LiteForex Analytics

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

Thursday was volatile for the pair EUR/USD which was caused by yesterday’s releases and the news due today, in particular changes in nonfarm payrolls.
Yesterday after slight growth during the morning trading the pair got cheaper in view of release on an ADP report on the level of employment in the private sector. The indicator that precedes the NFP report showed growth and exceeded expectations strengthening USD and giving sufficient proof that the report on nonfarm payrolls will be positive. Strong NP data in turn will indirectly support the increase of FOMC rates in June.

The growth of initial jobless claims had a negative impact on the US currency and slowed down the fall of the pair. It dropped to1.1200 but failed to break through a strong support level.
Today the market is expected to be highly volatile.

Support and resistance

On the H1 chart the pair is demonstrating lateral movement within a narrow price range formed by the borders of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is around the zero mark, and its volumes are minimal.

Support levels: 1.1200, 1.1170, 1.1120.
Resistance levels: 1.1240, 1.1265.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the level of 1.1190 with targets at 1.1120 and stop-loss at 1.1220.
Long positions may be opened from 1.1240 with targets at 1.1290 and top-loss at 1.1210.
The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

 

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend
The Canadian dollar fell last week against the US dollar, despite the fact that the data on Canadian GDP came out much better than expected. Nevertheless, the significant fall in oil prices, which reached a three-week low last week, and the strengthening of the US dollar up until Friday weakened the Canadian currency; and the pair USD/CAD was growing.

However, the trend line zone (blue) close to the resistance area of 1.3550 once again showed its strength, and the pair was corrected downwards. The correction of the pair also had a fundamental reason – the Friday data of the US labor market, which turned out to be worse than the forecast.

At the beginning of this week important indicators are going to be released: productivity level in the non-agricultural sector of the USA (14:30 GMT+2), it is expected to grow by 0.4%; the index of business activity and the index of activity in the US services sector (15:45 GMT+2); the index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector (PMI) of the US at 16:00 (GMT+2) (the forecast promises a decrease in the index by 0.5 points). Tomorrow, at 16:00 (GMT+2), the index of business activity in Canada will be published.

We can hardly expect a rapid return of investor confidence after their disappointment with the US dollar on Friday, therefore, for the next two days we expect the consolidation of the pair.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 1.3450, 1.3400, 1.3315, 1.3260.
Resistance levels: 1.3535, 1.3600, 1.3700, 1.3790.

Trading scenario
Short positions should be opened at the market price with the targets of 1.3400, 1.3315 and stop-loss at 1.3540.
An alternative scenario would be to buy at 1.3535 with targets of 1.3600, 1.3700 and stop-loss at 1.3470.
Implementation time: 1-2 days.

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[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: weak US stats push the pair up

Current trend
The pair is growing for the fourth week and by now has reached a maximum value in the region of 0.7170. The US currency was seriously weakened by recent negative statistics: the number of new jobs fell to 138 thousand. On Monday, unconvincing data showed the US business activity index in the non-industrial sector, which in March was worse than forecasted and amounted to 56.9 points. The deterioration of US statistics may slow the rate hike. On the other hand, the general support for New Zealand currency is provided by the milk prices: according to the Global Dairy Trade auction, a stable growth of over 3% has been observed for 6 weeks. In addition, the corporate news strengthen “kiwi”: one of the largest dairy producers in Australia Murray Goulburn was forced to close part of the production and cut 360 jobs, which plays into the hands of the New Zealand company Fonterra, which holds about 30% of world exports of dairy products and providing significant income to the budget of New Zealand.

Support and resistance
In technical terms, the price is testing the 0.7170 level (Fibonacci correction of 23.6%) and, in case of break through it can continue to rise to the levels of 0.7250, 0.7320, 0.7375 (annual highs). On the other hand, Stochastic's entry into the overbought zone indicates a possible downward correction to the mid-range of the Bollinger bands and Fibo’s 38.2% – to the 0.7000 level.

Support levels: 0.7000, 0.6875, 0.6800.
Resistance levels: 0.7170, 0.7250, 0.7320, 0.7375.

Trading tips
In this situation, long positions can be opened above the level of 0.7170 with targets of 0.7250 and 0.7320 and stop-loss order at 0.7140. With the rebound of the price from the level of 0.7170, short positions with the target of 0.7000 and stop-loss order 0.7170 will become relevant.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

 

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

Due to the empty macroecnomic calendar market participants continued to act based on the negative labor market statistics and to sell the US currency. As a result the pair EUR/USD rose to the resistance level of 1.1284. After multiple tests of this level trading moved to the side channel. The traders are waiting for the ECB fiscal policy meeting and the results of parliamentary election in the UK and do not open major positions. If ECB increases its economic forecatrs, the rate of EUR/USD will continue to increase. If the rhetorics of the European regulator appears to be mild, one may expect the rate of EUR/USD to decrease.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators confirm the lateral tendency: Bollinger Bands are directed sidewards; MACD histogram is in the positive zone and moving alon the zero line.
Support levels: 1.1232, 1.1180, 1.1135.
Resistance levels: 1.1284, 1.1324, 1.1381.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened below 1.1232 with targets at 1.1180, 1.1135 at stop-loss at 1.1265.
Buy positions may be opened above 1.1284 with targets at 1.1324, 1.1381 and stop-loss at 1.1254.

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[LiteForexTeam]

YM: general review

Current trend

Dow Jones continues to trade near historical maximums: 21223.2 or 8/8 Murrey. Breaking through and consolidation above this level will open it the way to 21250.4. In the near future a vote on the Financial Choice Act project may take place. The purpose of the project is to reduce the level of regulation of the US baning system and reserve requirements for commercial banks. If the project is passed, the market may experience excessive liquidity which in the end may positively influence the stock market.

The second event that may impact stock markets all over the world is the UK parliamentary election. According to the initial data, the majority of places in the Parliament is to be taken by the Conservative Party under the leadership of Theresa May. However due to terrorist attacks the gap between them and other parties (namely the Labor Party) is narrowing.
Initial and secondary jobless claims are also to be publised in the USA. A slight drop by approximately 8 thousand is expected.

Support and resistance

Stochastic is reaching the level of 80 points or the overbought zone and signals about possible correction. Short positions may be opened only in case the lower support level of 7/8 Murrey or 21094.1 is broken through.
Support levels: 21094.1.
Resistance levels: 21223.2.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the level of 21094.1 with targets at 20937.8 and stop-loss at 21223.2.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

 

[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

The pound fell by over 200 points against US dollar in view of release of exit polls data. According to them, the possibility that the Concervative Party may lose its absolute majority in the Parliament remained. Prime Minister Theresa May called for an early election hoping to get far bigger advantage, and the results of the election were truly shocking. Thus, according to recent BBC data, the conservatives are expected to get 318 places out of 650, and the Labor Party is to receive 267 places. The Brexit process becomes even more uncertain now which will add risks for the pound in the short and medium term.

The main item of the agenda today is the results of the UK election. After the release of the official data the market is expected to become volatile.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.2700.
Resistance levels: 1.2750, 1.2780, 1.2800, 1.2850.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the level of 1.2670 with target at 1.2600 and stop-loss at 1.2700.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.2780 with target at 1.2850 and stop-loss at 1.2750.
The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

 

[LiteForexTeam]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend
Last week the pair tested the level of  1.1440 but is still unable to consolidate above it.
On Friday the market showed a generally positive reaction to the June data on the US labor market (the number of workplaces increased by 222K), although the unemployment rate grew by 4.4%, and the annual hourly salary remained on the level of 2.5%. Based on this data, the price corrected once again, but it is still unclear whether the fall will be serious. This will to a great extent depend on the speech by FOMC head Janet Yellen in the Congress with a report on the fiscal policy for six months. On Wednesday she will present the report to the Financial Services Committee of the House of Representatives, and on Thursday – to the Banking and Construction Committee of the US Senate. The market will wait for details on further monetary policy, terms, and volumes of reduction of FOMC balance, as well as the number of interest rate increases this year.

Support and resistance
Technically the key level for the “bulls” remains  1.1440. Its breakout will give open the way of growing to 1.1530 and 1.1600. Serious correction to the levels of 1.1190 (Fibo correction 23.6%), 1.1100 (crossing with Fibo fan at 38.2%) and 1.1040 (Fibo correction 38.2%) will be possible after the price consolidates below 1.1300 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands. Technical indicators don't give a clear picture. Stochastic is directed upwards, but MACD histogram is calm in the positive zone. Moreover, the histogram and the chart have differences indicating possible future decrease of the price.
Support levels: 1.1310, 1.1100, 1.1040.
Resistance levels: 1.1440, 1.1530, 1.1600.

Trading tips
In this situation long positions may be opened if the price consolidates above 1.1440 with targets at  1.1530 and 1.1600 and stop-loss at 1.1400.
If the price consolidates below 1.1300 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands, short positions may be opened with targets at  1.1190 and 1.1100 and stop-loss at 1.1330.

 

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend
Brent oil continues to trade in the wide downward channel. The price broke through the moving average line of Bollinger Bands and is moving to June minimums at 44.80.
The market is still negative and does not believe that the balance of supply and demand will be restored soon taking into account growing oil production in the USA. Yesterday's statements by the head of OPEC Mohammed Barkindo about the reduction of oil production by over 106% by cartel members kept the price around the middle line of Bollinger Bands (47.00), but today the price started to fall again. In the evening investors are waiting for the API report on the US oil reserves. The growth of the indicator may slow down the fall of the prices.

Support and resistance
Technically the price is trying to move from the middle line of Bollinger Bands to June minimums (44.80) and further to the lower border of the channel (42.70). In case the middle line of Bollinger Bands is broken out and the price consolidates above 47.60 (Fibo correction 23.6% for the medium term trend), upward correction to the levels of 49.35 (correction 38.2%, upper line of Bollinger Bands) and 50.60 (gathering of corrections 23.6% and 50.0%) may be expected. Technical indicators don't provide a clear signal. Stochastic is trying to reverse near the oversold zone, and MACD histogram is growing in the negative zone.
Support levels: 46.00, 44.80, 42.70.
Resistance levels: 47.60, 49.35, 50.60.

Trading tips
In the current situation short positions may be opened below 46.00 with targets at 44.80, 42.70 and stop-loss at 46.50.
In case the price reverses and breaks out the level of 47.60, long positions may be opened with targets at 49.35, 50.60 and stop-loss at 47.20.

 

[LiteForexTeam]

WTI Crude Oil: general review

Current trend
WTI quotes are growing after the release of initial data from API indicating that more considerable reduction of US oil reserves as expected. According to the report, during the week they reduced by 8.13 mln barrels. This helped WTI gain 2.75% and increase to the level of 46.00.
Official data from the US Department of Energy on weekly changes in commercial oil reserves are due today at 16:30 (GMT+2). If they indicate higher reduction of reserves and oil production in the USA, WTI will gain considerable support. If oil reserves reduce but the level of production remains unchanged or increases, WTI will get under pressure once again. Investors are waiting for an effect from OPEC+ agreement of the reduction of oil production, and any news about its increase in this situation may lead to the fall of oil quotes.

Support and resistance
Technical indicators show that WTI growth potential is preserved. Bollinger Bands diverge confirming the upward trend. The volumes of MACD histogram are actively growing in the positive zone. Growth may continue after the resistance level of 46.11 is broken through. If the buyers manage to consolidate above it, growth will continue to 46.85. If not, one may expect downward correction to the middle line of Bollinger Bands (44.80).
Support levels: 45.51, 44.53, 43.75.
Resistance levels: 46.11, 46.85, 47.80.

Trading tips
Buy positions may be opened above 46.11 with targets at 46.85 and stop-loss at 45.85. In case the price breaks out and consolidates above 46.85, the next target of the buyers will be 47.80.
Sell positions may be opened below 45.51 with targets at 44.53 and stop-loss at 45.80.

 

[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: general review

Current trend

The key event of the previous day was the speech of Janet Yellen before the US Congress. The head of FOMC pointed out positive tendencies in the US economy and stated the regulator was planning to increase interest rates before the end of the year. Yellen's comments did not lead to considerable strengthening of USD, but the pair of NZD/USD dropped without consolidating above the resistance level of 0.7350 that it has been trying to break out for two years.

Today New Zealand published the data on industrial PMI. The fall of the value from 58.5 to 56.2 basis points and the comments by the head of FOMC may lead to the reversal of the instrument today.

Friday is rich in macroeconomic data from the USA. Statistics is expected to be positive for the US currency and this will put considerable pressure on the pair.
Support and resistance

On the D1 chart the instrument moved from the resistance level of 0.7330. Bollinger Bands have corrected sideward, while the price range has slightly broadened indicating the continuation of the current trend. MACD histogram is in thee positive zone maintaining a weak buy signal. Stochastic is approaching the oversold zone.

Support levels: 0.7285, 0.7250, 0.7210, 0.7170.
Resistance levels: 0.7330, 0.7370, 0.7400.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened at the current price with targets at 0.7275, 0.7250 and stop-loss at 0.7340. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 0.7345 with target at 0.7395 and stop-loss at 0.7320. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

 

[LiteForexTeam]

Forex Analytics by LiteForex. EUR/USD: Fibonacci analysis

On the H4 chart the price failed to consolidate below the level of 1.1400 (correction 23.6%) but may resume attempts in the near future. Breaking through the level of 1.1400 near the crossing with the line of the upper fan at 38.2% and the 23.6% curve may lead to further correction to the level of 1.1345 (correction 23.6%, middle line of Bollinger Bands for D1). An important level for the "bulls" is 1.1487. After consolidating above it, the pair may enter long-term growth.

On the D1 chart the price remains within the upper trend and is testing the level of 1.1470. After breaking through it, the pair may continue growing to 1.1540 and 1.1600. Otherwise it may fall to the levels of 1.1340 (middle line of Bollinger Bands and correction 38.2% for H4) and 1.1255 (correction 23.6%). Gradual growth may continue as Stochastic is trying to reverse upwards.

Main scenario

Buy positions look more preferable, but they should be opened after the price consolidates above 1.1470 with targets at 1.1540 and 1.1600. Stop-loss should be placed at 1.1420.

Alternative scenario

Sell positions may become relevant after the price consolidates below 1.1400 with targets at 1.1340, 1.1255 and stop-loss at 1.1450.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/


 

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: the pair has reached its limit

Current trend

In the second half of July the rate of the Australian currency against USD rapidly grew. Within several days the pair gained over 350 points having broken through a number of key resistance levels. The pair has been moving upwards almost without downward corrections which shows considerable growth in the volumes of long positions. The main catalyst of this movement was yet another negative data from the USA, FOMC comments on possible postponing of monetary policy tightening, beneficial fundamental background from Australia, and stability of RBA monetary policy.

Last week weak labor market, inflation, and retail sales releases were published in the USA. Australia responded with strong data on consumer confidence index and consumer expectations. Positive prospects and current indicators included into the RBA minutes give AUD additional support.

Support and resistance

Today the pair tested a new local maximum and a key resistance level of 0.7945 and consolidated below this point. Later on the pair is likely to move from rapid growth stage to the consolidation stage. Historical data shows that the pair is widely trading in the side range. In this situation side channel may be limited by key support and resistance levels at 0.7800 and 0.7945 respectively. In the medium term the pair may reach the level of 0.8000, but this will be followed by deep downward correction. Investors have already started to move away from long positions, and in the future it will happen more often and will become the main factor of pressure on the pair. Technical indicators continue to give a sell signal, and MACD shows the preservation of long positions.

Support levels: 0.7860, 0.7800, 0.7750, 0.7720, 0.7680, 0.7650, 0.7610, 0.7580, 0.7400, 0.7250.
Resistance levels: 0.7945, 0.7980, 0.8000, 0.8070, 0.8150.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened from key resistance levels at 0.7945, 0.8000 with target at 0.7580 and short stop-loss at 0.8060.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

 

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: general review

Current trend

Along with CAD, Australian dollar has been showing the best results against USD this week. The pair AUD/USD has grown by almost 200 points from the beginning of the week and yesterday reached the level of May 2015.
US dollar that has been weakening for the second week in a row due to bad macroeconomic indicators (especially inflation and labor market) is also under pressure from the statement of FOMC Chair Janet Yellen and her colleagues. Moreover, on Tuesday USD received one more major negative impulse after the Republicans and Trump administration failed to pass the health care bill that threw the President's ability to implement the reforms into question.

On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia published the minutes of a meeting on the fiscal policy in which the members of the regulator confirmed economic growth in the second quarter and the improvement of the situation of the labor market.
Yesterday's release from the US real estate market was positive, and USD showed minor growth remaining under pressure of the political situation. As a result, this week the pair broke through the important support level of 0.7800, 0.7900 and 0.7950, as well as 2-year maximum on the level 0.7830. Tonight's employment indicators and unemployment data from Australia were worse than outlooks which caused the pair to start correction.

Today the market is waiting for releases from the USA: industrial PMI from FRB Philadelphia that may drop by 3.6 points and initial and repeated jobless claims with expected minor decrease. All indicators are due at 14:30 (GMT+2).
The main scenario for today is the continuation of the pair's growth.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7710, 0.7750, 0.7830, 0.7900.  
Resistance levels: 0.7950, 0.8010, 0.8090, 0.8160.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 0.8010, 0,8090 and stop-loss at 0.7870.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 0.7900 with targets at 0.7830, 0.7750 and stop-loss at 0.8020.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/


 

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the Brent oil reached psychologically strong level of 50.00 USD per barrel. During the next hours the price went down again, but as the OPEC has difficulties due to the increasing oil production in Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, this was quite a positive signal.

Technically in the situation of uncertainty, which can last until the OPEC Meeting in St. Petersburg on July, 24, the investors consider that the level of 50.00 USD per barrel was the target level, and the rollback is due to the closing of the profitable positions. During last two weeks the oil is strongly supported by the decrease of the USA recourses, which reflects the summer growth of the demand in the USA, which is the 20% of the world oil demand.

The positive factor is the growth of the oil import into China, which General Customs Directorate reported in June. In the first half of the year Chinese oil import surpassed the USA one for the first time, making the China the leading world oil importer.

Today the Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count will be published in the USA at 19:00 (GMT+2). While the oil rig number has been growing for the last 14 months, the increase has slowed in last weeks.

The investors are waiting for the OPEC meeting on July, 24, and probably won’t take any action before it, so the consolidation of the price is expected.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 48.50, 47.30, 46.70, 45.80.
Resistance levels: 50.00, 50.90, 51.50.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the current price with the target at 48.50 and stop loss at 50.10.
Long positions can be opened at the level of 50.00 with the target at 50.90, stop loss is at 49.40.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/


 

[LiteForexTeam]

AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Last week the AUD/USD pair was growing due to the positive Australian macroeconomical data publications and the USD weakness, caused by the political instability in the USA. On Friday the trade instrument lost around 80 points, but this fall was due to the closing of the profitable positions below the key resistance level of 0.8000. Today AUD has a high potential to grow and can break the key level of 0.8000 in the nearest future, as the positive changes in the employment market and the growth of the economical active population in Australia promise the growth of the consumer activity and the accelerating of the economical growth in the country.
Today the investors should pay attention on the PMI index in the USA. The publications are not expected to affect the pair, and the further upward trend will be developing today. The nearest key issues of the week are the RBA trimmed mean CPI and the Consumer Price Index publication in Australia.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the pair is growing alongside the upper Bollinger Band, reaching the key resistance level of 0.8000. The indicator is pointed upwards, as the price range is significantly widen, which can confirm the development of the upward trend. MACD histogram reached the maximum in the positive zone, keeping a buy signal. Stochastic is ready to leave the overbought area, which will be the signal to open short positions.

Support levels: 0.7910, 0.7870, 0.7810, 0.7760, 0.7725.
Resistance levels: 0.7965, 0.8000, 0.8065, 0.8090.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the current price with the target at 0.8055 and stop loss at 0.7910. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 0.7905 with the target at 0.7840 and stop loss at 0.7935. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

 

[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: the pair is in the horizontal channel

Current trend

Since the beginning of the week the pair has been in the narrow trading range 0.7443-0.7415 that currently coincides with Bollinger Bands. The calmness in the market is caused by waiting for today's Fed's meeting. The majority of experts do not believe in changes in the interest rate. Taking into account the fall of inflation in June (from 1.9% to 1.7%), the members of the Fed may abstain from making important decisions and will wait for autumn meetings. The rate is likely to remain at the level of 1.25%. The market will be interested in the follow-up statement that may give hints at further development of the monetary policy, for example, indicate the time for the beginning of balance reduction. NZD also lacks serious movement drivers. Important data on employment and dairy products index will be released only next week.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price is in the narrow side range of 0.7443-0.7415 that meets Bollinger Bands that narrowed down (as usual before considerable movements of the price). The consolidation of the price above the upper border of the range and the continuation of growth is possible to 0.7500 and 0.7550. In case the lower border is broken own, the fall may continue to 0.7360 and 0.7300 (Fibo correction 23.6%). Generally the market is uncertain (Bollinger Bands have narrowed and are located horizontally, as well as Stochastic) waiting for the results of the meeting of the US regulator.

Support levels: 0.7415, 0.7360, 0.7300.
Resistance levels: 0.7440, 0.7500, 0.7550.

Trading tips

If the price consolidates above 0.7443 long positions may be opened with targets at  0.7500, 0.756 and stop-loss at 0.7410. Consolidating below the level of 0.7415 will allow opening short positions with targets at 0.7360, 0.7300 and stop-loss at 0.7450.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

 

[LiteForexTeam]

USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

Yesterday the Fed announced its decision on the interest rate. As expected, the value of 1.25% remained unchanged, but the cautious tone of the follow-up statement disappointed the investors that started to aggressively sell USD. As a result, the pair USD/JPY lost 100 points. At the same time, the US regulator still considers it possible that interest rates may be increased until the end of the year. Moreover, the Fed stated it intended to start reducing the volume of aggregated assets in September.

The key event of today will be the release of data on jobless claims by the US Department of Labor. The expected growth of initial jobless claims from 233K to 241K will lead to further fall of the pair.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart the instrument is trading around the lower border of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is turning sideways, while the price range has widened indicating the continuation of the current trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone with its volumes reducing, and the signal line is directed downwards which is a signal for opening sell positions. Stochastic does not give clear signal for entering the market.

Support levels: 110.70, 110.35, 109.90, 109.40.
Resistance levels: 111.70, 112.15, 112.55, 112.95, 113.50.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 110.50, 110.35 and stop-loss at 111.40. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 111.75 with targets at 112.35 and stop-loss at 111.50. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

 

[LiteForexTeam]

Brent: technical analysis

Brent, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is growing along the upper line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the EMA14, EMA65, EMA130 and just below the SMA200, which is horizontal. The RSI is approaching its strong resistance region. The Composite is growing having failed its longer MA.

Brent, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that start turning up. The RSI is trying to leave the overbought zone. The Composite is breaking down its longer MA. Both indicators have formed a Bearish divergence with the price.

Key levels

Support levels: 49.95 (March lows), 48.75 (local lows), 47.70 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 52.60 (June 2016 highs), 54.20 (February lows), 54.55 (May highs).

Trading tips

The price is approaching its medium-term descending trendline and the SMA200. There is a chance of a downward rebound.
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 49.95, 48.75, 47.70 and stop-loss at 52.15. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 52.60 with targets at 54.20, 54.55 and stop-loss at 51.85. Validity – 3-5 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/


 

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: general review

Current dynamics

Precious metal receives support from a demand from Chinese consumers, who are actively investing to hedge risks, in particular against falling property prices. So, according to the latest data, Chinese consumption increased by 10% to 545.2 tons.
Another factor of support for the XAU/USD pair is geopolitical risks. Donald Trump's advisers are trying to develop new sanctions against China. According to the American leader, China is engaged in unscrupulous trade practices and receives billions of profits, undervaluing the rate of the yuan. The aggravation of relations occurred when China did not do enough to restrain the development of the DPRK nuclear program and the launch of a new intercontinental missile.

Support and resistance

Gold on the H4 chart is trading near the support level of 5/8 Murray (1265.65). If the pair XAU/USD breaks this level, then the next target for the fall will be the level of 1250.02. If the price consolidates above the previous high of 1270.71, the target of growth will be the level of 1281.28.

Resistance levels: 1270.71.
Support levels: 1265.65.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the level of 1270.71 with the target at 1281.28 and a stop-loss at the level of 1262.00.

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[LiteForexTeam]

NZD/USD: the pair is moving to correction

Current trend

NZD remained in the upward trend against USD due to rapid fall of the latter. US dollar has been decreasing for several months in view of negative fundamental data and unstable monetary policy of the Fed. NZD, on the contrary, experiences excessive demand after the release of strong statistics and due to the stability of New Zealand monetary policy. By now, the price has entered the consolidation stage after considerable growth and is trading within the 0.7530-0.7455 range. This week special attention should be paid to labor market data and main indexes from the USA and the level of unemployment in New Zealand.

Support and resistance

In the medium term the volume of demand is expected to drop due to locking in long positions in the pair NZD/USD. Long downward correction is very likely to form from the current level with target at 0.7420 (lower border of the channel) or below to the key support levels at 0.7335, 0.7275. Technical indicators continue to give a signal for further growth: the volume of long positions in MACD indicator remains on the high level, and Bollinger Bands are still pointing upwards.
Support levels: 0.7455, 0.7420, 0.7335, 0.7275, 0.7250, 0.7200.
Resistance levels: 0.7530, 0.7550, 0.7575, 0.7600, 0.7650.

Trading tips

In the short term sell positions may be opened from the current maximum (in a view of corrective downward movement) with target at 0.7420, 0.7335. Stop-loss may be placed at 0.7590.

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[LiteForexTeam]

GBP/USD: the upward trend is still strong

Current trend

The British currency continues to go up against US dollar in view of the falling USD rate. Within two trading weeks the pair has been moving within the upward tendency without long corrections which indicates considerable decrease of demand for USD. US fundamental data cannot support the rate of the American currency. This and last week negative statistics was released on a number of macroeconomic indicators, namely construction sector, demand for durable goods, and labor market. The pound, in turn, is supported by strong demand and positive releases by key indexes.

Despite negative data on UK PMI, GBP continues to grow. In the end of the current week special attention should be paid to labor market data and the main US indexes, as well as the decision of the Bank of England on the volumes of economic stimulation program and interest rate. Moreover, the follow-up speech by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney scheduled for Thursday, may provide additional support for the pound.

Support and resistance

Technically the pair has a reserve of upward movement to the upper border of the upward channel at the level of 1.3450 followed by a long downward tendency. Currently there are no grounds for USD support from the fundamental background and the actions of the US regulator. Technical indicators confirm this tendency: MACD shows the preservation of the high volume of long positions, and Bollinger Bands point upwards.

Support levels: 1.3200, 1.3125, 1.2930, 1.2805, 1.2700, 1.2590.
Resistance levels: 1.3310, 1.3380, 1.3450, 1.3480, 1.3670, 1.3750.

Trading tips
Long positions may be opened from the current level with target at 1.3450 and stop-loss at 1.3100.

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[LiteForexTeam]

NI225: technical analysis

NI225, D1

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading just below the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is falling having broken down its longer MA. The Composite is approaching its strong support region.

NI225, H4

On the hourly chart, the instrument is falling along the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains just below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is approaching the border of the oversold zone. The Composite is falling as well.
Key levels
Support levels: 19889.00 (local lows), 19865.00 (July lows), 19670.00 (March highs).
Resistance levels: 20198.00 (July highs), 20288.00 (June highs), 20550.00 (May 2015 highs).

Trading tips

The price is forming a “contraction triangle” pattern. Positions can be opened after a breakout of either of its borders.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 20198.00 with targets at 20288.00, 20550.00 and stop-loss at 20090.00. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 19865.00 with the target at 19670.00 and stop-loss at 19963.00. Validity – 3-5 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/


 

[LiteForexTeam]

XAU/USD: general review
 
Current trend

After yesterday's fall gold price has restored lost positions and is currently trading at the level of 1268.00. The price of the metal as a safe haven asset is growing, while US dollar is weak after the Fed's refusal to increase the rates this year due to low inflation.

On Friday the market is waiting for a report on the number of non-farm payrolls. NFPR will gain 183K in July against 222K in June. The level of unemployment will drop to 4.3% from 4.4%, and average hourly salary will slightly grow from 0.2% to 0.3% in June, as expected.

Support and resistance

On the H4 chart XAU/USD is consolidating near the 1268.00 mark. The price has returned to the upward channel after a false break-through.  MACD indicator is below the signal line with its volumes reducing, Stochastic lines are in the overbought area and directed to the side.

Resistance levels: 1273.70, 1280.00, 1288.00.
Support levels: 1256.00, 1250.00, 1242.00.

Trading tips

The pair may be bought if the price breaks through 1274.00 with target at 1280.00 and stop-loss at 1272.00.
Short positions should become relevant below the level of 1263.00 with targets at 1250.00 and stop-loss at 1266.00.
Implementation time: 1-2 days.

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[LiteForexTeam]

WTI Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Today the price for WTI continues to move within the narrow side range 48.50-49.70.

During the Friday trading the price of oil was supported by the data on the reduction of the number of oil rigs in the USA. Within the week that ended on August 4 it was reduced by 1 to 765.

On the other hand, despite that the production of oil in the USA reached 9.43mln barrels a day which is the highest indicator since August 2015. Moreover, according to last week's release by Thompson Reuters Oil Research, the export of oil in OPEC states in July reached the record-setting level of 26.11 barrels a day.
In the beginning of the current week the members of OPEC+ technical committee will meet in Abu Dhabi to discuss the fulfillment of obligation to reduce oil production by certain parties to the agreement.

Support and resistance

The price of WTI is trading around MA(200) at the level of 49.50 and is still unable to break through it. MACD indicator is located above zero and signal lines, and Stochastic is in the neutral zone with its lines pointing downwards. Indicators give uncertain signals.

Resistance levels: 46. 60, 47.40, 48.20.
Support levels: 45.80, 45.20, 44.40

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the level of 48.40 with target at 47.30 and stop-loss at 49.00.
Buy positions may be opened if the price consolidates above 50.40 with targets at 51.90 and stop-loss at 50.00.
The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

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[LiteForexTeam]

SX5E: technical analysis

SX5E, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that start turning up. The RSI is about to test its strong resistance. The Composite is growing as well.

SX5E, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains just below the SMA200 and above the EMA14, EMA65 and EMA130 that start turning up. The RSI is growing towards the border of the overbought zone. The Composite turned up as well.

Key levels

Support levels: 3462.0 (local lows), 3430.0 (July lows), 3399.0 (April lows).
Resistance levels: 3515.0 (local highs), 3533.0 (July highs), 3552.0 (May lows).

Trading tips

The price is consolidating above its previous descending trendline. The growth is likely to continue.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 3515.0 with targets at 3533.0, 3552.0 and stop-loss at 3502.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 3462.0 with targets at 3430.0, 3399.0 and stop-loss at 3480.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/