LiteForex Analytics

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex EUR/USD: general review

 

Current trend

 

On Friday after the release of negative data on retail sales (-0.2%) and industrial output volume (-0.9%) in the USA the price of the pair rose to 1.1985 but then was corrected and is currently trading near the middle line of Bollinger Bands at 1.1940. Currently investors are cautious waiting for the results of the Fed's meeting on Wednesday. Therefore the pair may remain within the range of 1.1920-1.1980 in the near future.

 

In view of the upcoming meeting of the Fed European statistics is considered less important. Here attention should be paid to the release of final August inflation data from Eurozone. The values of CPI and its basic variant are still far from target levels and make up 1.5% and 1.3% respectively. Business sentiment index by ZEW is due tomorrow. The indicator may grow from 10,0 to 12.5 points for Germany and from 29.3 to 32.4 points for Eurozone. In this case the price will continue to grow to the upper border of the range.

 

Support and resistance

 

Technically the pair has tested the middle line of Bollinger Bands around the level of 1.1920 and may soon reach 1.1980. However, serious growth to the levels of 1.2025 and 1.2090 may happen only after the price consolidates above 1.1980. Breaking down the level of 1.1920 (middle line of Bollinger Bands) will open the way for further decrease to the lower line of Bollinger Bands at 1.1855 and further to 1.1800. Technical indicators show growth: MACD histogram is about to move to the positive zone and to form a buy signal, and Stochastic is reversing upwards.

Support levels: 1.1920, 1.1855, 1.1800.

Resistance levels: 1.1980, 1.2025, 1.2090.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions may be opened from the current price with targets at 1.1980, 1.2025 and stop-loss at 1.1920.1.1920. 

Short position may be opened in case the price reverses around the level of 1.1980 or breaks down the level of 1.1920 with target at 1.1855 and stop-losses at 1.2010 and 1.1950.

 

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex Brent Crude Oil: general review

 

Current trend

 

As a result of trading during the previous week the price of Brent oil grew approaching maximums of April 2016. US refineries resume operations after Harvey and Irma storms. Moreover, investors became optimistic after the news about the reduction of drilling activity in the USA. Also Brent continues to receive support from IEA that increased the outlook of global demand for 2017 from 1.5 to 1.6 mln barrels a day.

 

The trading instrument shows mixed dynamics formed in view of expected Fed's decision on the key interest rate. The demand for high-risk assets dropped. Along with this, according to an OPEC report, the oversupply of oil in the world market is reducing, and soon the cartel and other member states will discuss the extension of the global oil pact. 

 

A key event of the week will be the announcement of the Fed's decision on the monetary policy on Wednesday. Today attention should be paid to API report on the level of oil and petrochemicals stocks in the USA. 

 

Support and resistance

 

On D1 chart the pair is growing along the upper Bollinger Band. The indicator is directed upwards while the price range has widened indicating the preservation of the upward trend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, keeping a strong buy signal. Stochastic is about to leave the overbought area.

 

Support levels: 55.00, 54.30, 53.55, 52.80.

Resistance levels: 55.75, 56.10, 56.65, 57.00.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions may be opened at the current price with target at 56.30 and stop-loss at 54.80. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

Short positions may be opened from the level of 54.75 with target at 53.95 and stop-loss at 55.05. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex USD/CHF: the pair is showing mixed dynamics

 

Current trend

 

US dollar showed unstable growth against Swiss franc during trading on Tuesday, September 19, having lost the majority of advantages by the closing of the daily session. The reason was the release of uncertain data in the dynamics of housing construction in the USA in August. In turn, franc positively reacted to the strengthening of the business sentiment index and current economic conditions assessment in Germany.

 

During the morning session on September 20 the pair is showing cautious dynamics connected with the release of final minutes of the Fed's meeting at 20:00 (GMT+2) and the beginning of a follow-up conference at 20:30 (GMT+2). Moreover, a quarterly report by the National Bank of Switzerland is to be released at 15:00 (GMT+2).

 

Support and resistance

 

Bollinger Bands on D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range remains practically unchanged. MACD indicator is growing but is unable to consolidate above zero. 

Stochastic preserves stable downward direction. 

 

Resistance levels: 0.9650, 0.9677, 0.9702, 0.9724.

Support levels: 0.9615, 0.9584, 0.9562, 0.9541.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions may be opened after breaking through the level of 0.9650 with targets at 0.9700, 0.9725 and stop-loss at 0.9610. The period of implementation is 2 days.

Short positions may be opened after breaking through the level of 0.9584 with targets at 0.9520, 0.9500 and stop-loss at 0.9630. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

 

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex EUR/USD: the Fed's balance is reducing, but the interest rate has not changed

 

Current trend

 

On Wednesday the pair was rapidly corrected after the Fed decided to start the process of budget cutting in October. Currently the budget of the regulator makes up about $4.47 trln. The market positively reacted to this decision, and the pair dropped to 1.1860. However the tightening of USD may be temporary first of all due to small volumes of reduction. On the first stage of the program the balance is expected to be reduced by $10 bln a month, and the next year the sum will be increased to $20 bln.

However, the issue of interest rate increase was postponed as expected, and it remained on the previous level of 1.25%. According to the follow-up statement recent inflation increase was of temporary nature and had been caused by recent storms, but generally CPI would be below the target level for a long time. To confirm this, the Fed reduced its basic inflation forecast in the current year from 1.7% to 1.5%. 

 

Support and resistance

 

Technically the pair started upward correction the targets of which may be located at 1.1960 (middle line of Bollinger Bands, Murrey level [4/8]) and 1.2000 (Murrey level [5/8]). Otherwise the price may return to the level of September minimums at 1.1870 (Murrey level [1/8]) and drop below to 1.1840 (Murrey level [0/8]) and 1.1810 (Murrey level [-1/8]).

Support levels: 1.1870, 1.1840, 1.1810.

Resistance levels: 1.1960, 1.2000, 1.2025.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions may be opened from the current price with targets at 1.1960, 1.2000 and stop-loss at 1.1880. 

Short positions may be opened below the level of 1.1870 with targets at 11.1840, 1.1810 and stop-loss at 1.1900.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex WTI Crude Oil: a week in the side corridor

 

Current trend

 

Oil quotes have been in the upward trend for about a month, but this week the price has entered the side corridor of 49.80-50.80. The restoration of the US oil industry after the storms and the growth of reserves (according to API ad EIA reports) put pressure on the prices. On the other hand, the quotes are supported by suggestions of some OPEC members regarding additional 1% cut of production in the framework of OPEC+ agreement, as well as the data on the fulfillment of the agreement in August by 116% against 94% in July.

 

Today the market is waiting for statements from the meeting of OPEC+ monitoring group. The main agenda item is expected to be the reduction of oil production in Libya and Nigeria. In the evening investors will be waiting for statistics on the number of oil rigs from Baker Hughes. For the last two weeks the indicator has been reducing (from 759 to 749) due to the Atlantic storms that hit Texas and Florida. The continuation of the trend may give considerable support to oil quotes.

 

Support and resistance

 

Technically the price has been trading within the corridor of 50.80 (Murrey level [+1/8]) – 49.80 (Fibo correction 61.8%, Murrey level [+1/8]) since the end of the previous week. Its consolidation above 50.80 will open the way for further growth to 56.60 (Fibo correction 74.6%, Murrey level [+2/8]). One may speak about decrease if the lower border of the range at 49.80 is broken down. In this case the price may be corrected to 49.20 (Murrey level [7/8]) and 48.45 (Murrey level [6/8]). Indicator show decrease: MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone, and Stochastic is directed downwards. However, fundamental factors (OPEC group meeting and the data by Baker Hughes) may give oil prices support therefore upward movement seems more likely.

Support levels: 49.80, 49.20, 48.45, 47.65.

Resistance levels: 50.80, 51.60, 52.00.

 

Trading tips

 

In the current situation long positions should be opened above 50.80 with target at 51.60 and stop-loss at 50.40. 

Short positions should be opened below 49.80 with targets at 49.20, 48.45 and stop-loss at 50.20.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex XAG/USD: Murrey analysis

 

On the H4 chart the price is trying to return to the horizontal channel 16.99 [3/8] – 17.38 [5/8]. If it succeeds, it may grow to 17.18 [4/8] (resistance, support) and 17.38 [5/8] (upper border of the channel). However, buy positions will become more relevant only after the level of 16.99 is broken out and the price consolidates above the middle line of Bollinger Bands. Long-term consolidation of the price around 16.99 also cannot be excluded. The key level for the "bears" seems to be 16.79 [2/8] (rotation, reversal). The consolidation of the price below this level will open the way for further reduction to 16.40 [0/8] (main support). However, this scenario seems less likely, as Stochastic is reversing upwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the negative zone.

 

Support and resistance

 

Support levels: 16.79 [2/8] (rotation, reversal), 16.60 [1/8] (stop, reversal), 16.40 [0/8] (main support).

Resistance levels: 16.99 [3/8] (bottom of the channel), 17.18 [4/8] (resistance, support), 17.38 [5/8] (top of the channel).

 

Trading tips

 

In the current situation buy positions may be opened above the level of 16.99 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands with targets at 17.18, 17.38 and stop-loss at 16.90. 

Short positions should be opened if the price consolidates below 16.79 with targets at 16.60, 16.40 and stop-loss at 16.90.

 

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex EUR/USD: the market is not satisfied with German election

 

Current trend

 

The pair started the week with a fall and by now has dropped to 1.1810. Euro is under pressure due to uncertain results of election to German Bundestag. The CDU/CSU block won and Angela Merkel kept the position of the Chancellor.

 

On the other hand, US currency is supported by statements by the Fed's members William Dudley and Charles Evans. Dudley, the head of FRB New York, pointed out that the factors that slow down inflation were temporary, and in the medium term it should reach 2.0%, therefore the Fed had to increase the rates. His colleague, President of FRB Chicago Evans, stated that due to low inflation the tightening of the fiscal policy had to be gradual, and the beginning of balance cuts was the most appropriate solution. 

 

During the day the price may continue falling in case of release of positive data on new house sales in the USA (the indicator is expected to increase from 571K to 588K). Moreover, attention should be paid to Janet Yellen's speech "Inflation, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy" and Lael Brainard's statement on labor market disparities.

 

Support and resistance

 

Technically the price dropped below the important level of 1.1840 (Murrey level [0/8]) that it tested in the beginning of September several times but in vain. Downward movement may continue to 1.1780 (Murey level [-2/8]) and 1.1720 (Murrey level [4/8] for D1). Otherwise after the breakout of the level of 1.1840 the price may continue to grow to 1.1930 (middle line of Bollinger Bands, Murrey level [3/8]). 

Support levels: 1.1810, 1.1780, 1.1740.

Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1930.

 

Trading tips

 

Short positions may be opened below 1.1810 with target at 1.1740 and stop-loss at 1.1840. 

 

If the price consolidates above 1.1840, long positions could be opened with targets at 1.1900, 1.1930 and stop-loss at 1.1810.

 

 

[MikhailLF]

Brent Crude Oil: oil prices are growing

 

Current trend

 

The price of Brent oil has been rapidly growing for two months. The upward tendency is explained by considerable recent reduction of the rate of the US currency. The quotes are also reacting to a certain reduction of supply in the oil market. This effect may be connected to OPEC+ transaction that might be joined by Nigeria in the near future. 

 

One may notice higher growth rate of oil prices and easy breakthroughs of key resistance levels. Minor correction during the current trading week is explained by the growth of USD rate. Special attention should be paid to the data on oil stock changes according to the US Department of Energy. Also the price may react to key data on the USA including durable goods, labor market, and GDP.

 

Support and resistance

 

Technical indicators confirm the possibility of further growth. MACD indicates the growth in the volume of long positions, and the upper line of Bollinger Bands shows the next strong resistance level at 59.20.

Support levels: 57.10, 56.50, 56.20, 55.75, 54.70, 53.50, 51.00.

Resistance levels: 58.25, 58.75, 59.00, 59.20, 60.00, 62.50, 65.00.

 

Trading tips

 

In this situation long positions may be opened from the current level with target at 59.20 and stop-loss at 56.20.

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex USD/JPY: the pair is strengthening

 

Current trend

 

US dollar showed stable growth during trading against Japanese yen on Wednesday, September 27, marking a new local maximum since July 14. By the end of the trading session yen managed to regain a number of its positions. However, during the morning session on September 28 it is giving in to USD again.

 

As before, USD is supported by the statement by the Fed's head Janet Yellen. She gave the investors hope for one more increase of the interest rate in 2017. Along with that, the traders failed to receive any detailed data on the future tax reform in the USA yesterday.

 

On Thursday, September 8, investors will focus their attention on the US statistics on the dynamics of GDP and personal income and expenses in Q2 2017. Interesting statistics from Japan will be released only during Friday Asian session. Namely, it will be releases on the labor market and consumer inflation in August.

 

Support and resistance

 

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate stable increase. The price range is actively narrowing. MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic shows that the instrument is overbought.

Resistance levels: 113.24, 113.55, 114.00.

Support levels: 112.70, 112.36, 112.00, 111.64.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions may be opened after the breakthrough of the level of 113.24 with target at 114.00 and stop-loss at 112.70. The period of implementation is 2 days.

A reversal near 113.24 with further breakthrough of the level of 112.70 will be a signal for the opening of corrective sales with target at 111.50 and stop-loss at 113.50. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

 

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex GBP/USD: a change in trading tendencies

 

Current trend

 

Like the most of the majors, the pound changed its direction after rapid growth in the beginning of September and is forming a downward trend. 

 

In the end of September the pair made several attempts to break through the level of 1.3615 after which it dropped down. The reason for the fall was recent comments of the Fed's head about further tightening of the monetary policy and optimistic prospects of the US economy growth in the medium term. In view of this the oversold USD received considerable investor support, and the pound on the contrary was subject to sales. During the recent week and a half the pair is trading within a narrow downward channel breaking through key support levels of 1.3450, 1.3400, 1.3380. USD gained additional support from strong labor market data and increased US economic growth. 

Today special attention should be paid to the data on personal expenditure and consumer sentiment index in the USA.

 

Support and resistance

 

In the medium term the pair is likely to preserve the downward tendency. In the short term the pair has targets 1.3270, 1.3200. In fact, the pair remains in the long-term upward trend and has moved to the correction stage that may continue to the lower border of the channel at 1.3125. Technical indicators confirm the fall outlook: MACD indicates the growth in the volume of short positions, and Bollinger Bands in the H4 chart have reversed and are directed downwards.

 

Support levels: 1.3310, 1.3270, 1.3200, 1.3125, 1.3020, 1.3000, 1.2930.

Resistance levels: 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3480, 1.3515, 1.3615, 1.3690.

 

Trading tips

 

In this situation short positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 1.3200, 1.3125. Stop-loss should be placed at the level of 1.3430.

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex XAG/USD: silver prices returned to growth

Current trend

Silver prices updated local minimums since the beginning of August during trading last Friday, October 6, reacting to the release of a mixed report on the US labor market. Despite considerable reduction of the level of unemployment, the report was generally positive, confirming previous outlooks for the growth of the Fed's interest rates. However, the instrument failed to consolidate on new minimums, and by the moment of closing of the daily session the pair moved to the green zone with a considerable “bullish” advantage.
This dynamics was partially explained by the news about North Korea preparing a launch of a new ballistic missile able to reach the western coast of the USA. Moreover, the instrument was supported by technical factors of correction before the weekend.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the D1 chart demonstrate horizontal reversal. The price range is narrowing. MACD indicator is growing preserving a strong buy signal (MACD histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics, quickly approaching maximum values.
Resistance levels: 17.00, 17.20, 17.35, 17.53.
Support levels: 16.87, 16.72, 16.63, 16.50, 16.40.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the outbreak of the level of 17.00 with targets at  17.25, 17.35 and stop-loss at 16.80. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
Breaking down the level of 16.87 may be a signal for corrective sales with targets at  16.63 or 16.50 and stop-loss at 17.05. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

[MikhailLF]

liteForex USD/JPY: the pair is trading within the narrow range

 

Current trend

 

US dollar slightly grew against the Japanese yen as a result of trading on Monday, October 9, although “bearish” tendencies dominated through the day. This uncertain dynamics of trading was explained by holidays both in the USA and Japan.

During the morning session on October 10 the pair is trading in the flat and investors wait for new market drivers. Yen receives moderate support  from the statement of the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda, as well as the release of the balance of external trades. In August the indicator dropped from 566.6 bln to 318.7 bln yen which was better than expected by analysts (264.9 bln yen).

 

Support and resistance

 

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range remains fixed. MACD indicator is reducing preserving a moderate sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic demonstrates similar dynamics quickly dropping to its minimal values. 

Resistance levels: 112.81, 113.24, 113.55, 114.00.

Support levels: 112.19, 111.64, 111.27, 111.00.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions may be opened after breaking through the level of 113.24 with targets at 114.00, 114.30 and stop-loss 112.70. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

Breaking down levels 112.19, 112.00 may be a signal for the return to sales with target at 111.00 and stop-loss at 112.50, 112.60. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

 

 

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

[MikhailLF]

liteForex USD/CHF: dollar is under pressure

 

Current trend

 

During the trading session on Tuesday, October, 10, the US dollar is strongly going down against Swiss franc and stepped away from the local highs, renewed in the end of the last week. The instrument is falling due to the weak positions of the US currency against the decrease of the US bonds’ yield and anticipation of publication of FOMC Minutes on October, 11. In addition, the traders reacted negatively to the news that Trump’s Administration postponed the implementation of the tax reformation, which had been announced recently.

On the other hand, franc is supported by the strong employment market data publications: the unemployment level in Switzerland decreased from 3.2% to 3.1% in September, which was better than the analysts expected.

 

 

Support and resistance

 

On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are moderately growing. The price range is insignificantly narrowing, reflecting the flat trading mood of the recent days. It’s better to use the channel trading strategy.

MACD is going down, keeping a weak sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). It’s better to keep opened short positions in the short term, but not to open new ones before additional signals appear.

Stochastic is going down, being in the center of its working area. The indicator’s readings don’t contradict with the development of the “bearish” dynamics in the short or very short term.

Resistance levels: 0.9767, 0.9800, 0.9834.

Support levels: 0.9732, 0.9707, 0.9677, 0.9650.

 

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.9800. Take profit is 0.9850–0.9880. Stop loss is 0.9760. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

The alternative is the return of the strong “bearish” trend with the breakdown of the level of 0.9732. The targets will be at the levels of 0.9677 or 0.9650. Stop loss is 0.9767. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex GBP/USD: pound is growing

 

Current trend

 

British currency is moderately growing against the US dollar, renewing the weekly highs due to the increasing pressure on USD. The negative dynamics was supported by FOMC Minutes publication, which decreased the market’s belief in the interest rate rise in the end of 2017.

After the report publication the investors focused on Friday’s US September consumer inflation data. In addition, after the key releases publication, the some Fed’s officials will present their renewed forecasts of the regulators’’ monetary policy development.

 

Support and resistance

 

On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are moderately falling. The price range is narrowing actively, reflecting the change of the trend in the short term. The breakout of the resistance levels around the middle line of the instrument can be significant.

MACD has reversed into growing, forming a buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). The indicator is trying to consolidate above the zero line. It’s better to keep current opened long positions and open new ones in the short or very short term.

 

Stochastic is moving upwards, but is reaching its highs, which reflects that the instrument is overbought in the short term, and the flay dynamics can appear in the end of the week.

 

Resistance levels: 1.3290, 1.3327, 1.3400, 1.3454.

Support levels: 1.3218, 1.3148, 1.3110, 1.3042.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.3290 with the targets at 1.3400–1.3450. Stop loss is 1.3218. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

If the instrument meet a significant resistance around the levels of 1.3290–1.3300, in the end of the week the correctional fall can develop with the rebound to the level of 1.3300. Take profit is 1.3100. Stop loss is 1.3350. Implementation period: 2 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex EUR/USD: mixed dynamics in the end of the week

 

Current trend

 

During the trading session on Thursday, October, 12, European currency fell against the US dollar, stepping back from the maximum of September, 25. The downward trend is due to the positive US Initial Jobless Claims data and Producer Price Index, which let the investors hope that Friday’s Consumer Price Index will be strong.

On October, 6, the Initial Jobless Claims indicator fell 258K to 243K, while the analysts expected the value of 251K. The Consumer Price Index grew by 0.4% MoM and 2.2% YoY in September, which exceeds the analysts’ expectations of +0.2% MoM and +2.0% YoY.

 

On Friday, October, at 14:30 (GMT+2) the block of key September statistic of retail sales and consumer inflation will be published in the USA. After FOMC Minutes, published this week earlier, the investors are focused on the price dynamics, as it can affect Fed’s decision upon the interest rate rise.

 

 

Support and resistance

 

On the daily chart Bollinger Bands’ dynamics is flat. The price range is not widening, being quite narrow for the current volatility level. It’s better to use channel trading strategy.

 

MACD is growing, keeping quite strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line) and trying to consolidate above the zero line. It’s possible to keep some of the current long positions in the short term, but not to open new ones.

 

Stochastic has crossed the level of 80 and reversed into flat, reacting to the “bearish” dynamics on Thursday, October, 12. The indicator reflects that the correctional fall is possible in the short term.

Resistance levels: 1.1860, 1.1878, 1.1909, 1.1950.

Support levels: 1.1820, 1.1800, 1.1755, 1.1730.

 

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.1860–1.1878 with the target at 1.1950. Stop loss is 1.1820–1.1830. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

The correctional dynamics development and the breakdown of the levels 1.1820–1.1800 can be the signal to open short positions with the target at 1.1700. Stop loss is 1.1850. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex USD/CAD: the pair is trading in different directions

 

Current trend

 

Last Friday the pair’s dynamics was controversial after the US consumer inflation and retail sales data publications, and now the US dollar is growing insignificantly against Canadian currency.

The Friday’s US data weren’t’ disappointing, but the investors are lesser and lesser believing in another Fed’s interest rate rise this year. However, after the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index publication part of the optimistic moods restored. In October the index grew to the record level of 101.1 points from 95.1 points in September, while analysts expected the growth to 95.0 points. 

During the morning session on October, 16, the pair is in correction, waiting for new signals. In particular, the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey will be released at 16:30 (GMT+2).

 

Support and resistance

 

On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are reversing into flat. The price range has narrowed to the minimum, reflecting the controversial trading dynamics of the recent days. It’s better to wait until new trading signal appear.

MACD is decreasing, keeping a weak sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Taking into the consideration the recent flat dynamics, the signal is not worth believing, but the current short positions in the short term can be kept for some time.

Stochastic is reversing upwards near the level of 20, which is conditional border of the oversold area. The indicator’s readings reflect the possibility of correctional growth development in the short or very short term.

Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2537, 1.2597.

Support levels: 1.2447, 1.2414, 1.2300, 1.2238.

 

Trading tips

 

Open long positions after the breakout of the levels of 1.2500 or 1.2537 with the targets at 1.2600–1.2650. Stop loss is 1.2450–1.2470. Implementation period: 2 days.

The reversal near the current levels and the breakdown of the levels 1.2447 or 1.2414 can be the signal to open short positions with the target at 1.2300. Stop loss is not further than 1.2500. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

 

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex GBP/USD: the pound is under pressure

 

Current trend

 

The British currency showed a fall against US dollar as a result of trading on Monday, October 16, moving away from local maximums updated last Friday. The reason for negative dynamics were new concerns about Brexit negotiations. Its participants failed to reach visible results despite 5 rounds of talks.

Moreover, the pound was under pressure from expectations about the release of the data on consumer inflation from the UK and Eurozone on Tueday. The block of British statistics is due at 10:30 (GMT+2), while European data will become available at 12:00 (GMT+2). Annual consumer prices growth rate in the UK is expected to reach 3.0% in September. MoM current growth rate is likely to considerably slow down from +0.6% to +0.3%.

 

Support and resistance

 

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart are developing downward dynamics gradually reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing. MACD histogram is growing, preserving a weak buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic has reversed downwards near its maximum values.

Resistance levels: 1.3290, 1.3336, 1.3400, 1.3454.

Support levels: 1.3218, 1.3148, 1.3118, 1.3025.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions may be opened after breaking through the levels of  1.3290, 1.3300 with targets at 1.3400, 1.3450 and stop-loss at 1.3240. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

The development of corrective dynamics with a breakdown of the level of  1.3218 may be a signal for further sales with targets at 1.3118, 1.3100 and stop-loss at 1.3270. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex EUR/USD: trend break or the end of correction

 

Current trend

 

Euro continues to decrease against USD in view of growing demand for the latter. The dollar received considerable support in view of positive comments by the Fed's representatives and the head. They all view the prospects of US economy development as promising and expect to keep the targets of further monetary policy tightening.

 

Moreover, the demand for USD continued to grow due to the beneficial fundamental background. During recent two trading weeks strong data on the labor market, retail sales, and main indexes were released. All these factors had a considerable impact on the rate of EUR/USD which has dropped by almost 150 points since October 12. Today the downward impulse got stronger, and the pair tested the local minimum of 1.1730 once again but failed to break through it.

An additional catalyst for the fall of the European currency was the comments by Mario Draghi. He pointed out that to restore the Eurozone economy still needed considerable fiscal stimulation.

 

 

Support and resistance

 

European currency against USD remains in the long-term upward tendency, therefore it is too early to speak about the break of the trend. From the current level the pair may grow to the levels of 1.1785, 1.1800. In case they are broken through, the pair may return to the local maximum of October at 1.1880. An alternative scenario will be breaking through the level of 1.1730 and dropping to 1.1600, 1.1575.

Support levels: 1.1730, 1.1715, 1.1665, 1.1600, 1.1575, 1.1550, 1.1500.

Resistance levels: 1.1775, 1.1785, 1.1800, 1.1830, 1.1860, 1.1880, 1.1900, 1.1925.

 

 

Trading tips

 

In this situation it is reasonable to open long positions with target at 1.1880 and stop-loss at 1.1700. At the same time, one may open short positions below the level of 1.1715 with target at 1.1600. 

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex AUD/USD: the pair is trading in both directions

 

Current trend

 

Australian dollar showed growth during the morning session on October 19, having received support from optimistic macroeconomic releases from Australia. Along with that, after the release of the data from China investors corrected a number of positions, and the instrument lost almost all of its “bullish” advantages.

 

The level of unemployment in Australia in September dropped from 5.6% to 5.5% which was a pleasant surprise as investors did not wait for any changes at all. At the same time the level of employment in September grew by 19.8K after growth by 50.0K last month. Analysts expected employment to increase by 15.0K workplaces.

 

The data from China showed an expected slowdown in the growth of GDP in YoY terms. In Q3 2017 GDP grew by 6.8% after increase by 6.9% in the previous period. QoQ the growth of the Chinese economy remained on the same level of +1.7%.

 

Support and resistance

 

Bollinger Bands in the D1 chart show flat dynamics. The price range is slightly widening from above. MACD indicator is growing preserving a moderate buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic shows almost no reaction to the instrument's growth attempts this week and preserves a quite stable downward direction.

 

Resistance levels: 0.7873, 0.7900, 0.7937, 0.7978.

Support levels: 0.7832, 0.7807, 0.7769, 0.7731.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions may be opened after breaking out the levels of 0.7873 or 0.7900 with targets at 0.7978, 0.8000 and stop-loss at 0.7832, 0.7850. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

 

Breaking down the level of 0.7807 may be a signal for further sales with targets at 0.7731, 0.7700 and stop-loss at 0.7850. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

 

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex XAU/USD: gold is growing

 

Current trend

 

The price of gold grew considerably yesterday breaking three “bearish” sessions in a row and moving away from local minimums since October 9. The reason for the occurrence of “bullish” dynamics was the growth of corrective tendencies in the market that made the investors escape risks. Besides geopolitical risks, investors paid attention to the end of rally in the world stock markets that moved away from record-setting maximums.

 

USD, in turn, remained under the pressure of uncertainty around the Fed, but received support after the Senate approved of the draft budget for 2018 giving Trump administration an ability to pass the tax reform.

 

During the morning session on October 20 the pair is showing active “bearish” dynamics and USD is waiting for the release of the data on sales in the secondary housing market and the speech by the FOMC member Loretta Mester at 20:00 (GMT+2).

 

Support and resistance

 

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show flat dynamics. The price range is actively narrowing from below. MACD indicator is showing uncertain dynamics near the zero mark. Stochastic has reversed horizontally near the level of 20.

 

Resistance levels: 1290.67, 1298.33, 1305.65.

Support levels: 1281.85, 1276.26, 1266.01, 1260.25.

 

Trading tips

 

Long positions may be opened after the breakthrough of the level of 1290.67 with target at 1305.65 and stop-loss at 1284.00. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

 

A breakdown of the level of 1276.26 may be a signal for resuming sales in the short term with target at 1266.01 and stop-loss at 1282.00. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex GBP/USD: the pair is uncertain

 

Current trend

 

Last week the pair dropped to 1.3180 (Murrey level [4/8]) where it currently remains. Generally, the market is uncertain before the meeting of the Bank of England scheduled for the next week. Right now the regulator is in a difficult situation: it needs to solve the problem of high inflation and at the same time deal with low salaries that push down the citizens' purchasing capacity. Investors wait for the Bank of England to increase the interest rate and are not ready to be active yet.

 

Ongoing Brexit negotiations remain a negative background for the British currency. The delay causes more and more concerns among businesses in the UK. According to BBC, major British business structures including the Institute of Directors (IoD) and the  Conference of British Industry (CBI) wrote a letter to Minister David Davis asking him to regulate the issues in question as quickly as possible. Otherwise the country may lose a considerable share of workplaces and investments. The process is already on: for example,  Goldman Sachs started to reduce the staffing of its London representative office and to increase it in Frankfurt.

 

Support and resistance

 

Technically in the D1 chart the price is near the key level of 1.3180 (Murrey [4/8]). It breaks the main trading area into two halves showing market uncertainty. Indicators don't give a clear signal: the volume of MACD histogram is minor, and Stochastic is trying to reverse upwards. The consolidation of the price above the level of 1.3180 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands may lead to further growth to 1.3305 (Murrey [5/8]) and1.3427 (Murrey [6/8]). Otherwise the targets of the decrease will be 1.3060 (Murrey [3/8]) and 1.2940 (Murrey [2/8]).

 

Support levels: 1.3060, 1.2940, 1.2817.

Resistance levels: 1.3180, 1.3300, 1.3427.

 

Trading tips

 

In the current situation short positions may be opened from the level of 1.3135 with targets at 1.3060, 1.2940 and stop-loss at 1.3190. Long positions with targets at 1.3305 and 1.3427 may be opened from the level of 1.3245. Stop-loss should be placed at 1.3200. 

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex USD/JPY: yen in under pressure or poor PMI data

 

Current trend

 

The pair began the week with the upward gap (to the area of 114.00) due to the strong victory of Liberal Democratic Japan party, leading by Shinzō Abe, in the parliamentary elections, which means that the ultra soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan will be developing for a long time. In addition, the market is alerted that Abe plans to increase the national consuming tax from 8% to 10% to increase the social spending. The decision can harm the retail sales, as the growth of tax inevitably affects the consumer spending negatively. When the tax was increased in 2014 in the previous time, the economy entered a recession, so the investors fear the same effect will happen this time.

 

During Monday the price was corrected of 113.30, but now is growing again. Yen is under pressure of poor PMI data. Instead of expected growth in October the indicator decreased from 52.9 to 52.5 points. The pair can grow, if the US Markit Manufacturing PMI and Markit Service PMI, which will be published today, are strong.

 

Support and resistance

 

Technically the price is testing the level of 113.67 (Murray [7/8]) and after the consolidation above it can grow to the levels of 114.06 (Murray [8/8]) and 114.45 (Murray [+1/8]). The indicators reflect the growth development, MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone, Stochastic is reversing upwards near the oversold area. However if US PMI data disappoint the investors, the correction to the level of 112.50 (key Murray [4/8], lower border of Bollinger Bands) can develop.

 

Resistance levels: 113.67, 114.06, 114.45, 114.85.

Support levels: 113.28, 112.90, 112.50.

 

Trading tips

 

It’s better to open long positions above the level of 113.67 with the targets at 114.06, 114.45 and stop loss at 113.35. 

 

The consolidation of the price below the level of 113.28 or reversal around 114.06 will make short positions with the targets at 112.90 and 112.50 relevant. Stop losses are near the levels of 113.60 and 114.40 correspondingly.

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex FDAX: Murrey analysis

 

Current trend

 

In the D1 chart the price consolidated around 12968.8 ([7/8]). Investors are waiting for the results of tomorrow's ECB meeting. 

In case the level of 13125.0 (main resistance [8/8]) which is key for the “bulls” is broken through, the price may rise to 13281.3 ([+1/8]) and 13437.5 ([+2/8]). Otherwise the price may experience serious correction to the levels of 12812.5 ([6/8]) and 12500.0 ([4/8]). In the medium term the growth of the price is possible (which is confirmed by the reversal of Stochastic upwards), but it should be considered with caution. The level of 13125.0 represents serious resistance. Moreover, the price is around year maximums which may lead to correction.

 

Support and resistance

 

Support levels: 12968.8 ([7/8] stop, reversal), 12812.5 ([6/8] rotation, reversal), 12656.3 ([5/8] upper part of the channel), 12500.0 ([4/8] resistance, support).

 

Resistance levels: 13125.0 ([8/8] main resistance), 13281.3 ([+1/8] extreme resistance), 13437.5 ([+2/8] final resistance).

 

Trading tips

 

Sell positions may be opened after the price consolidates below 12968.8 with targets at 12812.5, 12500.0 and stop-loss at 13080.0. 

Long positions may be opened only after the price consolidates above 13125.0 with targets at 13281.3, 13437.5 and stop-loss at 13000.0.

 

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex GBP/USD: the pair is being corrected

 

Current trend

 

Yesterday's data on the British GDP pushed the pair to 2-week maximums at 1.3275. 

 

The growth of the indicators from 0.3% to 0.4% in Q3 2017 gave investors new hope for the first increase of the interest rate by the Bank of England since 2007. The growth of inflation (currently the rate is 3.0%) has long been a concern for the British central bank. Mark Carney said about the possibility of reduction of monetary stimulae already in June. However, the solution has been postponed since then, predominantly due to low salary growth rate in the country which could have influenced the volume of GDP. Now there are no obvious reasons to postpone the increase of the rate. However, the structure of British economic growth is uncertain. In Q3 it was reached mainly due to the sectors of services, trade and IT. Industrial sector showed less growth, and construction one decreased by 0.7%.

 

Support and resistance

 

Currently the price has been corrected to the middle line of Bollinger Bands to the level of 1.3200 and may further move to the waiting mode until the data on the US GDP in Q3 2017 is released tomorrow. However, if the price consolidated below 1.3180 (Fibo correction 23.6%) it may continue to decrease to 1.3110 (lower line of Bollinger Bands) and 1.3030 (gathering of Fibo corrections). A key level for the “bulls” is tomorrow's maximums area at 1.3270 (Fibo correction 23.6%). In case it is broken out growth may resume to 1.3350 (Fibo correction 50.0%) and 1.3415 (Fibo correction 61.8%).

 

Support levels: 1.3180, 1.3110, 1.3030.

Resistance levels: 1.3120, 1.3340, 1.3415.

 

Trading tips

 

In the current situation long positions may be opened above the level of 1.3270 with targets at 1.3340, 1.3415 and stop-loss at 1.3230. 

 

The consolidation of the price below the level of 1.3180 may lead to reduction to the area of 1.3110 and 1.3030. Stop-loss should be placed at 1.3220.

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex GBP/USD: general analysis

 

Current trend

 

In the beginning of the week the GBP/USD grew and almost reached the middle line of Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci corrections around 1.3175. 

 

This week the key events for the instrument are the meeting of Fed and of Bank of England. The US regulator is not expected to change the monetary policy. However, the Bank of England can increase the interest rate, but not for sure. On the one hand, the growth of GDP and inflation in the third quarter makes the regulator to cut the monetary stimulation. On the other hand, a number of BOE officials, such as Jon Cunliffe from, declare the total state of the UK economy insufficient for the interest rate increase. 

 

The question is open, and any of the BOE decisions will cause significant price movement.

 

Support and resistance

 

Technically the price reached the level of 1.3175 (the middle line of Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci correction 23.6%). If the price is set above this level the further movement to the area of 1.3270 (correction 38.2%) is possible. In case of rebound at the level of 1.3175 the fall to the level of 1.3100 and further to October lows at the area of 1.3030 is possible. 

Technical indicators readings are mixed. Stochastic has entered the overbought area, which can reflect the possibility of the reversal. On the other hand, MACD histogram is ready to enter the positive zone and form a buy signal.

 

Resistance levels: 1.3175, 1.3270, 1.3340.

Support levels: 1.3100, 1.3030, 1.2950.

 

Trading tips

 

Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.3140 with the targets at 1.3100, 1.3030 and stop loss at 1.3180. 

The consolidation of the price above the level of 1.3175 will make long positions relevant with the targets at 1.3270, 1.3340 and stop loss at 1.3155.