MikhailLF Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR has been declining against USD during today's Asian session, building on the corrective momentum formed last Tuesday when the instrument reversed downwards after updating its two-year highs. In addition to the development of technical factors, some pressure on EUR on Wednesday is exerted by uncertain data from Germany. Retail Sales in Germany fell by 0.9% MoM in July after decreasing by 1.9% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected positive dynamics at 0.5% MoM. On an annualized basis, Retail Sales slowed down from +6.7% YoY to +4.2% YoY, which, however, turned out to be slightly better than the forecast of a slowdown to +3% YoY. Today, traders are focused on the statistics on Services PMI of the euro area for August and July data on the dynamics of Retail Sales in the euro area. GBP/USD During today's Asian session, GBP is retreating from its record highs, updated on September 1. Investors are fixing long profits against USD practically across the entire spectrum of the market, which triggered a correctional decline. Meanwhile, fundamentally the situation changes little. Earlier it became known that the US Treasury Department again rejected the latest proposal for new measures to support the American economy, put forward by the Democratic Party. American lawmakers continue to demonstrate their inability to agree in a difficult time for the country's economy, which cannot provide any support to USD. Today, British investors are awaiting a speech by the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, who may touch upon the prospects of the regulator's monetary policy for the near future in his speech. NZD/USD NZD has seen a slight decline against USD during today's morning trading session, retreating from record highs since July 2019, updated the day before. The instrument loses about 0.26%, testing the level of 0.6750 for a breakdown. Technical factors contribute to the decline in the instrument, as traders seek to close part of their long positions ahead of the publication of the August US labor market report on Friday. Meanwhile, Wednesday's ADP report on Employment Change in the US was disappointing. According to the published data, employment in the country grew by only 428K new jobs, which turned out to be twice worse than market expectations. Statistics from China provides moderate support to NZD on Thursday. Caixin Services PMI in August fell by only 0.1 points to 54 points, while experts had expected a sharp decline to 50.4 points. USD/JPY USD rallies moderately against JPY during today's Asian session, continuing to develop a weak "bullish" signal that formed earlier in the week. Macroeconomic statistics from the US released yesterday turned out to be mixed, but investors preferred to focus only on the positive moments. The volume of Factory Orders in the US in July showed an increase of 6.4% MoM, repeating the data for the previous period. Experts expected the indicator to slow down to +6% MoM. Today, traders are focused on data on the dynamics of Jobless Claims in the US, as well as the August report from ISM on business activity in the US services sector. Interesting statistics from Japan are not expected until the beginning of next trading week, so investors are likely to continue to discuss the process of forming a new Japanese government after the resignation of Shinzo Abe. XAU/USD Gold prices are consolidating during today's morning session after a strong decline the previous day, which brought the instrument back to 1930.00. On Wednesday, USD almost completely ignored the release of the disappointing ADP employment report, which reflected the growth of new jobs in the private sector, almost half of the predicted values. In turn, gold continues to benefit from the failures of US legislators to develop a new package of measures to support the US economy. https://lite.forex/trading/forex-analysis/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 XAU/USD: general review Current trend During today's Asian session, the price of gold futures contracts rose to the level of 1942.38 after Thursday's correction. Major US indices fell by 3-5% after the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics the day before. The US Trade Deficit in July rose to USD 63.6B from USD 53.5B a month earlier, which turned out to be much worse than the projected growth to USD 58B. The US Services PMI fell from 58.1 to 56.9 points in August, the first decline since April, when the coronavirus pandemic began to affect the market. The publication of disappointing statistics has raised concerns among investors about the recovery of the American economy, causing a cooling of risk sentiment, and increasing their interest in safe-haven assets. Today, market participants are focusing on macroeconomic statistics on the US labor market. According to analysts, the US Unemployment Rate in August could fall to 9.8% from 10.2% in July, and Nonfarm Payrolls could rise by 1.400M after increasing by 1.763M in the previous month. If the forecast proves right, gold may fall under pressure. Support and resistance Bollinger Bands are directed downwards on the 4-hour chart. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone. Stochastic is showing a steady rise, being halfway to the overbought level. Resistance levels: 1942.38, 1951.50, 1972.02, 1992.54. Support levels: 1922.08, 1903.11, 1862.12. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 7, 2020 Share Posted September 7, 2020 USD/CAD: the pair shows ambiguous dynamics Current trend Today, during the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair is growing moderately, recovering from the active decline yesterday due to the market reaction to the publication of ambiguous reports on the US and Canadian labor markets. Now, the dollar has added about 0.32% and is preparing to test the level of 1.3100 for a breakout. Canadian statistics for August reflected a sharp decline in the number of employees from 418.5K to 245.8K, which was significantly worse than market expectations of 275K. The unemployment rate in the country fell from 10.9% to 10.2%, which almost coincided with market forecasts of 10.1%. At the same time, the positive investor sentiment was supported by the average hourly wage, which increased by 6% YoY in August, as well as the Ivey business activity index, which was significantly better than forecasted: 67.8 points against 57.5 points. Support and resistance On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are steadily declining. The price range expands slightly from above, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. The MACD indicator is growing, maintaining a poor buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is also strengthening, signaling in favor of further growth of the instrument in the ultra-short term. The development of upward dynamics is possible in the nearest time intervals. Resistance levels: 1.3100, 1.3132, 1.3160, 1.3200. Support levels: 1.3043, 1.3000, 1.2975, 1.2950. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 8, 2020 Share Posted September 8, 2020 GBP/USD: decline in instrument Current trend The GBP/USD pair is in a downtrend due to USD Index strengthening and is trading around 1.3130. Discussions on a package of agreements on Britain's exit from the EU continue. Yesterday, it became known that the Parliament intends to approve a bill according to which the clause of the Brexit agreement, in which Northern Ireland will be assigned the status of an official subject of the UK customs space, will be canceled. It caused serious discontent from the EU, as it actually violates the terms of the entire agreement. Thus, the already half-forgotten GBP driver is relevant again. Locally, the instrument is under pressure from the growing US dollar. The quotes of the index, which shows the ratio of the US dollar to a basket of world currencies, exceeded 93 points and are at 93.177. Support and resistance The price moves is within the boundaries of the global Expanding formation pattern, approaching the support line within the fifth wave. The likelihood of a further decline is quite high, as indicated by technical indicators: Alligator indicator’s EMA fluctuations range is expanded, and the AO oscillator histogram is below the zero line with a downward trend. Considering the statistics of this pattern, the probability of the formation of the sixth upward wave is more than 70%. Resistance levels: 1.3170, 1.3260. Support levels: 1.3090, 1.2970. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 NZD/USD: technical analysis Current trend The NZD/USD pair has significantly corrected downward after rising and is currently trading near the level of 0.6628. The global ascending channel is on the verge of implementation, and the instrument is moving near the support line. Today, it may try to break it again. Locally, inside the channel, the Head and shoulders reversal pattern finishes forming, and in case of successful completion of the Second shoulder, the required sell signal will be received. Technical indicators are already reversing downwards: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed, and the AO oscillator histogram continues to decline, approaching the transition level. Support and resistance Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6790. Support levels: 0.6525, 0.6290. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 EUR/USD: the pair is correcting upward Current trend The EUR/USD pair is correcting upwards due to the decline in the US dollar against the basket of world currencies and is trading around 1.1825. Today, the ECB meeting should be held, at which a decision on monetary policy for the next quarter will be made. Although most analysts do not expect the current rate to be changed, there are concerns about further easing. In August, floating inflation reached the level of –0.2%, which is a critical value requiring immediate measures, the most effective of which will be to reduce the interest rate to the negative zone. The American currency, which showed strength at the beginning of the week, began to decline again, and the reasons are again not economic. The air temperature in the state of California continues to break records and is approaching 50 degrees Celsius, which has already provoked the strongest forest fires that are approaching large cities. In this regard, grid operators are warning of possible power outages in Los Angeles. Support and resistance Yesterday, the asset quotes left the ascending channel, breaking the support line, and tries to consolidate below it. Technical indicators point downwards. Alligator indicator’s EMA fluctuations range narrows but the fast EMAs have not yet crossed. AO histogram is below the zero line. Resistance levels: 1.1850, 1.2000. Support levels: 1.1750, 1.1580. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 USD/CAD: USD tries to correct Current trend USD shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against CAD today. Yesterday the instrument showed moderate growth, despite the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics on the dynamics of jobless claims in the US. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 4 remained at the same level of 884K, which turned out to be worse than the market's expectations, which expected a decrease to 846K. Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending August 28 rose by 13.385M, following an increase of 13.292M in the prior period. Investors expected a slowdown in the growth rate of the indicator to 12.925M. Today traders are focused on the US statistics on consumer inflation for August. Market forecasts assume that the growth of consumer prices in August will slow down from +0.6% MoM to +0.3% MoM. Canada will release the data on the level of Capacity Utilization for Q2 2020. Support and resistance Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is narrowing from above insignificantly, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading of recent days. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having approached the level of "80", reversed downwards, responding to the surge of the "bearish" trend at the trading on Wednesday. To open new trading positions, it is necessary to wait for the signals from technical indicators to be clarified. Resistance levels: 1.3200, 1.3250, 1.3300, 1.3350. Support levels: 1.3160, 1.3132, 1.3100, 1.3043. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR shows insignificant growth against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the moderate "bullish" impulse formed at the end of previous week. EUR is testing 1.1850, waiting for new drivers to appear on the market. Today, European investors are awaiting the publication of July data on the dynamics of industrial production in the eurozone. Forecasts assume that on a monthly basis, Production will accelerate from +9.1% MoM to +10% MoM, while the annual rate is likely to indicate a deterioration in dynamics from –12.3% YoY to –18.3% YoY. In addition, the market continues to analyze the results of the last week's speech by the ECB President Christine Lagarde. The regulator did not change the parameters of monetary policy, and Lagarde took a wait and see attitude, not responding to a noticeable increase in the EUR/USD rate which started in March. GBP/USD GBP is marginally strengthening against USD in the trading of today's morning session, retreating from the local lows since July 24, updated at the end of last week. The growth of GBP is technical in nature, while the pair continues to remain under the pressure of sharply increased risks associated with the hard Brexit. Markets are still trying to figure out what Boris Johnson is trying to achieve, having stepped up criticism of the EU recently. Last week the British government passed a bill that could allow the UK to actually violate international law on the issue of trade with Northern Ireland. It is possible that these are only political machinations, which are designed to bargain with the EU for the best terms of the deal, but so far Johnson's position looks quite plausible. AUD/USD AUD is trading near zero against USD during today's Asian session, developing mostly flat dynamics at the end of the last trading week. Last Friday's macroeconomic statistics from the US was again ambiguous. In August, the Consumer Price Index in the USA slowed down from +0.6% MoM to +0.4% MoM, which was slightly better than market expectations at +0.3% MoM. In annual terms, inflation accelerated from +1% YoY to +1.3% YoY with the forecast of growth by 1.2% YoY. Excluding food and energy, prices increased by 0.4% MoM and 1.7% YoY, which was also slightly better than the forecasts of +0.2% MoM and +1.6% YoY. Interesting statistics from the US and Australia are not expected today, but on Tuesday Australia will publish the minutes of the last RBA meeting and will release a quarterly survey of consumer sentiment from Westpac. USD/JPY USD is trading in different directions against JPY in today's Asian session, developing a flat channel that formed at the beginning of the month. The ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the US on the dynamics of consumer inflation, published at the end of last week, did not provide significant support to USD, while JPY was expecting the publication of new drivers. Today's macroeconomic statistics from Japan provide moderate support to JPY, as a result of which the pair is actively testing the level of 106.00 for a breakdown. Industrial production in July increased by 8.7% MoM, accelerating from the previous value of +8% MoM. In annual terms, the pace of production decreased by 15.5% YoY, also slightly better than forecasts at the level of –16.1% YoY. Capacity Utilization rose by 9.6% in July, after rising by 6.2% in June. XAU/USD Gold prices are slightly strengthening during today's morning trading, testing 1950.00 for a breakout. Quotes are recovering, offsetting the decline at the end of the last trading week, when the ECB representatives reaffirmed their commitment to a wait and see attitude. The President of the European regulator Christine Lagarde did not react to the high rate of EUR, and also disappointed those investors who were counting on additional measures to stimulate the economy. At the same time, the demand for gold remained high amid persisting epidemiological risks. In addition, traders are actively discussing the upcoming US presidential elections and the inability of US lawmakers to approve new measures to support the economy. Last week, the US Senate again blocked a proposal from the Republican Party to allocate USD 300 billion to combat the consequences of the epidemic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 WTI Crude Oil: oil prices consolidate Current trend Oil prices show flat trading dynamics, trading near the level of $37 per barrel. The weakness of USD, which is again fixed on almost the entire spectrum of the market, does not allow the instrument to recover, as prices are still under the pressure of uncertainty in the global economy. Also, investors react negatively to reports that Libya intends to resume oil production, which could have a devastating effect on the fragile balance of global supply and demand. Earlier, OPEC said that oil demand will decrease by 9.46 million barrels per day this year, which is much worse than previous estimates. On Tuesday, traders wait for a block of US statistics on the dynamics of industrial production and the report of the American Petroleum Institute on oil reserves for the week of September 11. The previous data reflected an increase of 2.97 million barrels. Support and resistance On the daily chart, Bollinger bands moderately decline. The price range narrows slightly, remaining spacious enough for the current level of market activity. MACD tries trying to reverse upwards; however, it keeps the sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic grows more actively but now its dynamics is weakly correlated with the real situation on the market. To open new trading positions, it is better to wait for the signals from technical indicators to be clarified. Resistance levels: 38.00, 38.41, 39.31, 40.00. Support levels: 36.75, 36.00, 35.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR is trading near zero against USD during today's Asian session, hovering at 1.1850. The day before, EUR managed to demonstrate moderate growth against USD and even updated local highs since September 10, but the "bulls" failed to consolidated at new levels (at 1.1900). The instrument was supported moderately by the data from Germany, released on Tuesday. ZEW Economic Sentiment in September rose from 71.5 to 77.4 points, which turned out to be better than the negative forecasts, which assumed a decrease in the indicator to 69.8 points. In the euro area, ZEW Survey showed a moderate increase in Economic Sentiment in September from 64 to 73.9 points, which also exceeded the projected 62.8 points. Today, investors are focused on the publication of the final minutes of the two-day Fed meeting on the interest rate. In addition, traders are awaiting the release of the August statistics on the dynamics of retail sales in the United States. GBP/USD GBP is marginally strengthening against USD during today's Asian trading session, building on the corrective momentum that formed earlier this week. The instrument is steadily retreating from its two-month lows, although the positions of GBP are still under pressure from the ambiguous prospects around the Brexit trade deal. The macroeconomic statistics from the UK published on Tuesday was contradictory. Claimant Count Change in August rose again by 73.7K after increasing by 69.9K in the previous period, which turned out to be much better than market expectations, which assumed a sharp increase in the figure by 100K. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate from ILO in July, as expected, increased from 3.9% to 4.1%. Claimant Count Rate in August increased from 7.4% to 7.6%. AUD/USD AUD is developing upward dynamics against USD and is growing again this morning session. The day before, the pair showed one of the strongest gains in recent years; however, it failed to consolidate at new levels, and by the end of the afternoon session the instrument had lost most of the positions it had won. AUD was strongly supported by the data from China. Industrial Production rose sharply in August by 5.6% YoY after increasing by 4.8% YoY in the previous month. Analysts were expecting strong data, but hoped for +5.1% YoY. Retail Sales for the same period increased by 0.5% YoY after rising by 1.1% YoY a month earlier. Additional support to AUD was provided by the neutral minutes of the RBA meeting, published on Tuesday. As expected, the regulator did not change the parameters of monetary policy, and the question of lowering the rate in the near future was not raised. USD/JPY USD declines against JPY during today's Asian trading session, developing an ultra-short term downtrend that formed earlier this week. The pair is losing about 0.1% and testing the level of 105.25, the lowest since August 28, for a breakdown. The positions of USD remain vulnerable before today's publication of the final minutes of the Fed meeting, while JPY is receiving timid support from macroeconomic publications from Japan. Today's data showed improved Exports in Japan. In August, export volumes fell by 14.8% YoY, recovering slightly from the previous decline of 19.2% YoY. Imports for the same period fell by 20.8% YoY after a decline of 22.3% YoY last month. Improved export dynamics led to an increase in Japan's Trade Balance in August from JPY 10.9B to JPY 248.3B. XAU/USD Gold prices are slightly strengthening during today's Asian session, offsetting the weak decline the day before and trying to recover to two-week local highs. The negative dynamics for the instrument on Tuesday was facilitated by the uncertain growth of USD, caused by a number of technical factors. In turn, expectations of new easing of monetary policy by the Fed kept the pair from a stronger correction. Support was also provided by weak data from the US. Industrial Production in the US in August grew by only 0.4% MoM after a sharp increase of 3.5% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected growth of 1% MoM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 USD/JPY: the pair declines again Current trend The USD/JPY pair declined amid negative investor reaction to the US Federal Reserve's decision, trading at 105.00. Today, the Bank of Japan kept its course, chosen back in 2016, and kept the interest rate at –0.10%. In an explanatory letter, the regulator noted that it will continue to purchase Japanese government bonds so that the yield on 10-year JGB will remain near the zero level. The bank will begin to actively acquire ETFs and real estate in Japan, as well as investment trusts. The volume of corporate bonds in circulation will remain at 3 trillion yen. In general, the decision is absolutely expected, which has hardly influenced the market so far. Last night, the US Federal Reserve decided to keep the current monetary policy unchanged, and the interest rate remained at 0.25%. FOMC forecasts for economic performance in the future did not instill optimism in the market. The level of real GDP by the end of the year is expected to be no higher than –3.7%, and the unemployment rate will drop below 7.6%. Support and resistance The pair exited the local Triangle pattern and declines within the next downward wave within the global channel. Technical indicators issued a new sell signal. Alligator indicator’s EMA fluctuations range began to expand downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator moved into the negative zone. Resistance levels: 105.40, 106.90. Support levels: 104.70, 103.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR shows insignificant gains against USD during today's Asian session, developing a correctional impulse that formed yesterday, when the instrument retreated from its local lows since August 12. The recovery of EUR is facilitated by the weakening of USD after a short growth against the background of the results of the Fed meeting. On Wednesday, the regulator left interest rates and volumes of the quantitative easing program unchanged, noting the readiness to use all available instruments, as well as the need for additional stimulation of the national economy. Additional pressure on USD was provided by data from the US. The number of Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 11 fell from 893K to 860K, which was slightly worse than market expectations of 850K. Building Permits in August reflected a drop of 0.9% MoM after rising by 17.9% MoM in July. Markets expected a moderate 4.4% MoM growth. GBP/USD GBP is showing ambiguous dynamics at the end of the trading week, consolidating near 1.2950. Yesterday, investors took a lead from the published minutes of the Bank of England meeting, which provoked a sharp decline in the instrument during the day. As expected, the regulator made no changes into the monetary policy parameters. The rate remained at 0.1%, and the asset purchase facility remained at the level of GBP 745 billion. At the same time, it became known that members of the board were considering the potential possibility of applying negative interest rates, if the economic situation so requires. Investors reacted to such statements with a wave of selling; however, by the end of the trading session on Thursday, GBP still managed to win back most of its losses. Additional pressure on the instrument remains due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. The bill proposed by the British Prime Minister effectively thwarted the negotiation process, which was already not particularly optimistic. AUD/USD AUD strengthens marginally against USD during today's Asian trading session, developing flat dynamics in the short term. AUD is recovering after a hesitant attempt by USD to strengthen amid the publication of neutral minutes from the Fed meeting. The instrument was supported by the data from Australia the day before. The markets reacted rather optimistically to the decline in the Unemployment Rate in Australia from 7.5% to 6.8%, while forecasts assumed its growth to 7.7%. At the same time, the Employment Change increased by 111K after increasing by 119.2K last month. Analysts had expected employment to drop by 50K jobs. Today, investors are focused on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index release in the US. USD/JPY USD is showing corrective gains during today's morning trading session, retreating from local lows since July 31, updated the day before. The growth of the instrument is supported by technical factors, as investors fix their profits before the weekend. In addition, JPY positions on Friday are under pressure from not the most confident macroeconomic statistics from Japan. National Consumer Price Index slowed down in August from +0.3% YoY to +0.2% YoY, which turned out to be sharply worse than market expectations of growth to +0.6% YoY. National Consumer Price Index Excluding Food and Energy slowed down from +0.4% YoY to +0.2% YoY, which also turned out to be worse than the neutral forecasts. XAU/USD Gold prices show corrective growth during today's Asian session, recovering after the decline the day before. The asset fell by more than 1% on Thursday, responding to the minutes of the Fed meeting published on Wednesday, which did not contain specific measures to further support the US economy. Moreover, the regulator tried to support the markets by issuing updated, more optimistic forecasts for the pace of economic recovery and normalization of the situation in the labor market. In turn, the minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England, released yesterday, contributed to a moderate rise in gold. The regulator did not change the parameters of monetary policy; however, traders learned that the Bank of England is seriously considering the prospects of introducing negative interest rates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR shows a slight increase against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after an active decline the day before, which led to the renewal of local lows of August 12. Noticeable pressure on EUR on Monday was exerted by the speech of the ECB President, Christine Lagarde, who said that the regulator carefully analyzes the euro exchange rate against other currencies when determining the vector of monetary policy. The specifics were quite sparse, but markets are still wary of additional intervention from the ECB, as the economic situation in the region remains uncertain. Today, European investors are focused on the speech of the ECB representative Fabio Panetta, as well as on the publication of information on Consumer Confidence in the euro area in September. GBP/USD GBP is trading ambiguously against USD during today's morning session, consolidating near 1.2820 after a strong decline the day before. By the end of Monday, GBP fell noticeably, losing more than 1% and updating local lows against USD since September 14, in response to possible tightening of quarantine restrictions in the UK due to the increase in cases of COVID-19. According to preliminary estimates of experts, without additional restraining measures, by mid-October, the incidence rate in the country may rise to 50 thousand new cases per day. In addition, investors are still assessing the prospects for a trade agreement between the UK and the EU before the end of the transition period after Brexit. Despite a number of optimistic comments from European officials that the conclusion of an agreement is still possible, Boris Johnson's actions raise a number of questions. AUD/USD AUD is showing ambiguous trading versus USD during today's Asian session, having managed to update local lows since September 9 at the opening. Investors expect new drivers to appear on the market, but for now the focus is only on the speeches of officials who do not bring anything fundamentally new to the market. The macroeconomic calendar is almost empty so far. Published on Monday, Chicago Fed National Activity Index in August fell sharply from 2.54 to 0.79 points against the forecast of a decline only to 1.95 points. Today, investors are focused on Existing Home Sales in the US, as well as on the speech of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in the US Congress. US lawmakers still have not been able to decide on a new package of economic assistance. USD/JPY USD is trading lower against JPY during today's Asian session. The instrument is testing the level of 104.50 for a breakdown, taking a lead from the generally neutral background of the beginning of the new week. Markets in Japan were closed on Monday to celebrate the Autumnal Equinox, so the main focus of investor attention was shifted to the speech of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the US FOMC member Lael Brainard. Today, traders are expecting Powell to speak again, but this time in Congress, where he will report on the implementation of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act). XAU/USD Gold prices are relatively stable during today's morning trading session, consolidating near 1900.00 after a strong decline the previous day. The instrument lost more than 3.5% on Monday, responding to the correctional growth of USD. At the same time, the activity of the "bulls" on USD remains reduced, as investors are afraid of the adoption of new measures to stimulate the American economy, the need for which is long overdue. This week there will be several speeches by the Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, who, among other things, will speak on new measures to support the economy. Gold, in turn, has received some support from news from Europe, where there is an alarming upward trend in new cases of COVID-19. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 XAU/USD: gold on the cusp of new lows Current trend Gold prices are slightly declining today, developing a "bearish" signal, formed at the end of last week, but staying within the local lows, updated on September 21. Gold is depreciating amid a growing USD, which has received support from the difficult situation with COVID-19 in Europe, where some countries are considering returning some of the quarantine restrictions. American investors are also worried about the prospect of new stimulus measures in the USA, which have been the subject of the most heated debate for a long time. This week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will hold a series of speeches in Congress, where they will talk about their vision of the current economic situation. Mnuchin's speech attracts the most attention, since Powell's position is well known to the markets and he is unlikely to say anything new. Support and resistance Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a slight decrease. The price range is widening actively but does not conform to the development of the downtrend yet. MACD is going down keeping a fairly stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic demonstrates a similar dynamics, but is approaching its lows, signaling future risks of the oversold instrument in the nearest future. The current showings of the indicators do not contradict the further development of the downtrend. Resistance levels: 1895.06, 1910.00, 1935.00, 1955.00. Support levels: 1876.23, 1850.00, 1830.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 25, 2020 Share Posted September 25, 2020 XAU/USD: weak upward correction Current trend Gold prices are trading near zero during today's Asian session, developing a weak upward correction, the momentum for which was formed the day before, after the instrument renewed local lows since July 22. The emergence of corrective dynamics in favor of gold is facilitated by the weakening of USD, which has shown moderate growth all week amid fears of a slowdown in the global economic recovery. The pressure on USD on Thursday came from uncertain data on the dynamics of Initial Jobless Claims in the US, which increased market fears about the urgent need for new measures to stimulate the American economy. In turn, statistics on the dynamics of New Home Sales in the USA provided moderate support to USD. In August, sales increased by 4.8% MoM after a sharp 14.7% MoM growth last month. Analysts had expected a decline by 1% MoM. Support and resistance Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range is actively widening from below but does not conform to the surge of the "bearish" sentiment yet. MACD is going down preserving a moderate sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, having dropped below the level of "20", reversed into a horizontal plane, reacting to an attempt at corrective growth at the end of the week. To open new positions, it is necessary to wait for the trade signals to become clear. Resistance levels: 1876.94, 1895.06, 1910.00, 1935.00. Support levels: 1850.00, 1830.00, 1808.71. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 EUR/USD: the decline slowed down Current trend Since the opening of trading, the EUR/USD pair has been trying to recover, trading at 1.1635. Amid growing concerns about the growing number of COVID-19 cases in Europe, the instrument is declining. Yesterday, French Prime Minister Jean Castex warned that the government could re-introduce quarantine measures in several regions of the country if the number of cases continues to rise. Macroeconomic data is also deteriorating. Thus, the German IFO business climate index for September amounted to 93.4 points, down from the forecast by 93.8 points. The US dollar index is retreating from its local highs after the publication of reports that the US court did not allow the US government to block the TikTok application. On November 12, the ban on downloading the application in the United States was supposed to come into force but Judge Carl Nichols sided with the owner of the application and rejected its entry into force. Macroeconomic statistics from the United States is not positive either. Core orders for durable goods for August fell to 0.4% from 3.2% for July. Support and resistance The price is in the global ascending channel, moving down within the next downward wave. Fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal one downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram moved into the sell zone, which indicates a strong downward signal. Resistance levels: 1.1700, 1.2000. Support levels: 1.1600, 1.1270. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted September 29, 2020 Share Posted September 29, 2020 EUR/USD: waiting for new drivers Current trend EUR has shown slight gains against USD during today's Asian session, building on a weak "bullish" momentum formed yesterday as EUR retreated from its two-month lows. The macroeconomic background for EUR remains neutral, and the main driver of the instrument's growth is technical factors. Investors are alarmed by the rising incidence of COVID-19 in Europe. France and the UK have already returned a number of restrictive measures, and traders fear the return of a full-fledged lockdown, which will jeopardize all plans and hopes for a gradual recovery of the region's economy. Today, investors are focused on economic sentiment statistics in the euro area for September. In addition, the markets are awaiting September statistics on the dynamics of consumer inflation in Germany. The forecasts do not expect significant changes in the indicator. In the US, Redbook Retail Sales data are to be released, and several speeches by representatives of the Fed are expected. Support and resistance Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range is almost unchanged, but it remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is reversing upwards preserving a sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, retreating from its lows and signaling in favor of growth in the ultra-short term. It is worth looking into the possibility of full-fledged growth in the short and/or ultra-short term. Resistance levels: 1.1700, 1.1751, 1.1780, 1.1808. Support levels: 1.1657, 1.1625, 1.1600. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted October 1, 2020 Share Posted October 1, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR is again trading with positive dynamics against USD during today's Asian session, recovering to previous local highs after an uncertain correction the day before. The positions of EUR were somewhat weakened by the rather optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the US, while the European data did not have a noticeable effect on the dynamics of the market. Instead, investors widely discussed the speech of the ECB President Christine Lagarde, who noted that the regulator could follow the path of the US Fed and allow a short-term excess of the inflation target in order to "catch up" with the previous rates of economic growth. In addition, traders are still seriously concerned about the coronavirus situation. The second wave is likely to make significant adjustments to the current forecasts from leading regulators. Today, investors are focused on the publication of data on the Unemployment Rate in the euro area for August. Markets will also be watching a special summit of the EU heads who will gather to discuss the situations in Belarus and Nagorno-Karabakh. GBP/USD GBP shows growth against USD during today's morning session, updating local highs of September 21. GBP is strengthening against the backdrop of weak USD positions, as well as hopes for a trade agreement between the UK and the EU by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the US macroeconomic statistics published on Wednesday provided significant support to the USD. ADP's Employment Change report indicated an increase of 749K jobs in September after rising by 481K in the previous period. Analysts had expected an increase of 650K. However, it should be noted that the positive statistics from ADP was partially offset by news of large-scale layoffs at Walt Disney and Shell. Disney Corporation announced 28K job cuts, while Shell intends to lay off almost 9K of its employees. Today, British investors are awaiting a speech by Andrew Haldane from the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. NZD/USD NZD maintains its "bullish" momentum during today's Asian session and is updating local highs since September 23. Buyers' activity is gradually decreasing, as the positions of USD look more and more attractive against the background of the existing risks in the global economy. Investors are noticeably concerned about the epidemiological situation in the world, which provokes an increase in demand for safe assets. In addition, the USA is preparing for the presidential election, which can also make significant adjustments to the dynamics of the market. In turn, support for NZD is provided by strong statistics from China. Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI in September increased from 55.2 to 55.9 points with the forecast of the decline to 52.1 points. NBS Manufacturing PMI for the same period strengthened from 51 to 51.5 points, which also turned out to be better than market expectations of 51.2 points. Today, traders are focused on the data from the US on the dynamics of personal income and spending, and on business activity in the manufacturing sector. USD/JPY USD shows the flat dynamics of trading against JPY during today's morning session, consolidating after another update of local highs the day before. On Wednesday, USD updated its highs since September 15; however, the "bulls" failed to consolidate at new levels, despite the publication of a strong report from ADP. Buying activity in USD is significantly limited ahead of the release of the final report on the US labor market this Friday. Japanese data released today were controversial and did not provide any support to JPY. Tankan Large Manufacturing Index in Q3 2020 increased from –34 to –27 points, which turned out to be worse than the market expectations of an increase to –23 points. Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index for the same period strengthened from –17 to –12 points, while analysts expected growth to –9 points. XAU/USD Gold prices have returned to growth during today's Asian trading session in an attempt to recover to the previous local highs, updated the day before. USD received not the most confident impetus for growth yesterday, responding to the first debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, as well as from the publication of a rather strong ADP Employment Change report, which somewhat softened the general negative sentiment. At the end of the week, the September labor market report will be published in the US. According to forecasts, Non-Farm Payrolls could be reduced from 1.371M to 850K. In turn, the instrument feels support from the previous factors including the difficult epidemiological situation in the world and the upcoming elections in the US, which will become another source of uncertainty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR is declining against USD during today's Asian session, consolidating near 1.1700 and local highs since September 22, updated the day before. Another decline in EUR is due to technical factors, as investors fix their long positions ahead of the publication of the September report on the US labor market. The previously strong ADP report on private sector employment provided significant support to market sentiment. It is likely that Friday's statistics will also be better than forecasts, which, however, will only provide USD with a short-term support. The market today reacts to any optimistic signals from the US with an increase in demand for risky assets. European investors today expect the publication of data on Consumer Prices in the euro area in September. In addition, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos will speak during the day. GBP/USD GBP is declining during this morning session, developing the corrective impulse formed the day before, when the pair retreated from its highs since September 18. Market participants are closing part of their long positions on the instrument before the publication of the US labor market report for September. In addition, investors are concerned about the rapid increase in the number of new cases of coronavirus, which could significantly complicate the recovery of the British economy. Yesterday, the UK reported a decline in the Manufacturing PMI from 54.3 to 54.1 points, while analysts did not expect it to change at all. The US data was slightly better, but also reflected a slowdown in growth. The ISM Manufacturing PMI in September fell from 56 to 55.4 points against the forecast of growth to 56.3 points. AUD/USD AUD has declined against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs since September 22, updated on Thursday. The instrument loses about 0.35%, testing the level of 0.7150 for a breakdown. Buying activity for the instrument is expected to decline at the end of the week, as investors are fixing long profits. In addition, traders are in no hurry to open new positions before the publication of the report on the US labor market, which, given the previously published strong report from ADP, may be positive. AUD was slightly supported on Friday by the Australian Retail Sales statistics. In August, sales were down by 4% MoM after falling by 4.2% MoM in the previous month. USD/JPY USD is growing during today's morning trading session, again approaching its local highs since September 15, which were updated at trading last Wednesday. USD is strengthening after yesterday's publication of rather optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the US. At the same time, it should be noted that strong data from the US is leading to an increase in demand for risky assets; however, paired with the "safe" JPY, USD is expected to win. The number of Initial Jobless Claims in the US for the week ending September 25 fell from 873K to 837K, which was better than market expectations of 850K. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index was also positive, having increased by 1.6% YoY in August, accelerating from the previous value of +1.4% YoY. JPY was also under pressure from weak data from Japan. Japan's Unemployment Rate in August rose from 2.9% to 3.0%, and the Jobs/Applicants Ratio for the same period corrected from 1.08 to 1.04. XAU/USD Gold prices decline significantly during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs since September 22, updated the day before. Investors are fixing long positions ahead of the release of reports on the US labor market on Friday, as well as responding to some improvement in market sentiment. Strong data from the US supported the demand for risk, especially after the US Treasury officials said that the chances of early approval of the new economic aid package increased markedly. At the same time, gold continues to benefit from rising coronavirus incidence statistics in Europe. The trend has not yet been reversed, as many countries are reluctant to return quarantine restrictions, fearing to disrupt the fragile economic recovery. Today investors are focused on the publication of the US labor market report. Investors expect the emergence of 850K new jobs in Non-Farm Payrolls, which is significantly less than the previous growth of 1.371M. However, given the strong performance in private sector employment, it is possible that the real dynamics will be noticeably better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR is showing weak gains against USD during today's Asian session, recovering from last Friday's decline, which turned out to be quite rich in various news drivers. First of all, the markets discussed Donald Trump's sudden quarantine in connection with a positive test for COVID-19. Investors fear that Trump will not be able to continue the political race in such conditions, with only about a month left before the presidential elections. Some pressure on the positions of EUR on Friday was exerted by the data from the eurozone. Consumer Price Index in September fell by 0.3% YoY, accelerating from the previous decrease by 0.2% YoY. Core Consumer Price Index for the same period decelerated from +0.4% YoY to +0.2% YoY, while forecasts assumed its growth to +0.5% YoY. On Monday, investors are focused on the European statistics on Markit Services PMI, as well as the August data on the dynamics of Retail Sales in the euro area. GBP/USD GBP is showing flat dynamics of trading during today's morning session, maintaining a weak "bullish" advantage, preserved from last week. GBP buying activity is noticeably weakening amid new statements by Boris Johnson, who reiterated that the UK will be able to do without a trade agreement with the EU after the Brexit transition period ends at the end of the year. However, the Prime Minister stressed that he would like a different outcome of the situation, but so far the parties are faced with insurmountable contradictions during the negotiations. The US macroeconomic statistics released on Friday had an ambiguous impact on the market dynamics. In September Non-Farm Payrolls showed growth only by 661K new jobs, while last month was marked by an increase of 1.489M. Experts expected the growth by 850K. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate in the USA in September has steadily decreased from 8.4% to 7.9% against the forecast of 8.2%. AUD/USD AUD is trading in both directions against USD in the ultra-short term, being located near its local highs and the level of 0.7200. Investors reacted rather restrainedly to Friday's data on the US labor market, because Donald Trump's positive test for COVID-19 became the main subject of speculation unexpectedly for everyone. The news of the US President's illness increased the uncertainty ahead of the upcoming November elections, and helped to reduce the demand for risky assets. Moderate support for AUD at the beginning of the week is provided by macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Commonwealth Bank Services PMI in September rose from 50 to 50.8 points, which was better than the neutral forecasts of analysts. Commonwealth Bank Composite PMI for the same period strengthened from 50.5 to 51.1 points. TD Securities Inflation data in September reflected growth by 0.1% MoM and 1.3% YoY, which was in line with previous estimates. USD/JPY USD is gaining strength against JPY during today's Asian session. The instrument adds about 0.23% and is testing the level of 105.60 for a breakout. USD again received an impulse to grow as a safe-haven currency after Donald Trump tested positive for coronavirus, which became the main topic of speculation at the end of last week. Japanese statistics, published on Friday, failed to provide significant support to JPY. The Unemployment Rate in August rose from 2.9% to 3.0%, which was expected. Jobs / Applicants Ratio in August decreased from 1.08 to 1.04 against the forecast of 1.05. At the same time, the Consumer Confidence Index in September rose from 29.3 to 32.7 points, which, however, did not meet investors' expectations at 33.8 points. XAU/USD Gold prices are declining during today's Asian session, developing a correctional decline since last Friday, when the instrument retreated from its local highs since September 22. The appearance of "bearish" trend was facilitated by the corrective sentiment in the market, which intensified at the end of last week with the unexpected message about Donald Trump's positive test for coronavirus. Now investors are trying to predict the possible consequences of the forced quarantine of the US President, which is especially important on the eve of the presidential election, which is only a month away. Trump's rival for the presidency, Joe Biden, has also drawn attention in this regard. Analysts do not exclude the possibility of postponing the elections in the event of a hypothetical infection of Biden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 EUR/USD: general review Current trend EUR shows insignificant growth against USD during today's Asian session, developing a strong "bullish" impulse formed yesterday. Market sentiment improved markedly yesterday after reports that President Donald Trump could be discharged from the hospital soon. In addition, traders again believed in the imminent approval of a new stimulus package for the US economy, which was probably also facilitated by Trump's diagnosis. Macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone released on Monday provided additional support to EUR. Retail Sales in the euro area increased by 4.4% MoM in August after falling by 1.8% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected increase by 2.4% MoM only. On an annualized basis, sales increased by 3.7% YoY after falling by 0.1% YoY. The forecast assumed growth by 2.2% YoY. Support and resistance Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is changing slightly, but remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). The indicator is also testing the zero level for a breakout. Stochastic, approaching the level of "80" shows multidirectional dynamics, signaling that EUR is overbought in the ultra-short term. Existing long positions should be kept until technical indicators are clarified. Resistance levels: 1.1808, 1.1860, 1.1881, 1.1916. Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1751, 1.1700, 1.1657. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR is showing ambiguous trading dynamics during today's Asian session, consolidating at 1.1730. The day before, EUR showed a steady decline and retreated from its local highs since September 21, which was associated with a rather unexpected statement from Donald Trump, who suspended negotiations on a new program to support the US economy until the November elections. Interestingly, Trump made this statement just a few hours after the speech by the US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who reiterated the urgent need for new stimulus measures and pointed out the risks of a recession in the American economy. The President of the ECB Christine Lagarde also spoke about the need for new support measures on Tuesday, reminding the markets that the regulator is still able to reduce rates to negative values. GBP/USD GBP is trading with multidirectional dynamics during today's morning session, slightly recovering after the active decline the day before, which interrupted the uncertain "bullish" trend for the instrument since September 24. GBP reacted with a confident fall to the statements of Donald Trump, who decided to end the controversy over a new stimulus program for the US economy and postponed this process until after the November presidential elections. Investors were disappointed with these statements, as at the beginning of the week the market was dominated by direct opposite sentiments and traders were selling USD on growing expectations of a quick approval of a new package of measures. Today, traders are focused on the US Fed Meeting Minutes and the speech by the Fed representative John Williams. AUD/USD AUD shows a slight increase against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after an active decline yesterday, which was triggered by a new wave of growth in investor demand for safe assets. USD has significantly strengthened after Donald Trump's statement on the decision to postpone the discussion of a new package of measures to support the American economy until the November presidential elections. Some pressure on AUD on Tuesday was also exerted by the decision of the RBA to keep interest rate at 0.25%. However, despite extensive discussion of the possibility of further rate cuts, little was expected from the regulator at the current meeting. The dynamics of Exports was much more disappointing, as the figure fell by 4.2% MoM in August after falling by 3.4% MoM in the previous month. Against the background of a slowdown in Imports from +6.2% MoM to +2% MoM, this led to a sharp decrease in the Trade Surplus from AUD 4.652B to AUD 2.643B, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations at AUD 5.154B. USD/JPY USD has shown a slight increase during today's morning trading session, recovering from an uncertain decline the day before, which did not allow USD to consolidate at new local highs since September 15. The market has actively reacted to Donald Trump's intention to suspend the process of discussing new support measures for the American economy, but JPY is already in high demand as a safe haven currency today. The speech of the US Federal Reserve head Jerome Powell also contributed to the reduction of the demand for risk on Tuesday. The Chairman of the regulator noted that the process of recovery of the American economy is far from complete and there are still significant downside risks on the market, associated with the renewed increase in the incidence of coronavirus. Powell called for support for households, but now it seems that this will have to wait a while, unless party representatives are able to take the initiative and make significant concessions. XAU/USD Gold prices are showing ambiguous dynamics during today's Asian session, staying below 1900.00, the breakdown of which was recorded the day before. The strengthening of the "bearish" dynamics on Tuesday was associated with a rather unexpected statement by Donald Trump, who decided to suspend the negotiations on a new fiscal stimulus package until the end of the presidential elections in November. The President's statement came against the backdrop of numerous calls for further support for the American economy, as well as against the backdrop of outlined progress in the discussions (at the beginning of the week, regular talks were held between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted October 8, 2020 Share Posted October 8, 2020 USD/CAD: the instrument consolidates Current trend Today during the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair shows ambiguous dynamics, trading near the local lows of September 21. Yesterday, USD fell after a corrective growth on Tuesday, when markets reacted violently to Trump's sudden announcement of a freeze on negotiations under a new program to support the American economy. Canadian Wednesday’s macroeconomic statistics was rather poor. Thus, the index of business activity from Ivey for September fell from 67.8 to 54.3 points, which was worse than the market average forecasts. On Thursday, Canadian investors are awaiting the publication of information on the dynamics of construction started in September. By the opening of the American session, the focus will shift to the speech of the head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, who only recently took office (June 3, 2020). On Friday, the September report on the Canadian labor market will be released, as the corresponding from the US released last week. Support and resistance On the daily chart, Bollinger bands grow uncertainly. The price range changes insignificantly but remains wide enough for the current level of market activity. MACD falls, maintaining a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic reversed upwards at the lows, reflecting that the dollar is oversold in the super short term. To open new trading positions, it is better to wait until the signals from technical indicators are clarified. Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3350, 1.3400, 1.3440. Support levels: 1.3241, 1.3200, 1.3160, 1.3132. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR is showing moderate gains against USD during today's Asian session, recovering to previous local highs, updated on October 6. Market sentiment is gradually improving after the softening of the position of Donald Trump, who earlier announced the suspension of negotiations on a financial assistance program for the American economy. The US President said that he would consider the possibility of direct support of the labor market through an increase in unemployment benefits, if such a bill is formed. As for the full-scale package of measures, Trump plans to return to its consideration after the presidential elections, of course, if he manages to win them. Some support for EUR on Thursday was provided by the ECB September meeting minutes, which again reflected the readiness of the regulator to go for additional easing of the monetary policy if necessary. GBP/USD GBP is trading positively against USD during today's morning session, developing ultra-short-term "bullish" momentum and returning to local highs of last Tuesday. Risk demand is gradually recovering towards the end of the week, as investors react to Donald Trump's adjustment on stimulus measures for the economy. Earlier Trump suspended negotiations on a new program to support the American economy until the end of the presidential elections, but then announced his readiness to consider certain direct initiatives aimed at supporting the labor market, the aviation sector, and a number of other problematic areas. On Friday, investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from the UK on the dynamics of GDP and industrial production for August. The published data will later be commented on by the representative of the Bank of England Andrew Haldane. AUD/USD AUD is strengthening against USD in trading this morning session, developing an ultra-short-term uptrend and again approaching 0.7200. In addition to the improvement in market sentiment associated with the softening of Donald Trump's stance on stimulating the US economy, the instrument is supported by good macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China on Friday. Home Loans issued in Australia in August rose by 13.6% YoY after increasing by 10.7% YoY last month. Investment Lending for Homes also increased markedly by 9.3% YoY in the same period after increasing by 3.5% YoY in the previous month. The Chinese data was encouraging by further gains in the Caixin PMI. In the services sector, the September indicator rose from 54 to 54.8 points, which turned out to be much better than the forecasts for a decrease to 50.7 points. USD/JPY USD is falling against JPY during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs since September 14, updated last Wednesday. The emergence of negative dynamics for the instrument is due to technical factors, as well as a restrained increase in optimism in the market after new statements by Donald Trump regarding certain measures to support households and companies. JPY is also slightly supported by today's macroeconomic data from Japan. Labor Cash Earnings in August fell by 1.3% YoY instead of the expected decline by 1.5% YoY. Overall Household Spending in Japan also slightly improved in August: from –7.6% YoY to –6.9% YoY, which coincided with the estimates. XAU/USD Gold prices are significantly strengthening during today's Asian session, responding to corrective sentiment for USD, which is declining amid hopes for partial support of the American economy. Donald Trump urged to support airlines, which are preparing mass layoffs of employees due to the crisis. Direct assistance is also possible for individual small businesses that have found themselves in a difficult situation. Macroeconomic statistics from the US released on Thursday also exerted some pressure on USD. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 2 declined from 849K to 840K, which was worse than projected decline to 820K. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 USD/JPY: USD remains under pressure Current trend USD is actively declining against JPY during today's Asian trading session, developing last Friday's "bearish" signal, which was formed against the backdrop of a sharp rise in risk demand. Traders reacted to renewed talks on a new stimulus package for the American economy, despite Donald Trump's decision to suspend them last week until the presidential election in November. The Japanese macroeconomic statistics released today had an ambiguous impact on the instrument dynamics. Bank Lending in September slowed down from +6.7% YoY to +6.4% YoY with the forecast of growth to +7.5% YoY. Machinery Orders in August sharply slowed down from +6.3% MoM to +0.2% MoM, which, however, turned out to be better than the expected –1.0% MoM. Support and resistance On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands are sharply reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing from below, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is going down having formed new sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic demonstrates a more confident decline and is currently located approximately in the center of its area, signaling the prospects for the development of an ultra-short-term downward correction. Current showings of the indicators do not contradict the further development of the downtrend in the short term. Resistance levels: 105.60, 105.79, 106.00, 106.20. Support levels: 105.43, 105.19, 105.00, 104.75. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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