar is growing Current trend USD moderately rose against JPY on Thursday, continuing to develop an uptrend formed earlier this week. The instrument was strengthened due to technical factors, as well as weakened JPY at the backdrop of pessimistic statistics from Japan. MoM Retail Trade fell to –1.7% in May from 1.4% a month earlier. YoY index fell to 0.6% in May from 1.5% a month earlier. Today, the pair is also declining, despite the publication of optimistic statistics from Japan. Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) grew by 0.7% in June after the growth to 0.5% a month earlier, with the forecast of +0.6%. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to a record 2.2% in May against 2.5% earlier. Industrial production (YoY) grew by 4.2% which turned out to be significantly better than previous value of +2.6% and the forecast of +1.1%. Support and resistance Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range slightly widens from above and limiting the further development of "bullish" trend. MACD indicator is growing keeping a new buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic keeps its upward direction, but is approaching its maximum values, which signals an overbought dollar. Current indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bullish" trend in the short term. Resistance levels: 110.77, 111.00, 111.38. Support levels: 110.47, 110.25, 110.00, 109.76. Trading tips To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 110.77. Take-profit — 111.38 or 111.50. Stop-loss — 110.50. Implementation period: 2 days. A rebound from the level of 110.77, as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 110.50 or 110.47, may become a signal for corrective sales with the target at 110.00. Stop-loss — 110.70 or 110.80. Implementation period: 2-3 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted July 2, 2018 Share Posted July 2, 2018 LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis Current trend At the beginning of the week, the pair is declining, and it is now trading around 1.1630. Today’s EU Markit Manufacturing PMI slightly decreased from 55.0 to 54.9 points. EUR is under pressure of German government crisis. Leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU) Horst Seehofer intends to leave the post of Internal Minister in Merkel’s government, as he does not agree with the Chancellor's migration policy. CSU members insist on tightening the fight against illegal migration, up to the ban on new migrants entering the country. On Monday, negotiations between the leaders of the CSU and CDU (Christian Democratic Union, Angela Merkel) are planned to find a compromise in the migration issue. The failure can lead to the disintegration of the German ruling coalition, which will inevitably weaken EUR. Support and resistance The price is testing the midline of Bollinger bands 1.1670 (D1) and cannot consolidate above it. In case of German government crisis worsening, the instrument can fall to the levels of 1.1540 (May’s lows area) and 1.1474 (Murrey [–2/8]). The breakout of the midline of Bollinger bands and the level of 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]) will let the price grow to the level of 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8], the upper border of Bollinger bands). Technical indicators confirm the possibility of growth. Stochastic turns up, MACD histogram decreases in the negative zone. Resistance levels: 1.1718, 1.1840. Support levels: 1.1540, 1.1474. Trading tips Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.1718 with the target at 1.1840 and stop loss 1.1670. Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.1600 with the targets at 1.1540, 1.1474 and stop loss around 1.1640. Implementation period: 3–5 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted July 3, 2018 Share Posted July 3, 2018 LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: general analysis Current trend On Tuesday, oil prices grew and reached 73.35, but the market is influenced by ambiguous factors. The risks of Libya oil supply interruptions support the instrument. Yesterday, the representatives of the Libyan National Oil Corp announced that the shipment from a number of ports is unavailable, so the reduction of production in the country by 850,000 barrels per day is expected. On the other hand, the price is under pressure of the United Arab Emirates government's statement that the country has the opportunity to significantly increase production to prevent a supply shortage in the market. Previously, Saudi Arabia said the same thing. Thus, the expected by the end of the year, Iran "black gold" export decrease will be balanced by other OPEC members’ production growth. In the evening, investors are waiting for API Crude Oil Stocks change release. If the index falls, it will affect the price negatively. Support and resistance The key "bullish" level is 73.43 (Murrey [7/8]). After the breakout, the price can grow to 75.00 (Murrey [8/8]). Otherwise, a downward correction to 71.87 (the lower line of Bollinger bands, Murrey [6/8]) and 70.31 (Murrey [5/8]) is expected. Technical indicators do not exclude the fall possibility. Bollinger bands are directed upwards. Stochastic entered the overbought zone and can reverse. MACD decreases in the positive zone. Resistance levels: 73.43, 75.00. Support levels: 71.87, 70.31. Trading tips Short positions can be opened at the level 72.80 with the targets at 71.87, 70.31 and stop loss 73.40. Long positions can be opened when the price is set above the level of 73.43 with the target at 75.00 and stop loss around 72.80. Implementation period: 3–5 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted July 4, 2018 Share Posted July 4, 2018 LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: general review Current trend This week, the pair is corrected downwards due to weak economic statistics from Japan. Tankan Large Manufacturing Index in Q2 2018 dropped from 24 to 21 points and Manufacturing PMI in June dropped from 53.1 to 53.0 points. Also, JPY is under pressure of the decision of the People's Bank of China not to use the yuan as a weapon in the trade war with the US. This was announced by the head of the Chinese regulator Yi Gang. In general, the potential to strengthen JPY as a safe haven asset remains, especially if the US-China trade conflict continues to worsen. In addition, on Wednesday, the Japanese Bank of Japan board member Yutaka Harada addressed the leaders of Japanese business. The official noted that the current level of unemployment in the country (2.2%) is too high and to achieve inflation level of 2.0% it is necessary to further reduce it. Therefore, the Bank of Japan intends to continue soft monetary policy. Support and resistance The price has fallen to the midline of Bollinger Bands to 110.15. The breakdown of this level will give the prospect of further decline to 109.37 (Murrey [4/8], the bottom line of Bollinger Bands) and 108.59 (Murrey [5/8]). This possibility is indicated by Stochastic which has left the overbought area. The key to the "bulls" is 110.93 (Murrey [6/8]), which was tested unsuccessfully in May. Consolidation of the price above it will cause an increase to 111.72 (Murrey [7/8]) and 112.50 (Murrey [8/8]). Support levels: 110.15, 109.37, 108.59. Resistance levels: 110.93, 111.72, 112.50. Trading tips Buy positions can be opened above 110.93 with targets at 111.72, 112.50 and stop-loss at 110.50. Sell positions may be opened below 110.15 with targets at 109.37, 108.59 and stop-loss at 110.40. Implementation period: 3-5 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general review Current trend GBP continues strengthening due to positive economic statistics and is testing the level of 1.3244 (Murrey [5/8]). Wednesday's data on the Services PMI in the UK proved to be strong and strengthened GBP. In June, the indicator reached the 8-month maximum at 55.1 points. According to experts, this could lead to GDP growth by 0.4% in the UK in Q2 2018 and push the Bank of England to increase the interest rate at an August meeting. However, for such a decision, inflation in the country should be above the target level of 2.0%. Currently, this indicator continues to decline and has already reached the level of 2.4%. The situation with Brexit remains controversial. Theresa May's Cabinet developed a new plan for customs cooperation with the EU. According to it, after leaving the EU, Britain will be able to set its own tariffs on imported goods while transit products going to the EU through the UK territory will have to be taxed by the EU duties. Support and resistance The price is testing the level of 1.3244 (Murrey [5/8]), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of growth to 1.3305 (Murrey [6/8]), 1.3366 (Murrey [7/8]). The key level for the "bears" seems to be 1.3183 (Murrey [2/8]), midline of Bollinger Bands). If it is broken down, the price may decline to 1.3122 (Murrey [3/8]) and 1.3061 (Murrey [2/8]). Technical indicators don’t provide a clear signal. Stochastic has reversed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone. Support levels: 1.3366, 1.3305. Resistance levels: 1.3061, 1.3122, 1.3183. Trading tips Buy positions may be opened from 1.3260 with targets at 1.3305, 1.3366 and stop-loss at 1.3220. Sell positions may be opened from 1.3183 with targets at 1.3122, 1.3061 and stop-loss at 1.3220. Implementation time: 3-5 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review Current trend Today, US trade duties on goods produced in China came into effect, totaling USD 34 billion. According to experts, the impact of tariffs on the Chinese economy will be noticeable in 3-6 months and may lead to a 0.2% decrease in its growth. Now investors are waiting for the official reaction of the Chinese authorities, in particular, the press conference of the Premier of the State Council of the PRC, Li Keqiang. Beijing's response may be symmetric, but the US administration warned that if the conflict escalated, it could introduce additional duties on Chinese goods totaling USD 500 billion. In the evening, investors expect the publication of data on Nonfarm payrolls in the US. The indicator can decline from 223K to 195K. Thursday's statistics on ADP Employment Change also proved to be weak: in June the indicator dropped from 189K to 177K. Support and resistance The price is testing 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]) and in case of consolidation above it the price can reach the levels of 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8]) and 1.1962 (Murrey [2/8]). A breakdown of the midline of Bollinger Bands at 1.1650 will give the prospect of a decline to the level of 1.1530 (the bottom line of Bollinger Bands). Indicators show growth. Stochastic is directed upwards, and MACD histogram is about to move to the positive zone. Support levels: 1.1650, 1.1530. Resistance levels: 1.1718, 1.1840, 1.1962. Trading tips Buy positions may be opened above the level of 1.1718 with target at 1.1840 and stop-loss at 1.1670. Sell positions may be opened above the level of 1.1650 with target at 1.1530 and stop-loss at 1.1690. Implementation period: 3-5 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: general review Current trend Today, the pair is trading near the midline of Bollinger Bands (D1) at 110.50. Today, at the meeting of the heads of the Bank of Japan regional branches, Haruhiko Kuroda spoke. In general, the head of the Japanese regulator confirmed his opinion that a soft monetary policy should be continued until inflation stabilizes at 2.0%. This week, investors will focus on the development of the US-China trade conflict and the publication of June inflation data in the US. The trade war leads to instability in the world economy and can force the Fed to lower the hike of interest rate increase. The index of inflation promises to remain above the target level of 2.0% for the fourth consecutive month, which indicates the restoration of the American economy and the need to normalize monetary policy. Support and resistance Now the price is at the middle line of the Bollinger bands at 110.50. The key for the "bears" is 110.15 (Murrey [5/8]). If it is broken down, a further decrease to 109.37 (Murrey [4/8]) and 108.59 (Murrey [3/8]) is likely. Long positions will become relevant if the price consolidates above the level of 110.93 (Murrey [6/8]), which was tested unsuccessfully this year. In this case, the target of the "bulls" will be 111.72 (Murrey [7/8]) and 112.50 (Murrey [8/8]). Technical indicators don't provide a clear signal. MACD histogram is stable in the positive zone. Stochastic is directed downwards. Support levels: 110.15, 109.37, 108.59. Resistance levels: 110.93, 111.72, 112.50. Trading tips Buy positions can be opened above 110.93 with target at 111.72, 112.50 and stop-loss at 110.50. Sell positions may be opened from 110.15 with targets at 109.37, 108.59 and stop-loss at 110.60. Implementation period: 3-5 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis Current trend Yesterday the pair moved in different directions: poor June US employment market data affected it negatively, but as the tough rhetoric did not develop after the US-China trade taxes implementation, USD did not fall further. On Monday, ECB officials commented on the current economic situation. The head of the regulator, Mario Draghi in the European Parliament noted the growing role of protectionism in the world trade and expressed hope for EU consumer prices growth. In Zurich, ECB board member Ewald Nowotny expressed his fear that the US-China trade war could turn into a currency one. Earlier, the head of the People's Bank of China Yi Gang claimed the intention not to use the Yuan as a weapon in trade disputes, but the market was not satisfied. Today, the traders focus on EU and German ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment release, which is expected to decline: from –16.1 to –18.0 points in Germany and from 12.6 to –13.2 points in EU. The growth of pessimism is due to EU, China and the USA trade conflict. Support and resistance The price grew above 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]) and can move to 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8]), tested in May. A breakdown of the middle line of Bollinger bands around 1.1650 will let the price return to 1.1540. Indicators’ readings are ambiguous. Stochastic reverses in the overbought zone. MACD histogram is ready to enter the positive zone and form a buy signal. Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1962. Support levels: 1.1718, 1.1650, 1.1540. Trading tips Long positions can be opened from 1.1780 with the target at 1.1840 and stop loss at the level of 1.1740. Short positions can be opened below 1.1650 with the target at 1.1540 and the stop loss around 1.1690. Implementation period: 3–5 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted July 11, 2018 Share Posted July 11, 2018 LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general review Current trend At the beginning of the week, the pair sharply corrected to the area of 1.3183 (Murrey [4/8]), as a result of permutations in the British government. Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson left office. They protested against the new plan by Theresa May, according to which a free trade area with uniform rules for industrial and agricultural goods, subject to European trade rules, should be established between the EU and Great Britain. Currently, the pair has ambiguous dynamics. GBP is under pressure by weak statistics on the volume of industrial production. The value of the indicator YoY grew by 0.8% with the forecast of 1.9%, and MoM it dropped by 0.4%. USD is under pressure after the US administration announced plans to introduce a new 10% duty on Chinese goods totaling USD 200B, which may enter into force on August 30. The Chinese authorities called this step of the US totally unacceptable and threatened with retaliatory measures and proceedings within the WTO. Support and resistance The price is testing the level of 1.3244 (Murrey [5/8]), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of price growth to 1.3183 (Murrey [4/8]), 1.3122 (Murrey [3/8]). The key for the "bulls" is the level of 1.3305 (Murrey [6/8]). If it is broken out, the growth to 1.3366 (Murrey [7/8]) and 1.3427 (Murrey [8/8]) is possible. Technical indicators show the decline development. Stochastic has reversed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone. Support levels: 1.3244, 1.3183, 1.3122. Resistance levels: 1.3305, 1.3366. Trading tips Sell positions may be opened below 1.3244 with targets at 1.3183, 1.3122 and stop-loss at 1.3280. Buy positions can be opened above the level of 1.3305 with target at 1.3366, 1.3427 and stop-loss at 1.3260. Implementation period: 3-5 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: general analysis Current trend This week the pair was growing, and by now it has reached the level of 112.40. The investors are focused on the US-China trade war. The government of Japan, represented by Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, has already expressed concern about its escalation. China and the United States are the largest trading partners of the country, and last year the export of Japanese goods in these directions amounted to $300 billion. The decline in the economic growth of the US and China could affect Japanese exporters negatively. According to experts, the consequences of the trade war are likely to come in the next year, and the country's economy may lose 0.6%. On Thursday, investors are waiting for the publication of June inflation data in the US. It is expected that the Consumer Price Index (YoY) may reach 2.9%, and Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) will reach 2.3%. Thus, the basic indicator of inflation may remain above the target level (2.0%) for the fourth consecutive month. However, despite good economic results, FOMC members can reduce the number of rate increases this year, primarily due to the deepening trade US-China crisis. Support and resistance The price is now reaching the level of 112.50 (the upper border of the Murrey range [8/8]), where a reversal and correction to the levels 111.72 (Murrey [7/8]) and 110.93 (Murrey [6/8]) are possible. The price breaking the upper line of Bollinger bands and Stochastic entering the overbought zone confirm the forecast. The further growth is possible only if the price consolidates above the level of 112.50, in this case, the “bullish” targets will be 114.06 (Murrey [+2/8]). Resistance levels: 112.50, 114.06. Support levels: 111.72, 110.93, 110.15. Trading tips Short positions can be opened at the level of 112.50 with the targets at 111.72, 110.93 and stop loss at the level of 112.80. Long positions can be opened from the level of 113.00 with the target at 114.06 and stop loss around 112.70. Implementation period: 3–5 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general analysis Current trend After Monday’s drop, oil prices stabilized. Brent is trading around 72.00–71.50. The decline can resume soon, as the external background remains negative. Investors are concerned about the US-China trade conflict escalation, which can lead to a decrease in the growth of the two leading world economies and undermine the demand for energy. At the same time, the supply deficit due to US anti-Iran sanctions, which could support prices, is balanced by increased production in a number of OPEC countries and their allies. In the first half of July, Russia increased it to 11.22 million barrels per day. By the end of this month, Iraq volumes can grow to 4.7 million barrels per day against the current 4.5 million barrels per day. Tuesday’s API Weekly Crude Oil Stock release increased unexpectedly: oil by 0.629 million barrels, and gasoline by 0.425 million barrels. In the evening, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stock will be published, which is expected to reach 3.495 million barrels, but it is unlikely to support the prices significantly. Support and resistance The price fell below the level of 71.87 (Murrey [2/8]) and will continue to decline to the levels of 70.31 (Murrey [1/8]) and 68.75 (Murrey [0/8]), which is confirmed by the indicators. Bollinger bands diverge, MACD entered the negative zone. Stochastic entered the oversold zone: correction to 73.43 (Murrey [3/8]) is possible only after the price is set above 71.87. Resistance levels: 71.87, 73.43, 75.00. Support levels: 70.31, 68.75. Trading tips Short positions can be opened from the current level with the targets at 70.31, 68.75 and stop loss 71.90. Long positions can be opened from the level of 72.30 with the target at 73.43 and stop loss around 71.90. Implementation period: 3–5 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis Current trend Today, the EUR/USD pair falls again, and the instrument is now trading around 1.1620. USD was supported by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke on Wednesday before the Financial Services Committee of the US House of Representatives. According to him, Fed’s balance reaches 4.5 trillion dollars, however, the program of bonds redemption confirmed its effectiveness, and there are no reasons to cut back the purchase so far. The normalizing of the balance can take up to four years. As for the key problems of the American economy, Powell noted the growth rates of the national debt, exceeding GDP growth, which had to be stopped. In general, investors remain confident that the US regulator will raise interest rates this year two more times. June US construction market data prevents USD strengthening. Building Permits decreased by 2.2%, and Housing Starts – by 12.3%. Support and resistance Now the price consolidated below the middle line of Bollinger bands and may continue to fall to the levels of 1.1530 (June lows) and 1.1475 (Murrey [–2/8]). The key "bullish" level is 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]). Its breakout may lead to an increase to the levels of 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8]) and 1.1962 (Murrey [2/8]). Technical indicators do not give a clear signal. Bollinger bands are moving horizontally. MACD histogram is near the zero line, its volumes are insignificant. Approach Stochastic to the oversold zone suggests the possibility of a price reverse upwards. Support levels: 1.1530, 1.1475. Resistance levels: 1.1718, 1.1840, 1.1962. Trading tips Short positions can be opened at the level 1.1580 with the targets at 1.1530, 1.1475 and stop loss around 1.1620. Long positions can be opened above the level 1.1718 with the target at 1.1840 and stop loss 1.1680. Implementation period: 3–5 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 LiteForex analitics. FTSE: Fibonacci analysis On the H4 chart, the price is testing the level of 7695.0 (50.0%), which could not be overcome within a month. If the price is able to consolidate above it, the growth to the level of 7742.5 (61.8%) is possible. Indicators confirm the strength of buyers, indicating the possibility of further growth. Stochastic and Bollinger Bands are reversing upwards. MACD histogram is in the positive zone. On the D1 chart, the price reversed in the area of 7477.0 (38.2%), broke out the level of 7625.0 (23.6%) and now is directed to the May highs to the level of 7860.0 (0.0%). The price is moving along the line of the ascending correctional Fibo fan (38.2%). The continuation of the growth of quotations is confirmed by Stochastic, which reversed upwards. The key level for the "bears" seems to be 7625.0 (23.6%, center line of Bollinger Bands). Its breakdown could lead the price to the level of 7550.0 (probable intersection with the line of the ascending correctional Fibo fan 50.0%) and 7477.0 (38.2%). However, the decline scenario is still less likely. Trading tips Buy positions may be opened if the price consolidates above 7695.0 with targets at 7742.5, 7800.0. Stop loss should be placed at 7670.0. Sell positions may be opened below 7625.0 with targets at 7550.0, 7477.0 and stop loss at 7660.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: silver prices are growing Current trend Prices for silver increased significantly on Wednesday, noting a new local high since July 17. USD fell against a background of falling yields on Treasury bonds and weak macroeconomic statistics on the new home sales dynamics in the US. Yesterday's preliminary meeting between US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker did not bring anything new to the market. Following the meeting, Trump said that he hoped for a positive outcome of the negotiations on the trade deal, and praised Juncker for a rather tough position. It should be noted that the consequences of trade wars begin to affect their participants. On Tuesday, the PRC government announced a program to stimulate domestic demand and its own economy to prevent its recession due to new US import duties. At the same time, it became known that Washington would allocate USD 12B to help farmers affected by Chinese retaliatory duties. Support and resistance Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the "bullish" nature of trading in recent days. MACD indicator is growing keeping a buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic keeps on growing, but is rapidly approaching its highs, which indicates the risks associated with the overbought instrument. Current indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bullish" trend in the short term. Resistance levels: 15.60, 15.83, 16.00, 16.12. Support levels: 15.46, 15.30, 15.09. Trading tips To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 15.60. Take profit — 15.83, 15.90 or 16.00. Stop loss — 15.46. A rebound from 15.60 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 15.46 may become a signal for new sales with the target at 15.09. Stop loss — 15.60 or 15.65. Implementation period: 2-3 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: general analysis Current trend On Friday, USD moved in different directions against CAD due to Q2 US GDP preliminary data release, which grew from 2.2% to 4.1%. Gross Domestic Product Price Index also exceeded forecasts, increasing from 2.0% to 3.2%. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures were worse than expected, rising by 2.0%. Today, traders should pay attention to US June Pending Home Sales release at 16.00 (GMT+2), the market expects moderate volatility. Support and resistance On the 4-hour chart, the instrument was corrected to the midline of Bollinger bands, the price range narrowed. MACD histogram is in the negative area, keeping the signal to the opening of short positions. Resistance levels: 1.3080, 1.3100, 1.3130, 1.3160, 1.3200. Support levels: 1.3050, 1.3025, 1.3000. Trading tips Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3025 with the target at 1.2970. Stop loss is 1.3060. Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.3100 with the target at 1.3160 and stop loss 1.3060. Implementation period: 1–3 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted July 31, 2018 Share Posted July 31, 2018 LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: technical analysis XAU/USD, D1 On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is testing from below its longer MA, having formed a Bullish divergence with the price. The Composite is about to test from above its longer MA. XAU/USD, H4 On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is falling, having bounced off its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics. Key levels Support levels: 1215.0 (local lows), 1205.0 (July 2017 lows), 1185.0 (December 2013 lows). Resistance levels: 1237.0 (local highs), 1256.0 (local highs), 1260.0 (October 2017 lows). Trading tips The chances of an upward correction are increasing. Long positions can be opened from the level of 1237.0 with targets at 1256.0, 1260.0 and stop-loss at 1228.0. Validity – 3-5 days. Short positions can be opened from the level of 1205.0 with the target at 1185.0 and stop-loss at 1215.0. Validity – 3-5 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: to new local lows Current trend GBP against USD is moving within a broad downwards channel, despite the July decline in volatility. The downward momentum significantly decreased due to a drop in investment interest in the overbought dollar. An additional catalyst for the pair's growth was weak data on key sectors of the US economy in the middle of last month. At the end of last trading week, the pair reached the upper border of the current downward trend at 1.3210 due to the British positive fundamental background, and dollar is now strengthening due to favorable data and the growth of demand before US key releases publications. At the end of this week US data on the labor market will be published, as well as Fed’s and BoE interest rates decisions, so high volatility of the instrument is expected. Support and resistance The pair remains in a downward trend. Technical indicators confirm the fall forecast. On the daily chart and higher, MACD keeps high volumes of short positions, and Bollinger bands are directed downward. Resistance levels: 1.3150, 1.3180, 1.3210, 1.3230, 1.3270, 1.3295. Support levels: 1.3110, 1.3000, 1.2970, 1.2955, 1.2930, 1.2850, 1.2800. Trading tips It is relevant to increase the volumes of short positions from the current level with the targets at 1.2975, 1.2800 and stop loss 1.3250. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted August 2, 2018 Share Posted August 2, 2018 LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: general review Current trend This week, CAD strengthened against USD due to the publication of strong data on GDP. In May, Canada's GDP grew by 0.5%, which was the most significant figure for the last year. GDP growth is explained by good weather, which led to an increase in retail sales (by 2.0% in May) and an increase in oil prices in the first half of 2018. At present, the Canadian economy is seriously dependent on the oil market, since the share of oil and gas production in the national GDP is more than 7% (the most significant figure since 1998). On Wednesday, after the publication of the EIA report, which recorded the growth of oil reserves in the US by 3.803M barrels to 408.74M barrels, CAD was under pressure, the pair began to grow and is currently trading at around 1.3025. Support and resistance Currently, the price is corrected upwards within the downtrend, and the possibility of further growth is confirmed by Stochastic, which is located at the oversold zone. However, one may speak about a serious increase in the price when it is fixed above 1.3061 (Murrey [3/8]). In this case, the next target of "bulls" will be 1.3183 (Murrey [4/8]). If the downtrend continues, the targets of the "bears" will be 1.2939 (Murrey [2/8]), 1.2817 (Murrey [1/8]) and 1.2695 (Murrey [0/8]). Resistance levels: 1.3061, 1.3183. Support levels: 1.2939, 1.2817, 1.2695. Trading tips Sell positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 1.2939, 1.2817, 1.2695 and stop loss at 1.1360. Buy positions can be opened above 1.3061 with target at 1.3183 and stop loss at 1.3020. Implementation period: 3-5 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted August 6, 2018 Share Posted August 6, 2018 LiteForex analitics. NZD/USD: growth of investment interest in USD Current trend NZD against USD cannot come out of the wide side channel. For more than a month the pair has been moving within the range of 0.6850-0.6715 due to a decrease in trading activity and an ambiguous fundamental background. Last week, strong US GDP data was published, but the labor market subsided, and the Fed did not go on to tighten monetary policy and raise rates. Despite this, USD gained additional demand, and the pair fell to a local minimum of 0.6725, having passed more than 100 points in a few days. At the end of the week, some of the losses were played out but the downward momentum persisted. At the moment, there are no important releases. At the end of the week RBNZ will publish a decision on the rates, and in the US there will be data on the labor market and major indices, special attention should be paid to inflation. Support and resistance The pair has slowed but remains in the long-term downward trend. It is possible that the approach to the lower border will be decisive: either the pair will break it down and go to new local lows, or continue to trade in narrowing consolidation. The consensus forecast indicates an increase in inflation in the US: this may give USD support in view of the increased likelihood of an increase in rates. However, the downward movement is more likely, which means that an increase in the volume of short positions at the current level or at the upper border of the side channel is expected. Technical indicators confirm the fall outlook: on D1 chart and above, MACD is already indicating the growth of volume of short positions, and Bollinger Bands are still pointing down. Support levels: 0.6725, 0.6710, 0.6690, 0.6650, 0.6610, 0.6575, 0.6500. Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6790, 0.6830, 0.6850, 0.6880, 0.6895. Trading tips Short positions may be opened from the current level; pending orders can be opened from the nearest resistance levels of 0.6770, 0.6790 with targets at 0.6650, 0.6575 and the stop loss at 0.6920. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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