"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

 

05.08.2015

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The beginning of the current week was relatively calm in the currency market. The dollar continued to strengthen against the major competitors, continuing to enjoy the support by the Fed rate hike expectations. However the dollar slightly weakened on the yesterday’s trades.

 

Earlier the pair EUR/USD once again came under pressure, at the same time there was not any problem with the local growth drivers. The July PMI manufacturing activity index in the euro zone countries was mostly positive while the region index exceeded expectations and amounted to 52.4 against the expected 52.2. But it was not enough to strengthen the single European currency. Nevertheless the pair slightly increased on Tuesday.

 

Earlier the dollar got a new reason to grow. The personal spending rose in June more than expected, reflecting a growth by 0.4% against the forecast at the level of 0.3%. At a time when traders are almost convinced in the Fed rates raising until the end of the year, it was enough to trigger a purchases wave.

 

The pair pound/dollar closed the trades with a growth and the pair dollar/yen was trading in a flat.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro (EUR)

 

General overview

 

The euro fell amid the dollar growth in anticipation of the Friday US government employment publication. Investors expect the data to be strong and it may lead to move the forecasts, relating the interest rates growth by the Federal Reserve at an earlier date. However the pair slightly grew on Tuesday’s trades.

 

The trade within the pair euro/dollar looks lowly volatile. The price reduction is on the lower volumes and reached the strong support level of 1.0925. Then the pair rebounded upwards.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

 

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0925 and 1.0790.

 

 

Pound (GBP)

 

General overview

 

The Bank of England will announce its key interest rate decision on Thursday, the 6th of August and at the same time it will publish the meeting minute. Undoubtedly, the regulator tendency to increase the key rate will put upward pressure on the pair GBP/USD.

 

We can observe the pound decline against the US dollar amid the weak volatility and low volumes reduction. The price decline was close the strong support level of 1.5550. Then the pair showed an upward rebound.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

 

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5775.

 

 

Yen (JPY)

 

General overview

 

The main driving force that influenced the dollar growth was the personal income and spending data which rose by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively while revenues have grown more than it was forecasted. The Americans incomes grow more than expenditures that indicates the consumption slowdown. This trend threatens the fact that inflation may remain low and investors wait for the Fed rate hikes. Nevertheless, investors regarded revenue growth as a signal for the consumption and inflation future growth.

 

The resistance level of 124.30 re-testing led to the upward trend reversal downwards then a consolidation was formed.

 

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

 

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The buyers need to break above 124.30 for a steady growth.

 

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

 

06.08.2015

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The market trades are rather sluggish in anticipation of new movement catalysts. The dollar keeps the overall positive mood ahead of the coming Friday labor market publication which may be defined in terms of the US interest rates timing and thus the US currency prospects.

 

The US currency was supported by the Federal Reserve System representative statement. The Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said the central bank may raise short-term interest rates next month.

 

The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release from ADP. The data came lower than expected 215 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 185 thousand.

 

The euro fell amid the increased demand for the dollar. Greece reported that it planned to sign the bailout agreement until 18 August. Greece will carry out a regular payment to the ECB on 20 August and the same deadline for the third tranche agreement signing. The pair is trading in a flat after a decrease.

 

Earlier the pound fell amid the renewed speculation that the Fed can be tempted to increase the key rate in September. The pair pound/dollar slightly increased on the yesterday’s trades.

 

The pair USD/JPY has updated the highs and continues to maintain an optimistic tone with the overall demand for the dollar.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro (EUR)

 

General overview

 

The euro fell amid the US dollar in the run-up to the US government Friday's employment publication. Investors expect the data to be strong that may lead to move the Federal Reserve interest rates hike forecasts at an earlier date.

 

The euro two-week rise against the US dollar has stopped and we can observe the support of 1.0925 breakthrough. Then the pair formed a consolidation and tested this level which is the resistance now.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The approach to the level of 1.0925 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is e the support level of 1.0790.

 

 

Pound (GBP)

 

General overview

 

The latest publication showed the UK construction sector slowdown. The business activity index in the sector fell to 57.1 in July whereas it previously set the four-month high at the level of 58.1. Analysts expected the growth rate to 58.5.

 

The British pound corrective growth, formed at the level of 1.5460 gave a signal for the downward rebound. The signal served the support level of 1.5550 testing. However the pair rebounded upwards.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

 

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We may expect the growth towards 1.5670 further on we expect a fall to 1.5550, 1.5460.

 

 

Yen (JPY)

 

General overview

 

The dollar showed growth on the increased expectations that in the context of the US economy improvements the Fed will resort to the interest rates increase in the coming months, possibly as early as September.

 

The correction was short after the resistance level of 124.30 retesting. Before reaching the support level of 123.50, buyers have reversed the formed correction up to the resistance level of 124.30 and broke it upwards.

 

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We expect the 125.50 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 127.00.

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

 

07.08.2015

 

Fundamental analysis

 

This week the currency spent most of the trades in a lull. It is not surprising as we are approaching the end of the week where we expect the most significant releases and during the previous days traders just saved their strength.

 

The pair EUR/USD has recovered, responding to the US ADP data that did not meet their expectations. It turned out that it was created only 185 thousand jobs in the US private sector against the expected 215 thousand in July and 229 thousand in June. It undermined confidence in the dollar, especially in anticipation of the more labor market publication that is the NFP report. After all, if the employment level is unsatisfactory, it can erase all expectations about the possible Fed rate hike.

 

As a result, the dollar faced a sales wave against most rivals, but not for a long time. Shortly after the ADP report there was published the ISM US services sector activity index which in July rose up to 60.3 from the June's 56.0. It was quite enough to initiate the US dollar recovery against its major rivals. However, the dollar failed to maintain the leadership and strengthened only against the pound by the end of the day.

 

The Bank of England released its quarterly inflation report, the monetary policy last meeting minutes and delivered the current rate verdict. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50%.

 

According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than 3 thousand having reached to 270 thousand.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro (EUR)

 

General overview

 

The Germany industrial orders rose up by 2.0% m/m and 7.2% y/y. The German industry rapid growth is connected with the cheap euro and also with the European continuing producer prices decline, though it does not eliminate the deflation threat.

 

The corrective rebound was formed which allowed buyers to test the resistance of 1.0925.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The downward bounce potential target is 1.0790.

 

 

Pound (GBP)

 

General overview

 

The Bank of England has published the quarterly inflation forecast and the last monetary policy meeting minutes, our expectations lie in the fact that two committee members voted for a rate hike. Also the Bank of England governor Mark Carney made his speech. Later NIESR released the UK GDP forecast for July. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50%.

 

For a long time the price has been consolidating in the side corridor levels: 1.5670 - 1.5550. The resistance level of 1.5670 was repeatedly tested for durability, but without a subsequent breakthrough. The support level of 1.5550 was broken through. The price fixated under this level.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5460, 1.5390.

 

 

Yen (JPY)

 

General overview

 

The US private sector new jobs insignificant increase data have supported the yen for a short time. However, the reports about the world largest non-manufacturing sector activity growth not only returned the pair to their original positions, but also raised it up to the new intraday high.

 

The long price consolidation below the resistance level of 124.30 was followed by a breakthrough. The breakthrough was on the high volume, it is highly probable the uptrend continuation.

 

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The approach to the level of 124.30 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 125.50, 127.00.

 

 

Franc (CHF)

 

General overview

 

The dollar maintained its optimism against the Swiss franc on Wednesday after the US non-manufacturing sector activity unexpectedly strong data. The ISM non-manufacturing sector activity index was 60.3 vs. 56.2 pp in July.

 

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

 

10.08.2015

 

Fundamental analysis

 

At the end of the last week the markets tended to consolidate ahead of the Friday’s US key data output, including the labor market report. As a result, the dollar fell slightly against the EUR and JPY and in dispute with the British pound it recorded a certain "profit".

 

The US Labor Department reported that the US economy added 215,000 jobs last month, instead of the expected 223000. There was created 231,000 jobs in June and the figures were revised from 223,000.

 

Among the pairs that demonstrated the maximum volatility we should identify only the pair GBP/USD where the US dollar was supported by the information indicating a certain extent of the British regulator monetary policy prospects. Last week the Bank of England left its key interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.5%, the fund bond purchases volume also was not changed, leaving it in the amount of 375 billion pounds and has signaled that it is still preparing to start raising interest rates, but only at the beginning of next year. As a result, the pair GBP/USD has declined more than 100 points downwards.

 

There were published the BoJ meeting results- the Japanese regulator has not changed its monetary policy parameters. The market reacted to this information rather quiet and the pair USD/JPY continued to form the side trend. Nevertheless the pair closed the trades with a decrease.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro (EUR)

 

General overview

 

The euro remained within the side trend and slightly declined against the US dollar. The main decline was after the weak German industrial production and the trade balance figures publication. The Germany industrial volume fell by 1.4% in June. The market had expected a growth by 0.3%. While the country trade surplus unexpectedly fell against the expected growth.

 

Earlier the US dollar was supported by the initial jobless claims data which rose to 270K. The forecast median was 273K.

 

The short-term correction within the euro was formed that is consolidating below the resistance level of 1.0925. Then the pair broke this level upwards.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

After the support level of 1.0925 breakthrough down the way to the support levels of 1.0790 and 1.0670 will be opened.

 

 

Pound (GBP)

 

General overview

 

Last week the British pound fell sharply against the US dollar after investors learned that the Bank of England was planning to increase its key interest rate only in 2016. The pound has not changed its position after the UK trade deficit publication which increased to 9.18 billion pounds in June from 8.42 billion pounds in May.

 

The markets remain cautious ahead of the July US employment official report that suggested an increase by 223,000. The release showed a growth by 215,000.

 

Sellers have broken through and consolidated below the level of 1.5550, the level breakthrough was followed by increased volumes. Then there was a small price correction to the resistance level of 1.5550. Nevertheless, this movement was short-term and the pair tested the support level of 1.5460.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The sellers need to break below 1.5460 for a steady downward movement. The way to the marks of 1.5390 and 1.5300 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 

 

 

Yen (JPY)

 

General overview

 

The dollar grew against the yen before the US employment report publication. On Friday the Bank of Japan did not change the policy and kept the expensive stimulus program. The market had expected such a result, so its reaction was weak. Meanwhile, analysts suggest that the number of jobs grew by 223,000 in July and the unemployment rate remained at the level of 5.3 %. In fact the unemployment rate remained at the level of 5.3 % and the number of jobs grew by 215,000.

 

Having broken through the resistance level of 124.30 upwards, the upward trend within the Japanese yen has stopped. Little consolidation below the level led to the downward correction. The pair closed the trades below the level of 124.30.

 

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We expect the 124.30 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 125.50, further then towards 127.00.

 

 

Franc (CHF)

 

General overview

 

The Swiss franc has fallen against the US dollar. According to the data, the Switzerland unemployment rate remained unchanged at the level of 3.1% which coincided with the forecasts. Investors' attention was directed to the last week critical report and to the US labor market data. Analysts suggested that the number of jobs increased by 223,000 in July and the unemployment rate remained at the minimum level of 5.3% since April 2008. According to the published release the unemployment rate came out at the forecasted median and the number of jobs increased by 223,000.

 

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

 

11.08.2015

 

Fundamental analysis

 

Last week the foreign exchange market trades were under the wait and see positions’ influence that investors have taken on the eve of the July US employment release, hoping to get fresh guidance concerning the rate increases time.

 

The June and May Non-Farms were revised for an increase, in general by 14 thousand and apparently, it strengthened confidence that the Fed short-term interest rates would be raised in September and caused the dollar full-scale purchases explosion. However, the "bulls" triumph was not long, very soon the US dollar came under pressure. At the beginning of the new week it was not able to maintain its achievements against the pound besides earlier the pair pound/dollar fell amid the UK negative data.

 

The euro remained on the "float" in the dispute with the US dollar despite the weak statistics that came from the EU leading economies. The euro negative activity amid the US data was short-term and soon the euro returned all its losses, ending the day with a profit.

 

After the side consolidation the pair USD/JPY rose on the US reports, but soon it fell down. Obviously, the change of mood within this pair has been provoked by the events in the US debt market where the "treasuries" profitability has fallen sharply after the employment report publication.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro (EUR)

 

General overview

 

According to the Bank of France forecasts, the country economic growth will increase slightly in the third quarter. According to the Bank of France companies’ activity survey in July, the French 3rd quarter GDP will increase by 0.3% compared to the 2nd quarter. The Bank of France previous survey pointed out that the GDP growth in the 2nd quarter was 0.2%. The Bank of France said that the manufacturing sector and the service sector business sentiment remained unchanged compared to June.

 

There was the strong resistance level of 1.0925 breakthrough upwards on the pair EUR/USD. Then the pair increased and the resistance level of 1.1050 was broken through.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

 

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1150.

 

 

Pound (GBP)

 

General overview

 

The first day of the week has passed in the absence of any important statistics. The market reacted only on the Federal Open Market Committee members Fisher and Lockhart speeches. Both members support the early rate hike at least twice before the end of the year. So it was expected quite harsh rhetoric. Investors are waiting for the UK labor market indicators which are scheduled for Wednesday.

 

The pair GBP/USD is consolidating above the strong support level of 1.5460. then the pair broke through the resistance level of 1.5550.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

 

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

 

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

When the price consolidates it may go downwards. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5550 and 1.5460.

 

 

Yen (JPY)

 

General overview

 

The yen fell against the dollar after the macroeconomic statistics publication. The foreign economic activity results marked the surplus emergence in the June trade balance - +102.7 billion yen against the earlier 47.3 billion yen, but the current account balances reduction to 588 billion yen after 1880.9 billion yen in May.

 

There was the upward trend breakthrough within the pair USD/JPY. There is a short-term correction near the level of 124.50 that is playing the role of a resistance.

 

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We suppose the pair will go to 125.50 first after a consolidation. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 127.00.

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

 

12.08.2015

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The week beginning was not successful for the US dollar. The US dollar fell against GBP and EUR, still it recorded quite insignificant "profit" against JPY. There was published the US economy important statistics and, probably, the US dollar decline can be related to the technical factors as well as to the grown doubts that the Fed will begin the policy tightening next month.

 

The euro sharp rise helped the deputy chairman S. Fisher comments. He said that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates in September while it is low inflation. The US Federal Reserve representative D. Lockhart also mentioned in his speech about the low inflation.

 

In response to these statements the dollar sharply fell down along the whole fronts. The pair EUR/USD and the pair GBP/USD have increased. Only the pair USD/JPY showed the dollar’s growth.

 

The fact is that the market considered the possibility of the Fed September rate hike almost as a settled issue. Now, when Lockhart excluded the word "September" from his rhetoric, the event no longer looks so certain. It is likely that the Friday's Fed data also influenced it. In any case, it would mean at least the dollar temporary weakening against most of its competitors.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro (EUR)

 

General overview

 

The difference between the ECB and the Fed policy directions remains the main medium-term driver for the pair. The July Italy CPI was published which was expected to 0.2 y/y and -0.1 m/m. In fact, the data has not changed, confirming the traders’ forecasts. The ZEW Institute German current economic environment index was in the center of our attention. In August, the figure is expected to reach 64.5 against 63.9. In fact the data came out at the level of 65.7.

 

It is noted the resistance level of 1.1050 to be tested. The bulls failed to break it.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1050. After breaking 1.1050 the buyers may go to 1.1150.

 

 

Pound (GBP)

 

General overview

 

According to the BRC, the UK retail sales in the same stores fell by 1.2% y/y vs. 1.8% y/y in July. It was expected a decline by 1.0%. The UK average wage reports for June are of great interest as well as July jobless claims number changes for July. The news output is expected on Wednesday.

 

It was the resistance level of 1.5550 breakthrough within the pair GBP/USD. The pair is consolidating.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

 

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The buyers need to break above 1.5670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5775 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 

 

Yen (JPY)

 

General overview

 

The Japanese economic data showed positive changes in the money supply – the M2 aggregate in July increased to 4.1% y/y vs. 3.9% y/y in June and the M3 aggregate rose up to 3.3% y/y from 3.2% y/y. The equipment orders dynamics was less encouraging – it was recorded 1.6% y/y in July against 6.6 y/y in the previous period.

 

It is noted the pair USD/JPY growth after the rebound from the support level of 124.30.

 

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

After the resistance level of 125.50 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance 127.00 will be opened.

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

 

13.08.2015

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The China Central Bank's decision was the main event that devalued the yuan. The US currency strengthened against all the major opponents in the light of this, still it was not able to keep the leading position.

 

The message that Greeks have reached an agreement with creditors and will receive assistance in the framework of the regular lending program caused European majors quite full-scale purchases which led to the US dollar decline against the euro to the end of the session and in the dispute with the pound.

 

The China’s decision to devalue the yuan has put pressure on the pound as it was considered it would be able to strengthen the disinflation pressure in the UK and to extend the low inflation period in the United Kingdom which leads to the raising rates transfer at a later date.

 

The measures taken by China have put pressure on the Japanese currency as well. Another reason to sell the yen was the Japan Prime Minister advisors E. Honda’s statements who said that if the expected GDP data pointed to the sharp decline in the second quarter there would be a need to deploy a new fiscal stimulus.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro (EUR)

 

General overview

 

According to the Bank of France, the France payments balance current account surplus has grown for June due to the foreign trade deficit reduction. The payments balance current account surplus amounted to 1 billion euro against 200 million euro in May. The trade deficit fell to 1 billion euro from 1.7 billion euro in June.

 

The euro managed to break through above the key resistance level of 1.1050. Due to this resistance breakthrough, buyers got the way to the strong resistance level of 1.1150 that was also broken.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1260, 1.1450.

 

 

Pound (GBP)

 

General overview

 

Taking into account bonuses, the UK average wage fell to 2.4% in June against the earlier 3.2%, but it was expected a decline to 2.8%. The number of jobless claims further declined than expected: -4.9K vs. 1.5K. The debate figure was revised downwards from 7.0K to 0.2K. The unemployment rate has not changed and confirmed the forecasts - 5.6%.

 

Buyers corrected the price to the level of 1.5610 on the low volumes. It was expected the given level testing but bulls did not test it.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

If the price fixates above the resistance 1.5670, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.5775 and 1.5950.

 

 

Yen (JPY)

 

General overview

 

The Japan monetary policy meeting minutes were published in the Asian session on Tuesday. We received the industrial production positive results, the industrial production volume increased to 1.1% m/m which is higher than the growth expectations up to 0.8%. The service sector business activity index came out better than expected: 0.3% m/m against the growth expectations up to 0.1% m/m while the index was -0.7% m/m last month.

 

The price consolidated above the support level of 124.30. However the pair fell below this level amid the weakened dollar. Now the mark of 124.30 is playing the role of a strong resistance.

 

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

 

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 123.50. the next target is the level of 122.40.

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

 

14.08.2015

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The US dollar got under strong pressure on its main opponents’ part this week it had fallen against the euro, the pound and the yen. The reason was the optimism decline about the US rapid rate hike amid the Chinese yuan decline that continued to fall after its devaluation.

 

The pair EUR/USD raised slightly amid the European stock exchanges sales. Investors closed their long positions on the equity markets and transferred it to the bond market which supported demand for the euro. After a decrease the pair grew by the end of the trades.

 

By the end of the day the pair GBP / USD had increased amid the oil prices stabilization. The US Energy Department has reported the crude oil reserves reduction for the third consecutive week that contributed to the Brent brand consolidation. After an increase the pound also consolidated.

 

The rapidly growing opinions about the US rapid rate hike illusory prospects drove down the pair dollar / yen. The Japanese currency strengthened in the last session against the US dollar. However, the US dollar was able to neutralize some of the losses by the end of the trades with the changes support in the US government debt market where the "Treasuries" prices declined slightly after the initial growth. However, the pair closed the yesterday’s trades closed with the pair’s decrease.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro (EUR)

 

General overview

 

According to the July final report the consumer price index increased by 0.2%. A month earlier the index value has decreased by 0.1%. These figures coincide with the analysts’ forecast. The France consumer price index decreased by 0.4% in July compared with the previous month after a decline by 0.1% a month earlier. These figures coincide with the analysts’ forecasts.

 

According to the forecasts, the US jobless claims had to remain unchanged and fix 270 thousand claims. The data came out at the level of 274 thousand.

 

The upward trend reversed towards the correction. The correctional price reduction was on the low volumes. The pair fell below the support level of 1.1150, but then it increased again.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1150. After breaking 1.1150 the buyers may go to 1.1260.

 

 

Pound (GBP)

 

General overview

 

The «UK housing prices balance indicator by RICS» rose more than expected for the last month. According to the report prepared by the British Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), the indicator (given to the seasonal fluctuations) was 44% compared with 40% the previous month. Experts expected the rate growth for the last month to 42%.

 

The United States provided the retail sales important data in July and the number of initial jobless claims. The retail sales data in July increased by 0,6% and the initial jobless claims came out less by 4 000 the forecasted median.

 

Buyers have broken through and consolidated above the level of 1.5550. The level breakthrough was on the low volumes, but it opened the way for the resistance level of 1.5670. Then the pair rebounded downwards and formed a consolidation.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The upward bounce potential target are 1.5670, 1.5775.

 

 

Yen (JPY)

 

General overview

 

The Japan economic showed the machinery and equipment orders reduction by 7.9% m/m in June while the strongest decline was forecasted - by 6.5% m/m. However, it did not affect the market.

 

We did not expect the US retail sales publication better than the consensus forecast. The initial jobless claims report was expected unchanged at the level of 270K. The release showed 274K.

 

The pair USD/JPY is showing a technical recovery from the minimum when the dollar turned downwards and fell against other major currencies. However, the trades are below the key resistance of 125.50.

 

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

 

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

If the price fixates below the support 125.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 123.50 and 122.40.

 

 

Franc (CHF)

 

General overview

 

The dollar index has fallen amid the Treasury bond yields sharp decline in connection with speculations, concerning the China measures on the yuan devaluation decline that will lead to the «deflation exports" that will force the Fed to postpone interest rates increase at least until December. According to the data, the Switzerland import and producer price index weakened by -0.1% m/m in June to -0.3% m/m in July and from -6.1% y/y to -6.4% y/y.

 

Investors focused their attention on the jobless claims report which is expected to reach the level of 270,000 but the data showed a growth to 274,000.

 

The continued price consolidation below the resistance level of 0.9850 was followed by an active decline by more than 200 points. The prices declined to the support near 0.9750. then the pair rebounded upwards and broke through this level upwards.

 

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

 

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The approach to the level of 0.9540 may lead to a price rebound upwards.

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

 

17.08.2015

 

Fundamental analysis

 

Last week the US dollar was able to compensate only some of the lost positions. The dollar was supported by the US economic data – the US July retail sales suggested that the US economy is reviving; it brings the Fed monetary policy tightening beginning. According to the Commerce Department, the volume sales rose up by 0.6% in July. The messages about the jobless claims were less optimistic - 274 thousand when it was expected 270 thousand, still it slightly disappointed traders.

 

The pair EUR/USD had decreased by the end of the day amid the long positions profit taking after the week uptrend. Investors focused their attention on the Euro zone GDP and its leading countries preliminary data. The forecasts assumed that the main economic indicator will grow by 0.4% q/q and 1.3% y/y after a 0.4% m/m, 1.0% y/y in the first quarter.

 

By the end of the day the sterling slightly increased. Earlier the pair GBP/USD had decreased amid the "black gold" market sales. The British currency is traditionally very sensitive to the Brent oil quotations changes.

 

The pair USD/JPY had increased amid the global equity markets correction which put pressure on the "safe haven" yen. Nevertheless, the pair showed a decrease by the end of the day.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro (EUR)

 

General overview

 

Investors' attention is drawn to the euro zone second quarter GDP publication. The Germany economic growth accelerated amid the exports’ increase, but the France GDP remained in the flat, such differences pose a threat to the sustainable recovery prospects. The German GDP rose up by 0.4% compared with the previous quarter, the forecast was 0.5% and its growth amounted to 1.8% in annual terms. The German economy rose up by 0.3% q/q in the first quarter.

 

The corrective weakness, formed by the resistance level of 1.1150, has reversed upwards. The signal for the reversal was the resistance level of 1.1150 retesting. The trades closed below this level.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is cosolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We expect the 1.1150 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1260, further then towards 1.1420.

 

 

Pound (GBP)

 

General overview

 

At the end of the day the US and the UK 10 years government bond yields reached the maximum level the last trading week which is a "bearish" factor for the British currency.

 

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission last week report will show the total “pure” position dramatic decrease for the pound sales.

 

A little before reaching the resistance level of 1.5670, the pound upward trend was reversed for the short-term correction. After a short-term consolidation the pair grew again.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The buyers need to break above 1.5670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5775 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 

 

Yen (JPY)

 

General overview

 

The US and Japan government bond yields are increasing that is a "bullish" factor for the dollar as it increases the US assets attractiveness for institutional investors.

 

The world leading stock exchanges capital inflow forces traders to increase the carry trade operations through the Japanese yen as a funding currency. In this context, the yen will be under pressure that will have positive impact on the US dollar.

 

The upward trend within the Japanese yen was sharply reversed downwards, breaking through on its way the strong support level of 124.30. Now the mark of 124.30 is playing a role of the resistance level. There was a continuous consolidation formed below this level.

 

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

 

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 122.40 testing soon. The level of 122.40 may lead to the price consolidation.

 

 

Franc (CHF)

 

General overview

 

It was expected that the US statistics would show the all published indicators positive dynamics. The July producer price index (PPI) was supposed to show a slowdown, still with the month growth by + 0.1% m/m after a 0.4% m/m in June, the industrial production release in the same month was expected with increase by 0.4% m/m vs. 0.3% m/m in June and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary index was expected with an increase over the August last period to the level of 94.0 from the previous level of 93.3.

 

The US dollar consolidated in the pair with the Swiss franc after its decline to the support near 0.9750. Earlier the pair rebounded from the resistance level of 0.9850.

 

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

 

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We advise to consider short positions with the first target - 0.9750. After fixing below the first target, the level 0.9650 will become the next one. The buyers need to break above 0.9850 for a steady growth.

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

 

18.08.2015

 

Fundamental analysis

 

There was a multidirectional movement in the currency market. The chief troublemaker was the China Central Bank, it did not give any reason for the emotions surge and set the daily yuan fixing against the dollar almost without changes compared with the previous day, it has made it clear that the bank keeps to its stabilization promises.

 

By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the weak France, Germany and the Eurozone GDP data. The Eurozone and its major countries GDP assessment showed a growth, but it was worse than forecasted. The euro was supported by the Greece policy information plan.

 

the pair GBP/USD had increased amid the UK and the US negative bond yields decline. In addition, the impression was caused by the UK controversial employment report somewhat blunted and the pound rose up against the US dollar in the news absence that can add negativity. However the pair’s growth was short-term and the pair fell by the end of the day.

 

By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had decreased amid the investors escape from the carry trade transactions which supported the demand for the yen as a funding currency. The Japan stock market has declined that slightly increased interest to the yen, the US shares increase allowed the dollar only to neutralize some of the losses.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro (EUR)

 

General overview

 

The EU published its June trade balance. The data came out at the level of 26.4B.

 

The German 10-year bond yields are declining relative to their US, UK and Australian counterparts, making European assets less attractive to investors.

 

The resistance level of 1.1150 was tested twice last week. The repeated level of 1.1130 testing was followed by the active prices decline with the following bullish trend reversal. The pair is trading around the support level of 1.1050.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The approach to the level of 1.1050 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.1150, 1.1260.

 

 

Pound (GBP)

 

General overview

 

The June UK weak labor market raise doubts on the monetary tightening prospects by the Bank of England in 2016. The UK unemployment rate in the second quarter rose up by 0.1% while the US unemployment rate has decreased by 0.2%.

 

The September USA rate hike expectations are intensified amid the positive economic data. In addition, the dollar is supported by the oil prices decline.

 

The resistance level of 1.5670 testing was followed by the pair rebound downwards.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We may expect the consolidation around the support level of 1.5550 further on we expect a growth to 1.5670, 1.5775.

 

 

Yen (JPY)

 

General overview

 

The second quarter Japan GDP preliminary data showed -0.4% q/q vs. 1.1% q/q in the first quarter and the forecast was -0.5% q/q. These messages did not evoke any emotions in the market.

 

On Wednesday the Japan foreign trade assessment will be presented - it is expected the exports increase and the imports reduction which is able to bring the trade balance deficit to the minimum.

 

The level of 124.30 breakthrough was followed by the reversal level testing. Now this mark acts as a strong support where the continuous consolidation was formed.

 

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

 

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

Currently, the price is trading above the support level of 124.30. If the pair breaks it we expect the decrease to 123.50.

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

 

18.11.2015

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The euro sharply fell against the dollar amid the risk appetite decline after the Paris terrorist attacks reports. The temporary support was the Eurozone October consumer price index (CPI) last estimate which revised the preliminary results. The indicator was increased to 0.1% y/y despite the fact that it previously recorded 0.0% y/y after - 0.1% y/y in September. The ZEW Institute German and the Eurozone business sentiment reports were the main event yesterday. The data came out better then forecasted 6,0 at the level of 10,4.

 

The British pound also fell against the dollar. However, the "cable" losses were not so significant. Apparently, the pound stability continues to provide its appeal as the most high-yielding currency among the majors. The UK news was filled with important information for the pound, namely the inflation data which is one of the main indicators, according to which BoE corrects its monetary policy. By the end of the day the pair increased.

 

The Japanese important economic news was not published; the yen continues to decline against the dollar, probably, on the lingering sentiment for the greenback and on the Japanese stock market optimism where the Nikkei grew by 1.22%.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro (EUR)

 

General overview

 

The Eurozone October consumer prices index came out in its final assessment, the index was revised upwards. The total CPI was 0.1% versus 0.0% in the preliminary estimate and the forecast was with no changes, the core CPI was revised downwards from 1.0% y/y to 1.1% y/y. The data made no impression on the market. The ZEW economic sentiment index was published as well yesterday. It came out at the level of 10,4.

 

The price resumed to its decline. The price consolidated below the level of 1.0730 and tried to test the support of 1.0630. The trade is at this level now. Indicators again indicate the "bearish" sentiment predominance.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

After the support level of 1.0630 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0550 will be opened.

 

 

Pound (GBP)

 

General overview

 

The pound high stability may be the result not only the political situation in France, but also because of the UK inflation data where the October retail price index was expected with a growth from 0.8% y/y to 0.9% y/y. In fact the index came out at the level of 0.7%. The UK October consumer price index was expected at the same level of 1.0% y/y but showed a growth to 1.1%.

 

The price is consolidating. After the support successful of 1.5200 breakthrough bears sent the price lower to the mark of 1.5150. Then the pair increased above the resistance level of 1.5200.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

 

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. We do not exclude the growth to 1.5300.

 

 

Yen (JPY)

 

General overview

 

The Japanese 3rd quarter GDP in the 2nd preliminary estimate was revised to -0.2% against -0.1%. The US important economic indices were published - the consumer price index and the industrial production volume. These data put pressure on the yen. However the dollar’s strengthening on the market allowed the pair to grow.

 

The pair is trying to consolidate above the level of 123.20. After this mark successful breakthrough bears took over the initiative and sent the instrument downwards, trying to test the level from the top.

 

The price is finding the first support at 123.20, the next one is 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.80, the next one is at 124.30.

 

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We suppose the pair will go to 123.80 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 124.30.

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

 

19.11.2015

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The German ZEW institute business climate showed the figures better than the consensus forecast, still this indicator downward trend is still strong. On the contrary, the United States have pleased traders with the October moderately positive inflation data. In the light of this the United States and the Germany bond yields grew that increases the investments’ attractiveness in the US assets. The FOMC authoritative representative U.Dadli gave his speech in the United States. He said that the rates growth would be a good news for the dollar. The pair euro/dollar was trading in a flat.

 

The US and the UK CPI differential profitability indicators declined in favor of the latter in October which caused the UK government bond yields increase relative to their US and Germany counterparts. The side trades were noted in the pair pound/dollar.

 

According to the third quarter GDP data, Japan slipped into the technical recession. The US October inflation showed a moderate growth that reinforced investors' expectations, regarding the Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening possibility. The Japanese yen is an obvious outsider among the other pairs. The pair dollar/yen increased.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro (EUR)

 

General overview

 

The sentiment related with the ECB and the Fed multi-directional policy continued to help the US dollar to keep the leadership. The European statistics has not published important news, the September construction volume data did not change the market sentiment. After M. Draghi unequivocal sayings about the intention to increase the monetary policy easing, the ECB representatives' statements were ignored.

 

The pair shows a consolidation above the support level of 1.0630 after its reduction and this level testing.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

If the price fixates below the support 1.0630, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.0550.

 

 

Pound (GBP)

 

General overview

 

The pound was supported by the UK inflation data. The UK did not publish any important news. The news background was filled with the Bank of England representatives’ speeches that were ignored. Investors were waiting for the US FOMC last meeting reports.

 

"Bulls" have not been able to renew their attempts to increase to the resistance level of 1.5300. The price broke through the support level of 1.5200 but then it returned above this level. The pair started its consolidation.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

 

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The pair can rebound to the resistance level of 1.5300. After breaking 1.5300 the buyers may go to 1.5390.

 

 

Yen (JPY)

 

General overview

 

The pair has slightly increased, supported by the continuing dollar growth and the Japan stock market optimism growth. However, there was not any high activity at the market. The price demonstrated the slight decline caused by the technical factors and the lack of Japanese economic news. The Fed minutes have been published, but they have not had any effect on the dollar.

 

The price continued its growth, but was stopped below the mark of 123.80.

 

The price is finding the first support at 123.20, the next one is 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.80, the next one is at 124.30.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The buyers need to break above 123.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 124.30 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

 

20.11.2015

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The US Federal Reserve meeting minutes could not disappoint investors. Most the Fed managers expect the necessary conditions to the interest rates increase to be achieved by the December meeting. There was the risks reduction that was caused by the trading partners’ economic slowdown. The fundamental background is still negative for the single European currency. However, the pair corrected upwards yesterday.

 

The UK and the US government bond yields expanded in favor of the latter which reduces the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. The commodity market showed the "bearish" sentiment that supports the US currency. Nevertheless, the pound strengthened against the dollar.

 

The US inflation short-term forecast was revised towards the positive direction; the medium-term view remains the same. Against this background, the dollar index basket (USDX) strengthened. Japan is in the technical recession, due to many factors, one of which is the China business activity slowdown which is one of the Japan leading trade partners. The Bank of Japan meeting was held where the country monetary policy was discussed. The bank decided not to change it.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro (EUR)

 

General overview

 

The US Treasury two-year bond yields is once again demonstrating growth that supports the demand for the US dollar. Investors are still pessimistic about the European assets in the bond market: the German 10-year government bonds are reducing relative to their US and the UK counterparts. The number of the US initial jobless claims report was published. The report showed the number that coincides with the forecast - 271K.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The approach to the level of 1.0730 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.0630, 1.0550.

 

 

Pound (GBP)

 

General overview

 

The UK National Statistics Office published the October retail sales report. The consensus forecast pointed out to the retail sector sales growth slowdown by 0.4% compared with the previous month as the September sales increased by 1.9%. In fact the index fell by 0,6%. The UK unemployment fell to their lowest levels since mid-2008, the third quarter average earnings increased by 3% in annual terms.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We believe the growth will be continued now. After breaking 1.5300 the buyers may go to 1.5390.

 

 

Yen (JPY)

 

General overview

 

The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting results was the main event of the day. It was the monetary regulator first meeting after Japan fell into the technical recession. The low wage growth constrains household spending. The Japanese currency growth against the US dollar to 2.16% in the third quarter contributed to the exports decline which increased the trade deficit.

 

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

 

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We expect the 123.20 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 123.80.

 

 

Franc (CHF)

 

General overview

 

The Swiss franc rose slightly after the FOMC minutes publication. The Switzerland government reported that Jordan can hold intervention in the currency market. According to his words, negative rates lead to the overvalued franc.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is 0.9960. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0190, the next one is at 1.0280.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0190. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0280.

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

 

23.11.2015

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The initial jobless claims number fell by 5 thousand till 271 thousand. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank business activity report has shown a much more positive trend than it was forecasted - the index rose up by 1.9 in November against the October 4.5 with the improvement expectations only to -1.0. The prospects can be judged to some extent by indicators which increased by new orders index to -3.7 against -10.6, still the employment rose up to 2.6 after the previous -1.7.

 

The euro zone and the US important macroeconomic data have not been published. The ECB President Mario Draghi gave his speech. The monetary regulator has once again confirmed its intention to change the ECB monetary policy if needed, still traders have not received a clear signal from him. Пара EUR/USD slightly fell by the end of the day.

 

In the absence of interesting macroeconomic releases the last trading day of the week, traders have closely followed the debt and commodity markets dynamics. The UK credit markets government bond yields are reducing relative to their US counterparts. The commodity market has stabilized after the strong sales in the strong negative fundamental trend. By the end of the trades the pair GBP/USD sharply fell.

 

The United States and Japan have absolutely opposite macroeconomic statistics which the market gets during autumn. The United States is encouraging investors with the labor market and consumer spending positive data that has forced to think seriously about the Fed interest rates raising on December 16th. Even the dollar revaluation factor has had no significant negative influence. The pair USD/JPY closed the week trades with a decrease.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro (EUR)

 

General overview

 

It is hard to ignore the euro zone payments balance dynamics that is an important macroeconomic indicator. The trades surplus was 73.4 billion euros in the third quarter of 2015 which is less by 7.08% than it was in the second quarter, but by 10.7% more than in the same period of the last year. The positive dynamics in comparison with the year 2014 is related to the single European currency devaluation.

 

“Bulls” have attempted to start a growth. The price was at the level of 1.0730 and rebound downwards, trades were held with a decrease to the mark of 1.0630.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550.

 

 

Pound (GBP)

 

General overview

 

The UK government bond yields are declining relative to their German counterparts. The British Industry Confederation (CBI) data were not so encouraging that showed the industrial production index decreased in November to -6 against the earlier 4 and the orders indicator reduction to -11 from -8 in October.

 

The "bulls" attempt to continue growth has failed. The resistance at the level of 1.5300 has been only tested. The price could not break through that mark and returned downwards. The support level of 1.5200 was broken through.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.5150, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

 

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The buyers need to break above 1.5200 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5300 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 

 

Yen (JPY)

 

General overview

 

The pair dollar/yen has declined. In addition to general market sentiment, formed under the influence of the Fed protocols content, sales within this pair were caused by disappointment that the Bank of Japan decided to keep its monetary policy unchanged when a certain part of the market still hoped to hear about the leniency programs capacity.

 

The pair continued its decline to the mark of 122.40 but it was stopped. The pair formed a consolidation.

 

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

 

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We suppose the pair will go to 122.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 121.30.

 

 

Franc (CHF)

 

General overview

 

The decrease in this pair stopped. Earlier the pair USD / CHF continued to fall while the dollar was declining on all fronts after the Fed officials’ comments. The Federal Reserve Bank manager Cleveland Loretta Mester said that the Fed has almost reached the employment targets. She is confident that the inflation target of 2% can be achieved despite the oil prices decline and the dollar growth. She believes that the longer delay is (with higher rates), the higher financial imbalances chances are. By the end of the trades the pair showed a growth.

 

The pair dollar / franc stopped its correctional movement. The pair increased and tested the level of 1.0190.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is 0.9960. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0190, the next one is at 1.0280.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

After the resistance level of 1.0190 breakthrough upward the way to the resistance 1.0280 will be opened.

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

 

24.11.2015

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The November Germany manufacturing sector business climate report has been published by Markit Economics. The data output was at the level of 52.00 which indicates the moderately positive dynamics and shall give a short-term support for the single European currency. The employment and average earnings growth with the interest rates reduction on 30-year mortgages allowed banks to increase the mortgage lending in October. In this connection, the data is expected to be a little better than the forecasted medians, the data came out at the level 52,6. It is impossible to ignore the ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech last week. The ECB governor told: "We'll do everything we need to do for the early inflation rising". The pair euro/dollar was trading in a side corridor.

 

Now the debt market dynamics is on the bears’ side in the pair GBP/USD: the UK government bond yields have been declining for last three trading days relative to their US and Germany counterparts which reduces the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. Last week CBI again reported about the industrial orders volume reduction and the negative trend has been lasting for seven months in a row. The pair pound/dollar continued its decrease.

 

The Japanese and the US government bond yields have been declining for last two trading days which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the Japanese assets. The dollar was supported by the "black gold" market pessimistic sentiments: the Baker Hughes release was not able to provide strong support to the oil quotations, despite the fact that the number of drilling rigs decreased by 10 units. The pair dollar/yen fell by the end of the trades.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro (EUR)

 

General overview

 

The euro zone monetary authorities once again underlined that they were ready to go for the monetary policy further easing if necessary. However, the debt market dynamics is on the euro bulls side now: The German 10-year government bond yields are growing relative to their US and the UK counterparts.

 

The last week minimum of 1.0630 was updated. Sellers managed to update and consolidate below this mark. Until recently this support started to play the resistance role.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0420.

 

 

Pound (GBP)

 

General overview

 

The pound has increased by 3.4% over the last eighteen months against its main trading partner which increases the risk for the UK exporters. The CBI respondents identified two key negative factors: the strong pound and the global economic growth weakness.

 

The British pound showed a decrease from the resistance level of 1.5300. The pair broke through the support levels of 1.5200 and 1.5150. The price reached the levels amid the low volumes, but with an increased volatility.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

 

There is a confirmed and a srong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5040.

 

 

Yen (JPY)

 

General overview

 

There was the US secondary market home sales positive publication. However the data came out at the level 5,36M, the forecast was 5,40M. The dollar rally comes to the end; traders have already priced in a bet the December Fed raising interest rates forecast. The final decision will depend on the Fed economic data, so the personal consumption expenditures deflator which will be released on Wednesday will determine whether the US monetary tightening cycle starts in 2015 or not.

 

The buyers’ previous attempts to break through above the resistance level of 122.40 were unsuccessful. The pair rebounded downward from this level.

 

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

 

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 122.40 and 121.30.

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

 

25.11.2014

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The IFO Institute published the November Germany business climate data. The data came out better then forecasted 108,2 at the level of 109,0. The Markit PMI composite index shows the number of optimists’ growth among the purchasing managers. The US GDP was revised upwards amid the positive macroeconomic indicators. This factor has spurred the US two –year Treasury bonds growth which supported the dollar. However the pair closed the trades with a slight increase.

 

The Britain inflation parliamentary hearings results were interpreted quite negatively by traders. The medium-term forecast was revised to the negative side amid the oil prices decline, the British currency growth against the main trading partner (euro). In the light of this, the monetary authorities have stated once again that interest rates will not be raised in 2016. the pair pound/dollar sharply fell.

 

The US third quarter GDP revised data made investors open long positions as the Japanese and the US indicators’ differential has been expanded even further in favor of the latter as Japan has slipped into the technical recession. The current trend is reflected in the debt market which has led to the US Treasury bonds growth for a short-time which is traditionally a strong positive factor for the dollar. We cannot ignore the demand dynamics for the "risky assets". However the dollar’s strengthening was short-term and the pair USD/JPY decreased.

 

 

Euro (EUR)

 

General overview

 

The EUR index lost 4.08% at the beginning of the fourth quarter which is a positive factor on the euro zone net exports and will contribute to the production volume growth and the unemployment reduction in the medium term. The Germany and the US government bond yields reduction have supported the euro bulls.

 

Sellers tried to break through and consolidate below the strong support level of 1.0630. However the pair closed the trades above this level.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.0630, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0730, the next one is at 1.0800.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The approach to the level of 1.1630 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.0730, 1.0800.

 

 

Pound (GBP)

 

General overview

 

The "bearish" trend is gaining momentum and the British pound rushed to the current month minimum values. The UK government bond yields continued to decline on the bond market relative to their US and Germany counterparts which reduced the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets.

 

Breaking through the support level of 1.5150, the downward trend has managed to test the nearest target that is the mark of 1.5100. After the level of 1.5150 testing there was a consolidation with the downward trend continuation. The bears fixated the price below the level of 1.5100.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We expect the 1.5100 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5150.

 

 

Yen (JPY)

 

General overview

 

The "bullish" sentiments have prevailed. The stock markets’ upward trend with the high-yield cross-rates increase indicated the "risk appetite presence among investors" which had a negative impact on the Japanese yen as a funding currency. However the yen became a leader again and the pair USD/JPY fell.

 

The medium-term bullish trend was stopped at the resistance level of 123.80 and turned downwards for a correction. Due to the formed correction sellers break through the mark of 123.20 and tested the support level of 122.40.

 

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

If the price fixates below the support 122.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 122.40.

 

 

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

 

26.11.2015

 

Fundamental analysis

 

There is a long weekend in the USD amid the Thanksgiving Day celebration. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than forecasted 273 thousand having fallen to 260 thousand.

 

The euro continued its sluggish recovery against the US dollar. The Germany GDP increased by 0.3% in the third quarter. The Germany economic expectations, business optimism and the current situation assessment indices were higher than the predicted values. The US GDP report was revised upwards to the mark of 2.1%. However, the pair euro/dollar fell by the end of the day.

 

The UK calendar was empty and investors had to focus their attention on the US data. The course of trades was determined by the debt and the equity markets dynamics. The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s speech excited the market a little bit as he noted the inflation decrease and the possible soft monetary policy period extension. The pair pound/dollar slightly increased.

 

The third quarter US GDP got the US and Japan government bond yields to increase. The Japanese currency continued to grow against the US dollar, despite the good overseas statistics. The yen regained its reserve currency status amid the risky assets escape. However, the pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a growth.

 

 

Euro (EUR)

 

General overview

 

We think that the euro grew only due to the need from time to time to be corrected. The US currency continued to be in demand as the two-year Treasury bond yields are now in the field of multi-year highs. Amid this fact the pair EUR/USD decreased.

 

The pair EUR/USD consolidated above the support level of 1.0630. The price reached this level amid the low volumes then it formed a consolidation. Then there was the support level of 1.0630 breakthrough.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The sellers need to break below 1.0550 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.0420 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 

 

Pound (GBP)

 

General overview

 

The UK/US and Germany credit markets spreads have stabilized after the week of contraction. The US traders left the market for a long weekend amid the Thanksgiving national holiday.

 

There was a strong support level of 1.5100 breakthrough. Sellers broke through but could not fixate below. This level was broken upwards.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5040 soon.

 

 

Yen (JPY)

 

General overview

 

The Japanese currency continued to grow against the US dollar. There was that upward trend in the stock market. – The "protective" communal sector was the decline leader that indicates the risk appetite increase among investors and put pressure on the yen as a funding currency. As a result the dollar became a leader.

 

The USD/JPY downward correction stopped at the support level of 122.40. Sellers lowered the price to this level. The price reached the level amid the low volumes that signaled about the downward correction easing. There was price upwards rebound.

 

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

After the support level of 122.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 121.30 will be opened.

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

 

27.11.2015

 

Fundamental analysis

 

In economic news, the US durable goods orders positive releases and the jobless claims got the pair EUR/USD to the fresh low for the last seven months. The US important macroeconomic statistics have not been published amid the day off due to the Thanksgiving celebration. Europe published important reports, excluding the Spain GDP for the 3 rd quarter (3,4% y/y and 0,8% q/q) and the euro zone M3 money supply (growth by 5,3%).

 

The pair GBP/USD has managed to recover after a decline. The Cable was supported after the UK Budget Responsibility Office raised the country GDP forecast for the next year to 2.4%. The report also informs about the budget surplus prospects and the labor market improvements.

 

The yen was supported by the Bank of Japan minutes which pointed to the risk control concern for the economic growth and the inflation. The most favorable statistics gave quotations additional stimulus to growth. There was a weak volatility in the market amid the holiday in the USA.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro (EUR)

 

General overview

 

The US did not publish any important macroeconomic statistics; moreover, the United States had a day off. The American traders left the market for a long weekend to celebrate Thanksgiving in a good mood - the dollar is trading near the multi-year highs.

 

In general the technical studies remain bearish. There was the support level of 1.0630 breakthrough. The price fixated below this level and formed a consolidation.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The trend is a down side. The approach to the level of 1.0630 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.0550, 1.0420.

 

 

Pound (GBP)

 

General overview

 

The UK debt market government bond yields have been growing for the last few days in relation to their US and Germany counterparts which increases the investments’ attractiveness into the British assets. As the United States has a day off on Thursday – amid the low liquidity "bulls" opened long positions, based the corrective movement development.

 

Sellers have not been able to consolidate below the strong support level of 1.5100. The level reverse testing was followed by its breakthrough upwards. The resistance level of 1.5150 was the potential target for a correction.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5150, the next one is at 1.5200.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

If the price fixates below the support 1.5100, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5040.

 

 

Yen (JPY)

 

General overview

 

The investors "risk appetite" growth will contribute to the carry trade operations increase through the Japanese yen as a funding currency and may encourage "bulls" to long. The US traders’ absence caused the low liquidity. The US celebrated Thanksgiving Day on Thursday. There was weak volatility after the growth.

 

Sellers lowered the price to the support level of 122.40. The price reached the level amid the low volumes that signaled about the downward correction weakening.

 

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

If the price breaks 122.40 down it will open the way to the support level of 121.30.

 

 

Franc (CHF)

 

General overview

 

The Swiss franc came against the dollar. The Switzerland industrial orders report amounted to -5.1% vs. -2.4% previously. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank said about the US economic growth decrease in the fourth quarter from 2.3% to + 1.8% for the year. The decrease is connected with the consumer spending rate reduction from 3.1% to 2.2%.

 

The pair has stabilized. The price fixated above the support level of 1.0190.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.0190, the next one is 1.0100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0280, the next one is at 1.0370.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement shows. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0280. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0370.

 

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

 

30.11.2015

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The pair EUR/USD continued its lateral trend amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics, as well as the low liquidity due to the Thanksgiving Day in the United States. The global equity market shows an upward trend, the Germany high-tech sector was the growth leader. This factor signaled abound the "risky assets" demand which had a negative impact on the euro as a funding currency. According to the dollar index, the quotations were near the psychological level of 100.00.

 

The third quarter UK GDP came out. The data is at the forecasted level: 0,5% (q/q) and 2,3% (y/y). The third quarter unemployment rate decreased by 0.3% to the level of 5.3%. This is the highest rate of the unemployment decline in 2015. The average wage increased by 3% on an annualized basis in this period which indicates the household spending growth and is a welcome factor for the economic growth. The data output at the level of 0.6% supported the British currency. However by the end of the trades the pair GBP/USD decreased.

 

Japan has published a bloc of important macroeconomic statistics where the inflation: 0,0% (y/y). The CPI has increased by 0.58% for the first nine months of this year while the average earnings grew by only 0.25%. Thus, the population real incomes have reduced and in that respect, the Bank of Japan governor H. Kuroda told about the weak wage dynamics at the monetary regulator last meeting. The Japanese 10-year government bond yields which reflect the inflation investors' expectations fell by 4 bp in October. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen slightly increased.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro (EUR)

 

General overview

 

The euro remained under the downward pressure against the US dollar in anticipation of the upcoming ECB meeting. Investors' expectations regarding the ECB more aggressive the rates easing keep growing ahead of the meeting. Economists predict that the ECB may disappoint the market expectations for the upcoming meeting.

 

The downward trend may show weakness in the short term. Trades are held below the strong resistance level of 1.0630. While the level is holding back the price growth from the level of 1.0550, the downward trend potential is still preserved.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0630, the next one is at 1.0730.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0420 soon.

 

 

Pound (GBP)

 

General overview

 

The UK GDP 3rd quarter estimate is 0.5% q/q + 2.3% y/y that is completely unchanged. The Sterling did not grow because of the UK and Germany government bond yield reduction.

 

The upward correction that was formed from the support level of 1.5040, gradually began to turn towards the bearish trend. 

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.5040, the next one is 1.4970. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5150.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We expect the 1.5040 line break that will open the way to the level of 1.4970.

 

 

Yen (JPY)

 

General overview

 

The Japanese inflation data at the level of 0.2% came in worse than the consensus forecast year on year which had a downward pressure on the Japanese currency. The "investors’ risk appetite growth" is a threat to the yen as a funding currency.

 

The dollar bullish sentiment is dominating. Bulls did not have enough strength at the same time to break through the strong level of 123.20.

 

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is 121.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.20, the next one is at 123.80.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We suppose the pair will go to 122.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 121.30.

 

 

Franc (CHF)

 

General overview

 

The dollar and the franc remained mostly at the same place as on Thursday when the US markets were closed to celebrate Thanksgiving Day. The sales remained sluggish until the end of the day as the US markets were closed early on Friday, extending the holiday lull. However by the end of the day the pair slightly increased.

 

The pair remains stable near the recent highs. The USD/CHF pair consolidated above the strong resistance level of 1.0280. The Swiss franc upward trend is stable, despite the strong divergence on the volumes.

 

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.0280, the next one is 1.0190. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0370.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement shows. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We advise to long with the target – 1.0370.

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

в[цвет=#00BF00][ед]"Форт финансовых услуг"- фундаментальный и технический анализ[/у][/цвет][/б]

 

в[цвет=#0000BF]11.12.2015[/цвет][/б]

 

[б][я][цвет=#FF8000]фундаментальный анализ[/цвет][/и][/б]

 

[я]в США опубликованы заявки на пособие по безработице отчет. По данным Департамента труда США количество первичных заявок по безработице стало больше, чем прогнозировали 269 тыс. увеличившись до 282 тысяч. Мы полагаем, что пара USD/коррекционная фаза подошла к концу. США порадовали трейдеров с розничных продаж сильные данные ликуют "медведей" на короткий. США и Германия доходности государственных облигаций выросли, что увеличило инвестиционную привлекательность в американские активы. Рынки ожидают, что FOMC повысит ключевую ставку на 0,25% 16 декабря, которые укреплены ФРС и ЕЦБ денежно-кредитной политики дивергенции, что будет способствовать снижению единой европейской валюты. Пара евро/доллар показал снижение по итогам торгов вчера.

 

СК доходности государственных облигаций выросли по отношению к их аналогам США и Германии, которые поддержали спрос на Британские активы. Банк Англии, заседание по монетарной политике проходит. В Великобритании инфляция снизилась на 0,16% за первые десять месяцев текущего года, который составляет 0.62% меньше, чем в тот же период в 2014 году. Рынок труда демонстрирует устойчивую позитивную динамику одновременно: уровень безработицы за первые три квартала этого года снизился на 0,4% до отметки 5.3% при среднем росте прибыли за третий квартал составил 3% в годовом выражении. Пара фунт/доллар немного снизилась.

 

Японцы и США дифференциал доходности государственных облигаций повысило инвестиционную привлекательность в американские активы, поддерживая спрос на доллар. Высокотехнологичный сектор был лидером падения в Северо-американских и европейских фондовых рынков, а лидером роста стал "защитным" коммунального сектора. Однако после непродолжительного роста пара доллар/иена снизилась.[/я]

 

[имг]http://savepic.su/6710848.jpg[/имг]

 

[б][я][цвет=#FF8000]Технический анализ[/цвет][/и][/б]

 

в[цвет=#00BF00] наЕвро (EUR)[/у][/цвет][/б]

 

в[цвет=#0000BF]Общий обзор[/цвет][/б]

 

Евро краткосрочной коррекции цикл подходит к своему логическому завершению. Пара евро/доллар оказалась одним из главных бенефициаров продаж рискованных активов, связанных с сырьевыми товарами рынок рухнет. Пара была также поддержана в Германии данные по торговому балансу. В ноябре торговый профицит составил 20,8 млрд. евро в Еврозоне по величине страна против прогноза в 20 млрд. и предыдущего значения на уровне 19,2 млрд долл.

 

Цена найти первую поддержку на 1.0925, следующий-1.0800. Цена является обнаружение первого сопротивления на уровне 1.1050, следующий-на 1.1150.

 

Есть подтвержденный и сильный сигнал на покупку. Цена находится выше облака и выше Чинкоу Спан. Линия tenkan-Sen показывает восходящее движение и Киджун-сен показывает горизонтальное движение. Восходящее движение будет до тех пор, пока цена находится над облаком.

 

Индикатор MACD находится в положительной территории. Цена коррекции.

 

[цвет=#0000cc][б]торговые рекомендации[/б][/цвет]

 

После поддержки уровня 1.0925 прорыва нисходящее движение будет продолжено. Потенциал снижения целевых показателей двух уровней поддержки: 1.0800 и 1.0730

 

[имг]http://savepic.su/6693440.jpg[/имг]

 

[цвет=#00cc00][А][Б]Фунт стерлингов (GBP)[/б][/у][/цвет]

 

[цвет=#0000cc][б]Общий обзор[/б][/цвет]

 

Пара уверенно двинулись на север, имея слегка корректируется от максимумов после резкого падения нефти после недавней коррекции, что ранее Поддерживаемые фунта роста. Великобритания опубликовала свой Октябрьский торговый баланс. Торговый баланс ожидается -11,83 V от -9,70 в.

 

Цена является нахождение первой поддержки на 1.5150, следующий-на 1.5100. Цена является обнаружение первого сопротивления на отметке 1.5200, следующий-на 1.5300.

 

Есть подтвержденный и сильный сигнал на покупку. Цена находится выше облака и выше Чинкоу Спан. Линия tenkan-Sen показывает восходящее движение и Киджун-сен показывает горизонтальное движение, и сформировать “Золотой крест”. Восходящее движение будет до тех пор, пока цена находится над облаком.

 

Индикатор MACD находится в положительной территории. Цена консолидируется.

 

[цвет=#0000cc][б]торговые рекомендации[/б][/цвет]

 

Мы можем ожидать торгуется во флете между уровнем сопротивления 1.5200 и 1.5150 уровень поддержки.

 

[имг]http://savepic.su/6747715.jpg[/имг]

 

[цвет=#00cc00][А][Б]иена (JPY)[/б][/у][/цвет]

 

[цвет=#0000cc][б]Общий обзор[/б][/цвет]

 

Нисходящий тренд продолжается, на фоне "рисковых активов" позиции резки. Пара USD/JPY упала жертвой статус иены как валюты-убежища. Помимо роста доллара и индекс Nikkei макроэкономическая статистика поддержала иену. После ВВП последние благоприятные данные Японии, опубликованные в машины и оборудование отчете о заказах, которые замедлили в ноябре снизится до -17.9% Г / Г от -22.9% ранее.

 

Цена найти первую поддержку на 121.30, следующий-120.40. Цена является обнаружение первого сопротивления на уровне 122.40, следующий-в 123.20.

 

Есть подтвержденный и сильный сигнал на продажу. Цена находится под облаком и под Чинкоу Спан. Линия tenkan-Sen показывает нисходящее движение и Киджун-сен показывает горизонтальное движение и сформировать “мертвый крест". Нисходящее движение будет до тех пор, пока цена находится под облаком.

 

Индикатор MACD находится в отрицательной территории. Цена уменьшается.

 

[цвет=#0000cc][б]торговые рекомендации[/б][/цвет]

 

Подход до уровня 122.40 может привести к отскок цены вниз. Потенциал отскока целями являются поддержка уровня 121.30, 120.40.

 

[имг]http://savepic.su/6739523.jpg[/имг]

 

[цвет=#00cc00][А][Б]Франк (CHF)[/б][/у][/цвет]

 

[цвет=#0000cc][б]Общий обзор[/б][/цвет]

 

Франк остановил нисходящее движение. Швейцарский Национальный банк оставил процентные ставки без изменений на отметке 0.75%. Франк показал разностороннюю торговлю против других основных валют после публикации процентной ставки.

 

Цена найти первую поддержку на 0.9850, следующий-0.9750. Цена является обнаружение первого сопротивления на отметке 0.9960, следующий-на 1.0100.

 

Есть подтвержденный и сильный сигнал на продажу. Цена находится под облаком и под Чинкоу Спан. Линия tenkan-Sen показывает нисходящее движение и Киджун-сен показывает горизонтальное движение и сформировать “мертвый крест”. Нисходящее движение будет до тех пор, пока цена находится под облаком.

 

Индикатор MACD находится в отрицательной территории. Цена коррекции.

 

[цвет=#0000cc][б]торговые рекомендации[/б][/цвет]

 

Мы можем ожидать рост в направлении 0.9960 в дальнейшем мы ожидаем падения к 0.9850 и 0.9750.

 

[имг]http://savepic.su/6733379.jpg[/имг]

 

 

с [url=[/url" style="color: rgb(0, 119, 204);" target="_blank">https://www.fortfs.com/en][имг]http://www.picshare.ru/uploads/140726/3UKf6za6n5.jpg[/имг][/url-адреса]

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

04.01.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

There was a mixed trend at the Forex market last trading week of the year, some pairs even showed an increased volatility in their trading. The dollar resumed its growth against its competitors, having received support from the positive sentiment in the stock markets as well as strong data from the US. In general, traders’ activity continued to fall on the eve of the New Year holidays.

 

The dollar purchases alongside with the stock markets positive sentiment and favorable statistics from the United States became the driver for the EUR/USD downward dynamics resumption. In particular, prices, contrary to the predictions, kept the growth rate of 5.5% and the consumer confidence in December jumped to 96.5 versus the expected 93.8 and the previous value of the index at 90.4. The recent figures again indicated that the US economy is in great shape and is ready to tighten monetary policy further even more rapid pace.

 

As for the pair GBPUSD, the pound decreased amid the Cable fundamental weakness due to the recent sharp deterioration of macroeconomic data (inflation slowdown, the GDP decline), which has taken away from the markets hope for a rate hike by the Bank of England next year. The pair pound/dollar slightly corrected upwards by the end of the trades.

 

The USDJPY showed the most restrained dynamics. The pair’s movement is limited by the resistance around 121.30 and the support at 120.40 area. However, even strong statistics from the United States was unable to revive the pair.

 

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

General overview

 

The German government bonds rose relative to their US and the UK counterparts which increases the investments attractiveness in European assets and thereby supports the demand for euro. Nevertheless, the euro slightly fell.

 

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

 

The price action is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

When the price consolidates below the level of 1.0925 it may go to the level 1.0800.

 

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

We see a mixed background of the British currency. The 10-year UK government bonds decline relative to their US and Germany reduces the British assets attractiveness adding a downward pressure on the pound. The Cable situation is worst among the major currencies on the current US dollar corrective phase. The pound increased only by the end of the trades.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4700. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4830, the next one is at 1.4900.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We suppose the pair will trade in a flat between the levels of 1.4760-1.4830.

 

 

Yen

 

General overview

 

The world's leading stock indices show a rising trend alongside with the high-yield cross-rates in the currency market. Such dynamics indicates growth "risk appetite" among investors which is traditionally a negative factor for the yen as a funding currency.

 

The first support resides at 120.40, the next is at 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.40.

 

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The buyers need to break above 121.30 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 

 

 

Franc

 

General overview

 

The franc strengthened against its main rivals. According to forecasts the Switzerland GDP may increase by 1% in 2015 and 1.6% in 2016. The National Bank of Switzerland policy also has a huge impact the franc dynamics. The ongoing EUR/CHF intervention limits the franc growth as well.

 

The first support lies at 0.9850 and then at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

 

The price action is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9960. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0100

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

05.01.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The last trading day of 2015 was marked by the dollar strengthening against its major rivals. Most of the traders left the market earlier to celebrate the Catholic Christmas and the New Year. The weak US data did not stop the EUR/USD from growth. The weekly unemployment benefits rose by 20K to the mark 287 000. In economic news, the Chicago Fed business activity index came in at 42.9, not much short of the forecast of 49.8.

 

In the middle of last week, the ECB reported about the November private sector lending growth, the rate was 1.4% in annual terms which is the highest level in the past year. Monday trading was revived due to the planned statistics. The euro area countries published the manufacturing business activity. Germany surfaced the inflation report: 0,3% y/y and -0,1% m/m against forecasted 0,6% y/y и 0,2% m/m. The Germany PMI in manufacturing business came out at the level 53,2 against forecasted 53,0. The pair euro/dollar closed the trades with a decrease.

 

The UK published money supply report 0,4% m/m against the forecasted 0,5% m/m. The Britain PMI in manufacturing business came out at the level 51,9 against forecasted 52,7. The 10-year UK government bonds yield is growing relative to their counterparts from the US and Germany, which supports the demand for the pound. However, the trades on the pair GBP/USD closed with a decrease.

 

The US and Japanese government bond yield differential exceeded the level of 200 pp which increases the US assets investment attractiveness. The pair USD/JPY showed a growth by the end of the day.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The euro lost 10% over the past year while it declined by 12% in 2014. In December, the pair returned a part of the losses due to the November two key Central Banks careful actions - the ECB refrained from a large-scale stimulus, the Fed raised its rate by 0.25%. The fact that the US regulator began the monetary policy normalization while the rest of the world central banks including the ECB continue their soft policy. This factor is likely to continue to provide support to the greenback in the coming year.

 

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0800 and 1.0730 soon.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The Cable is still under strong "bearish" pressure amid the UK economy weak forecasts and the negative prospects for the Bank of England interest rates growth.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4700, the next one is at 1.4630. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4830.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4760 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4830.

 

 

Yen

 

General overview

 

Traders bought the yen as a safe haven when the Chinese market fell more than 7%, while Japanese's stock index lost 3%. The Japanese industrial sector business activity index showed growth to 52.6 in December from 52.5 in November. The US published the manufacturing sector PMI from ISM report at the level of 48,2 against the forecasted median at 49,0.

 

The first support resides at 119.20, the next is at 118.40. The first resistance stands at 120.40, the next one is at 121.30.

 

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

 

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 120.40, 121.30.

 

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

06.01.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The China stock market drama had a direct impact on the currencies behavior. The China manufacturing sector business activity surfaced the PMI fall to 48.2 vs. expected of 48.9. Ten consecutive month of falling triggered a new wave of concern about the Chinese economy state and its potential impact on global GDP. This fact, coupled with the Middle East conflict escalation where Saudi Arabia broke off diplomatic relations with Iran, provoked a strong wave of risk aversion.

 

The December Germany preliminary inflation data showed weak results: 0,2% against the forecasted median 0,3%. The USA statistics is disappointing as well. The manufacturing sector ISM has been below 50% for two consecutive months, indicating a business activity slowdown. The index fell to its lowest level since June 2009 in December. The pair euro/dollar showed a decrease.

 

The UK November number of mortgage approvals in 2015 amounted to 70.4 thousand which is 0.77% more than in the previous month and 18.81% more than in November 2014. That is the mortgage market which is the main growth driver in the real estate sector and in view of the above-described positive momentum we expected the construction sector PMI within the consensus forecast which may provide some support for the Cable. The data came out at the level of 57,8 against the forecasted 56,0. However the pair pound/dollar decreased by the end of the trades.

 

The world stock indices collapse strengthened safe-haven assets. The main beneficiary was the yen. Still the followed USD buying changed the alignment of forces in the foreign exchange market. Nevertheless, after a slight correction the pair fell again.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

In addition to a dollar general direction movement change the Germany inflation report has brought a bit of negative when the consumer prices growth index slowed to + 0.2% y/y from 0.3% while traders expected it to accelerate to 0.4%. The euro area inflation report was the key event of Tuesday that came out worse then forecasted median. In addition, Germany has surfaced labor market indicators: -14K and -6K.

 

The first support lies at 1.0730 and then at 1.0630. The first resistance stands at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen showы a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0630, 1.0550.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

Neither the British statistics bright data nor the weak US figures did not help the pound which is showing the downward trend still expecting the Bank of England rate hike in the coming year. We expect the Bank of England credit conditions report this week.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4630, the next one is at 1.4560. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4700, the next one is at 1.4760.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

After the support level of 1.4630 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4560 will be opened.

 

 

Yen

 

General overview

The yen rally against the dollar and the euro was stopped on Tuesday when the Chinese stock market started a recovery though traders are still not sure that the Chinese market reached its bottom. The yen still may strengthen expecting the BoJ monetary policy easing in the short term. The United States weak data may support the yen due to risk aversion. The United States published the New York ISM at the level of 716,6.

 

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.20. The first resistance stands at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

 

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The upward bounce potential targets are 119.20, 120.40.

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

07.01.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

Investors keep buying the dollar. Trading volumes are higher than in the same days last year. The euro area employment data pleased traders. The Spain unemployed number decreased by 55.8 thousand. vs. expected of 52.6 thousand. The same index is 55.8 thousand in Germany. The forecast was 52.6 thousand. The pair euro/dollar showed a slight growth.

 

The UK debt market is now set against the bulls: the 10-year UK government bonds yield is reduced relative to their US and Germany counterparts reducing the Cable investments attractiveness.  By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar decreased.

 

Now investors are more alarmed of the Chinese economy state than six months ago, having started buying the dollar. China conducted a currency intervention at 19.9 billion dollars to support the yuan. The operation was a success - the dollar fell from 6.54 yuan to 6.52. As about the pair dollar/yen – it showed a slight decrease.

 

The commodity currencies again suffered from the Chinese economy weak data releases. Australian and New Zealand dollars fell most of all.

 

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

We noted the bearish sentiment prevalence. The weak November euro area inflation data contributed to the US and Germany government bonds growth reducing the investments attractiveness in European assets putting pressure on the single European currency. The trades were determined by the services ISM (55,3 against the forecasted median 56,0) and the US Energy Department releases (-5,085М against the forecasted median 0,439М).

 

The first support lies at 1.0730 and then at 1.0630. The first resistance stands at 1.0800, the next one is at 1.0925.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

After the support level of 1.0730 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0630 will be opened.

 

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The published positive construction sector PMI was unable to provide strong support for the pound. That is a signal of the strong sellers presence. The Markit published the third report - this time we got the service sector data. This indicator has been showing the moderate growth for the last two months, however, if we want to see a strong demand for the pound the indicator final value should be higher than 56.6 n. The release came in at the level of 55,5 that put pressure on the pound.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4630, the next one is at 1.4700.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4560 soon. The next target is the level of 1.4480.

 

 

Yen

 

General overview

 

The lack of "risk appetite" among investors continues to contribute to the Japanese yen demand as a funding currency. The high-yield cross-rates have been showing weakness from the beginning of the trading week. We believe traders are not interesting in new carry trade orders.

 

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.20. The first resistance stands at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

 

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We may expect the flat trades between the levels of 118.40 and 119.20.

 

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

08.01.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

There was a quite volatile trading day yesterday. The dollar showed mixed dynamics against its major rivals. Traders still do not prefer to risk as they do have concerns to worry about. They are global economy slowdown, low oil price and the Chinese economy.

 

Soft Fed meeting minutes weakened the US currency. The regulator expressed his concerns about the inflation, the strong dollar which triggered the greenback sales. The US published the initial jobless clams (277 000 against the forecasted 275 000).

 

The euro got some support after the risky assets sales. However, the US strong labor market data gave new strength to the dollar. According to ADP, the December private sector employment level increased by 257 thousand. These figures are much higher than the forecast and the previous value of 192 thousand. However after the USA new statistics the pair euro/dollar strengthened.

 

A series of weak economic data postpones the Bank of England rate hike which exacerbates the divergence rate of the BoE and the Fed. That is another long-term negative factor for the Sterling. The trades closed with the pair GBP/USD decrease.

 

The USD/JPY accelerated its decline after the Fed meeting minutes’ publication. The price moved further down. The risk factor always plays into the Japanese yen hands.

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

Traders received the Germany retail sales and factory orders data. The euro zone is to publish the labor market (the unemployment rate is 10,5% against the forecasted 10,7%), the consumer confidence (at the forecasted median -0,6), the retail sales (-0,3% against the forecasted median 0,2%), the economic sentiment (-2,0 against the forecasted median -3,0) reports.

 

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

 

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

 

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.0925. After breaking 1.0925 the buyers may go to 1.1050.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The strong dollar does not leave the choice to the pound which has to develop the downward momentum. The EUR/GBP dynamics played the negative role for the Cable having grown within the day. The UK statistics continues to disappoint traders. The UK surfaced the house prices minor report that came in better then forecasted median 9,5%(y/y) and 1,7%(m/m).

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4630, the next one is at 1.4700.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4630 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4700.

 

 

Yen

 

General overview

 

We believe that the raw materials low prices as well as the Chinese economy state shall keep the interest to the yen. Today the market will pay its attention to the USA Non-Farms.

 

The first support resides at 117.80, the next is at 117.00. The first resistance stands at 118.40, the next one is at 119.20.

 

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We may expect the flat trades at the level of 117.80.

 

 

Franc

 

General overview

 

The Swiss franc rose against the dollar on the wave of the total US currency sales after the FOMC protocols publication. Meanwhile, the Fed's representative Fisher predicts that the rate will be increased by 4 times in 2016. He noted that the Fed currently has no information how many times the rate would be changed in 2016. However, the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank raised its GDP growth forecast in Q4 on Wednesday.

 

The first support resides at 0.9960, the next is at 0.9850. The first resistance stands at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

 

The indicator shows a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and is above the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman