ValdisTF Posted September 20, 2016 Author Share Posted September 20, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 21.09.2016 Euro General overview The dollar weakened on Tuesday. Traders were cautious ahead of BoJ and Fed meetings. Current situation The pair tried to regain the level 1.1200, but failed. The euro bullish spike faded and the pair dropped below the level 1.1200. The 4 hours chart shows that the price briefly broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs and immediately rolled back. The EUR/USD was below the 200-EMA at the start of the North American session. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA downwards in the mentioned timeframe. The moving averages direction is downwards. The resistance is seen at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1130. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is within the negative territory. Trading recommendations The EUR/USD pair is neutral now. We recommend staying out of the market before the Fed meeting. The dollar may strengthen towards 1.1050 on the back of the Fed decision to raise the rates. Alternatively, the price will jump towards 1.1300. Pound General overview The pound decreased and faced a new selling pressure. Buyers failed to hold above 1.3000 on the back of the weak dollar. There was not much to watch on the UK calendar on Tuesday. Current situation After a brief consolidation in the Asian session the price gave up its recent gains. The sterling was not able to sustain its growth and sharply fell below the psychological level 1.3000 during the European hours. Now the price is heading lower towards the next support at 1.2870. The price remained below the main moving averages which are all pointing lower. The current resistance is seen at 1.3000, the support exists at 1.2870. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold area. Trading recommendations The pair remains in red figures. The GBP/USD now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 1.2870. Yen General overview The yen preserved a neutral tone ahead of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan Current situation The price was able to recover and reversed some of its losses but remained in bearish territory. The USD/JPY was in the consolidation range between 102.00 and 101.40 on Tuesday. The quotes went back and forth within the range during the day. The instrument was struggling with the 50 and 100 EMAs which act as a resistance in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are neutral. The resistance is at 102.50, the support comes in at 101.40. MACD entered the negative area. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is within the neutral territory. Trading recommendations We preserve a short-term neutral outlook for the pair ahead of the BoJ and Fed meetings. If the price fixates below the support 101.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 101.00 and 100.40. Should the pair recover ground and advance beyond the 102.50 level, the rally can extend in the short term up to 103.50. USD/CAD General Overview The Canadian dollar got under pressure following oil prices decrease, when Venezuela stated the necessity to bring oil production down. Current situation The pair was positive and traded near the 6-week highs on Tuesday. After a short consolidation during the Asian hours buyers pushed the price higher. The moving averages extended their growth. The 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs keep heading higher. The resistance is at 1.3200, the support comes in at 1.3100. MACD remained in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is approaching overbought area Trading recommendations The pair is overbought and we do not exclude a downward correction right now. The price may decline towards the 1.3100 region where the 50-EMA stands. In the scenario, where buyers keep control over the market the USD/CAD will trend higher towards 1.3300. XAUUSD General overview Gold was neutral on Tuesday as traders prepared for the U.S. and BoJ central banks meetings. Current situation Gold prices enjoyed a mixed session through trade on Tuesday. The price recovered during the Asian session and turned around in the European one. The pair came across a selling pressure near the resistance 1320, turned around and headed towards 1310. The XAU/USD bounced from the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages kept heading lower. The resistance is at 1320, the support comes in at 1310 dollar per ounce. MACD decreased which indicates the strength of sellers. RSI is within the neutral territory. The oscillator is heading south. Trading recommendations If the Fed raises the rate as the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 1300. If the U.S. regulator keeps the rate unchanged the price will grow through 1320 towards 1330. Brent General overview Venezuela statements about the necessity to cut the oil production by 10% weighed on the oil prices. Besides, oil futures decreased amid risk aversion in the market. Current situation After a brief pause during the Asian hours the crude oil prices faced a new downward pressure in the European session. Sellers were able to drive Brent futures lower. The instrument tested the level 45.30 but failed to go further. The lowest selling price was marked at 45.05. The 50 and 100 EMAs extended their declines and crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 200-EMA is moving upwards. The resistance is at 46.50, the support comes in at 45.30 dollars per barrel. MACD remained within negative territory which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is approaching oversold area Trading recommendations We would be selling Brent only if the price drops below 45.30. Otherwise, the instrument may strengthen towards 46.50 - 47.00. DAX General overview The DAX index traded higher on Tuesday. The growth of chemistry-related shares supported the European stocks. Current situation The price jumped in the Asian session on Tuesday. The DAX index traded near previous week high. The index seems to have found a decent resistance near the 10470 region. The 200-EMA limits its further growth. The instrument stopped a few pips below the line. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA downwards and is about to cross the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is seen at 10520, the support lies at 10350. MACD remained in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is within the neutral territory. The oscillator advanced north. Trading recommendations A move above 10470 will lead the price to 10520. A break above this level risks a further growth towards 10600. Alternatively, if we see a close below 10350 we will sell. Sellers’ targets are the marks 10250 and 10175. S&P500 General overview Wall Street opened higher on Tuesday. However, investors are cautious ahead of the Fed meeting that will conclude on Wednesday. Current situation The index remained neutral and traded mixed on Tuesday. The price grew in the Asian and the European sessions and turned around in the North American one. The 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs extended their declines. The resistance is seen at 2150, the support is at 2140. MACD remained in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is neutral. Trading recommendations To trigger additional downward momentum towards 2130 the price needs to break the level 2140. We also cannot rule out the chance that the index would try to get to the level at 2150. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted September 21, 2016 Author Share Posted September 21, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 22.09.2016 Euro General overview The BoJ decision to leave the rate unchanged did not impact the pair. The EUR/USD was unmoved during the European trade on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of the Fed meeting results. Current situation The euro got under selling pressure during the Asian session on Wednesday. The lowest trading price was marked at 1.1120 (the lowest mark since August 21st). The price turned around and recovered back to the opening level – 1.1150 in the middle of the night session. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards and is crossing the 200-EMA now. All moving averages are heading south which confirms the sellers’ strength. The resistance is seen at 1.1150, the support stands at 1.1100. MACD remained in the negative territory. RSI consolidated within the oversold area. Trading recommendations The pair will mostly depend on the US data on Wednesday. If the Fed changes the rates the price may decline further down towards 1.1100 and 1.1050. If the US Central Bank maintains its rates unchanged the euro may strengthen towards 1.1200 and 1.1250. Pound General overview The pound weakened against the dollar despite the positive UK statistics on Wednesday. Traders waited for the Fed decision regarding the rates later the day. Current situation The pair seems to continue with the recovery in the European session on Wednesday. The price bounced off the boarder of the oversold zone. The sterling was able to erase some loses turning higher. The GBP/USD traded near 1.3000 in the middle of the European trade on Wednesday. The 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs maintained their bearish slope. All moving averages keep heading lower. The current resistance is seen at 1.3000, the support exists at 1.2870. MACD is negative which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold territory. Trading recommendations On the whole, the GBP/USD pair threatens further downside pressure. The pound may weaken on the back of the Fed decision regarding the rates. In this potential scenario, the price will fall towards 1.2870. Conversely, the quotes will continue with the recovery towards 1.3100. Yen General overview The dollar strengthened despite the BoJ decision to keep the rates unchanged. Current situation The USD/JPY traded mixed on Wednesday. The price fell below 101.15 and then sharply rallied in the Asian session. The pair jumped towards the level 102.50 where it suffered a short lived downward movement. The price is struggling with the 101.40 level now. The USD/JPY remained below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages show a moderately bearish slope. The resistance is at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40. MACD is negative which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold territory. Trading recommendations If the USD/JPY breaks the support 100.40 that should send this market looking for the 100.00 level. Otherwise, the price will grow towards 102.50 and 103.00. AUD/USD General Overview The AUD/USD grew on the back of the oil prices growth. Current situation The pair had a positive day on Wednesday. After a brief consolidation the pair resumed its near-term bullish movement. The price has been growing for the third consecutive session. The AUD/USD stopped a few pips below 0.7600 in the European session. The instrument broke the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards in the 4 hours chart. Now these moving averages act as a support for the aussie. The 200 and 100 EMAs are neutral, the 50-EMA is pointing higher. The resistance is at 0.7600, the support comes in at 0.7540. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is within the overbought area. Trading recommendations A move above 0.7600 will trigger additional upward momentum. We believe that the price could escalate up to 0.7650. XAUUSD General overview Gold futures grew to the one-week high when the BoJ announced new monetary policy measures. Current situation The XAU/USD retreated from the weekly low in the Asian session. The price rallied and was able to break the level 1320 dollar per ounce. The pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate resistance at 1330. The yellow metal broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs upwards in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are turning upwards. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1320 dollar per ounce. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI is approaching the overbought territory. Trading recommendations If the price overcomes 1330 we will neutralize our medium term negative outlook. Buyers may push the price towards the mark 1335. Alternatively, the XAU/USD falls below 1320 dollar per ounce. Brent General overview Brent prices grew following a draw in U.S. crude inventories. Besides, the oil service worker strike in Norway threatens the oil output which supports the current oil prices rally. Current situation Oil prices gapped higher at the start of Wednesday. The price immediately jumped from 46.25 to 46.45 dollars per barrel. The crude oil remained close to the level 46.50 during the European trade on Wednesday. The price touched the bearish 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA is heading lower, the 200-EMA is moving upwards. The resistance is at 46.50, the support comes in at 45.30 dollars per barrel. MACD remained within negative territory which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is approaching oversold area Trading recommendations The Brent will mostly depend on the Crude Oil Stocks change report on Wednesday. A further draw in the inventories shall support the prices. Brent may continue its upward trajectory towards 47.50. On the other hand, a growth of inventories may weigh on the price which will fall below 46.50 dollars per barrel towards 45.30. DAX General overview European stocks opened higher after the BoJ announcement its new monetary policy measures. Current situation The price gapped higher in the Asian session on Wednesday. The index jumped from 10400 to 10430. Buyers were able to extend a recovery towards 10520 where the upward momentum faded and the price rolled back. DAX shortly broke the 200-EMA upwards and immediately returned below the line. The 50-EMA is crossing the 200-EMA downwards in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs are moving downwards, the 200-EMA is advancing north. The resistance is seen at 10520, the support lies at 10350. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI bounced from the overbought area. Trading recommendations To trigger additional upwards momentum towards 10700 the price needs to break the level 10520. We cannot rule out the chance that DAX would return to 10350. S&P500 General overview Wall Street opened higher ahead of the Fed rate decision. Current situation The index opened higher on Wednesday. The price traded with slight gains. S&P500 was able to escalate up to the level 2150 during the European trades. The 50 and 100 EMAs are neutral, the 200-EMA maintained its bullish slope. The resistance is seen at 2150, the support is at 2140. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI is neutral. Trading recommendations To move higher the price needs to break the immediate resistance at 2150. Once we break above 2150, we think that the 2160 level will be next. A move below 2140 might force the index to resume its downward trajectory towards 2135. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted September 22, 2016 Author Share Posted September 22, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 23.09.2016 Euro General overview The dollar weakened on the back of the Fed decision to maintain its rate unchanged. Current situation Despite the recent growth our outlook is still bearish. The price remained in the descending channel. The pair broke the 1.1200 level overnight and trended towards 1.1250 in the European session on Thursday. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) narrowed and are neutral now. The resistance is seen at 1.1250, the support stands at 1.1100. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI is in the overbought area. Trading recommendations The price may roll back towards 1.1200 where it may turn around and presume its growth. Alternatively, if sellers are back in the game the EUR/USD pair will decrease towards 1.1150. Pound General overview The pound is in demand due to the risk appetite growth and amid the dollar weakness across the board. Current situation The GBP/USD pair continued with the recovery on Thursday. The price had been growing the second session in a row. Buyers were able to lead the price upwards through 1.3000. The rally faded near the level 1.3100 where the pound had found a solid resistance. The sterling touched the bearish 50-EMA and bounced back. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope. The current resistance is seen at 1.3100, the support exists at 1.3000. MACD is in the negative territory. MACD grew which confirms the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the oversold area. Trading recommendations An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above the resistance level 1.3100. A move below the 1.3000 support would suggest a resumption of the bearish trend. Yen General overview The dollar softened against the yen when the American regulator made a decision to leave the rate unchanged . Current situation The price sharply fell on Wednesday and remained under pressure on Thursday. The pair found a support at 100.40 where the downward pressure eased and the dollar was able to recover. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning downwards. The resistance is at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40. MACD is in the negative area. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is within the neutral territory. Trading recommendations If the price breaks the 100.40 level the next target for this pair will be the support level 99.50. We do not exclude a short-term correction towards 101.40. NZD/USD General Overview The New Zealand dollar strengthened on the back of the RBNZ decision to keep the rate on hold. However, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the door open for November rate cut. Current situation The pair maintained its bullish trend. The price grew in the Asian session, the pair set a new weekly high at 0.7370. The NZD/USD decreased during the European hours on Thursday. The price traded above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs which are pointing higher. The 50 and 100 EMAs provide a strong support for the price. The resistance is at 0.7320, the support comes in at 0.7250. MACD is in the positive area. MACD grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is approaching overbought area. Trading recommendations The price may continue its uptrend. The level 0.7400 is the first buyers’ target. A decline below 0.7320 could indicate a start of a reversal in the uptrend. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices strengthened amid a weak dollar. The dollar softened when the Fed held off on raising interest rates. Current situation Metal had a positive day and closed the day in green figures. Buyers broke the resistance 1330 dollar per ounce overnight. The growth slowed down and the price traded above 1330 on Thursday. The instrument headed away from the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning upwards in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1340, the support comes in at 1330 dollar per ounce. MACD is positive. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is approaching overbought area Trading recommendations The XAU/USD pair might extend its growth towards 1340. In the event that the sellers manage to force the below 1330 the metal may decrease towards 1320 dollar per ounce. Brent General overview The draw in the U.S. crude supplies supported Brent futures which have been growing for the third week in a row. Current situation Technically, the short term picture is modestly bullish. The price extended its growth above the level 46.50 on Thursday. Brent is currently struggling with 47.50 to grow further. The instrument touched the 200-EMA and left below the 50 and 100 EMAs. The 200-EMA is pointing higher, the 100 and 50 EMAs are heading lower. The resistance is at 48.50, the support comes in at 47.50 dollars per barrel. MACD entered the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is approaching overbought area. Trading recommendations As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving upwards towards the level at 47.50 dollars per barrel. A short-term roll back towards 46.50 is also possible. DAX General overview European stocks extended their growth on Thursday after the Fed’s expected decision to put the rates on hold. Current situation DAX looks very bullish now. The price continued to advance north during the course of trades on Thursday. The index is approaching the resistance level 10700. The DAX index headed away from the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs are heading lower, the 200-EMA kept advancing north. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10520. MACD entered the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is approaching the overbought area. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remains bullish. A break above 10700 would open the way to 10900. DAX may slightly roll back in the Asian session to presume its growth on Friday. NASDAQ General overview Wall Street opened higher after the Federal Reserve decision not to cut the rates in September. Current situation Bulls seem to have returned in the game. The index has been climbing upwards the second day in a roll. The price broke the level 4865 and slowed down. The 50-EMA is turning upwards. The 100 and 200 EMAs are neutral. The resistance is seen at 4900, the support is at 4865. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is in the overbought area Trading recommendations Technically, the short term picture is modestly bullish. A clear strength above the 4865 will pave way for a continuation of the NASDAQ upward trajectory towards 4900. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted September 25, 2016 Author Share Posted September 25, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 26.09.2016 Euro General overview Germany published positive Manufacturing PMI from Markit on Friday. Despite the positive data the figures did not impact the pair. Current situation The near-term outlook is mixed for the pair. The EUR/USD consolidated its gains at 1.1200 during the European session on Friday. The euro rebounded from the level 1.1200 at the start of the American session. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are still neutral. The resistance is seen at 1.1250, the support stands at 1.1100. MACD remains within the positive territory. RSI is consolidating near the overbought area. Trading recommendations A bullish continuation through 1.1250 should lead to a continued growth, with 1.3000 as the first probable target. A move below 1.1200 should send the price towards 1.1150. Pound General overview The dollar strengthened against the pound on Friday. However, its growth is limited as the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged keeps weighing on the dollar. Current situation Cable remained under pressure on Friday. Its attempt to recover met a bearish resistance at 1.3100 where the price reversed and moved south. The price broke the level 1.3000 on its way downwards. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs accelerated their declines. All moving averages kept heading lower. The current resistance is seen at 1.3000, the support exists at 1.2900. MACD is in the negative territory. RSI approached the oversold area. Trading recommendations All eyes are right now at the mark 1.2950. A cut through here will turn attention to the 1.2900 level. On the other side, buyers will try to break the mark 1.3050. If they succeed the price will trend towards 1.3100. Yen General overview The USD/JPY recovered on the news that the BoJ could interfere. Bedsides, the yen was in demand as stocks were cautious after the recent Fed and BoJ’s statements and preferred safe-assets. Current situation The price traded close to the level 101.40 on Friday. The USD/JPY slightly retreated from the recent high and moved down. The price touched the 50-EMA and bounced from it in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope. The resistance is at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is close to the oversold area. Trading recommendations A strong breakdown and close below 100.40 could send prices lower towards 99.50. However, the instrument is oversold and we do not exclude a correction towards 101.40. USD/CAD General Overview Commodity currencies are under pressure due to oil prices decrease and dollar strengthening. Current situation The pair continued with a recovery on Friday. The price bounced from the weekly low at 1.3000 and moved north towards 1.3200. However, the growing momentum faded around 1.3150. The price stopped growing and began consolidating its gains. The USD/CAD pair broke the 50, 100 and 200 Day EMAs on its way upwards. The 50-EMA acts as a support for the price now. The moving averages are neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1.3200, the support comes in at 1.3100. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI approached the overbought area. Trading recommendations Despite the recent growth the pair is under pressure. If buyers have strength they will lead the price towards 1.3200. In the event that the sellers manage to force the below 1.3100 the price will trend towards 1.3000. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices retreated from the recent high after a sharp rally the day before. The expected Fed’s decision to put rates on hold supported the metal. Current situation The price spent the day in a consolidation close to the recent high at 1340. Traders closed their long positions after a rally. The XAU/USD is still in green figures. The metal remained above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning upwards. The resistance is at 1340, the support comes in at 1330 dollar per ounce. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is within the overbought area. Trading recommendations If the price makes another attempt and this time breaks above the 1340 resistance area then we could see its further growth towards 1350. If traders keep cutting long positions the price may roll back towards 1330. Brent General overview Brent fell at close of Friday trade. Oil prices weakened when it became known that Saudi Arabia did not expect the world leading crude exporters to reach an agreement at the meeting in Algeria. Current situation Oil prices enjoyed a mixed session of Friday. The price fell in the Asian session, and then turned around in the European one. Brent almost reached the level 48.50 when it again reversed and sharply fell through 47.50 and 46.50. Prices stopped close to the support 45.30. Crude oil bounced from the 200-EMA and fell below the 50 and 100 EMAs which headed south. The resistance is at 46.50, the support comes in at 45.30 dollars per barrel. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is approaching overbought area. Trading recommendations The next target for Brent might be the support level of 45.30. The second target lies at 44.30. DAX General overview European stocks decreased despite the positive statistics in Germany and France. Current situation DAX retreated from the level 10700 on Friday. This was a technical rebound as traders were cutting their long positions to fixate their gains. The price approached the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA broke the 100 and 200-EMAs downwards. The 100 and 200 EMAs are moving upwards, the 50-EMA is still heading south. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10520. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the overbought territory. Trading recommendations DAX my extend its correction and approach the level 10520. If the level holds the index will bounce upwards towards 10700. Should the price break the level 10520 downwards and sellers will push it towards the 10400 – 10350 region. S&P500 General overview The Oil & Gas and Industrials sectors losses weighed on the American stocks on Friday. Current situation The index erased its previous gains and retreated from the weekly high at 2172. The price broke the level 2165 on its way down and headed towards 2150. S&P500 bounced from the 200-EMA and moved downwards. The price broke the 100-EMA and is approaching the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA is neutral, the 50 and 100 EMAs are pointing lower. The resistance is seen at 2165, the support is at 2150. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the overbought territory. Trading recommendations We are looking for the 2150 support break and then continuation of a fall with a further target at 2140. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted September 26, 2016 Author Share Posted September 26, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 27.09.2016 Euro General overview The euro strengthened on the back of the strong Germany statistics. The euro/dollar stayed in a narrow range amid a risk aversion on Monday. Current situation The euro preserved its positive near-term tone on Monday. The pair kept recovering after bouncing from the level 1.1200. The price approached the 1.1250 level in the middle of the European trades and broke it at the start of the North American session. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are still neutral. All lines act as a support for the quotes. The resistance is seen at 1.1300, the support stands at 1.1250. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI approached the overbought area. Trading recommendations A clear break above the level 1.1250 will indicate growing buyers’ strength. Buyers will lead the price towards the closest resistance at 1.1300. Pound General overview The dollar remained under pressure against its major rivals as stocks kept digesting the latest Fed’s decision. Moreover, traders were cautious ahead of U.S. Presidential Debates. Current situation The downward pressure persisted on Monday. The GBP/USD pair erased all its Friday’s gains and sharply fell from the local high towards the next support at 1.2900. The price stuck in post-Brexit short-term consolidation. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained its bearish slope and extended their declines in the 4 hours chart. The current resistance is seen at 1.3000, the support exists at 1.2900. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI consolidated within the negative territory. Trading recommendations If the pressure persists the GBP/USD may extend its downward trajectory. The nearest target remains the support level 1.2900, the second target is at 1.2800. Yen General overview The yen strengthened as a safe asset amid a risk aversion. The BoJ chief Kuroda's words that the regulator was ready to implement additional measures to boost inflation failed to limit the growth of the yen. Current situation The risk-off sentiment supported the demand for the yen. The price slid downwards from the Asian high at 101.00 towards the immediate support at 100.40 where the downward pressure faded. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs accelerated their declines. All moving averages keep heading lower in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40. The indicators continued heading south within negative territory. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI remained above the oversold area. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remained bearish. A close below 100.40 will trigger losses to the 100.00 level. If the support holds the USD/JPY may bounce towards 101.40. AUD/USD General Overview The Aussie was neutral against the U.S. dollar on Monday despite the recent pressure after oil prices decrease. Current situation AUD/USD tested the support of the price channel in the 4-hours chart during the Asian trades on Monday. After testing the channel lower boundary the price bounced upwards and headed towards 0.7650. The 4 hours chart shows that the 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards. The 100-EMA is crossing the 200-EMA in the same chart. All moving averages headed north. The resistance is at 0.7650, the support comes in at 0.7600. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The indicator still gives a buy signal. RSI remained neutral. Trading recommendations As long as the level 0.7600 holds the price is expected to trend upwards. The level 0.7650 is the first buyers’ target. A strong breakdown and close below 0.7600 could send prices lower towards 0.7540. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices showed mixed trades on Monday. Traders took wait-and-see mode before Presidential debates between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Current situation Gold prices traded mixed on Monday. The quotes stayed in a tight range between 1332 and 1340 dollar per ounce. After rolling back the price again tried to overcome 1340. However, the pair got under selling pressure on any up-move towards the mark. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages direction is upwards. The resistance is at 1340, the support comes in at 1330 dollar per ounce. MACD is in the positive area. RSI consolidated close to the overbought area. Trading recommendations If the price overcomes 1340 dollar per ounce we will neutralize our medium term negative outlook. Once we break above the 1340 level, we think that the 1350 level will be next. Brent General overview Oil prices recovered on Monday after last week decrease. Investors are weighing up the possibility of a potential coordinated output freeze agreement among the OPEC members. Current situation Oil prices remained within a descending channel. A bearish tone prevailed in the 4 hours chart. Brent spent the Asian session in a tight range between 45.80 and 46.50. The price got under buying pressure in European trade on Monday. However, the bullish spike faded at the mark 47.00. The quotes are in-between the bearish 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA is moving higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI remained within neutral territory. Trading recommendations Brent might extend its recovery towards 47.50. A break above 47.50 would open the way to 48.00. In the event that the sellers manage to force the below 46.50 the quotes will dip towards 45.30. DAX General overview European stocks opened lower on Monday as financial and energy-related stocks weighed on the shares. Current situation The index gapped downwards from 10587 to 10576 in the Asian session on Monday. The price maintained its bearish tone during the European hours. DAX moved towards the immediate support at 10350 at the open of the North American session. The price broke through the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart and advanced from them. The 50-EMA direction is downwards, the 100 and 200 EMAs are heading north. The resistance is seen at 10520, the support is at 10350. MACD decreased which indicates the strength of sellers. RSI moved towards the oversold area. Trading recommendations The 10350 level remains the key support area to watch for. A clear break below the level will trigger the next leg of move for the index. The level 10250 is the next sellers' target. We do not exclude a correction towards 10450. NASDAQ General overview Wall Street opened lower on Monday on the back of the first debate between U.S. presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Current situation The index got under selling pressure from the very beginning of the day. Sellers pushed the price towards the 4800 region through 4835. The 50-EMA stopped the downward movement. The 50-EMA accelerated its growth. The 100 and 200 EMAs maintained its moderate bullish slope. The resistance is seen at 4835, the support is at 4800. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI reached the oversold area. Trading recommendations We expect a short-term correction and a continuation of the downward momentum. The level 4800 is the next sellers’ target. In case of a recovery the price will grow towards 4850. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted September 27, 2016 Author Share Posted September 27, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 28.09.2016 Euro General overview The EUR/USD traded neutral on Monday as the market sentiment improved after the Presidential debates in the USA. The dollar is still recovering after the Fed decision to leave the rate unchanged. Current situation The price broke the resistance 1.1250 and headed north in the European session on Tuesday. However, the upward momentum shortly faded and the quotes returned into the familiar range below 1.1250. Sellers pushed the price lower towards 1.1200 at the start of the North American session. The pair is approaching the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs present a moderately bullish slope. The resistance is seen at 1.1250, the support stands at 1.1200. MACD decreased. RSI is drifting away from the overbought area. Trading recommendations A break above the immediate resistance will trigger the next leg of an upward move for the pair. The main buyers' goals are the marks at 1.1280 and 1.1300. We cannot rule out the chance that the EUR/USD pair will fall to 1.1200. Should the EUR/USD overcome the level and sellers will lead the price to 1.1150. Pound General overview The pound is under pressure due to oil prices decrease. Current situation The buying interest was short-lived and faded a few pips above 1.3200. The price sharply fell from the session high, returned below the level and remained flat between 1.3200 and 1.2940 during the day. The GBP/USD pair is well below the moving averages. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their decline. The current resistance is seen at 1.3000, the support exists at 1.2900. MACD is in the negative territory. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is within the neutral territory. The oscillator is heading south. Trading recommendations If the GBP/USD pair remains within the negative territory sellers will make another attempt to break below 1.2900. Meanwhile, we prefer to stay neutral for now. We expect further sideways trades in the coming hours. Yen General overview The yen strengthened after Haruhiko Kuroda’s words. According to Kurodа the regulator was ready to use every available tool to achieve its 2% inflation. The Central Bank is also ready to implement additional stimulus measures if needed. Current situation After testing 100.00 support zone the price bounced off and slightly recovered. The upward momentum faded at 101.00 where the price turned around. The USD/JPY sharply fell and erased all its previous gains. The pair seems to be making another attempt to break the level 100.40. The 4 hours chart shows that the price met a selling pressure around the 50-EMA. All moving averages keep heading lower in the in the same chart. The resistance is at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is consolidating within the negative territory. Trading recommendations Our near term scenario is a consolidation above the 100.00 support zone. We expect other attempts to break the 100.00 mark. NZD/USD Current situation Last week recovery was stopped at 0.7320. The upward momentum faded and the price retreated from the session high. Now the NZD/USD seems to be heading towards the immediate support at 0.7250. The 50 and 100 EMAs provide a strong support for the pair. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are neutral. The resistance is at 0.7320, the support comes in at 0.7250. MACD is in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is within the neutral territory. The oscillator is heading south. Trading recommendations The pair is under pressure and we preserve our bearish outlook. The price has difficulties to go higher 0.7320. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the mark at 0.7220. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices traded lower on Tuesday as markets decided that Hillary Clinton won the first U.S. presidential debate on Monday. Current situation The early XAU/USD recovery stalled and the quotes got under selling pressure on Tuesday. Gold prices dropped to the level 1330 where the downward movement slowed down. The pair remained under pressure at the start of the North American session. The metal seems to be struggling with the 50-EMA to go further. The 50, 100 and 200 are moderately bullish in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1340, the support comes in at 1330 dollar per ounce. The histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is within the neutral territory. Trading recommendations We believe the pressure will persist. A break below 1330 would open the way to 1320. Brent General overview Oil prices decreased on Tuesday as hopes of an agreement among the OPEC members faded. Current situation Oil prices remained under pressure on Tuesday. A recovery attempt failed, sellers are back in town. The price dropped from the weekly high at 47.50 to 46.50 dollars per barrel. After breaking the level 46.50 Brent extended its losses towards 45.95. Crude oil prices were not able to break the 200-EMA upwards. The price turned around and fell through the 50 and 100-EMAs. The 50 and 100 EMAs are pointing lower. The 200 EMA maintained a bullish slope. The resistance is at 46.50, the support comes in at 45.30 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is heading south. Trading recommendations Brent is expected to extend its decline towards 45.30. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 44.30 could be observed further. DAX General overview European stocks traded lower on Tuesday following the news of Hillary Clinton's victory over Donald Trump in the presidential debate. Current situation DAX maintained its bearish tone on Tuesday. The price was declining the whole day and found a support around 10250 in the North American session. After touching the mark the quotes rolled back towards the nearest resistance at 10350. The 50 and 100 EMAs kept heading lower in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA direction is upwards. The resistance is seen at 10350, the support is at 10175. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI is in the oversold area Trading recommendations The price may recover to the 10450 region where the 50-EMA exists. After reaching the region the index may turn around. Conversely, DAX may make another attempt and this time break below 10250. S&P500 General overview Wall Street traded higher on Tuesday when a growth in technology sector reduced losses in energy stocks. Current situation S&P500 remained under pressure on Tuesday. The index shortly decreased and refreshed the weekly low at 2132. The price turned around after that and moved towards 2150. The quotes bounced from the 50-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs extended their decline. All moving averages are heading lower. The resistance is seen at 2150, the support is at 2140. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI is neutral. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay neutral for now. We expect further sideways trades in the coming days. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 29.09.2016 Euro General overview The euro reversed some of its losses due to concerns over the Eurozone economy state. Current situation The EUR/USD enjoyed a mixed session through trade on Wednesday. The price went back and forth around 1.1200. The euro was under pressure the first part of the day, but was able to recover at the start of the North American session. The price made an attempt to break the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The break was short-lived and the price returned above them. The moving averages are neutral. The resistance is seen at 1.1250, the support stands at 1.1200. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is neutral. Trading recommendations The short-term picture is quite mixed. The further downward movement is limited by the support 1.1200. If the EUR/USD pair makes another attempt and this time breaks below the level the price may fall towards 1.1150. The nearest bulls' target is the immediate resistance at 1.1250. Pound General overview Shafik’s dovish comments (the BOE deputy) weighed on the pound. According to the deputy more stimulus may be required in the nearest time. Besides, the regulator is ready to expand its asset purchase program if needed. Current situation The trend is objectively bearish. Sellers have the ball and do not want to give up their positions. The pair showed low volatile trades on Wednesday. The price stayed around 1.3000 waiting for new drivers. An attempt to grow was stopped by the bearish 50-EMA. The price is struggling with the 50-EMA to grow further. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their decline. The current resistance is seen at 1.3000, the support exists at 1.2900. MACD is in the negative territory. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is heading towards the overbought area. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remains bearish, for a decline towards 1.2950 support zone. A recovery towards 1.3100 is also possible. Yen General overview The dollar rose on Wednesday due to profit fixation and was supported by the positive sentiment after the election debates. Current situation The pair had a neutral day on Wednesday. The dollar made an attempt to recover which was stopped at 100.80. The price spent the day a few pips above the current support – 100.40. The 50-EMA stopped the correctional growth. The price touched the line and slightly rolled back. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs present a strong bearish slope. All moving averages kept heading lower. The resistance is at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40. MACD is in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is within the neutral territory. Trading recommendations We are looking for the 100.40 support break and then continuation of a fall with a further target at 100.00. USD/CAD Current situation The pair remains in the upward channel, close to its lower limit. However, the upward momentum seems to have run out of steam. An attempt to extend an upward trajectory appeared short-lived. The price stopped a few pips above 1.3200. The USD/CAD remained above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages accelerated their growth. The resistance is at 1.3000, the support comes in at 1.3200. MACD remained in the positive area. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The indicator still gives a buy signal. RSI is within the neutral territory. Trading recommendations The USD/CAD pair is overbought. We expect a short-term downward correction. The price may decrease towards 1.3140 where the 50-EMA resides. Conversely, the pair will extend its upward trajectory towards 1.3280 - 1.3300. XAUUSD General overview Gold futures got under pressure after the first U.S. presidential debates as demand for the safe-assets diminished. Current situation The XAU/USD pair had a negative day on Wednesday. The price remained under pressure and extended its decline. Sellers were able to push the price lower from 1326 to 1322. The downward momentum stalled above the support 1320. In the 4 hours chart the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning downwards. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1320 dollar per ounce. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI approached the oversold area Trading recommendations If the level 1320 holds gold prices may develop an upward correction. In this potential scenario we will see the price move towards 1330-1335. If this support will break, the quotes may fall that should send this market looking for the 1310 level. Brent General overview Brent prices strengthened on Wednesday on stockpile data. Investors waited for the OPEC meeting outcome. Current situation After a short consolidation during the Asian hours Brent returned to a growth. After breaking the level 46.50 the price rallied towards 47.50 dollars per barrel. However, the bullish spike appeared a short-lived and the quotes returned below 46.50. The overall picture is bearish. Brent tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs are neutral, the 200-EMA is pointing higher. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is neutral. Trading recommendations If the price consolidates above 46.50 the price may extend its recovery. The level 47.50 is the first target. A clear break above the level will open the way towards 48.50. To trigger a downward movement the quotes need to return below 46.50 dollars per barrel. DAX General overview European stocks were broadly higher on Wednesday on the back of mining and energy-related stocks strengthening. Moreover, investors waited for major oil producers’ meeting outcome. Current situation DAX was stronger on Wednesday and traded near the local high. The price extended its recovery and reached the 10520 resistance region. After reaching the level DAX slightly rolled back and erased some of its latest gains. The instrument broke the 50-EMA and tested the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs are heading lower, the 200-EMA is moving north. The resistance is seen at 10520, the support is at 10350. The histogram grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the oversold area. Trading recommendations The price is struggling with the resistance 10520 to go further. Besides, the 200-EMA stands on its way upward. The DAX index needs to break this barrier to strengthen further. Otherwise, the index will return to a decline. NASDAQ General overview Wall Street traded flat at the open of the North American session. Investors waited for Yellen’s speech and the OPEC producers’ meeting outcome. Current situation The index started its Wednesday’s trade in a flat. The price consolidated its gains after the rally the day before. NASDAQ spent the day near 4865, the quotes were moving back and forth around the level. The price is hovering above the 50-EMA. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are moving higher. The resistance is seen at 4865, the support is at 4835. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is approaching the overbought area. Trading recommendations The price may slightly pull back to 4835. If the upward pressure continues the index will grow further. The mark 4890 is the next buyers’ target. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted September 29, 2016 Author Share Posted September 29, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 30.09.2016 Euro General overview The latest U.S. statistics revived hopes for a rate hike by the Fed till the end of the year. The euro weakened on the back of the weak Unemployment Change report in Germany. Current situation The EUR/USD pair found a support around 1.1200 and traded modestly flat on Thursday. The price remained inactive between 1.1200 and 1.1230 during the European trade. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are still neutral. The resistance is seen at 1.1250, the support stands at 1.1200. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is neutral. Trading recommendations In the event that the sellers manage to force the below 1.1200 the price will move towards 1.1150. However, we consider that scenario as an alternative. We expect a further growth towards 1.1250. Pound General overview The pound weakened on Thursday despite the positive UK data. The latest Yellen’s comments supported the dollar. Current situation The pound was able to extend its recovery at the start of the day and set a daily high at 1.3050. However, the pair was not able to hold its gains and decreased back to the 1.3000 region. The sterling is struggling with the 50-EMA to grow further. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are heading lower. The current resistance is seen at 1.3100, the support exists at 1.3000. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is neutral. Trading recommendations The GBP/USD pair may recover further. The first buyers’ target is the mark 1.3060, the second 1.3100. A close below 1.3000 will trigger losses to the 1.2900 level. Yen General overview The yen weakened following the OPEC agreement to limit oil output to 32,5-33,0 million bdp. Current situation The dollar rallied during the course of trades on Thursday. The price was able to break the level 101.40, but it failed to extend its growth and retreated to the broken level. The USD/JPY is trying to consolidate its gains now. The price broke the 50 and 100-EMAs and touched the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is turning upwards, the 100 and 200 EMAs are moving lower. The resistance is at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is in the overbought territory. Trading recommendations A clear strength above the immediate resistance will pave the way for a continuation of the pair's upward trajectory. The price may grow towards 102.00. AUD/USD The U.S. dollar strengthened due to the latest Yellen’s comments and the OPEC agreement to cut oil output. Current situation The pair remained bullish on Thursday. The buyers were able to push the price towards 0.7700 and even pierced the level. However, they were not able to hold their gains and the price rolled back towards 0.7650. The AUD/USD pair is hovering above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The resistance is at 0.7700, the support comes in at 0.7650. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is within the neutral territory. Trading recommendations If the AUD/USD breaks 0.7650 the price will decrease to 0.7600. Otherwise, the pair will return to 0.7700. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices got under pressure on Thursday ahead of the Fed officials’ comments. The positive GDP and labour data weighed on the metal as well. Current situation The yellow metal continued to trade in the negative ground. The price retreated from the recent high and headed towards 1310. The XAU/USD broke the level 1320 on its way downwards. The price broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are turning downwards. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1320 dollar per ounce. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is approaching the oversold area. Trading recommendations This loss of the 1320 level is now pointing to a further period of downside to come. Sellers will lead the price to 1310. Brent General overview Brent rose in the European session after a surprised OPEC decision to cut oil output. Moreover, a draw in U.S. crude stocks gave an additional support for oil prices. Current situation Brent futures consolidated their gains after a sharp rally the day before. The price traded around 48.50 dollars per barrel moving back and forth around the level. Oil prices broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA is neutral, while the 50 and 200 EMAs are turning upwards. The 200-EMA acts as a support for the price. The resistance is at 49.50, the support comes in at 48.50 dollars per barrel. MACD grew which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is consolidating within the overbought area. Trading recommendations Brent may extend its growth towards 49.50 dollars per barrel. DAX General overview European stocks, including DAX, rallied after the OPEC decision to freeze oil output. However, negative employment data in Germany weighed on the DAX index. Current situation DAX gapped higher in the Asian session on Thursday. The price extended its gains during the European hours. The index was able to set a weekly high at 10574. After setting a new high the price partly retreated below the 10520 level. A break above the 100 and 200 EMAs failed, the price returned below them. DAX is in-between the 50 and 200 EMAs. The 100 and 200 EMAs are neutral, the 50-EMA is turning upwards. The resistance is seen at 10520, the support is at 10350. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI is neutral. Trading recommendations The level 10520 stopped the upward momentum. A cut through here will aim markets at 10574. S&P500 General overview Wall Street opened lower on Thursday amid oil prices decrease. Besides, investors were cautious ahead of Janet Yellen's speech. Current situation The index almost recovered after losses it had suffered last week. The price rallied to the level 2165 during the Asian session. After breaking the level S&P500 gave up its latest gains and retreated to the 2157 region. The 200-EMA stopped the growth of the index. The price bounced off the line and returned to the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200 EMAs are heading lower. The 50-EMA is turning upwards. The resistance is seen at 2165, the support is at 2150. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is within the positive territory. Trading recommendations The S&P500 index found a support around 2156. If this mark holds the price will continue growing. Our first target is the level 2165, further out the mark 2170. A move below the mark will target sellers to 2150. After breaking the level the price may decrease to 2145. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 2, 2016 Author Share Posted October 2, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 03.10.2016 Euro General overview The dollar fell from a weekly high despite the positive U.S economic releases. The euro weakened amid European bank problems. Particularly, investors concerned about the health of Deutsche Bank. Current situation The pair jumped from 1-week low and returned back above the 1.1200 level. The level 1.1250 stopped the rally, the price rolled back and closed the day a few pips below the level. The moving averages maintained neutral tone. The resistance is seen at 1.1250, the support stands at 1.1200. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI bounced from the oversold area. Trading recommendations The market switched the tone to bullish. A break above 1.1250 might force the pair to resume its upward trajectory. After breaking the level the EUR/USD pair may trend towards 1.1280. Pound General overview The pound strengthened against the dollar on the back of strong UK economic reports. Current situation The sterling remained under pressure on Friday. An attempt to grow was stopped above 1.3000. Buyers were not able to hold above the level and had to return below it. The price failed to break the 50-EMA and after a short period returned below it. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs accelerated their decline. The current resistance is seen at 1.3000, the support exists at 1.2900. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is consolidating within the oversold area. Trading recommendations The level 1.2950 limits further decline of the pair. A close below the level will trigger losses towards 1.2900. After breaking the level the price will advance to 1.2800. Yen General overview The yen weakened after the OPEC decision to reduce oil output. Moreover, the China manufacturing PMI, which came in as expected, weighed on the safe-haven yen. Current situation The bearish trend remained intact. The yen erased its latest gains on Friday, but closed the day in the green. A bullish spike faded around 101.70 and the price had to return below 101.40. The USD/JPY broke the 100-EMA and tested the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. However, buyers failed to hold above the 200-EMA and the price rolled back. The resistance is at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is within the overbought territory. Trading recommendations The bearish trend remained intact. All buyers attempt to raise the price were unsuccessful. The price will remain in a range between 101.40 and 100.40 waiting for new drivers. NZD/USD Concerns over Deutsche Bank make investors stay away from safe-heaven assets. Instead they preferred higher-yielding currencies – like Kiwi. Current situation The NZD/USD pair had a positive day on Friday. The price recovered from the weekly low at 0.7230 and headed above 0.7250 where it closed the day. The pair broke upwards the neutral moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 0.7320, the support comes in at 0.7250. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI bounced from the oversold area. Trading recommendations Despite a recovery on Friday the overall tone is negative. The price remained in a descending channel which risks a further decline towards 0.7250 and 0.7220. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices fell on Friday despite the growth of demand for safe-assets due to the banking problems in Europe. Current situation Gold was recovering during the European hours, but sharply fell at the beginning of the New York session. The price fell from the daily high at 1327 towards 1310 through 1320. The XAU/USD pair closed the day bearish. In the 4 hours chart gold quotes broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs. The moving averages are turning lower in the same chart. The resistance is at 1320, the support comes in at 1310 dollar per ounce. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is heading south. Trading recommendations If the price maintains its bearish tone a break below 1310 should lead to a continued slide, with 1305 as the first probable target. Brent General overview Brent fell due to profit taking amid concerns that the OPEC’s agreement will not weaken a global supply glut. The US rigs number increased which also pressured oil quotes on both sides of the Atlantic. Current situation Brent stalled two-day rally and fell back into negative territory. The price made an attempt to extend its recovery in the European session on Friday. However, it turned around and reversed its latest gains in the North American session. Crude oil prices remained above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200 EMAs kept heading higher, the bearish 50-EMA is turning upwards. The resistance is at 49.50, the support comes in at 48.50 dollars per barrel. The MACD histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is approaching the overbought area. Trading recommendations The tone is still positive in the market. However, Brent is overbought and could conduct a rebound towards 48.50. DAX General overview DAX strengthened fallowing the news about possible agreement between Deutsche Bank and the U.S. Department of Justice. Current situation DAX gapped lower at the start of Friday. However, the price turned around and jumped to weekly highs later the day. The index climbed back into the 10520 region. The prices broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100 and 200 EMAs on its way upwards. In the 4 hours chart the moving averages showed mixed directions. The 50 and 100 Day EMAs are pointing lower, the 200-EMA maintained its bullish slope. The resistance is seen at 10520, the support is at 10350. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI bounced from negative territory. Trading recommendations Despite the rally on Friday DAX remained in a descending channel. The price closed the week at its higher limit. The index may conduct a technical rebound towards 10350. If the growing pressure persists the quotes will extend its recovery. Alternatively, the DAX index will continue its downward momentum. NASDAQ General overview The Oil & Gas and Consumer Services sectors positive data supported the U.S. stocks on Friday. Current situation Bulls fought back control and returned prices to the local high. NASDAQ rallied and closed the day in the green figures above 4865. The index bounced from the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200 EMAs present a moderately bullish slope. The 50-EMA accelerated its growth. The resistance is seen at 4865, the support is at 2150. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI approached the overbought area. Trading recommendations The bullish tone prevails in the market. The price may dip to 4800 to bounce back upwards. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 04.10.2016 Euro General overview The dollar strengthened amid renewed optimism regarding Deutsсhe Bank. Current situation Technically, the price maintained its bearish tone. The euro was low volatile during the European hours on Monday. The EUR/USD remained below 1.1250 and kept its range-trade intact during the course of trade. The price decreased in the NY session. The price hovered above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages provide a strong support for the main currency pair. The resistance comes in at 1.1250, the support stands at 1.1200. MACD is in the positive area. RSI remained within the neutral territory on Monday. Trading recommendations The level 1.1200 remains the key support area to watch for. A clear break below will open the way towards 1.1150. Pound General overview The pound decreased on Monday despite the positive Manufacturing PMI. The report did not convince investors in a growing strength of the UK economy after the Brexit. Theresa May (Britain's Prime Minister) set the final date for the Brexit which weighed on the pound as well. Current situation The GBP/USD gapped downwards in the Asian session on Monday. The price continued moving south during the European trade. The pair broke 1.2900 and began consolidating its gains. The 4 hours chart shows that the price is below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs. The moving averages keep heading lower. The current resistance is seen at 1.2900, the support exists at 1.2800. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI approached the oversold area. Trading recommendations The loss of the 1.2900 level is now pointing to a further period of downside to come. The next sellers' target is the level 1.2800. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.2700 is possible. Yen General overview The yen was neutral on Monday despite the strong Tankan release. Markets ignored the report, awaiting for the U.S. Manufacturing PMI later this day. Current situation The USD/JPY pair remained neutral on Monday. The dollar looked firm against the yen. The price traded in a narrow range between 101.10 – 101.60 during the European trade hours. The pair started a consolidation phase after a strong rebound from the 3-month support line – 100.06. The USD/JPY was sandwiched between the 100 and 200 EMAs which provide an immediate support and resistance. The moving averages are slowing down in the 4 hours chart. The resistance can be found at 101.40, the support comes in at 100.40. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is close to the overbought area. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay neutral for now. We expect further sideways trades in the coming days. USD/CAD General overview The upbeat sentiment around oil prices supported the commodity currencies, including loonie . Current situation Bears tried to return control over the market. The pair was neutral during the Asian hours and got under selling pressure in the European session. Sellers were able to break the 1.3100 level, but failed to stay there. The price bounced from the 1.3070 mark. The price bounced upwards from the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The USD/CAD pair broke the 100-EMA and tested the 50-EMA in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.3200, the support stands at 1.3100. MACD remained at the same levels which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is within the neutral territory. Trading recommendations The USD/CAD still looks bullish. The price is expected to grow further towards 1.3200 soon. Should the pair consolidate below 1.3040 and sellers will push the price towards 1.2900. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices remained intact on Monday even though the fears regarding a Deutsche Bank collapse eased. Current situation Gold was steady on Monday after last Friday’s sharp decrease. The pair traded around the recent lows close to the 1310 level. Gold prices are below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs which are all pointing lower. The resistance is at 1320, the support comes in at 1310 dollar per ounce. MACD remained negative. RSI is in the overvalued territory. Trading recommendations The pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 1310. A close below the level will trigger losses to the 1305 mark. A break above 1320 could cheer up buyers and would open the way to the 1327-1330 region. Brent General overview Oil grew on Monday amid risk appetite growth. OPEC’s plans to cut production support on both sides of the Atlantic. Current situation Oil prices remained under buying pressure on Monday. Despite the gap downwards at the open of the Asian session, the price turned around and extended last week growth. Brent approached the August high that was posted on the 19th August. The price remained well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA accelerated its growth and crossed the 100-EMA upwards. All moving averages are trending higher. The resistance is at 50.50, the support comes in at 49.50 dollars per barrel. MACD is positive. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is in the overbought area. Trading recommendations We expect a correction which may last a few days to ease the current overbought scenario. Oil may return below 49.50 to the 48.50 region. DAX General overview European stocks were neutral on Monday as a threat of a Deutsche Bank collapse decreased. Germany stocks were closed due to "Day of German Unity" celebration. Current situation The index remained at last week highs due to the day off. The 200-EMA stopped the DAX further growth. The 100 and 200 EMAs provide a strong resistance for the price. The 50 and 100 Day EMAs are pointing lower, while the 200-EMA kept heading north. The resistance is seen at 10520, the support is at 10350. The MACD and RSI indicators did not change since Friday. Trading recommendations After last week sharp spike the price is expected to roll back. We expect a correction towards 10350. S&P500 General overview Wall Street opened in the red territory on Monday when healthcare and consumer sectors led the shares down. Current situation The index decisively traded below the 2165 mark on Monday. The price retreated from last week high and partly erased latest gains during European trade. S&P500 continued moving lower at the beginning of the New York session. The price bounced from the 200-EMA and rolled back towards the 100-EMA. In the 4 hours chart the 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope, the 50-EMA pointed higher. The resistance is seen at 2165, the support is at 2150. MACD decreased which points the buyers’ weakness. RSI remained neutral. Trading recommendations Bears seem to have returned in the game. The upward movement is out of steam, sellers shall lead the price towards 2140 through 2150. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 4, 2016 Author Share Posted October 4, 2016 Dear forum users! We would like to draw your attention that the registration for the "Money never sleeps" contest held by FortFS and the prize fund of 25 000 USD continues. The contest's terms and conditions can be found here "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 05.10.2016 Euro General overview The dollar strengthened across the board amid renewed speculation that the Fed may raise rates this year. Current situation The single European currency failed to regain the resistance 1.1250 and had a sharp drop below the mentioned level on Tuesday. The price fell towards 1.1150 where sellers ran out of steam, the EUR/USD pair slowed down its decline and rolled back to the 1.1170 region. The euro broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs downwards in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are fallowing the price downwards. The resistance comes in at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1150. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is approaching the oversold area. Trading recommendations The price will struggle with the 1.1150 level to go further. Once we break below the current support, we think that the 1.11 level will be next. Any rebound above the level 1.1150 we consider corrective. Pound General overview The pound hit 31-year low against the dollar despite positive U.K. Construction PMI on hard Brexit fears. Current situation The GBP/USD maintained its negative tone in the market. The pound dipped lower and refreshed three-decade lows. The sterling broke the support level 1.2800 and declined further, approaching the next level – 1.2700. In the 4 hours chart, the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs extended their decline. The current resistance is seen at 1.2800, the support exists at 1.2700. MACD is in the negative area. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold area. Trading recommendations Bears have the ball now. We are looking for the current support break and then continuation of a fall with a further target at 1.2600. The price may correct towards the 1.2850 region. After rolling back sellers may try again to break the immediate barrier. Yen General overview The yen fell amid risk-appetite growth. Moreover, investors doubt that the BoJ will reach the targeted 2% inflation in the nearest term. Current situation The neutral tone switched to the bullish one. The pair continued to advance north and was able to test the level 102.50 at the start of NY session. The USD/JPY advanced north away from the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are following the price and are turning upwards. The resistance can be found at 102.50, the support comes in at 101.40. MACD grew which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is in the overbought area. Trading recommendations A consolidation above 102.50 will indicate a start of a bullish phase. We expect further moving upwards as long as the support 101.40 remains intact. AUD/USD General overview The Aussie softened when the RBA the left the rate unchanged on Tuesday. Current situation The AUD/USD retreated from the 3-day highs on Tuesday. The overall outlook remains bullish and the current pullback is seen as consolidation. The price is approaching the level 0.7650. The moving averages kept heading higher in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 0.7700, the support stands at 0.7650. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI remained within the overbought area. Trading recommendations A bullish continuation through 0.7700 should lead to a continued slide, with 0.7750 as the first probable target. A close below 0.7650 could extend the current weakening towards 0.7630. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices decreased on Tuesday as optimistic U.S. data kept weighing on the metal. Current situation Gold switched the neutral tone to the bearish one. The XAU/USD extended its weakness on Tuesday. After consolidation during the Asian session the price sharply fell below 1310 dollar per ounce and advanced towards 1280. The pair broke the 1300 and 1290 levels on its way downwards. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs accelerated their decline in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1300, the support comes in at 1290 dollar per ounce. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold territory. Trading recommendations A strong breakdown and close below 1290 dollar per ounce could send prices lower towards 1280. However, the instrument is oversold and we do not exclude a roll back towards 1305. Brent General overview Brent eased on the news that Iran reached the pre-sanction oil production. Next in focus would be API report in the late North American session on Tuesday. Current situation Oil prices traded close to the monthly highs on Tuesday. Brent remained in an ascending channel. Oil futures grew and refreshed weekly high at 51.25 during the course of the day. The 50-EMA accelerated its growth and crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are pointing higher. The resistance is at 51.50, the support comes in at 50.50 dollars per barrel. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI approached the overvalued territory. Trading recommendations If buyers fail to hold over 50.50 oil prices will decline to 49.50. A break above 51.50 would open the way to 52.50. DAX General overview European stocks opened higher on Tuesday. DAX grew as Deutsche Bank shares continued their recovery after receiving support from its major clients and some rivals. Current situation The DAX index continued with its recovery on Tuesday. The price moved from the level 10520 towards the nearest resistance at 10700. DAX broke the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards and headed away from them. The 50-EMA is turning upwards, the 100 and 200 EMAs are neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10520. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is approaching the overbought area. Trading recommendations The overall picture is bullish now. We assume the price will keep growing towards 10700. NASDAQ General overview Wall Street opened the day positively on the back of the technology sector growth. Investors still evaluate the possibilities of an eventual Fed rate-hike in the coming months. Current situation The index traded in an upward channel. The price moved upwards from its lower boundary. NASDAQ could escalate to 4888 and broke above previous day’s top. The price moved away from the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance is seen at 4900, the support is at 4865. MACD remained in the positive area. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is approaching the overbought area. Trading recommendations The NASDAQ index traded in the green on Tuesday. If the upward pressure persists the index might extend its growth towards 4900. Should the index get below 4865 and the price could ease to 4835. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 5, 2016 Author Share Posted October 5, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 06.10.2016 Euro General overview The euro strengthened and approached Tuesday’s high on Wednesday. There were no many macroeconomic releases in the EU. Investors’ attention now turns to the possible ECB's quantitative easing plans tapering. Current situation In the medium term, the outlook is neutral. The EUR/USD rebounded from the 1.1150 level. The rally stopped at 1.1230, the price was in a consolidative range above 1.1200 during the European hours. The ongoing recovery could also be attributed to some profit taking from sellers after a sharp decrease on Monday. The pair moved down ahead of the US opening. The moving averages are neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance comes in at 1.1250, the support stands at 1.1200. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI is heading south. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay neutral ahead of Non-Farm report. Technically the downtrend remained intact. As the most probable scenario, we expect a slow decrease below 1.1200. Pound General overview The pound remained under pressure as the ongoing concerns of 'hard Brexit' kept weighing on market sentiment. Current situation The GBP/USD fell to its lowest level in more than 30 years and keeps falling now. The downtrend stalled at 1.2700 on Wednesday. The market was inactive after nearly five-day decrease. Sellers consolidated its gains and held the price at the current lows. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope. The current resistance is seen at 1.2800, the support lies at 1.2700. MACD is in the negative area. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold area. Trading recommendations The GBP/USD may recover to reverse some of its losses. The pound could grow to 1.2840. Our near-term outlook is bearish. We expect the price to decline further. Yen General overview The dollar remained close to 2-month high due to hawkish Fed officials’ comments. Current situation Technically, the main trend is up. The USD/JPY closed bullish on Tuesday and extended its strength on Wednesday. The dollar continued moving higher and refreshed the current high at 103.20. In the 4 hours chart the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are following the price upwards. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA upwards and is approaching the 200-EMA in the same chart. The resistance can be found at 103.50, the support comes in at 102.50. MACD grew which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is in the overbought area. Trading recommendations We feel comfortable taking a short-term long position. Bulls will definitely try to test the 103.50 resistance. The pair is overbought and we do not exclude its correction below 102.50. NZD/USD General overview Weak dairy auction products together with risk-aversion on the back of the bonds yields growth weighed on the kiwi. Current situation The bearish trend remained intact on Wednesday. The price kept battling with the 0.7165 mark to decline further. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning downwards. The 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA downwards in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 0.7200, the support stands at 0.7120. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold area. Trading recommendations A bearish tone prevails in the 4 hours chart. The loss of the 0.7200 level is now pointing to a further period of downside to come. Sellers will try to lead the price to 0.7120. Alternatively, the NZD/USD pair may try to regain the level 0.7200. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 0.7230 is possible. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices bounced from the 3-month low on expectations over the Fed's next monetary policy action in December. Current situation Gold prices remained in the red territory on Wednesday. Sellers consolidated their gains after a sharp drop on Tuesday. The yellow metal spent the day around 1270 dollar per ounce. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs turned down in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1280, the support comes in at 1270 dollar per ounce. MACD is negative. RSI is in the oversold territory. Trading recommendations The level 1270 limited the further decline of the metal. A cut through here will aim at the 1260 level. If the current support rejects the price the XAU/USD will grow towards 1290 dollar per ounce. Brent General overview Oil prices grew following the API report which showed that the US crude inventories dropped by 7.6 million barrels last week. Current situation Technically, the short term picture is modestly bullish. Oil prices kept growing after a brief consolidative phase during the Asian hours. Brent was able to break 51.50 ahead of the US opening. The 50-EMA accelerated its growth. The 50-EMA broke the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is in the overbought area. Trading recommendations Oil prices paused awaiting for EIA data ahead of NY trading session. A growth in inventories will weigh on Brent prices. On the other hand, its decrease will push the price higher. DAX General overview European stocked opened neutral due to concerns over the ECB’ annotative program tapering. Current situation DAX traded sideways on Wednesday. The index traded within a tight range between 10600 and 10520. The DAX index got under selling pressure on any up-move towards 10700. The price spent the day around the 200-EMA which acts as a support for the index. The 50 and 100 EMAs crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 200-EMA is pointing higher, the 100-EMA direction is downwards, the 50-EMA is turning upwards. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10520. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is consolidating within the overbought area. Trading recommendations The index is trying to break above 10600 upwards. A clear strength above this mark will pave way for continuation of the index’s upward trajectory towards 10700. S&P500 General overview Wall Street opened higher on Wednesday on the back of the energy sector strengthening due to the oil prices growth. Current situation The index reversed some of its Tuesday’s losses when rebounded from the level 2140. The price grew to the nearest resistance where the upward momentum faded. The overall picture remained bearish. The price grew to the 100-EMA which stopped its further growth. The 50 and 100 EMAs act provide a strong resistance for the S&P500. The resistance is seen at 2150, the support is at 2140. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is within the neutral area. The oscillator is slowly decreasing. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remains bearish, for a decline towards 2140. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 6, 2016 Author Share Posted October 6, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 07.10.2016 Euro General overview The euro decreased despite strong Factory Orders in Germany. Erkki Liikanen's comments weighed on the single European currency. According to Liikanen low interest rates and aggressive bond buying are necessary to support the Eurozone’s economy. Current situation The market was quite this Thursday. The euro kept on declining after a sharp growth at the start of the week. The price traded lower 1.1200 towards 1.1150 during the European session. The EUR/USD pair broke the moving averages downwards in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are neutral. The resistance comes in at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1150. MACD is in the negative area. RSI is approaching the negative territory. Trading recommendations The pair will remain under pressure until it gets new upbeat drivers. Investors’ attention now turns to the US nonfarm payrolls report. The price may dip further on the back of the stronger NFP report. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards to the levels 1.1150 and 1.1100. On the other hand, the currency pair may grow back above 1.1200. Pound General overview The pound refreshed 3-decade lows. The UK currency remains vulnerable amid Brexit-related concerns. Current situation The pair is now grossly oversold in the short term. The pound traded onto the latest lows on Thursday. The price remained in a tight range between 1.2700 - 1.2800 during the European trades. The sterling moved lower ahead of the US opening. The GBP/USD moved lower under the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages kept heading south. The current resistance is seen at 1.2700, the support lies at 1.2600. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI is in the oversold area. Trading recommendations The pound is expected to remain vulnerable due to ongoing Brexit. The GBP/USD pair is likely to decline further. The next sellers' target is the level 1.2600. After breaking the level sellers will push the price to 1.2500. Yen General overview The USD/JPY strengthened as growing expectations for a U.S. rate hike in 2016 continued to support the US dollar. Current situation The USD/JPY pair maintained its strong bid tone. The price remained in a short-term upward channel. The pair reached a key technical level – 103.50 in early Europe. After a brief consolidation the price extended its gains and moved towards 104.30. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards which is a buy signal. All moving averages moved upwards in the 4 hours chart. The resistance can be found at 103.50, the support comes in at 102.50. The MACD histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is within the overbought area. Trading recommendations The USD/JPY remains bullish with a target 104.30. The price needs to move below 102.50 to switch the tone to bearish. USD/CAD General overview The USD/CAD extended its gains on Thursday on the back of a stronger dollar. Current situation The price recovered after Wednesday’s brief decrease yesterday. Buyers pushed the price from the current low at 1.3160 towards the immediate resistance where the buying interest faded for a while. Bulls returned to the market at the beginning of the New York session and the USD/CAD continued to struggle with the level 1.3200. The USD/CAD pair remained above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1.3200, the support stands at 1.3100. The MACD histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is approaching the overbought area. Trading recommendations To trigger additional upward momentum the price needs to break above 1.3200. Once we break above the level, we think that the 1.3280 mark will be next. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices continued to lose value on Thursday as increasing expectations of a Fed’s rate hike in December, 2016 keep fuelling the demand for the dollar. Current situation Gold extended its weakness on Thursday. The yellow metal has been falling the eighth session in a row and has refreshed 4-month lows. After a short consolidation during the Asian hours the price faced a downside pressure and extended its weakness towards 1260 dollar per ounce. After breaking the support 1260 the XAU/USD trended lower towards 1250. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs accelerated their decline. All moving averages kept heading south. The resistance is at 1260, the support comes in at 1250 dollar per ounce. MACD decreased which indicates the strength of sellers. RSI remained within the negative territory. Trading recommendations Gold futures are most likely to continue to move lower. The next sellers’ targets are the supports: 1250 and 1240. Brent General overview Oil prices got additional support following Algeria's Energy Minister statements that OPEC could cut production more if needed. Current situation The bullish trend remained intact on Thursday. Brent futures accelerated their gains and moved higher to the level 51.50. Oil prices left the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs behind in the 4 hours chart. After breaking the 100 and 200 EMAs the 50-EMA accelerated its growth, the 100 and 200 EMA moderately kept growing. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI remained within the overbought area. Trading recommendations Brent prices will strengthen further towards 53.50 if the upward momentum persists. DAX General overview European stocks were neutral ahead of the U.S. unemployment release on Friday. Current situation Market’s positive mood persisted on Thursday. However, the neutral phase that started this week is still intact. DAX traded sideways, the index got under selling pressure on any up-move towards 10600. The moving averages are mixed in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA is moderately bullish, the 50-EMA accelerated its growth, the line is about to cross the 100-EMA which is heading lower. The resistance is seen at 10600, the support is at 10500. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within the positive territory. Trading recommendations An uptrend will start as soon, as the DAX index rises above the resistance level 10600. If the price moves below 10500 we will neutralize our medium term positive outlook. Sellers may push the price towards 10400. NASDAG General overview Wall Street opened lower on Thursday following the European stocks decline. The upcoming labour market report (the Non-Farm payroll release) weighs on the U.S. equities as well. Current situation The index remained in the upwards channel. NASDAQ gave up its latest gains and faced a downside pressure yesterday. Sellers were able to move the price lower from the mark 4880 below the level 4865. The downward momentum faded during NY trading session. The price found a solid support at the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are pointing higher. The resistance is seen at 4865, the support is at 4835. MACD decreased which confirms the current strength of sellers. RSI moved towards the oversold area. Trading recommendations A clear break below the 4865 support will indicate that the upward movement from 4888 is over. The following downward movement could bring prices back to the 4740 area. On the upside, as long as the level holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 9, 2016 Author Share Posted October 9, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 10.10.2016 Euro General overview The euro remained under pressure against the US dollar despite the weak Nonfarm Payrolls report. Current situation The market was neutral in the European session on Friday as investors waited for the NFP report. The euro broke the 1.1150 level and tested 1.1100 (two-month low) where it seems to have found a descent support. After testing the level 1.1150 the price rebounded and headed towards 1.1250. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning lower in the 4 hours chart. The price broke the moving averages upwards in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance comes in at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1150. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the oversold area. Trading recommendations The EUR/USD is still under pressure and remains vulnerable to further downslide in the near-term. A close below 1.1100 will extend losses towards 1.1070. We will place buy orders if we see a daily closing above 1.1200. Meanwhile, any move above 1.1100 we consider corrective. Pound General overview The pound weakened against the dollar after François Hollande’s comments who said if the UK wants hard Brexit they will get it. Current situation The pound collapsed and sharply fell during the Asian session on Friday. The sterling crashed below 1.2600 and extended its losses towards 1.1900 at night. The GBP/USD lost about 6% overnight. After a sharp fall the price returned to the 1.2400 region where it remained during the day. The moving averages kept heading lower, following the price downwards. The current resistance is seen at 1.2500, the support lies at 1.2400. MACD remained in the negative area. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI is in the oversold area which confirms the current downward movement. Trading recommendations The pair is oversold. We expect sideways trades and a recovery towards 1.2600. Yen General overview The yen strengthened amid risk aversion following the collapse of the pound. The weak NFP report weighed on the dollar and supported the yen. Current situation After refreshing the weekly high the pair was in a neutral phase during the day. The dollar almost reached the September high at 104.30, the price stopped a few pips below it. The USD/JPY pair traded within 50-pips range consolidation ahead of the U.S Non Farm Payrolls report. The dollar weakened after the report, the USD/JPY retreated from the recent highs and moved lower. The price broke the level 103.50 and moved towards 102.50. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs slowed down their growth. The moving averages are turning downwards. The resistance can be found at 103.50, the support comes in at 102.50. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved downwards. Trading recommendations The current recovery is a profit taking from bulls after one week growth. Should the price consolidate below 103.50 the pair may decline to 102.50. AUD/USD General overview Weak U.S. labor market data helped the AUD/USD pair to extend its recovery from two-week lows. Current situation Technically, the price maintained its bearish tone. The AUD/USD is in a short-term descending channel. After a 4-day decrease the price seems to have found a strong support around 0.7550 where it formed a consolidation range – 0.7550 and 0.7590. The Aussie tried to break above the moving averages, however, the 200-EMA stopped its growth. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning downwards. The resistance is at 0.7600, the support stands at 0.7540. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is within the oversold area. Trading recommendations A break above 0.7600 will extend recovery towards 0.7650. The nearest sellers' target remains the support level 0.7540. XAUUSD General overview Despite the weak US Non-farm Payrolls gold prices remained under pressure as the probability of a Fed rate-hike at the December meeting remains high. Current situation The XAU/USD pair traded in a consolidation range during the Asian and European sessions on Friday. Sellers consolidated their gains after one week decrease. The price found a support at 1250 and traded above the level during the day. Gold managed to reverse some of its losses and recovered to 1265 after the US NFP report. The price tried to regain the level but failed and faced another wave of the selling pressure. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages direction is downwards. The resistance is at 1260, the support comes in at 1250 dollar per ounce. MACD remained in the negative area. RSI indicator stayed near the oversold levels, favoring a new move lower. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay neutral for now. The price will remain in a range in the lack of new drivers. Buyers may reverse some of their losses if they push the price higher to 1270. Brent General overview Oil prices remained within green territory amid strong US inventories reports and hopes of an output deal. Current situation The price remained in an upward channel, close to its upper limit. Brent retreated from the recent highs and erased some of its losses on Friday. The price moved below 52.50 and headed towards the nearest support at 51.50. Brent futures hover over the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards. The moving averages keep moving higher. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI bounced from the overbought area. Trading recommendations Oil prices remained bullish. To keep growing the price needs to break above 52.50. A break below 50.50 would signal correction as daily studies are overbought. DAX General overview European stock traded lower on Friday due to Retail, Media and Transportation & Logistics shares weakness in Germany. Current situation DAX gapped downwards on Friday and continued moving lower during the day. The price was struggling with the level 10500 the whole day and finely broke it at close of trade. The moving averages are mixed in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 200 EMAs are moving higher. The 100-EMA is pointing south, crossing the 50-EMA downwards. The resistance is seen at 10500, the support is at 10400. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved downwards. Trading recommendations If the downward pressure persists the price will decline below 10500. Sellers will lead the index towards 10400. If the level 10500 holds DAX could escalate to 10600. S&P500 General overview Wall Street traded lower on Friday following a lightly weaker US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The latest labour data can put the Fed rate hike on hold. Current situation The index remained in sideways with a tendency to grow during the European session on Friday. However, after a disappointing U.S. labour data the index sharply fell below 2150 and tested the level 2140. S&P500 broke the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are heading lower in the same timeframe. The resistance is seen at 2150, the support is at 2140. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI moved to the negative territory. Trading recommendations A move below 2140 will strengthen sellers who will try to lead the price towards 2130. If the level 2140 holds the index can bounce upwards towards 2165. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 10, 2016 Author Share Posted October 10, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 11.10.2016 Euro General overview Japanese, Canadian and USA markets were closed. The dollar strengthened after the second U.S. Presidential debates where Mrs. Clinton emerged victorious as Mr. Trump’s reputation was damaged after a leak of a video where he insulted women. Current situation The common European currency is again under pressure. The level 1.1200 stopped its recovery, the price turned around and headed towards 1.1150. The EUR/USD is still in a descending channel, moving to its lower trend line. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs protected the level 1.1200. The price bounced from them and moved downwards in the 4 hours chart. The resistance comes in at 1.1200, the support stands at 1.1150. The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. RSI headed towards the negative levels. Trading recommendations If the downward pressure persists the EUR/USD may retest the level 1.1150. A clear break below the level will open the way towards last week low mark at 1.1100. Pound General overview The British pound is under pressure the second week in a row. The positive UK data was not able to support the sterling. Current situation The pound was inactive on Monday, trading lower after turbulent Friday’s trades. The sterling was attempting to consolidate around 1.2400 during the trades on Monday. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs slowed their downward movement in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages kept pointing lower. The current resistance is seen at 1.2500, the support lies at 1.2400. MACD shows a divergence in the 4 hours chart. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI remained within negative territory. Trading recommendations The GBP/USD is oversold, trading will be according to technical factors, due to the absence of strong drivers. If the price rebounds from the current support the currency pair will grow towards 1.2600. A downward pressure will send the quotes towards the historical lows at 1.2000. Yen General overview The dollar kept strengthening across the board on expectations that the Fed will hike rate this year. Current situation The trend is clearly bullish for now. The USD/JPY pair was in buy mode on Monday. The pair has completed a downside impulse, the price bounced from the mark 102.90 and moved higher. The pair recovered all its losses during the European hours. According to the 4 hours chart, the price is in a mid-term ascending channel, moving upwards from its lower limit. The 50-EMA extended its growth, the 100 and 200 EMAs are moderately bullish in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance can be found at 103.50, the support comes in at 102.50. MACD shows a divergence in the 1 hour chart. The MACD histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI moved towards the overvalued territory. Trading recommendations The indicators recommend long positions, suggesting the pair is to grow further. Buyers seem to plan to re-test 103.50 and to move higher towards last week high at 104.14. NZD/USD Current situation Technically, the pair preserved its near-term downward trajectory. The NZD/USD pair gapped higher on Monday. The price was able to recover to 0.7180, where sellers turned it around. The kiwi was falling during the Asian and European sessions and reached the level 0.7120 at the beginning of the New York session. In the 4 hours chart the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs moved lower. The 50 and 100 EMAs crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The resistance is at 0.7200, the support stands at 0.7120. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI remained within the oversold territory. Trading recommendations A beak below 0.7120 will extend losses towards 0.7050. To strengthen the NZD/USD needs to have a daily close above 0.7250. Meanwhile, any move above the current support we consider as corrective. XAUUSD General overview Gold recovered on Monday despite Cleveland Fed President’s speech where he supported the idea of a U.S. rate hike in 2016. Current situation Gold gapped higher at the start of the new week. The price extended its recovery on Monday after a sharp decrease on Friday. The XAU/USD broke the level 1260 upwards and slowed down a few pips above it. The pair slightly eased at the NY open. The moving averages maintained their decline in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1260, the support comes in at 1250 dollar per ounce. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI remains within oversold levels. Trading recommendations A move below 1250 will signal the return of sellers. The yellow metal may extend its losses towards 1240. Brent General overview Oil prices grew on Monday when Russia said to support the global production freeze. Current situation The bullish scenario prevailed on Monday. After a gap lower at the beginning of the Asian session Brent prices bounced off the support 51.50 dollars per barrel and trended upwards. Oil prices extended their gains during the day, the quotes broke the level 52.50 and touched 53.50. Brent hit one-year high during NY trading session. Prices continued developing well above the bullish 50, 100 and 200 EMAs. The moving averages accelerated their growth. All moving averages direction is upwards. The resistance is at 53.50, the support comes in at 52.50 dollars per barrel. MACD shows a divergence in the 4 hours chart. MACD remained in the positive area. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI approached the overbought area. Trading recommendations Bulls fought back control and pushed the price higher on Monday. Their primary goal is the level 54.50 dollars per barrel. DAX Current situation DAX gapped downwards on Monday, but failed to move lower. Prices refreshed a daily low at 10430, turned around and rallied towards 10600. DAX broke the level 10500 on its way upwards. After touching the level 10600 the price slowed down and remained around the level. The moving averages retained mixed signals yesterday. The 100-EMA is steadily bearish, the 50-EMA has just turned down, the 200-EMA is neutral. The resistance is seen at 10600, the support is at 10500. MACD grew which indicates the buyers’ positions strengthening. The RSI oscillator moved upwards. Trading recommendations If the upwards pressure persists the price will break the level 10600 to extend its gains. If DAX fails to reclaim the level prices may fall below 10500. NASDAQ General overview Wall Street opened higher on Monday fallowing the results of the second presidential debate. Moreover, oil prices growth supported energy stocks and boosted investor appetite for riskier assets. Current situation After a quite mode during the Asian hours on Monday the index rallied in the European session and was able to refresh the historical high at the start of the NY session. Buyers were able to push the price higher from the level 4865 towards 4900. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bullish slope in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages accelerated their growth. The resistance is seen at 4900, the support is at 4865. The MACD histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI approached the overbought levels. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remains bullish, for a rise towards 4940 resistance area. A close below 4865 will trigger losses towards 4835. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 12, 2016 Author Share Posted October 12, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 12.10.2016 Euro General overview The EUR/USD traded lower on Tuesday on the back of the strong dollar. The revived hopes for the Fed rate-hike supported the US currency. The euro ignored the positive Economic Sentiment report in Germany. Current situation The pair opened on a weaker note on Tuesday. The euro continued to lose its value. The EUR/USD pair faced a selling pressure and softened towards 1.1100. After reaching the level the price broke it and continued its decline. The moving averages are heading lower in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The resistance comes in at 1.1100, the support stands at 1.1070. MACD remained in the negative area. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI is going south which confirms the current downward movement. Trading recommendations The pair maintained its bearish tone. We prefer to sell towards the next support level 1.1070. We do not exclude a recovery towards 1.1130. Pound General overview The pound remained under pressure on Tuesday due to hard-Brexit concerns. Current situation The pound preserved a negative sentiment on Tuesday. The GBP/USD has declined the second day in a row. The price moved towards 1.2200 through the 1.2300 level. The sterling has lost about 0.66% during the trades. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs extended their decline. The current resistance is seen at 1.2400, the support lies at 1.2300. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI oscillator is consolidating within negative are. Trading recommendations The pair will continue a downtrend as soon as it breaks below 1.2300. The 1.2200 level seems the next probable bearish target. Yen General overview The dollar strengthened across the board due to the possibilities of an eventual Fed rate-hike in 2016. Current situation The pair remained positive on Tuesday. The prices hold onto recent gains, struggling with the 104.00 resistance level. The USD/JPY continues developing well above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs. The moving averages direction is upwards. The resistance can be found at 104.30, the support comes in at 103.50. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ weakening. The RSI oscillator moved downwards from the overbought area. Trading recommendations There is a potential for a roll back towards 103.00 due to the absence of strong drivers. The price will move down if the level 104.00 holds. USD/CAD General overview The USD/CAD pair opened higher on Tuesday amid oil price weakening. Current situation Market’s positive mood persisted on Tuesday. Having recovered after a sharp decrease on Monday, the USD/CAD pair extended its near-term upward trajectory. According to the 4 hours chart the dollar bounced from the 100-EMA which acted as a support for the price. The pair broke the 50-EMA on its way upwards and moved away from the moving averages in the same chart. All moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance is at 1.3300, the support stands at 1.3200. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is neutral. Trading recommendations The bullish views are still popular on the market. The USD/CAD pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate resistance at 1.3300. A daily closing below the current support will give sellers a chance to move the price lower towards 1.3100. XAUUSD General overview The renewed risk aversion sentiment supported the dollar and weighed on gold prices. Current situation The bearish scenario prevailed on Tuesday. Gold prices got under selling pressure after a short-lived recovery in the Asian session. The yellow metal moved from the daily high at 1265 towards the level 1250. The moving averages kept moving lower in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1260, the support comes in at 1250 dollar per ounce. MACD remained in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels. Trading recommendations The pair XAU/USD looks bearish. We expect a breakout of 1250 and a move lower towards 1240. Brent General overview Brent futures softened on Tuesday hit by OPEC deal concerns. Current situation The price gave up its recent gains and declined on Tuesday. Oil prices got under selling pressure and moved lower towards 52.50 where the downward pressure weakened. Brent remained above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA accelerated its growth, the 100 and 200 EMAs are moderately bullish. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The resistance is at 53.50, the support comes in at 52.50 dollars per barrel. MACD remained in the positive area. RSI consolidated within the overbought area. Trading recommendations A move below 52.50 will send Bren prices towards 51.50. A move higher will open the way towards 54.50. DAX DAX traded mixed on Tuesday. Investors expect new clues over the Fed rate hike and OPEC deal to cut production. Current situation DAX gapped downwards on Tuesday, but failed to move lower. The price pierced the level 10600, turned around and grew above the level. DAX extended its gains up to 10700 where the bullish spike faded and prices slightly moved back. The 200-EMA is neutral in the 4 hours chart, while the 50 and 100 EMAs are moving lower. The resistance is seen at 10600, the support is at 10500. MACD grew which indicates the buyers’ positions strengthening. The RSI traded within positive territory. Trading recommendations In the scenario where buyers keep control the price is expected to rise towards 10700. Alternatively, a break below 10600 will lead the price towards 10500. S&P500 General overview Wall Street opened lower on Tuesday as oil prices decline weighed on energy stocks. Current situation The index retreated from the recent high ahead of the US opening. S&P500 suffered a short lived downward movement towards 2150. Prices bounced from the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. S&P500 is between 50 and 200 EMAs now. All moving averages kept heading lower. The resistance is seen at 2165, the support is at 2150. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is within the neutral area. Trading recommendations After breaking through 2150 support, the index will most likely move down to around the 2140 mark. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 12, 2016 Author Share Posted October 12, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 13.10.2016 Euro General overview The EUR/USD traded lower on the back of the renewed speculation that the Fed will hike the rate this year. The euro weakened despite positive ZEW Surveys. Current situation The euro remained vulnerable on Wednesday. The single European currency extended its losses below 1.1070 and approached the lowest level since July 27. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs extended their decline, currently around the 1.1150 region. The 50 and 100 EMAs crossed the 200-EMA downwards in the 4 hours chart. The resistance comes in at 1.1070, the support stands at 1.1000. MACD remained in the negative area. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI indicator held near oversold levels. Trading recommendations The EUR/USD is oversold short term. The pair approached the critical 1.1000 figure during the European trades. If the price breaks the level 1.1000 it may extend its losses towards 1.0960. In case of recovery, we will see the EUR/USD pair growing towards the 1.1100-1.1120 region. Pound General overview The GBP/USD was able to strengthen when Theresa May’s (the UK PM) allowed the Parliament to vote on her plans to Brexit. Current situation After a short-lived recovery during the Asian session the pound returned to a sell-off being unable to reclaim 1.2300. The level 1.2300 rejected the price downwards. The GBP/USD broke 1.2200 and moved lower towards 1.2100. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs accelerated their decline. The current resistance is seen at 1.2200, the support lies at 1.2100. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI indicator is holding near the oversold levels. Trading recommendations A bearish tone prevailed in the 4 hours chart. We will sell the GBP/USD until it stays below 1.2470. A daily close above this level will indicate that the current bearish phase is over. Yen General overview Haruhiko Kuroda confirmed on Wednesday that the regulator was ready to ease its policy if necessary. Current situation After a recovery during the Asian hours the USD/JPY stabilized around 103.50 on Wednesday. The physiological 104.00 level turned out to be a tough nut to crack. There have been two attempts to break it and both of them failed. The pair remained above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages slowed down their growth, staying around the 102.50 region. The resistance can be found at 104.00, the support comes in at 103.00. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. The RSI oscillator moved upwards. Trading recommendations Bulls still plan to retake the 104.00 level. A clear break above the level will send the USD/JPY pair towards the September high at 104.30. Alternatively, a move below 103.50 shall weaken buyers’ positions. The pair will decline towards the mark 102.80. AUD/USD General overview The commodity currencies strengthened following oil prices growth. Current situation After testing the lowest low since September 20 the pair had a sharp recovery in the Asian session on Wednesday. The Aussie was able to reverse the majority of its losses recorded on Tuesday. However, the bullish spike was short-lived, the AUD/USD pair remained under pressure. The price faced a downward pressure at the beginning of the New York session. According to the 4 hours chart the moving averages stopped the upward momentum. The moving averages narrowed maintaining their bearish slope. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100 and 200 EMAs downwards. The resistance is at 0.7600, the support stands at 0.7540. MACD is in the negative area. MACD decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI oscillator moved downwards. Trading recommendations The bearish trend remained intact. We believe the price will return to 0.7540 first. The next level to focus on is 0.7500. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices slightly strengthened on Wednesday supported by US rate hike expectations and FOMC minutes. Current situation The 4 hours chart for the pair presents a moderate bearish potential. The pair failed to regain the resistance level 1260 and declined towards the psychological level 1250. Gold futures moved lower amid broad based dollar strength. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs advanced south in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1260, the support comes in at 1250 dollar per ounce. MACD remained in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator remained near the oversold levels. Trading recommendations The level 1250 remained the initial barrier and first trigger to move lower. If the pair manages to make a breakout the next target for this pair is the support level of 1240. In the event that the buyers manage to force above 1260 the XAU/USD may grow towards 1270. Brent General overview Oil prices moved lower on Wednesday ahead of the Fed minutes and the weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles by the API. Current situation Brent futures lost ground on Wednesday. Buyers were unable to move the price higher. Oil prices got under selling pressure and the prices dropped towards 51.50 at the NY open. Brent price is struggling with the 50-EMA which blocks its further downward movement. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs kept moving higher in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel. The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. RSI is going downwards which confirms the strength of sellers. Trading recommendations The downward views are getting more popular. We expect the price to break 51.50 and to extend its losses towards 50.50. DAX General overview The sentiment on the European markets worsened on Wednesday following Ericsson shares decline. Investors were cautious ahead of the Fed minutes publications. Current situation DAX gapped higher at the beginning of the day. The price jumped from 10550 to the 10600 level where the price turned around and moved lower. DAX was struggling with the 10500 level during the NY session. The price broke the 200 EMA and touched the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200 EMAs are moving lower. The 50-EMA direction is upwards. The resistance is seen at 10600, the support is at 10500. MACD remained in the positive area. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved downwards. Trading recommendations A break below 10500 will weaken buyers’ positions and will allow sellers to test 10400. If the level holds the price will recover towards 10600. NASDAQ General overview Wall Street opened lower ahead of the Fed minutes publications. Current situation The index recovered in the Asian session on Wednesday However, its recovery was limited by the 2140 resistance. Prices bounced off the level and moved lower. NASDAQ traded around 2130 before the Fed meeting. The index is below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their moderately bearish slope. The resistance is seen at 2140, the support is at 2130. MACD is in the negative area. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI is within the oversold area. Trading recommendations The price needs to break 2130 to move south. Should NASDAQ recover ground and advance beyond 2140 the index may extend its gains towards 2150. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 13, 2016 Author Share Posted October 13, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 14.10.2016 Euro General overview The dollar strengthened when the latest FOMC minutes reaffirmed investors’ expectations of a Fed rate-hike in the current year. Current situation The EUR/USD opened on a stronger note on Thursday. The price retreated from the current low at 1.1000 and recovered to 1.1040 in the Asian session. The U.S. currency returned control of the flows in early Europe trade. The euro gave up its recent gains and declined. The EUR/USD moved downwards and pierced the level 1.1000. The price failed to move lower, the EUR/USD bounced from the three-month low mark at 1.0990 and reversed some of its losses post-European open. The moving averages maintained their decline in the 4 hours chart. The resistance comes in at 1.1050, the support stands at 1.1000. MACD remained in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The MACD shows a convergence in the 1 hour chart. RSI indicator is holding near oversold levels. Trading recommendations If the price makes another attempt and this time consolidates below the 1.1000 support area then we could see a decline towards 1.0950. The next sellers' target is the level 1.0900. The EUR/USD may extend its recovery towards 1.1100. Pound General overview The dollar strengthened after the Fed’s minutes publication. The pound kept losses due to weaker Europeans stocks and oil prices. Current situation Sellers continued to dominate. The cable remained under selling pressure on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair spent the day around the recent low – 1.2100. The price is developing below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs which extended their decline. The current resistance is seen at 1.2200, the support lies at 1.2100. MACD is in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator is holding near oversold levels. Trading recommendations If the selling pressure persists the GBP/USD will remain focused on a potential test of 1.2100. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.2000 could be observed further. Yen General overview The yen strengthened against the US dollar on the back of the weaker-than-expected Chinese data. Current situation The USD/JPY remained in a short-term ascending channel. The price retreated from the new weekly high and returned below 104.00. The downward pressure faded at 103.50 where the price turned around and was able to reverse some of its losses. The USD/JPY returned to 104.00 trying to regain the level. The price remained above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 maintained their bullish slope. The resistance can be found at 104.00, the support comes in at 103.00. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is heading south. Trading recommendations If the resistance around 104.00 holds, then a move down to 103.00 is possible. NZD/USD General overview The kiwi remained weak due to Chinese trade data and ongoing weakness in oil prices. Current situation Sellers continued to dominate in the market. The NZD/USD pair extended its weakness on Thursday. The downward momentum faded a few pips below 0.7050. The price grew and reversed early losses. The overall picture is bearish and we believe that the current rebound does not have any legs. The moving averages extended their decline in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 0.7120, the support stands at 0.7050. MACD is in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved upwards from the oversold area. Trading recommendations The level 0.7050 seems the next probable bearish target. A break below the level will suggest further weakness towards 0.6980. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices grew on Thursday on the back of the weaker-than-expected Chinese trading data. Chinese trade balance data renewed worries of an economic slowdown in the country. Current situation The XAU/USD pair remains neutral in the short term. The price continued its rebound from the strong psychological level 1250 dollar per ounce. Gold prices erased the early losses, however, the upward impetus faded at 1260 in the lack of market mover. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1260, the support comes in at 1250 dollar per ounce. MACD remained in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved upwards. Trading recommendations The price is in a flat. A break above or below the current levels will determine further direction of the yellow metal. A daily close above 1260 will open the way towards 1270-1275. A move lower shall extend losses towards 1240. Brent General overview Brent prices decreased after the OPEC report that output levels reached eight-year high. According to AIP US crude inventories rose in the week to October 7. Current situation Brent prices extended the downside in the Asian session on Thursday. However, the 51.50 support limited its further weakness, the price bounced off the level and reverted some of its early losses at the beginning of the European session. Brent futures remained in the upward middle-term channel, close to its lower limit. Despite the three-day decrease the price is still in the green figures. The 50-EMA failed to stop the further weakness of Brent prices, the price mobbed lower. The moving averages keep heading higher with the 50 and 100 EMAs crossing the 200-EMA. The resistance is at 51.50, the support comes in at 50.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is within the neutral area. Trading recommendations Oil prices may extend the recovery towards 52.50. Conversely, a downtrend will start as soon, as Brent drops below the support level 51.50. DAX General overview European stocks opened lower on U.S. rate hike talk. Weak Chinese Trade balance report renewed concerns over the world strength of the economy. Current situation DAX gapped lower at the beginning of the day, the price dropped from 10530 to the mark 10430. The index continued to move lower during the day. DAX set a weekly low at 10348. The price broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs downwards and moved away from them. The moving averages present a slightly bearish slope in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is seen at 10400, the support is at 10300. MACD is in the negative area. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI is in the oversold area. Trading recommendations The market switched to bearish tone. We believe that the next level to focus on is 10300. S&P500 General overview Wall Street opened lower on Thursday. Investors digested the weak Chinese data and prepared for the US releases and Crude Oil Stocks report. Current situation S&P500 had a negative day on Thursday. The price made a good break lower. Sellers dragged the price from the level 2130 towards the mark 2110 (the daily low). The price broke the level 2120 on its way down. The downward momentum faded at 2110, the price grew back to 2120, reversing some of its losses. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are heading lower, around the 2150 region. The 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA downwards. The resistance is seen at 2120, the support is at 2107. MACD is in the negative area. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI is within the oversold area. Trading recommendations If the price closes below 2120 the index can extend its losses towards 2107. If the level 2120 holds the prices may recover back towards 2130. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 16, 2016 Author Share Posted October 16, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 17.10.2016 Euro General overview The US dollar strengthened due to revived hopes of a rate hike by the Fed in 2016. Investors waited for Janet Yellen's speech expecting fresh hints on the Fed's rate hike outlook. Current situation The EUR/USD tested the level 1.1000 again. The mark 1.0984 rejected its first attempt to break the level. The price bounced off the level, however, the recovery was short-lived and stopped around 1.1050 where the euro got under selling pressure. Sellers pushed the price lower and broke the 1.1000 level in the North American session. The price bounced downwards from the 100-EMA and moved below the 50-EMA in 1 hour chart. The 50-EMA acted as a resistance for the price. All moving averages are heading lower. The resistance comes in at 1.1000, the support stands at 1.0950. MACD is in the negative area. The histogram decreased which confirms strength of sellers. RSI remained in the oversold area. Trading recommendations The overall sentiment remains negative. A break below 1.1000 would open the way to 1.0950. To trigger recovery we need a daily closing above 1.1050. Pound General overview The pound strengthened on the back of the better-than-expected Housing Price Balance in the UK. Current situation The pound failed to break the 1.2100 level, the price reversed and strengthened to 1.2300. However, the recovery was short-lived and the price eased to 1.2200 where the GBP/USD spent the whole day. According to the 1 hour chart the 100-EMA did not let the price to go higher, the moving average rejected the pound downwards. The price is around the 50-EMA which provides a solid resistance for the sterling. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope. The current resistance is seen at 1.2300, the support lies at 1.2200. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI indicator is holding near oversold levels. Trading recommendations The overall structure remains bearish. However, we do not exclude another leg up towards the 1.2400 resistance region. The nearest sellers' target remains the support level 1.2100. Yen General overview The dollar strengthened following the upbeat Chinese CPI report. The dollar got stronger when the last Fed’s minutes reaffirmed investors’ expectations about the Fed rate-hike. Current situation The USD/JPY preserved its positive tone on Friday. The pair was able to extend its buying momentum above 104.00. The price added about 0.64% during the trades of the day. The prices decreased by the end of the trades. The USD/JPY pair bounced from the 100-EMA upwards in the 1 hour chart. The price broke through the 50-EMA and moved away from the moving averages in the mentioned timeframe. All moving averages are pointing higher. The resistance can be found at 105.00, the support comes in at 104.00. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is within the overbought area. Trading recommendations The pair can establish a fresh 11-week high if the upward momentum persists. The price is trending towards the 105.00 resistance area. If the bearish pressure prevails the USD/JPY will return below 104.00. USD/CAD General overview The US dollar weakened against its Canadian rival. However, its losses will be limited, the US dollar is supported across the board by the market’s hopes of the Fed rate-hike this year. Current situation The USD/CAD pair opened on a weaker note on Friday. The pair erased all its recent recovery gains and moved lower during the day. The price moved below 1.3250 and approached the 1.3150 level at the beginning of the New York session. Sellers managed to break the level during the North American hours. The pair is struggling with the 200-EMA which stopped its downward movement. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning down in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1.3150, the support stands at 1.3050. MACD is in the negative area. MACD decreased which indicates that sellers are getting stronger. The RSI oscillator moved downwards. Trading recommendations A close below 1.3150 will trigger losses towards 1.3120 where the 200-EMA lies. A cut through here will aim the USD/CAD at the 1.3050 level. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices weakened against the US dollar due to the strong US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index. Current situation Gold prices traded sideways during the European session amid lack of market movers on Friday. The yellow metal went back and forth in a range. A recovery towards the level 1260 switched to a decline back to 1250 dollar per ounce. The price was unable to break the 100-EMA in 1 hour chart. The line rejected the XAU/USD pair downwards. Gold futures moved below 50-EMA which provides a current resistance for the price. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs extended their decline in the same chart. The resistance is at 1260, the support comes in at 1250 dollar per ounce. MACD remained in the negative area. MACD decreased which confirms the sellers’ strength. RSI indicator consolidated near oversold levels. Trading recommendations A break above 1260 dollar per ounce would open the way to 1270. Alternatively, a move below the immediate support would suggest a resumption of the bearish trend towards 1240 dollar per ounce. Brent General overview Oil prices grew on Friday amid OPEC's plans to cut output. Meanwhile, some investors are skeptical that the OPEC deal will be efficient enough to stabilize prices. Current situation Oil prices extended their recovery mode on Friday. Brent continued rallying; buyers led the price from the mark 50.86 towards the resistance at 52.50 dollars per barrel where the upward momentum stalled. The price bounced from the bullish 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI oscillator remained neutral. Trading recommendations The bullish momentum run out of steam. The bearish views are getting more popular. The price is expected to decline towards 51.50. After breaking the level Brent quotes may decrease further towards 50.50. DAX General overview European stocks opened higher on Friday following the China’s CPI positive report. Current situation The index had a positive day on Friday. DAX continued its Thursday's recovery and extended its gains during the European hours. Buyers drove the price to 10600 where DAX seems to have found a strong resistance. After touching the level the price rolled back. The price broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are mixed with 50 and 200 EMAs going lower and the 100-EMA moving north. The resistance is seen at 10600, the support is at 10500. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening The RSI oscillator moved upwards. Trading recommendations Bullish sentiments are popular now. Once we break above the 10600 level, we think that the 10700 level will be next. NASDAQ General overview Wall Street traded higher on Friday after positive bank earning reports and on the back of the positive US statistics. Current situation The index extended its recovery on the European trade on Friday. Traders pushed the price higher and could escalate up to 4845 where the 50-EMA stopped the upward momentum. The price pierced the line and roll back below the 200-EMA ahead of the US opening. The 200-EMA is neutral, the 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA downwards. The resistance is seen at 4835, the support is at 4800. MACD is in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is within the neutral area. Trading recommendations NASDAQ had a negative day on Friday. If the negative tone prevails the index will test 4800 and may drop to 4770. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 17, 2016 Author Share Posted October 17, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 18.10.2016 Euro General overview The dollar grew against its main rivals to 7-month high on Monday. The US currency was able to extend its gains amid optimistic US data which reinforced investors’ hopes over the Fed rate hike in 2016. Current situation The euro partly recovered and was able to reverse the majority of its losses during the trades on Monday. The ongoing recovery could be attributed to some profit taking from bears following Friday's sell-off. Buyers pushed the EUR/USD to the resistance 1.1000. However, bulls failed to regain the level and the price slightly rolled back. The euro quotes tested the 50-EMA, around 1.1000 in the 1 hour chart. The 50-EMA acted as a barrier and rejected the price downwards. All moving averages (50, 100 и 200) are heading lower. The resistance comes in at 1.1000, the support stands at 1.0950. MACD remained in the negative area. The MACD histogram remained at the same level which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI indicator is holding near oversold levels. Trading recommendations We do not exclude that after rolling back the euro will try to retake the level 1.0950 again. Conversely, after a daily closing above the level 1.1000 the EUR/USD may extend its gains towards 1.1050. Pound General overview The pound remained under pressure amid growing concerns over the hard Brexit. Current situation The neutral phase that started last week is still intact. The cable gapped downwards at the open on Monday. The price jumped downwards from 1.2182 to 1.2153. The pair extended its losses after the gap and stayed in a tight range 1.2140 - 1.2200 during the course of the day. The sterling remained under bearish 50-EMA which limits its growth in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages slowed down with their decline, going downwards in the same chart. The current resistance is seen at 1.2200, the support lies at 1.2100. MACD is in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator is consolidating around the oversold levels. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay neutral for now. We expect further sideways trades in the coming sessions. Yen General overview The USD/JPY pair preserved its bid tone after the positive US retail sales report which pointed that the Fed is moving closer to raise the rates before the end of the year. Current situation The dollar/yen remained in an upward channel on Monday. The price moved away from the upper limit of the cannel and is struggling with the 104.00 support to go decline further. The dollar quotes approached the bullish 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 50-EMA provides a solid support for the price. All moving averages are pointing higher. The resistance can be found at 105.00, the support comes in at 104.00. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram remained at the same level which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is within the overbought area. Trading recommendations After breaking the 104.00 support the price will keep advancing south towards the mark 103.30. A bounce off the level will extend its gains toward the last week high at 104.61. AUD/USD General overview The Aussie softened against the dollar and lost some of its gains amid the commodity market growth. Current situation The AUD/USD pair was in buy mode on Monday. The price retreated from the lows posted on Friday. The Aussie moved upwards and was able to reverse some of its losses on Monday. The pair left the short-term downward channel and is trying to extend its buying momentum now. The price seems to be moving towards the resistance area at 0.7650. The AUD/USD pair bounced from the 50 and 100 EMAs which provided a bearish support for the quotes. The price bounced off the lines and moved away from them. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 0.7650, the support stands at 0.7600. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram remained at the same level which indicates the buyers’ strength. The RSI oscillator moved upwards. Trading recommendations If the positive tone persists the AUD/USD pair may extend its near-term recovery towards 0.7650. At the same time a bearish scenario requires a close below 0.7600. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices remained unmoved on Monday, trading around 4-month lows. A stronger dollar limits the further gold recovery. Current situation Gold prices traded flat on Monday. The last week trading range remained intact. The XAU/USD pair made an attempt to recover in the Asian session on Monday. However, the upward momentum stopped and the price decreased and erased its recent gains. The yellow metal spent the European session at the lower end of the trading range. Gold futures remained in-between the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages extended their bearish slope. The resistance is at 1260, the support comes in at 1250 dollar per ounce. MACD remained in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI remained close to the oversold levels. Trading recommendations The neutral phase will remain intact in the nearest time. The yellow metal will move between levels 1260 and 1250. We think the price will grow towards 1260 first. Brent General overview Brent futures edged lower on Monday amid a stronger dollar and rise in US drilling rig number. Current situation Brent is turning bearish in the 4 hours chart. After a short-lived recovery in the Asian session the Brent price bounced downwards from the 52.00 mark on Monday. Sellers pushed the prices lower towards the immediate support 51.50 which slowed down its decline. The 50-EMA acted as a resistance and stopped the growing momentum, rejecting the price downwards in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is turning neutral, the 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bullish slope. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI oscillator moved downwards. Trading recommendations We believe the price will keep battling with the 51.50 level. If the level holds oil prices will bounce back to 52.50. In the scenario where sellers break the level the Brent quotes move lower towards 50.50. DAX General overview European stocks opened lower on Monday when Pearson (media group) and Marine Harvest (sea products producer) shares decline weighed on stocks. Current situation DAX index gapped downwards on Monday. The price jumped from the mark 10575 to 10538. The price briefly strengthened and was able to erase its losses. However, the recovery turned out to be short-lived and DAX soon turned around. Prices decreased to the 10500 level region during the European hours. The price is sandwiched between the 50-EMA on the one side and the 100 and 200 EMAs on the other. The 50-EMA acts as a resistance, the 100 and 200 EMAs provide a strong support for the index. The 50 and 100 EMAs are moving downwards, the 200 EMA is slightly bullish. The resistance is seen at 10600, the support is at 10500. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI oscillator moved downwards. Trading recommendations As the most probable scenario, we expect the 10500 level breakthrough and further moving downwards towards the mark at 10430. S&P500 General overview Wall Street opened lower as expectations over the Fed's next monetary policy action remained a key determinant for the stocks. Investors prepared for a week full with corporate earnings reports. Current situation The index started the week with a recovery. S&P500 moved higher towards 2130 and was able to erase some of its losses during the Asian and European sessions on Monday. Buyers failed to retake the level and S&P500 sharply decreased at the beginning of the New York session. Prices broke upwards the 50-EMA and shortly pierced the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The index failed to hold its gains and decreased back below the moving averages in the mentioned timeframe. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) maintained their bearish slope. The resistance is seen at 2130, the support is at 2120. MACD remained at the same level which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI remained within negative levels. Trading recommendations The price traded in a descending channel, staying close to its upper limit. A move above the range will weaken sellers’ positions. An uptrend will start as soon, as the S&P500 rises above the resistance level 2140. The index will extend its losses towards 2110 after breaking the support 2120. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 18, 2016 Author Share Posted October 18, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 19.10.2016 Euro General overview The dollar weakened against its main peers as the disappointing U.S. data keep weighing on it. Current situation The EUR/USD pair remained in a near-term descending channel on Tuesday. The price bounced off its lower limit, approaching its upper boundary during the first part of the day. The current recovery might be bears' profit taking after last week decline. The pair faced another selling pressure at the NY open. The EUR/USD gave up its recent gains and moved below 1.1000 towards 1.0950. According to the 1 hour chart the recovery action was limited by the 100-EMA near the 1.1000 region. The price bounced from the line and moved downwards. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) keep moving lower. The resistance comes in at 1.1000, the support stands at 1.0950. MACD remained in the negative area. MACD decreased which confirm the sellers’ positions strength. The RSI oscillator moved downwards. Trading recommendations A downtrend will start as soon, as the EUR/USD pair consolidates below the level 1.1000. The level 1.0950 is the first sellers’ target. Pound General overview The pound strengthened on the back of the positive Consumer Price index in the UK. Current situation The sterling remained in a range during the Tuesday’s trades. The price moved from its lower limit at 1.2130 and was able to escalate up to 1.2288 where the upward momentum faded. An attempt to recover was limited by the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages keep heading south in the mentioned timeframe. The current resistance is seen at 1.2300, the support lies at 1.2200. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI oscillator moved upwards. Trading recommendations A break above the upper limit of the range will allow recovering towards 1.2400. A break below 1.2100 will suggest further weakness. Yen General overview The dollar traded lower against the other major currencies following the weak Empire State manufacturing report which diminished expectations for another rate hike by Fed in 2016. Current situation The 3-week bullish trend remains intact. The price strengthened in the Asian session on Tuesday. However, the growth was stopped by the 104.00 level, where the pair met a selling interest, pushing the price lower. The USD/JPY pair bounced off the level and headed downwards to the 103.40 region where the 50-EMA lies. The 50-EMA may provide a solid support for the quotes in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same timeframe. The resistance can be found at 104.00, the support comes in at 103.00. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is within the neutral area. Trading recommendations In the potential scenario, the next stop for the USD/JPY could well be around level at 103.40. If the pressure persists the price will extend its losses towards 103.00. NZD/USD General overview The kiwi strengthened due to the better-than-expected Consumer Price Index report and a weaker dollar. Current situation The pair had a positive day on Tuesday. The NZD/USD extended its bullish momentum, struggling with 0.7200 to move higher. The price tried to break the bearish 200-EMA which limited its growth in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA is neutral, the 50 and 100 EMAs are turning upwards, following the price. The resistance is at 0.7200, the support stands at 0.7120. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. The RSI is in the overbought area. Trading recommendations If bulls retain control and breaks above 0.7200 the NZD/USD pair will strengthen towards 0.7250. If the price fails to reclaim the level 0.7200, then this could lead to renewed selling momentum, possibly towards 0.7120. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices traded higher on Tuesday as the disappointing US inflation report pushed back expectations for another US rate hike. Current situation The XAU/USD remained rangebound on Tuesday. Gold prices reached the upper boundary of the range when the level 1260 dollar per ounce stopped its further recovery. The price struggled hard with the level to extend its gains, but failed. The yellow metal retreated from the daily high and continued to head lower in the North American session. The 200-EMA stopped the yellow metal strengthening in the 1 hour chart. The 200-EMA rejected the price downwards, towards the 50 and 100 EMAs. The 200-EMA is moving downwards, the 50 and 100 EMAs are neutral in the same chart. The resistance is at 1260, the support comes in at 1250 dollar per ounce. MACD remained in the negative area. If MACD remains within the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI left the overbought area and headed south. Trading recommendations If the price makes another attempt and this time breaks above the 1260 resistance area then we could see its growth towards 1270 dollar per ounce. At the same time bearish scenario requires close below 2150 dollar per ounce. Brent General overview Oil prices remained positive on Tuesday as some analysts believe that the market is not so oversupplied as it was suggested earlier. Current situation Brent gapped higher at the open on Tuesday. Prices jumped from 51.67 to 51.70 dollars per barrel. Brent crude oil continued with its recovery later the day. The price reached the mark 52.00 which appeared to be a pivot point. The price turned around and headed lower towards 51.50. However, the downward pressure quickly faded and the price stopped a few pips above 51.50. The 50-EMA became a barrier on its way upwards in the 4 hours chart. The line rejected the price, sending it downwards. The 50-EMA is neutral, the 100 and 200 EMAs are pointing higher. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI moved upwards. Trading recommendations Bears are attempting to control the market. If they succeed the price will break 51.50. After breaking the level bears will move towards 50.50. DAX General overview European stocks sentiment improved due to oil prices growth and as investors began preparing for the ECB meeting this Thursday. Current situation The DAX index ended its 4-day decline and opened on a positive note on Tuesday. The price gapped higher at the open and extended its gains towards 10656, breaking the level 10600 on its way up. Having refreshed the weekly high the index rolled back towards 10600. The price jumped over the 50 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs maintained their bearish slope, the 200-EMA is neutral. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10600. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. The RSI is within overbought area. Trading recommendations A daily close above 10600 will indicate a continuation of the upward movement. Buyers will push the price towards 10700. A close below 10600 may trigger a downward movement towards 10500. NASDAQ General overview Wall Street opened higher fallowing the positive Consumer Price index. Investors keep weighing up corporate earnings reports. Current situation NASDAQ held a bullish tone yesterday. The index continued moving higher, breaking above the previous day’s top. The price broke the level 4835 and was able to extend its gains towards 4848 where the bullish spike faded and NASDAQ rolled back. The 100-EMA stopped the upward momentum. The price bounced off the moving average and headed downwards below the 50-EMA. The 100 and 50 EMA direction is downwards. The 200-EMA is moderately bullish. The resistance is seen at 4850, the support is at 4800. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. The RSI oscillator moved upwards. Trading recommendations The index remained in a broad range descending channel. The price tested its upper boundary on Tuesday. A break above the line will indicate that the negative sentiment is over. In this potential scenario, buyers will lead the price to 4865. If the price fixates below the level 4835 NASDAQ may return to a decline. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 19, 2016 Author Share Posted October 19, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 20.10.2016 Euro General overview The euro strengthened against the US dollar on the back of the weak data and Fed officials’ ambiguous comments regarding the rate. Current situation The bearish trend remained intact in the 4 hours chart. The EUR/USD pair was decisively trading below the 1.1000 level. The market was fairly balanced during the Asian session on Wednesday. The price stayed between the marks 1.0970 and 1.1000. The euro moved down towards 1.0950 during the European trades. The euro quotes broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart in the Asian session. The 100-EMA rejected the price downwards. The EUR/USD was in-between the 50 and 100 EMAs during the early European hours and moved below the lines ahead of the US opening. All moving averages accelerated their decline in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance comes in at 1.1000, the support stands at 1.0950. MACD is in the negative territory. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI headed towards the oversold area. Trading recommendations Negative technical studies maintained bearish pressure. A break below 1.0950 will suggest a further weakness towards 1.0900. Pound General overview The pound strengthened on Wednesday due to the positive labour market report. The unemployment level has remained unchanged despite the Brexit referendum results. Current situation The GBP/USD remained in bulls' hands on Wednesday. Bulls pushed the price towards 1.2300. The sterling was battling with the resistance 1.2300 during the day. The pound quotes broke the 50 and 100 EMAs and snapped the 200-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 200-EMA became an initial barrier for the price which was struggling to take it out during the day. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards in the same chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are neutral. The current resistance is seen at 1.2300, the support lies at 1.2200. MACD entered the positive area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI approached the oversold area. Trading recommendations Our short-term outlook remains bullish. A break above 1.2300 risks a growth towards the resistance at 1.2400. Yen General overview The US dollar weakened against its main peers following the recent US data. Traders were cautious ahead of U.S. Building Permits release. Current situation The 4 hours chart for the pair presents a moderate bearish potential. The price finally broke the consolidation range and made a good break below 104.00. Sellers pushed the quotes towards 103.00. The 50-EMA stopped the downward momentum in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) extended their growth. The resistance can be found at 104.00, the support comes in at 103.00. MACD entered the oversold area. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI moved towards the overvalued levels. Trading recommendations The USD/JPY is approaching the 103.00 level. A move below the level would indicate that the immediate upward pressure eased. In this scenario, sellers will push the price further towards the 102.50 region. A bounce off the 103.00 level will return buyers in the game. USD/CAD General overview The commodity currencies like loonie strengthened following oil prices growth. Current situation The pair retained a neutral, short-term undertone. The USD/CAD extended its recovery and touched the daily high at 1.3128 before retreating downwards. The price spent the day within a tight range 1.3130 - 1.3080. The USD/CAD pair bounced downwards from the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA is neutral, the 50-EMA is crossing the 100-EMA downwards. The resistance is at 1.3150, the support stands at 1.3050. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels, favoring a new move lower. Trading recommendations The USD/CAD is approaching the support 1.3050. If the price breaks this support, the pair may fall further that should send this market looking for the 1.3000 mark. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices grew amid uncertainty over the timing of future Fed rate hikes. Current situation The gold hold the upbeat tone vs. its American peer on Wednesday. The XAU/USD finally left the range and extended its gains during the European session on Wednesday. Buyers led the price from the level 1260 towards 1270 per ounce. The bullish spike faded around the immediate resistance where prices spent the rest of the day. The pair broke the 50-EMA and approached the 100-EMA which stopped its growth in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is neutral, the 100 and 200 EMAs are still moving downwards. The resistance is at 1270, the support comes in at 1260 dollar per ounce. MACD is in the positive area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is going north which confirms the current upward movement. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remains bullish, for rise towards 1270 resistance area. A successful break above the level will send prices towards the next resistance at 1280 dollar per ounce. Brent General overview A fall in U.S. crude stocks together with a planned output cut next month support oil prices. Current situation Brent futures remained rangebound between the current support and resistance. Bulls pushed the price from the lower end of the range towards its upper one. Buyers moved Brent futures towards 52.50 dollars per barrel where the buying momentum faded. Oil prices bounced off the level and spent the European session slightly below it. The price stays in the 50-EMA region which provides a solid resistance for oil futures. The 50-EMA is neutral, the 100 and 200 EMAs are pointing higher. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is in a neutral area. Trading recommendations If the 52.50 dollars per barrel level can hold Brent futures could decline to 51.50. A clear strength above this immediate resistance will pave way towards 53.50. DAX General overview European stocks opened lower as investors digested the Chinese data and European corporate earning reports. Current situation DAX index opened bearish yesterday. The price gapped higher at the opening and filled the gap after declining back to 10600. The level 10600 appeared to be a tough nut to crack. The price rolled back in early European trades and made another attempt to break below the level lately. Sellers again failed to reclaim the 10600 level, the price bounced off the level and moved to the 10650 region. The 50 and 100 EMAs kept moving higher with the 50-EMA crossing the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA is neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10600. The MACD indicator continues consolidating within overbought levels. RSI indicator is near overvalued territory, favoring a new move lower. Trading recommendations The near term outlook will be bullish as long as the price holds above 10500. S&P500 General overview American stocks opened higher on Wednesday on the back of the strong quarterly earnings. Current situation The index was positive yesterday despite the negative spike in early European trades. Sellers failed to retake the level 2130, the price bounced from the support and jumped to the 2135 region. The growing momentum was stopped by the 50-EMA which rejected the price downwards. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) maintained their bearish slope. The resistance is seen at 2140, the support is at 2130. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI was neutral during the day. Trading recommendations The bearish tone persists. The S&P500 index may try to retake the level 2130 after a current roll back. The next level to focus on is 2120. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 20, 2016 Author Share Posted October 20, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 21.10.2016 Euro General overview The EUR/USD remained unchanged after the ECB left its monetary stance unchanged. Current situation The price maintained its bearish tone on Thursday. The EUR/USD pair stayed around its recent lows during the day. The euro slightly strengthened towards 1.1000 ahead of the US opening. The 50-EMA limited the euro recovery in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) maintained their bearish slope. The resistance comes in at 1.1000, the support stands at 1.0950. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI oscillator is consolidating within negative area. Trading recommendations The level 1.0950 seems the next probable bearish target. After breaking the level sellers will lead the price towards 1.0900. We do not exclude a short-term correction towards the 1.1000 resistance region. Pound General overview The pound edged lower on Thursday following worse-than-expected Retail Sales release. Current situation The GBP/USD pair remained near its recent highs, consolidating its gains. The pound traded flat, staying within a tight range between 1.2300 - 1.2260.The prices moved downwards from the upper limit of the range towards its lower boundary during the day. According to the 1 hour chart the price is sandwiched between the 50 and 200 EMAS. All moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are neutral in the same chart. The current resistance is seen at 1.2300, the support lies at 1.2200. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI moved towards the oversold area. Trading recommendations The GBP/USD is having difficulties to go any higher. If the pound manages to break above the current resistance it will be able to test the level 1.2400. On the other side, a break below 1.2200 will erase its recent gains and will return sellers in the game. Yen General overview The USD/JPY edged higher on growing expectations over the Fed's monetary policy action. Current situation The USD/JPY pair remained in a wide sideways channel in the 4 hours chart. The price reached the lower limit of the range on Wednesday and bounced upwards after testing it. Bulls were able to reverse most of its latest losses on Thursday. The pair was able to escalate up to 103.75 ahead of NY opening. In the 4 hours chart the price met a strong barrier in the 103.00 region, around the 100-EMA which rejected the pair upwards. The pair returned above the 50-EMA and stayed there during the day in the mentioned chart. The resistance can be found at 104.00, the support comes in at 103.00. MACD is negative. However, MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced off the oversold area. Trading recommendations After rolling back the price may take another chance to reclaim the level 103.00. If sellers manage to break the level through the price will decline towards 102.50, around the 200-EMA. Alternatively, the USD/JPY will move above 104.00. AUD/USD General overview The Australian dollar moved lower vs. its U.S peer after mixed unemployment data release on Thursday. Current situation The price encountered significant losses on Thursday. After touching the level 0.7730 the prices turned around and sharply fell. The pair broke the 0.7690 level and tested 0.7650 on its way down. The downward impetus faded around the daily low. The AUD/USD broke the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The price is approaching the 100-EMA in the same timeframe. The 50-EMA is turning down, the 100 and 200 EMAs are still heading north. The resistance is at 0. 7690, the support stands at 0. 7650. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the overbought area and headed towards the negative levels. Trading recommendations If the price overcomes 0.7650 and moves downwards we will neutralize our medium term positive outlook. After breaking the current support level prices will trend towards 0.7625. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices remained near 2-week highs as speculations over Fed rate-hike continued. Current situation Technically, the short term picture is modestly bullish. The recovery from 1260 stalled at the 1270 level which hold onslaught of bulls. The XAU/USD pair traded in a narrow sideways range of 50 pips or less during the course of the trades. The 100-EMA limits yellow metal further strengthening in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is neutral, the 100 and 200 EMAs are heading lower. The resistance is at 1270, the support comes in at 1260 dollar per ounce. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI is consolidating within positive territory. Trading recommendations The tone is still positive in the market. Should gold prices advance beyond the 1270 level, the rally can extend in the short term up to 1280 dollar per ounce. A move below the level will ease buyers’ positions, giving them a chance to move the price to the monthly lows. Brent General overview Oil prices moved lower on Thursday after a rally on the back of large U.S. oil inventory drawdown last week. Current situation Brent prices gave up its recent highs and sharply fell in the Asian session on Thursday. The ongoing decline could be attributed to some profit taking from bulls following a 3-day rally. Sellers pushed the price below 52.50 and met a barrier in the 52.00 region. The oil quotes continued with a decline during the North American session. The price broke the 50-EMA and headed lower towards the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is neutral in the same chart. The 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bullish slope. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI indicator is near overvalued territory, favoring a new move lower. Trading recommendations Our near term outlook is bearish. To trigger additional downward momentum oil prices need to break 52.00 and move below 51.50. DAX General overview European stocks traded mixed on Thursday. Market participants waited for the ECB’s meeting results and Mario Draghi’s press-conference. Current situation The index extended its near-term upward trajectory on Thursday. DAX gapped higher at the opening and extended its gains during the Asian session yesterday. Prices touched the level 10700 and immediately rolled back, spending the day below the level. The price hovered above the moving averages on yesterday’s trades. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are mixed in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA is neutral, the 50 and 100 EMAs are pointing higher. The resistance is seen at 10700, the support is at 10600. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator continues consolidating within overbought levels. Trading recommendations The DAX index may attempt to reclaim the 10700 level again. If prices break the level the index will extend its gains towards 10750. NASDAQ General overview The American Stocks edged higher at opening after the third and final U.S. presidential debates. NASDAQ turned lower during the NY session ahead of U.S. fresh statistics. Current situation The price stayed opened above the level 4835, trading in a tight range of 50 pips on Thursday. Sellers seem to be guarding the mark 4845 as the price bounces from the level on every attempt to grow. NASDAQ eased and moved lower in the New York session. The index struggled with the 100-EMA to grow further in the 4 hours chart. After bouncing from the moving average, the price moved to the 200-EMA which acts as a support for the index. The moving averages are mixed in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA is neutral, the 50-EMA is going downwards, the 200-EMA is moderately bullish. The resistance is seen at 4865, the support is at 4835. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator continues consolidating within overbought levels. Trading recommendations A strong breakdown and close above 4845 could send prices higher towards 4865. A return below 4835 will increase selling momentum towards 4800. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 23, 2016 Author Share Posted October 23, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 24.10.2016 Euro General overview The dollar traded near fresh 7-month highs on the final trading day of this week. The EUR/USD pair edged lower as the latest M. Draghi's remarks weighed on the euro, at the same time the U.S. rate hike hopes supported the US dollar. Current situation Bears have the ball now. Sellers pushed the euro lower, the price broke the level 1.0900 and headed towards 1.0830. The pair continues developing well below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) keep heading lower. The resistance comes in at 1.0900, the support stands at 1.0830. MACD is negative. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator is within negative territory, favoring a new move lower. Trading recommendations The EUR/USD pair is heading towards 1.0830. Should that level break down and the price will decline to 1.0780. We also expect a profit taking from bears after three-day sell-off. The prices may recover to 1.0950. Pound General overview The pound remained under pressure amid the return of the hard Brexit concerns. According to the U.K. Office for National Statistics Public Sector Net Borrowing grew in September. Current situation The pound remained vulnerable on Friday. Sellers continued to dominate and were able to push the price lower. The pair moved below 1.2300 and approached the level 1.2200 in the European session on Friday. The GBP/USD pair broke the level before the NY opening. The 50-EMA acts as a resistance and does not let the price to grow in the 4 hours chart. The pound bounced off the level and trended downwards from it. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs continued moving lower. The current resistance is seen at 1.2300, the support lies at 1.2200. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is heading south. Trading recommendations A move below the 1.2200 support would suggest a resumption of the bearish trend. The prices may move lower towards 1.2100. Yen General overview According to Haruhiko Kuroda (the BoJ Governor) the regulator may extend timing for reaching its inflation target. Current situation The USD/JPY pair turned negative after opening on Friday. After two-day recovery the price reached the level 104.00. Buyers were unable to retake the level, the price turned around and got under selling pressure. The pair traded around 103.75 Post-European open. The USD/JPY hovered over the moving averages in the 1 hours chart. The prices touched the 50-EMA which rejected them upwards. The 50-EMA provided a temporally support for the dollar. The moving averages are moderately bullish in the same chart. The resistance can be found at 104.00, the support comes in at 103.00. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI left the overbought area and headed downwards. Trading recommendations If the bearish scenario prevails the USD/JPY pair will face additional selling pressure. Sellers will lead the price towards 103.50 first. After breaking the mark the pair will move to 103.00. NZD/USD General overview The NZD/USD declined as expectations for the next U.S. rate hike kept supporting the US dollar. Current situation Kiwi was a little changed on Friday and remained prone to more weakness. Sellers kept pushing the price lower below 0.7200. The price stalled its decline around 0.7160 in the European trade. The pair broke the 200-EMA and tested the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA provides a solid support and does not allow its further weakness. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 0.7200, the support stands at 0. 7120. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is moving towards the oversold area. Trading recommendations In the event that the sellers manage to force the below 0.7160 the NZD/USD may test 0.7120. If the price bounces from the mark 0.7160 the pair may recover up to 0.7200. XAUUSD General overview Gold prices edged lower on Friday following the U.S. dollar strengthening. Meanwhile, the latest ECB’s decision supported the yellow metal. Current situation Gold prices traded mixed on Friday. The yellow metal traded lower the half of the day and higher the other half. Sellers moved the price to the level 1260 dollar per ounce which appeared a solid barrier for it. The pair bounced from the level and reversed some of its losses. The XAU/USD traded in the 1264 region ahead of the NY session. The 50-EMA stopped the further gold prices weakening in the 4 hours chart. The price bounced off the line and moved higher to the 100-EMA. The resistance is at 1270, the support comes in at 1260 dollar per ounce. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI indicator is near overvalued territory, favoring a new move lower. Trading recommendations A bearish continuation through 1260 should lead to a continued slide, with 1255 as the first probable target. A close below this mark will allow sellers to move lower towards 1250 dollars per ounce. Brent General overview Oil prices strengthened on Friday on Russia's output freeze commitment. Although a stronger dollar limited oil prices growth. Current situation Brent prices were in sell mode during the European session on Friday. The prices started the day around 51.50 and stayed under pressure during the day. Oil prices rose at the start of the NY session and closed the week bullish. The prices bounced upwards from the bullish 100-EMA and tested the 50-EMA on its way upwards in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is turning downwards, the 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bullish slope. The resistance is at 52.50, the support comes in at 51.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI bounced off the oversold area. Trading recommendations A consolidation above the 52.00 mark may extend bullish momentum. In the scenario where the buyers keep control Brent futures may recover back to 52.50 dollars per barrel. Otherwise, a move below 51.50 will weaken buying momentum and switch the market sentiment. In this potential scenario sellers will move the price towards 50.50 dollars per barrel. DAX General overview European stocks edged higher on Friday amid a weaker euro and strong corporate earning reports. Current situation The DAX index traded bearish on Friday. The prices stayed above the level 10700 during the European trades. However, the index gets under selling pressure on any up-move from the level. DAX moved below the level ahead of the New York session and returned above the level at close of trade. The moving averages are pointing higher in the 1 hour chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards. The resistance is seen at 10800, the support is at 10700. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within positive area. Trading recommendations In order to take a good position we will wait for prices to break below 10700. A solid consolidation below the level will indicate a growing strength of sellers. In this potential scenario the price will drop to 10600. S&P500 General overview Wall Street closed higher as Consumer Services, Technology and Consumer Goods sectors strengthened. Current situation S&P500 opened on a weaker note on Friday. The index continued to lose its value during the European session. Prices declined from 2135 towards 2123 during the first part of the day. S&P500 turned around at the beginning of NY session. The price returned above 2130, reversing some of its losses. The price broke the 50-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The index headed towards the 100-EMA in the same time frame. All moving averages kept heading lower. The resistance is seen at 2140, the support is at 2130. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI oscillator moved upwards. Trading recommendations If S&P500 manages a break below 2130 and stays there we would likely be selling the index towards 2120. If the price stays above the level the index we will buy it towards 2140. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted October 25, 2016 Author Share Posted October 25, 2016 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 26.10.2016 Euro General overview The EUR/USD was little changed on Tuesday despite strong Business Climate and Expectations in Germany. Current situation The euro was little changed on Tuesday. The common currency remained below the level 1.0900 during the day. The price traded in a tight range between the mark 1.0865 and the level 1.0900. The pair stayed below the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 50-EMA acted as a resistance for the price, rejecting its attempts to grow. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs kept heading lower in the mentioned time frame. The resistance comes in at 1.0900, the support lies at 1.0830. MACD remained in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI is within oversold area. Trading recommendations The pair may extend its recovery if it breaks the level 1.0900 upwards. In this scenario the EUR/USD may grow to 1.0950. The level 1.0830 remains the next probable bearish target. Pound General overview There were no macroeconomic releases in the UK. The BOE's Governor Carney speech was the main event on Tuesday. Current situation Sellers continued to dominate in the market on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair remained under pressure in a narrow range, trading a few pips above 1.2100. The pair was sandwiched between 50 and 100 EMAs in the 1 hour chart. The 100-EMA provided a solid resistance and limited the pound further recovery. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs slowed down their decline. All moving averages are pointing lower. The current resistance is seen at 1.2200, the support is at 1.2100. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is within the neutral area. Trading recommendations We prefer to sell now. After breaking 1.2200 the price will move towards 1.2100. Yen General overview The improved investors’ appetite for riskier assets weighed on the yen, maintaining its strong ask tone. Current situation The USD/JPY pair looked very bullish yesterday. The pair remained in an ascending channel, trading close to its two-week highs. The USD/JPY extended its gains and grew from 104.11 to 104.60. The price is above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope. The resistance can be found at 104.60, the support comes in at 104.00. The MACD histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator stayed near overbought area levels. Trading recommendations The USD/JPY pair approached the overbought area where the price turned around last time. The price will remain under buying pressure until it holds above 103.60. We expect a short-term decline back to the 104.00 - 103.70 support area. AUD/USD General overview The dollar strengthened across the board after stronger Manufacturing PMI data and the Fed officials’ remarks. The dollar is strong amid growing expectations that the Fed would hike the rates in December. Current situation The AUD spiked upwards in the Asian session on Tuesday. The price jumped from the level 0.7600 up to 0.7625. Buyers failed to break the level 0.7625, the price turned around and decreased, erasing its previous gains. The price bounced upwards from the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The AUD/USD pair broke the 50 and 100 EMAs in the same chart and hovered above them during the day. The resistance is at 0.7650, the support can be found at 0.7625. MACD is in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI returned to the oversold area. Trading recommendations Buyers may try to retake 0.7650. If the level holds the Aussie may return to 0.7600. If succeeded buyers will lead the price to 0.7675. XAUUSD General overview Gold futures edged higher on Tuesday, however, its gains were limited by a stronger dollar. The U.S dollar strengthened after the Fed officials’ hawkish remarks regarding a rate hike in December. Current situation The XAU/USD pair traded flat on Tuesday. The price remained between 1270 and 1260 dollars per ounce during the day. Gold prices struggled to find support around 1260. Sellers failed to break the level and the yellow metal bounced upwards and recovered to the upper boundary of the range. The pair bounced from the 50-EMA and headed towards the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is neutral, the 100 and 200 EMAs slowed down their decline. The resistance is at 1270, the support comes in at 1260 dollars per ounce. The MACD histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator stayed in overbought area levels, favoring a new move lower. Trading recommendations After breaking through the current resistance, the XAU/USD will most likely move up to around the 1280 level. Conversely, if the resistance 1270 holds a move towards 1260 dollars per ounce could be the next step. Brent General overview Oil prices strengthened on Tuesday on expectations of a planned output cut by the OPEC. Current situation After a sharp drop on Monday oil prices recovered on Tuesday. The price grew from the level 50.50 to 51.81 overnight. Buyers failed to move the price higher, Brent returned to selling on the back of profit taking. The price bounced from the bullish 50-EMA which acted as a resistance for it. The 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bullish slope in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is neutral in the same chart. The resistance is at 51.50, the support comes in at 50.50 dollars per barrel. MACD is in the negative area. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI is within neutral area. Trading recommendations If Brent maintains its bearish momentum oil prices will drop below 51.50. A cut through here will aim at the 50.50 level. DAX General overview European stocks maintained their bullish tone. The increase in earning of Randstad and Orange supported the markets. Current situation DAX gapped higher at the open on Tuesday. Prices jumped from 10757 to 10785. The index extended its gains after the gap. The price tested the level 10800, set a new daily high at 10834 and rolled back below the level. The price hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) kept heading north. The resistance is seen at 10800, the support is at 10700. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. The RSI is within overbought area. Trading recommendations The index will remain under pressure unless it breaks and holds above 10800. After breaking the level the market would look a little stronger with the level 10900 as a target area. S&P500 General overview Wall Street little changed in the NY session on Tuesday, traders awaited for corporate earnings reports, including Apple. Current situation The index extended its gains on Tuesday. The price was able to escalate to 2150 Post-European open. Buyers failed to take out the level, the price rolled, erasing its latest gains. The index broke the 100-EMA and moved upwards to the 200-EMA where the line stopped its further recovery. The 50-EMA is turning upwards, the 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope. The resistance is seen at 2140, the support is at 2130. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the oversold area. Trading recommendations The index may extend its losses towards 2140. A clear break below the level may send the price looking for the 2130 level test. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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