ValdisTF Posted November 2, 2014 Author Share Posted November 2, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 03.11.2014 Fundamental analysis The US dollar continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket finished the trading day at around 86.15. The pair EUR/USD has lost 0.2% amid the US positive statistics and the Euro zone negative data. The US GDP preliminary data for the 3rd quarter came out better than the forecasted medians, showing an increase to the level of 3.5%. We have observed a strong economic growth that supports the dollar demand for the second quarter in a row. The Spain and Germany inflation releases disappointed traders with their weak data - the major economies inflation is decreasing once again amid the lower oil quotations and the weak consumer demand. The euro zone CPI decline jeopardizes the possible euro rise. The GBP/USD was also under pressure amid the US positive macroeconomic data. The strong GDP data for the third quarter amid the Britain economic growth slowdown cheered bears to open short positions. At the moment the pound quotes reached the mark of 1.5950 and then traders began taking profits on the "shorts" and the British pound was able to consolidate. It is worth noting the US and the UK bond yields expansion indicates the further bearish sentiment predominance within the GBP/USD. The bulls felt quite at ease within the USD/JPY. The US positive economic data supported the dollar demand as well as on corporate bonds demand in the US stock market. The dollar/yen enjoyed steady demand against this background and at the moment quotes reached the level of 112.30. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro has looked less vulnerable and after differently directional trade fixed some losses against the dollar, but they were less extensive. The US economic data that did not please traders supported the euro and the euro zone economic statistics showed quite positive indicators’ results. The sellers broke through the strong support level of 1.2600 amid the high volatility news last week. The level short-term test was followed by a slight price rebound downwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2670. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We expect the 1.2500 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.2400. Pound (GBP) General overview The British pound had different directed trades against the dollar and ended the session with its decline less significant than the day before. The sentiments, formed under the Fed's statement influence supported the pair pound/dollar sale and then the US GDP data caused the pound sale. The support level of 1.6030 breakthrough was followed by a reverse test. This level became a resistance. The price is finding the first support at 1.5950, the next one is at 1.5870. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.6100. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations After the trend line 1.5950 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.5870 will be opened. Yen(JPY) General overview The pair dollar/yen demonstrate its strong growth. The reason was the Bank of Japan decision at the meeting dedicated to the monetary policy issues. The Japanese regulator unexpectedly announced additional stimulating measures and plans for annual asset purchase increase to stimulate inflation - up to 80 bln. yen from the previously planned volume of 60-70 trillion yen. The market responded to the news with a high volatility with the US dollar increase against the Japanese yen. There was the strong resistance level breakthrough of 112.00 amid the fundamental factor. The price is finding the first support at 112.00, the next one is at 111.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 112.50, the next one is at 113.00. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 112.50, 113.00. Franc (CHF) General overview The pair dollar/franc was consolidating after it has reached the three week high of 0.9650. The KOF Economic Barometer index for October (99.8 forecast of 98.2) that exceeded our expectations supported the franc. The potential pair decrease is restricted by the market positive attitude towards the dollar and the loose monetary policy by the Swiss National Bank. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9680. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 04.11.2014 Fundamental analysis The previous week ended in the dollar favor in all spheres. The US dollar gave a powerful "fort" against the yen that was less strong. The dollar grew against the euro and showed a neutral result against the pound. The market was excited by Japan reports where the Central Bank unexpectedly increased its incentive program which provoked the strong dollar sales against the yen at the end of the last week. The EU largest economic data that continue to disappoint us helped to resume the dollar growth against the euro. The pair pound/dollar spent trading in the different directional consolidation and finished the dispute on the opening prices as there was no disappointed pound news and the US economic indicators were uneven, although most of them showed a positive release. The beginning of the week contains a lot of important US economic information, but the main theme will be the October employment labor report and the information about the number of work places in the ADP private sector. Our expectations are associated with a good dynamics that can point out to the continued high level of workplaces in the United States and it can support the US dollar according to the general rule "buy the rumor". However, the European news is able to set the trading tone, because both the Eurozone and the UK influential European Central Banks will announce their decisions about the monetary policy perspectives on Thursday. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The attitude towards the euro has not changed - the single currency ended last week with the continued fall against the dollar. The weak economic data from the leading EU countries strengthened pressure on the euro in the early trading. The sellers approached to the support level of 1.2500 amid the high volume. This level is the October minimum and it was broken through. The strong support breakthrough points towards the bearish trend continuation. It is likely to expect the level of 1.2500 retest acting as resistance. The price is finding the support at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.2400 soon. Pound (GBP) General overview The British pound was stable against the US dollar. Obviously, the lack of the UK information and the fact that the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve policy are directed to one side cause the market reticence, moreover this week the British regulator will hold its next meeting dedicated to the monetary policy issues. The British pound continues to uncertainly decline against the US dollar. There was formed the downward channel where the pair is now. Until the price is not out of the channel limits, the downward trend remains in force. The price is finding the first support at 1.5950, the next one is at 1.5870. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.6100. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.5870. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japanese yen was in the centre of attention. The yen fell against all of its competitors. The Bank of Japan last meeting decision to increase the quantitative easing volume caused the Japanese yen sales. The US dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen. The price growth was supported by the trading volumes that formed a new high for the last two weeks. The current price growth stopped at the mark of 113.80. It is likely that its correction can be in the short-term. The price is finding the first support at 113.00, the next one is at 112.50. The price is finding the resistance at 114.20. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The approach to the levels of 112.50, 113.00 lead to a price rebound upwards. Franc (CHF) General overview The frank continued to fall against the dollar after the euro. The dollar index reached a three-week high against a basket of major currencies after the preliminary data showed an unexpected increase in the US GDP in the third quarter, which confirmed the validity of the Federal Reserve's decision QE program is minimized and reflects the positive trends continuation in the world's largest economy. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9680. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 05.11.2014 Fundamental analysis The trades opening gave us a hope that the beginning of the week would be in the volatile direction. The US dollar has sharply grown up against all of the major competitors after of the China manufacturing activity (PMI) indicator decrease to the 5- months low in October. However, the "bulls" call about the US dollar was developed only in the dollar dispute with the yen where the US dollar continued its growth formed by the Bank of Japan last Friday when it announced the easing program expansion. The trades against the European majors were reduced to the consolidation range and ended on the opening prices relative to the pound and with a very slight increase to the euro. The news calendar did not please the investors with any important information volumes - the activity index data (PMI) in Europe and the US was published and showed a good result. However, the short-term optimism caused by the UK information, was suppressed by the US reports that the prices returned to their original positions. The data published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported the activity growth in the US manufacturing sector in October. The PMI index has risen to the level of 59.0 after 56.6 in September when it was expected to see a slowdown to 56.0. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The single European currency held the trading against the dollar in the side consolidation and was closed with a minor plus at the end of the day. The technical factors presented by the strong support levels where the euro/dollar fell supported the euro. The bulls broke through the strong resistance level of 1.2500 upwards within the euro in the short term. At this moment the insignificant breakthrough is not supported by the trade volumes. The price is finding the first support at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2670. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target – 1.2500. After fixing below the first target, the level 1.2400 will become the next one. Pound (GBP) General overview The beginning of the week was negative for the British pound – the pound fell against the dollar under the sentiment pressure caused by the China news. However, the British currency leveled all the losses during the trades and even some time it rose against the dollar. The good “cable” sentiment provided the UK economic data that announced the indicator activity result in the UK manufacturing sector. At the moment the price is between two important levels of 1.6030 - 1.5950. The breakthrough of one will be a good signal for the trade in the breakthrough direction. The price is finding the first support at 1.5950, the next one is at 1.5870. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.6100. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The trend is going downwards. After the trend line 1.5950 breakthrough the way to the support 1.5870 will be opened. Yen (JPY) General overview The yen sales were continued, despite the fact that it was a day off because of the holiday in Japan on Monday. The BoJ statement on Friday expressed even more clearly the contrast between the Japan monetary policy and the US regulators that reinforced and supports the dollar growth impulse against the Japanese yen. In addition, the Japan Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) supports the yen sales about the fact that it plans to increase significantly the foreign stocks share in their portfolio, and it is a negative factor for the Japanese currency. The growth rates fell in the area round the resistance level 114.20, of which at this time formed a downward pullback. At the same time the formed correction was also not supported by volumes. The price is finding the first support at 113.00, the next one is at 112.50. The price is finding the resistance at 114.20. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 112.50 leads to a price rebound upwards. The upward bounce potential target is 114.20. Franc (CHF) General overview The franc continued to consolidate against the dollar amid the speculations that the solid economic data increases the probability of beginning interest rates process in the United States in the middle of next year. The pair slightly declined at the end of the trades. The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9620. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9680. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted November 5, 2014 Author Share Posted November 5, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 06.11.2014 Fundamental analysis The market has likely taken a wait–and-see position, expecting the end of the week when the reports about the European Central Bank decision and the US labor market situation will be published. In this regard, we again observed the weak lateral trade at the auction where the dollar was sold, taking profit on the previously open positions. It is clear that investors have taken a pause and quite reasonably considering the possible new targets emergence after these important events. In addition, one reason for the dollar sale could be the US economic news that showed a negative change. The US news will issue the data that can provide guidelines on the labor market situation in October – the ADP report about the work places in the private sector is supposed to be seen with the 220 thousand increase after the earlier 213 thousand. This result will be the dollar support if it is confirmed by the forecasts. The October PMI data about the non business sector by the International Governance Institute (ISM) is less optimistic where the slowdown to 58.0 from 58.6 is possible while the overall index level is still high. It is quite possible that we will observe the range trading at the session today. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The attitude towards the euro has changed; the euro has grown against the dollar and other competitors. Perhaps, besides the investors’ desire to take profits on the short positions within the euro in advance of the ECB meeting closure, the EU economic data presented by the Eurozone prices dynamics report supported the euro. However, the European currency fell at the end of the trades. Buyers have broken through the strong resistance level of 1.2500 upwards. The level breakthrough was amid the reduced volumes and price bounced down, breaking through the level backwards. The price is finding the support at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The MACD indicator is oversold. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 1.2600 may lead to a price rebound down. However the price action does suggest that the potential rebound target is the support level of 1.2400. Pound (GBP) General overview The British pound spent the day in the very narrow side corridor. The pair attempted to decrease, but returned to the opening prices. Obviously, this situation might be explained by the UK weak news and pending the Bank of England meeting release that will be published on Thursday. The fifth consecutive day the British Pound is trading below the strong resistance level of 1.6030. The short-term tests are followed by the small prices rebound downwards to the support level of 1.5965. The price is finding the first support at 1.5950, the next one is at 1.5870. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.6100. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The nearest target remains the level of 1.6030. If successful, it is expected to fall to the level of 1.5950 and 1.5870. Yen (JPY) General overview The dollar growth continued against the yen. The pair stopped in a no-man’s land. Earlier the Japanese yen also strengthened against the US dollar. In fact, in this case there was a profit taking on the important week events expectations. However, today the yen is again under pressure at the session caused by the Bank of Japan head H. Kuroda who made it clear about intentions to continue easing for the economy stimulation and, on the other hand, the reports about the Republicans winning the elections. The formed consolidation at the level of 113.50 was followed by the price rebound upwards with the further local maximum price updating at the level of 114.60. The local maximum updating allowed buyers to touch to the resistance level of 114.60. The price is finding the first support at 113.50, the next one is at 112.60. The price is finding the resistance at 114.60. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations We do not have targets upwards. The visible mark the price can bounce further is 114.60 Franc (CHF) General overview The dollar-franc closed the trades on the opening prices. Earlier the dollar fell against the Swiss franc as traders close positions in advance of the two main events this week: the ECB meeting today and the US employment report on Friday. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9680. Should that level break down, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted November 7, 2014 Author Share Posted November 7, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 07.11.2014 Fundamental analysis The European Commission forecast has been revised downwards in terms of the euro zone economic growth in 2014, but the euro dynamics remained practically unchanged and then some experts have concluded that there would not be negative trends in the euro zone economy, the ECB would not apply the additional incentive measures. Perhaps it is so. However, the euro managed to lose about 100 points and before the meeting outcome announcement the market will decide whether it was a reaction to the weak service sector business activity data in October or to the significant retail sales decline or to the fact that we expect that Draghi will announce the additional measures. The Eurozone currency updated lows. Earlier the euro managed to win back some losses amid the Narayana Kocherlakoty’s unexpected statements, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis who had paid his attention to the US inflation low rate and told the possible Fed rate increase was inappropriate in 2015. Without any doubt, Kocherlakota knows what he is speaking about, because the US economy still needs stimulation despite the vigorous officials’ speeches. We expect quite good UK news. Besides the Bank of England meeting, traditionally held synchronously with the ECB, both the industrial production and the manufacturing industries data for September will be published, and the HBOS housing price index. It must be said that the confident speeches in the first half of the year left no trace and the market is not worried about the fact when the Bank of England plans tightening monetary policy. The market knows that it will not happen in the short term and the meeting will unlikely lead to the significant pound movements. Nevertheless, the pair is again testing new minimum mark. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The new ECB stimulus probability rose after the euro zone economic growth weak data release and the Bank of Japan unexpected decision to stimulate actively the economy. The sellers have broken through the support level of 1.2500 downwards for the second time and there has been observed the decrease to the level of 1.2400. The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The nearest target remains the support level 1.25. If the price fixates below the resistance level of 1.2500, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.2300, 1.2200. Pound (GBP) General overview "The British" fell in yesterday trades. Earlier the British pound was able to compensate most of the losses, provoked by the weak national statistics. The previous manufacturing activity publication was strong, but the construction sector state indicators have disappointed investors. The British pound updated lows at the level of 1.5870. The price has been reduced under this level. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The price keeps going down. The pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 1.5660. Yen (JPY) General overview The yen almost fell to the seven year low against the dollar after the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda said that it had not seen any limits for the fight with deflation. He also said that he had seen no limitations in the means that the central bank could use for this purpose. The price had found the strong resistance at the level of 114.60. The US dollar decrease against the Japanese yen is amid the increased volume. The price is finding the first support at 114.60, the next one is at 113.50. The price is finding the resistance at 115.80. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows show a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The potential growth target is the resistance level of 115.80. We don’t exclude a larger bullish correction soon. Franc (CHF) General overview The dollar has strengthened its position against the Swiss franc after the positive US labor market data release. The number of employees in the US private sector by ADP in October amounted 230K, vs. 220K. The data were positive for the dollar because of some extent they confirm the Fed’s clear optimistic sentiment at the end of the FOMC last meeting. The price is finding the first support at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9620. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9750. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted November 10, 2014 Author Share Posted November 10, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 10.11.2014 Fundamental analysis The last week ended with the dollar strengthening against its competitors in the financial markets. The ECB and the Bank of England monetary policy decision that was announced on Thursday, met our forecasts, the changes were not made, but the market reacted to these results by the dollar large-scale buying. Obviously, the investors regarded the BoE inactivity as the fears acknowledgement that the UK economic recovery had slowed down; there is a risk to return the downtrend and in these circumstances, the regulator does not intend to tighten the policy. As for the ECB, the signaling point for the market was the M. Draghi’s press conference that reaffirmed the European Central Bank decision to increase the quantitative easing volumes. The US economic data were scarce, but they were on the dollar side - the initial jobless claims fell immediately by 10 thousand last week while we expected the data would be significantly less positive, only two thousand. This information could also support the dollar as to some extent it added confidence that the coming labor report would note good results. According to our forecasts the employment statistics will announce its growth by 233/230 thousand of work places in the US non-agricultural sector and the US unemployment rate retention at the level of 5.9%. If the fact does not meet our expectations for the worst, the dollar demand will remain at the high level. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The single European currency could recover a few. Earlier the euro continued to decline against the dollar and fell to the new local lows. The reports that the European Central Bank left its key interest rate at the record low level of 0.05%, initially supported the euro, but the M. Draghi’s press-conference changed the market sentiment and the euro was in the sales wave. The support level of 1.2400 was broken through. The level breakthrough was amid the high volumes. The pair failed to consolidate below and returned to the position above this support. The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The downward movement will be continued. The potential decrease targets are the two levels of support: 1.2400 and 1.2300. Pound (GBP) General overview The pound slightly rose against the dollar. Earlier the British pound fell. The Bank of England has not changed the monetary policy parameters- the refinancing rate remained at the level of 0.5% and the bond purchases program is in the amount of 375 billion of British pounds. However, it was considered by the market as the reason for the pound decrease and put some pressure on the "cable". Sellers have managed to break through the support level of 1.5870 for the second time. The level breakthrough was amid the high volumes. The pair is testing the level of 1.5870 from the bottom. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3670. Yen (JPY) General overview The pair dollar/yen tried to continue its growth on the common sentiment for the "dollar", but its attempts were broken off amid the Japan stock market quotations decrease where the Nikkei fell by almost 1%. The dollar/yen managed to break the level of 114.60 upwards and consolidate above. Currently the pair is testing the support level of 114.60. The price is finding the first support at 114.60, the next one is at 113.50. The price is finding the resistance at 115.80. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The pair is close to the strong resistance 115.80. The price rebounds from this mark. Franc (CHF) General overview According to the latest forecasts in the world's largest economy there were created 235,000 new work places in comparison with the average growth rate of 226.670 last year. At the same time the unemployment rate is likely to remain at the level of 5.9%. The dollar has increased by 8% for the last three months that was the best result among the ten major currencies of more economically developed countries. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 11.11.2014 Fundamental analysis The week beginning was noted by the some dollar recovery against all majors. The Friday trade results were not on the US dollar side. The dollar fell against all of its major competitors after the US employment data partially met our expectations. In general, the employment report result was not bad - the unemployment rate fell in October to 5.8% against 5.9% in September as we had not expected the changes and the number of part-time workers and those who have no hope in finding a job, reduced by 0.3%. The new September workplace data was revised upwards. However, the October new workplace growth came out much worse than it had been expected amounting 214 thousand instead of 233 thousand that confused the market and provoked the US dollar sales. Moreover, it seems that the technical factors have put some pressure on the dollar as the levels where the main pairs are now are distinguished by the strong support/resistance which with the obvious dollar overbought was able to increase the profit fixation on the previous open long positions within the dollar. With regard to the dollar perspectives, the less strong job growth has not changed the market preferences and the "bullish" attitude towards the dollar. However, the absence of important events in the US as well as in other regions can support the correction that began last Friday and then the week trades will be in ranges. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro fell sharply at yesterday's trading. The attitude towards the euro was changed last week - buyers started to buy the European currency and at the end of the Friday it strengthened against the dollar and other majors. Obviously, the euro overbought reached the level that prompted investors to the correction, all the more that the US statistics gave rise to the emotional reaction against the dollar, showing the October work places increase data worse than it had been forecasted. We observe the upper bound testing of the downtrend channel at the level of 1.2500. The price exit from the channel limits opens the way to the resistance level of 1.2500 in the long term. The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 1.2400 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.2300. Pound (GBP) General overview The sterling fell slightly against the dollar yesterday. The British pound also grew against the dollar on Friday on the common emotions caused by the US economic data. However, the pound rise was less energetic in comparison with the euro one; the UK economic data could slow it down. The week news is not rich in the number of messages, but the important and influential information will be sufficient. The statistical data can support the pound. The consolidation led to the correctional growth above the level of 1.5870. The pair then declined and closed trades below this level. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The price is core trend. We expect the level of 1.5660 testing soon. Yen (JPY) General overview The dollar began to fight for its position against the Japanese currency. A pessimism towards the dollar became evident on Friday and the US dollar declined at the end of the trading day within the pair USD/JPY. The US dollar sales for the yen began after the US labor market report, some of which contained information about the forecasts failure. The Bank of Japan minutes and the Institute president H. Kuroda’s speech showed a clear intention to maintain the easing policy and increase incentives if required. Buyers twice tried to get closer to 115.80 resistance, but without success. There was the price rebound downwards. The price rebound from the level allowed sellers to get out of the rising channel. The pair showed some growth and closed the trading day above the level of 114.60 yesterday. The price is finding the first support at 114.60, the next one is at 113.50. The price is finding the resistance at 115.80. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 115.80. Franc (CHF) General overview The dollar increased against the Swiss franc. Earlier the franc sharply strengthened on Friday. The dollar showed the maximum fall for the last three weeks after the employment report publication was slightly worse than the average forecasts amid the discussions about the fact when the Fed will raise the interest rates from the record lows. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 12.11.2014 Fundamental analysis The new week was opened by the attempts to continue the dollar sales on the sentiment formed by the US labor report that was published last Friday. However, the success was not long on the "bears" side within the dollar, the levels where the US dollar had fallen turned out to be attractive for purchases and investors began to stock up the long positions volumes within the dollar. As a result, the Monday's session ended with the dollar strengthening against all the major competitors. The US news was not published on Monday. However, the yesterday's trades ended with the dollar weakening. We expect the NFIB small business sentiment report, it is considered that the optimism index rose to 95.5 vs. 95.3 in October that is a positive factor for moods within the dollar, but most of all it will not provoke reactions and increased volatility on the market. Apparently, this session will be marked by the weak range trading as the previous one. The US GDP showed its growth in the third quarter. The service sector has shown an increase in the workplaces by 181 thousand. It is worth noting that service sector includes 52 thousand from the recreational sphere. The processing industry has increased the workplaces by 15 thousand. The US population share in the so-called labor force showed an increase from 62.7% to 62.8% in October this year. The 62.7% index for September 2014 corresponds to the minimum indicator in February 1978. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro held the Tuesday trading in the narrow side corridor and at the end of the session rose against the dollar. Earlier the euro fell amid the European news as the US news was lack of important information and the euro was under pressure due to the last events – the less strong US labor report as well as the medium-level sentiment, preserving the dollar demand. The resistance level short term test of 1.2500 was followed by the price rebound downwards. The US dollar continued to strengthen against the euro amid the low volumes. The rebound from the resistance level of 1.2500 has led to the descending channel formation. The price decreased to the level of 1.2400. The buyers again corrected the price to the level of 1.2500. The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.2400 soon. Pound (GBP) General overview The British pound also spent the yesterday's trading in the side trade. The general market sentiment was influenced by the GBP/USD which decreased in the early session and then rose that resulted in the pound strengthening at the end of the day. The resistance level short break of 1.5870 was followed by the reverse price return above this mark. The reverse price return above the level of 1.5870 allowed the buyers to lower the price to the resistance level of 1.5950. The trading volumes are at the lows, besides today we expect the fundamental data releases. We expect a consolidation below the support level of 1.5950 in the short term. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.5660. Yen (JPY) General overview The USD/JPY trades showed a different directional movement, ended by the yen victory at the end of the trading day. Besides the general market sentiment, the pair dynamics was influenced by the events in the Japan stock market and in the US government debt market. The Nikkei fall provoked the risk avoidance and the yen strengthening at the beginning of the day, but the US "Treasuries" bond yields growth led to the dollar support in the US session. The short-term correction to the support level of 114.60 was followed by the price rebound upwards. Despite the reduced volumes, the buyers returned the price back to the resistance level of 115.80 where the price rebounded in the opposite direction. The price is finding the first support at 114.60, the next one is at 113.50. The price is finding the resistance at 115.80. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations If the price breaks 114.60 down it will open the way to the level of 113.50. Franc (CHF) General overview The dollar again began to lose ground after a slight increase. Earlier the dollar recovers its positions after the short recession caused by the US labor report publication. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9560. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 13.11.2014 Fundamental analysis We again observed the volatile range trading on the currency market yesterday. The major pairs remained in the side corridors that had been formed earlier, only this time the US dollar rose at the end of the trading day. The exceptions were the events against the dollar and the yen; in this case the dollar has reached the new local maximum and has closed trades with a profit. It is difficult to say what caused the dollar decrease earlier that mainly occurred in the US session. Perhaps, the absence of the news "irritants” and the speech by the Boston Fed president Rosengren influenced the market sentiment, who told during the interview with media that the US central bank should refrain from raising interest rates until the inflation target level returned to the Federal Reserve target level defined at the level below 2%. It seems that there will not be large-scale changes in the currency market - the dollar will likely trade in the same way against the euro and the yen, but it is possible the volatility increase in the pair pound/dollar because there will be much important and influential information in the UK. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro has consolidated against the dollar. There were no events that could support the euro and its interest could be based on the technical factors and the US Central Bank speeches. Moreover, the EU authoritative analysts’ statements could be a reason for the increasing pressure on the European currency. The trend is expected to go downwards according to this instrument in the medium-term. The correctional growth price continuation is expected in the short term. The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downtrend movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The pair is close to the strong resistance level of 1.2500. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 1.2600. Pound(GBP) General overview The British pound has sharply fallen against the dollar. Obviously, the market was guided by the technical factors and the US news. We expect the UK employment data and the inflation report by the Bank of England which will be commented by the institution president M.Karni at the press conference. The key resistance for bears is the downward trend line of 1.5950, from which the pair rebounded downwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The trend is a core sided. We expect the level of 1.5660 testing soon. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japanese yen fell against the dollar on the yesterday trades. The Japan stock market events where the Nikkei grew by 2% and then the rumors that the next Japan sales tax increase may be postponed to the later date put some pressure on the yen. At the beginning of the week buyers were able to break through and consolidate above the resistance level of 114.60. The level breakthrough was amid the low volumes and led to a consolidation. The price is finding the first support at 114.60, the next one is at 113.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 115.80, the next one is at 117.00. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The potential growth target is the resistance level of 117.00. Franc (CHF) General overview The Swiss franc rose before the referendum, scheduled on the November 30 after which the gold reserves increase in the ratio of 20% to the foreign exchange reserves from the current 8% can be required from the Swiss regulator. It may complicate the National Bank work in control over the exchange rate. In this case the regulator will be given five years to increase gold reserves to the required levels. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9620. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9560. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 14.11.2014 Fundamental analysis There was the volatility growth within the major pairs yesterday. The pair EUR/USD ended the trading day in the "red zone" amid the empty macroeconomic calendar. The oil quotes reduction contributed to the US dollar rise during the day. The bond market dynamics also supported the dollar demand – on Wednesday we observed the German and the USA yields spread extension. As we noted in our previous review - the Bank of England negative inflation report will encourage bears to open short positions within the pair GBP/USD. The monetary regulator lowered both the GDP growth and inflation estimation for the next two years. We expect to achieve the 2% target inflation by the end of 2017 that greatly upset the currency market participants. Against this negative background, traders hurried to get rid of pounds that lost 0.85% after the trades. We observe the steady uptrend within the pair USD/JPY and we do not see any reasons for its failure. The dollar feels quite at ease and bulls use the short-term quotations decrease to increase the "longs". We observed the technical correction in the US and Japan stock markets and against this background the pair dollar/yen quotes fell to the level of 114.88 after that we again saw the US dollar demand yesterday. Euro (EUR) General overview The euro was trading in the narrow side corridor and finally fixed the negative result against the dollar. There were some eurozone economic data that have shown the positive result, but it was not enough to give the euro solid support. The consolidation continuation was a good signal for the prices rebound downwards. Moreover, buyers were not able to lift the price above the level of 1.2500 and this level testing was unsuccessful. The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. The price is in the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The potential rebound target are the support levels of 1.2400 and 1.2300. The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.2200. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK economic data have shown the labor market positive results, but the inflation report and the BoE M.Karni’s comments caused a pessimism wave and provoked the pressure increase on the pound which fell against the dollar to the new local low and ended the trades with significant losses. The British pound broke through and fixed below the strong support level of 1.5870. The level breakthrough was amid the GBP high volatile news. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.5660. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japanese yen was traded against the dollar in the side consolidation and closed the session with small losses. Obviously, the pair little activity was the result of the different rumors related to the Japan fiscal policy that decide the sales tax fate, the possible early parliament elections and also amid the neutral events in the stock markets. There was the support level of 115.80 testing. It was amid the low volumes and failed to break above this level. The price is consolidating below this level. The price is finding the first support at 114.60, the next one is at 113.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 115.80, the next one is at 117.00. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations After the trend line 115.80 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance 117.00 will be opened. Franc (CHF) General overview The Swiss franc strengthened slightly against the dollar. The Swiss National Bank president, Jordan said that the adoption of the so-called “Save Our Swiss Gold” initiative would be a "fatal error of judgment” and would complicate the central bank work. In the center of this popular legislative initiative is the requirement to prohibit the Swiss National Bank from selling its gold reserves. In addition, the initiative requires that one fifth of the Swiss Central Bank foreign exchange reserves would be translated into the pure gold. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9560. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 18.11.2014 Fundamental analysis We observed volatility spikes within the major pairs last Friday that continued on the yesterday trades. After the moderately positive euro zone GDP data the EUR/USD reached the mark of 1.2550 from which the pair fell. The economic growth showed 0.2% in the 3rd quarter instead of the expected 0.1%. However, traders ignored this report amid the US strong economic growth, but economic growth in the Old World has not led to sustainable development. The US positive macroeconomic statistics will allow the euro/dollar to test 24th figure. Both releases from the United States pleased traders with the positive data and at the moment of quotes reached the level of 1.2455. The pair GBP/USD has started the trading week at the minimum value over the past 13 months. The Bank of England inflation release that was published on Wednesday 12 November has sent the pound to knockout. We have watched both the pair GBP/USD reduction and the UK and the US negative bond yields expansion for the last three trading days of the last week. The US positive macroeconomic retail sales and the consumer confidence statistics by the Institute of Michigan has only reinforced the "bearish rally" within the British pound and at the moment of quotes reached the mark of 1.5720 after which the pair decreased back to the minimums. The United States pleased traders with the positive macroeconomic statistics. The October retail sales rose by 0.3% while the consumer confidence indicator by the Institute of Michigan showed maximum values in July 2007. The increased consumer confidence is laying a strong foundation for strong economic growth in the 4th quarter of the current year. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro continues its downward movement after a slight correction. Earlier the euro demand has grown that allowed the European currency to finish trades with a profit against the dollar. This point is attributed to the US inflation perspectives that reduce our confidence in the US rate increase any time soon. However, the technical factors were a more serious as that triggering increased tendency to lock in profits on the long dollar positions. Buyers corrected the euro/dollar amid the low volumes to the downward trend line of 1.2500. The downward trend line of 1.2500 is a key resistance for the bearish trend. The price could not fix above this level. The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. The price is in the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The price is likely to go to the downward trend lines 1.2400, 1.2300. Pound (GBP) General overview The pound sales were continued and the overall session result was negative for the "cable". The negative sentiment was formed by the Bank of England quarter inflation report that was published last Wednesday and showed the inflation forecasts decrease and the UK economic growth. There was a rapid price rebound from the support level of 1.5600 upwards. The rebound was followed by the increased volume. Nevertheless the pair fell below this level. The price is finding the first support at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5870. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 1.5870 may lead to the price rebound down. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japanese yen declined against the dollar at the yesterday trades. The attitude towards the yen remained under the BoJ recent decision influence to increase the easing program volumes. However, the pair USD / JPY demand has reduced. The corrective price decline was formed. Then the pair continued the upward movement. The price is finding the first support at 115.80, the next one is at 114.60. The price is finding the resistance at 117.00. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 117.00. Franc (CHF) General overview The US dollar is strengthening in almost all the currency market instruments. We still expect the trends change and of course the most comfortable trend change will lead to another dollar high formation. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9560. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted November 19, 2014 Author Share Posted November 19, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 19.11.2014 Fundamental analysis We have observed the profit taking continuation on long positions within US dollars. At the moment of quotation the pair EUR/USD reached the level of 1.2540, the pair GBP/USD is consolidating around the level of 1.5660 and the pair USD/JPY reached the level of 116.70. After that the US dollar once again strengthened its position. The commodity and the bond market dynamics indicate that the institutional investors continue to open "longs" within the dollar. Particularly the strong government bond yield spreads expanded within the pairs GBP/USD and USD/JPY that confirms the current trends stability within these instruments. We should also speak about the Japanese yen. The Japan's GDP release for the third quarter pointed out to the technical recession that the yen weakening. And now the Japan financial authorities suggest that the sales tax rates increase from April was a mistake. In this connection, we can expect the further Japanese yen decrease. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview We expect be the positive European news. The Germany ZEW business sentiment is expected to rise up from 3.6 to 0.9 points in November and the eurozone sentiment is expected to grow from 4.1 to 4.3 points. The pair EUR/USD rebounded from the downward trend line of 1.2435 upwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2670. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The upward bounce potential target is 1.2600. If the price falls it will get to 1.2400, the next target is 1.2300. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK will publish inflation release that is a very important and influential data. According to the forecasts the October consumer price index (CPI) remained unchanged at the level of 1.2% y/y, the benchmark (Core CPI) has probably raised up to 1.6% y/y from 1.5% y/y that if it impresses the market, it will be likely negative for the pound. The pair GBP/USD is consolidating near the upper bound of the downtrend channel of 1.5660. The price is finding the first support at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5870. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The trend is going down. We expect the level of 1.5550 testing soon. Yen (JPY) General overview The dollar is stable near the seven-year highs against the yen amid the growing expectations that the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will announce the early elections and will postpone the planned sales tax rise, the next day when the data showed that the economy turned towards recession. The Japan's economy contracted in the third quarter by the year-on-year 1.6% in comparison with the growth forecast by 2.5%. The price is finding the first support at 115.80, the next one is at 114.60. The price is finding the resistance at 117.00. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The potential growth target is the resistance level of 117.00. Franc (CHF) General overview According to the US base producer price index for October is expected to increase by 0.2%, the overall index is expected to decline by 0.1%. The housing market business activity for October by NAHB is expected to grow from 54 to 55. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9560. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted November 20, 2014 Author Share Posted November 20, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 20.11.2014 Fundamental analysis The US dollar was under pressure yesterday. The pair EUR/USD was in demand during the day amid the positive release from the ZEW institute. The business sentiment rose to 11.5 in Germany that is the highest value over the past three months. The positive expectations about the German economy perspectives greatly encourage us, but we should not deceive ourselves - the trend is still negative and we should see a series of positive data. The neutral bond market news also contributed to the euro purchase. The pound was showing an upward trend during the day. The UK consumer price index has coincided with the forecast, showing an increase by 0.1% and at the same time the PPI rate has slightly decreased. The main reason for the inflation increasing became tariffs for the transport services. Nevertheless, the US and UK negative yield spreads held bulls back from the opening long positions. Traders have virtually ignored the inflation data and during the day we saw a flat within the pair GBP/USD. Nevertheless the pair grew. The economic instability provided the political instability in Japan. "Abenomics" is under pressure and, in this regard, the Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced the early elections and suspended the sales tax increase for 18 months. The pair USD/JPY reached the mark of 117.06 against this negative background, then we again saw profit-taking on long positions, allowing the yen to recover some lost ground. However, the US stock market growth encouraged bulls again for the "longs" opening. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro continued to strengthen its position. The better ZEW report for November in comparison with the forecasts supported the euro. The Germany and the EU data unexpectedly exceeded forecasts, showing the economic sentiment growth up to 11.5 pp and 11.0 pp respectively. The trading volumes continue to decline downwards both with the corrective growth and with the trade price within the trend. The bearish trend potential is still in force. The price is finding the first support at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2670. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The price is likely to go to the support levels of 1.2400, 1.2300. Pound (GBP) General overview The Bank of England's last meeting monetary policy minutes will not cause a strong reaction on the traders’ part this time. We received a quarterly inflation report the last week where the monetary authorities indicated all the key guidelines. In this regard, the traders will focus their attention on the Fed “minutes” publication. There was formed the quite strong divergence within the pound on the trading volumes. The downward trend is not supported by sellers and is gradually losing steam. The pair slightly corrected. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5660, 1.5550 soon. Yen (JPY) General overview The yen suffered losses against the euro and the dollar after the Japan Prime Minister Abe announced the early parliamentary elections and postponed the planned sales tax increase. This fact proves that the government is aware that the third world economy is not in the great shape and intends to take the additional stimulating measures. The dollar continues to strengthen against the Japanese yen. The upward trend is on the declining volumes. Technically the yen demand is gradually weakening. The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations We expect the 118.00 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 119.20. Franc (CHF) General overview The Swiss franc rose against the dollar after the US statistics publication. The data showed that the US producer price index rose 0.2% in October while analysts expected a decline by 0.1%. The figure rose by 1.5% in annual terms that is higher the forecast by 1.3%. The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9500. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9430. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted November 24, 2014 Author Share Posted November 24, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 24.11.2014 Fundamental analysis There was a flat within the major pairs the last week. The euro sharply fell at the end of the week. The pair EUR/USD was not able to test the 25th figure and at the moment of quotations reached the mark of 1.2555 despite the negative France and Germany manufacturing sector PMI release and then we saw a sharp decrease. The US inflation release came out slightly better than traders had expected, though it did not bring special dividends for the US dollar. The CRB commodity showed a moderately upward trend that put some pressure on the dollar. The UK positive retail sales release for October encouraged traders to open long positions within the pair GBP/USD. The index came out at the level of 0.8%, instead of the expected 0.4%. The British pound reached the level of 1.5735, then bulls began to close their "longs" and we saw a technical rebound below 57th figure. The US CPI release increased the US and the UK negative yield spreads that restrained bulls from the long positions retention. The first time for the last few months Japan issued the positive trade balance. The yen devaluation will reflect positively on exporters and as a result we have seen the negative balance reduction by 250 billion yen. However, the traders ignored the positive data and we observed the strong quotations growth to the level of 118.99. Then traders fixed profits on the "longs" and at the moment of the quotation the pair USD/JPY reached the level of 117.75 where it formed a consolidation. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro was consolidating near the 25th figure, but it sharply fell amid the ECB chief’s speech. Earlier in the absence of any important macroeconomic statistics it is difficult to expect high volatility within the major pairs. Even despite the negative France and Germany PMI the euro did not fall below 25th figure, indicating the traders’ reluctance to increase shorts. The bond market spreads also show the neutral background. The situation within the euro/dollar changed. The pair closed the week below the trend line 1.2400. The price is finding the first support at 1.2300, the next one is at 1.2200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations When the price consolidates below the level of 1.2400 it may go to the level of 1.2300. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK low inflation expectations put pressure on the "cable". In this regard, we observe the UK and the US negative differential bond yields extension that acts as the bulls’ deterrent. The pound corrective strength reached the week maximum - the resistance level of 1.5735 and fell to the level of 1.5660. The level of 1.5735 is below the resistance level of 1.5870 that is a key resistance on the buyers’ way. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.5550. Yen (JPY) General overview The pair has been growing for a long time and therefore now there are many people wishing to close the part of the "longs". The US stock market is showing strength after the minor technical correction, the Nasdaq index is again the leading growth that signals about the positive trend continuation on the stock market. The US dollar strong growth against the Japanese yen was stopped at the level of 118.60. From this level there was formed the short-term correction to the level of 118.00 where a consolidation is observed. The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.00. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 117.00 may lead to the price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 119.20. Franc (CHF) General overview The US consumer price inflation is above the predicted values, but it is not a reason for the active dollar sales and purchases. The pair sharply increased at the end of the Friday trades. The price is finding the first support at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9620. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9720. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9620. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9560. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 25.11.2014 Fundamental analysis The dollar weakening was noted in the major currency pairs yesterday. If looking beyond the events within the pairs EUR/USD and USD/CHF, nothing remarkable happened at the last trades. The dollar strengthened against the pound and fell against the yen, but there were consolidation movements on these instruments and they were within the previously formed correction ranges. In the dollar and the euro dispute there was a sharp dollar strengthening that led not only to the dollar increase by the end of the last week, during which the dollar was losing against the European currency most of the time. These euro large-scale sales for the dollar can be attributed to the ECB President M. Draghi’s speech who had promised to continue quantitative easing on Friday in his report at the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt. The ECB president statements gave more certainty that the European regulator would begin to include in their purchases the Central Bank and the Eurozone sovereign debt. There were published little the US economic statistical data, the most interesting is the Fed Kansas City report that showed the manufacturing sector activity increase in November that was higher than expected - the index grew to the level of 7 from 4 in October, though we expected to see improvements only to 6. The week news does not plan to present the important data and those that are preparing to leave for the most part are expected to be with the positive dynamics. It is unlikely that the attitude towards the US dollar has changed, if there are no surprising deviations from forecasts to the negative side for the dollar. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro was able to slightly recover on the yesterday's trading. The euro fell sharply against the dollar, having lost all the gains of the previous day sessions and closed the last week with a substantial decrease. The reason of such a sharp changes in the investors’ sentiment against the euro was the Draghi’s statement about the European regulator’s intentions to continue quantitative easing and its readiness to expand aggressively these programs. There was a rapid euro decline against the US dollar on the Friday's trading session. The price fell to the current month minimum- the support level of 1.2385. The euro has grown to a value of 1.2437 at this week beginning. The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The pair can break the support level of 1.2400. After breaking 1.2400 the pair may go to 1.2300. Pound (GBP) General overview The pound also increased against the dollar, but the "cable" buyings were moderate and were within the price range where there the lateral correction was formed. There were no reasons for disappointment within the pound and the UK finance data could disappoint investors. The trend remains bearish in the medium term. The price is trading within the side channel of 1.5730 - 1.5600. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950. There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 1.5870 may lead to the price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.5550. Yen (JPY) General overview The dollar tries to continue the growth. The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Friday. The Japan Finance Minister T. Aso expressed his concern about the rapid Japanese yen decline that set the trading tone. The correctional price fell from the resistance level of 118.00 to the lower bound uplink of 117.50. There the short-term consolidation near the mark was formed, indicating the bullish trend continuation. As a result the pair broke the level of 118.00 upwards. The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the resistance at 119.20. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations When the price consolidates above the level of 118.00 it may go to the level of 119.20. Franc (CHF) General overview The Swiss currency managed to win some of the losses.The franc has lost some ground the last week. The data publication showed that the US consumer price inflation did not change during October, but increased by 1.7% in annual terms. The benchmark that excludes the volatile prices for such categories as food and energy, have risen by 1.8% y/y. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9720. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9680. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9750. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted November 26, 2014 Author Share Posted November 26, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 26.11.2014 Fundamental analysis The dollar grew against the European competitors and has consolidated against the yen. Earlier we observed the situation where the risk tendency had increased. The news was weak in the amount of data that could affect the market, but it gave some impulse to the pair. The European indicators good business sentiment and less positive US economic statistics added some pressure on the US dollar. However, the dollar loss was within the correction range and did not testify any fundamental changes in the investors’ sentiment. The news will publish more important information and forecasts about the expected indicators promise to be in the dollar favor. The GDP assessment for the third quarter showed the result + 3.9% q/q, the consumer confidence index by the Conference board in November fell to 88.7 in November. However, the production index in the Richmond Fed influence zone was forecasted to decrease in November, and fell to 4 from 20 and the September house price index from the S & P / Case-Shiller for 20 megacities is increased to + 4.9% y/y. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview We received two releases from the US: the second third quarter GDP assessment and the Conference Board consumer confidence data. As for the first release - the consensus forecast by the leading banks economists from the Wall Street suggests decline by 0.2%, but the positive macroeconomic reports indicate the data output slightly better than the traders’ expectations. The price reached the level of 1.2400 amid the reduced volume and formed a consolidation there. The price rebounded upwards from this level. The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 1.2400, 1.2300. Pound (GBP) General overview The inflation parliamentary hearings were held in the United Kingdom. The CPI figures showed its growth to 1.3% in October, but the inflation expectations remain subdued amid the lower energy prices. The unemployment rate reduction with the moderate average salary increase will reinforce the inflationary growth in the commodity market correction period. The sellers have been reducing the price towards the downward channel the fifth week in a row. Every time when the price is corrected to the channel upper bound there is formed the price rebound downwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The upward trend line of 1.5870 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level of 1.5550 decrease. Yen (JPY) General overview The Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda has given his speech. Mr. Kuroda’s speech was traditionally characterized by his optimism about the economic growth perspectives in regard with the yen devaluation and the sales tax increase delay. The dollar index basket is aimed to increase near 88.70. The US and Japan stock markets positive dynamics also points out to the bullish sentiment within the pair USD/JPY. The short-term price decline was at the lower volumes and fell to 118.00. We expect the consolidation near this mark. The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 119.20. Franc (CHF) General overview The franc continues to win back its positions against the dollar and is waiting for the new reference points. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9720. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9680. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9750. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted November 27, 2014 Author Share Posted November 27, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 27.11.2014 Fundamental analysis The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (DXY) finished the trading day around 87.90. The EUR/USD was able to finish the trading day in a positive territory despite the mixed news. Earlier the second US GDP assessment for the third quarter pleased traders by the positive data –the indicator was revised upwards by 3.9%. The United States show strong growth for the last two quarters that is seen in the dollar strengthening. The parliamentary inflation hearings did not cause any significant fluctuations within the pair GBP/USD. Mark Carney denied deflationary fears and also pointed out that the cumulative monetary policy tightening would likely be less significant than it was expected earlier. The Bank of Japan governor’ speech was held on Tuesday and allowed the Japanese yen with the US dollar to compensate some lost ground. Haruhiko Kuroda said that the monetary authorities would closely monitor the yen devaluation as this process begins to exert pressure on households. It was also noted that rising inflation expectations affect the salary and pricing strategy. The pair grew after the US GDP the third quarter assessment release. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The Eurozone again will not please the traders with any interesting macroeconomic releases. The foreign exchange traders will focus their attention on the US reports. According to the leading indicators the US consumers’ activity is increasing and therefore we can expect moderately positive durable goods sales data. The support level of 1.2400 short-term testing has led to the correction to the level of 1.2500. The trades closed above this level. The price is finding the first support at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2670. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 1.2500 may lead to the price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.2400. Pound (GBP) General overview We do not expect the indicator revision upwards from the adjusted UK GDP release for the 3rd quarter. The release can be at the level of the forecasted medians. The moderately positive durable goods orders release can support the US dollar demand, but we cannot count on the strong dollar growth as traders ignored the positive US GDP release. The British pound has been consolidating at the support level of 1.5660 practically for two weeks. The pound sharply increased yesterday. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations If the price falls it will get to 1.5660. Yen (JPY) General overview Taking into consideration the US moderately positive macroeconomic statistics we can expect the dollar growth, but in connection with the Thanksgiving Day celebration and on this background the stock market participants took profits on the long positions yesterday. The price is consolidating above the strong support level of 118.00 amid the low volumes. The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations If the price fixates above the resistance level of 118.00, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 119.20. Franc (CHF) General overview The Swiss franc showed a growth continuation. The dollar was unable to maintain its achievements, despite the positive statistics release, including the GDP data and the house price index. The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9680. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9750. * Аналитический обзор представлен ведущим аналитиком брокера Fort Financial Services ,Александром Кофманом. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted November 27, 2014 Author Share Posted November 27, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 28.11.2014 Fundamental analysis The US dollar is under pressure the whole week. The pair EUR/USD was able to consolidate above the level of 1.2400 amid the German and the US Treasuries bond spreads reduction. The US macroeconomic statistics was generally positive – the durable goods orders increased by 0.4% in October. We should also note the personal consumption expenditures index growth to the level of year on year 1.6%. The Fed focuses namely on this indicator, determining the consumer activity. The new buildings rate sales in October stopped short before the predicted value. Despite the positive background - the euro again showed weakness. Institutional investors continue to take profits on the short positions within the pair GBP/USD. Despite the UK moderate negative statistics – the pound tested the 58th figure during the day. The retail sales release according to the industrials confederation data (CBI) for November came out worse than the forecasted medians. We should also note a sharp investment decline for the third quarter. As we noted above, to the contrary, the US statistics showed a positive trend. At the moment of quotation the pair pound/dollar fell to the mark of 1.5736. The pair USD/JPY was under pressure most of the day – traders, concerned about the Bank of Japan governor’s statement that the monetary authorities are worried about the strong yen devaluation, getting rid of the long positions. The price reached the level of 117.45, but then after the US positive macroeconomic statistics bulls were able to recover some lost ground. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview All traders’ attention will be focused on the Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting in Vienna. We again will see the Brent and WTI quotations decrease that will put some support to the US dollar. The downtrend trend line short term test at the level of 1.2500 was followed by the consolidation. The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 1.2500 may lead to the price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support level of 1.2400 and 1.2300. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK 10-year bond yields fell below 2% yesterday that is a bearish signal for the pound. The UK investments volume for the third quarter decreased by 0.7%, indicating the business representatives negative expectations. There was the downward trend line breakthrough of 1.5660 within the pound. Besides the buyers also managed to consolidate above this level. The bearish trend reversal was amid the low volumes. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 1.5870 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.5950 and 1.6030. Yen (JPY) General overview We should expect the lateral trend development throughout the day amid the absence of important macroeconomic statistics publication and the weekend in the United States. The OPEC summit results certainly will have an impact on the balance of power in the Forex foreign exchange market, but we should expect the lowest volatility within the pair dollar/yen. The US dollar continued to correct downwards relatively to the Japanese yen. The price corrective decline volumes are in the reduced zone, indicating the sellers’ reducing power. The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 117.00, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 115.80 and 114.60. Franc (CHF) General overview The Swiss franc has consolidated against the dollar the second day in a row after the US data release that fixed the jobless claims growth and the orders decrease, resulting in the intensified speculations about the world's largest economy growth prospects. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price above in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9680. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9750. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted November 30, 2014 Author Share Posted November 30, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 01.12.2014 Fundamental analysis The OPEC summit was held- the oil production level remains the same despite the strong differences within the cartel. Against this background we saw a powerful "bearish rally" within the black gold - the WTI oil has fallen below $ 70 / barrel the first time for the last four years. The pair EUR/USD was under pressure after the last week three-day growth – the Spain and Germany inflation preliminary data did not please the traders with their positive releases. The ECB President Mario Draghi underlined that the monetary authorities are ready to increase incentives if necessary and asked his colleagues to carry out additional analysis. The oil quotations decrease with the negative internal background put some pressure on the euro. The oil cartel decision sent the Brent quotes to the bottom that increased demand for the UK government bonds. The Gilts 10-year bond yields were at the level of 1.92% last Thursday that is the lowest level for the last 18 months. The UK inflation expectations are declining that puts pressure on the pound. Against this negative background, most of the Friday trades we observed the British pound sales and the trading day finished with decrease within the pair GBP/USD. The traders continued to get rid of the US dollar within the pair USD/JPY as they were afraid of the Bank of Japan's comments about the negative yen devaluation impact on the household spending. The commodity goods sales lead to the dollar demand. The pair closed the last week with an increase. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The Germany and Spain CPI preliminary releases showed the consumer prices decrease in annual terms, indicating that the data was at the level of the forecasted medians. In recent months we have seen the monetary aggregate M3 increase money amid the ECB accommodating monetary policy, but it will be not enough to increase inflationary pressure in the current circumstances. The oil market sales also will strengthen the demand for the US dollar. The four day euro corrective growth against the US dollar was stopped by the downward trend line of 1.2500. The trend line testing was followed by the consolidation with the further prices rebound downwards. The price rebounded from the trend line to the level of 1.2450 at the low volumes. The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The pair can fall to the support level of 1.2400. After breaking 1.2400 the pair may go to 1.2300. Pound (GBP) General overview The British pound was unable to consolidate its success after the resistance level of 1.5660 breakthrough. The price returned back and it has broken through this level downwards amid the low volumes. The key support for buyers is the uptrend lower bound of 1.5660. Based on the fact on which volatility the sellers drive the price downwards, the price consolidation will be formed near the channel lower bound in the short term. The price is finding the support at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5870. There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.5660 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5870 will be opened after this breakthrough. Yen (JPY) General overview Japan will publish a set of the important macroeconomic statistics where the October CPI data stand apart. On the one hand, we observed the yen devaluation and the money supply increase in October that is a positive factor for the inflation. On the other hand, the energy prices decline with the low household level will put pressure on the consumer price index. The second consecutive week the price has been consolidating within the side corridor levels of 118.60 - 117.60. There was a short-term lower bound of 117.60 breakthrough, but the price returned back above the level, forming a high volume. The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the resistance at 119.20. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations We expect the third resistance level of 118.60 testing in the short term. If the price rises at the low volumes and at the relatively low volatility, the price rebound will be possible downwards. The downward bounce potential target is 117.00. It can be followed by a price consolidation. Franc (CHF) General overview The franc continues to consolidate against the dollar in anticipation of the new movement catalysts. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price above in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9560. When the price consolidates under the first target it may go to the level of 0.9500. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted December 3, 2014 Author Share Posted December 3, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 03.12.2014 Fundamental analysis The euro fell against the USD. Earlier the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 87.97. The pair EUR/USD showed the moderate upward trend during the day amid the US positive ISM production index release. The manufacturing sector business activity was better in November than the traders had expected despite the decline compared with the previous month. During the day traders fixed the profits on the short. The sterling decreased against the dollar on the yesterday trades. The positive UK manufacturing sector PMI indices release let "bears" to close short positions. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index has been growing for two months in a row, but it is early to speak about the negative trend change - the annual trend is still downward. Traders are tired of pound sales and they decided to close the "shorts" on Monday amid the UK and the US negative yield spreads expansion. The yen continues to decrease against the dollar. Earlier the pair USD/JPY showed the quotations moderate decrease after the new seven year high set. The positive UK manufacturing sector PMI indices release for November allowed the bulls to recover some lost ground. The US is still encouraging traders with the positive macroeconomic statistics and in these terms does not allow the Japanese yen to strengthen its position. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview In the absence of any important macroeconomic statistics traders will focus their attention on the bond market dynamics and the "black gold" market. The German and the US Treasuries bond yields showed the moderate reduction on the first day of December. The pair has been near the downward trend line of 1.2500 for the second day in a row. The continued consolidation is followed by a slight rebound that is not supported by the volumes. The pair decreased on the yesterday trades and broke the support level of 1.2400. The price is finding the first support at 1.2300, the next one is at 1.2200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2500. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The trend line of 1.2400 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level 1.2300 decrease. Pound (GBP) General overview We received the UK and the US manufacturing sector business optimism release for November. Both reports came out better than the forecasted medians, but if we analyze the average annual dynamics, the US has a clear advantage for the last five months. The UK inflation expectations are still restrained - the 10-year bond yields are at the level of 1.91%. The trade was within the consolidation at the daily support level of 1.5660 for the larger part of November. There was a false level testing with the following rebound upwards. The price is finding the support at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5870. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 1.5660, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5550. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japanese importers will continue to defend the 119th figure. On the other hand, the moderate demand on the Japanese and the US stock markets will not allow the pair USD/JPY to fell below the 118th figure. At the high volume sellers broke through the support level of 118.60 and returned the price back to the upper channel lower bound of 118.10. Near this mark a short-term consolidation was formed. The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the resistance at 119.20. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 119.20 for a steady growth. Franc (CHF) General overview The dollar index rebounded from the five year high amid the overvalued US dollar speculation. However, the dollar resumed its growth now. Over the past three months the dollar rose by 6.8% that was the highest result among the ten major currencies of the economically developed countries. The price is finding the first support at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9620. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9750. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9750. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted December 3, 2014 Author Share Posted December 3, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 04.12.2014 Fundamental analysis The US dollar has strengthened its position against the euro and the yen - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 88.63 near the four year high. The bears used the pair EUR/USD quotations growth to open short positions at the beginning of the week. Yesterday we again observed the German and the US bond spreads expansion. The FOMC representative Fisher pointed out that the monetary authorities are ready to reject the phrase "for considerable time" concerning the monetary policy. It should be noted that Fisher is traditionally the earlier federal funds rate increase supporter and it is not a surprise for the market. The pound recovered some losses. Earlier the UK construction sector PMI index release has shown the lowest value for the last twelve months that with Gilts and Treasury 10-year bond yields increase sent the pair GBP/USD to knockout. The traders systematically sold the pound and against this negative background the quotations decreased. This decrease was followed by the pound growth. The Japanese stock market came out the two-week consolidation. The Japan salaries report came below the traders’ expectations. With the US trading session opening we observed demand for corporate bonds that also supported the US dollar. Against this positive background bulls were able to break through the 119th figure. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The ADP and ISM employment releases will lay the foundation for the Friday Non-Farm report. The leading investment bank economists from the Wall Street expect the both indicators decrease in comparison with the previous month, but now traders do not intend to buy actively the euro. The pair broke through the support level of 1.2400 and fell to the new minimum at the level of 1.2300. The price is finding the first support at 1.2300, the next one is at 1.2200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2500. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The pai need to break below 1.2300 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.2200 will be opened after this breakthrough. Pound General overview Markit Economics the center of macroeconomic research will publish the UK final release - this time we will receive the services sector business activity data. The UK average salary increase points out to the increased consumer activity, but the GfK consumer confidence indicator does not confirm such a positive picture. The level of 1.5660 is a strong support that was rebounding sellers upwards the whole last month. The pair is trading above this level now. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950. There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations After the trend line 1.5660 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.5550 will be opened. Yen (JPY) General overview We observed a steady demand on the Japanese stock market that encouraged bulls to break through the 119th figure. We can expect the data release at the level of forecasted medians from the US macroeconomic releases with small deviations that can cool down the bulls. We observe the Japan and the US bond yields expansion on the bond market that also points out to the upward trend development. The trade is without change within this trading instrument. The buyers have been rising for the third week the price towards the upward channel and at the lower volumes that can be clearly seen on the daily chart. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the resistance at 120.40. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations If the price fixates above the level of 119.20, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 120.40. Franc (CHF) General overview The dollar index hit to the five-year high, on the eve of the important economic releases publication that could lead to an increase in speculation about monetary tightening in the United States. Against this background, the franc recorded a significant decline. The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9680. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9800. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9800. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 09.12.2014 Fundamental analysis The dollar decreased at the beginning of the week. Earlier the dollar strengthened against all its major competitors. The US employment data supported the US dollar in November. The US labor market release has certainly become the main event of the previous week. Despite the fact that all the key leading indicators pointed out to the non-farm payrolls decline- we got the maximum growth levels since May 2010. In November employment growth totaled 321 thousand that is much better than traders had expected. The overall unemployment rate remained unchanged - at the level of 5.8%. It should also be noted the average hourly wage increase by 0.4% which can cause the household spending increase. Positive data formed a strong a strong economic growth foundation in the 4th quarter which further increased the US dollar supporters. The dollar strengthened along the entire market – the USDX index closed at the mark of 89.33 and came close to its eight year high. At the end of the trading day the pair EUR/USD and the pair GBP/USD increased and the pair USD/JPY decreased from the new maximum. Taking into consideration that other region news will not be released we can consider the foreign exchange market lower activity. However, the impression produced by the US employment data can extend their impact on the market for some time. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview Monday was not rich with important macroeconomic statistics. It is necessary to pay attention to the Germany industrial production report. There was the German industry volume orders increase by 2.5% in October that points out to the positive manufacturing sector data output. In the light of this, the European single currency can get some support, but we cannot on the strong demand. After a short-term quotations growth traders will open short positions. The price is finding the first support at 1.2300, the next one is at 1.2200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2500. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The approach to the resistance level of 1.2400 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.2200. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK and the United States will not please traders with interesting macroeconomic releases. In this regard, traders will focus their attention on the bond market dynamics. The Treasury and Gilts 10-year bond yields have grown again after the negative labor market release that is a bearish factor for the British pound. The last trading week closed on the minimum value over the past 13 months points out to the steady bearish trend. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5760, the next one is at 1.5870. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5550 soon. Yen (JPY) General overview The personal consumption significant reduction was caused by the spring sales tax rate increase. That event has had a serious affect on the economic growth. The Japan and the US stock exchanges show a positive trend after the US strong employment release and against this background, we should expect the bullish trend continuation. The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.40. The price is finding the resistance at 121.60. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The upward bounce potential target is 120.40/ Franc (CHF) General overview The franc decreased against the dollar strengthening. Last Friday the dollar index rose to its highest level since August 2006 after the employment report confirmed that the US economy was recovering with the stronger pace than economists could imagine. The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9680. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9800. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9800. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 10.12.2014 Fundamental analysis The US dollar was under pressure amid the partial profit taking on long positions - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 89.14. From all the published macroeconomic releases we should pay attention to the Germany industrial production report that showed an increase by 0.2% in October. The German and the US Treasuries bond yields have once again expanded, indicating the bearish sentiment presence within the major currency pairs. The pair GBP/USD repeated the pair EUR/USD fate we observed profit-taking on short positions. The pound strengthened namely on technical factors – there was no fundamental prerequisites for the quotations growth. On the contrary, the negative UK and the US 10-year bond yields expansion points out to the bearish trend continuation. However, we should always understand that before the trend continuation often is a technical correction when institutional investors fix the partial profit taking and then again increase their portfolios at the attractive levels. The final Japan GDP data for the 3rd quarter were revised into the negative region to the level of -0.5% that confirms the presence of severe structural problems in the Japan economy. Within the pair USD/JPY we observed the "longs" closure and the quotations reduction. The US and Japan stock markets showed the same weakness that also put pressure on the US dollar. The pair dollar/yen has significantly strengthened for the recent weeks and the technical correction is already overdue. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The traders’ attention will be focused on the bond market dynamics. Yesterday the Brent oil set a new five-year low that again increases the downside risks for the euro area inflation. Against this background we have observed the US and Germany bond yields expansion that is a negative factor for the single European currency. From the technical point of view the bearish trend is still relevant. The upward correction was formed in the short term. The price is finding the first support at 1.2300, the next one is at 1.2200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2500. There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations We expect the 1.2400 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.2500. Pound (GBP) General overview The British pound showed strength amid the partial profit taking on short positions. The UK inflation expectations reduction with sales on the commodity market will form a stable downward trend. The strong level of 1.5660 did not have time to be a strong level after last Friday it was broken through downwards. In the light of the lower volumes there was a reversal breakthrough. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5760, the next one is at 1.5870. There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.5760. Yen (JPY) General overview We can expect the moderate quotations decline towards 120.50 / 120.20 amid the technical correction on the Japanese stock market. Near 17 564 the Nikkei 225 stock index can find a demand that also will support the US dollar. The positive correlation between the two instruments is still strong enough due to the ultra-loose monetary policy pursued by the Bank of Japan. There was the price rebound downwards from the rising channel upper bound of 121.80. Amid the low volume sellers have been reducing the price for the second day in a row. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 118.00 soon. Franc (CHF) General overview The pair is under pressure amid the US Treasury bond yields decrease. The pair potential reduction is limited by the franc sales in the decreasing franc/yen, the Switzerland unexpected consumer price index decrease by 0.1% in November against the forecast of 0.0% and the extremely loose monetary policy by the Swiss National Bank. The price is finding the first support at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9620. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9800. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The pair is correcting now. We expect the new growth. We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted December 11, 2014 Author Share Posted December 11, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 11.12.2014 Fundamental analysis The US dollar was again under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 88.58. At the moment the dollar index fell below the strong support level of 88.19, but at the end of the trading day it was able to recover some of its lost ground. The pair EUR/USD was in demand most of the day amid the short positions closure. There are a lot of market short positions and in this regard we have seen a volatility spike within the euro/dollar. However, after the London banks closure there was a reversal. The UK October negative industrial release encouraged bears to open the short positions within the pair GBP/USD and at the moment quotations reached the level of 1.5630, but traders sold the US dollar along the entire market that also supported the demand for the British pound. The pair could reach the level of 1.5718 during the trades. The Japanese yen significantly devalued last week and it is not surprising that traders started to unload their portfolios closing "longs". It should be noted that the correction within the pair USD/JPY was formed and impressive sales on the US and Japan stock markets only increased the downward pressure on the US dollar. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The correctional movement within the single European currency is coming to its logical conclusion and tomorrow when the United States will publish the retail sales release for November, we can expect the demand for the US dollar. The bond market dynamics also is showing a neutral background. There was a downward trend line short-term testing of 1.2400 amid the increased volume. The trend testing was followed by the impulse price rebound downwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 1.2500 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.2400, 1.2300. Pound (GBP) General overview Bulls tried to develop a corrective movement, using a profit-taking on the short positions on the financial institutions part. The UK industrial production report for October disappointed traders with its weak data - instead of the growth rate we observed a decline by 0.1%. This release supports the BoE’s 4th quarter slowdown forecast. The British pound is slowly correcting towards the downward trend line of 1.5760 that is the key support for the bearish trend. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5760, the next one is at 1.5870. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The level of 1.5760 testing is more likely to lead to the rebound downwards. Yen (JPY) General overview The traders’ attention will be focused on the US and Japan stock markets dynamics amid the empty macroeconomic calendar. Yesterday S & P500 and the Nikkei 225 stock indices came to the strong support that can encourage bulls for opening long positions. The support level of 119.20 breakthrough was amid the very high volume. The pair continued its falling after this support break. The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40. There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 120.40 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 121.60 will be opened after this breakthrough. Franc (CHF) General overview In the evening the Swiss Franc was able to recover the fall by 50% against the dollar. The dollar suffered losses against the most major currencies after another collapse in energy prices, triggering speculations that the Fed can hold off raising interest rates without fear of inflationary pressures. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750. There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target - 0.9620. When the pair consolidates under the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9560. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 15.12.2014 Fundamental analysis The November US retail sales release returned everything on its places - the US dollar finished last week in the "green zone" along with the stock markets. The pair EUR/USD closed the trading with the price decrease by 0.5%. The US retail sector sales in November increased by 0.7% and in addition it was revised the October release towards growth. This report confirms the US economy increased strength that immediately reflected on the euro quotations. Nevertheless, the euro increased on the Friday trades. In the bulls and bears dispute within the pair GBP/USD no one won at the end of the trading week. The UK 10-year bond yields have grown by 0.3% with the profit-taking on the long positions within the cross-rate EUR/GBP that did not allow the pound to develop a strong downward trend after the US positive retail for November. The pair is consolidating. The Japan negative macroeconomic statistics and the US positive data forced bears within the pair USD/JPY to surrender. The two reports came out worse than traders had expected - the change in machinery and equipment orders as well as the service sector activity index. In this context, we receive the first wake-up call for an economic growth in the 4th quarter of this year. On the contrary, the US pleased traders with the strong retail sales data that in November rose by 0.7%. This release with the leading indicators from ISM points out to the strong economic growth for the last three months of the year. The US and Japan stock exchanges have responded positively to the strong retail sector sales data and against this background, the pair dollar/yen started a consolidation. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The industrial sector business optimism by Markit Economics in October showed a symbolic increase and therefore we can expect the data release at the level of 0.1% - 0.2%. We cannot count on the strong release in terms of the France manufacturing sector strong reduction. The US producer price index data can also reach the level of the forecasted medians amid the "bears’ rally" on the oil futures market. The consumer sentiment index by the University of Michigan can also be at the consensus forecast. The rice almost came to the upper border of the downtrend channel 1.2500, then it rebounded down. The rebound target was the support level of 1.2400, from which the price rose up. The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 1.2400, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.2300 and 1.2200. Pound (GBP) General overview The trade within the pound has been for a long time near the downward trend line of 1.5750. The buyers tested this resistance last week. It is worth noting that the price tested the 1.5760 resistance and then rebounded down. The support level of 1.5660 was also tested. The price is not determined the direction and consolidated. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5760, the next one is at 1.5870. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The potential decrease target is the resistance level of 1.5660. Yen (JPY) General overview The yen fell at the end of last week for the first time on rumors that the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of the Liberal Democratic Party will probably win in the elections which took place on the weekend. The Japan basic machine orders data points out to the Japanese economic difficulties. According to the data, the leading capital expenditure indicator decreased by 6.4% after growth during five months in October while economists expected decline by 1.9%. The support level short-test of 118.00 was followed by the prices rebound upwards with the further downtrend channel upper bound of 119.20 testing. Then the pair decreased under this resistance. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The pair is close to the strong resistance level of 119.20. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 120.40 and 121.60. Franc (CHF) General overview The dollar exchange rate increased due to the US high retail sales. Nevertheless the dollar decreased at the end of the last week. The good November indicators allow us to expect the Fed forecast revision towards the earlier policy tightening at the meeting next week. We expect that it will give significant support to the dollar at the end of the year The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target - 0.9560. When the pair consolidates under the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9500. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.