MikhailLF Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 EUR/USD: general review Current trend The pair opened the week with upward correction continuing to act on the mixed November data from the US labor market. The number of nonfarm payrolls was above expectations (228K) but still reduced compared to the previous value (244K). Moreover, hourly growth of salary failed to reach the forecast levels and made up 0.2%. Generally, these data should not have an impact on the decision of the Fed’s members to increase the interest rate again during its December meeting, but it may be of importance in the long run. The last Fed’s meeting this year is scheduled for this week and will be interesting for the investors not only because of the long-awaited decision on the interest rate but also due to follow-up statements, a press conference, and inflation and economic growth outlooks. In November the market received a number of negative signals indicating possible slowdown in the tightening of the monetary policy due to insufficient inflation growth in the country. At first it was pointed out by Janet Yellen, and then after the release of the recent Fed’s minutes it turned out that the chairwoman was supported by a number of members as well. If Yellen confirms her negative view of the situation, USD may get considerably cheaper. Support and resistance Right now the price is moving to the middle line of Bollinger Bands. If it consolidates above it and the level of 1.1840 (Murrey [6/8]) growth may continue to 1.1900 (Murrey [7/8]) and 1.1962 (Murrey [8/8]). Otherwise the fall will resume to 1.1718 (Murrey [4/8]) and 1.1657 (Murrey [3/8]). Technical indicators don’t give a clear signal. Stochastic has reversed upwards, Bollinger Bands are narrowing before considerable movement, and MACD is reducing in the positive zone. Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1718, 1.1657. Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1962. Trading tips In the current situation sell positions may be opened below the level of 1.1780 with targets at 1.1718, 1.1657 and stop-loss at 1.1810. Buy positions may be opened above the level of 1.1840 with targets at 1.1900, 1.1962 and stop-loss at 1.1810. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 USD/CAD: Murray analysis Current trend Since October on the daily chart the pair is trading above the Ultimate Resistance of Murray ([8/8]) around 1.2695, but cannot break the level of 1.2940 (Murray [+2/8]) and is trading within the horizontal channel. Now the price is trying to reverse into fall to the lover border of the range 1.2695. However, it needs to consolidate below the level of 1.2817 (Murray [+1/8]), as the price is set near it. Stochastic confirms the possibility of the decrease, entering the overbought zone, which reflects the perspective of a reversal. In addition, the price is near the temporal border, where the direction of the movement usually changes. If the price cannot break the level of 1.2817, it can grow to the levels of 1.2940 and 1.3000 (Murray [5/8] for H4). Support and resistance Resistance levels: 1.2940 ([+2/8]), 1.3000 ([5/8] for H4). Support levels: 1.2817 ([+1/8]), 1.2695 ([8/8]), 1.2573 ([7/8]). Trading tips Short positions can be opened at the level 1.2817 with the target at 1.2695 and stop loss at around 1.2860. Long positions can be opened at the level of 1.2880 with the targets at 1.2940 and 1.3000 and stop loss at 1.2840. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Brent Crude Oil: oil tries to reclaim positions Current trend On Tuesday, the Brent price underwent significant fluctuations. First, it reached two-year highs, outpacing the mark of $65.00 per barrel, but then adjusted to the area of 62.60. The growth of quotes was caused by reports on the suspension of the operation of the largest North Sea pipeline, Forties Pipeline System, which transported 40% of region’s oil from 85 fields. However, the enthusiasm of investors quickly dried up, giving way to fears that the physical restriction of the supply of the North Sea blend could lead to its ousting from the Asian markets by other types of oil from the Middle East. At the moment oil prices are making a new attempt at growth, taking advantage of a significant reduction in commercial oil reserves in the United States. According to the API, it amounted to 7.382 million barrels. In addition, prices were supported by OPEC chairman Mohamed Barkindo, who said that the surplus of world oil reserves fell to 130 million barrels, while last month it was 154 million barrels. This fact indicates the gradual return of the oil market to stability. Probably, these data will be reflected in OPEC's monthly report on the oil market that is coming out today. Also we should note the evening release of data on oil reserves in the US from the EIA, which are also expected to show reduction (by 3.78 million barrels). Finally, one can not discount the factor of the Fed meeting. Support and resistance Technically, the price is in the region of the upper boundary of the Murrey channel ([5/8]) at 63.28, further price growth is hampered by the middle Bollinger Bands’ line. The potential for further recovery of quotes to the levels of 64.05 (Murrey [6/8]) and 65.84 (Murrey [7/8]) is available, as turned up Stochastic shows. However, fixing the price below the 63.28 mark will give the prospect of resuming the decline to 62.50 (Murrey [4/8]), 61.72 (Murrey [3/8]), and 60.93 (Murrey [2/8]). Support levels: 63.28, 62.50, 61.72, 60.93. Resistance levels: 64.05, 64.84, 65.62. Trading tips In the current situation, short positions may be opened below the level of 63.28 with targets at 62.50, 61.72 and stop-loss at 63.60. Long positions should be opened from the level of 63.70, with targets at 64.00, 64.84 and stop-loss at 63.30. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 LiteForex: XAU/USD: Fibonacci analysis Current trend On the 4-hour chart the price is growing after the reversal around 1240.00. Now the “bullish” targets are the level of 1260.05 (correction 38.2%) and 1267.50 (correction 50.0%), approximately coinciding with the lower border of the sideways channel for D1 chart and being a key level for the further growth. If the price is set below the level of 1250.90 (correction 23.6%, the price can return to 6 months lows at the area of 1240.00. On the daily chart the price оrebounded from the correction cluster 1242.00 (50.0% for W1, 76.4% for D1) and is now trying to grow through the upward upcoming fan. Key “bullish” level is the correction cluster around 1265.00 (38.2% for W1 and 61.8% for D1) and the middle line of Bollinger Bands behind it. After the breakout of the levels the price can return to the long term horizontal channel and can grow to the levels of 1279.50 (correction 50.0%) and 1297.00 (correction cluster 23.6% for W1 and 38.2% for D1). However, the possibility of the reversal of the price 1265.00, which is the strong “mirror” resistance and return of the price to the area of 1242.00 is high. Main scenario Short positions can be opened below the level of 1250.00 or after the rebound at the level of 1265.00 with the target at 1242.00 and stop loss 1256.00 and 1268.00. Alternative scenario Long positions can be opened above the level of 1267.50 with the targets at 1279.50, 1297.00 and stop loss around 1264.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 LiteForex: EUR/USD: the pair remains in the downward channel Current trend The European currency against USD dollar remains in the side consolidation stage in the long term despite its wide channel. Euro had been consolidating against USD until the end of November due to the fall of demand for the US currency. However, dollar was strengthened by positive data on the main sectors of the US economy, namely strong December releases on the labor market, inflation, key indexes, and industrial output. Right now the pair is trading in the wide downward channel. Today it received support from positive data on key Eurozone indexes. The upward impulse is likely to remain today due to the absence of key released from the USA. A set of data is expected from Germany on Tuesday and Wednesday and may give the pair dynamics. The main macroeconomic releases for the USA (final GDP and labor market data) are due at the end of the week. Support and resistance The downward trend is likely to remain until the end of the year in view of growing demand for USD after the Fed’s decision to increase the interest rate and in view of positive fundamental background. The pair may gradually go down to 1.1600, but before that it should break through the strong support level of 1.1690. Technically, the pair remain in the medium term downward channel increasing pressure on the European currency. Indicators fail to show direction: MACD in the D1 chart is near the zero mark, and Bollinger Bands have reversed horizontally. Therefore, an alternative scenario will be the consolidation of the pair within the wide side channel. Support levels: 1.1730, 1.1715, 1.1690, 1.1665, 1.1600, 1.1575, 1.1530, 1.1500, 1.1470. Resistance levels: 1.1785, 1.1800, 1.1830, 1.1860, 1.1900, 1.1925, 1.1980, 1.2030. Trading tips Short positions may be opened from the current level with target at 1.1600 and stop-loss at 1.1870. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: Murrey analysis Current trend In the H4 chart the price has been trading within the range of 63.28 ([5/8])-62.50 ([4/8]) for the third session in a row. The key level for the “bulls” seems to be 63.28. In case of its breakthrough growth may continue to 64.06 ([6/8]) and 64.84 ([7/8]). However, the drivers on the week before Christmas may be insufficient, and it will remain within the said trading range. Generally, technical indicators show the possibility of growth: Bollinger Bands start to rise, and Stochastic is also directed upwards. One may speak about considerable reduction to 61.72 ([3/8]) and 60.93 ([2/8]) only after the price consolidates below 62.50 ([4/8]) which seems unlikely in the short term. Support and resistance Support levels: 62.50 ([4/8], central line of Murrey range), 61.72 ([3/8], bottom of the channel), 60.93 ([2/8]) Resistance levels: 63.28 ([5/8], top of the channel), 64.06 ([6/8]), 64.84 ([7/8]). Trading tips In this situation buy positions should be opened if the price consolidates above 63.28 with targets at 64.06, 64.84 and stop-loss at 63.00. Short positions should be opened if the price moves away from 63.28 with targets at 62.50, 61.72 and stop-loss at 63.45. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 LiteForex: NZD/USD: correction may continue Current trend This week the pair is showing stable reduction and by now it has reached the level of 0.6958 (Murrey [2/8]). US dollar received support from the news on the tax reform that is about to be approved by the Congress. Today is the day of the last vote, after which the bill will be sent to President Trump for signing. On the other hand, NZD is under considerable pressure of fundamental data. The index of prices for dairy products by Global Dairy Trade yesterday reduced to 3.9% which is the biggest fall since 2016. The trading balance of New Zealand was also weak. In November its deficiency exceeded forecasts and made up 1,193 mln. In the evening statistics on New Zealand GDP for Q3 2017 will be released. The indicator is expected to drop from 0.8% to 0.5% due to a long period of dry weather that caused the reduction in the volumes of production of agricultural products including the main export product – milk. Support and resistance Currently the pair is trading around the level of 0.6958 (Murrey [2/8]) and in case of its breakdown may drop to 0.6897 (Murrey [1/8]) and 0.6835 (Murrey [0/8]). One may speak about the growth of the price to 0.7080 (Murrey [4/8]) and 0.7140 (Murrey [5/8]) only after it consolidates above 0.7020 (Murrey [3/8]). Bollinger Bands are reversing upwards, confirming the formation of the upward trend. However, Stochastic points downwards indicating the possibility of downward correction. Support levels: 0.6958, 0.6897, 0.6835. Resistance levels: 0.7020, 0.7080, 0.7140. Trading tips In this situation sell positions may be opened if the price consolidates below 0.6958 with targets at 0.6897, 0.6835 and stop-loss at 0.6990. Buy positions should be opened above 0.7020 with target at 0.7080, 0.7140 and stop-loss at 0.6990. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 LiteForex:EUR/USD: the tax reform failed to strengthen USD Current trend On Wednesday US Congress finally approves the draft of the tax reform that provides for the reduction of the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. However, the US currency reacted to this fact only by slowing down its fall, as the decision was expected and included into the price. However, the reduction of the tax burden on business may have long-term consequences for the US economy. First of all, the authors of the reform expect corporate income to increase, new workplaces to be creates, and salaries to rise. Another purpose of the reform is the repatriation of capitals into the USA. Trying to avoid taxes, major companies keep about $2 trln on foreign accounts. The law offers them a special deal: capitals may be repatriated one time at the rate of only 15.5%. However, the US economy will be able to feel the positive effect of the reform only in several years, while the budget deficiency will be evident at once. According to Bloomberg, it will take about $1-1.5 trln to implement the project. The US currency may start strengthening in case of release of strong final data on the US GDP. According to forecasts, in Q3 2017 the growth of the indicator may make up 3.3% which is the biggest increase since Q3 2016. Support and resistance Currently the price is around 1.1900 (Murrey [7/8]). In case this level is broken out growth may continue to 1.1962 (Murrey [8/8]) and 1.2024 (Murrey [+1/8]). Stochastic is approaching the overbought area which creates the possibility of correction, but one may speak about it only when the price consolidates below 1.1840 (Murrey [6/8]). In this case the price may drop to 1.1780 (Murrey [5/8]) and 1.1718 (Murrey [4/8]). Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1718, 1.1657. Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1962. Trading tips In the current situation buy positions may be opened above 1.1900 with targets at 1.1962, 1.2024 and stop-loss at 1.1870. Sell positions should be opened below 1.1840 with targets at 1.1780, 1.1718 and srop-loss at 1.1890. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general review Current trend Oil prices opened the week with a slight correction, but as a whole remain within the uptrend. Prices are supported by the optimism of Iraqi energy minister Jabbar Al-Luaibi, who said on Monday that the balance in the oil market can be reached in the first quarter of next year, and prices will grow due to the increase in demand from India and China. Market participants are also encouraged by the data of Baker Hughes, according to which the number of drilling rigs in the US does not increase for the second week in a row and now stands at 747 units. It should be noted that the number of drilling rigs peaked in August (768 units) and since then has fluctuated around 730-750. This may mean that investors no longer commit in the development of production capacities and are preparing to make profit from existing ones. We should also note that in the short term, the easing of oil prices could be affected by the commissioning of the Fortis pipeline stopped in mid-December due to a fracture. Currently, it is tested it with high pressure. Support and resistance Currently, the price is trying to begin correction, but its development to the level of 63.28 (Murrey [1/8]), 62.50 (Murrey [0/8]) will become possible when fixing the price below 64.06 (Murrey [2/8], middle line Bollinger Bands). Otherwise, the price may enter the Murrey channel and reach 65.62 (Murrey [4/8]) and 66.40 (Murrey [5/8]). Technical indicators do not provide a clear signal. Bollinger Bands pointing up, confirming the uptrend, Stochastic tries to turn around at the overbought zone. Support levels: 64.06, 63.28, 62.50. Resistance levels: 64.84, 65.62, 66.40. Trading tips Under current conditions, it is possible to sell below 64.06 with targets 63.28, 62.50 and stop-loss at 64.40. Buying is worth above 64.84 with targets 65.62, 66.40 and protective order 64.50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 LiteForex: AUD/USD: Fibonacci analysis On the 4-hour chart the price has been growing for the third week and it has reached the level of 0.7770. In case of reversal of the price, the downward correction to the level of 0.7705 (correction 23.6%, the middle line of Bollinger Bands) is possible. If the price is set above the level of 0.7770, the further growth is possible, but its potential seems restricted, as Stochastic is in the overbought area and can form a sell signal in the nearest future. On the daily chart the price is tending to the corrections cluster at the area of 0.7780 (50.0% and 38.2%); in addition, in this area the downward correctional fan line 38.2% goes. All the facts, supported by Stochastic, which has entered the overbought area, shows the possibility of the fall to the levels of 0.7700 (correction 50.0%) and 0.7615 (correction 61.8%, the middle line of Bollinger Bands). If the price is set above the level of 0.7780 the further growth to the levels of 0.7845 (correction 61.8%) and 0.7885 (correction 23.6%) is possible, but the price should break through the downward fan. Trading tips Short positions can be opened at the level of 0.7780 with the targets at 0.7700, 0.7615 and stop loss at 0.7820. Alternative scenario Long positions can be opened at the level of 0.7800 with the targets at 0.7845, 0.7885 and stop loss around 0.7870. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 LiteForex: AUD/USD: Fibonacci analysis On the 4-hour chart the price has been growing for the third week and it has reached the level of 0.7770. In case of reversal of the price, the downward correction to the level of 0.7705 (correction 23.6%, the middle line of Bollinger Bands) is possible. If the price is set above the level of 0.7770, the further growth is possible, but its potential seems restricted, as Stochastic is in the overbought area and can form a sell signal in the nearest future. On the daily chart the price is tending to the corrections cluster at the area of 0.7780 (50.0% and 38.2%); in addition, in this area the downward correctional fan line 38.2% goes. All the facts, supported by Stochastic, which has entered the overbought area, shows the possibility of the fall to the levels of 0.7700 (correction 50.0%) and 0.7615 (correction 61.8%, the middle line of Bollinger Bands). If the price is set above the level of 0.7780 the further growth to the levels of 0.7845 (correction 61.8%) and 0.7885 (correction 23.6%) is possible, but the price should break through the downward fan. Trading tips Short positions can be opened at the level of 0.7780 with the targets at 0.7700, 0.7615 and stop loss at 0.7820. Alternative scenario Long positions can be opened at the level of 0.7800 with the targets at 0.7845, 0.7885 and stop loss around 0.7870. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 LiteForex: USD/JPY: general review Current trend US dollar continues to reduce against the majors due to low trading volumes. Market players are cautious waiting for the release of the minuted of the Fed’s December meeting. No important macroeconomic releases are expected from Japan until the end of the week. At the same time, US currency is under pressure from central banks of other countries, as the growth of the global economy in 2017 catalyzes the tightening of the monetary policy in a number of key states leading to the reduction of differences between the rates. The main event of today is the release of the minutes of December Fed’s meeting. Investors hope to receive new data on further rates of the US fiscal policy. Moreover, market volatility may be caused by simultaneous release of gradual inflation build-up index and industrial PMI, as well as the data on construction expenses in the USA. The pair is extremely sensitive to inflation indicators, as its low level in the USA prevents the Fed from implementing its monetary policy plans. Support and resistance On the H4 chart the instrument has been corrected to 112.25. A strong support level is 112.00. Breaking through it will be a strong signal for the opening of short positions. Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, and the price range has slightly reduced. A key resistance level is 112.40. MACD histogram has reached its minimal level in the negative zone, and the strong sell signal is still valid. Stochastic fails to give a clear signal for entering the market. Support levels: 111.60, 111.80, 112.00, 112.25. Resistance levels: 112.40, 112.60, 112.80, 113.15, 113.35. Trading tips Short positions may be opened below the level of 112.25 with targets at 111.80, 111.60 and stop-loss at 112.50. The period of implementation is 1-2 days. Long positions may be opened from the level of 112.45 with targets at 112.85 and stop-loss at 112.25. The period of implementation is 1 day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general analysis Current trend Oil prices are growing. Yesterday Brent went up by 2.40% and reached the level of 67.96, which is last 3-years maximum. The instrument is supported by preliminary API Crude Oil Stocks change data, which reflect the decrease of the resources by 4.992 million barrel in a week. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change release is due at 17:30 (GMT+2) today. If the data confirms the decrease, Brent will be significantly supported. The growth of the prices is supported by tense situation in Iran, where anti-Government protests are expressed all over the country. Support and resistance Technical indicators reflect the maintenance of the upward trend, but the technical correction possibility is not excluded. Bollinger Bands are pointed upwards. MACD volumes are growing in the positive zone, forming a buy signal. Stochastic is in the overbought zone, which can reflect the reversal of the price. The instrument is now testing the level of 67.96 (Murray [7/8]). If it cannot consolidate above this level, the correction to the levels of 67.18 (Murray [6/8]), 66.76 (the middle line of Bollinger Bands) is possible. The breakout of the level 67.96 will let the price grow to the level of 68.75 (Murray [8/8]). Resistance levels: 67.96, 68.75. Support levels: 67.18, 66.40, 65.62. Trading tips Long positions can be opened above the level of 67.96 with the target at around 68.75 and stop loss 67.75. Short positions can be opened below the level of 67.18 with the targets at around 66.40–65.62 and stop loss 67.40. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 LiteForex: GBP/USD: the pound is pressured by permutations in the British government Current trend Last week, the pair tested 1.3600 mark, but today it adjusted to the level of 1.3550 (Murrey [7/8]). The uncertainty of the market is caused by the expectation of the reshuffle in the government of Theresa May, which is to be held on Monday and Tuesday. However, it is expected that the reshuffle will not affect key cabinet ministers, such as David Davis, Philip Hammond, and Boris Johnson. Perhaps the First Secretary of State, the actual deputy prime minister, will be the current health minister Jeremy Hunt, a consistent supporter of Brexit. Earlier this position was occupied by Damian Green, but in December he was forced to resign because of a sexual scandal that shook the domestic political position of Theresa May. The current reshuffle should restore stability to the British government before the next round of Brexit talks. Support and resistance Technically, the price dropped below the 1.3550 mark (Murrey [7/8]) and may continue to decline to the level of 1.3427 (Murrey [6/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands) and 1.3305 (Murrey [5/8]). Technical indicators generally allow the possibility of a downward correction. Stochastic is pointing downwards. MACD histogram and price chart demonstrate slight diversion. One may speak about resuming growth after the price consolidates below the level of 1.3600. In this case, the growth can be continued to the levels of 1.3670 (Murrey [8/8]) and 1.3795 (Murrey [+1/8]). Support levels: 1.3427, 1.3305, 1.3215. Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3600, 1.3670, 1.3795. Trading tips Short positions may be opened from the level of 1.3510 with targets at 1.3427, 1.3305 and stop-loss at 1.3560. If the price consolidates above 1.3600, long positions could be opened with targets at 1.3670, 1.3795 and stop-loss at 1.3570. Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 LiteForex: WTI Crude Oil: Murray analysis On the 4-hour chart, the price has grown to the area of the upper border of the Murray trading range 62.50 ([8/8]), but has not tested it and was corrected to 61.72 ([7/8]). The consolidation of the price below this the level and the middle line of Bollinger Bands can lead to the development of the downward correction to the levels of 60.94 ([6/8]) and 60.15 ([5/8]). Stochastic confirms it, reversing downwards near the overbought area. On the other hand, as MACD in the positive zone and Bollinger Bands and MA are growing, the upward trend, within the correction can develop, maintains. The price can grow to the levels of 63.28 ([+1/8]) and 64.00 ([+2/8]) after the consolidation above the level of 62.50. Support and resistance Resistance levels: 62.50 ([8/8]), 63.28 ([+1/8]), 64.00 ([+2/8]). Support levels: 61.72 ([7/8]), 60.94 (6/8]), 60.15 ([5/8]), 59.37 ([4/8]). Trading tips Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 61.72 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands with the targets at 60.94, 60.15 and stop loss at around 61.85. Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 62.50 with the targets at 63.28, 64.00 and stop loss at around 62.10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 LiteForex: AUD/USD: Fibonacci analysis On the 4-hour chart, the price is around highs since last October around 0.7870. The consolidation above it can let the price grow further. Otherwise, the correction to the level 0.7785 (correction 23.6%, upward fan line 38.2%) is possible. Indicators’ readings are controversial, Stochastic is pointed upwards, MACD entered the negative zone, which can reflect the formation of the downward trend. On the daily chart, the price is around the level of 0.7845 (correction 61.8%), which seems to be key. The consolidation of the price above it can let it grow to the area of 0.7925–0.7965 (correction 76.4%, upcoming downward fan). Otherwise, the fall to the levels of 0.7780 (correction 50.0%) and 0.7715 (correction 38.2%) is possible. Technical indicators allow the downward correction, Stochastic has left the overbought area and has formed a sell signal, MACD histogram has begun to fall in the positive zone. Main scenario Short positions can be opened at the level of 0.7830 with the targets at 0.7780, 0.7715 and stop loss at 0.7860. Alternative scenario Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 0.7870 with the targets at 0.7925, 0.7965 and stop loss around 0.7840. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 LiteForex: WTI Crude Oil: general analysis Current trend Today WTI oil prices reached the level of 63.77 due to the coincidence of short-termed positive factors. EIA and API Crude Oil Stocks change releases reflected the eighth in a row decrease of resources in the USA, which has exceeded the expectations and reached 4.948 million barrel. The production decreased by 2.9% (2900K barrel) to 9.492 million barrel per day. The oil rig number went down, too: from 747 to 742. The rapid growth of oil prices in the middle term can lead to the opposite effect of a revitalization of US shale oil producers, as it is becoming more and more profitable, which can result in a significant correction of the price. According to EIA forecasts, this year US production can reach a record level of 10.3 million barrel, and in 2019 – 11 million barrel. OPEC members recognize the danger of the high oil prices: recently Iran Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh noted the disadvantages of the Brent price growth above 60 USD per barrel; still, any countermeasures are unlikely due to OPEC+ Agreement implementation. Support and resistance Technically the price is tending to the Murray resistance at to the area of 64.00 ([+2/8]) and after the breakout can grow to the levels of 65.00, 65.60. Otherwise, the correction to the levels of 62.50 (Murray [8/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 61.72 (Murray [7/8]) is possible. Technical indicators allow the growth, Stochastic is pointed upwards but is reaching the overbought area, MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone, Bollinger Bands are pointed upwards. Resistance levels: 64.00, 65.00, 65.60. Support levels: 63.28, 62.50, 61.72. Trading tips Long positions can be opened above the level of 64.00 with the targets at 65.00, 65.60 and stop loss at 63.50. Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 63.28 with the targets at 62.50, 61.72 and stop loss at 63.70. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 LiteForex: AUD/USD: waiting for the US inflation data Current trend At the beginning of the week, the pair declined under the pressure of optimistic statements by FOMC members John Williams and Loretta Meister, who spoke in favor of three or four interest rate increases in the US this year. However, on Wednesday the price reversed around the 0.7800 mark and began to rise under the influence of later reports that China plans to stop purchasing US Treasury bonds and strong data on retail sales in Australia. In November, the indicator showed significant growth, amounting to 1.2% instead of the expected 0.4%, which indicates active sales on "Black Friday". As a result, the price has risen to the level of 0.7900, has been corrected a little, and now is in the area of the level of 0.7870. Today, the market is waiting for the publication of December data on the consumer price index, one of the defining indicators in the decision to change the US interest rate. Now, a number of Fed members, including Charles Evans, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, are concerned about the low level of inflation and are supporting the rate hike before mid-2018. If realized, the forecasts (the reduction of the consumer price index from 2.2% to 2.1% and the preservation of the base level of consumer prices at around 1.7%) can strengthen the positions of the "pigeons" at the January meeting of the American regulator and exert significant pressure on the US currency. Support and resistance Technically, the price is at the lower border of the rising channel and in case of breakdown it may drop to the area of 0.7812 (Murrey [0/8]), otherwise, growth is likely to reach levels of 0.7900 (Murrey [6/8]) and 0.7935 (Murrey [8/8]). Technical indicators allow the possibility of decline, Stochastic is turned down, the MACD histogram is preparing to go into the negative zone and to form sale signal. Support levels: 0.7850, 0.7812, 0.7780. Resistance levels: 0.7900, 0.7935, 0.7965. Trading tips Short positions may be opened from the level of 0.7880 with targets at 0.7900, 0.7935 and stop-loss at 0.7860. Consolidation below the lower border of the channel near the 0.7855 mark will make short positions relevant, with the goal of 0.7812 and the stop-loss at the level of 0.7875. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 LiteForex: EUR/USD: Euro is growing Current trend Last week European currency strengthened against the dollar and by now, it has reached the level of 1.2245. Three factors have supported the growth of EUR. Firstly, China has reported the suspension of US government bonds purchase, which was not confirmed afterward. The second factor was the recent ECB meeting reports release, which contained hints of monetary tightening. The third one is the agreement between CDU and SPD to begin the negotiations upon the creation of wide party coalition, which will help to solve German government crisis. As a result, the market did almost not reacted to the positive December US Consumer Price release. The MoM index grew from 0.1% to 0.3%, the YoY one– from 1.7% to 1.8% due to the growth of housing prices. The data give the investors hope if increasing the interest rate during March FRS meeting, despite the fact that inflation has not reached the inflation level of 2.0% yet. Meanwhile, FRS plans to abandon this target level at all. The head of Boston FRB Rosengren has proposed to determine the inflation target within the range of 1.5–3% and choose the optimal level annually. Support and resistance The price grew above the central Murray ([4/8]) level around 1.2200. The targets are 1.2330 (Murray [5/8]) and 1.2450 (Murray [6/8]). Correction to the levels of 1.2085 (Murray [3/8]) and 1.1963 (Murray [2/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) will become possible after the price is set below 1.2200. The indicators reflect the development of growth, MACD is increasing in the positive zone, and Stochastic is pointed upwards. Resistance levels: 1.2330, 1.2450, 1.2570. Support levels: 1.2200, 1.2085, 1.1963. Trading tips Long positions can be opened at the current level with the targets at 1.2330, 1.2450 and stop loss at 1.2240. Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 1.2200 with the targets at 1.2085, 1.1963 and stop loss at 1.2250. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 LiteForex: NZD/USD: pair updates its highs Current trend At the Monday trading, the New Zealand dollar showed significant growth against the US one, updating a new local maximum since September 22. The instrument was supported by the weakness of the US currency, while the markets in the US were closed on the occasion of the national holiday. Today, the pair tends to consolidate near new highs, partly due to corrective growth in favor of the US currency, as well as published macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand. Thus, the index of business confidence from NZIER in the 4th quarter of 2017 showed a sharp decline of -12% QoQ, after an increase of 5% QoQ for the previous period. Retail sales using electronic cards slipped from 1.3% MoM to 0.5% MoM in December, which, however, justified the market expectations. Support and resistance The Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range remains practically unchanged, which still limits the "bullish" potential in the short term. One should take into account the risks of a corrective decline in the short term. MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). There is an opportunity to maintain the existing long positions in the short term. It's worthwhile to postpone opening new positions now. The stochastic reversed horizontally near its maximum values, which indicates the possible development of corrective rollback in the short and/or ultra short term. Resistance levels: 0.7313, 0.7342, 0.7370. Support levels: 0.7275, 0.7242, 0.7195, 0.7135. Trading tips To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 0.7313 or 0.7342 marks, provided that technical indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bullish" trend. Take-profit at 0.7370 or 0.7400. Stop-loss – 0.7270. Implementation time: 2-3 days. The rebound from the level of 0.7313 as from resistance, with the subsequent breakdown of 0.7275-0.7250 marks, can become a signal to the beginning of correctional sales with the target of 0.7135-0.7100. Stop-loss – 0.7320. Implementation time: 2-3 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 LiteForex: USD/JPY: upward correction may occur Current trend This week, the pair continues to decline and today has reached its lowest level since last September at around 110.17. The yen is still supported by the decision of the Bank of Japan to reduce the volume of purchases of long-term government bonds (from 200 to 190 billion yen for 10-25-year-olds, and from 100 to 90 billion yen for 25-40-year-olds). Investors see this as a signal for the beginning of tightening of monetary policy by the regulator. Statements by the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda that incentive programs will be preserved until the inflation reaches the target of 2.0%, made this week, did not greatly weaken the yen. Most market participants believe that during the year the Japanese regulator will have to go on limiting incentives to prevent excessive loosening of the national currency due to the expected continuation of the Fed's interest rate increase and the possible tightening of the monetary policy by the ECB. Currently, the decline has stopped, as the market is waiting for the publication of data on industrial production in the US. Realization of forecasts - in December the index is expected to grow from 0.2% to 0.4% - may push the pair to correction. Support and resistance Currently, the price is in the area of 111.50 (Fibo correction 23.6%, Murrey [1/8]), the breakdown of which will open the prospect of further decline to the levels of 109.37 (Murrey [0/8]) and 108.60 (Murrey [-1/8]). However, the location of Stochastic in the oversold zone indicates a possible correction to the level of 111.72 (Murrey [3/8]) and 112.50 (Murrey [4/8], the middle Bollinger band line). Support levels: 110.15, 109.37, 108.60. Resistance levels: 110.93, 111.72, 112.50. Trading tips In the current situation, one can buy above the level of 110.93 with the target at 111.72 and the stop-loss at 110.50. One can sell below the level of 110.15 with the targets at 109.37, 108.60 and stop-loss at 110.60. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 LiteForex: EUR/USD: waiting for new drivers Current trend This week, the pair is trading near the 1.2200 mark and cannot get away from it yet. On Wednesday, the dollar made an attempt to strengthen in view of strong data on industrial production in the US (in December its volume rose by 0.9% significantly exceeding forecasts) and warnings of the ECB Vice-President Vítor Constâncio on the need for a cautious approach to monetary policy in order not to harm economic growth. However, these drivers were not enough for consolidation of the instrument significantly below the level of 1.2200. Currently, the EUR won back losses, taking advantage of the uncertainty associated with the expiration of the financing of the US government on January 19. The Congress will have to extend funding, but Democrats insist on reciprocal easing of legislation on illegal migrants. During the day, the weakening of the US currency may continue in case of negative data on the US construction sector. Indicators of the dynamics of construction permits and the number of new homes bookings in December could fall from 1.298 million to 1.290 million and from 1.297 million to 1.275 million, respectively. Support and resistance The technical picture is uncertain. The price chart forms a "flag" shape within the upward trend, Bollinger Bands are directed upwards, which can speak of an increase to the levels of 1.2450 (Murrey [6/8]) and 1.2573 (Murrey [7/8]). On the other hand, Stochastic is preparing to leave the overbought zone and to form a signal for sale. Correction is possible to the levels of 1.2085 (Murrey [3/8]) and 1.1962 (Murrey [2/8]). Support levels: 1.2200, 1.2085, 1.1962. Resistance levels: 1.2330, 1.2451, 1.2573. Trading tips In the current situation, one may sell after the price consolidates below the level of 1.2200 from the level of 1.2160 with targets at 1.2085, 1.1962 and stop-loss at 1.2200. Buy positions may be opened from 1.2330 mark with targets at 1.2451, 1.2573 and stop-loss at 1.2270. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 LiteForex: GBP/USD: the growth slowed Current trend This week the pair was growing, and by the end of the week it has renewed the 3-year highs around 1.3943, gained 1.6%. Today the growth slowed, as the instrument is under influence of two opposing factors. On the one hand, the dollar is under pressure of the crisis upon the federal government funding, which expires on December 19. The House of Representatives approved the prolongation law on Thursday, however, the democratic part of the Senate promises to block it. In this case, a number of government structures will suspend its work, and around 800K of the employers will have to set a vacation. On the other hand, the pound cannot grow further due to poor UK Retail Sales release. In December, the index decreased by 1.5% and Retail Sales ex-Fuel – by 1.6%. The analysts consider the fall is because the peak of buyers’ activity coincided with the November sales season. In addition, high inflation level affects the Retail Sales negatively, as it has fallen from its high of 3.1% to 3.0% only in December. The member of Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England Michael Saunders has mentioned the long-term negative influence of the high inflation to the UK economy. Support and resistance The price reached the resistance zone of 1.3915–1.3965 (Murray [6/8], Fibonacci correction 38.2%). After the rebound the growth to the levels of 1.4040 (Murray [7/8]) and 1.4160 (Murray [8/8]) is possible. However, the reversal of Stochastic in the overbought area and the possible exit of it reflects the risk of the downward correction to the levels of 1.3672 (Murray [4/8]) and 1.3550 (Murray [3/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands). Resistance levels: 1.3965, 1.4038, 1.4160. Support levels: 1.3794, 1.3672, 1.3550. Trading tips Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.3793 with the targets at 1.3672, 1.3550 and stop loss at 1.3830. Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 1.3965 with the targets at 1.4038, 1.4160 and stop loss at 1.3940. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 LiteForex: AUD/USD: Murray analysis On the daily chart, the price left the main trading Murray range and is tending to the extreme of 0.8056 ([+2/8]). The breakout here can lead to the growth to the level of 0.8178 ([7/8] W1). However, the level of 0.8056 seems to be quite strong to cause a reversal. The price has tested it unsuccessfully last September, on the weekly chart in this area lays the strong reversal level [6/8] and the upper border of Bollinger Bands. After the reversal, the fall can develop to the levels of 0.7934 ([+1/8] D1) and 0.7812 ([8/8] D1). On the daily chart technical indicators’ readings are mixed. Stochastic has left the overbought area and formed a sell signal. MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone, Bollinger Bands are pointed upwards. Generally, the growth potential maintains but seems restricted. Support and resistance Support levels: 0.7934 ([+1/8]), 0.7812 ([8/8]), 0.7690 ([7/8]). Resistance levels: 0.8056 ([+2/8]), 0.8178 ([7/8] W1). Trading tips Short positions can be opened after the reversal around of the level 0.8656 with the targets at 0.7934, 0.7812 and stop loss at around 0.8685. Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 0.8056 at the level of 0.8090 with the target at 0.8178 and stop loss at 0.8050. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 LiteForex: XAG/USD: correction is over, growth is expected Current trend The price of silver went into a narrowing consolidation after a significant growth at the end of last year. In mid-January, the instrument reached the local maximum level of 17.40, after which it consolidated below this mark in the side channel. Growth was promoted by the increased demand for metal and a significant drop in the US currency at the end of last year/beginning of this year. At the end of the last trading week, the United States published mixed data, which resulted in a reduction in US dollar sales and stabilization of the rate. Now, there are no important releases that could increase the volatility of the price of silver in the economic calendar. In the second half of the week, special attention should be paid to the US data, namely reports on the labor market, on economic growth rates in the 4th quarter of last year, and on orders for durable goods. Support and resistance The current consolidation from the strong resistance level can be regarded as a correction after significant growth. In the future, the correction will be replaced by a new upward wave, the main catalyst for further growth will be the negative fundamental background for the United States and the "bullish" trading sentiments of investors. In the medium term, the instrument is expected to rise to the next strong resistance level of 18.00 — the local high of last September. Technical indicators on the D1 chart keep the signal for an increase: MACD indicator shows a high volume of long positions, and Bollinger Bands are directed upwards. Support levels: 16.85, 16.75, 16.55, 16.10, 15.60, 15.30, 15.00, 14.10. Resistance levels: 17.10, 17.25, 17.40, 18.00, 18.20, 18.70. Trading tips In this situation, long positions may be opened from the current level with the target at 18.00 and stop-loss at 16.60. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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